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Opening the exchange's red and green flashing interface, my first reaction isn't to calculate how much I've earned, but to close it and go back to sleep.
The news is messier than the weather forecast; today they say institutions are entering, tomorrow they say regulators are cracking down. Believing it can drive you crazy.
I tried watching the 5-minute candlestick for swing trading, but the fees ate a chunk, and my mind almost split.
Later, I simply converted most to $USDC, steadily earning interest, at least I won't wake up in the middle of the night to check the market.
The remaining $BTC I treat as a family heirloom, too lazy to move it whether it rises or falls, anyway I don't expect it to buy a house.
A friend uses a quant bot, adjusted parameters for three months, but returns haven't beaten a money market fund.
He said the most expensive tuition in this field is thinking you can beat market volatility.
My alarm now is only for waking up, not for reminding me to buy the dip or sell the top.
In the community, people shout "this time is different" every day, but the historical scripts just repeat the same few pages.
After hearing too many liquidation stories, I think those who can exit steadily are the real winners.
I don't look at the master’s door-shaped charts, only whether my bank balance can withstand going to zero.
I set my regular investment day on payday, treating it as forced pocket money savings; losing it doesn't hurt.
The funniest thing is some people sell their houses to rush in, then house prices rise, coins fall, and they get hit from both sides.
In the end, this game isn't about who has better skills, but who has a more Zen mindset.
I’m too lazy to even set stop-loss orders, because if I set them, I’ll itch to cancel them.
So I just set an annual alarm, check once a year, and let whatever happen happen in between.
Anyway, the money is spare cash, the time is
Friends, the anxious ones are those who want to get rich overnight.
Clocking off, hotpot tonight as usual, let the market do whatever it wants. $CORE deposit delayed again! The real big test for CORE is postponed to 5 PM today
The deposit maintenance time has been postponed again, directly rescheduled to 5 PM today.
Many people are still fantasizing that once the channel opens, there will be a violent rebound to break even. But reality is harsh; a delay does not mean the risk disappears, it only pushes the risk outbreak a few hours later.
Previously, deposits were restricted, and a large amount of chips were locked on the chain.
Positions trapped, staked tokens to redeem, and excess reward chips—all cannot be transferred into exchanges, temporarily holding down selling pressure.
When the gate fully opens at 5 PM, the long-accumulated chips will gain the freedom to be transferred out.
Once a large volume of chips floods into exchanges for liquidation, selling pressure will instantly hit the market.
Of course, there is another possibility: if very few chips are transferred out on-chain, the landing of the boot will also trigger a short-term pulse rebound.
Don’t be fooled by short-term market rises.
Deposit resumption only unlocks the transfer channel; it does not create buying pressure out of thin air.
Whether it rebounds or crashes depends entirely on the actual scale of chips transferred out on-chain at that time and whether the market buying power can withstand the impact.
Putting all hopes of breaking even on the deposit resumption is essentially a high-risk gamble. Today I want to expose a trash QDII: China Asset Management Global Technology Pioneer (QDII) annual biggest flip-flop, don't be fooled by the name! I was fooled before, it's so infuriating.
It surged 90% in the first half of the year, grabbing crazy attention, but then plunged nearly 19% in July alone, bottoming out among all QDIIs in the market! 😡 I got harvested for 10%!
What's even more ridiculous is that you’d think it’s a global tech allocation, but the quarterly report exposes the truth: US stock holdings plummeted to 16%, while A-shares + Hong Kong stocks accounted for nearly 60%! 😂
The fund manager justifies it by saying "QDII quota is limited" and fills the gap with Hong Kong Stock Connect, isn’t this just exploiting contract loopholes to cut retail investors?
The most infuriating part is that the 1.2% management fee is still charged without fail, but all losses caused by style drift are borne entirely by the investors. For those wanting to buy "global assets" to diversify risk, I strongly advise you to avoid this like a plague! Before buying, be sure to dig into the quarterly report to see the hidden underlying holdings, don’t be fooled by the facade of the top ten heavy holdings! 🤡
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice$CORE revealed through yesterday's announcement that the dog whales are fabricating lies again, because the over-issuance is not just 150 million; from the sharply increased circulating supply, it looks like 350 million, nearly 400 million. Does that sound familiar? That's right, 350 million are tokens unclaimed by miners. Are they planning to dump everything and run? To protect their interests, exchanges have already stopped all deposits and withdrawals of staked coins. Two extra nodes appeared out of nowhere? Besides the dog whales' manipulation, nearly 20 billion yuan worth of retail investors have been exploited over 3 years.#沃勒：August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September
Three consecutive wins in September
I am Brother Ci, tonight at 8:30, August nonfarm payrolls, the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
Waller softened his tone on September 3rd, saying if inflation continues recent progress, he supports keeping rates unchanged; if data is strong, he would consider supporting a rate hike. After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike fell from over 70% to 50.2%.
Reuters survey expects August to add 56,000 to 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. July nonfarm was negative 23,000, May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. ADP gave 38,000, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been cooling for three consecutive months.
Bank of America says nonfarm is just an appetizer, CPI is the main course deciding September rate hikes. Inflation is the core anchor of current policy.
Three scenarios. Nonfarm below 40,000, rate hike expectations continue to fall, BTC has a chance to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000. Nonfarm between 50,000 and 80,000, direction unclear, BTC continues to fluctuate. Nonfarm above 100,000, rate hike expectations confirmed, BTC continues to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising, Brent breaks through $95, inflationary price pressures are expanding. Among 178 PCE sub-items, 54% have year-on-year increases over 3%, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, inflation is still rising, the market cannot price unilaterally. Don't bet on data, wait for it to land before acting. Tonight's nonfarm is just the appetizer, next week's CPI is the decisive battlefield for September rate hikes. $BTC BTC vs ETH: BULL MARKET SHOWDOWN 🔥
**Current Price Check - 7:29 AM**
**$BTC $80,671 (-0.68%)** 🟠
No.1 | Digital Gold | 30D: +24.82%
**$ETH $2,497 (-0.34%)** 🔵
No.2 | Infrastructure | 30D: +30.90%
### **Here’s the story:**
BTC is the leader. When it moves, the entire market follows.
