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$ETH $BTC In the past hour, the cryptocurrency market experienced intense targeted liquidations, with bulls suffering an absolute "squeeze" and a sharp short-term decline accelerating.
· Short-term (1 hour) extremely bearish: total liquidation within 1 hour was 4.08 million USD, with long positions accounting for 89.3% (3.64 million vs 430,000). This indicates a sharp price drop in a short time, directly breaking through the stop-loss line of the long-tailed longs.
· In the mid-term (4-12 hours), the long-short battle is intense: in the past 4 hours, 7.96 million long positions were liquidated, and 4.99 million short positions were also liquidated; expanding to 12 hours, the long-short ratio is close to 52% vs 48%. This indicates that the market was already volatile and tug-of-war beforehand, with both long and short positions being wiped out.
· Long-term (24-hour) bear pressure accumulates: total liquidations in 24 hours reached 160 million, with long liquidations (89.16 million) about $20 million more than short positions (68.79 million). Estimation based on time periods:
· First 12 hours (24h-12h): Liquidation about 73.23 million, long-short ratio about 60% vs 40% (long position: 44 million).
· In the past 12 hours (12h-0h): liquidations totaled 86.77 million, with bulls and bears basically flat.
· The key turning point came in the last hour: the slow decline in the previous phase had already caused some bulls to exit, but the accelerated decline in the last hour liquidated the remaining stubborn long leverage. #黄金重返4200美元, why didn't BTC follow the rally?
This set of data is a typical "bullish stampede" signal, with strong short-term downward momentum and market sentiment panic. But this usually also means short-term leverage clearing is nearing its end, and the probability of an oversold rebound is increasing.Don't be intimidated by last night's sharp drop in storage stocks. If you only look at the close, you'll feel the sector has dropped sharply; But if you watch the market all day, you'll find that what really happened last night was a typical "panic shakeout + capital flow." US Stock Market Close: Index Adjustment, Funds Begin to Switch Between High and Low On August 6th, Eastern US Time, the three major US stock indices collectively retreated. The Dow Jones, which had surged early on, began to realize profits, but the decline was the most pronounced; The Nasdaq closed almost flat, with large AI tech stocks still holding the index up. There is only one major reason for the market—everyone is waiting for tonight's US nonfarm payroll data. No one wants to bet early. Overnight highlights: Dow Jones fell 0.85%, closing at 53,885 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.18%; The Nasdaq fell only 0.06%; The VIX rose to around 16, with risk aversion slightly rebounding. Overall, this is more like a health adjustment rather than a full-scale risk outbreak. The storage sector experienced a "roller coaster" Last night, what truly caught the eye was not the index, but the entire storage industry chain. In early trading, almost all plunged. But in the afternoon, it pulled back all the way. Many stocks have completed deep V moves. Among them: Western Digital once plunged nearly 20%, but narrowed its loss to around 13% by the close. SanDisk opened down more than 12%, but then continued bottom-fishing, eventually narrowing the decline to around 6%. Micron's largest drop in early trading exceeded 6%, but ultimately fell only about 1%, once again proving the resilience of the HBM sector. Seagate was even more outrageous, turning positive from a drop of over 7% before finally closing higher against the trend. This shows somethingETH opened a short position in 1916 $ETH $BTC
This trade is still based on the swing range, not directly seeing ETH start a new round of sharp decline.
Recently, ETH has surged several times to around 1920–1930 but has not truly stabilized, while BTC has remained stuck between $63,000 and $65,000, failing to break through effectively.
The current market situation is actually quite clear:
If BTC doesn't rise, ETH will struggle to strengthen on its own; Once BTC pulls back, ETH usually falls even faster.
The news was also quite contradictory.
Although the Fed kept rates unchanged, calls for rate hikes have resurfaced internally, and the market still expects continued tightening in September, making it difficult for risk assets to fully rally for now.
On the other hand, recently both BTC and ETH ETFs have re-flowed, but the funds are clearly more biased toward BTC. ETH/BTC remains at a low level, indicating that there is incremental capital in the market, but ETH trading has not yet truly begun in an independent market.
Additionally, Strategy has recently continued to sell BTC, so there is also selling pressure on BTC above.
So in 1916, I opened a gap and did the following:
✔ ETH repeatedly failed to break through the upper boundary of the range
✔ ETH remains relatively weak compared to BTC
✔ BTC has not broken out, so ETH will find it difficult to strengthen on its own
✔ Macro and liquidity intertwine, making it more suitable for range-bound swings
Next, 1900 marks the short-term boundary between bulls and bears.
If BTC falls below 63,000 and ETH falls below 1890, I will continue to watch 1870–1850.
But if BTC holds above 65,000 with increased volume and ETH recovers to 1930, the logic of this short range will fail—just exit when it's time to leave.
What I short is not ETH's long-term logic.
However, before BTC opened up space, ETH surged to the upper boundary of the range but couldn't rise, so this level is worth trying for a pullback.Trade.xyz is doing something worth remembering—using the money he earns to buy coins in his own ecosystem. According to MLM monitoring, Trade.xyz fee receiving wallets transferred $3.25 million from their perpetual contract fee wallets to spot accounts, and purchased about 59,000 HYPE through TWAP strategies, valued at approximately $3 million. This is not a random operation. On August 5, Trade.xyz used perpetual contract fee income to buy 2,000 HYPE (about $110,000) for the first time to purchase HIP-3 Ticker—this was its first time buying HYPE with contract income, whereas previous purchases were made with spot fees. Two days later, a second, larger purchase followed: $3.25 million, 59,000 HYPE. What signals does this on-chain data send? 1. Fees are turning into buying orders, forming a closed capital loop. The fee income from perpetual contracts is not entirely withdrawn as profits, but instead flows back into the HYPE market. Trading volume Trade.xyz contributed generates fees, and part of these fees become direct demand for HYPE. If this mechanism continues to operate, it will become an automated "fee buyback" channel. 2. The TWAP strategy is not a massive buy-in (time-weighted average price) that means the money enters the market smoothly in batches, rather than hitting the market all at once. This is not short-term pulling behavior, but more like a structural accumulation of positions. 3. This is not a charity event$AAOI 的核心矛盾集中于1.6T产品未来几周认证落地与当前光芯片产能瓶颈带来的出货限制，市场风险偏好正在从情绪炒作向实际盈利交付快速收敛。
二季度财报显示营收1.91亿美元与EPS 0.06美元，5.088亿美元现金储备为扩产提供资金缓冲，但20%至40%的需求缺口暴露出供应链供需失衡现状。 行业激光器短缺推高了上游成本通胀预期，机构资金对光模块板块的仓位配置更看重自研激光器的毛利率修复路径而非单纯的产能愿景。
当前驱动逻辑的排序依次为：超大规模客户1.6T认证能否在数周内通过、800G现阶段良率与交货能力、以及ATM增发对股权稀释造成的短期流动性压力。 垂直整合的InP产能要到2027年初才能投产，这意味着未来几个季度的收入上行空间完全受制于现有产线的出货极限。
在上行剧本中，若1.6T认证在数周内顺利通过，且2027年底800G与1.6T月产能向65万单位推进的节奏未受阻碍，资金风险偏好将显著提升。 这一变量将直接验证非GAAP毛利率向40%回归的确定性，吸引追逐确定性业绩增长的机构仓位加码进场。
该上行逻辑的失效信号在于客户认证时间拉长超出预期，或ATM增发引发的市场抛压打压估值弹性空间。
在下行剧本中，如果行业高功率激光器短缺导致CPO大批量产出推迟至2027年第三季度末之后，短期业绩落差将触发风险偏好回撤与仓位离场。 产能限制无法满足现有需求可能导致客户份额流失，进而在成本通胀与高研发开支叠加下压低整体毛利率。
下行剧本的失效信号是公司在今年晚些时候提前实现ELSFP产量的阶梯式爬坡，成功抵消短期产能限制带来的营收缺口。
未来7天最值得密切跟踪的观察变量是官方公布的1.6T客户认证进展节点以及ATM融资额度的实际使用情况。
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？Stayed up all night, searched through all the information online, and here's a caption.
Is $BICO, the top-gaining stock, worth buying? Shorting or going long?
Let's start with history. BICO once reached a high of 21.45. From 21.45 to 0.012, 99.94% is gone.
And then? Started at 0.0117 on August 1, rose to 0.046 in five days, tripling in five days.
It ranks first in gains, up +9.78% in 24 hours, current price 0.04051.
What kind of coin is BICO?
Biconomy, an Account Abstraction infrastructure, was established in 2019 and is a well-established project invested in by Coinbase Ventures and Binance Labs. Fully circulated, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens fully released, no future unlocking pressure or risk of private equity sell-offs.
Long-short ratio: bulls dominate, retail investors are pushing, and large players are pledged
The 24-hour long-short ratio across the entire network is 1.0088, with bulls slightly outstanding.
Binance account's long-short ratio is 1.2462; the long account is 24% higher than the short.
More importantly, the data for large players: Binance's long-short ratio for large holders is 1.6178, and for large holders' positions is 1.6103;
Among the top 20% of large holders, both the number of long positions and the scale of funds far exceeded those of short positions.
The OKX account long-short ratio is as high as 1.88, with bulls fully controlling the market.
Retail investors are pushing, big players are holding firm, and a bullish consensus has already formed.
Top ten holdings: Highly concentrated holdings
The top ten addresses hold 68% of the circulating supply.
For comparison, before LINK launched, the top ten holdings were just over 40%.
BICO's token concentration is even higher than LINK's.
The market maker's chips are highly concentrated, so a rally doesn't require much capital—triple in five days is the same logic.
But when the bookmaker wants to smash, 68% of the chips are smashed out, and no one can catch them.
A double-edged sword—both fuel and bomb.
Trading volume and technical aspects: Volume increase confirmed, but overheated
On August 6, BICO's 24-hour turnover surpassed $110 million, with a daily volatility of 46%, which is four times the previous average for the same period.
Volume breaks through all moving averages, confirming the bullish trend.
But RSI 14 has already surged to 85.44, which is severely overbought.
