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ku #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August fell to 54.6, below July's 55.6, but still above the 50 expansion threshold; July JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, below the median estimate of 7.31 million, but slightly up from the revised 7.18 million in June. The data does not provide a one-sided answer: manufacturing momentum is slowing, but labor demand has not collapsed significantly. Meanwhile, CME data shows the market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 66% to 66.9%. The August nonfarm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, which will further test whether the cooling employment is enough to weaken rate hike expectations. For BTC and US stocks, what matters next is not the quality of individual data points, but whether the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk appetite will be repriced accordingly. $BTC 🚨Breaking! G20 Sends a Major Signal: Is Cryptocurrency Entering a “Global Regulatory Era”? Just now, a piece of news worth the attention of all crypto market investors: G20 countries have agreed to promote clearer regulatory rules for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. The goal is clear— To make digital assets safer, more transparent, and easier to use globally. Many people's first reaction might be: “Is the G20 going to open up cryptocurrency?” Actually, it’s not that simple. But what’s truly worth noting is that the global regulatory logic is changing. In the past, countries discussing cryptocurrency mostly focused on: ❌ How to restrict ❌ How to prevent risks ❌ How to prevent money laundering But now, more and more discussions are shifting to: ✅ How to regulate ✅ How to standardize ✅ How to involve institutions ✅ How to integrate stablecoins into the financial system What does this mean? Crypto assets are gradually moving from “gray innovation” toward “compliant financial infrastructure.” ⸻ 🔥 The biggest beneficiary might not be BTC In this news, I’m actually more focused on stablecoins. If major global economies gradually establish a more unified regulatory framework, then stablecoins could further enter: Cross-border payments → Settlement → Banking system → Digital finance At the same time, RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) may also see greater development space. So the future crypto market might no longer be just about: Will BTC go up? But rather: Will the global financial system increasingly use blockchain? If the answer is “yes,” then BTC, ETH, stablecoins, RWA, and the entire digital asset infrastructure could all receive new long-term capital inflows. ⸻ 📈 What about BTC? My judgment: Short term: Slightly positive. Mid term: Continue to observe capital and policy implementation. Long term: The logic is clearly more optimistic. But note: “G20 agrees to set rules” ≠ “Global unified opening of cryptocurrency.” Each country will ultimately implement according to its own financial regulatory system. So this news is more like: Opening a door for the entire digital asset industry, rather than directly announcing a bull market. If major financial markets like the US, Europe, Hong Kong, and Singapore continue to introduce clearer stablecoin and digital asset regulatory policies, the market may further reprice. ⸻ 🚀 The three directions I’m most focused on First: Stablecoins They may become an important bridge between traditional finance and crypto finance. Second: RWA If more traditional assets move on-chain, the market size could be much larger than today’s crypto-native assets. Third: BTC BTC remains the most important “liquidity anchor” in the entire digital asset market. So the real signal from this G20 release is not: “BTC is going to rise.” But rather: The global financial system is gradually accepting a fact—digital assets are unlikely to disappear. Since they cannot be ignored, the next step is: To bring them into the rules. And once global regulation shifts from “ban and restrict” to “regulate and standardize,” the entire industry’s valuation logic may change. This is the real point worth paying attention to in this news. ⚠️ The above is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please be cautious of risks. 1. Earnings Overview: A "Flawless" Report Card After the U.S. market closed on September 2, 2026, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) released its fiscal third-quarter earnings report for 2026. By any historical standard, this is an exceptionally strong performance. Key data are as follows: Total revenue, semiconductor solutions revenue, AI semiconductor revenue, and adjusted EPS—all four core metrics exceeded expectations. CEO Hock Tan stated in the report: "Demand for our customized AI accelerators and networking products remains very strong. AI semiconductor business revenue reached $16.7 billion in Q3, up 221% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter." This marks Broadcom's fifth consecutive quarter of accelerated sales growth. Free cash flow reached $13.7 billion, accounting for 46% of revenue—this level of cash generation is extremely rare in the semiconductor industry. However, the stock price fell more than 4% in after-hours trading, closing around $353. 2. AI Business: Comprehensive Acceleration, but "Not Enough Yet" AI semiconductors are currently Broadcom's core growth engine, with a stunning performance this quarter: · Actual revenue of $16.7 billion, far exceeding analysts' expectation of $15.93 billion · Year-over-year growth of 221%, quarter-over-quarter growth of 54% · Accounting for approximately 56% of total revenue—Broadcom has fully transformed into an AI-first company · Q4 AI semiconductor revenue is expected to accelerate to $21.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 236% Regarding major customers, Broadcom's core clients for customized AI chips include Google and Meta Beige Book: Economy is rising, unease is also rising — BTC faces short-term constraints! The Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that since July, U.S. economic activity has grown moderately, with 10 districts recording slight to moderate growth and 2 remaining flat. Consumer spending increased slightly, but price sensitivity has risen; auto sales are sluggish due to high oil prices and financing costs. Most manufacturing sectors have rebounded, with strong demand for defense and data center orders. Employment growth has slowed, with decreased demand in retail and hospitality sectors. Prices have risen moderately, with ongoing cost pressures from energy, transportation, and tariffs. Business outlooks are generally positive but remain watchful of energy prices, policies, and international conflicts. Impact on cryptocurrencies: ① Moderate economic growth + persistent inflation pressure = expectations of rate hikes remain, BTC remains under pressure ② High oil prices and high financing costs suppress consumption, risk assets face macro headwinds overall ③ Rising uncertainty, short-term risk appetite for funds unlikely to improve significantly ④ Beige Book tone is neutral, but the word "uncertainty" appears repeatedly; the market will continue to watch nonfarm payroll data In short: The economy hasn't collapsed, inflation hasn't dropped, BTC still needs to endure. Waiting for nonfarm data, waiting for direction. $BTC $ETH 21 banks Goldman Sachs, BofA, Citi, Deutsche Bank included just announced a joint USD stablecoin company, launching H1 2027. Watch how fast Twitter turns this into "bullish, banks printing." My article below explains why that reflex doesn't survive the data. $USDT $USDC $BTC #DeployableLiquidityPouring cold water on those still hoping for a liquidity boost to save crypto: even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand mentioned tonight that rising oil prices will push inflation back up, and no central bank in this global round dares to truly loosen. Interest rates are the gravitational pull on risk assets—the more expensive money is, the harder it is for assets like $BTC, which generate no cash flow, to rise. This Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the real referee: if the data is strong, the tone on rate hikes will harden further. Before the referee blows the whistle, I'd rather watch empty-handed than bet on a macro variable I have no control over. The most expensive tuition at the table is often paid for the phrase "I think it should go up."Wall Street has once again discovered that AI really can make money? SNOW's move tonight is really a bit