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Dr. Signal(互动)
Dr. Signal(互动)
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先问个问题, 过去两年$BTC 从 4 万涨到 12.6 万,你猜这段时间现货盘口上,主动买的多还是主动卖的多?答案是卖的多,而且是压倒性地多 看这张图,红色代表主动砸盘大于主动扫货,绿色反过来。2024 年到今年,整张图几乎红成一片,中间那几根绿柱全被红色淹没 这就有意思了,价格翻了三倍,主动买盘却是净流出,那钱是从哪来的? 答案是,钱根本就没走盘口 CVD 只统计一件事,谁在主动吃单。你挂个限价单在那等,不算。你市价扫上去,才算。而这轮的主力买家是 ETF,ETF 建仓靠授权参与商去 OTC 找货,或者慢慢挂限价单往里吸,压根不会跑到币安上按市价抢 所以这两年图红成这样,不是没人买,是买的人根本不用抢 反过来说,天天在盘口砸市价单的又是谁,是等不及的那批,是矿工,是急着变现的散户 想明白这层,这个指标的用法就变了。它测的不是需求,是耐心 #就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴尔接棒,AI回报再受检验
Dr. Signal(互动)
Dr. Signal(互动)
No matter which indicator you look at, they all show that 80,000 to 85,000 is the real watershed for this round. First, look at this Investor Tool. The red line is called the Investor Bottom, which is essentially the two-year moving average. Historically, when the price falls below this line, it enters a deep value zone. The major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022 were all below this line. Right now, this line is just above 80,000, while the price is still slightly below it. In other words, according to this indicator, we haven't truly exited the accumulation zone yet. Now overlay other lines: 365DMA, 80,000 to 82,000. 50-week moving average, 81,000 to 82,000. The rebound in May this year was exactly pushed back at 82,400. The average cost of the ETF group is 84,700. Four lines with completely different logics are all squeezed into the same range. This is definitely not a coincidence. Currently, BTC is at 78,800, and in the past few days, it has been pushed back several times above 80,000, with a high touching 81,300. So what to do? 1. Break above and hold steady; 84,000 to 86,000 is just ahead, and the bull market will be officially confirmed. 2. Fail to break above, then it remains a box range between 70,000 and 80,000. The 200WMA takeover plan I mentioned in my previous article remains valid

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