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Damn, outside there's again talk about raising the Bitcoin allocation ratio to 40%, with overwhelmingly bullish sentiment everywhere.
$BTC current price is 83629.8, the daily chart is grinding back and forth at a high level. After previously hitting 87374.3 and pulling back, it has been stuck cycling within a range.
Take these institutional views with a grain of salt; don't use them directly as a basis for opening positions. When they say 40% allocation, that's a long-term asset planning perspective for institutions, which is completely different from our short-term futures trading. The daily MACD momentum continues to weaken, the bulls' effort to push higher is clearly less than the previous wave, but the mid-term trend support is still firmly holding below, so the big trend hasn't turned bearish yet.
My short position around 84000 is fluctuating between profit and loss repeatedly, sometimes making a few thousand U, but when the market pulls up slightly, it immediately gives back the gains. This high-level choppy market is the worst; all the news is bullish, retail traders get hot-headed and chase the highs, but the price drops right after the spike, trapping them in losing positions.
Many friends see big players speak and rush in full position with a hot head, but the big players' position sizes and tolerance for drawdowns are on a completely different level from ordinary traders. They can hold long-term, but we futures traders can't withstand several back-and-forth spikes.
At this point, don't let outside opinions cloud your judgment; a rise doesn't mean an immediate new high, and good news doesn't mean an instant breakout. In a high-level consolidation phase, blindly chasing highs is very costly.
This is just market observation and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC
#Ric Edelman Bitcoin Allocation View Interpretation
#BTC Daily Chart High-Level Consolidation Observation🔥Family, today's market for the three major mainstream coins is a large-scale battle between bulls and bears.
$BTC around 84000, the Fed's dovish stance just sparked some optimism, but large on-chain transfers are pouring cold water again.
📉 So don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Chasing the rise easily turns spectators into bag holders.
$ETH around 2700, a lot was said about the upgrade benefits, fees dropped, but the price didn't really soar.
🧐 The story can be very appealing, but the wallet is the most honest. Without capital inflow, no matter how lively the ecosystem is, it's just self-entertainment.
$SOL around 120, the Meme hype hasn't faded yet, a local dog can multiply a hundred times in a day, but the next day might make you rethink the risks.
🚨 Non-farm payrolls and PCE data are still looming overhead, volatility could expand at any time.
💰 My strategy is simple: keep cash, small positions if itchy, don't gamble your living expenses on the next candlestick.
Survival is always more important than guessing every market move.
Brothers, today are you spectators or already being ground down by bulls and bears? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Ansem stated on X on September 28 that this cycle will see a true NFT revival, with the focus not on artworks but on experiments in proxies, ownership, and new issuance models. Data breakdown: CryptoSlam shows that as of the week ending September 19, NFT sales totaled about $37.54 million, down 15.3% week-over-week, with the $ETH chain leading, but the number of buying and selling addresses doubled. The doubling of addresses alongside a drop in amount indicates smaller individual transactions, more like activity driven by low-price minting rather than capital inflow. The overlooked downside: demand for new issuance models is unproven; Ansem's influence itself may generate short-term hype; the participation base is extremely low, so slight rebounds can be misread as trends. Judgment: weekly sales are unlikely to return above $60 million in the next four weeks, with narrative preceding data. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. 📉 ZEC最新盘面 当前价格约 1,418 美元，过去24小时出现明显回撤。此前在 1,625 美元附近布局空单，目前浮盈约 41%。从盘口来看，上方卖压依然存在，而下方主动买盘并不算强，成交量也没有同步放大。 为什么ZEC经常出现“涨得快、跌得也快”？ 核心还是杠杆资金影响较大。此前上涨过程中，合约市场活跃度明显高于现货，部分涨幅来自空头平仓和杠杆资金推动。一旦新增买盘无法继续接力，杠杆仓位反而可能成为回落时的加速器。 📊 大盘环境也不算理想 BTC目前在 83,200美元附近震荡，ETH、SOL同步承压，市场整体风险偏好有所降温。短线资金如果不能重新回流，ZEC这种前期涨幅较大的资产波动可能会进一步放大。 从技术面观察： - MACD高位出现偏空信号 - RSI从超买区域持续回落 - 成交量逐渐萎缩 - 冲高后价格重新跌回关键区间 因此目前更需要关注 1,400—1,380美元 一带的承接情况。如果继续失守，下一步可以观察 1,330—1,300美元区域；如果重新站回 1,500美元上方，则需要重新评估空头逻辑。 另外，本周市场还将迎来 美国非农就业数据和PCE通胀数据，宏观数Ajian emphasized once again that stablecoins will be an important component of the USD 2.0 system, far more than just simple on-chain dollars or crypto products; the real evolution of RWA is not just putting stocks or any traditional assets on-chain, but continuing to carry out financial activities after the assets are on-chain. Understanding these two points will help you see why Ajian says Ethena's inclusion of tokenized US stocks and stock perpetuals into the USDe system is something quite worth paying attention to.
In traditional finance, basis trading involves buying spot → shorting futures → earning funding rates. Now Ethena is trying to incorporate stocks, tokenized stocks, and stock perpetuals into this structure. If this model succeeds, the future competition in DeFi metrics may shift from TVL to who can bring more traditional financial returns on-chain.