ETH is the engine. DeFi, L2s, NFTs all run on it.
**90 Day Performance Tells It All:**
ETH: **+59.22%** vs BTC: **+32.57%**
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #BullRun #Trading #DailyOrbitBTC vs ETH: BULL MARKET SHOWDOWN 🔥 **Current Price Check - 7:29 AM** **$BTC $80,671 (-0.68%)** 🟠 No.1 | Digital Gold | 30D: +24.82% **$ETH $2,497 (-0.34%)** 🔵 No.2 | Infrastructure | 30D: +30.90% ### **Story abhi ye hai:** BTC leader hai. Jab wo chalta hai poora market follow karta hai. ETH engine hai. DeFi, L2s, NFTs sab isi pe chalte hain. **90 Day Performance Bata Rahi Hai Sab:** ETH: **+59.22%** vs BTC: **+32.57%** ETH ne is baar zyada momentum dikhaya 💪 ### **Next Move Kya Hoga?** **PSOL has risen above one hundred dollars, and BTC's breakthrough finally shows some promise!
#比特币再破80000美元
$BEAT's altcoin sector is generally warming up this round, and it has also caught a breather, but I am still more focused on volume rather than price gains. The first two phases of BEAT2.0 have already been implemented; AI music and game storytelling continue uninterrupted, but things like the Agent wallet and skill marketplace are still on the roadmap.
After the overall market suddenly warmed up, small-cap coins like $BICO, which had fallen deeply earlier, naturally tend to catch up, but the independent catalyst brought by Upbit has already been fully absorbed. The key now is if it just follows BTC's pull-up with a quick drop in volume afterward, then it’s still rotation, not a trend reversal.
The logic behind $HYPE in the past two days is actually solid. It has officially entered Hashdex's NCIQ with a 3.36% weighting, making it the fifth largest holding, just behind SOL's 3.79%. This means it has gained passive allocation access through an index ETF for the first time, and combined with protocol buybacks, its capital structure is much healthier than ordinary altcoins.
$BTC is currently near 81,000, and after standing above 80,000, the first thing to watch is whether this level can hold as support; $OKB has risen to around 109.8 dollars, up about 3.6% in 24 hours, with early-stage shakeout starting to recover; $SOL has held above 103 dollars, with trading format upgrades on September 9 and Alpenglow activation on the 28th—both catalysts are on the way, and the structure remains relatively strong as long as it stays above one hundred dollars.
#比特币再破80000美元 TRUMP/USDT Prediction
TRUMP/USDT trades at $TRUMP2.35.
Key Levels & History
* Low: Dropped to $TRUMP1.36 before buyers stepped in.
* High: Spiked to $TRUMP3.67 before cooling off.
* Current: MA20 support holds at $2.16.
Best Prediction
* Next Target: Rebound toward $2.80–$3.00 if $2.30 holds.
* All-Time Outlook: Breaking $3.67 opens the path to a new high of $4.50+. Drop below $2.16 resets price to $1.80.
Will it break $3.67 or drop below $2.16? $FIL is optimistic about the storage sector, but it's better to invest in AR. AR has already pulled back to the previous high, while FIL has dropped another 50%.👀 Something strange is happening with WLD…
While many are watching the price, I am watching the narrative: digital identity + AI + crypto.
If Worldcoin manages to turn that narrative into real adoption, the price could be the last piece to react.
Is WLD undervalued or are we just seeing smoke?
#WLD #Crypto #WorldcoinETH is back near 2500, but BTC is still above 80,000. So who is really holding things back this time?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Just now when I checked the market, $BTC was around 80,800, $ETH at 2500.9. On the surface, both are at high levels, but the actual feeling is completely different.
BTC holding above 80,000 means bulls haven’t retreated yet; ETH is rising along but never touched 2530, with 2500 feeling more like a psychological barrier. On the other hand, $ZEC surged directly to around 940, up over 14% intraday, showing that sentiment in thematic coins is clearly crazier than mainstream ones.
This is a bit strange.
If funds had truly returned broadly, ETH shouldn’t just be holding 2500, and SOL shouldn’t still be stuck around 103. It feels more like BTC stabilizes first, then hot money looks for high volatility exits.
I won’t chase longs just because ETH holds 2500. Only if it breaks above 2530 is there room to target 2600; if it falls below 2480, then 2500 could turn into resistance this time.
There’s also the non-farm payroll tonight. Brothers, do you think ETH is gearing up for a catch-up rally, or has thematic coins already stolen the spotlight?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 🌙 Night Session Volatility | BTC Strongly Breaks Through 81,000
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC surged overnight from 77,000 to over 81,000, with a daily increase of about 5.3%, hitting a nearly four-month high. Approximately $203 million in liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with short liquidations at $188 million and long liquidations only $14.44 million — mainly short positions were liquidated, over 11,389 traders wiped out. The largest single liquidation was $5.26 million.
👤 Whale Movements
Maji Big Brother (Huang Licheng) significantly recovered about $100 million in BTC long positions 📈 Quick news shows he has closed HYPE long positions, with a single floating profit exceeding $4 million.
🔥 Market Sentiment
Bullish voices are rising on the chart, with frequent mentions of "holding above 80,000, aiming for 100,000," and FOMO sentiment spreading.
