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$ZEC funding rate has turned negative again, and I want to emphasize once more: now is definitely not the time to short and enter the market!
The premise of a price pullback is a complete shift in the market's game structure. If retail investors blindly open large short positions at the current level, it will instead provide liquidity and a short squeeze incentive for the long-side main players.
What worries me most now is that, without a clear capitulation at all, a large number of new participants are rushing in to short, and the funding rate has turned negative again. This broken coin is very likely to be pushed up. How many lessons do we still need to learn before understanding this manipulative whale? Please enter calmly and let those trapped short at the lows be freed as soon as possible...70% odds of an October rate hike, and my three positions are basically fighting each other. 😮💨
$SOON short hopes for a hike, while $USELESS and $ONE longs are praying it doesn’t happen.
This week’s PCE and NFP data could set the tone. Hot inflation + strong jobs = more hike pressure; softer data = less pressure.
For now, I’m not doing anything crazy. Positions are small, so I’ll hold and let the data decide. 📊
$BTC $SOON $USELESS $ONEThe market tried to push higher several times, but the follow-through simply wasn't there. Every attempt to reclaim the upper range was met with selling, and momentum is starting to fade. Right now ETH is around $2,660, after a sharp move lower over the past 24 hours. My short was opened near $2,720, and the position is now sitting comfortably in profit, with floating ROI around 7%. I also have a $SOL short from roughly $121.40, currently around $116.80, with the position showing roughly 9% floa[Old Leek Observation]
$FIL This time, I actually want to watch in advance, not wait for it to rise first.
Filecoin's NV29 "Solstice" upgrade has entered its final stage, with Calibration testing starting at the end of September, and the mainnet currently planned for the week of October 19.
There are only about three weeks left until this window.
But interestingly, FIL is still around $1.1 now, even dropping more than 5% at one point today, with no obvious early hype.
This state of "the event is getting closer, but the price hasn't moved yet" is actually worth observing.
If the subsequent tests go smoothly, the mainnet timing is further confirmed, and the price starts to break out with volume, it might be much more comfortable to enter than chasing coins that have already risen.
Entry: $1.04–1.1
Take profit: $1.18 / $1.28 / $1.42 / $1.60 / $1.80
Stop loss: $0.97A Yuan's 5th day of effort: from 300u to 3000u.
Today, September 29, BTC and ETH each made one short order, earning 27u.
Total profit has reached 157u.
Today was supposed to earn 43u, but I couldn't resist and opened a 0G short order, losing 15u. Really a case of cutting off my own hand, I really can't touch anything else, if there's a sudden spike and it blows up, it would be game over. $ETH has been closed out; for this trade, I chose to yield to happiness.
$ETH continues to oscillate at high levels, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth, repeatedly stabbing and shaking out positions, which heavily drains holding sentiment. For this trade, I chose to yield to happiness, directly closing the position to lock in the profits gained from this oscillating market, no longer holding on to gamble on the subsequent direction.
The market is in a range-bound oscillation pattern, with repeated tests of resistance above and support below, without a clear breakout signal. In a choppy market, stop losses are easily triggered back and forth, and the uncertainty of continuing to hold positions keeps rising, making it difficult to predict which side the funds will break toward. In this environment, securing the profits already in hand is more prudent than stubbornly trying to capture the entire move.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $DOGE feel completely directionless lately. The comment sections are flooded with AI-generated noise, while every small bounce seems to trigger heavy selling. Then price slowly drifts lower, finds support, chops sideways, and rebounds slightly—only to repeat the same cycle.
It’s becoming an exhausting and frustrating market to trade.
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh I am also a retail investor and have been trading Ethereum for several years. Here are some of my own judgment methods. First, look at the technical side. ETH is currently priced at about $2,706, firmly above the 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a very neat bullish alignment. The key resistance above is in the $2,739 to $2,772 range; once there is a volume breakout here, the upside space could reach $2,900 to $3,000. On the downside, the EMA50 at about $2,668 is the first support, with deeper support near $2,440, which is a key level where previous resistance turned into support. Regarding indicators, the RSI is around 64, not overbought but buying shows hesitation; the MACD histogram is stuck near the zero line, leaning toward a choice. I usually wait for a volume breakout of resistance before moving, not chasing early. Next, looking at the news side. Ethereum spot ETFs have recently seen strong inflows, with a net inflow of $690 million last week; BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed $326 million, and ETFs have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days. However, there is macro pressure: the Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, and most officials expect another hike before the end of the year. The CLARITY Act is stuck in the Senate, but the market has already discounted this negative. My own approach: ETF funds are continuously buying, and the technical structure is also bullish, but I do not heavily position before resistance is broken. I hold core positions, reduce holdings if it falls below $2,440, and consider adding if it stabilizes above $2,772. I avoid contracts and only use spare money. This take-profit order feels very comfortable. Actually, I could continue shorting, but I only take the body of the candle, so I withdrew.$ETH rebounds keep looking more like temporary relief than a real reversal.
