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A single earnings report might be luck, but two explosive earnings reports at the same time signal a trend. Last night in the U.S. stock earnings season, two main AI industry chains gave the strongest validation simultaneously: ✅ Broadcom — the absolute leader in AI chip hardware, with performance fully exceeding expectations; ✅ Snowflake — the commercial benchmark for AI data software, significantly raising its full-year guidance. One manages computing power, the other manages data. AI’s leap from "storytelling" to "printing money" was completely unlocked by these two earnings reports. 1. Broadcom: AI chips are booming, with a 2028 target directly aiming at $230 billion. Broadcom’s report is impressively strong. Revenue reached $29.591 billion, up 86% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $3.32, both surpassing Wall Street expectations. The real trump card lies in the AI business: • Quarterly AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7 billion, soaring 221% year-over-year and growing 54% quarter-over-quarter • AI business now accounts for 56% of total revenue What does this mean? Broadcom is no longer just a chip company "riding the AI wave"; it is itself the core seller of AI computing power. The market is also focused on the long-term guidance: • Fiscal 2026 AI semiconductor revenue target raised to $58 billion • Fiscal 2027 expected to double to $115 billion • Fiscal 2028 aiming directly for $230 billion Note, there is a very critical detail here: Broadcom’s short-term Q4 revenue guidance is $34.8 billion, slightly below expectations, after-hoursADP has already collapsed! If the non-farm payrolls are poor again, the 62% probability of a rate hike is just a paper tiger, and gold ETFs have already started to run ahead.
Brothers, tomorrow night at 8:30, the August non-farm payroll data will be released. This is the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
ADP has already collapsed in advance: private sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the expected 48,000, marking the smallest increase since January this year. Manufacturing layoffs and professional services job cuts, with wage growth in low-paying jobs completely stalled. Meanwhile, CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains as high as 62.3%. Employment is collapsing, but rate hike expectations remain feverishly high. How long can this contradiction last?
But on the other side, smart money is moving.
The world's largest gold ETF — SPDR Gold Trust — increased holdings by 9.984 tons in a single day, pushing total holdings to 1056.62 tons. Over two consecutive days, cumulative increases exceeded 14 tons. Despite rate hike expectations weighing heavily, and gold briefly falling below 4400, large funds are buying against the trend.
My judgment: If non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the probability of a rate hike will quickly cool down, and gold and BTC may see a retaliatory rebound. But if non-farm payrolls unexpectedly strengthen, the 62% rate hike probability will surge past 70%, and BTC may test 76,000 or even lower again.
ADP has already shown a red light; don’t bet on the direction of non-farm payrolls anymore. Wait for the data to land, and follow whoever wins.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 🔍 An abnormal phenomenon: weakening employment, yet rising rate hike expectations The market expects about 55,000-58,000 new jobs in August nonfarm payrolls, far below the average level of the past 12 months. But CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains as high as 62.3%—the coexistence of weakening employment and rising rate hike expectations is the core contradiction in the current market. Why? Because the Federal Reserve now only cares about one thing: inflation. 📊 Three key data points determine tonight's script ① The small nonfarm ADP has already weakened The ADP data released on September 2 shows that US private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest increase in 7 months. Normally, weak employment should reduce rate hike expectations—but the market barely reacted. ② Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech completely changed the rules In his speech, Fed Chair Powell mentioned inflation 61 times and the labor market only 30 times. He clearly stated that the labor market is "consistent with a state of full employment" and publicly rejected the logic chain of "weakening employment → cooling wages → easing inflation → end of rate hikes." His core signal is: as long as inflation does not substantially improve, even weak employment data cannot stop rate hikes. Bank of America therefore judges that nonfarm payrolls are just an "appetizer," and the CPI on September 11 is the real "main course." ③ The Beige Book confirms: the economy is not collapsing, inflation is not retreating The Fed's Beige Book shows moderate economic expansion and moderate price increases, with 7 districts reporting#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
US stock funds now have almost perverse demands for AI hardware.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue for the third fiscal quarter soared directly to $16.7 billion, with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations. However, just because the guidance for the fourth quarter was slightly lower, the stock price was mercilessly hammered down by 6% after hours. Even though Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, proving that the underlying computing power infrastructure is still expanding, the secondary market's tolerance for hardware giants has been compressed to zero.
Interestingly, funds have not left the AI track but have turned sharply toward another direction.
Data cloud giant Snowflake surged violently by more than 21% after hours. Product revenue for the second fiscal quarter grew 37% year-over-year, and the number of enterprise accounts for its AI-assisted coding tool CoCo surged to 9,100. The company also raised its full-year revenue and profit margin forecasts accordingly.
The stark contrast between these two giants on the same night marks that the entire AI market is entering a very brutal new phase.
The pure infrastructure dividend period of blindly buying chips and grabbing servers over the past two years is cooling down, and the market has grown aesthetically tired of the performance ceiling of hardware sellers. Now, funds only recognize one thing: who can truly convert underlying computing power into enterprise cloud data consumption and real software workflows.
From pure computing infrastructure to data cloud and software applications, the real big test of AI commercialization is actually just beginning now.The crypto market is facing a particularly sensitive trading session. On September 4th, the US will release the August employment report — Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). This is the final employment report before the FOMC meeting on September 15–16, so any fluctuations in employment, unemployment, and wages can directly impact the Fed's interest rate expectations. Current forecasts revolve around a payroll increase of about 50–55 thousand jobs, with an unemployment rate of around 4.1%. (Top1 Markets) The issue is that the market needs not just a CORE deposit maintenance delayed｜Expected to resume deposits at 11:00 AM on September 4th 👀
The exchange's CORE deposit page has been updated, with maintenance postponed to 11:00 AM on 2026-09-04. The originally estimated reopening time was 5:00 PM today, but now it has been pushed back.
📌Key information interpretation
1. Only the deposit function is suspended
The exchange's internal wallet is undergoing maintenance and verification. Spot trading and withdrawal functions depend on the actual exchange page; on-chain personal wallet transfers are completely normal, but deposits to this exchange are currently not possible.
Reason for delay: The node reward bug hard fork verification process is taking longer than expected. The exchange needs to fully verify on-chain blocks and filter abnormal tokens.
2. Important risk reminders
❗Do not transfer to the exchange's CORE address during maintenance; deposits will not be credited and may cause asset anomalies.
❗11:00 AM on September 4th is still an estimated time. Due to the complexity of the verification process, further delays are possible. Always refer to the exchange page status.
3. Market impact
- Continues to block CORE tokens from off-exchange staking returns entering the exchange, isolating short-term selling pressure;
- When the deposit channel reopens tomorrow morning, a large amount of off-exchange tokens can be transferred to the exchange. Watch for price fluctuations caused by token flow spikes;
- The maintenance delay also indirectly reflects that handling this protocol bug incident is more complex than expected, and the solution for excess token disposal has not yet been implemented.
Maintenance delay ≠ asset security issues, it just means the exchange's security verification process is extended.
$CORE#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒
Dell has already submitted its report. After the market closed on September 1, Q2 revenue was $46.971 billion, up 58% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $7.04, a staggering 203% increase year-over-year, with market expectations at $4.92. ISG Infrastructure segment revenue was $31.78 billion, up 89% year-over-year, with AI-optimized servers at $16.4 billion. Traditional servers and networking equipment revenue surged 122% to $10.53 billion — AI-driven workloads are driving demand for CPU servers. The full-year revenue guidance was raised directly from $167 billion to $192 billion; full-year EPS guidance was raised from $17.9 to $25.5. Shares rose 8% after hours, with a cumulative gain of 236% for the year.
Broadcom reports after hours tonight. The market expects Q3 revenue of about $29.43 billion, up 84% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue target is $16 billion, up over 200% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The lesson from last quarter is clear — Broadcom's Q2 results exceeded expectations, but the stock plunged nearly 13% after hours because the market was waiting for an "upgrade," and merely "maintaining" guidance triggered sell-offs. Dell delivered a "diffuse" report — AI demand not only drove AI servers but also reactivated traditional servers and storage. Broadcom faces a "concentrated" test — whether the profit margin of custom AI chips can hold up, and whether Google's orders will be diverted. The AI hardware story is still unfolding, but the bar for validation is getting higher.Let's talk about last night's non-farm payrolls, combined with the ADP small non-farm data, to analyze several market scenarios for BTC and ETH.
ADP small non-farm payrolls came in at 38,000, below the expected 48,000, signaling a cooling in employment. Historical pattern: when ADP weakens, non-farm payrolls also weaken simultaneously with a 60% probability; non-farm unexpectedly strengthens 25% of the time; data matches expectations with 15% volatility. The market expected an increase of 55,000 in this non-farm report.
Three scenarios:
1. Non-farm < 55,000 (60% probability)
Both ADP and non-farm weaken, the market anticipates an earlier rate cut, causing the dollar and US bonds to decline.
Short-term may spike up; ⚠️ if the market has already risen in advance during the day, the actual release may lead to profit-taking and a pullback; if the positive news is not priced in, bulls have a chance to continue the rally.
