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BTC never closed higher in August during the bear market—but pay attention to a few details:
1️⃣ BTC rose 13% in August 2023
2️⃣ August 2024 saw a 21% decline, but 2023 was an exception
3️⃣ Historical laws are not prophecies
Patterns exist, but the background and declines vary each year. #从降息到加息, the Fed's Divergence is fully $BTC One of the most noteworthy topics in the crypto world recently is Saylor's rare public backlash. Over the weekend, rumors spread online that Strategy had approved a new $5 billion $BTC sell quota. The news spread quickly, and Saylor stepped in to put out the fire, saying this wasn't new news—it was something already announced in the capital management framework on June 29, and it was hyped up into news.
This explanation itself isn't a lie, but what's even more intriguing is the next part. He immediately emphasizes that the company has never had a policy of never selling, and even deliberately separates his personal holdings from the company's treasury operations, saying, 'I've never sold a single satoshi, but Strategy is a listed company, not my wallet.'
Compared to his classic statement about never selling Bitcoin, the contrast is quite significant. No wonder people immediately dug up old videos where he said he wouldn't sell, only buy.
On the factual level, SEC filings from August 3 show that Strategy did sell 1,638 $BTC last week, with an average transaction price of $63,957, reducing its position to 842138 BTC. This is the second substantial reduction since selling 2,225 BTC in early July, and it has not been a new purchase for over five consecutive weeks.
What's even more painful is the cost structure. The company's current holding cost is $75,419 per coin, with the current price just over 63,000, meaning that unrealized losses are the norm rather than an accident. Combined with the poor Q2 financial report itself, net loss of $8.22 billion, earnings per share of negative $24.45, far below the market expectation of $3.07, and revenue slightly below expectations.
My personal view is that buying and selling $BTC itself is not a problem. Any institution doing capital management has the right to operate flexibly. The real issue is that the gap between narrative and behavior is magnified in the open market. For a company driven by faith to drive a stock price premium, once holders start questioning whether the founder's words are consistent, this trust cost is harder to repair than the unrealized losses on paper itself.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved On July 29, Solana raised the maximum block calculation unit from 60 million to 100 million, an increase of 66.7%. This adjustment provides more parallel processing space for unrelated transactions, reducing the 12% block occupancy rate of a single popular account from the original 20%. However, the maximum computation per block that can be written to the same account remains at 12 million CU, and the account data increment limit remains at 100MB, meaning the congestion bottleneck of popular accounts has not been fundamentally resolved. If a large number of transactions need to be written to the same popular account (such as high-volume DEXs or clearing contracts), they are still limited by this limit. The official does not provide actual comparison data on transaction confirmation rates, fees, block propagation, or replays before and after the upgrade.From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's disagreements are fully revealed
Just a few months ago, the entire market was still abuzz with discussions about when the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates. Traders bet early on on liquidity easing, with stocks and risk assets pricing in the benefits of rate cuts in advance, assuming that once inflation is overcome, easing will arrive soon.
In just a few months, the tide of events has completely reversed. The market is no longer discussing when rate cuts will occur, but whether rate hikes will resume. The internal cracks within the Federal Reserve are now blatantly visible to everyone.
At the most recent rate meeting, rates themselves remained unchanged and appeared calm, but the voting results said it all. Nine votes chose to keep rates unchanged, but three votes were against it, and three regional Fed chairs directly called for an immediate 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three votes in the same direction have appeared, whereas the previous meeting was unanimously approved by all members.
What's even more intriguing are those who voted against it. Kashkari, previously seen as a dovish, has now sided with supporting rate hikes. This is no longer just a simple factional struggle between hawks and doves; the stubbornness of inflation is breaking down the original divides of positions.
The root of these differences comes from contradictory signals in the real economy.
The reason for raising interest rates was straightforward: inflation had not truly been brought down. Rent and service sector prices remain firm, while geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, with costs being transmitted downward along the industrial chain. Large-scale AI construction brings new demand, which in turn is driving up prices. They judge that the current interest rate level is insufficient to suppress inflation, and if they continue to wait, inflation expectations may resurface, which will come at a higher cost later. It is better to raise rates one more level early.
Those who choose to hold their positions are concerned about their financial capacity. High interest rates have persisted for a long time, putting pressure on both companies and real estate. If the U.S. recklessly increases further and aggressively raises rates, it could directly drag the U.S. economy into recession. They want to wait a little longer, get more data, confirm the direction of inflation, and don't want to gamble on tightening tighter.
The current Federal Reserve no longer draws a clear roadmap for the market. Chairman Wash directly abandoned the traditional forward-looking guidance, no longer telling everyone how interest rates will move in the future. They neither promised to raise interest rates nor maintain the status quo, leaving all options to future data. This approach essentially dumps uncertainty directly onto the entire market.
The bitmap also puts internal tears on the surface. Nearly half of the members believe further rate hikes are needed within the year, with a few even predicting two hikes; Others believe that maintaining the status quo is enough; Only a very small number of people still hold onto expectations for rate cuts. Without a unified consensus, everyone's judgments vary greatly.
The market's reaction was the most honest. After the meeting, the probability of a rate hike in September was rapidly increased, US Treasury yields climbed steadily, US stocks plunged late in the session, and risk assets were collectively under pressure. Funds that previously traded rate cuts have hurriedly turned back, repricing the reality of "higher rates, longer duration."
Many people wonder: why is there still discussion about interest rate hikes when inflation has already eased? A decline in inflation does not mean inflation has reached the target. The current problem is that inflation is falling too slowly and still far from the 2% target. If external shocks like oil prices or tariffs occur, there is a risk of a rebound at any time. On one hand, there is fear of inflation returning; on the other, the economy is crushed by high interest rates. The Fed is caught in this dilemma.
The upcoming meeting in September will be a true watershed. At that time, a brand-new dot plot will be updated, and the members' real interest rate expectations will be laid out on the table. Inflation data and oil price trends will directly determine whether they pull the trigger for rate hikes.
For all types of assets worldwide, this means that expectations for cheap money are temporarily set aside. US Treasury yields continue to rise, risk-free yields increase, and risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure. As long as the Fed remains deeply divided, it will be difficult for the market to see a one-sided rally, and volatile maneuvering will become the norm.
Ultimately, the Fed's disagreements are essentially real-world dilemmas. Trying to suppress stubborn inflation but not shattering economic resilience with one's own hands is risky on both sides, with no perfect answer. #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public 🚀 Is Google One of the Most Underrated AI Plays?
It feels like Google ($GOOG) is being overlooked in the AI conversation.
Just six months ago, Google was widely viewed as having one of the world's leading frontier language models. While competitors have dominated recent headlines, Google has continued strengthening the AI capabilities across its ecosystem.
The next phase of AI isn't just about building the smartest model—it's about integrating AI into the products people use every day.
That's where Google has a unique advantage:
📧 Gmail
🌐 Chrome
🔍 Search
📄 Docs & Workspace
📱 Android
☁️ Google Cloud
▶️ YouTube
With billions of users already inside its ecosystem, Google can deploy AI at massive scale without relying solely on attracting new users.
If AI becomes increasingly commoditized and the cost of intelligence continues to fall, distribution and ecosystem effects could become more valuable than the models themselves. Google's reach across consumer and enterprise products positions it well for that scenario.
For long-term investors, $GOOG remains one of the strongest large-cap AI businesses, combining world-class research, extensive infrastructure, and unmatched product integration.
The next chapter of AI may be won not only by the best model—but by the company that embeds AI into everyday life most effectively.
$GOOG $NVDA $MSFT
#AI #Google #ArtificialIntelligence #BigTech #Stocks #Cloud #Gemini #InvestingLike pulling, huh? All I have is you, precise top-down escapes.
---
Family, look at the screenshots.
BTC long position, +62.08%, precise take-profit.
Entered at 63,680, closed at 64,139, just stuck near the highest point.
Not long after the consolidation, the market began to pull back.
He said he would flee without hesitation.
---
😎 Why do you dare to buy so many orders?
After Palantir's earnings report exploded yesterday, I've been keeping a close eye on the market.
BTC is slowly pushing up from around 63,000. Although it moves slowly, it remains stable.
I combined several signals and decided to go long:
First, #Palantir营收增93%, rose 13% in after-hours trading.
Yesterday's after-hours gain of 15% directly boosted sentiment across the entire AI sector. As a risk asset, BTC is highly likely to follow a short-term rally.
Second, #亚马逊市值破3万亿 50 billion bet to win the first round.
Amazon's AI investment is beginning to pay off, and market confidence in tech stocks is restored.
Third, #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
Previously, the market overpriced in rate hike expectations, but now, seeing such deep internal divisions, they actually breathe a sigh of relief.
So I decisively went long at 63,680, targeting above 64,000.
Then the market gave the answer—a precise hit.
🔍 This round of going long is not just betting on direction
I have a core judgment:
Currently, there is a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears on the macro side.
On one hand, the bearish logic I mentioned before—high US Treasury yields, US-Japan joint foreign exchange purchases (tightening liquidity), and the $100 billion SPCX lock-up (potential selling pressure)—still hold up, suppressing BTC's upside potential.
On the other hand, the realization of AI commercialization is forming a hedging force.
Palantir's financial report is not an isolated case. AMD is closing its earnings report tonight, SpaceX is also about to deliver, with Circle closing out.
If AMD's earnings also exceed expectations, the entire AI-storage-crypto chain will be reignited.
Moreover, the Fed's public disagreements have eased the urgency for short-term rate hikes, providing a breathing room for risk assets.
So the current situation is: negative news is pressing down, but good news is hedging.
At times like this, you can't go short or go too long; you can only follow short-term sentiment.
🎯 What do you think comes next?
Short term: If BTC holds above 64,000, there is a chance to break through to 65,000.
If AMD's earnings report exceeds expectations, combined with Palantir's residual momentum, 65,000 is not impossible.
Mid-term: SPCX unlocking is an unavoidable hurdle, with liquidity shocks at the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars bound to put pressure on the market.
So after taking profits from this long position, I won't rush to re-enter.
Let's wait for AMD's earnings report to be released and see how the market reacts.
💬 To be honest
I was quite decisive about getting long orders.
It's not that I'm pessimistic about the market, but previous liquidations taught me that profits are real, and floating gains are just numbers.
After the price was sold, it did surge, reaching a high of 64,249.
But I didn't regret it, because I knew I had eaten the most certain part.
The rest is left for those with greater courage to earn.
I'll make another move when the next opportunity arises.
---
Family, have you kept up with this order?
If you think BTC can keep surging, deduct 1; if you think a pullback is needed, deduct 2.
The next wave of opportunities will continue to strike with precision. 🚀
$BTC #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
I'm Ci Ge, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have completely laid their cards on the table. The rate hikers and rate cut advocates have revealed their cards simultaneously, moving in completely opposite directions—a scene extremely rare in recent years.
