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Some margin has already been added, and at this stage, the only hope is to steadily weather this round of overnight market fluctuations.
Many people are curious about the driving logic behind the market being filled with various bearish signals, yet the market is showing an upward rally. After reviewing various recent macro data, I found that not all the original negative factors have disappeared, but rather that the trading focus of market funds has shifted, and expectations for rate hikes have cooled.
US July ADP employment increased by 44,000, below market expectations, with a gap of about 25,000. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield also retreated, and the market's probability of betting on a rate hike in September fell from 68% on Monday to 55%.
The familiar market scenario plays out again: when employment data weakens, market expectations for liquidity easing actually rise, driving a rebound in risk assets. Additionally, signs of easing geopolitical conflicts have emerged, with international crude oil prices falling and the market's concerns about energy inflation pressures temporarily eased.
Therefore, despite the recent flood of negative news, the two core variables truly suppressing risk asset prices—interest rate expectations and crude oil prices—have simultaneously shown marginal loosening, fueling this round of recovery.
Looking at the market strength comparison, in this round of rebound, one mainstream stock showed significantly higher market elasticity than another large-cap benchmark. The price rose from around 1820, reaching as high as 1927, with hourly candlesticks regaining multiple moving averages. The 1900 level has become a watershed in the short-term bullish and bearish battles.
If this support can hold, the market may continue to test the 1928-1936 range; Once it holds above 1936, it will further test resistance near 1950.
From a bearish perspective, the current rebound is rather unfavorable. But objectively, this round of rally is more of an expected recovery and cannot be directly concluded for now that the major trend has reversed.
Referring to capital flow data, corresponding spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $53.1 million on August 4, and continued to flow in $5.6 million on August 5. The scale of inflows may not be explosive, but at least it shows that institutional funds did not flee collectively following the market's negative signals.
At this stage, I am focusing on two key observation points:
The market pulled back and fell below 1890, indicating a clear weakening of this round of rebound;
If the price breaks above 1936 and continues to hold, near 1976 it will reach a critical risk level. At this point, the original approach cannot be maintained and timely adjustment is needed.
In contrast, the benchmark stocks in the market still face short-term pressure at the 65,000 level, but each pullback brings in inflows of funds. The support behind this comes from continuous ETF inflows: net inflows of $170 million on August 3, $211.5 million on August 4, and another $47.6 million on August 5. With three consecutive days of net capital inflows, bears find it difficult to directly break through the market.
If the market benchmark can effectively break through 65,000, it will drive stocks in the same sector to rise further; conversely, if prices fall below 63,800, this rebound will reach a turning point.
Looking back at hardware companies' financial reports, the fundamental data is impressive: single-quarter revenue was $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter; Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25, with full-year revenue up 175% year-on-year, plus $14 billion in new stock buyback quotas.
The fundamentals are not weak, but after the financial report was released, the stock price continued to decline. The root cause lies in the market having already fully priced in the optimistic story of AI storage price increases and the explosion of computing power center businesses, pushing market expectations very high. The company's revenue guidance for next quarter is set at $10.3-10.8 billion, with earnings per share guidance of $44-46. The data itself remains excellent but is no longer enough to further raise market expectations, staging a typical performance of positive earnings reports realizing positive results.
In the long run, the logic of AI computing power demand and storage chip price increases has not completely ended. However, short-term valuation levels are relatively high, and after the earnings report is released, the market has already digested optimistic expectations, so a pullback is a reasonable phenomenon.
To summarize this round of rebound: it was not a major positive catalyst, but rather a recovery driven by weaker employment data cooling rate hike expectations, continued ETF inflows, and overlapping short position covering.
The real driving force behind the market trend will be the August 7 nonfarm payroll report.
If nonfarm payroll data is weak, the market will continue to trade liquidity easing expectations;
If employment data strengthens again beyond expectations, concerns about rate hikes will re-enter the market.
From a holding perspective, the most challenging issue right now is not the slow oscillation and upward movement, but the sudden rapid surge to break through key resistance levels. At this stage, the priority is to steadily get through the non-farm payroll data window, wait for the key data to be released, and then reassess the market.Next $BTC pivot to watch is sitting at 61.5K
We kinda formed local downtrend here, retesting 62,5K zone and creating another lower high right now
Main liquidity still sits below so 61,5K lefts to be main target
Everything hinges on reaction there, if we break it, that's the direct way to ~55K and bottomAnd a geography news story magnified by clickbait headlines. Iran wants to sign an agreement with Oman and gain control over the Strait of Hormuz—sounds scary, but Reuters says this is stuck in two walls: U.S. sanctions and Lloyd's' newly issued insurance clause—whoever pays the toll is entitled to war risk. In other words, the "blockade" is more of a rhetoric and a bunch of compliance deadlocks when actually implemented. This is also why oil prices did not soar with the geopolitical trend but were instead cut by Fitch's expectations. Don't impulsively change your position just because you see Middle Eastern headlines; first see if it actually materializes. Protect your bullets and walk and see.The much-discussed SpaceX $SPCX re-release has arrived on August 6.
911.5 million insider shares are now available for sale, 40% more than the ones circulating outside at the time of the IPO, doubling the tradable market in one go. And this batch only accounts for one-fifth of all insiders locked up, with even bigger releases coming up by year-end. Musk and the core team locked up even longer, but this time they can't get out.
The stock price had already fallen earlier, falling below the June issue price of $135.
But after flipping through the financial report, I actually felt the lifting of the ban wasn't that scary. The real highlight was its massive spending. Let me be clear. The first report card after listing wasn't bad: Q2 revenue was 7.8 billion, up 92% year-on-year, nearly 1 billion over expectations, and losses narrowed to 540 million. Users selling Starlink broadband doubled in a year, reaching 12 million. In the first earnings report after listing new stocks, this table isn't bad.
The problem lies in the money expenditure. Capital expenditure in a quarter was $18.4 billion, double the revenue. The key question is where the money went. Nearly $15.8 billion was all fed into xAI, used to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google for AI computing power. People originally bought $SPCX, which was the cash machine Starlink. When they opened the ledger, they realized they were also paying for a cash-burning AI arms race.
But interestingly, I originally thought it was just burning money. Looking at the numbers, I found its AI revenue rose 247% this quarter, reaching 2.56 billion. So the real question is whether this new machine will become a second Starlink, or will it be a hole that can't be filled?
Wall Street was in an uproar. At the same company, Morningstar's Nicholas Owens directly offered to sell, with a target price of $62. Morgan Stanley saw 300, corresponding to a market value close to 4 trillion. The difference in betweens was nearly five times. Most people actually still sided with the bullish side, with an average target price of 231, and Owens was the coldest among them.
So in the short term, don't just focus on daily price movements; just two sheets are enough:
How quickly will the unlocked shares be taken by the market? Can xAI's high growth rate continue?
But honestly, I'm not that panicked myself. What loosened was the chips; the business itself didn't collapse. The unlock-up drop was a one-time sell-off, which is a different matter from whether Starlink makes money. Starlink keeps spinning, and xAI is a rare second engine in the market that can more than double in a year.