2. Non-farm > 55,000 (25% probability)
Small non-farm is weak, but official employment exceeds expectations, delaying rate cut expectations, leaning hawkish.
Dollar rallies, BTC quickly crashes, breaking support, bulls stop out in a cascade, contracts are prone to two-way liquidations.
3. Non-farm around 45,000–65,000 (15% probability)
Data is moderate, does not change monetary policy expectations, after brief disturbance returns to original oscillating trend.#Robinhood chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Recently, the Robinhood chain has completely exploded, with trading volume skyrocketing, directly boosting the revenue expectations for ARB.
Previously, this chain had little heat and low rent, so no one paid much attention. But recently, trading volume has exploded, and the daily earned fees have been rising rapidly. The market calculates that ARB can receive a significant share of the revenue annually, making the story suddenly clear.
If the Robinhood chain's popularity can be maintained and trading remains booming, with continuous revenue streams, ARB still has room for growth, likely to continue strengthening and driving some ecosystem tokens to follow suit.
However, the risks are also very real. A large part of this is driven by speculation. Once the chain's popularity wanes and trading volume drops, revenue will shrink significantly, disproving this narrative, and prices could quickly fall back. After all, much of the current traffic is driven by speculative hype, and it's uncertain if it can retain users long-term.
In summary: This is ARB's first real external revenue source, representing a new positive development, but it is story-driven, so do not blindly chase the highs. Going forward, focus on whether the Robinhood chain can sustain high trading volume. $ARB $BTC $ETH Many people didn't notice that on September 1st, the SEC issued a 421-page proposal.
This is the first rewrite in over 40 years of the "transfer agent" rules — the infrastructure that manages securities registration and shareholder registers.
The key point is that it directly names blockchain ledgers: from now on, those maintaining shareholder master files on distributed ledgers must report according to the new rules.
It also scheduled a roundtable on September 17th, inviting BlackRock, Nasdaq, NYSE, Robinhood to discuss "24-hour trading."
To translate: the SEC is not blocking securities on-chain, but paving a compliant path for on-chain securities.
The CLARITY Act is still being debated in the Senate, but if this rule is implemented, tokenized stocks and on-chain government bonds will become much smoother to operate.
What do you think — when will 24-hour trading be realized in the US stock market? Or will this ultimately fall through?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has once again crossed boundaries, with Iran deploying missiles and drones to strike the US Air Force base in Kuwait. The local air defense system intercepted overnight, and a drone hit a US military residential area, causing a fire.
The biggest change in this conflict is the spillover beyond the battlefield. Previously, the confrontation was concentrated in the US and Iran homeland and the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iran has expanded its retaliation to all Gulf countries hosting US troops, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The conflict has spread from a localized standoff to the entire Gulf military network, significantly raising the level of geopolitical risk. Currently, there are discrepancies in reports from both sides; Iran claims to have caused US military losses, while the US has not yet confirmed any casualties.
Notably, despite the rising risk, oil prices have not continued to rise but slightly retreated to Brent at $95.2 and WTI at $90.8. The core reason is the absence of large-scale sustained fighting, and the US has stated that the new round of operations will be short-lived, leading to a contraction in short-term war premiums.
There are two main scenarios for the subsequent market: if Iran continues airstrikes on US bases, affecting ports, refineries, and other energy facilities, oil prices are likely to break through $100, inflationary pressures will rise, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations will strengthen, continuously suppressing risk assets such as BTC; if the conflict is limited to military targets and shipping lanes are restored, the current geopolitical premium will gradually dissipate, and macroeconomic pressures will ease. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The prediction market only gives a 15% chance that the "CLARITY Act" will be enacted this year. Retail investors are still betting on positive outcomes, but on the surface, the entire bill is about dismantling the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, attempting to establish a lifelong order for compliant CEXs, DeFi protocols, and token issuers.
However, the 60-vote procedural threshold the Senate faces on September 15 is not just a simple partisan clash; it directly hits the core conflict over the distribution of existing assets between traditional financial interest groups and crypto capital.
The current revised bill allows banks to directly use $BTC crypto assets as collateral for loans, and even leverage customer deposits and the federal safety net to engage in derivatives.
The ICBA (Independent Community Bankers of America) and state regulators have already privately exploded because once stablecoins are legally allowed to bear interest, community banks' existing retail deposits will be instantly drained, directly depleting credit liquidity for small and micro businesses.
The basic interest margin of the traditional lending system is passive, and the pressure these traditional financial lobbying groups can exert on senators in Congress is far heavier than the lobbying funds Coinbase has spent.
According to the five major loopholes pointed out by Warren's team, if the bill is forcibly passed, it essentially opens a "compliant escape from securities law" green channel for institutions and giants.The London Stock Exchange and Payward plan to launch tokenization of UK stocks, with traditional finance finally presenting “stock on-chain” as a serious business.
Previously, tokenized stocks often had a gray area, like shadow assets created by crypto platforms themselves. Now, if exchanges, custodians, brokers, and compliance frameworks all come together, the focus changes: it’s not just another trading entry point, but a redesign of settlement, cross-border access, and trading hours.
But don’t call it a revolution too quickly. The hardest part of stock tokenization isn’t technology, but rights mapping: how dividends are calculated, who holds voting rights, how suspensions are handled, and which jurisdiction’s regulations apply.
I think the real value of this is that it forces the traditional securities market to seriously face the efficiency pressures on-chain for the first time.
#伦敦证券交易所与Payward拟推英股代币化 Brothers, the market is a bit interesting today. The Robinhood chain suddenly saw a surge in volume, and the ARB revenue narrative is heating up again. What does this mean? It means the retail investors haven't left; they're just messing around in a different place. Robinhood itself is a stronghold for retail investors, and the increase in on-chain trading volume likely means new funds are rushing in to play short-term trades. As for ARB, the big brother of L2, its revenue narrative has always been criticized as "big ecosystem, weak token." This time, with slightly better revenue data, the market is eager to find reasons to pump the price. But don't get too excited yet; the CPI data hasn't been released, and these hot topics might be short-lived. Once the inflation data comes out, we'll see if it's a bull or bear market. Let's talk about the impact of CPI on the crypto space. In recent months, CPI has generally been trending down, but core inflation remains sticky, and the Fed folks are still stubborn. For crypto, as long as CPI data doesn't blow up, it's a mild positive; expectations of rate cuts can support risk asset valuations. But if CPI suddenly rebounds one day, that's no joke — rate hike expectations will return, the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin along with a bunch of altcoins will plunge. So before every CPI release, the market acts like a scared bird, volatility is suppressed to the extreme, just waiting for a direction. Now with Robinhood chain volume surging and ARB revenue improving, it's mostly the market entertaining itself during the data vacuum, so don't take it too seriously. Next, as usual, we'll go through the top thirty coins one by one with casual commentary. This is not investment advice, just personal observations. $BTC (Bitcoin): The big brother is still consolidating, short-term MY 2027-2029 $BTC BITCOIN BULL MARKET PRICE TARGET: $170,000 - $190,000.
Every cycle returns about 28% of the last one.
x115 → x21.7 → x7.9.
That projects x2.2 to x3.9 from the $58,526 (current) bottom.
I'm taking the middle of that range.$SUI quietly rose 4.11% today, making it the strongest among mainstream public chain coins. No hype, no trending searches, just steady growth—this kind of trend is actually the most worth analyzing.
Look at today's performance in the public chain sector: SOL is almost flat, ETH dropped nearly 1%, BNB rose 0.7%, XRP increased 0.94%, while SUI's 4.11% stands out uniquely among the established public chains. Real money has voted with real capital; this signal is more solid than a hundred research reports.
Why SUI? Simply put, it's the logic of old and new generations swapping. Among the older generation public chains, Ethereum is held back by performance issues, Solana is repeatedly struggling around the $100 mark, and the market needs fresh blood to tell new stories. The Sui ecosystem has kept a steady pace of project launches this year, with DEX trading volume and stablecoin market cap climbing, and the Move language's technical narrative consistently attracting developers. The market cap is relatively small, so the cost to push up the price is low, making the rise feel naturally light and swift.
My personal view is that for strong coins like SUI, the right approach is to buy on dips rather than chasing after a 4% rise. Corrections in strong coins usually aren't too deep; a pullback near the 5-day moving average is a position to consider, while breaking below the 10-day moving average indicates short-term momentum exhaustion. The public chain sector is always rotating; today's SUI might be tomorrow's peak stand-in, so don't be greedy for the last tail of the rally. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly stated in an interview with CNBC at the G20 summit, "I know information the market doesn't have" and "I believe the Japanese government and central bank will take measures to strengthen the yen."
Insiders also revealed that Yellen pressured Japanese officials at the G20 summit, demanding that the Japanese government take measures to strengthen the U.S. dollar.
Why does Yellen want the yen to appreciate?
First,
She can't bear it herself anymore. Currently, the U.S. debt has exceeded 40 trillion. Lowering interest rates hasn't curbed inflation and easily triggers capital outflows. Raising rates is difficult because the debt scale is too large, and she can't bear it either. The U.S. stock market AI bubble is fragile and will burst at the slightest touch. Raising rates easily triggers a death spiral decline. On one hand, she hopes for a weaker dollar to reduce debt pressure, but at the same time, she doesn't dare let inflation surge. If U.S. debt is sold off, then the role of the "blood bag" comes into play.