⚠️ Personal Judgment: High Probability of a Bull Trap
The driver is only a sentiment rebound caused by Waller's dovish tilt plus a weaker dollar, not a fundamental demand recovery. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains above 60%, US-Iran conflicts push up oil prices and inflation, macro conditions have not eased; 83K–86K is a previous dense supply zone, spot selling pressure awaits release. Volume and price are supported by sentiment, holding above 80K is difficult to sustain, it is not recommended to chase highs before retesting the 77K support.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The Three Great Sages of America
Each of the three great American sages has their own operational targets. Trump trades T between $70 and $90 for Brent crude oil; when it hits $70, he strikes Iran, and at $90, he tacos again. Bassett watches the US Treasury yields; when the 30-year Treasury yield reaches 5.2%, he launches verbal attacks. Walsh watches the probability of a rate hike in September; if the probability drops to 30%, he pushes hard, and if it rises to 70%, he babbles. The three great sages each play their own game, independent yet interfering with each other.
The logic is that Trump controls oil prices to keep Eurasian allies at a high inflation level, forcing them to raise interest rates, which leads to large capital inflows into US AI that outperforms their domestic inflation. Bassett manipulates Treasury yields to make way for AI corporate bonds. Walsh withholds forward guidance, releasing data arbitrarily, verbally hawkish but data-wise dovish, aiming to buy time for AI to continue developing. Currently, the US is in a situation where it can neither cut nor raise interest rates.That night, I was staring at my phone screen at midnight when a huge bearish candle completely wiped out my account.
I didn’t set a stop loss on my contract position, and just during the time I went to the bathroom, the SMS notification sounded like debt collection calls.
Later, I learned my lesson and only keep some spot assets in my wallet, never daring to touch those 10x or 100x leverages again.
You ask about mining? My neighbor spent tens of thousands buying a mining rig, but the electricity bill was more expensive than the $DOGE he mined.
Now he’s selling the machine as scrap metal and complains to me every day that it would have been better to buy second-hand graphics cards.
I know a guy who specializes in airdrops, registering dozens of accounts to farm rewards, but ended up getting rekt by the project team with gas fees.
The most surreal thing in this circle is: you’re eyeing their interest, but they’re eyeing your principal.
The news always says some country has become compliant again, but when you wake up, the policy direction changes faster than a girlfriend’s mood.
My current operating manual has only three rules: don’t chase new highs, don’t catch falling knives, don’t join groups.
Those “insider tips” in groups, nine out of ten are shills, and the remaining one is outdated.
A few days ago, I saw a new project whose whitepaper reads like a fantasy novel, with consensus mechanisms all made up.
I quietly swapped my little $SOL for stablecoins, at least I can sleep soundly.
Honestly, after all this turmoil, my biggest gain isn’t about profits or losses, but curing my fantasy of getting rich quick.
Now I treat virtual coins like game tokens—happy when I win, and losing doesn’t affect my meals.
If you really ask me for a secret, it’s to watch the market less, do more manual work, and always value principal over profits.
One last reminder: don’t click on those candy coupons exchanges give you; a slip of the finger is a fee.
Alright, enough tears for now, I’m going to close the app and binge-watch some shows. #BTC
The Ministry of Finance has taken action, repurchasing 12.5 billion in government bonds, doubling the amount next Monday.
It's not the Federal Reserve flooding the market, but the effect is similar—the long-term bond yields have been pushed down.
The US dollar weakens, BTC and gold both rise. The market reaction is very honest.The market is standing at a high level, and tonight the non-farm payroll data will be released. Here's a forward-looking analysis of the crypto market.
Personal insights on the market, not investment advice.
Yesterday, the market saw a strong bullish candlestick that led the entire scene, with BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, and OKB all rising across the board. Overnight bullish sentiment exploded completely, and the bears were once again crushed.
Performance of each coin in this rally:
$BTC: +5.5% increase, the market leader driving overall market sentiment recovery.
$ETH: +5.2% increase, following BTC's recovery steadily.
$SOL: +6.1% increase, the most elastic mainstream coin, with very fast price changes and high volatility.
$ZEC: nearly +17% increase, privacy theme fully exploded, hitting a new stage high with strong momentum.
$OKB: +3.6% increase, platform token steadily recovering with relatively stable movement.
At 20:30 tonight, the US non-farm payroll data will be the biggest turning point for this high-level market, directly deciding whether the market continues to squeeze shorts or plunges for a correction.
Three speculative scenarios:
1: Non-farm data is weak (bullish for crypto)
2: Non-farm data is strong (bearish for crypto)
3: Data meets expectations (neutral)
Brothers, let's chat together. Facing the current high level combined with the non-farm data, are you more bullish or bearish? What kind of chart will each of the three data scenarios draw?
Are you preparing to enter the market to speculate tonight, or just watching quietly? Which coin do you hold now? $BEAT not cooled off yet? There's movement again around $0.12
BEAT's recent trend has indeed been quite exciting.
According to the latest data from CoinGecko, Audiera (BEAT) is currently priced at about $0.124, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $7.79 million, a market cap of around $42.3 million, and a circulating supply of about 340 million tokens. Over the past 7 days, the price range has been between $0.118 and $0.161, indicating that short-term funds remain very active.
Even more striking, BEAT reached an all-time high of $11.23 in June this year, and now it has dropped about 98.9% from that peak.
But recent data shows some support has appeared around the $0.12 level.
If this level can hold steady, and trading volume continues to stay in the multi-million dollar range, there is still a chance in the short term to retest the $0.14–$0.16 range.
Of course, BEAT's current market cap is only a bit over $40 million, and liquidity is relatively limited. This kind of coin can surge sharply when rising, but can also dump very quickly.
So I will focus on the $0.117–$0.12 range.
Hold that, and the story can continue; if it breaks below, don't rush to catch the falling knife.Short-term shorts were squeezed out overnight for $415 million, BTC surged to 81,000 before sliding back to 80,700.
