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BTC ETF data hits a new high since January. Referring to the ETF peak and shift on January 14, is this another short-term pullback opportunity?
Waller's speech stimulated #Bitcoin to rise further. Now let's look at yesterday's ETF data to see if it provides a secondary confirmation of the price and supports continued price rebound!
On Thursday, BTC ETF net inflow reached as high as 731 million, the largest single-day volume since January 14, 2026, second only to the 843 million net inflow on January 14.
Among them, IBIT net inflow accounted for 62.1%, with a slightly more dispersed net inflow compared to recent times, indicating some expansion in market sentiment.
Crypto market data:
During the market rebound, the market cap share of altcoins actually increased, spreading short-term optimistic sentiment to altcoins.
Trading volume increased, but the overall increase was only 40%, not a short-term extreme increment. Obviously, yesterday's pullback did not trigger much selling pressure or turnover.
Total funds increased by 1 billion, with USDC net inflow of 632 million. US funds continue to maintain net inflow, while Asian funds net inflow was only 39 million.
Summary of today's data:
ETF shows strong short-term growth, combined with net inflow of crypto funds. Looking only at market data, the short-term outlook is indeed optimistic. However, there is a question: Thursday's ETF was the peak since January 14, and January 14 was the last peak. After that peak, #Bitcoin experienced a pullback.
If Friday's ETF net inflow weakens, will the market replicate the consolidation pullback after January 14?BTC reclaiming $80K while ETH leads the 24h move points to broader risk appetite, not just a squeeze. Markets may be positioning for a softer macro path into CPI, with ETH’s relative strength the key signal. If it holds, participation could widen beyond BTC.
Not financial advice—just analysis.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The moment the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged past the 5% mark, the entire king's wing on the chessboard cracked open—the black rook had quietly advanced to the seventh file, while the white king was still strolling in the center. The so-called nearly 4.8% on the 10-year was just a local move watched by amateurs; the true grandmasters saw the fate of all pieces on this diagonal twenty moves ago: whoever controls the long end holds the breath of all assets on the board.
The underlying fire of this game is 40 trillion. Forty trillion is not an advantage in pieces, but a timeout warning constantly flashing red on the chess clock. The U.S. government buys old generals with new rooks every turn—the pawns of interest payments push forward one by one, yet no move truly improves the formation. This is the real meaning of term premium: when you press your reserve positions into the board, none of your pieces have a retreat; every refinancing of long-term government bonds plants another pawn at the foot of your own king's castle.
Now the midgame has reached its most painful point. Yields remain high, like White forcefully pushing a passed pawn from the fourth rank to the 48th file, with the 30-year wing firmly pressed above 5%. This pawn is not isolated; behind it is a complete pawn chain: mortgages, corporate financing, government interest costs—all waiting to be pierced along the same diagonal. You think stocks, gold, and BTC are mere sidelines spectators? Wrong. They all stand on the same horizontal line—the long end is the absolute center, and when this line’s gravitational field rises, all high-level assets must obediently concede half a point.
Some still fantasize that cooling employment and falling inflation will give them a breather. That’s a dream only a player who sees just the next three moves would have. The previous decline in long-end yields belonged only to a false endgame peace: after a wave of cold data hedging, the board still has a heavy passed pawn forged from 40 trillion, steadily advancing along the diagonal toward the baseline. It doesn’t need a quick win, only for you to make one wrong move.
What truly devours is time and space. Ten years ago, the Treasury chessboard hid the shadow of one person, but this time there’s an added cable that only follows the red flag—the shadow asset linked to U.S. stocks moves ever closer to the U.S. stock formation, forgetting that the formation’s master is pinned in the corner. Every step the rate hike hand advances, the so-called linkage is just a lengthened noose, restraining the king of the formation, while simultaneously putting the gold and coins behind the king in check.
Looking at this situation, I just want to close my eyes and count squares: the endgame is bottomless, the king’s wing waits for no one, only the two rooks continuously call check. This game doesn’t require you to rush to capture pieces, because the opponent won’t give you the chance—it will clamp the king in the center dead in the moment you act impulsively. #longendtreasurypressure$BTC / Gold ratio reached 18.17, and the media are all writing "the highest since January." This statement is correct but can easily be misunderstood as "already very strong."
The peak at the end of 2024 is around 37–39, with about 28 in autumn 2025, and the low point in February this year was about 12.3. Now at 18, it is just climbing back from a deep pit, still more than halfway away from the previous high.
In January, the ratio also hovered around 16–18, then gold continued to surge, and the ratio weakened again. So "hitting a new high since January" looks more like a phase recovery, not a trend confirmation.
What supports this round of recovery is gold falling back from the $5589 high, combined with BTC rebounding from around 65,000. On the macro level, high debt and depreciation concerns have simultaneously increased demand for both hard assets, and the 90-day correlation has also risen to the highest level since 2020.
The problem is: high correlation often appears during the "buying safe havens together" phase. The real bull market acceleration historically happens more when Bitcoin starts to decouple from gold and rises independently.
Real interest rates are no longer rising rapidly, the US dollar credit narrative hasn’t suddenly changed, and Bitcoin’s own liquidity is still there. Missing any one of these, the ratio may fluctuate between 18–20. If gold returns near previous highs due to central bank purchases or geopolitical reasons, even if Bitcoin doesn’t fall, it will relatively weaken again.
18 is neither a buy point nor a sell point, just a health check report: relative to gold, BTC has come out of oversold territory but is still far from the strong zone. Position management is more important than narrative. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ When gold was still entrenched in ancient foundations worshipping the sun, Bitcoin had already hoisted an $80,000 steel beam above the clouds—the load-bearing walls of the two are simply not on the same geological map.
One BTC can now be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, a figure resembling a set of ominous stress test readings: gold prices are still settling and dampening, while Bitcoin’s tower crane has already surpassed its own historical high. Gold is the Roman dome built over five thousand years, solid, but every brick is being remeasured by the central bank’s tape; Bitcoin is a suspension bridge constructed according to Bloomberg Terminal blueprints, its main cables anchored in debt monetization, with tensile strength determined by the global liquidity budget.
I watch the 90-day correlation climb to its highest point since 2020—an outsider might think the two landmarks are linked, but in essence, under the same earthquake, the natural frequencies of the two structures have locked. Expectations of rate cuts loosening, US Treasury yields softening—these are early-strength agents poured into the foundation; net inflows into spot ETFs in August are like concrete pump trucks arriving on site, suddenly turning into two-way pouring in early September—some are dismantling the tower formwork and transporting it on pallets, others are tying new stirrups into the ground slots.
