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The Federal Reserve hasn't even opened its mouth, yet the market has already played out the liquidity easing drama to its grand finale.
Last night, initial jobless claims stubbornly stuck at a historic low of 206,000, and continuing claims quietly crept up to 1.779 million. What’s really being fought for isn’t the rate cut optimism hyped by Wall Street, but the Fed’s biggest headache: the zombie state of employment.
Enterprises, terrified by the labor shortages of previous years, would rather bear the cost than lay off workers, and in the face of policy uncertainty, they’ve completely shut the door on new hiring.
This "neither hiring nor firing" frozen state has funneled all on-site capital into a blindly optimistic speculative frenzy.
Seeing a slight rise in unemployment data and officials casually making dovish remarks, algorithmic traders and macro hedge funds collectively rushed in to bet on the Fed backing down, forcibly pushing $BTC through resistance levels, with crypto concept stocks soaring across the board.
This rally has nothing to do with Web3’s internal fundamentals; it’s purely a macro arbitrage play feeding on liquidity premium from expectation gaps.
The current market logic has completely inverted: funds are betting on labor softening to force easing, yet collectively pretending not to see the most fatal hidden risks.
As long as the wave of layoffs doesn’t come, the tight labor balance will keep supporting sticky inflation in the service sector. This stagflation precursor—neither crashing nor growing—only puts the Fed on the hot seat, unable to aggressively ease nor fully commit to rate hikes.
On-chain chips have long since leaked out completely; the rally relies entirely on derivative short squeezes and leveraged funds pushing hard. Big players haven’t made a single move to build positions; instead, they’re quietly moving chips to exchanges during the rebound.
The upcoming nonfarm payrolls will be the real battleground. If data slightly exceeds expectations or sticky inflation forces hawkish statements, these high-leverage positions built on rate cut illusions could trigger chain liquidations in minutes.
Jumping in at the peak of euphoria to take the baton for Wall Street is the dumbest, least cost-effective move of the year.
Don’t chase the illusions painted by macro. After the stampede lands, the real profits lie in structural opportunities with on-chain yields and practical use cases that can be held onto.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ETH $ZEC The Fear and Greed Index has returned to greed.
Around 63–65.
Yields are going down, risk appetite is coming back, and naturally, the sentiment in the crypto space is heating up.
But there is a very easy-to-misinterpret point here.
Greed does not equal confirmation of an uptrend.
It’s more like a mirror.
Prices rise, people make money, and sentiment naturally improves.
Then improved sentiment attracts more people to chase in.
Here lies the problem.
If BTC continues to rise and spot funds keep flowing in, it means this round of sentiment might be turning into a real trend.
But if sentiment is already very greedy and prices start to stall...
then this indicator is no longer a booster but might become a warning.
After all, the market never rises just because everyone is bullish.
It’s that after the rise, people become increasingly confident to be bullish.
$BTC SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE? $BTC STILL HAS ONE BIG MACRO HURDLE TO CLEAR
The market is becoming increasingly focused on what the Fed could do in September, but I think there’s an important distinction being missed.
Waller’s latest comments don’t guarantee a rate cut.
His message is much more conditional:
If inflation continues to cool, he would lean toward keeping rates where they are.
But if August inflation accelerates again, a rate hike could still be on the table.
That difference matters for Bitcoin.
Yes, the possibility of no additional tightening is positive compared with a scenario where rates continue moving higher.
Lower pressure on liquidity generally gives risk assets more room to breathe, and that can support crypto.
But we shouldn't immediately translate “no hike” into “easy money is coming.”
Those are two very different environments.
A pause means the Fed is waiting for more evidence.
An easing cycle means financial conditions could begin becoming more supportive.
Bitcoin can benefit from both, but the magnitude of the reaction can be very different.
That’s why I’m paying close attention to inflation.
The upcoming August CPI on September 11 could become more important than the market currently expects, especially given Waller’s emphasis on inflation when evaluating his policy stance.
The setup is straightforward:
Inflation cools → less pressure on the Fed → fewer reasons to tighten → better environment for risk assets.
But:
Inflation rises again → Fed stays concerned → hike risk increases → liquidity expectations weaken → BTC faces another hurdle.
This is also why I wouldn't rely solely on employment data.
A weaker labor market doesn't automatically mean the Fed will become dovish.
If employment slows while inflation remains stubborn or starts accelerating, policymakers face a much more complicated decision.
And that's where the market can get caught off guard.
For $BTC, the current rebound is encouraging, but I don't think the macro case is fully confirmed yet. Is the bull market really here?
I believe a bull market needs to meet the following conditions:
First, sustainability.
Not just a 40% rise in two weeks, but a sustained high over three to six months, with every pullback met by buying support.
Second, the entry of incremental funds opens up.
After the spot ETF in the last bull market, what is the next channel to bring in new money? Brokerage channels, two-way channels for tokenized stocks, or corporate balance sheets? If none can be found, it’s still a game of existing supply.
Or put another way, we should continue to watch whether spot ETFs keep seeing inflows, forming a relatively stable buying base.
Third, whether Crypto itself generates more real usage.
For example, stablecoin payments continue to grow, on-chain transactions and financial activities expand, and whether Crypto+AI really takes off, etc.
Fourth, and most crucially, there must be a breakout protagonist.
Every bull market has a clear leading narrative: 2017 was ICOs, 2020–21 was DeFi Summer plus NFT, 2023–24 is spot ETFs plus Meme and SOL.
So far in this cycle, there is no widely recognized protagonist. The most talked about are tokenized stocks and broker chains—Nasdaq’s tokenized stock rules passed in March, and Robinhood launched its own chain. Whoever can truly bring incremental users from outside the circle will be the protagonist of this round.
A bull market needs a breakout point!You can try to reason by analogy.
The country does not recognize the value of virtual currency, but it acknowledges that you spent real money to buy it.
If domestic users encounter exchange or Ponzi scheme runaways and seek legal protection in the future, the judgment basis of this financial case will provide great help.
Although the court will not recognize its current value, it will acknowledge your purchase cost.#比特币再破80000美元
I am Cige, BTC has once again broken through 80000 USD. The market's expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen back, providing macro support for this rebound. After Waller's speech, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 70% to 50.2%, U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
However, market views are clearly divided. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes the bull market trend has already started, with around 86000 USD as the next resistance. Jiang Zhuoer reduced all BTC positions near 82050 USD, believing there is a risk of a pullback after ETF funds weaken. In August, the U.S. spot BTC ETF overall maintained net inflows, but at the beginning of September, funds began to fluctuate in both directions, and institutional buying has yet to form continuous momentum.
Bitwise data shows the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to the highest level since 2020, supporting the narrative of hedging against currency depreciation. BTC is shifting from a risk asset to a currency depreciation hedge asset, a structural change more important than short-term price fluctuations.
The current core contradiction is whether institutional funds linked with gold can support BTC in absorbing selling pressure around 80000 to 82500 USD. If it can hold above 82000 with volume, the direction will open up. If it repeatedly surges and falls back, around 82000 may form a temporary top. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL $ARB this trade capitalizes on the "best fundamentals among L2s + the mismatch correction of traditional finance moving on-chain" expectation. Arbitrum is not only the leader in TVL/transaction volume, with H1 stablecoin monthly turnover exceeding $7 billion, 10.5 million holders (+40%), and the highest number of RWA deployments; after Robinhood Chain launch, fees and AEP revenue sharing provide the DAO with a real income curve, and institutions are starting to model it using the "AWS of blockchains" framework.