What do you see? The most striking thing on today's chart is not the slow climb, but the cluster of liquidation bars after the sharp rally.
Waller's dovish remarks first ignited risk appetite, and the crowded short positions turned into fuel for the rise.
Currently on OKX, BTC is around $80,715, ETH around $2,500, and SOL around $103.5.
Mainstream coins are also slightly retreating, indicating this wave looks more like a short-term short squeeze test, not a confirmed trend.
I think what’s really worth watching is whether the price can turn 81,000 into support and whether it can continue to rise after volume expands, rather than chasing after seeing a big bullish candle.
What to do? I will wait for a pullback near 81,000 without breaking it before considering going long, or if it rallies without volume and falls back below 80,000, then switch to caution.
If BTC closes below 80,000 consecutively while liquidations continue to expand, this short squeeze logic fails.
Do you prefer A: follow the trend after pullback confirmation, or B: take profits early if the rally lacks strength?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5%
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🌅 币圈早报 | 2026 年 9 月 4 日 ─── 【隔夜行情】 copy | 币种 | 价格 | 24h 涨跌 | | --- | ------- | ------ | | BTC | $81,137 | +6.14% | | ETH | $2,504 | +5.33% | 行情总结： • 比特币强势突破 8 万美元，站稳 8.1 万 • 以太坊跟随大涨，收复 2500 美元 • 市场情绪高涨，多头全面发力 ─── 【重大新闻】 1. 比特币总市值突破 1.6 万亿美元 机构资金持续流入，市场信心增强 2. 加密市场总市值突破 2.9 万亿美元 24 小时交易量超 488 亿美元 3. 特朗普家族 DeFi 平台持续发酵 WLFI 代币上线多交易所，市场关注度高 4. 香港加密新规实施一周 亚洲市场反应积极，交易量回升 ─── 【空投信息】 可申领： • 暂无紧急项目 可布局： • OpenSea（NFT 龙头，空投预期强） • Base（Coinbase L2，确定性高） • Polymarket（预测市场，2026 大热） • Hyperliquid（Fed internal divisions become public: Waller refutes Wash's proposal to "weaken forward guidance" The internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the policy communication framework is becoming public. Waller openly refutes Wash's proposal to weaken forward guidance, and the debate over how the Fed should convey interest rate path information to the market in the future has become a market focus. Forward guidance is the Fed's core communication tool to convey future interest rate path expectations to the market through meeting statements, dot plots, and officials' speeches. Its role is to anchor market expectations and reduce asset price volatility caused by policy surprises. Wash advocates weakening forward guidance, arguing that over-committing to future policy paths restricts the Fed's policy flexibility, and the market should rely more on actual economic data and the Fed's real actions to judge interest rate trends; Waller counters this view, emphasizing that forward guidance is indispensable for anchoring inflation expectations and managing market interest rate expectations. Recklessly weakening guidance may cause the market to lose its policy reference frame, thereby increasing volatility. The significance of this public debate lies in its occurrence during a critical window when the Fed's policy framework and leadership face adjustments. The strength of forward guidance directly determines how the market interprets policy: if guidance is weakened, market volatility around FOMC meetings may systematically increase, and interest rate expectations pricing will rely more on data releases themselves; if guidance is maintained, the market can obtain a clearer reference for the interest rate path. The publicization of internal divisions also means that the Fed's future communication style and decision transparency are uncertain, and the market needs to recalibrate its framework for interpreting policy signals, which itself is an important factor affecting asset pricing After trading A-shares, looking at US stocks and crypto feels much simpler 😅
With A-shares, once policies come out, all logic gets messed up, and sometimes indicators feel like decorations, unpredictable.
US stocks and crypto are different — global capital flows, strong interconnections, and a bunch of data for you to see: interest rates, US Treasury yields, ETF flows, non-farm payrolls, etc.
What you need to watch is mostly out in the open 📊
Not to mention now there's Zhang Ming's card: 40 trillion in US debt.
Do you think they can mess this up?
If they really do, the US dollar credit collapses, no one buys US debt, and everything falls apart afterward.
So most likely, they won't let the system collapse; they'll just keep printing money and diluting.
That's why I always say, don't be scared by the talk about rate hikes.
There will be short-term volatility, but the long-term direction is written in the debt numbers.HYPE/USDT Prediction Post
Past History: HYPE hit a low near $HYPE38.16, rallied above $HYPE70, dropped back to $HYPE50, and recently surged to a high of $88.15.
Next Target: Trading at $87.35, a short pullback toward $80-$82 is normal. Breaking resistance sends it above $90.00.
All-Time Target: If $90 breaks with high volume, HYPE could reach $100 - $120. Losing $78 support risks a drop to $70.
Where do you think HYPE goes next? Are you buying, holding, or selling? $ZEC Tonight's major non-farm payrolls report is the key for the entire market. Looking at the minor non-farm data, US employment is weakening, so I feel there's a high probability that tonight's major non-farm report will be positive.
Once the data is favorable, the whole market has a chance to take off.
Take ZEC for example, this coin is purely a sentiment-driven speculative token with a weak technical foundation, completely driven up by the ETF narrative and leveraged violent pumps.
If the non-farm data really turns out positive, it has a chance to surge to 1000-1200.
I no longer want to keep holding this coin; the mental toll of holding the position is too high, and the cost is too great. I plan that if it drops a bit more this afternoon, I will just take the loss and exit, then block it and never touch it again.