outrageous. After the earnings report came out, it surged over 20% in after-hours trading, gaining about ten points in just one minute. It feels like Wall Street was doubting everything just moments ago, then suddenly everyone rushed in to grab tickets. But if you think about it carefully, this surge is not without reason. Snowflake reported revenue of $1.55 billion this quarter, a 35% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $0.62, directly surpassing the market expectation of $0.45. More importantly, the company raised its full-year product revenue guidance from $5.84 billion to $6.07 billion. In plain language: this time, not only was the homework done well, but the teacher also found that the homework for the future is well prepared. This actually connects perfectly with what I said earlier about "AI commercialization starting to be audited." Previously, AI companies told us stories every day about AI agents, AI infrastructure, enterprise intelligence, with each PPT slide more impressive than the last. As for whether they could actually make money, everyone could only listen for now. Now it's different. Investors have started using calculators to audit one by one: how much revenue is AI really bringing you? Are customers really paying? Can growth continue next year? And the homework Snowflake turned in this time, at least for now, is not the kind that would make the teacher throw down the pen in anger. The more enterprises use AI, the higher the demand for data storage, analysis, management, and AI tools. Snowflake is benefiting from this wave of demand. So for it, AI is not currently a threat to its business but rather an expansion of the original dining table. This is also why when SNOW exploded tonight, investors naturally started thinking about the entire AI software sector. If companies like Snowflake can continue to drive growth with AI, might other software companies do the same? So I think what really stimulated investors tonight was not just the words "Snowflake earnings beat expectations." But that Wall Street was once again reminded: after telling the AI story for so long, now someone is really starting to turn in their homework. As for tomorrow, the 20% gain has already run far ahead. I’m more interested in seeing if it can continue to deliver on this homework. If it can hold steady or even increase volume after a strong open, that means investors accept the logic; if it opens high and then gives back gains, then tonight’s 20% might just be everyone rushing to see the answers after hours. #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $SNOW $xSNOW $ZEC ZEC is about to plunge for the following reasons: 1. The current round of ZEC price increase was driven by the Grayscale Trust, but now we can already see shadows of the Grayscale Trust's past operation of harvesting GBTC clients. The high management fees (the Zcash ETF even charges 0.5% more than GBTC, reaching a 2.5% management fee) and even the shadow of the bankrupt subsidiary Genesis being linked to Zcash. 2. Data shows that many projects launched by Grayscale Trust were timed near the end of bull markets~BTC's current round near 60,000 corresponds to 30,000 in 2022 and 6,000 in 2018, sharing the common feature of multiple rebounds after halving. Ultimately, touching a decline around 0.4 looks more like the mid-stage of a bear market rather than the start of a bull market. There are two possibilities for BTC next: Either the rebound has ended and it will fall again, or it will break through 83,000 and then make a final bull trap before topping out. Many people call a bull market based on the weekly breakout, but I believe the bear market cycle has not disappeared, it has just been extended. If the cycle is only extended and not changed, then the so-called short-term "bull market" is very likely just a part of the bear market consolidation $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Here's the most trade-flavored earnings report tonight: Broadcom's revenue exceeded expectations, and its AI semiconductor segment gave a 236% year-over-year growth guidance, numbers so impressive they could headline the news — yet the stock price dropped 6% after hours. Why? On the surface, net profit missed the mark; digging deeper, this "explosion" had already been priced in. This is the most counterintuitive lesson in trading: good news alone doesn't raise prices, only exceeding expectations does; once everyone is certain AI will explode, that explosion is no longer valuable. Those who have been chasing the AI narrative until now should wake up — you're not buying performance, you're taking over others' expectations. It's the same in crypto: when the story is known by everyone, that's often the most dangerous time. $BTCBitcoin Is Weak. But Capital Is Not Leaving Crypto. That Is the Signal. The market looks weaker on the surface. $BTC is trading around the $77K area, while $ETH, $SOL and $XRP have also come under pressure. But the flow data is telling a more complicated story. Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $236M in net outflows on September 1, while XRP ETFs extended their streak to 11 consecutive sessions of inflows. That distinction matters. If institutions were simply abandoning crypto, I would expect the selling to appear across the major crypto investment products. Instead, capital appears to be becoming more selective. My radar is watching whether this divergence continues. $ETH is the first confirmation point. If institutional demand stays resilient there, while $SOL and $XRP continue attracting attention, the market may be rotating rather than de-risking completely. That would change how I read the weakness in $BTC. The next layer is altcoin participation. If capital starts moving further down the risk curve, $BNB, $SUI, $APT, $AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI should begin showing relative strength. DeFi is another test. $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE can tell us whether liquidity is actually moving deeper into the ecosystem or simply moving between a few large assets. Then there is infrastructure. $LINK and $ONDO remain important because institutional adoption, tokenization and on-chain financial infrastructure are still major themes behind the market. I would also keep $TAO and $RENDER on the radar if risk appetite expands into AI-related assets, while $ARB and $OP can show whether Layer 2s are participating in the rotation. The bigger signal is not that Bitcoin ETFs had a weak day. It is that Bitcoin weakness has not produced an equally broad collapse in institutional crypto demand. That gives us two very different possibilities. One is genuine risk reduction. The other is capital rotation. Right now, I am watching the second possibility closely. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat Bitcoin and Ethereum are both under pressure. But they are not telling exactly the same story. $BTC is trading around the $77,000 area after losing momentum from its August advance while ETH has fallen toward the $2,400 region. At the same time global bond yields are rising oil prices remain elevated and crypto derivatives have experienced another wave of liquidations. On the surface this looks like another market-wide correction. Underneath however there is a more interesting divergence. BitcoiSOL Returns to the $100 Mark: A Silent Supply-Side Revolution When $SOL hits $100 again, the market's pessimism sharply contrasts with my level of attention. A 3% drop in the past 24 hours is just a normal fluctuation in the crypto market; what truly deserves analysis is the underlying structural changes. More than the price itself, I focus on two ongoing facts: The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for September 28, which is not just a simple version update but a deep optimization of the consensus mechanism—improving confirmation speed will directly enhance the network's actual throughput ceiling; and the previously passed inflation reduction proposal means a permanent narrowing of new selling pressure. One is accelerating operation, the other is slowing issuance—this scissors effect forms the fundamental support for mid-term value. Of course, short-term trends depend on $BTC's "mood," but $SOL near $100 has re-entered my risk-reward observation range. When ETF funds provide liquidity base, and upgrades catalyze resonance with supply improvements, the resilience of this large-cap altcoin is often masked by panic sentiment. I will not overturn my logic because of a single bearish candle; on the contrary, this is the moment to recalibrate focus. $BTC $SOL $ETH Why the Twitter reflex, new USDT minted, therefore the market pumps, doesn't survive contact with the data Every few weeks it happens. Tether mints a few hundred million or a billion USDT. Someone screenshots the mint transaction. The caption writes itself: 'They just printed $1B USDT. Bullish.' The tweet gets traction because the logic feels obvious, more dollars in the system, more dollars available to buy Bitcoin, price goes up. It's a clean story. It's also not what the data shows. 