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#沃勒：August inflation decides whether to raise interest rates in September
Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to previous highs, what exactly is being traded? How to manage positions before the weekend?
Brothers, these past two days BTC and Ethereum have been lively again, Bitcoin directly pushed back above 81,000, and Ethereum also surged near 2,500. The core driving force is Waller's dovish remarks, which cut the September rate hike expectations from nearly 70% down to 50%. The market is now trading on the logic of "cooling rate hike expectations + weakening dollar," with funds flowing back into risk assets.
But has the sentiment fully fermented? The fear and greed index has already reached 73, which is in the "greed" zone. Also, there is a signal to watch — altcoin ETFs have seen their first net outflow in nearly two weeks, and inflows into BTC have started to become intermittent, no longer the mindless buy-buy-buy rhythm. This indicates a weakening willingness to chase highs and a lot of short-term profit-taking.
Tonight the non-farm payroll data will be released, then it's the weekend. The weekend is notoriously low liquidity, with thin buying and volatility easily amplified. My approach is: no adding positions before the non-farm data lands; if the data meets expectations or is even weak, the market might surge again, but near the close I will actively reduce long positions, especially leveraged ones. I don't bet on weekend news, waiting for next week's CPI to find certainty opportunities $BTC 417 million $ETH dumped, but the price didn't crash?
On-chain analyst Yujin monitored that an institution transferred 172,546 ETH to a CEX over 4 days, about 417 million. The last 29,000 ETH (72.06 million USD) was transferred in just 9 hours ago, basically clearing out their position.
However, this institution sold at an average price of 2420-2430, and ETH not only didn't crash but surged to around 2530, rising over 5% in 24 hours.
Jinxi's view: The selling pressure was absorbed by the market. On one hand, Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, lowering the rate hike probability from 66% to 50%, causing funds to flow back into risk assets; on the other hand, Ethereum ETFs have had net inflows for 12 consecutive days, with BlackRock alone adding 72 million in one day. Institutions sell, ETFs buy, it's just a turnover of chips.
Market impact: In the short term, 2510-2530 is a resistance zone, and chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective.
What should retail investors do: Don't FOMO chase the rally, wait for a pullback near 2480 to look for opportunities. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ETH Ethereum continued its rebound momentum today (September 4), trading at $2519.50 at the time of writing, with a daily increase of about 4.81%; Binance platform quoted $2527.63, up 5.58%. Previously on September 2, ETH once dropped to around $2374, then quickly recovered over the next two trading days.
The core driver of this rebound is the dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Fed Governor Waller stated that as long as inflation continues to decline, he supports pausing rate hikes in September, with the probability of a September rate hike dropping sharply from 63% to 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell accordingly, and expectations of looser liquidity directly ignited the crypto market rebound. In the past 24 hours, about $464 million worth of leveraged contracts were liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for as much as 88%, and short squeezes further accelerating the price rise.
From a technical perspective, ETH has formed a rectangular consolidation pattern between $2420 and $2567, with short-term resistance near $2550-$2566. The daily RSI is about 61.4, in a neutral to slightly strong zone. It has risen about 3.08% over the past 7 days and 34.65% over the past month, but is still down about 15.27% year-to-date.
On the capital side, potential selling pressure needs attention: institutions transferred 142,800 ETH (about $345 million) to centralized exchanges within 4 days, while on the same day, ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $48.2 million, and BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $101 million, indicating a divergence of institutional funds between the two major crypto assets.Brothers, at this position right now, you can't blindly chase gains or panic sell. Tonight, the real direction will still be decided by the non-farm payrolls.
$ETH is currently around 2514, previously pulled from 2388 to 2530, the 15-minute moving averages are starting to converge, indicating a high-level consolidation. Holding 2500 is relatively strong; only a volume breakout between 2530–2550 has a chance to push to 2600; breaking below 2480 targets 2460, and losing 2440 clearly turns bearish.
$BTC is also relatively strong, with 80,000 being the key dividing line. Staying above 80,000 still has the potential to push to 81,000–82,000; falling below 78,000 indicates weakening recovery, and losing 76,000 means turning bearish again.
Tonight the focus remains on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wages. ADP was only 38,000, initial claims 206,000, plus the previous value of -23,000, employment is indeed cooling down. I tend to think this non-farm payroll won't be particularly strong.
But the weak non-farm expectation has already been partially priced in; even if it meets expectations, the positive effect might already be realized. So tonight, don't just look at the non-farm numbers; unemployment rate and wages are the most likely factors to suddenly cause BTC and ETH to reverse.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Top 5 Stocks Users Are Most Interested in This Week: Strategy Increases BTC Holdings by 4,603 After Two Months, Crypto Concept Stocks and AI Hardware Chain Strengthen The five stocks most watched by users this week are MSTR, CRCL, DELL, AMC, and FAMI, with focus covering BTC treasury, stablecoins, AI servers, and cinema sectors. Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 4,603 coins, worth about $369.7 million, for the first time in two months. MSTR and CRCL both rose over 8% during the week; Dell surged about 13.24% driven by strong AI server orders; AMC and FAMI lagged behind. This week’s capital preference shows a clear dual-mainline structure: crypto treasury and AI hardware are favored, while sectors lacking catalysts are marginalized. MSTR rose about 8.94% during the week. Strategy disclosed a purchase of 4,603 BTC worth about $369.7 million this week, marking its first increase in two months. Previously, Bitcoin rebounded as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts heated up. Strategy’s resumption of buying is seen by the market as a signal of institutional-level buying returning, with MSTR, as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, regaining capital pursuit. CRCL rose about 8.04% during the week. Federal Reserve officials reiterated the regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins, and rising policy expectations drove a collective rebound in crypto concept stocks, coupled with continuous growth in USDC supply, strengthening Circle’s fundamentals and policy outlook.The market sentiment in the early morning feels like a gentle warm breeze passing by. Bitcoin's rebound is not accidental; behind it lies a subtle resonance between macro expectations and capital flows. Federal Reserve Governor Waller's remarks have added room for imagination about a pause in rate hikes in September, provided inflation continues to cool down; this expectation directly suppresses the dollar's movement, and a weak dollar often serves as fertile ground for risk assets to stretch their muscles 🌿. On the capital side, there is no lag either—Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $101 million in a single day, indicating that professional funds are tentatively returning, and market sentiment is shifting from defense to active observation.
However, the foundation of this mild rally is not very solid. The real direction will be set by upcoming U.S. employment data and the September FOMC meeting. If employment numbers overheat or the inflation decline process is hindered, the previously accumulated optimism may quickly evaporate, and the speed of market reversal usually leaves little time to react ⚠️. Currently, this wave of the market is more about pricing in expectations in advance rather than settled facts. Patience and letting the data speak might be more worthwhile than chasing short-term fluctuations. $BTC
Risk warning: There is uncertainty in macro data and policy paths; the market may turn quickly, so please manage your positions rationally.As the quote says, after Waller's speech yesterday, next week's CPI data is the key factor in deciding whether the FOMC will raise rates on 9/16, but tonight's major nonfarm payroll data cannot be overlooked either, as the anxious market continues to seek confirmation through macro data.
