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AMD spent about $8.2 billion in all-stock to acquire World Labs (Fei-Fei Li), yet on Monday it closed around 607.9, down about 3.6%. Narrative premium should not be taken as a direct signal to charge.
Here's what happened: On September 28, AMD officially announced an all-stock acquisition of Fei-Fei Li's World Labs for about $8.2 billion; she will serve as EVP and Chief Scientist, reporting to Su Zifeng, with the deal expected to close within the year.
Monday closed around 607.87, down about 3.61%, hitting an intraday low near 596; on the same day, NVDA rose about 1.7% on buybacks, showing chip stocks did not move in unison.
Simply put: Long-term expansion into intelligent models is a real move, but with interest rates and oil price risk appetite retreating, the short-term looks more like event premium being suppressed by macro factors.
My view: The $8.2 billion is a mid-term narrative, not a buy-the-dip gift from Monday's bearish candle; the selling pressure from interest rates hasn't eased, so don't chase the story premium.
For now, I’m only keeping an observation position, not chasing this move; if it fails, watch for a volume-driven break below Monday’s low near 596, or a firm close above about 630.
Do you think it will first retest 600 before continuing, or will the acquisition news directly push it to test previous highs?
#ThisWeekFacesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #US10YYieldHitsHighestSince2007 GoldDownOver3% $AMD $NVDA $AVGORebound encounters resistance at 4135, bulls lack strength to break pressure, bears' structure remains
Currently, gold price rebounds to test resistance near 4135. After reaching this range, the price shows weak upward momentum, repeatedly testing but unable to break through the 4135‑4176 resistance zone. This indicates heavy selling pressure above, and bulls do not have enough momentum to reverse the market.
Trading strategy remains unchanged: expect resistance in the 4135‑4150 rebound range, still can set up short positions with targets at 4110, 4085, and around 4050.
If it can stabilize above 4176, then the strategy needs to be revised; before that, do not easily switch to long positions $SNDK rebounded from 1691.7 to 1719.8 in 3 minutes, then fell back after the surge, currently priced at 1697.4. The short-term multiple attempts to break above 1719.8 failed to hold, with the rebound facing resistance and experiencing a second pullback.
Currently watching whether the low point at 1691.7 can hold. The price has retraced close to the low, but has not broken down yet. However, the resistance at 1719.8 has been repeatedly tested without success, and selling pressure above continues to suppress.
The levels are clear. Above, 1719.8 is the short-term rebound high; if it can't be reclaimed, the bias remains weak. Below, the first support is at 1691.7; if broken, the price will continue to probe the 24-hour low at 1661.0.
Won't chase longs just because of repeated low-level oscillations, nor blindly add shorts on slight pullbacks. Whether this short-term rebound is complete depends on whether the 1691.7 support can hold.
$SNDK is currently in a weak consolidation phase after the rebound met resistance, with short-term bears holding the upper hand.Gold plunged sharply the previous day, closing at a low point in the early morning. According to technical analysis, shorting is undoubtedly the strategy, but one thing to note is that a sharp drop is often followed by a rebound correction. Therefore, today, Tuesday, during the Asian session, do not rush to short.
Wait for the rebound correction before shorting. The first resistance to watch is the early morning high around 4148/50, and also the moving average resistance at 4165/70. These are all shorting points. If the market continues to consolidate at low levels, short directly again between 1-3 PM in the afternoon $XAU Here is your short 70-word post for ZEC:
*ZEC/USDT - Crashes To $1,371 After $1,697 Top!*
ZEC at $ZEC 1,371.24, down -7.60%, between $1,366.51 low and $1,599.80 high. Sharp correction after explosive rally from $788.68 bottom to $1,697.45 top.
Below MA5 ($1,530.39) and MA10 ($1,530.73) and MA20 ($1,392.48), showing bearish pressure. Note: Technical exhaustion and NFT eco weakness flagged.
Volume at 76.72K ZEC. Breakdown below $1,392 keeps bearish. Reclaim $1,530 can retest $1,599 and $1,697.This morning I carefully studied $BTC once again. Conclusion: It's not a bear market, just a normal correction.
$BTC ｜83,500 (-1% 24h, -3.5% 7d)
Last week's high was 87,374, now down 4.4%.
Support levels: 82,744 → 81,143 → 80,000
Resistance levels: 85,100 → 87,374 → 96,700
Still above the 20-day moving average (80,730) and 50-day moving average (76,510), the 50/200 EMA just formed a golden cross, RSI at 62.83 is not overbought.
The issue lies in the capital side: ETF net inflow last week was 2.39 billion (the strongest week since October 2025), but daily average sharply declined —
999 million → 715 million → 347 million → 191 million → 134.5 million.
Macro: 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.22%, 70.3% chance of rate hike in October, gold down 4% in a single day.
Major events this week: 9/30 PCE, 10/2 Nonfarm Payrolls.#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
Did you see Nvidia making another big move? $NVDA
The board has massively increased the stock buyback quota by $150 billion, pushing the total to $235 billion, to be used through fiscal year 2028. This move sets a new record for the largest single increase in US stock market history.
Many friends think this is just to prop up the stock price, but I see three deeper logics:
First, cash flow is so abundant there's nowhere else to spend it.
Nvidia follows a light-asset model, relying entirely on foundries for chip production. After R&D investment, it holds huge cash reserves, and buybacks are the most efficient way to manage funds.
Second, an extremely hardcore confidence booster.
The market has been questioning whether AI computing power construction will peak or if competitors will take a share. Jensen Huang is directly throwing hundreds of billions of dollars to lock in chips, showing absolute confidence in long-term orders with real money.
Third, a chip defense strategy.
Tightening the float to raise earnings per share (EPS) can effectively resist possible future market volatility or cyclical adjustments.
