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$CASHCAT The spot trading volume of this asset is probably less than the principal amount everyone uses to open a single contract.$ETH's rebound this time is really relentless, pulling back from around 2635 all the way to 2720.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Babala chooses to continue adding to the short position, raising the average short price to 2705.
As of this writing, OKX ETH perpetual is around 2714, with the price temporarily above my average price. This additional position is not because I have confirmed 2720 as the top, but to observe whether the previous high resistance can push the price down again.
In the past 24 hours, ETH's low was 2635 and high was 2720, basically completing a full V-shaped rebound.
This indicates strong support below, and short-term bulls have regained the initiative. So now, shorting should not be based solely on "it has risen a lot," but on whether there are real signs of stagnation and pullback near 2720.
2715–2720 is the immediate resistance.
If ETH fails to hold above 2720 after a surge and then falls back below 2695, this rise might be a false breakout or a pre-data release pump. Next support levels to watch are 2680 and then 2650.
But if the price breaks through 2720 and holds above 2730 on the hourly chart, it means the previous high resistance has been absorbed, and the market may continue to extend toward 2760, with a bigger target at 2800.
At that point, the short position at 2705 will clearly weaken in the short term and normal breakouts should no longer be seen as "pump and trap."
$BTC's movement should also be watched together.
BTC has currently rebounded to around 84100, close to the past 24-hour high of 84347. As long as BTC stays above 84000, ETH is likely to maintain strength; if BTC falls back below 83500, the probability of ETH pulling back near 2720 after a surge increases.
The real factor that might break this range next is still the PCE.
August PCE will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 30. If inflation is higher than expected, market expectations for easing policies may cool, making ETH more likely to fall back from around 2720; if PCE cools significantly, risk assets may continue to rebound, and shorts should guard against price squeezing toward 2760 or even 2800.
After PCE, there is the non-farm payroll on October 2.
So the market in the next two days is likely not a steady rise or fall, but repeated tests of key levels around the data releases.
Babala's average short price after adding is 2705; now focus on 2720–2730.
If it can't hold above, wait for it to fall back to 2695; if it firmly holds above 2730, acknowledge this rebound is stronger than I expected.
This time it's not a bet on "what goes up must come down," but a bet that the previous high resistance has not truly been broken yet.Big short seller Burry bets on an early AI crash, Er Gou advises you not to catch the last baton
Burry publicly stated that "the AI bubble may burst earlier than expected," converting all his short positions in Micron, Nebius, Palantir, and semiconductor ETFs into put options expiring in 2027, betting big with a smaller cost.
His logic is simple: the market's pricing of AI has overestimated extremely high growth expectations, but actual corporate revenues do not match. As soon as one earnings report falls short of expectations, funds will turn sour.
Er Gou's view:
Burry is looking at 2027, which doesn't mean an immediate crash. But in the short term, AI concepts and optical modules (like LITE) will fluctuate repeatedly, so don't chase highs at the peak of sentiment.
Strategy: Hold your spot positions steady, control your contracts. Wait for PCE and non-farm payroll data to land; preserving principal is more important than anything.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ETH has been driven mostly by leverage since yesterday.
Positions continue to build up and get flushed, while spot demand remains relatively quiet.
Until fresh spot buying steps in, ETH may continue trading sideways for a while. 👀
#DailyOrbit #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #AnthropicIPOReality This rebound came unexpectedly
I was just pondering whether to use the money I earned from food delivery to go all-in on $NEAR short positions, but the market suddenly started to rebound.
The overall market is slowly lifting, $AAVE violently surged by ten points, and the DeFi sector is collectively stirring. Watching this short squeeze, I felt a chill down my spine.
Still holding a 50x short position on $NEAR, this coin loves to spike and sweep out stops; I've suffered countless losses before. There’s no major positive news, it’s just a rebound triggered by short-term shorts stopping out.
What I fear most now is this kind of market—seeing floating profits in hand, and in minutes a surge wipes out all high-leverage short positions.
I just had the thought of going all-in to add positions, but now looking back, I’m breaking out in a cold sweat.
The hard-earned money from food delivery under the sun and wind really shouldn’t be blindly thrown into contracts to gamble for a turnaround.
Floating profits are never real money; without closing the position and taking profits, even the most attractive account numbers are illusions.
Under high leverage, the market can turn against you in minutes. Control your hands, don’t add positions casually; staying alive is more important than getting rich overnight.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC $ZEC $ETH BTC is consolidating between 82000-84000, it might either dip to 80500/81000 to clear long positions before pulling back up. Previously mentioned there are long positions around 75100 to set up buy orders. Stop loss at 79500.I am really disappointed with NEAR right now; it can't compare to today's king AVAX!!
Like ENA and SUI, the early surge was too strong, and the correction time was insufficient. Therefore, when the ETH market stabilizes, they may further decline until the market completely reverses, only then can they follow the rise.