After the 4H RSI surged to 84.69, the price fell from 0.046 to 0.038. Strong short-term pullback demand.
Long or bearish? It depends on your time frame.
You might say it's weak. Pulling from 0.0117 to 0.046, triple in five days, volume surged above all moving averages, and the bullish trend remains intact.
You say it's strong, right? RSI 85+ is severely overbought, with 68% of the top ten holdings, and institutional investors can dump the market at any time.
You might think it can chase, but a pullback to 0.025-0.030 is a good entry point, but now chasing at 0.04 is no longer cost-effective.
You might say it can be shorted, but the long-short ratio is generally dominant, funding rates have turned negative, the short squeeze structure remains intact, bears are paying to hold on, and counter-trend tops are prone to exposure.
You can go long or short; the key is where you make your move.
Buying above 0.04? Low cost-effectiveness.
Short on 0.04? Counter-trend risks are high.
Waiting for a pullback to 0.025-0.030 to go long, or waiting for a drop below 0.035 to go short—both are better than acting now.
You only know the direction by stepping forward, not by guessing.
At this position, watch more and move less. The wind hasn't stopped yet, don't rush to pick sides.
$BTC
$ETH
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? $BTC 大饼如果能把下方63300附近的流动性拿完再上去的话还是看到一个68000的高点，已经磨了多久了，我是狗庄我就上去把68000的流动性拿了，都摸了两次顶了都是差一点就摸到
现在的底部也是没有很明确的感觉，不要总想着抄底，对于周线来说还是一个下跌的趋势
这种行情多也不是空也不是，还是耐心等待某些关键位置吧，我63300的挂单多是想着反弹毕竟我还有一个空单，想胜率高一点就不要在这种地方开了老老实实等吧，最近一直在骗炮
只是分享一个思路，没有对错之分不构成投资建议🤔
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 📊 $SUI Liquidation Flash Report (August 7)
According to liquidation data, the bulls in this wave were brutally crushed by the short sellers...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $15,300
Long position liquidations about $15,300
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $48,000
Long position liquidations about $48,000
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $104,500
Long position liquidations about $99,900
Short position liquidations about $4,649.80
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $804,800
Long position liquidations about $798,300
Short position liquidations about $6,548.67
From the $SUI liquidation data, long position liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with shorts at zero; the bull liquidation is exploding with nuclear intensity in short cycles; the 12-hour long advantage continues with a ratio of about 21.5 times, indicating bull liquidation throughout short to mid cycles; the 24-hour long liquidation surges to $798,300, 122 times that of shorts. The short sellers have completed a full-cycle slaughter of bulls on SUI—bulls across short, mid, and long cycles have been comprehensively targeted and blasted, while the shorts' only resistance slightly strengthens in the long cycle but is negligible. Total liquidations exceed $800,000. Everyone, control your positions and avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% Growth + $14 Billion Buyback, Still Knocked Down by "Not Impressive Enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
However, after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter's guidance—midpoint revenue $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% suggests high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC Growth Steady, Arc Becomes New Narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19%; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of increasing crypto payment penetration, Circle is trying to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Unlocking Peak Is the Real Storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. A bigger storm is coming on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded a 372% growth for a post-market plunge, SpaceX traded a 92% revenue growth for a market vote with feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ 很多人认为，黄金上涨，比特币应该同步上涨，因为两者都被视为“抗通胀资产”。
但这一次，市场并没有这样交易。
黄金重返4200美元，背后的驱动力更多来自避险需求、央行持续购金以及全球宏观不确定性。
而BTC本质上已经越来越偏向风险资产。
近几年机构资金进入后，比特币与美股、流动性的相关性明显提升。当市场风险偏好不足、增量资金没有持续流入时，即使黄金上涨，BTC也未必会同步走强。
所以，不要再简单把BTC理解成“数字黄金”。
黄金交易的是避险逻辑，BTC更多交易的是流动性和风险偏好。只有当市场开始重新释放流动性，或者机构资金重新加速流入BTC，黄金和BTC才有可能再次形成共振。
我一直认为，决定BTC下一轮行情的，不是黄金涨多少，而是全球资金什么时候重新愿意承担风险。$SKHYNIX Continuing to fall—can this wave of storage chips really be bottom-fished?
SanDisk and SK Hynix have been in a tough spot this week. Today, SK Hynix fell from 1118 to 1026, down 4.87% in 24 hours. If SanDisk's decline was due to poor earnings guidance, then Hynix is more about sentiment being transmitted across the storage sector, plus the chain reaction of leveraged ETF forced liquidations in South Korea is still ongoing. After the largest single-day gain in Korea's KOSPI history jumped for one day last Friday, this week it returned to its original state
I opened a short position on SK Hynix at 1064, didn't plan to hold for long, just felt it wouldn't rise after this rebound to 1130. Open interest dropped from 51,000 to around 48,000, with both bulls and bears reducing positions, which actually shows unclear direction and capital is watching and waiting. 1026 is today's low; if it breaks, I might target 1000. But tonight I don't want to hold overnight; it's more important to balance my mindset and sleep before the weekend
Memory chips rose too much in the first half of the year, and now they've pulled back for over a month. Both bulls and bears are asking if they've reached the bottom. I don't know myself, but it's true that the rebound above 1080 has reduced volume. If the rebound isn't strong, don't rush to bottom-fish
Can you sleep overnight holding positions on weekends?$DXY has risen by 0.28%, $BTC is weak, but $ETH is actually tougher than Da Bing—the money hasn't all left, it's secretly swapping cars.
A quick glance:
$BTC 64,217 -0.68% $ETH 1,901 -0.43%
$QQQ -0.37% $SPY -0.16% $IBIT -0.68%
$DXY +0.28% $GLD +0.01%
Hormuz tightened, oil prices held firm, inflation expectations couldn't come down, Fed rate cuts kept pushing back, US Treasuries were suppressed, $QQQ had no momentum to surge. The semiconductor side is in a world of fire and ice: $MU +0.7% is tough and red, $SKHYNIX is directly -5.5% a lesson, but Feng Pian only dares to play his cards openly.
$IBIT fell more than $BTC, and ETFs left first, indicating spot buying wasn't as strong. $ETH Instead of following blindly, it's more flexible than Bitcoin, with on-market funds rotating rather than a full sell-off. $DXY Raising your pinky finger, all risk assets have to shrink their necks—it's the remote control. $GLD Still stuck in place, even if it's only +0.01%, haven't exited your safe-haven bottom position, don't be fooled by fake signals.
Don't chase highers. Whoever loses the $DXY or $GLD first, sets the next wave's direction. I'm watching closely.
#内存卖方市场延续, can the Korean stock market see a turnaround?Crypto Morning Report on August 7
$BTC In the morning, it fluctuated between 64,700 and 64,900, with the overnight high near 65,000. $ETH around 1910, the rebound strength is still weaker than BTC's, and funds have not yet spread to altcoins.
Last night, U.S. second-quarter productivity grew 1.4%, unit labor costs rose only 1.3%, and initial jobless claims were 199,000. Cost pressures are temporarily under control and slightly friendly to risk assets, but not enough to directly change Fed expectations.
Tonight at 20:30, the US July nonfarm payroll data will be released. The market expects 80,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. The official release date has been confirmed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
On the market, BTC remains to be seen whether it can hold above 65,000. After a breakout, target 65,300–65,500; if not, guard against 64,200–64,000. Nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and unemployment remains stable, which is positive for BTC. With both employment and wages strong, US dollar and Treasury yields may rise, making short-term pullbacks more likely.
Today's data is not suitable for high-leverage breakout chases; waiting for the 15-minute close after 20:30 is more stable.真的，情绪控制是交易里最难的一关。昨晚睡前看着$ETH在4700附近磨蹭，心想差不多了吧，这波反弹够意思了。挂了个4800的止盈单就睡了。早上醒来一看，卧槽！价格直接冲破5000，还在往上窜！那种感觉你们懂吗？不是亏钱的痛，是赚钱赚少了的酸爽。我突然意识到一个问题——我一直在用"回本思维"做交易。什么意思呢？就是持仓的时候满脑子都是"快回本快回本"，等真的回本了，又怕利润回吐，急急忙忙就跑了。完全忽略了行情本身的强度。这轮从3500拉到5000，中间有多少人像我一样，在4800、4900就被甩下车了？稳扎稳打，说起来简单做起来难。我现在复盘，其实有两个信号被我故意忽略了。一是链上数据，巨鲸地址在4600附近还在持续吸筹；二是清算地图，4800-5000区间空单堆积如山，摆明了要爆空。我当时也看到了这些数据，但大脑自动选择了"过滤"，只听自己想听的声音。这就是情绪交易最可怕的地方——不是没看到信号，是选择性忽视。现在$ETH已经5100了，我不敢追了。不是不看好，是我现在的情绪状态不适合进场。怕踏空焦虑让我梭哈，万一回调我就又割在低点，恶性循环。先冷静一下，看看回踩5000能不能站稳，如🚨 Quick Take:
Changxin Storage reportedly rejected Apple's request for lower prices and quoted in line with Samsung & SK Hynix.
The bigger story isn't higher prices—it's shifting pricing power. For years, giants like Apple dictated terms. Now memory makers are saying "no."
With memory supply expected to stay tight and capacity largely booked out, the market is re-pricing assets backed by real supply-demand dynamics.
The question for crypto: when does that capital rotate back into risk assets like $BTC?
Worth watching.
Agar aur zyada short X-style chahiye:
Writing
🚨 The real story isn't memory prices rising—it's suppliers gaining pricing power.
Changxin Storage reportedly pushed back on Apple's price-cut demands, a sign that the balance is shifting from buyers to sellers.
Tight memory supply + sold-out capacity = strong supply-side narrative.
