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Is a major crash coming?
Honestly, this question is more worth discussing now than "when will the rebound happen."
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000, with 80,000 acting like a ceiling; several attempts to break above it have failed. On the other hand, U.S. Treasuries are already signaling risk assets—10-year Treasury yields have climbed to around 4.81%, nearly a three-year high. Expectations for a rate cut in September have been crushed, and some are even starting to bet on a hawkish turn.
What’s even more troubling is the oil price.
With tensions escalating between the U.S. and Iran, Brent crude oil has surged above $94. When oil prices spike, inflation expectations rise again, leaving less room for rate cuts. It’s no coincidence that BTC, ETH, and altcoins have all weakened recently.
But it’s still too early to shout "crash now."
For now, BTC hasn’t shown extreme signals of a leveraged liquidation cascade; it’s more about sustained macro tightening and risk appetite being drained bit by bit. The real scenario to watch out for is this: if 77,000 breaks and Treasury yields keep rising, then we might see a spiral of "decline → liquidation cascade → further decline."
So what you should focus on next isn’t some big bearish candle, but whether liquidity suddenly tightens.
If 80,000 can’t be held and 77,000 is lost again, the risk becomes very real.
If even 75,000 can’t hold, then talking about a "major crash" won’t just be scaring yourself.
#Last data set before FOMC: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices surge #BTC pulls back from highs, gold correlation testedCoinbase surged 8% pre-market, crypto stocks collectively rally, how much is one sentence from Trump worth?
At a Trump meeting, Coinbase jumped 8% pre-market directly; with political buff support, crypto stocks are even stronger than the coins themselves.
Yesterday's market move was interesting: BTC surged from 68,000 to 81,000, triggering a record $2.7 billion short squeeze (the largest single-day scale). Coinbase took advantage and rose 7.6% to 8% pre-market, Strategy (MicroStrategy) +7.8%, Circle +5.6%, Robinhood +5.3%, MARA +4.4%, Galaxy +4%, Riot +3.5%, Hut8 +2.9%. The logic is simple: Trump called for the CLARITY Act + Treasury's $4 billion bond buyback support + short squeeze, these three forces combined, making crypto stocks more elastic than spot coins.
But looking calmly, $xCOIN's rise is largely "policy expectation" priced in; the bill votes on September 15, and if it doesn't pass, the positive effect is fully realized. My trading approach: crypto stocks' volatility is twice that of spot coins, suitable for event-driven position management, but don't get attached. Wait for the September 15 vote result to land; that will be the real point of divergence in value. 🚨The September rate hike expectations suddenly cooled down. (Here comes the hand-tracked September rate hike probability monitor) #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
The latest intraday pricing shows that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to about 59%, a decrease of about 11 percentage points in one day, triggering an alert.
This time, the market hasn't suddenly turned dovish; it's mainly due to two things. First, the US ADP private employment in August increased by only 38,000, below expectations, indicating that companies are indeed slowing down hiring. Second, New York Fed President John Williams said that although inflation is still high, there is no need to rush to raise rates now; future moves will depend on the data.
After the news, US Treasury yields and the dollar both fell, and the market quickly pulled back some hawkish bets. Recently, this probability line has been quite volatile: 35% → 57% → 64% → nearly 70% → about 59%. A few days ago, the market was trading as if the rate hike was a done deal; now it has returned to the 50-60% range.
The real direction will be decided by the nonfarm payrolls. If employment remains weak, the rate hike probability might drop to around 50% or even 40%; if nonfarm payrolls strengthen again, the 60%-70% rate hike bets could return at any time.
So don't rush to bet on the 59% direction; this is just intraday pricing. The real showdown will come after the nonfarm payrolls are released.
Do you think the rate hike expectations will continue to cool down or heat up again? 📰 【BonkGuy's holdings have increased by over $9.8 million in the past month, with PONS, USELESS, and MARSCOIN contributing the main unrealized gains.】
According to BlockBeats, on September 3rd, Lookonchain monitoring showed that trader BonkGuy (Unipcs) saw his portfolio value grow by more than $9.8 million over the past month. Currently, his holdings include unrealized gains of about $5.63 million in PONS, $1.57 million in USELESS, and $1.43 million in MarsCoin. He was rated by Fomo as the top trader on the platform.
The Meme sector is increasingly resembling a momentum play. BonkGuy’s most impressive move wasn’t a single coin doubling, but rather his precise position structure. Small meme coins like PONS and USELESS essentially represent a resonance of liquidity premium plus narrative fermentation. Being able to hold onto unrealized gains for a month indicates he has a more advanced logical framework when selecting coins, not just chasing hot spots by looking at K-lines. However, now that Fomo has ranked him first, it serves as a warning signal: when top traders are collectively watched, strategy decay and smarter opponents often happen simultaneously. Are there any overlooked projects in the same sector with cold, new position structures and quietly forming community consensus? Discuss in the comments and see if you’ve recently found any similar early-stage players on-chain.👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $CP If you missed the $UNI move, $ARB may be worth keeping on the radar. 👀 Robinhood Chain’s ecosystem activity has been gaining attention, with $TVL reportedly around $735M and 24-hour DEX volume near $1.57B. The interesting part is the potential value flow to Arbitrum: 💰 10% of Robinhood Chain’s protocol net revenue could go to ARB-related governance/funding 8% → DAO 2% → Developer Fund However, there’s an important distinction: ARB is not the gas token for these transactions, and transaction acThree mountains pressing down together, why hasn't Bitcoin fallen?
Oil prices are close to $96, U.S. Treasury yields are surging, and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are also rising.
Based on past experience, when these three factors come together, risk assets usually suffer. Stocks fell first, and Bitcoin retreated from around $80,000 to about $77,000.
But here's the problem: it hasn't crashed.
In previous years, in this kind of situation, the crypto market would most likely have been all red by now. Although BTC is struggling, there are still buyers. ETF funds are flowing back in, and listed companies like Strategy are still buying with real money.
I think this is the most interesting part right now.
Outside, the three mountains are pressing down, but inside, a group of big funds are supporting it from below. So the market is stuck here: plenty of bad news, but the price doesn't fall much; plenty of good news, but it can't break through upwards.
At times like this, the most tormenting thing isn't a crash, but that you have no idea from which side the next punch will come.
If oil prices keep rising and rate hike expectations continue to increase, how much longer can Bitcoin hold on? Conversely, if these pressures ease a bit, will those who have been buying at the bottom push the price back up to $80,000?
Right now, this market looks like two groups playing tug-of-war.
The rope hasn't broken yet; the key is who lets go first. Retail investors dream, platforms harvest, how much longer can the Robinhood Chain US stock short squeeze drama last?