We’ve seen several small bounces that can tempt traders to take profits early, while others rush in to catch what they believe is the bottom.
With US Treasury yields still elevated, the high-rate environment remains a challenge for sustained strength in risk assets.
For now, I’m treating rebounds as opportunities for bears rather than confirmation of a bottom.
$BTC
$ETH
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
$XAU Why has gold been under pressure these past two days?
Oil prices surge → Inflation expectations rise → Fed rate hike expectations heat up
News from the Middle East/Hormuz Strait pushed Brent above 105, the market fears inflation persistence and starts betting on the Fed continuing hikes in October and December.
US Treasury yields soar
10-year Treasury yields hit 5.2%+, 30-year at 5.5%+. Gold yields nothing, so its opportunity cost is crushed by Treasuries.
Dollar strengthens
The dollar index stands above 101, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
Previous big gains + profit-taking before the long holiday
Falling from highs triggered stop-losses and quant selling; the drop resembles a "liquidity stampede" rather than a slow bear market.
Current position
Spot gold: 4110 is the short-term critical level; breaking below targets 4064 / 4020 / 4000;
Above, 4170–4180 is resistance for a rebound, 4230–4250 is the original lower boundary of the range; without reclaiming this, it’s not a confirmed bullish reversal.
Domestic Shanghai gold/retail gold: Shanghai gold fluctuates between 890–905 yuan/gram, branded jewelry still priced high (1200+), recycling prices falling faster.
This gold move is very similar to crypto logic:
Both are "liquidity priced": when rate expectations change, positions are cut first as a precaution;
Both fear the US Treasury yield as a risk-free anchor;
Geopolitical conflicts don’t necessarily boost gold/crypto; the key is the chain "conflict → oil price → inflation → rate hikes."
Don’t shout "down 300 dollars means a rebound" → bottom fishing in a high-rate environment = catching a falling knife;
Don’t treat gold as a short-term leveraged bet heavy on rebounds;
True allocation: wait for PCE (around 9/30) and Nonfarm Payrolls (around 10/2) to see if Treasury yields have peaked;
Strong data → gold keeps getting hit; weak data → only a decent rebound, but just a correction, not a reversal.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Today the account is looking fairly solid overall. I’m still carrying the $DOGE and $ETH shorts, both currently sitting in profit. I also opened a fresh $BTC long, which is slightly underwater at the moment, but the account as a whole remains comfortably green. $DOGE — Short Entry: $0.1002 Current: $0.0948 Leverage: 20X Unrealized PnL: +~650U ROI: ~105% This short has been open for several days, and DOGE has continued drifting lower without any major reversal. I’m not rushing to close it. My fir$ETH
My trading career is over. At this point, the biggest regret is towards myself and my parents. Without discipline, no stop-loss, and increasing leverage to trade contracts, a liquidation was just a matter of time. Now that the liquidation has happened, I actually feel more at ease. I can finally sleep well, take good care of my health, avoid staying up late, and exercise regularly, instead of being like a gambler blinded by losses, starving and staring at the screen 24/7. I should have done this a long time ago $ETH bulls, I hope you enjoy the cool breeze at the summit.
I've gone short. Bulls, don't rush, first look at three numbers.
1. Institutions are slowing down. Bitmine's holdings have surpassed 6 million ETH, sounds impressive, but last week they only bought 17,362 ETH, the lowest since August 17, the week before that was 27,562. Big players aren't short on money, they're short on the desire to keep buying at this price level.
2. Whales are running. On-chain data shows an off-exchange whale dumped 42,005 ETH, worth $111.89 million, now only 9,996 remain. Previously they kept adding to chase the rally, now they've turned and left. You say it's normal portfolio adjustment, I believe that. But I believe they ran faster than I did.
3. Bulls are too crowded. Retail longs account for 71.7%, funding rates are still rewarding longs. Crowded longs + positive funding rate, when has this combo ever been comfortable? Everyone's on the same boat, and the captain usually jumps first.