Promoting yen rate hikes causes capital to flow out of Japan and back to the U.S. At the same time, yen rate hikes weaken the dollar, alleviating debt pressure.
It's killing two birds with one stone, but Japan is the one suffering. Japan's current situation isn't much better, with high debt pressure and inflation difficulties. But Yellen's public stance at the market is a clear signal, pressuring Japan. Insiders reveal that the Bank of Japan is also inclined to raise rates by 25 basis points this month.
However, a stronger yen would trigger a seismic shock in global financial markets.
The core reason is that the yen is present throughout global markets. With low yen interest rates, everyone generally borrows yen to buy other assets for arbitrage. Once rates rise, arbitrage costs increase, and the market will sell assets to repay yen. On Black Monday in August 2024, the Nasdaq fell 3% in one day, and the crypto market dropped 10%. Golden cross, bank entry, and rising expectations of money printing: the next round for $BTC.
BTC's 50-day moving average is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average, signaling an imminent golden cross.
USDT market dominance is simultaneously weakening, indicating that some funds may be flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets. Both technical and capital flows are signaling bullish momentum.
Macro expectations are also starting to warm up.
Arthur Hayes posted on X that Japan's GPIF adjusting its asset allocation could trigger a new round of liquidity expansion.
However, the "money printing spree" is still speculative at this point.
What truly impacts BTC are interest rates, the US dollar, and global funding costs.
On the institutional side, participation continues to grow.
Standard Chartered Bank has expanded BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, meaning traditional capital buying crypto assets is becoming more convenient and compliant.
Analyst Willy Woo believes BTC may shift from a 4-year cycle to a 6- to 8-year cycle.
This does not mean the bull market is gone; rather, with ETFs and institutional funds joining, the market may extend longer, and price movements will no longer revolve solely around halving events.
News is leaning toward medium- to long-term improvement, but BTC will not break out immediately.
The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market dominance could also be just a short-term rise in risk appetite.
Only with continuous inflows of spot and ETF funds, and BTC firmly holding between $80,000 and $83,300, will a new upward trend be truly confirmed.
#日本长债收益率升至高位 $ARB at $0.13603 looks strong on the surface. But after the recent rally, I’m less interested in the pump and more interested in whether the market can absorb the next supply event. Arbitrum’s latest H1 update showed 478M transactions, more than $70B in average monthly stablecoin transfers, and $6.19M of DAO income. Robinhood Chain also became a new revenue source for the ecosystem. That’s the bullish side. The problem? A 92.65M ARB unlock is scheduled for September 16, adding roughly 0.93% ofBitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based on publicly available overseas institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews, and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving will be completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main upward window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is the peak period for this cycle.
However, with the current market institutionalization (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), the overall bull market gains will be significantly reduced compared to the previous two cycles, making it difficult to replicate the early explosive multi-fold increases.
Three scenarios (top prices for this cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability, weak bull market)
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Federal Reserve rate cuts, high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued tightening of US crypto regulations, continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets undergo valuation cuts;
Characteristics: Only slight new highs, limited bubble; after the peak, a pullback of 50-65% is still possible.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream consensus among overseas investment banks, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $150,000 - $240,000
Bernstein, Standard Chartered, and Galaxy baseline models converge in this range.
Required conditions:
1. Substantial Federal Reserve rate cuts, US dollar liquidity easing;
2. Stable monthly net inflows in US spot ETFs, pensions and family offices maintain small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation implemented, policy uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term holders’ positions remain solid, exchange BTC inventories continue to decline.
Compared to the previous peak of $69,000, the neutral scenario is 2-3.5 times that peak. Institutional capital entry raises the floor but compresses the bubble’s crazy gains.
③ Optimistic Scenario (strong bubble super cycle, 25% probability)
Top: $280,000 - $380,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Sovereign states and sovereign wealth funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, many listed companies record BTC on their balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, digital gold assets revalued;
4. No major black swan events, global liquidity extremely loose.
Cathie Wood’s $500,000+ target is an extreme ideal model and not the baseline expectation for the 2026-2027 cycle.
❌ The widely circulated "this cycle will reach $1 million" is a long-term fantasy, requiring 2-3 halving cycles and is unlikely by 2027.
Why historical gains cannot be directly copied:
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, very small market, purely retail-driven;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, mainly Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: dominated by large institutional capital, huge market cap, multiples will be further compressed.
Even if the bull market arrives, it will not be a straight upward trend; intermediate corrections of 30-45% are expected.
Four observation indicators more important than price predictions:
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflows: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the cornerstone of bull market funds; large outflows for consecutive months require lowering bull market expectations.
2. Federal Reserve real interest rates: rate declines favor BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes suppress the market.
3. On-chain exchange inventories: continuous decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous increase indicates whales selling.
4. US crypto regulation: clear policies open imagination; strong crackdowns can directly end the bull market.
Risks not to be ignored:
1. Cycle dulling risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing prolonged wide-range oscillations, lengthening the bull market, or weakening the halving effect, resulting in no major bull market.
2. Even if the bull market peaks successfully, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur afterward.
3. All predictions are based on a series of external assumptions; geopolitical events and black swans can overturn all projections at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $150,000-$240,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $280,000-$380,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market will not be a straight climb; there will be significant corrections, and all prices are just scenario simulations.CORE's hard fork this time: Is it one coin, or will it become two coins?
A hard fork itself ≠ necessarily creating a second coin; whether it splits depends on whether all validators on the network upgrade to the new version of the software.
Scenario 1: Ideal state (what the project team hopes to achieve, one chain with only 1 CORE)
The vast majority of validators, nodes, and exchanges upgrade to the new code.
- After the fork, there is only one chain, still only one CORE token, no new coins will appear out of thin air.
- Starting from the fork height, the new rules take effect, fixing the reward bug and stopping the excessive issuance of tokens.
- The CORE tokens mined excessively due to the past bug remain in circulation; the fork will not destroy or reclaim them (officially confirmed no rollback of history).
- Your coin quantity remains unchanged; only the network rules are fixed. Ethereum's London and Shanghai upgrades are such hard forks, maintaining a single chain with no new coins.
Scenario 2: Worst case (chain splits, resulting in two sets of tokens)
Some validators refuse to upgrade to the new version and continue running the old buggy code, causing the chain to split into two independent chains:
1. New chain (project team's main chain): bug-fixed new version, token still called CORE.
2. Old chain (run by nodes refusing to upgrade): continues with the old buggy rules, allowing continued excessive mining, generating another set of tokens (commonly called old-CORE in the market).
👉 Once split, at the snapshot moment of the fork, the amount of CORE in your wallet exists equally on both chains, effectively giving you a new set of tokens. Each coin has its own price and market, and they are not interchangeable.
This is similar to the 2016 Ethereum DAO event, which split into ETH (new chain) + ETC (old chain), two independent tokens.
Key distinction: coins on exchanges vs. in your own wallet
1. Coins on exchanges (OKX, Gate)
After the split, the choice is up to the exchange:
- Exchanges may only support the project team's new chain CORE and not distribute the old chain tokens to you;
- Or they may support both chains, crediting your account with both tokens;
During the fork window, exchanges will likely temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals to prevent asset confusion.
2. Coins in your own private key wallet
Once the chain splits, your private key controls tokens on both chains, automatically giving you two sets of assets, but operations and transfers become complicated and there is a risk of replay attacks.
Clarifications on several key misunderstandings about this CORE event
1. ❌ "Hard fork will airdrop me new coins"
Only if the network permanently splits will a second coin appear; if the entire network upgrades uniformly, there will be only one coin, no airdrop.
2. ❌ "The coins mined excessively due to the bug before the fork will disappear or be destroyed"
The official approach is forward-only upgrades with no rollback. The fork only stops further excessive issuance; the historically mined excess CORE will not be automatically erased by the fork, so the selling pressure risk remains.
3. ❌ "Any hard fork inevitably splits into two"
Many planned hard forks on public chains are smooth single-chain upgrades; splits are a risk outcome, not an inherent result of forking.