Currently, the market's expected unemployment rate is 4.1%, and the expected nonfarm payroll increase is 56,000.
If the final announced figure shows a significantly higher increase in employment than expected and a lower unemployment rate than expected, the probability of a rate hike will likely rebound to around 70%.
If the increase in employment is slightly higher than expected and the unemployment rate meets expectations, the probability of a rate hike may slightly rebound to 60%.
If the increase in employment is lower than expected and the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the probability of a rate hike will further decline.
If the nonfarm payrolls continue the previous trend of significant downward revisions, gold and U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, but U.S. stocks and BTC may initially rise and then fall, pricing in recession risks.
Assuming Waller is actually cooperating in managing expectations, a reasonable sequence might be:
Waller first raises the rate hike probability to 60%–70%
↓
Waller then lowers it back to about 50% before the blackout period to eliminate one-sided crowding
↓
Strong nonfarm payroll performance restores the probability to about 60%
↓
Hotter PPI and CPI push the probability to 75%–90%
↓
A 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, which does not constitute a true surprise attack
So whether this Fed performance is scripted or not depends on tonight's major nonfarm payroll data. After the data is released, closely watch the changes in CME rate hike probability.#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
The crude oil situation is getting more and more complicated.
In Saudi Arabia, August exports dropped to the lowest since 2017, with prices raised for the US and lowered for Europe in September. The Red Sea route is being targeted by Houthi forces, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still bombing refineries. But the Strait of Hormuz suddenly reopened; Goldman Sachs said 15 million barrels of crude successfully passed through, with another 5 million barrels on "dark ships" sneaking by. The result is oil prices surging and then falling back, with Brent hovering around $90.
The impact on the crypto world boils down to three words— inflation expectations.
Saudi exports can't pick up, so oil prices can't be suppressed. If oil prices can't be suppressed, inflation expectations won't come down. If inflation expectations don't come down, the Federal Reserve won't dare to shift to easing. Without Fed easing, BTC struggles to break out independently.
Currently, the news of Hormuz reopening has temporarily curbed the upward momentum of oil prices, but this is a short-term fluctuation driven by news. The real pricing power of oil lies in the actual recovery of Saudi exports and the Red Sea route, not Goldman Sachs' estimated data.
What do you think?
$BTC #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
September FOMC Final Simulation: Why a Hawkish Pause Is the Fed's Optimal Solution
Only ten days remain until the September 15 Federal Reserve decision.
Combining Waller's latest statements with employment data, the Fed's most likely trump card in September is neither aggressive rate hikes nor the policy shift many fantasize about, but a highly deterrent "hawkish pause."
Temporarily freezing rates at the current level can avoid an overly aggressive tightening at critical nonfarm payroll and inflation junctures that could trigger a liquidity crash, while also giving the Fed a buffer period to observe the economy in Q4.
But do not simply equate a pause with a bullish market.
Powell is well aware of the power of managing expectations. Once the September rate hike pause button is pressed, it will inevitably be followed by extremely stern press conference statements and a steeper dot plot. The Fed will repeatedly signal to the market that high rates will be maintained longer and will completely shatter expectations of rate cuts within the year. As long as initial jobless claims remain low, they hold the initiative to hike rates again at any time.
The more covert damage comes from liquidity withdrawal. As long as the balance sheet reduction continues and real rates remain high, even if the benchmark rate stays unchanged, off-exchange inflows into the crypto market will struggle to sustain. Historical experience shows that during hawkish pauses, bulls are often most prone to complacency, and chasing rallies often leads to deep losses from a second round of valuation adjustments.$SNDK Yesterday, the US stock market was generally bullish, with all major broad-based indices rising across the board, and many tech stocks showing large single-day gains of over ten points. However, storage leader SNDK charted an independent course, trading sideways and failing to keep pace with this rebound. Many people now have a question in mind: Is the current sideways movement a buildup before a rally, or a sign of funds quietly exiting and a precursor to a sharp decline? Let's first clarify the overall market environment. On September 3, the US stock market experienced a broad recovery: the Dow Jones closed up 1.18%, the S&P 500 rose 1.06%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.4%. Along with dovish remarks from officials, US Treasury yields fell in tandem, easing market concerns about Federal Reserve rate hikes for the time being. Normally, a declining interest rate environment is a solid positive for AI, semiconductors, and storage sectors, so logically, SNDK should have ridden this wave to start a rebound. However, the reality is quite the opposite. SNDK's latest closing price hovered around $1553, maintaining a sideways pattern despite sector tailwinds. Looking back at this stock's past performance, it experienced a phenomenal super rally over the past year, with its share price increasing by several tens of times. After such a prolonged rise, the market's expectations for NAND flash price increases and explosive AI data center storage demand have basically been fully priced into the current stock price. The positive factors have already been realized in advance, which is an unavoidable current reality. Of course, its fundamentals remain solid. AI large models continue to expand, and data centers for SSWhy is Bitcoin rising?
The reasons are not due to events that happened today:
1. The price has been consolidating around 77,000 for the past six days. Today alone, it jumped to 81,000. This leap is the release of accumulated expectations.
2. Since August 17, about $3 billion has flowed into ETFs. There have been nine consecutive trading days of buying.
3. In the last week of August, there was $1.92 billion in a single week. This was the strongest week of 2026.
4. The real key is September 15. The Senate will vote on the cryptocurrency regulatory bill that day.
5. The market has already priced in this date. Buying before the bill passes, planning to sell after it passes.
6. The White House meeting clearly supports the bill, indicating that the U.S. will not give up its leadership in cryptocurrency.
7. The U.S. dollar is weakening. When the dollar falls, funds flow into risk assets; this pattern has never changed for decades.
8. The funding rate is around 0.007%. This is very low and has only one meaning: this rise is not driven by leverage but by real buying.
9. Ethereum rose 4.7%, Solana rose 5.9%. Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, indicating rising risk appetite.
10. The fear index is 65. It is in the greed zone but not extreme.
Now, the truly critical point.