In the short term, this will undoubtedly form strong support and provide a floor for the stock price. In the mid to long term, it still depends on whether downstream customers can truly make money through AI.
If end applications fail to complete the business loop and customers cut capital expenditures, relying on buybacks alone will struggle to sustain extreme valuations.
Do you support Jensen Huang's massive buyback? How long do you think the AI boom can last?
DYOR $BTC retreated to 83,000, waiting for how the market will break the deadlock
📊 【Market Breakdown: Risk-off Cooling, Not a Trend Reversal】
Before data release, the market first cut liquidity; BTC, gold, and altcoins all pulled back simultaneously, with no one-sided trend, indicating risk-off cooling rather than a trend reversal.
▶ BTC: Fell back to around 83,000, fluctuating repeatedly between 81,500-84,200 to wash out leverage; support at 82,500, resistance at 84,800-85,000.
▶ $ETH: Struggling near 2,680, following BTC but with weaker elasticity.
▶ Altcoins: Clearly diverging, high-level themes fading, chasing rallies carries high risk.
💡 【Industry Deep Dive: Mixed Bull and Bear Factors】
✅ Bullish: ETFs still see continuous net inflows; Hormuz oil shipping rebounds, easing supply concerns slightly.
⚠️ Bearish: PCE on September 30 and Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2 arrive in quick succession; October rate hike probability near 70%, U.S. Treasury yields at highest since 2007.
🎯 【Sentiment Value and Trading Strategy】
Short term: Expect range-bound consolidation before data, funds reluctant to increase positions; only if PCE cools and funds recover will there be a chance for repair, hotter data will push support lower.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/29 )
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 On September 27, ZEC peaked at 1697.45
Setting a new high for this cycle
On the same day, BTC and ETH were quite flat
Price divergence within the market is growing larger
Capital is also paving the way
21Shares launched a Zcash ETP in Europe
Grayscale submitted a high-yield ZCSH ETF registration to the SEC on September 25
NU7 maintains testnet on October 6 and mainnet node on November 5
But to be clear
ZEC dropped from 1697 to 1560 yesterday
An 8% drop vanished just like that
Scaling and upgrades are slow variables
Pricing is still driven by spot demand
So my judgment is
A new high does not equal trend continuation
Channels are set, but if demand doesn't keep up, it's just high-level turnover
$ZEC $BTC #ZEC #PrivacyCoin #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
$PAXG $XAUT
The long-term US Treasury yield has surged to its highest point since 2007, and gold has plunged more than 3% in a single day. Gold does not generate interest; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing funds to flee and putting pressure on gold prices.
Why the drop?
1. US Treasury yield = the anchor for global asset pricing; a sharp rise in yields significantly increases the attractiveness of US dollar interest-bearing assets.
2. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; as real interest rates rise, funds shift from gold to US Treasuries, with long positions concentratedly closing, amplifying the decline.
3. Market pricing behind this: strong US economic resilience, persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates will last longer, and there is even an expectation of further rate hikes.
Outlook
✅ Short term: US Treasury yields will fluctuate at high levels, gold is very likely to remain under pressure with high volatility, so don’t rush to bottom-fish.
✅ Medium to long term: central banks continue to buy gold, geopolitical risks remain, so the bottom support logic still holds, only temporarily suppressed by interest rates.
👉 Key reminder:
This round is a valuation kill by interest rates, not a complete reversal of gold’s fundamentals. When trading gold, be sure to watch two indicators: US Treasury yields + the US dollar.
💬 Interactive question: Do you think this gold correction is a short-term buying opportunity or the start of a decline? Long and Short Crowding List
$NMR negative fee rate is relatively low, short side pays higher cost: current rate -0.0765%, historical 2nd percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.06%.
$USELESS positive fee rate is relatively high, long side pays higher cost: current rate +0.0178%, historical 94th percentile (100 settlements); price up 1.70%.
$SNDK price weakens, long side pays higher cost: current rate +0.0140%, historical 89th percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.06%.I have been paying close attention to $BTC and $SNDK recently,
but I forgot about the gold nuggets I didn't buy before, $XAU
This wave of gold is also continuously probing downward, currently around 4100
The entire market is collapsing now, and gold as a safe-haven asset doesn't seem safe-haven at the moment
I observed the recent downward trend of gold and concluded the following information:
1. Of course, it's still because the US may continue to raise interest rates
2. The US dollar index keeps strengthening, suppressing the price of gold priced in dollars
3. The Middle East has been much calmer recently compared to before, reducing demand
4. Those who took profits earlier cashed out and fled
In summary, now is not a good time to buy gold
If the above four factors continue to exist, it will continue to probe lower!
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 🔥 September 29 $DOGE: Musk finished shouting, bulls are tired too
OKEx currently reports $0.0936, 24h -3.4%, intraday 0.0918–0.0977, 7-day -5.7%. Last week, thanks to Musk's shoutout + whale buying spree of 1.14 billion coins, it surged all the way to 0.1058. Looking back now — it has dropped 12% from the high, one big bearish candle wiped out more than half of the week's gains.
Where's the problem? The 0.098 wall. About 28 billion DOGE are stacked at this price on-chain, the thickest trapped zone on the chart, every attempt to break through gets rejected. Even more painful: bulls are being crushed at a single point — in the past 24 hours, long positions liquidated $2.28 million, shorts only $160k, a 14x difference. People are bullish, but the money is running. BTC dominance rose to 56.7%, altcoin liquidity is being siphoned off, DOGE wants to run an independent rally? Difficult.
Key levels (OKEx contract basis)
Support: 0.0896 → if broken, look at 0.0877
Resistance: 0.0920 / 0.0940
In short: 4H, 1H, 15M timeframes show bearish convergence, now is not the time to bottom-fish. If you're itching to trade — wait for a pullback to 0.0896 to stabilize, and 1H to reclaim 0.0920 before lightly entering, stop loss below 0.0896. Meme sector spikes are common.
