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ETH Market Review: Officials' Statements and Subsequent Market and Capital Changes
⚠️This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Macro Expectation Reversal: Hawkish Officials Soften Stance, Market Reprices Interest Rate Path
Federal Reserve's Waller's public speech on September 3 marked a key short-term market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if subsequent inflation data continues to decline, he tends to keep the current interest rate unchanged at the September meeting; this statement directly reduced the market's September rate hike probability from the previous 63% to 48.4%, releasing the previously fully priced-in rate hike risk.
2. As an official previously holding a relatively hawkish stance, this statement was interpreted by the market as a further convergence of the Fed's current rate hike cycle. U.S. Treasury yields surged then fell back, the dollar index weakened, and risk assets collectively began to recover, with U.S. growth stocks and precious metals strengthening simultaneously.
3. Transmission to the crypto market: liquidity pressure marginally eases. ETH, as a high-beta risk asset, is significantly more sensitive to Fed policy changes than BTC; when interest rate expectations change, ETH's volatility tends to be greater.
2. Current Market and Capital Status
After the news, the market quickly reacted, with ETH starting a rebound from previous lows, but this is only an expectation recovery; fundamentals have not materially changed. On-chain and derivatives capital show: short-term shorts concentratedly covered, funding rates rapidly rising from negative; however, incremental capital entering the spot market is limited, mostly internal leveraged funds speculating on expectations, with no large-scale sustained net inflows. BTC followed the rebound but with weaker gains than ETH, indicating capital rotation within the market towards ETH.
3. Key Points for Future Observation
The current market is only trading on expectation recovery from officials' statements; everything still awaits verification from non-farm payroll and inflation data.
If subsequent employment and inflation data continue to cool, rate hike expectations will further fade, and ETH's rebound potential will expand; if data again shows strength, the officials' softened stance will be disproved, and the market will face renewed pressure and correction.
At this stage, do not treat the statements directly as a trend reversal signal; expectations can change rapidly, data is the ultimate benchmark, and leveraged positions must be risk-controlled.
$ETH #比特币再破80000美元 BTC vs ETH: BULL MARKET SHOWDOWN 🔥
**Current Price Check - 7:29 AM**
**$BTC $80,671 (-0.68%)** 🟠
No.1 | Digital Gold | 30D: +24.82%
**$ETH $2,497 (-0.34%)** 🔵
No.2 | Infrastructure | 30D: +30.90%
### **Here's the story:**
BTC is the leader. When it moves, the entire market follows.
ETH is the engine. DeFi, L2s, NFTs all run on it.
**90 Day Performance Tells It All:**
ETH: **+59.22%** vs BTC: **+32.57%.
#DailyOrbit The crypto market entered September 4th with a completely different picture compared to the previous correction session. $BTC has returned above the 80,000 USD mark, while $ETH is approaching 2,500 USD, $XRP surpasses 1.45 USD, and $SOL remains above 103 USD. What is noteworthy is not only the increase of each coin but the reason behind it: expectations for US monetary policy are rapidly changing ahead of important employment data. This is a session where the market is reacting to changes in macroeconomic expectations, rather than just aMany AI models collectively predict that tonight's non-farm payroll data will most likely be lower than expected.
If employment data weakens, it will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, suppressing the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Improved liquidity expectations theoretically directly benefit $BTC and $XAUT, both of which are assets highly sensitive to interest rates.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
But model predictions are not facts; non-farm payrolls often deviate significantly from expectations. We also need to watch the unemployment rate and wage growth simultaneously. If wages remain high, even if new employment falls short of expectations, the positive effect will be weakened.
#比特币再破80000美元
There is a high risk of spikes before and after the data release, so do not heavily speculate in advance. It is safer to wait for the complete data release and observe market support before making operational decisions. $XAU #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 Why did the market suddenly rally collectively last night?
No beating around the bush, here are 5 quick comments straight to the point 👇
Quick Comment 1: Waller signals "pause on rate hikes," market cheers first
The biggest variable last night was still the Federal Reserve.
Waller's latest statement is very clear: if the inflation data in August continues to improve, he tends to support keeping the current interest rate unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, he does not rule out voting to raise rates.
More importantly, the three-month core inflation has already dropped from about 4.8% in February to about 3.1% as of July, showing a clear downward trend.
So the market's first reaction is simple:
Rate hike expectations cool down → US Treasury yields fall → US dollar weakens → Risk assets collectively recover.
But note, Waller is not unconditionally dovish; the meeting on September 15–16 will still be data-driven to decide the direction.
---
Quick Comment 2: Geopolitical risks have not worsened for now, risk appetite returns
The Middle East remains the biggest "bomb" in the market.
But last night the market was not trading on a full escalation, rather on eased concerns about the conflict spiraling further out of control.
However, we shouldn't be too optimistic—latest news shows there are still military actions between the US and Iran, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been truly resolved.
So more accurately:
Geopolitical risk premium has cooled down but has not disappeared.
As long as oil prices do not spiral out of control, the market has some breathing room. Recovery above the $80,000 mark! $BTC retakes the key range
Intraday price surged above $80,800. Compared to last week's dip to $76,000 triggered by macroeconomic comments, this rebound leans more towards a secondary confirmation of the market structure. Many voices previously declared the rally over and predicted a bearish drop to $60,000, but the capital flow did not follow the pessimistic expectations, proving solid support at the lower levels.
The source of buying support is very clear: spot ETFs provide the most direct confidence. Recent consecutive days of net capital inflows have stabilized market sentiment. The overall inflow scale in August has significantly increased compared to July, making it one of the strongest months for capital inflows recently. Institutional channels are not just for show; real money is entering the market.
Market signals resonate simultaneously: Coinbase's premium relative to Binance has turned from negative to positive, indicating a warming of buying demand in the U.S. market. After several months of weakening premiums, this reversal shows that compliant funds and institutional buying are returning.
However, with the market warming up, blind chasing of highs should be avoided. The $80,000–$81,000 range is a pressure zone from previous rallies and pullbacks. True confirmation of bullish strength requires a pullback to hold $78,000–$79,000, accompanied by sustained volume and ETF capital inflows. Upcoming employment data and interest rate expectations will still cause significant volatility, so leverage positions must be conservatively managed.
In the short term, regaining $80,000 merely reflects bullish sentiment; only a valid breakout and hold above $81,000 will fully open the upside. Regarding position strategy, holding a base position can be patiently maintained following the structure, and those planning to enter the market can consider doing so.$BTC — I’M MORE INTERESTED IN THE RETEST THAN THE BREAKOUT.