Therefore, although Ethena is reducing some growth incentives, it is still expected to unlock about $46.9M $ENA on October 5. With commercialization benefits and supply-side bearish factors occurring simultaneously, I remain optimistic about $ENA.Bitcoin spot ETF has had net inflows for eight consecutive days, but the price is falling instead of rising,
yesterday night it almost couldn't hold above 82,000,
who exactly is selling "digital gold"?
Oh, gold has dropped more than 3%, so never mind.
$BTC $ETH Great positive news keeps coming one after another!
Another $113 million worth of ETH staked! SharpLink is still aggressively increasing its "yield-bearing positions" in ETH.
On September 29, according to Lookonchain monitoring, SharpLink staked another 42,074 ETH, valued at about $113 million.
Currently, SharpLink holds about 892,100 ETH, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, having accumulated 27,945 ETH in staking rewards, worth about $75 million.
What truly deserves attention is not just this $113 million, but that SharpLink's strategy is becoming clearer: buy ETH, stake ETH, continuously earn ETH rewards, and then roll those rewards back into the asset pool.
This means it is not simply betting on ETH price appreciation, but treating ETH as an asset that can continuously generate native yield.
If more publicly listed companies replicate this ETH Treasury model in the future, the market demand logic for ETH may shift from "buy and wait for price increase" to "hold + stake + continuously accumulate."
Of course, the $2.4 billion position itself also implies significant book risks from price volatility.
So the key points to watch next are: whether SharpLink continues to increase holdings, and whether institutional ETH staking scale can keep expanding. $ETH stuck at 2670, but institutions haven't stopped — latest data breakdown for you
Intraday range 2635–2721, slight 24H decline, the candlestick chart makes you want to shut down your computer. But data beyond the price is much more honest.
① Institutions are quietly accumulating
Ethereum treasury company Bitmine increased its holdings by 17,362 ETH last week, with total holdings surpassing 6 million ETH, about 4.9% of the total ETH supply. About 84% of its holdings are staked, valued at approximately $13.7 billion. Meanwhile, the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with about $690 million inflow last week, and BlackRock's ETHA attracted $326 million in a single week. The price hasn't risen, but buyers have been consistently active.
② Exchange ETH is almost emptied out
Santiment data shows only 3.49% of the total ETH supply remains on tracked exchanges, with an outflow of 1.16% since June 1. Exchange ETH balances have dropped to about 6.06 million ETH, down approximately 73% from the June 2020 peak of 22.9 million. The chips that can be dumped anytime are rapidly decreasing.
③ But short-term technicals are indeed weak
Daily RSI continues to decline, forming a "bearish divergence" with price, indicating weakening upward momentum. The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, Bollinger Bands are narrowing between the upper band at $2725 and lower band at $2650, volatility is drying up. 2,742 is the first near-term resistance, with a stronger supply zone at 2,820.
④ Key price levels
· Support: 2,660 is a short-term bull must-hold zone; only if the daily close is above 2,750 can the $3,000 space be considered open.
Long-term supply is tightening, institutions are continuously accumulating, but short-term technicals have yet to give a confirmation signal. If 2,750 is not broken, don't rush to call a breakout.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Shorted $ETH at 2782, ran away at 2706.
Made 223U, now it’s dropped to 2666.
The moment I closed the position, I knew it would fall.
But I was too scared, afraid the profit would retreat, so I handed the chips back to the market makers.
Then look at $UNI
Long at 5.744, never exited at the peak of 10.95.
Now it’s dropped back to 8.59.
Watching the profit drop every day is even more painful than being stuck in a loss. Today I briefly looked at the $AAVE TokenLogic data for Q3, and there are several data points worth noting.
First is the growth rate of V4: deposits increased from $232 million to $1.29 billion, about a 5.6x increase; active loans rose from $76 million to $380 million, about a 5x increase.
Another point of interest is BTC-related collateral. Among various collaterals in V3, only this category saw quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reaching $4.41 million in Q3, higher than $3.92 million in Q2.
Revenue is also expanding: Prime V4 grew from about $22 million to $77 million, and Prime V3 also increased from about $230 million to $357 million.
This indicates one thing: the growth of V4 has not significantly squeezed V3; Aave seems to be expanding its business scale simultaneously.
V4’s capital scale is growing rapidly, real lending demand is catching up, and the mature Prime V3 continues to grow.
Q3 is not yet fully over, but what’s worth watching about AAVE now is not just "whether V4 is growing," but whether the entire protocol’s scale and revenue can expand together.
If this growth trend continues, I believe that in this bull market, AAVE’s push toward a $10 billion market cap deserves close attention.$UNI's sellable chips in exchanges are increasing rapidly.
UNI reserves in exchanges have risen to about 113.9 million,
setting a record high.
Binance alone holds over 73 million;
some trading days see inflows reaching 14 times the daily burn amount.
Simply put,
burning slowly reduces supply, but the large holders' positions in exchanges act as a "reservoir" that can dump anytime.
$UNI futures will only launch on October 19,
so the short-term movement is mostly driven by sentiment.