The technical side is simpler. The 2,720–2,750 range above is a strong resistance zone, with cumulative volume between 2,722–2,822 exceeding 13.3 million ETH, all chips waiting to be freed. ETH surged to 2,721 then pulled back, that’s not a breakout, it’s a slap in the face.
I'm not a short god, I just don't want to stand guard at 2,690. ETH gives me hope every time, then teaches me a lesson. This time, it's my turn to teach it.
Let's chat in the comments: At what price are you planning to exit your ETH long?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 【On-Chain Trading Update｜XRP】
Short position detected at address 0xc30c:
▪ Execution price: $1.53
▪ Transaction amount: $326,677.9
▪ Leverage: 13x#US Considers Restricting Diesel Exports, UK Seeks Exemption
The leader has something to say
The US is seriously considering restricting diesel exports to lower domestic fuel prices. The UK is anxious, relying on the US for one-third of its diesel, with only 42 days of inventory left and retail prices at historic highs, currently seeking an exemption.
#DailyOrbit $ETH
Testing $2,750–$2,770 Risk appetite temporarily warming, buying pressure briefly strengthening Lower
Maintaining $2,636–$2,720 range with fluctuations No major catalysts, volume continues to shrink Highest probability
Conclusion: In the absence of major external catalysts, ETH is more likely to continue fluctuating within the $2,636–$2,720 range tonight, with $2,800 being a "distant prospect" tonight. If the price unexpectedly breaks above $2,720 with volume, watch whether it can hold, but even then, $2,800 will still require more time and volume to be absorbedOld Leek Observation】
$XRP
There was a change in XRP's upgrade node today.
Originally, the market was focused on the XRPL Batch upgrade scheduled for September 29, but the XRPL official urgently released version 3.4.1 on September 25 to fix security-sensitive issues and added a new fixBatchV1_2 amendment. The original Batch upgrade expectation has therefore been postponed, and the official currently expects the new fix to be activated on October 9.
#DailyOrbit These key price levels of yours resemble high-level oscillations after a pullback rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
🔴 $2,806.96 — Key Resistance
The previous high is also the main breakout point. If there is a volume breakout and it holds above $2,807, the breakout signal is more meaningful; if it is resisted, ONE may still maintain range-bound oscillation.
🟡 Around $2,690 — Short-term Support
This is a dense area of short-term moving averages, worth close attention.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh⚠️ What the market is really worried about this time may not be war, but rather "money being too expensive"!
On September 29, the 10-year US Treasury yield once rose to 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007, while gold fell more than 3% in a single day.📉
The core logic is worth noting:
Oil prices ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → US Treasury yields ↑ → US dollar strengthens → Gold and risk assets come under pressure.
$BTC now also needs to be wary of tightening liquidity. Next, focus on the 10-year yield, PCE, and non-farm payroll data.
#BTC #XAU #美债#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% An influencer tower without shear walls has been barely held up by exterior decorative components for five years. Now, the short-cycle load has already pressed onto the top slab—this is not an addition, it's preparing for cutting and evacuation.
$DOGE has lifted itself by 5.43% in 24 hours, pushing to the 72% structural position of the short-cycle Bollinger Bands: only 1.0% away from the upper band, but 2.6% from the lower band. The floor is pressed against the top slab, with no margin above and empty space below. The short-cycle RSI has reached 67.9, crossing the stress red line I recognize at 64, confirming a sell signal—not because it is overbought to the extreme, but because it no longer has enough room to continue upward.
More critically is the mid-cycle profile. The price is at 92% of the Bollinger Bands, only 0.7% from the upper band and as much as 8.4% from the lower band—close to a 1:12 vertical eccentricity, which is the standard reinforcement pattern before cantilever structural instability. The long-cycle RSI is only 50.3, neutral like an old foundation never reinforced: the upper floor slabs are shaking, but the load-bearing layer shows no response. This is a typical "top-heavy, bottom-light" scenario, with the upper load increased by 5.43% while the lower bearing capacity remains unchanged.
The white paper is a rendering, the community is a sales office, and the real acceptance only recognizes reinforcement ratio, construction quality, and an iteratable underlying framework. $DOGE has never lacked foot traffic, but the load-bearing system: no structural redundancy for continuous delivery, no secondary casting for ecological reinforcement, relying solely on marketing curtain walls to hang an empty shell. No matter how good the curtain wall is, it cannot be used as a column.
