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Bitcoin’s macro backdrop changed within hours. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to cool. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike expectations falling from roughly 63% to 48%. That matters because crypto has been trading under a very different assumption. A potential rate hike means tighter financial conditions, stronger pressure on risk assets and less room for speculative capital. A pause removes part of that prThis wave was purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head. When I opened the market this morning, I saw the sell orders were still strong, trading volume was low, the rebound was weak, and it felt like a heavy bull trap—typical of a move with no buyers. I casually took a short position. $VVV dropped from 18.493 to 17.110, a +149.57% gain in hand. The earlier part was really slow, but the outcome was really sweet. According to the rules, I first took profit on 80%, moved the stop loss of the remaining 20% to the cost price, and let it run on its own. If it breaks down further, hold on; don’t be greedy for the last bit. Hold as long as the trend is intact; if it breaks, exit—don’t fall in love with the market. The money earned is the realization of knowledge; the money lost is the flaw in understanding. Don’t rush now; chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to emerge and then watch, patiently awaiting good news.
$ADA $BTC AnomaPay has launched native ETH withdrawal functionality. Previously, when withdrawing to a new Ethereum address from AnomaPay, you had to first withdraw WETH, then transfer $ETH from another address to cover the Gas. Now the protocol automatically converts WETH to ETH internally, allowing direct withdrawal to the new address.
This update solves the biggest user experience bottleneck in privacy payments: cold start for new users.
AnomaPay offers Zcash-level privacy payments, where on-chain transactions are invisible to others. But when funds from the privacy chain are withdrawn to a new mainnet address, where does the Gas come from? Previously, an address holding ETH had to top up the new address first, exposing the link between the two addresses. This step is now eliminated.
The Anoma team has always been strong in underlying technology, but their products have yet to take off. AnomaPay is their first product aimed at ordinary users, running on the Base chain, supporting ETH, USDC, and USDT payments, with virtual and physical cards.
The privacy payment sector has never had a successful precedent. Zcash is hardly used, and Monero is mainly used on the dark web. AnomaPay’s opportunity lies in its product positioning—privacy is just an underlying feature; what users perceive is "being able to spend money," not "I am protecting my privacy." However, regulatory pressure is increasing, and the tension between compliance and anonymity will grow tighter.
ETH automatic withdrawal may not be flashy, but it brings AnomaPay one step closer to being "usable."From this perspective, the market still overestimates the importance of the non-farm payrolls.
In fact, since July, non-farm payrolls have shifted from being a directional variable to a tail variable, with a very low weight in macro pricing power.
New job additions below 100,000 indicating weakening demand is based on the context of the times.
In previous years or the last cycle, the overall labor force population increased continuously every month, and the US needed to keep creating new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
Now, labor supply growth is nearly stagnant. Assuming only 10,000 new job seekers per month and companies adding 30,000 jobs, the labor market remains tight, and even with zero growth, the unemployment rate can stay stable.
Due to insufficient labor supply, the importance of non-farm payrolls has started to show tail characteristics.
Unless new job additions, unemployment rate, and permanent unemployment numbers all rise together, which is currently a low probability.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls will most likely be weak, then the Federal Reserve will use this as a reason to pause the September rate hike, the US dollar will weaken, and BTC will continue to rally a bit. As for whether a bull market can come, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term.
For BTC, non-farm payroll data is at most trading value, not breakthrough value.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ARB $ZEC $UNI On September 3rd, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if subsequent data confirms a weakening of inflationary pressures, he tends to maintain interest rates unchanged in September. This statement caused the probability of a rate hike in September to drop directly from 63.2% the previous day to 50.4%. The S&P 500 rose 1.06%, the Nasdaq rose 1.40%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.18%.
This is a typical risk appetite recovery, but I do not believe this signals a rate cut or a dovish shift. The market has simply moved from a higher likelihood of a rate hike back to an even split between hiking or not hiking. This is a marginal change in macro trading, not a real policy change, but a shift in probability distribution.
Additionally, yesterday's significant gains in various crypto stocks such as $MSTR, $COIN, and $HOOD, besides being driven by a rebound in $BTC, are also related to this improvement in risk appetite. These stocks inherently have higher beta, so amplified gains are not surprising and are not the same as on-chain real income, stablecoin settlements, or regulatory certainty. Friends, please do not confuse these.$ZEC exploded last night!
Finally, this huge fortune has come to me!!!
Rolling long positions is really exciting. I started buying around 800 and set a clear exit at 951! Unexpectedly, it actually worked!!
Today, ZEC topped the trending list, up 15%, directly hitting 979! Just one step away from $1000.
This surge isn’t just retail speculation; institutional channels have truly opened. Real money ETF has come in. Grayscale listed on NYSE Arca on 8/25, the world’s first ZEC spot ETP, now holding over 400,000 coins with AUM exceeding $300 million. Institutions can allocate ZEC without opening wallets, changing the demand structure.
The narrative has shifted. Early privacy coins = regulatory risk + delisting; now it’s "In the AI surveillance era, you need financial privacy." Grayscale directly uses AI surveillance as a talking point, blocking 4.81 million ZEC (28% of circulation) in the shielded pool, indicating it’s not pure speculation.
Leverage + breakout triggered short squeeze. After breaking 900, shorts got trapped; RSI at 79.6 hasn’t exploded yet, but 1000 is a key round number, volatility will explode.
Looking at 7 days, aiming for 1000, but currently seriously overbought. 813 is today’s low, 845 is the long-short line; if it can’t hold, it will retest. Hold onto the privacy narrative, and definitely don’t chase at the 1000 threshold. $ETH The Federal Reserve and the White House share the same stance; a rate cut may already be a done deal!!
This morning, U.S. Vice President Pence's remarks indicated that the main combat operations against Iran have ended. As long as Tehran does not continue to attack commercial shipping, easing negotiations are a foregone conclusion.