For ordinary holders, watch these 3 signals before and after the fork
1. Whether the vast majority of validators have completed the new version upgrade (the core indicator to judge if a split will occur);
2. Announcements from major exchanges: whether deposits and withdrawals are suspended during the fork, and which chain the exchange supports if a split occurs;
3. Official incident review report: how many excess CORE tokens were mined due to the bug.
In short:
If all network nodes upgrade, after the fork there will still be only 1 CORE token; if some validators refuse to upgrade and the network splits, two independent CORE tokens will appear. The fork itself will not destroy the historically excess tokens already issued.$BTC and $ETH are gradually approaching key areas that I will focus on. If the price continues to oscillate at high levels but bulls fail to open new upward space, I will start reassessing short positions. 👇 Currently, I mainly watch these signals: 1️⃣ BTC & ETH still lack real breakout momentum. BTC has recently been fluctuating mainly around the $76K–$79K range, while ETH is tugging near $2.3K–$2.5K. If multiple attempts to break resistance fail to hold, it indicates that selling pressure above may still exist, and the market might be in a high-level distribution phase. 2️⃣ Don’t rush to chase longs out of fear of missing out. Missing a wave of gains is not scary. The real danger is getting emotionally carried away after seeing a big bullish candle and then chasing leveraged longs at high levels. FOMO is not a trading strategy. 3️⃣ The macro environment is becoming a new variable. The US will release August nonfarm payroll data on September 4, and previously July nonfarm jobs decreased by 23,000, showing signs of cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly heated up, with the probability now above about 60%. 4️⃣ Oil prices and US Treasury yields also deserve close attention. Brent crude remains near $95/barrel, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.8%. High oil prices + high yields, if sustained, could further suppress high valuations and high-risk assets. ⚠️ So right now for me to$BTC is no longer about oil prices as the most worth-watching factor. In August, the US spot BTC ETF had a total net inflow of about $3.52 billion, making it the strongest performing month this year. However, entering September, on the very first day, there was a net outflow of about $236 million. The previous month was still crazily accumulating, but suddenly the money started flowing out. The real test around 77,000 is just beginning now. The strength of BTC throughout August was significantly supported by ETF funds. Out of 21 trading days, there were net inflows on 16 days, including a streak of 9 consecutive days of inflows. The total ETF assets also rose from about $76.2 billion at the end of July to nearly $99.6 billion. So now, I am more concerned: if this money stops buying, who will take over? Because whether 77,000 holds or not cannot be judged by the candlestick alone. We need to see if the funds that were supporting the price before are still there. But I wouldn’t directly interpret the $236 million outflow as "institutions running away." One day’s data is not enough. The real danger is if the following happens: continuous ETF outflows and BTC consistently failing to reclaim 80,000. If these two signals appear simultaneously, the nature changes. Because that means: the funds responsible for absorbing the selling are decreasing, while those willing to sell at high levels remain. At such times, 77,000 is not just an ordinary consolidation level but a place where chips are looking for new buyers. The reverse is also true. If ETF inflows quickly resume and BTC can retake 80,000–82,000, then this $236 million outflow looks more like a short-term redemption.If Elon Musk really tweets "All in DOGE" tomorrow, the market will likely get lively for a while, but it's hard to replicate the spectacle of 2021 — because the residual value of the "Musk premium" has been repeatedly overdrawn by himself and is now almost gone.
Let's do a stress test: assuming this tweet appears during the most liquid trading period, $DOGE would surge with volume within minutes, short-term funds would quickly accumulate, and the derivatives market would follow suit. But the script afterward will be completely different from 2021. Back then, Musk was at the peak of his credibility, retail investors had ample cash, leverage was cheap, and a single tweet could drive capital inflows lasting weeks; now he has tweeted too many times, the effect diminishes with each occurrence, the market has long learned to "sell on good news realization," and his political roles over the years have cost him some goodwill, so the resonance triggered by the same tweet is much weaker.
From the residual value estimation, a single sentence in 2021 could bring tens of billions of dollars in incremental market value, but now the same content might only cause a pulse-like fluctuation and a faster retracement. The Musk premium has degraded from a faith premium to an arbitrage window for short-term traders exploiting volatility. For long-term holders, the real question is not what he shouts, but whether DOGE has an independent narrative beyond celebrity effect — at least for now, the answer remains no.Differences in BTC and ETH Market Behavior, External News Hardly Changes the Main Logic
The market often intuitively feels the distinctly different market personalities of BTC and ETH. BTC is like a conservative middle-aged person; facing complex external news, its base defense is very solid, with strong support during sharp declines, but it does not act aggressively or recklessly during upward phases, showing a steadier trend.
ETH, on the other hand, is more like an emotionally sensitive and passionate young person with strong correlation attributes. When the US stock AI sector fluctuates slightly, it quickly follows the movement; when good news arrives, it has the impulse to hit new highs; when bad news strikes, the pullback is equally decisive and neat, with elasticity far greater than Bitcoin.
Recently, tech company earnings have significantly exceeded market expectations, injecting a strong boost into the US tech sector, which indirectly transmits to the crypto market. If the US stock market can sustain upward momentum after opening tonight, market risk appetite will rise, and ETH will gain extra rebound momentum. Conversely, if the US stock market gaps up but quickly plunges, ETH’s high elasticity will cause it to be the first to bear the selling pressure from the emotional downturn, resulting in a noticeably larger correction.
However, external market news can only be considered a bonus factor for the market, not a decisive one. The trajectory of US Treasury yields and the upcoming non-farm payroll data are the true ballast stones of the current market, determining the mid-term main trend. Short-term news can easily interfere with judgment; do not let temporary market fluctuations distract from the core logic.
The personality differences between the two also remind us that under the same macro environment, the rise and fall rhythms of the two coins will diverge. In trading, they need to be viewed separately and not simply equated; combine core macro indicators to judge the overall direction.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Gold ETFs increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention
There has been a notable change in gold over the past two days:
ETF funds have started to flow back in, with some gold ETFs increasing holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day.
What does this mean?
At the very least, it indicates that after the recent price adjustment, institutional funds have not clearly abandoned gold; instead, they are beginning to seek allocation opportunities again.
Previously, data from the World Gold Council showed that in July, global gold ETFs saw a capital inflow, with global holdings increasing by 23 tons and a net inflow of about $3 billion. 
So now the gold market presents an interesting combination:
Price adjustment → ETF funds flowing back in → Institutional allocation willingness rising.
But the short-term focus should not be only on ETFs.
Rather — the options market is amplifying volatility expectations.
Currently, gold is in a very sensitive time window.
On one hand, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due this Friday, and the market is re-pricing the Fed’s September rate hike expectations; on the other hand, gold remains very sensitive to the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Today’s gold rebound is itself due to a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields, as the market awaits the nonfarm report to further confirm the Fed’s next move. 
So the likely rhythm ahead is:
Weak nonfarm → Cooling rate hike expectations → Dollar/yields fall → Gold gains support.
Conversely:
Strong nonfarm → Rising rate hike expectations → Dollar/yields strengthen → Gold comes under pressure again.
This is why the options market deserves attention now.
Options don’t necessarily determine gold’s final direction, but they clearly amplify price volatility around key data releases.
Especially in the current environment of significant market divergence, if the nonfarm data significantly deviates from expectations, gold could experience rapid swings up and down.
So don’t simply interpret:
"ETF increase = gold will immediately continue to rise."
A more accurate understanding is:
ETF funds are providing medium-term demand support, while nonfarm and Fed expectations determine short-term volatility direction.
If ETFs continue to increase holdings while nonfarm weakens and expectations for rate cuts or no hikes rise again, gold’s bullish structure will be further strengthened.
But if nonfarm is stronger than expected and the probability of rate hikes continues to rise, gold may still see a significant short-term pullback.
In short: ETF increases indicate institutions have not exited, while options imply volatility around data releases may further intensify. The true direction of gold will still depend on the nonfarm report on Friday. $CORE keeps postponing the promised time. On the surface, it's due to node upgrade technical issues, but in reality, it exposes major risks in the project.
A hard fork isn't completed with a single click; decentralized nodes aren't fully controlled by the project team. Some validators refuse to upgrade to the new version, and the project team can't force nodes to comply, so they can only indefinitely delay deposits and withdrawals to avoid a major chain split incident.
Exchanges also dare not take the risk to reopen. As long as the network nodes are not running the same version, once deposits and withdrawals are reopened, transfer errors and ledger mismatches will occur. Exchanges cannot bear this risk and can only delay accordingly.
What frustrates retail investors the most is: deposits and withdrawals are closed, but trading can still proceed normally. The market price continues to fluctuate, but you can't withdraw or deposit your coins, leaving you stuck.
The excessive token issuance amount remains unmentioned, leaving all risks to secondary market traders.
Tomorrow at 11 o'clock becomes a life-or-death window again. If it is postponed once more, panic in the market will fully ferment. The result... today was just waiting in vain Based on pons's current revenue situation, using pump's P/rev (50% used for buybacks), the optimistic market cap can reach 5.4 billion (assuming the current revenue scale remains stable).
If the popularity lasts for 1 month and then drops to 10% of the current level, the pessimistic valuation should be around 540 million.
If it falls somewhere in between, depending on the revenue decline, for example dropping to 20% of the current level, the valuation would be around 1 billion.
For another platform, AI, the optimistic market cap can reach 1.5 billion, and if future revenue drops to 10%-20% of the current level, the pessimistic valuation would be 150-300 million.
It's a bit of a pity; earlier research might have allowed for a higher valuation.$FIL FIL really didn't disappoint the short sellers; it couldn't hold above $0.8 for a day, and now it has fallen below $0.8 to around $0.78. I can only say that the IPFS narrative is the biggest trap for retail investors, possibly still holding onto die-hard fans from 2021.