The rate hikers are represented by Logan, Hammark, and Kashkali, who believe inflation has been above 2% for over five years, current policies are insufficiently restrictive, and rates should be slightly higher. Currently, only Waller publicly advocates for rate cuts, warning that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly, and supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Chairman Wash did not comment on the direction, saying the 2% target remains unchanged and decisive action will be taken if necessary, rejecting forward-looking guidance. The September path will be determined by the two pre-meeting CPI reports.
Market pricing is still clearly biased toward rate hikes, and rate cut proposals have yet to be priced in. In other words, the market is fully siding with Logan, ignoring Waller's warnings. Divergence within the Fed, combined with the market's one-sided bet on rate hikes, means any lower-than-expected CPI data could trigger a sharp correction. Under the rate hike logic, BTC is under short-term pressure, but the narrative of fiat credit damage is intensifying; Under the rate cut logic, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release.
For SanDisk's short positions, the high interest rate environment suppresses the valuation of tech stocks, with the storage sector, as a high-beta product, bearing the brunt. As long as rate hike expectations do not cool, the valuation ceiling for tech stocks cannot be raised, and the rebound space for storage stocks is limited. Continue holding short positions at 1324.87, move stop-loss up to 1320, targeting 1200 to 1220. Near 1288 is a short-term resistance level; the macro background for short positions remains unchanged, waiting for the next round of decline. CPI will be the key variable in the direction of judgment.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look $SNDK $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
🔥 During earnings season, the 'Big Three' take over, three tracks, three different destinies
This week's earnings season reached its climax, with three papers laid out simultaneously—AMD (AI chip challenger), SpaceX (the largest IPO in history), and Circle (the first stablecoin stock). Three completely different tracks, three completely different report cards, all hide the core main theme of the market in the second half of the year.
🖥️ AMD: Is NVIDIA's "Challenger" Qualified?
AMD's Q2 earnings report will be released tonight (August 4), and market expectations are already high: revenue of $11.3 billion, +47% year-on-year; Net profit was 1.75 billion yuan, doubling.
But the problem is, AMD's valuation is now maxed out. A market cap of 790 billion, TTM P/E ratio of 159 times—this is not about buying performance, but about buying the narrative of the "NVIDIA challenger."
The real highlight of this financial report is not revenue figures, but whether the data center business can accelerate further. Q1 data centers have already led the bulk of growth, but the mass production progress of Helios chips and the MI400 series' ability to encroach on NVIDIA's B-series are the key factors determining whether AMD can turn from a "backup" to a full-time position.
On the other hand, the PC business is a hidden mine. Global PC shipments are recovering weakly. If data centers exceed expectations and PCs lag behind, stock prices may rise first and then fall. On the other hand, if both sides collapse, AMD might really challenge NVIDIA's moat.
My view: AMD's quarterly data is very likely not bad, but "good" and "good enough" are two different things. A 159x P/E means the market wants something "impressive," not "decent." Tonight's after-hours trading will be volatile, so those betting on earnings reports, remember to fasten your seatbelts.
🚀 SpaceX: A $1.95 trillion market cap—can it hold up?
SpaceX's IPO on June 12 was priced at $135, peaked at $225, and has now dropped to $149, a 34% drawdown.
This earnings report (expected to be released this week) may be the most closely watched new report of the year. Why? Because the valuation controversy over SpaceX is outrageously large.
Let's start with the fundamentals:
- Full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, net loss of $4.94 billion
- Q1 2026 revenue for the quarter was 4.694 billion yuan, with a net loss of 4.276 billion yuan
- The only profitable company is Starlink (with 11.4 billion in revenue in 2025), while rocket launches and xAI are burning through cash
- Institutions unanimously predict: full-year profitability is only possible in 2028
Now let's look at valuations:
- Current market capitalization is $1.95 trillion, with an expected 2026 price-to-sales ratio of 52 times
- Nvidia's PS is only 24 times, Microsoft's is 10 times
- Investment banks have highly diverged target prices: optimists see $205-300, conservatives only offer $58-78, and extreme bears favor $30
What's even more troublesome is that at the end of August, shares of employees and early investors are about to be unlocked, and in Q4, the number of shares circulating has surged several times, so the selling pressure is imaginable.
SpaceX's story is indeed sexy—Starlink has 10 million subscribers, $22 billion in government contracts, and Starship's Mars dream. But a market value of 1.95 trillion means the market is pricing it as a "space Apple." The problem is, Apple earns $100 billion a year, while SpaceX loses over $10 billion each year. This gap cannot be bridged by storytelling.
My view: short-term bearish. The wave of unlocking + ongoing losses + valuation bubble—these three major obstacles weigh heavily on the head. As long as the financial report isn't 'beyond expectations,' the stock price is likely to remain under pressure. For the long term, you can wait for valuations to return to a reasonable range before reconsidering.
💵 Circle: The "regulatory dividend" for stablecoins has arrived
Circle's Q2 earnings report will be released before the market opens tomorrow, August 5th, making it the most easily undervalued among the three reports.
Key Highlights:
- USDC circulating supply: about 77 billion in Q1, slightly reduced to about 73 billion in Q2, with reserve yields supported by interest rates
- Distribution costs: Signed an agreement with Hyperliquid in May and renewed with Coinbase in August. Will the revenue share be reduced?
- Biggest catalyst: On July 10, it obtained a national trust banking license from the Comptroller of the Currency, potentially generating an additional $20 million in annual revenue. More importantly, Circle officially entered the core of the regulated financial system
The stablecoin sector is undergoing a critical turning point. The advancement of the CLARITY Act, the implementation of banking licenses, and the start of traditional financial institutions adopting USDC—these are not short-term hype, but structural dividends. Circle's management maintains a multi-year forecast of 40% CAGR for USDC. Although the market is skeptical, regulatory breakthroughs are indeed breaking the ceiling.
My view: Circle has the highest "certainty" among these three. There is no valuation bubble like SpaceX, nor the competitive pressure from giants like AMD. The stablecoin narrative is shifting from a "crypto speculative tool" to a "global payment infrastructure," with Circle, as the issuer of USDC, being the most direct beneficiary of this transformation. If tomorrow's earnings report shows USDC's circulating supply stabilizing and rebounding, the stock price may be surprised.
🎯 Three test papers, one main storyline
Looking at these three financial reports together, it's quite interesting:
- AMD stands for "AI hardware involution"—the chip sector is becoming increasingly crowded, valuations are rising, and the margin for error is decreasing
- SpaceX stands for "narrative overdraw"—when a good story is told, the market starts demanding real profits
- Circle stands for "Regulatory Implementation"—the crypto industry is moving from a gray area to compliance, and value revaluation is just beginning
The main theme of the market in the second half of the year may not be "how much more AI can rise," but rather "which tracks can turn stories into performance, and which tracks need to pay off." Under the pressure of "repaying performance debt," AMD and SpaceX will experience significant volatility, while companies like Circle, which have regulatory moats and relatively stable performance, may instead become a safe haven for capital.
The above is purely personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Of the three financial reports, which one do you think most about? Let's talk in the comments.8.4 afternoon
Today, the market saw a recovery phase with a first drop followed by a rally. BTC reached a low of 62,268 in the morning session, then surged sharply, rebounding to around 64,239. It is currently fluctuating at 63,800, Ethereum hit a low of 1827, then rebounded to 1898 and is currently fluctuating at 1865. All these are early trading sessions that exhausted the bears' strength and triggered a rebound recovery
Looking at the four-hour chart, Bitcoin had been falling all the way before, but this rebound has returned to a key mid-term price, indicating that the bears' selling power has temporarily run out, but it hasn't broken through the previous high. It's not a complete reversal and strengthening, and overall it's still in a state of recovery after the drop. Ethereum followed the Bitcoin trend in tandem, rebounding from low levels, but after reaching the mid-term resistance level, it couldn't rise or hold steady. The overall direction is also oscillating and recovering, not yet at the point of a one-sided rise
On the short-term one-hour chart, after BTC reached 64,200, it stopped surging. Now it's oscillating at high levels, with heavy selling pressure near 64,400 above, and support below around 63,000. The rebound momentum is somewhat slow, so it will likely first step downward, solidify support, and then consider further upward scents. Ethereum is similar. After rebounding to the short-term resistance level, it pulls back. Currently, it is oscillating above the 1850 support level, with resistance between 1880-1890. After the rebound, it will first fluctuate and digest; only by holding support can it continue to rise
Afternoon trading advice:
$BTC Mostly on pullbacks around 63,000-63,400; look toward the 64,200-64,600 range
$ETH Mostly on pullbacks near 1845-1855; look toward the 1885-1905 area
$SNDK 美日联手托日元，但军火库里的子弹可能不够用。 Evercore ISI最新报告指出，一项平时几乎没人用的美联储流动性工具，反而可能成为市场考验美日干预决心的“放大镜”。 600亿 vs 530亿：数字游戏 这个工具叫 FIMA 回购便利（外国和国际货币当局回购机制），允许海外央行用美债作抵押，从美联储借入最高600亿美元的短期美元，避免直接抛售美债冲击市场。 按日本央行数据推算，7月30日单日干预规模约530亿美元，已经非常接近600亿的额度上限。Evercore策略师直言，市场会死死盯着这个“天花板”来测试美日的干预决心——如果市场确信干预需要更多弹药，而这个账户的额度就是极限，那空头只会更有恃无恐地押注。 硬币的另一面：为何还要用？ 明知有上限，美日还是选择动用FIMA，是为了避免更坏的情况。日本持有约1.14万亿美元美国国债，是最大的海外美债持有国。如果日本为筹集干预资金直接抛售美债，可能进一步推高本已处于19年高位的30年期美债收益率（5.23%），反过来加剧美债市场的动荡。 这本质上是一场走钢丝：用FIMA借钱，上限600亿，撑得了一时，撑不了一世。长期借下去，市场会怀疑当局还有一件事就是关于$TSLA 网上最近有一种说法在流传,说马斯克说过人形机器人如果造不出来就直接砍掉这个项目,我特意去查了一圈,没找到这个说法的可靠出处,大概率是以讹传讹或者记错了场合,这里纠正一下。
真实情况其实是反方向的。马斯克在最近几次财报电话会上的表态,一直是在给Optimus加码而不是设退出条件。今年4月的一季度电话会上他说过,Optimus会是特斯拉史上最大的单品,甚至可能是有史以来最大的单品,长期销售规模他自己估算能到10万亿美元级别。更实打实的动作是,特斯拉已经把Fremont工厂里Model S和Model X的产线直接停掉,腾出空间专门用来建Optimus的产线,目标是年产能到百万台级别,这是真金白银在加码,不是留退路。
唯一算得上接近坦诚的表态,是他在电话会上承认过Optimus的量产是特斯拉做过最难的制造爬坡,因为这条供应链完全是从零开始,没有任何现成体系可以复用,这属于承认执行难度,跟造不出来就砍项目完全是两回事。所以传闻本身站不住脚,建议看到这类说法的时候多查一下原始出处再转发,财经圈里这种断章取义或者张冠李戴的说法传得特别快。
$TSLA #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
The final highlight of the earnings season is the release of three consecutive earnings reports from tonight to tomorrow morning. AMD, SpaceX, and Circle represent three main lines: AI chips, space economy, and stablecoins, respectively.