Now watch whether capital eventually rotates from hard assets back into crypto. 👀📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $15,800
Long positions were liquidated at about $0
Short liquidations amounted to about $15,800
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $812,900
Long positions were liquidated about $45,000
Short liquidations amounted to about $767,900
In the past 12 hours, the amount of liquidation was approximately $5.7559 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $2.6836 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $3.0723 million
The amount of liquidation in the past 24 hours was approximately $6.626 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $3.084 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $3.542 million
From $SPCX liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with the short monopoly completely dominated, and the short squeeze flash was fierce right from the start; The 4-hour short advantage continued, with short positions 17 times the bulls, leading to a full-scale short squeeze; The 12-hour direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking the bears, at about 1.14 times, triggering the long squeeze; At 24 hours, the bears overtook again, with the short selling at 1.15 times, making a comeback. On SPCX, Gouzhuang completed a triple choke: short squeeze → long kill→ and then short squeeze, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $6.62 million. The pace is extremely chaotic, and every side you chase gets cut off. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being recovered and profited.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Everyone is focused on the unlock. Few are asking how much of the risk is already priced in.
$SPCX has already dropped 15.4%, from 130 to 110, with sellers taking full control after earnings and leaving little room for a meaningful bounce.
For bears, the key level is 100—about 9-10% below current prices.
Could the unlock trigger more selling? Definitely.
But unlocks alone don't guarantee a prolonged decline. A significant portion of the near-term risk may already be reflected in the price. If fundamentals remain strong and institutional demand starts to appear, buyers could return faster than expected.
The unlock is a catalyst—not the whole story.
#SPCX #DailyOrbit📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $86.06
Long liquidations about $86.06
Short liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $14,400
Long liquidations about $14,300
Short liquidations about $37.26
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $59,500
Long liquidations about $56,600
Short liquidations about $2,875.45
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $114,800
Long liquidations about $106,800
Short liquidations about $7,916.17
From the $LAB liquidation data, long liquidations in 1 hour overwhelmingly surpass shorts, shorts are zero, the long liquidation blitz started fiercely; the 4-hour long advantage continues, longs are 384 times shorts, long liquidations fully erupt; 12-hour longs still far ahead, ratio about 19.7 times, long liquidations run through short and medium cycles; 24-hour long liquidations soar to $106,800, 13.5 times shorts, the dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on LAB—short, medium, and long cycle longs are comprehensively targeted and blasted, shorts' only resistance slightly strengthens in the long cycle but is insignificant, cumulative liquidations exceed $110,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14 billion buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% YoY; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% YoY.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged nearly 8%. The culprit is next quarter guidance—revenue midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC steady growth, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% YoY; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% YoY; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% YoY.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market bets on. With crypto payment penetration continuously rising, Circle is trying to upgrade from "stablecoin issuer" to "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, unlocking peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% YoY, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its high.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth led to after-hours plunge, SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth led to market voting with feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" satisfies investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance, every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ I'm too stubborn, going long at such a high level! Stop your losses and just cut your losses. Though it's upsetting, I accept it.
---
💰 Where did this single loss lie?
Opened long at 1,296.19, stopped at 1,265, 20x leverage, -50.1%, losing 3.4U.
Looking back, I really did rush in. In my previous post, I said I 'entered a bit late,' but I still gritted my teeth and chased after it, only to get a lesson from the market.
---
📉 Let's review: What went wrong?
(1) Chasing high is the original sin
From 1,167 to 1,324, it has rebounded by $157, which is a large short-term gain. When you chase in, although the moving averages have turned around, the RSI has already entered the overbought zone, so a pullback is highly likely.
(2) Underestimating the pressure from trapped positions before the earnings report
The 1,300-1,320 range was the previous intensive trading zone, with many trapped positions waiting to break free and sell. Bulls pushed up to this level, with selling pressure increasing significantly.
(3) Position management has not kept up
If you know you entered late, you should have lowered your position or increased your stop-loss a bit. But I still stuck to my normal position, and after a pullback of just over 20 dollars, I was swept away.
---
😔 Mood Record
The previous post also said "the bulls are very strong," but I chased it in and got buried. Honestly, my direction judgment was correct—it did rise to 1,324, but I didn't manage the entry point and position well, so I died halfway.
Several consecutive orders have resulted in small gains and big losses; this rhythm must be paused and adjusted.
---
💡 How should adjustments be made next?
· Trading is suspended, and the position is empty for at least half a day
· Once the market stabilizes, there's no rush to break even
· Reduce your position; once you make a mistake, you can't make a second mistake in a row
The profits from previous trades can still cover this loss, so overall it's still positive. But the rhythm has already gotten messed up, so we have to stop for now.
---
Yesterday was too stubborn; today I learn my lesson.
Chasing highs, I should avoid doing it less in the future.
$SNDK
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? 📊 $KAITO合约爆仓速递（8月7日）
根据爆仓数据，多空反复绞杀，狗庄来回收割。。。
过去1小时爆仓金额约71.58美元
多单爆仓约66.33美元
空单爆仓约5.25美元
过去4小时爆仓金额约5881.16美元
多单爆仓约5100.96美元
空单爆仓约780.20美元
过去12小时爆仓金额约9.97万美元
多单爆仓约4.21万美元
空单爆仓约5.76万美元
过去24小时爆仓金额约23.49万美元
多单爆仓约14.84万美元
空单爆仓约8.66万美元
从$KAITO爆仓数据看，1小时多头爆仓碾压空头，多头是空头的12倍，杀多闪击开局即猛烈；4小时多头优势持续，比例约6.5倍，杀多全面爆发；12小时方向逆转，空头爆仓反超多头，比例约1.37倍，逼空启动；24小时多头再度反超，多头是空头的1.71倍，狗庄在KAITO上完成了多空反复绞杀——杀多→逼空→再杀多，累计爆仓突破23万美元。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月7日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场已进入"不仅要好，还要好到无可挑剔"的阶段——"超预期"只是入场券，任何瑕疵都会被放大。
💾 闪迪：372%增长+140亿回购，仍被"不够惊艳"击倒
闪迪交出炸裂财报：Q4营收89.7亿美元，同比暴增372%；调整后EPS达39.25美元，是一年前的135倍；董事会批准140亿美元股票回购计划。全年营收202.5亿美元，同比增长175%。
然而，盘后股价一度重挫近8%。元凶是下一季度指引——营收中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期的108.2亿美元。毛利率83%-85%的指引暗示高毛利可能进入平台期。372%的增长不够，140亿的回购不够——市场要的是"完美"。
💳 Circle：USDC增长稳健，Arc成新叙事
8月5日盘前，稳定币巨头Circle交出Q2成绩单：总营收7.01亿美元，同比增长7%；净利润4800万美元，较去年同期扭亏。USDC流通量达733亿美元，同比增长19%；链上交易量14.8万亿美元，同比暴涨151%。
最大看点是Arc——公司大幅上调全年其他收入指引至3.1-3.3亿美元，主要反映Q2确认的2.42亿美元Arc代币预售收入。USDC是基本盘，Arc才是市场押注的未来。在加密支付渗透率持续提升的背景下，Circle正试图从"稳定币发行商"升级为"加密金融基础设施平台"。
🚀 SpaceX：营收翻倍，解禁洪峰才是真正的风暴
8月4日盘后，SpaceX首份财报亮相：Q2营收78.14亿美元，同比增长92%，远超预期的69亿美元；调整后EBITDA达35亿美元。
盘后股价一度暴跌超9%。资本开支飙升至184亿美元，是去年同期的6.5倍——市场奖励的是花钱的效率，而非烧钱的速度。更大的风暴在8月6日：约9.12亿股限售股解禁，解禁市值高达1140亿美元，相当于当前流通盘的1.4倍。上市不到两个月，股价已从高点近乎腰斩。
💎 总结
闪迪用372%的增长换来了盘后暴跌，SpaceX用92%的营收增速换来了市场用脚投票——"超预期"已成及格线，只有"完美"才能让投资者满意。
当AI赛道从"讲故事"全面进入"交答卷"的阶段，指引的每一分偏差、资本开支的每一块钱，都会被放在聚光灯下反复审视。旧逻辑正在崩塌，新定价权正在形成——而它惩罚的是所有"不够完美"的答案。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ US stock market close: Three major indices all close, Dow ends five-day winning streak! Memory chip stocks plunged again, Western Digital fell over 13%, SanDisk dropped over 6%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 5%; Most gold stocks rose
On Thursday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, ending a five-day winning streak on the Dow. The Associated Press reported that rising oil prices and mixed pressure from listed company earnings weighed on the stock market. At the close, the Dow Jones fell 0.85% to 53,885.1 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.18% to 7,709.96 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.06% to 26,348.35 points.
In terms of industry and sector, most large tech stocks closed lower. In terms of individual stocks, Microsoft rose 2.54%, Apple gained 0.45%, Facebook gained 0.19%, Nvidia fell 0.10%, Amazon fell 0.14%, Tesla fell 0.63%, and Google declined 1.29%.
Memory chip stocks weakened, with Western Digital down over 13%, SanDisk down over 6%, SK Hynix down nearly 5%, and Micron Technology down over 1%.
Most financial stocks closed lower: Berkshire Hathaway rose 0.77%, Bank of America fell 0.36%, JPMorgan Chase fell 0.80%, Morgan Stanley fell 2.06%, Goldman Sachs fell 2.63%, Citigroup fell 2.77%, and Wells Fargo declined 1.77%. Energy stocks closed higher across the board: Occidental Oil rose 4.20%, Schlumberger rose 3.29%, ExxonMobil rose 2.13%, Chevron rose 1.52%, and ConocoPhillips rose 1.50%. Airline stocks closed lower across the board: Southwest Airlines down 3.83%, Boeing down 3.34%, American Airlines down 3.32%, United Airlines down 2.74%, and Delta Air Lines down 1.25%.
Most gold stocks closed higher: Franco Nevada up 1.98%, Eagle Mining up 1.54%, Royal Gold up 1.40%, and Newmont Mining up 1.09%.
Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance: the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.27%, and the Wind China Technology Leaders Index fell 0.96%. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, TAL Education rose 3.02%, BeiGene rose 0.69%, Huazhu Group gained 1.09%, NetEase gained 1.76%, JD.com rose 0.83%, Tencent Music gained 0.63%, Ctrip Group gained 0.61%, Beike rose 0.18%, Bilibili rose 0.38%, Alibaba fell 1.35%, Pinduoduo fell 0.10%, and Baidu Group declined 1.60%.