Once these floating funds are gradually digested, as long as these two machines remain, now that the price has fallen below the issue price, in my view, it looks more like an opportunity than an alarm.点评一条容易被忽略的 AI 快讯。Stripe 正独家谈判收购 OpenRouter，估值约 100 亿美元——一个做支付的巨头，砸重金买「大模型的聚合分发入口」。这信号懂的都懂：AI 的价值正在从「谁的模型强」往「谁掌握调用入口和结算」迁移，就像当年互联网从做网站变成做流量分发。对加密的启发也在这：真正长久的不是最会喊的叙事，是卡在钱流和入口上的基础设施。别只盯着涨得最凶的，盯谁在悄悄收网。走着看。Pretty interesting to see $BTC spot CVD now outpacing perp CVD.
Spot has pushed beyond its previous high while perpetuals are still trading below theirs. This helps explain why we haven’t seen the same continued cascade of liquidation flushes that followed previous range breakdowns.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the lows are fully protected. If spot demand begins fading, price can still move lower.
But as long as spot buying continues to strengthen, corrections towards the range lows should be absorbed much better than they were during previous breakdowns.
Less leverage driving the move means less leverage available to unwind.Sure enough, the 65K did not directly turn into support: $BTC briefly surged to 65.1K, then pulled back to 64.6K, winning the previous resistance zone for a round.
After shorting to break even, WWG clearly stated it would wait for a rebound above 65.1K before shorting; formnoshape, however, did not conclude this pullback trend, insisting it must break through 65.6K and form higher lows before recognizing a reversal. One chart trader was bullish, citing the possibility that gold's pullback might trigger risk appetite, but only treated it as a path to be verified.
Public market data shows it is still below 65K. Overall judgment: This is resistance rejection, not a downward trend break; If it stabilizes again at 65.6K, bearish logic fails; if resistance continues, range consolidation will take priority. Will you wait for a breakout confirmation, or continue selling high in the resistance zone?
CryptoGodJohn focuses on the prediction market and mentions MANIFEST, while Unity Academy offers $BSV high-risk long-term orders; Both lack verifiable official catalysts and do not list opportunities in this round.
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceCommenting on an AI news flash that's often overlooked. Stripe is exclusively negotiating to acquire OpenRouter, valued at about $10 billion—a payment giant investing heavily to acquire a "large model aggregation distribution gateway." Anyone who understands this signal understands: AI's value is shifting from "whose model is stronger" to "who controls the call entry point and settlement," just like when the internet shifted from building websites to focusing on traffic distribution. The inspiration for crypto is also here: what truly lasts is not the loudest narrative, but the infrastructure stuck in the flow and entry points of money. Don't just focus on the fastest gains—focus on who is quietly closing the net. Let's walk and see.$SPCX Unlocking without a sharp drop is a common misconception many people fall into
Many people saw that large shares of $SPCX had been unlocked, and the price did not crash as expected, directly concluding that the negative news from the lock-up unlocking has expired, and everyone is bullish for the long term.
Here is a very fatal cognitive flaw:
On the day ≠ the lock-up is lifted, you must sell all your shares.
Original holders can sell in batches or postpone, not necessarily concentrated on the day the lock-up is lifted.
Strong support on the day only means that buying has absorbed the selling pressure that day, but does not mean there was no selling pressure later.
If you conclude that "in the future, you can ignore negative news," it's easy to suffer a huge loss.
Historically, many stocks were calm on the first day of the lock-up, but after 1-2 weeks, selling pressure gradually eased and a decline began.
The price on the day is only the first reference; continuous monitoring of capital outflow signals afterward is key.
I previously gave key support near 115, but the market barely touched it and hasn't fully reached it. This level remains an important observation threshold. 我的结论先说：ALLO这轮不能简单写成“利好一出就反转”。四个15分钟实现波动率预测主题确实已上主网，严格12小时价格反弹6.31%，但成交只温和增加，永续持仓还略降。产品在推进，新增资金确认却不够，这个错位比榜单颜色更值得看。 先拆时间。北京时间8月6日21:27:58，Allora官方宣布，Forge新增四个主网主题，预测的是15分钟“实现波动率”——也就是短期波动有多大，而不是价格一定往哪边走。其开发文档显示，Forge不是一次性竞猜：模型工作者要持续提交预测，成绩按真实结果在链上评分，表现较好的参与者获得ALLO奖励。换句话说，这次不是单纯换一张宣传图，而是给模型竞争增加了可运行的新任务；但“主题上线”也不等于马上产生持续代币需求。 再看价格。以本轮13:00:08至次日01:00:08为严格窗口，OKX现货由0.25708美元升至0.27330美元，涨6.31%，成交额约155.74万美元，只是前一等长窗口的1.18倍；Binance同窗由约0.2572升至0.2733美元，涨6.26%，成交放大约1.78倍。两处方向一致，说明修复不是单一盘口插针。不过ALLO在00:05触Let's talk about something tough—those who know, know. NVIDIA reportedly considering cutting HBM memory for the Rubin Ultra—not because of technological regression, but because high-end memory is really hard to get. This news is more valuable than any storage price hike: even the king of computing power queues for memory, which shows that the real bottleneck in AI hardware has quietly shifted from GPUs to storage chips. Narrative is all about whoever chokes the cake, but now the one holding the neck has changed. The storage story is far from over; on-chain, level-2, and tier-one money will eventually recognize this line. Protect your bullets and don't get washed out during pullbacks. Let's see $MUThe Weekly $BTC Cryptic Market Score Index is what helped me identify the bottom in late June and scale out of 50% of my hedges at $58.5K, as shared with subscribers.
The signal has appeared just 3 TIMES before:
• August 2024
• April 2025
• November 2025
2 out of 3 aligned with macro bottoms and 1 with a multi-monthly bottom.