Bitcoin reclaiming $80K is definitely constructive, but I don't think the first move higher is where I want to make my biggest decision.
BTC is now approaching the $82K–$83K resistance zone, and after a sharp rally, volatility can easily increase.
We could see profit-taking.
We could see a liquidity sweep.
We could see BTC reject resistance and come back down to test the breakout.
And honestly, that wouldn't necessarily be bearish.
A healthy retest can give the market a chance to establish whether buyers are actually willing to defend the reclaimed levels.
That's what I'm waiting for.
I don't want to buy simply because Bitcoin is moving quickly.
I want to see:
Breakout → pullback → retest → liquidity → confirmation.
If BTC holds the retest and buyers step back in, that gives me a much cleaner setup to consider increasing exposure.
Until then, I'm keeping things controlled.
The ETF picture also reinforces the need for selectivity.
Bitcoin demand remains supportive, but altcoin flows aren't showing the same level of conviction.
So I'm separating my exposure by risk:
Core: $BTC, $ETH
Growth: $SOL, $XRP
High beta: $HYPE, $ZEC
Higher risk: $KAITO, $BEAT
Different assets require different risk management.
I'm bullish on opportunities, but that doesn't mean I need to chase every green candle.
The market will give us another entry if the trend is real.
For now, I'm watching $82K–$83K closely and waiting to see whether Bitcoin can turn that resistance into support.
Let the breakout prove itself. 🔥$ETH was pressured by macro factors last night, but this morning it pulled back to 2490 thanks to initial jobless claims and dovish comments from Waller.
This morning, ETH traded in the range of $2490‑2511, having followed BTC's synchronous drop last night.
Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations combined with Waller's dovish remarks: as long as inflation falls in August, no rate hike will be considered in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from 63.2% to 50.4%. The market quickly recovered, BTC rose back to 80,800, and ETH rebounded by 4.8%‑5.3%, surging to 2494‑2511. The market feels like it was pressured by a meeting on Monday and then soothed with a comforting drink on Tuesday; sentiment briefly warmed but has not fully recovered.
The capital flow is even more interesting. ETH ETFs are not uniformly flowing in or out but rather appear to be internal position adjustments within institutions.
On September 2, spot ETH ETFs had a net outflow of 48.08 million: ETHA outflowed 53.35 million, while ETHB actually inflowed 52.92 million.
On September 4 during the US Eastern session, there was another net outflow of about 167 million, with FETH outflowing 217 million and ETHA counter-trending inflowing 149 million.
The current total AUM is about 2.778 billion USD, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 13.17 billion USD.
BlackRock's staking products and traditional spot ETFs operate independently, with Fidelity choosing to reduce positions first. Institutions are no longer blindly dollar-cost averaging but are reallocating positions among products with different maturities.
⚠️This is only a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; manage your positions and risk accordingly. A few days ago, the market was still discussing whether $BTC would continue to fall.
And now?
BTC has already climbed back above 80,000.
This is the most interesting part of the market — prices always move faster than sentiment.
Yesterday, BTC quickly surged from around 77K, once breaking through 82K, and the short-term structure has clearly improved.
But I won’t declare the bull market is back just because of one big bullish candle.
There is still one last hurdle:
82K–83K.
If it breaks through and holds here, it means the previous resistance is truly being digested, and we can continue to watch 85K, 88K, and 90K above.
If the breakout fails and it returns to around 80K, it doesn’t mean the trend is immediately over.
As long as around 78K can hold, this rebound structure still has observational value.
So the most important thing now is not to predict.
But to wait for confirmation.
If BTC breaks above 83K, I see room to grow; if BTC falls below 80K, I expect a pullback.
The rest, I leave to the candlesticks.Just looked at $AAOI, the AI data center optical module segment is really a love-hate relationship 😂
The stock price is now hovering around $100 (closed at about 100.38 on September 3, down 2.67%), but it has surged nearly 190% year-to-date, more than tripling in a year. However, it has already been cut in half from the May high of $233. Recently, they secured a huge order of over $200 million for 1.6T optical modules from a hyperscale customer. Q2 revenue hit a new high of about $192 million, non-GAAP turned positive, and Q3 guidance is still very strong.
However, at the end of August, they announced a maximum $600 million secondary offering plan, which caused dilution concerns and directly knocked the stock price down. Capacity expansion is also accelerating (Texas factory ramp-up), and people are still debating whether demand is enough to absorb these shares. Short-term volatility is real, but the long-term logic of following AI infrastructure remains.
What do you think? Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or better to wait and see? #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 #WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀
He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory.
Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉
To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually.
Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.Quick Take 1: Waller's stance softens, market re-bets on September policy Last night, what truly ignited risk assets was the Fed expectations. Waller sent a clearly dovish signal: if inflation continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September. The market immediately repriced, with concerns about a policy shift in September significantly easing. In short: Inflation does not worsen → Fed has no need to rush tightening → liquidity expectations improve. BTC, the Nasdaq, and high-beta assets naturally reacted first. Quick Take 2: Trump's speech temporarily cools geopolitical risks Trump continued to send easing signals last night, stating that Middle East military actions will not last indefinitely, and risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have somewhat eased. The geopolitical premium originally priced into oil has started to retreat. With oil price pressure easing, the market's favorite scenario emerges: war risk declines + energy prices cool + risk appetite returns. Funds naturally begin to shift from defense back to equities and crypto assets. Quick Take 3: US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, but gold remains strong Bessent's latest statement continues to emphasize that US inflation is overall under control. Subsequently, US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index declined in tandem. Interestingly, gold remains strong, retesting around $4,500. This indicates the market is not simply "risk-on," but rather: dollar under pressure + rising rate cut expectations + ongoing safe-haven demand. Therefore, gold and BTC strengthening simultaneously is not contradictory.Last night, Bitcoin surged to 82100, now it has pulled back to 80686. The nature of this rally is different from what everyone expected, and I'll explain it in four layers. First layer, this is not really about the crypto market.
The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. The key is to consider what the market was thinking before this statement. The derivatives market had priced in a 50% to 70% chance of a rate hike in September—note, a hike, not a cut—so everyone was already bracing for a hit.
Then suddenly, he said it might not happen.