So, what needs to be done now is to avoid opening new NEAR positions casually and be sure to wait for sufficient time for adjustment before following up.$ETH's increase surpasses $BTC, with new buying pressure focusing on Ethereum.
According to the current OKX spot market, $BTC is priced at $84,040, up 1.21% in 24 hours; $ETH is at $2,711.60, up 2.51%, and $SOL up 1.25%. ETH is performing stronger among mainstream assets.
ETH perpetual positions have risen from about $1.542 billion in the previous round to $1.627 billion, with a slightly positive funding rate.
The simultaneous rise in price and positions indicates that contract traders are increasing risk exposure; the funding rate is not overheated yet, but continuing to chase gains will increase liquidation pressure during pullbacks.
There is also support on the spot side.
The US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $17.1 million on September 28, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of inflows; a new address also withdrew 9,132 ETH from Binance, valued at approximately $24.37 million.
Withdrawals from exchanges only confirm chip movement to external addresses and cannot alone prove long-term holding; however, combined with continuous ETF purchases, it at least reduces short-term sellable supply.
Meanwhile, about 130,000 long-term held ETH were transferred to trading platforms near $2,680 previously. ETH has resumed trading above this average price, and potential selling pressure may still realize profits during rebounds.
If ETH continues to outperform BTC and drives SOL to expand gains, capital can be considered to be spreading outward; if positions rise but the price stalls around $2,720, new longs will first bear the risk of retracement.XRP is grinding between 1.47 and 1.52 on Tuesday, with no decent pullback after the spike to 1.658 this week.
Yesterday's low was 1.470, high 1.542, closing at 1.495. Today it opened around 1.495, with a high of 1.522 and a low of 1.466, current price about 1.505. Volume shrank from 92.04 million to 46.6 million, indicating weak rebound buying.
Resistance remains between 1.522 and 1.542, with further resistance from 1.630 to 1.658 above that. On the downside, if 1.466 breaks, 1.452 is likely the next support; if that fails, short-term price may seek space down to 1.388.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 1.505 can hold. If it can't, consider it as still digesting the drop from 1.658 and avoid chasing at this price. Those already holding should watch if the low at 1.466 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait to see if the pullback fails to break 1.522 before considering entry—don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $XRP #BTC现货ETF weekly inflows hit the highest in nearly a year
Good news keeps coming one after another!
BTC hasn't hit a new high, but ETF funds have reached the highest weekly inflow in nearly a year! Who is quietly taking over?
From September 21 to 25, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net weekly inflow of about $2.386 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow in nearly a year.
What's more interesting is that during the same period, BTC did not break out; instead, the price fluctuated repeatedly at a high level.
This indicates a clear expectation gap: short-term traders are hesitant, while institutional funds continue to increase their allocations.
And this is not just a single fund supporting the market—BlackRock IBIT had a weekly inflow of about $1.158 billion, and Fidelity FBTC also reached about $702 million.
What I care more about is not the "$2.386 billion" figure itself, but that ETF funds have been flowing back for several consecutive days, pushing the cumulative net inflow for 2026 back into positive territory.
However, there is also a risk here: the pace of fund inflows has clearly started to slow this week, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to a high of 5.27%, and macro liquidity pressure still exists.
So the real battleground for BTC now is not just the price, but whether "institutional buying" or "high interest rate pressure" will gain the upper hand first.
The key focus going forward is whether ETF funds can continue and whether BTC can break through previous highs again. #OKXNOW: The future has arrived, major content is being unveiled. This round of macro liquidity recovery is pushing funds towards leading protocols. UNI, as the DEX leader, is very likely to benefit. I lean slightly bullish in the short term.
Overnight linkage shows price at 8.932, down 1.9%, with a trading volume of 24.847 million. The funding rate of 0.0019% indicates bulls are not overheated; hourly level pullback is 11.33% from the high, while the four-hour level is still rising, 45.97% from the low, sentiment is somewhat recovering; order book shows 14,000 bids versus 13,000 asks, with bids slightly stronger.
In terms of operation, lightly buy on dips near 8.845, stop loss at 8.721, target 9.118; if it rallies to 9.135 and meets resistance, reduce position by half; if it breaks down, reverse position. Total position not to exceed 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#OKXNOW: The future has arrived, major content is being unveiled
#OKXNOW: The future has arrived, major content is being unveiled $UNI Brothers, I just came across some pretty interesting on-chain data, let me share it with you.
A brand new address made a big move right off the bat, opening a position with $4.91 million worth of $ENA, buying about 18.84 million tokens at an average price around 0.2607.
What's the most exciting part? ENA has already risen 56% in the past month, and this new address still dares to pour in a large sum at this level, which is quite something.