$BTC $ETH $BTC fell below $83,000 yesterday. Didn't the US spot ETF just have a net inflow of $2.39 billion last week?
First, look at the timing: this $2.39 billion is the total from September 21 to 25, and the drop happened on the 28th. ETFs don't trade on weekends, but the coin price didn't stop. Someone bought last week, but that doesn't guarantee today's price.
Next, keep an eye on this week's ETF inflows and the price around $83,000. If funds keep flowing in but the price keeps getting pushed back, it means the sell pressure is also significant. Just shouting a reversal based on “institutions are buying” seems too early to me. #BitcoinSpotETFWeeklyNetInflow$2.39B #BitcoinFallsBelow$83,0001.20% margin rate, yet another day walking on the edge of life and death!
Looking at the account, it's really half joy and half worry. The market has been jumping up and down these days, and my positions have also experienced big ups and downs. Today, looking at the market, at least BCH and SOL, these two old buddies, are still holding the fort for me, stubbornly holding the sky.
Position update:
$BCH: Still the brightest star on the floor! Full position 10X, entry price 261.02, mark price 304.15. Although it has pulled back a lot of profits from over 340 before, the current floating profit is still as high as +1,535.66U, ROI +141.74%. From being ground down to now steadily making gains, this "living on the edge of death" wave has finally paid off.
$SOL: The second hero. Full position 20X, entry price 115.63, mark price 117.01. Floating profit +316.80U, ROI +23.59%. What reassures me most is its liquidation price is only 0.4492, this safety cushion is quite solid.
$ETH: The only laggard. Full position 5X, entry price 2718.24, mark price 2659.94, floating loss -47.42U (-10.96%). Ethereum is indeed a bit weak this round, but with 5X leverage, no rush, just keep holding on.
Honestly speaking: the total floating profit of the three orders barely approaches 1800U, but the overall margin ratio is still stuck tightly at 1.20%! Many brothers might think 1.20% looks okay, but for a full position contract, this is like dancing on the tip of a knife. Thinking back to the terrifying moment at 0.39%, although this number is a bit better now, it’s still a state where any small prick can wipe me out.
Having gone through storms and waves, my mindset is steadier now. Contracts are a form of cultivation; as long as you haven't left the table, there's still hope for a comeback. Brothers, how are your positions today? Are you making gains or underwater?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% The bulls counterattacked and retook 83,000, my short positions are trembling...
On the morning of September 29, BTC dropped to 82,778 then quickly pulled back, now at 83,079. The 1-minute chart moving averages are tightly aligned, KDJ (83.0/73.6) formed a golden cross at a low level pointing upward. The bulls indeed executed a beautiful "night raid counterattack," forcibly reclaiming control of 83,000.
The bears clearly lack ammunition; after volume shrank at the bottom, the bulls increased volume to support. But I’m holding short positions, watching this V-shaped rebound, truly trembling inside. Just after topping up my margin with the hard-earned money from my recent cement job, I had to put more in again.
Bullied by my boss in real life, repeatedly harvested by the whales in crypto, it’s so hard for retail investors at the bottom to make money.
From the bottom of my heart, a reminder to myself and everyone:
Such intense 1-minute level tug-of-war is most prone to "double liquidation of longs and shorts." The money used to top up margin must never be used to hold high leverage again! If the bulls hold above 83,200, shorts must decisively reduce positions and cut losses. Protecting principal and life is most important; playing dead with spot positions is better than holding contracts under pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 This round of ETH has been especially resilient since September 16th, and I really admire it.
Compared to BTC's gains and the weak rebounds during corrections.
ETH managed to stabilize at 2626 and each time led a rapid 15-minute rebound in altcoins, the entire crypto ecosystem revolves around ETH.
It further strengthens the belief in the arrival of an altcoin bull market. It solidifies the new on-chain narrative of RWA.
Keep a close eye on ETH's stabilization and the restructuring upwards. This time, we are seizing a bigger opportunity!!📊 This Week's Double Data Window: PCE First for Sticky Inflation, Then Nonfarm Payrolls for Rate Hikes
This week isn’t about “lots of data,” but two pricing-changing windows overlapping.
Wednesday (September 30) will release August PCE, and Friday (October 2) will release September Nonfarm Payrolls. The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, setting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The market is now pricing about a 68% chance of another hike in October. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.1%, near the highest level since 2007. The recent pullback in risk assets mainly reflects adjustment to this interest rate environment, not a sudden crash from any single monthly data.
First, look at Wednesday’s PCE.
PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most. In July, overall year-on-year was 3.7%, core 3.3%, both clearly above the 2% target. August CPI is already out: overall year-on-year about 3.4%, core about 2.4%, month-on-month not weak. Market consensus for August PCE is roughly 0.3%–0.4% month-on-month overall. If core stays near 0.3%, the threshold for an October hike lowers; if core falls clearly below 0.2%, rate trades will breathe easier. Oil prices and geopolitics remain, so energy components tend to push the overall number higher—watching core is more useful than headline.
Then look at Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
August added 162,000 jobs, expected only about 56,000, with the previous two months revised up by about 55,000 combined. That directly pushed the September hike probability from about 50/50 to near 60%. The consensus for September is roughly 80,000 to 100,000, clearly lower than August, but as long as it’s not below the breakeven line needed to keep unemployment stable, it’s hard to read as “employment collapsed.” Unemployment was 4.1% in August. If average hourly earnings year-on-year rise again, that hurts risk assets more than the number of new jobs itself.
The transmission path is short: strong data → short-term rates and dollar rise → valuations get compressed → leveraged longs get liquidated first. In the past day, crypto market long liquidations were about twice shorts, indicating positions were overheated, not a sudden fundamental shift bearish.