This is a difference in expectations. It's not about how big the positive news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectations. Second layer, this is a reduction of negative factors, not an increase in positive factors—these two are completely different. Real positive news means new money coming in, like ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negatives means those who were planning to exit no longer do, shorts are forced to cover, and this money was already in the market, just changing direction.
A move from 77100 to 82100, a 5,000-point jump, largely driven by short covering.
The problem with rallies driven by short covering is that once it's done, it's over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch.
Third layer, the foundation of this positive news is fragile.
Waller is just one governor, not the entire committee; his stance doesn’t mean the meeting decision is set.
Other fundamentals remain unchanged: oil prices still at $98, 10-year Treasury yields still at 4.75, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals.
Fourth layer, what should we do now?
I’ve changed my view to bullish; the market has indeed broken upwards, and this I won’t change $BTC $DOS is trading at $0.2452 (+1.57%), holding within its 24h range between $0.2283 and $0.2471.
Price is trading above MA5 ($0.2418), MA10 ($0.2405), and MA20 ($0.2367) on the 1H, bouncing off support at $0.2443.
Driven by $5.31M USDT in daily turnover and 21.65M $DOS in 24h volume, breaking $0.2471 resistance could pave the way for a test of $0.2543 resistance level.
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin's move back above $80,000 looks more like a credible risk reset than a fleeting headline spike. ETH is slightly stronger on the day, while SOL is lagging, which argues for selective participation rather than indiscriminate momentum chasing.
My stance is cautiously constructive. Holding the $80,000 area would strengthen the case that buyers are absorbing supply, but a fast loss of that level would turn this into another failed breakout.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit The short position strategy on Bitcoin perfectly played out ✅
A bearish signal was given at midnight, setting up short positions at resistance levels. The first target of 80800‑80500 was reached as expected, with the price pulling back to 80719, locking in profits!
No chasing the rally at the top; recognizing the stagnation signal, playing the resistance level and waiting patiently for the pullback. The market moved as anticipated.A crypto treasury company compounds only while its stock trades above the coins it holds. Slip below and it reverses: no premium to issue equity against, so the choices narrow to selling the stack, getting acquired, or levering up to fake a yield. ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH for buybacks at a 30% discount; Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 0.99. My read: it's the structural cost of one reflexive asset carrying a whole equity story.
NFA — DYOR.
#CryptoTreasuryDurability Last night, the market directly staged a "short squeeze". BTC surged from around $77,000, reaching a high close to $82,000, with a single-day increase exceeding 6% at one point. Meanwhile, mainstream coins like $ETH and $XRP also strengthened simultaneously, and the overall crypto market risk appetite clearly warmed up. The core catalyst for this rise was still the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently sent a clearly dovish signal: if the inflation data for August continues to improve, he tends to support pausing rate hikes in September; but if inflation heats up again, he will still consider raising rates. The market immediately reacted — the expectation for a September rate hike quickly dropped from about 63% the day before to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened in sync, and BTC followed through to break above $80,000. But here’s the question: Is the $80,000 breakthrough the start of a new rally, or just a short-term sentiment peak? I am now focusing on three key areas👇 📌 First resistance: $82,000–$83,000 This is a dense area of previous highs; if volume increases and it holds above this level, there will be a chance to further open up upside space. 📌 First support: around $80,000 Whether BTC can turn $80,000 from resistance into support after the breakout is very critical. If it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback, the bullish structure remains intact; if it falls back below, be cautious of seeking support in the $77,000–$78,000 range. 📌 More importantly, macro data The U.S. August CPI will be released on September 11, which is the real "test".From the perspective of position structure, the account's current total leverage ratio is as high as 6.13x, and all three assets (PIPPIN, TRUMP, BONK) are in short (sell) positions. This one-sided positioning indicates that traders are extremely bearish on the current market sentiment or are concentrating their attacks on specific hot tokens (such as Meme coins). Regarding trading details, the strategy clearly shows a tendency of "heavy positions to seek small profits":
PIPPINUSDT: Using 3x leverage, holding 600 units, with a return rate of 12.05%, but the actual profit is only 0.48 USDT.
TRUMPUSDT: Using 5x leverage, return rate 13.70%, profit 0.56 USDT.
BONKUSDT: Using 5x leverage, holding a huge amount (12.8 million units), return rate 9.96%, profit 0.81 USDT.
Core risk analysis: Asymmetric profit and loss: the total profit of the three positions is less than 2 USDT, but each position uses 4-8 USDT margin and bears about 5x leverage risk for this small profit. If the market moves against the position by 15%-20%, the principal will face a huge drawdown risk.
Meme coin volatility risk: The selected assets are all highly volatile Meme or politically themed coins (TRUMP, BONK). These assets are prone to "spike" movements, and 5x leverage can easily trigger forced liquidation under extreme volatility. Although the current maintenance margin ratio seems very high (1000%+), this is calculated based on the current small profit state; if prices rebound, the safety buffer will quickly disappear. Sorted it out a bit: Hawks think Iran is a mess, oil prices are soaring, so interest rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. Doves believe that the sharp rise in European and American bond yields approaching new highs makes rate hikes a further burden on bonds, plus pressure from Trump, so they probably won't dare to raise rates.
Hawks worry about "inflation getting out of control," while doves worry that "the bond market will crash first" $CL $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 The boot hasn't landed yet, and the knife hanging over our heads has been replaced by the CPI data.
He didn't turn hawkish; the treasury yields fell, providing short-term support for Bitcoin, allowing it to catch a breather tonight.
The decision power is handed over to the CPI: he clearly said whether to raise rates in September depends entirely on next week's CPI, which means BTC will be driven by CPI expectations over the next week, with the fuse for a sharp rise or fall set for next week.
Currently, the market's upside and downside are locked: he said if inflation improves, there will be a pause, which is short-term bullish, but also clearly stated that if CPI rebounds, rate hikes will resume, which is clearly bearish.
