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$SKHYNIX Brothers, what’s the outlook for the US stock storage sector tonight?
Recently, the storage market has probably left many dizzy from several waves of V-shaped reversals, with a clear effect of losing money—truly unbearable.
The US stock market is about to open tonight, so I’ll first share my own views.
First, let’s talk about why the Korean stock market suddenly plunged before the open this morning. There are two main reasons:
① The new policy on Korean leveraged products continues to take effect: Starting July 31, South Korea significantly raised the minimum margin for single-stock leveraged/inverse products from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW. After the new policy was implemented, daily trading volume directly dropped from 11.679 trillion KRW to 958 billion KRW (a shrinkage of over 90%), forcing leveraged funds to exit, creating continuous selling pressure that directly dragged down storage giants like Samsung and Hynix.
② Dual macro-level pressures: On August 18, US Treasury yields surged, raising discount rates and directly compressing tech stock valuations; coupled with Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns, funds have continuously withdrawn from high-risk assets, with the storage sector hit first.
My personal view is clear: in the short term, the storage sector is mainly for high-level short selling, and any rebounds are opportunities to open short positions.
When the US market opens tonight, I will guide fans to enter the market at the right time. 👇👇Good afternoon, had a meal. BTC is still around 78,500, similar to yesterday. The intraday low was 77,462, the high was 79,256, fluctuating nearly 2,000 dollars up and down, but ended up back near the starting point. This kind of market is really wearing.
On the daily chart, MA5 is at 78,421, MA10 at 78,616, and the price is just stuck between the two moving averages, unable to go up or down. The August monthly candle closed with a nice bullish bar, rising from around 63,000 to a high of 81,500, an increase of over 23%. But in the last week, it fell back from 81,500 to 78,000, indicating that selling pressure above is indeed heavy.
The screenshot also shows news that the Japanese listed company eole increased its holdings of HYPE. Although this has little impact on BTC itself, it at least indicates that institutional-level funds are still entering the market.
Today is the first day of September, and the start of a new month often brings some portfolio adjustments. The real highlight is Friday's non-farm payroll data. Before the data is released, it is expected to fluctuate between 77,500 and 79,500.
Key levels: Resistance above is 79,000-79,500; only if it holds above this can it retest 80,000. Support below is 77,800-78,000; if broken, it may retest 77,000 or even 76,500.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Hyperliquid$HYPE and Lighter$LIT, if you simply compare trading volume, open interest contracts, etc., Hyperliquid's scale is still much larger than Lighter's.
But if we carefully calculate the buyback situation:
Hyperliquid has bought back HYPE worth 366 million USD
while Lighter has only bought back 26.5 million USD
The key point is, the magnitude of the numbers is not the focus; you need to compare the values against the "circulating supply"
Lighter's buyback value accounts for 4.87% of the circulating supply
while Hyperliquid's buyback value only accounts for 2.71% of the circulating supply
Relative to the current circulating shares, Lighter's buyback scale is almost twice that of HYPE
However, some also point out that the Lighter team’s sell-off during unlocks is much greater than that of the Hype team SanDisk returned to 1540, halving the floating loss, that last-minute spike was no accident
Yesterday it was still gasping at 1462, today it bounced back to 1540, floating loss shrank from 333 to 168, the account feels much better. The rebound came quite timely, but looking closely, it’s not simply a case of "too much drop then rise."
Yesterday at the close, SanDisk jumped directly from 1460 to 1566, a 5.5% increase in 45 minutes. Later I checked, it was due to the MSCI quarterly rebalancing taking effect, SanDisk was officially included in the global index, and passive funds were concentratedly buying before the close. This kind of last-minute surge is clearly the style of index funds.
Also, Nvidia’s earnings report came out, revenue was 96.2 billion, with data center accounting for 89 billion, Vera Rubin fully launched, HBM shortage spilling over to NAND, institutions say enterprise SSD price hike expectations remain. The entire storage sector was strong that day, with Micron and SK Hynix both rising.
But the MSCI event is more of a one-off, it may not continue today. It rose 5.5% yesterday, and opened with a slight 1.6% increase today, indicating funds are still digesting. My grid strategy keeps running, orders are still executing normally, averaging over 1500 trades daily, no rush.
Waiting for the price to stabilize above 1550, then see if I can add some positions to lower the average cost.
$SNDK $SNDK Institutions grabbed 5 points at the close, the $93.9 billion order is still there, what are you afraid of?
SNDK｜The $93.9 billion guaranteed order is still in place, the volume surge at the close is not just a false breakout
Many people trading contracts only look at the candlesticks, not what the company has actually signed. Sandisk is not a vaporware: fiscal year revenue $20.25 billion, year-over-year +175%, Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, year-over-year +372%, gross margin 84.6%. The numbers revealed on Investor Day are even more solid—the new business model long-term contract, guaranteed contract value floor $93.9 billion, data center business has more than quadrupled in one year
Along with Kioxia's plan to invest over $31 billion in Japan by 2032, this is a plan and still depends on Japanese government support, not production capacity already ramped up; the buyback quota was increased by another $14 billion. In the NAND price upcycle, orders lock in shipment prices, the stock has no floor, but short-term supply remains tight.
On August 31, the stock closed at 1566.7, up 5.5% in one day, with volume clearly above average, the last few minutes pulled the price back, the market is guessing a month-end rebalancing and buyback.
In the Asian morning session, the perpetual futures touched around 1580 then fell back to around 1540, the previous high of 1585 was not surpassed. The long-term contract and financial report are intact, the spike and pullback is for position adjustment, not a reversal of logic. Don't chase this morning's spike, wait for the US market open to realign perpetual futures and the stock price again The European route futures for container shipping have plunged sharply, signaling global trade demand.
The European route futures index for container shipping's continuous main contracts fell 6% intraday, currently at 1781.50 points. Short-term funds are rapidly fleeing, and the risk premium brought by previous geopolitical tensions is quickly being unwound.
There are two practical reasons behind this sharp decline. On one hand, the market has priced in that Europe's peak season restocking has peaked and is entering the summer off-season, with marginal weakening in overseas end-consumer demand and foreign trade shipments falling short of earlier optimistic expectations. On the other hand, tensions in the Middle Eastern shipping routes have eased, and the previously overlaid risk premium on freight rates has been quickly squeezed out. Shipping companies have lowered their quotes, further spreading pessimism in the market.
The European route for container shipping can be considered a mirror of global trade. The rise and fall of freight rates reflect the health of the overseas real economy. When shipping futures experience a sharp sell-off, it means the market is repricing overseas demand and also sounds a warning for global major asset classes.
Risk sentiment will transmit across markets. If global trade expectations continue to weaken, risk assets will struggle to remain unaffected. BTC and ETH will be disturbed by macro expectations, increasing volatility; while coins like TRUMP, which heavily rely on speculative sentiment, will be even more sensitive to changes in global demand and liquidity. Even consumer blue chips like KO Coca-Cola will face revenue pressure if overseas consumer purchasing power declines. No matter how strong the brand, it is difficult to escape the larger trade cycle.
$BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 【Oil Prices Break 90, Why Is AMZN Leading the Decline?】
Conclusion: Rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, long-term bonds suppress tech valuations, and regulation hits the advertising business. AMZN is positioned as "neutral to slightly aggressive," no orders placed for now.
Keywords: AWS, advertising, oil prices, regulation, free cash flow.
Fundamentals: Amazon drives advertising through retail traffic, contributes high profits via AWS, and forms an ecosystem moat through Prime and its logistics network. Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year; AWS grew 37%, operating profit was $27.5 billion, up 43%. However, free cash flow turned negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months, with AI capital expenditures lowering cash conversion rates. FTC and 22 states sued over its advertising bidding price-raising practices, directly threatening the high-margin advertising business.
Technicals: The stock closed at $259.77, first watch if $255 can hold; a rebound above $267.5 would signal recovery, while a break below $255 targets $239. Hitting support does not mean buying; must wait for a bottoming structure and volume confirmation.
Memory points: AWS drives growth, advertising drives profits, regulation is touching Amazon's profit engine. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $AMZN A rough analysis shows that in the past thirty days, the spot inflow volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum were 1.5 billion and 570 million respectively, while the contract volumes were 7.8 billion and 1.5 billion.
