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On September 2, BTC fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762. It fell 2.4% in 24 hours, with over $115 million in long positions liquidated in one hour. It just rose 25% in August, marking the third best August performance in history. But on the first day of September, it reverted to its original state. Why the drop? Three major negative factors crashed down at once— Geopolitical Negatives: US-Iran military conflict escalates. On September 1, US forces launched airstrikes on IRGC targets inside Iran, prompting Iran to retaliate with missiles. Trump warned that "the next round of strikes will be even stronger." Inflation negative: Brent crude rose 4.5% in two days, with a cumulative increase of 51% for the year. On September 2, Brent broke above $95 per barrel. Oil prices pushed the global bond market to the edge—US Treasury yields soared to 4.798%, the highest since January 2025; Germany's 10-year government bond yield hit its highest level since 2011, and Japan broke above 3% for the first time in 30 years. Policy Headwinds: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to 66.9%. After Wash-Jackson Hole's speech, this figure nearly doubled. Triple critical hits, all happening simultaneously. $76,454: Recent low; if holded, it would form a short-term double bottom. $77,000-78,000: Current range of volatility. BTC was smashed down from here today. $80,000: August high; a breakout requires macroeconomic support—that is, positive CPI data + cooling rate hike expectations. If 76,000 is breached: the next support is in the 73,000-74,000 range. Further down, 72,000 is the 200-day moving average. In short: 76,000 is the current bullish bottom line. If it can't hold, then 74,000 or even 72,000 will need to find support. Already profitable long positions: Move your stop loss up below 75,500. Don't let floating profits turn into floating losses. The market can give you profits, or you can take them back in one second. Trapped in long positions: Assess position size. If leverage is too high, reduce positions. Wait for the CPI data on September 11 before making decisions. Don't risk your life in front of the data. Short positions wanting to enter: Suggest waiting for CPI data to come in, or test a light position near 76,000 for a long position. Now is not the time to go all in. Contract players: Current volatility is extremely high. Dropped 2.4% in just one hour, liquidated over 115 million trades. Recommended to reduce leverage to below 3x. Survival is more important than making money. September 11→ CPI data released. This is the first key turning point. If CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike could soar to 80%. September 15-16 → Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. The ultimate variable. If the rate hike is implemented, what will the market do? If it doesn't increase, how will the market move? No one knows. But you can prepare in advance. September was the weakest month in BTC's history. In the past 13 Septembers, 8 closed lower, with an average return of -2.97%, the worst of the year. When the stock rose 25% in August, everyone thought the bull had returned. On the first day of September, it fell 2.4%, and everyone started asking again, "Is it about to crash?" The market hasn't changed. What has changed is your mood. The three major negative factors are real. But what does it mean when all the negative news has been exhausted? It is an opportunity. The word 'crisis' means danger on one side and opportunity on the other. The key is—are you ready? $BTC $CL $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温, energy inflation is under strain