Europe's three major stock indices showed mixed results. The London Stock Exchange's Financial Times 100-stock average price index closed at 10,867.89 points, down 20.41 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day; The CAC40 index on the French stock market closed at 8,699.71 points, up 30.42 points or 0.35% from the previous trading day; Germany's Frankfurt DAX index closed at 26,140.13 points, up 13.83 points or 0.05% from the previous trading day.
International oil prices rose on the 6th. By the close of the day, September delivery light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.07 to $77.29 per barrel, an increase of 2.75%; London Brent crude futures for October delivery rose $3.04 to $82.49 per barrel, an increase of 3.83%. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $4,298.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 0.81% at $61.78 per ounce.
$BTC ，$ETH ，$GRVT
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added The most easily overlooked pitfalls in a dead market aren't crashes, but the unfinished AI stories of miners.
This week, Cointelegraph made a striking statement: Bitcoin miners' AI pivots are losing Wall Street's wow factor. In other words—Wall Street is tired of mining companies' valuation stories of 'we're not just mining, but also doing AI computing power.'
Don't underestimate this story. For the past two years, it has been a buffer for miners to "not sell coins": stock prices are supported by AI narratives, cash flow is expected to be empty-handed, giving mining companies the confidence to hoard coins and not sell. Now that the wow factor is gone and valuation logic loosens, miners are more likely to return to the old path of "selling coins to survive"—and miners are the source of selling pressure for BTC's natural rival.
Look at the market: BTC is soldering at 64,338 (-0.51%), volume has slashed from -82% to -93%, OI 105,500 BTC frozen, fee rate +0.0006%, so soft it's almost unbreathable, fear and greed weld to death at 25, breadth 5:10. There was no buying in the dead market, and adding another layer of potential selling pressure from mining companies makes this situation even more stifling.
Here's a set of "Three Looks for Miner Selling Pressure" for all of you:(1) Mining stocks AI narrative is cold = mining companies' cash flow expectations are discounted; (2) BTC prices in a dead market rely on ETFs + political bids (discussed last time), not miners not selling; (3) Real risk is focused on whether miners' holdings/hash rate have shifted to net selling; current narrative is fading + dead market = selling pressure risks are heating up, but not yet confirmed.
My set of trades actually got harder: GRVT short flip +0.61%, ADA long +1.48%—I've finally taken off half of the contrarian indicator hat, and if I do it the opposite, remember to do it the opposite.
Do you believe miners can hold out and not sell, or do you believe AI stories break and they'll have to dump coins again? A can hold out B has to dump C. Reverse mine short stock chains, typing letters in the comments.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $ADA #矿工卖压 #AI叙事熄火 #供给侧风险 #市场广度 #风控策略 #新手科普 #行情分析 #OKX星球AAOI's latest financial report shows customer demand exceeds production capacity by 20% to 40%, and delivery of high-spec optical modules is constrained by laser manufacturing speed. The shortage of optical chips has focused market attention on vertically integrated supply chains, and the industry supply-demand gap is reshaping capital positioning preferences. If hyperscale customers successfully complete certification of $AAOI's 1.6T products in the coming weeks, short-term risk appetite will continue to strengthen sentiment. Conversely, if data center capital expenditure slows and causes certification delays, subsequent monitoring should focus on monthly manufacturing capacity as the core variable.
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new repurchase authorizations was added📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term bears are being pinned down and rubbing wildly, but medium- to long-term bulls have directly collapsed...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $573.43
Long positions were liquidated at about $0
Short positions were liquidated at about $573.43
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was about $28,700
Long positions liquidated about $25,500
Short positions were liquidated at about $3,185.74
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $766,800
Long positions were liquidated by about $415,500
Short positions were liquidated by about $351,300
The amount of liquidation in the past 24 hours was approximately $1.3747 million
Long positions were liquidated about $981,000
Short positions were liquidated by about $393,700
From $HYPE's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing the entire market, with a fierce short squeeze right from the start; At 4-hour direction, the direction suddenly reversed, with long liquidations crushing the bears, bulls eight times the shorts, and the bullish squeeze erupted across the board; The 12-hour bullish advantage persisted but narrowed, with a ratio of about 1.18 times, significantly strengthening short squeeze power; 24-hour long forced liquidations soared to $980,000, 2.5 times that of bears. Dog Trader completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling on HYPE — short-term short chases were targeted and blown up, medium- to long-term long chases were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.37 million. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? BTC is at $64,300, and ETH is near $1,905, generally in a high-level oscillation pattern. BTC has held above the 64,000 level, showing short-term bullish but obvious resistance above. It is recommended to focus on breakout volume. ETH is relatively weak and linked to Bitcoin but lacks elasticity. If BTC pulls back, ETH may be the first to come under pressure. In contract trading, avoid chasing highs; if it pulls back to key support, lighten positions and test long positions, strictly stop losses, and be wary of false breakouts.Here are some TLDR notes about $AAOI's earnings report:
- Its hyperscale customers are expected to complete full certification of 1.6T products within the next few weeks
(Favorable Revenue Growth #2, Timeline)
- Continued belief that AOI will have the largest AI data center transceiver production capacity in the United States
(Reaffirming ambition while competitors may be banned)
- Facilities targeting InP capacity are expected to go online in early 2027
(Further growth timeline FYI)
- Total capacity is close to 200,000/u per month, reaching 650,000/u of 800g/1.6t by year-end. By the end of 2027, 930,000/u
(This is the growth I want to see)
- "Increase manufacturing capacity for our external light sources or ELSFP. This is for co-packaged optics or CPO. We expect to gradually expand production later this year and through 2027, ultimately reaching about 400,000 units per month by 2028."
(Some time will be needed to model this into the income)
- "As we mentioned earlier, we have been manufacturing lasers in-house for many years. This has allowed us to avoid certain shortages that would affect other players in the industry."
(Bull Market Case of Vertical Integration During the CW/EML Laser Shortage)
- We believe that CPOs will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers in the future
(Validation of arguments in the CPO field)
- "Achieving our long-term goal of restoring non-GAAP gross margin to around 40%"
- "Our total cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter were $508.8 million"
I need to carefully check if the ATM is complete
- "Our overall ability to generate revenue, especially for 800G products, is currently limited by our production capacity." "If we can produce more, we can ship more now."
Demand > Supply verification.
- "Most of the increased capacity will be in the United States. Even so, I want to say, as I have always emphasized, this is still not enough to meet customer demand. Customer demand is 20%-40% higher. ”
The industry-wide non-saint photonics requirements validation, and the understanding of $LITE, $SIVE/$JBL, and other companies is impressive.
- "Not in the next two or three years, especially when demand is so high. Okay? Even if AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all add up, meeting customer needs in the coming years will still be very difficult."
More optical field needs are validated.
- CPO timeline: "If you're talking about truly high-capacity manufacturers [targeting the CPO market], I'd say it's more like later in the third quarter of next year" and "We've already worked very closely with at least five customers."
If you're concerned about the current financial report (I haven't read it very closely),
Revenue: $191 million vs. $190 million
Earnings per share: $0.06 vs. $0.02
TLDR: Exceptional demand in the laser + optics field is well understood. Some support Lumentum's CEO statement that the laser shortage is more severe than memory shortage.
Capacity growth in 2027 is proceeding as planned. To match the turning point period with the timeline, it will be around early next year, as stated in their last earnings call.
AAOI now has customers. The limitation is to manufacture enough lasers and transceivers.Why do I recommend everyone pay more attention to ETH?
Because since the start of this bear market, RWA has been the only sector to grow against the trend.
Even though crypto prices halved, ETF outflows occurred, and stablecoin growth dropped to zero, RWA scale grew from 5.4 billion at the beginning of the year to 31.8 billion in June
Tokenized government bonds triple in a year. What is still growing in a bear market is the embryo for the next bull market
This pattern has been historically validated: DeFi's TVL quietly rose at the tail end of the 2019-2020 bear market and then became the main theme in 2021.
In the next bull market, RWA will be the main narrative, with funds revaluating related assets according to new stories,
Just like at the end of 2020, the market began valuing ETH with a "DeFi settlement layer" instead of "ICO fuel."
This repricing doesn't require revenue to come in first; it just needs the story to be adopted by institutional research reports. It's already happening: Farrell's primary reason for giving ETH greater flexibility is the RWA narrative🔥 Note: 🔥 Today, two bombs detonated at the same time, but someone is secretly trying to catch your bottom
Last night before going to bed, I glanced at my holdings, then at the calendar—August 7th, and my heart skipped a beat.
Today, two things happened simultaneously: at 8:30 PM, the US July nonfarm payroll data will be released, and the same day is the last working day before Senate summer break—the life-or-death window for the CLARITY crypto bill. Two bombs—one for monetary policy expectations, one for regulatory expectations. If either one explodes, BTC will have to jump.
But what really alerted me wasn't these two events themselves—it was what the funds beneath the market were doing.
Let's start with the price. BTC is now hovering near 64,300, down 0.46% in 24 hours, with trading volume shrinking to 18.7 billion, down 21% from yesterday. A classic case of "calm before the storm"—everyone is holding their breath for data. Technically, the 50-day moving average (64,500-64,600) has been like a wall for three weeks, and every time it touches it, it's knocked back. Above 65,000 is a hard wall; below 62,500-63,000 is the buyer's defense; below 61,400 is the basement.
Then I flipped through three sets of data, and the more I looked, the more interesting it seemed.
First, ETF funds secretly turned hostile. From late July to early August, there were net outflows for five consecutive days, with the worst single day losing 265 million yuan. But starting August 3rd, there were three consecutive days of net inflows—about 170 million on August 3, 210 million on August 4, and about 120 million on August 5. BlackRock IBIT alone held 76%, buying nearly 300 million yuan. More importantly, this inflow occurred when the Fear of Corruption Index was 25—extreme fear. Institutions entered the market when retail investors were most afraid.
