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The sharp surge on September 3rd with BTC hitting 80,500 and ETH touching 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze”:
① Macro view ignites: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted “August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September,” CME’s September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened.
② Shorts squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering aggressively bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by day’s end, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around $150–250 million.
③ ETF takes over but doesn’t ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was $3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of $101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying hasn’t returned.
④ Resistance unbroken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily chart is overbought above 70.
In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, with ETF providing support but US buying remains weak #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue CASHCAT on OKX Perpetuals, the most noteworthy thing here isn't how well the name rides the sentiment wave, but that the exchange has directly connected a meme token from the Robinhood Chain into the high-leverage trading zone. OKX's announcement is very straightforward: CASHCAT/USDT perpetuals will launch on September 3, 2026, at 03:30 UTC, covering web, app, and API platforms. The settlement currency is USDT, the funding rate follows the perpetual contract mechanism, and trading is 24/7. In other words, this is not a regular spot listing but a tool for short-term capital to express itself faster and more aggressively. This distinction needs to be made clear first. Spot trading buys the coin, at most exposed to price fluctuations; perpetuals buy the direction, layered with margin, funding rates, and liquidation mechanisms. For memes, this structure amplifies sentiment. When the market is favorable, trading volume and social media hype tend to push each other; once funding rates squeeze and order books thin, the pullback can be harsher than spot. The narrative around CASHCAT itself is not complicated. The public page shows it revolves around Robinhood's early "Cash Cat" historical name and on-chain community memes, with the market categorizing it under Robinhood Chain-related memes. On CoinGecko's current page, CASHCAT already shows relatively high 24-hour trading volume and a market cap in the hundreds of millions of dollars range. Here "Even the big exchanges can't afford it, Ethereum L2 shuts down"
South Korea's compliant big exchange has finally pulled the plug on the Layer 2 network.
For the past two years, everyone has been wildly hyping one-click chain launches, thinking that just creating an official wallet to divert traffic would let them earn toll fees passively. But after more than half a year online, the on-chain funds haven't even reached $10 million.
Sequencer nodes run around the clock every day, cloud server bills are paid out of pocket monthly, and Ethereum upgrades have completely eliminated the toll fee arbitrage, so the collected fees aren't even enough to buy a few cups of coffee.
Korbit and the operators simply locked cross-chain deposits, setting a hard deadline to completely shut down by the end of the year, with funds returned via the original route.
Rather than losing money daily on electricity bills running a ghost town, it's better to close early and cut losses. $ETH The $CORE project team said this hard fork would burn 150 million, and the community praised it, quickly forgetting the nearly 300 million oversupply. They also didn't mention the malicious nodes at all, never said anything about contacting the malicious nodes to return tokens, sold so many coins on OK, and didn't say anything about tracking and punishing those who acted maliciously. The chance of this being a self-directed drama is very high. This morning, the updated hash rate dropped again, down to only 57% 😂😂😂$CORE is really interesting. The core project team is completely dodging the main issues. First, the team said they burned 150 million tokens, but I just checked the contract, and the burn contract still shows the original 8 million plus. I don't know where they burned the tokens. Secondly, the current circulating supply is still over 1.4 billion, whereas before the incident it was over 1.1 billion. So the team's claim that the nodes issued an extra 150 million rewards is also incorrect. Finally, the team said that executed transactions will not be rolled back, which means the actual extra 300 million tokens in circulation will continue to circulate. Even if 150 million were burned, the incident directly caused the current circulation to increase by 150 million. The 150 million should have been unlocked over 5 years, but now it was dumped on the market, effectively devaluing everyone's tokens by 15% or more. Are the two nodes really the only ones who received the 150 million tokens? From my on-chain observations, after the two nodes received the tokens, they systematically moved them through multiple new wallets, washing them repeatedly, and programmatically flowing them into exchanges. Such organized and planned liquidation—who would believe it’s not premeditated? In short, whoever has the ability to pull this off is obviously the biggest beneficiary. The project team should answer directly. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue The real reasons behind this BTC/ETH rally
1. Tonight, Federal Reserve officials' speeches leaned dovish, and the market preemptively priced in rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields declined, leading risk assets to surge first. The market is front-running rate cut expectations on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls.
2. $BTC, as the large-cap leader, led the way, with $ETH following with beta elasticity; ZEC is a small-cap coin, where short-term leveraged funds concentratedly rushed in, amplifying its elasticity, so its gains far exceeded the big coins.
3. The 15-minute candlestick shows consecutive large bullish candles, MACD surged rapidly, and the short-term is already in an overbought state.
Key risks
This is a preview rally based on expectations, not the actual nonfarm payroll results.
Tomorrow is the real test:
• If tomorrow's nonfarm data meets weak expectations, this rally has a chance to continue;
• If tomorrow's nonfarm data is stronger than expected, the bulls who front-ran tonight will collectively take profits and sell off, causing a significant pullback, with small-cap ZEC experiencing an even harsher correction #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain volume keeps climbing. Dune shows $1.89B in 24h DEX volume, and DeFiLlama puts 24h chain revenue near $3.38M, above most major chains. Built on Arbitrum's stack, it has generated licensing income for Arbitrum DAO, supporting ARB's revenue narrative. Memes like CashCat and Pons drive most of the heat, so the question is whether this becomes real trading and RWA demand or just hype and subsidies. OKX's built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with 0 gas fee perks.$ETH $ZEC lost big, woke up to all green, is the bull market here? It surged so much at once, wiping out the small dips of the past few days, all hitting new highs. I really am a bad omen, every time I short it goes up 😭
Forget the crypto circle, let's talk about the macro circle. Hawks and doves take turns. Last night crypto surged, the core catalyst was the sharp drop in Fed rate hike expectations:
US initial jobless claims rose more than expected, showing weakness in the labor market; Fed Governor Waller immediately sent a dovish signal, saying if inflation cools in August, he would support keeping rates unchanged. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%, easing liquidity tightening concerns and directly boosting risk assets.
Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict escalated fully (US strikes on Iranian targets met with retaliation), oil prices broke $91, gold neared historic highs, and Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as "digital gold" received extra support. Additionally, institutional funds continue to pour in—Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.5 billion in August, and BitMine significantly increased its Ethereum holdings, becoming the largest corporate holder. The dovish shift in monetary policy, geopolitical risk aversion, and institutional accumulation combined to ignite this rally.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tonight's nonfarm payrolls—don't just focus on the first line of numbers.
At 8:30, August nonfarm payrolls will be released. Everyone is watching the new jobs added, but what really matters this time is how the previous figures are revised.
In the last report, July employment was cut by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. That means the jobs previously thought to have been added actually weren't that many. If this time the new jobs barely turn positive, it looks strong at first glance, but if the previous two months are revised down significantly again, the overall trend might not actually be good.
Just looking at the first line of the quick report, you can't really tell what the market is trading on.
