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#Employment data released intensively, Powell's policy stance under scrutiny
My mid-term logic is like watching this week's employment data as if it's an exam paper—Powell just slammed the table at Jackson Hole: inflation hasn't truly returned to 2%, as long as employment doesn't collapse, the rate hike sword remains hanging overhead.
The old lazy formula "weak employment = rate cuts" has been dismantled by him. In his current framework, unless employment deteriorates to the point where the unemployment rate spikes to 4.2% and nonfarm payrolls turn negative, rate hikes won't be stopped; instead, ISM service prices and weekly initial jobless claims are the real triggers.
Before this week's nonfarm payrolls, there are ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims setting the stage. As long as the numbers don't plummet, Powell's rhetoric of "there's still work to do" holds, the odds of a September rate hike won't drop, US Treasuries and the dollar stay strong, while gold and tech get hit. For a real reversal, employment must truly collapse.
Mid-term guy's one sentence: don't read the old script, this old man doesn't look at appearances but at the scale, data speaks, let's adjust our positions accordingly!
Currently $BTC and $ETH continue to oscillate around 78000 and 2450 respectively, this week will most likely reveal the direction! $SOL After two months, Strategy has finally started buying back Bitcoin again. According to reports, this time they bought about 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, with a total cost of approximately $369.7M. Buy low, sell high, brothers, if you get it, applause 🤡
Alright, no more jokes. Actually, the real state of treasury companies is never one-sided. They need to buy coins to establish BTC exposure per share, and also need to sell coins to raise cash, support preferred stock, repurchase shares, pay dividends, and handle financing windows. The kind of never-sell approach Saylor had before is actually unhealthy and unscientific.
So looking on the bright side, Strategy's recent buyback shows the company still believes BTC is a core asset. It also proves it’s no longer a single-threaded machine that only issues $MSTR and buys $BTC, but rather a multi-pronged approach combining BTC + stock premium + preferred stock dividends + cash management #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 Just after the Jackson Hole speech by Waugh, the employment data this week will intensively test him.
He believes that the 4.1% unemployment rate is close to full employment, financial conditions are not tight, and inflation is the primary issue. A slight improvement in summer data does not mean the trend has improved. The market has directly raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 50-60%.
July's non-farm payrolls already showed negative growth, and August is expected to rebound to around 50,000. If the actual data continues to be weak, will his logic of "no employment problem, the problem is inflation" be contradicted by the data, or will he continue to explain it with demographic structure?
For crypto, the key is not the strength of a single number, but how interest rate expectations are repriced. Risk assets are now clearly more sensitive to this line. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC Oil prices have risen due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, U.S. stock futures have weakened, and interest rate trading has also started to lean toward tighter conditions. For the crypto market, this combination is usually troublesome. Rising oil prices disrupt inflation expectations; if inflation doesn't come down, monetary policy will struggle to quickly shift to easing, and capital will naturally reduce high-volatility positions first.
BTC is still hovering around $78,000, with no expected sell-off occurring. It closed near $62,900 at the end of July, and now the increase has exceeded 24%. This rise has withstood an external stress test. I tend to see this as bulls still having confidence rather than the market being safe.
Next, the market will focus on around $80,000. This is close to the 50-week moving average, roughly at $81,000. It acts like a cycle temperature line; once it holds, capital will be more willing to treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. If it repeatedly fails to break through, early profit-takers are likely to see this as an exit zone.
On the chart, around $77,000 is a short-term defense level. If the price stays above here, there is still a chance to test $79,000 to $80,000 again. If support fails, $75,500 and $74,300 may come into view sequentially.
The range from $82,000 to $83,000 will determine whether this rally can move from a recovery phase to a stronger trend segment.
The most interesting thing about BTC right now is that it hasn't immediately bowed under macro pressure. Bulls holding $80,000 is the prerequisite to talk about higher levels $BTC
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice)Strategy just resumed Bitcoin buying after a 10-week pause. 👀
Between Aug. 24–30, Strategy reportedly added 4,603 BTC for $369.7M, averaging $80,318 per coin.
The interesting part isn't simply the purchase — it's the financing model behind it. When MSTR trades at a strong premium, issuing shares can provide capital to acquire BTC. When that premium weakens, the economics of raising capital become less attractive.
$BTC #BTCGoldCorrelation The most interesting point in the market right now:
It's not that no one is buying,
but that the buy and sell sides are in a game of tug-of-war.
On one side, institutions are continuously accumulating.
BlackRock's IBIT has recently been steadily increasing its BTC holdings, having bought tens of thousands of bitcoins in the short term, indicating that traditional capital still has allocation demand at this level.
At the same time, the long-standing redemption pressure on GBTC is gradually easing.
This means one of the biggest sources of selling pressure in the market is slowly weakening.
But don't rush to shout "taking off immediately."
The market never rises immediately just because funds come in.
Institutional buying is more about medium- to long-term asset allocation; they are looking at the value years from now, not a big bullish candle today.
In the short term, what really determines the price is still liquidity and market sentiment.
Currently, BTC inventory on exchanges remains high, and some chips could turn into selling pressure at any time.
Also, although the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a high level, it is still in the greed zone.
This shows market sentiment hasn't cooled off; momentum-chasing funds are still in the market.
Many people see ETF net inflows and assume the next stop is a new high.
But the most dangerous time in a bull market is often when everyone is unanimously bullish.
The current market looks more like:
Institutional funds supporting the bottom,
Profit-taking chips suppressing the top.
Want a big drop? There's not enough bad news;
Want a surge? There's no new incremental funds to take over.
So, in the short term, it's most likely to remain a consolidation and shakeout.
Repeated spikes,
Clearing leverage,
Digesting floating chips.
A truly healthy rise is never when everyone is making money, but when weak hands' chips are passed to more determined holders through continuous fluctuations.
Spot trading should continue to focus on core assets:
$BTC
$ETH
$OKB
Don't let short-term volatility disrupt your rhythm.
For contract trading, control your position size even more; with long and short forces balanced now, heavy bets on direction can easily make you a target for market harvesting.