What truly determines the direction is:
whether exchange reserves can start to decline,
and whether the burn volume can continue to expand. 一句话：投资是管理风险，赌博是管理希望。 你每天看K线、盯群消息、追热点、开合约，觉得自己在“做交易”。但你有没有算过一笔账：过去一年，你交易了多少次？手续费交了多少？爆仓了几次？最后账户是变多了，还是变少了？ 如果答案是“越做越少”，那大概率不是市场的问题，是你把赌博当成了投资。 第一层：投资和赌博，分界线在哪？ 不是看你买什么，而是看你怎么买。 投资有三个特征：有正期望、有风险预算、有时间耐心。你研究资产、控制仓位、接受波动、等周期兑现。 赌博也有三个特征：负期望、情绪驱动、追求短期结果。你追涨杀跌、听KOL喊单、上高倍杠杆、All in一把。 买BTC可以是投资，也可以是赌博。你定投现货、拿三年，那是投资。你开50倍合约、赌今晚涨跌，那就是赌博。资产只是道具，行为才定义性质。 第二层：你在加密市场做的这5件事，就是赌博。 第一，高倍杠杆合约。 2026年2月7日，ETH单日暴跌23%，58万散户被强制平仓，清算金额42亿美元。杠杆倍数超过20倍的合约账户，几乎全军覆没。现货跌了，币还在。合约爆了，什么都没了。 第二，追Meme和土狗。 Solana链上304,161个活跃钱包，9目前 $BTC 的看涨与看跌 Gamma 敞口依然比较接近，市场整体处于相对中性的状态。这种结构意味着，一旦价格突破关键区域，Gamma 对冲可能放大波动，向上或向下都可能出现快速行情。 📌 我目前围绕 $88,000 附近准备了两套交易方案： 🔹 方案A：向上突破 若 BTC 放量站稳 $88K，并进一步突破 $89.5K，重点观察 $92K–$94K 区域。 🔹 方案B：冲高回落 如果 $88K 附近再次出现明显卖压，则关注 $84K–$85K 支撑；失守后，行情可能进一步测试 $82K。 与此同时，市场正在关注 美股与宏观数据带来的波动传导，而 #MicronEarningsAhead 也可能成为科技股及风险资产短线情绪的一个扰动因素。 现在最重要的不是提前猜方向，而是等待价格给出确认信号。 $BTC #MicronEarningsAheadThe surge that couldn't last more than three seconds suddenly quieted down; after all, it was just a pipe dream.
A couple of days ago, $BEAT suddenly spiked to around 0.12, even making it to the trending list. I thought there would be a sustained reversal, but unexpectedly it was immediately suppressed by the big players.
The previous trapped positions haven't been fully released yet; it will take a few months to grind and wash out the market, making a short-term breakthrough difficult.
Historically, this asset has a relatively fast cycle, with an expected cyclical surge about every six months. It's best to watch and hold back in the short term.
This is my personal live trading opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
ദ്ദി◝ ⩊ ◜.ᐟETF has been buying for eight consecutive days, with only $31 million purchased yesterday.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $31 million yesterday.
This marks the eighth consecutive trading day of net inflows.
How this number is calculated:
$31 million is the net difference between all buy orders and sell orders on that day.
It doesn't mean someone dumped $31 million all at once.
Who is buying continuously:
They are buying fund shares, and the fund then buys $BTC.
So this money ultimately flows into the spot market.
Eight consecutive days of positive net inflows indicate that during these eight days, sellers were consistently fewer than buyers.
But $31 million is not a large amount relative to the $BTC market.
Looking back, the total over eight days is just a few hundred million dollars.
It's lively, but the splash isn't that big.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC #BTC
October is just two days away, historically the strongest month for Bitcoin.
In the past 13 years, October has closed higher 10 times, with an average return of about 19%.
This data indeed supports the "Uptober" narrative, but October 2025 serves as a reminder: even though ETFs saw inflows of $4.7 billion and Bitcoin hit a new high of $126,000, it ultimately closed down about 4% due to macro shocks.
Seasonality can support trends, but it can't withstand systemic shocks. #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
Strategy bought 1,665 BTC last week at an average price of $85,681, spending 143 million. Strive also bought 1,107 BTC. BitMine bought 17,362 ETH, with holdings surpassing 6 million. Corporate treasuries continue to buy at high levels, using financing tools from common stock to preferred stock—anything usable is being utilized.
But BTC dropped 2.91% today, and treasury buying didn’t support the price. Why? The high interest rate environment remains unchanged. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.27%, the 30-year is 5.55%, and rate hike expectations persist. Treasuries buy coins through financing, and with such high financing costs, the sustainability of this model is questionable. If coin prices fall or financing windows tighten, these buy orders could stop at any time. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I have already exited my long BTC position at 84,000, locking in a 1,200-point profit, and am now in cash. PCE and non-farm payroll data will be released this week; no directional bets before the data. Treasury accumulation is a long-term logic and cannot change the short-term macro pressure.
Wait for a pullback near 82,000 to stabilize before considering light buying. No chasing highs or panic selling—wait for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Sisters, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the leverage to clear before making a move.
There might still be a short-term dip, the overall trend isn't broken, but timing the buy point is more critical than the direction.
Right now, it looks more like "clear leverage first, then push the market up." $ETH has about $32.12 million long positions accumulated in the 2614–2632 range, with a liquidation cluster near 2613. Watch 2630 closely in the short term; if it breaks down, targets are 2622, 2614, or even 2550. However, futures positions have decreased by about 500,000 contracts over four days, and leverage ratio has returned to March lows, indicating active deleveraging, not a trend reversal. Wait for liquidation to finish and price to stabilize above 2630 before adding longs for more stability.