For BTC, this isn't necessarily a direct positive. Cooling employment could indeed lower rate hike expectations, but if the market starts worrying about the economy itself, funds might sell crypto first to hedge risk—gold ETFs are running ahead, while BTC is still fluctuating, indicating smart money is also watching.
The key points to watch are: can the improvement in new jobs withstand revisions? Is wage growth cooling down as well? Relying on just one nonfarm number to decide whether to hike rates in September is too hasty.
Also, a reminder: this is the last nonfarm report before the rate decision, but not the last key data—there's still CPI on September 11. Even if you get the direction right tomorrow night, don't rush to close your eyes and hold your position.
$BTC $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元 After a 5% short squeeze, I checked the derivatives structure and have two numbers for those still wanting to go long: first, funding rates across exchanges have all turned positive but remain mild, not reaching the extreme levels of frantic long-side payments; second, a large batch of new open interest contracts for $BTC flooded in within 4 hours.
Reading these two together: new money is chasing the highs, but sentiment hasn't reached the greed peak yet—sounds like it could still go up, right? But don't forget the other half: the 1-hour RSI has already burned up close to the overbought zone near 80.
The conclusion is: the mid-term hasn't hit the turning point yet, but jumping in right now means you're catching the hottest short-term wave. Funding rates and open interest are all out in the open, so don't just focus on the color of the candlesticks. Are you chasing now, or waiting? $OFC OFC (OneFootball Credits) is not a scam coin; it is backed by a real football app and institutional funding. However, its actual performance was a spike to $0.078 at the April TGE, then a drop to around $0.009 by September, a nearly 90% retracement. The brand is real, and the economic model is a typical "low circulation + linear unlocking + World Cup narrative" scheme — early buyers bear the selling pressure, and the utility loop hasn't been completed yet. You can use it as fan points for fun, but holding it heavily as an investment is basically paying a faith tax 📌 Why did $BTC/$ETH suddenly surge this round?
First, let's look at the logic:
Tonight, Federal Reserve officials' speeches leaned dovish, the market preemptively priced in a rate cut, US Treasury yields declined, and risk assets surged ahead. On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, funds were clearly rushing to get ahead.
On the market front:
$BTC led the rally, $ETH followed with beta; $ZEC is a small cap, short-term leverage rushed in, elasticity was fully stretched, so its gains far exceeded the big coins.
Technically:
15-minute consecutive large bullish candles, MACD rapidly rising, short-term already overbought.
❗️But note: this move is expectation-driven trading, not the actual non-farm data.
Tomorrow is the real turning point:
• Non-farm weaker than/meeting expectations → the market has room to continue
• Non-farm stronger than expectations → tonight's front-running bulls will take profits and sell off, the pullback will be sharp, $ZEC will retrace even harder
Don't let a single bullish candle change your conviction; wait for the data to speak.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 *English* People always ask: why do altcoins go into full frenzy mode before BTC really runs? Why is everyone rushing to buy them? Let’s check the data first: As of *Sept 4*, total crypto market cap is around *$2.83T*. *BTC dominance ∼56.7%*. The Altcoin Season Index is only *39/100*. Translation: we’re not in a full “alt season” yet, but the money rotation has already started. *Why alts?* It’s simple. Compared to BTC, alts have smaller caps and much bigger swings. When liquidity rotates outThe tech world is buzzing today: Nvidia acquires Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, OpenAI drops GPT-6, Broadcom's AI semiconductor guidance is up 236% year-over-year — the US stock AI narrative has leveled up again, and crypto stocks are collectively erupting, with MSTR, COIN, CRCL jumping double digits in a day.
Many get hyped seeing $BTC rise together, thinking the bull market is back. Let me pour cold water: this crypto surge isn’t driven by its own story; it’s riding the beta tail of the US stock AI frenzy. When risk appetite is on, the tail swings wildly; the day AI sentiment softens, that tail will swing worse than anyone else’s.
Don’t mistake borrowed hype for your own moat. How much of this crypto rally do you think is truly its own narrative? Account Position Divergence Radar
Account direction reflects sentiment, while position weight reflects strength. This set specifically identifies where the two do not align.
$ZEC: Both overall accounts and top accounts are bearish, but the top position size is bullish, showing a contradiction between account direction and position weight. A 15-minute drop and position reduction occurred simultaneously, indicating a deleveraging phase. Until the top position ratio falls back below 1, the bearish account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$DOGE: Bullish accounts have formed a majority, yet the top position ratio remains below 1, showing a clear misalignment between stance and position weight. The decline did not lead to position expansion; first, watch when risk exposure contraction slows. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight repairs toward the bullish side.
$SUI: Different account metrics stand on opposite sides; currently treat this as divergence without amplifying any single proportion. The price-position combination shows increased positions during the decline, with downside accompanied by exposure expansion, but still need to see if price continues to break lows. Until the divergence closes, wait for a clear response from the price-position movement.The same BlackRock, yesterday IBIT had a net inflow of $115.4 million, while its own ETHA had a net outflow of $53.4 million. Adding BTC on one side, reducing ETH on the other.
Bitcoin ETFs had a total net inflow of $101 million, while Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $48.2 million. Yet BTC is now at 81,144, up 5.03% in 24h; ETH at 2,498, up 4.63%. Prices are almost synchronized, but the money flows are opposite.
This indicates that today's ETH surge was not driven by US spot ETFs. When prices rise, funds are running; the buying is either on-chain or through contracts. Institutional preferences between BTC and ETH are already reflected in the ETF data.
Next, it depends on whether ETH can continue to follow BTC. If ETFs keep seeing net outflows daily but prices still hold, it means on-exchange sentiment is supporting it; if one day ETH starts to lag, then ETF funds have already moved ahead.
It's too early to draw conclusions now, but BlackRock has already cast its vote with money.The pre-market today is very strong, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement $BTC
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changed Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless data is good enough" to "no hike unless data is hot enough." Following his speech, the CME September rate hike probability dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4% $ETH
According to the logic that gold prices rise when rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price surge is pricing in this 10% drop in rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous 4280 price might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's non-farm payroll, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2/10/30 years all showed a significant decline. If yields rebound again, today's sharp jump might still be given back $SOL The local $BTC in South Korea has started to trade at a premium again. Bitcoin priced in Korean won on Upbit quickly rebounded from 84 million won to over 100 million won, representing about a 1% premium compared to the global USD quote.
This signal is very interesting — the risk appetite of Korean retail investors is recovering. Historically, the Korean Kimchi Premium has often been a thermometer of retail FOMO sentiment. The last significant premium appeared at the peak of the 2021 bull market, when local Korean buying was frenzied and the premium once exceeded 10%.
Now, a 1% premium is still moderate, but the direction is worth noting. The Korean market has always been highly sensitive to cryptocurrencies, with high retail participation, and their sentiment changes often lead other Asian markets. If this premium continues to widen, it may indicate a new wave of retail entry.