Because of this, I believe there's a HIGH PROBABILITY that Bitcoin has already bottomed on the high timeframes, with the most likely outcome now being a DURABLE REVERSAL TO THE UPSIDE over the coming weeks and months.🔥 $SNDK 再次成为我的 ATM。
我公开分享这轮回调背后的逻辑、空单的交易思路，以及为什么我正在等待 1088 一带布局多单。
我是刺哥。
此前公开分享的 1337.26 空单，目前价格已回落至 1212 附近，浮盈超过 120 点。市场走势基本验证了当初的判断。
为什么 $SNDK 从 1480 跌到 1212？
8 月 5 日盘后，闪迪公布 2026 财年 Q4 财报：
✅ 营收 89.7 亿美元，同比增长 372%，高于市场预期。
✅ 调整后 EPS 39.25 美元，同比增长超过 135 倍。
✅ 毛利率 84.6%，创历史新高。
✅ 数据中心业务全年收入增长 437%。
✅ 董事会新增 140 亿美元 股票回购授权，总回购规模达到 155 亿美元。
表面来看，这是一份几乎无可挑剔的财报。
但真正压制股价的，并不是过去，而是未来。
市场更关注的是 2027 财年 Q1 指引：
📉 营收指引 103–108 亿美元，中值低于市场预期。
📉 EPS 指引基本符合预期，没有超预期惊喜。
📉 毛利率预计环比持平，意味着利润率或已接近阶段性高点。
随后，花旗下调目标价，存储板块整体遭遇抛售，西部数据、SK 海力士同步走弱，市场开始重新定价 AI 存储板块的增长预期。
亮眼的历史业绩，终究没能抵消低于预期的未来指引。
1337.26 空单如何管理？
目前趋势依然偏空，但短线已经累计较大跌幅，交易重点应从“继续看空”转向“保护利润”。
✅ 移动止损
将止损下移至 1300。
1300 已成为新的关键压力位，即使出现反弹，也能锁定大部分利润。
✅ 分批止盈
🎯 1150–1180：止盈 30%
🎯 1080–1100：再止盈 30%
🎯 1000–1020：剩余仓位全部离场
✅ 加仓条件
如果反弹至 1250–1270 区域，同时成交量萎缩、反弹无力，可考虑继续布局空单，整体止损维持 1300。
若直接放量跌破 1150，说明空头趋势进一步确认，可顺势加仓，目标继续看向 1080 一线。
❌ 失效条件
若放量重新站稳 1300，说明财报利空已基本被市场消化，空头逻辑失效，应果断全部离场。
为什么关注 1088 一带做多？
📊 技术面
1080–1100 区域是多个关键支撑重叠的位置。
接近长期趋势支撑。
属于重要筹码密集区。
接近前期强支撑区域。
短周期已有超跌修复需求。
成交量放大，说明低位开始出现承接资金。
这里更像是一次 超跌反弹博弈区，而不是趋势反转确认区。
📈 基本面
AI 存储的长期逻辑并没有改变。
虽然短期业绩指引低于市场预期，但：
✅ AI 数据中心需求依旧旺盛。
✅ 2026 年产能基本售罄。
✅ 2027 年订单表现依然强劲。
✅ 多家机构仍维持长期看多评级。
因此，长期基本面仍然值得关注。
1088 多单策略
📍 建仓区间：1080–1100
建议分批布局，总仓位控制在 10%–15%，杠杆不超过 3 倍。
止损
跌破 950 止损。
分批止盈
🎯 1240–1260：止盈 30%
🎯 1350–1380：再止盈 30%
🎯 1450–1480：剩余仓位全部止盈
移动止损
每上涨约 100 点，止损同步上移 50 点，不断锁定利润，避免利润回吐。
我的观点
1337 空单已经兑现了第一阶段逻辑，现在更重要的是保护利润，而不是盲目恋战。
如果未来跌至 1080–1100 一带，我会重点关注是否出现超跌反弹机会。
空头负责赚钱，多头负责下一阶段布局。真正优秀的交易，不是永远看多或看空，而是在正确的时间站在正确的一边。
⚠️ 以上仅代表个人观点，不构成任何投资建议，请务必做好风险管理，DYOR。
#SNDK #BTC #ETH #AI #Trading #MarketAnalysis #DailyOrbit High volume and stagnant inflation—is it gathering momentum or funds quietly fleeing?
It must be said, the trend after $NVDA this round of financial reports is quite intriguing.
The performance data itself exceeded expectations, and all indicators met institutional optimistic expectations, which should be a solid positive development.
However, after the price surge, it continued to fluctuate at high levels, repeatedly showing upper shadows, but with increased volume, it couldn't rise further.
Many interpreted it as a shakeout, washing out unstable retail investors, and then aiming for new highs.
But there is another objective logic:
When all the public positive news is fully realized, the good news seen by everyone in the market is often the window for institutions to take profits in batches.
Increased trading volume doesn't necessarily mean it's all buying in; it can also be large funds selling to retail investors chasing highs.
Don't think singularly: good news = a big rally.
There have been many historical cases where financial reports far exceeded expectations, but the result is that "good news fulfilled is always negative."
The fact that it hasn't fallen directly doesn't mean the risk has been eliminated.
Key observation: Whether it can hold above this new high, if volume shrinks and it breaks below key support, be alert to the start of a phased correction.#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold has won big again, but BTC has been unusually quiet.
The July ADP employment data added only 44,000 new jobs, far below market expectations. As soon as the data was released, the market immediately began trading on expectations of rate cuts. The US dollar weakened, US Treasury yields fell, and gold and silver rallied, with spot gold once surging to $4,300.
According to previous statements, BTC, as "digital gold," should have some reaction to this market trend.
But the reality is that BTC is still trading sideways around $64,000, with gains less than a fraction of gold.
This also shows that BTC's pricing logic is becoming increasingly different from gold.
Gold is more influenced by interest rates and risk aversion, while BTC focuses more on liquidity, regulatory policies, ETF funding, and the crypto market's own cycle. The two occasionally rise and fall together, but that doesn't mean they will remain consistent in the long run.
So, don't wait for BTC to follow the rise just because gold prices rise.
This round of market activity has already given the answer: gold is following safe-haven paths, while BTC is following its own rhythm.
#ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified 🔥 Wash's sudden hawkish stance—daring to even talk about a rate hike in September? The crypto world really needs to be careful this time
When I first saw this news from Jin Shi, to be honest, I felt a chill down my spine.
Who is Walsh? The current Fed chair has just taken office, but has always been tough. This time it's even more decisive—he bluntly declared that if inflation data in the coming weeks isn't good, he'll raise interest rates in September. Not cutting rates, but raising rates. And he's still figuring out how to shrink the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.
Many people may not realize what this means. Let me translate for you.
Market expectations are completely chaotic. What was the mainstream narrative before? The Fed is cutting rates this year, liquidity is loose, BTC can rise. Now, with one sentence from Walsh, the table has been flipped. Not only will it not decrease, it might even increase. What's even worse is balance sheet shrinking—with a $6.7 trillion balance sheet, if it really starts shrinking, it would be like draining the market directly.
Washi himself knows his previous statements were unclear. He admitted that he made mistakes in the first ten weeks of his term, failing to clearly convey the "price stability" signal, leaving the market confused. But did you notice? He admitted his mistakes aside, but his policy direction was not soft at all. This shows that the Fed's core task now is to curb inflation; everything else can be pushed back.
The crypto world is too tightly tied to US stocks. Currently, BTC and Nasdaq have a correlation of over 0.8, basically rising and falling together. What is US stocks most afraid of? Liquidity tightening. Raising interest rates + shrinking balance sheets in one hand is a double blow to risk assets. Gold previously hit 4200 thanks to safe-haven + rate cut expectations; now that rate cut expectations are gone, whether gold can hold out is questionable, let alone BTC, a "high-risk tech stock."
So how do you watch the rest?
Personally, I think the crypto world will probably have a tough time from August to September. Washey has already made his statement clear: if CPI or PPI slightly exceeds expectations in the coming weeks, the market will frantically price in rate hike predictions. Whether BTC can hold around 64,000 support is hard to say.
My advice is very simple.
Don't heavily invest at this level to bet on a rebound. The uncertainty on the news side is too high, and left-side trading is easy to get stuck.
Keep your cash ready. If you really create a gold pit because of rate hike fears, that's the real time to pick up a bargain.
Watch next week's inflation data. That will be the key to determining the direction of the September meeting.
To be honest, many in the crypto world are still using last year's logic to speculate on this year's market. But the Fed's policy direction has shifted, shifting from "whether to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates." This shift itself is the biggest risk.
Do you really think there will be a rate hike in September? Or is Walsh just trying to scare the market? Let's talk in the comments.🐋 WHALE WATCH : Smart money is quietly taking control again.