1. The clRationally view the CLARITY Act, do not blindly speculate on the Act's benefits Many market participants are betting on the US CLARITY Act to bring market dividends, but the practical obstacles to its advancement are far greater than imagined. September 15 is only a procedural vote in the Senate to end debate, not the formal enactment of the Act. This vote requires 60 votes to proceed. Polymarket trading data shows the probability of success on September 15 is only 13-16%, and institutional Galaxy estimates the probability at only 10-20%, indicating an overall bleak outlook. There are many practical obstacles. The Senate Republicans have only 53 seats; even if all Republicans support it, at least 7 Democratic senators must be won over. The two parties have huge differences on crypto asset moral constraints, stablecoin interest, and DeFi anti-money laundering rules, with no consensus yet. Also, the September congressional schedule is crowded, with government funding issues prioritized, squeezing the time for the Act. If the vote fails on the 15th, the Act will basically be dead by 2026 and can only wait for the next Congress to reintroduce it. If the Act passes and is formally enacted, the positive logic is very clear: BTC, ETH will be legally defined as commodities under CFTC regulation, ending the chaotic SEC litigation enforcement. With clear regulatory rules, institutions and pensions will have compliant entry channels, bringing incremental funds to the market; stablecoins will also establish unified reserve regulatory standards, reducing market uncertainty and boosting short-term market sentiment. But the current probability of success is low, so it is not advisable to blindly bet on the market. $BTC $ETH $OKB #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 BlackRock Sold $201M of Bitcoin. But That Is Not the Whole Story. The crypto market started September with a notable change in institutional flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $236M in net outflows on September 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for most of the selling. At first glance, that looks bearish for $BTC. But the bigger signal is what happened elsewhere. Spot $ETH, $SOL and $XRP ETFs continued to attract institutional money even as prices came under pressure. That distinction matters. If institutions were simply exiting crypto, I would expect broad weakness across the ETF complex. Instead, the flow picture looks more selective. My radar is watching whether $ETH can continue attracting capital while $SOL, $XRP and $BNB hold up better than Bitcoin. If that continues, the next question is whether the rotation reaches higher-beta Layer 1s. I am watching $SUI, $APT, $AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI for signs of broader risk appetite. DeFi is another confirmation layer. $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE can tell us whether capital is moving deeper into on-chain financial activity rather than simply rotating between large-cap tokens. Infrastructure remains important too. $LINK and $ONDO sit directly inside the tokenization and institutional blockchain narratives that continue to develop. The bigger signal is not that BlackRock sold $201M of Bitcoin. It is whether that capital is actually leaving the crypto market or simply being reallocated. That is a very different market structure. Meanwhile, derivatives have already experienced a significant leverage reset, with more than $369M in crypto positions liquidated as volatility increased. So I am watching capital direction more than one day of ETF flows. If $BTC consolidates while $ETH, $SOL and $XRP continue attracting institutional demand, September could become a rotation market rather than a broad risk-off event. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat If we look at the current information together, I won’t simply say "definitely up" or "definitely down" for September. The biggest variables right now are still the Federal Reserve, oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and capital flows. In the short term, I personally remain cautious, even slightly bearish. The escalation of the US-Iran situation, oil prices climbing back above $90, rising US Treasury yields, and the market’s expectation of a September rate hike pushed to about 70%—this combination is not very friendly to BTC, ETH, and high-valuation assets. So I’m more inclined to expect high volatility and repeated shakeouts in September, first suppressing valuations before finding direction. For BTC, focus on key support levels; for ETH, watch 2400 and 2380—if these are continuously broken, the bearish space could open further. But we can’t be blindly bearish either; ETF funds haven’t completely withdrawn, indicating the market isn’t without buyers, just that macro pressure is temporarily holding back the bulls. My scenario: cautious in the first half of September, then watching CPI, employment, and the Fed’s stance in the latter half. Simply put, it’s not that the bull is gone, but macro suddenly stepped on the brakes of this bull 😂. I also won’t directly expect a crash in US stocks; the focus is on oil prices and US Treasury yields. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 The current $BTC BTC price pressure is mainly influenced by the combined effect of the following three major macro factors: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation concerns: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused international oil prices to surge (Brent crude oil breaking through $94), directly pushing up market inflation expectations. Fed rate hike expectations soar: Affected by rising oil prices and inflation concerns, the market's probability expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has surged to over 66%. US Treasury yields have climbed accordingly (the 10-year approaching 4.8%), and the rise in risk-free rates has imposed systemic pressure on interest-free crypto assets. ETF fund outflows: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recently experienced net fund outflows (such as a single-day outflow exceeding $230 million), indicating that some institutional funds are hedging or reallocating to $ETH $SOL BTC's long-term grand expectations, ETH becomes the short-term favorite Arthur Hayes makes a bold prediction that Bitcoin is poised to enter a historic bull market, targeting $1 million by 2030. His logic relies on multiple macro variables: the bursting of the AI bubble, significant global liquidity easing, and US yield curve control. Once the monetary environment shifts to extreme easing, scarce assets like Bitcoin will fully benefit. However, there is clear divergence within the viewpoint. While bullish on BTC long-term, ETH is listed as the current top pick, with potential short-term upside of 3-5 times, offering a better risk-reward ratio compared to other major coins. In contrast, HYPE has already priced in a lot of positive expectations, compressing further upside and making its risk-reward less favorable. The market also leaves a core question: In the next major crypto cycle, will the driving force come from institutional funds, liquidity flooding, or another wave of retail speculation? Robinhood's on-chain business continues to expand, combined with the rising heat of crypto concept stocks, increasing market variables. While the big long-term vision is certainly tempting, before the cycle truly arrives, it is still necessary to distinguish between distant imagination and the current market situation. Lofty price targets are just macro projections and cannot be directly used as a basis for short-term trends. $BTC $ETH $HYPE #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Is a major crash coming? Today, this question might be more worth discussing than "when will the rebound happen?" $BTC is currently around $77,000, still not reclaiming the $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market is putting pressure on risk assets: the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to about 4.81%, near a nearly three-year high, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly intensified. What’s more troublesome is the oil price. After the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Brent crude briefly surged above $94. Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures are resurfacing, naturally suppressing expectations for rate cuts. This is also an important backdrop for the recent weak performance of BTC, ETH, and altcoins. But it’s unnecessary to immediately call for a "crash." BTC has not yet shown signs of extreme leveraged liquidations; rather, the macro environment remains persistently tight. If BTC later breaks key support levels while Treasury yields continue to rise, it could trigger a chain reaction of "price drop—liquidations—further decline." So what we really need to guard against next is not a single large bearish candle, but a sudden tightening of market liquidity. Failing to hold above $80,000, and then losing the $77,000 level, will significantly increase risks. If even $75,000 can’t be defended, then discussing a "major crash" might no longer be just scaring ourselves.About a month ago, UNI was hovering around $3.2, but now it has risen to $6.3, an increase of approximately 97%, with a market capitalization reaching $3.9 billion. In the past 24 hours, it continued to rise between 8% and 12%. The short-term, mid-term, and long-term moving averages all show a bullish alignment, and the ADX indicator confirms the strength of the trend. However, the RSI has risen to 78, signaling short-term overheating that cannot be ignored. The real narrative change is the activation of the fee switch. The protocol takes a portion of fees from each transaction to repurchase and burn UNI on the open market, transforming the token from a pure governance tool into a protocol asset supported by actual cash flow. Tokenized stocks and RWA trading demand on Robinhood Chain remain strong, with daily trading volume around $130 million, where Uniswap holds a major share. Burn records continue to be refreshed, with about 150,000 UNI burned in the most recent day. As of September 2, the protocol's total locked value is $3.455 billion, and the 30-day trading volume reached $54.8 billion. However, macro pressures have not dissipated. Ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 16, the market prices in a 25 basis point rate hike with a probability between 35% and 66%. If non-farm payroll or CPI data is strong, Bitcoin may retest $75,000, and UNI is unlikely to be completely immune. Resistance levels above are sequentially at 6.37 to 6.5, 6.8 to 7.2, while support levels below are at 6.0 to 5.96 ETF Fund Data Interpretation: Institutional Demand Still Exists, but Buying Power Faces Uncertainty From the latest crypto ETF fund data, it is evident that institutional demand in the market still exists, but the internal structure of the funds is undergoing significant changes. On August 31, the BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million, with BlackRock IBIT as the core main force, contributing $205.9 million alone, showing a high concentration of funds in leading products. The ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $87.7 million, maintaining inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, indicating institutions are continuously positioning at low levels. The SOL spot ETF attracted about $153 million this week, setting the strongest weekly inflow record since the product launch, with funds clearly tilting towards the public chain sector. Overall, this is not a comprehensive withdrawal of funds but rather selective allocation among sectors. However, whether this fund enthusiasm can continue will face a critical test soon. The upcoming non-farm employment data will directly impact the Fed's rate hike expectations for September. If employment data exceeds expectations and strengthens, market concerns about rate hikes will intensify, and this current batch of selective buying may likely contract and weaken. Currently, institutional funds still maintain entry but are not indiscriminately buying across the board; they are selectively positioning for quality. Market trends should not be judged solely by ETF inflows but must also consider changes in macroeconomic data. Going forward, the key focus is whether this buying power can continue to hold after the non-farm data release. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 August was great, but will September be tough? Don't scare yourself! BTC rose 25% in August, ETFs saw inflows of $3.2 billion in one week, but as soon as September started, the US and Iran clashed, oil prices broke $90, US Treasury yields hit 4.81%, and BTC plunged below 77,000. CoinGlass data also shows that historically, September averages a 3% drop, with only 5 times of gains, no wonder the community calls it Rektember. But I don't think there's a need to panic. The 73,000-75,000 level is very strong; as long as ETFs don't run away, after some turnover, there's a high chance BTC will surge to 92,000-100,000. The real turning point is the September 15 interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a rate hike is 66%. If it happens, the liquidity logic disappears, but if not, expect a direct FOMO-driven rally. I'm watching SOL and HYPE sectors. SOL rose over 40% in August, the deflation proposal passed, upgrade on the 9th, if $98-$100 holds, next stop is $117. HYPE is even crazier; while BTC fell, it rose 4%, up 230% this year, just entered the Nasdaq index, whales are still accumulating, and the fee buyback and burn logic is solid. ETH is awaiting bill votes and is still undervalued. My trading advice: place staggered orders below 75,000 for BTC with a stop loss at 72,000; buy SOL, HYPE, ETH on pullbacks. The market always goes against human nature, controlling your hands is more important than anything. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 $ETH $SOL $BTC Tensions between the US and Iran have suddenly escalated, causing a rapid surge in risk aversion across global risk assets, with the crypto market taking the brunt of the impact. Bitcoin is sliding toward the $77,000 to $78,000 range, while Ethereum hovers around $2,400. The market mood has clearly shifted from chasing returns to protecting principal. 🌍 However, the real concern is not the geopolitical conflict itself, but the macroeconomic chain reactions it triggers. Brent crude oil has approached $95 per barrel, directly reinforcing inflation stickiness; meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is nearing 4.8%, keeping financing costs high. Combined, these factors have pushed the market's expectation of a Fed rate hike in September to about 67%, meaning the shadow of tightening liquidity is further looming over risk assets. 📉 For the crypto market, the shock is no longer just a single geopolitical event but a triple resonance of oil prices, inflation, and interest rate expectations. Bitcoin's most critical defense zone is currently between $76,000 and $77,000; if it can hold this level effectively, it may temporarily stabilize the situation. Once broken, technical selling pressure could accelerate. $BTC $ETH Risk Warning: The above is only a summary of market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile; please assess risks rationally. $WLFI I am not optimistic about WLFI. To put it simply: The story is big, but the token is trash. The FDV is already not low; a few cents only create the illusion of being "cheap." With a total supply of 100 billion, there is still huge release pressure ahead. No matter how well USD1 performs, it doesn't mean WLFI holders will profit. WLFI is essentially a governance token, not WLF shares; the company's profits and your profits are two different things. Highly centralized, with the project team and whales holding significant influence. The valuation heavily depends on the Trump narrative; once the political halo fades, the valuation can easily be repriced. The most critical point: such a high FDV, yet there is not enough strong token value capture. So my view on WLFI is simple: The project can grow big, USD1 can succeed, but WLFI may not be worth this money. Buying it now, I think you are mostly paying for the narrative. For this kind of coin, I’d rather wait for it to drop before discussing its value.