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After Robinhood's on-chain volume surged, the ARB revenue narrative suddenly heated up, but this is where emotions are most easily misled.
On-chain revenue looks very attractive, and the activity on Robinhood Chain indeed brings new imagination to the Arbitrum ecosystem. The problem is, whose pockets is the revenue actually going into, how much returns to the DAO, and how much relates to ARB holders—these layers should not be mixed together in discussion.
The crypto community loves to directly translate “ecosystem making money” into “token should rise,” but often there are protocol revenue shares, governance rules, fee ownership, and market expectations in between.
What I think is truly worth watching about ARB this time is whether the L2 tech stack can make money by others launching chains. If it can, its business model will upgrade from “pulling users itself” to “renting out the financial infrastructure.”
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 LIT Continues Strong Momentum with Over 16% Gain in 24 Hours, Market Cap Surpasses $1.1 Billion
On September 4th, according to HTX market data, LIT rose more than 16% in 24 hours, priced at $4.41, with a market cap exceeding $1.1 billion. Over the past 30 days, it has gained 113.9%, continuing its multi-day upward trend.
This round of LIT's rise is not a single-day spike but a sustained increase over several days. The 24-hour gain exceeds 16%, currently priced at $4.41, and the market cap has officially crossed the $1.1 billion threshold. This scale means it has moved beyond being a micro-cap coin and entered the small to mid-cap altcoin range. More notably, its 30-day gain of 113.9% shows it has more than doubled in nearly one and a half months, indicating sustained buying interest rather than one-off speculation. From a market mechanism perspective, small-cap tokens often attract momentum funds and quantitative strategies after breaking key market cap thresholds, creating positive feedback. However, this also means there is significant profit-taking potential, and once momentum fades, the pullback could be equally severe. For the altcoin market, the continuous strength of certain small to mid-cap coins usually reflects some on-exchange funds rotating from mainstream coins to high-volatility assets. The persistence of such rotation can serve as a reference signal for observing market risk appetite. However, it is important to note that the performance of a single token heavily depends on its own capital structure and community enthusiasm, and its correlation with overall liquidity is not stable.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports split AI trading into two types
Broadcom proves that the demand for underlying computing power and custom chips still exists, while Snowflake proves whether enterprises are willing to continue paying for data and AI software. One sells shovels, the other sells construction site management systems. Previously, the market got excited just by seeing the two letters AI, but now it asks in detail: can orders be realized, can gross margins be maintained, will customers continue to use it
I think the harshest point in the second half of AI is that revenue growth no longer automatically equals stock price rewards
Hardware companies fear customer concentration, software companies fear usage discontinuity. The companies that can truly survive this round of validation are not the ones best at talking about AI, but those best at turning AI into invoices
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 This non-farm payroll is like the last exam before the FOMC.
ADP has already poured cold water, showing a slowdown in private sector job growth, and initial claims haven't provided a particularly strong rebuttal either. Now the market isn't focused on a single employment figure, but on whether it will break through Wash's logic of "inflation hasn't been beaten yet, policy can't be loosened early."
BTC fears this kind of macro node the most. Not because it doesn't understand employment, but because traders will split the same data into two stories: weak employment bets on rate cuts; sticky wages bet on prolonged high interest rates. Both narratives can be told, making the market prone to volatility.
I think the real key this time is whether the market can still believe in the phrase "soft landing" after the data is released.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 🔥 $ETH got hit by macro pressure last night, but bounced back toward $2,490–$2,510 as softer jobs data and Powell’s comments eased rate concerns.
ETF flows remain mixed, showing rotation rather than broad accumulation.
Key levels:
🟢 $2,536 → first resistance
🟡 $2,459 → key support
🔴 Below $2,459 → $2,406/$2,355
For now, ETH is stuck around $2,450–$2,510. Don’t overreact to the bounce. CPI and the September FOMC remain the next major catalysts. 👀
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops While most traders focus on candlesticks and MACD, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has set his sights on an obscure currency pair: Euro to Japanese Yen (EURJPY). He calls it the “North Star” for gauging fiat liquidity. Currently, EURJPY is around 185, and Hayes expects it could fall to 140 or even lower by next June. This is not ordinary exchange rate fluctuation but a transmission chain leading to the crypto market: a decline in EURJPY means a stronger yen, with Japanese and Asian funds withdrawing from European assets, hitting French banks first. As participants holding about 20% of the US repo market, if French banks shrink financing, it will push up US Treasury financing costs, forcing hedge funds to deleverage, ultimately pressuring the New York Fed to expand repo operations, potentially causing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to grow by nearly $10 billion per month. This is what Hayes calls “tightening first, then easing” — a falling exchange rate is a painful signal and a precursor to a liquidity flood. On September 9, the expanded US Treasury repo will officially launch, increasing single transaction size from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10- to 30-year Treasuries, running through November 4. Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at possibly using the Treasury’s $935 billion general account at the Fed. Meanwhile, BTC is fluctuating near $77,000, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 62, still in the greed zone; ETF funds turned positive again after early September volatility. Hayes’ allocation strategy is: with Bitcoin asETH Latest Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish
⚠️ This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 4 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US tech stocks rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.🔥 $BTC pumped hard, then pulled back from $81.38K. Don’t FOMO here.
BTC is around $80.7K after a sharp breakout, but volume surged near the highs while price stalled — a sign of profit-taking and late buyers getting trapped.
Key levels:
🟢 $81.0K–$81.38K → breakout zone
🟡 $80.4K → short-term support
🔴 $79.4K → key trend support
Holding $79.4K keeps the structure constructive. Losing it with volume could open $78.8K–$78.3K.
Trend intact, but chasing now carries risk.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #Waller Cuts Hawkish Rate Hike Expectations in Half #BTC Violently Breaks 82,000
**Strong Rebound — Shorts Grounded, Macro Expectation Gap Triggers 24-Hour Short Squeeze Rally.**
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**2️⃣ Core Logic Chain**
I judge today's market engine with one word: dovish.
What was the market originally betting on? A rate hike in September. CME FedWatch data showed that before Waller's speech, the probability of a 25bp hike in September surged from 37% a week ago to 62%-66%, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, BTC was repeatedly pressured between 77,000 and 78,000, ETFs saw net withdrawals exceeding $1.5 billion for seven consecutive days, and market sentiment was close to panic.
Then Federal Reserve Governor Waller said: if August inflation data shows cooling, he "leans toward supporting" holding rates steady. In one sentence, the rate hike probability was cut from 66% to around 50%. Coupled with initial jobless claims weakening more than expected that day, cracks appeared in the labor market — the market instantly realized: all previous rate hike bets were wrong.