Be patient and wait for trend selection; opportunities always belong to those with bullets and discipline. Wall Street is trying to truly measure crypto as a complete asset class. On August 31, CME Group and CF Benchmarks officially launched two multi-asset crypto indices: CME CF Crypto Market Index CME CF Emerging Crypto Index. The former covers a broader range of mainstream digital assets, while the latter is more interesting—directly excluding $BTC and $ETH, tracking only 10 eligible large emerging crypto assets. Both indices use free-float market cap weighting, with real-time versions updated about once every second and calculated continuously throughout the year. What is truly worth watching is not "Crypto has two more indices." But why CME specifically created a version that excludes BTC and ETH. 1. Wall Street has started to measure "markets other than BTC and ETH" separately. In the past, when institutions discussed crypto, they often essentially talked about BTC and ETH. BTC stands for digital gold, ETH stands for smart contracts and on-chain ecosystems, and the large number of altcoins left behind are often seen as a large group of assets with high volatility, high risk, and difficulty in pricing uniformly. But this time, CME did something interesting: removing BTC and ETH, and then establishing an institutional-level benchmark specifically for the remaining crypto market. In other words, Wall Street is seriously answering a question that didn't exist beforeAI earnings continue: Dell reports Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2. Hardware will test whether custom AI chips, networking and server orders sustain growth, profit and cash flow. Software will show whether cloud-data demand creates steadier subscription and usage revenue. Nvidia validated compute demand; focus now is whether AI spending spreads from chips into servers, networking and enterprise software, supporting broader tech valuations. Share your view under this topic.Is a big explosion coming in September $BTC
Wash has already left a backdoor for himself. What he emphasized at Jackson Hole in the end was a “commitment to a discipline, not to a decision.” I only promise you “I follow the rules,” but I will never guarantee in advance “the next meeting will definitely cut rates, and by how much.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 📰 【The crypto-stock meme coin Artificial Inu has become the actual "platform coin" of Long.xyz, with the former's market cap briefly nearing $200 million to hit a new high】
According to BlockBeats, on September 1, per GMGN market data, the crypto-stock meme coin Artificial Inu (AI) briefly reached a market cap close to $200 million today, setting a new high, currently reported at $167 million, with a 24-hour increase of 96.06%. Artificial Inu is issued through the Robinhood chain issuance platform Long.xyz, paired with Nvidia stock. Long.xyz has repeatedly posted on its official Twitter about using platform fees to repurchase Artificial Inu tokens. Today, Long.xyz announced the launch of LongX Expansion. The new feature will Li...
So all the Nvidia concepts and crypto-stock betting are just a facade; Long.xyz repurchases AI daily with transaction fees, effectively making it a core platform asset. The market cap rose to $200 million then fell back, indicating that investors buy into the repurchase narrative and short-term hype, but this kind of market driven by forced platform buybacks will fall quickly once the repurchase pace slows. Are there any friends in the comments who are on board or actively called this wave? Share your current position strategies?
$BTC $ETH $XAG $BZ
🛢️Crude Oil Projection for the Next Decade (For logical sharing only, not investment advice)
Mainstream baseline scenario: No prolonged decade-long bull market, but rather a large range-bound oscillation.
2026‑2028: Brent price center at $70‑85, new capacity released in concentration;
2029‑2033: Earlier underinvestment becomes apparent, center rises to $80‑95, frequent geopolitical pulses causing spikes;
2034‑2036: Energy transition pressures gradually emerge, center slightly falls to $75‑90.
Optimistic scenario reaches $90‑110 mid-period, pessimistic center drops to $60‑75.
Key factors to watch: oil company capital expenditures, shale oil elasticity, OPEC+ policies, electric vehicle penetration, emerging market oil demand.⚠️Not investment advice
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC family, this September, the US stock market might be about to change dramatically!
Federal Reserve Chair Powell just dropped a hard line at Jackson Hole: inflation remains the number one enemy, and the interest rate path will no longer be pre-committed. The market immediately broke out in a cold sweat — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 57%, the 2-year US Treasury yield surged over 10 basis points in a single day, and gold prices plummeted about 3%. This wave of "hawkish signals" came too fiercely, coinciding exactly with the US stock market's most notorious "September curse."
What curse? Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 1.17% in September, making it the only month with a long-term negative return, with a roughly 56% chance of decline. The S&P just rose about 3% in August, hitting new highs repeatedly; this kind of "last gasp" performance perfectly matches the statistical conditions prone to weakening. Even more troublesome, this year is a midterm election year, and in the second year of a presidential term, the S&P has fallen 6 out of the past 10 Septembers, with an average drop of about 2%.
The risk is not recession, but being too strong. Inflation is still at 3.7%, employment and earnings are robust, and the Fed has no reason to cut rates. High valuations and full positions combined with an underpriced rate hike can trigger violent repricing in minutes.
So, defense first in September: high dividend, utilities, energy, banks, and gold are more stable; high valuation tech stocks and discretionary consumption should be pressed down. But don’t panic, historical data shows that in the 12 months after midterm elections, the S&P has risen 19 times with an average gain of 31.7%. The panic-clearing months of September and October often mark the start of the next rally. If you get through these most dangerous 30 days, it might be a field of gold again. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
Shipping in the Persian Gulf is obstructed, Brent crude oil has reached the $90 mark, and inflation concerns are resurfacing. Market price $BTC 78029.
Market consensus
Some funds worry that rising oil prices will push up inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease policies, thus suppressing risk assets; others see $BTC as an alternative safe haven amid geopolitical turmoil.
Underlying logic analysis
Geopolitical events themselves do not directly determine cryptocurrency prices. The real chain is: oil price rise → inflation expectations rebound → interest rate expectation changes → liquidity tightening or easing, which eventually affects the crypto market, likely increasing volatility.
Personal view (I personally lean towards a gradual return of the bull market, this is just my personal opinion and not investment advice)
The situation brings uncertainty, so avoid aggressive positions, manage your holdings well, and patiently observe macro changes. Liquidity Undercurrents Surge: ETF Fund Flows Reveal New Rotation Signals
The U.S. Treasury's repurchase operations are quietly repairing the microstructure of the bond market. Although not quantitative easing, this provides breathing room for risk assets to maneuver. The market has not seen a "flood of liquidity," but funds have begun to reprice.
On-chain data and capital flows form a cross-validation: spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed nearly $1.9 billion in a single week, and Ethereum investment products also netted $816 million inflows. Interestingly, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has recently strengthened, not simply due to short squeezes—on-chain activity, staking yields, and ecosystem expectations are attracting incremental capital for targeted positioning.
The price trajectory is becoming clearer: liquidity expectations improve first anchoring Bitcoin, then funds diffuse to Ethereum, and finally transmit along the risk curve to altcoin sectors. If this transmission chain continues, it means the market is shifting from "risk-averse clustering" to "tiered rotation." Going forward, close attention is needed on the persistence of ETH's relative strength and whether the inflow slope of stablecoins expands synchronously.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 On-chain data has been quite interesting these days. The whales on Hyperliquid aren't running away; instead, they're locking tokens into the staking pool.
Onchain Lens tracked a previously dormant whale transferring over 1 million $HYPE to staking, worth about 61.2 million USD at the current price. Lookonchain also pointed out a group of 19 wallets suspected to belong to the same entity, cumulatively staking about 2.93 million $HYPE, valued at approximately 172 million USD.