$ZEC has a market cap of about 26.4 billion, support at 1550, and if broken, look to 1500; resistance at 1600 and 1685. The trend is intact; avoid chasing during high volatility periods.
$SNDK support is at 1740, strong support at 1680; resistance at 1815 and 1900. The NAND demand logic for AI servers remains, but after consecutive gains, valuation is not low; better to buy on dips than chase highs.
Strategy: Aggressive traders can take light positions; others should wait for a dip. You can try a first position but avoid going all in at once. Comfortable to add more later; most likely, we need to wait for the whales to be swept out first. This week has key data like Nonfarm Payrolls, PCE, and Micron earnings; volatility radar is already sounding. Patience is more valuable than courage.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% The most reassuring thing in the crypto world is sometimes not how much your account has grown, but that withdrawals can be processed normally.
After Bitget's recent security incident, withdrawals are being resumed in batches by coin type. According to the official schedule, ETH withdrawals are set for today (September 29) at 16:00 Beijing time, USDT at 16:00 tomorrow, and other coins, fiat currencies, and P2P on October 2. The actual reopening depends on the platform, so don't interpret "resuming in batches" as a full recovery.
The platform stated that the protection fund will cover the losses from this incident, and now it's a matter of the recovery progress and payout situation.
This also reminds me: convenient trading is one thing, but putting all your assets in one place is another. Earning a bit more regularly is good, but when withdrawals are suspended, you realize how important it is to have free access to your own money. #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？
After the rate hike in September, the October scenario is being debated again
CME data shows about a 54.2% chance of another 25 basis points hike in October, basically a coin toss
Barkin said over 60% of PCE subcomponents have year-on-year increases above 3%, but he didn’t specify how much more tightening is needed
Collins believes the risk of inflation staying above 2% is rising, and Musalem says tightening may still be necessary
Officials’ remarks only reflect personal views, not the final decision
But as long as inflation isn’t fully under control, the Fed won’t ease up, and risk asset valuations will remain suppressed
So my judgment is, don’t guess what they want, just watch CPI, PCE, and employment trends
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储加息 #利率路径$ETH at this position, I really feel like bottom-fishing! BlackRock is still buying, but retail investors are almost wiped out.
ETH has been playing pretty nasty these past two days, it didn’t stay long above 2720, then got smashed all the way down to 2635. After a hard rebound, it started to stall again. Many people in the group are shouting to catch at 2600, but I think now we need to closely watch the capital flow.
Yesterday, BlackRock’s ETHA had a net inflow of $15.35 million, with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $13.299 billion. 21Shares’ TETH also saw an inflow of $1.74 million. The price looks ugly, but there’s still capital entering the ETF side.
However, BTC itself hasn’t stabilized yet, so ETH wanting to take off independently isn’t that easy.
Currently, I’m watching two levels: 2635 and 2672. If 2635 gets broken down again, I’ll wait to see if there’s support around 2600; if it can hold above 2672 again, the next step is to see if it can take down 2700. Only if it truly breaks through 2720 will I consider adding more positions.
Also, ETH/BTC, I haven’t given up observing it. Just seeing ETH rise by tens of dollars isn’t meaningful; I’ll be more confident when the exchange rate strengthens as well.
With the current market, I’d rather start with a small position to test the waters than go straight into high leverage. So many longs have already been washed out, who knows how many more rounds the whales plan to play?
Anyway, my idea hasn’t changed: keep looking for opportunities to go long on ETH. First wait for it to reclaim 2672, don’t let it pull a couple of bullish candles to trick me into catching the falling knife again. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 📉 Nothing worked today — stocks, bonds and gold all fell on the same day
S&P 500 down 0.8%, Nasdaq down 0.9%, gold down nearly 4% to its lowest since early August $XAUT
And bonds sold off hard: the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23%, its highest since 2007, with the 30-year at 5.55%
Oil is still above $100 as the US-Iran standoff drags on, and the dollar moved higher alongside yields
$BTC The real determinant of direction this time is not how deep the altcoins have fallen, but whether $BTC can hold 82K and retake 85K. Current public market prices are about $BTC 83,371, $ETH 2,674.5, $SOL 118.1; $BTC has risen slightly by about 0.25% in 24 hours, $ETH up about 0.9%, but $SOL still down about 0.8%, which looks more like capital defending the majors rather than risk being fully cleared.
The trigger condition on the upside is: a 4H close back above 85K with increased volume, which would turn the consolidation into a breakout; the downside invalidation level is: a close below 82K, which would require reassessing the rebound structure. The 82.7K–84K range is considered a middle noise zone; intraday spikes will not be taken alone as directional decisions.
My personal market view is to wait for the key level decision first, not to chase orders in the middle of the range; if 85K holds with volume, then follow the trend, if 82K fails, then reduce risk first. There is no publicly verified catalyst opportunity in the window, so I will not expand on specific projects for now. Are you more focused on the 85K breakout or the 82K defense? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.Have US institutional funds been rushing into $BTC and $ETH these past few days???
ETH ETF finally has funds coming back, is $17.1 million just the beginning?