On the technical side, Elara+Stylus+ZK Settlement integrate compliance, Rust/C++/WASM, and faster finality—this is not just narrative. On the downside: the token price has retraced about 95% from ATH, with linear unlocks extending to 2027, a high proportion held by team/investors/foundation, and any unlock window or ETH weakness will pressure valuation. $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Tesla (TSLA) is currently in a critical transitional phase of its valuation paradigm—the market pricing has completely shifted from a single "electric vehicle hardware manufacturer" to a dual-engine model of "physical AI (FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus) + industrial-grade energy storage." Latest news: The design goal of Cybercab is to become the safest car on the road. Tesla's current market value is stable in the $1.4–1.5 trillion range, with a high rolling P/E ratio. This valuation structure means that pure vehicle delivery volume can no longer explain its premium; the core pricing power in the market is entirely dominated by the cash flow moat of its energy storage business and the AI commercialization option. Breakdown of core business fundamentals: 1. Vehicle manufacturing: growth slowdown and gross margin bottoming Delivery pattern differentiation: After facing delivery pressure in 2025 and fierce competition from mainstream Chinese automakers, Tesla stabilized its base through refreshed Model 3/Y and cost-reduced models, with quarterly deliveries gradually stabilizing in the 400,000–480,000 unit range. Gross margin recovery: Thanks to continuous supply chain cost compression and next-generation platform production process optimization, the automotive business gross margin after deducting regulatory credits has gradually risen from a low of 15% to the 18%–20% range. 2. Energy production and storage (Megapack & Powerwall): the strongest cash cow and growth pole Explosive expansion: The energy storage business has become Tesla's highest quality profit engine. Annual energy storage installations have reached #BTC breaks 82,000 #Interest Rate Hike Expectations Plummet #Short Squeeze
**Strong rebound.** Waller’s dovish tone pulled the crypto market out of the panic over rate hikes — but this rebound is fueled by macro expectation gaps, not crypto’s own story.
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**2️⃣ Core Logic Chain**
What was the market originally betting on? A Fed rate hike in September. The Jackson Hole conference was hawkish, pushing the hike probability to 63%. BTC was stuck around $77,000 for a whole week, with bears seemingly waiting for the hammer to drop.
What happened today? Fed Governor Waller suddenly turned dovish on September 3: "If inflation continues to ease, we tend to keep rates unchanged." This statement smashed the hike probability from 63% down to 50.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.754%, the dollar weakened, gold surged 2% to $4,539, and the three major US stock indexes rose together — risk assets collectively repriced.
What expectation changed? From "rate hike imminent" to "most likely no change." This narrative shift directly triggered BTC’s short squeeze from 77K to 82K — nearly $500 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with over 80% being shorts squeezed. But note: Waller’s dovishness is conditional — "if inflation continues to ease" means no hike; August CPI is not out yet, and **tonight’s NFP release could reverse this**. This is a borrowed rebound, not a confirmed trend.
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**3️⃣ Mainstream Coin Tiering**
**BTC:** Leading the rally, up 5.5% in 24h to 82,300. ETF net inflow on September 3 was $121 million (+1,532 coins), with August’s full-month net inflow hitting $3.52 billion, a yearly high, showing institutions are buying with real money. But 82,000-82,300 is a previous dense trading zone; without volume to hold above, it’s a false breakout. Today is a test, don’t chase highs.
**ETH:** Followed up 4.4% to 2,510, ETF net inflow $88.61 million (+36,324 coins), stronger than expected. But ETH/BTC ratio remains weak, dragged by BTC, not showing independent strength. Enough for now, don’t expect a standalone rally.
**SOL:** Flexible player, up 3.5% to 103-105, with net inflows ranking high. After hitting 105, it clearly pulled back as profit-taking concentrated. High volatility and elasticity, quick hands needed.
**XRP:** Today’s standout (+5.28% to 1.44), payment/RWA narrative funds are seeking more elastic targets, boosted by compliance expectations. BNB rose 4.17% to 722, platform coin following normally without anomalies.
---
**4️⃣ Sector Quick Review**
**Strong:** Stablecoins/payment concepts — A-share stablecoin sector saw multiple stocks hit daily limits within 10 minutes of open, Hong Kong’s Boya Interactive surged 11%, funds are searching for a "crypto + compliant payment" narrative breakthrough; RWA/XRP ecosystem — leading mainstream, driven by dual compliance expectations; AI concept — OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra stimulus, but crypto AI projects’ follow-up is limited.
**Weak:** Meme coins — funds prioritize returning to mainstream during rebound, Meme lacks elasticity, funds are risk-averse, not gambling; Old DeFi protocols — TVL shows no significant change, funds rotate to new narratives, not repairing old sectors.
**Capital Intent:** Holding mainstream for risk aversion + probing payment/RWA new narratives, typical "risk appetite recovering but no all-in".
---
**5️⃣ Liquidations and Capital Flow**
24h network-wide liquidations about $450-500 million, over 96,000 people liquidated, shorts liquidated over $400 million accounting for 80%+ — classic short squeeze style. BTC liquidations $175 million, ETH $82.36 million. Funding rates remain positive (Gate +0.0051%), longs are crowded but not extreme. USDT net outflow $162 million, some funds took profits during rebound.
**Sentiment Judgment:** Quickly shifted from panic back to greed, but not extreme — many shorts died, longs haven’t yet ramped up leverage aggressively.
---
**6️⃣ Tomorrow’s Trading Tips**
① **Positioning:** Mainly hold, light positions at highs. Don’t chase above 82,000, lightly try longs on pullbacks to 80,000-80,500.
② **Leverage Advice:** Low leverage. Macro-driven volatility is large; tonight’s NFP release could flip direction immediately.
③ **Key Levels:**
- BTC support 79,500 / 77,000, resistance 82,300 / 84,000
- ETH support 2,400 / 2,380, resistance 2,550 / 2,650
- SOL support 98 / 95, resistance 108 / 112
④ **Key Event:** Tonight 20:30 (Beijing Time) US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) — the only data this week that can reverse rate hike expectations again. Employment below 80,000 favors continuation, above 80,000 warns of expectation reversal.
⑤ **Core Risk:** Waller’s dovishness is conditional; August CPI and NFP are not out yet, 63% hike probability can return anytime. Those chasing longs today might be liquidated shorts tomorrow.
⑥ **Golden Quote:** Waller’s dovish voice saved BTC’s life, but the NFP guillotine hasn’t dropped — this rebound is borrowed time, don’t treat it as a trend.
---
⚠️ Risk Warning: This content is only market information and analysis, not investment advice. The virtual currency market is highly risky, participate cautiously.
📊 Data update time: 2026-09-04 13:00 (Beijing Time)
📡 Data sources: CoinGlass, Binance, CoinMarketCap, Jinse Finance, Feixiaohao#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
$BTC $ETH brothers, hit follow, don’t get lost!
【Data conflict? US August ISM Services PMI surged to 55.4, but ADP employment increased by only 38,000】
In August, the US ISM Services PMI jumped to 55.4, expected 54.3, previous 54.1, the highest since April, and 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line.
In June and July, it fluctuated narrowly around 54, but in August it rose directly, indicating that service sector activity remains resilient, with expansion momentum warming compared to June-July.
However, the employment side is cooling: ADP shows private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest since January, significantly below expectations.
So the current picture is: strong service demand/activity + labor market slowdown coexist. This is very important for the Fed—current policy rate is around 3.75%, the economy isn’t softening quickly, but employment is cooling. The market previously thought “weak jobs → increased certainty of policy shift,” but this PMI weakens that single-line logic. Before the September FOMC, the last major data is this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, followed by inflation data. Simply put: PMI adds points for “growth resilience.”
Asset implications: Short-term US Treasury rate cut pricing may fluctuate, the dollar has support, US stock sentiment is sensitive to interest rates; if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are also weak, the market will reprice easing, but if inflation/wages remain sticky, rebound space will be limited. #沃勒：8月通胀将成为9月政策的重要依据 Waller’s message is clear: if August inflation keeps cooling, the Fed may have less reason to tighten further. But if prices accelerate again, a September hike could come back into focus. For $BTC, that’s bullish—but not a guarantee. 📌 Why? The market is shifting from “more hikes ahead” to “maybe no further tightening.” That reduces pressure on risk assets, but no hike ≠ rate cuts. The real bullish catalyst would be evidence that inflation is falling enough to support futur$BTC $ETH $SOL This morning BTC pierced back to 81,000 with a single spike, ETH stood above 2,500. It wasn’t retail investors buying up; it was short positions being brutally squeezed by the interest rate hike expectations reversal. Once Waller loosened his tone, the September rate hike probability dropped from 60% to 50%, US Treasury yields reversed, and $440 million worth of shorts were liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with BTC single-coin liquidations at $270 million.