Of course, caution is needed against reverse actions — Korean regulators and the central bank have always been sensitive to capital outflows. If the premium becomes too high and triggers large-scale arbitrage fund flows, the risk of policy intervention cannot be ignored. The 2017-2018 cycle is a precedent.
In summary, the return of the Korean premium is a signal worth tracking, but don’t rush to conclusions. Let’s see if it can be sustained and whether the global liquidity environment cooperates.Don't mistake the bank opening for a retail investor charge.
Standard Chartered Bank has launched BTC and ETH spot trading services for institutional clients in the UAE, accessed through an entity regulated by DIFC/DFSA, and integrated into the bank's existing electronic trading platform.
The market interprets this as bullish for BTC and ETH, but the key point is not an "immediate pump." This is not a retail entry point; rather, it is a traditional major bank placing spot crypto trading into banking and forex trading channels familiar to institutions, lowering compliance, custody, and execution barriers.
Short-term may not directly translate into buy orders, but in the medium to long term, it adds to the narrative for institutional allocation. What is more worth watching next: whether it expands to more regions, whether derivatives and custody linkage are connected, and whether real trading volume increases. Only when trading volume picks up will it turn into stronger buying pressure.
Source: Cointelegraph
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100WThe two hottest topics in the community recently are: one is that Robinhood's on-chain data suddenly surged, and the other is that the $ARB (Arbitrum) revenue narrative has been brought back into the market spotlight. Today, following this topic, I'll also review the impact of CPI on the crypto space, and then go through the top thirty popular coins I’m watching one by one. First, let's talk about Robinhood's on-chain volume surge. Everyone should be familiar with Robinhood; it used to focus on commission-free US stock trading, then launched crypto wallets and on-chain access, but it was always lukewarm. Recently, whether due to user migration, promotions, or some new moves, the number of on-chain transactions, active addresses, and new addresses have all started to increase significantly, which has sparked market imagination. Many compare it to the Base chain, thinking that if Robinhood channels traditional stock users onto the chain, this entry effect could be very strong. Why is this positive for $ARB? Because Arbitrum is originally one of the L2s with the most solid revenue capabilities, including fees, sequencer income, and ecosystem project commissions. If traditional entry points like Robinhood start bringing new funds and users on-chain, the L2 fee revenue story will become even stronger. So the recent warming of the $ARB revenue narrative is not only because its own data looks good but also because the entire L2 sector is being re-examined. Previously, people only saw $ARB as a governance token, but now they are starting to value it using traditional revenue and profit valuation methods. Once this logic is proven, the valuation approach will change.$DOGE returned to 0.0878. This rise is not driven by leverage but by turnover. Accounts are shifting more towards the long side, with retail investors chasing the bullish candles; meanwhile, large holders are closing their long positions — the two sides are moving in opposite directions. In such divergence, the group that moves first is usually correct. The fee rate has consistently hovered near the baseline and has never surged. Most of the money pushing the price is not borrowed, and there are no crowded long positions above to be squeezed. There's not enough fuel to push the price further up by forcing a short squeeze. The position size is relatively small compared to turnover, resembling intraday back-and-forth trading, with no one building a base position. Judgment: The high point of this wave is most likely nearby. Going forward, it is more likely to trade sideways with a slow decline, grinding down the accounts that chased in, rather than continuing to rise directly. Conditions for bullish reversal: Large holders' position ratio turns back up and returns to the level of one day ago, while the fee rate rises continuously for two consecutive periods. If these two things happen together, it indicates real capital is adding leverage to go long, and then my above analysis would be wrong.Vance characterizes the US-Iran conflict as not a "war," again pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. US Vice President Vance stated that although the US and Iran have exchanged fire again, the current situation does not constitute a "war." The US has ended major combat operations, focusing on securing the safety of commercial oil transportation. At the same time, he once again urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to improve housing affordability, which sharply contrasts with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on controlling inflation to the 2% target.
On September 4, US Vice President Vance commented on the US-Iran situation, stating that the current conflict is not defined as a "war," and no clear timetable for ending the conflict was given. He said the US has ended major combat operations against Iran, and the core task now is to ensure Iran cannot continue to disrupt commercial oil transportation; as long as Tehran continues to attack commercial shipping, the US will not return to the negotiating table. This statement attempts to downplay the intensity of the conflict to avoid market panic pricing, while also indicating that shipping risks in the Red Sea and Hormuz Strait are unlikely to be fully eliminated in the short term, leaving the safety of oil transport routes an unresolved variable.
Regarding monetary policy, Vance again publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying that rate cuts would help improve US housing affordability and that the White House is taking its own measures to lower rates, "It would be better if the Federal Reserve could help." This directly opposes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish stance emphasizing inflation control and maintaining the 2% inflation target. The public disagreement between the White House and the Federal Reserve means market competition over policy direction will intensify: if political pressure ultimately pushes for rate cuts, preThe recent price changes of OKB might help us better understand the essence of platform tokens. On September 3rd, its price was still hovering between $104 and $106, having dropped about 7% over the past week. This correction is not an isolated event but the result of multiple intertwined factors. The fixed total supply of 21 million tokens is a fact, but scarcity does not automatically equal appreciation. The value support for OKB now relies more on actual use cases such as X Layer transaction fees, Exchange OS, OKX Pay, and ecosystem staking. Rather than focusing on the narrative of "benchmarking Bitcoin," it is better to track more concrete indicators like mainnet activity and Gas consumption. Another identity of platform tokens is being the "shadow stock" of the exchange. OKB's valuation is closely linked to OKX's spot and futures trading volumes, listing pace, proof of reserves, and regulatory progress such as MiCA. Once negative news arises on regulatory or security fronts, its reaction tends to be more sensitive than typical public chain tokens. Thin liquidity is also worth noting. Although the circulating supply seems scarce, some platforms have only $20 to $30 million in 24-hour trading volume, and large orders can easily cause noticeable slippage. The surge from above $80 in August to $115, then back to around $105 in September, looks more like data validation after expectations were fully priced in rather than the start of a trend reversal. The macro environment is also exerting influence. High U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices, and rising market expectations for a September FOMC rate hike naturally put high-beta OKB in the frontline. In the short term, the trend is still likely to be driven by ecosystem data and macro sentiment #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Today software stocks finally had their moment: $SNOW surged as much as 25%, while $AVGO, which just reported earnings, dropped over 5%. The market's expectations for "exceeding forecasts" are on a completely different level.
Snowflake's latest quarterly revenue was $1.55 billion, with product revenue at $1.49 billion, up 37% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.62, all clearly surpassing expectations. More importantly, the company raised its full-year product revenue guidance from $5.84 billion directly to $6.07 billion. Management also said that about half of the recent growth acceleration comes from AI.