AMD was the first to go up after the market closed tonight.
The market expects Q2 revenue to be 11.31 billion, up 47% year-on-year, with earnings per share around $1.05. Data centers are the biggest highlight, with expected revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year, including 4 billion in server chips and 2.5 billion in AI chips. AMD's stock price has already doubled this year, but has also pulled back nearly 20% from its June high. The options market bets on about 10% of stock price fluctuations after earnings reports. AMD has often exceeded expectations in its history, but this time the market is not just about "beating expectations"—it's about whether data center growth can support AI chip valuations.
SpaceX faced even more pressure after the same day's market open.
The market expects Q2 revenue to be 6.87 billion, a significant increase from Q1's 4.7 billion. However, the adjusted loss per share was around $0.25. Starlink is the only profitable sector, contributing 3.26 billion in revenue and 1.19 billion in operating profit in Q1, with Q2 expected to reach 3.82 billion.
The real trouble came on August 6. 911.5 million internal shares are to be unlocked, and currently only about 600 million shares are in circulation. Short sellers have accumulated $24.6 billion, and the stock price has fallen from the listing high of 225 to below 110. The earnings numbers themselves may not be that important; the real highlight is how management calms market concerns about the lock-up reopening.
Circle closed before trading on Thursday.
The market expects Q2 revenue of $717 million, with earnings per share of around $0.16. USDC circulating supply dropped from 77 billion in Q1 to around 73 billion, which is the biggest concern. The shrinking circulating supply means the base of reserve income is narrowing. The market is asking: Is the growth of stablecoins peaking?
The stories of the three companies are actually connected in one thread. AMD sells chips to AI companies, SpaceX's AI data center rents these chips, and Circle's stablecoin provides liquidity for the entire crypto ecosystem. AMD depends on whether AI chip demand can support valuations, SpaceX will see if Starlink's cash flow can keep pace with burning, and Circle will see if USDC's growth is slowing.
Each company answers different questions, but the answers all affect the same market.Are there like-minded people with similar holding costs? The current market trend is truly beyond expectations.
The market briefly dipped to 1826 points, and as the price approached the position return line, the price quickly rebounded to 1868.
I hold 50 short Ethereum positions, with a cost set at 1783. Currently, I have an unrealized loss of 4,214 units of the underlying asset on paper. As long as the market drops by more than 80 points, this position can be smoothly unevened and exited.
This round of Ethereum price rally is not driven solely by technical trends; the core logic comes from market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions: the U.S. side signaled to restart negotiations and cancel planned military actions, but relevant parties quickly clarified that direct bilateral communication had not yet begun, only third-party coordination regarding strait navigation. There were clear differences in information between the two sides, and the easing of tensions had not yet materialized.
After the news broke, commodity prices retreated, and overall risk aversion cooled simultaneously. U.S. stocks and highly volatile alternative assets absorbed incremental funds, and Ethereum completed a rapid rebound between 1826 and 1868. Bearish positions briefly saw hope for a breakout but then came under pressure again.
The impact cycle of geopolitical competition is not yet over. If subsequent negotiations are hindered and risks in shipping channels resurface, commodity prices and risk aversion sentiment are likely to reverse, and only then will bearish positions have a chance to recover their books.
At the same time, the advancement of overseas digital asset regulatory legislation provides long-term support for Ethereum. The new law clarifies the division of responsibilities among regulatory agencies, platform access registration, investor rights protection, anti-money laundering constraints, and detailed rules on public officials' holdings. For Ethereum categories with high institutional participation, the clearer the regulatory rules, the stronger the willingness to allocate funds for the long term; However, the bill is currently only in the draft stage and has not yet been officially implemented. Different parties and financial institutions still have differing opinions, and short-term market trends are mostly driven by expectations. Whether it will be smoothly implemented remains highly uncertain.
On August 1, about 21.25 million tokens were unlocked for the underlying BEAT, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply. The market generally predicted that large unlocks would bring selling pressure, but after the unlock, the price rose over 16% against the trend, with a large amount of early bearish funds passively exiting the market. Currently, funds are mainly speculating around two major narratives: first, the AI agent economic ecosystem layout; second, the revenue buyback and destruction mechanism. The short-term selling pressure from large unlocks is temporarily offset by positive narratives, but new circulating tokens objectively exist. Once market sentiment weakens, existing tokens will gradually be released, causing huge price fluctuations and unpredictable rhythms, making it not suitable for chasing highs for now.
The underlying SNDK has recently continued its upward trend, with an intraday gain of over 5%, prompting funds to speculate on the financial report data disclosed on August 5. Its total revenue for the previous fiscal quarter was $5.95 billion, a 97% increase quarter-on-quarter, with data center business up 233% quarter-on-quarter, with large-capacity storage demand for AI servers as the core growth theme. This quarter, institutions' revenue expectations range is $7.75–8.25 billion. The market no longer meets the usual performance targets, and most expect data to exceed forecasts. If earnings fall short of expectations, concentrated profit-taking at high levels could trigger a rapid pullback; With the upcoming financial report release on August 5 and the investor exchange meeting on August 13, the range of fluctuations will significantly increase.
Personal follow-up market prediction strategy: Geopolitical news continues to fluctuate, regulatory bills maintain the expected speculative pace, and Ethereum is likely to first shake out in the 1860–1900 range; If the 1898–1900 range cannot be effectively broken, the market is likely to pull back and test the 1840 support, and in extreme cases, approach the 1800 level again. Looking forward to the market dropping over 80 points to break even and exit, the current position is already very limited to the risk control warning line.On Aug. 3, spot ETF flows remained mixed:
🟢 $BTC: +$170.09M inflows
🔴 $ETH : -$11.42M outflows
🟢 $XRP: +$1.15M inflows
Bitcoin continued to attract fresh capital, while Ethereum recorded modest outflows. $XRP also finished the day with positive net inflows.
#DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH [🧱ETH Consolidates at 1864, Bulls and Bears Stalemate Awaiting a Breakthrough]
ETH has been stuck near 1860 for several consecutive days, with a fluctuation of less than 2%, and the market has entered a highly contracted and wait-and-see state.
A mix of warm and cold news: Last week, BitMine increased its holdings by 10,399 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5.8 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, just one step away from the 5% target; Meanwhile, a whale withdrew and staked 112,000 ETH from Gemini within three weeks. However, over 26,000 ETH short positions were liquidated, indicating that bear pressure remains, and the sustainability of ETF inflows remains to be seen.
Technical Perspective: 1860 is a clustered chip zone, with resistance above at 1890-1920 and support below at 1830-1840. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, and the turning point is approaching.
Short-term strategy: Stay on stock and move less before volume breakout; hold above 1900 and be long; exit below 1830 to observe and wait. #从降息到加息, Fed Divides Fully Revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Trade, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% $BTC $SOL in After-Hours It feels like Google ($GOOG) is being overlooked in the AI conversation.
Just a few months ago, Google was widely recognized for having one of the strongest frontier AI models, and it still hasn't unveiled its next flagship release.
The next phase of AI isn't just about building better models—it's about integrating AI into the products people use every day.
That's where Google has a unique advantage.
From Search and Chrome to Gmail, Android, Workspace, and its broader ecosystem, Google has an unmatched distribution network to bring AI into billions of daily interactions.
Even if open-source AI becomes dominant and the cost of intelligence keeps falling, Google's ecosystem and network effects could remain a significant competitive edge.
For long-term investors, $GOOGL still looks like one of the strongest core holdings for gaining exposure to frontier AI.
The AI story may only be getting started.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 要允许自己在没行情的日子里赚不到钱，允许自己休息下来，而不是被别人的暴富故事刺激的做不擅长没把握的交易，这只会让你亏钱，等属于你的机会来了，你却没有本金了，交易中最痛苦的事莫过于此。$PLTRB
熊市就走走玩玩，想进步的就看看交易书籍充实自己，你不需要时时刻刻赚钱，而是等待机会赚一笔大的钱。$AAOI
记住熊市不亏钱已经赢了百分之九十五的人！$OPNI'm honored to be included in Creator Weekly. This article actually came up with an idea from my recent macro market observations. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
At that time, seeing WTI crude oil fall 8.68% in a single day, many market interpretations focused on "rising ceasefire expectations and risk relief," but I think there may be another easily overlooked point here:
The market trades in expected changes, not outcomes that have already occurred.
So instead of simply writing "Oil prices fall, good for risk assets," I want to further analyze the transmission relationships between geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policies behind oil prices.
The biggest challenge in writing this article was actually how to avoid making the complex macro logic too complicated. Because factors like oil prices, war, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and BTC may seem independent, but in reality, they are connected through liquidity.
What I most want to express in this article is:
Investing should not rely solely on short-term sentiment triggered by a single piece of news; more importantly, it is important to understand why the market reacts this way and whether this logic can be sustained.
For example, the drop in oil prices has indeed eased inflationary pressures, but a ceasefire does not mean the risks are completely over. So rather than chasing the rally, I pay more attention to the following two signals:
One is whether geopolitical risks continue to cool, and the other is whether the Federal Reserve will send more dovish policy signals.
This is also the approach I've consistently maintained in my recent market writing—not just retelling news, but trying to break down the logic behind events so everyone can see the connections between different assets.