The inflow ratio of Ethereum contracts to spot is much higher than that of Bitcoin, but after the rally, the outflow ratio of Ethereum contracts is much higher than that of spot. This indicates that spot traders are not interested in the current Bitcoin price. Ethereum traders are somewhat interested in spot, but not much; clearly, they are more interested in volatility. These facts are enough to indicate the future market trend. If spot traders are not attracted, the price will be tested until it reaches a level they are satisfied with.
Additionally, the spikes in these recent market moves were all caused by order cancellations. The crypto market is still very deep and complex.The negative impact of the interest rate hike has just been digested, and this week's data is overwhelmingly dense.
Employment data, policy statements, and interest rate expectations overlap, making it difficult for the market to break out of a one-sided trend in the short term. Washington's stance is still being tested; risk assets will first be priced with a "wait-and-see + volatility" approach, and crypto cannot escape the macro liquidity window.
On the market front, BTC resembles a high-level box range battle, with 76,000–81,000 as the recent key range. Breakouts or breakdowns require volume and macro support; otherwise, it will just be up-and-down sweeps. ETH and SOL are relatively resilient, with limited downside for now but lacking strong catalysts, following BTC and ecosystem capital flows. Platform/ecosystem-related assets like OKB are more sensitive to trading sentiment and platform activity, so their volatility will be amplified.
In terms of operations, don't rush to bet on a direction; the data week is most dangerous for premature positioning. In the short term, watch the range boundaries and stop losses, and reduce leverage; in the medium term, only watch whether the structure is broken. The correlation between gold and BTC, the path of the US dollar interest rate, and market adjustments to rate cut expectations after employment data will continue to influence risk appetite. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 # Latest Updates
- US-Iran tensions remain balanced, Trump is restrained, Besent continues to apply pressure. Brent crude oil rose 2.92% to $90.67, the 10-year yield increased 3.6 basis points to 4.75%, hitting a nearly 2-year high, suppressing risk sentiment.
- Besent hinted that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in September to strengthen the yen, and the ECB is also expected to hike rates in September. No short-term carry trade unwind impact, but global liquidity is effectively tightening, suppressing risk assets.
- Crypto fluctuates around the 80,000 mark, BTC at 78,500, ETH at 2446. On August 28, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $202 million, ETH ETFs a net inflow of $102 million, and USDC supply decreased by 0.31% month-on-month.
- Nvidia invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek via convertible bonds, deepening chip cooperation, jointly developing PC and smart car chips, promoting MediaTek's adoption of NVLink Fusion.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain previous conclusions: no consensus on rate hike timing, US-Iran situation, or semiconductor direction.
- Brent crude oil stands above $90, 10-year yield rises to 4.75%, a nearly 2-year high, suppressing US stocks. Bulls bet on geopolitical restraint and economic resilience, bears worry about oil prices causing inflation volatility and long-term rate hikes. Volatility stems from sentiment swings, not fundamental deterioration.
- The core conflict shifts from hardware shortages to ROI validation. Differences before Anthropic's IPO filing remain unresolved, maintaining a range-bound outlook.Speaking of MicroStrategy in the crypto space, the market still vividly remembers its early aggressive strategy of "ignoring price, only accumulating Bitcoin." However, by 2026, this "all-in" logic has been completely restructured and replaced by a precise opportunistic allocation philosophy. Its operational path within the year can be regarded as a textbook-level strategic pivot. Full review of accumulation trajectory in the first half of the year: · January: average price 95,284, spent 2.16 billion heavily to buy; · April: largest single investment of the year, 2 billion to acquire 34,164 coins; · May 11-17: spent 2.01 billion, buying 24,869 coins at an average price of 80,985; · June 15-21: symbolically increased by only 520 coins, basically ceased activity; · July: completely "laid back," zero operations; · August 24-30: acted again, invested 369.7 million, buying 4,603 coins at an average price of 80,318. Behind the surface lies a profound transformation of three fundamental logics: First, the financing lifeline has changed, cheap ammunition is exhausted. The zero-interest convertible bond "honeymoon period" of 2024 is gone forever; the nearly costless balance sheet expansion channel at that time has closed. Now, MicroStrategy must turn to high-cost preferred stock financing or raise funds by issuing more shares, which will directly dilute existing owners' equity. To balance the balance sheet and the value per Bitcoin unit, its pace of balance sheet expansion must inevitably slow down. Second, timing has become the new muscle memory, rather than simply bottom-fishing. According to JPMorgan statisticsToday's market is very typical: BTC is oscillating around highs, and everyone watches the market while considering whether to move their positions. When there is a floating profit on the books, people naturally feel they have "money."
But the payment page doesn't recognize your emotions.
The most frustrating scenario isn't losing money, but having assets but having AI memberships expire before the meeting; Running out of code tool quotas; Cloud service deductions failing; Wanting to buy a gift card at night to cover shopping budget, only to find you have to go through the process of exchanging assets, receiving funds, and paying again.
Small bills of $20, $30, $50—the amount may not seem large, but they're the best at interrupting the pace. Especially for subscriptions like AI tools, interrupting isn't just about losing a day of membership—it can suddenly stall your entire workflow. You probably don't want to sell a position for just a few dozen dollars, nor to redo your entire funding path for a small purchase.
So now, when I look at crypto fund flows, I divide money into two layers:
The first layer is positioning, continuing to bear volatility and absorb market movements.
The other layer is the money you'll definitely spend in the next 3 to 7 days, like AI memberships, software subscriptions, cloud services, gift cards, and shopping budgets. This money shouldn't keep fluctuating with the market; its goal isn't to earn more, but to be able to use it at the right time.
Many people only count fees but ignore hidden costs: the time needed to temporarily switch assets, the loss from price slips, retries after failed payments, the suspension after expired bills, and the effort to replan every small purchase.
Having assets does not mean having resources to use$BTC is consolidating between 77462 and 79256, with a trading volume of 414 million, while $ETH is even more timid, fluctuating between 2410 and 2490 with less than 80 points of volatility and a trading volume of only 229 million. Looking at the OKX order book, buy and sell orders are sparse, and both funding rates and open interest show little change. This kind of low-volume sideways movement indicates that both bulls and bears have paused; no one wants to reveal their hand first.
How will September unfold? Here’s my conclusion: most likely, it will continue to consolidate until the Federal Reserve provides direction, then the market will pick a side.
The most critical event in September is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting. Currently, the market is divided on whether there will be a rate hike in September, but the overall tendency is no hike. The problem is that the positive effect of "no rate hike" has already been largely priced in. The fact that BTC touched above 80,000 at the end of August but was pushed back shows that "no rate hike" alone can no longer drive a breakout. What can really energize the market is the Fed signaling a rate cut or at least lowering the "higher for longer" tone. This is unlikely to happen in September and may have to wait until the fourth quarter.
Therefore, my expectation for September is mainly range-bound volatility, with the center of gravity possibly shifting slightly downward but no crash. BTC’s major range is between 74,000 and 82,000, and ETH’s is between 2200 and 2600. After a prolonged low-volume sideways movement, the market will have to choose a direction, likely around the interest rate meeting.
My own strategy is simple: keep the base position unchanged, reduce short-term frequency, and keep enough ammunition. If $BTC retraces to the 75,000-76,000 range, I will gradually buy in with a stop loss below 74,000; if it rebounds directly to 80,000-81,000 without volume, I will reduce some short-term positions. For ETH, I’m watching 2350-2380; if it falls to that area and stabilizes on low volume, I’ll consider buying. In between, I basically stay put.
Honestly, September has always been one of the most grinding months in the crypto space. Don’t expect a sudden breakout, and don’t fear an instant crash. The most important thing is not to predict but to manage your positions and expectations well, so you don’t get whipsawed in the volatility. I’m also watching options data on OKX; the market’s fear of a big drop isn’t high, nor is there crazy chasing of rallies. Under these conditions, it’s most likely to be lukewarm water.#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
I am Cige. BTC couldn't hold above 80000 and has now fallen back to oscillate between 77000 and 78000. The ETF net inflow streak of 9 consecutive days ended on August 28, institutional buying paused for now, while retail activity has actually risen to a nearly two-year high.