$WLFI Why am I not buying WLFI right now? It's not that WLFI will definitely drop, nor that the World Liberty Financial project will definitely fail. On the contrary, I believe the WLF business could grow very large, but the WLFI token may not capture the greatest value. I mainly consider 7 dimensions: 1️⃣ The valuation is already not cheap WLFI’s price is only a few cents, which easily gives the illusion of being "cheap." But don’t forget, its total supply is 100 billion tokens. At $0.06, the FDV is already close to $6 billion. So the real question is not: "WLFI is only a few cents, can it go up?" But rather: Why should a governance token be worth $6 billion? 2️⃣ The biggest commercial asset is actually USD1, not WLFI WLF’s truly valuable business is USD1, stablecoin reserve yields, and future financial infrastructure. But there is a very critical issue here: The more successful USD1 is, it doesn’t necessarily mean WLFI will increase more. Because WLFI is essentially a governance token. A low price does not equal a low valuation. This is the core reason why I am not buying WLFI right now. According to on-chain prediction market Polymarket trading data and overseas crypto media reports, September 15 is the Senate procedural vote (to end debate), not the final signing and enactment of the bill. This round of voting requires 60 votes to proceed further. Polymarket's data with hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume shows the probability of passing on September 15 and pushing the bill forward is only 13-16%. Industry institution Galaxy estimates a 10-20% range, overall not optimistic. The real obstacle is very clear: the Senate Republicans have only 53 seats, even if all Republicans support, at least 7 Democratic senators' votes are still needed. Currently, the two parties have huge disagreements on officials' crypto asset ethics constraints, stablecoin interest clauses, and DeFi anti-money laundering obligations, with no compromise reached yet. The September congressional agenda is crowded, with higher priority issues like government funding squeezing the bill's time window. If the procedural vote on the 15th fails, the bill is basically dead for 2026 and can only be reintroduced in the next Congress. If the bill passes and is finally enacted, the benefits are very clear. Legally defining BTC and ETH as commodities under CFTC regulation ends the chaotic situation of SEC enforcement through litigation. Regulatory rules will be clearly established, providing institutions and pensions with a compliant entry basis, bringing incremental funds; stablecoins will have unified reserve regulatory standards, greatly reducing market uncertainty and boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, the market rarely discusses the bill's negative costs. Compliance costs will soar, and many small and medium projects#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Amid fragmented data, reassessing the Fed's next move On the eve of the crucial nonfarm payroll report release, financial markets are under subtle tension. Recent economic data show unprecedented divergence: on one side, leading indicators signal cooling, suggesting a tightening of excess labor demand; on the other, service sector wages and inflation remain stubbornly sticky, indicating persistent macro resilience. Under this combined force, expectations for a September rate hike have quietly intensified again. This shift in expectations stems from a subtle change in the Fed's policy bias. Compared to "mild slowdown caused by appropriately tight policy," "premature easing leading to inflation rebound" is a cost policymakers find harder to bear. Until inflation is confirmed to have fully returned to target, the Fed still prefers to keep the rate hike option as a risk hedge. The final nonfarm data will directly determine the September path: * Stronger than expected: robust wages and employment will firmly consolidate the hawkish stance, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, suppressing risk assets. * Moderate cooling: if data meet expectations, rate hike expectations will ease, providing the market a brief respite. * Exceptionally weak: although rate hike expectations will quickly extinguish, recession fears may follow, triggering market risk aversion. Data divergence is essentially normal noise during a cyclical turning point. Facing high-frequency market fluctuations, clarifying interest rate logic is far more crucial than blind speculation. Actually, combining Trump's White House interview tonight, Basent's speech, and statements from senior US military officials, I think the US is telling a story The core of this story is external communication. Before the midterm elections end (November 3), Trump will tolerate Iran's assertiveness, slow down military strikes, and lean towards economic sanctions Trump mentioned there would be one more brief attack on Iran recently, seemingly for military pressure, but I believe the core is to cover the key large cruise ships passing through the strait, ensuring more energy flows into the market before the midterm elections. As for the so-called Venezuelan oil impacting the US energy market in November, the core is to ease the supply pressure on the US energy market. At this critical timeline, several events and speeches seem unrelated, but woven together, I believe Trump is telling the market a "cooling down on Iran" story, with the ability to bring oil supply to the US—a "positive" story aimed at boosting support for the midterm elections. And I also see this as a key opportunity for Trump to prepare TACO before the midterm elections! #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Next, I'm more concerned about whether the support for BTC and ETH can truly be taken out by the bears, rather than whether they can still fall further. The reason is simple: several external signals that truly determine whether there will be a sustained decline later have not all deteriorated together. The Nasdaq is beginning to show signs of recovery, gold is rising again, and the US dollar index is falling. Once this risk appetite returns even a little, highly volatile assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can easily experience a quick rebound first. I'd rather miss a period of decline than add to a strong short position. For Bitcoin, the key level to watch is around 76,000. If it only briefly breaks below this and then quickly recovers, it looks more like a shakeout of longs rather than a complete trend reversal to bearish. For Ethereum, watch around 2,400. If BTC later returns above 78,000 and ETH also climbs back above 2,500, then short positions entered now are more likely to become the bag holders. Currently, my thinking is very clear: if support is not confirmed broken, I won't chase shorts; if it breaks and fails to recover, then I'll consider following the trend.The market doesn’t need another forecast. It needs confirmation. $BTC remains the anchor, but I’m keeping a close eye on $ETH for signs that risk appetite is picking up. If ETH begins showing stronger relative performance, $SOL and $SUI could become more attractive. For now, I’d rather let the market validate the move than try to predict it too early. What are you watching most: $BTC , $ETH , $SOL or $SUI? #BTC #ETH #CryptoTrading🔥The probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 68%. Just a week ago, it was around 35%, and market expectations have completely flipped. Three factors combined: The Jackson Hole speech was hawkish, stating inflation is still too high. The market understood the unspoken part — "If inflation doesn't fall back to 2% fast enough, we still have work to do." The Middle East conflict escalated, with WTI crude oil soaring 5.2% on Tuesday to close above $90. Oil rising → inflation expectations heating up → the Fed is even less willing to ease. Global bond markets crashed simultaneously, with the 10-year US Treasury yield spiking to its highest since January 2025. The market has started to bleed. US stocks opened September poorly, with the Dow down 0.79% and the Nasdaq down 1.03%. BTC fell below 77,000, and the Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $236 million on Monday. Friday's August nonfarm payrolls are key — if employment remains strong and oil prices stay high, the rate hike probability could surge to 75% or even higher; if employment cools significantly, the Fed has reason to hold steady. The 68% reflects the market repricing, not a Fed commitment. The direction is becoming clearer, but the real trump card lies in the data. 