At the same time, Pence again urged the Federal Reserve to cut rates, echoing recent emphasis by Fed Chair Powell on controlling the inflation rate, while the extent of any rate hike heavily depends on next Friday's August CPI.
Tonight's nonfarm payroll data release is also a key indicator for the mainstream market trend, and forecasts suggest it will either be below market expectations or basically meet them.
If the news is positive tonight, a raging bull market will officially kick off!!! $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The 30-year US Treasury yield has continuously stayed above 5%. This is not a minor bond news; the market is repricing the "long-term commitment."
Short-term yields are high, which indicates that the policy rate hasn't come down. Long-term yields being high is even more troublesome, as it includes inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, term premiums, and investors' doubts about the purchasing power of the US dollar over the coming decades.
For assets like BTC, a high long-end yield is neither purely bearish nor bullish. On one hand, it increases the appeal of risk-free returns; on the other, it reminds the market that traditional bonds are no longer inherently safe as before.
I think the most important aspect to watch in this trend is its durability. If the long-term yields only spike temporarily, risk assets can breathe a sigh of relief; if it becomes the new normal, all valuation models will have to be forcibly recalculated.
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% There is still a strong bullish divergence for $SUI relative to $BTC.
This means that once Bitcoin enters consolidation, I expect to see a strong upward breakout on this asset, and I still believe $1.50 is possible. $ETH If you’re involved in USDT transactions, there’s one thing you should understand: being contacted for questioning doesn’t automatically mean you committed a crime. If it ever happens, keep these three things in mind. 1️⃣ Don’t get scared by the opening statement. You may hear that “virtual currencies are not protected by law.” That does not automatically mean your transaction was illegal. It generally means crypto transactions may not receive the same legal protection as ordinary financial transThe market is waiting for the news at 20:30 tonight
1. August seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: expected +55,000, previous -23,000; institutional forecast range -25,000 ~ +125,000, with significant divergence
2. August unemployment rate: expected 4.1%, previous 4.1%
3. Average hourly earnings monthly rate: expected 0.3%; average hourly earnings annual rate expected 3.0%
Interpretation:
- Overheated employment + high wages → strengthens Fed rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields rise, suppressing tech stocks, LITE, Apple, and crypto assets
- Weak employment data → cooling rate hike expectations, favorable for risk assets.
Note: Fed officials clearly stated that next week's CPI is the truly decisive indicator for the September meeting, while nonfarm payrolls are more of an emotional disturbanceTo put it simply, there are three reasons for this wave of rise:
First, ADP was too weak, plus Waller's dovish remarks directly knocked down rate hike expectations, now bulls and bears are roughly evenly matched.
Second, Japan took action, intervening in the exchange rate causing the dollar to fall, coupled with rumors of Japan raising rates, both US bonds and the dollar are under pressure.
Third, crude oil surged then dropped back, the geopolitical situation hasn't worsened for now, and sentiment has eased a bit.
Today is Nonfarm Payrolls; with ADP like that, the big Nonfarm is very likely to meet expectations or be slightly lower, but that doesn't mean it can be seen as a reversal.
Nonfarm shouldn't be judged by numbers alone; structural data like unemployment rate and hourly wages are more important.
Moreover, whether it's the Fed, geopolitics, or Japan, it's still in the expectation stage, nothing concrete yet.
So unless Nonfarm is really much lower than expected again, I think it's more likely a rise followed by a fall.
Upwards, first watch 4520, 4535, if stronger then the 4565–4570 range.
If it can't go up, continue the C-wave correction, first support at 4455–4440, then down to 4395, 4355.
If it can't even hold 4455, then look further down to 4280, 4240, 4190.
Of course, if the data really surprises on the downside, then that's another story; once 4571 is passed, look at 4590, 4630, 4680, 4720 above.
$XAU #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Were you convinced by my call? I said $80K might not be enough—and BTC proved it. The price pushed all the way toward $82K, with a high around $82,279. I took profit a few days ago around the $77K area, so I missed part of the upside, but the direction was right. $80K failed to stop the momentum, and BTC continued higher. Now BTC is back near $80.9K after the pullback. The short-term setup is still constructive, although MA5 and MA10 are starting to flatten, suggesting momentum may be cooling. A$BTC JUST CLOSED AT A LEVEL WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN MONTHS
Bitcoin's latest daily close deserves more attention than another headline about a green candle.
BTC just recorded its highest daily close in the past four months, while adding approximately $19,700 in only 17 days.
That's a major acceleration.
Just a few weeks ago, the market was questioning whether Bitcoin could recover its structure.
Now the conversation is changing.
Momentum has returned, buyers have regained control of key levels, and BTC is once again challenging the upper part of its recent range.
But strong momentum creates a different problem:
Expectations rise faster than confirmation.
After a nearly $20K move in 17 days, the market doesn't need another massive candle to remain bullish.
It needs to prove that buyers are willing to defend the higher prices.
That's why I'm watching consolidation more than the next pump.
If BTC can absorb profit-taking, hold above reclaimed levels, and build another higher low, the current move starts looking less like a short-term squeeze and more like a genuine trend transition.
On the other hand, if the market becomes excessively leveraged and BTC loses its recent breakout levels, volatility could increase quickly.
So I'm keeping the framework simple:
Strong close = bullish signal.
Holding the breakout = confirmation.
Breaking resistance = continuation.
Losing support = reassessment.
Bitcoin has already made a big move.
There is no need to force another entry simply because the chart looks strong.
The best trends usually create opportunities after the initial excitement fades.
For now, the bulls have momentum.