On the other hand, Broadcom's Q3 revenue was $29.59 billion, up 86% year-over-year, with AI semiconductor revenue soaring 221% to $16.7 billion—these numbers are really impressive; however, the Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8 billion is slightly below the market expectation of $35.03 billion, causing the stock to fall over 5% today.
This is the most interesting aspect of the current earnings season: it’s not "good performance equals stock rise," but who can raise market expectations further.
I am now more inclined to watch software stocks. Hardware AI has been traded for a long time; this $SNOW earnings report shows that enterprises are starting to invest real money to integrate AI into data and software. The next wave of capital may continue to flow into software companies that can realize AI revenue.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Today, September 4 - Part Two
- **Current Major Change: Waller's dovish shift brings a short-term rebound in risk appetite.**
4. **The global high interest rate environment remains fundamentally unchanged:** US 10-year at 4.75-4.80% / Japan 10-year at 2.96% / UK 10-year at 2008 highs / Germany 10-year at 2011 highs
5. **US fiscal sustainability:** Debt at 40 trillion + interest payments of 1.2 trillion per year
6. **AI capital expenditure bubble:** Nvidia with a market cap of 5.4 trillion, profit-taking after Broadcom earnings
- **Under the complex combination of "cooling labor market (ADP 37,000) + service sector inflation (ISM prices at a four-year high) + geopolitical conflicts (Iran - Kuwait) + Waller's dovish stance (waiting for one meeting)", the market is short-term optimistic but highly dependent on data verification. The September 5 Nonfarm Payrolls and September 10 CPI are decisive points — if data supports a pause, the market may continue to rise; if data supports a rate hike, a sharp correction may occur.**
- Any additional shocks (full escalation of Iran-Kuwait conflict / CPI exceeding expectations / strong Nonfarm Payrolls / Japan 10-year breaking 3% again / emerging market crisis / slowdown in AI capital expenditure) could trigger severe adjustments in global financial markets. Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Today, September 4 - Part One
- **Current Major Change: Waller's Dovish Shift Brings Short-Term Risk Appetite Rebound**. The probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 63.2% to 48.4% (no hike 51.6%), U.S. stocks surged (Dow +1.18% / Nasdaq +1.4%), BTC soared above 81K (+5.13%), gold +2%, the dollar weakened (DXY 99.30), Japanese bonds retreated from above 3% (10-year at 2.96%), U.S. bonds fell from 4.818% to 4.74-4.75%. **Short-term market sentiment shifted from "panic" to "optimism"**.
- **But risks have not disappeared, only temporarily suppressed**:
1. **Escalation of Iran-Kuwait conflict** (sudden today!): The conflict expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz; if the U.S. retaliates on a large scale, oil prices could break 100, and global risk assets may pull back
2. **Inflation concerns**: ISM Non-Manufacturing Price Index hit a four-year high + diesel price at 5.783 surpassing wartime peak + oil price above 91; if the September 10 CPI exceeds expectations, Waller may pivot back to rate hikes
3. **Tomorrow (9/5) Nonfarm Payrolls**: If significantly above expectations, rate hike expectations may rise again At 2 AM, people were still rushing in to catch the dip, and by dawn, accounts had lost 40%. This kind of scenario never lacks spectators in the crypto world. $CP peaked right at launch, then immediately plunged. Guess what those chasing now are thinking? Last night at 23:00, the opening price was $0.7296, now it has dropped to $0.0392, a 45% decline, with intraday volatility exceeding 55%. Across the entire network, 871 people were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $830,000—long positions wiped out $500,000, shorts $320,000, and the largest single liquidation was only $18,000. This figure is worth pondering—no whales were crushed; it was all retail traders fighting among themselves. Many only see the headline "AI coin crashes on launch," but the market is actually trading on two levels. The first is narrative cooling. $CP focuses on AI services, but the overall sentiment in the AI sector is currently cold, and patience for pure concept tokens is thin. The initial pump was a liquidity premium, followed by a quick drop because the narrative couldn't hold—this script has played out in several recent AI projects. The second level is more subtle—it reveals the profile of market participants through its liquidation structure. The largest single liquidation was only $18,000, indicating no big money established positions here; the market is full of retail traders betting on a short-term rebound. With this chip structure, prices are easily driven by sentiment, and technical levels are significantly weakened. I couldn't help but catch a small dip myself—not because I think it's the bottom, but because after this level of panic selling, there's often a short-term rebound.Bitcoin suddenly surged to 81,000 in the early morning
The shorts got squeezed again
$BTC Tonight's rally came very fast.
The price broke through 81,000 from below 77,000 USD, and one of the catalysts behind this was Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaling that rates might remain unchanged in September, easing market concerns about tightening policies.
At the same time, global bond yields fell back from their 2026 highs, and risk assets immediately began to rebound. BTC retook 81,000, and crypto-related stocks also surged.
As a result, shorts were forced to cover again, with about $335 million in leveraged positions liquidated in just 4 hours.
This is why I have always thought that the longer the washout near 80,000 lasts, the more interesting it becomes.
After so many days of chip washing, once macro pressure eases a bit, $BTC can immediately pull back.
If 83,000 is reached next, I think the market will soon start discussing 90,000 USD. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $BTC broke through $81,000, crazy surge late at night
Up 5.26% in the evening, directly rising from $77,000 to $81,000, and this is stablecoin
Big brother Maji's long position is worth about $100 million, now a large-scale recovery, breaking news shows big brother Maji closed HYPE long positions, overall floating profit over $4 million
$BTC 24-hour liquidations totaled $203 million, long liquidations $14.44 million, short liquidations $188 million, largest single liquidation $5.26 million, market liquidation status: mainly short liquidations, BTC price volatility today over 5.73%, globally 11,389 people liquidated
Currently, most of the market is bullish on Bitcoin, some even say it will hold above $80,000 and aim for $100,000, the bull market has started
However, I think this surge won't last long, the Fed rate hike probability in September is high, US-Iran conflict escalates, security concerns remain, market demand weakens, now it's just market sentiment driven by high price volatility, once stabilized it will lead to a decline
$BTC my view is this is a bull trap, the rise won't last, support levels aren't as strong as imagined, there is a large supply at the $83K-$86K range, just wait and see $CORE Attention! It needs to be reminded that the amount of validator rewards newly issued this time is beyond the 2.1 billion tokens. That is, the newly issued amount exceeds 2.1 billion tokens, definitely not less than 150 million tokens, probably at least more than 200 million. Previously, the circulating amount on exchanges seemed to be a little over 1.2 billion tokens. Now the circulating volume on exchanges has reached more than 1.48 billion, exceeding by at least 250 million tokens, yet the project team claims to have only burned over 150 million tokens. This means at least about 100 million tokens remain in the market. This is simply outrageous. They keep saying they are building decentralization, but now the chain can issue new tokens? This is unbelievable! Even if they now say they will burn and handle it, such a situation makes it hard to trust the reliability of this chain and the immutability of its decentralized data?