Most of these points are unrelated to today. This is the inflow of funds that started in mid-August and a vote twelve days later. The excitement is real, but the underlying structure is more fragile than expected. When one person's position outweighs the sentiment of the entire sector, what exactly is the market trading? Yesterday, he was just one candlestick away from liquidation, and today he turned around and added another $5.7 million HYPE long position at an entry price of 82.93. This kind of operation, to put it nicely, is faith; to be blunt, it's testing the depth of liquidity with his life. And his ETH long positions have already piled up to $99 million, with an average price of 2427, while on the BTC side, he is holding $31.55 million at an average price of 77446. The total position easily surpasses $130 million. I've been watching this number for a long time, and honestly, it makes me a bit uneasy. On the surface, this looks like a confident bottom-fishing by a big player, but from another perspective, it precisely indicates that the funds daring to take heavy positions in the current market are all of this high-risk, bleeding-edge type. Real allocation-type funds are unlikely to enter under such volatility. So the key issue is not whether he can make money, but that his $130 million long position itself is a pillar of market sentiment. If he can hold on, the market feels the bottom is near; if he wavers even slightly, the chain reaction in derivatives will teach everyone a lesson. There's a detail I pay special attention to: his ETH position average price is 2427, and just yesterday, ETH moved only a few dozen dollars, almost wiping out his tens of millions of dollars in positions. This shows his liquidation price is not far from the current price, meaning the market actually knows where the trigger point is. Under these circumstances, any piece of negative news could not just slowly drag the price down... Federal Reserve Governor Waller's latest remarks rewrote the macro narrative of the crypto market within hours. He hinted that if inflation continues to decline, he may support holding interest rates steady this month, causing the market's bet on a September rate hike to drop from about 63% to 48%. This is not the start of an easing cycle, but the "cooling of tightening expectations" alone is enough to trigger sensitivity in risk assets. Bitcoin responded quickly, with its price rebounding near $80,000, retaking a key technical decision point. According to Reuters data, $82,793 constitutes a critical resistance; a successful breakthrough could theoretically target the $90K range. However, it is still premature to declare a trend reversal at this moment. A more pragmatic observation is whether the price can hold firmly above $75,000, while buying continues to absorb supply around the $80K level. The next directional clue may come from Ethereum. Once ETH starts outperforming BTC, the market nature could shift from Bitcoin-led to broader risk rotation, with SOL, XRP, and BNB following to confirm. In the Layer 1 sector, the relative strength of SUI, APT, AVAX, and NEAR deserves independent observation; and if DeFi cores like AAVE and UNI see increased capital inflows, it indicates liquidity is truly penetrating deeper into the ecosystem. Infrastructure represented by LINK and ONDO, as well as high-elasticity narratives like TAO and RENDER, may also gain attention as risk appetite spreads. On the macro front, next week's inflation report remains an unavoidable variable. Waller clearly stated that if the data unexpectedly heats up, the option to raise rates will be reconsidered.What the market really needs to watch today is tonight's 8:30 PM US Nonfarm Payrolls.
Earlier, the ADP small nonfarm already gave a signal:
August added 38,000 jobs, below the expected 47,000 and also below the previous 44,000.
Simply put, employment is starting to cool down.
This is also why US Treasury yields fell from the intraday high of 4.82% to around 4.78%, and the market's expectations for a September rate hike have cooled accordingly.
But the problem is, ADP is just a warm-up.
What truly influences the Fed's judgment are tonight's nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to be weak, it indicates the labor market is indeed slowing, weakening the Fed's reason to raise rates further, and risk assets might breathe a sigh of relief.
If nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, especially if wages remain strong, the market will worry again:
Is inflation still uncontrollable?
Does the Fed need to remain hawkish?
Will US Treasury yields surge again?
So tonight is not just about one employment number, but three things:
Whether new employment has clearly cooled;
Whether the unemployment rate continues to rise;
Whether wage growth is sticky.
My understanding is simple:
What the market fears most now is not a slightly weak economy, but "an economy still strong, inflation still sticky, and interest rates still high." If employment cools but doesn't collapse, that is actually the most comfortable scenario for the market.
Because it means a soft landing for the economy is still possible, and the Fed has reason to gradually pivot.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first key test for the September market. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Only as an auxiliary, not as an opening signal.
Before discussing on-chain transfers, one thing to clarify: coins moving from address A to address B. It doesn't tell you whether the person is increasing position, decreasing position, arbitraging, settling, paying taxes, or internal exchange transfers. Hot wallets entering exchanges often mean preparing to sell; cold wallets withdrawing funds might just be switching custody. Without counterparty data, transaction price, or time alignment, interpreting it as a "signal to follow" is just adding your own story.
When I analyze the market, I scan for whales to verify: whether large inflows to exchanges during a certain period coincide with spot market dumps in the same hour, or if ETF redemptions match on-chain outflows. If they match, they serve as corroborating evidence. If not, discard them. A single transfer alone is not enough to place an order.
If you really want to open a position, still look at trades, funding rates, spot depth, and your own price levels. Whales can serve as warning lights, but not as steering wheels.Key Points: Short squeeze itself is not a trend confirmation signal; it is merely a forced liquidation behavior in a leveraged market. The key is to observe the follow-through strength after the squeeze ends.
In this round, over $140 million worth of shorts on BTC, ETH, XRP, and BNB were forcibly liquidated. Much of this rapid rally comes from passive buybacks of short positions, which is mechanical buying and does not equate to new incremental spot capital entering the market.
- Short squeezes can quickly break resistance, but this buying is "forced liquidation," not active bullish buying; once short liquidations are exhausted and spot support is lacking, the price tends to quickly give back gains. This is why chasing the first big green candle is very risky.
Key verification signals to track (after the short squeeze):
1. Market Leaders (BTC, ETH)
1. BTC: Focus on whether it can hold the recently reclaimed range rather than immediately falling back after a spike.
- It’s not about momentarily piercing 82,800, but about closing above it on 4-hour and daily charts and maintaining gains for several consecutive days, which indicates real bullish support.
- If it spikes then quickly falls back below 80,000, it indicates this rally is mainly a leveraged short squeeze.
2. ETH: Recently, ETF funds have been continuously flowing out. Watch whether buyers can effectively absorb selling pressure.
- If BTC holds steady but ETH still can’t break 2,550, it shows ETH’s fundamentals are weak and it is still passively following the rally.
2. Market Breadth: Confirmation from high-beta coins
- SOL: Observe if high-elasticity demand returns and whether SOL can show relative strength during BTC consolidation;
- XRP, BNB: Check if there is broad market participation in the rally, not just BTC-driven;
- Layer1 (SUI, APT, AVAX, NEAR, SEI):
Strong rotation signal: BTC remains stable while multiple Layer1s outperform the market, indicating capital is starting to diffuse and supporting continuation of the rally; if only BTC is strong and other chains are stagnant, the rally’s sustainability is questionable.
3. On-chain DeFi capital inflow
DeFi is a thermometer of market liquidity:
- Lending: AAVE; DEX: UNI, CRV; Yield: PENDLE
If these assets strengthen simultaneously, it indicates on-chain capital inflow and liquidity warming; otherwise, persistent DeFi weakness suggests only derivatives leverage is active, with no spot capital entering.
4. Institutional infrastructure sector
Institutional capital does not just chase narratives; it prioritizes infrastructure:
- LINK (oracle), ONDO (RWA) represent foundational layers adopted by institutions. The performance of these sectors can indicate whether institutional incremental capital is entering.