The next challenge is turning that momentum into sustained structure.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The move is impressive. The reaction after the move matters even more.$NIGHT USDT
NIGHTUSDT dropping -2.37% to 0.021135—midnight volatility hitting! Support 0.02050, resistance 0.02200. Target 0.02300 🎯, stoploss 0.02020. Next move screams explosive rebound potential!BTC Review Last Night: The Tailwind of Risk Aversion Rises, Breakthrough Is Key, But Don't Get Overexcited
With a BTC label, let's talk about last night's market move. In one sentence: Profit from correct logic and trend, chase at the peak if you get the timing wrong.
What happened: A sudden break above 82,000
Last night, BTC violently surged from around 77,000, quickly reclaiming 80,000 and continuing to push higher, reaching a peak near 82,279. The bulls were definitely the main players last night, with shorts being continuously liquidated. The 4-hour volume supported a strong rebound.
Core driving force: Where did this tailwind come from?
The focus is on geopolitics. The US-Iran military conflict escalated significantly, with the US launching a new round of strikes in southern Iran causing casualties. The Strait of Hormuz shipping was pressured, causing crude oil and gold to surge. BTC, as "digital gold," was bought as a risk-hedging asset in this phase, which was the most direct trigger.
Secondly, macro factors also pushed: The US dollar index fell below 99 (due to yen appreciation), and long-term US Treasury yields declined, which is positive for Bitcoin. Additionally, continuous net inflows into BTC ETFs provided substantial buying support.
Pump structure: First liquidate shorts, then face divergence
A key detail: During the breakout of the 77,000-78,000 range, a large amount of short liquidation liquidity was gathered above. During the pump, short liquidations in the recent 4 hours accounted for over 70%, and this passive buy-side liquidation fuel accelerated the upward push. $BTC $BTC $ETH
Yesterday it was still hovering around 78K, today it shot straight up to 82K in one move.
The market never gives you a chance to hesitate.
Slapped my thigh? Yes, but just once.
Chasing 82K? Better to stay home and sleep—this kind of money feels too hot to handle.
Now hovering around 80K:
If you say it's strong, the top was just pushed back down;
If you say it's weak, it can't fall further.
Both bulls and bears are holding their breath; whoever loosens first will be the first to die.
⚡️ The rules haven't changed:
Don't make money you don't understand.
Don't open positions you can't hold.
The market can go crazy, but I won't follow the madness.
You can't make endless money, but you can lose it all.
If it stabilizes, I'll jump in; if not, I'll just watch.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Here’s my take first: I don’t think the Fed will hike in September. Waller and the other Fed officials have been under massive political pressure, so I’m taking every headline and public comment with a grain of salt. One sentence from a Fed official can move the dollar, bonds, stocks, and crypto globally. At the end of the day, U.S. economic interests will always come first. And honestly, another rate hike wouldn’t be painless. Higher rates would put more pressure on the U.S. economy, equities l$ZEC surged to 979 last night! Just shy of the 1000 round number, within reach! Can we short it now?
First, let's talk about ZEC's recent upward structure. Starting from the low of 452, it has made a very strong rally, reaching a high of 979.44 last night, and currently pulling back to around 948. The purple resistance box drawn a couple of days ago has been effectively broken and held, turning into support.
So, can we short now? If you want to short, wait for the price to rebound to around 960–970 and show clear signs of stagnation before lightly shorting. Stop loss must be set above 985–990. Targets: first look at 920–900, and if it breaks down, then 880.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $ATH USDT
ATHUSDT dipping -2.37% to 0.004654 on futures—quiet storm brewing! Support holds firm at 0.00450, resistance at 0.00480. Target 0.00500 rebound 🎯, tight stoploss 0.00440. Next move looks like a sharp snap-back if volume kicks in!#Crude oil supply disruptions repeat, oil prices fluctuate at high levels
Currently, will oil prices be stuck high due to geopolitical deadlocks, or will they be pulled back to the ground by the undercurrents of resumed passage?
On the surface, Saudi exports have fallen to multi-year lows, the Red Sea and Black Sea are frequently in emergency, and the bulls' story is flying high. But the market often changes course at its most frenzied moments. The Strait of Hormuz's shipping volume has rebounded to over 15 million barrels, indicating that traders and shipowners have adapted to the conflict through covert means. The panic period of the most severe oil shortage has actually passed. The hard supply gap is turning into friction costs, and the market's next game is how much more freight cost is needed to buy oil.
The market is likely to trend sideways downward next, with rallies being sold into.
Energy inflation and US debt
Oil prices consolidate at high levels but lose momentum, secondary inflation risks cool down, and the alarm over runaway US Treasury yields is temporarily lifted.
Dollar and gold
Oil price decline squeezes out some safe-haven funds, the dollar shifts into weak oscillation. Gold, supported by the de-dollarization logic, continues to stand firm at high levels.
BTC and risk assets
As long as the strait is not completely blocked, expectations of liquidity tightening will improve, funds will flow back into risk assets, and BTC is likely to see a rebound window.
The darkest moment of supply is passing; the geopolitical premium squeeze is inevitable. Oil price decline will open a breathing window for macro risk assets. Which side do you think will fold first in this oil price game?
$CL $BZ $XAUT
DYOR $DATA USDT
DATAUSDT sliding -2.37% at 0.1895—pressure building fast! Support at 0.1850, resistance 0.1950. Target 0.2050 🎯, stoploss 0.1820. Next move points to a fierce recovery bounce from these levels!#Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, debt pressure intensifies
US debt rushes toward $50 trillion, is $BTC the key to monetary credit revaluation?
US fiscal expansion is increasingly resembling the long-term macro narrative fuel for BTC. US Treasury debt surpassed $40 trillion in August, and the market's rumored $50 trillion path by 2030 essentially trades on the expectation that "debt and interest will continue to roll over."
The short-term market has actually priced in part of this in advance: BTC rose about 25% in August, with US spot BTC ETFs seeing a net inflow of approximately $3.52 billion that month; however, on September 1, there was a net outflow of $236 million, indicating that funds are not blindly chasing highs.