Coins that are pumped purely by a wave of sentiment rise crazily and fall fiercely; the stress of this game is unbearable, so I'm done playing with it.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.🤮#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ZEC XAU 15-minute gold trading opportunity yesterday morning √
Perfectly reached the target with the help of positive non-farm payroll data
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
$XAU $XAUT From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin BTC started to rise from August 17 to August 21, and three consecutive bullish daily candles broke through to a peak, then began to consolidate around these two days, followed by another bullish candle breaking through. This kind of secondary breakout, if not occurring in a true bull market, is very likely to break down into a downward trend.
I posted this morning that there might be a decline today, and indeed it has dropped quite a bit so far. The pullback trend is becoming increasingly obvious. Moreover, ETH, ZEC, SOL, and others are also following the trend, breaking down and pulling back accordingly.
However, although I think there is a high probability of a downward pullback, the current trendline has not been completely broken yet, so there is still a chance to move higher again. Therefore, without a clear breakdown and two or three consecutive bearish candles, it might be too early to say it will decline.
So, is the direction up or down? The probability of going down seems higher, right? #沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise interest rates in September
BTC is currently around 81300U, ETH 2490U.
In the early morning, Fed's Waller spoke very plainly: whether to raise rates in September depends decisively on the August inflation CPI.
‑ If August inflation remains stubborn and data is hot, he will support a rate hike;
‑ If inflation continues to fall, he tends to keep rates unchanged.
The market is now fully betting on this inflation report.
The recent rally is the market pricing in "cooling inflation, no rate hike in September" in advance.
But be clear: this is a news-driven expectation market.
If next week's inflation data exceeds expectations and rises, rate hike expectations will instantly return, the market will quickly reverse, and volatility spikes will be very intense. Don't get carried away by the short-term rise and enter with heavy positions. $BTC #Waller: August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
The big event is coming, tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real first test.
I interpret Waller's statement this time as one sentence: no one should rush to conclusions about whether there will be a rate hike in September. If August inflation continues to cool down, he tends to hold steady; if CPI and PPI strengthen again, a rate hike remains on the table. After his speech, the market's expectation for a September rate hike clearly cooled, returning close to a 50-50 split.
But what I personally pay more attention to is not whether tonight's non-farm payrolls are high or low, but whether employment and inflation can simultaneously provide direction. Currently, July's non-farm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were significantly revised down; August ADP only increased by 38,000, indicating employment is not as strong as imagined.
So my simple judgment is, if tonight's non-farm payrolls are below expectations and the unemployment rate continues to rise, the market will further bet on no rate hike, and $BTC, $ETH have a chance to continue pushing upward. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and wage growth is relatively strong, then the bears will regain the initiative.
In the short term, I am still bullish on BTC, focusing on whether it can hold around 80,000; only if it holds can it continue to challenge previous highs. If ETH climbs back above 2,500, the upside space will reopen.
But for the real big picture, I won't draw conclusions tonight. Non-farm payrolls are just the first hurdle; next week's CPI and PPI are the final exam that will decide the September FOMC.$ETH: Go long (buy on dips), short-term can short on rallies.
Core Strategy:
1. Entry Zone: Focus on observing the 2,465 - 2,475 (around MA20) support range. Aggressive traders can lightly buy near the current 2,500, while conservative traders are advised to wait for a pullback to around 2,470 to stabilize before buying. If volume increases and it holds above 2,510, follow the momentum to buy more.
2. Stop Loss: Set long position stop loss below 2,440; if shorting short-term, set stop loss above 2,535.
3. Take Profit: First target is 2,530 (24h high), if broken, look towards 2,580 - 2,600.
Core Basis:
1. Trend Structure: From the low of 2,378, there was a strong volume-driven surge reaching a high of 2,530. The current phase is a normal technical pullback after a strong rise, and the uptrend remains intact.
2. Strong Support: The 1-hour MA20 (2,469.80) maintains an upward trend, resonating with the previous consolidation zone to form a strong support area with robust defense.
3. Volume and Price Coordination: Previous surge showed volume increase; currently, during the consolidation pullback phase, volume has significantly shrunk, indicating limited selling pressure. This is likely a high-level shakeout by major players, and the pullback near the Bollinger Bands middle band/MA20 is likely to find support.
#比特币再破80000美元 9.4 BTC
After a round of rally, divergence emerges; focus closely on these two key zones
After a rapid surge, the market immediately faced pressure and pulled back, with a long upper shadow K-line already sending a clear signal.
Many rush to enter after seeing a big rise, ignoring the heavy selling pressure above, easily getting caught in back-and-forth oscillations and shakeouts.
Price has stabilized above the medium- to long-term moving averages; the large-scale bullish structure is not yet completely broken.
Currently in a pullback phase after a big rise, there is strong resistance above; the market will oscillate repeatedly, with possibilities of surges followed by pullbacks and spike shakeouts. It is necessary to wait for the key zones to choose a direction.
Key zones
Resistance: 81400‑81800
Support: 79600‑79200
Often, this is just a correction after a big rise, not a complete trend reversal. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC $ETH $BTC By late September at the latest, at some point in the 82000-82300 range, there will be a confirmation signal for a new round of upward movement. If it breaks through and holds steady, I will manually chase the position, and the position size will not be light.
This window period is not short, roughly 1-3 weeks, lasting at least until the end of the National Day holiday, all good entry opportunities.
After the layout is complete, it is expected to usher in about 1.5 months of oscillating upward movement. It won’t be a violent pump, more likely a rhythm of rising a little each day, more rises than falls, with mixed ups and downs.
I see this year’s highest point at 93000-93700; when it reaches this area, I will take profits in batches. Regardless of whether the process is a slow rise or a rapid surge, the target remains unchanged—this may be the most reliable trend for the rest of the year.
A reminder: for mid-term long positions, the liquidation price must be set below 70000. News events, black swans, white swans, the possibility of a spike down to 70000 still exists, so this year you must be well prepared for such extreme situations.
Note, I am talking about preventing spike liquidation, not telling you to bottom-fish at 70000. Don’t get it wrong.