Staking removes coins from circulation, naturally reducing selling pressure. But on the other hand, spot ETFs have seen net outflows for about two consecutive weeks, with money withdrawing from fund products.
Two opposing forces are at play. $HYPE is currently priced around 84 USD, up about 5% in 24 hours, just hitting a new high. Some are locking tokens as long-term holders, while others are pulling out from products; the market is never unified.$KO Super strong El Niño catalyzes! Food sector triggers another surge in limit-ups, planting chain prosperity impacts Coca-Cola
The expectation of a super strong El Niño heats up, leading the food planting sector to a wave of limit-ups, with the sugar planting chain becoming the main focus of capital. Extreme weather disrupts global crop supply, and this climate narrative also transmits to downstream consumer targets like $KO Coca-Cola.
El Niño has a dual impact: high temperatures stimulate cold drink consumption, benefiting Coca-Cola's end sales; however, the main sugarcane producing areas face drought threats, with the market pricing in reduced sugarcane output, putting upward pressure on raw sugar prices and raising corporate raw material costs. Nevertheless, Coca-Cola relies on long-term locked-price procurement contracts, combined with brand premium-driven pricing power, which can hedge part of the sugar price volatility.
The market has retreated from its high point for a week, with trading volume shrinking from 17.13 million shares to 9.89 million shares, selling pressure easing, RSI falling back to the neutral zone around 50, showing signs of volume contraction and price stabilization. Q2 revenue and profit grew double digits, but the 26.8x P/E ratio is relatively high, coupled with Latin American sugar taxes, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have target price differences of $16, indicating clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Current price forms a fragile balance between $88 and $90. A volume breakout above $90 would activate sentiment and could challenge $95; a volume breakdown below the $88 20-day moving average would break the defensive structure and may test $86.
It is necessary to distinguish between thematic expectations and performance realization. The planting chain speculation is based on production cut forecasts; El Niño is a medium- to long-term catalyst and will not directly drive a one-sided rise in KO. The market must wait for volume confirmation of a breakout. The theme is for reference only and should not be used directly as a basis for opening positions; proper position management is advised. This week's data is the real judge. ADP on Wednesday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, plus JOLTS and initial jobless claims, four employment reports clustered together, directly deciding whether to raise rates in September.
Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 to 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. July's Nonfarm Payrolls were down 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations will be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Waller's hawkish stance will have data support.
Waller has made it very clear at Jackson Hole that inflation is still too high, overall financial conditions are far from restrictive, and the labor market is still in a state of full employment. If inflation cannot "clearly and quickly enough" return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." The probability of a rate hike in September has already jumped from 35% to 65%, and the two-year Treasury yield has risen by 12 basis points. The market is already pricing in a rate hike, now waiting for data to confirm.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,600, with 80,000 turning from support into resistance. Strong employment data solidifies rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to be under pressure. Weak employment data cools rate hike expectations, giving BTC a chance to retest 80,000. Don't bet on the data, wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 Wow, Injective isn't even making a statement? The chain has been down for almost 4 hours, and the official Twitter is still posting marketing content.
Here's what happened: someone exploited a long-disabled oracle vulnerability, created 299 markets pointing to that oracle, triggered the "no price refund" mechanism, got double compensation, and ran off with about 4.9 million USD, converted into 1980 ETH.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults ZORA/USDT trades at $ZORA $0.008525 (-3.80%) on OKX, attempting to consolidate after pulling back from a recent high of $ZORA $0.008912 to test support near $0.008390. The asset moves within a 24-hour range of $0.008358 to $0.012054.
Price action remains capped below key moving averages (MA5: $0.008563, MA10: $0.008579, MA20: $0.008628) despite mild positive MACD momentum. Reclaiming $0.008563 is crucial for a potential recovery,
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #OKX.ai $TRUMP Brothers, let's talk about the TRUMP coin, this coin's unlocking really never ends!
Brothers, do we retail wallets have more, or does Trump issue more coins?
😆 Haha (I can say it's the most disgusting coin in history)
Usually, there are daily small linear unlocks, continuously releasing chips, with constant selling pressure hanging overhead.
Turning point: September 18 is the pivot point, let me make it clear to everyone, this day is not an automatic pump on schedule, but a large team cliff unlock day.
At that time, 28.7 million TRUMP will be released at once, belonging to early creators and institutions, with extremely low cost.
Two scenarios lie ahead:
The first bearish scenario: after unlocking, institutions directly cash out and dump, the coin price continues to be pressured and grinds down.💹
The second is the real upward turning point, institutions choose not to sell, and the overall market rises, with enough incremental funds to absorb all this selling pressure, only then is there a chance for a rebound rally.📉
Looking at the data, TRUMP's total supply is 1 billion coins, currently 671 million unlocked, and 329 million still locked.👍
Every month on the 18th, there will be a large team unlock round, continuing until the end of 2027. Plus the daily continuous small releases, selling pressure is always present.
And now, real incoming funds are very few, many trades on the market are done by quant bots going back and forth, with low real human participation.
So don't just expect a surge on September 18, whether it rises or not depends on two core points: whether the unlocked chips will be dumped, and whether the market can bring funds to absorb the selling pressure. Missing either condition makes it hard for the market to move.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $TRUMP
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $TRUMP $ETH Just taking a quick look
$ETH This week slid from a high of 2,566 down to 2,384 then bounced back to 2,470, moving in sync with $BTC but weaker — $BTC only dropped 5.6%, $ETH fell 7%, showing much less resilience. The fee rate dropped from 0.0069% to 0.0025% then rose back to 0.0057%, indicating insufficient bullish confidence. OI shrank from 6.13 billion to 5.79 billion, with clear net outflows. For now, avoid $ETH contracts, let $BTC run first, wait until $ETH stabilizes above 2,500 before considering. $CORE
Recently, everyone has been paying attention to the increase of hundreds of millions of tokens in the core market circulation, which is the main reason why the coin price dropped from around 0.026 to around 0.020. At first, the increase in circulation was small. Few people noticed it. And the coins flowing into the market exchanges were only a part; the price did not fluctuate much, always hovering between 0.025-0.026 in a tug-of-war. As the amount of coins flowing into the market gradually increased, the market simply could not absorb so many coins, so the price once dropped to around 0.020. The project team's announcement made everyone feel chills down their spine! Tokens will be reclaimed. Will the coins that have entered personal wallets be reclaimed? Is this a thief crying "stop thief" or is there another explanation? If it is a personal wallet, how can they reclaim it? Could it be that private keys, mnemonic phrases, and passwords are ineffective or are they completely exposed to them? If it is the project team's doing, then the next outcome will be a fierce sell-off. Both scenarios have a heavy negative impact! The exchange will close deposit and withdrawal channels before September 3rd, which will inevitably cause panic and losses. Perhaps this will be its last moment of glory! Everyone, proceed with caution and cherish it!$KO KO Market Observation: It Has Been a Full Week Since the Pullback from the Stage High, Positive Narratives Face Real-World Testing
$KO Coca-Cola has pulled back from the recent stage high, and a full week has passed since. The fundamental positives such as the El Niño-driven high-temperature consumption expectations and the sugar market dynamics remain intact, but short-term market funds have already chosen to take profits.