$BTC $ETH Brothers, from this morning's open to noon, I tend to see BTC and ETH oscillating with a slight strength, but I don't recommend chasing the highs directly.
$BTC has now returned above 80,000, once surging near 81,300. The core driver is still the cooling of September rate hike expectations after Waller's speech, along with the decline in the dollar and US Treasury yields, which overall supports risk assets. The Nasdaq also clearly strengthened.
$ETH's structure is also repairing, but the capital flow isn't as good as BTC's: after 12 consecutive days of net inflows into the ETH spot ETF, the latest day saw about $48 million net outflow, indicating there is still some selling pressure around 2,500.
So in the morning session, I see BTC first oscillating to digest the pressure above 80,000, and ETH fluctuating between 2,480 and 2,520; at noon, the focus will be on whether US stock futures, the dollar, and US Treasury yields continue to cooperate.
If BTC holds above 80,000, continue to watch 81,300–82,000; if ETH holds above 2,480, continue to watch near 2,518. But the biggest variable today is still the non-farm payrolls; before the data comes out, it's easier to have back-and-forth swings, so don't take the morning's rise as a single-sided trend for the whole day.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. SPDR added 9.98 tons in a single day on September 2, accumulating nearly 50 tons since early August. This is not retail investors itching to buy; institutions are treating gold as a base position and accumulating.
But before the non-farm payrolls come out tonight at 20:30, I see this nearly 10-ton increase as "buying on expectations before the data," not mindless chasing of the rally. On the options side, the short-term implied volatility is inverted, indicating that funds are pricing in the non-farm payrolls in advance, fearing hot data and another dollar spike.
The mid-term logic remains intact—central bank gold purchases, U.S. Treasury credit discount, and marginal decline in real interest rates, all three support gold. $XAU is not comfortably buyable above 4400 in the short term; if non-farm payrolls hit hard, 4320-4350 is the level to watch for support.
My approach: wait until after 20:30 to see if it’s a false breakout or a real pullback; only act when the line is reached. Don’t use mid-term positions to gamble on half-hour volatility.
$BTC $ETH market trends I’ve mentioned before; for Bitcoin, watch the 79000 level!
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Taking a side here, not just reporting. A week ago hike odds were 68-72%. Today the market is pricing a 25bp cut at September's FOMC with close to 90% certainty. That's not a small drift that's a full reversal, and Waller's rate-pause comments today were the final push. BTC ripped 5.4% to $81,491, SOL +5.5%, ETH still fighting right at the $2,500 line after rejecting it twice. The next real test is today's NFP, still ahead as I write this. If it confirms the weak labor trend we've seen all week,The U.S. has started taking action to bring crypto companies back home.
Today, the official trending topic is "SEC's new regulations aim to attract crypto companies back to the U.S.", with a straightforward approach: provide clear rules and certainty to persuade companies that went abroad to return.
Coincidentally, on the same day, Standard Chartered announced that it will open BTC and ETH spot trading to institutions on its forex trading platform in Dubai — a leading global bank paving the way in the Middle East because regulations have already been implemented there.
Over the years, crypto companies have been moving abroad due to regulatory ambiguity: unclear rules led to business and tax relocations. Now the U.S. wants to use new regulations as a flagship to attract businesses back, but whether it can truly bring them back depends on the implementation details and enforcement strength.
Clear regulations themselves are the best competitive advantage, do you believe it?
$BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 1. Market Panorama Overview Overnight, the global crypto market experienced a violent rebound, with Bitcoin surging over 5% in a single day, reclaiming the $80,000 integer level in one go, reaching a high of around $81,500. Major coins broadly rallied. The core catalyst came from dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller: he stated that recent data shows signs of inflation slowing, and if subsequent data continues this trend, it would support keeping rates unchanged in September. The probability of a rate hike in September quickly dropped from 63% to 52%. The US Dollar Index fell sharply by over 0.8% overnight, marking the largest single-day drop in two months. The 10-year US Treasury yield also declined in tandem, leading to a comprehensive valuation recovery in risk assets, with cryptocurrencies leading as high-beta assets. It is important to note that the US August ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 55.4, a six-month high, with the prices paid index soaring to 72.6 (a four-year high), indicating renewed inflationary pressure in the service sector. Although the data itself is hawkish, the market prioritized trading on the Fed officials' dovish signals. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the August Nonfarm Payroll report will be released, serving as the final basis for the September FOMC policy decision. The current rebound has already priced in some expectations of policy shifts, and the data trend will directly determine the sustainability of the market movement. Core market characteristics: 1. Leaders lead the rally with volume and price rising together: BTC and BNB strongly lead the mainstream sector, ETH and SOL also significantly recover, with overall market trading volume notably expanding and capital flowing back into top core assets. 2. Altcoins show extreme divergence: DeFi tokens like APR surged over 30% in a single day, becoming sector highlights; BEAT and others with no fundamental basis...The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen back to 50%, marking a critical period of market positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 49.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 50.2%, nearly evenly split; for October, the probability of holding rates steady is 35.5%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike is 50.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point hike is 14.5%. There are about 13 days left until the next FOMC meeting. The core change in this data is that the probability of a September rate hike has fallen back to around 50%, indicating that the market's previously hawkish pricing is loosening. The CME FedWatch infers the market's implied probabilities for the interest rate path from federal funds futures prices and is a commonly used barometer for monetary policy expectations; its value changes often lead actual asset price repricing. Structurally, the probabilities of holding steady or hiking 25 basis points in September are almost evenly split, indicating a highly balanced market where any new inflation or employment data could break this equilibrium and trigger a rapid shift in rate expectations. October's data further shows that even if there is no hike in September, the market still sees over a 50% chance of a 25 basis point hike in October, with a 14.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike, indicating the market does not believe the tightening cycle has ended; the main divergence lies in the pace and timing. The importance of this change lies in the fact that rate hike expectations directly affect the dollar liquidity environment and risk asset valuations: the fall in September hike probability means that in the short term, liquidity 【Morning Brief】 Overnight BTC, gold, and the three major US stock indices all strengthened simultaneously, driven by easing rate hike expectations and a retreating dollar, with an overall bias toward offense rather than safe haven; currently, all three are moving in sync, not diverging. 【What happened overnight】 ① Fed Governor Waller stated: if inflation continues to cool, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September, with September rate hike pricing retreating from hawkish to nearly a 50/50 chance. ② Transmission path: short-term interest rates fall, dollar weakens, risk appetite rises. ③ Positive for BTC, gold, and US stocks. 【What to watch today】 ① 8:30 AM ET / 8:30 PM Beijing: US August nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings. Stronger-than-expected employment and wages → resurgence of rate hike expectations, stronger dollar, bearish for BTC, gold, and US stocks; significantly weaker-than-expected → increased bets on pause, bullish for all three. Overheated wages, even with average employment, are more bearish for gold and US stocks. ② No important Fed officials' speeches before US market open. 【Summary of the three assets' bullish/bearish outlook】 BTC: Bullish — dominated by rate path trading, still following liquidity easing after reclaiming key levels. Gold: Bullish — dollar and real rate pressure eased temporarily, short-term recovery, but nonfarm payrolls are the confirmation. US stocks: Bullish — rate hike panic cooling, tech stocks leading gains, positions should guard against nonfarm payrolls causing a market shift tonight.In 2026, Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high is not a fantasy but a high-probability event.
