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🟠 Core Meaning
This passage discusses Bitcoin on-chain data: long-term holders (LTH) who have held BTC for over 6 months have recently shown a significant increase in activity in the market.
📊 What does the data mean?
The data provided in the article:
* Previous cycle: BTC held over 6 months accounted for about 6.8% of total "spent BTC"
* Current cycle: increased to 12.7%
In other words, the proportion of these older BTC moving on-chain has clearly increased.
⚠️ But "moving" does not equal "selling"
This is the most important point in this passage.
These old BTC movements could be:
Wallet A → Wallet B
Or:
Personal wallet → Exchange
It could also be other fund management, custody, or address adjustments.
Therefore:
12.7% does not mean 12.7% of long-term holders are selling BTC.
If transferred to exchanges, it may warrant more attention for potential selling pressure; if just transfers between wallets, it does not necessarily indicate bearishness.
🐳 Why is this data worth noting?
BTC held by long-term holders is usually considered "old coins" by the market.
If old coins become more active than before, it may indicate:
Long-term holders are repositioning their holdings.
This could ultimately manifest as:
* Partial profit-taking → increased market selling pressure
* Transfers to exchanges → potential increase in selling pressure
* Transfers between wallets$ZEC The bears' night is still long
ZEC fell from a high point, the bears just started to laugh, only to be pulled back by a rebound. On-chain whales exploded decisively, cutting cleanly; my few hundred U small position feels like dust forgotten by the dog traders.
Regulatory restrictions are tightening more and more, no matter how loudly the privacy narrative is shouted, the compliance door remains cold. Institutions can't get in, and I don't plan to either, only dying short in the gaps of the candlesticks.
$ETH Stuck between 2633 and 2720, like a slap aimed specifically at the bears. ETF net inflows, Strategy adding positions, the screen is full of bulls celebrating. My short just recovered some losses, only to be pushed back down by a V-shaped reversal.
$XAU Rolled down from 4698 to 4134, even safe-haven assets are bowing. US bonds broke 5%, 75% chance of rate hikes, macro pressure is suffocating. But the crypto space has ETFs supporting the bottom, ZEC recovering, ETH holding firm, while gold sneers on the side.
The bears' day hasn't dawned yet, just the clouds have thinned a bit. Hold on a little longer, waiting for a real bearish candle.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 SEC's New Stance on Buybacks and CFTC's Approval of Coinbase: Token Buybacks No Longer Necessarily Trigger Securities Laws
Regulators have updated the cryptocurrency compliance Q&A, with a key point being: if there is no identifiable centralized entity or party behind a buyback arrangement, such arrangements generally or likely do not constitute an investment contract—effectively carving out a buffer zone from the traditional securities regulatory crackdown for decentralized buybacks without a centralized issuer controlling them.
Almost simultaneously, the CFTC approved Coinbase's subsidiary, Coinbase Clearing LLC, to register as a clearinghouse, becoming the first clearinghouse to use USDC as native margin, officially bringing it under the commodity derivatives regulatory framework. On one hand, a broad delineation is made for decentralized mechanisms; on the other, centralized infrastructure is required to obtain licenses, undergo inspections, and implement risk controls. The dual-track approach is becoming clear. $BTC $USDC 回顾昨日波动，以太坊最高2720，最低2633；比特币最高84973，最低82501；基本是踩着9月28日分析中提及的日内最大清算痛点进行： 其中以太坊较为夸张，最终日周期收出十字星。说明一点，在数据周和地缘争端并存的时段，在消息面影响没有落地之前，行情很难走出方向走势，至少非农彻底公布之前，除非本身已经占据非常优势价位仓可拿，新建仓位，尽可能保持短线以及轻仓思维进行。 消息面上，本周主要有地缘争端和非农数据的影响。其中，今日（29号）凌晨两点，特朗普发表讲话，大致内容如下： 最关键处有两点，一是关于中期选举问题，时间，2026年11月3日，如果民主党在 11 月中期选举后控制众议院或参议院，预计将对与特朗普及其家族相关的商业交易展开调查，并重点关注特朗普家族参与的加密货币、预测市场及投资业务，以及向白宫项目提供资金的企业。从上一届总统选举后，加密行业的政策明显宽松，偏支持。一旦共和党在众议院和参议院席位控制占比大幅减少，明显对于加密市场是利空性，反之，保持现状，还有机会持续走强。 二是伊朗问题，至于伊朗战争结束，概率性不大，Popular Coin Data Rankings
$BTC transaction sides are nearly balanced, with limited net price change: In three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers account for 54.1%, buyers 45.9%; the current 15-minute candlestick dropped 0.01%; open interest increased by 0.04%, open interest value changed by -0.07%, with quantity increasing while value declined, the valuation change offsetting the quantity growth. These two indicators have not yet formed a clear one-sided signal.
$ETH selling dominance has not yet been accompanied by a significant net price decline: In three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers account for 66.2%, buyers 33.8%, with active sell volume about 1.96 times the active buy volume; the current 15-minute candlestick rose 0.02%; open interest increased by 0.04%, open interest value changed by +0.026%, showing actual expansion in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The selling bias mainly comes from transaction distribution, while net price change has not shown a clear rise or fall.