Expectations were forcibly rewritten: from "definite rate hike in September" to "possibly no change in September." U.S. Treasury yields plunged, U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC all rose simultaneously. BTC broke through 80,000 from 77,000, reaching a high of 82,000. $450 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $366 million from short liquidations — shorts were collectively executed. This is not a fundamentals-driven bull market; this is a textbook short squeeze caused by expectation gaps.
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**3️⃣ Mainstream Coin Stratification**
**BTC:** Absolute leader, up 6% intraday breaking 82,000, about 25% gain in August marking the strongest single month since November 2024. ETF net outflows of $1.5 billion over 7 days turned into a single-day net inflow of $115 million on Tuesday, signaling a potential turning point but not yet confirmed. On-chain data shows wallets holding 100-1000 BTC accumulating at the fastest pace since April by the end of August. Support at 78,000, resistance at 85,000. Can buy but don't chase above 82,000.
**ETH:** Followed with a 5% rise to 2494-2518 but clearly a supporting role — ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $53 million on Wednesday, with ETHA alone withdrawing $44.85 million. However, Abraxas Capital aggressively increased holdings by 16,554 ETH (~$41 million) within 12 hours, whales are bottom fishing. ETH/BTC ratio remains weak. For now, treat as a supporting player; don't expect independent strength.
**SOL:** Up 5.73% to around 105, elasticity moves in sync with BTC but with greater volatility. On-chain activity is average, mostly following BTC's beta rebound. Short-term elasticity is okay, but it also falls hardest on pullbacks. If you want to play elasticity, participate with a small position, avoid heavy exposure.
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**4️⃣ Sector Quick Review**
**Strong:** GameFi sector up 8.87% in 24h, AKE single token surged 83% — oversold rebound plus thematic speculation, not a main theme; XRP leads mainstream coins up 3%, Ripple case funds replenishing payment narrative; crypto concept stocks collectively surged (Circle +13%, Strategy +12%, Coinbase +9%), U.S. stock funds show clear risk appetite recovery for crypto sector.
**Weak:** Meme sector fell 3.18% the previous day and only slightly recovered today, PUMP down 8.4%, TRUMP down 6.4% — speculative funds hurt by high volatility themes are reluctant to return; ETH ETF funds still outflowing, no incremental capital buying ETH ecosystem narrative.
Capital intention judgment: shifting from overall wait-and-see and risk aversion to attacking mainstream BTC, siphon effect obvious — money flows into BTC first, altcoins haven't gotten any soup yet. Style is "hold mainstream for risk aversion + quick rotation," not full-scale attack.
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**5️⃣ Liquidations and Capital Flow**
$450 million liquidated across the network in 24h, over 96,000 people liquidated. Shorts liquidated $366 million, longs only $87.78 million — shorts were ground into the dirt. Network long-short ratio 48:52, short positions still slightly dominant, indicating short squeeze still has fuel but also means any pullback stampede could be fierce. Funding rates all turned positive but mild (Binance +0.0099%, Bybit +0.01%), far from overheating. Whale side: mid-to-large wallets accumulating at fastest pace since April, Abraxas aggressively increasing ETH holdings — big money voting with their feet.
Sentiment judgment: slightly greedy but not extreme. Funding rates not hot means chasing longs hasn't reached madness, but 6% single-day gain needs digestion.
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**6️⃣ Tomorrow's Trading Tips**
① **Position Direction:** Mainly hold, add slightly on pullbacks to support, strictly no chasing above 82,000.
② **Leverage Advice:** Use low leverage, short squeeze rallies are easiest to be reversed at the end.
③ **Key Price Levels:** BTC support 78,000-79,000 / resistance 85,000; ETH support 2370 / resistance 2600; SOL support 95 / resistance 120.
④ **Key Events:** Friday U.S. August nonfarm payrolls — the most critical report before September FOMC. Strong employment means rate hike expectations heat up again; weak employment confirms dovish narrative. Also watch mid-September CPI and SUI/HYPE token unlocks.
⑤ **Core Risk:** Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly strong → rate hike probability back above 60% → this short squeeze rally instantly reverses, longs become cannon fodder.
⑥ **Closing Quote:** Waller's one sentence nailed shorts to the wall, but Friday's nonfarm is judgment day — don't mistake short squeeze for a trend, nor rebound for reversal.
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⚠️ *This content is for market information and observation only, not investment or trading advice. Data updated: September 4, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8). Sources: CoinGlass, Binance, OKX, CoinMarketCap, Gate, PANews, CLSA, etc.*⚠️$BTC's wild 24% surge is just the appetizer? The real big shock tonight might not be a rise!
$BTC has recently rebounded strongly, and the market is starting to revisit the "digital gold" narrative. On Thursday, BTC once broke through $80,000, with risk asset sentiment clearly warming up. (Barron’s)
But I actually think the biggest risk now is not how much BTC can still rise, but whether liquidity might suddenly turn hostile.
The macro narrative of gold and BTC is becoming increasingly similar; debt, rate cut expectations, and demand for safe-haven funds all reinforce this logic. However, the closer we get to previous highs, the more we cannot ignore the "ambush" of macro data.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first test. The market currently expects US August nonfarm payrolls to increase by only about 55,000, while July unexpectedly decreased by 23,000. (Investor’s Business Daily)
So chasing the rally at this point, in my view, has mediocre cost-effectiveness; waiting for a pullback confirmation feels more comfortable.
More interestingly, funds are not flooding into altcoins across the board but are searching for targets with real fundamental support:
🔹 $ARB: Revenue logic begins to materialize
Activity and trading volume on Robinhood Chain are rising, and the market is starting to reprice Arbitrum's ecosystem value. But with the short-term gains being too large and unlocking expectations, chasing highs still requires caution.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The interesting part isn’t which one is moving fastest. It’s what is actually supporting the move. $UNI is the cleanest fundamental setup right now. Uniswap activity has surged, with daily swap count reportedly passing 7M while volume pushed above $1B. But the key question is whether that activity translates into sustainable value for UNI. $CP is the opposite: the catalyst is obvious. Cluster Protocol has just gone through a wave of major exchange listings, including OKX spot and perpetuals, $BTC BTC, $80,966, up 5%. It surged overnight from $76,310 to $82,278, with the $80,000 milestone right underfoot.
The catalyst is strong: Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, saying he supports no rate hike in September if inflation continues to cool. The previous probability of a rate hike was 62%, now completely reversed. The dollar plunged, US Treasury yields declined, and funds flooded into risk assets. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, the largest since October 2025. CZ called for AI hot money to flow back into crypto. MicroStrategy shelled out another $370 million to buy more.
The Fear & Greed Index soared to 65, in the greed zone. But don’t panic—the futures open interest dropped from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC. This isn’t a buildup of leveraged longs; it’s a short squeeze plus spot market push, making the structure healthier.