While paper hands were panicking institutional ETF buyers stepped back in with back to back massive inflow days:
=> Day 1: +$152M
=> Day 2: +$264M
$BTC and $ETH are reacting exactly how youd expect pushing higher as Wall Street builds up positions. The quiet accumulation phase is ending. Are you positioned or are you going to chase the breakout higher ?聊条硬货，懂的都懂。英伟达被曝在给 Rubin Ultra 考虑削减 HBM 显存——不是技术退步，是高端内存真的抢不到货。这条比任何存储涨价新闻都值钱：当算力之王都要为内存排队，说明这轮 AI 硬件的真瓶颈，已经悄悄从 GPU 挪到了存储颗粒。叙事这东西讲究谁卡脖子谁分蛋糕，现在卡脖子的换人了。存储的故事远没到讲完的时候，链上、二级、一级的钱早晚会认这条线。保护好子弹，别在回调里被洗下车。走着看。$MU🚀 SOL/USDT (4H) – Support Level Defense
📊 Trade Setup Details
* Pair / Timeframe: SOL / USDT (4-Hour)
* Bias: 🟢 LONG
* Entry Zone: 72.70 – 73.45
* Stop Loss (SL): 71.40
🎯 Take Profit Targets
* TP1: 76.10
* TP2: 79.40
* TP3: 83.10
💡 Why This Setup:
Retesting local base at $73.35 (-0.95%) on $29.96M volume. Buyer defense above $73.00 maintains structural support for a rebound.
⚠️ Disclaimer: NFA – Educational purposes only.
#Crypto #SOL #Solana #Trading #OKX 扑克桌上最贵的一课，是学会在牌面变了以后放弃自己起手的判断。你翻前重注 AK，翻牌来三张同花你没花色，这时候还嘴硬全下，不是勇敢是上头。交易一模一样——你可以带着一个方向进场，但当验证你论点的条件一条条消失，继续持仓就不是信念，是不肯认错。我这两天刚把一个看了很久的方向反手，别人觉得是打脸，我觉得是省钱。会砍旧观点的人，才拿得住下一个真机会。手里的仓位，服务的是当下的牌面，不是你的面子。Why would a company that makes money in dollars build its own chain?
If this question were applied to Circle, it would actually be more worth watching than the financial reports.
On August 5, Circle released its financial report, showing profitability in the second quarter, with net profit of $48 million. USDC circulating supply grew 19% year-on-year to $73.3 billion, with on-chain trading volume surging year-on-year. On the surface, this is a report card proving that demand for stablecoins is growing.
But what the market really focuses on is not how much USDC has increased.
The question is whether Circle's next bet on Arc can transform it from a "stablecoin issuer" into a true financial infrastructure.
Because there is a very interesting contradiction here.
Circle's biggest business model in the past was actually very simple:
Issued USDC.
Use reserve funds to earn profits.
As USDC's scale expands, revenue increases.
But this model has an inherent limitation.
It is highly dependent on interest rates.
With the Fed cutting interest rates and declining reserve yields, even if USDC's scale continues to grow, profit margins may be affected.
So Circle must look for the next growth curve.
Arc is the answer.
What Circle wants to do is not just make USDC exist on various public chains, but to build a chain dedicated to serving capital markets, payments, and foreign exchange settlement, making USDC the native currency within it.
This idea is actually quite bold.
Because if successful, Circle's positioning will change.
It is no longer just a "digital dollar issuer."
More likely:
Payment networks in the digital finance era.
Similar to the global settlement systems established over the past decades by Visa and Mastercard.
But that's where the problem lies.
Issuing dollars and controlling dollar flows are two completely different things.
USDC is now at scale.
Compliance advantages.
Recognized by institutions.
But what truly determines Circle's value is whether there will be enough transactions, payments, and asset issuances within its system in the future.
Otherwise, Arc might just be another blockchain.
The market is not short of chains.
What is lacking is the people who use the chain.
That's why I think Circle's most crucial battle right now isn't competing with USDT.
USDT addresses liquidity in the crypto market.
What Circle wants to solve is the entry point for traditional finance to enter the chain.
These two stories have completely different valuation logic.
If RWA is widely deployed on-chain in the future, AI agents begin to automate payments, and enterprises start using stablecoins for global settlements, then Circle could become an important infrastructure in the digital dollar era.
But if stablecoins ultimately become just a substitute for the US dollar in the trading market, then Circle's ceiling may still be limited.
So Arc is more than just a new product for Circle.
It was more like an identity upgrade.
USDC gave Circle the US dollar.
Arc determines whether Circle can have an entry point for dollar flows.
The current market discussion is about how much Circle is worth.
But the real issue is:
In the next ten years, will the US dollar on the internet pass through Circle?
This is its greatest room for imagination $CRCL
DYOR。
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? Every round has a group of people: watching US stocks with AI rally and gold hitting new highs, they convince themselves "$BTC should catch up too," then go all out and wait for the wind. But before the wind comes, wallets are emptied. Catch-up rallies aren't about power, but about others being willing to transfer profits — when funds are making huge profits in AI and gold, why come to pick up your 64K sideways trade? "Should it rise or not" itself is the most honest signal: it's telling you that consensus isn't here. Don't use the word "sooner or later" to bolster your courage—it's gamblers' favorite anesthetic. Figure out where the incremental value is, then decide whether to put in a position.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk's financial report is a case of "getting a perfect score but still criticized for being biased": a deviation of 8.97 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, adjusted EPS of $39.25, pushing consensus to a tough spot, and casually approving 14 billion yuan in buybacks, with refunds piling up to 15.5 billion yuan—so much cash that there's nowhere to spend it, AI storage really makes a great deal.
But US stocks love to pick fights: FY2027 Q1 guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, the median value lacks logic, and after the market just puts on a high jump for water. In other words: profits are ridiculously good, but people start calculating, "How much longer can this round of storage price hikes last? High-bandwidth demand isn't just eating off the grain."
Market closure has shifted from "AI is real" to "this wave of dividends can still be enjoyed a few times." Performance is the rearview mirror; guidance is the windshield—the after-hours pit is a golden pit catching a flying knife, and tomorrow capital will vote with its feet.
$SNDK Every round has a group of people: watching US stocks with AI rally and gold hitting new highs, they convince themselves "$BTC should catch up too," then go all out and wait for the wind. But before the wind comes, wallets are emptied. Catch-up rallies aren't about power, but about others being willing to transfer profits — when funds are making huge profits in AI and gold, why come to pick up your 64K sideways trade? "Should it rise or not" itself is the most honest signal: it's telling you that consensus isn't here. Don't use the word "sooner or later" to bolster your courage—it's gamblers' favorite anesthetic. Figure out where the incremental value is, then decide whether to put in a position.聊个被地缘噪音盖住的宏观牌面。惠誉把布伦特 Q4 砍到 70 美元，说油市 9 月起重新供应过剩。油一软，之前那套「打仗→通胀→逼美联储加息」的故事就得打折。很多人一看中东就条件反射喊避险买币，方向经常反——真正定价的是利率预期，不是导弹。油跌利率松，本来该利好风险资产，可加密偏偏不涨，这说明问题出在币圈自己的增量上，不在宏观。别把宏观当万能挡箭牌，先搞清楚你赌的到底是哪条腿。聊个被地缘噪音盖住的宏观牌面。惠誉把布伦特 Q4 砍到 70 美元，说油市 9 月起重新供应过剩。油一软，之前那套「打仗→通胀→逼美联储加息」的故事就得打折。很多人一看中东就条件反射喊避险买币，方向经常反——真正定价的是利率预期，不是导弹。油跌利率松，本来该利好风险资产，可加密偏偏不涨，这说明问题出在币圈自己的增量上，不在宏观。别把宏观当万能挡箭牌，先搞清楚你赌的到底是哪条腿。#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
昨晚ADP就业新增只有4.4万人，大幅低于市场预期，消息出来后，黄金直接拉升，BTC也出现一波反弹，不少人开始喊美联储要转向了。
但现在下这个结论，还太早。
ADP影响市场情绪可以，但真正决定9月政策预期的，还是周五的非农和下周的CPI。
现在最大的矛盾就在这里。
就业开始降温，意味着经济没之前那么强，美联储继续维持高利率的压力有所减轻；可通胀依然没有完全压下去，美联储也不敢轻易松口。
一个支持降息，一个支持继续紧缩，市场自然不知道该往哪边押。
对于BTC来说，过去几个月最大的压力一直都是高利率预期。只要就业持续走弱，利率预期就有机会缓和，对风险资产会形成一定支撑。
但如果非农重新超预期，市场又会开始交易加息逻辑，BTC很可能再次承压。
所以现在最好的策略，不是猜方向，而是等方向。
目前BTC还是震荡行情，没有出现明确突破信号，数据公布前轻仓等待，比提前豪赌更划算。
真正决定行情的，不是昨晚的ADP，而是接下来两份更重要的数据。
刺哥说完了，你细品。 Crypto price action is no longer the best measure of progress in digital assets.