In terms of price action, 80,000 has turned from resistance into support, but the 82-83K range is the trapped zone from late August. Without volume to break through, it’s considered a rebound, not a reversal. On the leverage side, almost all naked shorts have been washed out; now the orders hanging are new long chasers, funding rates just turned positive. If the non-farm payrolls tonight come in hot, the longs will be just as fragile under the pressure. Looking at the cycle, the daily chart has reclaimed the mid-range, the 4-hour is overbought, short-term profit-taking is underway, and mid-term depends on whether CPI and FOMC provide stimulus. Sentiment greed is at 65, not crazy yet, but don’t mistake a short squeeze for a trend — this rally profits from macro expectation gaps, not on-chain incremental money. #比特币再破80000美元 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $TRIA Today it surged sharply, rising nearly 20%, reaching a high of 0.004954, then pulling back to around 0.00462. The candlestick is almost a vertical rally, pushing up from around 0.00357, with a very strong short-term structure. Data changes are even more exciting. In the last few hours, open interest exploded, with nominal value doubling and reaching a peak above 300 million. This rally speed clearly shows concentrated funds entering the market. But the long-short account ratio dropped quickly, falling from the high and now back to around 1.94. The price is soaring, but the short account ratio is rapidly rising. On one hand, real money is pushing; on the other, bears are planting mines at high levels. This kind of divergence is common during new coins or small-cap surges; afterwards, either keep squeezing the short price upward or quickly pull back as sentiment retreats. My own judgment is quite straightforward: short-term momentum is indeed strong, and open interest is surging, so a further upward trend is not impossible. But the current position has already rebounded significantly from the low, and the bears are deeply buried, so the risk of chasing higher has clearly increased. For coins with this kind of vertical rally, the biggest worry is that subsequent funds won't catch up. If open interest can continue to rise and the price holds above 0.0046, there is still room to surge. Once open interest starts to reverse and the long-short ratio continues to move toward extreme bearishness, the pullback speed could be very rapid. My current attitude is: you can keep an eye on it, but I won't heavily chase at this level. I would rather wait for a decent pullback or a significant change in open interestThe Hugging Face headline is big. The more interesting signal is what NVDA does with it. NVIDIA’s roughly $13B Hugging Face acquisition pushes the company deeper into the AI software/open-model stack. That strengthens the long-term AI ecosystem story. But traders should separate fundamental strength from immediate price confirmation. At $230.51, NVDA is sitting right where buyers need to prove they can absorb supply. A headline-driven move that stalls here would tell me the catalyst is already b"Just raised one billion, prediction leader pivots to perpetual contracts"
Polymarket, a prediction giant valued at over twenty billion that just secured a massive one billion dollar funding, suddenly switched to high-leverage contracts.
In the past, people treated event prediction as an on-chain money printer, but this kind of trading essentially requires moving to a new place after one shot. Whether it's an election or an interest rate cut, once the result lands, the liquidity pool is immediately drained, and the platform can't retain long-term funds.
The newly launched trading system directly maxes out leverage at 20x. Besides mainstream cryptocurrencies, it also offers perpetual contracts with no expiration for crude oil, gold, and unlisted commercial aerospace equity, with hourly automatic funding fee settlements.
To avoid the strict US regulatory clampdown, this high-leverage model blocks all North American users, competing only in overseas markets for offshore large capital derivative liquidity.
When event betting traffic hits a ceiling, top platforms collectively return to the main battlefield of perpetual contracts. $BTC The Fear and Greed Index has recently returned to the greed zone, with readings around 63–65.
This basically coincides with the recent decline in US Treasury yields and a rebound in risk appetite. Some real-time indicators have even reached higher greed readings.
However, I feel this data is now more suitable for confirming sentiment rather than confirming a trend.
Because an index rise only indicates the market is willing to take on more risk.
It doesn't tell you that BTC will definitely continue to rise next.
What really matters is whether, after sentiment turns greedy, the price can continue to hit new highs, and whether volume and spot funds keep up.
If the price rises, sentiment heats up, and funds continue to flow in, then the trend is gradually being confirmed.
If only the index surges first, but the price starts to consolidate or weaken, then caution is needed.
The market is most prone to problems not when no one believes, but when everyone starts to believe.
$BTC Long and Short Crowding List
First find the side with the heaviest fees, then check if the price and positions have rewarded it.
$CAP current rate -0.2873%, settled -1.649% in the past 24 hours, at the 4th percentile of recent samples. Reduced positions after a 15-minute drop; the clearest current signals are position exits and deleveraging. Position contraction first weakens crowding; no rush to attribute now, focus on price level after deleveraging ends.
$CHIP current rate -0.0191%, settled -0.086% in the past 24 hours, at the 7th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions rise synchronously, confirming that risk exposure expands with the rise. Shorts are still paying fees, but price and open interest rise together; currently confirmed is short pressure, not that the short squeeze is complete.
$EDGE current rate +0.0100%, settled -0.038% in the past 24 hours, at the 94th percentile of recent samples. The rise is not accompanied by position withdrawals; new positions have participated, but continuation depends on subsequent price response. The cost direction has reversed; if price responds but open interest remains flat, it looks more like sentiment repricing rather than a new trend.BTC recovers the 80,000 level, tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will set the direction
BTC violently rebounded 5% overnight to above 81,000, reaching a high of 81,437.
📊 Market Analysis:
The catalyst comes from two things: Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed a tendency to keep rates unchanged in September, with the probability of a rate hike falling from 70%; the US dollar index dropped below 99, the yen strengthened to 155, and risk assets collectively rallied.
But the real judgment is at 20:30 tonight with the Nonfarm Payrolls. The market expects an increase of 50,000 to 80,000, previous value was -23,000. ADP only increased by 38,000, causing bears to hesitate. If the data exceeds expectations (above 80,000), the 80,000 level is unlikely to hold, possibly dropping back to 76,000 or even 73,500; if below 30,000, the rate hike expectations will further ease, opening a rebound window.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 79,000-80,000
🔴 Resistance: 81,400-81,700
⚠️ Risk level: 76,000
🧠 My thinking: Hold the base position. The market has already priced in "Nonfarm will be very poor," if the data just meets expectations, it may "exhaust the good news" and pull back after a spike. Do not chase highs, wait for the data to land before deciding.
⛔ Risk reminder: Data is temporary, direction is long-term. Don't fall to the scattered shots tonight.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Waller's speech conveyed three levels of information:
Dovish tone: As a previously hawkish board member, he clearly stated a "tendency to keep interest rates unchanged," marking a substantial shift in stance.
But the door to rate hikes is not closed: He deliberately reserved the option to "raise rates if inflation overheats," emphasizing that "not much inflation acceleration" is needed to pivot. This is a conditional dovish stance.
August CPI is the sole referee: Waller simplified the decision logic to "inflation steadily moving toward 2% = maintain rates; inflation exceeding expectations = rate hike." The CPI data on September 11 will directly determine the final outcome of the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.Family, after the initial claims data came out last night, the market immediately surged on speculation.
206,000, still stuck at historical lows, with continuing claims slightly rising to 1.779 million. Putting this data together, it doesn't paint a picture of "rate cut benefits" but rather the Fed's biggest headache: a "zombie state" — companies would rather hold on than lay off employees, while completely shutting the door on new hires amid uncertainty. No hiring, no firing, frozen.
On-exchange funds fell into blind optimism, seeing a slight rise in unemployment data and dovish statements, algorithmic traders started betting early that the Fed would back down, BTC surged, and crypto concept stocks were also pushed higher.