$SOL price rose, with transactions biased toward sellers: In three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers account for 59.0%, buyers 41.0%, with active sell volume about 1.44 times the active buy volume; the current 15-minute candlestick rose 0.08%; open interest decreased by 0.62%, open interest value changed by -0.71%, showing actual contraction in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The price increase lacks active buy-side transaction support, and these two observations have not yet formed a consistent bullish signal.ZEC flash crash 10%! Bottom signal or "death relay"?
From the 1H SMC chart, ZEC1695.50 peaked and confirmed CHoCH-, followed by two consecutive LBOS, forming a standard LH/LL bearish ladder.
Price plunged deeply down to 1355.00, sweeping the previous EQL/EQH liquidity pools, and was absorbed with a rebound at a large lower-level buy block (iOB 17%), leaving a long lower shadow.
Key supply and demand zones:
• Upper resistance (1440 - 1475): This area overlaps the broken EQL level and the FVG/BPR imbalance gap left by the 1H downtrend, serving as the primary strong resistance for a pullback; a stronger defense zone lies higher at the iOB and Strong High area between 1550 - 1590.
• Lower support (1355 - 1400): Short-term support is seen at the secondary demand zone of 1400 - 1410; if the price closes effectively below 1355.00, the bearish trend will further extend.
Trading strategy:
• Trend-following short: If the rebound enters the 1440 - 1470 zone and shows stagnation, false breakout, or minor structure breakdown on the 5m/15m timeframe, this is the best risk-reward shorting opportunity.
• Low long speculation: Currently, chasing longs has low risk-reward; it is recommended to wait for a second pullback to 1380 - 1400 before entering.Opportunity in crisis, don't mistake a pullback for a reversal
$BTC is still in a consolidation range, but altcoins are already "voting with their feet." $NEAR and $SUI dropped 10% overnight to start; some smell a crisis and short, while others use the pullback to add positions. My view: BTC retests around 81200 for a long entry, stop loss at 500 points, take profit near 87k.
ETH is more stable on the chart, with stronger support; even slight pullbacks show signs of accumulation. Long at 2650, stop loss at 2630, take profit at 2700; if it holds above 2700, continue targeting 3000. But if geopolitical tensions worsen or PCE exceeds expectations, close all longs promptly with stop loss and take profit, stay flat and watch; short positions can be tried in small size for the short term.
I do not recommend long-term or large short positions. Once an uptrend cycle starts, it won't easily turn down; the overall trend remains bullish. Stock market history is a spiral upward, that's the cycle rule. Futures anchor spot prices and can only influence spot. Currently, institutional spot inflows are net positive, retail selling pressure is negligible; holders of spot should wait patiently for gains and trade less frequently.
Contract traders should closely watch US stocks and BTC. If BTC breaks key levels, stop loss immediately; altcoins will fall back doubly. If geopolitical conditions improve and PCE data gets better, rate cut potential may open up; trading is about future expectations. Opportunity in crisis depends on position sizing, stop loss, and timing.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% ✅ Closed $TIA long position 20x
Entry: 0.4310 → Exit: 0.4576
Result: +122% ROE
I post every entry and exit, both profits and losses. Do you currently hold $TIA?
Not investment advice.🐳 Long-term BTC holders are starting to move their chips more frequently
On-chain data shows that BTC held for more than 6 months currently accounts for about 13.5% of the total BTC spent in this cycle, significantly higher than the approximately 7% level in the previous cycle.📊
⚠️ This does not mean that long-term holders are massively selling off.
Some old coins may simply be: ➤ Reorganized between wallets
➤ Transferred to exchanges awaiting further operations
➤ Long-term funds adjusting their positions
But what is worth noting is that BTC dormant for a long time is becoming active again. 👀
Combined with recent BTC fluctuations between $82K–$85K, ETF fund flows, and the macro interest rate environment, going forward, besides focusing on price and volume, it is also necessary to observe the movement of old coins, exchange balances, and long-term holder behavior.
If old BTC continues to increase liquidity, the market structure may face new variables.
Do you think this is a normal chip rotation, or is potential selling pressure increasing?
$BTC $Bitcoin #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #OnChain #DailyOrbit 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC September 29】
Tonight, the focus for BTC is not chasing highs, but whether 83000 can continue to hold. This round only verifies 2 independent BTC viewpoints, not pretending to be a complete sample of ten people.
1. Daan Crypto Trades｜@DaanCrypto: The original view is that BTC is still consolidating, but 83000 is currently holding; 83000 is the May high and the weekly structure breakout level. To continue, it needs to break through 85000, then look above 88000, and maintain daily closes above 83000.
2. Peter Brandt｜@PeterLBrandt: The original view is biased towards a higher cycle, believing a new bull market is coming; this post includes paid service promotion, here only for risk preference reference, not an entry signal.
Editorial deduction: Binance spot around 84206, perpetual around 84159, funding rate about 0.00658%. Only one route given: accumulate above 83000, attempt above 88000 after breaking 85000. Invalid condition is falling back to 83000 and failing to quickly recover, then first watch 82500, 82000 support. Risk: Not a copy-trade signal, chasing breakouts with high leverage may be liquidated by fake breakouts, and watch out for slippage and fees.
#BTC #ETH #OKBKeep an eye on PCE and non-farm payrolls this week, but don’t just ask "Is the data good or not?"