5. Speculative themes and Layer2
- Expansion of speculative liquidity: AI concepts TAO, RENDER, FET require overall market liquidity expansion for sustainability;
- Layer2: ARB, OP must show relative strength in the next phase of the rally to avoid being a BTC solo act.
Two possible outcomes:
✅ Scenario A: Short squeeze evolves into a real trend
Price holds at high levels, spot volume expands, ETF inflows stabilize, and sector rotation broadens (public chains, DeFi, infrastructure all strengthen). In this case, the short squeeze is just the start of a major uptrend.
❌ Scenario B: Merely a leveraged impulse rally
After the squeeze ends, price quickly reverses down; spot volume does not expand, ETF inflows do not improve, and altcoins fail to follow through. This means the rally was just a leveraged liquidation stampede, ending the uptrend and returning to consolidation.
Key question: Can we trust the rebound only after BTC holds the breakout level for multiple days?
- A single-day breakout is not enough; time verification is needed: short squeezes often show "one-day surge, two-day pullback."
- Pure short squeeze is insufficient to confirm a trend; multiple signals from spot, ETF, and sector breadth must resonate to justify increased risk appetite.
Macro risks: Tonight’s non-farm payrolls, upcoming August CPI, and September FOMC decisions can change overall market liquidity expectations at any time and directly interrupt this rebound.
Practical takeaways:
1. Don’t FOMO chase just because of one big green candle; after a short squeeze, it’s better to wait for confirmation signals, sacrificing some profit to avoid being trapped by spikes.
2. Spot: Prioritize waiting for pullback to verify support; don’t chase the high after a squeeze;
3. Contracts: Leveraged markets are highly volatile; after a squeeze ends, sharp corrections are common, so strictly use stop-losses. $BTC $ZEC stands above 1,000, I'm turning bullish — the bullish conditions I firmly set yesterday have been met on the funding rate.
The two conditions given yesterday were: funding rate turning positive, and spot trading volume reaching 30% of futures volume. The funding rate has gone from -0.0018% all the way positive, with the last six periods all positive, now at +0.0044%. The first condition is met.
What truly makes me bullish is the position structure. Large holders' position ratio is 0.9353, retail accounts ratio is 0.6000, both below 1, so shorts still dominate; meanwhile, open interest is $610 million, up about 18% from the previous day. Shorts haven't closed out and positions are still expanding, so short squeezes still have fuel, which is the real reason the price can stand above 1,000.
But the second condition is not met: spot trading volume is only 10.2% of futures. This rally is always supported by leverage, not spot buying, so when it falls, it will be fast.
If it retests 950 without breaking it, I expect new highs. The bearish reversal conditions: large holders' position ratio rises above 1.05, or funding rate spikes above 0.05%.#BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest level since January, can the strength continue?
$BTC The current Bitcoin to gold ratio has risen to the highest level since January this year, indicating that Bitcoin's recent performance is significantly stronger than traditional safe-haven gold. Although both have risen simultaneously, Bitcoin shows clear strength differentiation with superior elasticity, capital enthusiasm, and institutional buying.
The core reasons for this rise in the ratio are:
First, the rebound in US tech earnings and increased market risk appetite make Bitcoin, as a growth-oriented hard asset, more favored by short-term funds;
Second, continuous inflows into Bitcoin ETFs give it more short-term speculative and swing trading attributes compared to gold, resulting in a rebound far stronger than the stable gold.
However, this strong momentum is unlikely to sustain a one-sided rally in the short term and carries obvious risks. Currently, the market is completely stuck at the non-farm payroll data window, with tonight's non-farm data being the biggest short-term variable.
If employment data is strong and rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rebound. Bitcoin's volatility is much greater than gold's, which will quickly lead to a scenario of "Bitcoin falling, gold resisting decline," causing the ratio to immediately fall back.
This round of rise is mostly driven by short-covering and sentiment repair, not by comprehensive inflows of new funds.
Bitcoin has currently returned to the high near 79,000, with dense selling pressure above and weakening upward momentum, while gold's safe-haven base is more stable with smaller pullbacks. Once market sentiment turns cautious, Bitcoin's relative advantage will quickly disappear.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the BTC/gold ratio is overall oscillating upward, with the digital gold attribute continuously strengthening.$LINK Today's core narrative for LINK is its partnership with payment giant Bottomline.
· Bridging traditional payments: Bottomline is a global Top 3 SWIFT service provider, processing over $16 trillion in payments annually and serving more than 600 banks. This partnership enables these banks to connect to blockchains via Chainlink's CCIP protocol, completing settlements on-chain without replacing existing core systems.
· Fundamentals improving: On-chain LINK supply has decreased from 132 million to 112 million over the past three months, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages forming a golden cross. Additionally, the US Department of Commerce previously put GDP and other data on-chain, strengthening fundamental expectations.
· Key price levels: 10.75-10 and even $7.
This partnership paints a very promising picture (the ideal is quite ambitious), but it is still at the proof-of-concept stage with no actual transaction volume yet.
I believe LINK's fundamentals are indeed strengthening, but the short-term $12.50 level is critical. Breaking above it would be more optimistic; if not, some consolidation is normal.Let Brother Dao explain
The non-farm payroll on Friday night is the last major data before the September rate meeting, basically setting the short-term direction.
First, let's talk about the current situation in hand.
The previous ADP employment data has already worsened, with only 38,000 new jobs added, below expectations; the Fed's own Beige Book also mentioned that employment growth is slowing in most regions, showing a clear cooling in employment.
But here comes the contradiction: the market still has a 62.3% probability betting that the Fed will raise rates in September.
Why hasn't the rate hike expectation dropped despite weak employment? The root cause lies in inflation.
Core PCE inflation has been stuck at 3.3% and won't go down; currently, more than half of the price sub-items have year-on-year increases exceeding 3%, showing strong inflation stickiness, so the Fed dares not ease up. Officials' speeches are also cautious, only saying to wait and see, unwilling to directly state no rate hike.
The focus is on tonight's non-farm payroll:
1) If the non-farm data continues to be poor: employment weakens continuously, even if inflation is stubborn, the market will think the Fed won't dare to hike aggressively, and rate hike expectations will drop, which is short-term positive for crypto prices;
2) If the non-farm data rebounds and employment remains strong: both employment and inflation pressures can't be suppressed, then rate hike expectations will heat up again, and the short-term market is likely to face pressure and weaken.