**Short-term bias is bullish, $80,966.** Support at $80,000→$78,000→$76,310→$74,000, resistance at $82,278→$85,000→$88,000→$90,000.
As long as the $80,000 pullback holds, it’s a buy-in point. The macro narrative has shifted; the debasement trade is back. $100K by year-end? Don’t rush, take it step by step.In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has finally moved beyond the "macro suppression + weak recovery" of the previous days, further shifting towards a clearer rebound in risk appetite. BTC has returned to $81,000, ETH rose more than 5% in a single day, and SOL recovered in sync; meanwhile, the US spot ETF has updated with some parts showing obvious net inflows again, rapidly heating up market sentiment. However, this rally has a very important characteristic: active capital inflows and forced short covering are happening simultaneously. Over $415 million in short positions were liquidated, meaning the strength of this rally cannot be entirely attributed to new spot buying. Therefore, what really needs to be judged today is not "how much it has risen," but whether this rebound can gradually transition from a short squeeze to a sustained capital-driven rally. Risk appetite has clearly recovered, and the rally is starting to spread. As of September 4, 09:03 HKT, BTC is at $81,006, up 5.10% in 24h; ETH is at $2,501.82, up 5.31%; SOL is at $103.59, up 4.13%. According to CoinGecko Charts, total crypto market capitalization has risen to about $2.816 trillion, up 4.41% in 24h, with BTC dominance around 57.79%. The biggest difference from the previous days is that today the recovery is no longer limited to BTC or a few high-beta assets alone. Among the top 30 non-stablecoin market caps, ZEC leads with a 16.59% increase, while the weakest performer, LEO, still rose 1.18%. In other words, in this statisticGood morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $SPCX 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total liquidation amount for SPCX in 24 hours is: 5,760,400 USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 466,900 USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 5,293,500 USD. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the non-farm payroll data. BTC yesterday jumped directly from 77,000 to 81,000 because the market was already betting on weak data tonight.
The data itself: the market expects about 55,000 new jobs added in August, with the previous value at -23,000. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The real variable is how much it deviates from expectations, not the data quality itself.
Three scenarios:
· Data meets expectations (around 50,000): BTC has already risen 5.5% in advance, so the result will most likely be "good news already priced in," with a spike followed by a pullback and consolidation. $OKB will most likely follow BTC.
· Data far below expectations (below 30,000): The probability of a rate hike in September may fall below 50%, $BTC could have a chance to surge to 82,000-83,000. OKB, as a coin that follows the market, can ride this wave.
· Data exceeds expectations (above 80,000): ADP small non-farm was only 38,000, so if non-farm surges above 80,000, the contrast is too big, and rate hike expectations will quickly soar. BTC might crash directly from 80,000 back to 76,000 or even 73,500. OKB won’t outperform the market but will fall sharply; this scenario is the most dangerous for OKB. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ARB #Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
$ARB has surged nearly 40% in two days. This time, it's not just pure speculation on the “L2 narrative”; Robinhood is really starting to send money to Arbitrum!
Robinhood Chain has seen a complete volume surge in the past two days. On September 1st, daily fees hit a new high of $3.75 million, with DEX trading volume exceeding $1.5 billion, even surpassing Ethereum mainnet and Base at one point. RC uses the Arbitrum tech stack, and according to the Expansion Program rules, 10% of net protocol revenue must be returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem.
More importantly, this money has already been received. In its first month online, RC contributed about $360,000 in authorization fees, accounting for 35% of Arbitrum DAO's monthly revenue; meanwhile, Arbitrum DAO's total revenue for the first half of this year was only $6.19 million.
So the market suddenly started to revalue $ARB in the past two days, with a 24-hour increase of over 12%.
However, it’s important to distinguish: the money currently goes into the DAO treasury, not directly distributed to ARB holders. Next, the focus is on whether Robinhood Chain’s trading volume can be sustained and whether the DAO will further link revenue to ARB’s value.
If these two things materialize, $ARB can truly transition from a “governance token” to an “asset supported by income.”
#Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge from around 77,000 to 81,000 this time?
Many people's first reaction is to look for "what happened today," but I think the direction is wrong. The real accumulation for this rally actually happened before today.
In the past six days, BTC has been oscillating repeatedly around 77,000. The price seemed relatively stable, but capital and expectations were continuously building up. Today's rapid surge looks more like a concentrated release of the previously accumulated buy orders.
The capital flow had actually signaled this early on.
Since August 17, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows, totaling nearly 3 billion USD over nine trading days. In the last week of August alone, ETF net inflows reached about 1.92 billion USD, making it one of the strongest weeks this year. (Bitcoin News)
So this rally did not appear out of thin air.
There is also a market variable being traded in advance: September 15.
On that date, the U.S. Senate will hold a key vote on cryptocurrency regulation-related legislation, and the market has already started positioning ahead of this timeline. (Google)
Moreover, the policy direction itself is sending positive signals. The White House has publicly promoted the CLARITY Act, with the U.S. government aiming to maintain competitiveness in the crypto space. (Google)
The macro environment is also cooperating.
A weakening dollar and falling bond yields improve liquidity conditions for risk assets. BTC recently breaking above 80,000 happened against the backdrop of declining U.S. Treasury yields and improved risk asset sentiment. (Investopedia)
Looking at leverage.
If a rally is mainly driven by contract leverage, funding rates usually rise sharply. But currently, funding rates remain relatively moderate, indicating that, at least by this metric, the market is not experiencing an extremely crowded long trade.
More interestingly, the gains of risk assets like ETH and SOL have started to outpace BTC, showing that capital is not just returning to Bitcoin but that risk appetite across the entire crypto market is improving.
So I prefer to interpret this rally as:
Early capital inflows → Market expectation buildup → Macro environment improvement → Key resistance breakout → Further capital chasing prices.
What really deserves attention is not why BTC suddenly rose 4,000 USD today.
But what has happened in the past half month and what the market is trading ahead of.
September 15 is not far away now.
The market always prices in advance.
By the time news actually lands, the big move has often already happened.
This is why many people wait every day for "news confirmation," only to find out—
When they see the news, the price has already fully priced it in.
$BTC $ETH $CP #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Good morning everyone, today is September 4th. Let's review the early gold market.
At 8:30 tonight, the focus will be on the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, which are the biggest events of the week. These will directly impact the Fed's rate hike expectations and determine the short-term trend of gold.
Currently, the market is under pressure at high levels and pulling back, with a clear weakening of upward momentum. The short-term trend is weak overall, entering a phase of consolidation and correction. Although the overnight ADP data was positive, its impact was limited and the bulls did not sustain.
Key resistance levels to watch during the day are 4495, 4515, and 4533, while support levels are at 4468 and 4445. A price pullback to support may trigger a short-term rebound, but after the rebound, there is still a chance of a decline testing 4424.