When I compare AR with FIL, some say AR's storage capacity can't compete with FIL. I can only say it's the classic storage capacity, the classic FIL divine mechanism. Anyway, the storage capacity is quite good, but the coin price doesn't really rise.
It's okay, I believe the FIL project team has been working on things. But I want to say, brother, wake up! I've been hearing all kinds of positive news about FIL from 2021 to 2026, and I feel like I've been fooled by FIL so much. FIL might be the best at word-of-mouth hype in the crypto world.
Later, I gradually understood that a project team constantly working and intervening too much is actually very unfavorable for the coin price. After years of ups and downs in crypto, I gradually realized that only those coins whose project teams completely give up control have the potential for explosive growth; see Dogecoin and SHIB for details.🚨【Nonfarm payrolls haven't been released yet, but the market is already confused】
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the most critical card before the September FOMC. Employment data is currently mixed: ADP is weak, but JOLTS job openings remain resilient, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen back above about 60%.
So what really matters tonight is not just the new jobs number, but the unemployment rate + hourly wages + revisions to previous data.
🔥 Data too strong: employment and wages exceed expectations → rate hike expectations continue to heat up → USD and US Treasury yields under pressure, BTC support near 76,000 is key to defend.
🟢 Moderate cooling: employment slows, wages fall back but the economy doesn't collapse → the market's favorite “Goldilocks” scenario, BTC has a chance to retest 80,000.
⚠️ Data too weak: employment deteriorates sharply → short-term may first price in rate cuts, BTC quickly rallies, but recession concerns follow, making a spike and then a pullback likely.
So my stance tonight is clear: no guessing before the nonfarm data, watch the first wave when data comes out, then look for confirmation in the second wave.
The first candlestick may be sentiment; the second phase of the move is the real money's choice.
Use low leverage, control position size, don't let one piece of data disrupt your trading plan.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 A few days ago, $OKB dropped steadily from around $120, and I didn't make any moves. When it fell to around $111, I started to feel tempted, but I still wanted to wait for $110, since that round number had held several times before.
The price touched $110 for the first time and quickly bounced back, so I bought one-third of my planned position at $111.3. The position wasn't large, and my original plan was simple: hold if $110 holds, exit if it breaks.
After buying, OKB quickly rebounded above $112. At that moment, I felt I entered well and even started planning how to take profits in batches once it climbed back above $115. But the market didn't give me that chance; the price circled around $112 and then dropped back to $110.
When it fell to around $109, I initially placed a buy order to add to my position but hesitated and canceled it after a few minutes. The reason was straightforward: my initial trading plan was to bet on $110 support, and now that support was broken, adding more would mean changing the rules on the fly.
In the end, I sold half near $108.5 and set a stop loss at $104.8 for the remaining position. Later, OKB dropped to around $105, which made me uncomfortable, but I was also relieved I hadn't kept adding during the decline. Currently, the price is around $106, so this trade is temporarily at a loss, but the loss is still within the planned range.
Looking back, my mistake wasn't being bullish on OKB but rather doing short-term support trading and then comforting myself with long-term positives after the support broke.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Yesterday I saw that Robinhood Chain's DEX daily trading volume exceeded 1 billion USD. My first reaction was: Is RWA / Tokenized Stocks starting to explode? After all, the story Robinhood Chain has been telling from the start is very clear: bringing stocks and real-world assets onto the chain to create a truly "on-chain Wall Street." But as I dug deeper into the data, I found that things are not quite as I initially thought. $01｜The explosion is real According to DefiLlama data, Robinhood Chain's recent on-chain activity growth is very obvious: 24H DEX trading volume about $1.4B 7D DEX trading volume about $7.8B Weekly growth about +96% TVL about $776M Stablecoin Mcap about $833M So, the fact that "Robinhood Chain has suddenly become active recently" is not really in doubt. Also, it is necessary to clarify a common misjudgment here: These DEX volumes are not mainly driven by any single Meme Launchpad. Currently, the main source of Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume still comes from Uniswap. In other words, we cannot simply conclude: Meme exploded → so RobiBitcoin is hovering around $77K, well below the recent $80K area, and the market mood has turned noticeably cautious. But here’s what I’m watching 👀 BTC ETF flows have turned volatile — around $236M flowed out on Sept. 1, yet the following session saw roughly $101M return. Meanwhile, ETH and other major crypto ETFs have continued attracting capital. So I wouldn’t rush to call this an institutional exit. August tells a different story too: U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled in roughly $3.5B, while BitcoiIn-depth analysis of the market trends for SanDisk, Nvidia, commercial space rockets, and the AI sector on September 3
Risk warning: U.S. stocks belong to overseas markets and are affected by multiple risks including Federal Reserve policies, exchange rates, geopolitical issues, and overseas regulations. The following is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Trading overseas stocks carries a high risk of loss; please exercise caution.
On September 3 Beijing time, the global market is in a critical window of competition ahead of the release of the U.S. August nonfarm payroll data. The ADP small nonfarm data fell short of expectations, slightly lowering the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, but the market did not heavily bet on the trend and remained overall cautious. Storage chips and AI computing hardware showed relative resilience; the AI sector experienced severe internal divergence, with the hardware chain strengthening while application software continued to face pressure; the commercial space rocket sector was driven by themes and experienced significant volatility. The high level of U.S. Treasury yields remains the core factor suppressing all high-valuation growth sectors. September is traditionally a correction month for U.S. stocks, and institutional quarterly portfolio adjustments further amplify sector volatility.
SanDisk, as a core AI storage stock, showed a high-level oscillating correction pattern on September 3. Benefiting from the explosion in flash memory demand driven by AI inference, the stock price had already accumulated significant gains. In August, investors released optimistic long-term guidance, signing large long-term supply agreements, and HBF high-bandwidth flash memory technology was deployed for AI data centers. The market is optimistic about the long-term incremental space for enterprise-level NAND flash memory. However, entering September, institutional divergence appeared at high levels, with some large hedge funds choosing to reduce holdings and exit, coupled with a slowdown in storage chip price increases, leading to profit-taking in the stock price. At the industry level, AI servers bring strong certainty to storage demand, and enterprise orders are sufficient; however, consumer storage demand remains flat, showing clear structural differentiation in the industry. In the short term, SanDisk's stock price is highly tied to U.S. Treasury yields and AI capital expenditure expectations. If the nonfarm data is stronger than expected, U.S. Treasury yields rise, and high-valuation storage sectors will face valuation compression; if employment data weakens, interest rate expectations cool, and storage contracts are realized, there is a chance for recovery. The risk lies in storage being a strongly cyclical industry; if downstream cloud providers reduce capital expenditures, prices and profits will quickly decline, putting pressure on high valuations.
Nvidia closed up 3.21% overnight at $224.41, with a trading volume exceeding $34 billion, maintaining high trading enthusiasm. Dell Technologies reported better-than-expected earnings, with AI server revenue growing significantly, indirectly validating the strong capital expenditure in downstream computing power and supporting Nvidia's fundamentals. News-wise, Nvidia invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek to expand AI infrastructure and automotive AI business boundaries. Jensen Huang publicly expressed optimism about global AI infrastructure expansion, boosting sector sentiment. On the funding side, institutional divergence increased; some funds used the positive news to cover positions, while many institutions took profits during the rebound. Nvidia's current valuation fully reflects high growth expectations and is very sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury yields. If nonfarm employment data strengthens and rate hike expectations rise, Nvidia will face valuation contraction pressure; if employment data weakens, it will benefit the stock price to continue testing highs. Fundamental risks also exist: rising HBM storage costs squeeze gross margins, and competition from cloud providers' self-developed chips intensifies, which will divert orders long-term, requiring ongoing verification of future performance.
The commercial space rocket sector, represented by SpaceX, maintained a theme-driven oscillation pattern on September 3. In terms of industry narrative, the market has conceived a new concept of space computing power, envisioning deploying AI computing centers in space, using solar energy to solve power and heat dissipation issues of ground data centers; institutional research reports are optimistic about the long-term prospects brought by Starlink networking and Starship iterations, raising target prices and imagining a long-term story combining aerospace and AI. However, on the market front, the sector is a typical story-driven track with insufficient short-term earnings realization. The Starlink business is profitable, but rocket launches and space AI projects continue to consume cash flow, making it difficult to contribute significant profits in the short term. Without major launch events to catalyze, the sector struggles to achieve independent upward momentum and fully follows overall market risk appetite. During risk appetite improvement phases, aerospace themes are easily speculated on by funds; once the market seeks safety, high-valuation themes are the first to be sold off. Upcoming Starship launch tests will be important short-term catalysts but carry failure risks that could cause sharp stock price fluctuations. Overall, the sector is highly elastic and uncertain.