Recently, Robinhood Chain triggered FOMO due to stock Meme coin speculation, but after community doubts about FAMI and JINQIAN quick pump-and-dump, their market caps plummeted, and I also got stuck with zeroed assets.
Data shows that only 40% of traders profited in the past 30 days, 94% of addresses on the FOMO App lost money, average transaction fees soared 64 times to $0.33, while the platform's cumulative fee income reached $18.6 million.
This farce is narrative arbitrage and liquidity harvesting; the so-called short squeeze logic is completely untenable. FAMI has neither real asset backing nor redemption channels; it’s purely a traditional US stock penny stock pump scheme repackaged on-chain to scam liquidity.
Looking clearly at this market, analysis has two dimensions:
The platform is the biggest winner.
With a 97% L2 gross margin, players suffer heavy losses trying repeatedly in deep waters, while the platform collects $18.6 million in fees behind the scenes, a literal on-chain casino rake machine.
The narrative backfires directly.
They intended to play the compliant RWA card to attract traditional funds, but what got hot was a wild market. High gas fees block genuine retail investors at the door, completely betraying the original intention.
The next direction:
Retail investors who have suffered this silent loss will soon become immune to US stock short squeeze stories. Once the profit effect completely disappears, the hot money outflow will be faster than expected.
What do you think of this coin-stock gameplay? Do you think new tricks can still be invented later? The recent rise was too strong, and currently it is in a digestion phase. The long-term bullish trend has not changed. ● Macro variables: Significant linkage with traditional financial markets. Recent geopolitical situations (such as military actions in the Strait of Hormuz) have driven up crude oil prices and pushed US Treasury yields higher (the 10-year yield rose above 4.8%), with the US dollar index approaching the 100 mark. In addition, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have warmed up, and the non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday will be a key variable determining the market direction in September.
Seasonal pattern: Historically, September has been a relatively weak month for Bitcoin (with an average decline of about -2.95% since 2013). However, given the upward momentum in August, the market's long-term bullish expectations remain unchanged, and it is expected that after a pullback within the month, the long-term cycle will still maintain an upward trend.
In the short term, BTC is very likely to continue a volatile consolidation pattern. It is recommended to patiently wait for an effective breakout or breakdown signal from the range. Close attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot ETF funds, the release of Friday's non-farm payroll data, and whether the price can digest profit-taking without relying on leverage. These will be the core indicators to confirm the next round of a one-sided direction. $BTC $ETH Gold recovered to around $4,400, while Bitcoin remained sideways around $77K. Earlier, gold had retreated to $4,300, and BTC briefly dropped to $76K amid market pressure from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Typically, conflicts boost safe-haven demand. However, gold is currently influenced by two opposing forces: 🟢 Geopolitical risk: supports safe-haven demand. 🔴 Expectations of high interest rates: pressure gold as it is a non-yielding asset. Notably, conflicts can push up oil prices and inflation Japanese long-term bond yields have risen to a high level, and the most painful part is that the illusion of the "low interest rate era" has shattered a bit more.
In the past, many people were used to treating Japan as a low-cost global capital backdrop: cheap yen, low interest rates, and capital flowing freely. Now, with long-term rates continuously rising, the impact is not only domestic to Japan; it will change global arbitrage trading, insurance capital allocation, and even the relative attractiveness of US Treasuries and gold.
I think the market tends to underestimate these slow variables. Unlike tech stock earnings reports that give answers in a day, this will gradually raise global capital costs.
If Japan is no longer the stable low-interest-rate anchor, many assets that previously enjoyed a comfortable valuation zone will need to be recalculated.
#日本长债收益率升至高位 14U Zero-Threshold Real Trading Challenge in the Crypto Circle | Witness a Complete New Coin Pulse from Frenzy to Crash
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is only a personal real trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Newly issued small-cap coins are highly controlled and carry huge liquidity risks; extreme surges and crashes are very common.
1. Overall Market Structure
Yesterday, when CP (Cluster Protocol) suddenly appeared, everyone saw it surge from 0.03 straight to 0.108, a peak 217% explosive rise myth, instantly shooting to 4th place on the exchange.
At that time, the entire network was discussing this new coin, with a beautiful narrative of Base+AI, dazzling K-lines with multiple times gains, and voices everywhere about wealth opportunities.
I entered with the idea of speculating on the pulse market, personally witnessing the frenzy created by speculative capital driving the price up, and also witnessing a rapid retreat.
2. The Complete Hype Cycle of CP, a Full Cycle in One Day
Many people think that after a new coin surges, there will be a second wave of rally and sustained heat.
In fact, for many one-day coins, the moment the historical high is reached is the end of the market.
This coin did not have a long accumulation, shakeout, or rally process:
- Opening: Extremely small circulating supply, a small amount of capital sweeps all sell orders, violently pushing the price up;
- Surge: Price quickly pulled to 0.108, achieving extreme gains, hitting the hot list, attracting the entire market's attention;
- Traffic Attraction: Multiple times K-line spreads wildly, fear of missing out begins to spread, retail investors start entering to catch the top; $BTC
Reviewing this round of Bitcoin's movement, my plan was very clear: take profit on short positions at 76150, wait for the price to rebound about 1000 points, then re-enter with another short.
But the market deviated by 200 points, the lowest only hit 76380 before it was pulled up directly, so there was no chance to take profit at 76150. Since I didn't fully take profit on the first position, I simply held on without moving.
The subsequent movement basically confirmed my judgment — the price indeed rebounded over a thousand points, now the rebound momentum is exhausted, the bears are regaining strength, and the market is starting to move down again.
The next rhythm is very clear to me: the price will first test the support around 75500. But honestly, I think this level probably won't hold; at best, it will be a brief pause, it's hard to truly stop the downtrend. Once 75500 is broken, the downside will open further, with the next target directly at 74200.
Why am I so pessimistic about this rebound?
It's simple, this rise is essentially a recovery during a downtrend, not a bullish reversal. During the rebound, there was no significant influx of new funds going long; more so, positions previously trapped took the opportunity to exit and run. After these positions exit, selling pressure naturally resurfaces, and the market is still dominated by bears.
For those already holding short positions, just keep holding. Focus on the 75500 level to see how strong the support is. For those not yet in, you can follow the trend and enter short positions. Don't try to bottom-fish for a rebound now; the cost-effectiveness is low and it's easy to get trapped halfway down.
Of course, trading shouldn't be stubborn. If the price pulls back to the rebound high or even breaks upward strongly, that means my judgment was wrong. Short positions should be closed to preserve capital. But from the current market situation, the probability of such a strong reversal is low.