Looking back at the contract data, the current price is 88.98, with a heavy stack of sell orders in the 89-91 range above. Long positions in contracts still account for a high 76.25%, with a long-short ratio of 3.21, indicating retail bullish sentiment remains very crowded. The past week's pullback is not a direct end to the bullish trend but more like profit-taking after a rally. Many traders entered long positions based on the narrative of El Niño boosting consumption but overlooked that the market won't keep rising solely on stories; after a rise, funds naturally take profits and exit.
This week's volatile pullback also reflects the market weighing two variables: on one hand, the potential positive of El Niño boosting cold drink consumption; on the other, the risk of extreme weather pushing up international sugar prices, increasing raw material costs for companies, compounded by global interest rate hikes suppressing consumer stock valuations. These multiple factors tug against each other, making it difficult for the market to directly resume an upward attack.
To retake the resistance level at 91, two hurdles must be overcome. First, the heavy sell orders above need to be absorbed, requiring substantial incremental buying funds to sweep through the orders; second, the currently overcrowded long positions need to be partially digested, with some floating profit longs exiting to release selling pressure. Carrying the industry???
Does the industry disappear if CZ doesn't go to jail or pay fines???
4.3 billion USD is not a small amount.
But this money goes to the US government, not as welfare for the industry.
The industry should rectify where needed, and no one who should exit the market has been spared.
How does this become "carrying the industry"?
What he can control is Binance's compliance issues, but he can't control the FTX collapse.
Tying these two things together is somewhat forced drama.
I know what he wants to express: if Binance had also collapsed at that time, the market would be worse.
But "carrying" means actively taking responsibility, while "paying the bill" means passively bearing the cost—two different things.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BNB Updated: 2026-09-01 COP (Electricity Cost): $58,837 / BTC AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $76,488 / BTC BTC Price: $78,734 (Sep 01, 11:02 VNT) Price / COP: 1.34x Price / AISC: 1.03x => Hold, observe & wait zone 200W SMA: +21.4% (vs 200W SMA) Weekly RSI: 55.5 Market Insights: Bitcoin continues to trade above its All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining. Following 10 weeks of consolidation around the 200-week SMA (from W24 through W33), BTC experienced a strong rally in W34, surging over 24% above Recently, there has been a very obvious contrast in institutional funds. In the previous full 5 trading days, $BTC spot ETF net inflows were about $1.918 billion, and ETH ETF about $693 million. In the most recent full 5 days, BTC ETF net inflows dropped to about $925 million, a decrease of about 52%; ETH ETF, on the other hand, rose to about $816 million, an increase of about 18%. In other words, BTC is still the largest institutional asset in Crypto, but the marginal change in new funds recently has started to tilt towards ETH. 1. This is not just a change in ETF numbers; ETH/BTC is also strengthening simultaneously. In mid-August, ETH/BTC was around 0.0296, and now it has returned to about 0.0315. This indicates that ETH has indeed strengthened relative to BTC recently. So what we are seeing now is not "ETH ETF suddenly having a large inflow one day," but two signals appearing simultaneously: ETH ETF strengthening relative to BTC; ETH/BTC is also moving upward. However, the trend cannot yet be said to be fully confirmed because ETH/BTC still has not truly broken through the key area around 0.032–0.0325. 2. Institutions may be starting to give $ETH a higher allocation weight. One reason is that BTC has already undergone a rapid revaluation. After new funds enter Crypto, they may not all concentrate on BTC; ETH, as the second largest high-liquidity asset, naturally becomes the next target.🇯🇵 THE "BOMB" JAPANESE YEN IS CHARGING UP: BOJ MAY RAISE INTEREST RATES, AND $BTC FACES A FORGOTTEN LIQUIDITY SHOCK While the market focuses on the Fed, oil, and Iran, another variable is becoming more dangerous: Japan. The 2-year Japanese government bond yield just hit 1.746% — the highest in over 31 years. The 10-year JGB yield is also approaching 2.95%, the highest level since 1996. The yen remains around ¥160/USD, while the market is pricing in about a 73% chance that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates Stopped buying for 10 weeks, Strategy suddenly made a move again.
Strategy's latest disclosure: From August 24 to 30, it bought 4,603 $BTC in one go, spending about $369.7 million, with an average cost of $80,318. This is the first re-accumulation after a pause of about 10 weeks.
The result is interesting — right after the purchase, BTC dropped below the cost line.
Currently, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC, with a total investment of about $63.73 billion and an overall average holding price of $75,412.
What’s even more noteworthy is where the money came from.
This week, Strategy sold about 4.53 million shares of $MSTR, net raising $602.8 million, of which $369.7 million was used to buy BTC, $151.8 million to repurchase $STRC, and about $30 million to continue replenishing the cash account.
So what really deserves attention this time is not the short-term buying position of Strategy, but that it chose to increase its BTC holdings again after a 10-week pause.
When the market falls, it actually starts using financing funds to buy coins again.
If even Strategy presses the “buy” button again, then every deep BTC pullback going forward will become a key window for market observers to gauge institutional buying strength.
Short-term fluctuations are not surprising, but the direction of big money is often more worth watching than daily ups and downs. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 The crypto ETF picture is becoming increasingly fragmented. Capital is still flowing into U.S. spot crypto ETFs, but the behavior around $BTC and $ETH is clearly diverging. 🟢 $ETH ETF: Ethereum funds have shown more consistent accumulation, with institutional demand appearing less reactive to short-term price swings. Some investors seem to be positioning around Ethereum’s evolving staking and yield narrative, treating pullbacks as opportunities to build exposure. 🟠 $BTC ETF: Bitcoin flows lookFirst, a question: Over the past two years, $BTC rose from 40,000 to 126,000. During this period, do you think there were more active buyers or more active sellers on the spot market? The answer is more sellers, and overwhelmingly so.
Look at this chart: red represents active selling exceeding active buying, green is the opposite. From 2024 to this year, the chart is almost entirely red, with the few green bars in the middle completely drowned out by red.
This is interesting: the price tripled, yet active buying was a net outflow. So where did the money come from? The answer is, the money never actually went through the order book.