Second, on-chain tokens are quietly changing hands. Whale addresses (over 100 BTC) net increased holdings by over 13,000 BTC in the first week of August, while retail addresses (below 10 BTC) lost nearly 14,000 BTC. Almost a one-to-one transfer. Do you know what this means? Terrified retail investors handed over their chips to calm large funds. "The most dangerous time in the market isn't a crash; it's when you think everyone has left, but when someone is picking up the tokens you discarded."
Third, funding rates are close to zero or even turning negative. On OKX, BTC perpetual contract fees are about -0.01%, with bears paying taxes to the bulls. With so few long sellers, once a catalyst appears, the short squeeze will be very fierce.
The biggest variable today is the nonfarm payroll at 8:30 PM. Last month, there were only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, ridiculously weak; market expectations for this round are 85,000 to 130,000. If weakness continues, rate hike expectations cool, the dollar falls, and BTC surges—but the 65,000 wall won't get through unless volume ramps up. If it suddenly strengthens and rate hike expectations rise again, BTC will come under pressure. Whether the 62,500 defense line can hold is key. Here's another extra story: at 22:00, Fed's Barkin is going to speak. He's hawkish, strong nonfarm payrolls + Barkin hawkish = double blow.
Today's plan:
Don't open your position before the non-farm payroll season; wait for the data to come in before making moves
After the data, volume increased and it held steady at 65,000, then tested the pullback to 64,600 to go long, with a stop loss at 64,100
After the data, it broke below 62,500 with increased volume, rebounded to 63,000 to test short prices, and stopped loss at 63,700
If it fluctuates between 63,000 and 65,000, just watch; being short is also a type of position
"If you don't meet the conditions, don't move"—I've told myself this phrase more than a hundred times, but every time I feel an itch to face the data, I have to silently repeat it again.
How do you plan to respond to non-farm payrolls today? Short positions and wait-and-see or are you planning to make a move? Let's talk in the comments $BTC $ETH In the coming years, the most valuable resource may not be BTC, but electricity.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but more and more mining companies have already started doing so.
They have gradually transformed mining farms, power resources, and even land into AI data centers.
Why?
Because with the same kWh, mining Bitcoin yields money from market cycles, while providing computing power to AI faces continuously growing demand.
Recently, there was another piece of data that surprised me quite a bit.
Bitcoin's 30-day average network hashrate has dropped from 1108 EH/s to 898 EH/s, marking nine consecutive months of decline with a cumulative decline of nearly 20%.
In the past, when mining power declined, people thought miners were just shutting down to avoid losses and waiting for the bull market to start again.
But this time, I don't think so.
Many mining companies have already started selling some BTC to raise funds for their AI business, indicating that some hash power may not be temporarily exiting, but permanently shifting to new tracks.
Of course, this does not mean Bitcoin is going to have problems.
The security of the Bitcoin network is fundamentally maintained by miners worldwide and will not fundamentally change just because a few listed mining companies transition.
But one thing is worth everyone's attention.
AI is taking away more and more electricity, chips, and computing resources.
The core of future market competition may not be just BTC, but who can control more energy and computing power.
This change is likely to become a new variable affecting the entire crypto market.
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? 📉 Stock Price and Trading Data
Close Plunge: AMD's stock price closed down about 7.04% that day, at $482.05.
Pre-market and Intraday Movement: Influenced by the earnings report, the stock opened sharply lower pre-market (with a drop exceeding 8% at one point), continued to face pressure after the open, and hit an intraday low of $478.20.
Capital Outflow: The daily trading volume expanded to 49.616 million shares, with a turnover of $24.13 billion, indicating clear profit-taking behavior.
📊 Core Reasons for the Market Decline
Guidance Falls Short of the "Most Optimistic" Expectations: Although AMD's Q2 2026 earnings report was very strong (revenue hit a record high of $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year; net profit surged 163% year-over-year), its midpoint revenue guidance for Q3 was $13 billion.
Market Demands "Accelerated Growth": While the $13 billion guidance exceeds Wall Street's average expectation of $12.5 billion, it failed to meet some aggressive analysts' upper limits of $13.5–14 billion. Given AMD's stock price has surged over 130% year-to-date, the market was buying into expectations of "accelerated growth," but the quarter-over-quarter growth guidance of only 13% was seen as maintaining the current pace, failing to signal an explosive acceleration in AI demand, which pressured valuations.
Gross Margin Outlook Raises Concerns: The company expects Q3 gross margin to remain steady at 56%, indicating that the high costs of early AI business deployment are diluting overall profitability. Investors' focus is shifting from "how fast growth is" to "how profitable growth is."
🔄 Market Capital Flow Divergence
Capital Concentrates on Leaders: AMD's sharp drop did not cause a full withdrawal of funds from the AI sector but triggered capital divergence within the sector. After profit-taking from AMD, funds flowed to AI absolute leader NVIDIA (which rose about 3.4% against the trend that day, achieving a five-day winning streak) and storage giant Micron Technology.
Sector-Wide Pressure: AMD's plunge also dragged down the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, causing the semiconductor sector to show a pattern of rising then falling that day.
💡 Summary
AMD's market performance on August 6 was a typical case of "good news fully priced in" and "expectation-driven valuation cuts." The market is re-examining the return efficiency of AI investments with a critical eye, no longer blindly buying into the "follower" narrative but demanding that every AI investment produce definite, accelerated returns in the present.Closed on August 6 Eastern Time (morning of August 7 Beijing time), with a full focus on the storage industry chain analysis. 1. Overnight Overview of U.S. Stocks All three major indices closed lower, with significant divergence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a concentrated sell-off due to previous record highs, leading the single-day decline; The Nasdaq index only edged down, but the strength of major tech giants offset the drag on the semiconductor sector. On the eve of the nonfarm payroll report, the market is generally cautious, trading sentiment has turned cautious, and the sector-to-high and low trends are evident. • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.85%, closed at 53,885.10, down 464.02 points for the day, ending a five-day winning streak • S&P 500: -0.18%, closed at 7,709.96; Eleven major sectors fell and three rose, with industrials and real estate leading the declines, while energy and healthcare bucked the trend and closed higher. • Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.06%, closing at 26,348.35, AI leaders like Nvidia strengthened to hedge the storage sector's adjustment pressure • Fear Index VIX: Edged up to 16.2, marginal rise in pre-farm payroll risk aversion • Trading characteristics: Value blue chips pull back on increased volume, technology sector overall shrinks in volume; The storage sector saw a significant intraday surge in trading volume, with panic selling in the morning and bottom-fishing funds in the afternoon engaging in intense competition, resulting in a significant narrowing of losses. Core features of the market: The storage sector staged a "V-shaped reversal," with a collective plunge at the opening due to earnings guidance falling short of expectations, and gradually recovering losses in the afternoon as capital acknowledged the industry's fundamentals; The overall market style briefly shifted, with a smooth lead in the earlier rallySpot ETFs have shifted $BTC valuation logic from sentiment-driven to liquidity-driven by advancing institutional balance sheet allocation. The core current conflict lies in the contest between macro liquidity tightening under Fed tightening expectations and the speed of institutional incremental capital inflows.
Prices are gradually moving away from the early sharp fluctuations triggered by retail investor sentiment and policy news, and are now deeply tied to US Treasury yields, US dollar liquidity, and institutional capital flows. Long-term capital buying from pension funds, sovereign funds, and other long-term funds in the spot market is reshaping the pricing center.
Currently, the priorities driving capital pricing are: macro liquidity supply and demand, net spot ETF inflow scale, and derivatives holdings. When valuation logic shifts to the total capital pool, the high volatility premium naturally declines.
The upward scenario is based on traditional institutional balance sheet expansion and marginal improvement in macro liquidity. If sovereign funds and pension funds accelerate their entry through spot channels, it will drive prices to break through previous high price ranges; This scenario requires close monitoring of the sustainability of net spot inflows; once incremental net inflows are interrupted, the upward logic fails.
The downside scenario stems from rising expectations of Fed monetary tightening, squeezing liquidity in risk assets. When macro risk-free yields remain high, institutions are less willing to allocate positions, and spot buying weakens, triggering a bullish stamp on derivatives; The scenario observes the trend of institutional capital outflows; if macro liquidity floods again, the downward trend ends.
The market debate over whether $BTC reach $200,000 or $500,000 ultimately depends on the shift in liquidity attributes. If it fully transforms into a defensive digital gold asset, the reduction in annualized volatility will flatten the upward momentum; If it retains its highly elastic risk asset attributes, the downside risk during liquidity squeezes is equally significant.
The key variable to watch over the next 7 days is the combination of U.S. Treasury yield trends and net fund flows from spot ETFs.
#财报观察员: Mixed Results, Unlocking Imminent! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in tandem? #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth?Everyone is waiting for initial jobless claims to cause an upset, so rate cut expectations can soar a bit longer. So what happened? 199,000, stuck below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, market expectation was 205,000, and the four-week average hit the lowest level since 2022. Recession trading was once again crushed and rubbed to the ground.
Even more glaring is the productivity data released at the same time: Q2 preliminary productivity was 1.4%, compared to the expected 0.6%; Unit labor costs rose by 1.3%, compared to the expected 2.1%. In plain terms: doing more work actually suppresses unit labor costs. This isn't a "fake health" caused by layoffs; it's that efficiency has truly improved. Employment hasn't collapsed, wage inflation pressure is less, so where does the Fed have the reason to cut rates quickly?
So last night, both US stocks and crypto felt quite awkward. Long-term US Treasuries were caught off guard, forcing rate cut trades to reprice. For $BTC, I think it's more neutral—if you say the economy is strong, there's no need for capital to come out for Bitcoin; If you say no rate cuts, the liquidity logic is weaker. For those hoping for initial data to ignite rate cuts, this cold water must be firmly answered.
The current division is also here: on one hand, they believe employment resilience = soft landing = risk assets are fine; On the other, they think the Fed has capital to delay, and the market's bet on rapid rate cuts will fall through, putting pressure on risk assets. To be honest, Friday was the real turning point on the non-farm payrolls. Today, chasing long or short is all gambling; if you win, you eat meat; if you lose, you get the so-called liquidation case others talk about—over a million USD, not because the data hurts people, but because your hands don't obey.