First watch the test of 75500 support, predict it won't hold, then continue to look toward 74200. Just follow the bear trend to operate.The probability of a rate hike has risen to 68%🔥 Don't blindly bet against it!
Many beginners immediately conclude that risk assets will plummet and the US dollar will continue to strengthen when they see the rate hike expectations rise.
In fact, the market doesn't follow such a simple formula.
68% is just a market forecast derived from futures calculations, a dynamic expectation, not a policy that has already been implemented.
More important than fixating on this number is to understand the driving forces behind it. Is it a rebound in inflation or particularly strong employment data? Different causes lead to completely different subsequent market trends.
✅ Scenario 1: Various economic data remain hot, and a consensus forms around long-term high interest rates. The US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise. BTC and tech growth stocks come under pressure and trend downward with volatility. Do not rush to bottom-fish at this time.
✅ Scenario 2: The rate hike expectation is only a short-term spike, and the market has fully priced in the negative news. Most sellable chips have basically exited. Once the economy weakens afterward, expectations cool rapidly. Safe-haven funds reverse positions, and risk assets will see a recovery rebound.
When the market's negative expectations are wildly speculated on by everyone, the risk has often already been mostly released.
A single piece of news cannot reverse the medium- to long-term market trend.
Stay calm, stick to your trading system, and don't let market sentiment lead you by the nose. Geopolitical gunfire and the crypto market resonance play out again. The US military launched airstrikes on targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, followed by a harsher warning from Trump, instantly freezing risk sentiment. Bitcoin quickly slid from about $79,000, hitting an intraday low near $76,762; Ethereum simultaneously broke below the $2,400 mark, with market rumors of a long ETH position worth up to $100 million hanging on the edge of liquidation, intensifying the bearish atmosphere.
Notably, traditional safe-haven assets and crypto assets weakened simultaneously, while oil prices surged against the trend, with WTI soaring 5.2% to $90.22 and Brent crude climbing 4.6% to $94.65. This combination of "rising inflation expectations + tightening liquidity" imposes a double suppression on risk assets.
In the short term, geopolitical events dominate the market, and increased volatility is the norm. If the situation escalates further, the crypto market may face deeper liquidity challenges. Whether $ETH and $BTC support levels hold depends on subsequent news developments rather than purely technical patterns.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; please manage your positions rationally and pay attention to risks. Ethereum holders are tormented to the point of doubting life: Solana surpasses Ethereum by 1 billion in single-day DEX volume, where is the problem?
Friends holding Ethereum have probably been tormented and frustrated these past few months.
Whenever the market slightly rebounds, Solana surges like it's on steroids, while Ethereum lags weakly behind, with its exchange rate steadily declining. After looking at the latest on-chain data from DefiLlama, it feels even more painful.
In the past 24 hours, Solana's total DEX trading volume reached $2.327 billion, while Ethereum mainnet only had $1.318 billion, falling behind by a full 1 billion in a single day; over the last 30 days, Solana's DEX volume totaled $64 billion, nearly doubling Ethereum's $35.1 billion. In the past 30 days, Solana accumulated $334 million in fees, steadily surpassing Ethereum's $287 million.
Trading volume surpassed, fees surpassed, where exactly did Ethereum go wrong?
In the last bull market, Ethereum's most attractive feature was the buyback deflation driven by Gas fees. But after fully pushing L2, all the fun applications and trades migrated to Base and Arbitrum, with mainnet Gas fees staying below 1 Gwei for years, and Blob being so cheap it's basically free. After the burn stopped, ETH completely became an asset with annual inflation. It gave the cheapness to L2 but left the inflation to the token holders.
In contrast, Solana locks liquidity, high-frequency arbitrage, and hot money all in the same big pool. Retail investors vote with their feet, going wherever profits are faster and slippage is smaller.What the market is really watching now is not whether the US stock market will rise today, but whether the Federal Reserve will put "rate hikes" back on the table.
After Waller spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 28, market expectations for a rate hike in September clearly heated up.
This change is very important.
Because once the market starts repricing rate hikes, it affects not just a single stock, but the entire asset chain:
US Treasury yields will move first,
The US dollar will react accordingly,
Gold, BTC, tech stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares will all be revalued by capital.
Key dates to watch closely next:
September 4, US August nonfarm payrolls.
If employment remains strong, it means the economy can still withstand high interest rates, and the market will continue to worry about the Fed's hawkish bias.
September 11, US August CPI and core CPI.
This is the most critical inflation check. If inflation remains sticky, expectations for rate cuts will be further suppressed.
September 17, FOMC rate decision, press conference, and economic forecast.
What really determines market sentiment is often not whether rates are raised or not, but the dot plot and what Powell says.
So during this period, don't just watch the candlestick charts.
Many times, price fluctuations are just on the surface; behind them, interest rate expectations are being rearranged.
My understanding is simple:
If employment is strong and inflation is sticky, the Fed has no reason to ease too quickly;
If data starts to weaken, the market will trade rate cuts again.
The biggest variable in September is not the rise or fall on a certain day, but whether the market bets on "economic resilience" or "policy shift."
The short term will be noisy, but the real focus should be on the data. Looking at the earnings reports of Broadcom and Snowflake together, I am actually more focused on one change.
The AI story is still ongoing.
But the market has started to be picky.
Broadcom's Q3 results exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue reaching $16.7 billion.
However, the Q4 revenue guidance was slightly below market expectations, causing the stock to drop more than 6% after hours.
This is very interesting.
It's not that AI demand is gone.
Rather, the market is starting to ask:
You say AI is great, but how much can it actually deliver?
Looking at Snowflake.
Product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increased to 9,100, and the full-year guidance was raised, causing the stock to surge 21% after hours.
One stock was hammered.
One soared.
The difference may not be about who tells a better story.
But rather:
Whose AI story is starting to turn into numbers in the earnings report.
Also consider Dell's raised AI server revenue expectations; AI demand is indeed spreading downstream.
Chips, servers, network equipment, data cloud, software.
The chain is getting longer.
But the market's tolerance for error is getting lower.
In the past, telling a good story could earn a valuation first.
Now it's different.
Revenue, profit, orders—all must be proven one by one.
So what’s really worth watching next is not who is still talking about AI.
But:
Who can continue to turn AI into cold, hard cash?