Bitcoin will most likely remain in a range-bound consolidation, making it difficult to see a strong one-sided trend. $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Ansem praises Bonk Guy as the strongest trader in public: repeatedly hitting major BONK, WIF, and Fartcoin rallies On September 4th, renowned trader Ansem highly praised trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live broadcast, calling him a top-tier trader who has long publicly shared his profits, losses, and trading logic. He reportedly earned over $10 million trading BONK, bought WIF when its market cap was under $10 million, and successfully caught major rallies of Meme coins like Fartcoin. Ansem stated that he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public settings. On September 4th, well-known crypto trader Ansem gave very high praise to trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live stream, calling him a top trader and saying he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public. Ansem listed several of Bonk Guy's public achievements: in the previous cycle, Bonk Guy openly shared his profit and loss records, something almost no one else did at the time. After publicly explaining his trading logic, he successfully caught multiple major Meme coin rallies, including earning over $10 million trading BONK; buying into dogwifhat (WIF) at a very early stage when its market cap was still under $10 million; and hitting the later explosive Fartcoin rally. Ansem emphasized that Bonk Guy has long publicly shared his trading ideas and has repeatedly successfully captured major Meme token rallies, with too many hits to count. In the crypto trading community, real-time public profit and loss sharing andIntroduction Although it may hit new lows again, it has already entered the cycle-level allocation range. The market, project, and coin information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Written by 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS At the end of August, $BTC closed at $78,564, recording the largest monthly gain since the bear market, at 25.04%. Looking solely at the market, this is enough to make one reassess the current phase: BTC spot ETF average daily net inflows rose from $11.65 million in July to $106.13 million, the entire market's average daily capital flow shifted from -$74.78 million to $199.19 million, and stablecoin average daily net flows turned from -$93.48 million to +$41.14 million; the price also climbed back above the short-term holder cost line of $70,936 and the real market price of $76,403. The question is not whether there is capital inflow, but why this round of funds is coming, what its nature is, and how long the entry conditions can be maintained. Has the roughly half-year bear market clearing been sufficient to complete the chip restructuring of the previous cycle, making August the starting point of a new cycle; or is this an overly intense bear market rebound temporarily amplified by event-driven funds and short squeeze when selling pressure is momentarily exhausted? By the end of August, the halving cycle bear market has already entered its late stage in terms of time. The eMerge IS system still positions August as the transition phase from the decline period to the bottoming period; EMC Labs believes it is time to consider whether the "old cycle is ending and the new cycle is beginning to open up".$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $CORE 【CORE dropped again, is the problem really solved?】
CORE barely managed to rebound to around 0.0236, but it couldn't hold. The price keeps fluctuating, and the market simply isn't buying it.
The hard fork was indeed executed, permanently burning over 150 million CORE tokens, and malicious validators can no longer profit. But none of the core questions have been answered: exactly how much CORE was overissued? Have any extra tokens already entered the market? How exactly did the vulnerability occur?
The technical review report is still not released, and the official statement just says "user asset security" and that's it. Exchange restrictions haven't been fully lifted either.
You say this is all staged? Can't say for sure, but the project's "half-eat, half-hide" attitude really makes it hard to trust. A short-term deflation narrative rebound is fine, but long-term trust? Sorry, without the report, the risk remains. Do you trust it or do you trust me, Qin Shi Huang?Brothers, Bitcoin is making a comeback again. The latest BTC price is around 80800-81200, up over 5% in 24 hours, once approaching 82000 during the session. It pulled back directly from yesterday's low near 77000 to 81000, rising more than 4000 points in one day. ETH simultaneously broke above 2500. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations exceeded $400 million, with short positions accounting for over 80%. The fear and greed index rose from 63 to 65, with sentiment moving from "greed" toward "extreme greed." What's different this time compared to the breakout on August 25? Last time it was a direct surge—rushing up in one go without sufficient turnover, resulting in failure to hold, and a drop back to 77000 within three days. This time, the bottom was confirmed before the rally—triple bottom confirmation at 77000, with lows continuously rising, and only after stabilizing above 80000 did the chasing sentiment activate. A breakout that has been tested with pullbacks, turnover, and support confirmation is more reliable than the first surge. Four things are pushing simultaneously. First, rate hike expectations dropped sharply from 63% to 50%. Fed Governor Waller sent dovish signals—if August inflation data continues to improve, he will support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped directly from 63.2% to 50.4%. Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 4.76%, and the dollar weakened. The macro headwinds are fading. Second, ETFs are continuously accumulating. On September 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of $358 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $269 million$BTC first retreated then followed the US stock market recovery, currently around 81000. The key level between bulls and bears is 80000; only a stable hold can talk about continuation, while losing it would return to the 77000 rebound starting point. #比特币再破80000美元
$ETH around 2500, with 2600 above confirming rebound strength, and 2450 below as the defense line; losing it means weakness.
$SOL around 104, first watching the 100 whole number support on the pullback; if broken, its elasticity is greater than $BTC and $ETH, making it easier to be swept on non-farm payroll night.
The three major mainstreams rebound simultaneously but have not shown independent trends; tonight will follow interest rate pricing. About $400 million liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, mostly shorts, indicating rebound squeeze; fees remain moderate, and leverage has not been cleared. Funds are mostly cautious.
US stocks rebounded for the second consecutive day, $QQQ +1.40%, $SPY +1.06%. AI leads the gains, $NVDA closed at 228.45 and announced about $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face; $META +3.01%, $MSFT +2.68%, $AAPL closed slightly higher. Waller said if inflation continues to decline, he tends to hold steady in September; the decline in US Treasury yields is the main reason for the rebound. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Tonight's non-farm payroll is the key to setting the tone for September's path; overall, it is still a policy expectation-driven recovery, so positions remain cautious. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 A few days ago, we were still discussing Strategy hoarding BTC, Robinhood's on-chain business heating up, and Circle's stablecoin expansion. But once risk appetite returned, funds rushed directly into high-volatility assets. $MSTR surged about 17% in a single day, $HOOD nearly 16%, $CRCL also rose about 16%, and $BMNR likewise recorded double-digit gains. In contrast, the US stock market only saw moderate gains, while crypto-related stocks clearly exhibited higher Beta. The logic behind this is actually simple: BTC rises → crypto market sentiment recovers → funds chase high-volatility stocks. Especially companies like MSTR, which are highly tied to BTC assets, act like a leverage layer on top of BTC's market when conditions are good; while HOOD and CRCL are more driven by trading activity, stablecoin, and digital asset business expectations. What's more noteworthy is that after Waller signaled a dovish stance, market concerns about continued rate hikes in September have eased, with BTC once surging near $81,000, directly boosting risk appetite across the crypto sector. But today there is a real big test: the US August non-farm payrolls. The market currently expects about 58,000 new jobs; if the data is significantly weak, it may further strengthen easing expectations; conversely, if employment exceeds expectations, crypto high-Beta assets might first rise then fall. 📌 The core issue now is not "who rises the most," but who can continue after the non-farm payrolls On September 4th, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest catalyst for the market today.