The correlation between BTC and gold is strengthening, while the correlation with the Nasdaq is weakening. This signal is more worth watching than price fluctuations. The market is starting to discuss whether BTC is running an independent trend, no longer just following tech stocks. After the ETF buying cools down, whether retail and spot demand can support the market is the most direct variable going forward. The synchronous strengthening of BTC and gold is not just a short-term phenomenon; it is a systemic migration of capital re-pricing fiat credit. Geopolitical conflicts and interest rate hike expectations are happening simultaneously, so short-term oscillations are inevitable, but the underlying logic remains unchanged.
The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 After the $BTC NVIDIA earnings report landed, the AI infrastructure earnings baton was passed to Broadcom and Dell, representing the AI custom chip and AI server system tracks respectively. Their performance and guidance will directly verify the real fulfillment capability of AI capital expenditures. Broadcom holds large ASIC orders from cloud providers, with impressive growth in AI semiconductor revenue, but in the past, there have been cases where meeting performance targets but missing guidance expectations triggered stock price pullbacks. The market is no longer satisfied with simple high revenue growth but pays more attention to long-term delivery pace and gross margin resilience. Dell is rapidly expanding based on AI server orders, benefiting both server and storage businesses simultaneously. The market focus is on whether orders can smoothly convert into revenue and whether upstream component supply will constrain shipment pace.
Currently, the AI sector valuation has fully priced in high prosperity. Even if earnings data exceed expectations, if management is conservative in guidance for subsequent quarters, it is still easy to trigger capital realization and exit. Conversely, if both companies provide strong outlooks for the next quarter, it will further consolidate the prosperity logic of AI infrastructure and drive sentiment recovery across the entire hardware sector.
It is necessary to distinguish between orders and actual revenue; sufficient backlog orders do not equal short-term profit release. Fluctuations in cloud providers' capital expenditures and supply chain bottlenecks are potential variables. Going forward, key observations will focus on the AI business revenue proportion, gross margin changes, and future quarterly guidance, which will become important signals to judge whether the AI market rally can continue. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The SEC's crypto asset custody rules have entered the proposed rule stage, but don't treat it as "new rules have been finalized."
The official agenda item RIN 3235-AN46 proposes to handle investment advisor client assets, investment company fund assets, and crypto asset custody simultaneously; the NPRM target is October 2026, with no rule text or statutory deadline yet.
Therefore, who can custody, what the control standards are, and which provisions will change remain unanswered in public materials.
It is also not a direct revival of the 2023 plan: the SEC officially withdrew the Safeguarding Advisory Client Assets proposal in 2025 and stated that future actions require new proposed rules.
A more practical issue for institutions is: who can initiate operations, who can approve, how permissions are separated, how accounts are isolated, and how authorization and revocation are recorded. With rules undecided, the evidentiary chain for responsibility boundaries can be supplemented first.
Information sources: SEC Unified Agenda (RIN 3235-AN46); SEC 2025 withdrawal announcement; SEC 2023-30.
#CryptoCustody #SEC #DigitalAssets #AI #Web3 #MPCAll drops below 78,000 are fake breakdowns; the $1 billion ETF investment was not wasted. What are you still waiting for?
$1 billion in real money is taking the baton, and you tell me this is the top?
News: Bitfinex reports that last week, the US spot $BTC and $ETH saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion, with ETH investment products netting $815 million. This August rally is supported by spot buying, with a moderate increase in open contracts and controlled basis — this is not a fake rise built on leverage, but real money buying in.
Technical analysis: RSI6=33.95, approaching oversold. Price retraced from 81,455 down to 78,280, just hitting a key support zone. MACD histogram continues to narrow, indicating bearish momentum exhaustion. The 79,000-80,000 range above is a dense short liquidation zone; once it rebounds, it will be a short squeeze.
Capital flow: 15-day level still shows a net inflow of 8.561 billion; long-term funds have not left at all. Short-term outflows are just profit-taking, the big trend remains intact.
Personal view: Continuous net inflows from ETFs + spot buying support + RSI oversold, 78,000 is the golden pit.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive: go long near the current price of 78,280.
Conservative: go long on a pullback to 77,500-77,800. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
Strategy and BitMine simultaneously increase holdings, corporate coin hoarding wave resurges
Latest data
Strategy resumes BTC buying, BitMine increases ETH holdings, two listed companies simultaneously expand their crypto treasury. Market price $BTC 78029.
Market consensus
Optimists see this as a strong signal of long-term institutional confidence; cautious voices remind that corporate coin purchases have their own capital operation logic and do not mean a short-term price surge.
Underlying logic analysis
This is not retail-style chasing gains, but treating crypto assets as a company balance sheet allocation option. Large enterprises continuously entering will gradually change the market's capital structure, but the pace of accumulation is unlikely to directly determine short-term price trends.
Personal view (personal inclination towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
A long-term positive signal worth noting, not suitable for short-term speculation, still mainly follow macro liquidity trends.If an interest rate hike is chosen in September, where will Bitcoin's first wave drop to? Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is around 57%, with Jackson Hole releasing a strong hawkish statement. It is important to distinguish: the market has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations in advance; the real impact comes from two things: the official announcement of the rate hike + the press conference continuing to be hawkish, rather than just the rate hike itself. 4.9 million USD is not a large amount in crypto security incidents. But there is a time gap that is even more glaring than this sum: during the 4 hours when on-chain funds were drained and the network was forced to pause, what was the official Injective account doing? Posting marketing content. It wasn’t "too late to issue a statement," nor "still under evaluation." It was continuing to post marketing content as if nothing had happened. This is the part of the news that struck me as most off. A "posting machine running as usual" is scarier than a zombie oracle. Let me clarify the technical issue first: the attacker exploited an oracle called Frontrunner, which had been deprecated but whose "account" was not deregistered and remained registered on-chain. The attacker created 299 markets pointing to this "no-price" oracle, triggering the protocol’s "no-price refund" protection mechanism, which in turn granted about double compensation. The stolen USDC was converted into 1980 ETH, quietly sitting in an Ethereum wallet. The mechanism isn’t complicated, and the lesson is clear: "deactivation" does not equal "deregistration"; zombie components in DeFi are like landmines buried underground. But what really made me ponder repeatedly was another thing— While 4.9 million was drained on-chain and the network was down for 4 hours, an official account that should represent the project’s will chose to continue executing its marketing calendar. The posting machine didn’t stop because it never needed to stop. Its service target might no longer be the "community," but rather an inertia of "maintaining appearances." This precisely exposes more than just the failure...On the macro front, three events squeezed in within a few days:
The US and Iran are at it again—US forces airstruck Larak Island, Iran retaliated with missiles targeting the US base in Jordan, and Brent crude oil prices surged back above $90. As oil prices rise, inflation expectations climb; after a hawkish stance from Powell, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to 65%, and US Treasury yields broke above 4.75%. High-volatility assets now face an added constraint.
On the other side, Seller declared "We're back," with MicroStrategy actually buying 3.7 billion yuan worth of BTC at an average price of 80,300, compressing their holding cost to 75,400, and turning their book back to positive—this was a timely boost to market sentiment.
Today's market:
$BTC failed to hold above 79,000, retreating to around 78,300, with bulls and bears both waiting.
$ETH is relatively strong, near 2,466, outperforming BTC, with the exchange rate gradually recovering.
$SOL violently rebounded 47% in August, touched 110, the strongest among major coins, now taking a breather at a high level.
$CORE, $CFX, $BICO have no independent trends, purely following beta, with thin volume, all eyes on $BTC's mood.
$LAB is recommended to be withdrawn immediately—named by ZachXBT as manipulated by the team, the whale dumped 92% in a month, unlocking only in August, a fundamentally flawed token to avoid.
Before the rate decision on the 16th, stay light and watch.Why are the price trends of gold and BTC, both hard assets, starting to diverge?
For a long time, the market referred to BTC as digital gold, and the two often rose and fell together. But recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged: gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs are both attracting capital, yet intraday they sometimes experience synchronized sell-offs or mismatched price movements, with a clear weakening correlation and a divergence in their trends.
📌 The underlying driving logic of the two is completely different
Gold
1. Core anchor is real interest rates; rising U.S. Treasury yields directly suppress gold prices; only when yields fall does gold experience major rallies.
2. Buyer structure: long-term allocations by central banks, institutional hedging, physical consumption; tends to be a conservative defensive asset. Geopolitical conflicts and inflation risks prioritize gold as a safe haven.
3. Characteristics: pure safe haven and store of value, relatively mild volatility, almost no leverage-driven disturbances.