Despite a pullback of over 50% from the October peak, multiple fundamental logics remain unchanged. Institutional funds show remarkable resilience: BlackRock still recommends allocating 1%-2% to Bitcoin, Fidelity clients bought $134 million within two days, and Citi has also entered the custody business. On the supply and demand side, after the halving, daily new production is only about 900 coins, while the daily demand from ETFs reaches 2,700 coins, resulting in a persistent structural supply shortage.
History does not simply repeat itself, but the halving cycle has never been absent—after the previous three halvings, bull market peaks occurred within 12-18 months, and the current pullback is much smaller than the past 80% declines. Meanwhile, the US CLARITY Act has passed the House of Representatives, shifting regulation from ambiguity to clarity; expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year are rising, and macroeconomic pressures are easing.
When institutions, cycles, and policies resonate, Bitcoin breaking through $130,000 and setting a new all-time high may just be a matter of time. Rebound or a bull trap? Don't let Robinhood and ARB confuse you; CPI is the "ultimate judge"
Brothers, the market just calmed down for two days, but restless hearts are stirring again. Robinhood's on-chain trading volume suddenly surged, and ARB is being hyped again due to income growth. It looks lively, but don't rush to get excited—this seems more like existing funds "self-directing" a show during the data blackout period.
Robinhood, as a "retail investor gathering place," often sees on-chain volume spikes that mean short-term hot money is looking for an exit, not institutional bullish flags. Although ARB's income has increased, the paradox of "burning money to gain TVL" in the L2 sector remains unresolved. Relying on fee sharing to tell a story is especially fragile during a liquidity tightening cycle. These hotspots likely won't survive the next macro storm.
The real eye of the storm is always the CPI. Recent data has dipped, but core service inflation is like chewing gum stuck to your shoe, and the Fed's tone is harder than stone. For the crypto world, stable CPI is a "lifeline soup" that can stabilize risk appetite; but if it rebounds by 0.1%, the market immediately trades a "rate hike counterattack," the dollar jumps, and BTC takes the hardest hit, with altcoins bleeding heavily.
So, the current on-chain restlessness and L2 narratives are just "smokescreens" before data release. Smart money is holding its breath, not betting on direction. Remember: all volume before CPI is questionable; wait for the boot to drop before talking bull or bear. Stay steady, don't be cannon fodder.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 On the technical charts of the crypto market, a long-watched signal is quietly taking shape: BTC's 50-day moving average is approaching the 200-day moving average, and if it crosses above, it will form the so-called "golden cross." Meanwhile, USDT's market share is simultaneously weakening, which is often interpreted as some funds withdrawing from stablecoins to seek opportunities in crypto assets again. The resonance between technicals and capital flow makes short-term sentiment less dull. The temperature of the macro narrative is also rising. Arthur Hayes mentioned on social platforms that if Japan's GPIF adjusts its asset structure, it could trigger a new round of liquidity expansion. But it is important to soberly recognize that "money printing" remains speculative at this stage; the real factors dominating BTC's fate are interest rate paths, the strength of the dollar, and changes in global financing costs. Institutional moves are more concrete. Standard Chartered Bank has extended spot BTC and ETH trading services from the UK to the UAE, making the channel for traditional capital to enter the crypto world more compliant and convenient. Analyst Willy Woo offers a new perspective: with deeper participation from ETFs and institutional funds, BTC may be shifting from a four-year cycle to a six-to-eight-year cycle, with price drivers no longer solely dependent on halving events; the bull market pattern may be lengthened rather than disappearing. This information leans toward medium- to long-term improvement, but short-term breakthroughs are still lacking momentum. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may also be a brief pulse of risk appetite. Only when spot and ETF funds continue net inflows and BTC reestablishes itself between 80,000 and 83,30 Bitcoin climbed back above $77,000 in September, but what truly needs close attention is not this price, but the liquidity structure behind it. August's market was quite impressive, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing a net inflow of as much as $3.52 billion in a single month, Bitcoin rising about 25%, and market sentiment heating up at one point. Entering September, the trend quietly shifted—ETF funds turned to net outflows, oil prices climbed, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and expectations for a Fed rate hike in September intensified. These changes collectively point to one equation: liquidity. When institutional demand is abundant, the crypto market can absorb large sell orders; but when ETF inflows slow and macro conditions tighten simultaneously, every failed rally can be amplified, and the foundation for rebounds thins accordingly. Ethereum holds above $2,400, but what it needs is independent and sustained demand, not just following Bitcoin's rhythm. The relative strength of Solana, XRP, and BNB is an important clue to judge whether funds are truly rotating into large-cap altcoins. I continuously monitor several indicators: ETF fund flows, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, Fed expectations, and the comparison between spot trading volume and derivatives leverage. The altcoin market is becoming more selective; SUI and APT have shown individual strength, while AVAX and NEAR remain on the watchlist for Layer 1 rotation. In DeFi, AAVE, UNI, and CRV reflect whether traders are willing to take on real on-chain risk; on the infrastructure side, LINK and ONDO continue to develop alongside the RWA narrative, RWADon't just focus on how much the coin price has risen.
To judge which stage the bull market is in, you can't just look at the red and green candlesticks; you have to dig into the capital data to see the real institutional behavior.
The spot ETF ledger on September 2nd Eastern Time is worth pondering; essentially, it plays out as a scenario where Bitcoin is flowing back while altcoins cut off first.
Money is not evenly distributed across the entire crypto sector; institutional funds are actively contracting towards BTC, while funds on the altcoin side have started to withdraw first.
Decrypt cross-referenced data from SoSoValue and Farside Investors on September 3rd Eastern Time:
September 2nd Eastern Time:
The overall net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF was about $101.15 million.
BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted $115.45 million; Grayscale's GBTC continued to have a net outflow of $56.21 million, with the old trust continuously being replaced by funds.
On the previous day, September 1st, the Bitcoin ETF just saw a net outflow of $236.5 million, the largest single-day escape since the end of July, causing a moment of market panic.
But on the same day, the altcoin camp's trend completely reversed:
Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $48.08 million, directly ending a 12-day streak of net inflows.
XRP ETF outflow was about $7.2 million, breaking an 11-day inflow streak.
Solana ETF outflow was about $6.13 million.