But my judgment on this rally is clear — it's purely macro arbitrage exploiting expectation gaps to capture liquidity premiums, completely detached from fundamentals. The market is betting that a softening labor market will force a policy shift, but it overlooks the most fatal risk — as long as the layoff wave hasn't erupted, the tight labor balance will continue to underpin sticky inflation. Signs of stagflation will only put the Fed in a dilemma, making large-scale easing impossible and preventing a full relaxation.
On-chain chip structure also speaks volumes: the rally is driven entirely by derivative short liquidations and passive leverage funds pushing prices up; whales have not built large positions but are instead transferring chips to exchanges amid the liquidity rebound.
The upcoming non-farm payrolls will be the real battlefield. Once data fluctuates or sticky inflation forces the Fed to remain hawkish, these high-leverage positions built on the "rate cut illusion" will be instantly liquidated in a chain reaction. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Last fall, I got hooked on chasing altcoin seasons, checking the gainers list every day to find coins that suddenly shoot straight up.
Once I saw a coin jump 40 points in five minutes, and on a whim, I jumped in, but it started dropping right after I bought.
Later I learned that’s called a “paint door,” a trick to harvest fools like me who rush in at the sight of a green candle.
I held that position for three days, lost 30 points, and cut my losses, only to see it bounce back the next day.
I was so mad I threw my phone on the couch, picked it up, and kept watching the market—classic case of forgetting the pain after the wound heals.
After that, I chased a few more times and noticed a pattern: the coins pumped over the weekend get slammed hard on Monday.
Because market makers don’t work weekends, project teams can push prices up with some money, then dump after retail investors buy in.
I specifically tracked over a dozen of these weekend pump coins; none held their highs a week later.
Since then, I made a rule: no small-cap coins on weekends, just hold the big coins and watch the show.
If I really can’t resist, I use a demo account to chase—losing virtual points doesn’t hurt.
Once I chased a 10x coin on a demo account and got super excited, but in reality, I stayed out of the market.
That taught me those get-rich-quick stories might happen, but when it’s my turn, I’m usually the bag holder.
Now, I pick small coins by one standard: whether they have real running applications.
Even if it’s a simple game or tool, as long as people use it, I’m willing to try with some $SOL.
If the official site has no product, just a bunch of roadmaps and advisor photos, I swipe away immediately.
Last month, I tried a storage-type small coin with real users, held for three weeks, made 20 points, and exited.
Not much, but way more solid than chasing those paint door coins—at least I know what I’m betting on.
The rest of my portfolio is still big coins and second-tier coins, with $BTC and $ETH making up 70%, rock solid.
Sometimes I buy new stuff with small profits; if I lose, it’s no big deal; if I win, it’s like a market bonus.
I still check the gainers list when I open it, but my mindset is like shopping at a market—just ask the price and leave, no rush to spend.
Yesterday, I saw another weekend pump coin, the chat was buzzing loudly, I sipped my tea and closed the page.
Today is Monday, and sure enough, that coin dropped back to the starting point, and the chat’s cheers turned into sighs.
I quietly added another entry to my record, then went on with my day. #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
Oil prices have consecutively broken through the $90, $95, and $100 thresholds. The real danger is not "more expensive gasoline," but inflation data exceeding 2% for six consecutive months, combined with the ongoing Horn of Hormuz conflict burning for half a year, turning the "supply shock" into "inflation expectations solidification."
After half a year of war, the inflation logic is changing. Since the conflict began at the end of February, the market's initial expectation of a "short-term supply shock" is evolving into sustained structural pressure. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that if inflation does not sufficiently decline, decisive rate hikes are necessary; Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that since this is a supply shock, rate hikes should not be made lightly; Fed Chair Powell's stance is ambiguous, but the market has interpreted his "global investment wave" comment as a sign that high interest rates may persist longer. Powell emphasized at Jackson Hole that if inflation does not fall quickly enough, the Fed "still has work to do."
The market has already priced this in. The bet on a Fed rate hike in September has jumped from 34% to 65%. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5%, and Japan's 10-year government bond has hit 3% for the first time in 30 years. The surge in oil prices combined with the bond market collapse places the Fed at a difficult crossroads in September, where "raising or not raising rates is hard." The August CPI data released on September 11 will be the final tipping point.$BTC has reclaimed $80,000, but this time I'm focusing less on the price increase.
BTC has reclaimed $80,000, even briefly reaching around $82,100.
However, what I think is truly worth watching today is not how much BTC has risen again, but that as the price rises, capital flows and the macro environment are also aligning.
On September 3rd, the US BTC spot ETF saw a clear net inflow again; at the same time, Waller's remarks eased market concerns about further rate hikes in September, and US stocks strengthened in tandem.
This is different from just a technical-driven rally.
BTC's major moves usually come from shifts in liquidity, not just day-to-day price changes.
So I am now more inclined to believe that this rebound reclaiming $80,000 is of better quality than a simple technical bounce.
But one day of capital inflow is not enough to confirm a mid-term trend.
What we really need to watch next is whether ETF capital can continue flowing in, and whether BTC can truly hold above $80,000.
If these two signals continue to align, the significance of this $80,000 level will be completely different.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC pulled back… but what if the money didn’t actually leave crypto? 👀
$BTC is hovering around $77K, while $ETH is holding relatively strong near $2.4K.
And one thing really caught my attention:
BTC ETFs are seeing outflows, while ETH ETFs are still attracting inflows.
That’s interesting.
Because maybe this isn’t simply “money leaving crypto.”
Maybe it’s money rotating within crypto.
Capital could be moving away from BTC and looking for the next opportunity in ETH.
#DailyOrbit $CORE
Warning⚠⚠⚠
Now making a bold prediction, just a prediction. Hopefully, it remains a prediction and does not become reality. The main reason for the repeated delays in deposit and withdrawal issues is that the project team fears an influx of too many tokens into exchanges leading to sell-offs. The actions of the project team over the past few years have been obvious to all, so they keep delaying. On one hand, they are trying to resolve the issue of the over 300 million tokens recently issued. They verbally claim to have burned 150 million, which they say is 50%, but whether the burn is real or fake remains unknown. Then there was an urgent hard fork, turning one coin into two coins 😀😀. If one coin turns into ten coins, it would be even less valuable. If the main coin is like this, the sub-coins will definitely be worse. Everything done is just to stabilize the market. From this, it can be inferred that even if the deposit and withdrawal functions are opened this afternoon, large deposits will likely be restricted, only allowing a small amount of tokens to flow into exchanges. Large token holdings by retail investors will not be easily allowed. Many major mainstream exchanges removed the earning function for core coins a few days ago, listing it as a high-risk coin. Next, they may gradually remove leverage trading, then spot trading, and finally completely delist it from major exchanges. If large amounts are restricted, it will once again confirm the project team's sinister behavior!True bridge-less trading has arrived: The cross-chain trading paradigm may undergo reconstruction. Some projects have announced the realization of true bridge-less trading, but the announcement has not yet disclosed specific technical solutions, supported chains, or participants. Bridge-less means users can complete cross-chain asset exchanges without depositing assets into traditional cross-chain bridge contracts, usually relying on intent transactions, solver networks, or inter-chain messaging protocols to complete matching and settlement. Cross-chain bridges have long been one of the riskiest components in multi-chain ecosystems. Traditional bridges mostly use lock-mint or unified liquidity pool models, with huge amounts of cross-chain assets locked in bridge contracts. Once private keys are leaked or contracts have vulnerabilities, losses often amount to hundreds of millions of dollars. Historically, the Ronin bridge theft of about $620 million, the Wormhole theft of about $320 million, and abnormal fund outflows from Multichain have all caused severe impacts on their ecosystems, making de-bridging an important evolution direction at the infrastructure layer. So-called bridge-less trading does not literally eliminate cross-chain operations but means users do not need to operate bridge contracts themselves: orders are expressed as intents, and market makers, solvers, or relay networks advance funds and complete exchanges on the target chain first, then settle on the source chain through inter-chain messages or atomic settlement. The promotion of products like UniswapX, CoW Protocol, and Across has gradually popularized the experience of signing to execute and receiving assets directly on the target chain. Its core benefits lie in reducing bridge contract exposure risk, simplifying operation paths, and improving capital efficiency. This announcement currently only emphasizes the expression of true bridge-less trading and has not yet disclosed... Bitcoin just ran almost $5,000 in one session from the $77,000 area to a $82,300 high then eased back toward $81,000. This market is not confident. It is repricing September hike odds from above 60% toward ~50% after Waller and a weak 38,000 ADP print. The 10-year yield slipped off 4.82%. Roughly $415 million in shorts were liquidated. Fear & Greed jumped to ~74. Tonight, 19:30 Vietnam time, August NFP hits. One number can give yesterday’s candle back. Here’s the rotation… 🟢 Strong $BTC $XRP #特斯拉股价走强，无人出租车成焦点 Analyst Xiaoxin: This recent increase of nearly 50 tons in gold holdings is not retail investors just making noise.