CVD only counts one thing: who is actively taking orders. If you place a limit order and wait, it doesn't count. Only when you sweep the market with a market order does it count. The main buyers this round are ETFs, which build positions by having authorized participants source coins OTC or slowly absorb them with limit orders—they don’t rush to Binance to grab coins at market price.
So, the chart being so red these past two years doesn’t mean no one is buying; it means buyers don’t need to rush.
Conversely, who is constantly hitting market sell orders on the order book? It’s the impatient group: miners and retail investors eager to cash out.
Understanding this changes how you use this indicator. It doesn’t measure demand; it measures patience.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 On the first day of September, I first wish all friends great wealth. Let's focus on the three most important variables today: the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to a 20-month high of 4.78%, once again becoming the ceiling for all risk assets; Brent crude oil has climbed back above $91; and the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September has reached about 65%. Putting these three numbers together, it seems the market environment in September might be quite different from what we imagined in previous months.
Some friends analyzing Crypto tend to fall into a very simple model: Fed rate cuts → increased USD liquidity → BTC rises. This model isn't wrong, but it's no longer sufficient. The real trouble now is that the Fed may not have started raising rates yet, but long-term interest rates have already moved up first, so risk assets must offer higher potential returns to attract capital.
This is why I increasingly like to watch one indicator: Risk Premium. Simply put, when US Treasuries can give you an increasingly higher yield, why would you take the risk to buy highly volatile assets? The answer is cheaper and higher potential returns, which is the simplest source of valuation compression.
So the core question in September is probably not whether $BTC can still rise. I will focus on four aspects:
Can the 10-year US Treasury yield fall back below 4.5%?
Can oil prices drop from above $90?
Can the Fed's rate hike expectations cool down again?
Will employment data significantly deteriorate?
If two of these four variables start moving in a direction favorable to risk assets, I will raise my risk appetite again; if all four move in the opposite direction, I will significantly reduce my aggressiveness.
This is not a prediction, just a way to manage my own expectations. DYOR$ARB Why are you pumping the price? This pump really made me laugh. In 24 hours, it rose from 0.0842 to a high of 0.119, a 40% increase. A project that fell from a historical high of 0.5475 to a historical low of 0.0727, dropping 79%, suddenly comes back to life? OpenSea resumed support for Solana NFT trading after four years, and ARB, as one of the EVM-compatible chains supported by OpenSea, was casually mentioned. Just that one sentence, and ARB got all hyped up. But what about the real data? Trader "CBB" constructs a spot-futures hedge with $10.5 million HYPE spot and an equal amount short
On-chain data shows that trader "CBB"'s associated sub-account bought approximately $10.55 million HYPE spot, while simultaneously shorting an equal amount of HYPE perpetual contracts with 10x leverage, forming an almost 1:1 spot-futures hedge, and enhancing capital efficiency through portfolio margin and USDC borrowing.
Starting early September 1, on-chain monitoring detected large position openings by trader "CBB"'s associated sub-account. The account cumulatively purchased 125,492.4 HYPE spot tokens, with a transaction amount of about $10.5506 million and a weighted average price of $84.073. Almost simultaneously, the account added a 10x cross-margin short position of 125,458.02 HYPE perpetual contracts, with a position size of approximately $10.5524 million and an opening price of $84.111. The quantities and amounts of both legs correspond almost exactly, constituting a near 1:1 spot-futures hedge.
Currently, the HYPE funding rate remains positive, meaning longs pay funding fees to shorts. This account has already received about $1,818.6 in funding fees today from the perpetual short position. Meanwhile, this strategy also uses a portfolio margin mechanism: the account holds about 190,500 HYPE as assets, while borrowing approximately 7.56 million USDC, with a USDC balance of about -$5.96 million. The main account net transferred about $10 million this round, with the remaining spot exposure mainly financed through USDC borrowing.
This operation essentially constitutes spot-futures arbitrage: buying spot,#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
As of September 1st, London spot gold is around $4436, and Bitcoin is fluctuating near $80,000.
Their historical peaks are $5596 for gold
and $126,000 for Bitcoin.
The core logic behind this round of rise is the renewed heat in dollar depreciation trading. The U.S. Treasury announced long-term bond repurchases, raising market concerns about fiscal risks. Funds have simultaneously flowed into gold and Bitcoin ETFs, totaling about $7 billion over the past 5 trading days, setting a record.Still waters run deep; the bottom structure of the crypto market is undergoing reshaping. This is by no means a simple short-term pulse but an inevitable reflection of the overall improvement in macro liquidity operations.
The tightening liquidity situation in the bond market is being effectively alleviated by the Treasury's repurchase operations, thereby creating a looser liquidity environment overall.
From the perspective of capital flows, funds are continuously pouring in. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion in a single week, while Ethereum investment products also recorded net subscriptions of about $816 million.
In terms of market performance, BTC has shown a solid stabilization around the $78,000 level, while ETH has demonstrated stronger buying resilience, with its relative demand significantly outperforming the broader market.
As macro liquidity levels rise and institutional funds resonate, the narrative logic of the crypto market has quietly shifted. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation
$BTC $ETH $ZORA It was mentioned at dawn that shorting could continue at high levels, with 791 as the short entry point. The morning live broadcast also mentioned shorting directly around 790, first looking at the hourly Bollinger Bands parallel point 78130 as support, which is also the four-hour Bollinger Bands middle band support, but leaving some room for shorting, with a position at 782. The morning's weak low was just right; the dawn short cut 880 points, and the short stop was 560 points. In the new month, first close ② short, currently 24 consecutive wins. So, the segmented arrangement just needs to focus on pressure and support. Comparing the trend now with what was said in the live broadcast is consistent, right? Not difficult, right? $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 When reviewing $UNI in April, I bought hype at that time, then thought the price was too high and sold it, but it ended up rising more than double. Currently, uni's burn rate is 20% to 30% of hype's. Assuming the future market cap is 20% to 30% of hype's, this means uni's market cap would be between 13 billion and 22 billion. Potential implication: uni's price will be between 15 and 30 USD. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 First, high temperatures bring incremental demand for beverages, which can offset raw material cost pressures. Rising temperatures stimulate soda consumption, boosting end sales, and economies of scale can dilute unit production costs. The market will price in the expectation of a summer consumption surge in advance, driving capital to be optimistic about corporate revenue prospects.
Second, Coca-Cola has a long-term locked procurement mechanism, which secures most of its sugarcane supply in advance, allowing it to isolate short-term sugar price spikes. At the same time, its strong brand moat gives it the ability to pass on price increases downstream, adjusting retail prices slightly when necessary to transfer the increased raw material costs to consumers—an advantage that small and medium beverage manufacturers find hard to achieve.