Bitcoin
1. Half is a hard asset hedge, the other half is a high-beta risk asset; besides interest rates, it is heavily influenced by market risk appetite, ETF capital, and contract liquidation leverage.
2. Buyer structure: spot ETF institutions, large crypto holders, retail investors; capital rotation effects are very strong.
3. Characteristics: strong upward momentum, but once risk appetite declines, cascading liquidations of contracts can amplify the downturn.
🧩 Three current practical reasons for the divergence
1. Facing the same interest rate hike expectations, the pressure levels differ
Hawkish statements from the Fed push U.S. Treasury yields higher. Gold is directly suppressed by real interest rates; BTC, besides interest rates, also suffers from dual shocks of contract long-short liquidations and shrinking risk appetite, causing more volatile swings than gold.
2. The safe haven narrative is no longer fully applicable
Geopolitical conflicts do not necessarily cause both to rise together.
When oil prices surge and push inflation expectations up, the market tends to trade on "continued rate hikes," during which safe haven funds prioritize buying the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, causing both gold and BTC to be sold off; only when there are concerns about the credit system itself do their safe haven properties simultaneously come into play.
3. Although capital flows in simultaneously, it is not the same pool of money
Capital flowing into gold ETFs often comes from traditional macro hedging institutions; capital flowing into BTC ETFs comes from institutions allocating to alternative assets. The trading goals and stop-loss thresholds of these two types of capital are completely different, leading to situations where ETFs are both increasing positions but intraday price movements diverge.
✅ Practical takeaways
Stop rigidly thinking "if gold rises, BTC must rise."
- Strong nonfarm payroll data and rising rate hike expectations likely put pressure on both gold and BTC;
- Weak nonfarm data and rising expectations of rate cuts provide a basis for recovery in both;
- During intermediate consolidation phases, divergence is likely, with one holding up and the other lagging.
Gold is a defensive store-of-value tool; BTC is an alternative asset with risk attributes. They can complement each other in a portfolio but should not be analyzed with the same logic.
$BTC🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow. 💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is simply because of the so-called “digital gold” trade. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
After Jackson Hole, the hawkish tone released by Walsh has already rewritten the market's pricing for September interest rates. Now, the intensive U.S. employment reports have become the key testing ground to verify his policy stance.
The nonfarm payrolls, the most important employment report before the FOMC meeting, will directly determine whether the expectations for rate hikes will further intensify.
If the employment data is strong, it means the labor market remains hot, making it harder for inflation to fall, which will reinforce the trading logic for a September rate hike. Risk assets including BTC, ETH will face significant pressure.
Conversely, if employment data weakens, it will offset Walsh's previously hawkish statements, cooling rate hike expectations and giving crypto assets a chance to breathe and rebound.
The current market situation is very delicate.
ETF institutional funds are still flowing in, providing underlying support to the market, but macro-level uncertainties hang overhead. Volatility will significantly increase around the data release, with spikes and stop-loss sweeps becoming the norm.
Do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance.
Spot holdings can continue to patiently hold favored assets; contracts must reduce positions, avoid one-sided bets during the data release phase, and wait for a clear market structure before making the next move.
$BTC $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Reality often contradicts expectations: TVL hits new highs, yet tokens continue to decline.
Take three examples: AAVE, COMP, $UNI. DefiLlama shows the ecosystem TVL steadily rising, but token price elasticity is far weaker than that of public chain altcoins. TheBlock's report reveals the truth: a large portion of current TVL comes from stablecoin deposits, not native token staking; rising TVL does not equal increased token demand.
AAVE platform's stablecoin proportion keeps increasing; COMP protocol revenue is recovering, but token unlocks continue to release selling pressure; UNI has decent trading volume, but the protocol's fee capture ability is relatively weak.
When evaluating DeFi projects, prioritize "protocol's real revenue and native token proportion of TVL" rather than just total locked value. TVL can be inflated by stablecoins, which is a common pitfall.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 I am the mid-term intelligence guy!
Today let's talk about $ZEC. The most critical point in this round is not whether it surges to 800 or 880.
Previously, it dropped from just above 500 USD all the way up close to 880 USD$, then retraced about 10%, which is a normal short-term shakeout.
But what changes the valuation logic in my eyes is that Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has officially started trading on NYSE Arca, holding about 393,000 ZEC and over 260 million USD.
The biggest hurdle for privacy coins used to be that traditional funds couldn't enter compliantly, and institutions would leave after a glance. Now ZCSH has torn open this door—Wall Street accounts can directly buy ZEC exposure without touching private keys or worrying about compliance gray areas. This step is worth much more than a new price high.
Of course, short-term shakeouts will still happen; futures open interest once neared 1.8 billion USD, leverage is not low, so spikes are inevitable.
But as long as this pullback doesn't break the trend, my mid-term view remains unchanged: ZEC's table has shifted from an internal crypto gamble to a venue where Wall Street can sit down.
$BTC
$ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 If an interest rate hike is chosen in September, where will Bitcoin's first wave drop to?
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is around 57%, with Jackson Hole releasing a strong hawkish statement. It is important to distinguish: the market has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations in advance; the real impact comes from two things: the official announcement of the rate hike + the press conference continuing to be hawkish, rather than just the rate hike itself.
🔻Scenario: 25bp rate hike in September combined with a hawkish speech
This would be a negative surprise, causing risk assets to collectively come under pressure. BTC's first wave of decline has three target levels:
1. First pullback: 75000‑76000
This is the primary test zone for the first wave, where a large number of long liquidation pools are concentrated. It is also the recent buyback range after multiple retests. ETF spot funds will likely start to support here.
If strong buying supports this level, there could be a quick rebound after a brief dip, maintaining a large range of oscillation.
2. Second target: 72000‑73000
If the 75000 support is broken with heavy volume, leveraged longs will be liquidated in a chain reaction, pushing the price to this level. This is an important mid-term defense zone for the long structure and a key concentration area of chips in this rally.
A drop here means the high-level oscillation pattern of this round is officially broken, with altcoins and ETH likely to fall significantly more than BTC.
3. Extreme dip: around 70000
This would only occur if there is a rate hike + continued strong hawkish guidance, combined with a geopolitical black swan event, making this a low-probability scenario.
✅If there is a rate hike but the press conference is neutral
The rate hike is implemented, but Jackson Hole signals no further hawkish tightening, implying no certainty of more hikes.
The negative impact is priced in as "sell the expectation, buy the fact," so BTC will likely only experience a short-term pulse dip to 76000‑77000, then quickly rebound to the original 77000‑80000 range, avoiding a deep decline.
🧱The dual reality: no mindless one-way crash
- Suppression: Rate hikes raise real interest rates, pressuring the valuation of interest-free assets like BTC, and contract longs will be liquidated.
- Support: The US spot BTC ETF continues to see net inflows, with real institutional spot buying, limiting the downside and making an endless one-way crash unlikely.
Practical reminder:
Do not short in advance betting on a rate hike. Often, when expectations are fully priced in, the actual event results in the negative impact being fully absorbed.
Focus on market reaction after the event, not just the decision text. Spot base positions can be retained; during the rate hike window, reduce contract positions as spikes can be very aggressive.