My own judgment: before the nonfarm payrolls come out, don't use the initial request to add drama to the rate cut story. With the labor market so stable, Powell has even less reason to be in a hurry to slack off. Do you believe in a soft landing, or do you believe the Fed will eventually be forced by the market to cut rates? I stand with the former.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added SOL market flash for today (2026-08-07).
- Current price: approximately 72.8 USDT (quoted at 07:06 $72.92, 24h −2.04%; intraday range 72.56–74.48, at the lower edge of the range)
- Major Cycle Positioning: $70–75 ranges in a range, daily below MA5 (73.67)/MA10 (73.52)/MA20 (74.82), 4-hour downward channel unbroken, each rebound with lower highs
- Short-term momentum: The 1H RSI has entered the oversold zone (%K≈11), but volume has shrunk (24h trading volume around 30 million USDT), indicating a weak consolidation characterized by "many declines but weak rebound"; Whales have recently moved about 226,000 SOL (~40 million USD) to CEX to suppress rebound potential
- Relative to BTC/ETH: Today's decline (−2%+) was significantly greater than BTC (−0.46%)/ETH (−0.15%), indicating high beta attributes to take the lead during pullbacks
Key Price Levels (Intraday)
- Resistance: 73.15–73.75 (1H Bollinger middle band + SMA7/EMA12) → 74.4–75.3 (SMA50 + intraday high + upper band of the descending channel) → 75.5–78.5 (strong resistance zone, 4H close above 75.3 before trend breakdown)
- Support: 72.5–72.7 (multiple lower shadows today) → 71–72 (lower edge of the box / psychological level) → 70 (July–August buying resistance; if broken, look for 68–65)
News (many catalysts but prices not reflected, pending confirmation)
- Deflation Control: Starting 8/3, SOL fee burn + inflation reduction proposals entered initial investment. Daily burns reduced from 650→9000 SOL to $1.36 billion over 6 years. Approval requires validation, and this is a mid- to long-term supply-side benefit that has not been priced in
- ETFs/Institutions: In July, US SOL ETFs saw net inflows for the entire month (BSOL cumulatively bought about 891.9 million), and Morgan Stanley MSOL was listed on NYSE Arca; However, from July 28, primary market inflows stagnated for five trading days, and short-term funds remained cautious
- Alpenglow upgrade: phased from August to October, finality 12.8s →150ms, mainnet has received BLS keys, the core narrative for the second half of the year
- Macro linkage: Same as BTC—tonight's non-farm payroll + CLARITY Act vote, SOL volatility amplification is about 1.5–2× BTC
Trading Recommendations (Sell low and buy high intraday, defend at 70)
SOL is currently at the lower edge of the 70–75 box + a descending channel, with selling pressure above 73 still unresolved. Principle: light connection at the lower edge, bearish middle band, and no resistance if the 70 breaks down.
- Long pullback: pullback 72.5–72.7, stabilized (15min long decline after shadow, closed bullish, not breaking 72.5); → light long, TP 73.3 / 73.7, SL 72.2.
- Rebound shorts: touches 73.7–74.4 with shrinking volume and stagnation (1H upper shadow + RSI not above 50) → light shorts, TP 72.8 / 72.5, SL 74.7.
- Break out: On a 1-hour increase, the physical price rose above 75.3→ followed long positions to 75.8–76.5, reduced positions, SL at 74.6; only if the daily chart stabilized above 75.5 should 78–80 be considered, not chased early.
- Short break: Below 72.5 and 1H close confirmation→ follow short to 71.5/70.5, SL 73.0; if it breaks below 70 integer level, the structure weakens to 68–65, firmly not averaging.
- Positions: Single ≤ 3–4% margin (SOL pin insertion rate higher than BTC/ETH), short or reduced positions in the first 2 hours of non-farm payrolls; Trades in the 72.5–73 range with easy pin insertion and scan orders, leaving slippage on pending orders.
⚠️ The above is a short-term technical strategy, not investment advice. SOL high beta + whale transfers + ETF inflows stagnant triple stacking, once the daily close breaks below 70, downside space will quickly open, and stop-losses are a must.
$SOL ，$BICO ，$GRVT Can an asset that is increasingly resembling gold still maintain its previous frenzy? This question is actually more important for BTC than price guessing.
In the past, BTC's greatest value came from "uncertainty."
In 2013, many thought it was just an internet experiment; In 2017, large amounts of capital first recognized Bitcoin; After 2020, institutions began entering the market.
Each stage of the rise is essentially a form of cognitive diffusion.
Previously, BTC buyers made money "before others believed in it."
But now the situation has changed.
After ETFs were approved, BTC began to enter the traditional financial system, with more and more institutions treating it as an asset allocation tool. Companies like MicroStrategy put BTC on their balance sheets, funds started allocating BTC exposures, and the market's acceptance of it was completely different from a few years ago.
This is actually BTC's greatest success.
But it was also the biggest change.
Because when an asset gains recognition from more and more people, its logic of price increases will also change.
In the past, BTC's rise was driven by sentiment.
A piece of news.
A policy.
A wave of retail investor FOMO.
All of these could drive prices up rapidly.
But now BTC is increasingly like a macro asset.
It has begun to be influenced by dollar liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, and institutional capital flows.
This is also why many people develop the illusion:
"Why isn't BTC as crazy as it used to be?"
Because it is undergoing an identity transformation.
In the past, buying BTC in the market was a gamble on the future.
Now, buying BTC in the market means allocating an asset that has already been validated.
The biggest difference between the two is:
The former is priced based on imagination.
The latter is priced based on the scale of capital.
Of course, this does not mean BTC has no room to rise in the future.
On the contrary, if more pensions, institutional funds, and sovereign funds enter in the future, Bitcoin could gain a pool of funds unimaginable in the past.
But the problem is:
When an asset changes from a "rebel" to an "institutional allocation," can it still maintain its early tens of times growth?
This is the biggest contradiction for BTC's future.
Many people are still debating whether BTC can reach $200,000 or $500,000.
But I think the real issue worth paying attention to is:
Will BTC eventually become a new kind of gold, or will it forever retain the high volatility and high growth attributes of the crypto market?
If it becomes digital gold, it will gain longer-lasting vitality, but the pace of increase may slow down.
If it still maintains its risk asset attributes, it will still have significant volatility opportunities.
The biggest change in BTC has never been how much the price has risen up.
Rather, it is shifting from an "experiment challenging traditional finance" to a part traditional finance must face.
Price determines short-term gains, status determines long-term value.
DYOR。 $BTC 📉 $OKB 4H Chart Analysis
OKB is trading at 85.41, down 0.65% on the session after a steady slide from the 87.50 swing high earlier in the week, with price now pushing to new local lows on the current candle.
Price & Moving Averages:
Price at 85.41 is trading below MA5 at 85.76, MA10 at 85.86, and MA20 at 86.20, with all three averages now sloping downward after rolling over from the highs. This stacked alignment, price below MA5 below MA10 below MA20, reflects a clean downtrend that's developed steadily over the last several candles.
Volume:
The current 4H candle shows 4.30k OKB (367.34k USDT) traded. Volume has been fairly steady through the decline, with a few larger red bars appearing on the sharper down candles, pointing to consistent selling pressure rather than a single sharp flush.
MACD:
DIF is at -0.15 and DEA is at -0.04, with MACD at -0.22. Both lines have moved into negative territory and DIF sits below DEA, with the histogram holding a steady run of red bars that have been building since the rollover from the highs. This tracks closely with the sustained nature of the decline rather than a sharp, sudden move.
Key Levels:
87.50 is the swing high and the resistance well above current price. 84.81 marks the swing low and the support just below current price. MA5 at 85.76 and MA10 at 85.86 sit just overhead as the nearest resistance to reclaim, with MA20 at 86.20 as the deeper level above that.
Overall Structure:
OKB remains in a steady downtrend off the 87.50 high, with price, moving averages, and MACD all aligned to the downside. The next thing to watch is whether the 84.81 support holds or gives way to further downside.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck On August 7, Sandisk's cycle stocks showed sharp volatility after earnings reports, combined with hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, resulting in significant risks on both sides. Market Overview: After the earnings report was released, the market was the first to plunge after the market closed; During the regular trading session on August 6, the opening low was $1163, with a maximum drawdown close to 14%. It rebounded after hitting a bottom during the session, closing at $1258.58, down 6.81%. A V-shaped intraday pattern: the market opened with negative earnings reports released, panic selling pressure released, and funds entered to take over, but failed to recover the key moving average. The closing price remained below the 20-day moving average, indicating that the negative news was digested but had not reversed. 1. Three Layers of Driving Forces 🔻 for Today's Market: Core of the Decline: Poor Earnings Expectations (Main Bearish Forces) 1. Q4 earnings showed revenue, EPS, and gross margin all exceeded expectations, and a $14 billion stock buyback plan was also launched; However, the median revenue guidance for Q1 fiscal year 2027 fell short of Wall Street's consensus expectations, with a noticeable slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth, which is the root cause of the sell-off. The market has fully priced in the high growth of the storage supercycle. At the high level of the cycle, merely having "very good performance" is not enough; it must continue to accelerate beyond expectations. Consumer business declined 32% quarter-on-quarter, heightening market concerns about demand divergence. 2. Huge profit-taking in earlier periods: The year-to-date gains have been huge, and there was already a deep pullback in July. The chips are already unstable, and the guidance falls short of expectations, triggering concentrated take-profit exits. ✅ Support force for the intraday V-shaped rebound 1. 10 billion yuan buyback expectation as a bottom: 14 billion yuan buybacks provide a safety cushion for stock prices; after a sharp drop, some funds will enter the market to gamble on buybacksUS spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in a net $244M on Aug 5, with BlackRock’s IBIT dominating at $197M — a clear sign that institutional risk appetite is rotating back into BTC after the recent shakeout, per SoSoValue. 📊
Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw demand, adding $60.86M net, with BlackRock’s ETHA grabbing $50.34M of that flow. Notably, ETHA is doing the heavy lifting while several other ETH funds remain in the red — concentration in one issuer is a theme worth watching. 🧐
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $15T in AUM as of Q2 2026, is effectively setting the tone across both BTC and ETH spot products. Its dominance suggests that traditional capital is entering crypto through the most established gateway, not through fringe vehicles. 🏦
The takeaway: flows are positive but narrowly led. Momentum is real, yet sustained inflows beyond top tickers will be the key metric to monitor. 🔍Has storage really reached its peak?