Historically, Bitcoin was a reasonable proxy. Today, the better measure is how much financial activity is moving onto digital asset infrastructure:
- Digital asset venues are becoming multi-asset markets. RWA Perpetual traded $525 billion in Q1'26 - 68% more than in all of 2025. Average open interest was more than 5X last year’s level.
- Tokenization is creating active markets, not just digital representations. Active on-chain RWA value more than quadrupled from the start of 2025 through Q1'26. Tokenized gold alone traded $91 billion in Q1, more than in all of 2025.
- Institutional credit is moving on-chain. Borrowing across major on-chain private credit protocols reached $2.3 billion in Q1'26, up nearly 6X from the start of 2025. At FalconX, our overcollateralized credit vault has more than doubled this year to over $170 million.
The key shift is that we have moved past simple on-chain asset representation. Now, the core markets surrounding these assets - trading, financing, and risk management - are beginning to operate on digital infrastructure. This is why FalconX is expanding beyond crypto.
Bitcoin remains foundational. But by this broader measure, 2026 is a pivotal year.
#DailyOrbit $SPCX $SNDK $ETH Profits in favorable times can easily lead to self-complacency, covering up all cognitive shortcomings. Only losses will mercilessly expose blind spots. Every loss costs an irreplaceable tuition fee. Only by calmly reviewing and correcting, cutting losses in time, and updating your mindset can the losses you have suffered become the confidence to weather future storms. #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen with the market? Robinhood's willingness to list tokens from their own chain will change our industry forever.
Think about how we've done things for 15 years.
Crypto native L1 launches, tokens launch on the L1s.
This model was designed to hope people used the tech and to hope retail will show up.
We were building venues inside an empty room and the audience showed up once every 4 years.
Then we were stuck with the same 40,000 people passing the same liquidity around, calling it adoption.
Now a coin can launch on Robinhood chain and end up visible inside an app that people already opened this morning to check their pension contributions.
This is a billboard on a road retail already drives down.
One which has over 14 million monthly users which changes everything from a psychological perspective.
Memecoin on PumpFun looks like gambling. The exact same memecoin sitting in a brokerage app, three rows under apple and tesla, looks like an asset.
When you put the same asset behind an interface with a customer service number and a login you already trust, the whole risk calculation moves.
Which is why I think the L1 era is basically finished.
A retail application with an L2 is the new L1.
#DailyOrbit 2026 8.7 ETH BTC SNDK
Latest news: ETH rebound faces resistance! A counterfeit barometer—this position determines the fate of 🔥 small-cap coins
ETH Ethereum | Today's Market Analysis
📊 Current market status
ETH's current price fluctuated around 1900 USDT, with a slight rebound within 24 hours. The overall trend was fully tied to the BTC market, showing a passive recovery phase without independent driving force.
Trading volume remains sluggish, indicating a game of existing funds; Staking locked remains high, with large amounts of ETH continuously transferred out of exchanges, and on-chain tokens are well-accumulated, but institutional ETF inflows and outflows alternate, with institutions taking a cautious attitude.
ETH is the barometer for the altcoin sector: when the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthens, funds flow into altcoins; ETH underperforms BTC, making it difficult for small-cap coins to sustain their rally.
🎯 Key technical price points
- First support: 1870 USDT; Strong support: 1850 USDT
If it effectively breaks below 1850, the rebound structure will be broken, and the altcoins will return to a consolidation downward range, with altcoins facing pressure and correction in sync.
- First resistance: 1927 (100-day moving average); Strong resistance at 1960-1970 USDT
A high volume must stabilize above 1927 to open up further upside potential; A high with no volume is likely to rise and then pull back, which is a bullish pulse market.
🔥 Today's market hotspots are catalysts
1. ETF capital divergence
ETH spot ETF funds fluctuated repeatedly, with alternating net inflows and outflows for a single day, without sustained large inflows; Staking ETF funds outperformed spot ETFs, with institutions favoring staking yield products and lacking strong buying momentum in the short term.
2. Completely follow the rhythm of BTC
BTC is in a market reversal window, and ETH has no ability to break out of its own rally. Only when BTC breaks upward will ETH open up room for a rebound; If BTC breaks below key support, ETH's decline will be amplified.
3. Cooling down ecological narratives
Layer 2 and EIP upgrade proposals are still in the community discussion stage, with no major short-term positive developments; Market funds have been snatched away by RWA and DePIN themes, and the ETH ecosystem lacks major events that ignite the market.
4. Knockoff Front Signals
Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has not significantly strengthened, indicating that funds have not yet flowed widely into the altcoin sector. Most altcoins are just one-day market rotations and are unlikely to produce weekly-level major rallies at the market level.
📈 Three scenario simulations
✅ Optimistic scenario (low probability)
Holding the 1870 support, BTC is rising with increased volume, ETH holding above the 1927 resistance level, further challenging the 1960-1970 resistance, driving the altcoin sector into a localized minor rally; A high-volume rally will lead to a rapid pullback.
⚖️ Neutral oscillation (current highest probability)
oscillating back and forth between 1850 and 1927, repeatedly inserting pins to clear leverage, waiting for external news to trigger the market; The knockoff sector rotated rapidly, then pulled back after the pulse.
❌ A pessimistic scenario
The market has weakened, effectively breaking below the key support at 1850, marking the complete end of the rebound. If it pulls back to near 1800, small-cap staggered stocks will see significant pullbacks.
✍️ Market summary
ETH is now the market's "knockoff starter".
1850 and 1927 are today's life-or-death watershed. Only by holding firm under pressure can there be a chance to drive fake counterfeits; If it breaks below support, market risk will rapidly amplify.
Until ETH has a clear direction, small-cap theme coins are only suitable for short-term betting and should not blindly position in the medium to long term.
(Personal opinion analysis only, for reference only)
Let's all move forward steadily and let's cheer for $ETH $BTC $SNDK 说句可能打自己脸的话：我把存储的空头论点砍了，反手做多。别急着骂我变脸——交易不是比谁嘴硬，是比谁认错快。之前看空的逻辑是估值透支，但当长鑫敢拒绝苹果压价、连英伟达都要为 HBM 缺货给显存让路，供需这条腿已经站到了多头这边，原来的做空理由被现实一条条抽掉了。论点被证伪就该走人，死扛旧仓位是散户最贵的自尊税。方向我认，点位我不喊——自己看结构。$MUDogecoin is the "Asset Least Favored by Institutions" Mainstream institutional research reports almost never cover DOGE, and it's not on ETF application lists. This state of being "ignored by institutions" has instead become a consensus among retail investors?