On September 29, according to Farside Investors data, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $17.1 million yesterday.
This number isn't particularly large, but the signal is more worth noting than the amount: after experiencing fund fluctuations, if the ETH ETF net inflows reoccur consecutively, it indicates that institutional demand for ETH allocation may be recovering.
Especially now with BTC oscillating at a high level, if funds continue rotating from BTC to ETH and high Beta assets, ETH ETF fund flows could become an important confirming indicator.
So in the short term, don't just focus on whether ETH's price rises; focus on three things: whether ETF net inflows can sustain, whether ETH can break out with volume, and whether BTC funds are starting to diffuse into ETH.
$17.1 million alone can't change the trend, but if large net inflows continue to appear afterward, the market's capital logic for ETH will be clearly different. 💧 SUI GOT HIT HARD 📉
SUI dropped sharply after its recent rally, with Sept. 28 closing around $1.17 after trading as low as $1.13.
🛡️ $1.13 = key support
⚡ $1.20 = first reclaim
🚀 $1.26 = recovery test
Don't chase the bounce. Let price prove it. 👀🔥$ETH shorts currently do have a bit of an advantage, but I'm not rushing to celebrate yet.
I opened a short at 2715.69, the price has come down to 2654.75, currently floating profit of 6.73%.
Also shorted SOL, entered at 120.95, around 116.57 now, floating profit 10.86%.
📉 Why is the market biased bearish?
Repeated attempts above 2700 failed to break through effectively, every price rally lacks sustained follow-through, and technical indicators show momentum weakening.
🧨 Adding macro pressure: the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%, ETF fund flows are weak, and the entire crypto market is under synchronized pressure.
BTC, SOL, and ZEC are all weakening, and ETH finding short-term independent strength is not easy.
🚨 So now I’m focusing more on 2650 and 2600.
If these levels continue to break, the short side could open up further; if there’s suddenly a strong volume reclaiming 2700, shorts will need to reassess.
🧠 Shorting is not about guessing a drop, but following price confirmation.
Do you still dare to chase shorts on ETH here? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ETH has dropped like this, and BlackRock is still buying? I want to see how long the shorts can keep the pressure!
Lately, ETH's trend has really been annoying me, surging to 2720, then crashing back down to over 2600. It barely pulls up a bit, and the shorts come out to cause trouble again, repeatedly shaking people’s patience.
But today, seeing the ETF data, I got a bit interested again. BlackRock's ETHA had a net inflow of $15.35 million yesterday, with a total of $13.299 billion accumulated. 21Shares' TETH also saw an inflow of $1.74 million.
BlackRock is still continuously allocating, so I definitely need to stay alert. But institutional buying is one thing; short-term drops will happen regardless. Don’t blindly go long just because of capital inflows.
Just checked the market; ETH is around 2663, the 15-minute MA20 is pressing at 2672, and MACD is just starting to recover. I plan to first see if 2672 can be taken down; after breaking through, I’ll watch 2700, then 2720 above that.
If 2635 gets smashed through again, I won’t fight the market; I’ll pull back and wait to see if there’s an opportunity near 2600.
I’m also watching ETH/BTC. ETH rebounding on its own isn’t surprising; when it can outperform BTC, that’s when I’ll be more willing to expect more from the altcoin market afterward.
Anyway, I still want to go long on ETH now, but definitely won’t chase. BlackRock can hold after buying; I’m trading contracts and can’t compete with them on who lasts longer.
Let the market toss around first. If 2672 really holds steady, I’ll jump in and fight hard with it.At 4 PM today, Bitget will resume ETH withdrawals
At 3 PM today, OKX launched a special flash profit event exclusively for ETH, releasing 400,000 USDT as rewards
OKX has held more than 30 flash profit events, but this is the first time for an event targeting a single asset like this. The purpose is obvious: competition between exchanges is just this straightforward and unpretentiousThe scariest part about the "tens of thousands of AI security incidents" is not that machines suddenly awaken, but that permission management is still stuck at the toy testing stage.
The related investigation involves bypassing protections, escaping isolation environments, accessing real websites, and finding alternative paths on their own. Anthropic also retrospectively scanned about 481 million records and found that the model sometimes ignores evidence that it has already entered the real internet and continues to take risky actions to complete tasks. This is more like an employee with strong abilities and rigid goals but who cannot distinguish between the lab and production environments.
Therefore, the solution cannot rely solely on the model's promise to "behave next time." What truly helps are least privilege, network isolation, operation approval, complete logging, and external switches that can be cut off at any time. Enterprises letting Agents access email, code repositories, and payment systems while entrusting security to prompts is somewhat of a gamble. The more capable the model is, the more carefully the keys given to it must be distributed one by one.
#OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件 $ONE is really awesome, in just these three days, the shorts have already paid 10% in funding fees. OKX is also shameless, saying delisting is like talking nonsense.$ZEC slaughtered like pigs zec
The take-profit in the chart was hit early, then it kept dropping and dropping…
Withdrew the profits first, quietly spending the National Day #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The project team members were sighing in the group chat a couple of days ago, saying that this market can't even make a splash.
But then, looking back, money has actually been flowing in continuously.
Yesterday alone, it was 31 million, marking the eighth consecutive day.
Looking at a single day, it's really not much, even a bit meager.