The AI sector showed clear polarization on September 3, with the computing hardware chain demonstrating strong resilience while AI application software continued to weaken. On the computing side, chips, servers, optical modules, and storage supply chains benefit from cloud providers' capital expenditures, with orders having real support. Hardware segments including Nvidia and SanDisk attracted capital favor. In contrast, the AI software application track, despite continuous iteration of large model technology, saw enterprise payment conversion fall short of earlier optimistic expectations, with commercialization progress lagging behind prior stock price gains, leading to continuous capital outflows and significant declines in many AI software companies. The AI sector has left behind the era of broad-based gains and entered a phase of separating the true from the false. Capital no longer blindly speculates on concepts but begins to differentiate companies based on real revenue and order fulfillment ability. Stocks with realized performance are favored, while pure story-driven stocks face ongoing valuation pressure. As a long-duration growth asset, AI is strongly constrained by risk-free interest rates, and rising U.S. Treasury yields will suppress the sector's valuation baseline.
Summarizing the market logic on September 3, the common core variable for SanDisk, Nvidia, commercial space rockets, and the AI sector is the nonfarm employment data released in the evening. The strength of employment data will change Federal Reserve policy expectations, drive U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations, and directly determine the short-term direction of high-valuation tech assets. Before the data release, all sectors are likely to maintain oscillating competition, with only a significant surprise triggering a one-sided market. Comparatively, Nvidia has solid hardware orders and the strongest fundamental resilience; SanDisk benefits from AI storage growth but is constrained by cyclical attributes; the AI software sector faces commercialization uncertainties; the commercial space rocket sector has the largest story potential but the longest earnings realization cycle and highest volatility risk.
Going forward, key observations include nonfarm employment numbers, unemployment rates, and real-time changes in U.S. Treasury yields, which will determine the overall tone of the tech sector in the coming days. A reminder again: overseas stocks are highly volatile, and the risk of correction in high-valuation growth stocks should not be ignored. Ordinary investors should avoid blindly chasing highs and rationally distinguish between long-term industry logic and short-term stock price fluctuations. (Full text 1472 words)September 3 Afternoon Market Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. Stock Market In-Depth Interpretation
Risk Warning: Virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity explicitly prohibited in China, not protected by law, and leveraged trading can easily result in total loss of principal. The U.S. stock market is an overseas market with multiple risks including exchange rate, geopolitical, and overseas regulatory risks. The following is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Participation in trading is strictly prohibited.
On the afternoon of September 3 Beijing time, as the Asian session ended and transitioned to the European session, global financial markets entered the final quiet phase before the release of non-farm payroll data. Overall market trading began to pick up, with funds generally reducing positions, awaiting direction from the key employment data released in the evening. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained range-bound oscillations with repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears; U.S. stock futures showed cautious pre-market sentiment with narrow fluctuations among the three major indices, and internal divergence appeared within the tech sector. U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index, and Middle East geopolitical conflicts remain the core factors driving the pricing of all risk assets. The correlation between cryptocurrencies and U.S. tech stocks remains high; if data exceeds expectations, it could trigger violent fluctuations in both markets simultaneously, significantly increasing the probability of flash crashes and forced liquidations.
Bitcoin (BTC) on the afternoon of September 3 was digesting at a high level, trading within a range of $76,400 to $77,800 during the day. After a significant rally throughout August, the market logic for September has clearly shifted. The Jackson Hole meeting released hawkish signals, prompting the market to raise the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, putting continuous pressure on valuations of risk-free assets and directly limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum. After failing to break resistance at $81,000 to $82,000, bullish momentum has clearly weakened, making it difficult to launch a new effective rally before the non-farm payroll data release.
At the capital level, a key change has occurred: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from sustained net inflows to a phase of net outflows, with institutional funds choosing to take profits at high levels. Incremental buying has weakened, lacking sufficient capital to push prices to challenge previous highs. On-chain data shows no large-scale concentrated selling by whale accounts, providing bottom support, but ordinary retail investors are increasingly taking profits at highs, reducing overall market bullish consensus. The derivatives market’s open interest remains high, with many buy and sell orders stacked at key price levels. From afternoon to evening, any price touching these critical points is likely to trigger a chain of forced liquidations, further amplifying price swings. The crypto market has no limit-up or limit-down mechanism; regulatory news or sudden geopolitical events can instantly reverse market trends, so relying solely on technical indicators has limited reference value. The core variables in the afternoon session remain U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. If subsequent non-farm employment data exceeds expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar will rise, putting further downward pressure on Bitcoin; only if employment data weakens, leading to yield declines and risk appetite recovery, will Bitcoin have the conditions to retest upper resistance. The ongoing tense Middle East situation is pushing oil prices higher, raising market concerns about inflation rebound, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, indirectly suppressing Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) is a typical high-beta asset, with price movements closely following Bitcoin but generally exhibiting greater volatility. On the afternoon of September 3, it traded within a range of $2,340 to $2,420. During market rallies, Ethereum often outperforms Bitcoin, but in times of risk aversion, it also experiences deeper pullbacks. Besides the systemic trends driven by Bitcoin, Ethereum is influenced by multiple factors including spot ETF fund flows, DeFi on-chain activity, staking unlocks, and sector rotation. The current ETH/BTC ratio remains low, indicating market capital allocation favors Bitcoin, making it difficult for Ethereum to develop an independent trend. Although Ethereum’s spot ETF maintains small intermittent inflows, its scale and sustainability are far less than Bitcoin’s ETF, unable to drive independent upward momentum based on fundamentals alone. Compared to Bitcoin, institutional support for Ethereum is weaker, and during risk-off phases, funds exit faster, showing less resilience. The afternoon market scenario is clear: Bitcoin holds its range, Ethereum follows with range-bound consolidation; if Bitcoin breaks key support effectively, Ethereum will face a deeper correction.
Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on the afternoon of September 3, futures for the three major indices fluctuated narrowly with overall cautious sentiment. Historically, September is a traditionally weak month for U.S. stocks, with institutions conducting quarterly portfolio rebalancing and the market repricing the Fed’s interest rate path, accumulating short-term correction risks. Elevated Treasury yields directly suppress high-valuation growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors, with the Nasdaq index most affected, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 show relatively more resilience. Sector divergence is evident: the computing hardware supply chain remains resilient, while funds continue to flow out of AI application software sectors as the market abandons pure story-driven speculation and focuses more on actual corporate revenue realization. The intensifying Middle East geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices raise concerns about inflation rebounding, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain high rates or even hike further, continuously suppressing stock valuations.
The ADP small non-farm payroll data was released early and fell short of market expectations, somewhat easing fears of rate hikes, but the market remains cautious and will not make large bets ahead of the official non-farm employment data release. This non-farm data is the most important reference before the September Fed meeting, directly determining the Fed’s subsequent policy path and dominating the direction of global risk assets in the coming days. The correlation between U.S. stocks and crypto assets remains high, sharing the same global risk appetite logic. Strengthening U.S. tech stocks and rising risk appetite indirectly benefit Bitcoin and Ethereum; collective sell-offs in U.S. stocks lead to unified reductions in high-risk assets, pressuring cryptocurrencies simultaneously. There is also a capital siphoning effect: as U.S. stocks become more profitable, some speculative funds flow back from crypto to stocks; when risk aversion spikes, funds withdraw simultaneously from both markets, causing synchronized volatility in crypto concept stocks, confirming their close linkage.
In summary, the core contradictions among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. stocks on the afternoon of September 3 focus on Fed policy expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, oil prices, and non-farm employment data. Before the data release, the market is likely to continue range-bound battles from afternoon through the European session, with large one-sided moves requiring major data or sudden events as catalysts. Derivatives leverage positions have not fully cleared, market sentiment is highly sensitive, and false breakouts and rapid flash moves will frequently occur, making technical support and resistance levels not absolutely reliable. Going forward, close attention should be paid to non-farm employment numbers, unemployment rates, and the immediate reactions of Treasury yields and the dollar index, as these will directly determine the subsequent market direction.Writing $CORE ⚠️ The deposit and withdrawal opening time has been postponed again, disappointing market expectations. Originally, the market expected deposits and withdrawals to open today at 11:00, but the latest maintenance time has been delayed to 17:00. This means that work such as exchange adaptation after the hard fork, on-chain verification, and balance reconciliation may still not be fully completed. Under these circumstances, exchanges dare not rashly resume deposits and withdrawals; the core issue is to avoid risks such as abnormal asset balances and accounting errors. Of course, the specific reasons still require official explanations from the exchanges and project parties, and conclusions cannot be drawn solely based on the delay. However, from the market sentiment perspective, the expectation that the "crisis is about to be resolved" has clearly cooled down. Even if deposits and withdrawals can resume as scheduled at 17:00, on-chain earning/staking related products have not yet resumed, meaning the impact of the event is not completely over. The market may face two scenarios: ① Further delay at 17:00 → sentiment worsens further Funds originally waiting for deposit and withdrawal resumption may continue to watch and even choose to exit. If delayed again, the market will easily interpret it as the problem not being fully resolved, and confidence may be further shaken. ② Smooth resumption of deposits and withdrawals at 17:00 → short-term long-short game On one hand, some bottom-fishing funds may believe the worst phase is over and start to try entering; on the other hand, funds that previously obtained chips through on-chain loopholes may also transfer assets to exchanges after deposits and withdrawals resume, creating potential selling pressure. Therefore, resuming deposits and withdrawals does not equal a complete negative outcome$PEPE fell back to 0.0000033, is the meme season over? I don't think so
PEPE turned red again today, at $0.00000337, down 3.35%, with the group chat full of "meme is dead" wails.