$BTC $SNDK If a bull market also has a mid-season break, then now might be the time for institutions to quietly switch positions. Have you noticed that recent capital flows and retail investor sentiment are completely different? Staring at the data from the past few days, I actually feel a bit conflicted. Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million, and IBIT alone bore 201 million yuan in selling pressure, losing blood for two consecutive days. It sounds scary at first glance, right? But then you look back, ETH ETFs have quietly absorbed for 12 consecutive days, with a net inflow of 522 million this week; SOL is also busy, with funds flowing in for 10 consecutive days, and Bitwise is holding nearly $1 billion in SOL. Not to mention ZEC was directly listed on the NYSE, and HYPE was added to Hashdex's ETF index, with a weight of 3.4%. This scene reminds me of an old saying: the money hasn't left, it's just changed tables. If you look only at BTC, it really does seem like it's catching its breath. The market is repricing rate hikes, and with geopolitical shadows, Bitcoin's short-term pressure is being suppressed. But I don't see this as a signal of retreat; it's more like a time of digestion. After all, ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, which have happened in the past few months, often followed by consolidation rather than crashes. What really caught my attention was another line—ETH was increased by BitMine to 5.9 million coins, accounting for 4.9% of circulating supply. This lock-up ratio shows institutions are not here to trade short-term but to stockpile. The SOL side is even more interesting. ETF continuous accumulation is just superficial; the real highlight is the network activity hitting a record high. Capital is willingBroadcom and Snowflake reported on the same day, accelerating the transmission along the AI chain.
Broadcom's Q3 revenue and earnings both exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue reaching $16.7 billion. Custom chips and networking businesses continue to benefit. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below forecasts, with after-hours stock price initially dropping over 6% before narrowing the decline. AI demand remains, but the market's expectations for the speed of performance delivery are increasing. Broadcom's network chips are core to AI data center interconnects; the slightly lower guidance indicates expectations have outpaced fundamentals.
Snowflake is on a different track. Q2 product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, with AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts rising to 9,100. The company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with after-hours shares up over 21%. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software applications. Snowflake confirms that AI-driven data consumption is accelerating, not just compute power procurement.
Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, with compute infrastructure demand continuing to grow. The AI chain transmission from chips to servers to networks to data clouds is happening, but the pace varies at each stage.
#BTC #ETH #$SOL #London Stock Exchange and Payward plan to launch tokenization of UK stocks
The leader has something to say
The LSE's move to tokenize UK stocks has been previously broken down; today let's discuss it from a different angle. It takes a completely different path from Robinhood Chain.
Robinhood relies on Meme-driven market sentiment to drive on-chain trading, with DEX daily volume reaching 1.3 billion, but once the Meme hype fades, whether the volume can be sustained is uncertain.
LSE is taking a compliance route led by the exchange. All FTSE 100 index constituent stocks will be tokenized on-chain, with the first batch launching in the coming weeks and trading on LSE24 by 2027. Unlike Robinhood's coin-stock paired Meme approach, LSE is backed by real demand for stock tokenization.
Both routes are being pushed simultaneously. Robinhood handles traffic, LSE builds the infrastructure. One is bottom-up, the other top-down. Whoever succeeds first will gain pricing power in the RWA (Real World Asset) sector.
This is positive in the long term, but implementation will take time, so the short-term impact on the market is limited.
Continue holding short positions on ZEC, targeting 600 to 650. Stay out of BTC positions and wait for a pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders on your trades. Good luck.A bustling $1.89 billion, ultimately credited to ARB
Robinhood Chain has really been stealing the spotlight these past couple of days, with 24-hour DEX trading volume hitting $1.89 billion and chain revenue reaching $3.38 million.
But here’s the interesting part.
On the surface, it looks like Robinhood Chain is having a party, but digging one layer deeper, it starts to connect with ARB. Robinhood Chain uses the Arbitrum tech stack, and part of the chain’s revenue flows back to the Arbitrum ecosystem through a permission mechanism.
So this time, I’m actually starting to add ARB to my watchlist.
Not because seeing $1.89 billion makes me hype; Meme, new chain hype, and subsidies can all temporarily inflate the numbers. What I care more about is that Arbitrum has finally shown a relatively straightforward case of revenue capture.
When talking about ARB before, I often thought: the technology, ecosystem, and TVL wouldn’t be small.
Now at least this accounting can start to be done.
Others use your technology; the more transactions, the more chances you have to collect revenue.
Of course, whether $1.89 billion can be sustained and whether RWA demand can truly stick around remains to be seen.
But if this revenue logic keeps running, I think ARB is no longer just the "Ethereum Layer 2 leader" story.
It’s moving from talking about technology to talking about cash flow.
That’s why I’m willing to add it to my watchlist.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $ARB $HOOD Recently, this market is somewhat worth observing.
BTC surged strongly in August, and ETFs also saw one of the stronger capital inflows this year, but after entering September, ETFs suddenly turned to outflows.
This indicates that the market is still in a tug of war.
So if CORE suddenly rallies later, I would first check if it’s moving along with the overall market, and then see if its own trading volume has truly picked up.
If it’s just BTC pulling back a bit and CORE following along slightly, I don’t think there’s much to get excited about. But if BTC stabilizes, ETFs resume steady inflows, and CORE starts to form its own structure again, then that would be genuinely interesting.On September 3rd, Standard Chartered, a top global bank, officially announced the launch of spot trading for BTC and ETH for institutional clients in the UAE.
Why is this a big deal? Standard Chartered is not some fly-by-night platform; it is a globally systemically important bank. Imagine those Middle Eastern institutions dressed in white robes, wealthy beyond measure, now able to place orders to buy BTC directly from their existing forex trading interface. This is no longer just breaking into the crypto space; it’s like moving cryptocurrency directly into the presidential suite of traditional finance.
Standard Chartered’s move is steady and strategic. In September 2024, they secured digital asset custody (helping institutions store coins), in July 2025 they piloted spot trading in the UK, and now they have made a major move in the UAE.
1. Institutional clients don’t need to install new software; they can buy and sell BTC directly through their existing forex (FX) channels. To them, buying BTC is as routine as buying Japanese yen or British pounds.
2. Many institutions want to buy crypto but fear exchanges running away with funds. Now, with a century-old institution like Standard Chartered stepping up to say, “I will custody, I will facilitate,” it’s basically handing institutions a ticket to enter the market.
* The UAE is now the global crypto hub. Standard Chartered’s move means huge amounts of petrodollars have a compliant and convenient channel to flow into BTC and ETH. This is not a small-scale operation of a few million; it’s a long-term increment on the scale of tens of billions.
* With Standard Chartered leading, big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs face increased pressure in the Gulf region. To compete for clients, everyone will accelerate their follow-up. Regulatory red lights are turning on one after anotherOne of the largest holders of $HYPE, the veteran crypto fund Multicoin Capital, has made a move again. Arkham on-chain data shows that in the past few hours, the fund has sold about 10% more of its HYPE position, reducing its holdings by nearly three-quarters from the peak. It currently still holds about $90.5 million, making it the largest asset on its books.