$BTC#OKXPlanetThe core of the Tectonic incident this time was not that the attacker obtained some admin private key. Public information shows that the attacker pushed the liquidity-thin TONIC up about 100 times within approximately 20 minutes, then used these temporarily inflated tokens as collateral to attempt to borrow about $74 million in real assets. Ultimately, about $6 million left Cronos, while most of the remaining funds stayed on-chain. The basic logic of lending protocols is "collateral value × collateral factor = borrow limit." The problem is that on-chain data can prove how many tokens you hold, but cannot automatically prove that these tokens can be sold at the current quoted price. If a shallow market is pumped up in a short time and the protocol directly uses this price, the attacker gains not just a paper profit but a borrowing limit that can be exchanged for highly liquid assets. Therefore, price feeds cannot be designed independently of market depth. Multi-source quotes and time-weighted averages can only reduce single-point manipulation; collateral factors, borrowing caps, executable liquidity, and price deviation circuit breakers must work together. New collateral or thin liquidity assets should also enter isolation mode to prevent abnormal valuations in one market from draining the entire fund pool. Wallets also have limitations. They can alert the protocol to pause, signal short-term severe price deviations, insufficient collateral liquidity, or that a single loan is approaching the market limit; but they cannot prove on behalf of a lending protocol that the oracle is necessarily correct. Signature risk addresses "whether you agree to this call," while protocol risk addresses "this call"...[Bitcoin Outlook for Next Week and Mid-Term] It's still too early to confirm a bull market, but opportunities come from the dips! Bull market confirmation condition: If it breaks through and holds above the previous cycle peak at 83,000, consider the bear market bottom confirmed and the bull market arriving early. Before confirmation, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. However, opportunities also come from the dips; regardless of whether the bull market arrives, this does not affect the bottom-fishing strategy. Responding is more important than predicting. Next movement forecast and response strategy: End of August: Bitcoin falls into the 20-day short cycle bottom, suppressed by the 78,000-80,000 resistance zone, leading to an adjustment. It may subsequently rebound to form a 20-day short cycle peak in early September. See Figure 1. Technically, Bitcoin is currently approaching the 4-hour pitchfork red median resistance at 79,500. If it reaches here, a small pullback is expected. See Figure 2. Mid-September: Bitcoin adjusts to the 40-day short cycle bottom. If it falls to around 75,500 or other lower support levels, consider a rebound. Mid-October 80-day cycle bottom / late this year to early next year major bottom: This is a larger cycle bottom, expected to have a deeper correction. If it falls to the previously mentioned very cheap zone, it will be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity. See Figure 3. Currently, it is in the cheap zone. Ideally, Bitcoin falls to around 55,000; then we will see if the market offers opportunities later. On the macro side, on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh made statements about interest rates and inflation, causing significant market volatility. Although the tone was hawkish, given weak US nonfarm payroll data and the election background, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in the short term is low, and interest rate policy is likely to remain accommodative. Therefore, whether gold, silver, or Bitcoin, the probability of an immediate deep correction is low; short term is more about consolidation and accumulation. In terms of operations, Bitcoin bought at the very cheap zone of 63,000 is still held. The short position at 78,200 has partially moved to take profit and continues with a stop loss at 82,500. Citibank's latest research report provides an important forecast: the Reserve Bank of India may start raising interest rates in the second half of fiscal year 2027, with a cumulative increase of 50-75 basis points. As a major emerging economy globally, India is forced to shift toward tightening due to the real pressure of imported inflation.
Over 80% of India's crude oil is imported. Recently, conflicts in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude oil prices to stabilize at $90, and the continuous rise in oil prices directly exacerbates domestic inflation. The rupee exchange rate is under pressure, and the dual risks are forcing a policy shift. Although current inflation remains within a tolerable range of 2-6%, ongoing disturbances in energy and food prices pose a risk of further inflation increases. The market has already begun pricing in the possibility of precautionary rate hikes.
Emerging markets collectively tightening monetary policy is a significant signal globally at present. The rise in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan has already begun, and now India is entering a potential rate hike cycle. Global liquidity contraction is no longer a solo act by the United States.
Regional rate hikes will produce spillover effects. Rising local bond yields will attract some funds remaining in risk markets to return to fixed income. Reflecting on the crypto market, BTC and ETH will indirectly bear the pressure of global liquidity tightening; while coins like TRUMP, which heavily rely on speculative enthusiasm, will be more sensitive to changes in the global funding environment. Even consumer blue-chip KO Coca-Cola, under a generally rising global interest rate environment, will see its valuation suppressed by discount rates. No matter how strong the fundamentals, it is difficult to fully resist the macro tide.Friends, there's a big event today — WLFI has officially launched on the mainnet for claiming and trading. But I don't plan to take action today; here are a few observations: 1. Unlock pressure test: Early supporters from the first two rounds can unlock 20% today. Although this is milder than the previously rumored "full unlock," with a price of $0.05 compared to a cost of $0.015, early users still have a 3x profit, so selling pressure is real. 2. Beware of huge loss cases: AI Financial has a paper loss of $850 million. Will this company take some actions to stop losses? Uncertain, but this is a risk factor. 3. Justin Sun's criticism is not baseless: Pledging 5 billion tokens to borrow 75 million stablecoins — this operation is called "circular leverage" in traditional finance and "fancy cash-out" in crypto. Where the liquidity went is worth pondering. There may be short-term trading opportunities, but fundamental recovery will take time. I will wait until the first wave of sell-offs passes and on-chain data becomes clear before making a judgment. Let's discuss in the comments: Are you planning to act today or just watch?This ticking bomb on September 4th can't be avoided: Nonfarm payrolls + options expiration, will $BTC face a double whammy or a double tap?
The biggest bomb this week isn't the Fed, but Friday (9/4) US August nonfarm payrolls, which directly determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
Consensus expects an increase of 55,000 to 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 4.1%. Looks ordinary? But July's report shocked the market with a surprise drop of 23,000, causing a cold sweat.
More importantly, this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the Fed meeting on 9/15-16. After the hawkish stance from Waller, this data is the final weight on the scale.
If weaker than expected → rate cut expectations resurge → dollar softens, BTC surges to 80,000;
If stronger than expected → rate hike probability maxes out → risk assets suffer.
Historically, when nonfarm payrolls deviate from consensus, BTC can swing 3% to 5% within hours. Coupled with the September quarterly options expiration (quadruple witching day approaching), Deribit has tens of billions in notional CALL positions at 80,000 to 100,000 USD, with bulls and bears set for a showdown around expiration.
My advice: Don't heavily bet on direction this week, save your bullets for after 9/4. #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 NVIDIA just invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek, and it’s not a simple stock purchase but a subscription to convertible bonds.
On the surface, it looks like an investment in MediaTek, but in reality, it’s more like NVIDIA spending money to expand its AI ecosystem.
In the future, MediaTek can use NVLink Fusion to directly connect its self-developed CPUs, XPUs, and AI chips to NVIDIA’s data center systems. Simply put: customers can design their own chips, but they will ultimately run on the "highway" built by NVIDIA.
This is the most important aspect of this deal.
In the past, NVIDIA mainly built its advantage through GPUs, but now it is starting to spread NVLink, memory, software, and interconnect standards across the entire AI hardware industry chain. MediaTek is responsible for chip design capabilities, NVIDIA provides the ecosystem and connection standards, and both sides will continue to work on AI PCs and smart cars.
However, there is controversy here.
NVIDIA has recently been continuously investing in AI industry chain companies, and the market is beginning to worry about a kind of "circular financing": NVIDIA first invests in ecosystem partners, partners then use NVIDIA technology, and ultimately this reinforces NVIDIA’s revenue. Jensen Huang explicitly denies this is a circular transaction, but this kind of capital relationship will increasingly warrant close attention.
Two scenarios are very clear.
If MediaTek really uses NVLink to enter data center customized AI chips, NVIDIA will no longer be just the GPU overlord but will be turning the entire AI infrastructure standard into its own ecosystem.
If these huge investments are mainly capital-driven cooperation without bringing real end-user demand, the market will sooner or later question whether AI capital expenditures are truly justified.Yesterday I was still waiting for Dell to take over, and today that baton has already hit my account.
As soon as Dell's earnings report came out, the market didn't just look at "whether AI server orders are many or not," but directly chased after profit margins and cash flow, asking: With sales so strong, are they actually making money?
This question immediately caused the AI hardware chain to start diverging.
Today I shorted $MINIMAX a bit first, took some profit and ran, didn’t dare to hold on. The real comfort is $SNDK, with a short position near 1558, thanks to Dell, the current unrealized profit rate has exceeded 100%.
Of course, it’s not that SanDisk’s stock price dropped by half, but 75x leverage magnified less than 2% fluctuations. Watching the numbers is satisfying, but I know clearly that if it rebounds a bit, the profits can instantly be given back.
Next up are AVGO and SNOW.
Broadcom needs to prove that custom chips and network equipment can really make money; Snowflake needs to prove that AI isn’t just burning money, and enterprise customers are willing to pay for usage and subscriptions.
My current thinking is simple: if earnings beat expectations but the stock doesn’t rise, look for opportunities to short; if earnings and guidance both rise and the pullback can hold, then consider going long.
This round of earnings reports is no longer about who can tell the AI story, but who can turn the story into real money.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK 3.2 billion funds are pouring in, yet the market is hesitant. What is missing in this round of rally?