Tonight's non-farm data will cause significant volatility, with many stop hunts and false breakouts during the session. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the morning, avoid chasing gains or cutting losses aggressively, strictly control position size, and wait for the evening data release before trading with the trend! $XAU 400 million USD worth of ETH is being moved to exchanges, I won't buy at this level
The cost of this batch is 1700, current price 2430. Held for two years, up 43%, now starting to sell off in batches. It's not liquidation, not panic, it's active profit-taking.
In the past three days, this address has moved 109,800 ETH to exchanges at an average price of 2430, worth 266 million USD. There are still 58,000 ETH left, worth 140 million, planning to sell a total of 167,800 ETH, valued at 406 million USD.
At the same time, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of 236 million USD in one day, with BlackRock's IBIT alone outflowing 201 million. Two consecutive days of single-day outflows exceeding 200 million USD is the largest scale since July 31.
Some are selling, some are running, some are buying?
ETH is hovering around 2400, BTC is grinding near 77000. The US-Iran conflict is escalating, and the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 66%. Funds are seeking safety, old money is taking profits, ETFs are flowing out.
My judgment is simple: this 400 million USD batch will most likely be fully sold.
Cost 1700, current price 2430, 43% profit. Selling off in batches at this level is not panic, it's reasonable profit-taking. I won't bottom-fish at this level, I'll wait until this 100,000 ETH batch is sold out.
$BTC $ETH $ETH Two-pancake strategy analysis!
Focus on the US non-farm payroll report at 8:30 PM tomorrow, which will directly affect Ethereum's trend.
Currently, the market foundation is actually not bad; funds haven't fled, institutions are buying, ETFs continue to have net inflows, and the surge of over 60% bulls actually makes me more confident, indicating the main force hasn't left. But tomorrow's non-farm payroll is the key variable. The market has already priced in a lot of hawkish expectations; if the data isn't as strong as imagined, it could actually be a rebound opportunity; if the data exceeds expectations, pressure will remain.
Despite the recent short-term pullback, it’s not necessarily bad; support remains very strong.
The opportunity window is fleeting, maintain a calm mindset, and patiently wait for direction confirmation after the non-farm payroll release.
More real-time ideas and position adjustments
This wave ⬆️5000 is no problem, patiently hold! That is the greatest wealth! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 "No More Altcoin Season, Japanese Companies Sell Off All Altcoins"
While everyone is still waiting anxiously for the altcoin season, Japanese companies suddenly sold off all their altcoins.
Remixpoint, listed in Tokyo, just announced it has completely liquidated its holdings of Ethereum, SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin. Except for a slight loss on Dogecoin, they cashed out nearly 900 million yen in profits.
For companies, holding a diversified bunch of altcoins doesn't hedge risk but instead unnecessarily increases asset volatility. It's better to secure profits and invest cash into energy storage industries, consolidating positions into Bitcoin.
After clearing out, the company’s books only show 1,506 pure Bitcoins. Through compliant institutional lending, they earned nearly 15 Bitcoins in interest in the first half of the year, firmly ranking as Japan’s third-largest Bitcoin holder.
The multi-coin experiment ended cleanly; the institution’s trump card ultimately remains Bitcoin. $BTC The core variable tonight is actually not $ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll data. The August employment report, released at 20:30 Beijing time, will directly determine the short-term breathing rhythm of risk assets. The market currently expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, but leading data has already shown weakness: ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000, below the expected 48,000, and July's non-farm payroll was revised down by 23,000. This combination makes tonight's data particularly significant.
If the non-farm payroll is significantly lower than expected, the market will likely reprice the logic of "weaker employment forcing the Fed to pivot," causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall, which could instead trigger a sharp rebound in $ETH. Conversely, if the data is stronger than expected and the unemployment rate does not rise, expectations for rate cuts will cool, the dollar will strengthen, and $ETH will need to guard against further short-term pressure.
For this reason, establishing a short position around 2510 feels more like a short-term play ahead of the data rather than a trend judgment. On the downside, first watch the support strength between 2470 and 2450; on the upside, if volume increases and it stabilizes above 2520, one must decisively admit the mistake. Data-driven markets are most vulnerable to chasing highs and selling lows; waiting for the first wave of intense volatility to settle before making decisions is often more composed than trying to jump the gun. Making money within your own understanding is the long-term way. Risk warning: Volatility will be intense before and after the data release, so strictly control leverage and position size, and prepare stop-loss plans. $ETHThis institution should have completed liquidation: the last 29,735 ETH ($72.06 million) were all transferred into CEX 9 hours ago.
In 4 days, a total of 172,546 ETH ($417 million) was transferred into CEX.LOL, brothers, I've really never seen a short position get hung in mid-air like this. I knew $ZEC would rally, but I really didn't expect it to rally this hard, going straight from 868 to 970, hitting new highs one after another, with the highest yesterday directly reaching 970. My short at 868.79 got filled, and today I see it's already floating at a 25% loss. It has been consolidating around 940 since last night; I don't know if it will drop back to the 800s today.
First, let's talk about how crazy the market data is.
The contract 24-hour trading volume is $1.148 billion, while spot is only $126 million, a ninefold difference. This high point wasn't pushed up by spot buying but was leveraged up; leverage-driven rallies rise fast and fall even faster. The total network ZEC contract 24-hour trading volume surged 89.28%. More importantly, the funding rate has turned negative, at -0.0018%. Perpetual contracts are at a discount rather than a premium, indicating that there aren't as many longs chasing at this price as imagined; instead, shorts are entering.
The liquidation data is even scarier. In the past 12 hours, over $68 million in ZEC contracts were liquidated network-wide, with short liquidations exceeding $66 million. That means shorts have almost been wiped out once. With shorts liquidated, how much fuel does the rally still have?
Looking at the technicals, key resistance levels ahead are at 860.60 and 888.00. If ZEC can regain support and continue rising above $900, $971 will be the next target. But if it fails to hold the $800-833 range, selling pressure may increase, pushing it down to $780-790, or even the lower support at $750.
My short at 868 is indeed stuck, but chasing longs at this level is also very risky. My judgment: hold the short for now, no adding or cutting losses, wait for a pullback. It couldn't hold at 970, so can it hold at 900? In the next 48 hours, expect a pullback around 850. Worst case, stop loss is set; if it triggers, so be it.
Brothers, the shorts got liquidated so badly this round, what do you think?
$BTC
$ETH
#FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm payrolls MINA status page is still before the upgrade, mainnet reached block 548263 at 09:09
Official Mesa status page has not been updated since 23:53 on September 3: the phase is still pre-upgrade, Genesis planned for 02:00 on September 4, and all six subsequent milestones are marked as pending.