Let me break down the logic behind this for you. Usually, retail investors would be scared to move after such a big rise. But this guy directly threw in five million dollars, which usually means one of two things:
One, this is likely a new account of a big player or institution who thinks 0.26 is still cheap and is very optimistic about the future upside, so they are positioning early;
Two, there might be some positive news we don’t know about, or they could be doing some off-chain bulk trading.
That said, although on-chain data is transparent, sometimes these obvious signals are a double-edged sword. Following smart money can indeed be profitable, but you also have to be cautious that this data might be deliberately created to trick retail investors into buying at a high price. After all, with such a big rise, chasing now carries significant risk. $ETH/USDT (1h Chart)
ETH Strong Impulse Pushing Toward $2,720 Resistance
ETH prints strong back-to-back green candles on 1h, breaking up to $2,715.15 from $2,635.71 lows. MA5 ($2,695.80) is steeply sloping above MA10 ($2,683.41) and MA20 ($2,683.60). Volume expansion supports the move toward the $2,720.81 level.
Entry: $2,700 – $2,715
Target 1: $2,720
Target 2: $2,745
Stop Loss: $2,675
Break above $2,721 opens clear liquidity up to higher timeframes.
DYOR. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek ZEC is really tough for ordinary people to hold, the 1355 level can come suddenly.
Yesterday the lowest was 1520.48, the highest touched 1614.4 but didn't break through, closing at 1530.28. Today it opened at 1530.27, the highest was 1546.67, the lowest 1355, current price around 1419. Volume has increased.
1546 above is still resistance, only above that is yesterday's 1614. Below 1355, if broken again, it’s easy to continue downward.
In the short term, first see if 1419 can hold. If it can't hold, consider the dip not over yet, don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1355 can hold as support; if it can't, reduce your position a bit. $ZEC The fourth truth: A 5.18% US Treasury yield is like a knife held to ETH's neck
From a macro perspective, this is the most overlooked suppressive force.
On September 24, the 10-year US Treasury yield once reached 5.145%, and the 30-year yield rose to 5.444%, the highest level since 2004. Brent crude oil broke through $103 per barrel, rising more than 42% compared to before the conflict, driven by US-Iran tensions.
What does a 5.18% US Treasury yield mean?
You can lie down and buy US Treasuries, earning a 5.18% risk-free interest annually. No need to endure volatility, no need to worry about liquidation. And what is ETH's staking yield? About 3% to 4%.
The opportunity cost of holding ETH has become negative. You hold ETH and earn 3% staking yield annually, but you give up 5.18% risk-free Treasury interest. A net loss of 2.18%.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Ethereum's largest public buyer has increased its position again.
BitMine purchased 17,362 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 6.001 million ETH, locking up 4.9% of the total circulating supply. Since establishing its treasury strategy in June 2025, regardless of bull or bear markets, it has been consistently increasing its holdings on the open market every week—15 months, 6 million ETH, worth approximately $17.2 billion at current prices.
Meanwhile, Strategy is selling shares at the $85,000 price range to buy Bitcoin, while also using cash to repurchase preferred stock to optimize its debt structure.
Publicly listed treasury companies no longer simply reflect "coin price up, stock price up." They have turned crypto assets into leverage to manage capital structure—on the open market, this is currently the strongest form.
$ETH $BTC$ETH has been moving on leverage since yesterday.
Positions keep getting added and wiped out, while spot activity remains quiet.
Without fresh spot demand, ETH could stay range bound for a while. 👀
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#USTreasuryYieldHigh $HBAR is an enterprise-grade public chain using Hashgraph consensus, not traditional PoW/PoS. The council consists of major companies like IBM, Google, and Dell. It focuses on RWA, enterprise blockchain adoption, and extremely low fees. The total supply is fixed at 50 billion tokens, with about 4.38 billion currently circulating. Selling pressure mainly comes from unlocking, and institutional narratives are its biggest highlight.
Technical Aspect
Recently, there has been a strong short-term rally, with a 24-hour increase of over 23%, currently priced around $0.12. The daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for a pullback and digestion. Short-term support is at $0.10, with the first resistance at $0.13; if volume increases and it stabilizes above $0.13, the target range above is $0.16 to $0.18. If it falls below $0.10, the current short-term upward structure will weaken, with a pullback to the $0.085 range to accumulate strength. On the weekly level, the bottom range has been broken through, moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the trend has shifted from consolidation to upward. Capital continues to flow in, showing strong relative strength compared to the broader market.
Market and Capital
This round is driven by institutional narrative-led capital rotation, different from ordinary MEME coins. Institutional funds prefer this kind of compliant, enterprise-implemented underlying public chain. Trading volume has significantly increased, and capital inflow is sustained; the downside is the rapid rise, with many short-term profit-taking positions that could lead to quick pullbacks and shakeouts at any time. This week faces key Nonfarm and PCE data, with macro volatility likely spilling over to high-volatility assets like BSB. I lean short-term bearish; it's hard to have an independent trend before the news is released.