Yi Lihua and Scaramucci on the support side hand over a structural engineer’s safety certificate; and Jiang Zhuoer liquidating near $80,500 is like a steel beam falling at the demolition site, crashing onto the construction fence with a clang. Retail investors see candlesticks, I see those untied rebar couplers on the unloading platform: the selling pressure in the $80,000 to $82,500 range is the glass curtain wall during typhoon season, and the wind tunnel test is not yet complete.
Traditional finance’s blueprints only show two load combinations: malignant inflation and sovereign default. Now they appear simultaneously in the same working condition, the gold’s bearing platform is buried too shallow, even the base friction coefficient is starting to fail. What about Bitcoin’s steel core column? It’s wrapped in a thin layer of compliant concrete; cracks are inevitable, but as long as the ductile design in the node area hasn’t been overturned by the client, it can continue to resist lateral forces greater than those on gold prices.
What truly keeps me awake at night is never the elevation on the price chart, but the unclear regulatory debris beneath the tower crane’s rotation radius.
That half-abandoned building in Equatorial Guinea also claimed to have undergone uplift tests back in the day. #BTCGoldRatioHigh The BTC to gold ratio has risen to 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year, meaning one Bitcoin can now be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. Currently, BTC is about $81,000, and gold is around $4,470 per ounce.
At the end of 2024, this ratio once approached 39, and around October 2025, it was in the 28–31 range.
What’s truly worth watching is the structure: in February this year, the ratio dropped to around 12.3, at which time gold surged above $5,500, while BTC struggled near $65,000. Afterwards, gold retreated from its highs, BTC recovered from its lows, and the ratio rose from the bottom to the current 18.
Major economies have high debt levels, and the market worries about fiscal monetization and dilution of currency purchasing power. Both gold and Bitcoin are considered "anti-dilution assets," and their correlation has recently reached a near six-year high.
Gold acts more like a traditional safe haven, while Bitcoin is more volatile and resilient. If debt and real interest rate expectations remain loose, capital will buy both; once risk appetite returns and the stock market attracts funds again, Bitcoin usually leads the way, with gold lagging behind.
Whether the US dollar credit narrative still holds, and whether Bitcoin can decouple from risk assets and be priced independently as "digital scarcity," are key questions. The ratio returning to 20–21 doesn’t require BTC to hit new highs; gold just needs to soften a bit more. But if gold rallies again due to geopolitical factors or central bank purchases, the ratio could be pushed back down.
The story of digital gold is still being written, but this chapter is about relative strength, not absolute price. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Don't just focus on 81,000; institutions dumped 731 million yesterday.
On September 3rd Eastern Time, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of 731 million USD.
This is the third highest single-day inflow since 2026, not a small matter.
BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed 454 million, Ark's ARKB followed with 138 million.
On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF also had a net inflow of 141 million; money is flowing in simultaneously.
Price-wise, $BTC surged past the high during the day but then fell back near 80,700.
Many only see the rally, but in fact, real money has already been in the ledger.
I think: Waller's dovish stance combined with ETF inflows could easily cause a short-term overshoot.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet; if the data disappoints, even the $81K support will wobble.
What to do: don't chase the rising candlesticks aggressively.
Better to watch if the pullback can hold; if it can't, treat this as just a rebound.
The invalidation conditions are clear—ETF net outflows for two consecutive days, or rate hike expectations surge back above 60%.
Do you trust institutional inflows to withstand the non-farm data, or do you think this is just a bull trap? #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ ?
$BTC
$ETH
$IBITOn-Chain Signals and Macro Undercurrents: BTC's Risk Pricing Is Shifting
Technically approaching a critical point: $BTC's 50-day moving average is about to cross above the 200-day moving average. If the "golden cross" forms, it is often seen as an early structure signaling a medium- to long-term trend reversal. Meanwhile, USDT's market share is weakening, suggesting some liquidity is migrating from stablecoin pools to risk assets, indicating a subtle short-term preference shift.
Macro expectations are marginally improving. Arthur Hayes mentioned that Japan's GPIF asset allocation adjustments could act as a catalyst for liquidity expansion, but this remains speculative. The true determinants of BTC's direction remain the real U.S. dollar interest rates and global funding costs.
Institutional progress is more substantive. Standard Chartered Bank has extended BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, showing that traditional financial channels are accelerating compliant access. Analyst Willy Woo proposed that with ETFs and deep institutional participation, BTC's four-year cycle could extend to six to eight years, with market drivers shifting from the halving narrative to balance sheet allocation.
However, the trend still requires validation. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT's share could also reflect short-term risk appetite fluctuations. Only with sustained net inflows in spot and ETFs, and BTC effectively holding the $80,000 to $83,300 range, can a new upward structure be considered credible. Until then, the market remains in a phase of expectation versus reality.
#比特币再破80000美元
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The recent rise of $ARB largely stems from the new narrative brought by Robinhood Chain. This chain is built on the Arbitrum tech stack, and after its launch in July, trading activity quickly expanded. The latest data even shows that Robinhood Chain's single-day revenue once reached about $4.01 million, surpassing many mainstream public chains at one point. However, this is where market sentiment can easily be misled: Robinhood Chain making money ≠ ARB holders directly profiting. According to the Arbitrum Expansion Program, eligible external chains will return **10% of net protocol revenue** back to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with about 8% going to the DAO treasury and 2% to the Developer Guild. Since its launch, Robinhood Chain has contributed approximately $1.3 million to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Meanwhile, Arbitrum DAO disclosed revenue of about $6.19 million for the first half of 2026, with a gross margin exceeding 97%; Robinhood Chain contributed about $360,000 in authorized revenue in July, accounting for about 35% of the DAO's income that month. So what’s really worth studying is not: ❌ "Robinhood made money, so ARB must rise." But rather: ✅ Can Arbitrum leverage tech stack authorization to have other projects help it holdAnother new address bullish on $UNI 🦄
Address 0x9a3…9513c withdrew 327,872 UNI from an exchange half an hour ago, worth 2.045 million USD, with an average withdrawal price of $6.24; the withdrawal source of this address differs from the Haskey-associated address, so it is not yet confirmed if they belong to the same entity
Wallet address 0x9a32979575D4a5078b917AaAb27e20035589513c📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (September 4)
Bears dominated all day, starting with extreme pressure in the first hour, a violent 5.86x bear control over 4 hours, narrowing to 2.27x near equilibrium at 12 hours, and stabilizing at 2.33x at 24 hours close — after an inverted V-shaped exhaustion, it steadied at a low level, with low concentration indicating liquidations persisted throughout the day and volume still increasing at the close.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $1,215.40 $0 $1,215.40
4 hours $87,800 $12,800 $75,000
12 hours $158,000 $48,300 $109,600
24 hours $672,900 $202,200 $470,700
In the first hour, bears exerted extreme pressure with long liquidations at zero and short liquidations at $1,215.40; at 4 hours, bears controlled violently at 5.86x, with volume soaring to $87,800; at 12 hours, bear dominance narrowed to 2.27x, volume rose to $158,000, and short squeeze momentum was near exhaustion; at 24 hours, bears closed at 2.33x, liquidations were $470,700 for shorts versus $202,200 for longs, totaling $672,900. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 23.5% of the 24-hour total, with low concentration — liquidation pressure persisted all day and continued to release at the close. Multiplier trajectory: extreme → 5.86x → 2.27x → 2.33x, showing an inverted V-shaped exhaustion followed by stabilization at a low level. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; the direction is clear but momentum is severely exhausted, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 4
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the September rate hike suspense is shifting from "whether to hike" to "watching the data," while Bitcoin is proving its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold" with a record gold exchange ratio.