Now it's a tug of war between weakening employment VS stubborn inflation. Tonight's non-farm payroll is the key to breaking this balance; the data's quality will directly determine the overall trend before the rate meeting. $ETH Brother Dao has finished, think it over, think it over carefully Tonight is not the Fed decision; at 20:30 we will see the US August non-farm payrolls. The real FOMC is at 02:00 Beijing time on September 17. Before the event, the market is pricing in a 25bp rate hike in September with a 55–60% probability; 25bp itself is not large, but the big deal is the path repricing: strong non-farm payrolls, hot wages, falling unemployment rate → rate hike probability surges to 70–90%, USD/real rates suppress $BTC /$ETH, prone to spikes; weak or downward revised data → probability falls back, crypto market rebounds first but beware of recession. Focus on revisions, unemployment rate, and hourly wages, not just the headlines.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 📝 Today's share $ZEC
ZEC breaks through $1000, how much further can the privacy coin rally go?
Triple drivers: Fed's Waller dovishly boosts risk appetite; ECC reveals breakthrough in PoW to PoS transition mechanism, staking yield expectations inject new narrative; shielded pool asset total hits record high, market confidence in ZK technology applications surges.
Up nearly 20 times in one year, cumulative 12-month increase close to 2000%. Miners are crazy—Bitmain Z15 Pro daily revenue reaches $59, payback in 85 days, official miner website sold out, second-hand premium. But the shorter the miner payback period, the more it often corresponds to a price phase top.
📈 Key levels:
🟢 Support: 930-940, downside target 890-900
🔴 Resistance: 980-1000, breakout target 1100
⚠️ Risk level: 870
🧠 My view: Hold the base position, but chasing longs at this level has very low cost-effectiveness. RSI is overbought, price deviates over 120% from the 200-day moving average, a pullback is almost inevitable. Better to miss out than to be wrong. Consider re-entry at the 800-850 range.
⛔ Risk reminder: Some CEXs still face the risk of delisting privacy coins. After a 20x increase in one year, profit-taking could come out rapidly as well.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $SNDK SanDisk oscillates in the 1515-1600 range
This range has been shaking for three days, try a light short position
MACD golden cross but momentum is limited, volume has not effectively expanded, direct breakthrough of 1630 is difficult.
News is mixed
Industry level — supply-demand imbalance continues, but price increase momentum slows
A recent Bank of America report points out that the spot market supply satisfaction rate in September has dropped below 50%, expecting DRAM and NAND spot prices in September to still have 10%-20% upside. Goldman Sachs also maintains the "upward trend" outlook for memory chips.
But note: According to Qianzhi Consulting data, although prices of all DRAM and NAND categories rose quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the increase has clearly slowed compared to Q2, with some chip price increases narrowing to within 10%. PC DRAM prices have risen for 7 consecutive months, but mobile LPDDR4X only rose 7% quarter-on-quarter — price increases are diverging.
Institutional views — huge divergence
· Optimistic side: AllianceBernstein sets a $3,000 target price; TipRanks gives a "Strong Buy" rating; fair value narrative suggests up to $2,126
· Cautious side: Morningstar sets fair value at $1,000, considering current price a 63% premium; after giving an 80% gross margin long-term target at August investor day, price fell 5% after hours
Potential risks
· Hedge fund David Tepper reduced SanDisk holdings in Q2
· Some analysts believe "recent management guidance failed to meet the market's overly high expectations for the AI storage cycle"
· Stock price has risen about 550% year-to-date, surged 2900% in the past year, valuation is significantly overstretched
The above personal views are for reference only.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #特斯拉股价走强，无人出租车成焦点 Waller's remark "Give inflation a chance" caused the rate hike probability to drop directly from 66% to 50%, and Bitcoin responded by surging to 82,000.
Last night, Bitcoin climbed steadily from around 77k to above 82k, gaining nearly 5%. The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement: if August inflation data continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
CME's September rate hike probability was instantly halved from 66% to 50%, almost like flipping a coin. U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold both rose—a rare simultaneous increase. Bitwise data shows their 90-day correlation has reached the highest level since 2020.
Meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer liquidated all BTC positions at 82,050, reasoning that ETF funds are flowing out, resistance lies around 83k-84k, and a pullback to the 70k-72k range is expected first. On the other hand, Yi Lihua boldly declared the bull market has arrived, seeing resistance near 86k. The two experts are completely at odds; listening to either feels like a gamble.
The real test is the nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 tonight. ADP was only 38,000, while the market expects nonfarm around 56,000. Below 50,000—bullish, possibly pushing prices higher; above 80,000—bearish, potentially crashing back to 76k.
Following that are next week's CPI and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, three key checkpoints like three gates. Let's not look that far ahead; let's wait for tonight's data release.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Regarding the Ethereum spot ETF, there is a noticeable shift in capital.
The latest data shows that the ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $48.2 million in a single day, ending a streak of 12 consecutive trading days of net inflows. Meanwhile, the BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $101 million again.
This is actually more interesting than simply looking at price ups and downs.
Although both are crypto assets, institutional funds are starting to diverge.
BTC is attracting capital back.
ETH is experiencing a phase of profit-taking.
This does not necessarily mean institutions are bearish on ETH; it more likely indicates that when the market shifts back toward defense or certainty, capital tends to prioritize BTC, which has stronger liquidity and broader market consensus.
So what’s really worth watching now isn’t "Is ETH going to drop?"
But a more direct question:
When capital can only choose one, do institutions prefer to buy BTC or continue to give ETH a chance?
$BTC $ETH $SOL in this round of rise, the buy orders are not from retail investors. The retail long-short ratio slid from 1.9851 to 1.9603; as the market moves up, they are reducing their positions; meanwhile, the large holders' position ratio pulled from 2.0673 to 2.2084. During the same period, chips moved from hands eager to cash out to hands willing to hold. Leverage shows no heat. After two periods of fees at 0.0065% and 0.0100%, it flipped to -0.0041%, meaning the money chasing longs did not keep up—this is the only part that doesn't cooperate, so I don't consider it short squeeze fuel. The lower shadow at 99.87 squeezed out the old leverage; the 870 million positions now hold new money. The direction is biased strong, with a stretch above 105.88. Conditions for a bearish reversal: the large holders' position ratio falls back below 2.07, and the close fails to hold 99.87. If both happen simultaneously, this logic is invalid.$BTC BTC has reclaimed $80,000—Is this rally really different?
The market got lively again today, with BTC briefly surging near $82,000. The driving force behind this isn’t a new story, but rather the Fed’s slightly dovish stance—Governor Waller stated that as long as inflation continues to cool, he supports keeping rates steady in September.
The market reacted quickly: rate hike expectations dropped → U.S. Treasury yields fell → risk assets collectively caught a breather. BTC, ETH, and a batch of crypto-related stocks rose accordingly, with over $400 million in shorts liquidated in the past 24 hours.
But don’t rush to call the bull market back just yet. This rally’s characteristics are clear: driven by macro expectations and short covering, it’s more speculative in nature.
What’s truly worth watching is whether BTC can turn $80,000 from a "resistance level" into a "support level". If upcoming employment and inflation data continue to leave room for rate cuts, liquidity will return and crypto still has room to run; but if data heats up again and U.S. Treasury yields rise, this rally could be reversed at any time.