Stay calm. PEPE's rebound doubling from the low point and then pulling back is perfectly normal. Today the entire meme sector is retreating: BONK down 5.2%, NEAR down 5.2%, even TRUMP crashed 6%.
But look at $ARB up 13.8%, $FIL up 13.2%, Mantle up 4.2%, the money hasn't left the market, it just shifted from pure memes to L2s and storage with narratives and ecosystems. This shows the market is evolving, not dying. PEPE's problem has never been bad charts, but that it "only has charts." Without new narratives or ecosystem empowerment, relying purely on FOMO and Musk's hype, the heat fades quickly.
My strategy: keep a small position in PEPE as a sentiment indicator, but don't hold heavy long-term. The memes that can truly survive cycles need to have payment use cases like DOGE or political IP like TRUMP, otherwise it's just a one-hit wonder. For now, wait for the next wave of risk appetite to return before making moves. Aave Raises USDe Interest Rate: ETH Pressure Comes from Yield Comparison
A detail in the DeFi circle today is worth noting: Aave's risk management side continues to raise the base interest rate related to USDe borrowing, increasing the base rate on some deployments. This news may not directly drive $ETH, but it reminds the market that on-chain capital is repricing yields. In a high interest rate environment, DeFi is not impossible to operate, but every dollar is being carefully calculated.
$ETH is fluctuating around $2380 to $2450 today, and the weakness lies here. It's not that the ecosystem is lacking or that assets are not accumulated, but when U.S. Treasury yields are high and rate hike expectations rise, the market compares ETH yields and on-chain risks against Treasury yields, money market funds, and stablecoin yields. As long as the risk-free rate is high, ETH’s valuation will be suppressed.
Aave raising USDe rates indicates that the on-chain lending market is also adapting to this environment. As funding costs rise and arbitrage space narrows, leverage will become more cautious. For $ETH, DeFi activity is certainly positive, but if the activity comes from more expensive borrowing and tighter risk parameters, the short-term impact may not be purely positive. The market will ask: Is this healthy demand, or a forced price adjustment to control risk?
The key takeaway here can be placed under "yield comparison." Many people buy ETH just by looking at the price, but institutions look at yield and risk. ETH staking yields, DeFi lending yields, stablecoin rates, and Treasury yields—these lines together truly determine whether capital is willing to enter. ETH is not competing with Meme; it competes with a range of yield-bearing assets.
The short-term levels remain the same: 2400 is defense, 2500 to 2550 is confirmation, and 2300 is structural risk. News like Aave’s won’t directly change the candlestick but will affect capital’s attitude toward on-chain leverage. If ETH can’t reclaim 2500, no matter how DeFi rates adjust, it will be hard to become a primary price driver.
Conversely, if Fed expectations ease later and Treasury yields fall, the attractiveness of on-chain yields will significantly increase. At that time, $ETH staking, DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA narratives will become easier to tell again. What’s suppressing ETH today is not a single bad news but the yield environment. When the environment changes, valuations will change too.
I remind readers: don’t interpret ETH’s drop as ecosystem failure, nor see DeFi rate hikes as a big positive. The market is calculating a more complex equation—who has higher yields, lower risk, and better liquidity will attract money. For ETH to win this game, it must convince capital that on-chain yields are worth the volatility.
What’s most worth watching for $ETH today is not a single candlestick but the interest rate table. With Treasury yields rising and on-chain funding costs moving, ETH is caught in the middle being revalued. Only when it reclaims 2500 will the market believe this table is starting to tilt in its favor.
This article nicely connects trading with fundamentals. It’s not shouting ETH is cheap or criticizing ETH as useless, but telling readers that capital will be more selective in a high interest rate environment. For $ETH to strengthen again, on-chain yields, ETF inflows, and DeFi activity must all improve together. Without resonance among these three, any rebound should be seen as just a rebound, not a reversal.
The risk is that on-chain rate hikes may suppress leverage demand in the short term. Uncomfortable leverage makes DeFi activity cautious; cautious DeFi slows ETH’s elasticity. So today’s Aave news is neither simply bullish nor bearish; it’s more like a thermometer showing that on-chain capital is shifting from aggressive to refined.
The conclusion is to "wait for resonance." $ETH can’t rely on a single DeFi parameter or a single ETF inflow alone; ideally, macro easing, on-chain activity, and price breakout happen simultaneously. Without resonance, don’t mistake volatility for a bull retracement.BTC has pulled back, but has the capital really exited?
BTC has dropped back near $77,000, and market sentiment has clearly cooled.
But one detail is worth noting:
While BTC ETF has recently seen net outflows, ETH ETF has maintained inflows for several consecutive days.
So I think it’s too simple to interpret this as "institutions starting to retreat."
It’s more like the market is undergoing a capital rotation.
BTC had a relatively large gain earlier, so profit-taking is normal. Wow! Gold ETFs absorbed nearly 10 tons again this week, with gold prices hovering near historical highs, and institutions are still buying. On the options side, it's even more direct: bullish positions outweigh bearish ones, with many betting it will continue to surge after breaking through. Goldman Sachs has even raised its target to 4900.
But note that $BTC is touted as digital gold, yet when it comes to true safe haven demand, money flows first into gold ETFs, while BTC bounces along with the US stock market. The steadier gold $ is, the more this narrative seems unproven. Spot gold is already at 4400; the title of digital gold must be earned with real gold and silver. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $XAU Here we go again!
This time, 21 banks are joining forces to launch a US dollar stablecoin, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027, and they've even established a company!
Yesterday, these 21 globally systemically important banks finalized the plan.
The playbook is exactly the same as the TradFi beachhead we discussed before.
Strong lineup: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mitsubishi UFJ are all included. 21 banks across five continents, basically covering global USD clearing flows. This is a settlement layer alliance, not a marketing stunt.
The timing is tight. Only 10 banks were exploring this in October last year, doubling in less than a year; behind this is Trump's January 2025 executive order banning CBDCs and only supporting private USD stablecoins. This wave of banks is policy-driven to grab payment licenses.
The target is USDC and USDT. The stablecoin market is $309.6 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.4 billion, but the bank coin is aimed at institutional settlement and corporate treasury. Circle was backstabbed in June by Visa/Mastercard/Stripe launching Open USD, causing its stock to crash. Now with 21 banks joining, Circle is the one truly worried.
However, the company name, blockchain, and custodian are all undecided, and JPMorgan Chase hasn't joined the group. The real outcome won't be seen until 2027.
An 18-month slow variable; signals in 7 days don't matter.
The winning move: the bank coin on-chain will be the first to rewrite USDC's regulatory premium and exchange stablecoin spread. In the short term, bearish on Circle's chips, bullish on the "compliant settlement layer" narrative.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 $USDC $xCRCL If you want to polish this content into a more professional version suitable for posting in the crypto community, you can write it like this:
Writing
$CORE's recent actions have once again caused the market to question its so-called "decentralization."
😵💫 If the protocol can reach consensus through a small number of validator nodes and directly modify core rules, even adjusting the token supply cap, then where exactly is the decentralization reflected?
What deserves more attention is the actual distribution of validator nodes. If network validation power is highly concentrated, then theoretically, controlling enough nodes could push through major protocol upgrades. Today, emergency hard forks can be done due to vulnerabilities; in the future, if similar mechanisms are used to adjust the token economic model or even increase supply, what risks do token holders bear?
This is the real issue in the $CORE incident that the market should be wary of.
Of course, it is not yet conclusive that "this hard fork will definitely increase the supply to 2.1 billion" or that "the project team can arbitrarily increase issuance." But if the protocol governance mechanism indeed allows supply rules to be changed under low thresholds, then investors should reassess its governance structure, node independence, and long-term credibility.
🔥 For a public blockchain, technical vulnerabilities can be fixed, and code can be upgraded, but governance transparency and checks and balances ultimately determine how decentralized the network truly is.
If the community lacks sufficient voice in major protocol changes and validator nodes are highly concentrated, this is definitely not a minor issue.
What $CORE truly needs to prove to the market nowBitcoin’s Weakness Is Hiding a More Important Capital Rotation
$BTC losing momentum would normally be read as a risk-off signal.
But the latest ETF data tells a more nuanced story.
On September 1, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $236.5M in net outflows. At the same time, spot ETFs for $ETH, $SOL and $XRP recorded inflows of roughly $11M, $10M and $14M respectively.
That distinction matters.
The headline says institutional money is leaving Bitcoin.
The second layer says some of that appetite may be moving further down the crypto risk curve.
This is not yet proof of a full altseason. But it is enough to watch capital allocation more closely than price alone.
My radar is watching:
If $BTC stabilizes while $ETH continues attracting institutional demand, that would strengthen the rotation thesis.
Then I want to see whether $SOL, $XRP and $BNB can maintain relative strength rather than simply bounce with Bitcoin.
Below the majors, $SUI, $APT, $AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI become interesting because sustained outperformance there would suggest liquidity is expanding beyond the largest assets.