🏛️ Waller "Dovish Signal": August Inflation Decides September Rate Hike
On September 3, Fed Governor Waller sent a dovish signal: if inflation confirms cooling, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged; if inflation data is hot, he will consider a hike. CME data shows the probability of a September hike has fallen from 66% to about 50%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to 4.74%. The suspense has shifted from the hawkish tone of Waller to next week's CPI data.
₿ BTC to Gold Ratio Rises to 18.17: Digital Gold Narrative Realizing
On September 4, the Bitcoin to gold ratio rose to 18.17, the highest since January this year. Bitcoin returned above $81,000. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold hit a historic high on September 1, driven by the fiat credit revaluation after US debt surpassed $40 trillion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "Nasdaq shadow" to "digital gold."
🔮 OKX Prophet Launches September FOMC Rate Prediction
OKX "Prophet" Season 2 has included the September FOMC rate decision prediction in its pool. Users can use free XP to judge whether the Fed will hike and share a $600,000 prize pool.
💎 Summary
Waller's dovish turn reduced the September hike probability from 66% to 50%, shifting suspense from "whether to hike" to "CPI decides"; the BTC to gold ratio rose to 18.17, a yearly high, with the "digital gold" narrative being realized by data; OKX Prophet included FOMC predictions in a $600,000 prize pool, with market competition evolving from single events to full-track coverage. SKHYNIX liquidation data shows a typical "inverted V-shaped exhaustion" structure — bears gradually retreated from extreme pressure to 2.33x near equilibrium; although the direction favors bears, momentum is severely insufficient, making shorting cost-ineffective. The big direction depends on CPI. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $CORE ready-made scapegoat script! CORE deposit delayed again coinciding with non-farm payrolls, risks continue to accumulate
The expected delay, deposit channel directly postponed to 11:00 AM on September 7.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released heavily; even if the deposit channel remains locked, this ready-made PR excuse still works.
Deposits remain unavailable, the accumulated on-chain chips cannot be released, selling pressure will not disappear out of thin air, it will only continue to pile up, and community confidence suffers another blow. Even if the transfer entrance remains closed, regardless of market rises or falls afterward, the market fluctuations can still be blamed on the macro non-farm payroll data, covering up internal legacy issues such as overissuance loopholes and pledge escapes.
But the script may not play out as expected.
If the non-farm data is positive and drives $BTC to rally, the market will be strongly supported, and the short-term market may stabilize. However, the delay only postpones the risk, not eliminates it; when the channel truly opens on the 7th, the long-accumulated chip pressure will still be released.
Do not be fooled by the excuse of maintaining and improving security.
Focus closely on the market reaction tonight and recognize: the delay only postpones the crisis and does not solve the root problem.The U.S. Treasury is conducting large-scale buybacks of long-term bonds to suppress interest rates, causing funds to overflow into the stock market, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Stablecoin companies absorb short-term debt as reserves and, in turn, provide buyback funds to the Treasury, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. After September 9, the scale of buybacks doubled, and the mechanism became institutionalized. Essentially, this is a swap of short-term debt for long-term debt; the debt amount does not decrease but the maturity shortens, accompanied by a dilution of monetary purchasing power. The increase in account numbers does not necessarily represent a real increase in wealth; it may simply reflect a depreciation of the unit of account.From your perspective, #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ UNI halted just before the $6 mark, rising 38% cumulatively over the past seven days, doubling directly from the August low of about $3, and once reaching $6.30 on September 2, hitting an eight-month high. Daily trading volume exceeded $1 billion, with market capitalization surpassing $3.7 billion, and all moving averages were trampled beneath. The short-term surge is too strong, and the market needs to catch its breath. The real driver of this rally is not the stock game of DeFi players but the incremental funds brought by Robinhood Chain. The network's trading volume reached $17.99 billion in August, a month-on-month increase of 26%; on September 1, out of $1.95 billion in daily transactions, $1.75 billion was completed through Uniswap pools, meaning almost every on-chain transaction contributed fees to the protocol. Uniswap collected $9.24 million in fees within 24 hours on Robinhood Chain, accounting for the vast majority of the network's total fees. This new chain now contributes two-thirds of Uniswap's total revenue. From DeFi fees to Wall Street RWA transaction fees, the protocol's revenue structure is quietly changing. Another support comes from the Fee Switch. The UNIfication proposal passed in December 2025, officially activating protocol fees; in January 2026, a one-time burn of 100 million UNI, about 16% of the total supply, occurred. The burn pace has not stopped since, with over $300,000 burned every ten days, an annualized rate close to $160 million. Standard Chartered Bank estimates that at mid-August speed, the annualized burn volume is about 4% of the circulating supply. 202#HOODChainRevenueLead Robinhood closed up 16.57% at a 2026 high, but the Robinhood Chain revenue numbers caught my attention more than the stock move 👀
The chain reportedly generated $4.01M in daily revenue—the highest among public chains—with two-month fees reaching $13.05M. That works out to roughly $110M annualized based on the past 30 days.
Still, most activity appears to come from Meme tokens, launchpads and terminal-driven trading. So the revenue is real, but the durability of its current sources remains an open question 🧩
Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler and Scotiabank all turned more positive on HOOD, while Arbitrum also benefits through revenue sharing.
To me, the next phase matters more than the current ranking: can Robinhood convert speculative activity into sustained demand for tokenized real-world assets?
Leading revenue today is impressive. Building a broader ecosystem from it would be the harder achievement.#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 1 BTC can now be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, the ratio has surged to the highest since January, can this momentum continue?
Here are the numbers: BTC/XAU currently at 18.17, meaning 1 BTC ≈ 18.2 ounces of gold, a new high since January this year; BTC is about $81k, gold about $4620/oz.
Why is BTC leading the ratio rise?
• Spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, gold ETFs are also attracting funds simultaneously, buying "scarce assets" together
• Cooling rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields fall → USD weakens, BTC is more elastic than gold
• Fiscal deficit narrative reignites, funds are making "devaluation trades"
Three validations for continued strength
① Ratio stays firmly above 18 for 3 days; if not broken, relative strength continues
② BTC itself holds 78k–80k; if lost, ratio likely to fall back
③ Gold does not spike sharply
What to watch above
The previous high ratio was near January; if volume breaks above 18.5–19, next target is 20; support at 17.2 (break = gold overtakes).
My judgment
Neutral bullish: BTC elasticity is superior, but gold is also at historical highs. For the ratio to surge to 20 in one go, ETF net inflows must continue. Do not chase single-day spikes; wait for a pullback to 18 without breaking before moving again.
The ratio is not a trade call, it’s about seeing "who is stronger." BTC stronger than gold = risk appetite recovering$BTC
This leg up wasn’t fueled by short covering whatsoever.
CVD, spot CVD, and open interest all rose alongside price.
This shows that this pump was fueled by demand on both sides of the market.
However, spot was buying much more aggressively than perps, which is a good sign.
You don’t see demand like that in a bear market.#OKX预言家：September FOMC Rate Decision Prediction Goes Live
The OKX Prophet's FOMC prediction game is quite interesting.
The result will be revealed on September 17, and the bets on a rate hike versus holding steady are almost evenly split. This is much more exciting than just looking at candlestick charts; if you bet right, it's skill, and if you bet wrong, at least you can review and learn something.
CME FedWatch shows a 50.2% chance of a rate hike in September and 49.8% chance of no change. A week ago, the probability of a hike was still above 60%. On the 3rd, Waller said, "If inflation data comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike," which immediately dropped expectations by over ten points. Currently, within the Fed, about 6 votes favor holding steady and 5 votes favor a hike; it's unclear which way the chair's vote will go.
The key depends on two things.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 56,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Once the data is released, the market will move first, and expectations will adjust accordingly. Next Wednesday, August CPI and PPI will be released; Waller's exact words were "largely depends on" this data. Whether inflation is hot or cold will directly determine if there will be a hike in September.
My own judgment:
The probability of a rate hike has already dropped from a high level to 50%. Waller's statement basically means "If the data cools down, I support holding steady; if the data rebounds, I support a hike." Both options are blocked, effectively leaving the decision to the CPI. If next week's CPI weakens, the hike expectation will continue to drop. If CPI rebounds, the 50% figure could bounce back above 60% at any time.
Betting on direction at this point is meaningless; wait for the data to come out.
$BTC Federal Reserve Governor Waller's latest statement: whether to raise interest rates in September largely depends on the August CPI inflation data.
The current market is at a critical window: tonight's non-farm payrolls, next week's CPI/PPI, followed by the mid-September FOMC meeting.
Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is 50.2%, basically a coin toss.
Logic chain:
Stronger employment and inflation data → rate hike expectations rise → USD and U.S. Treasuries strengthen, BTC/ETH under pressure;
Weaker inflation and employment → rate hike expectations cool down, favorable for the crypto market.
Macro factors will only affect short-term volatility and will not reverse the major trend of the bull market's second phase. However, news can cause sharp spikes and false breakouts.
Practical advice:
1. During important data windows, avoid full positions and leave room for error.
2. Do not open positions immediately after data release; wait for the market to digest and confirm.
3. Continue to allocate mainly BTC and ETH, strictly control altcoin positions.
#Waller: August inflation determines September rate hike
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin Is Rising. The Real Test Is Whether Altcoins Can Keep Up
The crypto market is approaching a critical transition.
$BTC has climbed back above $80K, but the next phase will be determined by whether capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin or begins spreading across the rest of the market.
That distinction matters more than another green daily candle.
The U.S. jobs report is due today, with economists expecting roughly 56,000 new jobs and unemployment around 4.1%. The data could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve and, through Treasury yields and the dollar, broader risk appetite.
My radar is watching market breadth after the macro release.
If $BTC holds its gains while $ETH starts outperforming, that would be the first meaningful sign that liquidity is moving down the risk curve.
Then I want to see $SOL, $XRP and $BNB maintain relative strength.
The next layer is where the real rotation becomes visible.
$SUI, $APT, $AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI need sustained demand rather than isolated pumps.
DeFi should also participate.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE are on my radar because a healthy rotation should eventually translate into stronger trading, lending and yield activity.
The infrastructure side is equally important.
$LINK and $ONDO remain tied to the broader institutional and RWA thesis, while $ARB and $OP can reveal whether Layer 2 assets are attracting fresh capital.
AI beta through $TAO, $RENDER and $FET is another area I would watch if risk appetite expands aggressively.
The bigger signal is simple:
An altseason does not begin because a few tokens pump. It begins when liquidity starts spreading across multiple sectors.
Right now, Bitcoin is still the market's strongest liquidity anchor.
The next question is whether $BTC strength becomes the foundation for broader rotation or simply keeps dominance elevated.
With Bitcoin testing major resistance around $82.8K, the next few sessions could tell us which scenario is developing.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #沃勒：August inflation determines whether there will be a rate hike in September
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. I'll translate Waller's words into plain language for you: The old man has directly tied the vote for the September 15 FOMC meeting to the August CPI data coming out next week on September 11.
His original meaning boils down to two points—if CPI continues to decline toward 2%, he will hold steady;
if CPI rebounds even slightly, though not sharply, he accepts a "small rate hike."
He says "inflation is finally cooling down," but the 3.5%-3.75% interest rate is only considered a "mild restriction," so inflation doesn't have to surge wildly to push him toward a hawkish stance.
Overall, he leans dovish this time; the market's rate hike probability dropping from 60% to around 50% is evidence, but the door isn't completely closed.
For the mid-term, let's focus on the September 11 CPI number: if it's below the previous value and expectations = high chance of no change in September; if it exceeds expectations = rate hikes may reignite.
Ignore what other officials argue for now; Waller's vote depends on the data.
Let's wait and see tonight!!!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 1 BTC can now be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, the ratio has surged to the highest since January, can this momentum continue?
First, some numbers: BTC/XAU currently at 18.17, meaning 1 BTC ≈ 18.2 ounces of gold, a new high since January this year; BTC is about $81k, gold about $4620/oz.
Why is the ratio led by BTC?
• Spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, gold ETFs are also attracting funds simultaneously, buying "scarce assets" together
• Cooling rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields fall → USD weakens, BTC is more elastic than gold
• Fiscal deficit narrative reignites, funds engage in "devaluation trades"
Three validations for continued strength
① Ratio stays steadily above 18 for 3 days; if not broken, relative strength continues
② BTC itself holds 78k–80k; if lost, the ratio tends to fall back
③ Gold does not spike sharply
What to watch above
The previous high of the ratio was near January; if volume breaks through 18.5–19, the next target is 20; support is at 17.2 (breaking below = gold overtakes).
My judgment
Neutral to slightly bullish: BTC has superior elasticity, but gold is also at historical highs. For the ratio to surge to 20 in one go, ETF net inflows need to continue. No chasing single-day spikes; wait for a pullback to 18 without breaking before moving.
The ratio is not a trade call, it’s about seeing "who is stronger." BTC stronger than gold = risk appetite recovering#比特币再破80000美元
At the same 80,000 threshold: Yi Lihua sees 86,000, Jiang Zhuoer fully exits at 82,050. Only a 5% difference between them, one as a starting point, the other as an endpoint.
BTC breaks 80,000 again, relying on macro loosening—cooling interest rate hike expectations and falling US Treasury yields. But the driving force hasn't connected yet.
▪️ OKX spot BTC/USDT returns above 80,000
▪️ August US spot BTC ETF sees overall net inflow, early September turns to two-way volatility, institutional buying hasn't formed continuous momentum
▪️ BTC×Gold 90-day correlation rises to the highest since 2020 (Bitwise)
▪️ Yi Lihua: Bull market has started, next resistance at 86,000 | Jiang Zhuoer: Fully exited at 82,050, guarding against ETF fund weakening and pullback
The disagreement isn't about whether 80,000 can be broken—it already has. After the breakout: will the trend start, or will it switch to another range and continue to consolidate?
BTC outlook: 80,000–82,500 is a clear selling zone. Only if it holds above 82,500 and ETF net inflows continue can the story move to 86,000; if it doesn't hold, treat it as a false breakout and the scenario of falling back below 80,000 invalidates this.
The "gold as a devaluation hedge" narrative is true, but it's a slow variable and can't support single-day rallies.
Do you side with Yi Lihua or Jiang Zhuoer? Waller leaves the September rate hike suspense to CPI: 50.2% split, with tonight's nonfarm payrolls leading the way
Federal Reserve Governor Waller made it clear yesterday: whether to raise rates in September depends on CPI.
If inflation cools down, rates will remain unchanged; if data rebounds, rate hikes will be supported. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has fallen back to 50.2%, almost a coin toss — the market has never been this uncertain.
Waller also pointed out two key signals: the three-month core inflation rate dropped from 4.76% to 3.05%, with a "very encouraging" downward speed; initial jobless claims have remained between 200,000 and 240,000 over the past year, indicating a "satisfactory" employment situation.
But a backdoor is left open: if August CPI and PPI rebound, he would consider supporting a rate hike.
The next three checkpoints: tonight's nonfarm payrolls (expected 56,000, unemployment rate 4.1%), September 11 CPI, and September 15-16 FOMC. Until these three points pass, the direction remains uncertain.
My judgment: Waller's stance is very clear — inflation data decides everything. Weak CPI cools rate hike expectations, BTC pushes toward 83,000-84,000; strong CPI reignites rate hike expectations, BTC may pull back to 78,000. Don't bet on direction before these three points pass.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ARB How much longer can this rent-collecting narrative keep the hype going?
Brothers, ARB has taken off these past two days, rising nearly 50% in three days, from 0.07 all the way to 0.14. The core logic is simple—Robinhood Chain is paying it rent.
Robinhood’s chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, and in just two months since launch, it has generated over $13 million in fees. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, totaling $1.3 million distributed so far. The market suddenly realized—L2s can be played like this? Just collect taxes passively, isn’t that better than grinding to pull TVL?
But I think this wave of sentiment has mostly played out.
Technically, RSI is above 70, and the price has pierced the upper Bollinger Band—seriously overbought. More importantly, price is rising but open interest is falling, indicating this rally is more about shorts getting squeezed than new money chasing. Also, there are two unlocks on September 16 and 23, releasing over 230 million tokens, which is real selling pressure.
Whether Robinhood Chain’s heat can last depends on whether its fee income can stay high. And don’t forget, Robinhood is a publicly traded company—if they ever think the 10% cut is too expensive, they could just follow Base and leave anytime.$BTC Today's rebound is stronger than expected, currently retaking the $80,000 level, and intraday it even approached $82,000.
From the candlestick perspective, the previous downtrend structure has been clearly broken, and the short-term trend is back under bullish control, though resistance around $82,000 remains heavy.
I think this rise is not just a technical rebound. After Waller released a dovish signal, market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly cooled down. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have both fallen, risk assets have generally warmed up, and BTC has also seen concentrated short covering, further amplifying the gains.
I actually wouldn’t chase the rally now; $82,000 is the first real test.
If there is a volume breakout and the price holds above, I would look at $85,000 or even $90,000; if it spikes and then falls back, whether the $80,000 level can hold will be crucial.
My feeling is that the market is getting strong again, but the biggest risk now is a pullback after the spike, not worrying about the rally ending immediately.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
The BTC/GOLD ratio has risen, with one BTC now exchangeable for a quantity of gold reaching the highest point since January. This indicates a recovery in Bitcoin's price ratio relative to gold, a warming of risk appetite, and capital beginning to rotate from safe-haven assets into the crypto market.
Behind the rising ratio, on one hand, BTC has recently rebounded strongly; on the other hand, market concerns about global debt and fiat currency depreciation persist. Both assets are simultaneously favored by macro funds. But it is important to distinguish: ratio recovery does not mean BTC will surge unilaterally.
Personal view: ratio recovery is an emotional signal and should not be directly used as a basis for going long.
Historically, this indicator oscillates repeatedly; even if the ratio rises, there will be periodic pullbacks. If upcoming non-farm payrolls or FOMC events bring macro shocks, risk appetite could quickly decline, and the ratio could easily reverse downward again.
Gold remains the traditional safe-haven ballast. Once market panic intensifies, capital will prioritize flowing back into gold, dragging BTC down.
Practical approach:
Do not heavily chase $BTC longs based solely on the ratio. Keep a base position in spot without blindly adding; maintain strict leverage control in contracts.
Focus on two key signals: first, whether the ratio can sustain at high levels; second, whether there is significant outflow from gold ETFs.
With macro data windows approaching, the price ratio is only a reference; ultimately, the market is driven by liquidity and risk sentiment. $XAU Yesterday, there was a move in the BTC ETF that’s quite worth pondering.
The day before, $236 million flowed out, and the next day, $101 million flowed back in.
Among them, one product from IBIT absorbed about $115 million, while GBTC saw an outflow of $56.21 million.