Down 1.1% in 24h, current price 0.09753, volume 1.555 million, funding rate 0.0097% shows longs are still paying. 1-hour trend is down, 4-hour trend is up, price is 9.14% above the 4-hour low, top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.47, indicating obvious selling pressure.
If rebound meets resistance near 0.09915, consider light short positions, stop loss at 0.10045, target 0.09425; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 0.09355, consider going long, stop loss at 0.09185, target 0.09785. Single position should not exceed 5%, halve before data release.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$BSB#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BSB This week faces key Nonfarm and PCE data, with macro volatility directly transmitting to CL. I tend to keep light positions before the data, not betting on a one-sided direction when unclear. The current price is 93.55, down 1.1% in 24h, with a volume of 22.531 million. Although it rose in the last hour, it still declined over 4 hours, casting doubt on the rebound strength. The funding rate is -0.0084%, indicating shorts pay fees; open interest is 497,000; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.27. Short-term buying supports the bottom, but resistance at 96.49 is obvious, and 91.16 is the last defense line. Strategy: lightly test longs on a pullback to 92.13, stop loss at 90.85, target 95.37; if it rises to 95.68 and is blocked, reverse to short, stop loss 96.82, target 92.44. Single position should not exceed 5%, halving before data release.
——For personal opinion only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$CL#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $CL $SUI
Beyond the new ecosystem narrative, what does SUI need to support its valuation?
Performance and incentives can attract capital, but sustained value comes from stablecoins, real users, and protocol revenue. Only when all three rise simultaneously does the valuation have a foundation for expansion.
If unlocking pressure increases and activity depends on subsidies, I would lower my expectations. Long position logic: 4H bearish bias, 1H rebound bias, 15m structure pin bar area has support#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点
Qatar is still relaying messages between both sides
The Strait of Hormuz navigation remains one of the topics
But the negotiation focus has expanded from navigation to the nuclear program
An official close to Reuters said
Trump is willing to consider easing some sanctions
and allowing the use of frozen assets if there is progress on the nuclear program
Trump later denied proposing any concessions
Iran also denied any change in its stance on uranium enrichment
Both sides are retreating
Once the news broke, oil prices quickly gave back gains
Brent crude had previously risen over 4%
So my judgment is
Until the exchange of conditions and the order are agreed upon
This sentiment can be reversed at any time
Don't rush to conclude that oil price easing expectations are settled
$BTC $ETH #美伊谈判 #原油$ETH 今天的表现依然没有摆脱老问题：上涨缺乏持续性，整体强度明显落后于BTC。 目前短线可以重点关注 $2,680附近支撑，上方 $2,735一带仍是主要压力区。每次ETH尝试向上突破，都会在阻力附近遭遇抛压，随后重新回落，说明市场追涨资金依然有限。 从走势来看，ETH目前与BTC的联动性非常高。只要BTC没有出现明显放量上攻，ETH想走出独立行情的难度仍然较大。 🔥 接下来重点看两个位置： - $2,735上方站稳：短线结构有机会进一步改善，可关注 $2,780–$2,820 区域。 - $2,620失守：弱势可能进一步扩大，下方关注 $2,530附近支撑。 与此同时，宏观环境也在增加市场压力。近期美债长期收益率继续处于高位，市场对高利率维持时间的预期升温；黄金价格也出现明显回调，风险资产短线仍面临流动性与估值压力。 所以目前ETH更像是在等待催化剂，突破前耐心观察，别因为几根反弹K线就盲目追高。 #ETH #BTC #Ethereum #Crypto #美债收益率 #黄金 #加密货币"Don't let Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls take the blame for today's decline"
The September Nonfarm Payrolls will only be released on Friday, so today's pullback can't be blamed on data. What the market truly remembers is August: 162,000 new jobs added, nearly three times the 56,000 expected. U.S. Treasury yields surged, rate hike bets intensified, and BTC fell from above 81,000 back below 80,000. That spike has long since settled.
Right now, it looks more like position reduction ahead of the data week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5.1%, close to the highest level since 2007; CME prices in about a 68% chance of a rate hike in October, with another bet for December, while September 16 has already seen a hike. Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 80,000–100,000 jobs in September, a cooling but not a collapse, which doesn't strongly support "higher for longer." In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled about $209 million, double that for shorts; leverage falls first, spot follows.
Don't label every pullback as "Nonfarm failure." Making up cause and effect before data release, then reversing when the real numbers come out, is the easiest way to misposition. BTC is around 83,000, with a total market cap of about 2.82 trillion USD, down a bit more than two points from Sunday's peak. This is not a crash, but position reduction ahead of data.