What the market is most conflicted about right now is not the nonfarm data itself, but whether it will continue to change the Fed's rate hike expectations for September 16th.
Currently, the market's judgment on a September rate hike has quickly dropped from over 60% the day before to nearly an even split. Waller's statement yesterday also led the market to start betting again on "maintaining the current interest rate."
So today, we can simply consider three scenarios:
First, nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected.
Employment continues to cool down, the probability of a rate hike may further decline, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000.
Second, data basically meets expectations.
The market may fluctuate briefly but will ultimately return to rate expectations and the September 11 CPI.
Third, nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected.
Rate hike expectations rise again, the dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure, risk assets suffer, and BTC may instead retest lower support levels.
Interestingly, the options market has already made defensive moves in advance, with obvious downside protection layouts in the $68,000–$75,000 range.
So what’s really worth watching today is not whether the nonfarm data is bullish or bearish.
It’s how the funds reprice rates and BTC after the data is released.
$BTC Next is the Solana section
The current price is about 100, stuck in the middle zone between bulls and bears, not yet entering the shortable area, nor has it returned to the long zone I want.
SOL still follows Bitcoin's big swings up and down, so don't treat it as independently strong yet. I suggest waiting for a retest near 95 to gradually buy longs, with a stop loss at 90; consider shorts only when it approaches 120 to 130. Only after breaking through 130 should you seriously reconsider the positioning; for now, don't prematurely change your framework.
The US stock spot Solana ETF funds started to shake in the past two days. On September 1, there was still about $10.2 million net inflow, but the next day it turned into about $6.13 million net outflow, mainly from Bitwise BSOL outflows. Institutions haven't fully exited, but the rhythm is no longer as stable as in late August. In the short term, it looks more like rotation and turnover following the broader market. The chips are still fluctuating, so don't rush to claim that the earlier inflows have already formed an independent trend.Shorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
#DailyOrbit The moment Jensen Huang dropped this acquisition pawn, the entire open file on the chessboard quietly changed hands. Hugging Face is not a chip, not computing power, but the chessboard behind all AI players' opening repertoire—the $12.93 billion purchase is the opening library of the entire ecosystem.
$11.9 billion given to shareholders is the pawn already in the mouth; $1 billion reserved for employees is the soft ribbon hanging on the king's wing. Outsiders look at valuation, insiders look at the hidden intention behind this move. The loudest move is hidden in the promise—"no mandatory use of Nvidia computing." This is equivalent to telling opponents: choose your opening. But grandmasters all understand, the real trap is not refusing to vary, but making the opponent believe they have the freedom to choose. When Fischer abandoned the queen in Reykjavik, it was not the queen itself but the psychological space conceded to the opponent that mattered.
Hugging Face is that central square. Models, datasets, and AI applications all revolve around this square. Controlling the center square but not immediately delivering checkmate is Nvidia's smartest sequence. Because once the pawn directly attacks the king's wing, regulators will intervene like referees calling a stop for "threefold repetition." So it yields the queen's wing, temporarily guards its composure, continues to open interfaces, and does not block lines. But all developers moving pieces along this open file must pay an invisible toll: learning paths, model formats, deployment habits, and the archival rights of every future game record. First occupy the standards, then consider monetization—this is the order after long consideration, not a momentary skirmish.
Regulatory eyes fall from two sides. One is scrutiny of monopoly over the computing layer, the other is concern over the concentration of model distribution entry points. The queen's wing rooks have already connected the semi-open file, forcing the opponent's castle defense to shrink. Legislators on both sides of the ocean are like raising the chess clock to count down, but the deal is not set to close until the first half of 2027. The time gap creates a subtle "transition": enough for all parties to complete piece exchanges, and enough for laws to leave a new horizontal line on the chessboard. All rules are modified before the endgame—this is a game history repeatedly tells.
Look again at the sideline $xUSAR. It is like a white-square bishop, not on the main battlefield but closely watching this diagonal. The market interprets the concessions and reversals in the "open promise," and it then leans forward to sprint; when the antitrust cloud drifts by, it quickly retreats back to its camp. Large orders on the token market are arranged like waiting moves common in endgames—who moves first exposes intentions; who controls the line can harvest the opponent's hesitation in the pendulum swing. It has not promoted yet, but every move it makes prices the final position.
True masters do not ask "Will buying the open center destroy openness?" They only ask: who adjudicates the boundaries of this open file, who records the takebacks, who decides when to exchange pieces. When all opponents think they can still freely move along this open file of public documents, the pawns they advance in the midgame have long been firmly pinned down by that bishop lurking under the diagonal. As for when it will promote—that is the matter of the endgame. #nvidiahuggingfacedealNon-farm data ignited the market, with BTC surging strongly from 76151 to 80640, a nearly 6% increase in a single day, reclaiming above 80,000. The hourly MACD shows a bullish crossover diverging upwards, with significantly increased volume and strong bullish momentum. However, the 81000-81500 range is a previous high resistance zone and a key resistance level in this rally. If volume breaks through, new highs are expected; if pressure causes a pullback, a double top pattern may form. Follow whoever wins between bulls and bears. Watch these two key levels: Bullish key: 80000-80200, if the pullback does not break below, bulls continue targeting 81500-82000. Bearish key: 81000-81500, if the rebound faces resistance, bears take over targeting 80000-79500. Bull vs. bear logic Reasons to be bullish: ① Non-farm surprise strengthens rate cut expectations, confirming a macro liquidity turning point, leading to a broad risk asset rebound. ② Hourly volume breakout above multiple resistances at 78000, 79000, and 80000, MACD bullish crossover upwards, strong bullish trend. ③ Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for several days, with institutional funds steadily replenishing. Reasons to be bearish: ① 81000-81500 is a previous high resistance zone; three attempts in August ended in pullbacks, with heavy trapped positions. ② Nearly 6% surge in one day, short-term overbought, RSI approaching overbought zone, increasing risk of chasing highs. ③ After the non-farm positive is priced in, lack of new catalysts to push further upward. What will I do? Buy on pullback: enter long if 80000-80200 holds, stop loss at 79500, target 81500-82000. Rebound to sell:🔥$ETH On-Chain Talk Show: Staking queue is 36 days long, mainnet burns 38 ETH, some L2s earn 3.75 million daily while others shut down
Newcomers often get fooled by "busy ecosystem" when looking at ETH. Let's laugh first at three sets of data:
Staking is like waiting in line at a popular restaurant: about 42.6 million ETH staked, accounting for 34.94% of circulating supply, 2.074 million in queue, waiting about 36 days, no exit queue; this means everyone wants to lock up for yield, but new money entering has to wait a month, so short-term circulation may not tighten immediately.