Being included in the weekly report after publishing it is also an encouragement for me. I hope to continue recording market changes in this way and share my observations with more friends.#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
亚马逊市值破3万亿了。
8月3号收涨4.6%，财报后两个交易日累计涨超20%。驱动只有一个——AWS单季收入422亿美元，同比增37%，订单积压4960亿美元。
但这里面有个动作比数据本身更值得琢磨。
亚马逊对OpenAI那笔500亿美元的投资已经全额到位了，换回来的条件是OpenAI八年内在AWS支出1000亿美元。
500亿换1000亿，听着是笔好买卖。但细看条款——持有形式是C轮优先股，要等OpenAI完成IPO或其他流动性事件才能转换。1000亿云订单目前也还是承诺，不是已经落地的收入。
这跟币圈有些玩法很像。一个项目拿了头部机构的投资，同时承诺把一部分代币或者收入流锁定在某个生态里。双方各取所需，机构拿到低价筹码，项目方拿到资源支撑。但最终能不能兑现，取决于项目本身能不能跑出来。
这事对币圈的启示是什么？
AI巨头之间的绑定正在从“合作”变成“投资锁定”。500亿换1000亿，本质上是把客户锁死在自己生态里。这跟币圈头部平台通过投资+生态绑定锁定优质项目的逻辑是一样的。
但前提是——你得先有AWS那样的收入底盘，才能玩得起这种“以投资换订单”的游戏。没有真实收入的加密项目，想复制这种模式，基本没戏。
我的判断很简单：亚马逊破3万亿的核心驱动力，是AWS的收入质量，不是那笔500亿的投资。对加密市场来说，这个逻辑同样适用——真正能撑起估值的，永远是收入，不是故事。
$BTC $SNDK $ETH $BTC $ETH 隔夜地缘冲突降温 油价回调 10年期美债收益率回落 美股全线收涨创阶段新高 但BTC只勉强在63000附近窄幅震荡 冲64000就被按回来 涨幅明显滞后股市 盘面走得很清楚 利好在定价 但加密这边的买入意愿明显比美股弱 这种背离说明资金还没有完全回归风险偏好 ETH在1860附近横着 主流山寨分化 只有Avax这类少数标的在带 整体没有形成合力 过去24小时爆仓2.4亿 空头平仓力度更强 未平仓合约小幅抬升 资金有小幅多头布局迹象 但力度很弱 不足以推动突破 消息面 Coldcard被盗资产接近9000万 短期压制冷钱包板块情绪 MSTR持续抛售BTC的预期也压着上方空间 宏观上联储官员维持利率水平表态 机构上调年末加息预期 市场还在等通胀数据给方向 总结一句 地缘短期缓和给了情绪修复窗口 但上面抛压没消化完 单边趋势条件不成熟 操作上依托支撑和压力区间高抛低吸 别追涨杀跌 盯紧晚间美盘资金流向和美债收益率波动 方向没出来之前 仓位比判断重要#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，Tips for Turning US Stock Markets into Crypto: How do pre-market, after-hours, night sessions, and 24-hour trading come about? U.S. stock trading hours will worsen until 24 hours. Just look at its history and you'll understand: 🔹 1985: The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq, only had morning and afternoon sessions, with no after-hours trading. Just like A-shares. 🔹 1991: Trading volumes in London and Tokyo surged sharply, but not in the same time zone as the US stocks. If trading hours are not extended, global funds can only go to local exchanges. So Nasdaq took the lead in launching ECN (Electronic Communication Network) trading after hours, extending it by one hour (just business competition). 🔹 1990s~2000: With frequent financial reports, economic data, and geopolitical conflicts, these events often occur during Asian or European sessions. If U.S. stocks do not offer after-hours trading, there is a large risk of gap-ups, leading to continuous orders flowing out. Therefore, major exchanges have gradually expanded after-hours trading hours, with only one core goal: to retain orders and prevent diversion of orders. (Once everyone understands, they're starting to grab users.) 🔹 2024: A historic step — U.S. stocks officially launch 24-hour trading (overnight trading). 🔹 2026: 24-hour trading will become mainstream and standard. 📌 The core reason is simple: 24×7 trading in cryptocurrency and forex markets has become the global standard. If you don't provide it, users vote with their feet, and both orders and liquidity are transferred away.Saylor sold 1,638 BTC, but the real danger isn't that $100 million, but Strategy's "money printing machine" starting to flip
Many people are still debating: Has Saylor betrayed the belief of "never selling coins"?
But the most noteworthy thing about this coin sale is not faith at all, but the capital cycle on which Strategy relies on for its rise, which is shifting from positive feedback to negative feedback.
Over the past week, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC, earning about $105 million, reducing its position to 842,138 BTC.
The proceeds from the sale are used to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase securities, and replenish US dollar reserves.
The company previously authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC if necessary, for dividends, interest, and buybacks.
On the surface, this batch of BTC accounts for only about 0.19% of total holdings, which is far from enough to exert sustained selling pressure on the market.
Therefore, looking solely at the number of coins sold is almost meaningless.
What truly matters is: Strategy was the first to clearly demonstrate that the cash costs generated by its issued financial products may ultimately need to be repaid by BTC itself.
Strategy's strongest business model in the past is an extremely beautiful positive cycle:
MSTR carries a premium relative to BTC's net asset value
→ Financing by issuing shares and preferred shares at high prices by the company
→ Use the margin to buy more BTC
→ BTC per share increases
→ The market continues to offer higher valuations
→ Refinancing and repurchasing coins.
In a bull market, this model is similar to a perpetual motion machine that "continuously buys BTC with Wall Street funds."
But when MSTR's mNAV premium disappears, or even enterprise value falls to near BTC asset value, issuing common shares at low prices dilutes shareholders;
Although preferred shares can still be used for financing, they require continuous payment of high cash dividends.
Strategy previously even raised STRC's annualized dividend payout to 12%. (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)
So the cycle begins to reverse:
BTC declined
→ MSTR premium contraction
→ Decline in equity financing efficiency
→ Preferred stock prices are under pressure and financing costs are rising
→ The company needs to pay dividends and interest in cash
→ Selling BTC to supplement cash
→ The market further lowered MSTR valuations.
This is the real signal being released from this round of coin selling:
Strategy is no longer just a simple BTC hoarder, but a BTC financial institution that requires active management of liabilities, dividends, and liquidity.
This does not mean Strategy will immediately be liquidated, nor does it mean BTC is about to crash due to the sale of 1,638 coins.
The company still holds over 840,000 BTC, accounting for about 4% of Bitcoin's final supply; The scale of this sale is very small compared to its holdings. (The Wall Street Journal)
But the market must reprice it.
Previously, investors bought MSTR with "leveraged BTC + never selling coins + continuous accumulation."
What investors are buying now is:
BTC price exposure
+ Complex preferred stock structure
+ Fixed dividend obligations
+ Debt interest
+ Risk of management timing BTC buying or selling.
Therefore, my judgment is:
The short-term impact on BTC is sentimental, while the medium- to long-term impact depends on whether selling coins becomes normalized; For MSTR itself, it represents a permanent downgrade of valuation logic.
Next, don't just focus on how many tokens Saylor sold; focus on three indicators:
First, can MSTR's mNAV relative to BTC's net asset value return to a clear premium? Without a premium, the machine for buying additional coins cannot operate efficiently.
Second, can STRC stabilize back to around the $100 face value? If high dividends still cannot support prices, it indicates that the market is demanding higher risk compensation.
Third, are dollar reserves increasing, or are they being continuously consumed by dividends, interest, and repurchase reposs? If cash reserves continue to decline, BTC will gradually shift from a "permanent reserve asset" to a "last source of liquidity."
So, the most memorable sentence this time is:
Saylor isn't suddenly pessimistic about BTC; rather, Strategy's capital structure has started requiring BTC to generate cash flow for it.
1,638 BTC are not important.
Importantly, the machine that once only consumed BTC has now shown its outlet to the market for the first time.According to the latest 8-K file, just last week MicroStrategy sold another 1,638 $BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out $105 million.
The selling price is significantly lower than the company's average holding cost of $75,419, which is a loss-making reduction. Of the proceeds from the sale, $52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $52.3 million for the buyback of $STRC.
In my July 7 tweet, I speculated that MicroStrategy might be a strategic shift aimed at "liquidity management." Its arbitrage potential lies within its own capital structure.
For example, when the market price of a 12% annual interest STRC deviates significantly from par value (100), selling BTC and buying back the note yields a much higher certainty than holding marginal BTC.
Now, MicroStrategy is taking concrete actions to confirm this speculation.
Just a few days ago, during its earnings call, the company surprisingly stated that under its current capital management plan, it could sell up to about $5 billion worth of BTC. This is four times higher than the $1.25 billion mentioned in the board mandate plan announced on June 29.
Whether intentional or not, Michael Saylor never mentioned "selling BTC" in his tweet yesterday. Only the increase in dollar reserves and the repurchase of STRC were emphasized.
Perhaps his heart was conflicted and complicated. After all, he probably hasn't forgotten his once solemn promise to 'never sell coins.' Now he just wants to play dumb?Bitcoin: Native, why $40k won't be the bottom. Just technical facts.
I emphasized this back in March. Now is a great time to release again.
Almost every sane trader on CT sees $40k as a bottom target. This is understandable—all trading concepts are based on historical data logic, and past cycle bottoms have been near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That's where $40k came from.
But here are some facts that the framework overlooks:
1. In any past bear market, prices have never traded cleanly below the previous cycle's high. The 2021 peak was at $65k.
2. Returns decrease sharply with each cycle. 2017→2021 high: +250%. 2021→2025 high: +82%. The amplitude of deep Fibonacci drawdowns that created that level no longer exists.
3. Price behavior has undergone a structural transformation. During this cycle, the market never traded as a whole—liquidity never rotated from BTC to other assets. Mathematical models of old cycles are being applied to markets that no longer operate like old cycles.
So as early as January, I reached a simple conclusion: HTF support/resistance levels and liquidity are more important here than any other indicator.
Tracking liquidity, BTC has only two clear value zones: the $75k-55k range, and the $30k-25k range. Between them is the 2021 price range and a gap, where the price only crossed vertically once and never established value there.
That's the whole argument. BTC will not bottom out at $40k, because $40k is not a level but a void. Either hold $55k, or the price must dig all the way down to $29k—the 2021 range low plus gap filling.
There is no middle ground. This is exactly why the $40k faction will wait at a level where prices are respected without reason.Bitcoin still sits within a broader downtrend, but multiple lower- and mid-timeframe indicators are beginning to suggest a potential bottom may be forming.
Price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average and continues to hold above the 200-week moving average—a level that has historically separated bull and bear markets.
The context is encouraging. Despite headwinds such as Michael Saylor's $BTC sale, the Coldcard security incident, and ongoing quantum computing concerns, Bitcoin has continued grinding higher rather than breaking down. That's often the kind of resilience seen near major lows.
That said, several key resistance levels still need to be reclaimed before a sustained bull run can be confirmed. These include the multi-year trend channel, the previous cycle high around $69K, and the 3-day 50 MA.
The most likely scenario remains a period of consolidation and volatility before a decisive breakout. Even so, the overall outlook is becoming increasingly constructive.
Looking ahead, the biggest potential catalysts remain geopolitical developments involving Iran, progress on the CLARITY Act, advances in the quantum narrative, and the U.S. midterm elections. Everything else is likely to have a smaller impact on the broader trend.The Fed's internal split moving into public view is the more important development this week, not the earnings cycle. Three dissents at July's meeting was already unusual; now the hawkish minority is speaking openly outside the committee room. Markets have shrugged it off so far, which is itself data.
BTC holding above $63K while Strategy trims another 1,638 coins is the cleaner read on underlying demand. The prior sell in late July was 3,500-plus; the scale is shrinking, and price is not breaking. That suggests real absorption, not just speculative float. The AMD and SpaceX prints this week and whatever tone the hawkish Fed members set will test whether the tape stays this steady or the bid finally thins out.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbit🚨 Unitree Technology is going public! $TSLA Is the Tesla Optimus panicking? 🤖📉
Family, big news! Unitree Technology, a domestic humanoid robot "unicorn," officially announces IPO progress, with inquiries on August 5 and subscription on August 10! This is not only a major event for the A-share market, but also a tremor in the global robotics community! 💥
Many people ask: What does this mean for Tesla and Musk next door? Today, let's dig into the ins and outs! 👇
⚔️ 1. Price War Warning: 99,000 vs 30,000?
What is Yushu's most ruthless thing? It's the ultimate value for money! Their G1 series directly pushed the price down to 99,000 RMB (about $14,000).
● Tesla's Current Status: Although Musk claims to bring Optimus under $20,000, it is still in the PPT and factory testing phases, and mass production costs remain a mystery.