Friday's focus isn't on whether prices fell, but on the 10-year Treasury yield and the probability of an October rate hike: when rates ease, risk assets breathe; at rate peaks, 82,000 will be tested again. Is your position betting on data already out, or data yet to come?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, igniting sentiment in the privacy sector. Meanwhile, MMT in the same track is still consolidating around 0.18, with expectations for a catch-up rally and risks of a pullback coexisting. My judgment is short-term bullish but risk control must be prioritized. The four-hour and one-hour trends are both upward; the current price of 0.1801 is only 3.28% below the 24h high of 0.1836 and has pulled away 6.95% from the low of 0.1696. The trading volume of 1.549 million indicates moderate capital inflow; the ratio of buy to sell orders in the top 10 levels is 1.03, slightly favoring bulls. The funding rate is only 0.0050%, with a position of 9.479 million coins, indicating that leverage sentiment is not overheated. The risk of chasing highs is controllable but heavy positions are not advisable. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.1743, with a stop loss at 0.1685 and a target of 0.1868; if there is a direct volume breakout above 0.1839, chase with a tightened stop loss at 0.1782. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; exit immediately if stop loss is triggered, no holding through losses or adding positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT #US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2007, gold drops over 3%
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $MMT #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector's heat spilling over. SNDK follows with strength but is relatively weak. I judge it to be in a range-bound game near the upper edge, requiring volume support for a breakout.
Current price is 1735.1, up slightly 0.9% in 24 hours, with a volatility range of $101.9. Trading volume is only 419,000, and the funding rate at 0.0000% indicates neutral long-short leverage sentiment. The 4-hour chart shows a 13.89% rise from the low, still an upward structure, but the 1-hour chart is turning down, falling 3.49% from the high; the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 0.25, showing obvious selling pressure.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 1712.6, stop loss at 1698.3, target 1758.4; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 1766.2, chase the long position, stop loss at 1748.1, target 1798.5. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SNDK #US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2007, gold drops over 3%
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $SNDK Over 500 million long positions liquidated in one day, oil is close to 107, while Bitcoin bounced back from 8.25 to 8.4.
Public reports show about 511 million liquidated in 24h, with longs accounting for 80%; OKX BTC order book dipped to around 82,557 before recovering to the 84K range. On the other side, Brent is topping at 106–107, hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded, and the 10Y Asian session yield is still suppressing risk appetite near 5.25%. ZEC is still retracing, but it’s no longer the main focus.
My own view (not a trade call): ① First distinguish between "leveraged washout" and "spot sell-off" — more long liquidations don’t mean the spot market logic is broken; ② Oil and bond yields are genuine suppressors, don’t mistake the rebound for confirmation; ③ Observe 82,500–84K as a consolidation range, keep positions light before the PCE data.
Public sources: CoinDesk, OKX order book, liquidation aggregation.
Do you think this looks more like "leveraged positions cleaned out for a breather," or "macro still suppressing, just a quick bounce then exit"?$BTC 🔥
BTC remains the anchor. ETH tests market participation, while ZEC highlights higher-beta rotation.
Price alone can mislead; volume + OI provide the deeper read.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC confirm Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC diverge Narrow Breadth#MicronEarningsAhead "A whale's short position doesn't necessarily mean bearish"
I came across an on-chain alert: a certain address opened a short position of 650 BTC at $84,057, nominally about $53.68 million, with an unrealized profit of $950,000. My finger hovered over the copy trade button.
But after reviewing the positions, I paused. The same address also holds 20,000 $ETH long positions, with a cost basis of $1,936 and an unrealized profit of $14.06 million. ETH rose from $1,936 to $2,650, up about 37%; $BTC only rose 12% in the same period. He has already made substantial gains on ETH, so the BTC short looks more like an umbrella than a declaration of war.
Copying only the short position is like turning someone else's hedge into your own one-sided bet. If prices rise, he continues to profit on ETH and the short position's small loss is negligible; if prices fall, the short position absorbs the drawdown. Both sides are covered. Followers only have one side and risk being exposed to the wind.
So I didn't act. I'm more interested in when he closes the BTC short. That might be the real signal of a shift in risk appetite.