One pitfall: don’t tie Wednesday and Friday into the same trade. If PCE is weak and Nonfarm strong, the market will pick rates; if PCE is strong and Nonfarm weak, the market will pick stagflation trades. Trading both simultaneously most easily gives back the first trade’s profits when the second data comes out.
What really matters is not the price moves themselves, but whether the probability of an October hike after Friday’s close moves away from the 65%–70% gate. If the gate doesn’t move, rebounds above 80,000 are still just fluctuations within the data week.
Are you moving only after data lands this week, or locking in direction early?
#Nonfarm #PCE #Fed #CryptoMacro #RateTrades
$BTC $ETH $OKB $BTC $ETH After a day of volatility and false breakouts yesterday, it can only be said that the possibility of reaching 80000 is continuously increasing. This kind of back-and-forth manipulation that keeps inducing longs or shorts is just too typical.
In the short term, it's better to give up the fantasy of a rise and prepare strategies to cope. Those who bottom-fished around 76000-79000 and haven't exited yet might be in some danger, because during the rise to 87000, most people likely added positions at floating profits, possibly averaging above 81000. Now they're hesitating—if a pullback comes soon, it will hit the cost line. Should they stay or leave?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $HYPE Starting October 3rd, Circle and Coinbase will send money to Hyperliquid weekly, and many people haven't accounted for this.
1. USDC revenue sharing starts on 10/3: USDC income on HyperEVM+HyperCore will be shared with the ecosystem. The market estimates an annualized amount of about $250 million, which will go directly into the buyback and burn pool. This is the largest revenue-side increment since its listing, bar none.
2. But the supply side is worrisome: 983,600 tokens will be unlocked and tradable on 10/1, Wintermute has a $126 million short position, and large institutions are betting on a short-term pullback.
3. Technically, 87.4 has already dropped near the 30-day moving average, down 8% in 7 days, and the positive premium from Binance listing has basically been wiped out.
My plan: buy in at 84.8-86.8, stop loss at 82.8, hold before the revenue sharing lands on 10/3, with the first rebound target at 94-97. With so many short positions, I won't short.Recently, there should be fewer long positions opened, or if none are opened, just finish the directions that haven't weakened. The recovery of $SNDK still hasn't returned to the upper side, and the Nasdaq's recovery is also insufficient. The market feeling is a bit unfavorable. Yesterday's judgment that there was no quick recovery means it might be forming an M top.
Open a position to play the oversold rebound of the big A market, no need to look at individual stocks, just those three. Let's see if the holiday red envelopes are given; if not given tomorrow, then exit.
Try to open as few positions as possible, and if Hynix $SKHYNIX goes up, continue to open short positions.
Plus, since the non-farm payroll data is coming out tomorrow, with no good confidence, just hold small positions in the directions that haven't weakened.
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData Ethereum Morning Market Analysis for September 29
On the 1-hour chart, this round of the market showed a bottoming out and rebound followed by a rise that met resistance and then fell back. The price touched the upper boundary of the range and closed bearish under pressure. The high point failed to break through the previous consolidation high. The CVD rose in sync with this rally, but when the price was blocked and fell back, the CVD quickly turned downward, indicating a rapid weakening of capital support. This suggests that the rebound was mainly driven by short-term speculative funds without sustained long-term buying support. After the rally, active selling quickly emerged. During the OI bottoming phase, short positions closed, causing open interest to fall; during the rebound phase, open interest slightly increased. When the price met resistance and fell back, open interest did not shrink significantly, indicating that neither bulls nor bears exited en masse. Short orders above continued to face pressure, and the market remained conflicted. Overall, this is a rebound test after a decline. The price attempts to test resistance upward, but capital cannot keep up, and the bulls lack momentum to attack. The market returns to range-bound trading. If the price tests resistance again with CVD strengthening and open interest steadily rising, there is a chance to break out of the range and open upward space. If the price continues to fall with CVD declining and open interest increasing simultaneously, the bears will regain control, and a retest of the lower support level is highly likely.$BTC
$ETH
ETH is still leaning bullish at the moment.
Since the start from 2380–2400, the price has been moving within an ascending channel. Although there was obvious selling pressure when it surged to 2760–2780, the pullback near 2640 was quickly supported, and the structure of higher lows remains intact.
So, I tend to believe:
This is a high-level digestion after the rise, not the end of the trend.
Next, focus on two key levels.
2640–2660: Short-term defense
This is close to the 4H ascending trendline. If it holds, we continue to watch 2720 and 2775–2800; if it breaks down effectively and fails to recover on a rebound, I will lower my short-term bullish expectations.
2775–2800: The real breakout zone
Previous highs, the upper channel boundary, and the supply zone basically overlap here.
If it doesn’t break through here, ETH will likely continue to oscillate within the channel; once it breaks out with volume and holds, it means the upside space is further opened.
As for 2380–2400, it is the core support of this 4H upward structure and the level where I judge whether the trend is truly broken.
My offensive strategy is simple:
The trend is bullish, so I don’t chase in the middle.
Look for confirmation on the pullback at 2640–2660, and take the right side on a breakout above 2800.
As long as the lows keep rising, there’s no need to guess the top prematurely.
If 2800 doesn’t break, continue to consolidate;
If 2800 holds, then look for the next move. From the start, trading was never meant to be a guessing game about direction—it’s more like playing chess.
The ratio of call to put gamma exposure is nearly equal—almost neutral. This means that wherever the price surges, it could swing wildly in either direction.
Here, I’m applying two plans to the $90k position.
.
$BTC / #MicronEarningsAhead Near 83500 on 9.29, BTC shows a faint bullish signal, targeting 82500/81500.
Those wanting to go long can consider going long near 81500 with a stop loss at 80800, targeting 83000/84000.
BTC on the 1H chart has fallen steadily from 87385, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. The current price around 82940 is weak and consolidating sideways. Resistance lies between 83000-83800, and 81500 is a key support level below.