So I’m focusing on two things first: whether BTC can hold $80,000, and whether capital is genuinely flowing in.ZEC surges to $1010, an eight-year high!
On the afternoon of September 4, ZEC was priced at about $1010, up 17.8% in 24 hours, with an intraday range of 933-976, reaching a new high since 2018. It has risen over 65% in 7 days and skyrocketed 20 times in one year.
Four major drivers: Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) rushing to the NYSE, PoW to PoS transition breakthrough, shielded pool lock-up hitting a historic high, and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance igniting the privacy coin sector.
However, the daily RSI is as high as 84, extremely overbought; Hyperliquid long-short ratio is only 0.72, with bears still stubbornly adding positions. There will definitely be a fierce long-short battle around the $1000 mark.
Recommendation: Do not chase the highs; the $1000 area is most prone to a double whammy of stop-loss hunting. Those holding should take profits in batches; those looking to enter should wait for a pullback below 900. ZEC has broken $1000.
You read that right, a new all-time high. Up over 23% in 24 hours, just a week ago it was hovering around 800, and today it jumped straight to four digits. Since the bottom last year, it has risen nearly 20 times.
But guess what? When it was at 970, a bunch of people were asking "Should we chase it or not?" Now that it's over 1000, the question has become — "Can we still chase it?"
What exactly is supporting this ZEC bull run?
First, the ETF. Grayscale converted the Zcash Trust into the first US spot ZEC ETF (ZCSH), launching on August 25. With a compliant entry point open, institutions can buy whenever they want.
Second, regulatory easing. The SEC ended its two-year investigation into the Zcash Foundation, clearly stating it will not take enforcement action. The label of "high-risk privacy coin" is being torn off.
Third, technical fixes. The Ironwood upgrade went live on July 28, fixing the previous forgery vulnerability in the Orchard pool. Although the "trust deficit" remains, at least it proves the team can and dares to fix issues.
Fourth, the return of the privacy narrative. Bitcoin’s anonymity is increasingly insufficient in the face of AI surveillance and on-chain analysis. When "privacy as a necessity" becomes consensus, ZEC, as a veteran player in the privacy sector, naturally gets revalued.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $ZEC $USELESS $EDGE $BTC has once again risen above $80,000, intensifying market divergence
$BTC has once again broken through the $80,000 mark. Market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes have cooled, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, serving as the macro driver for this rebound. After Waller's speech, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 70% to 50.2%, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
However, the market's bullish and bearish divisions are very pronounced. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes the bull market has started, with $86,000 becoming the next major resistance level; meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer reduced his entire BTC position near $82,050, warning that after ETF fund momentum weakens, the risk of a pullback should not be ignored. In August, spot BTC-ETF overall maintained net inflows, but at the beginning of September, funds began to fluctuate bidirectionally, and institutions have yet to form sustained buying.
Bitwise data shows BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to the highest point since 2020, reinforcing the narrative of currency depreciation hedging. BTC is gradually shifting from a pure risk asset to an inflation-hedging asset, a structural change far more significant than short-term price fluctuations.
The current core market contradiction is whether institutional funds and the gold linkage effect can help BTC absorb the large sell orders in the $80,000–$82,500 range. If volume increases and it stabilizes above $82,000, upward space will open; if it repeatedly rises and falls, the area around $82,000 will likely form a temporary top. The overall trend remains unchanged, but the market rhythm is shifting, requiring patient observation of market signals.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $CORE has been eagerly awaited for deposit and withdrawal opening on September 7th, making it hard not to suspect that the project team has already exposed quite a few issues.
System upgrades to fix vulnerabilities and the burning of 150 million tokens are only mentioned in announcements. When exactly will the burn be executed? Is there any public on-chain evidence? Are the burned tokens sent directly to a black hole address or handled in some other way? None of this has been clearly disclosed.
They clearly claimed the system upgrade would be completed within 48 hours, yet the exchange deposit and withdrawal channels remain closed, repeatedly delayed, purely testing retail investors' patience.
The entire message is full of various announcements but lacks solid on-chain proof, continuously issuing announcements with empty promises, with very few concrete actions, leaving many retail investors repeatedly pulled back and forth. $OKTA USDT
OKTAUSDT at 168.84 after a -0.97% drop. Price testing support zone; a rebound is likely if selling volume fades.
EP: 168.50 – 169.20
TP1: 172.00
TP2: 175.50
SL: 166.00
IOSTUSDT
IOSTUSDT sitting at 0.0006091 with a -0.96% move lower. Tight range action suggests possible short-term upward reaction from current levels.
EP: 0.000605 – 0.000615
TP1: 0.000635
TP2: 0.000660
SL: 0.000590Largest inflow day of the year, behind January's $840m inflow.
Went back to check: the last time $BTC ETFs saw such an inflow spike, the boomers ended up buying the local high.
Not saying that's what's happening here, but historically, high inflows haven't been the best sign.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC BTC has reclaimed $80,000—Is this time really different?
Today, the crypto market suddenly got lively again.
BTC has reclaimed $80,000, even briefly surging close to $82,000. The direct reason behind this isn’t some new narrative, but a slight shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance.
Fed Governor Waller stated that if upcoming inflation data continues to cool, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged in September.
The market immediately understood:
Expectations for rate hikes drop → U.S. Treasury yields fall → Risk assets catch a breather.
As a result, BTC, ETH, and a batch of crypto-related stocks rose together, with over $400 million in shorts liquidated in the past 24 hours.
But I think it’s still too early to shout “the bull market is back.”
Because this rally has a very obvious characteristic:
Driven by macro expectations + short covering.
What’s really worth watching is whether BTC can turn $80,000 from a “resistance level” into a “support level.”
If upcoming employment and inflation data continue to give the Fed room to cut rates, liquidity will return, and crypto might still have some play left.
But if the data heats up again and U.S. Treasury yields rise once more, this rally could quickly be reversed.
So, a more interesting question than chasing the rally now is:
Is $80,000 the starting point of a new market cycle, or just another rebound?
Personally, I’ll be watching two things first:
Whether BTC can hold $80,000, and whether funds are truly flowing back into the market.
Prices can deceive, but funds won’t.#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
The leader has something to say
Saudi Arabia's August exports dropped to 3 million barrels/day, the lowest since 2017. The Red Sea is blocked by Houthi forces, Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities have been bombed, and the diesel export ban has been extended to the end of the month. Supply is tightening on three fronts simultaneously.
But the Strait of Hormuz direction is loosening. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports have rebounded to 15 to 16 million barrels/day, and Vance said about 15 million barrels of crude passed through the strait the previous night.