On-chain data analysis, not trading advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 美国与伊朗方面据报于周一分别通过斡旋方展开间接沟通，外交谈判出现新的推进迹象。与此同时，中东原油出口量升至本轮冲突以来的高位，能源市场对局势发展的关注持续升温。 🇮🇷 伊朗外长阿拉格齐在联合国大会相关活动后于纽约与卡塔尔斡旋人员会面，并表示预计将在周二收到美方回应。 🇺🇸 美国总统特朗普则表示，美方官员也分别与相关斡旋方进行了接触，但没有公布更多谈判细节。 📊 市场影响值得关注： • 若外交渠道持续推进，原油供应风险溢价可能进一步回落 • 若谈判取得实质进展，能源价格压力或有所缓解 • 反之，如果沟通再次受阻，地缘风险仍可能快速推高油价与避险情绪 • 对BTC、风险资产及全球流动性而言，中东局势仍是短期重要变量 目前重点不是提前押注谈判结果，而是观察外交进展、原油价格和资金风险偏好能否同步改善。 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Oil #Iran #USIran #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Macro#AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company, the AI narrative continues to heat up, and KAITO, as the AI information layer token, has linkage potential, but it has not risen in the short term. I judge that it is currently in a consolidation phase rather than a time to chase highs. The 1-hour downtrend and 4-hour uptrend are clearly conflicting, indicating an undecided direction and a higher risk of chasing orders. The top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.91, with sellers slightly dominant, the funding rate at 0.0050% is relatively neutral, and the open interest of 11.109 million shows bulls have not retreated. The 24h high of 0.3419 is a recent resistance, 0.3175 is a key support, and the turnover of 22.441 million indicates decent liquidity. It is recommended to place long orders on a pullback to 0.3213, stop loss at 0.3087, target at 0.3481; if there is a volume breakout above 0.3419, light long positions can be chased up to 0.3563. Keep position size within 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not fight the trend.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$KAITO#NVIDIA adds $150 billion stock buyback
#AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company $KAITO Recently, I researched a range of stablecoin cards and found that the fee structures are much more complex than I initially thought. On the surface, many cards advertise "0 transaction fees," but a closer look reveals costs spread across several areas: on-chain conversion spreads, cross-border fees, ATM withdrawal fees, and even exchange rate losses during fiat settlement.
For example, one card charges no transaction fees but has a 1.5% conversion spread, an additional 2% cross-border fee, and a 2% ATM withdrawal fee. For a $100 overseas purchase, the actual cost could reach $5.50. Another card charges a 0.5% transaction fee but has no conversion spread or cross-border surcharges, so the same purchase only costs $0.50.
Therefore, when evaluating cards, you can't just look at the "fee" number; you need to calculate the total cost of ownership. My approach is to list my most common spending scenarios—how much I spend on overseas subscriptions monthly, cross-border purchases, whether I need ATM withdrawals—and then apply each card's actual fee formula. After running the numbers, you'll find that the top three cards often aren't the ones with the loudest advertising.Eight consecutive inflows have dropped to only 30 million, institutions are still buying, so why isn't the spot market following?
SoSoValue/Phemex data: On 9/28, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow was about 31 million USD, marking the eighth consecutive inflow, but it was the weakest day of the month. Last week, the total inflow even surged to about 2.39 billion, accumulating over 5 billion; Strategy added 1,665 units at an average price of around 85,700. The current price, however, is hovering around 84,000, which is significantly below their cost.
My own breakdown (not a trading call): ① Institutions buying ≠ spot price immediately rising; reduced volume inflow should be seen as "slowing down in receiving orders"; ② 85,700 cost vs 84,000 current price, don’t interpret "institutions are still buying" as a charge signal; ③ Don’t leverage to bet on direction before tomorrow’s PCE, holding position is more important than slogans.
Public sources: SoSoValue/Phemex, The Crypto Times, OKX order book.
What do you think this wave looks more like: "institutions quietly accumulating" or "money is coming in but risk appetite hasn’t returned at all"?WLD pulling the same trick again? $49 million OTC locked for one year, and as soon as the news broke, trading volume exploded!
This storyline is actually familiar. In March, WLD did a $65 million OTC, and the price was under pressure afterward; in July, it was sold at a discount to Pantera, also an "institutional takeover" story, with the news sparking a surge before gradually cooling down.
$ARB and $SUI have similar situations: VC discounted OTC + lock-up, the market first hypes🔷 Altseason: revenue-generating projects lead
• 30-day growth: $PONS +350%, $UNI +110%, $ARB +150%, NEAR +180%
• ZEC: record above $1,600
• David Hoffman (Bankless): "They make money, generate revenue"
• Only 2 memecoins in the top 20 leaders
• Top 10 = 80% of market cap (vs 70% end of 2024)
• Themes: DeFi (HYPE, LIT, UNI, MORPHO), privacy (ZEC, XMR), AI (VVV, TAO)
🧠 Altseason 2026: traders choose revenue-generating projects, not speculation. Capital concentration in top 10.🚨 ALTCOIN SPOT VOLUME NEARLY 4X $BTC, INDEX 33 TO 62
Altcoin spot volume is now running nearly four times that of Bitcoin, according to Riosweb3. That marks the highest level since September 2025 $BTC
A month ago, the altcoin season index sat at 33. It has since climbed to 62, suggesting the move is broadening
This isn't just a few coins pumping anymore — spot capital looks to be actively moving further out on the risk curve
The rotation, in Riosweb3's read, has already started
$ETH Two hours ago, I was watching the 82K–85K range. The price initially moved upward closer to it but has not yet confirmed the direction. Binance public market shows approximately $BTC 84,067 (24h +1.19%), $ETH 2,715.8 (+2.57%), $SOL 119.6 (+0.96%); the 82K support has not been broken yet, 85K remains resistance, and major coins are more stable than altcoins.