With US Treasury yields and oil prices high, combined with the fluctuating US-Iran situation, risk sentiment hasn't truly eased yet. Today's market is likely to continue shaking out.
With 9 years of trading experience, the faster the market moves, the more you shouldn't rush to place bets.
Others look at candlesticks; I look at positions. When the position is right, the profits will naturally come. $BTC $ZEC $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 📉 当前市场重点不只是价格下跌，而是 $120 上方突破失败后，短线多头动能明显减弱。 👀 接下来关注： ➤ $115–116：短线支撑区域 ➤ $120：重新站回后才有机会修复结构 ➤ $125：前高压力，放量突破才更有意义 随着 BTC 回落至 $83K 附近、整体风险资产承压，SOL 的高波动属性也让资金更容易出现快速轮动。 🔥 反弹不等于趋势确认，急跌后的第一次反抽也不一定可靠。 你会等 SOL 出现止跌信号，还是等卖压进一步释放后再观察？ #SOL #Solana #Crypto #OKX #DailyOrbitSharing a personal operation:
Recently, I transferred part of my $NEAR position to $ZAMA.
The reason is simple: since the market is refocusing on NEAR's privacy transmission capabilities, Zama, which focuses on privacy computing, is also worth attention.
Zama's core technology is FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption), which can be simply understood as: data remains encrypted while smart contracts can still compute directly without exposing the original data.
Currently, it is possible to convert USDC into cUSDC, transfer with encrypted balances and amounts, and enter supported Morpho Vaults. Assets can be used normally, but the amounts and balances do not need to be fully disclosed.
This is a different approach from NEAR's Confidential Intents: NEAR leans more towards private transactions and intent execution, while Zama focuses more on privacy computing.
Recently, Zama has also extended confidential access to 16 Morpho Vaults.
I think the truly interesting part of the privacy track is not just privacy coins, but privacy genuinely entering DeFi.
NEAR also has a spot ETF coming up, which may consolidate in the short term after the positive news lands, so I moved part of my position to ZAMA, which I personally consider a more reasonable operation.$BTC $XAU Gold, please hold! Don't dump on me! Just now Fed Governor Cook spoke. I summarized it - she covered AI, economy, financial system, but market only cares about inflation + rates. *Core takeaway:* Cook's stance is: - No rush to cut rates now - If inflation doesn't come down → willing to HIKE - If employment collapses → willing to CUT It's hawkish, but not ultra-hawkish. She's made it clear before - right now she's more worried about inflation. If it doesn't fall, Fed should be ready to Albert's Road to Recovery: Still 180k short of principal recovery on this account
So far, I've recovered over 10k in the past few days
Analyzing yesterday's trades
Yesterday, I kept shorting ZEC and ETH, shorting ZEC around 1600 and ETH around 2700. Because the positions kept floating in profit and fluctuated back to the cost line several times, my mind wavered and I failed to align knowledge with action. I shorted ZEC from 1200 all the way to 1700 and lost tens of thousands. In the end, I didn't even catch a $1000 drop in this wave and ran away. Unfortunately, I missed the big moves on both ZEC and ETH.
In the early morning, ETH hovered around 2700 and I opened at least three short positions, finally breaking even and exiting. Then seeing gold dropping a lot, I kept going long on gold and short on oil.
Also in the early morning, I saw "Ao Ying" open a very large short position on oil, which influenced me. Originally, I shorted near 96 and caught down to 92, then tried to catch a bigger drop by shorting again at 92.
Woke up to see ZEC dropped to just over 1300, feeling a bit upset for missing out on several thousand USD, and ETH also dropped. Currently, my long gold and short oil positions are both stuck. Sigh.
Align knowledge with action, hold on to floating losses, but can't hold on to floating profits.$SNDK: Short!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1710-1715 range (dense moving average resistance zone) and then enter short.
· Target first at 1661 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then target 1650. Set stop loss above 1720.
Core basis:
1. Moving average bearish pressure: On the 1-hour level, MA5 (1708), MA10 (1711), and MA20 (1712) diverge downward, price runs below all three lines, forming a strong resistance band above.
2. Pattern breakdown downward: From the high of 1908, a cliff-like plunge to 1661, heavy trapped positions at the top, current low-volume sideways consolidation is a typical downward continuation pattern, bulls lack strength to reverse.
3. Volume-price and Bollinger Bands coordination: Volume contraction on rebound indicates weak bullish support, Bollinger middle band (1712.9) slopes downward forming strong resistance, following the trend to short offers the best risk-reward ratio.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ZEC Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis
1. 15 minutes
RSI 24.83, deeply oversold; MACD bearish with increasing volume.
After a sharp drop, there is a slight consolidation at the low level, which is a short pause after a crash, not a reversal.
Short-term resistance: 1434~1445 (Supertrend + MA20)
2. 1 hour
RSI is only 14.59, already in extreme oversold territory, all major moving averages are above, trend is completely bearish.
First rebound barrier at 1440; as long as it doesn't hold above this level, all rebounds are bear traps within the downtrend.
3. 4 hours
4-hour MACD has formed a death cross with a significantly enlarged green histogram, bullish structure broken.
The previous large consolidation box has been broken downward, trend shifted from bullish to bearish.
Support at 1366.51; if broken effectively, next target is around 1300.
4. Daily
Daily MACD red bars turned green, high-level bearish divergence confirmed a major drop.
Current price is exactly at the daily MA20 (1385), a key long-term trend support and the most important defense line for this rally.
- Daily close above 1385: chance for consolidation and recovery
- Daily close below 1385: this rally officially ends, opening deeper downside space
Market Summary
✅ Short-term: severe oversold, technical small rebound possible; rebounds are shorting opportunities, not bottom-fishing opportunities
✅ Mid-term: 4-hour box broken, trend turned bearish, overall direction downward
Fundamental + Market Context
This decline is essentially profit-taking by bulls after a sustained short squeeze rally plus a cascade of contract liquidations, a high-level sell-off stampede.