August PCE will be released at 20:30 on September 30, and September non-farm payrolls at 20:30 on October 2.
The Fed just raised rates this month, so the market is more concerned about whether these two data points will make it keep rates high.
If inflation is still hot and employment strong, worries about further rate hikes may intensify;
If inflation drops but employment weakens significantly, it’s not necessarily good news either, as the market will worry whether the economy can hold up.
I think the most worth-watching combination is inflation easing while employment doesn’t suddenly fall off.
After the data comes out, first look at how US Treasury yields and BTC react, then judge which expectation the market is trading on.
Relying on a single candlestick to guess the conclusion is easy to get wrong.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Last night’s live stream setup on $SOL played out nicely. 📈 🟢 Long zone: $114–$111 💰 The deeper dip offered another strong entry opportunity. 🚀 Position is now sitting at 160%+ profit from the original setup. If your position size is too large, consider taking partial profits and reducing exposure instead of chasing the next move. 🎯 Current resistance: $121–$123 📈 If SOL breaks and holds above $123 with strong volume, the next area to watch is around $128–$132. Meanwhile, keep an eye on $B$TAO
After the AI narrative cools down, what does TAO rely on to prove its long-term value?
Subnet usage, developer growth, and real payments determine demand. If resource consumption grows in sync with revenue, the network value is more credible.
If the price leads fundamentals and activity depends on incentives, I would lower my expectations. $BTC is pushing straight into a heavy sell wall.
$84.7K has $8.47M sitting overhead, with another major cluster from $85K–$85.7K.
Clear that shelf and $87.2K–$88K is the next battle, with more heavy orders waiting.
Buyers need to absorb these walls level by level.The ratio of the S&P 500 to the US M2 money supply has just surpassed the peak of the 2000 internet bubble — it is now 0.330, compared to 0.308 in August of that year.
This indicator measures "how much money is supporting stocks," and the higher the ratio, the more stock prices rely on monetary expansion rather than real earnings.
Historically, readings at this level correspond to one of the worst stock market tops in modern financial history.
Of course, a top is never determined by a single ratio; the monetary environment and earnings growth also change the conclusion.
But there is a logic worth remembering: bubbles often burst not because valuations are too high, but because the inertia of new money suddenly stops.
Watching this ratio can give an earlier sense of the market's condition than just watching the index level.Sisters, the recent trend of $ZEC is really a bit complicated. I dare not chase longs, and hanging shorts gets me stuck. Look at these two orders in my screenshot, I'm really torn!
First, look at the short order opened at 909, with a floating loss of -561.10%. Although it has recovered a bit from the previous -826%, it's still in the abyss. The margin is 28U, the liquidation price is pinned at 1909, which is still some distance away. But watching it swing wildly every day makes my heart go up and down.
The long order opened at 1388 is in the green, earning +22.83%, but that's just a tiny profit. I don't dare to hold more, afraid it might crash anytime and swallow my profits.
Why so conflicted? Because the current long-short ratio shows 21% longs and 79% shorts! Retail investors are all desperately shorting, thinking it's topped out. But would the whales be so kind as to let 79% of people comfortably take profits? If it rallies against the trend, shorts become fuel; but if it really falls, my short order can get out of the red.
So the current strategy can only be short-term speculation. Resistance above is at 1500-1520, short on rebounds hitting resistance; support below is at 1380-1400, long on pullbacks stabilizing. Whether long or short, enter only at the right position, take a bite and run, never heavy positions, never stubbornly hold.
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #Tether has cooperated with law enforcement this year to freeze nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran: over $344 million was frozen in April (linked to Iran's central bank), and more than $130 million was frozen in four wallets in July.
These figures are a double-edged sword for the stablecoin narrative.
On the positive side, it proves that the issuer of USDT has both the capability and willingness to comply with sanctions enforcement, which weakens regulatory accusations that stablecoins are merely money laundering tools;
On the other hand, the fact that assets can be frozen at any time is itself a risk exposure—a centrally controlled liability by nature, as it is an asset that can be locked according to law enforcement demands.
Whether to use USDT is not a matter of belief, but whether you are willing to accept the premise that "assets can be disposed of by a third party."$BTC, after breaking the high point twice and breaking below 8.6, reaching a high of 8.7, as mentioned before, the healthiest approach is to form a bottom after a pullback, stabilizing above 8.2, and forming a solid, strong buying zone between 8.2-8.5. Then, the bottom can gradually move up, creating a favorable upward environment.
In the past week, the price has been fluctuating with upper and lower wicks around 825-850. In my view, this fluctuation represents a healthy environment. I estimate this pattern will continue for at least 1-2 weeks, where the price can be sold high and bought low near 825-850, with each move about 500-800 points, which is relatively safe and reliable.
This kind of environment may not be as fast or thrilling as a one-sided trend, but it’s quite comfortable~One of my favorite crypto lessons came from doing absolutely nothing.
I watched BTC move.
I saw people reacting.
I had a few ideas.
But none of my setups were clear.
So I stayed out.
Nothing exciting happened.
And that was the lesson.
Not every market needs my participation.
Sometimes protecting your attention is just as important as protecting your capital.
What's harder for you:
Waiting for a setup
or staying with it once you have one?