At 09:09, rechecked the mainnet GraphQL provided on the same page, node returned SYNCED, height rose from 548262 at 09:03 to 548263 at 09:09. The status page and on-chain live data show about a 9-hour discrepancy.
If the height continues to increase and the latest block time is close to current, there is more evidence of stability; deposit and withdrawal recovery depends on specific service providers and cannot be directly inferred from block production.
How long of a continuous block production window would you observe before confirming this upgrade is stable?
Source: Mina Mesa mainnet status page, official GraphQL; as of 09:09 (UTC+8). Not investment advice.
#MINA #NetworkUpgrade SanDisk September 3 Review: Roller Coaster from 1511 to 1576, Closed at 1555
Yesterday, SanDisk experienced an intraday roller coaster.
Opened at 1544.55, after the open the storage sector collapsed—Western Digital fell 5.1%, Seagate fell 4%, SK Hynix fell 3.4%, Micron fell 2.2%, and SanDisk followed down 1.6%. The lowest point touched 1511.00. At one point intraday, it dropped over 2%.
Then the market snapped back. The Citi Global TMT Conference was held that day, with SanDisk management attending and delivering a live speech. In the afternoon, it rallied all the way up, reaching a high of 1576.80. It slightly retreated near the close, finishing at 1554.99, a slight increase of 0.10%. The daily amplitude was 4.26%, with a trading volume of 8.539 million shares.
There were two suppressing factors in the news. First, company executive Alper Ilkbahar submitted Form 144, intending to sell 6,270 shares, valued at approximately $9.74 million. Second, China Yangtze Memory Technologies has overtaken SanDisk in global NAND market share.
Compared to the previous two days—September 1 closed at 1536, September 2 closed at 1553, and September 3 closed at 1554—the bottom has been rising for three consecutive days. The 1511 low was not broken, but the 1576-1580 range still acts as resistance. This bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow indicates buyers are willing to step in around 1500-1510, but it is not a breakout signal. After the Citi conference ended, momentum funds exited; today we will see if the 1530-1550 support zone can hold on a pullback.
For reference only, not investment advice. $SNDK #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Order book liquidity depth is a point many traders overlook. When prices rise, insufficient liquidity is not obvious; once the market reverses, huge slippage occurs.
$SOL: The order book depth is sufficient; whether rising or pulling back, buy and sell orders remain relatively stable, and large inflows or outflows won't cause extreme spikes.
$ZEC: Liquidity depth is relatively weak, open interest surges, but the order book thickness is limited. Once funds withdraw, rapid and significant pullbacks occur.
$ENA: The market cap is small, liquidity fluctuates greatly, and large orders can easily move the price;
$DOGE: Overall liquidity is acceptable, but in meme-driven markets, panic sentiment can also amplify slippage.
For small-cap thematic coins, even if short-term gains are impressive, liquidity risk must be included in the assessment. If unexpected negative news hits, liquidity drying up can lead to an inability to sell, which is a risk more frightening than price drops.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
#Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up BTC surged 24% in a single month and entered the "digital gold pricing cycle," but tonight's non-farm payrolls are a liquidity assassin; the real money on-chain is in Robinhood Chain and TradFi settlement channels.
This is a "narrative divergence" rally, not a broad-based rally.
BTC's rise is supported by a macro pricing paradigm shift (BTC-gold correlation at a six-year high, debt monetization), but $86,000 is a repeatedly tested hard resistance level, and tonight's non-farm payrolls along with next week's CPI pose clear liquidity risks—chasing highs has poor odds, waiting for a pullback confirmation is better.
The real Alpha lies in on-chain cash flow, and this period has seen two samples of different natures:
Cash flow realized $ARB (Robinhood Chain revenue share)
Income is real, verifiable, and has entered the DAO treasury The logic is the strongest, but short-term overbought + September unlock, wait for $0.14 confirmation or post-unlock support, Robinhood Chain daily Gas fees surged 82 times in 11 days, single chain surpassing all others
Cash flow en route $LINK (Bottomline 16 trillion payments)
Real and massive scale, but slow demand for token conversion $12 is the key watershed, breaking above opens 13–13.8!ALTCOINS ARE WAKING UP — NOT ALTSEASON YET
The market is greener, but flows don’t confirm altseason.
$BTC pushed toward $81.4K, lifting $ETH ,$SOL and major alts. Yet ETF flows remain divided: Bitcoin attracted around $101M, while $ETH, $XRP and $SOL ETFs saw outflows.
I’m watching $ETH/$BTC, $SOL, $BNB, plus rotation into $SUI, $AVAX, $AAVE, $LINK and AI tokens.
Altseason doesn’t start when a few tokens pump.
It starts when capital broadens.
For now, the signal is forming — not confirmed.Short $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payrolls tonight!
The logic is not blindly bearish, but rather testing short-term trades stuck at the resistance zone above 2500. After ETH's rebound to this point, volume and structure have not fully confirmed a breakout; 2520-2550 is a more critical boundary between bulls and bears. If it can't hold above, treat it as a rebound.
The real driver is the US August non-farm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time.
The market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%; the preceding ADP only added 38,000, and July's non-farm payrolls were revised down, indicating employment isn't that strong. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will reprice "cooling employment leading to a Fed pivot," and risk assets may rally first; if employment is stronger and unemployment doesn't rise, rate cut expectations will continue to be suppressed, the dollar and US bonds will rise, and ETH will face short-term pressure.
My approach: hold short positions below 2500 and observe, look for the first pullback around 2470-2450; if volume surges and it stabilizes above 2520, admit the short position was wrong and don't stubbornly hold on. Don't chase a single candle after the data comes out; wait for the first wave of volatility to settle. Position size and stop loss are more important than direction.
✌️✌️✌️
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Bitcoin's rebound this round has clearly strengthened. On September 3rd, BTC briefly surged to about $81,800 intraday, quickly rising over 6% from the day's low near $76,900. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and Federal Reserve officials released relatively dovish interest rate signals, all of which gave a significant boost to risk assets. The focus of this market move is not just "rising back to 80,000," but that the market's capacity to absorb is changing. 💰 Funding side: ETFs remain the core observation indicator. The recent fund performance of U.S. spot BTC ETFs has improved. In the previous week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.92 billion in inflows, marking one of the strongest single-week performances since October 2025; the entire crypto fund market saw inflows of about $3.2 billion during the same period. However, ETF funds have not continuously net flowed in every day, with noticeable fluctuations in fund inflows and outflows recently. Therefore, rather than simply interpreting this as "institutions bottom-fishing comprehensively," it is better seen as institutional funds gradually increasing their allocation to BTC, though the trend still requires more data to confirm. 📊 Coinbase Premium: U.S. buying demand is trying to recover. The price difference between Coinbase and overseas trading platforms has always been an important indicator to observe U.S. spot demand. At the end of August, the Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive after several months of weakness, but then fell back again, indicating that U.S. buying demand has indeed shown signs of improvement, but it is not yet strong enough to be defined as sustained institutional accumulation. SoSeptember 4th Morning Gold Outlook
Yesterday, the gold market experienced a strong explosive rally. After the price started rising from the low of 4381, bullish momentum was fully released, driving the overall market significantly stronger. After the surge, the market slightly pulled back and is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. The hourly chart closed with a strong bullish candlestick, indicating a well-maintained short-term bullish trend structure and a basically established phase bullish pattern.