Trading plan as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.08 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: $0.07 (-4.9%)
Take Profit 2: $0.07 (-7.7%)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (+14.3%)
Entry is set 3.4% above the current price, equivalent to hanging the cradle on the outermost edge of the eaves waiting for a rebound; the first target recovers 4.9%, the second target further breaks down 7.7%. The stop loss leaves a 14.3% construction margin because the rebound of this kind of non-load-bearing wall structure is often wilder than on the blueprint, so fault tolerance must be greater than greed.
My judgment is simple: decorative components must not participate in load-bearing. No matter how lively the rendering is, it cannot pass structural acceptance. #coinmovealert⚠️Double deadly bearish pressure looming! BTC institutional buying has completely dried up, a major correction is on the way
BTC faces two major core bearish resonances📊
①ETF funds sharply decline: single-day inflows rapidly shrink from nearly 1 billion USD to 135 million USD, institutional incremental buying is weak.
②US Treasury yields surge significantly: 10-year hits a new high since 2007, 30-year refreshes 2002 peak, market rate hike expectations heat up, suppressing risk assets.
Key chart levels:
Short-term support at 83000, if broken look towards 81500, further testing 80000; above 85000 turns into strong resistance.
Fear and Greed Index at 45, entering fear zone but not yet at extreme panic bottom.
Intraday fluctuation range 82800-84500, watch stop-loss at 82300.
PCE and non-farm payroll data approaching, market volatility will increase, avoid heavy positions, altcoin risks are higher. As of September 29, $BTC fluctuated around 83,700–84,300, with a slight intraday rebound (+about 1%), but still down about 3%–4% over 7 days. After falling from the high of 87,300 on September 21, two rebounds were both suppressed in the 86,700–87,400 range. Technical momentum indicators are overall bearish, macro factors are pressured by US Treasury yields, while fundamentals are supported by ETF funds—these three forces offset each other, resulting in neither a drop nor a rise, with the center of gravity slightly shifting downward.
Key levels
● Resistance 1: 83900–84000 MA50 + Ichimoku baseline; only above this can recovery be discussed
● Resistance 2: 85000–85200; after breaking through and stabilizing, short-term shifts to bullish consolidation
● Resistance 3: 86700–87400; previous high dense selling pressure zone
● Support 1: 82600 yesterday’s low, short-term defense level
● Support 2: 82000–81700 technical breakdown floor + ETF holders’ average cost around 81722, this is the dividing line between bulls and bears
● Support 3: 80000; if broken, structure weakens and may further decline
Leverage not yet cleared: On the day of the 85000 breakout, about 648 million short positions were forcefully liquidated (typical short squeeze), but total open interest increased by 7.6% to about 15.6 billion. Perpetual funding rates annualized on OKX are about 10.5%, on Deribit about 20%. This means a batch of longs with high holding fees are stacked near the top; once it breaks below 82,000, it is easy to trigger a chain liquidation.⚠️ U.S. long-term Treasury yields have risen to their highest level since 2007, with gold dropping more than 3% in a single day. Expectations of high interest rates are repricing global assets.
📉 Rising yields → increased opportunity cost of holding gold → pressure on gold; meanwhile, high-level oscillations in risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are more prone to amplified volatility.
Key focus this week: PCE and Nonfarm Payrolls:
🔹 Strong data → interest rate pressure may continue
🔹 Weak data → market interest rate expectations may ease
Before macro data is released, volatility risk deserves attention.
#BTC #ETH #XAU #EarningsObserver: Micron's earnings are approaching, with AI storage demand in focus 📈The bull leader is back: Big Brother Maji's "reincarnation script" plays out again
"Big Brother Maji" made a move again today, continuing to add to his ETH long positions, now totaling 36,000 coins, with a total position value reaching $96.23 million, just one step away from a small target. The average opening price is 2670, liquidation price 2581, currently floating a loss of $170,000 — for him, this pullback is at most a coffee-level fluctuation.
But HYPE's side isn't so easy, with 226,000 long positions currently floating a loss of $1.18 million, liquidation price at 73.05, not far from the current price, the risk hanging almost right over their head.
Everyone in the circle knows Big Brother Maji is a staunch bull, basically never touching shorts. His sense of direction is generally good; the problem often lies in his aggressive position sizing and heavy pressure. Once he gets stopped out, the market often rebounds afterward.
Some say he's too stubborn, others say he has money and is willful 💰. But from another perspective, in a market of constant harvesting, always holding bullish in a bull market is also a kind of obsession. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 🔍 $MU Micron's earnings report is approaching, and what the market may truly focus on is not how much profit was made, but how far the AI storage cycle can go.