Currently, BTC is quoted at $78,520, up slightly by 0.67% in 24 hours.
ETH is at $2,447, slightly down by 0.28%; SOL at $103.09, down 1.44%; HYPE at $81.27, also weakening by 2.39%, and OKB remains fluctuating around $112.
The total market capitalization of the overall crypto market is about $2.63 trillion.
BTC’s cumulative increase in August has exceeded 30%, but the secondary market trading activity remains sluggish. The average trading volume on mainstream platforms has shrunk by nearly 70% compared to before, staying at a three-year low range.
It is clear that the inflow of funds this time is very concentrated, mostly flowing into ETF channels. Institutional investors are buying over-the-counter, but ordinary traders have not returned to the market on a large scale, so it is not a comprehensive capital inflow.
The sector is also fragmented internally. Modular blockchains and DeFAI have shown relative resilience, recording gains of 5.17% and 3.32% respectively; in contrast, DeFi and AI Agents sectors are under pressure, falling by 0.88% and 3.35% respectively. Hotspots rotate quickly, and sustainability is not ideal.
Simply put, the buying power brought by institutions can support the market’s bottom line. But relying solely on this part of the force, it is difficult to unilaterally push the market to continue rising. To achieve further upward momentum, the trading sentiment in the secondary market needs to genuinely warm up to cooperate.Bitcoin: Setting aside liquidations and ETFs, let's talk about the often overlooked realities behind the market
Every time the market experiences a decent rebound, discussions in the community fall into a fixed pattern: everyone eagerly talks about liquidation amounts, daily ETF inflows and outflows, chasing various short-term news to predict the next big surge or drop. But many overlook one thing: short-term indicators can only explain what has already happened in the market, but they rarely tell us where the market is headed next. Let's step away from these frequently repeated data points and look at the current Bitcoin market from a different perspective.
There is an interesting phenomenon in the market now: prices are rising, but the disagreements within the market have not disappeared with the rise; instead, they have grown larger. Some participants, encouraged by the rebound profits, start to amplify expectations, directly defining the phase rebound as the full start of a new bull market; others who have experienced several bull and bear cycles remain vigilant, constantly waiting for a correction. Both viewpoints have supporting arguments, and the community is divided, making consensus difficult.
Many traders make the mistake of equating "their own wishes" with "what the market will actually do." Bulls actively collect all positive news and automatically ignore hidden risk signals in the market; bears repeatedly amplify negative news, disregarding the underlying support of the chips. When we browse social platforms and communities, most content is filtered opinions, only receiving information that aligns with our own views, gradually forming a cognitive closed loop and misjudging the true market picture.
Setting aside the over-discussed contract liquidation data, let's look at a thought-provoking change on-chain: the stock of Bitcoin held on exchanges has remained at multi-year lows. Simply put, the total amount of spot chips available for immediate trading and selling in the market has decreased. This does not mean the price can only rise, but it changes the market's operational characteristics.
After circulating chips decrease, two situations arise. If off-exchange funds are willing to enter, it doesn't take huge capital to push prices significantly higher; conversely, if the market collectively wants to sell, with limited bids to absorb, the decline speed will also be very rapid. This explains why the current market sees both sharp rises and corrections, with increasingly frequent spikes. The shrinking supply of chips amplifies the market's two-way volatility.
Here we must distinguish two completely different behavioral logics of holders.
One group is short-term traders: when the price rises above their cost, any slight market disturbance prompts them to transfer coins to exchanges to take profits and secure gains. This portion of chips represents the market's floating selling pressure.
The other group is long-term holders: after this rebound, they already have substantial unrealized profits but still choose not to sell. Their trading logic does not focus on price fluctuations of a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars but looks at multi-year cycles and will not change their holding plans due to a single rebound.
The market now is essentially a contest between these two forces. Short-term profit takers want to cash out, while long-term funds choose to hold. The market's direction depends on which force prevails.
If short-term profit-taking strengthens continuously and new off-exchange funds fail to keep up, the market will enter a consolidation phase; if incremental funds continue to enter to absorb selling chips, the market has a chance to expand further. Don't jump to conclusions based on a single data point; observe the power balance behind chip competition.
On the macro level, many people habitually treat Bitcoin simply as a speculative token, but now its correlation with global major asset classes is deepening. U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar genuinely affect institutions' risk asset choices.
A realistic situation is that Bitcoin's identity is contradictory. Sometimes it acts as a risk hedge, moving in sync with gold; but during many volatile phases, it follows risk assets like U.S. stocks, rising and falling together. It does not play a fixed role but switches attributes according to the current market environment.
Many people have a fixed mindset, believing "Bitcoin is definitely a safe-haven asset," and when U.S. stocks plunge, they expect Bitcoin to hold up against the trend, but reality often disappoints. We cannot apply a fixed label to a market that constantly changes; we must learn to observe which logic it is currently following.
Having discussed the market, let's talk about the common trading dilemmas ordinary people face, which ultimately determine profits and losses even more than candlestick charts.
When the market surges, everywhere you see screenshots of profits, creating the illusion that everyone around is making money except yourself. Under this atmosphere, fear of missing out grows, and many who were originally cautious end up rushing in. What we don't see is that many profit screenshots are only temporary unrealized gains; when the market corrects slightly, many profits quickly evaporate or even turn into losses. Unrealized profits do not equal realized gains—this is an eternal truth in crypto.
Another reality is that most people's attention is entirely focused on "predicting price movements," spending a lot of time guessing whether the price will rise or fall tomorrow, but rarely thinking about how to respond.
Predicting the market is extremely difficult; even experienced institutions cannot consistently and accurately predict every turning point. The real difference is not how many tops and bottoms you guess correctly but how you handle mistakes. When the price moves opposite to your expectation, do you have a plan to cut losses or reduce positions? When the market moves in your favor, do you know when to take profits in batches?
Prediction is only a reference for entry; response is the core of trading. Many people put the cart before the horse, focusing on prediction while neglecting risk management.
The future market will not be just "a continuous surge" or "a direct crash." A long period of wide-range consolidation is actually a highly probable scenario. After a rise, profit-taking needs to be digested, bulls and bears exchange views, and the market needs time to absorb the divergences accumulated during the rapid rise. Consolidation is the most frustrating market; it does not give you clear results but constantly tests your patience with back-and-forth moves.
Here are practical thoughts for friends with different positions.
For spot holders: don't obsess over selling at the highest point; the highest point only lasts a moment. If you have substantial unrealized profits, you can take partial profits in batches and keep a base position to follow the market. Don't fantasize about clearing your position all at once to capture the entire move, nor stubbornly hold without any adjustment. Set your own acceptable observation points; if those are defended, continue holding; if effectively broken, prepare to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH Everything is rising, but you're losing? The September crypto market script is not what you think.
BTC (Bitcoin) stood above $79,000 today, up 24% last week, marking the largest weekly gain in three years. The U.S. Treasury plans to double its long-term bond buybacks, causing money to flow back into risk assets. Coupled with a $1.92 billion net inflow into ETFs this week, this rally is purely supported by macro liquidity. However, the key test remains—the 365-day moving average at $83,000 has not been broken, so the bull market cannot be officially confirmed. Whether it can hold above $80,000 in September depends on what the Federal Reserve Chair says over the weekend.
Ethereum (ETH) is around $2,470 today, having rebounded 34% in August, but it clearly can't keep up with BTC's pace—BTC's market dominance is rising while Ethereum's share is declining. The "Glamsterdam" testnet upgrade is scheduled for September 28, aiming to cut fees by nearly 80%. While this is positive, funds currently favor BTC more, so ETH's short-term outlook still depends on BTC's performance.
$BTC $ETH #US-Iran clash again, oil tanker blocked, Brent crude returns to $90
The boss has something to say
US-Iran relations have moved from the negotiation table back to the sea. After the US military struck Iranian military facilities, Iran retaliated by attacking the US base in Jordan and intercepted a Saudi oil tanker. Brent crude has returned to $90.
The US signed cooperation agreements for 17 oil fields with Venezuela, but this cannot immediately fill the gap left by the Strait of Hormuz. $BTC $ETH $SOL
As oil prices rise further, inflation expectations and US Treasury yields are under pressure, making risk assets generally bearish.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,000-79,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC. No long positions will be taken until the direction becomes clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.#ZHIPU
Yesterday's earnings report showed a large loss,
but revenue nearly quadrupled, API calls surged, paying users increased rapidly, and with the deployment of 100,000 domestic cards' computing power, it was an unexpectedly positive factor.