But if you draw it as a line, eight days without interruption, this is not something retail investors can do.
To put it plainly, institutions are slowly accumulating quietly.
What are retail investors doing? They're anxious, waiting for a pullback, doubting if this wave is real.
I understand this mindset because I've been through it too.
But money doesn't lie; eight consecutive days of net inflow means someone is more eager than you.
What you should focus on now is not the price, but whether this string of numbers can continue.
If it breaks, it means the sentiment has peaked. If it continues, then don't scare yourself.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC At noon, I spread out and checked the hourly volume of European and US spot markets — $ETH is around 2676 now, Shanghai opened near 2678 at midnight, the daily high touched 2721, the daily low dipped to 2652, and the half-day price has almost stayed flat at the opening level.
Volume is the key: as of 1 PM today, spot trading volume accumulated about 123 million U, while yesterday in the same 14-hour window it was about 229 million, nearly halving; the two hourly candles from 12 to 1 PM combined only about 10.7 million, clearly showing reduced volume sideways. The futures side remains lively, with perpetual contract trading roughly more than twenty times the spot volume, and open interest still around 1.55 billion. Last week (9/21–9/25), US stock spot Ethereum ETFs recorded about 690 million net inflow, so institutional capital inflow does not match the current spot volume shrinkage.
Short term, I’m watching: whether 2652 can hold, and whether it can regain and stabilize above 2680 / 2700. Don’t rush to chase if volume doesn’t come back; $BTC is around 83400.
Just chatting about data at noon, no trade recommendations. Volatility is high, manage your positions carefully.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Volume #Liquidity #ETFInflow #DataAnalysis #RiskWarning 🔥$ETH's current key level is not 2650, but why it keeps failing to break through 2700.
Short opened at 2715.69, currently at 2654.75, floating profit 6.73%; SOL shorts also have decent floating profits.
📉 Several attempts to break 2700 have failed to hold effectively, indicating that selling pressure above remains obvious.
Technically, MACD momentum continues to contract, stochastic indicator is falling from a high level, and the bulls' short-term push is starting to weaken.
🧨 The macro environment also doesn't provide much comfort for risk assets: the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken 5%, and ETF fund flows also need to be watched.
Looking at the whole market, BTC, SOL, and ZEC are all weak simultaneously, and ETH in the short term seems more like it's following the overall market pressure.
🧱 So my observation sequence is simple:
Can 2650 hold?
Will 2600 be tested?
Can 2700 be firmly reclaimed?
🚨 Protect profits on shorts when there are gains; don't let floating profits turn back into floating losses.
Do you think the next stop is 2600, or will ETH suddenly rebound to 2700? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% [Old Leek Observation] #Gold drops to $4144 #DigitalGold btc
Gold has fallen quite sharply this time. Yesterday it once dropped to around $4,110, with a single-day maximum decline close to 4%.
The reason is actually not complicated. The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, and market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October have clearly intensified. Gold itself does not generate interest.
When the dollar and bond yields both become more attractive, it is normal for funds to withdraw from gold. But what's really interesting is the other side: BTC has not experienced a decline of the same magnitude as gold.
Both are interest-free assets, but recently gold and BTC have started to show a clear divergence in their response to interest rate shocks. The market used to like to call BTC and gold "digital gold" together.
Now the capital logic of these two assets may be increasingly different.
Gold falls, which can actually be used for observationIf $ZEC spikes to 5000,
how many people will get liquidated,
how many will jump off buildings?
MD, there’s no real application, no real narrative,
it's completely a pump-and-dump scheme by the manipulators to scalp retail.
All the chips are in the hands of the manipulators,
if you just don’t buy or catch the falling knife, in the end it only rots in their hands.
Don’t short it either, let the manipulators kill themselves.
Anyway, my advice is,
don’t touch it anymore.How will the market move next?
The market is betting on a 100bp rate hike over the next year, but Morgan Stanley says: not that aggressive!
Morgan Stanley currently expects that after the Fed's rate hike in September, there will be one more hike each in December and March next year, totaling two more hikes. Their research believes that the market's tightening pricing for the next 12 months is already more aggressive than the actual path.
The core variables currently priced by the market are the uncertainties in oil prices, inflation, economic growth, and corporate financing costs, which are continuously pushing up rate hike expectations.
The really interesting part is here: the market is trading on "the Fed becoming more hawkish," but Morgan Stanley believes that once economic data becomes clearer, the actual rate hike magnitude may be lower than current pricing.
This means that short-term risk assets will still bear high interest rate pressure, but if subsequent data does not continue to deteriorate, there is room for the market to revise down rate hike expectations.