What’s even more interesting is that throughout August, the US spot BTC ETF accumulated inflows of about $3.52 billion, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2026.
What does this indicate?
At least it shows that institutional funds haven’t gone far.
When the price drops a bit, money can be withdrawn.
But when opportunities appear, it comes back.
This is what I think is truly worth watching.
Of course, don’t interpret a single day’s net inflow as “institutions going wildly bullish.”
Money in the market has never been that loyal.
Money that comes in today can just as easily go out tomorrow.
So the so-called resilience of funds isn’t about who shouts the loudest when entering the market.
It’s about whether, after repeated market fluctuations, there’s still money willing to return.
$BTC The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a rather interesting change again yesterday.
There was a net inflow of about $101 million in a single day, directly reversing the previous day's net outflow of about $236 million. BlackRock's IBIT attracted about $115 million in a single day, while GBTC actually saw an outflow of about $56.21 million.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs in August was about $3.52 billion, setting a new monthly high since 2026.
So what I care more about is not whether there was an inflow or outflow on a particular day.
It's whether the funds are willing to come back after withdrawing.
Yesterday's answer was: willing.
This indicates that institutional interest in BTC has not completely disappeared due to short-term fluctuations.
But fund resilience does not necessarily mean the price will continue to rise.
What is truly worth observing is whether this kind of inflow can be sustained going forward.
After all, $100 million in one day is just sentiment.
Money flowing in for several consecutive weeks is more like an attitude.
$BTC #BTCGoldRatioHigh Bitcoin and gold are increasingly being discussed together as investors search for protection against currency debasement, expanding government debt, and long-term inflation. Their recent positive correlation suggests that both assets are benefiting from the same macro narrative. However, a high Bitcoin-to-gold ratio also means Bitcoin has appreciated much faster than the traditional safe-haven asset, making the comparison more sensitive to changes in liquidity and risk appetite.
Gold remains the more established defensive asset because of its deep market, central-bank demand, and lower volatility. Bitcoin offers scarcity and global portability but continues to behave partly like a high-beta technology asset during periods of market stress. A rising ratio may therefore signal confidence in digital scarcity, but it does not automatically prove that Bitcoin has replaced gold. The most useful interpretation is that investors are building a broader “hard asset” basket while assigning different roles to each asset: gold for stability and Bitcoin for asymmetric upside. If real yields rise sharply or liquidity tightens, the ratio could reverse quickly. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Previously, Wall Street pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September on the CME up to 70%, with bulls extremely tense. However, Waller casually stated that as long as August inflation continues the recent trend, he supports keeping the current interest rate unchanged and would only consider a rate hike if the data is strong.
This single statement halved the rate hike probability back to 50.2%, causing U.S. Treasury yields across maturities to drop by 3 to 5 basis points, and the dollar weakened accordingly. Many in the group cheered, thinking the hawkish official had finally backed down.
But I advise you not to be optimistic just yet. Waller is not blowing warm air; rather, he has pushed the entire market onto a high-wire act of dilemma.
He has handed over the trump card for the September decision entirely to the August CPI and PPI data to be released next week. Coupled with his and Bullard's repeated emphasis that employment conditions are satisfactory and stable, with last week's initial jobless claims at 206,000 firmly anchored within the one-year normal range of 200,000 to 240,000, the labor market without mass layoffs is precisely the Fed's confidence to pull the rate hike trigger at any time.
What is most frustrating now is not whether to hike rates, but that the 50.2% probability is equivalent to a pure coin toss. Tonight's expected 56,000 new jobs in August nonfarm payrolls, next week's inflation data, and the September 15-16 decision form three consecutive tough battles ahead. Any slight short-term data disturbance will trigger violent fluctuations in futures positions.
Before the fog of this fifty-fifty uncertainty clears, mistaking the probability drop as a buy-the-dip signal will most likely result in repeated losses from both sides.🚨 BTC LATEST NEWS — SEPTEMBER 4, 2026
₿ Bitcoin has pushed back above $80,000, trading around $80.8K–$81K, up roughly 4% today. �
Google +1
🔥 Big catalyst: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $730.9M in net inflows, their strongest single-day inflow since January. �
TradingView
📈 Key level to watch: BTC is approaching the $82,793 resistance. A strong breakout could open the way toward $90K, while losing the $75K–$76K area would weaken the setup. �
Reuters
#WallerEyesAugCPI $BTC September is very likely a window period for BTC positioning.
Currently, BTC is approaching a relatively high level. For short-term traders, light probing is more appropriate than chasing the rise—the higher the position, the lower the cost-effectiveness of chasing.
Historically, September has always been a month of weaker BTC performance, with large fluctuations and repeated direction changes, which is a typical consolidation phase; while from October to November, there is usually a stronger momentum market, with several major upward movements historically concentrated in this period.
This forms a simple and clear framework: September is mainly about volatility and accumulation, controlling positions and patiently observing; entering October to November, shift attention to momentum recovery, and increase efforts after trend signals are confirmed.
In short, now is not the time to be greedy, but the time to accumulate chips. $BTC is back above $80K, but the bigger question is whether the move has real staying power. 👀
Falling yields and softer Fed-hike expectations are helping, but ETF flows are becoming less consistent.
What’s even more interesting is BTC’s rising correlation with gold. 🥇
Are we seeing a new macro-driven Bitcoin regime, or will $BTC start trading more like a traditional risk asset again?
For me, $80K isn’t the victory lap.
It’s the level where demand needs to prove
itself.
#WallerEyesAugCPI The current core narrative of the US AI industry chain is: upstream chips (Broadcom, etc.) continue to see explosive earnings growth but the market is extremely strict on guidance; midstream infrastructure (Dell, etc.) orders and demand are still accelerating rapidly,
downstream applications (Snowflake, etc.) are beginning to show substantial progress in AI monetization.
Capital is shifting from "spreading evenly" to focusing on core targets with the strongest profit realization ability Today, Robinhood Chain saw another outrageous hype coin.
The AMC CEO publicly questioned Robinhood for launching AMC stock tokens without the company's involvement. The community then interpreted AMC as "A Meme Coin," directly issued MEME, and formed a trading pair with the tokenized AMC.
As a result, the market cap was only $11 million early in the morning, but surged past $150 million in the afternoon, hitting $100 million within a few hours.
The most absurd part is that the AMC CEO originally wanted to distance himself from this matter, but instead ended up delivering the strongest narrative.
This is the Meme market: opposition is also promotion, controversy generates traffic, and traffic can directly turn into liquidity.
A good Meme doesn't need dozens of pages of whitepaper; just one sentence can make everyone understand.