The probability of falling below 70000 is very low, but it’s wise to guard against losses. $BTC $BTC is currently fluctuating repeatedly around 77000. I believe that going long at this level offers a better risk-reward ratio than chasing shorts.
The logic is simple: if we consider 75500-80000 as a wide oscillation range, the support at 75500 is about 1500 points below, while the space up to 80000 is nearly 3000 points, giving a potential risk-reward ratio close to 1:2. Chasing shorts after continuous declines is risky because if there is support near 75500, a rebound can easily wipe out short positions; buying low near support with controlled stop-loss offers a more favorable upside payoff.
Of course, a high risk-reward ratio does not guarantee a rise; the key is whether there is volume-supported stabilization at the support level.
The idea for $ETH is similar. It is difficult to break below 2000 directly from around 2350, so high selling and low buying within the 2300-2600 range fits the current rhythm better than one-sided trend chasing.
My strategy is clear: do not chase rallies, do not blindly chase shorts. Look for opportunities near support, take profits near resistance, and treat the range as oscillation until a clear breakout occurs. Don’t over-predict before the market direction is established.
This is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; please manage your risk. $BTC 9.4BTC
Yesterday's Summary
Judgment as of September 3: BTC is in an oversold rebound after a major drop, has not yet broken through the downtrend line, and is in the 77000‑77500 consolidation recovery range. Bearish momentum is weakening but the overall trend has not directly reversed, suitable for high sell and low buy within the range.
The market did not follow the original idea of oscillating downward but directly broke the rebound consolidation pattern. Bulls concentrated their entry and directly broke upward, resulting in a strong rally.
From the 77000‑77500 consolidation range, it surged to a high of 82282, forming a large-scale rebound that directly surpassed previous resistance levels.
The technical expectation of consolidation recovery was directly broken by news, and technical forecasts failed in the face of strong capital inflows, which is very common in the crypto market.
Oscillate and observe. If the price continues to fluctuate between 80000‑81700, it is recommended to reduce operations and wait for a directional choice. Opening orders back and forth in the consolidation range easily triggers consecutive stop losses. Approaching the non-farm payroll data, market volatility will increase, leverage must reduce positions, and strict stop losses are required.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Follow the market trend, take profits with light positions
9.3 $BTC Big Cake / $ETH Second Cake performance summary:
Day before yesterday profits taken: +27,729U
Yesterday profits taken: +8,057U
🦅 This wave of positive news really hit hard
Go long with the trend, capture the mid-stage market
Honestly, those who can eat from the fish head to the tail are very strong
I only take the part I understand myself
📈 The market is always changing,
but one thing remains eternal: surviving longer is the real skill
Trade the market you can control,
leave the rest to others
Kunren | Steady trading Don’t be greedy for the whole move, only take what’s certain
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 My personal judgment is that the Federal Reserve is very unlikely to raise interest rates in September 💡
Currently, several key Federal Reserve officials who have spoken out, including Waller and Walsh, tend to align their statements with a "precise performance" that supports the US financial layout—after all, their every word and action can influence global asset pricing, and policies will definitely prioritize serving US interests rather than recklessly ignoring the domestic economy.
If they really rashly raise rates, the first to be hurt would be the US itself. Not to mention that highly rate-sensitive assets like Sandisk and SPCX in the US stock market would directly plunge, the bigger risk actually lies in the US Treasury market. Continuous rate hikes will only increase the liquidity risk of US Treasuries, potentially even impacting the stability of the entire US financial system. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC
September isn't over yet, but the historical data is already there.
An average drop of 2.92%, not too deep, but not a good month either.
However, October that follows averages nearly a 20% rise, with ten out of the past thirteen years being positive.
So if September really drops, it might be making room for October.Don't rush to chant "sell the fact"; for Dogecoin, the last ten days are precisely the most anticipated and lucrative period.
DOGE-1 is the first-ever lunar orbit mission fully funded by Dogecoin—the community's long-awaited "To the Moon" has finally been written into the launch contract. From tipping culture to payment attempts, Dogecoin has always lacked a solid real-world success story. This CubeSat will orbit and transmit images back to Earth, effectively moving the narrative from live streams into space. There’s a countdown before launch, orbit insertion after launch, and data transmission afterward. The topic cycle is much longer than a single-day positive event, so Dogecoin’s exposure will come wave after wave.
Historical patterns also favor the bulls: in event-driven markets, the price increase during the anticipation phase often far exceeds the pullback after the event. The countdown window is the main stage for capital inflow and rising enthusiasm. Looking back at $DOGE’s major events, from Elon Musk’s appearance on "Saturday Night Live" to payment rumors, the main waves almost always occurred before the event was realized.
So the strategy is clear: the last ten days are the sprint window. Hold with the trend, let the "to the moon" sentiment carry you, and save the worries about "selling the fact" for after September 14. The fireworks haven’t started yet; it’s too early to talk about the end of the show.#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 They are going all out on computing power before going public, locking $80 billion worth of computing power in one week, maxing out IPO costs.
On September 1st, they just signed a $35 billion cloud service agreement with Lambda, and previously signed a $45 billion six-year computing power contract with Nscale, totaling $80 billion in one week. The Lambda project will have the data center built by former Bitcoin mining company Hut 8, with Nvidia supporting behind the scenes.
My view: This is an AI computing power arms race, locking computing power first before telling growth stories. But the $80 billion contract is a double-edged sword; whether a valuation of 1.5-2 trillion can hold depends on profitability.
Analysts directly pointed out: Anthropic has committed $35 billion in computing power spending, but the money hasn't been raised yet; they locked the computing power first and are waiting for the IPO to raise the funds.