The sell-off did not crush the price. $HYPE is hovering around $82 at the moment, down only about 1% in 24 hours. On one side, early large holders continue to cash out, while on the other, the Hashdex US-listed crypto index ETF included HYPE as the ninth largest component and fifth largest holding on September 1, providing ongoing passive buying support.
With selling and passive buying happening simultaneously, the holding structure of HYPE is shifting from concentrated to more distributed. $HYPE $SOL is still struggling around the $100 mark, and this scene is somewhat bittersweet.
Currently priced near $100.3, bulls are repeatedly testing the $100 whole number barrier but just can't break through that door.
But if you're bearish on SOL because of this, I advise you to first check the September calendar. The Transaction V1 upgrade is coming on September 9th, a major update in SOL's history with potential improvements in performance and fee structure. Event-driven markets often start running one to two weeks before the upgrade, so now is the window.
Of course, the downside is obvious: in September, over $60 million worth of TRUMP tokens will be unlocked, the top meme bomb in the Solana ecosystem, creating significant selling pressure. On one side is the sweet promise of a technical upgrade, on the other the risk of token unlocking — SOL is oscillating amid this tug of war.
My judgment: the $100 level is a triple support zone combining a round number, a psychological barrier, and a previous dense trading area. It's hard to break below and not easy to stand above. A relatively comfortable short-term strategy is to sell high and buy low between $99 and $105, with a stop loss if it falls below $97. For those aiming to profit from the upgrade rally, be sure to take profits before September 9th and don't mistake the expected rally for a post-upgrade drop. As usual, manage your position size carefully. Bought some $ARB at a high price, mainly because Robinhood chain today for the first time returned revenue back to the Arbitrum ecosystem.
Robinhood is an Ethereum L2 built on Arbitrum Orbit, and 10% of the protocol's net revenue is shared with Arbitrum.
Robinhood is so popular now, its revenue yesterday already exceeded $2 million. At this level, it can bring Arbitrum's protocol revenue to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Of course,such popularity can't last forever; it will fall back once it$BTC / $SOL | THE INSTITUTIONAL SHIFT IS GETTING CLEARER
Crypto adoption isn’t moving in just one direction.
Bitcoin continues to strengthen its position as a digital monetary asset and long-term store of value.
Solana is building a different case.
Its high-speed, low-cost network is positioning it as a high-performance financial and application layer for trading, payments, DeFi and on-chain activity.
BTC is focused on preserving value.
SOL#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #GoldETFAdds10Tons The Altcoin Selloff May Be Hiding a Bigger Rotation The first days of September have not been kind to leveraged altcoin traders. On September 2, roughly $337M in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for about $255M. More than 85,000 traders were affected. $BTC held relatively better than many higher-beta assets, while $ETH, $SOL and $XRP absorbed heavier pressure. That tells me this is not simply a broad risk-off move. It looks more like the market is reprBitcoin Has a Macro Problem. But the Market May Be Misreading It.
Bitcoin is back above $77,500 after buyers defended the $76,300–$76,400 area.
But the recovery is happening while the macro backdrop remains uncomfortable.
Brent crude is still around $95, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 4.8%, and markets are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
That combination normally creates pressure on risk assets.
Yet $BTC is holding.
That is the part I find more important than the short-term price move.
Bitcoin is currently trading like an asset caught between two forces: institutional demand on one side and tighter macro liquidity on the other.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101M in net inflows on September 2, reversing the previous session's $236M outflow. Meanwhile, spot $ETH, $SOL and $XRP ETFs recorded outflows.
My radar:
$BTC needs to defend the $76K region and eventually reclaim $78K with stronger spot confirmation.
$ETH remains weaker, so its relative strength against Bitcoin matters.
$SOL, $XRP and $BNB are my first altcoin gauges. If they begin outperforming alongside Bitcoin, risk appetite is broadening.
For Layer 1s, I am watching $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR for selective accumulation rather than broad speculative buying.
DeFi gives another signal through $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE.
For infrastructure and RWA, $LINK and $ONDO remain important because sustained institutional adoption needs functioning on-chain rails.
Higher-beta sectors such as $TAO, $RENDER and $FET will tell us whether traders are willing to move further out on the risk curve.
$ARB and $OP are also worth watching for signs that capital is returning to Layer 2 ecosystems.
The bigger signal is this:
$BTC is absorbing macro pressure better than expected.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Dumplings believe
The $BTC four-year cycle may be failing
Many people are still waiting for the fixed bull market after the halving
But Bitcoin may have already entered a new phase
On-chain analyst Willy Woo made a bold judgment
In the future, Bitcoin's market cycle may be extended from the traditional four years to six to eight years
The reason for $ETH is not that the halving has disappeared
But that the halving's impact on market supply is weakening
As Bitcoin circulation increases
The proportion of new supply to total supply has dropped from about 0.8% to 0.4%
Previously, halving could directly change market supply and demand
Now the new selling pressure caused by halving is difficult to be solely dominated by $XAUT for a complete bull and bear cycle
What really determines Bitcoin's direction may become global liquidity
Interest rate policies and traditional financial debt cycles
Bitcoin will not fail to rise in the future
But the bull market may no longer arrive on time
The four-year cycle is gradually fading
The six to eight-year macro financial cycle begins to take over the market
The next big market move is not just about the halving narrative
But also about patience and liquidity Tonight at 8:30 PM is the non-farm payrolls report, with the market consensus expecting an increase of 55,000 jobs. Yesterday's ADP report showed only 38,000, weaker than the expected 48,000, signaling a cooling in employment ahead of time.
Historically, when the ADP report is weak, there is about a 60% chance that the non-farm payrolls will also be weak, a 25% chance of a reversal to strength, and a 15% chance it will be near expectations. In other words, it is highly likely tonight will continue the weak employment narrative from the ADP report.
Three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls below 55,000 (60% probability)
Both ADP and non-farm payrolls weaken in sync, the market will price in an earlier window for rate cuts, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to decline, which is positive for risk assets.
But watch out for a trap: if the market has already priced in this bullish move during the day, the data release will be the realization of that good news, causing a spike and then a pullback. Only if prices have not already priced it in will there be sustained gains and true dominance by the bulls.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls above 55,000 (25% probability)
Weak ADP but strong non-farm payrolls—this kind of reversal is the most painful. The market will interpret it as official employment resilience exceeding expectations, delaying rate cut expectations and leaning hawkish.