Such a breakdown after a high rally will continue to be sold off if rebounds are weak;
However, due to extreme oversold RSI on the 1-hour, a rebound trap is likely before the second wave of decline.
Key Levels
- Strong support: 1366.51 (intraday low), break below targets 1300
- First resistance: 1434-1445, rebound to this zone is a shorting opportunity
- Daily critical line: 1385
Trading Strategy
1. Do not short at current price: 1-hour extremely oversold, prone to quick rebound spikes, shorting now risks stop-loss hunting and poor risk-reward.
2. Strictly avoid heavy bottom-fishing: major trend broken, bottom-fishing is counter-trend and very risky.
For rebound plays: very small position, wait for a stable break above 1395, stop-loss below 1365, target near 1435.
3. Short wait: wait for rebound to 1434~1445 resistance zone, look for candlestick signs of stalling before shorting, stop-loss above 1450.
4. Core focus: can 1366.51 low hold? Breaking this means support failed completely, new round of sell-off begins.
The major trend has weakened, further downside likely, but short-term oversold will cause a rebound first; after rebound is the high-risk window for the second sell-off. Don't be fooled by the “breakthrough of previous highs”
This BTC breakout lacks volume, with long shadows
Repeatedly retesting, the more retests,
the less strength it shows, it's exhausting the bulls
The macro situation is even harsher: ceasefire rejected, oil prices rise
Inflation expectations rise, US 10-year Treasury nears 5.2%
Money is getting more expensive, risk assets fear this the most
Next two big events: 9/30 PCE, 10/2 Nonfarm Payrolls
Currently priced about 70% chance of rate hike, data is the real trigger
Technical summary: weak rebound followed by further drop
82800 is the lifeline, hold it and observe
If broken, 80900 is the next stop
Don't pretend to be a warrior in the vacuum zone
The 4th retest appears, probability of falling back into the range clearly rises
Short position: 83600–84400 base
Stop loss 85200
Target 80900 (start point of the big bullish candle)
Long positions wait for stabilization signals, then reassess
Now is not the time to bottom fish
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC $ETH $ZEC has finally had a decent pullback after such a long time. Should the brothers who are short consider taking profits now?
Today, ZEC had a rare pullback of over 10 points, and on the daily chart, it’s the first pullback since rising from around 500, settling above the 20-day moving average. Previously, pullbacks only nearly reached this level, so there is support here. It’s not necessarily bearish right away; if this level holds, a strong rebound aiming for new highs is also possible.
For those who shorted around 1000, all I can say is good luck and hope you can get out of the position.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The rebound is FOR selling, whales know this best. Do you know how much ETH quietly changed hands last week? I pulled the on-chain data and couldn't sit still. - A 3-year diamond-hand whale sent *112,053 ETH ($300M) to Bitfinex* in the past week, cashed out $72.83M in profit. - Another OTC whale dumped *42,000 ETH ($112M) to Galaxy Digital* on Sept 23, near full liquidation. Less than 10K ETH left after the sale. Retail is screaming "buy the dip at 2700" while whales are rushing to exit AT 2700.ZEC's drop this time is really quite harsh
It fell straight down from a high of 1695 to a low of 1367, now around 1376, dropping nearly 13% in one day
The main reason is that it had risen too much before, up 64% in 30 days, more than 4 times in 180 days, with heavy profit-taking pressure. Any slight disturbance easily triggers a chain stampede
Although the daily chart is still holding and hasn't completely broken down, the 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, the green bars are expanding, and the 1-hour and 15-minute moving averages are all pressing down
The short-term cycle is clearly weakening
The 4-hour open interest dropped directly from 219 million to 155 million, leverage funds are retreating frantically
The funding rate once flashed down to -0.05%, and the long-short account ratio dropped directly to 0.70
This indicates retail investors are actually aggressively shorting
Below, first watch 1367, today's low and the short-term lifeline
If it breaks, it will likely test 1315
Resistance above is at 1483, then 1592
Before reclaiming 1483, all rebounds can only be seen as weak rebounds
If it can hold around 1367, with volume shrinking and sideways consolidation for a few days, this is likely a violent shakeout to clean out leverage, leaving opportunities later
But if it breaks through 1367 directly, the downside space may open further
My plan is simple
Wait until it stops falling, consolidate with low volume around 1367 or 1315, then consider trying a small position
#ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $ZEC
Personal review, not investment advice 🏦 机构资金持续关注 🌍 主权资金配置讨论升温 💧 ETF资金与宏观流动性仍是关键变量 但通往 $1M 的道路不会一帆风顺。 大级别上涨往往伴随着深度回撤，短期波动仍可能非常剧烈。 📊 接下来重点关注： • BTC能否重新站稳 $86K–$88K 区域 • PCE + 非农数据对美联储路径的影响 • Micron财报对科技与风险资产情绪的传导 • 霍尔木兹局势与油价带来的宏观风险溢价 稀缺性提供长期叙事， 时间则负责验证市场最终是否认可这个逻辑。 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus #DailyOrbitToday the market feels basically frozen, with only four coins making some noise.
$BTC is tugging back and forth around 84,200. ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high, institutions haven't withdrawn, but volume is shrinking day by day. No one dares to move before Wednesday's non-farm payroll release; the longer the 83,500-85,000 range holds, the more explosive the breakout will be.
$ENA is around 0.25. It relies on yield to stand firm: spot plus futures hedging earns funding fees, so it still generates income in a bear market, leaving many air coins behind. It surged 20% on volume a couple of days ago, then pulled back on lower volume today. The 0.25 level has been tested repeatedly without breaking; after consolidation, it’s still heading up.