#BTC #Crypto #TradingI started saving one sentence after every trade:
“What was I feeling when I clicked?”
Not the setup.
Not the indicator.
Not the result.
Just the feeling.
FOMO.
Boredom.
Confidence.
Fear.
Impatience.
After enough trades, patterns started appearing.
Sometimes the biggest problem isn't the strategy.
It's the person pressing the button.
Have you ever noticed a repeating emotion in your trades?
#Crypto #Trading #TradingPsychology#US-Iran negotiations continue, nuclear issues and sanctions become new focus
The leader has something to say
The focus of US-Iran negotiations has shifted. Previously it was all about the Strait of Hormuz, now it has escalated to Iran's nuclear program and US sanctions arrangements. Qatar is mediating in the middle.
Some US officials hinted that Trump is willing to ease some sanctions and allow Iran to use part of its frozen assets if there is progress on the nuclear program. But Trump later denied this. Iran also denied reports of possible adjustments to uranium enrichment. The two sides haven't even agreed on exchanging conditions or the sequence of actions.
Once the news broke, oil prices, which had risen more than 4%, quickly gave back gains. The market is very sensitive to negotiation news, and oil prices fluctuate accordingly.
My judgment is simple. The negotiations are still in the bargaining stage, neither side has budged, and no substantial progress has been seen. Oil prices will remain volatile in the short term, and inflation pressure won't ease just because of a few hints. The Fed just raised rates, long-term US Treasury yields remain high, and macro pressure hasn't changed.
I have already closed my long BTC position at 84000, locking in a profit of 1200 points. Currently, I am out of the market. This week's PCE and non-farm payroll data are key; I won't take a directional bet before the data is released. If the price pulls back to around 82000 and holds, I will consider light re-entry.
No chasing the rally or panic selling, waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders on your trades. Good luck.Today’s BTC weakness reminded me of an old habit:
I used to treat every red day like something I needed to fix.
Now I see it differently.
A red day isn't a personal challenge.
A green day isn't a reward.
The market doesn't know my position,
my entry,
or what I want to happen.
That sounds obvious.
But accepting it changed the way I trade.
What was the hardest mindset shift for you?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Trading#ZEC hits a new high in this rally, approaching $1700
Absolutely insane, it's $ZEC
ZEC doubled in a month, nearing $1700! This rally is no ordinary rebound.
Recently, ZEC surged to about $1697, setting a new high in this round; since starting around $800 at the end of August, the increase has exceeded 100%.
One of the core catalysts behind this is the continuous inflow into Grayscale's Zcash ETF, with ZCSH's net assets nearing $900 million since its launch.
But the closer it gets to $1700, the more we can't just look at the bullish logic.
Previously, ZEC saw large whales cashing out at high levels, combined with the rapid rise this round, the most likely short-term scenario is concentrated profit-taking and leveraged long liquidations.
So the real watershed now is not "whether it can keep rising," but whether $1700 can turn from a resistance level into a support level.
Holding above $1700, the market may continue to seek higher price ranges; failure to break through and a drop below $1500 means caution for a deep correction after this surge.
In short: the biggest positive for ZEC now is capital chasing the rally, and the biggest risk is also capital chasing the rally. I realized something uncomfortable about trading:
Sometimes I don’t want analysis.
I want reassurance.
When BTC moves against me, it’s easy to search for someone saying the exact thing I want to hear.
So lately I’ve been doing the opposite.
Before reading anyone else’s opinion,
I write down my own view first.
It’s surprising how much clearer the chart feels when you’re not borrowing someone else’s conviction.
Do you check other people’s analysis before making your own?
#BTC #Crypto $DOGE long position at 0.09543, staked 7 bowls of pig's feet rice, dog short position took profit, retraced 4 bowls of pig's feet rice, still earned 1 bowl
I feel uneasy, all are quite resilient, like just softened after a blast, resting a bit and still able to work
Also, one SOL is unusually strong, definitely medicated, I'm observing$QNT's rally from the bottom at the end of 2022 has now reached the historical high point of 2021.
The technical significance of this level is considerable: it was the top where everyone got trapped in the last cycle, serving as the strongest resistance and the most concentrated source of selling pressure.
Whether it can break through determines if this rally is a "rebound to the previous high" or the "start of a new cycle," which are completely different in nature.
For an old coin to challenge its historical high again, it often requires not just capital but also new narrative support—after all, the group who bought at the high point three years ago finally has a chance to break even, and whether they sell depends on their judgment of the future. Someone raised a very real question: When protocol revenue starts to decline, do you still insist on "looking at fundamentals" to hold?
There are basically three options—hold, sell, or buy the dip.
The key lies in the valuation anchor: if the token price is only 0.61 times the annualized fees and 1.22 times the holder income, it does look cheap.
But the trap here is that all valuation multiples are calculated based on "past data," and a declining revenue means the denominator is shrinking, so what looks cheap might actually become more expensive.
The difficulty of fundamental investing has never been about calculating valuation, but about judging during a trend reversal whether the decline is a cyclical pullback or a structural downturn.
There is no standard answer to this question, only position discipline.What? Is it stupid to short $ETH at 2700? Then is it very smart to chase longs at 2700? Why be so extreme? Is anyone who doesn't buy long a fool?