The US dollar will rally, Bitcoin will quickly drop in the short term, breaking support with a spike down, triggering stop-losses and a sell-off among bulls. Volatility will be extreme, with contracts losing on both sides; in such a market, placing limit orders is safer than opening positions actively.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls between 45,000 and 65,000 (15% probability)
Data is neutral, neither weak enough to alarm the Fed nor strong enough to rule out rate cuts entirely. The market will lack clear direction, continuing to oscillate, waiting for next week's speech by Waller to provide new variables.#RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain’s volume keeps climbing, but I’m more interested in where the activity is actually coming from 👀 Dune shows around $1.89B in 24-hour DEX volume, while DeFiLlama puts daily chain revenue near $3.38M—higher than most major chains. Since it uses Arbitrum’s stack, the activity also generates licensing income for Arbitrum DAO. That makes the growth meaningful beyond Robinhood itself. Still, Meme tokens such as CashCat and Pons reportedly drive much of the volumRolling positions sounds scary, but to put it another way, it's just adding to positions with floating profits, which sounds much better. Adding to positions with floating profits is just a common technique in futures trading.
You don't need to maintain 5~10x leverage, just two to three times. The key is to keep the total position at two to three times by adding to floating profits. Playing Bitcoin this way is relatively safer. Rolling positions is only suitable in three situations:
1. Choosing a direction after a long-term sideways movement with new lows in volatility
2. Bottom fishing after a big drop following a strong rally in a bull market
3. Breaking through major weekly-level resistance/support levels
Only in these three cases is the chance of winning relatively high; all other opportunities should be abandoned. #TradingInsights#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
After being dormant for half a year, ARB suddenly surged: Robinhood made $3.38 million in a single day. Is this rebound reliable?
ARB, which has been criticized heavily while stuck at the bottom for over half a year, has recently rallied strongly thanks to ecosystem tailwinds, leading the gains among Ethereum Layer 2s.
The most direct fuel for this surge comes from RobinhoodChain. Dune data shows that RobinhoodChain's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours hit $1.89 billion, with on-chain revenue soaring to $3.38 million. As the underlying tech stack, ArbitrumDAO can directly extract real licensing fees from this. This visible external revenue stream precisely hits the market's pain points, directly triggering a short squeeze and capital scramble for ARB in the secondary market.
But before blindly chasing the rally, one must clearly see the fundamentals behind this surge.
Currently, the massive volume is mostly contributed by grassroots Meme hype from projects like CashCat and Pons. Sentiment and subsidies are fading rapidly, and licensing fees will shrink accordingly. From the market perspective, this looks more like an oversold rebound and a pulse-style short squeeze riding on positive news. To achieve a long-term reversal, relying solely on grassroots hype is far from enough; the key is whether real compliant RWA trading demand can be established going forward.
Looking at ARB finally turning green, do you think this wave can break through the heavy overhead resistance, or is it just another rebound to escape losses and run?#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin
Banking giants join forces to issue coins; is USDT's "moat" still wide?
On September 1, 21 financial giants including Goldman Sachs and Citibank jointly announced they will launch a USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027, gradually expanding to other G7 currencies such as the euro. The goal is clear: to enter the stablecoin market dominated by USDT ($183.3 billion) and USDC ($73.3 billion)—a market now exceeding $300 billion.
Why band together now? The core reason is that the rules have changed. The GENIUS Act, signed in 2025, will take effect in early 2027. Its stringent compliance requirements are a barrier for crypto-native companies but a moat for banks. More importantly, stablecoins are "absorbing capital" from the traditional banking system, so banks must take proactive action to keep on-chain payments within their own ecosystems. Going it alone has proven ineffective (Societe Generale's USD stablecoin circulation is only $12.5 million), making alliances inevitable.
What does this mean for USDT? It won't collapse in the short term, but the market will inevitably stratify. USDT's foundation lies in exchange depth, liquidity in emerging markets, and 24/7 trading habits—factors banks will find hard to challenge quickly. However, the compliance segment of the market will be divided among bank-issued coins, USDC, and USAT.
#Revolut launches euro stablecoin EURR
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 The current market is more like CAPITAL ROTATION rather than a complete exit from the market. ETF capital flows are sending an important signal: institutions have not completely abandoned crypto but are seeking better risk/return ratios among different assets. 🟠 $BTC → On August 31, about $217 million in funds was initially attracted but saw a net outflow of about $236 million in September. 🔵 $ETH → had received funding support for several consecutive days but recently began to take profits, indicating institutional demand remains but the pace is slowing. 🟣 $SOL → Capital performance remains worth watching. At the beginning of September, the spot SOL ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $925,000. Although small in scale, the direction remains positive. 🔥 More interesting is $HYPE. As BTC's risk-reward ratio begins to decline, some trading funds are moving along the risk curve toward higher-beta assets. This may mean: the money hasn't disappeared, it's just switching tracks. Another noteworthy new story is Robinhood Chain. The network's recent 24-hour app revenue once reached about $2.66 million, briefly surpassing Ethereum and Hyperliquid, indicating a rapid increase in on-chain transaction activity. Meanwhile, the macro market is facing a real stress test: 🇺🇸 the US August nonfarm payroll will be releasedGeopolitical conflicts continue
Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in August suddenly dropped to about 3 million barrels/day, the lowest on record since early 2017
Oil prices responded by rising, with $CL surpassing $95/barrel, and WTI crude around $91
Impact on $BTC
Oil prices drive inflation expectations, which in turn drive interest rate hike expectations. Oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar are all rising simultaneously, limiting Bitcoin's short-term upside
Geopolitical risks transmit through inflation and rate hike expectations, a more direct logic than "war-driven safe haven"‼️‼️**Key Focus:** Whether BTC can regain and hold above 78,000; U.S. nonfarm payroll data on September 4; Fed's September rate cut/hike expectations; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar; whether ETH and SOL can reclaim key positions; whether the strong momentum of DeFi tokens like UNI, AAVE, and CRV can continue; the privacy track of ZEC/XMR; HYPE unlocking about 9.92 million tokens on September 6. Core Analysis: The biggest change in today's market is not BTC suddenly strengthening, but a slight easing of macro pressure, with capital beginning to seek local offensive directions again. BTC previously briefly fell below 77,000, currently oscillating back near 77,000, but still noticeably distant from 80,000. In August, BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $3.52 billion, the strongest single-month performance since 2026, indicating institutional funds have not completely exited; however, ETF flows have shown clear fluctuations since September, meaning selling pressure above the price and macro variables still exist. (Altcoin Buzz) What really needs caution is tomorrow's U.S. nonfarm payrolls. August nonfarm data will be released on September 4, and the market is waiting for employment data to reconfirm the Fed's next move. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has clearly heated up, with some data showing probabilities above 60%; but today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell back from the previous day's high, indicating the market has not formed a one-sided rate hike expectation. (Google) Therefore, the current market is not simply an "end of the bull market," but more like a high-level trend entering a macro phase Bitcoin Is Getting the Bid. The Rest of Crypto Isn’t. The latest ETF data is showing a divergence that deserves attention. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101M in net inflows on September 2, while Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $48M in outflows. $BTC is holding around the $77K area after August’s 25% rally, but $ETH and several major altcoins remain under pressure. That changes how I read the current market. This does not look like institutions abandoning crypto. It looks more like capital becThe Bitcoin ecosystem has a pretty interesting characteristic:
There are a lot of old things.