AI demand is spreading from GPUs to HBM and storage, with cloud providers continuously increasing capital expenditures, which also heats up storage demand expectations.📈
On the other hand, Samsung continues to expand production, and whether storage price increases can truly convert into orders, production scheduling, and profits still needs to be verified.
📌 Key points to watch in the earnings report:
HBM orders | Demand outlook | Gross margin guidance
The market trades on expectations, data tests logic. Management's statements after the earnings report may be more worth watching than the single quarter's profit.
#MU #AI #semiconductor #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Approaching the monthly close, there will be a complex oscillating contract-killing range here. After the monthly close, it might dip slightly before going up, but it will still perform a fake move. Mainly, if it doesn't hold around 80,000 and breaks below, it should still be a bullish trend. If it breaks and doesn't recover, I will do a detailed structural assessment in the live broadcast.今天tao有了新的消息，tao准备建设跨链工具，将一个个分网链接起来，分网之间互相合作从而提升产品竞争力，也增加内循环收益，创作价值。 简单举例就比如，A有 GPU，B有 AI inference（推理），C有数据，D 有 Agent（智能体），四个合作起来就可以一次性包揽处理大单子的活，甚至再独立出一个他们合作的E网，而不用客户一个个寻找各个单独的产品去组合，这让tao的客户使用体验会更加舒服。 不过坏消息的，目前还没有成功，这并不是一次成功之后的公告，而是准备开始做的公告，简单说就是有一个梦想预期，但是目前全是泡沫，没有实际成功，是有空谈规划。 但是方向是好的，是有进展的，是未来可期的，尤其我一直认为tao的逻辑是ai时代正确的逻辑，tao就类似于ai界的“淘宝”，一个个商家（子网）入驻进来，在淘宝（tao）上卖自己的产品（比如算力、数据、存储），这是很有成长空间的一件事情，尤其是ai高速发展，tao绝对可以在ai步入现实的这个阶段中，吃到巨大的红利，就看最后是吃下一部分红利，还是吞下一大口甚至全部吞下，成为ai领域的“淘宝”！ 就比如ai火灾摄像头，是要比真人强大的，而如果一家酒Looking back at these trades, I can only bitterly smile now 😭
$ZEC 50x long position: $1,615 → $1,405, about -210U
$BTC 100x long position: directly triggered liquidation.
Two liquidations brought a costly but very clear lesson: leverage amplifies profits but also magnifies mistakes.
My current approach is simple:
➤ Pause contract trading
➤ No longer chase 50x/100x thrills
➤ Return to spot trading, control position size
➤ $BTC / $ETH as core, $ZEC only observing structure and volatility
Regarding the latest market, BTC has reclaimed around $84K, but capital flow has clearly cooled down. On September 28, US spot BTC ETF net inflow was about $31M, far below the previous strong single-day level near $1B; meanwhile, ZEC’s recent volatility has significantly increased, with leveraged liquidations further amplifying price swings.
This week also features important events like PCE, Nonfarm Payrolls, and Micron earnings, with macro volatility likely to continue impacting BTC and altcoins.
This time, it’s not about leverage, it’s about survival.
It’s okay to be slower in spot trading, first control the risk. 🧘♂️
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #BTCETFInflows #BTC #ETH #ZEC #CryptoTrading #SpotOnly On-chain, there were 246 LINK transfers over $100,000, a five-month peak. Such whale activity usually leads the price. The price simultaneously broke through the downtrend line, indicating that funds are exchanging hands at a low level.
However, the technical indicators have not kept up. RSI has already reached the overbought zone, MACD's red bars turned green but are unstable, and MA5 has started crossing below MA10, so short-term digestion is needed. Around 14.74 below lies about 1.33 million shorts liquidation zone, liquidity is concentrated, and the price will most likely first retrace to clear this part. I just parked the car by the roadside to watch this trade, and the overtime notification went off again.
In terms of operation, do not chase highs. Enter long again when a stop-fall signal appears in the 14.74 to 14.82 retracement range, set defense at 14.60, first take profit at 15.20, and if surpassed, look at 15.50.
$LINK
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
@OKX星球 Seeing you all showing off your profit records in the group today, it hurts my heart even more than losing money—I didn’t make any money today!
My courage is still too small; if I had held on, I could have caught some profits. I’m still too timid, wanting to run as soon as I lose money.
No, family. When it rises, you shout short; when it falls, you start shouting long again. $ZEC is driving everyone crazy!
ZEC’s ups and downs today have made the planet’s chat group even livelier than the market.