● Impact: Unitree told the market with real cash at low prices: "Humanoid robots can be affordable!" "This directly imposes a huge tightening spell on Tesla's future pricing strategy for the Optimus. If Tesla sells at a high price, why should the market buy it?
🏭 2. "China Speed" Forces "First Principles"
Unitree took just over 100 days from acceptance to registration and validity, demonstrating the formidable iterative capability of China's supply chain.
● Impact on Tesla: Musk's much-prized "first principles" and vertical integration capabilities now face a formidable opponent. Unitree has already achieved small-batch shipments and commercialization (working in factories, even into households), while Tesla is still in the "dreaming" stage.
● Conclusion: This will force Tesla to accelerate the mass production of Optimus and cannot continue to refine it slowly; otherwise, the Chinese market may lose its advantage.
🔋 3. The supply chain's "spare tire" becomes the "main character"
Unitree's IPO funds were mainly used for capacity expansion and R&D, meaning that domestic core components (reducers, sensors, motors) will see a large-scale ramp-up.
● Capital Barometer: The capital market will re-examine the humanoid robot industry chain. Previously, everyone only focused on Tesla Chain (Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, etc.), but now Unitree Chain's valuation logic has changed (such as Zhongda Lide, Green Harmonic, etc.).
● Potential collaboration? In the future, to reduce costs, will Tesla consider sourcing high-value Chinese components? Unitree's rise proves the feasibility of this path.
💡 To sum up
Unitree Technology's IPO is not a "catastrophe" for Tesla, but rather the "strongest catalyst"! ⚡️ It broke Tesla's "solo show" in the humanoid robot field and marked the beginning of the era of "dual giants vying for supremacy." For us consumers, the biggest benefit is the big tech competition and accelerated technological iteration, with prices coming down! 🎉Quantum alert is once again in full swing! Cramer plans to clear out its BTC holdings, sparking a major industry-wide security debate
Odaily Planet Daily reports that CNBC's well-known host Jim Cramer has publicly stated his plan to sell all his Bitcoin holdings. The core concern driving his decision is that quantum computing may break through Bitcoin's underlying security mechanisms within about three years.
These remarks are not baseless claims. The root cause comes from an interview with IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna on July 30, warning the market that quantum computing is expected to pose a substantial challenge to modern elliptic curve cryptography systems in the next three to four years.
Industry panic continues to ferment, with the trigger tracing back to a major paper released by Google Quantum AI in March this year. Research team recalculates attack threshold: the number of physical qubits required to crack Bitcoin's cryptographic algorithm has been significantly reduced, with an estimated scale of less than 500,000, only one-twentieth of the earlier prediction.
Simply put, the technical threshold for effective attacks has been proven by scientific research to be much lower than previously understood by the market.
We must objectively distinguish between theoretical deduction and real-world hardware:
Currently, global quantum systems are still stuck at the stage of hundreds to thousands of physical qubits, and logical qubits with error-correcting capabilities and stable availability are extremely scarce. There is still a huge engineering gap to building fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of stably executing Shor algorithms and cracking ECDSA signatures. Risk is a long-term gray rhino, not an immediately descending black swan.
However, a set of on-chain data deserves high vigilance from all BTC holders.
Research institutions estimate that about 30% of Bitcoin's supply, or 6 to 7 million BTC, remains in publicly key exposed addresses for a long time.
As long as public keys are permanently public on-chain, once mature quantum computers emerge, these assets will be exposed to theft risks first. This includes a large number of early P2PK old addresses, reuse wallet addresses, and Taproot address assets. Funds lying on these addresses is essentially a long-term bare escape.
Three layers of deep reflection in the current market
1. What do you think about Jim Cramer's remarks about liquidating?
Those familiar with the market know that the "reverse cramer effect" has existed for a long time, and his shortish views often serve as negative signals. But we shouldn't just laugh it off as a joke.
The greatest significance of this incident: quantum risk has officially left the cryptography forum and entered the mainstream financial media spotlight. More and more traditional investors are beginning to reassess the long-term security risks underlying Bitcoin, and capital risk appetite will be continuously disturbed.
2. Bitcoin's native mechanism has inherent shortcomings
When Bitcoin was born, the threat of quantum computing was not considered in its design. The entire signature system relies on the elliptic curve algorithm, which inherently has weaknesses against the Shor algorithm.
For the network to achieve quantum-resistant upgrades, a high level of consensus is needed across the entire network, and the pace of soft forks and protocol migration is extremely slow. Ordinary retail investors have two traditional ways to respond:
(1) Do not reuse wallet addresses; after transferring, replace with a new address to avoid permanent on-chain public keys;
(2) Gradually migrate assets to a quantum-resistant architecture system to proactively mitigate long-term risks.
3. The sector landscape is undergoing a new round of selection: who can solve the dual needs of self-custody + long-term security?
Recently, two major industry reflections have erupted in succession:
First, a vulnerability was exposed in the Coldcard hardware wallet, shattering the illusion of "absolutely secure hardware wallets";
Second, the long-term threat from quantum computing has surfaced, and the static coin hoarding model hides long-term security risks.
The market is seeking next-generation solutions: ensuring asset private keys are held by the owner without third-party custody, while also being future-friendly with the quantum-resistant upgrade route and allowing idle BTC to generate sustained returns.
This is also one of the most important incremental logics in BTCFi's long-term narrative. In the era of pure spot coin hoarding, problems are continuously emerging.
Market rational judgment
In the short term, the Quantum Risk rhetoric is a stir in sentiment and insufficient to push BTC out of its unilateral trend. Currently, the market is still anchored to multiple macro variables: the 30-year US Treasury yield, Middle East geopolitical conditions, and institutional BTC portfolio adjustments.
There's no need to panic and cut losses over a research paper or a financial host's speech, nor should we ignore the risks of long-term technological transformation.
Operating Approach:
1. Organize your wallet addresses and try to avoid storing long-term funds in old addresses where public keys are exposed;
2. Do not centralize large assets on a single carrier; hardware wallets and on-chain self-custody solutions should be distributed in a dispersed manner;
3. Long-term layout focuses on selecting BTCFi infrastructure with underlying security iteration capabilities and a native self-custody system.
Risk always belongs to those who rely on luck. The brewing period for storms is often long; preparing defensive strategies in advance prevents you from being caught off guard before the wave arrives.
$BTC $ETH $CORE
#量子计算 #链上安全 #BTCFi
⚠️ The content is for informational and viewpoint purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR $DOGE $SNDK $SKHYNIX $PLTR
After-hours surge 12%! Does the market think it's just a defense stock backed by the government?
The real breakout this quarter wasn't total revenue, but 'U.S. commercial revenue'—a 149% year-over-year increase, which is a direct 2.5-fold increase.
In the past, people laughed at AIP platforms as marketing talk, but this quarter, corporate client net revenue retention soared to 157% (meaning existing customers not only didn't leave but bought more). In a single quarter, 220 new contracts over one million USD were signed, with total contract value increasing 49% year-on-year to 3.37 billion.
While other software stocks were still struggling with "how to monetize AI," Palantir had turned it into a money-printing machine—using a five-day Bootcamp workshop to let clients directly produce usable AI results from their own data, compressing the traditional one-year procurement cycle into a one-week deal.
Don't just focus on government orders to watch this stock; the valuation ceiling has long been redefined by the business side.
$PLTR
#美股#AI變現#財報解讀#美股投資
157% net income retention vs. 71x P/E ratio—if you're a Palantir shareholder, would this earnings report make you want to increase your holdings, or do you think you should cash in first?Bitcoin dominance is like a hyena circling its prey. The pack is distracted by scraps, but the apex predator's eyes remain fixed on the real prize.
The alts are getting restless, with $ADA, $ZEC, $APT, $KITE, and $PUMP enjoying a 24-hour party. $ADA's 5.79% surge is nothing to sneeze at, but its flow patterns paint a more nuanced picture. Liquidity is trickling in, with a few notable exceptions.
$BTC = the anchor holding up the ship, but what's the cargo? $ETH is pulling in institutional inflows, amplifying market volatility. Meanwhile, $SOL's 3% daily range is a ticking time bomb, waiting to unleash chaos.
Don't get caught chasing last week's alts. Focus on the whales that control the flow.
"Your market narrative is only as strong as its weakest link."马斯克不愧是喊单之王
对“回过头来看，这将是一个绝佳的机会”
一句话我也认为从108拉到115
现在 $SPCX 的空头名义仓位约 236 亿美元 、约 2.06 亿股 ，约占自由流通股 32.2% ，已超过特斯拉的约 220 亿美元
空头眼前最确定的逻辑是
极小的流通盘，股票稀缺、价格被推高；解禁一来，股票供给迅速增加。
市场目前到底给了哪些业务估值？
1. Starlink：订阅用户、ARPU、企业/政府客户、卫星与地面网络扩张成本，决定其更接近稳定现金流业务还是持续高资本开支业务
2. 发射业务 ：发射频率和商业订单能否兑现为利润率，而非仅是技术能力
3. AI/算力叙事 ：若其 AI 或数据中心计划仍主要停留在远期愿景，市场可能降低“科技平台型公司”的估值倍数
4. Starship 的资本开支与商业化时间表 ：这是长期上行的最大期权，也是短期财务报表最容易产生争议的成本项AMD is about to release its earnings report, $AMD Q2 revenue of $11.3 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase. The market has fully priced in this forecast, but the core issue is whether the AI revenue from data center MI300 can exceed expectations to support risk appetite.
Combined with the recent PLTR-validated guidance pricing characteristics, current performance meets expectations and cannot continue to drive valuation premiums. Market positions are significantly more sensitive to subsequent AI chip revenue guidance than to overall revenue.
Event risk is transmitted through rapid segmentation of capital preferences, with long positions concentrated at a high level. If the commercial quality of MI300 falls short of expectations, the pressure of risk asset outflows will extend from individual stocks to the entire AI sector.
The scenario for the upside scenario is that data center GPU and MI300-related AI revenue significantly exceeded expectations after the increase, and the Q3 guidance maintains high growth. A variable to watch is the specific proportion of AI revenue in total $11.3 billion in revenue, with a failing signal being data center growth below 47% of total revenue.
The downside scenario triggered the MI300 sales guide, barely meeting the target, which led to a rapid stop-loss on long-position positions that had previously exceeded expectations. The variable to watch is whether sector risk appetite is tightening in sync with other high-valuation stocks, and the expiration signal is that after-hours trading volume quickly digests selling pressure and breaks through previous resistance levels.
The main logic fails if total revenue falls below $11.3 billion, but AI chip revenue surges alone. At that point, the market will shift from evaluating traditional data center business to purely revaluing AI commercialization.
In the next 24 hours, focus on the specific split data of data center GPU business in the 5 a.m. Beijing time earnings report on August 5, as well as the net capital flow of positions after the earnings announcement.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion was still not submitted #美伊重回谈判桌, and oil prices pulled back#CLARITYAct72Hours
The clock is ticking on Congress's biggest crypto legislation of the year. The CLARITY Act — formally H.R. 3633, the bill that would split U.S. digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC — was conspicuously absent from Monday's Senate floor schedule, which listed only a procedural vote on an unrelated spending bill. That's significant because the Senate leaves for its August recess around August 10, and under normal Senate rules, a cloture motion filed Wednesday, August 5 could produce a vote as early as Friday, August 7 — but that vote would only decide whether to end debate and proceed to the bill, not pass it outright. And that procedural vote alone needs 60 votes to succeed, meaning Republicans have to line up genuine Democratic support just to keep the bill alive before recess.