Many assets haven't gone to zero and disappeared; they just quietly lie on the chain.
No one talks about them for half a year.
Then suddenly one day the trend reverses, and people start digging through their wallets again 😂
Sometimes it feels like the Bitcoin ecosystem is quite like a digital antique market.
Places like UniSat, besides trading, are occasionally used as a "warehouse rummage."
To see what you actually bought before.
Maybe one day the market will dig up some old thing again. $BTC ADP small nonfarm payroll data has been released, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, falling short of the market expectation of 47,000, marking the lowest level since January this year.
The root cause lies in sticky inflation.
Currently, the core PCE reading holds steady at 3.3%. Breaking down all 178 detailed price items, 54% of the sub-items have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, compared to only 47% a year ago. Simply put, although employment is gradually cooling, price increases are spreading to more categories. Persistent inflation remains a stubborn problem the Federal Reserve cannot shake off.
Reuters' market consensus expects an increase of 58,000; Deutsche Bank projects 65,000; Wells Fargo and NBC forecasts go as high as 80,000. The huge gap in expectations equals the source of market volatility. As long as the final actual result deviates from the expected range, the crypto market is very likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
Three scenarios are considered for the subsequent trend of Bitcoin:
1. Nonfarm data significantly exceeds expectations: September rate hike expectations further solidify, risk assets come under pressure, and $BTC may drop to 75,000 or even 72,000;
2. Final data falls near expectations: bulls and bears reach a stalemate, the market enters a range-bound phase, with no clear short-term trend;
3. Nonfarm additions are significantly below 58,000: rate hike expectations cool rapidly, BTC has a chance to rally and challenge the 80,000 level.
Final advice: Do not bet on the nonfarm data in advance. 21 Banks Are Building a Stablecoin. The Bigger Signal Is What They Want to Control.
21 major financial institutions, including $BAC, $C, $GS and $WFC, are preparing a joint U.S. dollar stablecoin targeted for the first half of 2027.
The headline is that banks are entering crypto.
The more important signal is which part of crypto they want to own.
Stablecoins are no longer just trading instruments.
They are becoming settlement infrastructure for payments, treasury operations and digital asset transactions.
That changes the competitive landscape.
$USDT and $USDC currently dominate dollar-based on-chain liquidity. A bank-backed alternative would put traditional financial institutions directly into the race for that liquidity.
My radar is watching what happens to the infrastructure underneath.
If banks issue their own digital dollars, those assets still need blockchains, custody, interoperability, liquidity and applications.
That creates a much bigger opportunity than simply another stablecoin.
$ETH could benefit from more institutional settlement activity.
$SOL and $BNB matter because high-throughput networks can compete for payments and financial applications.
$XRP is relevant to the cross-border settlement thesis, while $LINK becomes increasingly important if financial institutions need reliable on-chain data and interoperability.
Then there is the application layer.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE could become liquidity venues for a larger pool of tokenized dollars.
$ONDO sits directly inside the broader tokenization narrative.
And $ARB, $OP, $SUI, $APT and $AVAX are competing for the infrastructure layer where future financial activity could actually settle.
Even $BTC matters here.
Bitcoin does not need to become a payment rail for banks to benefit from this shift. If stablecoins expand the overall digital-asset economy, Bitcoin remains the primary reserve asset and liquidity benchmark inside that ecosystem.
But there is a catch.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Dell Technologies has once again captured Wall Street's attention after its stock surged 15.81%, becoming one of the strongest movers in the S&P 500. But behind this rally lies a much bigger story: AI demand is now starting to flow from chip makers to infrastructure suppliers who build the "backbone" of the AI economy. There is an important shift happening in the U.S. stock market. Previously, investors chased companies that create AI models and chips, kWhat truly matters now is not whether institutions are still buying crypto, but rather: where are they withdrawing their funds from, and where are they directing their money? 👀 Recently, ETF data has shown a very interesting change: 🟠 $BTC → saw a net outflow of about $237 million in early September, but on August 31, it recorded an inflow of about $217 million. Funds have not been continuously withdrawing unilaterally; instead, there is a clear high-frequency shift. 🔵 $ETH → institutional demand remains, but capital flows have become more cautious, and after continuous inflows, there has been a period of profit-taking. 🟣 $SOL → has instead become a highlight of recent capital rotation. On September 1, the US spot Solana ETF attracted about $102 million in funds, far above the previous trading day's roughly $925,000, indicating that some institutions are actively seeking opportunities beyond BTC. 🔥 This may not be Capital Outflow, but Capital Rotation. Funds are gradually spreading from relatively crowded core assets to higher beta and higher risk-reward ratios. Meanwhile, the macro environment remains unavoidable: 🇺🇸 the yield on the US 10-year Treasury remains high 🛢️, Brent crude oil remains around 📈 $95–$97, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have risen to about 66%, 💼 and the upcoming nonfarm payroll data may be the downsideBitcoin Is Getting the Bid. The Rest of Crypto Isn’t.
The latest ETF data is showing a divergence that deserves attention.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101M in net inflows on September 2, while Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $48M in outflows. $BTC is holding around the $77K area after August’s 25% rally, but $ETH and several major altcoins remain under pressure.
That changes how I read the current market.
This does not look like institutions abandoning crypto.
It looks more like capital becoming selective.
When investors want exposure to the asset class but reduce risk, $BTC is usually where liquidity concentrates first. The real test comes later: does that capital eventually rotate into higher-beta assets?
$SOL, $XRP and $BNB are therefore important to watch. Their relative strength can tell us whether the market is preparing for broader participation or simply defending Bitcoin.
My radar:
$BTC needs to hold its current structure while ETF demand remains positive.
$ETH needs to stop losing ground relative to Bitcoin.