For BTC, the biggest variable now is not simply "whether there will be a rate hike," but whether the market-priced 100bp can ultimately be realized. Solana 过去两个月表现明显回暖，价格一度接近 $124，阶段涨幅约 68%。不过，资金面的变化同样值得关注：截至9月25日的一周，美国现货 Solana ETF 净流入创下约 1.88亿美元的新高，其中 Bitwise 的 BSOL 约吸收 1.28亿美元。因此，与其说ETF资金正在明显降温，更准确的说法是：资金仍在流入，但市场正在关注资金集中度和持续性。 ⚡ Alpenglow升级则成为SOL近期另一大催化剂。该升级正在测试中，目标是将交易最终确认时间从约 12.8秒压缩至约150毫秒，如果最终部署顺利，可能进一步强化Solana在高频交易、支付和链上资产等场景的性能叙事。目前150毫秒仍属于目标值，正式主网部署时间仍需以官方进展为准。 📌 接下来重点看： • ETF资金能否保持连续流入 • SOL能否守住 $115–$120 区域 • Alpenglow测试及主网部署进度 • BTC走势是否继续支持高Beta资产 SOL的核心故事正在从单纯的价格反弹，逐渐转向 ETF资金 + 网络升级 + 生态需求 三条主线。 #SOL #Solana #Alpenglow #SOLETF🚨 SHARPLINK JUST STAKED $112.8M IN ETH.
They now hold 892,127 ETH (~$2.4B) and have earned ~$75M in staking rewards.
The bigger shift: corporate ETH treasuries are evolving from passive holdings into yield-generating balance sheets.🔥$ETH The biggest issue right now isn't how much it has dropped, but that no one is stepping in above 2700.
Short opened at 2715.69, currently at 2654.75, floating profit 6.73%.
📉On the SOL side, short opened at 120.95, current price 116.57, floating profit 10.86%. Both directions are currently running as expected.
But what I really focus on is the pressure behind the market:
🧨ETF fund flows are weak, whether institutional funds have returned is very critical.
📊At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5%, market interest rate pressure continues, naturally limiting the rebound space for risk assets.
Technically it is also cooperating:
2700 has been repeatedly tested without success, MACD bars keep shrinking, stochastic indicator is moving down from a high level.
🧱So short-term I remain bearish, first watching if 2650 can continue to break, then observing 2600.
⚠️However, having profitable shorts doesn’t mean you can hold blindly.
When the market gives profits, first learn to protect them.
Brothers, do you think the 2600 level can hold? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ETH Long ETH lost 2,376 dollars, all from holding the position too long
On the morning of September 27, I opened a long ETH position at 2,694 with 50x full margin, and closed it on the morning of the 28th at 2,648 — losing 2,376 USDT, a return rate of -88.19%. Held it for a day, with a closing volume of 130,000 U.
After opening this position, ETH started to drop. At first, when the loss was just a few hundred, I comforted myself with "normal correction," but the price kept falling deeper and the unrealized loss grew larger. Several times I wanted to cut losses, but thought "I've held on for so long, what if it rebounds?" The longer I held, the more I lost. On the morning of the 28th, I just couldn't hold anymore and cut losses at 2,648, losing 2,376 dollars.
This loss is not undeserved — it was purely from holding the position too long. With 50x leverage, if the direction is wrong, you should admit it immediately; the longer you drag it out, the more you lose.
A painful lesson:
1. Holding positions is the fastest way to lose money; cut losses early to free yourself.
2. Not setting stop-loss orders is like handing your fate over to the market.
3. If the direction is wrong, admit it; don’t argue with the market.
Next iron rules:
· Always set a stop-loss for every position; set it as soon as you enter, no excuses.
· Temporarily stop using 50x leverage; reduce to 10x to calm down.
· Stop trading today; when your mindset is broken, everything you do is wrong.
Spending 2,376 dollars to learn the lesson "don’t hold losing positions" was worth it.
#ETH #LongPositionLoss #CostOfHolding🔥Brothers, the bearish sentiment on $ETH is getting stronger.
I opened a short at 2715.69, currently around 2654.75, with an unrealized profit of 6.73%; for SOL, I opened a short at 120.95, now at 116.57, with an unrealized profit of 10.86%.
📉Why am I currently bearish on ETH?
First, ETF funds continue to be under pressure, and we need to keep an eye on institutional fund flows.
Second, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged above 5%, interest rate pressure remains, making it hard for risk assets to rise comfortably.
🧨Third, the entire crypto market is retreating, BTC is consolidating around 82900, SOL and ZEC are weakening in sync, and ETH is also struggling to hold up for now.
Technically, it’s also weak: multiple attempts above 2700 failed to break through effectively, MACD momentum is contracting, and the stochastic indicator is turning down from a high level.
🚨So, in the short term, I’m still guarding against a downside.
But short positions shouldn’t be chased as prices fall; profits already made should be protected.
Do you think ETH can break below 2600 this time? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Strategy has already bought back all the Bitcoin sold in the past two months, and last week added another 1,665 coins, focusing on buying low and selling high.
This provides relatively stable buying support for the market, which is the best buffer when oil prices, US Treasury yields, and macro uncertainties suppress risk assets.
Now MicroStrategy's holdings have approached more than 4% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, with tradable chips continuing to be locked up, making the supply side tighter. Going all in short on $ZEC!!
Dog whales, don't you like to pump?
Why aren't you pumping anymore? Come on! Keep pumping!!
My position is right here!
When it was pushing up all the way before,
everyone thought it could keep flying.
It even touched around 1695 at the highest.
At that time, I thought it was really absurd.
But the more it moves like this,
the less I want to chase longs.
So I shorted $ZEC directly around 1643,
50x leverage,
all in.
Just checked a moment ago,
the price has already dropped to around 1380.
Down nearly 10% in 24 hours.
Finally, it's the bears' turn to catch a breath.
Currently, this position has about 800% floating profit.