A couple of days ago, when it touched around 1695, the planet was flipped over—there were more short posts than posts about gains. 1550 was said to be too high, 1600 was said to be even more reason to short, and 1697 was said to be the point it should crash. Some added positions after losing, some reopened after blowing up, like they had a grudge against this coin.
Now, it’s dropped nearly 10% in 24 hours, hovering just above 1400. The shorts have started posting screenshots, and the longs are cursing their own reckless hands. The same group of people who were hoping it would die every day yesterday are now asking if it’s still worth buying today.
I’m quite speechless watching this. It’s not that ZEC is so wild. It’s this market that forces people’s habits out: wanting to go against the trend when it rises, and thinking it’s cheap when it falls. The phrase "follow the trend" is easy to say, but you only remember it when your account is in the green.
So I want to ask, are we bearish or bullish today?U.S. stock earnings season is winding down: Today watch Carnival and CarMax, tomorrow night session focus on Micron
The Q3 earnings season has transitioned from the banking week to the tech tail end. Market expectations for S&P 500 quarterly earnings growth remain in double digits, with technology and energy contributing the most; removing energy lowers the growth rate, and removing technology lowers it further. In other words, this season is still about whether AI capital expenditures can translate into profits.
Today's market already shows some numbers. Carnival's Q3 revenue is about $8.44 billion, better than expected; CarMax's earnings per share are $1.16, significantly above estimates. Consumer and travel sectors beating expectations indicate it's not just chip companies reporting good news. The real tone-setter is Micron after the U.S. market close on September 30: whether storage price increases still reflect data center demand. Options price the volatility of this event at about 10%. Don't automatically map crypto to "buy more when earnings are good." U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are the real switches for the night session.PCE is the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve.
The market expects the core PCE year-on-year in August to remain around 3.3%, with a month-on-month change of about 0.3%, overall still above the Fed's 2% target.
If PCE exceeds expectations: the US dollar may strengthen, gold, non-USD currencies, and high-valuation assets are likely to come under pressure, and BTC, ETH, and US tech stocks may experience increased short-term volatility.
If it is below expectations: the market may breathe a sigh of relief, and risk assets have a chance to rebound in the short term.
If it basically meets expectations: the market may continue to fluctuate, waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls to choose a direction.
One point to note: this year the PCE calculation method has been adjusted, and some components may be technically revised downward, so do not only look at whether the year-on-year number "decreases," but also check if the month-on-month and core components truly show cooling.
ADP is often called the "small nonfarm," mainly reflecting changes in private sector employment.
It does not completely align with nonfarm payrolls and sometimes even moves in the opposite direction, so ADP alone should not be used as a trading basis.
But ADP is useful for retail investors because it gives the market an early sentiment:
Stronger than expected: the market may worry in advance that nonfarm payrolls will also be strong, the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets tend to be pressured first.
Weaker than expected: the market may start trading "employment slowdown," and in the short term, this is not necessarily negative for mixed risk/safe-haven assets like gold and BTC.
Close to expectations: the market will most likely continue to wait for Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
In short: tomorrow, first see if PCE shows inflation cooling, while ADP is just a rehearsal; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key to deciding short-term sentiment.ETH has started to decline again, hitting 2744 but not going up, then dropping directly. It may not reach the key level a second time. The daily candle looks very ugly, breaking away from the four-hour consolidation, making a four-hour downtrend highly likely.Three looming threats hanging over crypto assets
1- The surge in long-term US Treasury yields will not only act as a deleveraging force but also severely compress the space for risk assets like stocks, gold, and crypto
2- A rate hike by the Fed in October is basically a done deal; the PCE data and employment figures released this week are very likely to point towards a rate increase
3- If Trump can't handle the situation with Iran before the midterm elections, the Democrats are very likely to take control of the Senate (currently, this party is not as crypto-friendly as many think)
Of course, I personally hope for a big pullback so I can add to my position 🌝
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 A sharp V-shaped recovery does not automatically mean the bottom is confirmed. One strong bounce can simply be a relief rally, especially after a violent liquidation move. Look at $ZEC carefully. It fell from around $1,690 to nearly $1,360, wiping out more than $300 in a short period. Now it has recovered toward $1,430–$1,450, and suddenly everyone is talking about a new bullish trend? I’m not convinced yet. The bigger picture still has several problems: - The recent sell-off exposed heavy whale🚀 $XDP / USDT TGE Surge: $+16.49\%$ Gain on Launch Day!$XDP (Doppler Finance) made a strong entry on OKX Spot, ranking #4 among new listings! After spiking to an initial peak of $0.032302, the token is consolidating nicely around $0.0254 with over $21.7M in 24h trading volume.📊 Key Levels:• Resistance: $0.0264 / $0.0323• Support: $0.0200 / $0.0175A little brother in the $WLD group just privately messaged me and asked a question that stumped me.