However, after a rapid continuous rise, short-term technical indicators have entered the overbought zone. Coupled with increased profit-taking pressure at high levels, the market clearly needs a corrective pullback. Intraday operations should avoid aggressive chasing of highs; it is more advisable to focus on buying on dips after stabilization and wait for rhythm recovery before following the trend.
Specific operation rhythm suggestions are as follows:
· If the price pulls back to the 4450–4470 range and shows signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing, consider following the trend to go long. The first short-term target is the 4500 psychological level. If it effectively holds above and breaks through, the market could further target 4520, and if the wave trend continues, it may push toward the high area around 4600.
· If the intraday rebound reaches the 4480–4500 resistance zone and shows obvious signs of stagnation or weakening momentum, consider lightly participating in short-term short positions on the pullback. The first support to test on the decline is 4450; if this level is effectively broken, the downside space will further open, with subsequent support levels at 4430 and, for a deep pullback, the key support area around 4320.
Overall, adopt a range-bound approach intraday, focusing on observing the gains or losses of key zones, and patiently wait for confirmation signals before entering. I strongly agree with this statement:
Google released Gemini 3.8 Flash, compressing frontier-level capabilities into the Flash price range;
Meta released Muse Spark 1.3, enabling Agents to accomplish more with fewer tokens and tool calls;
Mostik went even further, starting to try to prevent some tokens between models from being generated from the very beginning.
They all actually point to the same change:
Intelligence is becoming cheap at an extremely exaggerated speed.
Therefore, the profitability certainty of Hyperscalers > top-tier model manufacturers (O and A) > Neocloud/second-tier model manufacturers > semiconductor industry chain
When intelligence is no longer outrageously expensive, the bottleneck in semiconductors will no longer exist. (Think about this logic) 🚨The Federal Reserve has not made a statement, but the market is imagining rate cut expectations.
📊Initial jobless claims at a low of 206,000, continuing claims slightly up at 1,779,000, data painting a picture of "zombie employment": companies, due to labor shortages and policy uncertainty, stubbornly avoid layoffs and also freeze new hires. This situation makes algorithms and macro funds blindly optimistic, prematurely betting on the Fed turning dovish, driving up BTC and crypto stocks. But in reality, it's arbitrage players exploiting expectation gaps to capture liquidity premiums, not Web3 fundamentals.
💣The hidden risk is: as long as a wave of layoffs does not break out, the tight labor balance will continue to support sticky inflation in the service sector, putting the Fed in a dilemma, unable to ease or signal relaxation.
🔍On-chain rallies rely on derivative liquidations and leverage, with whales reversing and shifting chips.
📅If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations or inflation remains stubborn, high leverage will trigger chain liquidations.
💡Strategy: do not chase the rally, wait for a sell-off before positioning in real on-chain yield scenarios.
$BTC $ETH $BNB Why can $81,000 be strongly pulled up?
“Ethereum/Altcoin Bleeding” and Extreme Siphoning Effect
Liquidity is not being broadly injected but shows an extreme one-sided siphoning. Funds are all concentrating into BTC, with BTC dominance remaining high.
Short Squeeze
In the previous $75,000–78,000 consolidation zone, a large amount of short-term derivative shorts accumulated. This surge with volume directly broke through key resistance, triggering massive forced liquidations (short squeezes), turning the short squeeze into fuel for pushing prices higher.
“Narrative Hedge” under High US Treasury Yields
Although the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.7%, the market is now betting on the long-term outcome of “excessive fiscal deficit + the Fed eventually having to cut rates/expand balance sheet.” BTC is being accumulated by some institutional funds as an “inflation hedge + decentralized hard asset.”
Current Market Situation and Key Levels
Upside Resistance: After breaking the $80,000 mark, the upside is almost a vacuum of chips, directly entering the price discovery phase. The next psychological level to watch is $85,000.
Downside Support: $80,000 has turned from previous strong resistance into the first psychological support; if a sharp wick and shakeout occur, strong chip support will be lifted to the $77,500–78,000 range. $BTC Nonfarm Payroll Rate Cut Forecast: How will the market move tonight... Brothers, share your strategies.
New jobs over 95,000 (10% probability): S&P 500 index may drop 0.5% to 1.25%.
New jobs between 65,000 and 95,000 (25% probability): S&P 500 index may decline 0.25% to 0.5%.
New jobs between 35,000 and 65,000 (30% probability): S&P 500 index may fall up to 0.25% or rise up to 0.5%.
New jobs between 5,000 and 35,000 (25% probability): S&P 500 index may rise 0.25% to 0.75%.
New jobs fewer than 5,000 (10% probability): S&P 500 index may fall up to 0.25% or rise up to 0.5%.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tonight, the crypto market is highly likely to experience full volatility. It often first fakes a pump, then reverses with a wick within minutes, sweeping stop losses on both longs and shorts. $BTC The market generally estimates that August's non-farm payrolls will increase by about 50,000 to 60,000, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%, and wages rising slightly. July's non-farm payrolls were negative, with 23,000 fewer jobs; this time a slight recovery is expected but still not very strong. $ETH A few days ago, the small non-farm ADP report was unexpectedly poor, delivering bad data that served as a warning to the market, so everyone already expects weakening employment. However, the official non-farm payrolls often do not align with the ADP report and can easily reverse directly, so never jump to conclusions based solely on ADP. $ZEC There are three realistic scenarios: 1. Data is clearly better than expected, employment is strong, which supports the Fed and brings back thoughts of rate hikes. The dollar strengthens, the crypto market tends to get hit, and Bitcoin at 79,000 is very likely to drop sharply, with wicks down sweeping shorts then reversing to sweep longs. 2. Data is worse than expected, employment is weak, the market will think high rates are unsustainable, rate cut expectations rise, and risk assets tend to rebound. But be cautious: if the data is too bad, the market will panic about the economy failing and collectively sell off, dragging crypto prices down as well. 3. Data is around expectations, neither hot nor cold. This is the most frustrating scenario, with no clear single direction, first wicks up and down sweeping stop losses back and forth, then continuing to grind in place, extending the current tug-of-war between 77,000 and 79,000. Also, a big pitfall is to not only look at the number of new jobs but also wage figures Account Position Divergence Radar
Both are bullish, but account long positions and heavy positions are not the same; the difference is shown in this chart.