For Layer 1s, I am watching $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR for signs that buyers are returning beyond the majors.
In DeFi, $AAVE, $UNI and $CRV can provide a better read on whether risk appetite is reaching on-chain markets.
RWA infrastructure is another key area. $LINK and $ONDO remain on my radar because institutional adoption ultimately needs reliable infrastructure, not just speculative liquidity.
AI assets such as $TAO, $RENDER and $FET remain higher-beta expressions of risk appetite, while $ARB and $OP could show whether capital is willing to move further down the crypto risk curve.
The bigger signal is the divergence itself.
August brought strong institutional demand and a major $BTC rally.
September is asking a different question:
Will institutional demand remain concentrated in Bitcoin, or will it eventually spread across the rest of the market?
If $BTC stabilizes while altcoins begin outperforming on rising volume, that would strengthen the case for rotation.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Today, SK Hynix closed at 1,596,000 KRW. It dipped a bit in the afternoon due to tariffs, and the current price is even lower than when the buyback started on August 20.
Moreover, since the announcement of the 40 trillion KRW buyback, the trading volume of the underlying stock has been shrinking. On August 20, the full-day volume was 5.453 million shares, but today it’s down to only 2.6285 million shares, a reduction of over 50%.
The fixed daily buyback of 650,000 shares has increased its share of the daily volume from 11.92% to 25.31%, accounting for one-quarter of the daily trading volume.
The price is still fluctuating continuously, and a direction might emerge soon. From a "carving a mark on the boat to find the sword" perspective, the probability of a rally tomorrow is relatively high. Additionally, the South Korean government has issued statements aiming to prevent adverse effects of tariffs on Korean companies.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $SNDK Macro Overview｜September Rate Hike Probability Soars, SNDK Faces a Valuation vs. Fundamentals Crossroad
On September 3rd, CME FedWatch data updated, showing a 37.7% pricing for maintaining rates in September, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 62.3%. Market expectations for tightening are rapidly heating up. Many friends are asking, if the Fed ultimately implements a rate hike, what does it mean for $SNDK SanDisk?
From my perspective, the short-term outlook likely leans bearish. The underlying logic is straightforward: once rate hikes begin, the risk-free rate in the market rises, and high-valuation growth sectors will be the first to face valuation compression.
Since the start of this year, SanDisk has experienced a huge rally, with the AI storage sector's optimistic outlook already fully priced in by the market. Once capital starts to reduce risk appetite and shift to safe havens, high-beta storage assets like SNDK are very likely to become the primary targets for short-term profit-taking.
However, bearish does not mean the trend is over; SanDisk's fundamental support remains very solid. The latest quarterly report delivered an impressive performance: Q4 of fiscal 2026 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; among which the data center business grew 437% year-over-year. The real demand for AI server storage continues to be released, and the industry's upward cycle logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, my judgment is clear: rate hikes impact secondary market valuations but do not directly damage the company's own fundamentals. Leading data has already started to release signals. The ADP private employment report for August, released on Wednesday, showed an increase of only 38,000 jobs, below the market's previous expectation of about 47,000 to 48,000, and also lower than the upwardly revised 46,000 jobs in July, marking a relatively weak level this year, indicating that the U.S. labor market is indeed showing signs of cooling. The real test will be the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report released on September 4. The market's current core expectation is around 50,000. I have broken down the possible market scenarios for tonight/tomorrow night into three types: ① Nonfarm significantly below expectations｜Bullish for BTC 📈 Assuming new jobs are only 20,000 to 40,000. Both ADP and nonfarm weaken simultaneously, the market may further bet on economic cooling, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure, and rate cut expectations reheat. BTC scenario: First a quick rally → break short-term resistance → if not prematurely priced in, it may form a continuation trend. But beware of a trap: worse data does not necessarily mean BTC will keep rising. If BTC has already surged significantly before the data release, the announcement may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, first spiking then quickly falling back. --- ② Nonfarm significantly above expectations｜BTC under pressure 📉 If new jobs come in at 70,000 to 90,000 or even higher, clearly exceeding market expectations. This means: employment resilience may be stronger than ADP suggested → rate cut expectations cool down → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen → risk assets face short-term pressure. BTC is more likely to experience: Brothers, although BTC and ETH are both recovering in this wave, I really feel a bit anxious for the bulls 😂
$BTC is now around 77,700, $ETH about 2398, both approaching the moving averages again on the 15-minute chart, but volume hasn't significantly increased, so I tend to see this as a weak recovery rather than a new major rally.
The real risk now lies in the news. Yesterday, ADP employment only increased by 38,000, clearly below the expected 48,000, indicating that US employment is indeed cooling down; but on the other hand, oil prices remain above $90, inflation pressure hasn't fully eased, and the market's expectation for a 25bp Fed rate hike in September has been pushed back to around 67%.
More importantly, the August nonfarm payrolls are about to be released, with the market currently expecting an increase of about 50,000–60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.1%.
So really, don't get excited just because prices have risen a few hundred dollars; the nonfarm payrolls are the big test this week. If the nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected and rate hike expectations continue to rise, BTC might retest 76,000 or even lower; for ETH, I’m focusing on the 2400 level—if it breaks below and can't recover, bears will clearly dominate.
Conversely, if the nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected and rate hike expectations cool down, this current recovery could suddenly turn into a real rebound.
My current stance: no chasing shorts, no blindly chasing longs, just watching the nonfarm first. This market right now feels like—the bulls just caught their breath, and the bears are already sharpening their knives at the door 😂
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $CORE was originally scheduled for 11:00 → postponed to 17:00 the same day → further delayed to 11:00 on September 4. The exchange's two delays in opening deposits and withdrawals are essentially risk-avoidance measures.
After the hard fork vulnerability incident, on-chain accounting anomalies and leftover issues from token issuance have not been fully resolved. The exchange prefers to keep postponing rather than hastily open channels and bear the risk of asset disputes.
Previously, the direct shutdown of CORE's on-chain earning products was the first-level statement; now, the repeated delays in deposit and withdrawal maintenance are a second-level signal.
The platform will not publicly express a bearish view on the project, but these two actions combined have already raised CORE's risk level in practice.
The market understands this silent stance:
Originally, everyone expected the unlocking of deposits and withdrawals to bring a bullish trend. As the delays continue, capital realizes the exchange's deep concerns, and funds betting on positive outcomes gradually withdraw.
Even if deposits and withdrawals open smoothly at 11:00 tomorrow, it will no longer be a pure positive. The market will be cautious, worried that other hidden risks may emerge later, significantly weakening the rebound strength, and it is possible that a large amount of tokens will be sold off through the channel opening.