More importantly, the US debt pressure has not directly turned into a "dollar collapse trade." Instead, the Treasury has at least doubled the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks to $4 billion each time, actively supporting liquidity in the 10–30 year maturities.
So I think the market is really trading on this: the larger the fiscal deficit, the more there will be a need in the future to lower real interest rates, impose financial repression, or even dilute currency to digest the debt, thereby giving BTC a long-term valuation premium. But don't treat $50 trillion as an immediate trigger to pump BTC—the real short-term determinants of the market remain Treasury yields, the dollar, and ETF fund flows. BTC has just surged back from around 77K to $80,000, with a bullish macro narrative, but to keep rising, it needs liquidity support rather than relying on "America is doomed" type narratives.DON’T FOMO AFTER BTC’S REBOUND
$BTC is back near $81K, but a rebound doesn’t confirm a new trend. After strong Bitcoin ETF demand in August, early-September flows are cooling, making risk management more important than chasing.
$BTC → hold support
$ETH → regain momentum
$SOL → watch breakout + flows
$XRP → strong relative strength
$HYPE → strong structure
$ZEC → needs real demand
Keep positions small. Scale #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Recently, the Ethereum series has been quite strong. If you missed $UNI, you can take a look at $ARB. From the current spot secondary market perspective, the operational logic seems sound. The explosive popularity of the RH chain directly benefits UNI, followed by ARB. Even yesterday in the community group when discussing what price to get in, I always said just get in directly. Sometimes when the market opportunity comes, you have to get in first and then analyze later.
Robinhood Chain has only been online for two months, and the fee revenue has already surged to $13.05 million, a record high.
Based on the annualized revenue from the past 30 days, the current annualized fee income has reached about $110 million. What's more interesting is that this revenue is not entirely kept by Robinhood Chain. According to the cooperation agreement, 10% of the protocol's net income must be returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% going to the Arbitrum DAO treasury and 2% flowing to the Arbitrum Developer Guild.
In other words, based on the current cumulative revenue, about $1.3 million has already flowed to the Arbitrum ecosystem.
Although ARB can't match UNI, for those who missed UNI, it can still be considered an alternative. After a 5% short squeeze, I checked the derivatives structure and have two numbers for those still wanting to go long: first, funding rates across exchanges have all turned positive but remain mild, nowhere near the extreme levels of bulls paying aggressively; second, a large batch of new $BTC open interest contracts flooded in within 4 hours.
Reading these two together: new money is chasing the highs, but sentiment hasn't reached the greed peak yet—sounds like it could still go up, right? But don't forget the other side: the 1-hour RSI has already burned up close to the 80 overbought zone.
The conclusion: the mid-term hasn't hit the turning point yet, but jumping in now means you're catching the hottest short-term wave. Funding rates and OI are all out in the open, so don't just focus on the color of the candlesticks. Are you chasing now, or waiting? #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
BTC is now about $81,000, gold about $4,470/oz, so 1 BTC can be exchanged for about 18 ounces of gold. The key is not that gold has fallen, but that BTC has clearly started to outperform gold.
Previously, BTC was more like following the Nasdaq and tech stocks riding risk appetite, but now its correlation with gold has clearly strengthened. Behind this are geopolitical factors, oil prices, the dollar, and Federal Reserve policies all influencing pricing.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 56,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If the data is weak, expectations for rate cuts or no hikes will rise, pushing down the dollar and yields, which is good for both BTC and gold; if the data is too strong, rate hike expectations will rise, and risk assets will take a hit first.
But Waller has made it very clear: whether to hike in September depends more on August inflation, and the real battle is the CPI on September 11.
So now I’m not only watching BTC’s dollar price but also the BTC/gold ratio. Only if it continues to outperform gold can it be called truly strong.
$BTC $XAU Smart Money Collapse, Leveraged Traders Rise: FOMO Market Begins, Crypto Market Pricing Power Is Changing Hands Market observations indicate that the crypto market is undergoing a shift in pricing power: smart money, which relies on information and on-chain advantages, continues to underperform, while high-leverage, high-turnover speculative funds like leveraged traders have become the market leaders. FOMO sentiment is taking over the information gap, becoming the core driver of this phase of the market. In the traditional narrative of the crypto market, smart money usually refers to early on-chain accumulation addresses, institutional trading desks, insider wallets, and other participants with informational or capital advantages. Tracking their movements was once considered an important way for retail investors to gain excess returns. Leveraged traders, on the other hand, are speculative traders who do not rely on deep research but repeatedly increase positions with high leverage, chasing hot trends and quickly entering and exiting. Their behavioral characteristics include high turnover, high volatility tolerance, and strong herd mentality. The core judgment of this observation is: when smart money systematically underperforms and leveraged traders continue to profit, it means the market pricing logic has shifted from information asymmetry to being driven by sentiment and liquidity. Similar structures have appeared multiple times in history, such as during the 2021 meme market and before and after multiple altcoin seasons, when on-chain smart money addresses laid out positions early but waited long for realization, while momentum-driven chasing funds continuously rolled profits, with sentiment funds becoming the trend makers. Its importance is reflected on three levels: first, the success rate of simply copying smart money addresses declines, and on-chain data interpretation needs to incorporate sentiment, funding rates, and momentum indicators; second, FOMO-driven markets often have steep slopes and unpredictable durations, with upwardCore Drivers of the Price Increase
① Waller's "Dovish Shift" Ignites the Market (Biggest Catalyst)
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller sent a strong dovish signal, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting. As a key figure in the Fed's hawkish camp, Waller's shift to dovish directly confirms the trend of a slowing labor market and stabilizing inflation, leading the market to heavily bet that the Fed is about to open or expand a rate cut window.
Earlier, the August ADP employment data unexpectedly cooled down, weakening hawkish expectations, and both Bitcoin and gold prices stopped falling and rebounded. After Waller's remarks, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both came under pressure, with funds quickly flowing into high-elasticity assets and inflation-hedging instruments.