$DOGE account numbers consistently lean bullish, but the top holding ratio remains below 1, so the advantage in number of holders has not translated into a top position advantage. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and the attribution of positions still requires transaction verification. There are already enough bullish accounts; what can truly narrow the divergence is the top holding ratio rising above 1.
$SUI different account metrics stand on opposite sides; currently, treat it as divergence without amplifying any particular ratio. Price and positions fall together, releasing selling pressure; which side is exiting cannot be confirmed by this data alone. Next, observe which account metric changes continuously first and is confirmed by price and OI.
$EDGE account metrics tilt toward the short side, but the top holding weight remains bullish; this data only confirms divergence and does not judge a winner. Price rises while OI falls, the most certain factor is position reduction driving this; the specific exiting side cannot be confirmed by this data alone. The short side next needs not more accounts, but confirmation of top position weight.The competitive landscape among the three “money printing machines” in the crypto market has recently seen some subtle changes. Although $UNI has the highest protocol fee revenue, most of it is distributed to liquidity providers, making the actual amount used for buyback and burn the lowest among the three. Its recent price increase mainly relies on the Robinhood chain, which contributed over 66% of the buyback volume. Whether the price can hold up going forward largely depends on the performance of this chain.
$PUMP has always been very profitable, but as a launch platform, ordinary players can hardly participate. New tokens keep emerging, and retail investors often face various arbitrage and attacks, which is currently its biggest pain point. However, after looking at the pons mechanism on the Robinhood chain, it becomes clear that these issues are technically not difficult to solve.
As for $HYPE, the market pricing is already quite thorough. If I had to choose only one out of the three, I would rather choose none, because the real dark horse might be someone else. This new platform has a 24-hour protocol fee of 5.95 million USD, income of 1.11 million USD, with fees exceeding pump for two consecutive days, and a buyback and burn ratio as high as 29.3%, with even greater transparency. Barring any surprises, it could become the biggest variable in this bull market.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and the above is only data observation, not investment advice. $UNI $PUMP$CORE rebound comes from the burn benefit, nodes have not yet recovered, and there are temporarily fewer sell orders. However, the risk of dispersed chips has not been eliminated, so do not chase the high; focus on observing the chip flow after deposit and withdrawal are opened.U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the S&P around 7748 points (+1.1%), the Dow around 53686 points (+1.2%), the Nasdaq around 26584 points (+1.4%), and $QQQ closing at 717.65. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to about 4.77%. On the surface, it looks like a tech rebound, but in essence, after Waller pushed the probability of a September rate hike down from about 63% to about 48%, the market is repricing the idea of "holding steady." This is more like a high-level repricing. $NVDA already reported revenue of $96.2 billion on August 26, with $89 billion from data centers and guidance of $108 billion for the next quarter, indicating demand is not weak; after the Jackson Hole speech, valuations were first pressured by interest rates. Tonight at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls report is the first reconciliation, and the CPI on September 11 will determine the direction of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 1. First, look at this chart for the broader market: Tech is up 43% for the year and remains the core of U.S. stock pricing; however, the leaders in the past month have been energy (+10.8%) and healthcare (+6.8%). Semiconductors are up 70% for the year but have pulled back 9% recently, showing the greatest volatility and deepest digestion. Financials rose yesterday due to interest rates, not because of a new industry story. Industrials have been the weakest recently, indicating that the "AI factory is fully priced in" is not yet true. Therefore, the index turning positive on Thursday should not be directly interpreted as a restart of the tech theme. A cleaner validation is when three things happen simultaneously: $Originally, I was waiting for a pullback, but the market simply didn't give much time to get in. BTC recently rebounded quickly from around $76K to above $81K, once touching about $81.4K intraday; meanwhile, US stock risk assets also strengthened significantly. My biggest misjudgment at the time was: "Since the negative news is already priced in, it should drop first, then start a rebound." But the market told me—sometimes, truly strong trends don't give opportunities according to your expected rhythm. 🔥 The most critical catalyst now is the US August nonfarm payrolls. Today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. The market currently expects about 50,000 new nonfarm jobs, while July actually recorded -23,000; unemployment rate and wage data will also affect the market's judgment on the Fed's September policy. More interestingly, yesterday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech leaned towards maintaining the current interest rate, which boosted market expectations of "no rate hike for now," also helping BTC briefly reclaim $81K. So now the market is really trading not just on: "Is the nonfarm payroll good or bad?" but rather: Cooling employment → easing inflation pressure → Fed policy expectations turning dovish → liquidity improvement → BTC continues to absorb risk capital Of course, if employment data is much stronger than expected, interest rates and the dollar could rise again, and BTC might face pressure once more. 📌 My observation: $BTC → still the core of capital currently $ETH →BTC has once again stood near $81K. What the market truly needs to focus on is no longer just the price increase, but the underlying capital movements. Latest data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of about $101.15M in a single day, while the previous day saw a net outflow of about $236.5M, indicating that institutional funds are rapidly readjusting their positions. Meanwhile, the ETH ETF experienced a net outflow of about $48M, ending a streak of 12 consecutive trading days of inflows. This means that funds have not yet formed a clear comprehensive rotation from “BTC → ETH → altcoins.” 📊 The current capital flow path looks more like: BTC absorbs liquidity → institutions return to mainstream assets → ETH awaits fund confirmation → altcoins seek the next round of opportunities. Additionally, the recent rise in BTC has also been driven by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and a decline in global bond yields, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. However, it is important to note: BTC still faces significant technical resistance near $82K–$83K. Whether it can truly break through will determine if this rebound is merely a short-term capital return or the start of a larger trend. 🔥 So the real question now is not: “Has capital returned to the crypto market?” but rather: “Will the next wave of institutional funds flow to BTC, ETH, or start seeking high Beta altcoins?” Once capital rotation is clearly confirmed, the market’s next phase$ZEC hit a high of 979 yesterday, just 21 dollars short of 1000. It rallied from 780 to 979, up 25% in a week. The narrative of Grayscale's buy calls plus ETF expectations is still fermenting, and it feels like it has the momentum to reach 1000.
$USELESS is even more extreme, rising from 0.08 to 0.21, more than doubling in three days. The degree of control by the whales is very high, with minimal pullback. After Bonk Guy's buy call, new funds are stepping in to continue the rally. This token's chips are highly concentrated, and the cost to push the price up is very low. My short position is also holding strong.
$HYPE is consolidating sideways near 86 at a high level. I wanted to buy yesterday but didn't pull the trigger; today it's still at the same level. This kind of high-level sideways consolidation without dropping indicates a stable chip structure, and the main force is waiting for an opportunity to break the previous high.