The bill already has real momentum behind it — it passed the House 294-134 back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026 — but talks have stalled over disputes involving government ethics rules and stablecoin rewards. The pressure campaign has intensified as the deadline nears: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly pushed the Senate to act, Grayscale has warned that delay threatens U.S. competitiveness in digital assets, and advocacy group Stand With Crypto says supporters have contacted lawmakers over a million times urging passage. Despite the noise, betting markets aren't optimistic — Polymarket's odds on CLARITY becoming law in 2026 have slid to the high-20s to low-30s percent range, down sharply from around 82% back in February, and Galaxy Research recently cut its own estimate from 50% to 30%. If the window closes without action, the bill's fate likely slides into September, right as the crypto industry looks toward the 2026 midterms for leverage. $BTC From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's installment phases are fully public
The market once unanimously bet on the Fed's continued rate cuts, but now policy expectations have completely reversed, the rate cut narrative has quickly faded, rate hike discussions have returned to the spotlight, and the Fed's complete policy path is gradually becoming clearer. The core of this round of expectations reversal lies in the stronger-than-expected inflation resilience and strong employment, combined with geopolitical factors pushing up energy prices, completely disrupting the previous easing timetable.
The current policy cycle can be clearly divided into four phases: the phase of warming up expectations for rate cuts, the wait-and-see period maintaining interest rates, hawkish statements to reshape expectations, and the game to restart rate hikes. The biggest change is that the Fed has weakened its fixed forward-looking guidance, making decisions entirely dependent on real-time data. The old "signaling in advance" model is gone, and market volatility will remain elevated for a long time.
At this stage, the divergence between bulls and bears is clear: bulls are betting on economic slowdown and persistent inflation decline, while rate hikes remain only verbal; Bears are wary that oil prices are driving a rebound in inflation, forcing the Fed to tighten again. In trading, avoid sticking to the first half rate cut mindset; Treasuries, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to be affected by interest rate expectations. Going forward, focus will be on CPI, PCE, and employment data. If inflation rebounds again, rate hike expectations will quickly ferment, tightening global liquidity conditions once more.
⚠️ Risk warning: These are personal market views only and do not constitute investment advice. #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed disagreements are fully revealed ⚡ $MMT (Momentum) — $0.158
$MMT is a typical case of a "storycoin" crash—plunging from an opening high of $6 to around $0.16.
🛡️ Support: $0.1620 is the tightly traded zone from three weeks ago. $0.1715 is the previous low. Further down at $0.0110 is the position early buyers are trying to defend.
🚧 Resistance level: $0.1850 is the intraday boundary between bulls and bears. After the breakout, the target is $0.1980.
🐳 On-chain market maker movements: 15 minutes plunged 12% to $0.1756, with a turnover of $74 million—bulls and bears were "bloodshot" at the 0.18 level. The thickness of the sell order at the order is 1.7 times that of the buy order, indicating "bear control." 24-hour correlation with BTC is 0.63, and with Nasdaq at 0.51—"more timid than anyone" during macroeconomic tightening. The 0.1718 low is just above the 200-day moving average, and the last three touches have rebounded at least 20%. With a total market value of about $35.65 million, it is a small-cap alt, with strong market control by major players.
📈 Positive news: The historical pattern of three times the 200-day moving average providing support; If macro sentiment improves (such as a rebound in rate cut expectations), it may follow BTC's technical rebound; From a high of $6 to $0.16, a drop of over 97%, the bubble has been significantly unleashed.
📉 Negative news: a typical scenario of "the story is finished, but funds run out"; Poor macro environment (US dollar index 105.5, crypto market net outflow $430 million); 78% probability of the Fed not cutting rates in June; Heavy positions carry significant risk; it is recommended to keep your position within 5%. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX reports are imminent, Circle is the finale
Palantir's first report confirmed the "guidance sets the price" rule, rising 15%. There are three reports left, who can replicate this?
🔴 AMD (around 5:00 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The key question is the quality of AI chips—whether MI300 can carve out a market share in data center GPUs. If it meets expectations but is not enough, AI revenue exceeding expectations is needed for a price increase.
(As long as the AI chip is released normally, AMD is guaranteed to rise)
🚀 SpaceX (around 4:30 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Stock price fell from 225 to 108, 20% below IPO price. Over $100 billion will be unlocked on August 6. To hold the price, they would need solid positive news like "moon landing this year"—but the probability is extremely low. The pressure is the highest certainty.
(According to market discussions, it will fall)
🟢 Circle (around 8:00 PM Beijing time on August 5, the finale)
Expected revenue of $714 million, tied to USDC scale and interest rates. USDC reserves have shrunk to 72.06 billion. Whether the volume shrinkage can be offset by high interest rates is key, and it is most likely to deliver a surprise.
(It depends on the hype, after all, most funds are currently in US stocks)
Who can replicate the 15% rise? AMD relies on AI exceeding expectations, SpaceX is almost impossible, Circle has the greatest possibility. The answer will be revealed tonight.
$AMD $SPCX $PLTR #BigTechEarningsWatch Palantir opened earnings week with a 93% growth print, raised guidance, popped 12%. Guidance is the ticket — beat without it and you get sold 📈
AMD after Aug 4 close: consensus $11.3B revenue, +47% YoY. Margins and AI chip demand are the real read. If AMD's AI numbers hold up, it puts more pressure on the "AI demand is fading" narrative 👀
SpaceX drops its first ever public-company earnings the same day. Aug 6 lockup of up to 911.5M shares right after — sell pressure and Starlink margin quality both under the microscope simultaneously 🚀
Circle pre-market Aug 5: consensus ~$714M, directly tied to USDC supply dynamics and rate sensitivity as reserves slip to $72.06B. Stablecoin economics are the story here 💵
Three very different companies, all reporting in a 48-hour window. Palantir already showed the market rewards guidance over revenue 🤔
AMD, SpaceX, Circle — which one has the most riding on this print for the broader crypto and AI narrative? 👇Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate announced this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on top.
In its place is the H.R.6500—a persistent resolution with absolutely no connection to encryption.
On August 7, the Senate adjourned.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—they haven't even reached the starting line.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is 27%.
At the beginning of the year, this figure was 82%. Kalshi gave even more aggressively—33%. Galaxy Research has cut the price directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent. The probability is even lower than guessing heads and tails by flipping a coin.
You think 72 hours is long? Come, let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedures:
First hurdle: Submitting a cloture application (motion to end debate), which requires signatures from 16 senators.
16 people. Sounds like nothing? But this is a request to "end the debate"—meaning you have to convince 16 senators to agree "enough arguing, just vote directly."
Second hurdle: Cloture voting, requires 60 votes.
100 senators, three-fifths. Even if the Republicans unanimously support it—53 seats—they would still need to bring in at least seven Democrats.
Seven people. These seven people have been stuck on the bill for two months.
The third hurdle: even if the cloture passes, you can still debate for another 30 hours.
30 hours. Only after the debate is done that a vote on "whether to enter the review" is "not to vote on the bill itself."
Even if the green light is clear, the cloture vote will take place as early as Friday (August 7).
And then? The meeting is adjourned.
The bill itself? The interrogation hasn't even begun.
Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit your Cloture application.
Thursday? It was too late. Friday? The meeting is adjourned.
So—if 16 people don't sign by Wednesday, the bill doesn't even have a chance to be "vetoed."
Directly stillborn.
Someone asked: After reuniting in September, can you solve this arithmetic problem?
The deputies did not return until September 14. And then?
There are less than two months left until the midterm elections.
By then, who will still be able to control your crypto bill? The councilors' minds are all focused on the election campaign.
Missing the August window means that after the September resumption, there will only be three weeks of meetings. What can three weeks do? Can you handle ethical clauses? Can it resolve the stablecoin yield controversy? Can it turn the tables for seven Democrats?
It's harder than getting Bitcoin to rise to 70,000 in a single day.
And don't forget—within the Republican Party, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have clearly expressed their opposition. The actual available votes were less than 51.
Still can't even gather 53 seats, and even bring in 7 Democrats?
What is the most critical bottleneck?
Not votes. It's not time.
No one really cares.
Last week, Grayscale was also urging the Senate to vote quickly. Finance Minister Besent made a public statement. Industry representatives have contacted Congress over one million times.
Is it useful?
As soon as Monday's agenda came out—there was nothing.
Both parties are still discussing ethical clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue tokens.
A 616-page bill, stuck in just a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto. The Democrats say you're making too much money, and we don't believe this bill. The Republicans say the terms can be changed, but voting should be arranged first.
Both sides are acting. The ones who get hurt are you holding positions.
To put it bluntly—
BTC is near $63,900 today. Panic and Greed Index 28 — "Fear."
Trading volume plunged 71%. Duokong dared not move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: is there still any chance for the bill?
But the problem is—the signal may never come.
If you still have a large amount of altcoins, bet on a wave of price surges after the bill passes—
You're betting on something that is 73% unlikely to happen.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted #FedSplitGoesPublic The Fed is openly split and the debate has shifted from "how much to hike" to "hike or cut" 👀
Hike camp: Logan says rates should be modestly higher. Hammack points to five straight years above 2% target. Kashkari backs a 25bp hike at September. The inflation argument 📈
Cut camp: Waller warns the job market could weaken faster than expected and backs a 25bp cut at the Sept 16-17 meeting. The only public cut call on the table 📉
And Warsh? Called 2% "unshakeable," refused to give any guidance, took no side. Classic. The path to September rests entirely on two CPI prints now 🫠
Markets are tilting toward a hike. But Waller's cut call means a weak jobs print or cool CPI could flip pricing fast. Everything is data-dependent in the most literal sense 🤔
Hike camp vs cut camp, September meeting the battleground, two CPI prints to decide it all. Which side are you on — and what's the number that would change your mind? 👇#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MSTR sold 1,638 BTC again, breaking the myth of only buying but not selling, and the whale's holding logic completely changed
First, clarify the core facts. Many people misread the headline and think their holdings will be cut in half. First, correct the data, then break down the reasons for selling coins, market shocks, and outlook on the market, explaining institutional trends.
1. Core Data of This Sell-off (SEC Disclosure Documents on August 3)
1. Trading Session: July 27 to August 2, with a total of 1,638 Bitcoins sold over four trading days, with a total transaction price of $104.7 million, and an average selling price per token of $63,957.
2. Selling at a loss: MSTR's average overall holding cost is $75,419, so each coin is sold at a low price of $11,462, representing passive cashing out while at a floating loss.