The bullish view from Dongbimao is to build positions gradually on pullbacks and continue to expect a bull market; Bitcoin expert Feng suggests going long $BTC at 82.7K–83.1K with a stop loss at 81.2K, and taking partial profits near 83.9K. Public results show the support path is still valid, but the close above 85K has not been confirmed, so the rebound cannot be directly considered a trend reversal.
My personal market view is: if 85K closes with volume, I will raise the previous range judgment; if resistance near 84K persists, I will treat it as consolidation and avoid chasing in the middle. There is no sufficient publicly verifiable catalyst in the window, so I will not expand on specific projects for now. Will you wait for confirmation at 85K or continue to defend 82K? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. 💸 Combined losses across the three positions have now moved close to $4,600, turning what looked like promising setups into painful exits. The market is clearly showing that momentum alone isn’t enough. When support breaks and volume starts fading, even strong-looking coins can unwind quickly. 🧠 For now, I’m focusing more on capital protection, waiting for cleaner entries, and avoiding oversized positions during this volatility. ⚠️ No chasing. No revenge trades. Let the market confirm the next$BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#USTreasuryYieldHigh #Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial vaults simultaneously increase holdings, risk appetite warms but has not transmitted to SLX, the latter shows weak follow-up gains. I judge the short term is still dominated by technicals, with rebound momentum in doubt.
Although the four-hour level is in an upward structure, it has retraced 13.47% from the high, the one-hour turned downward, current price 0.06489 close to the 24h low 0.06262, turnover only 3.95 million, volume contraction is obvious. The top 10 buy orders total 9,691 versus 8,784 sell orders, strength ratio 1.10, buy side slightly dominant; funding rate 0.0085% is neutral, open interest 28.268 million coin-margined, no panic exit seen.
Strategically, if it pulls back to 0.06312 and stabilizes, a light long position can be tried, stop loss 0.06185, target 0.06647; if rebound to 0.06688 is resisted, then short term short, stop loss 0.06805, target 0.06340. Single position should not exceed 5%, exit immediately on break, do not hold losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$SLX#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial vaults simultaneously increase holdings
#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial vaults simultaneously increase holdings $SLX AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company, with the computing power narrative heating up, indirectly benefiting the ETH ecosystem. I judge the short-term trend to be slightly bullish but facing resistance above. The four-hour upward structure remains intact, with a solid 13.45% buffer at the low point on the pullback. However, the one-hour chart shows weakness intraday, having only retraced 0.14% from the high, with volume and price indicating that bullish momentum is being consumed. After a 2.5% rise in 24h, the current price is 2713.43, with a turnover of 27.099 million. The high of 2720 forms near-term resistance, and 2635.15 is the core support. The buy-sell ratio is 1.09, slightly favoring buyers, but the funding rate is only 0.0057%, with 601,000 coins held. Sentiment is cautious with no signs of overheating from chasing longs. Strategy-wise, place a long order on a pullback to 2648.5, stop loss at 2612.3, target 2718.6; if it rallies to around 2719.4 and stalls, consider a light short, stop loss at 2736.8, target 2655.7. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$ETH#NVIDIA adds $150 billion stock buyback
#AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company $ETH Robinhood Chain has been online for over two months, and the other side of its growth is beginning to emerge. On-chain investigations show that out of 53 Meme coin issuances, at least $18.43 million was extracted: some projects exempted specific wallets from anti-sniping taxes, and these wallets concentrated their purchases within less than a second of the token launch. Funds from one project would even flow into the launch wallets of the next new project.
During the same period, the chain's TVL once reached about $1.5 billion, DEX cumulative trading volume exceeded $50 billion, and daily fees ranged from $2 million to $4 million.
However, high TVL does not equal a mature ecosystem. A large volume of transactions coming from short-lived Memes does not indicate the quality of funds; what really matters is whether tokenized stocks, DeFi, and stablecoins can retain genuine usage after the Meme tide recedes. $ARB $ETH#ChainlinkCCIP2.0 officially launched
The leader has something to say
Chainlink CCIP 2.0 is live. This move is very crucial.
Institutional custom verification, compliance control, configurable settlement, with ANZ and Fidelity participating. Cross-chain security is the background; the industry was previously hacked for $292 million. Now, in nearly 4 months, over $15 billion worth of tokens have migrated to CCIP. RWA is moving from asset on-chain to cross-chain circulation, with LINK as the core pipeline.