Bulls and bears are battling over oil prices. Supply risks support prices, while the resumption of navigation suppresses them. The subsequent direction of oil prices directly affects inflation expectations, US Treasury yields, and risk asset pricing. In the short term, the resumption of Hormuz passage will suppress oil prices, benefiting long positions in Bitcoin.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Anonymous privacy coin $ZEC, after its rally, the funds will most likely rotate to $ZEN. Historically, ZEC peaks first, then $DASH and ZEN follow, with the one having the lower valuation ultimately benefiting from the main rise.
ZEN is not a post-attached mixing plugin. It inherits zk-SNARKs from the same source as Zcash, later proactively shutting down the main chain shield pool and migrating to Base to become L3, turning privacy into an application-layer capability: private swaps, cross-chain settlements, selective disclosure. Normal transfers default to non-private, which is a shortcoming but also why it can still remain on major exchanges.
Its liquidity is far less than BTC and ZEC, which is undeniable. But mixers are just a cover; ZEN bets on embedding privacy into the EVM. ZEC is priced for private payments, while ZEN remains an underappreciated privacy infrastructure.
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 What the market truly fears is not the delay itself, but the "positive expectations" starting to fail.
The CLARITY Act has been postponed again, causing a short-term bearish bias.
The Senate originally planned a procedural vote on September 15, but the House suddenly cut 8 voting days in September, meaning that even if the Senate passes it, the time left for the two chambers to reconcile and re-vote is significantly compressed. More critically, the bill itself still requires 60 votes to advance, and it has already been delayed due to disagreements within the Democratic Party over stablecoin yields, enforcement, and conflict of interest provisions.
The problem is that the market has already treated CLARITY as an important catalyst for the crypto industry in September. Especially for $XRP, which has recently been supported by ETF funds and regulatory expectations; now $BTC has climbed back near $80,000, once reaching $82,164 on September 3, but then falling back to about $80,848, indicating that the market is not lacking bullish narratives.
This news truly impacts the risk premium of altcoins. If the September 15 vote cannot proceed smoothly, XRP, $SOL, and exchange-related assets will first digest the "regulatory implementation" expectation gap; conversely, if the 60 votes suddenly come together, the previously suppressed regulatory premium is likely to return quickly.
My judgment: short-term bearish, but mid-term may form a bigger event-driven rally. The most dangerous thing for the market now is not the bill delay, but that everyone has already priced in "passage" in advance. The longer the delay, the easier it is for expectations to loosen. $SNDK Why did it suddenly rise? Is there insider knowledge about the nonfarm payroll data? That’s possible, but a more accurate explanation is that the market is "betting" the nonfarm payroll data will be weak.
Current market logic
The August nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects an increase of 55,000 jobs, rebounding from July’s -23,000. However, Wall Street forecasts vary greatly—optimists expect +125,000, pessimists expect -25,000, a difference of 150,000.
The real key is: if the data is weak → rate hike expectations cool down → tech stocks rise; if the data is strong → rate hike expectations heat up → tech stocks fall.
The real driving force behind SanDisk’s big rise today
The nonfarm expectation is just "background music." What truly ignited the stock price are these three things:
1. Fed’s Waller turns dovish (the biggest catalyst)
Fed Governor Waller said if inflation continues to improve in August, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement caused the market’s bet on a September rate hike to drop sharply from 63.2% to 50.2%. With less rate pressure, high-valuation tech/storage stocks directly benefit.
2. AI storage demand is still fermenting
· SanDisk and Kioxia announced about $31 billion investment in Japan to expand flash memory capacity by 2032
· Q4 revenue $8.97 billion (up 51% QoQ), data center revenue up 437%
· Forward P/E only 7x, institutions still consider valuation cheap
3. South Korean regulatory negative impact fully digested
On September 3, South Korea tightened leverage on ETFs causing a storage sector crash; panic selling was basically cleared today.
SanDisk’s rise today is not because "someone knew the nonfarm data in advance," but because:
1. Fed officials turned dovish → rate hike probability plummeted → tech stock valuation pressure eased
2. SanDisk + Kioxia $31 billion expansion plan → long-term growth logic strengthened
3. Technical rebound after panic sell-off on September 3
The nonfarm data tonight is the real test—if the data is much better than expected (>100,000), rate hike expectations will heat up again, and SanDisk may give back today’s gains; if the data is weak (30,000-70,000 "Goldilocks zone"), tech stocks can catch a breather.
I added 300 USD around 1526 yesterday, now my unrealized loss is only 45 USD (-3.27%), position is safe. Just wait for tonight’s data, no need to rush.The short squeeze isn’t the signal. What happens AFTER it is.
Crypto just ripped higher, and more than $140M in shorts got wiped out along the way.
$BTC, $ETH, $XRP and $BNB all pushed higher, forcing shorts to cover and adding fuel to the move.
But here’s the part I care about:
A short squeeze can move price fast. It cannot prove that real money is buying.
That’s why I’m not chasing the first green candle.
#DailyOrbit ETH's ETF funds have started to reverse.
The latest single-day net outflow is about $48.2 million, directly ending a 12-day streak of inflows. Conversely, BTC's spot ETF saw a reinflow of about $101 million on the same day.
This is quite interesting.
When ETH was surging earlier, funds followed suit.
Now the market is starting to pick assets a bit; BTC is pulling money back first, while ETH is experiencing outflows.
Ultimately, institutional money doesn't have much faith.
When the market is good, anything can be bought.
But when the market hesitates, they reorder their priorities.
BTC is often the first choice.
ETH needs to prove that it’s not just "the asset that gets funds only after BTC has risen."
So the real point to watch in this cycle isn’t how much ETH falls today.
It’s whether the funding gap between BTC and ETH will widen going forward.
$BTC $ETH Largest inflow day of the year, behind January's $840m inflow.
Went back to check: the last time $BTC ETFs saw such an inflow spike, the boomers ended up buying the local high.
Not saying that's what's happening here, but historically, high inflows haven't been the best sign.Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. This data is not expected to trigger another big market move but rather serves as a precursor to the FOMC meeting on September 15–16. Inflation remains the Federal Reserve's main anchor; employment would have to deteriorate significantly for them to change the interest rate path alone.
The forecast is an increase of about 55,000 jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and a year-over-year wage growth of about 3.0%.
For the Fed, employment is no longer the main anchor—it's inflation. Waller said if inflation cools down, they tend to hold steady in September. Non-farm payrolls alone are unlikely to prompt a rate hike or cut; the real decisive factor is next week's CPI.
The scenario is simple—if it meets expectations: market will fluctuate, waiting for CPI.
If weaker, with unemployment rising to 4.2%: rate hike pricing will retreat, and gold, silver, and BTC will benefit in the short term.Since the expansion of crypto treasury companies, index eligibility has become a tougher test than just buying coins.
Previously, the market viewed these companies simply: whoever bought BTC or ETH was a leveraged version of crypto assets. Now, more and more companies are converting their balance sheets into coin holdings, and index companies and institutional funds are asking a very practical question: are you really a normal operating company, or just a listed shell fund?