📊 👇 Let's chat in the comments: do you think there will be a hike in September or not? If BTC were a cat, it would now be lying on the windowsill at 77000, its tail tip pointing at the wall at 81000, pretending not to care, but its ears keep twitching. Have you noticed that the quieter the market, the more the underlying game feels like a meat grinder warming up? This September's game looks like Bitcoin has been hovering around 77000 for three days, neither hot nor cold on the surface, but if you zoom in above 81000, you'll see a liquidation wall of over $1 billion hanging in midair. This is not an ordinary resistance level; it's the shorts lining up, putting their necks into the same noose. In the last rally up to 81455, as the market just touched 80000, $277 million in short positions were instantly liquidated, and those high-leverage accounts didn't even get a chance to stop loss. Now history is almost repeating the same scene: shorts are gathering again at the high level, waiting for the same script. But the interesting part of this game is that the market is actually split internally, and the split is very deep. - On the spot side, Wall Street's BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $3.5 billion in August, hitting a nearly one-year high, with institutions buying with real money, no leverage, slowly building positions. - On the futures side, funding rates have turned negative, and a bunch of high-leverage players are stubbornly betting on a drop, crazily opening short positions. On one side are the calm and patient spot buyers; on the other are the contract shorts driven by gambling instincts. Their time horizons are not even on the same dimension. Institutions buy the narrative for next year and the year after, while contracts bet on tonight and tomorrow night's volatility. And the cruelest part of the market is: it always picks one side, making the other blink The value logic of Bitcoin is changing. It is no longer just an asset to bet on price increases. With continuous institutional capital inflows, expanded allocation of spot ETFs, and growing global demand for 24/7 liquidity and cross-border assets, $BTC is gradually acquiring a more important attribute — a neutral collateral asset for the digital age. 📊 Latest market signals are also worth noting: • Significant inflows have reappeared in US spot BTC ETFs, with institutional allocation demand still present • $ETH ETFs have recently maintained strong capital attraction, with signs of capital rotation still existing • September Fed policy expectations are repeatedly influenced by employment and inflation data, potentially amplifying risk asset volatility • US Treasury yields and the dollar trend remain key short-term variables for the crypto market • As RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain finance continue to expand, BTC’s financial attribute as a highly liquid digital asset is being revalued What truly deserves attention is not just how far BTC can rise next. But rather: When global capital needs an asset that operates without borders, without traditional bank clearing, and around the clock, will BTC become an increasingly important digital collateral layer? Scarcity determines why it has value. Deep liquidity determines why it can carry larger capital. Globalization and 24/7 trading give it advantages that traditional assets find hard to replicate. 🔥 In the short term, watch macro and liquidity; in the long term, watch BTC’s financial infrastructure attributes. #BTC #Three coins tugging around 100 yuan, XRP funds are solid, but for Meme, let's watch the sentiment first! $SOL near 100 yuan has again become a battleground between bulls and bears. The price has pulled back, but ETF funds have not withdrawn accordingly. BSOL's cumulative net inflow has surpassed 1 billion USD, and the Alpenglow upgrade at the end of the month is another catalyst. The biggest issue now is the rapid rise earlier; I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation. If it can stabilize above 100 yuan again, there is room for recovery; if it continues to lose ground, be prepared for profit-taking to continue releasing. $DOGE has recently returned to pure sentiment-driven rhythm. With a weak market, it’s hard for it to strengthen independently. ETF funds are not as active as with SOL or XRP, so whether the rebound can gain volume is more important than anything else; a hard pull without volume is basically short-term funds trying to save themselves. Let's wait for market risk appetite to return before making moves. $XRP institutional funds are indeed solid. The US spot ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, but the price has fallen back to around 1.33. Funds are coming in but the price isn’t rising, indicating selling pressure above is still being digested; as long as ETF inflows continue, I tend to interpret this as turnover rather than a direct trend deterioration. Looking at others, $HYPE’s next round of unlocking is approaching. Although previous support was strong, it still depends on whether buybacks can continue to absorb supply; $BOME remains a high-beta sentiment play, don’t chase without volume; $TRUMP’s team-related wallets transferring coins combined with upcoming unlocking pressure make the short-term most fearful of continued selling pressure expansion. If the rebound can’t hold, it still looks more like existing chips being cashed out. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 My local view on #BTC My plan: 1. We stopped at Strong Resistance - $83K (DONE) 2. Scenario one - pullback to at least $75K liquidity, then a move toward $83K–$85K (LOAD). 3. Fear & Greed Index - 71 4. Open Interest - rising, which means more traders are buying the dip, so we could see further downside. 5. Head & Shoulders pattern, which could play out at least as a liquidity sweep around $75,538. 6. Long zone 1: $74K/$72K 7. Long zone 2: $72K/$69K We got the correction from the Strong Resistanc$ARB is down. No pretending. But I'm not in a hurry to admit defeat. A coin that has been steadily declining since launch, treated like air by the market for over two years, suddenly pulls out a 30% bullish candle during a market downturn. I want to see how far it can really go. This wave is not air. Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum's shell, daily fees have exceeded one or two million dollars, DEX daily trading volume is in the billions, and 10% of protocol net income flows back to the ecosystem. The foundation just released its half-year report: 478 million transactions in six months, DAO income of 6.19 million, gross margin 97%, and licensing fees alone accounted for one-third of revenue in July. Elara has been upgraded, and tokenized stocks are also piling onto this chain. Bears shouldn't play innocent either. Contract volume surged several times in one day, open interest rose accordingly, short positions were squeezed up, not some sudden awakening of value investing. First, watch the 0.126 level above, then the market is calling for 0.14 and 0.15. Over 90 million tokens will unlock on the 16th. If the narrative can push the price above the unlock, that's real skill; if not, it's just burning shorts as fuel to finish a round. I'm still holding my position. It's not about stubbornly pretending to be brave, but wanting to see with my own eyes how high this story can be told.The Japanese yen is rapidly appreciating, Japanese government bonds are quickly depreciating, yields are accelerating upward, and preliminary defensive reductions in USD/JPY arbitrage trades have appeared! As mentioned earlier, the recent potential market threat has been the liquidity tightening caused by USD/JPY arbitrage unwind triggered by the yen's interest rate hike, and tonight's signs have preliminarily confirmed this. On September 17, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the current rate hike expectations have clearly surpassed those of the Federal Reserve. The market's main concern is not the September rate hike itself, but the signal of continued and rapid rate hikes following the September hike. Once the signals for continued and rapid rate hikes increase, it means the USD/JPY interest rate differential will narrow, arbitrage trades will unwind, yen assets will appreciate causing liquidity to flow back to Japan, leading to financial liquidity tightening. The first step to verify this is to observe the movements of the yen and Japanese government bonds. If the yen accelerates its appreciation and Japanese bond yields accelerate upward, it means the market has started trading on yen rate hikes, USD/JPY arbitrage trades are unwinding, and liquidity is beginning to flow back to Japan. Tonight happens to be such a case. Of course, given the current speed of yen appreciation combined with the speed of Japanese bond depreciation, this can only be considered a preliminary defensive reduction in arbitrage trades, but it is a dangerous signal. From my personal judgment, this is a preliminary defensive unwind. If the US dollar does not hike rates on September 15, but Japan hikes rates on September 18, the USD/JPY interest rate differential will narrow further, accelerating arbitrage unwind. At that time, if international energy prices do not fall below $85, the macro environment will remain unfavorable, coupled with liquidity tightening, which will then be the most favorable phase for risk assets! #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Missing out on one rally doesn't mean you've missed the entire cycle. On the contrary, when BTC quickly surges in a short time, the most dangerous thing is often not missing out, but being driven by FOMO to chase an already overextended market at a high point. 