Mainnet is like an energy-saving office: sampling 20 blocks shows base fee at 0.1332 gwei, total L1 fees over 30 days about $10.4 million, annualized about $127 million; since the merge, daily burn averages 1391 ETH, now only about 38.7 ETH daily, remaining 2.8%. After Blob moved Rollup data off-chain, L1 execution demand became sparse. "Network busy" does not equal "mainnet burning money"; the deflation story depends on high-value L1 settlement.
L2 differentiation is like two company departments: Robinhood Chain daily fees $3.75 million, exceeding Solana + ETH mainnet + Base; but small network Silicon stopped deposits on September 2 and testnet, withdrawals only until December 31. Big L2s have volume, small L2s run away. When looking at the ecosystem, don't just look at total TVL.
"$ETH = staking long queues, mainnet energy-saving, big L2s making money, small L2s shutting down; true scarcity looks at L1 actual burn + big L2 retention, not just the four words 'Ethereum is busy'." Above the 80th floor, the dampers begin to emit a low-frequency whine—you all focus only on the order book, while I follow the core tube wall to find the yield point of the rebar.
80,000 is not just a simple price line. If it can stand above it again, it means the main structure has not yet reached the yield bending moment, but it repeatedly probes and hovers between 80,000 and 82,500, because this floor is the transfer floor of the entire building. With the Fed-hike expectations fading and U.S. Treasury yields dropping, it’s like a row of anchor cables on the north side of the foundation pit has been removed. There is a principle in structural codes: when soil pressure changes, all temporary supports must be recalculated. The market is now recalculating the pile cap beam called the term spread; every turn is a trace left by creep in the cracks.
The net inflow of spot ETFs in August is like concrete pump trucks continuously pouring the core tube day and night; by early September, capital inflows and outflows start to interweave, a rhythm known on construction sites as the “support replacement period.” Formwork is dismantled layer by layer, and the concrete must support the above-ground weight that is not yet complete. Any floor with inadequate curing will later show irreversible deflection. So some see the parapet at 86,000 on the blueprint—the liquid capital still insists this elevation is feasible; others choose to withdraw the pump pipe before the slab at 82,050 reaches initial set—Jiang Zhuoer’s sell was an active unload, no longer bearing the bending moment of the subsequent continuous beams.
The BTC-gold 90-day correlation curve Bitwise mentioned is not a safety lock. In architecture, this is called a rigid connection corridor: you weld the main building to a counterweight tower rich in metal reserves, which seems to stabilize the base but actually makes the two dynamic systems share vibration modes. When one side is sucked by the wind, the other side shakes along, and the curtain wall sealant ages faster than anything else in the 0.2 Hz breathing. Gold is not a cushion layer; that correlation is a beam of great stiffness, directly transmitting the macro volatility of precious metals into the load-bearing skeleton of the crypto building.
The selling pressure between 80,000 and 82,500 is an exterior wall bearing positive wind pressure, with wind load already exceeding half of the design reference period. ETF capital flow is the only energy-consuming damper, but its capacity is limited. London gold and U.S. Treasury yields continuously input low-frequency energy at the other end, and the $xMU annex building also emits a hissing friction sound along the wall corner line—its linkage direction exposes the damping ratio of the main structure: if the annex swings higher and higher, it means the main building’s joints have loosened rather than become more solid.
I zoom in on the 80,000 section, reading the least noticed node area on the architectural drawings. Welding rods and bent rebar connections differ by a hair on the drawings but diverge by miles during an earthquake. True structural safety is never written on the parapet elevation but in every encrypted stirrup hook. Raising interest rates means death, not raising interest rates also means death; this pawn is inherently toxic☠️
Think about it, with 40 trillion in US debt weighing down, raising interest rates? Interest expenses would explode, causing a fiscal collapse right before your eyes.
Not raising interest rates? The US dollar's credit continues to dilute, and inflation can't be contained.
Neither option is favorable.
So some say the cleanest solution is to start a war🔥
If they win, the debt is wiped clean; if they lose, they become slaves.
But the question is, does the US really have that determination?
I think it's doubtful.
They are now hesitant even to fight Iran, let alone make a big move to overturn the table.
After all, if a real war breaks out, the financial system collapses first, the rich flee first, who would still care about national credit?
So don't take the idea of "war solving debt" too seriously.
They don't have the guts, nor the necessity.
The most likely path is the old routine: talk tough and raise rates, but actually print money and drag it out slowly.
For us in the crypto circle, seeing through this is enough. (September 4, 2026) Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads triggered by a reversal in macro policy expectations
1. Core direction: short-term high-level oscillation and tug-of-war, upward breakout depends on macro data sentiment
Bitcoin, after experiencing a short squeeze triggered by the "Fed's dovish signals," has currently risen above the $80,000 mark (currently about $81,200). However, the short-term direction is not yet fully clear, and it is highly likely to trade sideways in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. The current daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone (above 73), and short-term momentum shows signs of weakening, indicating the market needs time to digest profits.
2. The "starting gun" for an upward breakout: today's non-farm payroll data
The biggest variable determining whether Bitcoin can firmly hold above $80,000 and push toward the $83,000-$84,000 range is the upcoming U.S. August non-farm payroll data.
● Bullish scenario: If the non-farm data is significantly below expectations (soft print), it will firmly consolidate the "no rate hike" expectation. Coupled with continued net inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $81,800 resistance level with volume and move to higher levels.
● Bearish scenario: If the non-farm data overheats, rate hike expectations may rebound, and Bitcoin will face the risk of retesting the key support level at $78,670 BTC surged back to 80,000 overnight: Is this a breakout or a pre-nonfarm rush?
$BTC
Last night, BTC suddenly rallied quickly from around $77,000, immediately reclaiming $80,000, with an intraday high close to $82,300.
Is last night's big bullish candle a true breakout, or is the market front-running ahead of the nonfarm payroll release?
First, let's look at why it rose last night
The most direct catalyst came from the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that if upcoming inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
After this statement, the market quickly lowered its bets on a September rate hike.