$ASTER is near 0.73, a DEX specializing in decentralized perpetual contracts. When the market is flat, contract traders are most active, with many swing trades in a choppy market, pushing fees higher. Watch one signal: when the rate turns negative, it means shorts are adding positions betting on a drop, while longs actually profit.
$HYPE is around 92. Daily trading volume is tens of billions of dollars, with 97% of protocol revenue used to buy back tokens, effectively distributing profits directly to holders. The product line has expanded from perpetuals to options and spot, covering all bases. 90 is a psychological support level; holding it is safe, breaking below means you should avoid.
No messing around late at night, just jotting down these few.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 *Brothers, are we going straight to 1000 this round?* I'm telling you, this is the one where I turn it all around. $SNDK just dumped hard today - 1786 to 1725 in one big red candle. My short from 1888.8 is sitting at *+84% floating profit.* The bigger the number gets, the calmer I get. Because this isn't random - this is how it starts. Catalysts are lining up: *1. NFP this week* - volatility will explode before the data. *2. The REAL killer - Oct Fed meeting.* Hike probability jumped 50% -> 70%.The address that built a position in $QNT seven years ago took profits again after three years, with a cost as low as $22.57🤩
Address 0x94e…C73Bb withdrew 53,632.95 QNT (1.21 million USD) from major exchanges between 2019.05 and 2022.11. One hour ago, it deposited 9,000 of them back into an exchange, worth 1.998 million USD, at a deposit price of $222.09, yielding a return of 884%.
Wallet address 0x94eaF82e0c2ca23A74210aC4372980f6BEAC73Bb₿ $BTC | ~$83.5K ♦️ $ETH | ~$2.68K ☀️ $SOL | ~$121 加密市场目前仍处于震荡偏弱阶段。美债收益率维持高位，加上市场持续评估美联储后续利率路径，风险资产短线仍面临一定压力。 📊 重点价格区域： ➤ $BTC：$82K–$83K 关键支撑｜$85K–$87K 阻力 ➤ $ETH：$2.60K–$2.75K 多空争夺区 ➤ $SOL：$118–$125 震荡区间 🌍 本周宏观焦点： • 🇺🇸 9月30日：美国 PCE 通胀数据公布，市场将关注核心通胀变化 • 🇺🇸 10月2日：美国非农就业数据登场，可能影响市场对美联储政策的预期 • 💻 美股科技板块财报持续受到关注，尤其是 Micron 的业绩及前景可能影响 AI/半导体板块情绪 • 💵 美债收益率与美元走势仍是 BTC 和高贝塔资产的重要外部变量 目前 BTC 仍在关键支撑附近徘徊。若放量重新站上 $85K–$87K，短线结构可能得到改善；如果失守 $82K，则需要警惕进一步向下寻找流动性。 📌 不要只看瞬间插针。 关注 收盘价 + 成交量 + 流动性 + ETF资金流 +Today DOT 1.15 dropped 7.46%, sliding down like stagnant water again. It turns out the whole market is waiting for the macro shoe to drop. The US-Iran situation, Bitget incident, Wednesday's PCE, Friday's non-farm payrolls—any of these could flip the table. If talks go well, risk appetite surges and crypto takes off; if talks fail, safe havens soar and risk assets plunge into a deep pit. I used to fear this kind of market, recklessly opening positions only to get stopped out on both longs and shorts; now I've learned my lesson, small retail investors don't even qualify as cannon fodder. Hold spot positions without heavy leverage, never gamble on one-sided bets, and keep enough ammo ready for when the shoe drops. Even if DOT breaks 1.10, no panic—wait for clarity. Sit back, watch the show, no rush for the moment. $DOT #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $XAU: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 4155-4170 range (Bollinger upper band and previous support turned resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 4117 (24-hour low); if it breaks down effectively, then look at 4080-4100. Set stop loss above 4180.
Core basis:
1. Clear moving average resistance: Since the sharp drop from 4319, the 1-hour MA20 (4141.9) is sloping downward, and the price faces strong resistance when retracing to this level. The long-term trend is bearish with a bearish alignment.
2. Breakdown pattern downward: The previous large-volume bearish candle broke multiple supports, with heavy trapped positions at the top. The current low-volume sideways consolidation is a typical bearish continuation pattern, with bulls unable to mount a V-shaped recovery.
3. Volume-price and Bollinger band coordination: The sharp drop was on high volume, rebound on low volume, indicating weak bullish support. The Bollinger bands are opening downward, with the middle band (4141.9) providing clear resistance. Shorting on rallies offers the best risk-reward ratio.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注
ZEC is currently reported at $1388.4, down about 12.1% in 24 hours, with a low touching $1379.
Although the drop has exceeded 10%, the recent large long positions have not yet been broken by this round of pullback. Among million-dollar level holdings, currently only one long position around $1 million has been hit by the market. The recent long liquidation line is still at $1359.45, about 2.1% below the current price. Approximately $17.455 million in long positions are still held, with an average price of $1558.41, showing an unrealized loss of about $2.137 million (0xcbab…).
Further below, at $1357.59, there is another estimated liquidation line for about $2.631 million in long positions. The combined large holdings of about $20.086 million have risk concentrated around $1358–$1359.$SNDK is trading at 1,692 with $83.55 million of long capital sitting barely above water — average entry 1,688.89, a cushion of just three dollars. That is not a position; it is a tripwire. Strip out the headline number and the fragility sharpens. Only 25% of longs are in profit. The entire $83.55 million block has generated roughly $157,300 in unrealized gains — under half a percent. A move of a few dollars turns the whole cohort red at once, and a market that has spent months rewarding patiencCurrent assets shrank on Red Monday / Today's earnings slightly pulled back
ETH｜Current price 2,662 Key resistance 2,750 Key support 2,620
BTC｜83,013 Resistance 86,000 Support 81,000 (ETF average cost accumulation zone)
After the frenzy, the tide recedes; 82,800 is the threshold for bulls to regain control, 81,000 is the lifeline. The account turned green today, but the spot has no leverage, no averaging down, and the position is controlled to a level that allows for sleep. Trading is not about who earns fast, but who lasts long. The lesson from the market is that after a surge there must be a pullback; surviving is more important than making quick money. Hold your position, the chips are still on the table and the opportunity will come. $ETH #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 Many people rush to buy the dip as soon as the RSI falls below 35, but they overlook one premise: whether the trend structure is still healthy. Moving averages are the simplest and most effective tool to judge trends—when the MA5 crosses below the MA20 and both are moving downward, it indicates that the medium-term momentum has weakened. At this point, oversold conditions only confirm weakness rather than signaling a reversal.