The average long-short ratio at top exchanges is 1.54, with long positions dominating. 70.6% of retail investors are crazily going long, and 67.1% of top traders are also betting on the bulls. The long-short ratio has piled up to 72.9%, and the funding rate is still rewarding the longs. The longs are as crowded as the subway during rush hour; such unanimous bullish sentiment is often a precursor to a market reversal.
Liquidation data: in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $534 million liquidated, with $431 million from long positions and only $103 million from shorts. Ethereum long liquidations were $54.13 million, shorts $30.38 million. Those chasing longs are being harvested in bulk, while shorts are calmly waiting.
My short position opened at 2,715.02, with the mark price at 2,713.87, hovering near the cost line. The price tried to break 2,750 three times but failed; the bulls are too heavily stacked, and the market maker won't let it rise without a shakeout.
To those shouting "chase longs at 2700," think about it: when retail and institutions are both highly bullish, which direction has the least resistance? Also, I'm just playing short-term, taking a quick profit and running, not holding long-term. The quality of insults in the comments is worrying! $BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 夜深了，屏幕上的K线还在无声跳动。倒上一杯威士忌，看着上周的数据，心情多少有些微妙。老美那边的比特币现货ETF单周净流入干到了23.86亿美元，创下了近一年的新高。连续七个交易日，近30亿美元的真金白银砸进来，推动大饼在三季度录得约43.5%的惊人涨幅——算下来，这可能是2017年狂暴大牛市以来第二漂亮的三季度成绩单了。 然而，老水手都知道，海面最平静的时候，往往藏着洋流的暗涌。仔细翻看数据，每日净流入已经从9月21日那波近10亿美元的狂欢，悄然滑落到了25日的1.34亿美元。机构这口“仙气”，似乎喘得有些急促。 在资本市场滚爬了这么多年，我早就不信什么“永动机”的神话。资金是有嗅觉的，也是最现实的。最近很多人都在盯大饼，但我习惯把视线放得更宽一些。看看美股代币化标的 $xSOXL（三倍做多半导体代币），再对比一下传统科技股里英伟达与苹果的胶着、以及 $MSTR 偶尔的小动作，你会发现市场的神经其实绷得很紧。半导体板块在高位剧烈震荡，AI信贷利差的异动都在暗示：流动性并没有大家想象的那么充裕，反而更像是一场拆东墙补西墙的结构性博弈。 当华尔街的传统对冲基金用ETF把比特币包装成标准化资🚩Hello B friends, good evening, I am the seasoned veteran Brother Chao
$BTC over 132,721 people liquidated, the dog whale is conducting targeted washout, is it a distortion of human nature or a moral decline?
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $534 million, with long positions accounting for $431 million and short positions only $103 million, over 132,721 people were liquidated. The core of this decline is the main force's targeted clearing of long leverage.
From a technical perspective, this level of concentrated liquidation will instantly push the 4-hour RSI into the oversold zone, the MACD green bars rapidly expand, and the bearish momentum is concentratedly released. The funding rate will also turn from positive to negative, which is usually one of the important signals of a short-term bottom.
The impact on the market is very direct, the bulls are severely weakened in the short term, and the market needs time to oscillate and recover, with strong resistance formed in the 84,000 to 84,500 range above. But after leverage clearing, the market structure is actually healthier than before, and once the selling pressure is exhausted and it stabilizes, the rebound will be very rapid. In terms of operation, do not rush to short now, nor catch a falling knife, patiently wait for the 4-hour MACD to show a golden cross or the price to recover above 83,500 before considering phased layout. Now it's a test of who can endure.
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$BTC $DOGE Today's rebound is like an ex suddenly sending "Are you there?".
Don't get excited.
It's not that they miss you, it's that they want you to take over the position.
BTC, ETH, and SOL all rise together, with OKB leading with a big bullish candle, like the class's bottom student suddenly scoring full marks.
Everyone's first reaction isn't applause, but: Bro, did you cheat?
PCE and Nonfarm payrolls are about to be released back-to-back.
US Treasury yields are still dancing at the ceiling.
Rate hike expectations are like the homeroom teacher's face at the back window, appearing anytime.
Big money dares not move recklessly, but shorts are packed like a morning rush hour subway.
A little buying pressure pushes it up, forcing shorts to cover.
This short squeeze rebound is forcibly lifted.
Remember:
This is an emotional pulse.
Not a fundamental reversal.
It's fireworks, not sunrise.
It's a last flash of light, not a medical miracle.
Next, Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively.
If PCE remains stubborn or Nonfarm is strong, this rebound can be slapped back at any time.
The current strategy is simple:
Don't guess the data.
Don't chase the highs.
Today's rally looks more like a bull trap.
Spot market should hold steady; avoid short-term leverage.
Wait for PCE and Nonfarm to land, then move when the direction is clear.
Don't forget the risk of high interest rates just because of one bullish candle.
This rebound is for you to escape or adjust positions.
Not for you to get carried away and add positions.
You are not a retail victim.
You are the warm-up equipment before data release.
Purely for fun, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🔥All real trading diaries of this account can be implicitly linked and traced
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Also just published an in-depth long article: "Black Swan Strikes, Why I’m Not Panicking Despite Position Drops," sharing my complete Dual Currency Win V2.3 system, three-pool capital framework, and τ trading philosophy. Welcome to read and discuss.