Previously, the market had priced in over a 63% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
After Waller's remarks, this probability dropped to about 50%.
At the same time:
US Treasury yields fell,
The dollar weakened,
US stocks rose,
BTC broke above $80,000 again.
The entire transmission logic is very coherent.
In other words, BTC's rise last night was not a baseless "crypto market sudden frenzy."
The market is actually re-pricing something:
The Fed may not be as hawkish as previously thought a few days ago.
This is certainly bullish for BTC.
Another part of last night's rally likely came from short sellers.
Before breaking $80,000, BTC had been stuck around $77,000–$78,000 for a while.
Many traders started shorting.
As a result, when the price suddenly broke out:
Shorts were liquidated,
Creating a classic short squeeze.
But after all these shorts were closed out,
The buying pressure disappeared.
So:
A short squeeze can create a breakout but cannot guarantee the breakout will hold.
What truly determines whether $80,000 can hold is:
After the squeeze ends, are there new buyers to continue supporting?
Because BTC has actually just gone through a very similar scenario.
At the end of August, BTC also broke $80,000.
Then the buying did not continue,
And the price quickly fell back to the $70,000 range.
And now there is an important level above:
Around $82,800.
This area is close to BTC's high in May this year and coincides with some long-term technical resistance zones.
More importantly: tonight is the nonfarm payrolls release.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report today at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time.
Currently, the market expects:
About 56,000 new nonfarm jobs in the US for August,
With the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%.
The market has actually already started to price this in.
After Waller's speech yesterday,
The market has partially priced in:
"The Fed may not be that hawkish."
BTC has already risen in advance.
So the real risk tonight is:
Nonfarm payrolls not cooperating.
Suppose tonight's release shows:
150,000 new jobs,
Far exceeding market expectations.
The market will immediately reconsider.
Then the macro logic that pushed BTC up last night
Could be directly reversed.
At that time: whether $80,000 is a valid breakout
Will be immediately tested.
Conversely, if tonight's nonfarm is significantly weaker than expected:
For example, only 20,000 or 30,000,
Or even negative growth again.
If BTC can still hold above $80,000,
Then I would think: the credibility of this breakout is clearly higher.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 The current core logic affecting the Bitcoin market can be summarized into two main dimensions: macro liquidity and market cycles. Macro liquidity: Market is fully priced in • Central bank policy tightening: Due to persistent high inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, with the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank following suit with rate hikes. Major global central banks are tightening monetary conditions, and sovereign bond issuance in many countries is under pressure. • Crowding-out effect emerges: The explosive advancement of infrastructure such as AI has prompted large enterprises to issue a significant amount of bonds, occupying a substantial portion of market liquidity. Market cycles: Support at the tail end of the bear market • The market is currently at the tail end of the bear market cycle. This cyclical characteristic provides strong downside support for coin prices and contains some upward momentum. Market trend analysis • Bitcoin (BTC): Under the interplay of constrained macro liquidity but cyclical support, it is difficult in the short term to break through historical highs explosively, nor is it easy to break below the $50,000 support level. Sideways consolidation, slight gains, or minor pullbacks are high-probability trends in the current environment. If global liquidity significantly improves in the future, it is possible to initiate a major upward wave breaking historical highs, or even a second half surge to $150,000. • Altcoins: The divergence trend will become increasingly intense: • Projects with revenue/protocol fees (such as UNI, ARB related to Robinhood): Have actual fundamental support and are prone to rotational upward trends. • Well-known public chains without revenue (such as DOT, ADA, APT): Affected by the significant lowering of chain issuance thresholds (such asWhat is driving this reversal?
1. Geopolitical panic was quickly digested, and the market realized "much ado about nothing"
2. Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $3.1 billion in August; institutions haven't fled at all
3. Shorts were overly crowded before the non-farm payrolls, ready to collapse at any moment
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 *Englis* The loudest signal in crypto right now isn’t an alt pumping. It’s where institutions are choosing _not_ to deploy capital. In the last session, *Bitcoin ETFs saw ∼$116M in inflows*. Meanwhile *Ethereum ETFs had ∼$62M in outflows* and *XRP ETFs dropped ∼$9.4M*. That snapped multi-week inflow runs for both $ETH and $XRP. That’s not a “risk-on across the board” setup. It’s a very targeted rotation. *$BTC* is getting the institutional bid again, but that money isn’t spilling into alts yThe market was very strong before today's open, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising broadly. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changed Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Influenced by this speech, the CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price rally is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous 4280 price level might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's big Nonfarm Payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed significant declines. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump could still be retraced $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC market news is really conflicting right now. On one side, KOLs are hyping ZEC, saying that ETF institutions entering the market will push it up; on the other side, institutional reports are pouring cold water, saying the bear market isn't over yet and there's a chance for new lows in November.
I'm also pondering the election situation. If Trump loses, the likelihood of subsequent rate hikes will really increase. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, wanting to improve the market for his own benefit. Once he loses, the political pressure to cut rates will lessen, and the Fed could loosen up. If inflation data is weak, rate hikes could resume, which would definitely be very negative for the crypto space.
Of course, everything ultimately depends on tonight's big non-farm payrolls. The smaller non-farm data has already weakened, and many are betting that tonight's big non-farm will be positive, meaning poor employment will continue to fuel rate cut speculation, which could easily cause the market to collectively surge. For coins like ZEC, which are purely sentiment-driven and riding the ETF story, it might even directly surge to 1000-1200.
But be cautious. Even if the data is positive, it’s easy to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, where the market turns and dumps after the good news is realized. ZEC itself has a weak foundation and relies entirely on narrative hype; it rises sharply but also falls mercilessly.
I don’t want to keep stressing over this coin anymore; holding it is too costly mentally. I plan to watch the market, and if it crashes further this afternoon, I’ll just take the loss and exit, then block it and stop playing with it. 🤮
There are two possible scenarios ahead:
Non-farm is positive, liquidity loosens, themes continue to ferment, and ZEC keeps skyrocketing; 💹
If the election situation changes and rate hike expectations re-emerge, the whole market will be under pressure, and ZEC will crash badly. $BTC $ZEC
All of this is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Elon Musk is once again intensifying the challenge for all humanity.
What he said at the G20, I think what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t those exaggerated timelines, but the direction he’s betting on:
In the end, AI isn’t just about models, but about electricity, chips, computing power, and physical manufacturing.
Musk made several very radical predictions.