The storage sector is experiencing a "performance killing"
SanDisk's $SNDK and Western Digital outperformed expectations across the board, but plunged over 9%-15% in after-hours trading, with SK Hynix, Samsung, and others also plunging as a result.
This bizarre scenario—"the more impressive the performance, the more aggressive the sell-offs"—has been recurring recently.
Has it really peaked? The answer is: fundamentals have not peaked; AI demand remains strong, but market expectations have already "peaked."
The reasons are:
1. Expectation Overdraw: The stock price has already priced in high earnings, and the positive news is exhausted immediately after the earnings report is released.
2. Concerns about sustainability: High profits represent the peak of the cycle caused by supply-demand mismatches, and the market fears that growth will slow and overcapacity will follow.
3. The elephant's dance is hard to sustain: Doubling growth is hard to sustain long-term, and valuation logic has been phased out by 'killing.'
In the short term, the market is in a phase of emotional clearing and valuation reversion, with significant risk of game competition; However, the long-term logic supported by AI remains unbroken, so patience is needed for a new cycle after panic selling ends.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added #财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
Review the losing orders daily on the ninth day
Boss Shi's little fanboy!!
Please call me the Chinese server trader, even though today is also a day of instant noodles
🚀 A roller coaster rally is underway! The first financial report after listing has been released: revenue soared, while unlocking shares worth hundreds of billions of dollars is pressing in, with the bullish and bearish battle reaching a fever pitch.
📈✅ [Impressive Report]
▪️Q2 total revenue: $7.814 billion 💵, a 92% year-on-year increase, far exceeding market expectations
▪️ Net loss narrowed to $541 million 📉, a 46% reduction year-on-year, with profitability continuing to improve
▪️ Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion ✨, a year-on-year surge of 191%; With tens of billions in cash reserves in hand, the company has a solid foundation
▪️ Starlink users grew rapidly, AI business revenue doubled quarter-on-quarter, and all three major businesses expanded across the board
⚠️ [Hidden Worries Are Also Eye-Catching]
▪️ Quarterly capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion 🔥, with $15.8 billion invested in AI computing power, burning cash at a pace far outpacing revenue growth
▪️ An epic unlocking window has already opened 🔓, with the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, corresponding to a market value exceeding $100 billion. The unlocking scale far exceeds the current tradable shares, and the risk of early shareholders and employees taking profits looms.
▪️ Despite the positive financial reports, stock prices plunged after hours, and as the positive news materialized, funds began to cautiously avoid risks.
🤔 How will this unfold next?
Bullish logic: Starlink continues to generate revenue, with hundreds of billions in cash sufficient to support R&D, and the AI + aerospace dual tracks have huge potential potential, with long-term growth stories unbroken.
Risk logic: There is no clear timetable for when massive capital expenditures will converge. The lifting of restrictions will lead to a surge in chip supply, which will amplify short-term stock price volatility. If market support is insufficient, selling pressure will quickly suppress valuations.
In the short term, the unlocking will intensify sharp stock price fluctuations, leading to fierce battles between bulls and bears; In the medium to long term, the core trend of stock prices depends on two factors: whether the AI business can gradually break even, and the progress of Starship's commercialization. The growth story is beautiful, but it also comes with a high valuation and a risk cost.
Do you think SpaceX will face a sell-off after the lock-up is lifted, or will the negative news have all been sold and reverse?After the founder left, the successor was sued by the estate side
On the evening of August 6, a Delaware court received a complaint. The complaint was filed by the estate administrator of Nathan Allman, founder of tokenization company Ondo Finance, targeting the company's former president, Ian De Bode. The claim was written very plainly: asking the court to determine who legally controls the company and maintains the status quo.
Let's rewind more than two months. On May 26, Ondo posted an announcement on social media announcing the unexpected passing of founder Nathan Allman. In the same announcement, longtime president Ian De Bode was announced as CEO. The wording was dignified: Nathan's talent, humility, and drive shaped Ondo today, and continuing the business he founded was the most meaningful tribute.
Back then, no one thought there was more to it. The industry's reaction was mostly regret, and they also discussed what would happen if the RWA track lost a core driver.
Now the estate presents a different version. They accuse De Bode of illegally gaining control of the company after the founder's death. More subtle, they explain the process themselves: initially they worked with De Bode, later reorganized the board, and then voted to remove him. So now both sides stick to their own versions: one side believes the board resolution is legal and valid, while the other side will most likely claim the restructuring itself is invalid. Who decides is up to the courts.
I think the most striking aspect of this case isn't the dispute itself. Company control lawsuits happen hundreds of times a year in traditional business, which is nothing new. What stands out is who the company is suing this lawsuit.
Ondo is tokenizing U.S. Treasuries, and it's among the leading figures in this round of RWA narratives. Its whole story is about on-chain, transparent, verifiable, and trust-free without relying on any single intermediary. OUSG targets institutions, USDY targets on-chain portfolios, products are deployed across multiple chains, and the circulating market value of tokens is in the billions of dollars. This isn't a small company; control hangs in the balance, and it's not just a few board members' titles that matter.
Now, the decision of who manages this company itself is up to a court in Delaware.
The gap in between is worth pondering. What can be proven on-chain is actually very limited. It can prove that a transfer has occurred, or how many assets an address holds, but it cannot prove whether the person behind the address is still alive, nor can it prove who they left their authority to. Equity, board seats, wills, inheritance—all these are off-chain, all operated by a set of centuries-old rules.
That same week, Wells Fargo was preparing to launch corporate tokenized deposits in the fall, Japan's JPYC secured a new round of financing, preparing to pay freight for 2,300 truck drivers. The entire industry is moving toward traditional financial territory. Only after moving there do they realize that their estate law, company law, and court jurisdiction are all unavoidable.
So I want to ask: a company that puts trust into its code ultimately relies on the courts to determine who is the boss. What have we actually put onto the chain over the years?#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
Review the losing orders daily on the ninth day
Boss Shi's little fanboy!!
Please call me the Chinese server trader, even though today is also a day of instant noodles
🔔 With the Q2 earnings report, Circle delivered a contradictory answer: USDC's 📊 on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%, but revenue heavily depends on reserve interest, and growth bottlenecks are gradually emerging during the rate-cutting cycle.
Facing the ceiling, Circle is betting all its assets on its self-developed public chain Arc. The next round of USDC's growth will hinge on success or failure.
✅ The financial report reveals two major realities:
▪️USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion 💵, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with institutional transfer activity rising significantly and capital turnover rates continuing to rise.
▪️ Risk points: Over 90% of revenue comes from reserve interest 💸. Once the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, profits will be directly under pressure, making the single income structure highly risky.
Arc is Circle's trump card ⚙️ to break through, with its mainnet expected to launch on September 16. Unlike ordinary public chains, Arc is USDC's native infrastructure, directly using USDC to pay gas fees, focusing on second-level settlement, on-chain FX FX engine, and enterprise cross-border payment network CPN.
Its goal is no longer just to issue stablecoins, but to build an on-chain financial operating system that integrates cross-border settlement, tokenized assets, and AI-agent payments all on the network, earning network fees and breaking the heavy dependence on interest income.
🤔 But the challenges are equally visible ⚠️
1. Arc has not yet officially launched, all business remains at the testnet stage, and the actual implementation results for institutional clients have yet to be verified;
2. Competition in the stablecoin sector is intensifying, with peers continuously capturing market share, causing USDC's market share to decline slightly;
3. Traditional SWIFT and banking systems will not easily give up the cross-border payment market; compliance and ecosystem building will take a long time.
📌 What is the outlook for the market?
If the Arc mainnet successfully launches and enterprise and RWA tokenization businesses are implemented on a large scale, USDC will upgrade from a "trading tool" to a global settlement foundation, unlocking huge growth potential. But if the ecosystem's cold start falls short of expectations, Circle's transformation story will be questionable.
Do you think Arc can truly take USDC to the forefront, or is it just another conceptual narrative? Share your thoughts in the comments!非农大考来临，美股后市推演
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
🔹情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
🔹情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
🔹情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
🇺🇸重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
🔺动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
👁️等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
⚡资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
🌐 $BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
📜 $ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
🌌 $SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
🤖 $TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
🎚️ $HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
🐕 $DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度牛市的两个信号，现在全部就位！
过去两轮加密超级牛市，都需要同时满足：ISM制造业＞55
罗素2000突破新高
16年，20年，两次应验，市值迎来爆炸式上涨
去年全年ISM持续低于50，条件一直不成立
如今ISM 55.6，罗素2000再创历史新高
历史剧本再度上演
一轮大级别牛市，可能就在未来数月开启。
千万不要倒在黎明前，请拿稳比特币。⛏️ Mining for a year isn't enough to pay interest! This mining company sold 1,619 BTC at a loss
Late at night, mining machines roared, but the BTC on hand was nearly depleted.
According to the financial report, mining company Cipher Digital sold 1,619 BTC last quarter, cashing out about $123.4 million, while also confirming a $47.7 million loss. This is not taking profits at high levels, but selling coins to fill the gap.
What's even more heartbreaking is that quarterly mining revenue is only $24.8 million, but interest expenses are as high as $66.7 million—for every $1 earned, $2.7 in interest is paid. As of the end of June, the company had only 646 BTC left, with a quarterly net loss of $23.5 million.
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📌 Many brothers think miners are faith-driven people who "only dig, not sell," but the reality is:
Mining is a high-leverage, asset-heavy business—mining machines rely on financing, and electricity bills are settled monthly. When the coin price moves sideways, cash flow collapses first. Miners selling coins isn't necessarily bearish; more often, it's just to survive.
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🔍 Next, keep a close eye on a core indicator:
The difference between the monthly coin sales volume and coin production volume of mining companies
· Selling > mining → Continuous selling pressure remains
· Only by selling < and mining → can the supply side truly breathe a sigh of relief
Miners selling coins is a short-term selling pressure, and in the long run, it's an industry clearance. After high-cost players are eliminated, the remaining mining companies may be healthier.