Today there is news that Anthropic is about to expand its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, led by Morgan Stanley. The prospectus is expected to be public after Labor Day on September 7th, with the earliest listing at the end of September or early October, targeting a valuation of 1.5-2 trillion, aiming for the largest IPO in history.
Annualized revenue is 65 billion, with Q2 surging 14 times, growth is really strong. But my judgment: AI demand is real, whether it can convert into profit is another matter. The $80 billion contract is weighing heavily, and a large part of the IPO financing will be used to cover long-term computing power commitments. Whether the high valuation can be maintained after listing depends on whether income can be turned into profit in the next two years. $BTC Is the trading volume back?
1 billion dollars
GMGN alone did almost half
480 million
But this data is interesting
91% all on Robinhood Chain
Just a month ago this chain was only 18 million
Increased 26 times
Who would believe it
Solana on the other hand is stagnant
9.5 million
Exactly the same as 30 days ago
Retail investors' money
Is being drawn away by new narratives
I'm watching this migration
To see if it can hold through this week
Can hype be eaten as food?$SOL $ZEC
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Tonight's market had a strange quiet, like all the little birds folding their wings before a storm. Have you noticed that every time the night before the nonfarm payrolls, the market puts on a "pretend nothing happened" act? I stared at ETH's candlestick for a long time; intraday volatility was suppressed, trading volume was shrinking, both bulls and bears were actively reducing leverage, and no one wanted to bet on direction before the data was released. This feeling was very subtle, like everyone agreed to put the bullets in first and wait until the 20:30 gunshot to fire. Let me first share some signals I saw. - Last night's small nonfarm payroll ADP was weaker than expected, employment cooled, and the market had already secretly raised the probability of a "September rate cut." But the daytime price did not rally unilaterally, showing a typical "expectation first, but afraid to chase highs" pattern—buying is present but not aggressive. - CME's interest rate watch tool shows that the real variable tonight is not new jobs, but wage data. If wages keep rising, inflation stickiness persists, and rate cut expectations will be shaken, which is an invisible cold arrow for risk assets. - The strength of BTC and ETH on the market is obvious: ETH is more elastic than BTC, fiercer when rising, and more painful when falling. This is no secret, but many people underestimate the amplifying effect of this volatility difference in the data market. Why are these details important? Because the market has never been trading "facts," but trading "expectations gap." If the nonfarm payroll data is weaker than expected, combined with weak ADP, rate cut expectations will further heat up, weakening the dollar, and ETH is likely to move quickly in the short termThe market surged from evening to midnight.
Master Fo's strategy remains consistent, providing low-level assessments that align with the market rhythm, allowing mainstream assets to open up upward momentum.
Understanding the direction is not difficult; the challenge lies in the market starting up and maintaining a steady mindset to hold onto your own opportunities. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ZEC is extremely strong; if you're not careful, your position can disappear, and it can even liquidate. I've been bearish on it, but it keeps breaking new highs. Will it break 1000? If ZEC can volume-break and hold 1000, then the market might evolve from a "high-level rebound" into a "new major uptrend." Conversely, if after hitting 980–1000 there is a clear volume spike with a long upper shadow and a quick drop back to 950 or even below 920, then short-term profit-taking is very likely. It has risen about 16% in the past 7 days, and the increase over the past month is even more dramatic; currently, volume has surged significantly compared to the previous day. If you already hold it, I would consider letting profits run while setting a trailing stop; if you are completely out now, it's best to wait for a pullback rather than chasing heavily after a 15% rise. Breaking 1000 signals further bullishness, breaking below 900 calls for caution, and breaking below 800 indicates a clear weakening trend. $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 🕵️ I’m the Mid-Term Intel Guy. Friday’s NFP Is Coming at 8:30 PM — This Is the Fed’s Final Major Card Before FOMC. Everyone is waiting for one thing tonight: Why am I watching this level so closely? Because $BTC has spent the past couple of days grinding around $78K–$79K, and $79K is more than just another number. It’s the short-term battleground. If Bitcoin can establish itself above $79K on the hourly timeframe, the mid-term structure remains relatively healthy. But if $79K keeps rejecting anLast night my buddy suddenly messaged me on WeChat asking if it's still possible to invest in crypto now.
I stared at the screen for a while and replied: You can't even tell your wallet from the exchange, why bother investing.
Honestly, this circle is like a vegetable market now, even elderly folks dare to talk about K-lines.
But among those who really get in, eight out of ten are blindly feeling their way forward.
The most ridiculous thing I've seen is someone who exchanged their mortgage down payment for some animal coin, then woke up every midnight to check the market.
What happened? Half a month later, that coin dropped so much it couldn't even cover the miner fees.
You ask me what I'm playing now? I only keep one $BTC on my phone, using it as a piggy bank.
And a bit of $ETH, purely to occasionally swap for stablecoins to buy coffee.
As for the flashy others, I don't even bother reading their whitepapers.
It's not that I don't believe in the tech, but no matter how strong the tech is, it can't withstand a single tweet from Musk.
A few days ago, there was a project hyped up like the savior of humanity, but its codebase was found to be copy-pasted.
The community was still shouting "faith," I almost laughed out loud.
If you really want to play, treat spare money like throwing it into the water, don't count gains or losses, don't set alarms.
My current strategy is super simple: dollar-cost average, then delete the app, check back in half a year.
If you make money, consider it a bonus; if you lose, just smoke a few less cigarettes.
This stuff is more thrilling than a casino; at least casinos show their cards, here it's all blind boxes.
Finally, a word of advice: don't borrow money, don't use leverage, don't trust the "teachers" shouting calls in groups.
If they could really predict, they'd be quietly getting rich themselves, why bother leading you?
Remember, while you're watching the market, the house might be watching your positions.
Stop it, go to sleep if it's time, go work if you have to.
Even if $BTC shoots to the moon,
it won't let you skip your morning punch-in tomorrow.