If institutions don't like $DOGE, you have to look at it from the opposite perspective. Goldman Sachs & Morgan reports piled up, Bitcoin and Ethereum were repeatedly covered, DOGE couldn't even get a footnote, and ETF application lists were absent for years, as if it didn't exist.
But it is precisely this disregard that turns DOGE into something for retail investors. BTC is now a toy for big capital; whether it rises depends on how much ETF inflows and the Fed's stance. Retail investors holding onto those few fractions of coins are more like carrying a sedan chair for institutions.
DOGE is different; it has no institutional pricing power. Price is purely a thermometer of retail investor sentiment. When prices rise, everyone shouts together; when prices fall, everyone runs out together. At least the rules are fair, with no information gap harvesting. No one writes research reports means there is no "target price" or such tight restriction. The room for imagination is open; retail investors trust the community, memes, and the mass base built up over more than a decade, not the stamped paper on Wall Street.
Even better, the consequence of institutions not entering is a clean chip structure. Without the whale-like BlackRock scaring you by selling or increasing holdings daily, the logic of price movements remains: whether the human heart is still there.
So this "ignored" is not DOGE's flaw, but its moat—the more mainstream finance looks down on it, the more it belongs to the grassroots sector. And when institutions do start covering it, you should be cautious, because that usually means retail investors' cheap chips are already being coveted.Saylor says "I'll never sell coins," but his body is honest
STRC has reached 94.6, a 51-day high. It has rebounded nearly 30% from the low of around 71 at the end of June.
Sounds pretty impressive, right? But guess how they did it—
Selling Bitcoin is what it does
From late July to early August, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC at an average price of $63,957. How much did they cost? $75,419. Each coin was selling at a loss of $11,000
They sold over 100 million USD, half of which went to preferred stock dividends and half to buy back discounted STRCs. They also managed to raise their dollar cash reserves to 4 billion
This combination of moves — selling coins to support the market, buying back to boost the stock price, holding the 12% dividend — indeed pushed STRC from 71 to 94
But have you ever thought about it?
STRC rebounded 30%, BTC was still fluctuating between 64,000 and 65,000, about the same as at the end of June. Saylor himself was using his BTC reserves to buy his preferred shares to market the market. He said, "If it falls below $100, I will never issue new shares," meaning that as long as the stock price is below face value, he will sell coins to buy back and hold on
Some say STRC's rise signals BTC's rise, but I think you're overthinking it—it's just supporting the market, not BTC about to take off. STRC's goal is to return to the $100 face value, which has little to do with BTC's short-term trend
Don't take the STRC rebound as a signal that BTC is about to take off
Focus on BTC or its own structure—if 65,000 can't hold steady, don't rush to act用数据给加密的「掉队」量个体温。这个月美股天天创新高、现货黄金刷历史新高，冒险的钱和避险的钱同时在涌；唯独 $BTC 焊在 64K 附近，24 小时涨幅不到 0.2%，对 risk-on 和避险两套逻辑同时失灵。这不是随机——当一个资产在两种极端环境里都没反应，通常说明它的边际买盘正在被别的赛道抽走。价格横住不代表安全，代表没有新增共识。别用「迟早补涨」骗自己，先问增量资金凭什么回来。数据不会陪你演戏。"The market doesn't punish bad earnings—it punishes fading expectations."
SanDisk just reminded everyone of that lesson in brutal fashion.
I opened my short around 1337, and with the stock now trading near 1212, the position is up more than 120 points. The thesis wasn't about weak numbers. In fact, the earnings report looked almost perfect:
• Revenue surged 372% year over year to $8.97 billion
• EPS exploded to $39.25
• Gross margin hit a record 84.6%
• Data-center revenue jumped 437%
• Another $14 billion buyback was approved
On paper, everything looked incredible.
So why did the stock collapse from 1480 to nearly 1210?
Because Wall Street doesn't price yesterday's victory—it prices tomorrow's growth.
The real problem was guidance.
Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue came in below expectations, profit growth is beginning to slow, and margins appear to be peaking. Suddenly, the market stopped asking, "How good was the last quarter?" and started asking, "Is this the best it gets?"
That's what triggered the sell-off.
How I'm managing the short
My stop-loss has been moved down to 1300, locking in profits even if we see a sharp rebound.
Profit-taking plan:
• Close 30% between 1150–1180
• Close another 30% between 1080–1100
• Exit the remaining 40% around 1000–1020
If price rebounds into 1250–1270 on weak volume, that's a potential area to add. If buyers reclaim 1300 with strength, the bearish thesis is invalidated.
Why I'm watching 1088 for longs
This isn't blind bottom-fishing.
The 1080–1100 zone sits near major technical support and a dense area of historical buying interest. The stock has already fallen nearly 58% from its highs, and short-term indicators are deeply oversold.
More importantly, the long-term story hasn't disappeared:
• AI storage demand remains strong
• Analysts still see significant upside
• 2026 capacity is reportedly sold out
• NAND prices continue to recover
If we reach 1088, I'll consider building a position gradually with limited leverage and strict risk management.
#DailyOrbit Using data to measure individual temperatures for encrypted "falling behind." This month, US stocks hit new highs every day, spot gold hit record highs, and both risk money and safe-haven money surged in; Only $BTC was near 64K, with a 24-hour increase of less than 0.2%, failing both risk-on and hedging logics. This is not randomness—when an asset does not react in both extreme environments, it usually means its marginal buying is being pulled away by other sectors. Flat prices do not mean safety; it means there is no new consensus. Don't fool yourself with the phrase 'sooner or later, catch up'—first ask why incremental funds are coming back. Data won't play along with you.$SNDK Sandili's bearish impact on the storage sector, Micron deep V reversal—is it time to buy the dip?
SanDisk's recent financial report looks like they've made a lot of money, and even using it to buy back their own shares—this should have been a good thing.
However, it has been conservative in its performance expectations for next quarter. Institutions believe the growth rate of AI storage will slow down, so they have sold SanDisk, directly dragging the entire storage sector down.
Micron also panicked and fell along with the market at first, with many people afraid to crash alongside them $MU
After dropping to a low point, some funds believed that HBM high-end chips were a necessity for AI. Now that the price has dropped a lot and offers high cost-effectiveness, they bought the dip and pulled back at the close, exiting a deep V rally.
However, this rise is just short-term capital betting on a rebound, not a complete market reversal.
Right now, in the entire storage industry, people are uncertain whether they can keep making money at high speed; the market will continue to fluctuate.
Summary
Now is not the time to rush to bottom-fish. Micron's rebound is just a rebound in sentiment; industry concerns have not yet been eliminated.
It's best to wait until this negative side is fully digested and orders and performance can steadily grow before making a move. Rushing in carries the risk of further declines.