SPDR added 9.98 tons in a single day on September 2, totaling nearly 50 tons since August. This scale is not a casual move; institutions are treating gold as a base allocation.
However, before tonight's 8:30 PM non-farm payrolls, I lean towards this nearly 10-ton increase being a "buying on expectations" action, not a mindless chase of the rally. Implied volatility on the options side has already shown a short-term inversion, indicating that capital is pricing in the non-farm data in advance—fearing the data might be too hot or the dollar might suddenly spike.
The mid-term logic remains unchanged: central bank gold purchases, U.S. Treasury credit discounts, and marginal declines in real interest rates—all three factors are supporting gold prices. $XAU is not a comfortable entry point above 4400 in the short term; after the non-farm data hits, the 4320-4350 range is where to look for support.
My rhythm is clear: wait until after 8:30 PM to see if it’s a false breakout or a real pullback. Only act when the levels are reached; do not use mid-term positions to gamble on half-hour volatility.
The market trends for $BTC and $ETH have been mentioned in previous updates. Keep watching the 79000 level for Bitcoin; don’t overthink it before it breaks. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Robinhood Chain ecosystem token VOXEL surpassed $8 million in market cap within two days of launch, surging over 170 times in 24 hours. On September 4, according to GMGN data, the liquidity aggregation protocol VOXEL on Robinhood Chain surpassed $8 million in market cap just two days after launch, surging more than 170 times in the past 24 hours with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $8.9 million. VOXEL is the ecosystem token of Voxelithic Protocol deployed on Robinhood Chain, positioned as an on-chain liquidity aggregation protocol designed to aggregate and route on-chain liquidity. Just two days after launch, the token's market cap surpassed $8 million, with a 24-hour increase of over 170 times and a 24-hour trading volume of about $8.9 million, showing clear signs of short-term speculative capital participation. From a mechanism perspective, early tokens in the new chain ecosystem often have small circulating supply, concentrated chips, and low market capitalization, allowing small amounts of capital to drive sharp price swings. This is also the structural reason why VOXEL has experienced a hundredfold surge in a short period. As a product of traditional brokerage giants extending into the on-chain ecosystem, Robinhood Chain's early ecosystem projects naturally attract market attention and speculative capital. VOXEL's short-term performance is a microcosm of this speculative enthusiasm in the new chain ecosystem. However, it is important to clearly recognize that tokens with extremely short launch times and extreme price increases have prices andSaudi crude oil exports have fallen to multi-year lows, yet the biggest fear for oil prices is this kind of "it's not that production capacity is insufficient, but that it can't be transported out".
The market usually talks about crude oil by looking at OPEC, inventories, and demand. But this time it feels more like a logistics issue: whether ships can sail, whether insurance is expensive, whether shipping lanes are stable, and whether customers dare to take delivery. As soon as these links start to have problems, the paper supply capacity will be discounted.
This is especially troublesome for inflation. Oil prices are not just a single candlestick; they transmit through transportation, chemicals, aviation, and food costs all the way. Even if prices spike briefly and then fall back, companies will first factor in the risk premium.
The most frustrating moment in the energy market is when everyone clearly knows there is oil, but it's uncertain whether this barrel of oil can arrive on time, cheaply, and safely.
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, once approaching $81,400 intraday, marking its strongest daily performance since May. The driving forces are the global bond yield decline and the market's easing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, creating a more favorable macro environment for risk assets. However, price recovery does not equate to a full rotation; the true signal from the altcoin market has yet to emerge. Capital flows provide clear evidence: Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $100 million in net inflows in a single day, while Ethereum and Ripple-related ETFs shifted from continuous inflows to net outflows, and Solana products also turned negative. Institutional funds have not exited but are choosing to concentrate bets on leading assets rather than spreading evenly across the market. The focus should be on relative strength. If Ethereum begins to consistently outperform Bitcoin, it will be the first meaningful rotation signal; subsequently, Solana, Ripple, and BNB need to maintain upward momentum. Beyond that, the real test lies in higher-risk sectors—if Sui, Aptos, Avalanche, NEAR, and Sei show sustained volume increases, it indicates traders are indeed willing to move further along the risk curve. DeFi can serve as another confirmation. Aave, Uni, Curve, and Pendle showing only bullish candles is insufficient; substantial improvements in liquidity and on-chain activity are more convincing. On the infrastructure side, Chainlink and Ondo carry institutional and RWA narratives, while the trends of Arbitrum and Optimism reflect whether Layer2 is regaining favor.Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Wash signaled a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in September jumping from 35% to 66%, causing London gold to plunge nearly 3%. Over the weekend, the US military airstruck Iran, and early today Iran launched heavy missiles at US forces. International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude breaking through $90. Geopolitical conflicts should have boosted safe-haven demand and pushed gold prices up, but instead triggered a negative transmission: "oil price rise → inflation concerns → stronger rate hike expectations → gold price drop." Gold not only failed to rise but was hit even harder.
This is not a failure of safe-haven logic, but rather the core contradiction in the current gold market repeatedly tugging between safe-haven attributes, interest rate pricing, and credit pricing. Compared to geopolitical risks, capital is more concerned about the opportunity cost of holding gold, and rate hike expectations continue to suppress gold prices. With multiple forces at play, is a buy signal for gold emerging? Let's take a look!
"Hawkish" signal → rising rate hike expectations
Federal Reserve Chair Wash sent a strong signal at the global central bank annual meeting, with the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to about 66%. This fire first burned the interest-free asset gold.
On one hand, rate hike expectations directly pushed up US Treasury yields; the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75% as of August 31, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, naturally reducing its investment appeal. On the other hand, the US dollar index strengthened simultaneously, and since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar means other currencies must pay more to buy gold, further pressuring demand.
Simply put, higher interest rates make gold "expensive" on the cost side, and a stronger dollar makes it "expensive" on the price side. What the $BTC market really needs to confirm is not a rebound, but liquidity
Today, the market showed a change worth noting.
The stablecoin outflows that had persisted for months have recently turned back to net inflows.
But this signal cannot yet be simply interpreted as:
"The bull market is back."
Because funds returning to stablecoins do not mean that money has already been invested in risk assets.
It’s more like telling us:
The "ammunition" in the market is increasing.
At the same time, BTC has returned to around $78K, and the global crypto market cap has also risen back to about $2.8T. (CoinDesk)
So what’s really worth watching next is not how much BTC rises on any given day.
But whether these data points can improve simultaneously:
Stablecoin Supply ↑
Exchange Balances ↑
Spot Volume ↑
On-chain Activity ↑
ETF Flows ↑
If stablecoins continue to increase, while spot volume, on-chain activity, and ETF inflows improve in sync,
then that is closer to a true:
Liquidity Expansion
Conversely, if stablecoins increase but trading volume, users, and on-chain activity do not keep up,
then this may just mean funds are staying in a "waiting area."
There is also an easily overlooked variable:
Regulation.
The US SEC recently proposed a new "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework, attempting to establish a clearer securities issuance path for some crypto-related investment contracts. (Securities and Exchange Commission)
This means crypto is undergoing two things simultaneously:
Short term: funds are searching for direction again.
Long term: industry infrastructure is being redefined.
So what I care about now is not:
"Will BTC go up or down next?"