---
💭 Here's the question:
If even miners who understand BTC's costs best are selling at a loss, do you think this is a red flag, or the final reshuffle before a new major market rally?
🤔 If it were you, would you buy the dip when miners surrender?
Share your reasons in the comments, let's have a clash.
#BTC #矿工 #加密市场 #抄底还是逃顶 #DYOR🤗 Extra: Clear Bill—Republicans themselves defect, Moran sides with banks against the Clear Bill.
🇺🇸 Republican Senator Jerry Moran suddenly changed his stance, announcing a vote against the Clarity Act, citing banks' concerns that stablecoins would siphon deposits and that compliance costs would be too high.
Now things got lively—Democrats had already collectively opposed the Trump family's ethical rules, and now the Republican camp is splitting too. If Moran defects, Thune's already insufficient 60 votes are in jeopardy.
Impact on cryptocurrencies: Positive news delayed, not positive news turning negative.
Short term: $BTC will continue to fluctuate between 61,000 and 64,000 yuan, $ETH/$SOL weaker, knockoff memes hurt the most, but don't believe in the zero-down theory, the market has already priced prices in August and won't pass.
Mid-term: GENIUS stablecoin law has been signed, stablecoins have laws to protect them, and the clear bill only fills the gap between $BTC/$ETH and whether it's a commodity or a security. If it's gone wrong = institutions should slow down, not a bull market cancellation
Long-term: Banks lobby Moran to turn back, which proves stablecoins are truly competing for deposits. The nature of crypto payments is recognized by traditional finance, $BTC the commodity nature is already fixed, and the direction remains unchanged, only at a slower pace.
Hey: Comrades 😔, let's keep pretending to sleep 😌.The loss pressure from US mining companies' earnings reports is transmitted to the crypto market, suppressing risk appetite and causing the market to stalemate between main selling pressure and local rebounds.
CleanSpark's net loss of $240 million and MARA's net loss of $611 million raised concerns over cost squeezes, while $PLUME rose 16% within 24 hours against the trend.
Capital flight from the US mining sector has raised concerns about supply-side liquidity sell-offs, with cross-market funds rapidly competing between main assets and smaller coins.
Cost pressures on the US side directly increase Bitcoin's supply demand. If the main asset cannot absorb selling pressure, it becomes increasingly difficult for smaller coins to maintain liquidity alone.
For the market to establish an upward continuation, Bitcoin needs to quickly reclaim key moving averages and increase trading volume, thereby driving a recovery in overall risk appetite.
If selling pressure continues to transmit and PLUME fails to hold the $0.01 support level, short-term outflows will confirm the failure of this round of rebound.
Whether selling pressure in the US mining sector will spread to the overall US assets is the main point of disagreement breaking the current cross-market deadlock.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the key moving average with high volume.
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increased staked ETH #闪迪财报双超预期, added $14 billion in repurchase authorization #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halvedThe latest financial report shows SanDisk's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $8.97 billion, up 372% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of $8.394 billion; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $39.25, with gross margin rising to 84.6%. From a business structure perspective, data centers became the most prominent growth engine, with quarterly revenue of $2.98 billion, up 1298% year-on-year and 103% quarter-on-quarter; edge computing business revenue was $5.43 billion, up 392% year-on-year. In contrast, consumer business revenue was $556 million, down 5% year-on-year and 32% quarter-on-quarter, adding a cool tone to the attractive financial statements.
What truly makes investors hesitate is the company's outlook for the next fiscal quarter. SanDisk expects revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to be $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of about $10.55 billion, below analysts' expectations of $11.16 billion; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be $44 to $46, with a median of $45, also slightly below market expectations. In other words, the fourth quarter is like a fireworks show, but the guidance has failed to ignite the already elevated market imagination. Some institutions subsequently lowered their target prices, reflecting short-term valuation absorption pressure.
However, SanDisk has not failed to present a "long-term story." The company's board approved a new $14 billion stock repurchase plan, bringing the total remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion. At the same time, the company repeatedly emphasizes the significance of the new long-term business model agreements: it has signed related long-term agreements with eight data center and edge computing customers, expecting a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, and has already locked in more than half of capacity for fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal year 2028. Management hopes to use this to change the NAND industry's previous short-cycle model of quarterly bargaining and quarterly supply, giving the business over four years of demand visibility.
From an industry perspective, the rapid advancement of AI inference and agent AI is pushing storage from a "supporting role" to a core part of infrastructure. SanDisk's management stated that storage demand growth has clearly outpaced the company's supply capacity, and supply and demand remain tight; Some industry views also believe that memory is one of the main bottlenecks in the AI boom, with demand expanding much faster than supply growth. But on the other hand, it must also be noted that consumer electronics' ability to bear prices is declining, and the weakness in consumer business reminds the market that no matter how strong AI data center demand is, it cannot completely erase the natural fluctuations of cyclical industries.
Therefore, the main factors affecting SanDisk's recent performance are not a single economic data or sudden global event, but rather the combined effects of the financial report structure, guidance for the next fiscal quarter, AI storage demand, long-term protocol credibility, and storage price cycles. Better-than-expected results indicate strong profitability, while guidance below expectations indicates the market had already been fully optimistic. The so-called "buy expectations, sell facts" became quite typical after this financial report.
In terms of investment, short-term investors should not focus solely on chasing high quarterly growth; they should pay more attention to whether actual deliveries in the next fiscal quarter are close to the upper bound of guidance, whether gross margins can remain high, and whether the consumer business continues to face pressure. Medium- to long-term investors can focus on the execution of NBM long-term agreements as a core observation point: if long-term contracts are fulfilled smoothly, SanDisk's valuation logic may shift from traditional cyclical stocks to storage platforms with higher cash flow visibility; If prices peak or demand slows, valuations may still face recalibration. Overall, it is advisable to observe in batches and control positions, and not to go all in when expectations swing sharply#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
SpaceX's first financial report after listing shows a typical 'ice and fire' pattern.
Starlink, as a cash business, performed solidly, with AI business revenue growing rapidly, and overall revenue and loss reduction both exceeding market expectations. However, capital expenditure in the AI computing power sector remained high, and the pace of cash burning has not slowed, causing market divergence over investment return cycles. Immediately after, a large-scale unlocking of hundreds of billions was launched, becoming the biggest short-term variable.
Bullish view: The fundamental growth logic holds true. Starlink provides stable cash flow, and high investment in AI is a necessary price for sector expansion. The selling pressure from unlocking the ban has already been priced in by the market in advance.
Bearish view: Even if business improves, the massive unlocking of tokens will greatly increase supply. Early investors have very low holding costs and strong willingness to cash out, so sustained high capital expenditures will continuously consume cash flow.
My view is fundamentally sound, but that doesn't mean you can directly reverse the game.
The financial report only proves the company's growth capability but cannot offset the supply shock caused by the lock-up lift.
Unlocking does not guarantee a crash, but it will significantly suppress the rebound's momentum. The key going forward is the actual scale of share reduction and the strength of market support, so blind bottom-fishing is not advisable.
Also, don't treat SPCX as a BTC barometer; it mainly represents the risk appetite of global AI growth stocks and cannot determine the overall direction of crypto assets.
If SpaceX withstands the pressure of unlocking and stabilizes, it will help boost sentiment among AI narrative coins; If stock prices continue to weaken and risk appetite shrinks, the crypto market will also be dragged down by sentiment. But the overall rally is still dominated by US Treasury yields. $SPCX
SpaceX's performance today must have surprised many people
But it's clear the market is following the pre-report approach: as a clear event, the market has already discovered prices in advance, and the short-term trading point in the earnings report has also experienced huge ups and downs
As a long-term holder, I shouldn't pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations, but being in the market, the recent market battles have been indeed exciting, so I can't help but keep an eye on them
Of course, as always, the pressure to unlock is real, and there will be several more releases in the coming months. There's no need to think today is the turning point for the bulls' victory; it's more appropriate to treat these months as opportunities to build positions#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
This earnings season is seeing a clear signal: the market is no longer satisfied with "earnings beating expectations," but is now trading "whether the next earnings report can continue to beat expectations."
AMD and SanDisk delivered solid results, but their stock prices remain cautious—not because of poor earnings, but because high valuations have already priced in market expectations. If AI demand, corporate capital expenditure, or earnings guidance slow down even slightly, high valuations will face repricing.
Palantir, on the other hand, follows a different logic. The market is willing to continue offering premiums not only because of high revenue growth but also because management has raised its full-year guidance again, convincing investors that the growth story is far from over. Therefore, what truly drives the stock price up is not the profits already realized, but the further opening of future profit potential.
SpaceX is no different. The first financial report proves that its main business remains highly competitive, with revenue growth and narrowing losses being positive signs. However, AI-related capital support continues to increase, and with the unlocking window for restricted shares approaching, the market is more likely to engage in short-term competition over funding supply and fulfillment pressure, rather than fundamentals itself. As long as new selling pressure exists, capital sentiment often suppresses stock performance.
Circle is betting on the Arc mainnet, hoping to upgrade USDC from a transactional stablecoin to an institutional financial infrastructure. If Arc can truly implement stablecoin payments, RWA, and on-chain settlement, then the future trading will not be about how much Circle earned this quarter, but how much USDC can continue to grow in the coming years.
For the capital market, the focus was on whether "performance exceeded expectations" in the past; now, the focus is more on "whether growth can continue to be revised upward."
When liquidity tightens and valuations are generally high, capital will focus more on the company's growth potential over the next 12 or even 24 months, rather than on historical data that has already been delivered. Financial reports are just the answer; guidance determines valuation; Profits determine the lower bound, expectations determine the upper bound.
This logic also applies to the crypto market. Whether it's the BTC ecosystem, AI track, RWA, or stablecoins, the ones that can truly attract funds in the future are not necessarily the fastest-rising projects right now, but those assets that can keep delivering growth and raising market expectations.
#SpaceX #AMD #Circle #USDC #Palantir #AI #CryptoMarket