$SKHYNIX #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorization #ADP就业降温, widening Fed policy divergences #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资, valuations exceeding $20 billion Let me use a thermometer for the credit market. Alphabet's latest ultra-large-scale bond issuance received about $115 billion in orders, more than four times the planned limit, and subscription enthusiasm even surpassed Amazon and SpaceX's recent AI-related bond issuances. The insight of this data is that: after the initial sell-off, institutions have reopened their wallets for 'debt pledged on AI infrastructure.' Credit spreads haven't widened, but are actually rushing to buy, indicating the market doesn't see AI capex as a bubble about to collapse—at least the debt side is still surviving. Money in risk assets often heats up first in the credit market, and this early signal is worth watching. Position size speaks for itself.Let me use a thermometer for the credit market. Alphabet's latest ultra-large-scale bond issuance received about $115 billion in orders, more than four times the planned limit, and subscription enthusiasm even surpassed Amazon and SpaceX's recent AI-related bond issuances. The insight of this data is that: after the initial sell-off, institutions have reopened their wallets for 'debt pledged on AI infrastructure.' Credit spreads haven't widened, but are actually rushing to buy, indicating the market doesn't see AI capex as a bubble about to collapse—at least the debt side is still surviving. Money in risk assets often heats up first in the credit market, and this early signal is worth watching. Position size speaks for itself.矿工和社区就是CORE穿越牛熊的底气所在。
数以百万计的比特矿工托管算力来保护网络的安全性，数以千计的老矿工们多年如一日地坚守岗位、自发地进行知识传播和秩序维护。
去中心化的公链生命力，并不是由资本炒作而来，而是依靠众多参与者长久以来的共同建设以及对它的信任所维系。
稳定的社区基础就是CORE最坚固的城墙。战争的目的是要消除战争。 市场的多空双方经过一段时间的拉锯之后将会趋于平稳。我们一直坚持$CORE，并不是为了追求短期投机暴利，而是因为看好它重新构建比特币生态系统的初衷，打破比特币单一存储的价值限制，建立没有中间商、公开透明的去中心化金融和支付系统，用实际落地的价值来消除市场上无休止的炒作和对立。
我们在谈论问题的时候应该以实际情况为基础，而不能只凭定义来判断。$CORE 不可以使用传统的公链固化的标准来评判。 共识、比特币原生赋能、去中心化的支付生态系统都是行业的首次尝试，并没有可以参照的先例。评价它的价值的时候要从真实的落地场景、链上的数据和生态的规模出发，不能有刻板印象或者情绪化的看法。人民是唯一能够创造出世界历史的力量。
Web3 的主要特点是去中心化自治。CORE每次的技术更新和生态突破都是由社区用户提出并共同完成的，而团队只负责实施，完全符合DAO自治的核心理念。 正是众多普通持有人的坚持才使得CORE一步步发展成为BTCFi领域的领头羊。
所有的反动派$UB 都是一只纸老虎。 有意抹黑、唱衰、蹭流量的人，虽然声势很大，但是实际上很虚弱。 这样的舆论没有技术逻辑、没有持仓信仰、没有长远眼光，只为了制造恐慌来吸引眼球，最终也只能是过眼云烟。
只有$CORE坚持去中心化的初衷，并且不断加强生态的价值，那么所有的流言蜚语都会自行消散。纵观整个加密市场，热点轮换不停歇，空气项目也很快就会消失。只有同时具备硬核的技术、真实的落地、去中心化的基础以及深厚的社区信仰的项目才能够渡过周期。 $CORE承载着众多行业的从业者的入行初心，依靠BTCFi独特的创新逻辑，拥有强大的持久价值。
抛弃浮躁的情绪，以客观的态度去面对现实，坚持自己的信念，时间总会给每一个$CORE忠实参与者一个满意的答复。
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 After the SPCX plunged 13.61% in a single day and closed at $108.27, even more alarming signals appeared in the options market—
More than 50,000 put options expiring this Friday are concentrated at the $100 strike price.
Around $100, the market is already packed with gunpowder. Will it become a breakout point for accelerated decline, or a rebound floor where all negative news has been released?
1. Why $100? This is no coincidence
The latest options data shows that there are 50,158 $100 put open interest contracts expiring this Friday, with only 4,655 calls at the same price, and the Put/Call ratio for a single strike price has risen to 10.78:1.
50,000 Puts correspond to about 5 million SPCX spot positions.
Based on yesterday's closing price, $100 is only about 7.6% away from the current price.
This means that $100 is no longer just an ordinary psychological threshold.
It is the price at which the protected position, naked short trading, and market maker hedging positions collide together:
- Shareholders buy puts here as a downside insurance
- Bears bet here to break down and plunge
- Market makers hedge risk exposures here
But be clear: Put long ≠ everyone is bare-knitting short.
Open interest only tells us where the chips are concentrated; it cannot directly prove that everyone is bearish—there may also be institutions placing orders to buy and engaging in combination strategies.
2. Real risk: Declines will be self-fulfilling
Options are not prophetic, but under extreme open interest, they can directly drive spot prices.
Assuming this batch of puts is mainly bought by investors and sold by market makers, then the closer the SPCX gets to $100, the higher the Put's sensitivity to the stock price (Gamma rises rapidly).
To control risk, market makers must sell more stocks to hedge exposure.
Thus, a negative feedback chain is formed:
Stock price drops → puts value soars → market makers oversell spot hedges→ stock price is further plunged toward $100
This is the core highlight of this data:
The market is not just betting on a drop in SPCX; it may also use hedging mechanisms to turn the decline into reality.
Of course, the strength of this effect depends on the market maker's true net position, and public open interest alone cannot guarantee 100% confirmation.
3. Double Kill: Option pressure hits the 100 billion unlock threshold
Relying solely on 50,000 puts may not be enough to move a trillion-yuan market cap company.
But this time is different—it coincides with the largest IPO restriction in US stock market history.
Starting August 6, the first batch of restricted shares in SPCX was unlocked, with up to 912 million shares eligible for sale—more than 1.4 times the original public tradable shares, corresponding to a market value exceeding $100 billion.
Unlocking does not mean everyone will sell immediately, but it has completely changed market supply expectations:
Already fragile sentiment, combined with massive potential selling pressure, is enough for funds to hedge in advance.
This week's situation is a combination of two forces:
Unlocking amplifies potential selling pressure, and options hedging accelerates the release of selling pressure.
The market's concern is no longer about yesterday's 13% drop, but whether once the stock price hits $100, it will trigger a mechanical stamp-and-sell.
4. Conversely: $100 could also be the starting point for a rebound
There are always two sides to the story.
If the SPCX falls to around $100 but still fails to break below it effectively, then as Friday's expiration approaches, the time value of this put will quickly drop to zero.
Spot shorts previously sold for hedging are gradually bought back to close positions.
At that point, the trading chain will completely reverse:
$100 holds, → put, rapid depreciation→ hedged buying → stock price rallying against the trend
So 50,000 puts doesn't mean it will definitely fall below $100.
It simply means: around $100, someone will definitely be forced to trade.
- When it falls below the threshold, market makers and stop-loss orders are forced to sell
- When holding, hedge traders and short-term bears are forced to buy back
Conclusion
The core conflict with SPCX this week is no longer about whether the market is optimistic about SpaceX.
Instead: when the stock price reaches $100, who will be forced to sell first?
If the price drops below $100 with increased volume, it will become a downward accelerator, and the negative Gamma effect will amplify the decline;
After touching it during the session, it quickly pulled back; this is the starting point when all the negative news has been exhausted. Short buying can trigger a quick rebound.
Options won't tell you the outcome
It only tells you that this week's battlefield is at 100 dollars here
Ready ～
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? This is the nuance between the Japan (yen) and US economics,
The yen has fallen to its weakest level in decades because US interest rates are much higher than Japan’s.
To support the yen,
Japan may need to sell some of its huge holdings of US Treasury bonds and use the dollars to buy yen.
That is a problem for the US.
Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt, with about $1.2 trillion.
If Japan starts selling Treasuries at scale, US bond yields could rise sharply, making borrowing more expensive across the economy.