However, remember that a $100 million market cap doesn't mean $100 million actually flowed in. The faster a hype coin rises, the less time you usually get to react when the tide goes out. Other ETFs celebrate first and then decline for three months. $ZEC did not follow this script.
On August 25, Grayscale Trust converted to ZCSH, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the first privacy coin spot ETF. On the same day, it dropped from 850 to 780, which seemed normal. Afterwards, it didn’t continue to decline; a week ago it rose from 600 to an eight-year high, with most of the gains still intact, and even more buyers continued.
The market is small. Nearly 400,000 coins are locked in the trust, and subscriptions require buying spot coins. DCG hinted they might add another 200,000 coins. The old trust’s discount had already narrowed before listing, unlike GBTC’s unlocking and dumping. ZEC is optional privacy; the ETF uses transparent addresses, so it can pass regulation; Monero’s default coin mixing keeps Wall Street out. Grayscale talks about financial privacy in the AI surveillance era. There was a crash due to a vulnerability in June; in July, Ironwood closed the old pool, and both hash rate and coin hoarding are increasing.
Don’t mythologize. The futures once outpaced spot by several times; the drop on listing day was a rush to clear and run. It didn’t go through a long washout; the selling pressure and narrative are different, but that doesn’t mean a washout won’t happen. The market is small and highly leveraged, so a correction will be just as fierce. Buyers are faster than old holders, which is why it doesn’t fall. The day buyers lag behind, the script will merge.Is SPCX rocket going to return to the opening price of 150?
Let's review this path first:
IPO issue price 135 → opening price 150 → surged to 225 in the first week of listing → dropped to 104 in one and a half months → now back to 150
From 105 to 150 means a rebound of nearly 50%
150 has never been just a price; it has three things combined:
1. Opening price anchor: which is our recognized cost line
2. Break-even and loss boundary: falling below it = panic and worry, rising = price recovery
3. Psychological threshold: only truly standing above 150 proves SpaceX has the ability to absorb funds
Returning to 150, from the bulls' perspective, definitely means the shakeout is over. Next, Musk can use new narratives as a starting point to continue fundraising marketing for Mars, and this is also a perfect area to exit and break even.
So there are four key points to watch next:
1. Whether the new unlock landing in September can withstand the decline, to see the fund absorption capacity
2. The result of the next Starship test flight, which is the key narrative business
3. Whether AI revenue in September can improve, which is the future ceiling
4. The remaining is whether US tech stocks have resonance benefits to follow the rise
Just keep an eye on these four points for $SPCX, and you can do wellOn the eve of the non-farm payrolls, $BTC surged 2000 points with this single bullish candle. Honestly, it’s tempting to watch, but I really don’t dare to make a move.
Are you saying the good news leaked early? The only thing visible now is Waller’s few dovish remarks, but today’s service PMI at 55.4 and price index at 72.6 are right in front of us, and the probability of a 25BP rate hike in September still hangs at 64%. Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll expectation is only 56,000; if this data falls even slightly less, the 80,000 level won’t be support but a new trap zone. This rally feels more like a preemptive move, trying to absorb liquidity before the data release; once the data lands, it’s easier for the market to reverse.
$BEAT is currently at 0.124 with a 24-hour volume of 6.7 million U. Frankly, this volume is not enough to rely on. The unlocked chips haven’t been cleaned out; if 0.13 can’t hold, going down is much easier than going up. Chasing it is basically betting on continuous volume expansion, which is too risky.
$ZEC is somewhat interesting, with high turnover of 440 million USD near 850, meaning funds haven’t left, indicating some players still want to play. But this kind of token often has sharp spikes; if the non-farm data is slightly better, a spike down could wipe out a dozen points. The long-short double blow scenario has been seen too many times.
So my stance is very clear: near 80,000, I’d rather watch others count money than catch this last leg. The risk-reward ratio at this level isn’t worth it. When tomorrow’s data comes out and the direction is clear, it’s not too late to act. Missing out doesn’t lose money, but making the wrong move can bury you.
$BTC $ETH
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
A signal worth noting has appeared on the market📊
The BTC to gold ratio has reached a new high since January this year.
Simply put, one Bitcoin can now be exchanged for more ounces of gold.
Recently, $BTC and gold have surged upward in sync, both strengthening together, and the narrative of digital gold has once again attracted capital, according to Sina Finance.
But it’s important to distinguish whether Bitcoin is actively outperforming gold, or if gold’s lagging growth is highlighting BTC’s strength.
The non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and the FOMC meeting is imminent.
If employment data is strong, expectations for a September rate hike will rise again, liquidity will tighten, and as a high-volatility asset, BTC’s correction is likely to be sharper than gold’s, causing this ratio to easily turn downward, according to Sina Finance.
If the data weakens and rate cut expectations heat up, then BTC has a chance to continue outperforming gold, pushing the ratio even higher.
$ETH should not be overlooked here either.
In a strong market environment, Ethereum often shows independent price action, but during macro sell-offs, its retracement volatility is often greater than Bitcoin’s.
Don’t blindly go long just because the ratio hits a new high.
This level is a key resistance zone; whether the strength continues depends firmly on the non-farm data and Federal Reserve policy.
At this kind of juncture, avoid going all-in.
The new high in the ratio is only a reference signal, not a buy signal.
Wait for the macro dust to settle before judging whether this wave is a trend continuation or a bull trap.#Waller: August Inflation Will Determine Whether to Raise Rates in September
At 8:30 PM tonight, the August non-farm payroll report, the final piece of the puzzle before the FOMC meeting.
On September 3, Waller softened his stance, stating that he supports keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continues its recent progress; he would only consider supporting a rate hike if the data is strong. Following his remarks, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 70% to 50.2%.
The Reuters survey expects 56,000 to 58,000 new jobs in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. In July, non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, and the combined revisions for May and June were down by 103,000. The ADP report showed 38,000 jobs, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been trending colder for three consecutive months.
Bank of America said that the non-farm payroll report is just an appetizer, while the CPI is the main course that will determine the September rate hike. Inflation is the core anchor of current policy.
Three plays. The non-farm payroll is below 40,000, and the expectation of interest rate hikes continues to decline. BTC has the opportunity to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000. The non-farm market is between 50,000 and 80,000, with unclear direction, and BTC continues to fluctuate. The non-farm payrolls are above 100,000, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is solid. BTC continues to be under pressure, with a downward trend of 75,000 or even 72,000.
The employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising, Brent breaks through $95, and inflation is expanding. Of the 178 PCE sub-items, 54% increased by more than 3% year-on-year, compared to only 47% a year ago. Jobs are cold, inflation is still rising, and the market cannot set prices unilaterally. Don't bet on the data, wait until you land. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are just the appetizers$BTC#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Waller has handed the rate hike decision to August inflation: if the data is strong, hike; if soft, pause. Despite such a clear statement, the market has cut the rate hike probability from over 70% to 50.2%.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on September 3: if August inflation continues recent trends, rates will remain unchanged; if data strengthens, it supports a September rate hike. The next decision "largely depends on" next week's CPI and PPI releases.