It's not that institutions are collectively exiting across the board, but that institutional positions are actively narrowing.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC ISM Services PMI Exceeds Expectations, Nonfarm Payrolls to Become a Key Fed Decision Point
The US August ISM Services PMI was released at 55.4, higher than the market expectation of 54.3, up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, marking the highest level since April. The index stands well above the 50 expansion-contraction line, indicating that the US service sector remains in expansion mode, with economic momentum showing a clear recovery compared to June and July. This data weakens the market's expectation that the Fed will pivot policy solely based on weakening employment.
Reviewing data since April, the ISM Services PMI recorded 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively. The August reading breaks the previous long-term narrow fluctuation around 54. Although this diffusion index cannot be directly equated with actual output growth, the rising indicator reflects that service sector business activity still maintains strong resilience.
However, employment data presents conflicting signals. ADP private employment data shows that private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the lowest since January and significantly below expectations. On one hand, the service sector is recovering; on the other, private employment data is clearly cooling. This divergence between the two data sets creates considerable uncertainty for Fed policy judgment.
With interest rates currently held at 3.75%, the US market faces a complex situation of resilient economic growth alongside a gradually cooling labor market. Amid this data divergence, the balance of the September rate decision will largely tilt toward the nonfarm payroll report to be released this Friday, with subsequent inflation data also being crucial.
For the crypto market, a stronger PMI raises the potential for rate hikes, suppressing the rebound space for risk assets. Meanwhile, weaker ADP employment data leaves room for policy easing expectations. The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish logic will further amplify market volatility. Before the nonfarm payrolls release, it will be difficult for the market to establish a clear one-sided trend. Close attention should be paid to the nonfarm data results to assess the subsequent macroeconomic and market direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Those who still dare to stubbornly hold short positions now either have outdated information or simply don't understand what happened last night.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller personally said, "Inflation is finally showing signs of slowing down," and the probability of a rate hike in September was directly cut from 63% to 52%. That slap was loud enough, right?
$BTC pulled back to 81000 with a big bullish candle, marking the highest close since May 14. You call this a bull trap?
Behind the number 81000 is nine consecutive days of net ETF inflows, a single week institutional buying of $1.92 billion—the strongest this year—and a breakthrough built on $3 billion of real money.
The crypto market and US stocks both rallied; Strategy and Coinbase shares rose 15%, Tesla rose over 5%. Tell me, was this rally driven by retail investors?
$ETH and $SOL rose 4.7% and 5.9% respectively, altcoins collectively surged, and capital is broadly dispersing. If this isn't a structural recovery, then what is?
The US dollar index fell below the 99 mark, the probability of a yen rate hike soared to 98%, global liquidity is being repriced, and money is flowing from the dollar into hard assets.
Crude oil remains sideways at a high of $97, gold surged to 4500, and Bitcoin is strengthening in sync with gold. This is a classic "currency depreciation trade."
Don't forget the heavy hammer—on September 15, the Senate will vote on the cryptocurrency regulatory bill, and the White House has publicly expressed support. The market is front-running the expectation of "policy clarity."
Some might say there's resistance at 86000 above 81000, and if it can't break through, it will fall back. But I tell you, this time the foundation is spot buying, not a virtual rally built on leverage. The perpetual contract rate is as low as 0.007%, so there is no condition for overheating or a stampede.
Of course, tonight's nonfarm payroll data is the biggest variable. The small nonfarm already surprised on the downside with only 38,000 new jobs. If the nonfarm is also weak, a September rate hike is basically off the table. But don't celebrate too early; Waller himself said—if the data is too hot, he will flip and support a rate hike.
That's all I have to say. Those bearish can keep holding their shorts. As for me, looking at the 81500 price level, $3 billion ETF inflows, and the Senate's September 15 voting schedule, I really can't find a reason to be pessimistic with you.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Dovish remarks triggered a short-term rebound, but risks of a pullback remain before the non-farm payrolls release
BTC climbed above 82000, ETH recovered to around 2530, and the market saw a rapid surge. This round of gains was mainly driven by news. Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered dovish comments, suggesting that if inflation continues to decline, current interest rates should be maintained. Expectations for a September rate hike cooled down, briefly boosting market risk appetite. Coupled with concentrated short liquidations, nearly $86 million in short positions were cleared, and short-term buying pushed prices higher.
The typical characteristic of news-driven rallies is their rapid rise and equally swift fade. The non-farm payroll data this Friday is a key indicator before the FOMC meeting and will directly influence the Fed's subsequent policy direction. The market expects an increase of 58,000 jobs. If employment data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will rise again, putting pressure on risk assets; if employment data weakens significantly, the market will enter recession trading, which is also unfavorable for the crypto market. Before this critical data is released, it is difficult for the market to establish a clear one-sided trend.
Key resistance levels have appeared on the chart. $BTC faces core resistance between 82000 and 82500. When the price reaches this zone, any sign of stagnation could easily exhaust rebound momentum. Important support lies at 77000. If trading volume continues to shrink during the rebound, the probability of a subsequent pullback will increase significantly.
$ETH faces strong selling pressure between 2430 and 2450. Whale addresses continue transferring tokens to exchanges, and short-term ETF inflows are limited, making it difficult to absorb this selling pressure. This range will form a clear resistance.
Overall, this rally should be defined as an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. The gains driven by news are not solidly grounded, and macro uncertainties remain high. Do not be fooled by short-term bullish candles; focus on the effectiveness of breaking resistance above and wait for clear signs of exhaustion. With the non-farm payroll data approaching, market volatility will further increase. Heavy positions are not advisable, and one must remain vigilant against the risk of a pullback after a spike.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $SNOW is really strong this time, shooting up directly from around $300 to $376.
On September 3rd, the tokenized Snowflake (SNOW) once reached around $376, with a 24-hour increase of over 22% and a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.09 million.
But there is a particularly noteworthy point here.
It corresponds to the tokenized asset of the US stock Snowflake, while the US stock Snowflake closed at only $305.84 on September 2nd.
In other words, the current token price is clearly higher than the underlying US stock.
Why is there such a large price difference?
The core reason lies in the fact that the trading hours, liquidity, and market structure of tokenized assets are not exactly the same as traditional US stocks.
So seeing SNOW suddenly surge 22% cannot be simply understood as Snowflake stock rising 22% today.
If we look at the US stock itself, Snowflake's previous 52-week high was about $341.95, while now the token price has already surpassed this level.
At this point, what needs the most attention is not whether it can continue to rise, but:
Whether this premium can be maintained.
If the traditional US stock quickly catches up after reopening, it indicates the market is repricing.
If the US stock price does not synchronize but the token price continues to stay high, then one should be cautious of price deviations caused by liquidity. Short positions were precisely targeted, this market really makes no sense
Just took a quick look at the market, BTC directly surged above 82,000, yesterday it was still hovering around 77,000, rising more than 6 points in one day. Short positions were smashed, losing nearly 9 points.