However, the benefits have clear limits. If El Niño becomes too extreme and sugar prices experience sustained surges, cost pressures will still emerge once locked-price contracts expire. Looking at KO perpetual contracts, the climate narrative is a positive expectation factor, not an explosive catalyst. Currently, there is heavy selling pressure around the 89-91 range, and contract long sentiment is crowded. Relying solely on the El Niño story makes it difficult for prices to firmly hold above 91; incremental capital inflows and subsequent consumption data fulfillment are necessary for the positive outlook to translate into market movement.
Transferring this trading logic, narrative does not equal market movement. Just like various hot stories in the crypto market about BTC and ETH, sentiment can temporarily drive the market, but ultimately it depends on capital and real data. When considering this logic, one should not only see the high-temperature benefits to consumption nor only magnify the risks of rising sugar prices; a comprehensive evaluation of both sides is needed. Leveraged trading must strictly control position sizes and cannot rely on a single narrative. If you want to short Nvidia $NVDA, you should pay attention to these points
Shorting Nvidia is not really about betting on "overvaluation," but rather a more fundamental question:
How long can AI capital expenditure continue? Will these massive investments ultimately translate into sufficiently high commercial returns?
Nvidia's fundamentals remain very strong: the latest quarter revenue was about $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, with gross margin still around 75%. Therefore, simply shorting based on "high valuation" is not a fully sufficient logic.
The real variables to watch are:
① Has AI CapEx peaked?
② Is AI ROI declining?
③ Will ASICs replace GPUs?
④ Is the CUDA moat weakening?
⑤ Gross margin and data center growth rate
⑥ US-China tech war and export controls
⑦ Macro liquidity
The Fed turning hawkish again and rising long-term US Treasury yields will directly compress valuations of high-growth tech stocks.
The true bearish signals are:
AI CapEx decline + AI ROI decline + Data center growth slowdown + Gross margin falling below 70% + Stock price breaking key support
This would mean:
The AI supercycle may be shifting from "insufficient demand" to "declining capital returns."
So, the four key numbers to watch when shorting NVDA are:
AI CapEx → Data Center revenue → Gross margin → AI ROI $KO El Niño Effect's Potential Benefits for Coca-Cola
The El Niño phenomenon often brings widespread global temperature anomalies with higher-than-normal temperatures, which is an important seasonal positive catalyst for beverage leader $KO Coca-Cola.
Rising temperatures directly drive demand for cold drinks and carbonated beverages. When high temperatures persist through summer and early autumn, the purchase volume of cola, soda, and bottled drinks in end markets significantly increases, boosting the company's sales and revenue expectations. In the capital markets, funds price in the consumption growth brought by the climate in advance, raising the market's profit expectations for Coca-Cola.
Besides directly stimulating beverage consumption, El Niño also disrupts global commodities. High temperatures can affect the harvests in sugarcane and sugar-producing regions, potentially pushing sugar prices upward. However, Coca-Cola has a large locked-price procurement system that can hedge part of the raw material fluctuations; its strong brand premium allows it to pass costs downstream if necessary, giving it a significant advantage over small and medium beverage companies in resisting shocks.
Looking at the KOUSDT perpetual contract market, El Niño is a medium- to long-term fundamental positive factor rather than an immediate strong trigger for the market. Currently, there is heavy sell pressure stacked in the 89-91 range above the contract, while retail long positions account for as much as 76.25%, indicating crowded bullish sentiment. Even with the El Niño narrative support, for the price to return to the 91 level, incremental funds are still needed to absorb the selling pressure above; relying solely on the climate story makes it difficult to drive a rapid breakout. After NVIDIA told the big story, the market handed the magnifying glass to Dell and Broadcom.
One sells server cabinets and private deployment, the other sells custom chips and networking. These two take over the baton, testing not the hype but whether A-shares' returns can continue along the same chain.
Dell's position is "dirtier" and more delivery-dependent. Q1 already fed the optimists with 43.8 billion in revenue, 16.1 billion in AI servers, and 51.3 billion in backlog.
The current question is: Is the 60 billion annual guidance a trend or a peak? There is a lag from "order placement" to "shelving" on the enterprise AI side, and gross margins can be skewed by high-value, low-multiplier AI servers. If this quarter just crosses the line flatly, the stock price can hold steady, and supply chain elasticity will first contract.
Broadcom is on a different slope. Custom ASICs plus switching chips make it neither a pure cyclical stock nor a pure platform stock. Last quarter, AI semiconductors grew 143% year-over-year, and this quarter aims to hit 16 billion.
The high valuation is buying customer expansion and share lock-in. Once there is "revenue but poor quality" or "overconcentration of major customer contributions," pricing will be more sensitive than Dell's.
Therefore, A-shares should no longer mix "computing power" speculation. Dell's chain looks at shipments and capacity fulfillment, Broadcom's chain looks at packaging, substrates, and optical interconnect certification positioning. The same wave of earnings reports, two types of companies, two kinds of odds.
The baton handoff is complete, the return test begins: who is selling dreams, who is delivering. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC and $ETH: A pair of market anchors that are both bound and pulling at each other. Many traders simply think of Bitcoin and Ethereum as two mainstream coins—one large and one small—BTC rising, ETH following suit; BTC falling, ETH pulling back. But after institutions entered deeply, the two are no longer just large and small caps following each other. They each carry two completely different value logics, attracting two completely different capital groups and creating market divergences that many people can't understand. The old bull market script was clear: Bitcoin surged first, the market's profit-making effect kicked in, funds flowed out, ETH surged in succession, and then spread to altcoin sectors. But now, this rotation scenario often fails. We often see BTC repeatedly hitting stage highs while ETH performs weakly; BTC can also move sideways and rebound independently due to ecosystem narratives. Many people are puzzled: both are top assets in the crypto market, so why do they often see strong and weak gaps? Bitcoin's core positioning now leans more toward the crypto world's "digital gold." Institutional funds, family offices, and large asset managers treat it as an alternative asset allocation tool. People buy BTC for scarcity, inflation resistance, and macro hedging. It doesn't rely much on on-chain ecosystem activity, doesn't need DApp explosions, and doesn't need new narratives. As long as the macro environment is relaxed and compliant channels open, funds will keep flowing in. A large portion of its pricing power has already been handed over to traditional financial capital, with price movements tied more to US and US dollar liquidity, ETF fund inflows and outflowsThe US stock earnings season is coming to an end, with the baton passed to Dell and Broadcom.
The former will report FY27 Q2 after the market closes tonight, and the latter will reveal FY26 Q3 in the early hours tomorrow. Neither are ordinary hardware vendors; one focuses on AI server systems and enterprise private deployments, the other on custom ASICs and high-speed networking. Once they report, the "realization narrative" for the A-share computing power chain will face another test.