② Short Squeeze and ETF Funds Resonating
The price breaking through $80,000 triggered short covering, further amplifying the gains. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently seen positive changes in fund flows—last week net inflows reached $924 million, following nine consecutive trading days of net inflows.
③ Marginal Easing of Geopolitical Risks
The US-Iran military conflict has not escalated further, and the decline in oil prices has eased market concerns about runaway inflation, providing a window for risk assets to rebound. $BTC $ETH $SOL #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 Bitcoin just pushed back above $80K, reaching roughly $81.4K intraday as falling bond yields and softer expectations around Fed policy improved risk appetite. But I am less interested in the headline move than the liquidity behind it. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101.15M in net inflows on September 2, reversing a $236.46M outflow the previous day. Meanwhile, Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs all recorded outflows. That is a clear divergence. Institutional demand has not disappeared. It is El Niño Stirring Commodities: Under Calm U.S. Stocks, Market Begins Trading Supply Risks El Niño climate disruptions to global commodity supply are becoming the main theme in market trading. Against the backdrop of low volatility in U.S. stocks and unclear macro directions, capital is starting to price in weather-driven supply risks in advance, with volatility expectations for vulnerable supply categories like agricultural products rising significantly. El Niño refers to the climate phenomenon of abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which reshapes global precipitation and temperature distribution by altering atmospheric circulation. It is one of the most important weather variables affecting global agricultural yields and some industrial metal supplies. Historically, during El Niño years, Southeast Asia and Australia tend to experience droughts, threatening yields of crops such as palm oil, wheat, and sugar; abnormal rainfall patterns in West Africa impact cocoa cultivation; South America may face simultaneous floods and droughts, putting copper mining and port transportation in Peru and Chile at risk of disruption. Meanwhile, a warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses natural gas heating demand, causing structural differentiation on the energy side. For the market, the significance of this theme lies in the fact that U.S. stock volatility is currently low and macro directions lack clarity, while El Niño provides one of the few supply-side narratives with relatively high certainty. Unlike demand-driven markets, weather shocks directly affect the supply curve, and once production cuts in major producing areas materialize, price elasticity is very high. Therefore, despite the apparent calm in the stock market, futures market capital has already begun to position ahead by buying agricultural futures and call options to trade supply premiums, with implied volatility and open interest in related varieties rising in tandem.The House of Representatives canceled the last two weeks of sessions in September and rushed home to fight for seats; the U.S. midterm elections are coming.
For politicians, no matter how important the crypto compliance bill is, can it be more important than the seat they hold?
So, the bill was postponed.
On September 15, when the Senate votes, the boot will drop, but it will also fall through.
Looking at it now, it's not that simple.
The worst case is dragging it directly into the lame-duck period after the election.
What does that mean?
After the election, Congress may undergo a major reshuffle. Some lose, some change positions, and some start preparing for handover.
During this phase, the political motivation of veteran lawmakers declines, and new lawmakers have not yet truly taken office.
Want to push a highly controversial crypto bill? The difficulty will only increase.
What’s more troublesome is if the power structure of Congress changes after the midterm elections.
Then this matter might not just be delayed by a few months; it will have to be renegotiated, the pie redistributed, or even re-legislated.
There are so many unresolved issues,
banking consortia eyeing stablecoin profits, the two parties stabbing each other over crypto interests, and within the crypto industry, different companies competing for regulatory benefits.
With so many interests unresolved, how could it end with just one vote?
The market had already priced in some expectations of the bill’s passage in advance.
Now the delay means the regulatory gray area will continue, and the SEC can still slowly clean up the industry through litigation.
Institutions wanting to enter on a large scale will also find it hard to fully loosen their reins.
So, the short-term script of the bill passing, the boot dropping, and the crypto market taking offSanDisk's movement today, those who understand, understand—on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, capital has already started to rush ahead.
In the early session, it directly dropped to 1511, looking like it was going to collapse, but in the end, it was forcibly pulled back to close at 1554 in the green. Now the after-hours market is even at 1580, with nearly 6% turnover for the whole day and a trading volume of 13.4 billion USD.
This volume would be unusual on a normal day, but on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, the meaning is clearer: someone is positioning in advance.
The logic is actually very straightforward. Yesterday's small ADP report was a surprise low, with August ADP only 37,000, a new low for the year; tonight's nonfarm market expectation is only 56,000. If it disappoints again, the probability of a September rate hike will drop from 60%. When rate hike expectations cool down, who bounces first? Highly elastic AI storage stocks—like SanDisk, whose valuation is fully dependent on liquidity and expectations.
In short, the market is betting now: weak data -> no rate hike -> capital loosening -> high beta stocks take off. SanDisk's late-session surge today is capital betting on this scenario in advance.
But to be fair, if the nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly exceed expectations, those who rushed in today will be the ones left holding tomorrow. The pre-data celebration is always Schrödinger's rally.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
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Tonight at 20:30, the truth will be revealed!!$BTC back above $81,000 as Fed hike odds fade
Traders cut September rate-hike odds after dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller; Zcash jumped about 15% alongside the move.
#WallerEyesAugCPI
#BTCGoldRatioHigh Waller softened his tone on September 3rd, saying that if inflation continues its recent trend, he supports keeping interest rates unchanged; only if the data is strong would he consider supporting a rate hike. After his remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from over 70% to 50.2%.
Reuters survey expects August job additions between 56,000 and 58,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. July nonfarm payrolls were down 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. ADP reported 38,000, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been cooling for three consecutive months.
Bank of America said nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; CPI is the main course that will decide the September rate hike. Inflation remains the core anchor of current policy.
Three scenarios: Nonfarm below 40,000, rate hike expectations continue to fall, BTC has a chance to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000.