But rather:
Has liquidity returned?
Has money truly entered risk assets?
Have users come back?
Has on-chain activity recovered?
Is regulation lowering the barriers to industry entry?
Price is the surface of the market.
Liquidity is the real fuel of the market.
#Crypto #OnChain #Liquidity #Stablecoins #DeFi #ETF #RWALast year I started keeping a trading journal—not some formal review report, just casually jotting down my emotions and reasons for each trade.
Flipping to the first page, it says "Felt like it would rise, chased it," followed by a crying face emoji. That trade lost twenty points.
A few pages later, I saw similar notes: "Everyone in the group said it was good, so I followed," but it ended up being a peak trap again.
That's when I realized the mistakes I make are basically the same ones, just repeated with different coins.
For example, I always can't resist rushing in when I see a sudden spike late at night, thinking I can catch the second wave.
But the journal clearly shows that in the past six months, this kind of move had less than a 20% success rate, with losses far outweighing gains.
Also, every time the price drops, I panic and hastily cut losses, only to see a rebound the next day. The journal records seven such cases.
Looking at those messy handwriting notes, I suddenly felt like an amnesiac, waking up every day to step into the same traps again.
Since then, I've been writing the journal in more detail—not just prices and positions, but also my heartbeat and the weather outside.
One time I wrote, "It's cloudy today, feeling depressed, really want to close my position," but I held on, and the next day I broke even.
Looking back at that entry, I understood that when bad weather combines with bad mood, the best move is no move at all.
I even made a table categorizing each trade as chasing a rise, bottom fishing, or stop loss, then calculated the win rates.
Turns out chasing the rise had the lowest win rate, bottom fishing was a bit better, but the trades that actually made money were those placed in advance without watching the market.
This discovery made me switch most of my pending orders to limit orders—set them and forget them, no more constantly adjusting while staring at the screen.
Now every Sunday night, I spend ten minutes reviewing that week's journal, focusing on whether I've repeated any error patterns.
If I messed up by chasing a late-night spike again that week, I plan to leave my phone charging in the living room next week and not bring it into the bedroom.
These small adjustments are more useful than reading a hundred technical analysis articles because they target my own weaknesses.
Last month, I found an entry from three months ago that said, "This $BTC position looks good, but I don't dare to buy."
That happened to be a local bottom, and I missed out on a 20% gain due to hesitation, regretting it for days.
But the journal didn't blame me; it just plainly reminded me to be braver next time I see a similar signal.
Last week I encountered a similar setup again, and this time I decisively placed an order that got filled. I'm currently holding a floating profit and feeling steady.
I noted this act of courage in the journal and drew a little star next to it as a reward to myself.
As for $ETH, I record it the same way and found that I always get scared when it breaks previous highs, so this time I set a conditional order in advance.
Although it hasn't triggered yet, at least I handed my hesitation over to the machine, saving myself from overthinking.
The biggest gain from journaling isn't optimizing strategy, but seeing clearly what kind of person I am.
Timid, greedy, easily influenced by others—these are my nature. I can't change them but can prepare defenses in advance.
For example, knowing I'm easily swayed by group messages, I fold those messages and only check them at fixed times.
Knowing I'm greedy and don't take profits, I place take-profit and stop-loss orders together; if they fill, they fill—no regrets.
Now my journal entries are getting shorter because repeated mistakes are decreasing, and my mindset is much calmer.
Sometimes I write, "No trades today, mood stable," and feel like the day wasn't wasted.
Looking back at that journal, it doesn't feel like an investment log but more like a self-observation diary.
But it's precisely these notes that have saved me a lot of real money in tuition fees.
Tonight I opened the notebook again and wrote, "Rainy day, one order filled, executing as planned."
When I closed the notebook, the rain just stopped, and that gave me more peace of mind than any get-rich-quick story.
This habit of journaling is something I think I'll keep forever—even if I stop trading, I can use it elsewhere.
After all, understanding yourself is much harder than reading candlesticks, and far more valuable.
Alright, back to the drawer with the notebook. Tonight, I can finally sleep soundly. BTC holds above 81,000, so I'm actually not afraid of tonight's non-farm payrolls: the real thunder might come next week
BTC is still leaning bullish now, but I won't treat tonight's non-farm payrolls as the only decisive battle.
The mainstream market logic is simple: if employment is weak tonight, the Fed will find it harder to raise rates, and BTC will continue to rise; if employment is strong, BTC will pull back.
But I think this logic is a bit oversimplified.
Yesterday, Fed Governor Waller made it very clear: he expects employment data won't significantly deviate from recent trends, and what will truly influence his September decision is the upcoming August inflation.
This statement is crucial.
Because the current issue isn't how bad employment is, but whether inflation has really come down.
The US August service sector input price index has already risen to 72.6, while Brent crude oil is around $95.7, up more than 7% this week.
In other words, the Fed is now facing not "weak employment = safe to turn dovish," but a more troublesome combination:
Employment is starting to cool down, but energy and service price pressures remain.
Meanwhile, BTC has already returned to around $81,000, and the market's probability of a September rate hike has dropped from about 63% to 50%.
So I believe yesterday's rally has already priced in part of the "Fed is not that hawkish."The United States has taken majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil
Damn, this is really putting the energy card on the table!
This is pretty intense
The US and Venezuela have reached an oil agreement
The US, through cooperation with private enterprises,
has obtained majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves
Involving 17 oil fields
The White House calls this a major expansion of the US energy strategy
Even more badass is
The US also acquired 35% equity in the related companies
And holds the priority right to purchase oil
Damn, is the US preparing to directly solve the oil problem?
To put it simply
This time the US is not just buying a few barrels of oil
They are directly taking the steering wheel of the oil fields
And now global oil prices are already suffering due to Middle East turmoil
If Venezuela really ramps up production again in the future
It will definitely be a major variable in global crude oil supply
But don’t get too excited yet
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has lacked investment for years
Heavy crude oil extraction, transportation, and refining are not processes that can be turned on with the push of a button
It’s all a mess
The US Secretary of Energy has also proposed
That Venezuelan heavy oil might help replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve through oil swaps
So the key is still
Whether the US can really turn those 65 billion barrels of reserves
Into oil flowing out every day
If they really pull it off
The global energy landscape will have to be reshuffled again As the market warms up, activity has picked up as well.
But today, besides watching the overall market, I specifically looked at OKB.
It rose about 2.2% in 24 hours, which is a welcome recovery, but this performance is still not enough for me to call it an "independent trend." For now, I prefer to see it as following the market's recovery, and it still needs to prove itself going forward.
Honestly, I do hope it rises faster. But I can't just attribute every bullish candle to some major positive news because I'm optimistic.
The reason OKB keeps my attention is still its relationship with X Layer.
What really needs to be asked is: how much sustained demand can ecosystem development ultimately bring to OKB?
More projects and lively trading are certainly good things. But there's a big gap between users needing some OKB to pay fees and users willing to hold large amounts of OKB long-term. Even if OKX's business performs well, it doesn't directly translate to OKB holders sharing in the profits.
This is what I care about most now: the supply story has been made clear, but demand still needs to deliver results.
In the short term, I'll watch whether OKB can hold onto this gain when the market pulls back; later, I'll see if X Layer can retain users and capital, not just generate hype during some event. If these don't keep up, ecosystem expectations will in turn suppress the price.
OKB will have a better environment to realize its potential, but I won't take this rebound as fulfillment just yet.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 $OKB $BTC #比特币再破80000美元
The leader has something to say
BTC has risen above 80,000 again. The cooling of rate hike expectations and the decline in US Treasury yields gave it a boost. ETF net inflows in August reached 3.5 billion, but starting from early September, there has been two-way volatility, and institutions have not formed sustained momentum.