DeFi provides another confirmation layer.
If $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE begin attracting stronger volume alongside rising prices, the rotation becomes more credible because capital is reaching productive on-chain markets rather than only speculative tokens.
The same applies to infrastructure.
$LINK and $ONDO remain useful names to watch if institutional and RWA narratives regain momentum, while $TAO and $RENDER can show whether investors are willing to move into higher-beta AI exposure.
The bigger thesis is simple:
Bitcoin ETF weakness does not automatically mean crypto capital is leaving.
The more useful question is where that capital goes next.
August brought $3.52B of Bitcoin ETF inflows as $BTC gained roughly 25%.
If September becomes a month where Bitcoin consolidates but institutional demand continues spreading into other assets, the market structure could be changing underneath the surface.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue $BTC $ETH $SOL are hovering around 77,300 today with a volatility of less than 1.2%, and the volume ratio has shrunk compared to the past few days. ETH is even weaker, lying around 2,390, the ETH/BTC rate continues to drop, and funds are clearly retreating into BTC.
BTC is strong, while ETH and most altcoins are weak. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw over $200 million in volume, with longs accounting for 70%. Leveraged traders chasing the rally have been shaken out again, but open interest hasn't collapsed, indicating this is not a deleveraging apocalypse but a turnover.
On the macro side, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 37% to 66%, the 10-year US Treasury yield is holding at 4.8%, oil broke 94, yet sentiment remains greedy—the Fear and Greed Index is at 65. This combination of "price stagnation, greedy sentiment, and macro pressure" is most prone to false breakouts.
On the cycle, the daily chart is moving sideways, and the 4-hour chart is converging. Spot traders shouldn't rush; contract traders should reduce leverage to within 3x. If the 78k resistance can't be broken, don't fantasize about a bull market continuation; if 76k support breaks, look toward 74k. Profit opportunities only exist near support and resistance; the middle-range oscillation is just feeding fees to the market makers. #Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Special shoutout: "Believe it or not, the stock market will rise" statement's impact on cryptocurrency
Short-term sentiment
The statement boosts market risk appetite, U.S. stock sentiment will spill over to the crypto market, driving short-term pulses of strength in Bitcoin and altcoins. But it's only verbal hype, no substantive policy, so the rally lacks sustainability and is prone to pull back after profit-taking.
Stock market rise due to economic resilience: rate cuts delayed, high interest rates persist, crypto assets face medium-term pressure after short-term rebound.
Stock market rise due to fiscal easing and rate cut expectations: U.S. Treasury yields decline, crypto market is expected to receive sustained capital support.
Policy expectation boost
The market will trade on Trump's crypto-friendly regulatory expectations, anticipating deregulation and favorable ETF inflows; but if policies are delayed, this premium will quickly vanish.
Main risk points
Stock market fails to meet rise expectations, risk assets collectively fall, crypto declines more than U.S. stocks;
Expansionary fiscal policy pushes inflation up, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates, suppressing coin prices;
Politicians' statements are volatile, subsequent reversals will also impact the market. #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #SaudiCrude9YearLow Saudi Arabia’s August crude exports reportedly fell to their lowest level in nine years as tanker attacks and security concerns disrupted Gulf shipping routes. The decline is significant because Saudi Arabia is normally viewed as the producer capable of stabilizing global supply during emergencies. Delayed cargoes, rerouted vessels and higher insurance costs can tighten the physical market even when headline oil prices temporarily decline.
The situation highlights the difference between available production capacity and barrels that can actually reach customers. If shipping remains restricted, refiners in Asia and Europe may compete for alternative supplies, raising freight and fuel costs. My view is that the duration of the export decline matters more than today’s small movement in Brent or WTI. A short interruption may produce only a temporary risk premium, while several months of reduced flows could worsen inflation and weaken global growth. Verified loading data, tanker movements and insurance rates will provide better signals than political statements alone.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
"In a single quarter, selling 16.7 billion AI chips doubled, but because of a 200 million shortfall, Broadcom took a hit after hours."
In one quarter, selling 16.7 billion AI chips doubled, yet Broadcom took a direct hit after hours due to missing the mark by 200 million.
Wall Street institutions privately pushed next quarter's expectations up to 35 billion, and the management's slightly conservative outlook by 200 million gave the pre-pumped trading floor a reason to mercilessly sell off.
Major cloud giants, to avoid being blocked by GPU manufacturers, are lining up to place custom chip and switch orders at Broadcom's factories. In Q4 alone, the AI business is expected to surge to 21.7 billion.
Next door, cloud software platform Snowflake integrated large models into enterprise databases, and after a revenue surge, raised its guidance, rallying 20% after hours.
Hardware was criticized and sold off, while software enjoyed a buying frenzy; the capital rotation among giants continues. $BTC Bitcoin’s ETF Pause May Be More Important Than the Price Drop
$BTC is trading around the $77K area, but price is not the most interesting part of the market right now.
The more important signal is where institutional demand is showing up.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a nine-day inflow streak with roughly $201.9M of outflows on August 28. That sounds bearish until you look underneath it.
$ETH, $XRP and $SOL ETFs continued attracting capital around the same period. That suggests the institutional bid may be broadening rather than simply disappearing.
That changes how I read the current market.
If $BTC enters a consolidation phase while capital continues moving into large-cap alternatives, the next phase could become less about Bitcoin dominance and more about selective rotation.
My radar is watching:
$ETH for continued institutional demand.
$SOL and $XRP for confirmation that altcoin exposure is expanding.
$BNB, $SUI and $APT for whether higher-beta Layer 1s can attract follow-through.
$AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI are also worth monitoring, but I want to see real volume behind any breakout rather than isolated price spikes.
DeFi gives another layer to the rotation.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE could benefit if liquidity starts moving deeper into on-chain applications.
Meanwhile, $LINK and $ONDO remain important infrastructure/RWA names if institutional capital continues looking beyond the traditional majors.
The AI basket tells a similar story through $TAO and $RENDER, while $ARB and $OP remain useful gauges for whether Layer 2 liquidity is returning.
The bigger thesis is simple:
The next crypto move may be determined less by whether Bitcoin rallies and more by what happens to the capital underneath Bitcoin.
With U.S. jobs data arriving Friday and markets heavily focused on the Fed path, macro could decide whether this rotation accelerates or gets interrupted.
If institutional money keeps expanding beyond $BTC, which sector do you think captures the next major wave of liquidity?
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC
#AVGODipsSNOWPops
#RobinhoodChainRevenue $BTC Gold surged 1.38% in a single day yesterday, hitting $4388. What about Bitcoin?
It stayed stuck at $77,500, barely moving 0.3% in a day. The so-called digital gold, where is the safe-haven money? Not a drop flowed in.
Honestly, this situation is quite embarrassing. The Middle East bombed a US military base, oil prices rose above 95, silver increased nearly 2%. According to the script, BTC should have flown up with gold at this time, but it chose to lie flat. The 24-hour low touched 76,248, the high 77,868, with a volatility of less than 2%, a typical low-volume sideways pattern.
But one detail is worth pondering: ETF fund flows are quietly changing. On September 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $230 million, which sharply dropped to around $14 million on September 2, showing a clear exhaustion of selling pressure. Institutions are not out of the game; they are watching.
My view: Sideways movement is not bad; low-volume bottoming is much healthier than a high-volume crash. The $76,000 to $78,000 range has been shaking for a while, and the direction will be chosen in the next few days. With the Middle East situation plus Friday's nonfarm payrolls, two ticking bombs are in front of us. Don't go all in; keep some bullets for volatility. It's better to chase after a real breakout above $78,000 than to get slapped back and forth inside the range.
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ G20+SEC dual regulatory signals indicate that the crypto market is entering an era of rules. Two regulatory announcements worth noting have been successively implemented, carrying profound significance for the entire crypto industry.
The G20 reached a consensus to introduce a globally unified regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins; meanwhile, the US SEC Chair stated that the crypto regulatory proposal is a historic move aimed at making the US a hub for crypto assets.
Many people instinctively view regulation as negative, but it’s important to analyze the essence separately.
One of the biggest uncertainties in the crypto market in the past was the fragmented regulatory standards worldwide, with completely different policies in each country. The biggest concern for institutional capital entering the market was unclear rules.
The G20’s push for a unified framework represents the willingness of major global economies to provide a clear set of rules for the crypto market, not simply a blanket ban. With clear regulations, large institutions and traditional capital will dare to allocate on a large scale, which is a medium- to long-term fundamental positive.
The US SEC’s statement also sends a signal that the US will no longer simply suppress crypto but hopes to compete for dominance in the crypto industry through legislative regulation.
However, don’t be overly optimistic in the short term:
The regulatory framework is only a consensus to formulate rules, not rules that take effect immediately. The process from discussion and drafting to actual implementation of legislation will involve a long struggle, with repeated policy disagreements in between, making it difficult to directly trigger a market surge in the short term.
In the short term, the market will still be dominated by macro data such as non-farm payrolls and interest rate cut expectations; regulation will gradually change the industry’s underlying logic.