👀 Recently, the market's capital structure has been quietly changing. BTC remains the liquidity core of the entire market, but ETF funds have shown periodic fluctuations; meanwhile, institutional demand for ETH remains resilient, and some funds have started seeking new opportunities in high Beta assets like SOL and XRP. My capital framework will be more defensive: 🟠 Core → $BTC / $ETH hold the main positions in the portfolio, focusing on tracking ETF flows, macro liquidity, and trend structure. 🔵 Growth → $SOL / $SUI focus on capital rotation and ecosystem growth, but will not blindly chase prices due to short-term volume surges. 🟣 High Risk → $HYPE / $TAO use only a small proportion of funds to seek higher elasticity, prioritizing risk-reward ratio. 💰 Currently, I prefer to keep about 45%–55% in liquid funds. The reason is simple: the market is waiting for new macro catalysts. US employment data, inflation, and Fed policy expectations may all become triggers for the next round of volatility. If employment cools down and inflation continues to ease, market expectations for policy shifts will rise, and risk assets may gain new liquidity support. But if data remains strong, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rise again,You really can't watch this trash market; after a whole day, it's still stuck in the same place, everyone is just pretending to be dead. $BTC is still grinding around 77,000, it dipped to 76,200 during the day then pulled back. $ETH is fluctuating around 2380, $SOL stuck at 99, it looks like someone is blocking 100 with a brick. This isn't a crash, it's just that after August's wild run, no one dares to make the first move. Outside, a bunch of people are chanting mantras: bond yields rising, September rate hike odds going up, another round of Middle East conflict, ETFs had outflows yesterday. After chanting, they're ready to short. The problem is, all these things existed in August too, yet the coins were still bought up from the 60,000 level. This small pullback now looks more like cleaning out both leveraged longs and loudmouth shorts together. Don't overlook the other side. Institutions filled BTC spot products in August, Strategy is active again. ETH funds are still flowing in, someone is moving 50,000 coins up in a week, exchange inventories are not loose. Circle today also pushed euro stablecoins into the same cross-chain pipeline. Don't get misled by local dog news about SOL—CHUMP's roughly 80% of tokens suspected to be controlled by one entity is a different matter from mainnet upgrades and continuous ETF inflows. Short-term it can look ugly, but I still lean bullish on direction. If 76,000 becomes a floor, then the space above really starts to count. ETH needs to reclaim 2400 first, SOL needs to firmly hold 100 first. People switching sides during consolidation usually haven't figured it out, they're just jittery.$BTC $ETH That monthly candle in August gave people the creeps. First, it flattened out near 60,000, with volume shrinking like a fake market. Then a bullish candle changed the whole perspective, shooting straight up to 81,000, and social media started shouting "this time it's different" again. But before positions could be fully rotated, once Jackson Hole passed, the price dropped back to 78,000. Profit and loss were separated by just one weekend. This market isn't complicated; what's complicated is human psychology. The August rally had real fundamentals behind it: the CME Bitcoin futures gap was filled all at once for three gaps, with liquidations of short positions exceeding 1.5 billion USD. But if you say this is the start of a new trend, the large-volume bearish candle at the end of August disagrees—on-chain data shows that on August 29 alone, net inflows to exchanges exceeded 25,000 BTC, clearly indicating someone was selling. I only watch two levels: If 75,000 doesn't hold, August was just a large bull trap. In the middle consolidation, whoever makes the first move is at a disadvantage. ETH is weaker; 2,800 has become the new ceiling, and its exchange rate against BTC is still hitting new lows. What really matters in September are the September 6 Nonfarm Payrolls and September 11 CPI; these two data sets are more reliable than any candlestick. Historically, September tends to be bearish, but in the past five years, the average September drop is less than 2%, so don't trade based on the calendar. Do you now think the August breakout is invalid, or do you believe it was just a shakeout before the next rise? #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 MSCI almost kicked MicroStrategy and other “Bitcoin treasury companies” out of the global index before. If the proposal passes, 39 companies with a market value of about $113 billion could be affected. The stocks of these companies have long been traded by investors as proxies for cryptocurrencies. Although MSCI has temporarily decided to "suspend" this until February 2026, the matter is far from over. S&P has already teamed up with Pantera to launch a crypto index, requiring protocols to record positive protocol revenue for multiple consecutive quarters to be included. The threshold is getting higher, and the rules are getting stricter. Companies that rely on buying BTC to tell their story and don’t make much profit themselves will find it increasingly difficult to survive in the traditional financial world. ETH fell 2.53%, BTC fell 1.19%—the market is pricing in this expectation in advance. The myth of crypto treasury expansion may be moving from "wild growth" to a new stage of "compliance screening." Not all coin-hoarding companies will survive the next bull market. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $ETH $BTC The number of job vacancies per unemployed person in July rose slightly from 1.01 in June to 1.05. The increase is small but worth noting. We have come a long way from the 2-to-1 ratio in 2022. That was the "hot" job market everyone was talking about—two positions competing for every job seeker. Inflation pressures, wage spirals, and the Federal Reserve tightening policies. Now we are basically back to equilibrium. One job corresponds to one person. This is closer to normal. Not a crisis zone, nor a boom zone. Just... balance. The question is not whether this is good or bad, but what will happen next. Will it stabilize here? Will it fall below 1.0 and start flashing a "yellow light"? Or will demand pick up again? The labor market does not turn overnight. It drifts slowly. And currently, this drift feels more like a "soft landing" rather than a crash. But "soft landings" are rare and have very limited margin for error. Focus on the trend, not just a single month. At 3 AM, all three markets played dead together. BTC at 77127, dropped to 76261 during the day. ETH at 2384, low at 2356. SOL at 99.15, tested 97.4 then left. The drop was less than 0.3%, and volume didn’t explode. Some are already shouting about the September curse, interest rate hikes, Iran, hurry to short. Screw your short. The bond market is selling, interest rate hike expectations have risen to 60-70%, oil price is hovering above 90 dollars, BTC ETF saw a 200 million outflow on Tuesday. These are real. On the other hand: BTC rose over twenty points in August, institutions are still buying, positions aren’t crowded. ETH ETF keeps absorbing, BitMine continues to add. Circle expanded CCTP to EURC. SOL ETF has continuous net inflows, V1 upgrade on the 9th, Alpenglow on the 28th. CHUMP was found to be 80% controlled by one holder, that’s a local