▪️ CME: 25bp rate hike probability in September at 50.2%, previously over 70%
▪️ Initial jobless claims 206,000 (expected 205,000), steady between 200,000-240,000 for a year
▪️ After the speech, US Treasury yields fell 3-5bp, USD weakened against all G-10 currencies
▪️ Tonight's nonfarm payrolls: expected +56,000, unemployment rate 4.1%
A hawkish governor who didn’t close the door on rate hikes caused expectations to drop by 20%. The disagreement isn’t about whether August inflation is high—no one has seen next week’s CPI; it’s whether the Fed dares to turn "hawkish talk" into an actual hike.
Tonight’s nonfarm → next week’s CPI/PPI → 9/15-16 FOMC. Until these three hurdles pass, pricing is basically a coin toss.
Do you bet Waller dares to hike for real, or will he just keep talking?📈 Market Overview $Bitcoin trades around $80,700 as U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $731M in inflows on Thursday, their strongest single-day inflow since January. $Bitcoin: $80,708 +3.96% $Ethereum: $2,506 +4.48% Market Cap: $2.80T $BTC Dominance: 57.8% $Fear & Greed Index: 74 (Greed) Altcoin Index: 37/100 👉 Latest News • Bitcoin and Ethereum Hit Multi-Month Highs but Traders Cap 2026 Upside Bets • Metaplanet Buys 1,007 More Bitcoin As Treasury Hits 20,000 BTC • Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50 👉 Smal$CP has surged to a relatively high level, so you can try a small short position with light exposure.
$BTC rhythm projection: September is highly likely to experience a volatile consolidation, with the real rally window expected after October.
Looking back at historical seasonal patterns, September is generally weak, with an average pullback of about 3.1%.
After enduring September's volatility, October and November have historically been the two strongest months for BTC's annual breakout.
Therefore, the trading strategy is very clear: use the September consolidation window to accumulate positions gradually on dips.
Another main theme is to continue buying storage chips on dips.
TrendForce has raised its Q3 $DRAM price increase forecast.
PC DRAM is expected to rise 18-23% quarter-over-quarter, server DRAM 13-18%, and mobile memory 8-13%.
Samsung has already locked about 70% of its 2026-2031 capacity to Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google through long-term contracts.
Currently, HBM spot prices are even higher than contract prices, and spot prices continue to rise.
Given the spot price increases, the current pullback in the storage sector does not warrant excessive panic.
Of course, seasonality is only a historical statistic and does not mechanically repeat every year; it should not be treated as a certainty.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC is building a bullish narrative into my pivot, but history makes me cautious here.
in previous cycles, strong bullish sentiment around the 4th–6th pivot often aligned with local highs.
if that pattern repeats, a move lower into mid-September could be possible.
I’m not shorting this watching $74.3K for a potential second swing-long entry. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC What exactly is going on with this thing? Originally, I thought Meme coins have small market caps, relatively limited liquidity, and chips are easier to concentrate, so after a pump, a pullback usually follows, which made me look for shorting opportunities. But reality gave me a lesson: You think it has risen enough, but it can still go higher. You think it should pull back here, but it reverses and pumps again. You think it has finally topped out, but it sends the shorts packing again. This time, I really got burned. Moreover, the overall capital style in the Meme sector has indeed changed a bit recently. The most obvious recent hotspot is Robinhood Chain. After launching in July, this chain originally focused on on-chain stocks and real-world assets, but what really drove the traffic was Meme coins. A batch of Meme coins like $CASHCAT, $PONS, and $AI exploded consecutively, and the DEX trading volume on Robinhood Chain even once surpassed the $1 billion level. The latest reports show that PONS has even surpassed CASHCAT, becoming one of the largest crypto assets on the chain. Even more astonishing, some wallets that participated early in CASHCAT and PONS have already earned millions of dollars, and this wealth effect further fuels market FOMO. So I suddenly thought of a question: Could the crazy surge of $USELESS also be an overflow rally after Meme capital becomes active again? Of course, some might further speculate whether certain big funds or market makers...🚨 $BTC & $ETH Are Consolidating Not Necessarily Topping
$BTC rallied from $76K → $81K, while $ETH moved from $2.3K → $2.5K. Both are now consolidating after the sharp move.
Key levels to watch:
BTC: $82K resistance
ETH: Momentum remains strong if liquidity above key levels gets cleared.
With U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls ahead, volatility could expand quickly. For now, patience may be better than chasing the move.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh Speaking of last night, Wall Street experienced a sudden shift; Fed's Waller each uttered a "dovish" remark, shaking the market. The three major factions—the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq—all drew their swords, closing up 1.18%, 1.06%, and 1.4%, at 53,686.11, 7,747.71, and 26,584.06 points respectively, truly united as one, heading to a grand feast.
The ISM Services Index came out at 55.4, far exceeding expectations, like a thunderclap in the dark night, illuminating the bulls' morale. The market's long-suppressed bullish spirit took advantage of this favorable wind and soared.
Seven masters gathered to debate: Tesla led the charge, surging over 50% with unstoppable momentum; Meta followed closely, rising over 30%; Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Nvidia each showed their prowess with gains; Apple was not left behind, steadily closing up 10%. The seven swords rang together, a rare sight in the market.
Yet beneath the feast, there were also fallen: Lululemon's earnings missed expectations, plunging 17% after hours like a broken sword; Ctrip also suffered losses, dropping over 5%. Only Hesai Technology stood out, bucking the trend with a surge of over 11%, taking the lead.
Observing this scene at night, I can only say: the dovish tone sounds sweet but is not a lasting melody; though the data is strong, we must still wait quietly for tomorrow's nonfarm payroll battle to see the true outcome. Market players, do not forget the sword clashes of tomorrow because of one night's joy. Watch carefully and proceed cautiously, awaiting the dawn. $SNDK $SPCX
This wave of SPCX has clearly turned stronger after a volume breakout.
Previously, it oscillated around 140 for a long time, then a large volume bullish candlestick directly pulled it above 150, indicating that funds have started to concentrate in.
Now the price is stable around 150, oscillating at a high level without a significant pullback; instead, it is digesting profit-taking.
Currently, the key focus is on support near 150. As long as this level holds, it will continue to challenge the previous high of 152.19. Once a volume breakout occurs, there is potential for further short-term upside.
The idea is simple: look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, buy on breakouts, and follow the trend without shorting lightly.