This is why the US just sold every euro to help the yen survive
but this does not fix the main cause
this large gap between US and Japanese interest rates is the "problem" for usd
and this is why longer-term currency-debasement risk comes from the liquidity backstop and the willingness to protect bond markets from forced selling
They will try every measure to save the yen because they have to and it only ends by devaluing the usd in the process
and that is why i continue to buy high desirable scarcity assets like bitcoin
#DailyOrbit Note a macro variable often overlooked by the crypto world: the US Dollar Index touched 100 today, rising 0.31% intraday. Don't underestimate this line—a strong DXY usually means tighter dollar liquidity, which poses hidden headwinds for all dollar-denominated risk assets (including $BTC). In the past two months, crypto has "followed the decline but not the rise," and part of the answer lies in the dollar curve: when the dollar offers better certainty, marginal funds have no reason to buy highly volatile assets. It's not about bearishness, but a reminder to put the dollar index on your dashboard. Data won't play along with you.The previous cycle was the first $BTC bull market, accompanied by:
- No extended push/expansion/parabola/fanaticism
- No altcoin season or BTC. D crash
- During a gold bull market, and RTY against gold declined
And many other firsts.
When people complain about how bad a bull market is, I can't help but wonder how it holds up and even reaches 120,000 in such a different macro context—considering RTY has been in a bear market for gold since 2022. Don't you think this makes BTC look stronger?
Historically, BTC pushes usually begin after the first pullback following RTY's gold reversal, and now we seem to be on the verge of that first pullback. Let's wait and see!
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? 记一个容易被币圈忽略的宏观变量：美元指数今天向上触及 100，日内涨 0.31%。别小看这条线——DXY 走强通常意味着美元流动性收紧，对所有以美元计价的风险资产（包括 $BTC）都是隐性逆风。过去两个月加密「跟跌不跟涨」，一部分答案就藏在美元这条曲线里：当美元有更好的确定性回报，边际资金没理由跑来接高波动资产的盘。不是看空谁，是提醒你把美元指数放进你的仪表盘。数据不会陪你演戏。Nvidia's next-generation Rubin Ultra plans to reduce memory capacity due to insufficient supply of advanced HBM, shifting the AI industry's bottleneck from computing chips to storage chips, becoming the core driver of the current integration between the tech sector and crypto assets in the US stock market.
Physical supply chains suppress memory stacking, and advanced HBM supply is in short supply, slowing the pace of computing power expansion and propagating upstream memory chip factories along the DRAM chain. In the ranking of driving factors, upstream pellet manufacturers have the highest supply and demand pricing power, followed by rising end-user computing costs leading to a valuation recalibration of tech stocks, and finally a resonance of risk sentiment across the market due to high correlation.
The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has exceeded 0.8, and fluctuations in tech heavyweights in US stocks directly translate into liquidity pressure in the crypto market. Storage bottlenecks raise the operating costs of AI models. If U.S. stocks trigger risk asset deleveraging due to supply chain concerns, BTC, with its high beta attributes, will find it difficult to break out of a one-sided rally.
The scenario triggered by upstream storage giants like $MU is that the ongoing capacity shortage of upstream storage giants translates into price elasticity, and the US valuation logic successfully absorbs the negative impact of memory memory adjustments. If the U.S. tech sector stabilizes and rises and U.S. Treasury yields fall, BTC will follow the Nasdaq upward, and the decentralized computing power concept will also gain a valuation premium due to persistently high computing costs. This script fails as a signal: the industry's expansion rate exceeding expectations, resulting in short-term oversupply.
The trigger for the downside scenario is the continued escalation of Nvidia's supply chain issues, raising institutional concerns about the overall slowdown in growth among U.S. tech stocks. If the Nasdaq experiences a sharp correction, US Treasury yields remain high, suppressing liquidity, BTC will fall in tandem with US stocks due to deleveraging pressure, and pure concept crypto projects will face liquidity exhaustion. This scenario failed signal: upstream pellet deliveries exceeding expectations or macro liquidity easing again.
If the correlation between the U.S. tech sector and crypto assets rapidly decouples and falls below 0.5, cross-market coordinated predictions will immediately fail. At that point, asset pricing will return to their internal capital logic, rather than being dominated by supply chain events in the US-based tech sector.
In the next 7 days, focus on Micron $MU's stock price absorption of the HBM transmission chain, the overall volatility of U.S. tech weights, and changes in BTC's correlation coefficient with Nasdaq.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, Scale Halved #黄金重返4200美元—Why Has BTC Not Risen Accordingly?#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped 15%, which is confusing to me.
Last night, while lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone, I saw SanDisk released its earnings report. Revenue was 8.97 billion, surpassing the market expectation of 8.48 billion. EPS was $39.25, also beating estimates. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, and with the remaining from before, the total buyback can reach $15.5 billion. The numbers look pretty good, yet the stock fell more than 15% after hours.
I stared at it for a while but still didn’t fully understand. After checking around, the market is talking about the Q1 guidance midpoint of 10.3 billion, which is lower than Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the stock had risen too much, expectations were set too high, and when the results came out and didn’t seem strong enough, it got sold off. Last year it rose more than sevenfold, climbing all the way to 2300, so any slight disturbance causes people to run. Additionally, the Changxin incident is also weighing on the whole sector sentiment.
The performance itself is fine; AI storage demand is still supporting it. But the valuation is too high, expectations too elevated, so any slight disappointment leads to a sell-off. Retail investors cut losses, institutions unload shares.
Good performance, stock price drops,,,,
#DailyOrbit Here's a hard footnote to this storage supercycle: NVIDIA is reportedly considering cutting HBM memory capacity for the next-generation Rubin Ultra—not because they don't want to stack, but because advanced high-bandwidth memory simply can't be supplied. Even the hash power leader is giving way to memory, indicating the bottleneck has shifted from GPU to memory chips themselves. Data is honester than narrative—HBM shortages are carried up the entire DRAM chain, and the most price elasticity is often among the upstream chip manufacturers. Storage stocks pulled back today, but the fundamentals curve is still moving upward. Speak by supply and demand, not by sentiment $MUSanDisk SNDK is an on-chain token mapped from the US-listed SanDisk stock, not a native project token. It leverages the popularity of the storage chip industry to attract speculative funds from the crypto community. This token lacks an actual project implementation and token economic model; its value is entirely pegged to the US-listed SanDisk stock price, while also amplified by leverage and speculative sentiment in the crypto market, resulting in double magnified price volatility.
From the market characteristics, the token has generally poor depth and weak liquidity, with holdings highly concentrated in the hands of a few major players. The market often experiences spikes, sudden pumps, and dumps; the token price does not fully follow the US stock’s movement, leading to severe decoupling between the token price and the stock price, causing abnormal premiums and discounts. Contract trading carries extremely high liquidation risks. Major players can manipulate expectations through news to lure retail investors into buying at high prices, then quickly dump their holdings causing the token price to sharply retract.
On the risk side, this mapped token has no official endorsement and is a third-party on-chain derivative product, with potential black swan risks such as the mapping institution running away, contract vulnerabilities, and liquidation failures. Virtual currency trading and speculation are banned domestically, and related trades are not legally protected with no channels for rights protection. Even if the US stock performs well, the crypto version may independently decline due to crypto market sentiment.
Ordinary participants are easily misled by the storage sector theme and overlook the inherent risks of the mapped token, suffering significant losses after chasing price increases. It is not recommended for ordinary investors to engage in spot or contract trading of this token. Be wary of thematic speculation traps and stay away from on-chain stock-mapped speculative assets.