Alright, I'm done, my instant noodles are getting cold. When I was trading contracts, the first thing I did every morning was check the liquidation list, even more eagerly than watching the morning news.
Later I realized those precise spikes are designed to punish all kinds of stubbornness, especially people like me who think they’re skilled traders.
Holding spot positions is because you’re stuck, holding contracts is because of greed—this saying is absolutely true.
I bought $SOL from 40 to 200, didn’t sell, then it dropped back to 80, and finally I cut at 90, perfectly missing the subsequent new highs.
News is the most harmful—things like “a certain whale building a position” or “a country passing a bill”—by the time you see it, they’ve already sold out.
Now I only watch two things: the balance in my own wallet and the credit card bill due tomorrow.
I once blindly followed gurus’ trades, but after paying my tuition, I realized that those who can consistently make money don’t have time to care about small retail traders like me.
The funniest thing is, after a week of researching fundamentals, it’s less effective than Elon Musk posting an emoji.
Now my positions only hold $BNB and some stablecoins; everything else is cleared out, because sleeping well is more important than anything.
Whenever I get itchy to jump into a new project, I look back at my records of chasing highs three years ago and instantly calm down.
What this market taught me isn’t how to get rich quick, but how to admit I’m just an ordinary person.
When I make money, I withdraw some and convert it into tangible things, like buying a phone or treating friends to a meal, so when I lose, at least I have something to hold onto.
Don’t fight the market; when it goes crazy, it even hits itself, let alone the small chips you and I have.
The last bit of $ADA I have, I don’t watch anymore—I just treat it like a lottery ticket for my future self; if it hits, it’s luck, if it goes to zero, that’s normal. #比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 PANews September 4 report: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, as PONS market cap surpasses $700 million, the two largest holders tied for first place have both realized profits exceeding 100 times.
@cryptogle bought 10.6 million PONS with 5,000 USDC when PONS market cap was $470,000, currently holding 10.96 million PONS ($7.6 million), with unrealized gains of $7.59 million (1500x).
@theunipcs bought 10.96 million PONS with 67,000 USDC when PONS market cap was $6.16 million ($7.6 million), with unrealized gains of $7.53 million (112x) $BTC According to Wintermute's market update, the performance of BTC is encouraging, having broken out of the trading range of the past six weeks, accompanied by nearly $2.7 billion in short positions being liquidated, indicating strong market momentum. At the same time, BTC and ETH have net inflows of approximately $1.92 billion and $693 million respectively, suggesting institutional investors' optimistic expectations for the market. Market enthusiasm always carries risks; if ETF funds withdraw and BTC prices fall back below the $67,000 range, the market may become cautious again.
Additionally, the report shows that the current BTC market is experiencing a short-term rebound driven by short covering, with analysts warning that such rebounds are often fragile. Without sufficient spot demand support, the market may see sharp corrections when at high levels.
From a technical indicator perspective, $80,000 is a key resistance level for BTC. If it successfully holds this position, the market may further challenge targets of $85,000 or even $90,000. However, if the rebound loses momentum, a pullback to the support range of $72,000 to $69,000 cannot be ruled out.
In summary, the current short-term market optimism should be approached with caution. Although most data indicate that we are indeed entering a new wave of upward momentum, potential risks must also be heeded. Therefore, investors are advised to pay attention to market capital flows and macroeconomic changes, maintaining a flexible and adaptive strategy.
#比特币 #BTC DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY.
$BTC is at $80,975, after touching $82,285. The bigger signal isn’t just price: U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded +$301.66M in daily net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching $55.01B.
$ETH trades around $2,506.79, while Spot $ETH ETFs show +$68.02M daily net inflows and $13.09B cumulative.
Prices may shake, but capital hasn’t left. Don’t stare at one red candle. Watch where the money is flowing.
$BTC
$ETH
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#DailyOrbit On September 1, ARB tokens surged nearly 30% in a single day, reaching a recent high, with open interest growing by more than 10%. The fundamental driving force behind this rally comes from the explosive growth in on-chain revenue from its ecosystem application Robinhood Chain (a dedicated chain based on the Arbitrum Dedicated Chain architecture). • Soaring data: Robinhood Chain's daily trading revenue jumped from about $54,000 on August 22 to $1.088 million on August 30, a nearly 20-fold increase in eight days; By September 1, its daily revenue had surpassed $2 million. Meanwhile, the chain's DEX daily trading volume reached $989 million, with TVL surpassing $700 million. • Asset value capture allocation: • ARB (Platform Tax): Since Robinhood Chain uses the Arbitrum technology stack, about 10% of protocol net revenue must be handed over to the Arbitrum DAO, providing ARB with clear and structured protocol cash flow. Based on an annualized daily revenue of $2 million, Arbitrum can earn about $73 million in annualized income. • UNI (Transaction Tax): Uniswap controls about 99% of tokenized stock liquidity on the chain, with 0.25% of transaction fees paid through buybacks and burnsSeptember 4th BTC Morning Public Strategy
BTC current price is 80811, showing a strong rally on the 15-minute chart, reaching a high of 82282 before facing resistance and pulling back. Currently, it is in a correction and consolidation phase after the rally, with short-term bullish momentum weakening and intensified high-level bull-bear competition.
Resistance levels: 81500‑82282
Short-term upper resistance range, 82282 is the intraday high of this round, with heavy selling pressure upon rebound to this range; strong resistance at 82282.
Support levels: 79800‑80000
Key short-term support zone for this rally, serving as the bulls' defense position; if this range is effectively broken, the short-term upward structure will weaken.
Trading idea: On a pullback to 80200-79600 with stabilization and a bullish close, consider trading short-term rebound long positions, targeting 81500-82200
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
$BTC
$ETH