3. Latest Total Holdings: After reduction, 842138 BTC remain, still the world's largest holder of Bitcoin, accounting for nearly 4% of Bitcoin's total permanent circulation; It is not that holdings have been halved; the online rumor of "scale halved" is a misinformation, interpreted as panic caused by two consecutive weeks of large shipments after the company launched its maximum $5 billion coin sale plan.
4. Funding: The cash-out funds are split in two—one half to pay preferred dividends, and the other half to buy back their own STRC preferred shares. It's not a direct exit when they're bearish on Bitcoin; At the same time, the sale of some MSTR shares directly pushed the company's dollar cash reserves up to $4 billion.
2. Timeline for continuous coin selling: Stuck to the five-year principle of 'never selling coins,' but this year he completely changed his stance
1. End of June: Conducted a tentatively sell of 32 BTC, which was only a trading process test, and the market paid little attention;
2. Early July: First large-scale sale of 3,588 tokens, cashing out $216 million, initiating active coin selling;
3. End of July this round: sold another 1,638 Bitcoins, totaling over 5,200 Bitcoins sold over two weeks;
4. Key policy changes: The company raised the quota for selling Bitcoin from $1.25 billion to $5 billion, officially establishing a normalized BTC monetization mechanism. The previous flywheel model of "financing → buying coins → uncontrollable" was halted.
3. Why would you rather lose money than sell coins? Two fundamental realities
1. High-leverage financing pressure is overwhelming, and cash flow must be a safety net
In the past, MSTR relies on issuing convertible bonds and borrowing preferred shares to frantically accumulate coins, paying huge dividends and interest every year; This year, Bitcoin has fluctuated downward, MSTR's stock price has plunged 40% this year, making equity financing more difficult and making it impossible to easily issue new shares and buy coins as easily as in previous years.
If you don't sell coins to pay interest, you face debt liquidity risk. Compared to floating losses on paper, the company's primary goal is to ensure no debt default.
2. Expectations of Fed rate hikes heat up, leading to a pause in aggressive position-building
At this stage, the market is generally concerned that the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in September, and in a high interest rate environment, the cost of borrowing and hoarding coins will further skyrocket; Management has made it clear: the newly raised funds will no longer buy Bitcoin, prioritizing expanding US dollar cash reserves, and temporarily halting institutional holdings of the most core incremental funds.
Additional distinction: Founder Sayler personally didn't sell a single coin; this is just a capital adjustment at the legal representative level. I remain bullish on BTC for a long time, dispelling some rumors that the big shot is running away.
4. Short-term + medium- to long-term impact on the Bitcoin market
Short-term sentiment is bearish
After the news broke, Bitcoin in Asian trading plunged sharply by 1%, weakening under pressure; MSTR is widely recognized by retail investors as a "bullish indicator for institutional bulls." Consecutive losses in selling coins weaken the confidence of speculative funds on the market, making short-term bulls hesitant to enter the market rashly. BTC is likely to maintain a narrow oscillating grinding trend.
In the medium to long term, there is no need to panic excessively
1. The massive 840,000 BTC holdings remain untouched, only a tiny portion is cashed out to repay debts, not a large-scale liquidation and escape;
2. Institutional selling is for financial liquidity management, not to deny Bitcoin's value. As long as Bitcoin's price stabilizes and moves out of its lows, small positions may be restarted later;
3. Industry chain effects: Many overseas SMEs that have emulated MSTR in coin database assets will begin to establish monetization plans. Subsequent selling pressure from small institutions at floating losses requires continued attention.
5. Personal Market Outlook Strategy
At this stage, I won't blindly short or bottom-fish just because of a single whale's selling news. Instead, focus on two signals:
First, whether MSTR will continue to sell large amounts of BTC going forward. If the 5 billion quota continues to be depleted, it will need to further reduce its position to hedge risks;
Second, US Treasury yields, PCE inflation data, and expectations of Fed rate hikes are the core factors determining whether institutions dare to buy coins again.
Recently, many people in the circle have been short on BTC because of MSTR selling. Do you think this is just a short-term selling by institutions repaying debt, or a sign that bullish faith is starting to collapse?Why Are Indonesian Entrepreneurs Excluded from the Top Ranks of the Richest People in ASEAN?
The wealth map in Southeast Asia underwent major changes throughout 2026. For the first time since 2015, not a single Indonesian businessman made it into the top five richest people in ASEAN based on Forbes' real-time rankings.
The top five positions are now occupied by billionaires from Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore with a total wealth of US$107.9 billion. This condition is inversely proportional to the beginning of the year, when four out of five positions were still controlled by Indonesian entrepreneurs.
This phenomenon is not just a change in the number of individual wealth, but reflects a shift in the direction of business growth in the region.
The increase in the valuation of technology, infrastructure, semiconductor, and electric vehicle companies is the main driver for the birth of new leaders in Southeast Asia.
On the other hand, the position of Indonesian conglomerates weakened due to the decline in the share value of a number of large companies. One of the most striking is the decline in Prajogo Pangestu's wealth after the shares of issuers affiliated with the Barito Pacific Group experienced pressure throughout the first half of 2026.
Topping the list today is Pham Nhat Vuong of Vietnam with a net worth of US$33.6 billion. The surge in his wealth was driven by the strengthening of Vingroup's shares, the growth in sales of VinFast's electric cars, and the expansion of the high-speed train project through VinSpeed.
The next position is occupied by Enrique Razon Jr., Sarath Ratanavadi, Dhanin Chearavanont, and Jason Chang. The increase in their wealth was driven by a rally in stocks in the port, energy, food, and semiconductor sectors that experienced an acceleration in infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) investment.
It can be said that while other countries are aggressively building businesses based on technology, logistics, AI, and electric vehicles, Indonesia faces the challenge of producing more high-value companies to compete again at the regional level.The most consensus in the crypto world now is not that the bull market will return soon, but rather: even if this bear market hasn't hit its lowest point yet, it should have mostly passed. New investors feel the price has fallen hard enough, veteran players think time has worn down long enough, and institutions no longer discuss whether Bitcoin will disappear but are considering buying now or waiting for another pullback. Of course, consensus doesn't necessarily mean correct. But I think at this stage, continuing to guess the lowest point is no longer the most important thing. What truly matters is: when the bull market restarts, is the coin I hold the most likely to be bought back by capital? It's not necessarily the bottom now, but it's no longer like the early bear market. Currently, BTC is about $63,000, ETH about $1,625, SOL about $78, and DOGE about $0.07. Compared to its high of over $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has already pulled back more than 50%. In June 2026, the price also touched the long-watched 200-week moving average. According to CoinShares statistics, after touching this moving average five times before, Bitcoin's price was higher a year later; But historical samples are few, which only indicates the odds are improving, not that the lowest point has appeared. Image content: BTC current pulldown position chart Old money hasn't run out, just started picking prices Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have indeed experienced consecutive outflows. For example, on July 23 and 24, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $225 million and $240 million in a single day, respectively. This indicates that institutions also stop losses, rebalance, and wait for updates#USJapanYenIntervention
Japan and the U.S. just carried out their first coordinated currency intervention since 2011, stepping in Friday to halt the yen's slide to its weakest level in roughly 40 years. The yen had tumbled to 163.73 per dollar last Thursday before rebounding sharply to 157.57 on Friday after the two countries jointly bought yen and sold dollars. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed Monday that it may have spent as much as $36.6 billion on the operation, while the U.S. Treasury reportedly sold euros to help fund yen purchases. President Trump framed the move casually, telling reporters "they wanted a little bit of help, and we're always there for Japan," calling it mostly "a signal of friendship." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more formal tone, saying the action "countered disorderly yen movements" and that Washington "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
Behind the friendly framing, analysts see real stakes for both sides. For Japan, a persistently weak yen risks triggering further selling in Japanese government bonds, and Tokyo signaled it plans to tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility for future dollar liquidity — a move that lets Japan raise dollars without dumping U.S. Treasuries, easing concerns that solo intervention could spill over into U.S. funding markets. For the U.S., a weaker yen threatens to widen the trade deficit, and rising JGB yields could add pressure to already-climbing U.S. Treasury yields. It's the first joint yen-buying operation between the two countries since 1998, and with both governments explicitly promising more action if needed, currency traders are bracing for further intervention through the rest of the summer. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MicroStrategy is selling coins again, but the interpretation of this matter is quite different from what most people think.
From July 27 to August 2, 1,638 BTC were sold, cashing out 104.7 million, with an average price of $63,957. Last time, 3,588 BTC were sold in early July; this time, the price has been halved.
The reason for selling is simple—there's a dividend to pay. Preferred stock dividends are 12% annualized, so you can't skip paying. Using the money from selling coins to pay dividends and buy back preferred shares is part of managing existing funds, not actively shorting Bitcoin. The logic is the same as last time, unchanged.
The real interesting part is this—the company still has 842138 BTC on its books, and the proportion hasn't changed. On-chain data also shows no obvious one-sided selling pressure; the market has become desensitized to MicroStrategy selling coins. The first time they sold, everyone panicked, but by the second time, there was basically no response.
The conditions for restarting buying coins are also in place. Once the preferred stock price is adjusted back to the issue price, there is still a 10% shortfall. Once that batch is restored, MicroStrategy's buying rhythm will resume. It's not urgent, and you don't need to rush along.
$BTC $SNDK $BICO 72 hours. The bill doesn't even qualify to be put on the table.
Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate announced this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on top.
Instead, it was H.R.6500—a funding bill that had nothing to do with cryptocurrency.
On August 7, the Senate adjourned.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—they haven't even reached the starting line.
You think 72 hours is long?
Let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedures:
The first hurdle: submitting a cloture (termination of debate) application, which requires signatures from 16 senators.
16 people. Sounds like nothing? This is a request for "Stop arguing, just vote directly."
Second hurdle: Cloture voting, requires 60 votes.
The Republicans held 53 seats, Hawley and Paul clearly opposed it, McConnell did not vote again after being hospitalized—a reliable vote count of at most 50.
At least seven Democrats would need to be pulled in.
These seven people have been stuck on the bill for two months.
The third hurdle: even if the cloture passes, you can still debate for another 30 hours.
30 hours. Only after the debate is done that a vote on "whether to enter the review" is "not to vote on the bill itself."
Even if the green light is clear, the cloture vote will take place as early as Friday (August 7).
And then? The meeting is adjourned.
The bill itself? The interrogation hasn't even begun.
Do you now understand where the problem lies?
Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit your Cloture application.
Thursday? It was too late. Friday? The meeting is adjourned.
So—if 16 people don't sign today, this bill doesn't even have a chance to be "vetoed." Directly stillborn.
How does the market view it?
BTC fluctuated between $63,000 and $63,500.
But don't be fooled by the price—trading volume plummeted by 71%.
Duokong dared not move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: is there still any chance for the bill?
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is between 26% and 31%.
At the beginning of the year, this figure was 82%.
From 82% to 26%. It has dropped 56 percentage points in half a year.
Galaxy Research is even harsher—cutting the price directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent.
Do you know what that means?
The market believes the probability of a bill passing is even lower than the probability of guessing heads and tails by flipping a coin.
To put it bluntly—
Last week, Grayscale was also urging the Senate to vote quickly.