Yi Lihua expects 86,000, while Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position at 82,050. Both sides' judgments indicate that the 80,000 to 82,500 range faces considerable resistance. Bitwise data supports BTC moving with gold, with correlation reaching the highest since 2020, as funds shift toward non-sovereign assets.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Whether the 80,000 level can hold depends on the upcoming volume support and macro data. Do not chase the rapid rise; wait for confirmation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.Good afternoon, BTC violently surged from around 76,000 at midnight, reaching a high of 82,285, currently fluctuating between 80,700-81,100. It has risen over 5% in 24 hours, marking the largest single-day increase since May 11.
Core drivers of the rise:
First, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released dovish signals, with the probability of a September rate hike falling from 63% to 52%. Second, geopolitical tensions have eased, with the US-Iran conflict temporarily paused, boosting risk appetite. Third, shorts were collectively crushed, with over $555 million liquidated in a single day across the network, forcing shorts to cover and further pushing prices up.
Note, tonight is the real test.
At 20:30 Beijing time, August non-farm payroll data will be released. The market expects an increase of 58,000 jobs, with the previous value at -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected at 4.1%. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed 56,000 and unemployment is below 4.1% → the dollar will strengthen, and BTC may retrace to 78,000-79,000; if non-farm payrolls are below 56,000 or even negative growth, and unemployment is above 4.1% → the dollar will weaken, and BTC is likely to challenge 82,500-83,000.
Technically, 82,300 is near the previous high, and 83,000 is a key resistance. On the downside, the 80,000 level has become the first support, with 78,500-79,000 as a stronger defense line.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Breaking: There may not be much time left for the Crypto "Clarity Act"! The situation really isn't looking good!!
┈➤ House of Representatives is pressed for time
The House has canceled votes for the two weeks of September 21 and September 28.
The House will start work on September 14, hold a 4-day session, then leave Washington to return to their states to campaign for the midterm elections, after all, House members can be re-elected indefinitely.
┈➤ Senate is wavering
The problem is, the Crypto "Clarity Act" is currently stuck in the Senate, and the Senate's version is different from the House's.
So at the earliest, it requires: Senate pre-vote (procedural vote) passage, Senate formal vote passage, and then the House voting again to approve the Senate's version.
If the procedural vote passes, there may still be formal debates and possibly amendments. After the Senate vote passes, it is uncertain whether the House will make further changes.
From September 15 to September 18, there are only 4 days left; the time left for the Crypto "Clarity Act" is really limited.
┈➤ An even bigger issue is the Democrats might retake both chambers
An even bigger issue is that current media polls, including Polymarket's market, show the Democrats' support rate is higher than the Republicans'.
If the Democrats retake both chambers, especially the Senate, then whether the Crypto "Clarity Act" can pass is really uncertain...Fundamental Research Report $NEAR / NEAR Protocol (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Core Judgment: NEAR Protocol ($NEAR) comprehensive score 62/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: NEAR Protocol (token $NEAR), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on sharded public chain and AI narrative. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $587.6K, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): circulating market cap NEAR Protocol $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV NEAR Protocol $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue NEAR Protocol $587.6K, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users NEAR Protocol undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 5105.1x, FDV divided by revenue 7147.1x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Ultimately: fundamentals solid (score 62/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overdraws expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitSOL is very likely to hover around 100 this week. The current price is around 102 or 103, and 100 is the key short-term level everyone is watching. If it holds, the market will still be willing to look upward; if it breaks below, support between 94 and 90 will be tested.
Liquidity is a bit thin over the weekend, so it's normal to fluctuate between 98 and 105. Don't expect a sudden surge or crash during the weekend. The real highlight is next Wednesday, the 9th, when Transaction V1 upgrades. The capacity for a single transaction will increase several times, which is a solid positive for developers and demands like cross-chain and ZK. The news itself isn't explosive, but if the overall market sentiment is decent, it could easily be used as an excuse for an upward move.
The fundamentals aren't bad: ETF funds are still flowing in, institutional positions remain, on-chain application revenue was still number one last month, and RWA is also seeing inflows. Technically, many are drawing a descending wedge; if it breaks out, the mid-term target could be as high as 120 or even 150, but that's for later. The more realistic range this week is to first digest the August rebound and see if 100 holds.
Don't forget the macro environment: when interest rate expectations change, altcoins are often more sensitive than Bitcoin. So, in the short term, don't bet on sharp rises or falls; focus on consolidation and watch reactions to news day by day, which is more reliable $SOL 🚨 The Fed Just Shifted Bitcoin’s Macro Setup Bitcoin’s macro backdrop changed in just a few hours. Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that he could support keeping rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to ease. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike expectations dropping from around 63% to 48%. That shift matters. A rate hike would mean tighter financial conditions, more pressure on risk assets, and potentially less liquidity for speculative markets. A pause takes some oWill there be a rate hike in September? $BTC still has to get through this hurdle
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Waller made the conditions very clear this time: if inflation continues to cool down, he leans toward maintaining interest rates; if August inflation heats up again, he would consider supporting a rate hike. Note, this is his personal judgment and he has not promised a rate cut. Original Fed statement
So is this good news for BTC?
I think it is, but you need to know what exactly you’re happy about. Previously, the concern was that rates would keep rising; now there’s a possibility they won’t, so capital can be less pessimistic. But “not tightening further” and “starting to ease” have very different impacts on the market later, and can’t be treated the same.
So rather than just focusing on the non-farm payrolls, I’m more concerned about the August CPI released on September 11. Waller himself has said his policy judgment will largely depend on August inflation.
If employment cools but prices rise again, the Fed will still be in a tough spot. At that point, simply interpreting the market as “the economy is bad, so there definitely won’t be a rate hike” is a risky oversimplification.
This rebound can be optimistic, but for a more solid rise later, we still need price data to help. If inflation can truly continue to decline, the reasons for capital to chase gains will be stronger; treating no rate hike in September as a done deal now is somewhat premature.BlackRock and other ETFs have just purchased $730.87 million worth of $BTC — marking the 3rd largest single-day inflow so far in 2025.
Institutional capital is flowing back in. After months of sideways movement and macro uncertainty, the big players are starting to position again. This is not retail FOMO — it’s structured capital allocation from pensions, endowments, and asset managers: they move slowly but with large sums.
Focus on three key points next:
1. Momentum of inflows — if this continues for more than a week, what we may be seeing is a trend reversal rather than a one-off rebalancing event
2. Correlation with risk-on assets — if $BTC is rising while stocks remain flat or decline, it usually means it is decoupling and being treated again as a macro hedge
3. Funding rates and leverage — institutional inflows are mainly spot-driven, but if retail starts rushing in with leverage, we could see a sharp rally followed by a quick pullback/liquidation
The narrative is shifting from “crypto winter” to “institutional re-entry.” This doesn’t mean an immediate moon tomorrow, but it does mean the market structure is changing. Capital is patient — until it’s not.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Damn, on-chain data is really about which side you want to believe. I saw someone online who compiled three sets, and I was stunned for a while after reading them.
Staking queues for 36 days, like waiting in line at a popular restaurant. Over 4 million $ETH locked up, new money wants to get in but has to wait slowly. Looking at the small balance in my wallet, even if I wait forever, I won’t get a turn 🤡. The mainnet’s burn volume has dropped to just a fraction of what it used to be, burning 38 per day. So basically, no one is working on the mainnet anymore; everyone’s moved to L2.
Speaking of L2, that’s the real deal. Brother Robinhood Chain has daily fees of 3.75 million dollars, even more than the mainnet. But on the other hand, a small L2 announced it’s shutting down. I don’t quite remember the name, but withdrawals are only allowed until the end of the year. This ecosystem split is even bigger than the difference between slacking off and working hard at my job.