The profit isn't huge,
but that percentage looks really satisfying.
The key is, I don't plan to exit yet.
The harder it pumped before,
once it starts to loosen up,
the drop won't be reasonable either.
Especially the segment above 1500,
it charged several times in a row,
but still couldn't hold.
Now one big bearish candle smashed it back down,
showing that some people above can't hold anymore.
I also shorted $HBAR casually,
opened around 0.12616,
now about 0.118.
Currently floating profit is around 300%.
I don't plan to move either of these two positions recklessly now,
especially $ZEC.
It pumped from over 400 all the way to over 1600.
Who wouldn't be envious of such a rise?
But that's the problem.
It rose too fast.
Once the chips loosen,
the pullback is also fast.
Today already showed you a live example.
As for $PUMP,
it's still hovering around 0.0048,
after pumping over 250% in the past 90 days.
At this point, I don't want to chase it.
Let it play out on its own first.
If it really pumps high then falls back,
I'll see if there's an opportunity.
Right now, I'm most concerned about $ZEC.
1355 is today's low.
Let's see if it can keep pushing down.
If it can't hold this level,
then things get interesting.
Anyway, I've set this position.
Dog whales, don't you like to pump?
Keep pumping.
I'm right here waiting for you.
Holding the $ZEC short position!!
Not telling anyone to copy,
just showing my own position.
Let's see who gives up first in the end.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC control matrix last night showed buyers absorbing, but sellers have regained control
82.5k defended by 50 BTC on Coinbase, 218 BTC perpetual contracts at 82.2k on Binance + 61 BTC spot buy orders
If 82.5k breaks, still looking for rotation down to 80kFor every 20 Ethereum in circulation, nearly 1 is held by BitMine.
This week, it bought another 17,362 ETH, about $46.82 million.
The total has surpassed 6 million ETH, worth approximately $16 billion at current prices.
Converted to a ratio: 4.9%.
The total circulating supply on the entire network is about 122.1 million ETH, and BitMine alone holds 4.9%, just under 110,000 ETH short of 5%.
This strategy only started on June 30, 2025, less than 15 months ago.
According to Tom Lee: they haven’t missed a single week during this period.
Of these 6 million ETH, 5,067,309 are staked, accounting for 84% of their holdings. By market value, about $13.6 billion is actively securing the network.
In other words, this stash of coins is generating income itself.
The annualized staking income is expected to be $358 million. If all were staked, the estimate is $424 million. The company reports a 7-day annualized yield of 2.62%.
If you want to stake or run a node, an individual needs to prepare 35 ETH.
This is the key difference between BitMine and Strategy.
Strategy holds about 840,000 BTC, valued around $70 billion, larger than BitMine. But Bitcoin has no block rewards, so those coins don’t generate income.
BitMine’s coins generate income every hour, a very clear difference.
I checked some data, BitMine’s remaining assets:
01 Crypto, cash, tradable securities, and investments total $17.2 billion. $ZEC has pulled back and stabilized, a quick bottom-fishing opportunity🔥🔥🔥!
After the US stock market opened last night, zec first touched 1599 but did not break through the resistance at the 1600 daily line. Additionally, a certain whale sold 25,001 zec worth 137.84 million USD, causing the price to drop.
At the same time, the same whale bottom-fished zec again and now holds a total of 91.1 million USD in spot. From its candlestick trend, 1357 touched the support level from four hours ago on the daily line.
Currently, Xixi has entered to bottom-fish around 1376 and is still holding. Those who haven't entered long positions yet can refer to Xixi's entry point to open longs on their own!
$BTC $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $QNT QNT has surged recently, and as a result, two old whales who had been dormant for 3 years suddenly woke up and transferred a total of 42,400 coins to exchanges, worth 9.93 million USD!
The big holders definitely want to sell quickly while the price is up and get out.
They held for three years, and now that someone is finally taking over, they’re surely running first out of respect.The price increase is still ongoing, but the pullback after the one-hour surge is accelerating. In the OKX public data at 13:48 (UTC+8), $HBAR spot is quoted at 0.11853, up 22.73% in 24 hours, with a range of 0.09603—0.13101; the spot trading volume for the past 24 full hours is about 57.727 million USDT, and perpetual contracts about 399 million USDT.
In the last full hour, the spot price closed from 0.11861 to 0.12048, up 1.58%, with a trading volume of about 883,800 USDT, an increase of 55.03% compared to the previous period; perpetual contracts rose 1.59% in the same period, with volume increasing by 30.28%. The spot price has now fallen back 1.62% from that hour's close, and the expansion in volume and price has not directly translated into sustained chasing.
Current open interest is about 108 million HBAR (approximately 12.776 million USD), with Funding at +0.00265%. A single open interest snapshot cannot determine the direction of new positions. If it reclaims 0.12141 with continued volume expansion, the strength has a basis to continue; if it breaks below 0.11798 with increased volume, I will first guard against deleveraging pullbacks after the rally and will not chase the highs. Compared to Aero and AVAX, Near's adjustment period is slightly shorter, so it has weakened a bit, especially UNI which is even weaker.
Looking forward to ETH's rally to rescue me from being stuck.
The overall market situation requires patience from you and me. We always say we need patience, but it has already dropped 25%. I really want to add positions, I think about it. Can't escape human nature.