My judgment:
ZEC is clearly overbought in the short term, with RSI at 72.41. If the overall market pulls back, ZEC's retracement won't be small. The mid-to-long-term logic remains intact, supported by the privacy coin leader status plus ETF expectation narrative. Consider buying on a pullback to 850-880.
USELESS is purely driven by whales and KOL buy calls, with no fundamental support. The more violently it rises, the harsher the drop when it falls. If you don't have a base position, it's recommended to watch rather than chase.
HYPE is in a high-level accumulation phase, consolidating with low volume near 86, with stable chips. Once the overall market stabilizes, HYPE might be the first to break out.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Robinhood chain suddenly surges in volume, does $ARB finally have a "profit-making" logic this time?
What truly stimulates the market is that Arbitrum has for the first time shown quantifiable incremental revenue expectations.
Robinhood Chain's trading volume surged 89.5% to $6.92 billion in the past week, with 24-hour revenue reaching as high as $1.92 million. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue flows back into the Arbitrum ecosystem.
The market immediately responded: ARB surged from about $0.073 on August 18 to about $0.11, a single-day increase of over 30%; meanwhile, derivatives trading volume once soared to $1.37 billion, and open interest also rose to about $165 million, clearly showing leveraged funds entering.
But the easiest thing to overhype here is: money earned by Robinhood ≠ direct dividends to ARB holders, it mainly goes into the Arbitrum DAO treasury. So I define this round as fundamental improvement + narrative revaluation + leverage amplification, not ARB suddenly becoming a cash flow asset.
What really matters is whether Robinhood chain's revenue can sustain. If trading volume continues to rise, ARB might this time transform from an "L2 token with no story" to an "infrastructure asset supported by real revenue"; but if activity mainly relies on Meme/bot speculation, after the hype fades, this 30% increase can easily be given back. The most recent concern in the $CORE community has gradually shifted from "Can the vulnerability be fixed?" to: When will deposits and withdrawals on exchanges fully resume? Once the channels reopen, will CORE experience a crazy surge? My view is: Resuming deposits and withdrawals is an important signal, but it is by no means a "one-click takeoff button." What it truly brings is reconnecting the previously temporarily isolated on-chain tokens with the secondary market. At that time, the real buying and selling forces in the market will collide again. 📢 Latest update The Core DAO v1.0.26 emergency hard fork has been launched on the mainnet. The official statement says the reward issuance vulnerability has been fixed, and over 150 million excess CORE tokens have been burned. This upgrade did not roll back historical transactions nor cause losses to ordinary users' assets; the official also stated that staking rewards are expected to gradually return to normal, with a full incident review still pending release. Meanwhile, exchanges such as Coinbase, Bitget, and LBank have previously imposed restrictions on CORE deposits/withdrawals. The specific resumption times depend on each exchange's announcements and page status. Therefore, what is truly worth observing next is not just whether the channels are open, but how much buying and selling volume enters the market simultaneously once the channels open. 🟢 The bullish side 1️⃣ The biggest uncertainty has clearly decreased The hard fork is complete, the reward issuance vulnerability has been fixed, and over 150 million excess CORE tokens have been officially announced as permanently burned, which means thisBlockchain is not an exception pass for asynchronous MPC
The conclusion of IACR ePrint 2026/1860 is layered: asynchronous MPC remains constrained by classical fault tolerance boundaries without a trusted setup or relying only on Minicrypt assumptions; under a public-key assumption with a trusted setup, the authors construct another class of protocols tolerant to Byzantine adversaries.[1]
On the same day, the SEC proposed updating the registered transfer agent rules to include electronic and blockchain-based recordkeeping, risk management, and business continuity.[2][3]
Both lines point to a common user issue: who approves state changes, who maintains the official records, and how are exceptions handled? Neither the research results nor the regulatory proposals guarantee the security of existing wallets. #AI #Web3 #MPC #AsyncMPCBefore tonight's nonfarm payroll release, three sets of U.S. data did not give $BTC a one-way answer.
U.S. Department of Labor data shows:
- For the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims were 206,000, an increase of 2,000 from the revised previous value;
- The four-week average rose to 207,250;
- Continuing claims were 1.779 million, an increase of 8,000 from the revised previous value.
Therefore, it is not accurate to simply describe the continuing claims data as "declining." Revisions to previous values and different comparison baselines can easily cause discrepancies between news headlines and official reports.
On the other hand, the August ISM Services Index rose to 55.4, indicating demand is still expanding; however, the employment sub-index is only 47.8, still in contraction territory, while the prices sub-index rose to 72.6.
Putting these data together, the situation is closer to:
Strong service demand, cautious corporate hiring, and persistent price pressures.
This is not simply "weak data = BTC rises," nor "strong economy = BTC falls." At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. What I will focus on then is:
1. Where the first big candlestick closes after the data release;
2. Whether there is a continuous close and continuation after breaking through the pre-event range;
3. If it quickly returns to the original range, whether this breakout was just a liquidity sweep.
Macro data is responsible for creating volatility, while price action confirms which direction the market ultimately accepts.
When you watch data-driven markets, do you chase the first wave or wait for event range confirmation? · Geopolitics: Rising tensions between the US and Iran have triggered market risk aversion. · Interest Rate Hike Expectations: US Treasury yields are climbing, reigniting market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. · "September Curse": Historically, September tends to be a poor month for risk assets, intensifying market anxiety. 📊 Reasons for the price changes of various cryptocurrencies are analyzed one by one. Below is the detailed situation of tokens in the table: 📉 Significant declines (dragged down by macro shocks or fundamental issues) · BTC (-0.31%): The tightening macro liquidity combined with deteriorating on-chain token distribution created a resonance effect, hindering the rebound. Technically, there is strong resistance around $82,000. · ETH (-0.50%): Besides macro pressure, the inflow of spot ETF funds is insufficient to absorb potential large sell-offs, causing the price to fall below $2,400. · SOL (-1.44%): An ecosystem hack led to nearly $300 million stolen, triggering liquidity and trust crises; token unlocks following FTX's bankruptcy continue to exert selling pressure. · XRP (-1.25%): Even with over $14 million net inflow from spot ETFs, it still couldn't withstand macro headwinds and large-scale derivative market sell-offs; after regulatory benefits were realized, the market saw profit-taking on "good news exhaustion." · DOGE (-2.09%): The bullish logic related to Musk collapsed, combined with whale sell-offs (reported at 260 million coins) and lack of new catalysts, leading to price pressure. · OKB (-1.73%): Following earlier speculative gainsThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it's driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations. #EarningsObserver: Broadcom's performance exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised guidance
Fed Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the September rate hike probability down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly. #LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
However, looking at the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000—a typical spike and retrace pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast as well. #CryptoTreasuryExpansion faces index qualification challenges