Ultimately, it's because the ADP data was too poor. 38,000, lower than the expected 47,000, the slowest job growth since January. Seeing such weak employment, the market's rate hike probability dropped directly from over 60% to about 48%, making maintaining the current rate a high-probability event again. Waller made a somewhat dovish comment, combined with market expectations of weak nonfarm payroll data tonight, BTC directly staged a big rally ahead of time, breaking through $81,000.
But honestly, this rally feels a bit hollow. Coinbase premium is still negative, indicating that spot buying from US institutions hasn't truly returned. More so, shorts in the futures market are being forced to cover, with over $300 million in short positions liquidated within four hours, and the short covering buying pushed the price up. Without spot market support, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable.
Now all eyes are on tonight's nonfarm payrolls, expected around 53,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If the data is within expectations, the bullish effect will likely be fully priced in, leading to a spike followed by a pullback; if the data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations could instantly return. Wintermute's judgment is quite reliable—BTC will likely fluctuate between 75,000 and 82,000 before the FOMC.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Brothers, are you still wondering why FIL can't rally? Just take a look at the data and everything becomes clear — the long-short ratio is 9.29, with 1.44 million FIL borrowed for longs and 180,000 FIL borrowed for shorts. For every 1 short, there are 9 longs; the vehicle is pulling 9 carriages behind it, so if it runs fast, that would be a miracle. 📊 What does a truly “healthy market” look like? In a healthy futures market, the long-short ratio should be between 1 and 3 times. What does 9 times mean? It means longs are severely crowded, and once the price pulls back, these leveraged longs will become fuel for a stampede. Compare the data: Binance account long-short ratio is 1.32, OKX is 1.91. Whales have a long-short ratio of 2.33. Retail investors are crazily going long, while whales are calmly positioning. Does this picture look familiar? 🎯 When can we expect a “steady advance”? First, wait for retail long positions to clear out. The 1.44 million FIL leveraged longs need to drop to below 500,000. The price needs a pullback to clean out these positions — just like the drop from 0.86 to 0.65 on August 22. Second, wait for the long-short ratio to return below 3 times. From 9.29 down to below 3, only then can the market be considered normalized. During this process, the price may retest 0.76-0.78 or even 0.74. Third, wait for the October halving to truly take effect. The first halving is expected to cut daily production in half, dropping the annual inflation rate from 18% to about 7%. This is the hard logic. But the current price mixes “halving expectations” with “crowded longs.” 💡 What to do? For those with positions I have been closely following unisat's updates. These days, I went back to review FIP-101 to 103 in sequence and found that they are not three unrelated proposals, but rather a continuous progression along the same line at a steady pace. FIP-101 has already been implemented. It was officially activated on August 6, allowing ordinary people to stake FB for index mining, so indexing no longer relies solely on the team's own nodes.
This step solves the problem of who maintains the on-chain data and who gets the rewards. It fully enhances the value of FB's use cases and gives ordinary users a greater sense of participation.
FIP-102 was implemented just recently: around September 8 or 9, at block 2.1 million, the mining reward halved for the first time from 25 to 12.5, which was then split: 6.25 remains in Fractal, and the other 6.25 is reserved for the Bitcoin mainnet. The total supply remains unchanged; only the issuance path has changed. This step solves the issue that FB will no longer only circulate within Fractal but will also appear natively on the mainnet, increasing FB's mainnet use cases since most of the old money is on the mainnet.
FIP-103's detailed rules have not been fully disclosed yet. The official stance is clear: 102 manages "this budget allocation to the mainnet," while 103 manages "how to distribute it to people and how it enters circulation." They mentioned that mainnet distribution will be around Q1 next year. So for now, the halving controls the supply, and how the mainnet distributes it will wait for 103.
Overall, unisat is setting up a grand strategy. Looking forward to it!After the CORE on-chain deposit and withdrawal are connected, will the coin price skyrocket wildly?
The deposit and withdrawal connection on exchanges is considered by many as the "takeoff switch."
But one thing must be clear: restoring deposits and withdrawals only reopens the token transfer channel; it itself will not directly cause a wild surge, nor the real decisive battle between bulls and bears.
✅ The bullish logic (expecting a price rise)
1. Negative factors are fully resolved: the hard fork is completed, 150 million excess CORE has been burned, and restoring deposits and withdrawals means exchange-level risks are cleared, all looming threats are settled.
2. Previously, deposits were closed, so off-exchange bottom-fishing funds had money but couldn’t buy in; once the channel opens, the accumulated cautious funds outside can enter to buy, driving a sentiment rebound.
3. Tens of millions of staked tokens have been locked on-chain for a long time; with the event settled, community confidence is restored, and some stakers choose to continue locking without selling, limiting selling pressure.
⚠️ Realistic suppressions that cannot be ignored, making a direct wild surge difficult
1. Buying on expectations and selling on facts is the biggest risk. The burn, hard fork, and deposit/withdrawal restoration have already been widely anticipated in the community and external livestreams. Many bottom-fishing funds have already positioned early; the official channel opening is precisely their window to take profits and exit. This easily leads to a "good news rally followed by a pullback."
2. Selling pressure from unstaking is officially released.
Previously, unlocked staked CORE couldn’t be transferred to exchanges, physically isolating selling pressure. After deposit and withdrawal are connected, stakers who still have doubts after the bug incident can transfer coins to exchanges to sell. Not everyone will hold with faith; many just aim to break even and exit.
3. Historical trapped positions are massive. Large amounts of trapped tokens pile up above 0.01; whenever the price rebounds upward, continuous selling to break even will emerge.
4. Market environment constraints. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll data; BTC’s direction will directly influence small coins. Even if all CORE’s positive factors are realized, if BTC weakens, CORE will struggle to have an independent wild one-sided rally.
5. Liquidity shortcomings. CORE’s overall liquidity is not abundant; after deposit and withdrawal open, two-way spikes will be very fierce, capable of both impulsive upward surges and instant dumps.
📊 Three realistic scenario simulations
1. Scenario ①: Sentiment impulse rebound (higher probability)
Deposit and withdrawal open, off-exchange funds enter, causing a short-term rebound, but not a wild continuous surge; after the rebound, selling pressure to break even causes renewed volatility.
2. Scenario ②: Rally then pullback, buy expectations sell facts
News is realized, short-term rally, positioned funds take profits concentratedly, combined with some staked tokens sold, resulting in a high open and low close.
3. Scenario ③: Intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, spikes back and forth
Bottom-fishing funds and unstaking sell orders are evenly matched, causing back-and-forth shakeouts and volatility, continuing to wait for the full incident report and BTC market to give a new direction.
Summary: Deposit and withdrawal connection ≠ one-click takeoff.
It only connects on-chain staked tokens with the secondary market, exposing the previously hidden real supply and demand. Sentiment recovery can be expected, but don’t fantasize about a direct mindless wild surge.