This question is especially critical. Whether you can enter the index affects passive funds; whether institutions can buy you as a stock affects valuation discounts; whether you can clearly explain your main business affects the patience of long-term capital.
I think the next phase is not about who shouts faith louder, but who can present the treasury strategy as a sustainable corporate governance system. Buying coins is easy, but being recognized by traditional markets is hard.
#加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 Wow! Real revenue has entered the treasury!
$ARB has surged from around 0.07, rising about 50% in a week, and today it hit 0.146 again, which really surprised many people. The underlying change is that Robinhood Chain is moving to Arbitrum Orbit, and after the mainnet launch, fee sharing has started to take effect: part of the protocol's net income is returned to the ecosystem, and part goes into the DAO treasury. In the past two months, about $1.3 million has been distributed to the ARB ecosystem, with the DAO's income reaching about $6.19 million in the first half of the year and a very high gross margin. On the books, it’s no longer just empty promises.
RWA also supports the narrative: the tokenized real asset scale on Arbitrum has exceeded $1 billion, with solid asset numbers and stablecoin transfer volumes, and on-chain settlements are running. But technically, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, and early trading volume on Robinhood Chain had a significant portion from bots/launchpads, so don’t take all of it as genuine "equity on-chain" demand. On 9/23, about 139.2 million tokens will unlock, so chip pressure must be factored into the plan.
In the short term, resistance is near 0.1406, and holding 0.13 is necessary to have a chance to reach 0.159; if it breaks down, look back to 0.105. The revenue logic is real, but the chips and rhythm are messy, so don’t use long-term faith as short-term leverage.
Not investment advice #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC ETH's recent exchange rate appears weak, but honestly, what I'm really worried about isn't it, but the BTC short position I hold.
The script was torturous at the start: Bitcoin surged on its own first, while ETH stagnated, which was nerve-wracking—fearing BTC would complete a one-sided move and the short position would be directly hit. But the later trend proved that ETH was just a bit slow, not truly weak.
After BTC surged and entered consolidation, ETH then started to take over, breaking through 2600 and directly launching an attack towards 3000. This kind of "Bitcoin rises first, Ethereum follows" rotation rhythm, once completed, actually makes the subsequent space more promising.
So those who shorted ETH probably have their fate sealed—going against the main upward wave, sooner or later they will be forced out.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $BTC and $ETH have been testing everyone’s patience lately.
I came in with a short bias, but the market hasn’t made that trade easy. $ETH is still showing strength, while overall sentiment remains uncertain.
For now, I’m not forcing a position just to be in the market.
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
Stay patient. Let the market show its hand first.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC OKX did something pretty explosive these past two days!
They directly launched perpetual contracts for the Pre-IPO of three AI giants, with codes ANTHROPICUSDT, MOONSHOTUSDT, and OPENA1USDT. Yes, that's Anthropic valued at over $60 billion, Moonshot known as China's OpenAI, and OpenAI's own equity token
$OPENAI $ANTHROPIC $OKB
When I saw the announcement, I almost thought I was mistaken. Previously, if you wanted to get involved with these AI companies, you had to go through the primary market private placements, which had ridiculously high thresholds. Now, as long as you have USDT, you can directly open contracts and go long or short at will. The wall between crypto and US stocks, OKX is basically digging it up with a shovel.
Last week I was complaining in the group that AI narratives in the crypto circle have always been just hype around concept coins—who can really deliver? But OKX directly brought the underlying assets on board. If this takes off, incremental funds might be attracted from outside the circle's stock market, since many stock traders envy Nvidia but dare not chase the highs. Now they can use leverage here to express optimism about OpenAI, which is very tempting.
Of course, the risks must be mentioned. These equity tokens are essentially synthetic assets; their prices track primary valuations and sentiment, not real stocks, and liquidity is shallow. Don't blindly apply stock trading tactics here.
This move is OKX's attempt to seize the initiative in AI assetization, maximizing short-term speculative value, but long-term depends on regulatory attitudes. For those who want to try, start with a small position to get a feel, don't treat it as real equity.Non-farm payrolls debut tonight, expect big market volatility
At 20:30 tonight, the heavyweight non-farm payrolls data will be released, with an expected increase of 56,000 jobs. July's non-farm payrolls turned negative, and ADP data was a cold surprise; tonight's data is highly uncertain.
Conclusion and consequences first:
Strong data → rate hike expectations rise, BTC under pressure and declines;
Weak data → rate cut expectations heat up, market rebounds.
But!!!
There is a high probability tonight's non-farm payrolls will miss expectations, based on two points:
1. Recent ADP small non-farm payrolls already surprised coldly; since March, ADP and non-farm trends have been highly synchronized and very indicative;
2. Plus, 350,000 Haiti-related identities expiring will further depress employment statistics; Bank of America institutional forecasts are also far below the market expectation of 56,000.
If the data weakens, it will amplify rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets.
At that time, BTC and ETH gains will set new ceilings! BTC above 830 and ETH above 2600 will no longer be a question.
Purely personal judgment, not directly heavy position betting; brothers should wait for the data release before following up.
$BTC $ETH ZEC breaks through $1000 to hit a new all-time high, privacy sector's independent rally continues On September 4, according to HTX market data, ZEC (Zcash) surpassed the $1000 mark, setting a new all-time high, currently priced at $1017, up over 23% in 24 hours, with the privacy coin sector heating up. Zcash is a veteran privacy public chain launched in 2016, whose core is the use of zk-SNARK zero-knowledge proof technology to achieve shielded transactions. Users can hide transfer amounts and addresses while retaining optional audit capabilities, making it one of the most representative assets in the privacy coin sector. Its total supply cap is about 21 million coins, with a supply schedule similar to Bitcoin, halving every four years. After each halving, new supply slows down continuously, increasing scarcity of tokens, which provides long-term supply-side support for the price. From the drivers of this rally: first, privacy narratives have regained market attention, with on-chain privacy demand discussions heating up, and capital tending to seek targets with independent narratives and scarce supply; second, spot market liquidity is concentrated in a few exchanges, so prices can rise quickly when momentum buyers flood in; third, ZEC's prior sustained strength has created a clear profit effect, and breaking the $1000 mark further strengthens momentum capital's positive feedback. It is worth noting that ZEC has risen from long-term lows to above $1000, a rare increase in the crypto market, indicating that current capital is clearly concentrating on vertical sectors like privacy, representing a structural independent rally rather than a broad market rise. Meanwhile, a single-day increase of over 23% and continuingBitcoin has reclaimed the $80K area but price alone doesn't explain how different the market looks underneath. One of the clearest ways to understand the current structure is through Bitcoin on-chain cost basis. And right now $BTC is trading significantly above the average price at which major holder cohorts acquired their coins. That matters. But it also creates a more complicated question: How much unrealized profit can the market absorb before older supply starts becoming active? Bitcoin Is W