⚠️All content is for personal study records only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly risky; please be sure to DYOR.BTC has dropped so much, so why is the trading volume "not cooperating"?
As of September 29, BTC is currently around $82,800, with a daily decline of nearly 0.8%; however, the trading volume has not significantly increased in sync. Looking at the past few trading days, the volume on September 28 was about 72,300 BTC, while today it is currently about 65,000 BTC. The price is falling, but the volume has not obviously expanded.
This set of data is worth noting because true panic selling usually accompanies a rapid price drop and a significant increase in trading volume. Right now, it looks more like the price is weakening, but the market has not seen a full-scale rush; some funds are still watching.
Simply put: the price has fallen, but the "sound of dumping" has not noticeably increased.
Next, focus on two key levels: support near $82,600 below, and resistance in the $84,000–$85,000 range above.
What really matters is not just whether the price continues to fall or rebounds, but whether the trading volume suddenly expands the next time it touches these key levels.
If there is a volume breakout or a volume-driven breakdown, the market’s stance will be clearer; if the volume continues to shrink, it means the wait-and-see attitude persists.
So what’s most worth waiting for now is—where will the next volume-expanding candlestick appear?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC $NMR
Slept the whole day during daytime
Just woke up and found I still haven't broken even
But it's much better than at midnight
At that time, I was floating at a loss of over 300 points
Almost scared me to pee
This dog pump is a bit inhumane
But there's also good news
The funding rate hasn't been raised
Those who know me well are aware
I'm not afraid of altcoins pumping
Just afraid altcoins keep grinding with funding fees
It hasn't reached that point yet
I was originally ready to short $GRASS
But now I see it pulling back again
Forget it, I'll wait until the previous one breaks even before shorting again Finally breaking even this month! Let's see if this ONE trade can keep dropping further, brothers, is anyone shorting now?
---
Brothers, check the screenshot.
After grinding for more than half a month, this month's profit and loss calendar is finally showing "more green than red." The days of consecutive heavy losses (-1.5k, -821, -871) are still fresh in my mind, but in the past few days, I've slowly filled the gap by shorting. Especially today, looking at ONE's trend, all hopes of breaking even are pinned on this trade!
📊 Market Analysis:
ONE has dropped sharply from the high of 0.0029098, now around 0.00227, down nearly 9%.
The short-term support is at 0.00220; if it breaks below, the downside opens up, targeting 0.00200 or even lower.
🎯 Trading Strategy:
Keep holding shorts: The trend is clearly downward, don’t be scared off by small rebounds. If you have a base position, hold steady, target 0.00220.
Add to position based on levels: If it rebounds to 0.00235-0.00240 and meets resistance, consider adding to shorts with a stop loss at 0.00250.
Whether this month breaks even depends on how strong this short wave is. Brothers, let’s drain the dog whales and take back everything lost!
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Boss Shi's position set is very representative—both long and short sides are bet, but neither side held, and all three full-position orders are collectively under pressure.
ETH perpetual 100x full long: 160 coins, margin 4339.79U, entry price 2719.3, current price 2712.37, floating loss 1109U. Just less than 7 points difference, 100x leverage has already caused obvious wounds, the error tolerance space is squeezed to the extreme.
ZEC perpetual 50x full short: entry price 1355.35, current price surged to 1419.34, floating loss 3169.87U (-236.09%), the most severely injured. Grayscale news has driven ZEC to strengthen all the way, the killing power of 50x inverse volatility is the most direct.
BTC perpetual 5x full short: 0.1 coin, moderate leverage, but also floating loss.
Margin rate has not yet reached warning level, but the structure is extremely strained—super high leverage longs pressing down, two short orders holding up, basically directly resisting the current market trend. When the direction is completely wrong, holding the position only delays the stop-loss time. $BTC $ETH The current market looks like it's been completely drained, with multi-timeframe indicators stuck firmly in oversold territory, which does make your hands itch. But when I pull up the hourly volume, it's even more lackluster than my appetite at breakfast. Entering a position at this point lacks logic; it's basically just gambling your own U on a rebound. Since the system is holding an empty position, I’m too lazy to mess with it further, so I toss my phone aside, go downstairs for a smoke to clear my head. Patience is currently the most expensive cost of opening a position.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI 9.29 Market Brief: The Battle Between Support and Rebound
$BTC surged to 84300 but failed to hold, then steadily retreated, probing down to 82600 in the early session. It is currently suppressed by the short-term 4-hour EMA, so short-term bulls should remain cautious. If it pulls back to the 81000-82000 range, consider scaling in long positions gradually, leaving room to add near 79000; however, if it breaks key support, discipline should take precedence over expectations.
$ETH showed relative resilience, with stronger support than BTC. The 2610 and 2570 levels are short-term focus zones. If the market stabilizes, ETH may be the first to recover, so consider a phased long approach.
$ZEC plunged sharply this morning, with a smooth short from 1680 down to 1380. It has now reached daily-level support, making further shorting less cost-effective; it is recommended to take profits first. The upper short squeeze zone is dense, so if it follows BTC’s rebound, a short squeeze rally could occur. Consider going long near 1350, with a stop loss at 1300.