The stock opened sharply up to 160 today,
then pulled back to around 150.
The morning rally was driven by sentiment.
Currently, the outlook is still quite bearish.
If any brothers shorted at 160, they should be making a good profit now.
I have to say, I'm quite envious I am Brother Ci, and this week's data is the real judge. ADP on Wednesday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, plus JOLTS and initial jobless claims, four employment reports clustered together, directly deciding whether to raise rates in September.
Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 to 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. July's Nonfarm was down 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations will be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Waller's hawkish stance will have data support.
Waller made it very clear at Jackson Hole: inflation is still too high, overall financial conditions are far from restrictive, and the labor market is still in a state of full employment. If inflation cannot "clearly and quickly enough" return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." The probability of a rate hike in September has already jumped from 35% to 65%, and the two-year Treasury yield has jumped 12 basis points. The market is already pricing in a rate hike, now waiting for data to confirm.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,600, with 80,000 turning from support into resistance. Strong employment data solidifies rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to be under pressure. Weak employment data cools rate hike expectations, giving BTC a chance to retest 80,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci is done speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Known as the "Commander-in-Chief of Wall Street's Bond Bulls," Lacy Hunt has officially shifted from being bullish on U.S. Treasuries for 40 years to bearish on long-term bonds. The Hoisington fund, where he serves, has drastically reduced its portfolio duration from about 21 years in September last year to less than 1 year in June this year, converting almost all long-term bond positions into cash. The core logic is that the global deflation dividend has ended; deglobalization, demographic shifts, and massive fiscal deficits collectively push inflation higher, fundamentally changing the long-term bond investment environment.
Meanwhile, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 2.990% intraday, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years since October 1996. The sharp drop in Japanese bonds is driven by two main factors: first, the market pricing in an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the Bank of Japan; second, the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields causing spillover effects, widening the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread and triggering a global capital reallocation, resulting in cross-market resonance between the U.S. and Japanese bond markets.
The rise in the interest rate baseline suppresses global risk assets. Within the crypto market, differentiation is evident: mainstream large-cap coins like BTC and ETH show stronger resilience to shocks; whereas coins like DOGE, TRX, and TRUMP, which heavily rely on sentiment narratives, are particularly sensitive to liquidity tightening, amplifying volatility. Even consumer blue-chip KO Coca-Cola is not entirely immune—rising rates increase discount rates, suppressing valuations. Despite strong brand and cash flow, institutional disagreements and profit-taking at high levels still occur.
The valuation bubbles born in the low-interest-rate era are being gradually squeezed. Whether stocks, bonds, or crypto tokens, one cannot simply replicate old-cycle trading strategies.$BTC has dropped twice already, how many brothers are still holding on to the bull run?
I am actually more convinced this is a short squeeze:
1. Look at the 52-week moving average, the average price is 81,700; but the recent high was 81,500, not broken. This means it's still early to confirm a bull market.
2. Look at the macro situation, aside from Chuanzi's hype, the real useful info is the doubling of government bond repos. What kind of character is Chuanzi? Someone who was negotiating the night before but ready to fight early the next morning, not trustworthy.
3. But maybe everyone got too excited. Because the fear and greed index rose from extreme fear at 22 to extreme greed at 76; and since ETF net inflows haven't surpassed June's net outflows, the whole network is shouting bull market return.
4. Of course, I don't recommend shorting because this is a short squeeze. Your short positions might become fuel to break through 82,000.
So I choose to take partial profits on $BTC spot for swing trading. If it rises to 86,000, then I was wrong, and I'll buy back at the high then. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 1. Macro Background: Hawkish Pressure at the Top, but Spot Buying Supports the Market
Brothers, let's first review the big picture. Last week, Powell (Warsh)'s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole directly smashed BTC from above $81,000. The probability of a September rate hike has already surged to 57%, and U.S. Treasury yields are also pushing higher — definitely not good news for risk assets.
But interestingly, BTC did not collapse. Bitfinex's analysis is crucial: the August rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not leveraged positions — open interest gradually increased but basis was restrained, and last week the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows. What does this indicate? Institutions are bottom-fishing, not retail FOMO.
In summary of the macro: rate hike expectations are pressing down, but ETF funds are providing support, with bulls and bears in a tense standoff.
---
2. BTC: Tug-of-War Between 78K-79K, Direction Choice Approaching
Market snapshot:
BTC is currently trading in the $78,700-$79,000 range, with a daily gain of about 1.4%, and a 24-hour volatility range of $77,387-$79,327. It briefly broke above $79,000 overnight but failed to hold — indicating significant selling pressure above 79K.
Key levels:
· Resistance above: 79,170-79,270 (short-term upper limit), 79,400-80,000 (psychological barrier), 81,000 (previous high dense lock-up zone)
· Support below: 77,300-77,400 (intraday low area), 77,020 (primary support), 76,🚨 BITCOIN’S NEXT BIG MOVE MAY DEPEND ON ONE NUMBER.
$BTC is holding around $78K, but the real battle could be decided by Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Bitcoin had a powerful August, gaining roughly 23%, but the rejection above $80K shows sellers are still defending that zone.
Now September starts with a major macro test.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — $77K support | $79.4K–$80.8K resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — highly sensitive to liquidity.
#DailyOrbit $BTC is still at a high level
Boldly short
The current rate hike expectations are ridiculously high
Non-farm payroll data will most likely be bearish for crypto
There’s no reason not to short
But be sure to set take profit and stop loss
This time take profit is set at 76800
Stop loss is set at 79000
The cost-performance ratio is quite high
This position was opened near 78250
Now above 78300
Short-term actually hasn’t made a profit yet
But the reason I dare to short is not guessing the top
It’s because the market’s pricing for a September rate hike has already risen to about 65%
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to around 4.78%
High interest rates naturally put pressure on high-volatility assets
If non-farm payrolls continue to be strong this week
The rate cut fantasy will take another hit
$XAUT is actually worth watching
After rate hike expectations heated up, gold has already pulled back
Indicating that high yields are also pressuring interest-free assets
If gold continues to weaken while US Treasuries stay strong
Risk assets will have a hard time performing comfortably
I’m not bearish on $SNDK’s fundamentals
AI data centers are still driving up storage demand
The company’s next quarter revenue guidance is also strong
And it plans to continue heavy expansion with Kioxia
So if it really drops
I’d rather see it as a pullback
Not shorting along with the crypto crowd
If $BTC reaches 79000 this time, I admit I’m wrong
At 76800 I’ll take profit
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#Employment data densely released, Walsh’s policy stance tested
#Earnings observer: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns tested again Strategy increased its holdings again after more than two months.
On August 31, the 8-K filing disclosed: from August 24 to 30, 4,603 BTC were purchased at an average price of $80,318, with a total investment of $369.7 million.
Once the news broke, Strategy's stock price closed up 4.42% that day.
Many only focus on “bought 4,603 BTC.” But as an observer tracking this company for three years, I noticed three more noteworthy details.
/ Detail One: Saylor's “Preview”
On Sunday, August 30, Saylor posted a tweet on X with just three words—“We're Back”—along with a company Bitcoin holding "orange dot" accumulation chart.
The next day, Monday, the 8-K filing disclosed the increase.
This is no coincidence.
In recent months, Saylor has been very low-key. The last time Strategy declared a Bitcoin purchase was June 22. There was a ten-week gap in between.
Then suddenly he tweeted on Sunday, and the filing came out Monday.
What does this mean?
This was not a spur-of-the-moment decision. It was pre-planned.
Saylor is managing market expectations via social media. He knew there would be an announcement Monday, so he gave the market a signal 24 hours in advance—"We're coming back."
This is not the first time. Over the past three years, before every major move, Saylor has shown a similar "preview" pattern. Sunday tweets let the market digest the info early, so the stock price can stabilize or even rise when Monday's announcement comes.
One detail reveals all intentions: he’s not telling the market "I bought," he’s telling the market "I’m going to buy."
/ Detail Two: Change in Funding Source
This is the easiest to overlook but most worth digging into.
This purchase was fully funded by the MSTR stock ATM program. During the same period, Strategy sold 4.5314 million shares of MSTR common stock via ATM, raising about $602.8 million net.