First, in the next 12–18 months, AI might replace a large amount of purely computer-based work.
Second, because robot capability isn’t a single breakthrough but a product of: AI capability × chip capability × mechatronics × dexterous hands. When all these improve exponentially together, once crossing a critical point, the robotics industry might not grow linearly but suddenly accelerate.
Third, and what I think is most easily underestimated: the real bottleneck for AI might be electricity.
Models can be copied, code can be copied, but power plants can’t be replicated overnight. AI chips, data centers, and robots are all voracious consumers of electricity. $TSLA
While others are still competing over models and talent, he has already extended the battlefield all the way to: AI → data → chips → computing power → electricity → robots → manufacturing → rockets.
The first stage is building a highway for AI.
The second stage is letting AI truly start making money on that highway.
So the real big opportunity in the future, I believe, may no longer just be "selling shovels." It’s those who hold the shovels and truly turn AI into productivity, profit, and new economic growth.Ethena project-related address suspected of clearing out after 2 years of dormancy? Assets have shrunk by 65%🥹
Address 0x891…e4041 received 14 million $ENA transferred from Ethena multisig address in July 2024, valued at 6.89 million USD at the time, with a token price of $0.4928
6 hours ago, all tokens were deposited into an exchange, leaving only 2.41 million USD, a decrease of 4.48 million USD compared to the time of receipt, and a drop of over 8.735 million USD compared to the peak value...
Wallet address 0x89105d5d86854Bfb953408aFD6eFde1bB65e4041ZEC continues to hit new highs?? BTC breaks 81,000, Waller's dovish speech triggers altcoin rally!
$ZEC 943 up 16%, leading the market for the second consecutive day, continuing to hit an 8-year high. This privacy coin rally is fundamentally driven — Ironwood upgrade fixed a supply forgery vulnerability, SEC closed the case on Zcash Foundation with no fines, plus 31% of circulating supply locked in shielded pools tightening supply, institutional accumulation combined with short covering, volume expanded to 750 million; 950 is short-term resistance, holding above it targets 1000, a pullback to 900 without breaking is still strong.
$BTC 81,545 up 5%, Fed Governor Waller's speech suppressing rate hike expectations is the core catalyst, CME September rate hike probability dropped from 70% to 50%, risk assets broadly loosened, $140 million short positions were squeezed out when breaking 81,000; 81,000 now acts as support, resistance at 83,000, as long as 80,000 holds before nonfarm payrolls, the bullish structure remains. This rally is emotional repair, not capital flight.
$XRP 1.45 up 8%, leading mainstream gains, regulatory tailwinds continue to ferment and funds rotate from BTC to altcoins, XRP has become the locomotive of this altcoin rally; 1.40 is strong support, a volume breakout above 1.50 targets 1.55, as long as the trend is intact, don't exit lightly.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Oil prices have surged to a six-week high again, but this time it's not just a simple case of "US-Iran conflict driving crude prices up"; the actual amount of oil that can be shipped out of the Middle East is decreasing!!
Brent $BZ briefly hit $97.29 today, and WTI reached $93.04, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. After the US airstrike on Iran, only 6 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the day before, and about 13 on average over the past 10 days. Shipping pressure is clearly rising again.
What's more troublesome is that Middle East supply is already contracting. From March to July this year, Middle East crude oil exports dropped about 40% year-on-year. Japan even increased its US crude oil imports by over 400% year-on-year to fill the gap. It's not that oil is completely unavailable, but the previously cheap and convenient Middle East oil is becoming harder to transport, forcing global buyers to take longer routes and pay higher shipping costs.
Now, even if OPEC+ wants to increase production, whether they can safely deliver the oil is another issue. The Sunday meeting is expected to maintain the current production policy for now, with the market focus shifting from "how much to produce" to "whether it can be shipped out."
So, I am now mainly watching the Strait of Hormuz and the $100 price level for oil. If shipping conditions continue to worsen, energy stocks like XOM and $CVX can still benefit from the oil price rally; but for $QQQ, it's tough—the higher the oil price, the harder it is to ease inflation and interest rate pressures.
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Today, the global risk assets tell only one story: the Fed's rate hike expectations are cooling down. Cross-market comparison (9/4): US stocks: Nasdaq +1.40% (26,584.06) | S&P +1.06% (7,747.71) | Dow +1.18% Crypto-linked stocks: MSTR +17.56% (disclosed buying $600 million BTC again) | Coinbase +10.14% | Robinhood +16.57% Commodities / Forex: Spot gold breaks $4,500/oz, dollar index weakens Crypto: $BTC breaks 82,000 (about +25% in August, best monthly performance since November 2024) | ETH +4.49% closing at 2,499.60 (see attached 1H chart) One main storyline throughout: Waller "Inflation cooling means maintaining rates" → CME September rate hike probability drops from 70% to about 50% → US Treasury yields fall → funds collectively go risk-on. Crypto's position in this chain is the "high beta version" of US stocks: Nasdaq up 1.4%, crypto stocks up 10–17%, $BTC up 5–6%, $ETH up 4.5%. The greater the elasticity, the louder the fall—remember this attribute. Three key time points ahead: Tonight 20:30 (Beijing time): August Nonfarm Payrolls — the "verdict" on rate hike expectations $DELL
and
$AVGO
Looking at these two earnings reports together, I think the signal is already very clear:
The next phase of AI hardware will no longer be just GPUs.
The most striking thing about Dell is:
AI server revenue $16.4 billion, +100%
Quarterly AI server orders $60.9 billion
Backlog directly reaches $95 billion
This shows that enterprises and cloud providers are still frantically expanding AI servers.
And AVGO is even more direct:
AI semiconductor revenue $16.7 billion, +221%
Future AI revenue targets are projected as:
FY27 about $115 billion
FY28 about $230 billion
Putting these two earnings reports together actually explains the entire industry chain.
More servers
→ More GPUs/XPUs
→ Greater demand for HBM/DRAM
→ Higher demand for network switching
→ More 800G/1.6T optical modules
→ Increasing data, so SSD/NAND will also expand
→ Finally, more power and liquid cooling are needed
So now when I look at AI hardware, I no longer just focus on
$NVDA
.
The most directly benefiting group:
SK Hynix, $MU — HBM/DRAM
$ANET — AI networking
$LITE, $COHR — Optical communications
$SNDK — Enterprise SSD/NAND
$VRT, $ETN — Power supply and liquid cooling