Overall: Wait for BTC to confirm a bottom, watch ETH’s support strength, and be cautious of a short squeeze rebound in ZEC. Position sizing and stop losses are more important than direction. This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #Tether froze nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year
Tether froze nearly $550 million USDT linked to Iran, but the report still questions: why not fast enough.
▪️ The Senate report examined 846 wallets sanctioned or targeted for seizure, 84% of which used USDT exclusively or almost exclusively
▪️ Looking separately at two lists: 87% of the 757 wallets listed by Israel, 57% of the 101 wallets listed by OFAC, with Bitcoin ranking second in both
▪️ Of the 39 wallets named in June 2023, 34 were frozen only by March 2024, during which $34.6 million moved
▪️ The report also named two Iranians who received $603 million via USDT from 2021 to 2025
The disagreement is not about whether enough was frozen, but who defines “timely.” The report measures the months between naming and freezing, while Tether says it acts only upon receiving credible law enforcement information — one measures speed, the other conditions.
The difficulty lies in the list itself being the only starting point. 84% of wallets never transacted on other chains, and before being named, an address looks like any other on-chain.
Should a response deadline be set for issuers, or should they rather wait for the list?"Coordinates Beyond"
This week, I pinned three coordinates on the screen: BTC 84K, ETH 2.7K, SOL 120. But prices are just signposts, not answers.
$BTC's 84K is a sentiment touchstone. Only if it holds steady and volume increases can we say momentum is rebuilding; if it repeatedly fails to hold, the rebound is just a correction.
$ETH's 2.7K is a defensive line. Holding it means capital is still willing to stay in mainstream coins; breaking it will lower risk appetite another notch.
SOL's 120 is the boundary between strength and weakness. Maintaining it means the ecosystem narrative still has support; losing it may cause short-term funds to shift to defense.
At the same time, watch two things: whether ETFs continue net inflows, and whether macro conditions push the market toward risk-off. The former determines incremental growth, the latter sets the bottom line.
Price gives the map, reaction gives the answer. I don't predict, I only follow confirmation.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $SOL peaked around 124, rising nearly more than double compared to the previous low, while $ETH was weaker in comparison, roughly close to doubling.
At the previous high in 2025, ETH was around 4950, SOL at 253; from the low points, ETH increased about 3 times, SOL more than 4 times.
Currently, the coin with relatively higher elasticity might be $AAVE, which rose from about 58 to over 300, roughly more than 6 times elasticity, the highest. However, around April, rseth was stolen, which impacted it, but as market information recovers, it is expected to reach a relatively good price in the bull market.
It is worth noting that JPMorgan Chase shifted from neutral to bullish on US stocks before the non-farm payroll data release. Be cautious of risks!Is this a bull trap on the eve of the data? Don't be fooled by today's rebound
BTC, ETH, and SOL all rebounded across the board, with OKB even forcefully pulling out a big bullish candle leading the mainstream. Just a couple of days ago, they were still drifting downwards; why did they suddenly rebound across the board today?
The core logic is simple: front-running and short covering before the macro data release. This week, PCE and non-farm payroll data are about to be released consecutively, and US Treasury yields remain sky-high. The market is extremely sensitive to rate hike expectations. Big money simply dares not move recklessly before the data lands, but the short positions on the market are piled up too thickly. With a little buying push, shorts are forced to cover, driving a short squeeze rebound. This is purely an emotional pulse, not a fundamental reversal.
Next, multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively. Whether inflation can cool down and how employment data looks all depend on the data in the coming days. If PCE remains stubborn or non-farm payrolls continue strong, this rebound could be smashed back down at any time.
The current strategy is very simple. Don't try to guess the data, and don't chase the highs. Today's rally looks more like a bull trap created before the data release. Hold your spot positions steady and avoid short-term leverage at all costs. Wait until PCE and non-farm payroll data are fully released and the direction becomes clear before making moves. Don't throw away the risks of previously high interest rates just because of one bullish candle. This rebound is for you to escape or rebalance, not to get carried away and add positions. $BTC $ETH $OKB #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
A new high in yields means that the US dollar will flow back, which is equivalent to a disguised interest rate hike, = pulling up the US dollar index. Because earning interest passively offers a higher return compared to investing. And it's also safe! The normal approach would be to save in banks or buy government bonds to earn high interest. This kind of news is actually bearish for stocks and crypto, as they are both risk assets.After the crisis was handled, the prize pool began to speak: Four days and four weeks after Bitget was hacked
On the evening of September 24, Bitget's hot wallet showed anomalies: attackers exploited a zero-day vulnerability in a third-party security component to forge authorization commands, withdrawing funds across multiple chains including Ethereum, TRON, and BNB Chain within half an hour, resulting in a loss of approximately $388 million. The platform detected the gap and cut off all withdrawals within 7 minutes, then issued a phased reopening schedule: BTC channel reopened first on September 28, ETH multi-chain on the 29th, USDT four chains on the 30th, and other tokens on October 2. The protection fund for 5,500 BTC is valued at over $464 million, with at least $300 million replenished from company reserves within a week. Following the crisis, a four-week peer program was launched, allocating 30% of net fees from non-institutional users into the prize pool, distributed based on trading volume and assets, paid in USDT. Fast suspension, substantial replenishment, and firm reopening restore trust. $BTC $USDTJudging the sentiment turning point in the crypto market, rather than focusing on the Fear and Greed Index, it's better to take a look at DOGE. This Shiba Inu coin is becoming a thermometer for retail investor sentiment.