LINK surged nearly 7% in the short term, now falling back to down 1.51%. Front-running before the positive news, cashing in after it lands, the old script. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
My judgment is that CCIP 2.0 is long-term infrastructure, not a short-term catalyst. Whether institutional support can turn into sustained trading volume and fees depends on subsequent data.
In terms of operation, do not chase LINK. Wait for a proper pullback before considering.
The long position on BTC at 84000 has been closed, locking in 1200 points profit. Currently in no position. The second wave at 82800 has been entered again.
This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are key; no directional bets before the data is released. Wait to see if it can hold steady near 82000 on the pullback, then consider light entry. Do not chase the rise or kill the dip.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Wish you good luck.Friends holding long BTC positions these past two days should deeply understand the situation: the market keeps pulling back and forth, accounts fluctuate between floating profits and losses. The current long position is floating a profit of 500 points, but the breakout is not optimistic. The 84000 level has strong resistance. It's only Tuesday this week, and the weekly candle has just started for two days. Large funds have no need to rush for a one-sided move. In the short term, it's highly likely to continue range-bound oscillation, with bulls and bears washing out each other.
The range is very clear: resistance at 84000 above, support at 82000 below. The best approach in a choppy market is to short at resistance and buy at support. Do not chase the rally or panic sell. This kind of back-and-forth market essentially tests your mindset. When prices rise, you want to hold for a big long-term gain; when prices fall, you panic and stop loss. Many people lose money not because of wrong direction, but because repeated oscillations disrupt their rhythm.
Now that the long position has floating profits, don't stubbornly bet on a breakout. When the price approaches 84000 resistance, just take profits. Wait for a pullback to 82000 support without breaking it before considering buying again. In a range, the worst is to hold a one-sided view. Until an effective breakout occurs, just honestly trade within the range.$BTC 🔥
BTC remains the anchor. ETH tests market participation, while ZEC highlights higher-beta rotation.
Price alone can mislead; volume + OI provide the deeper read.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC confirm Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC diverge Narrow Breadth#USTreasuryYieldHigh Everyone wants to know which AI company will win.
I'm becoming more interested in a different question:
Who supplies everything those AI companies need to scale?
Chips.
Memory.
Data centers.
Energy.
Networking.
Infrastructure.
The AI boom isn't one industry.
It's an entire ecosystem being built around one technology.
#AI #NVIDIA #Tech #ArtificialIntelligence"SOL has crashed hard, ETH is still around 2600: This is why you shouldn't heavily invest in altcoins"
SOL has already dropped so much, ETH is still near 2600. This is just a minor bull market correction. This is why you shouldn't heavily invest in altcoins. It's very hard to buy altcoins at the bottom; at the bottom, you don't even pay attention to them, you only chase after they rise. Start with a small position, add when you profit, and finally go all in at the peak. When a correction comes, you're gone.
ETH is different. First, you dare to heavily invest at the bottom. Second, even if you chase high, hold and don't sell, extend the time frame, and you can still profit in the end. If you hold altcoins and don't sell, they can really go to zero eventually. Do you believe that?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $SOL is currently very weak. Yesterday it bottomed weakly at 118 and rebounded, but it lost momentum as soon as it touched 120.
This indicates that the current buying pressure is very weak, and the overall trend is still downward. Next, watch the key level at 115.
If it breaks, it could drop to 108-110, which is a weekly high point and should provide very strong support.
$BTC is very strong today. Compared to SOL, Bitcoin is consolidating sideways while SOL is trending downward. Cost at 85,000, and treasury companies still dare to keep buying, what exactly am I afraid of?
Strategy and Strive together bought another 2,772 BTC last week, with an average purchase price around 85,000.
Strategy issued about 1.47 million new shares of $MSTR this time, raising $246 million, of which $143 million was used to buy BTC; Strive mainly relies on perpetual preferred stock financing to buy coins.
Corporate treasuries are turning "buying coins" into a financing business,
financing → buying coins → expanding the balance sheet → supporting valuation → refinancing → continuing to buy coins.
This model is very strong in a bull market,
because coins rise, stocks rise, financing becomes easier, and buying coins forms a positive cycle.
But if BTC continues to fall, MSTR and Strive stock premiums narrow, preferred stock financing costs continue to rise, and the capital market is unwilling to provide more funds, then it will become:
coin falls → stock falls → financing becomes difficult → treasury stops buying coins → spot marginal buying decreases.
So my judgment on $BTC going forward is:
Short-term oscillation between 80,000–85,000,
as long as it holds, treasuries continue financing to buy coins, ETF funds have no obvious withdrawal, BTC still has a chance to retest 90,000–92,000.
If 80,000 breaks and treasury financing cools significantly, then be cautious that this rally may enter a deeper correction. #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持