Finance Minister Besent made a public statement.
Industry representatives have contacted Congress over one million times.
Is it useful?
As soon as Monday's agenda came out—there was nothing.
Both parties are still discussing ethical clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue tokens.
A 616-page bill, stuck in just a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto.
The Democrats say you're making too much money, and we don't believe this bill.
The Republicans say the terms can be changed, but voting should be arranged first.
Both sides are acting.
The most crucial sentence—
Even if the procedural vote starts this week, it will only leave a "measure" for the resumption in September.
Reunion in September? There are still two months left until the midterm elections.
By then, who will still be able to control your crypto bill?
The probability of passing by 2026 is shrinking by the hour.
If you still have a large amount of altcoins, bet on a wave of price surges after the bill passes—
You're betting on something that is 70% unlikely to happen.
Can I submit today?
My judgment: the probability is extremely low.
16 signatures are not enough. Seven Democrats can't find enough. It doesn't make it on the agenda.
Lummis said that for weeks, the bill has been on the agenda for a reserved place.
But "keeping a seat" and "having someone to sit on it" are two different things.
No movement today, just no movement.
Finally, let me say something heartbreaking—
Jiang Zhuoer said that if the CLARITY Act cannot be passed before the recess, Bitcoin may complete its final bearish dip.
The chip concentration in the $62,000–$63,000 range is as high as 8%, similar to the eve of the FTX collapse in 2022.
High concentration + negative news reallocating = violent redistribution.
You're not holding on.
You are waiting to be assigned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted Just finished a cold shower, scrolled on my phone for a while, and suddenly burst out laughing.
He laughed that he used to really treat K-lines like his ancestors.
Those idiot knockoffs in my account that used to set alarms for 3 a.m., afraid to miss any big shock, now have prices as flat as my dog's ECG. It's not about money, it's just that I suddenly figured it out—this pile of broken code might not even catch a whiff of the next halving market.
That's a harsh thing, but you can read the exchange's real-time trading data yourself.
I once met a guy who heavily invested in Animal Coins, took it all the way from the mountaintop to the basement, and was chattering in the group every day about 'big player address anomaly' and 'daily bottom divergence confirmed immediately.' I said, 'Can you wake up?' That's called faith? What you call it hurting like not wanting to cut with a single blade.
Last month, the 24-hour trading volume of his coin was damn less than $500,000. The pinned post in the community was still a Mid-Autumn Festival blessing from three months ago, with only two replies below: one for an ad and one for "Good Person of the Original Poster."
The whole board is practically slapping "Run" on your face. This round is far from a flourishing bull market; it's a battlefield of stock cutting into each other. To put it bluntly, it's smart money paying a grave to foolish money.
Those quantitative funds are now extremely cunning, only daring to trade short-term on a handful of stocks with buzz, trading support, and room for volatility. The rest? Every day, I throw you a little in fixed amounts, until you become numb, until you open your wallet and can't even be bothered to scold anyone.
I just glanced at the financial movements over the past 12 hours today (August 4th), and his mom is as precise as a scalpel. See for yourself:
✅ Net capital inflow (mainly driven by buying):
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $DOGE • $XRP • $ADA • $DOT • $AVAX • $LTC • $MATIC
The big bing was as steady as an old dog, and the string below was full of the top twenty faces by market value. All the money is squeezing toward the safest place, which itself is the most cowardly signal. New public chain? Cross-chain bridges? Gaming platform? Not a single hair can be seen on today's list; everything is soaking in the cesspit.
❌ Continued capital outflows (obvious selling pressure):
$SHIB • $TRX • $NEAR • $ATOM • $ALGO • $VET • $ICP • $FIL • $EGLD • $FTM • $SAND • $MANA
There are several of them. Last year, the "foundational infrastructure" hyped up by major communities was the best. What about now? The rebound was as soft as noodles, as if someone had slapped its spine—no matter how hard you tried, you just couldn't lift it. Especially the batch of metaverse products—once the hype fades, they become dead dogs—anyone who touches them is an idiot.
👀 Swiping through the self-selected list but not even raising a finger:
$KAS • $ARB • $OP • $SUI • $APT
Just swipe past. At this point, itching is even scarier than losing money.
A few more words about those big shots you can't avoid:
👑 $BTC** — The anchor of the sea, if it ever becomes unstable, everyone will perish with it
🏛️ **$ETH — The ETF trivial matter is being held on and is dragging its feet, but very few people dare to actually short it
⚡ $SOL** — An emotional thermometer, jumping up and down like you're on drugs, fast in and out, don't stay overnight, or you'll be the one who can't sleep at night
🤖 **$DOGE** — Musk can pull 5 points when he farts, but he comes fast and leaves even faster; if he runs slow, he just stands guard
📉 **$XRP — The consolidation range is narrowing more and more, the market is changing quickly, but who knows the direction
Every cycle repeatedly teaches the same lesson: don't think every stupid project can be made again, don't believe that every roadmap isn't drawn on a PPT.
Those ruthless people who truly live and take money away from the market never place orders based on the words "I feel like it's about to rebound." They don't count waves, draw lines, or believe those dumb indicators; they only look at where the on-chain clearing line is, whether funding rates are normal, and whether contract holdings have exploded.
Faith? Can faith be eaten as food? Mobility is your real daddy, remember.
I lost a Porsche before I truly engraved this sentence in my bones. I hope you pay less tuition and don't follow my old path.
---
It's the weekend, so I tossed my phone aside. Go out and bask in the sun, have a couple of drinks, and chat about things that have nothing to do with the price of the coins. Next Tuesday opens as usual, but your hair and liver may not be.
The market always remains—make sure you live comfortably first.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #加密市场 #资金流向 #周末 #去他妈的行情Guys, EDGE rose 4.54% today, currently quoted at $0.3586, marking a technical recovery phase that started from the $0.32 support range.
After plunging from its high of $1.54, the coin has remained in a bottom-consolidating range for a long time. One token supply data point worth noting: EDGE's current circulation rate is only 35%, with the remaining 65% tokens locked long-term, with the cliff locked until March 2027, after which linear phased unlocking will begin. In the short term, there is no large-scale selling pressure from new tokens, forming a defensive barrier at the bottom price. On-chain data shows that over the past week, the spot market saw a net outflow of about $2.23 million of EDGE, with tokens continuously migrating from exchanges to personal wallets;
Reminder: Withdrawals are only neutral signals and cannot be directly equated with long-term accumulation.
But low-circulation structures are a classic double-edged sword. After the 2027 lock-up cycle ends, large volumes of tokens will continue to enter the market, and the dilution pressure on forward supply needs to be addressed. Fundamentals are also under pressure: protocol revenue plunged 66% year-on-year, token buyback efforts weakened, and token prices are highly sensitive to changes in platform revenue; The trust crisis triggered by the previous plunge from $1.54 to $0.24 has yet to be fully resolved.
Key price level: Resistance at $0.42; a strong breakout on increased volume will open up recovery space toward $0.45-$0.54; Support at $0.35; if it falls, the next target should be $0.32.
$0.42 is the most important resistance zone recently. ⚠️ Note that a brief intraday spike does not count as a breakout; it requires volume and candlestick bodies to hold for a valid signal. If multiple upward attempts are blocked by volume, the consolidation pattern will continue; 0.35 is the first short-term bullish line of defense, and 0.32 is the last key support for the bulls.
For these low-circulation, high-volatility knockoff assets, the market is explosive but also quick to reverse. Fast entry and exit are the trading bottom line, and it's not suitable for long-term heavy holding.
Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $EDGE
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading. The selling I flagged is now a pattern, not a one-off. Strategy sold another 1,638 BTC, roughly half the size of its first sale, cutting holdings to about 842,138 BTC, and paired it with fresh share issuance to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. This is the second sale in weeks from a company whose entire brand was "never sell." The model is being managed in real time now.
Read it for what it is, not the headline. This isn't a bitcoin-conviction problem, it's a cash-flow one: a leveraged holder with dividends and debt is using its most liquid asset to meet obligations when the stock and coin aren't doing the heavy lifting. Selling BTC to fund dividends backed by more share issuance is a machine that works beautifully in a bull market and grinds in a flat one. Not a collapse, a maturing, and a live demonstration of why owning BTC and owning a BTC-treasury company are different risks. Watching whether the sales keep shrinking or keep coming.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StrategySellsMore #OKXOrbitISM hits a four-year high.
However, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
The market is trading an interesting signal:
The U.S. economy has not collapsed, but funds have already started betting on rate cuts.
The latest data shows that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index has risen to its highest level in nearly four years.
The normal logic should be:
The economy is getting stronger
↓
Inflationary pressures are increasing
↓
It is more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates
↓
U.S. Treasury yields rose
But this time, the market did not follow that path.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields actually retreated.
Why?
Because investors are not focused on how strong the economy is today.
Instead:
Will the Fed start cutting interest rates in the coming months?
Now, a contradiction has emerged in the market:
On one hand:
✅ The resilience of the U.S. economy remains
✅ Manufacturing improved
✅ Business activity is rebounding
On the other hand:
⚠️ Inflation continues to decline
⚠️ The labor market is cooling down
⚠️ Expectations for rate cuts have surged again
My view:
This is an important signal for risk assets.
If the following arises in the future:
The economy is not bad + interest rates are falling
This is usually the market's favorite environment.
Because:
Stocks gain growth support.
Crypto assets are expected to gain liquidity.
But if the data remains strong enough to make the Fed worry about inflation again,
Market logic may reverse.
So what we really need to look at now isn't this:
"Is the U.S. economy good?"
Instead:
How long can the economy remain strong without stopping rate cuts?
This balance point,
This is the biggest market transaction in the second half of the year.
Do you think the Fed will cut rates next or continue to maintain high rates?
$BTC
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed 美联储FOMC议息会议，是影响区块链与加密金融市场最重要的外部宏观因素，它通过调节美元利率，改变全球市场的流动性松紧，间接左右整个赛道的资金流向与风险偏好。 当FOMC释放鸽派信号，市场产生降息预期时，美债无风险收益回落，持有比特币这类无息资产的机会成本下降。机构资金风险偏好提升，增量资金会流向加密资产，利好比特币、以太坊等大盘币种，DeFi、RWA等赛道活跃度也会随之回暖，链上借贷、交易规模同步抬升。但市场常常出现“买预期，卖事实”现象，降息真正落地后，反而容易迎来利好兑现的回调。 反之，如果FOMC态度鹰派，选择加息或者维持高利率，资金成本会显著抬升。大量资金会从高风险市场撤出，回流固收类产品。加密市场整体承压，高波动的山寨币、MEME币种受冲击最大，容易发生合约去杠杆、集体抛售的行情。同时链上DeFi借贷意愿降低，RWA新项目融资难度增加，行业扩张节奏被压制。 不同赛道受政策冲击程度存在差异。比特币、以太坊对利率变动最为敏感；DeFi业务直接受资金成本影响；RWA赛道会跟随美债利率变化；稳定币的发行流通规模，也会被美元流动性间接带动。 值得注意的是，市场交易的往往是对未来利率的预