Anyway, I get it now. ETH isn’t a single narrative anymore: long staking queues, mainnet in power-saving mode, big L2s making money, small L2s running away. Four things happening at once. Just seeing the phrase "Ethereum is busy" easily misleads people. My 62500 order hasn’t even come out yet. In this structure, if anyone tells me it’s a sure win, I’ll argue with them. Real money is at stake, so be smart. Contracts are bets; don’t borrow money to play. If you lose, no one will cover for you. Have you queued for staking? I’m still wandering outside the door anyway 😅 #Waller Sends Dovish Signal: August Inflation May Be Key to September Rate Decision I am Ci Ge. Tonight at 8:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be released, which will be one of the important economic data points before the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. On September 3, Federal Reserve Governor Waller's remarks were noticeably more moderate than before. He stated that if inflation continues to cool according to recent trends, he tends to maintain the current interest rate level; however, if subsequent economic data is significantly strong, he does not rule out supporting further rate hikes. After the announcement, market bets on a September rate hike have clearly cooled, with the probability now falling to around 50%. From the employment market perspective, signs of cooling are ongoing. The market currently expects about 60,000 new nonfarm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate likely to remain around 4.1%. Previously, July nonfarm employment decreased by about 23,000, and May and June employment data were significantly revised downward. ADP data shows that private sector job additions in August were only about 38,000, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. In other words, the labor market has shown signs of slowing for several consecutive months. But the real determinant of the September monetary policy direction may not be tonight's nonfarm payrolls, but the US CPI to be released next week. Cooling employment means the Fed's rationale for continuing to tighten policy is weakening; however, if energy prices continue to rise, inflationary pressures could reemerge, which would affect the space for rate cuts or even maintaining rates unchanged. Currently, the market faces a tricky combination: cooling employment + inflation with recurring risks. Therefore, simplyWhen the London Stock Exchange made its move, there was no king on the board—only a row of bishops and pawns waiting to be labeled as "tokens."
The experience of a grandmaster tells me that the first move is often not a killing blow, but a probe. The London Stock Exchange announced a partnership with Payward to introduce UK-listed stocks into the tokenization game. The coordinates set on the board are wallets, on-chain infrastructure, and regulated market links; xStocks are scheduled to appear on LSE24 by 2027, while the first batch of London stocks will tentatively extend their reach within weeks. The seemingly complete new path has one wrinkle: the existing xStocks are merely 1:1 price trackers and do not constitute ownership of shares. I call them "pseudo-central pawns"—they appear to occupy the center of the market but actually lack control over the key squares on the king's flank.
True stock rights are an endgame that must be played through to the finish. Trading, settlement, voting, dividends—each step is like the horizontal and vertical lines on the chessboard; missing one invalidates the entire game. What London offers now is just a piece model that can display the game, not a living pawn that can truly promote. Equating price tracking with equity is like mistaking the spectator's gaze for the player's hand—no matter how clearly you see, you cannot move a speck of dust on the board.
Payward aims to list the top 100, with the first batch of London stocks debuting within weeks. This move is bold, like a sudden wave of central pawns in the midgame, enough to excite amateur players. But the grandmaster calmly watches the rear wing: the 2027 approval table still hangs in the air, regulatory links are not fully in place, and the entire layout is like a castling half done, with the king already exposed on an open file. They have left themselves enough turns to adjust, which is the rhythm masters are accustomed to—first lay down time, then space.
Wallets, on-chain infrastructure, regulated market links—these three pieces are never mere decorations. In my game, they correspond to the rook's path, the bishop's diagonal, and the promotion square behind the pawn chain. If the wallet layer truly maps shareholder identity, if on-chain settlement can complete delivery under regulatory supervision, if market links ultimately hold the official logic of the exchange, then tokenized stocks will have truly reached the baseline, holding the crown of "promotion." But each of these "ifs" still hangs in the balance.
The price linkage of the US stock token XSKHY reminds me even more of a common chess illusion: shadow linkage. Two pieces separated by oceans breathe in sync with price fluctuations, seemingly forming an attack network, but in reality just a mirror reflection. The true determinant of the battlefield is always the question of "who owns the king." When a token can only transmit market tremors but cannot carry shareholder authority, it is like a rook without a tower—having the shape of a tower but lacking its vision.
This is the touchstone of this RWA experiment in my eyes: price exposure is just the opening bell of the prelude; trading and settlement are the real exchange zones in the midgame; shareholder rights are the only trump card that can "checkmate" before the endgame. The London Stock Exchange has just opened the first page of the scorebook; the battle is far from over, but the subtlety is already apparent—everything seems to chase digital shadows, but in fact every move is laying the groundwork for the final promotion square.
A pawn without promotion rights remains just a pawn at the baseline; a token without equity, no matter how high it rises, is only a virtual reflection of the stock price. #lsetokenizesukstocksI used to think I was the main character, but later I realized I'm just a background player in this market.
Every day I watch those whale addresses transferring amounts so large they could buy a whole street in my hometown, while I can't even reach the change.
Once I watched an address withdraw 100,000 $ETH from an exchange and transfer it to a cold wallet, smooth and clean.
I thought this must be a real big shot, but the next day another address sent 50,000 $BTC to the exchange.
The market immediately took a dive, and my small position shook a few times; the big shot didn't even know I existed.
At times like this, I wonder why I get so worked up—these whales can move a tiny fraction and keep me up all night.
Later, I learned my lesson and set those whale addresses on a watchlist, not to copy trades, just like checking the weather forecast.
When they rush to exchanges, I cancel my orders and avoid catching flying knives.
When they collect into cold wallets, I don't rush to buy either, because they might be long-term holders, unrelated to me.
After watching for months, I found whale behavior is more honest than candlesticks but still unpredictable.
Sometimes they just move funds between wallets or pay project teams, which doesn't mean the market is about to change.
The funniest was when I tracked an address frequently buying and selling, thinking it was a quant bot.
Later I found out it was an exchange's hot wallet handling user deposits and withdrawals—I wasted half a month watching it.
So now I think on-chain data can be a reference but shouldn't be treated as gospel.
The truly useful info is often hidden in those rarely moving addresses; they are the real zen players.
I have an album on my phone where I screenshot large transfers but rarely open it anymore.
I keep it just for fun, occasionally flipping through to marvel at the world's unevenness.
Anyway, I no longer panic when I see a big transfer; I eat and drink as usual.
My $BTC and $ETH remain the same, sitting still without fuss, with stablecoins making up 30%.
Sometimes I use a little money to play with new coins; if I lose, I consider it a ticket to the whales' spectacular show.
In this market, most people are destined to be spectators; being able to calmly watch a few bull and bear cycles is a win.
This afternoon I saw an address send 100 million worth of $USDC to a black hole for burning; the comment section was guessing if it was a mistake or performance art.
I smiled, closed the browser, and went to the kitchen to cook a bowl of noodles.
Whether it was a slip or deliberate, it doesn't affect the spicy flavor of the chili sauce in my bowl.
After eating, I stood on the balcony for a while; the kindergarten downstairs was letting out, and the kids ran faster than my orders got filled.
At that moment, I felt being a background player is pretty good; at least no transfer decides my mood.
Before the screen went dark, I checked the watchlist again—no big moves tonight.
Pretty good, I can peacefully go chase the latest episodes.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Two AI earnings reports shook the market on the same night: Broadcom's "strong" beat and Snowflake's "aggressive" guidance raise
After last night's U.S. market close, two AI-related earnings reports came out simultaneously:
Broadcom FY26 Q3
• Revenue 29.59 billion, +86% YoY, beating expectations
• Adjusted EPS $3.32, also beat
• AI semiconductor revenue 16.7 billion, +221% YoY
• Raised FY26 AI guidance from 56 billion to 58 billion, FY27 outlook at 115 billion
• But Q4 total revenue guidance at 34.8 billion, slightly below the sell-side estimate of 35 billion, initially fell after hours then recovered
Snowflake FY27 Q2
• Product revenue 1.492 billion, +37% YoY
• Full-year product guidance raised from 5.84 billion to 6.07 billion
• After-hours surged up to +22%
What this means for the crypto space
AI capital funding continues to expand → Nasdaq risk appetite recovers, BTC/ETH still show the beta elasticity with U.S. tech stocks. But Broadcom's "good earnings but stock fell" shows the market wants not just a beat, but a beat plus guidance. The same applies to crypto; just watching BTC rise is not enough, ETF net flows must be monitored.
The AI narrative is not cooling off, but the margin for error is zero; don't use "earnings hype" as a reason to go all in.