dog, don’t smear SOL’s reputation. Short-term is weak, structure is still in the box. Only if 76,000 holds can we talk about 80,000. ETH needs to reclaim 2400 first, SOL needs to stand back above 100 first. Just after the rise, some shouted 100,000, after two days of pullback they switched to shorting 60,000, both sides are emotional dogs. I’m still bullish, don’t betray during consolidation.ADP data falls short of expectations, rate hike expectations cool down, key market focus on non-farm payrolls The latest ADP employment data recorded only 38,000 jobs, down from the previous 46,000 and below the market expectation of 48,000. The data clearly missed market expectations, pouring cold water on the market's September rate hike expectations and loosening the probability of a rate hike. Affected by the data, BTC, ETH experienced a brief respite, and the market's panic over tightening liquidity temporarily subsided, opening a short-term rebound window. However, ADP is only a leading reference indicator; the real decisive test for market direction is Friday's non-farm payroll report. If the non-farm data also shows weakness, that will be the true trigger for the market. If the non-farm data is strong, the positive impact brought by ADP will quickly dissipate, and rate hike concerns will return. ADP only provides bulls with a brief buffer; the decisive battle is still on Friday. How long this rebound can last depends on subsequent economic data and the fermentation of market sentiment. It is not advisable to heavily bet on a reversal at this time. Priority should be given to observing the actual strength of the rebound before adjusting position pacing. Volatility during the data window period will be repeatedly intense; risk control must still be maintained, and short-term respite should not be mistaken for a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $OKB #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 ETF Fund Data Interpretation: The Market is Sector Rotation, Not a Large-Scale Capital Exit From recent crypto ETF fund flows, it can be seen that the current market has not experienced a large-scale capital flight; rather, it is more about capital rotation and switching between sectors. BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million on August 31, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $205.9 million, being the main force behind the inflow. ETH also performed impressively, gaining $87.7 million in funds, achieving 11 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with institutional funds continuously positioning at low levels. SOL ETF attracted about $153 million this week, marking the strongest single-week performance since the product launch, with funds clearly tilting towards the public chain sector. While mainstream assets steadily attract capital, the market funds are also beginning to seek high-volatility targets; HYPE's popularity continues to rise as traders hope to capture higher beta returns. During volatile and fluctuating markets, many traders fear missing out and blindly chase gains due to concerns about entering late. However, the crypto market never lacks the next opportunity; the risk of impulsively chasing gains far exceeds patiently waiting for the right entry window. Overall, funds have not collectively withdrawn but are being redistributed among different cryptocurrencies. In a volatile market, do not be swayed by short-term price fluctuations; observe institutional real movements through ETF fund data, and maintaining patience to wait for opportunities is far safer than impulsively chasing highs. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Nonfarm payrolls surprise on the downside! Employment hits an 8-month low, Bitcoin gets a breather window $BTC The evening ADP nonfarm payroll data fell far short of expectations, with the US adding only 38,000 jobs in August according to ADP, while the market expected 48,000. The employment growth rate hit its lowest point since January this year, clearly signaling a weakening labor market. Key highlights: ① Hiring demand in manufacturing and professional services sectors declined simultaneously, signaling a clear cooling in the job market ② The momentum for wage increases in low-wage positions has disappeared, with wage levels falling back to pre-pandemic levels ③ Even as employment growth stalls, Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize that controlling inflation remains the top policy priority Weak employment data has reignited market expectations for rate cuts, providing Bitcoin with short-term breathing room. However, the Fed’s stance remains cautious, and the macroeconomic battle is far from over, meaning short-term market volatility will only intensify. Going forward, closely watch subsequent nonfarm payroll data and interest rate decision statements, as these will be the true keys to determining the medium-term direction. The above is only a personal market view and does not constitute any investment advice #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Bitcoin has retreated to around $77,000, failing to hold above the $80,000 mark, but beneath the surface of this decline, capital flows are quietly rewriting the narrative. Data from September 1 shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of about $236.5 million, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP-related products still recorded net inflows during the same period. This is not a collective exit by institutions but rather a clearly directed internal reallocation. 💡 $SOL is currently the most intriguing asset: spot prices are under pressure, yet compliant ETFs continue to attract small-scale funds. This divergence indicates that some capital is still positioning amid volatility. The trajectory of $ETH is also critical; if institutional preference for alternative assets continues to outpace Bitcoin, the market may enter a more selective phase. The price levels I am watching are clear: whether $BTC can hold $77,000 and reclaim $80,000 will determine short-term structural strength or weakness; $XRP's ETF demand remains firm even as prices dip, warranting continued attention. Additionally, if Layer 1 tokens like $SUI and $APT see incremental capital inflows, it often signals a warming of risk appetite; meanwhile, highly elastic ecosystems like $AVAX and $NEAR may react quickly during sentiment recovery. On the DeFi front, we need to wait for leaders like $AAVE and $UNI to first show volume expansion to confirm a broader altcoin market kickoff. Regarding on-chain infrastructure, oracles and RWA narratives remain important windows to observe where funds are landing. 🪙 Risk reminder: Market volatility is intense, ETF flows do not necessarily dictate price movements, and the above content is purely objective.ADP only recorded 38,000, previous value 46,000, expected 48,000 The rate hike expectations were sharply cooled down, and the probability of a September rate hike began to loosen BTC and ETH sensed some breathing room, concerns about liquidity tightening have temporarily retreated If Friday's non-farm payrolls also disappoint, that will be the real trigger point The short-term rebound window has opened ADP gave the bulls a breather, but the real battle is still on Friday How far this breathing space can go depends on the data and market sentiment over the next two days First watch the strength of the rebound, then decide the position rhythm #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 ETH has fallen below 2400 again…… Being stuck in a position is indeed a bit uncomfortable. 🥲 Last night's ADP employment data was actually weaker than expected, with only 38,000 private sector jobs added in August. It seems the job market is gradually cooling down, but the market is now hesitant to be too optimistic—because inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate issues haven't been truly resolved yet. And there's the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. So now I actually feel that for ETH these days, it's not simply a matter of "will it rise or not," but rather waiting for a clearer macro direction. If employment continues to cool → expectations for rate cuts might return a bit. If employment strengthens again → pressure from the Fed will come back. As for ETH… I’m not really confident to guess now. I used to think it should hold around 2400, but it still got pushed down. The only thing to do now seems to be to watch if the price can stand back above that level.
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