Nonfarm between 50,000 and 80,000, direction unclear, BTC continues to fluctuate. Nonfarm above 100,000, rate hike expectations solidify, BTC remains under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising; Brent crude broke through $95, expanding inflationary pressures. Among 178 PCE subcomponents, 54% rose over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, inflation is still rising, the market cannot price unilaterally. Don't bet on the data, wait for it to land before acting. Tonight's nonfarm is just the appetizer; next week's CPI is the decisive battleground for the September rate hike.
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$BTC #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
Oil prices $CL may still rise.
Although there are signs of easing in the Strait of Hormuz passage, disruptions in the Red Sea, Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities, and Saudi exports have not been completely eliminated, and supply-side risks have not truly been resolved.
As long as these factors continue to ferment, oil prices may remain high or even rise further.
The rise in oil prices will transmit along this chain:
Oil price increase → Inflation rebound → Cooling of rate cut expectations → Rise in US Treasury yields → Pressure on BTC.
Therefore, going forward, $BTC should not only focus on Federal Reserve speeches; oil prices are also a key variable.
Before supply risks are completely eliminated, I am more inclined to see oil prices continue to rise, and BTC will still face short-term pressure. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ETH has reached a critical position, but I firmly refuse to chase it.
After the surge, it started to pull back and is currently oscillating around 2500U, caught in a dilemma.
Although ETH-ETF funds continue to flow in and the staking lock-up ratio keeps rising, providing some support for the bulls,
passive institutional buying alone is far from enough. The market needs a large amount of new active buying to sustain the rally; it cannot rely solely on ETFs and staking to hold the price.
Some large holders on-chain have started to take profits, intensifying the high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, increasing the risk of volatile shakeouts.
At this stage, my strategy is to wait and see.
Three trading principles:
Do not chase highs, no matter how good the market narrative is, avoid impulsiveness;
Do not rush to bottom-fish, avoid entering recklessly during pullbacks;
Do not force trades, stay in cash if there’s no opportunity, frequent trading often leads to losses.
Signals from external markets are equally complex: Broadcom’s AI hardware segment exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised its full-year guidance, and computing power sentiment continues to benefit the crypto sector; on-chain, Robinhood chain trading volume keeps expanding, ARB protocol revenue narratives are heating up, and sector rotation is quietly unfolding. US tech stocks and crypto assets are interlinked, further amplifying market uncertainty.
For now, patience is the best choice. The market won’t end just because you miss one or two candlesticks. Protect your principal and wait for a higher certainty window before making a move.
#AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 📊 ETF FLOWS ARE TELLING A DIFFERENT STORY
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in around $101M, while $ETH , $SOL and $XRP products saw outflows after a strong run.
That doesn’t mean the market is bearish.
It simply shows that institutional money is becoming more selective.
$BTC is still attracting capital, while some altcoin exposure is seeing profit-taking.
For me, this is a reminder to watch the flows, not just the price.
Capital rotation matters.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh DON’T LET FOMO CONTROL YOUR CAPITAL
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH is holding near $2.5K. Market sentiment is improving, but that doesn’t mean every coin deserves to be chased.
New opportunities will always come.
Core → $BTC, $ETH
Growth → $SOL, $XRP, $ZEC
Higher Risk → $KAITO, $BEAT
You don’t need to catch every pump.
Protect your capital. Keep liquidity ready. Increase exposure only when the setup makes sense. $CAP short, this whale has dumped half and is using negative funding rates here to attract people to take the bag. Short it. The whale has dumped half of its position. It’s using negative funding rate to lure retail into catching the bag.1. The peak of this cycle is around 126,000 in October 2025, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%, which is narrower compared to the historical bear market drawdowns of 75-87%, indicating a bottom uplift after market institutionalization;
2. Driving structural changes: no longer just retail investors + halving; ETF capital flows, US stock market linkage, and global interest rates have become core variables;
3. Historical statistics: September is historically a weak month for BTC performance, with volatility risk still extremely high Securities StarWhen BTC rises, this group of “relatives” right next to it immediately starts running wild.
On September 3rd, MSTR rose over 13%, COIN rose about 11%, HIVE rose about 13%, and MARA also exceeded 10%. Even more interestingly, Strategy just ended a roughly 10-week pause and bought back 4,603 BTC.
This is the most interesting aspect of crypto stocks.
When BTC rises 1%, they don’t necessarily only rise 1%.
Because besides BTC, there are valuation, leverage, profit expectations, and market sentiment involved.
Especially MSTR.
Essentially, it’s putting BTC exposure into a stock account.
When the market is good, the elasticity is even greater than BTC.
But don’t forget, the reverse is also true.
So when you see MSTR, mining companies, and exchange stocks all rallying together, don’t just interpret it as “BTC is bullish.”
It’s more like telling you:
The market is starting to be willing again to pay for BTC’s high risk and high elasticity.
But this kind of money is the most realistic.
It chases the rise the fastest.
And when withdrawing, it runs away the fastest.
$BTC $COIN $MSTR Lessons from High-Leverage Whales: Looking at Brother Maji's Positions, What Should We Learn and What Should We Avoid
Recently, the whole network has been buzzing about Brother Maji's contract positions worth over 100 million successfully turning losses into profits.
40x BTC and 25x ETH high-leverage long positions reversed losses against the trend, with a total position reaching 132 million USD.
Many retail investors see whales making money and their first reaction is to blindly follow: increase leverage, stubbornly hold through trends, and mindlessly copy trades.
But the vast majority only see the comeback results, not the extreme risks and capital reserves behind them.
1. Whales Dare to Use High Leverage Not Because They Are Reckless
Ordinary people have a huge misconception about whale trading: they think high leverage means high gambling.
The real logic is exactly the opposite:
Whales use high leverage relying on unlimited tolerance capital.
When the market spikes, short-term reversals, or approaches liquidation, whales can continuously add margin to withstand volatility.