In 2024, Strategy used zero-coupon convertible bonds.
For most of 2025, they also used convertible bonds and preferred stock financing.
Now? Common stock issuance.
What’s the difference?
Convertible bonds: low or zero interest, almost no equity dilution, a "smart money" play.
Common stock issuance: directly dilutes existing shareholders, higher financing cost.
Strategy clearly has cheaper financing options but chose the more expensive one.
What does this imply?
It suggests the convertible bond market may have closed its doors to Strategy or the terms are no longer favorable. It also means Strategy’s confidence in the current price is strong enough to justify higher funding costs.
$370 million is not a small amount. They could have waited for a better time or cheaper financing. But they didn’t.
/ Detail Three: Purchase Price Higher Than Average but Lower Than May
This purchase’s average price was $80,318.
In May, it was about $80,340.
About $22 cheaper than May.
More subtle is the change in overall holding average price: as of May 10, the average holding price was about $75,540. After this purchase, the overall average holding price dropped to $75,412.
Buying at a higher price actually lowered the overall average?
Because the May purchase was larger—$2 billion bought 24,869 BTC. Larger volume has a bigger impact on average price. This $370 million purchase is relatively small for the year.
What does this indicate?
Strategy is not passively "dollar-cost averaging." They are actively timing.
Buying at $80,318, higher than the overall average of $75,412, shows management has a clear margin of safety judgment at the current price.
They are not "buying blindly." They are "calculating their buys."
/ Understanding these three details, you realize—
This is not a simple purchase.
It is a carefully calculated strategic deployment.
Previewing the market 24 hours in advance → buying even with more expensive financing → adding to positions despite price being above the overall average.
Every step tells the market one thing:
Strategy’s confidence in Bitcoin has not wavered despite the ten-week gap.
On the contrary—they are continuing the five-year strategy with more caution and precise timing.
Many saw Strategy not buying for ten weeks and said "Saylor chickened out" or "Strategy is liquidating."
When Bitcoin dropped to $58,500 in June, Strategy was forced to sell to meet financial obligations, selling about $544 million in three tranches over the summer. The market mocked: "See, the 'never sell' claim is a lie."
Then?
On August 21, Bitcoin surged over 23% in one day, returning near $79,000. Strategy’s holdings’ market value again exceeded cost.
On August 31, they came back.
Forced to sell when others panicked, decisive buying when others hesitated.
This is not "chickening out." This is a whale holding 845,050 BTC with a total cost of $63.73 billion managing its balance sheet.
True long-termism is not about never selling. It’s about not giving up at the wrong time.
Someone asked me: "Isn’t $80,318 expensive to buy?"
I said: "You think it’s expensive because you look at the price. Saylor looks at the position."
Five years ago when he bought BTC, everyone said it was expensive.
Looking back now?
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 On August 31, Strategy submitted an 8-K filing to the SEC — last week (August 24 to 30), it spent $369.7 million to buy 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of about $80,318.
As of August 30, the company’s total holdings reached 845,050 bitcoins, with a total cost of about $63.73 billion and an average cost of $75,412.
After the news was released, MSTR closed up 4.42% on Monday at $132.94.
But that’s not the main point.
The key point is — this is Strategy’s first purchase in over two months. The previous one was from June 15 to 21, buying only 520 coins.
From the frenzy buying at the start of the year to near halt in June, then restarting at the end of August — behind this lies a complete "opportunistic allocation" logic.
📊 2026 Accumulation Timeline: One chart to understand the rhythm changes
January: Bought about $2.16 billion worth of BTC at an average price of about $95,284.
April: Purchased 34,164 BTC for about $2 billion — the largest single purchase of the year.
May 11-17: Bought 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion, averaging about $80,985 per coin.
June 15-21: Bought only 520 BTC — almost symbolic.
July: No accumulation.
August 24-30: Bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, averaging $80,318.
In plain language:
From the start of the year to May — high frequency and large amounts, almost weekly buying.
June to July — almost stopped. 520 coins in June, zero in July.
End of August — volume restart. 4,603 coins, not as wild as early in the year, but the signal is far more important than the number itself.
🤔 Why this change?
First, the financing model changed.
In 2024, Strategy relied on zero-coupon convertible bonds — borrowing money without interest amid abundant market liquidity.
In 2026, that path is no longer viable. Financing shifted to high-cost preferred shares plus dilutive ATM stock issuance.
What does this mean? Borrowing became more expensive, and issuing stock dilutes existing shareholders. Strategy can no longer buy recklessly like in 2024 without worsening the bitcoin per share ratio.
Second, they are waiting on price.
JPMorgan analysis points out that Strategy’s large purchases occurred when BTC was below its average cost — reflecting an "opportunistic" allocation strategy.
This time, the $80,318 purchase price is above the company’s overall average cost of $75,412.
What does this imply?
Management believes the current price level has a clear margin of safety — it’s not passive dollar-cost averaging, but an active judgment.
Third, they are waiting for the book to turn positive.
In late August, BTC rebounded near $80,000, and the book value of Strategy’s over 840,000 BTC holdings turned positive for the first time.
Only with unrealized gains can they confidently continue to add positions. This is not faith, it’s financial discipline.
💊 The real meaning of $369.7 million
$369.7 million — in Strategy’s 2026 accumulation profile, this number is relatively low for the year.
Compared to $2.16 billion in January, it’s a fraction.
Compared to $2 billion in April, it’s a fraction.
Compared to $2 billion in May, still a fraction.
But compared to 520 coins in June — the attitude has clearly turned positive.
What does this show? The company is preserving ammunition. $369.7 million doesn’t mean they’re out of money, but they don’t want to spend it all at once.
They are waiting for lower prices or better financing windows.
This is a company that has learned "timing."
Strategy in 2026 is no longer the 2021 frenzy machine that bought regardless of price.
It has become a careful, opportunistic buyer who acts only when the timing is right.
January: dared to buy $2.1 billion at $95,000.
June: only 520 coins at $60,000.
August: $369.7 million at $80,000.
Same company, same CEO, completely different operational logic.
Why?
Because the market changed. Financing costs changed. Shareholder expectations changed.
Even the most steadfast bitcoin bulls are learning to "respect the price."
Some say: "$369.7 million is too little, is Strategy failing?"
Wrong. $369.7 million is not the end, it’s the start of a new round of positioning.
From $2 billion to 520 coins to $369.7 million — this accumulation profile sketches not retreat, but a mature company’s true understanding of "opportunity."
Anyone can go all in in a bull market.
Precise timing in a volatile market is the real skill.
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 🚨 BTC MAY BE DUE FOR A DEEPER PULLBACK
Bitcoin just ripped from $62.5K to $81.5K in a short period. After a move that aggressive, a deeper correction wouldn’t surprise me.
BTC has already been rejected from the highs and is now hovering around $78K. My first downside target is $76K. If that level breaks, I’m watching $72K–$70K next.
I opened a short around $77,960, with the position currently around $8,550.
For now, my thesis is simple: move. #DailyOrbit The Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin's 26% gain may face a test. Bitcoin has risen about 26% in the past month, with one key underlying logic being the market's bet on a weaker dollar. However, recent signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh may pour cold water on this rally.
Walsh believes the era of "cheap money" is coming to an end. With accelerating economic growth and continued capital attraction in fields like artificial intelligence, rising demand for funds may keep interest rates high rather than continuing to decline.
The market has already started to react. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.26%, approaching a nearly 19-year high, and the 10-year yield also climbed to 4.76%. High interest rates mean holding cash and bonds can yield higher returns, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin, which does not generate interest.
Therefore, what the market really needs to be cautious about in September may not be short-term dollar fluctuations, but whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a high interest rate environment. If rate expectations continue to rise, Bitcoin's previous 26% gain may face greater downward pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 Strategy bought 4,603 Bitcoin for 370 million USD, the first BTC purchase since June 22 last year 🚨
Strategy purchased 4,603 BTC for 369.7 million USD, with an average price of 80,318 USD per Bitcoin. The company also increased its USD cash by 30 million USD and repurchased 151.8 million USD worth of STRC shares.
As of August 30, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC with a total purchase value of 63.73 billion USD (average price 75,412 USD/BTC), along with 6.71 billion USD in cash assets (USD). 💵
$BTC