Take $FET as an example. Current price is 0.216, down 11.37% in 24h, with MA5=0.22054 already below MA20=0.227, a standard bearish alignment; the MACD histogram at -0.0008648 remains negative, momentum has not recovered; RSI=31.6 is close to oversold, but the Bollinger lower band at 0.217152 is right below, and the price is running along the lower band, indicating weak trend hugging the band rather than a volume-shrinking bottom. More importantly, the funding rate is still +0.0100%, meaning longs are still paying to hold positions, showing that bottom-fishing sentiment has not cleared. Blindly catching the falling knife under this structure carries high risk.
My view is short-term bearish but no need to chase the dip. You can wait for a rebound to 0.220–0.222 (around MA5) to try short positions in batches. This area is a resonance of moving average resistance and a previous dense trading zone. Take profit 1 is at 0.210 (below the extended Bollinger lower band), take profit 2 is at 0.203 (calculated from the lower range of 30 K-line amplitude). Stop loss is set above 0.229; if the price effectively stands above MA20, the bearish logic is invalidated.🚨 The expectation for $BTC to hit $100K by the end of the year is heating up!
Kalshi market data shows that traders' pricing for BTC to break $100,000 before the end of 2026 has recently risen to about 39%, a clear rebound since the beginning of the month.
Meanwhile, BTC's weekly structure has also changed: the price previously climbed back above the 50-week moving average, closing the week of September 20 at about $81.2K, the first time since November 2025 that it has reclaimed this long-term trend indicator.
📊 The capital flow is also worth noting: • On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $999M • By the week ending September 25, BTC ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of about $2.4B • However, BTC recently pulled back from above $87K to around $84K, indicating that the high-yield environment is still creating pressure.
🎯 Key levels to watch next: 🔹 $84K–$85K: Can it stabilize again in the short term?
🔹 $87K: Confirmation zone for breaking previous highs
🔹 $90K: Next important psychological barrier
🔹 Around $81K: 50-week moving average and mid-term structure observation point
If BTC can continue to hold the long-term trendline while ETF demand remains strong, market pricing for $100K by year-end may continue to evolve.
🔥 Uptober is approaching, but first watch the structure and capital flow—don’t chase the rally.
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTC1BTC 83,013｜ETH 2,662｜BNB 757｜XRP 1.48｜SOL 117
All five coins retraced together, BTC only dropped 0.75% the most stable, SOL dropped 3% the hardest, XRP pressured by events. Over the past week, BTC retraced from 87K to 83K, more like profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. BTC holds 82,800 looking at 85K; ETH 2,620 not breaking looks at 2,750; BNB 745 is the bottom line; XRP 1.45 is the psychological level; SOL 115 not breaking looks at 120. Roles: BTC sets direction·ETH sets strength·BNB watches defense·XRP watches events·SOL watches resilience. The contradictory background is that ETFs received 29,300 BTC in seven days but the price did not rise, indicating old holders are cashing out. If BTC stands back at 84K tonight, only small caps will have liquidity. $BTC $ETH $BNB $XRP $SOL #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC 83200. The boundary between bulls and bears. Standing above it means a bull market, failing to do so means a bear market.
In the past three days, BTC has been fluctuating between 82500 and 85000. This back-and-forth movement gives no clear direction.
Why? Because there is no catalyst. The weekend news was empty, and Monday and Tuesday had no major events. Funds are on the sidelines, waiting to see which way the wind blows.
Bullish reasons:
1. Interest rate hikes have landed, all bad news is out
2. ETF weekly inflow of 2.4 billion, institutions are buying
3. Weekly golden cross, mid-term trend is upward
Bearish reasons:
1. Strong resistance at the previous high of 87000, two attempts failed
2. Unstable situation in Iran, rising oil prices = inflation pressure
3. Daily RSI dropped from 70, short-term weakness
Both sides have valid points. But I lean bullish. Why?
Because the mid-term trend is upward, and short-term pullbacks are healthy. Also, institutions are buying, and funds are flowing in. Under these circumstances, the downside is limited, and the upside is greater.
Short-term: oscillating between 81000-85000, slightly strong.
Mid-term: bullish, target 90000.
Those who have experienced several bull and bear cycles should understand.
#BTC #多空分界线 #83200 #穿越者 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 AAVE is not just planning to buy back tokens, but might also use the profits to "burn" tokens!
On September 29, Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that they are considering adding an AAVE token burn mechanism in Aavenomics 3.0.
The real focus is not just on the term "burn," but on Aave redesigning how AAVE captures value: protocol generates revenue → continuous buyback of AAVE → gradually shifting to automated, on-chain execution.
If implemented, the logic would be: the higher the protocol revenue, the more funds for buyback, potentially further reducing AAVE's circulating supply.
However, this is still at the "consideration" stage and does not mean it has been implemented yet. The key points to watch next are the buyback scale, burn quantity, and whether protocol revenue can sustain growth.
This time, the hype around AAVE is not just about burning expectations, but about "whether protocol revenue can truly return to token holders' hands."
$AAVE