Even if partially shaken out multiple times, as long as the main trend is correct, they can eventually turn the tide with time and capital strength.
Retail investors are completely opposite:
Limited funds, no room to add positions, can't withstand spikes, one mistake leads to total liquidation.
The same high leverage is called strategic play by whales, but a gamble with life by retail.
2. The Whale Mindset Worth Learning for Ordinary People
We may not learn leverage, but we must learn the mindset.
1) Only trade the main trend, not noise
Whales' main positions are always concentrated in core assets BTC and ETH.
They never get obsessed with small altcoins, frequently change directions, or chase minor fluctuations.
Big money profits from trends; small money dies from frequent trading.
2) Accept trial and error, don’t expect every trade to win
Whales also get stopped out by spikes, partial losses, and multiple small losses.
But their trading system is: many small mistakes, one big win covers all losses.
Retail investors’ biggest weakness:
Cannot accept losses, stubbornly hold losing trades, losing more and more, and one bad trade ruins all profits.
3) Stay firm on direction, don’t be swayed by short-term emotions
During this round of volatility, panic and bearish sentiment were everywhere.
Whales still firmly hold the bullish main logic, unaffected by short-term market noise.
Those who make big money dare to stick to the main line amid chaos.
3. Three Operations Ordinary People Must Absolutely Not Imitate
This is the root cause of 90% of retail losses: blindly copying whale operations.
1) Don’t copy ultra-high leverage
25x, 40x leverage has extremely low tolerance.
Any random non-farm payroll, spike, or negative news can trigger immediate liquidation.
2) Don’t stubbornly hold losses and keep adding
Whales add positions as a tactic; retail adding positions is an abyss.
Without sufficient capital backing, holding losing trades only ends in liquidation.
3) Don’t blindly copy on-chain data
On-chain positions are always lagging!
The profits you see are from old positions hours ago.
By the time you enter, whales have most likely already reduced, taken profits, or adjusted positions.
4. Summary: Learn the Mindset, Not the Positions
Brother Maji’s recent turnaround taught all traders the most realistic lesson:
Trend thinking can be learned, patience can be learned, trial-and-error systems can be learned.
High leverage, stubborn holding, and heavy bets on life must never be learned.
The harshest truth in trading:
Positions others can afford to lose, you may not.
Others’ profit scripts don’t fit your capital.
Learning to borrow, respect, and match your own risk is the key to long-term profitability.Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, TD, Scotiabank, PNC, Capital One, Fidelity, and 21 North American financial institutions are advancing a joint stablecoin project. Institutions from Europe and Asia-Pacific are also involved, but no individual names have been reported yet.
This initiative first emerged in October last year, when 10 banks were evaluating it; now the lineup has expanded to 21, indicating growing willingness to participate and that this is not a minor effort. The real highlight is the choice of approach—they plan to use a public blockchain rather than the private permissioned chains many banks previously preferred. If this direction is realized, it means traditional finance is no longer content with "building a chain behind closed doors" but aims to truly integrate into the public chain ecosystem and compete on the same infrastructure as existing stablecoins.
The timeline targets launching the USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027, with the euro stablecoin as the next priority, and future expansion to other G7 currencies is not ruled out. Application scenarios focus on wholesale settlement, institutional trading, cross-border payments, and retail payments.
Which public chain will be used has not been announced yet; historically, joint banking projects often progress slower than expected, and some have even been abandoned midway. Reaching consensus among 21 institutions is already challenging, and with more than two years left before implementation, there are many variables.
If this plan proceeds on schedule, do you think bank-backed stablecoins will capture market share from USDT and USDC, or will they open a new track focused on institutional and cross-border settlement?
#稳定币 #传统金融 History doesn't simply repeat, but it rhymes. Let me compare for you: every time during the US stock earnings season when tech stocks beat expectations, BTC follows with a rally.
Around this time last year, tech stocks beat earnings expectations, and BTC rose from over 70,000 to over 80,000. This year is earnings season again, Broadcom and Snowflake both beat expectations, BTC is now at 80,800. Doesn't the script look very similar?
I lost 200,000 USDT and am recovering now. Studying historical trends is my daily homework. Current support is at 80,500/80,000, resistance at 81,200/82,280.
Trading plan: open a position with 5,000 USDT, buy at 80,500, stop loss at 80,000, target 81,200, if it breaks through, watch 82,280. Never hold a position without a stop loss; just use historical patterns as a reference, don't blindly copy.
Earnings season funds are relatively warm, BTC is very likely to oscillate upward. Do you think history will repeat this time?
$BTC #财报观察员博通超预期Snowflake上调指引 $BTC reclaiming $80K matters more than the headline gain. $ETH is keeping pace, while $SOL lags slightly, suggesting this is a broad risk bid rather than a narrow rotation. Still, pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve argues for discipline. I would trust the move more if it holds through the next macro catalyst.
Not advice, just analysis.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $CL Nonfarm Night, Shorting Crude Oil: Every Weakness in Employment Data Fuels the Bears
Tonight, the global market's attention is once again focused on the US Nonfarm Payroll report. For crude oil traders, this data is not just a macroeconomic barometer but also the fuse that determines the short-term direction of oil prices. I choose to stand with the bears—not because oil prices have fallen enough already, but because the current fundamentals, technicals, and macro expectations are forming a rare downward resonance. The worse the nonfarm data, the stronger the logic for shorting crude oil; even if the data is acceptable, the Damocles sword of oversupply still hangs high.
1. Why is Nonfarm Payroll so Important to Oil Prices?
Crude oil is one of the most "macro" commodities. Unlike gold, which has safe-haven attributes, or agricultural products, which have weather premiums, oil prices essentially reflect global industrial activity. The Nonfarm Payroll report is the most direct gauge of the health of the US, the world's largest economy.