"Bro, I chased at $7.5, now I'm at a floating loss, should I cut?"
I asked if he consulted me before chasing. He said no, just saw the hype on the trending list.
I threw the data at him: $WLD rose 6.4% in 24 hours, 12.9% in 7 days, but volume is only 0.7 times the average. Look carefully, the price is rising sharply, but volume hasn’t kept up at all. This is a fake rally, not real capital entering to buy.
My plan: I won’t chase, nor will I dump. For this kind of volume-price divergence rebound, I can try a small position to test the waters. If I lose, I accept it, but I will never bet my whole stake. $WLD is a sector coin; no matter how good the story sounds, when it cuts, it shows no mercy—halving your position is the mildest outcome.
Those chasing high must bear their own positions. $WLD $WLD World Foundation just completed a $49 million institutional private placement (OTC). The project team sold some tokens to big investors in exchange for cash, with the stipulation that these tokens cannot be sold within one year.
Let's see what this means for the market:
What is OTC (Over-The-Counter)?
It's not a public token sale: This $49 million was not sold directly on exchanges to the public but was privately negotiated as a bulk transaction with institutions and large investors (such as top venture capital firms like Pantera and Bain Capital).
Minimal direct impact on the market: Since it bypasses the public market, it won't trigger panic selling like a direct dump on an exchange.
What is the "1-year lock-up period"?
It means a "no selling within one year" promise: This is equivalent to the project issuing a "sale restriction" to the institutions (e.g., Pantera) that received the tokens, requiring them to lock up these WLD tokens for one year without selling.
Short-term positive, long-term uncertain: In the short term, this removes concerns that institutions will immediately dump tokens, so after the news, WLD rose by 4.78%. But in the long term, it means that after one year (e.g., in 2027), the market may suddenly face selling pressure of $49 million, which could be negative. Eating麻 eating coma eating dizzy carbon
As expected, I finally made it through!
Big coin $BTC and second coin $ETH have been watched so closely today that my eyes hurt!
I was just thinking about one question: currently clearly bearish, so why is market sentiment so high that it can't be suppressed?
Finally, the bears have made a breakthrough. The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen for the sixth consecutive trading day, reaching 5.595%, a new high since 2002.
It's strange that it keeps rising under such extreme bearish conditions. Could it really be a divine bull market?!
For now, I continue to short and will decide whether to close the position after the heavy news this Friday!
From the current situation, it's just a back-and-forth shock between bulls and bears. Everyone, pay attention to position selection! #10年期美债收益率突破5% Macro Background: The "Hold Your Breath" Before PCE
Tomorrow night (September 30), the August PCE data will be released, with market expectations at 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Citi expects a significant downward revision in core PCE, leaning dovish, but since the market has already priced this in, the actual impact is expected to be quite limited.
The real issue lies in the uncertainty over whether there will be a rate hike in October. Citi believes this has "highly concentrated on the single variable of September core CPI." Even if PCE is dovish, it is unlikely to substantially shake the market's pricing of over a 50% chance of a rate hike in October. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 $CORE
In the phase of volume contraction and bottom consolidation, what signals does CORE need to reverse the weakness?
Security sharing and ecological applications provide the narrative, but a true reversal requires simultaneous recovery in spot volume, users, and revenue.
If the rebound lacks volume and the lows continue to move down, I will remain defensive; only a volume surge reclaiming the platform will change the judgment.BTC继续在 8.3万附近磨，10年美债收益率还在5%以上，市场都在等PCE和非农。 简单说： 币圈想反弹，宏观还没下班。 今日实盘： 累计收益率 +1.42% 30盈利 / 5亏损 胜率 85.71% 盈亏比 1.69:1 资金规模变大，接下来更值得看的是： 同一套策略，放大本金以后还能不能保持原来的节奏。 #实盘交易 #量化交易$ETH ETH looked like it was about to crash this morning, but once 2700 was broken, it broke quickly. Many people just wanted to cut losses but were pulled back near the cost line.
BTC isn’t doing well either; 82500 is holding strong, but 84000–85000 lacks volume for a breakout, making the short-term trend look more like a range-bound shakeout rather than a reversal.
The most frustrating thing now isn’t the drop, but the "cut losses just to be pulled back, chase just to be shaken."