The logic is simple. Institutions anchor on BTC, with allocations measured in weeks and months; retail investors anchor on DOGE, which has a low entry threshold, cheap unit price, and an active community. The first buy order for newcomers often lands on it. The capital structure determines the transmission order: new money entering the market buys DOGE first, then spreads to mainstream coins; old money exiting sells DOGE first, then moves to the broader market. Therefore, DOGE's volatility often leads overall market sentiment by one to three days, faster than the Fear and Greed Index derived from surveys.
Miners use canaries to warn of gas issues; traders use DOGE to warn of sentiment. When it strengthens with volume, it indicates retail investors outside are lining up to enter, and risk appetite is rising; when it weakens with shrinking volume, it means attention has shifted and existing stock market games are hard to sustain. BTC's candlesticks tell you where the money is; DOGE's candlesticks tell you where the popularity is.
The canary is not a navigation device. $DOGE is sensitive to sentiment but slow to fundamentals; a single tweet or community topic can cause it to deviate from the broader market. Treat it as an auxiliary signal: when aligned with BTC, the trend is reliable; when diverging, exercise extra caution. Understanding DOGE means understanding the largest group of people in the market.Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.505 | $SOL $119.5 | $DOGE $0.095
The three major altcoins show clear divergence today, XRP stuck at a key level, SOL weakly pulling back, DOGE grinding above 0.09.
XRP stuck at 1.50, SOL lost 120, DOGE bulls crowded
XRP is standing at the technical turning point of 1.50-1.55. Veteran trader Peter Brandt points out that the weekly chart may form an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline around 1.52. If confirmed breakout occurs, the measured target points to $2.05-2.10. But short-term momentum has stalled, MACD histogram zeroed out, retail 71.1% long, top traders 73.2% long — bulls are too crowded, 1.47 is the first line of defense below.
SOL fell back from above 120 to around 119.5, down about 2% in 24 hours. Key support is at 116.81; if the daily closes below this, the short-term bullish logic fails, next support at 114.36. But the mid-term structure remains healthy, price still about 40% above the 200-day moving average.
DOGE hovers above 0.09, up only 2.38% in 24 hours, more like noise than conviction. The 0.09-0.10 range sees repeated probing by buyers and sellers; buyers want to break 0.10, sellers frequently suppress it, so it’s consolidation before a breakout.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🔥"K-Line Night Talk: Big Cake $BTC Guards the Gate, Second Cake $ETH Keeps the Books, $SOL Works the Night Shift"
Act One · Guarding the Gate
$BTC sits half inside and half outside the 84,000 threshold, ready to attack or defend, holding a toothpick in its mouth: "The 85,000 VIP room won't be booked today; let's see if any return customers show up first."
Act Two · Keeping the Books
$ETH put a checkmark on the ledger at 2,718 dollars, up 2.66%, the most dignified one tonight. It didn't celebrate, just changed its "deploying" signature to "deployed."
Act Three · Night Shift
$SOL paces back and forth at 119.6 dollars, flexible and light sleeper, ready to jump up first at any sudden spike in the middle of the night. Its line is just one: "You sleep, I'll watch the market, don't send me contract links."The US Bitcoin spot ETF indeed saw a big surge last week. The net inflow for the week was about $2.386 billion, the strongest week since October 2025. There were net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling nearly $2.98 billion.
But looking at the daily data, something seems off. On September 21, nearly $1 billion rushed in, then it decreased day by day, dropping to only $134 million by the 25th. A typical "strong start like a tiger, then gradually slows down."
The price side, however, was strong. BTC rose about 43.5% in Q3, climbing out of the slump of two consecutive down quarters in the first half of the year, on track to achieve the second strongest Q3 in history, second only to 2017.
The current issue is: although the ETF weekly inflow hit a near one-year high, the daily momentum is visibly weakening. Whether the capital flow and price momentum will continue to carry on or lose steam needs close attention to the data in the coming days. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC #CPI
New CPI data will be released this Friday
Latest interest rate: 4.0
Latest unemployment rate: 4.10
Latest CPI: 3.4
Many people may not know, when the last Bitcoin bull market started
The interest rate then: 4.0
The unemployment rate then: 3.6
The CPI then: 7.1
The 2023 Bitcoin bull market rose despite rate hikes; at the halfway point of the bull market, the interest rate peaked at 5.5, and at the end of the bull market, the rate was still at 4.5. The previous CPI data was not much lower than now.
See? Market trends should rely less on subjective judgment and more on data for support. Pay more attention to the actual strength or weakness shown in the candlestick charts. If anyone still says there can be no bull market as long as there are rate hikes, you can directly ask them whether the last bull markets in the US stock market and Bitcoin were not during a rate hike cycle? 📊 On-chain inflows of $BTC plummeted nearly 80% on Monday, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP combined only seeing $64.8M inflow, finally breaking the continuous inflow momentum. The capital heat has clearly cooled down. I'm now watching the resistance zone between 83,847-84,040, which is also an ambush point for the bears. Above, short stop losses hang between 85,217-85,514; if these are swept, the bulls could easily surge ahead. After the volume contraction, do you think the bulls still have the strength to break through this resistance?