When nonfarm data is weak, the market interprets it as a slowdown in economic momentum, with industrial production and demand for travel under pressure, leading to downward revisions in oil demand expectations. At the same time, weak data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the US dollar. But the key issue is: the support a weaker dollar provides to oil prices is often offset or even outweighed by the downward pressure from weaker demand. During recession-driven trading phases, it is common for oil prices and the dollar to fall together.
We are currently in this phase. The market has shifted from "inflation trades" to the threshold of "recession trades," and the nonfarm data is the hand pushing the door open. Initial jobless claims at 206,000 have exceeded expectations, continuing claims are rising, job vacancies are falling, and cracks in the labor market are widening. If tonight's nonfarm confirms this trend, crude oil bears will receive the most direct fuel.
2. Supply Side: OPEC+ Production Increases and Shale Oil Operating at High Levels
Poor employment data only tells the demand side story. What truly reassures shorts is the certainty on the supply side.
OPEC+ has already begun gradually restoring production, with some member countries overproducing ahead of schedule to balance their finances. Saudi Arabia talks about flexible adjustments but is effectively exchanging market share for oil prices. US shale oil production remains at historic highs; improved well completion efficiency means fewer rigs do not translate into lower output. Non-OPEC producers like Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to increase output, with global supply taps opening simultaneously.
Under this supply pattern, any rebound in oil prices triggered by macro sentiment will be quickly extinguished by ample supply. If nonfarm data performs poorly, it will only accelerate this process: downward revisions in demand expectations combined with continued loose supply will fully open the downside space for oil prices.
3. Technicals: Clear Distribution Pattern of Sharp Rises and Slow Declines
From the daily chart, WTI crude oil struggling below $70 mirrors Bitcoin's movement below $80,000: sharp rises followed by slow declines, with highs progressively lower and each rebound weaker than the last.
WTI has failed three times recently to break the $70 integer level; the 20-day moving average is pressing down, and prices have not effectively held above it. Brent faces strong resistance in the $73-$74 range, with every rebound to this area triggering a new round of selling. The monthly spread has shifted from spot premium to futures premium, a classic signal of oversupply and bearish forward outlook. The MACD on the daily level repeatedly shows bearish divergence, with rebound momentum continuously weakening.
Technicals have given a clear bias: a complete bearish structure with bulls lacking strong support. If nonfarm data aligns with the macro picture, a break below previous lows in oil prices is highly probable.
4. Three Nonfarm Scenarios and Response Strategies
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly misses expectations (new jobs below 120,000, unemployment rate rises above 4.4%). This is the most bearish scenario for oil prices. The market will quickly switch to recession trades, and oil prices may directly break below $68, even testing the $65 level. Bears can hold positions after the data release and add to positions if key support breaks.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm slightly weaker than expected (new jobs 130,000-160,000, unemployment around 4.3%). Oil prices may fall first then rebound, but the rebound will be limited. Supply-side pressure remains, so a rebound near $70 is still a shorting opportunity.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm better than expected. Oil prices may rebound in the short term but sustainability is doubtful. Given the current backdrop of ample supply and weak demand, a single data improvement is unlikely to change the medium-term trend. A rebound to the $70-$71 area is actually a better shorting position.
5. Risk Control: Bears Also Need Discipline
The biggest risk in shorting crude oil comes from sudden supply disruptions, such as escalations in Middle East geopolitical conflicts or unexpected additional production cuts by OPEC+. These events can trigger short squeezes in a very short time. Therefore, position sizes must be controlled within tolerable limits, and stop-loss levels must be clearly defined.
Specifically, if WTI rebounds near $70, short positions can be established with stop-loss above $71.5, target $68, and if broken, look down to $65. For Brent, short positions can be placed in the $73-$74 range, stop-loss above $75.5, target $70, and if broken, look down to $68.
Nonfarm is just the fuse; the trend is fundamental
Tonight's nonfarm data is important, but it is not the fundamental reason to short crude oil. The core logic for shorting lies in: continued loose supply, weakening demand, a complete bearish technical structure, and an unfavorable macro environment. Nonfarm data only accelerates this direction.
When the global economic engine slows, when OPEC+ opens the supply gates, and when spread structures point to oversupply, every rebound in oil prices is merely accumulating energy for the next decline. Tonight, let the data speak and the trend be realized. The patience of the bears will eventually be rewarded. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
I am Cige, Broadcom and Snowflake have both reported their results. The AI chain transmission is accelerating.
Broadcom's Q3 revenue and earnings both exceeded market expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue rising to $16.7 billion. Custom AI chips and networking businesses continue to benefit. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below analyst forecasts, and the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading before narrowing losses. AI demand remains, but the expectations for the speed of performance delivery have increased. Broadcom's network chips are the core link for AI data center interconnection; the slightly lower guidance indicates that market expectations have outpaced the fundamentals.
Snowflake is another line. Q2 product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increased to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with the stock price rising more than 21% in after-hours trading. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software applications. Snowflake has validated that AI-driven data consumption is accelerating, not just compute power procurement.
Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, with demand for compute infrastructure continuing to grow. The AI chain transmission from chips to servers to networks to data clouds is happening, but the pace varies at each link. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; savor this. people look and this and annualize it ($4m * 365 = $1.46b) which is sizeable vs $HOOD's 2025 revs of $4.5b and $1.9b net income
but we all know we'd be lucky if this mania lasts a month...$HOOD #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
On Friday 9.4, the midday gold outlook was accurately predicted.
The suggested short position idea saw the market press down and fall as expected, smoothly reaching the target level.
During the high-level consolidation phase, judging resistance levels is especially critical.
Market fluctuations won’t always follow a one-sided trend; a pullback under pressure is a normal market rhythm.
Trading is all about preparing plans in advance, identifying key levels clearly, and patiently waiting for the market to validate the idea.
Don’t be fooled by brief rallies; stay calm in your judgment, and always prioritize risk control.