If it returns near 2660, I would prioritize position and mindset: reduce a bit if you can’t hold, don’t turn the shakeout into a chain of stop-losses; around BTC 84500, only try small positions, wait for a break below to reduce more—it’s safer than betting full position on direction.
This ETH breakout looks more like a pulse caused by liquidity, ETF inflows, and tightening supply, not a sudden surge in on-chain usage, so don’t rush to treat the rebound as a bull market restart.
Next, focus on three things: whether ETH can hold 2626–2700, whether BTC can break out with volume above 84000–85000, and whether macro data will amplify volatility again.
Are you planning to reduce positions near 2660, or hold on waiting for a breakout? Share your position and stop-loss levels in the comments.
This is not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile, so please manage your risk.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 16. Learn to use GitHub and understand excellent projects.
17. Learn to use AI programming tools like Cursor and Codex.
18. Create your own small product, website, or tool.
19. Develop a skill that can generate long-term income, such as sales writing, design, or programming.
20. Save 30% of your income every month to build your first pot of gold.
21. Learn to keep accounts and know where every penny is spent.
22. Establish awareness and allocation of assets in US dollars; don’t only focus on RMB assets.
23. Read an industry report every week instead of just scrolling through short videos.
24. Spend 1 hour daily learning English: persist in searching and reading in English.
25. Learn to obtain first-hand information and cultivate a global perspective.
26. Get to know 5 people who are better than you and maintain long-term communication.
27. Avoid ineffective socializing; reserve time for learning and growth.
28. Complete a small project every month to continuously build your portfolio.
29. Develop habits of going to bed early, exercising, and getting sunlight; treat your body as your greatest capital. Prediction markets are using incentives to recruit people, and the CFTC is now investigating this matter.
To be honest, my first reaction is not regulation, but frustration.
Because I am familiar with this script. Back in the day, when people were farming airdrops and points, platforms threw money around enthusiastically; but once users started investing real money, the rules could be changed or stopped at will. This time it's prediction markets, with a similar playbook—using rewards to boost volume and hyping it up in promotions.
The CFTC's main concern is one point: misleading advertising.
Simply put, they fear platforms might package "rewards" as "guaranteed profits" and trick newcomers into taking the losses.
This issue doesn't have much impact on the market; prediction markets are still small in scale. But it is a signal that regulators are starting to watch these kinds of user acquisition models.
What to watch next? Whether any platform gets named. If none are named, it's just a warning; if named, then real trouble begins.
Let's wait for this step.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ZEC Crypto is slightly green ahead of tonight’s key events, but the move still lacks strong volume confirmation.
$BTC holds $84K, $ETH is near $2.72K, and $SOL is following the rebound.
The Treasury auction and macro data could decide the next move, so expect higher volatility. 📊
$BTC #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh
#DailyOrbit BTC is now at 83333, ETH at 2688, both up less than 1% in 24 hours.
Honestly, this market just looks annoying.
$BTC has been hovering around 83000 for so long, neither going up nor down. Want to go long but afraid of the top, want to short but afraid of missing out. Holding a position feels uncertain, being out of the market feels like missing something.
$ETH is the same. When BTC rises, it moves a bit; when BTC stops, it’s the most obedient. 2688, I’ve been watching this price for two days, moved to a different level and then came back.
This is the feeling of the market today: it won’t let you profit, nor let you lose, just wears you down, tests your mindset, waiting for you to act recklessly.
This kind of market is the worst, no rise, no fall, and in the end, decisions are all based on emotions, only to get slapped in the face.Bitwise officially launches the Bitwise NEAR ETF (ticker: $NRR), the first spot NEAR ETP in the United States, providing investors with direct exposure to the NEAR protocol.
Key highlights:
Offers in-house proprietary staking services to maximize NEAR staking yields of approximately 5% (data as of September 25, 2026, 30-day annualized average).
Positioned as an investment tool for the "emerging intelligent economy."
Bitwise emphasizes that proprietary staking brings greater transparency, security, and institutional-grade regulation. With the integration of AI and crypto, $NRR allows investors to conveniently position themselves in this leading network.
$NEAR Bitcoin’s $85K Test
Bitcoin slipped below $85,000, and now everyone is trying to figure out why.
But I think the question itself may be slightly off.
The common market narrative is that a large number of holders have their cost basis around $84K–$85K, making this zone an important support area. If BTC breaks below it, the setup could become more fragile.
But there’s another way to look at it.
What does a heavy concentration of cost bases actually tell us?
#DailyOrbit