Dell stunned the market last quarter: revenue of $43.8 billion, up 88% year-over-year; AI servers brought in $16.1 billion, up 757% year-over-year; backlog surged to $51.3 billion; and the full-year AI server guidance was raised to about $60 billion. This quarter, consensus expects revenue around $44.5 billion and EPS about $4.9.
The real focus is not just another increase, but whether new orders can continue to outpace shipments, whether traditional servers and storage are still losing market share, and whether gross margins will continue to be pressured by AI mixed configurations. If delivery pace fails to keep up with backlog, the flexible growth story will be discounted.
Broadcom is more like the "second main line." Last quarter revenue was $22.2 billion, up 48% year-over-year; AI semiconductors reached $10.8 billion, up 143% year-over-year; and guidance for this quarter is revenue of $29.4 billion and AI semiconductors at $16 billion.
The market is no longer focused on "whether there is AI," but on whether customers will continue to expand, whether ASIC market share will be taken by MediaTek/AMD, and whether software business can support profit margins. Valuations are not low; any slight softness in guidance will amplify volatility.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Japan's 10-year government bond yield breaks 3% for the first time in 30 years
On September 1, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3% for the first time since September 1996, reflecting heightened market expectations for the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
The 10-year government bond yield in Japan surpassed 3% on September 1, 2026, marking the first time in 30 years. This milestone signifies a further end to Japan's long era of low interest rates and suggests that the global interest rate environment may face new adjustment pressures. Previously, Japan maintained an ultra-low interest rate policy for a long time, and its government bond yields served as a key anchor for global capital pricing. The rise to 3% may be driven by strengthened market expectations of continued rate hikes or bond purchase reductions by the Bank of Japan, as well as an overall upward shift in the interest rate baseline amid persistent global inflation. This event could impact yen carry trades: investors previously borrowed low-cost yen to invest in high-yield assets, and rising yields will increase carry costs, prompting capital to flow back and positions to be closed, thereby disturbing global risk asset liquidity. For the crypto market, this macro signal may trigger expectations of tightening liquidity and suppress risk appetite, though the specific transmission path remains unclear.
This event represents an important macro liquidity signal, but its impact direction is indirect and uncertain. It does not currently constitute a direct mapping to BTC, ETH, or traditional financial assets, and further observation of subsequent Bank of Japan policies and global capital flow changes is needed.$TRUMP
Brothers, take a clear look at the TRUMP coin liquidation scene! — Have you been harvested?
Long positions below are concentrated at 2.26, with a total long liquidation intensity of 14,183,500; short position resistance above is at 2.59, with a total short liquidation intensity of 10,274,500.🤢
Right now, this coin is clearly a bit cold, the real buy and sell order volume is basically abandoned, and there is little incremental capital entering the market. Many of the declines on the board look like data, mostly quantitative bots brushing back and forth, with very little real participant capital.
Whether there can be another wave of rally later and whether those trapped can get out largely depends on the September 4th non-farm payroll data. Non-farm payrolls will drive the overall market and all asset trends. Here are three scenarios for everyone.💹
Scenario 1: Non-farm data is favorable, employment weakens.
Market expectations for rate cuts are ignited, various assets collectively take off, and TRUMP has a chance to break through the 2.59 short position resistance and enter a rebound trend.
Scenario 2: Non-farm data meets market expectations.
No big rise or fall, the overall market falls into back-and-forth oscillation, and TRUMP will also grind repeatedly within the range, making it difficult to have a one-sided big trend. September will most likely maintain the current interest rate, neither raising nor cutting.
Scenario 3: Non-farm data exceeds expectations, employment is hot.
This will trigger market panic selling, compounded by Walsh's hawkish remarks suppressing the market, the hope for a rate cut in September will be dashed, and the possibility of a rate hike may re-emerge, putting downward pressure on the market.
Personal view:
The non-farm results directly determine the subsequent direction. If the data is poor, there is room to imagine rate cuts; once employment data is strong and hawkish attitudes prevail, the market will be hard to be optimistic. TRUMP itself currently lacks real capital, so even if the overall market rallies, its rebound strength is questionable. Do not blindly go heavy betting on getting out of the trap.
Hope for good expectations and to get out of the trap, but this thing is unplayable, you basically can't get a bite... No matter how you buy, it's the rhythm of being trapped... #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $TRUMP Major breakthrough! Saylor officially announces his return, adding 80,000 at a high price to BTC against the trend, this time the pattern is completely different. Yesterday, the phrase "We’re Back" went viral across the entire network, and today it has fully materialized. The market was originally guessing: Is Saylor just talk for hype, or has he really ended a two-month silence and restarted accumulating coins? The answer is here: Strategy officially restarts the $BTC dollar-cost averaging mode, making a high-profile return to the market. Latest on-chain disclosure: From August 24 to August 30, in a single week, Strategy made a large-scale purchase of 4,603 BTC with a total cost of $369.7 million, average entry price: $80,318. This is the first active accumulation since stopping at the end of June, a full two months later. The significance is far beyond a simple "institutional buy"; it is a solid signal of a strategic shift in the largest Bitcoin corporate treasury in the US stock market. Many only see "buying," but the real top-level trading logic lies in the source of funds. All the funds for this purchase came entirely from MSTR stock issuance cash-out: Sold over 4.53 million common shares in a single week, raising a total of $602.8 million. Here's the key point! This time, the fund allocation completely abandons the past reckless all-in approach: ✅ $369.7 million → directly bought BTC as the main position ✅ $151.8 million → repurchased STRC preferred stock to optimize capital structure ✅ $50.7 million → paid shareholder dividends ✅ $30 million → supplemented company cash flow Previously, Stra Funds are still flowing in, but no longer just buying the big coins — capital has become more selective.
Last week, total inflows into crypto spot ETFs exceeded $2 billion, with $BTC ETF net inflows of $924 million, $ETH $824 million, $SOL $153 million, and $XRP $110 million.
However, on August 28, after nine consecutive days of inflows, the BTC ETF saw its first outflow of $202 million, while $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $oKB, and $ZEC continued to attract capital.
This is not capital exiting crypto, but rather a reallocation within sectors — shifting from "only buying the big coins" to "selective allocation." Institutions are voting with real money: $ETH's staking yields, $SOL's ecosystem momentum, and $XRP's cross-border payment narrative have all become reasons for diversion.
Key question: Where will the next wave flow? If $ETH ETF inflows continue to outperform $BTC, altcoin leaders will benefit first. Capital has become selective; follow the smart money, not the herd.This non-farm payroll report is extremely critical. Before Friday's data release, the market will most likely continue to trade sideways.
The reason non-farm payroll data can stir global markets lies in a clear transmission chain: employment data → Federal Reserve policy expectations → US dollar liquidity → risk asset prices. Simply put, it directly determines whether the Fed will "hit the brakes" or "step on the gas."
📈 Why is this time especially critical?
After Fed Chair Walsh took a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium, the market's bet on a September rate hike has surged from about 35% to nearly 60%. So this non-farm payroll report basically decides whether there will be a hike in September or not.
📊 Data expectations vs. reality
The market currently expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. July's data showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs, and May and June data were revised downward by a total of 103,000 jobs.
🔮 Three possible scenarios
· Strong data (well above 60,000): A September rate hike is basically set in stone. The US dollar strengthens, bond yields rise, and risk assets like BTC come under pressure.
· Weak data (close to zero or negative): Rate hike expectations cool significantly. The US dollar weakens, and BTC may see a rebound.
· Data meets expectations (50,000–60,000): The market remains conflicted, shifting focus to next week's CPI.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Oil Price Rise + US Treasury Yield Increase Background: On-Chain Data and Impact Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Date: September 1, 2026
1. Latest Macroeconomic Variables
Logic chain: Oil price rise → Inflation expectations rebound → US Treasury yields rise → Financial conditions tighten → Risk assets (including crypto) under pressure. This resonates with the hawkish stance from Warsh.
2. Overview of Recent On-Chain Data for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Based on public on-chain and capital flow data (aggregated from Glassnode, CryptoQuant, and other sources):
Bitcoin key signals:
• Exchange net flow: During the strong rise in mid to late August, there was an overall net outflow (chips moving from exchanges to cold wallets/institutional custody), indicating accumulation tendency. After a recent pullback, some periods saw increased net inflow, but not to panic selling levels.
• Whale activity: Large holders (1k–10k BTC and above) showed clear absorption at low levels, with some chips shifting from mid-sized holders to institutional/custodial side. Whale trading activity declined during the pullback.
• ETF and institutional flows: Strong net inflows appeared in mid to late August, supporting the breakout; after Jackson Hole, it turned into phase-wise outflow pressure.
• Long-term holders: Most wallet size cohorts show accumulation trends; short-term holders’ cost basis is being retested.
Ethereum key signals:
• Exchange net flow: Overall more towards net outflow or neutral; staking and DeFi locked supply still provide some supply contraction.
• Whales and institutions: More volatile than Bitcoin, but large addresses did not show large-scale concentrated selling during the pullback.
• ETF flows: Spot Ethereum ETFs still had net inflows in some periods, showing relatively better resilience than Bitcoin.
Overall characteristics: No "full-scale panic selling" on-chain. More so price pullback triggered leverage clearing + some profit-taking, with long-term holders and institutions still accumulating. This differs from a purely speculative-driven crash structure.
3. How Oil Price Rise + US Treasury Yield Increase Affect Crypto
Direct transmission path:
1. Inflation and interest rate expectations
Oil price rise pushes up energy costs, reinforcing the "inflation stickiness" narrative. US Treasury yields thus remain high or rise further, increasing funding costs and suppressing high-valuation/high-volatility assets (crypto is a typical example).
2. Risk appetite decline
US dollar strength + rising yields usually correspond to pressure on global risk assets. Gold and Bitcoin recently pulled back simultaneously, reflecting partial disruption of the "devaluation trade" logic.
3. Funding and leverage
In a macro tightening environment, leveraged longs are more easily liquidated. Significant net inflows on exchanges often correspond to amplified selling pressure; conversely, net outflows provide support.
4. Relative impact differences
• Bitcoin: More directly affected by macro liquidity and ETF funds, with higher sensitivity to yields.
• Ethereum: Besides macro factors, also influenced by staking yields, DeFi activity, and relative ETF performance; short-term volatility may be greater, but mid-term fundamentals provide relatively stronger support.
Current comprehensive impact:
Oil price rise + US Treasury yield increase constitute short-term bearish factors, reinforcing pullback pressure after Jackson Hole. But on-chain data shows selling is not out of control, more leverage clearing and profit-taking at highs. If subsequent oil price rise slows or inflation data does not worsen further, on-chain accumulation signals may translate into price stabilization support.
4. Key Observations and Scenario Tips
• If oil price continues to rise sharply + yields rise again: BTC may test $76,000–77,000, ETH test below $2,400; watch for significant expansion in exchange net inflows.
• If oil price falls back + yields peak: On-chain accumulation + ETF reinflows favor rebound recovery.
• Key monitoring indicators: Exchange net flow, daily ETF flows, large whale transfers, long-term holder supply changes.
Summary: Oil price rise and US Treasury yield increase exert short-term pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum through the "inflation → interest rate → risk appetite" chain. On-chain currently shows no full-scale crash selling, more healthy leverage and profit adjustments. Future direction depends on whether macro variables ease and whether on-chain accumulation continues to convert into buying.
The hawkish tone at Jackson Hole interrupted the strong rebound in August driven by liquidity expectations and ETF funds. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a pullback and re-pricing phase after macro shocks. The global market (rising yields, stronger dollar, risk asset pressure) forms short-term pressure on crypto.
Short-term is more likely to continue oscillating or slightly dipping to digest overbought conditions and leverage. Mid-term structure is not fully broken (previous key moving average breakouts and institutional allocation logic remain). If pullback reaches key support and stabilizes, there is still opportunity to rise again. But short-term expectations for chasing highs should be lowered, prioritizing observation of support effectiveness and capital flows. $BTC The real decisive factor for BTC bulls and bears now: ETFs!
Recently, BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly around 77,000–80,000 USD, and many people are guessing whether the next move will be a breakout or a continued drop.
But I think what’s really worth watching now isn’t the candlestick chart, but ETF capital.
Previously, BTC ETFs attracted funds for 9 consecutive trading days, and the market was very strong at one point, but the latest data suddenly shows a net outflow of about 200 million USD.
What does this mean?
Institutions are starting to hesitate, but haven’t truly withdrawn yet.
Moreover, last week BTC ETFs still had a net inflow of about 924 million USD overall, so currently it looks more like high-level funds are starting to diverge rather than bull market funds fully exiting.
I actually think an interesting situation will emerge next:
If ETFs resume continuous inflows and BTC climbs back above 80,000 USD, this wave is very likely to break upward again.
But if ETFs see continuous large outflows and BTC falls below 77,000 USD, then be cautious that the market might shift from a "consolidation" to a real trend adjustment.
So from now on, I’m only watching two things:
Whether ETFs have money coming in, and whether BTC can hold above 80,000.
If both strengthen simultaneously, I remain bullish.
If both weaken simultaneously, I will start to defend.
For BTC now, the real direction might no longer be decided by retail investors, but by whether Wall Street money is still willing to keep buying.