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$BTC has always pulled back each time before, so be cautious this time.
First, let's explain what this chart is. The Mean Reversion Index averages nine fair value anchors together, including the 200-week moving average, Realized Price, Power Law, several on-chain VWAPs, and then places the current price into the historical distribution to tell you which percentile it is in.
In plain language, it shows how much more expensive this position is compared to historical levels.
In June, it was 15.8, deep green, meaning less than one-sixth of the time in history was it cheaper than that. Now it's 38.1, having climbed out of the green zone into the lower edge of the yellow zone.
In two months, it moved from deeply undervalued to slightly undervalued. The price hasn't gone crazy, but the cheapness has indeed been eaten up by more than half.
Here's the key point: looking back at the line below, in 2015, 2019, and 2023, every time it climbed out of the green zone, it would return once more to the green zone before truly trending.
This time, our speed of leaving the green zone is among the fastest, with basically no pullback in between. The gray area above is also surging; the price is running ahead of its own valuation system.
A 38th percentile is not expensive; this is not a signal to sell. But it is no longer a position where buying blindly is always right; the cheapness of the green zone is gone.
The 200WMA catch-up plan remains in place. If I get one chance to pull back to the green zone, that would be the most comfortable entry point for this cycle.
In the past, it always gave that chance; whether it will this time, I don't know.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Taking a look at OKX's September financial calendar, what really makes me cautious isn't any single data point, but several variables starting to cluster together.
September 4th is the US non-farm payrolls, September 16th is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the Apple event and CLARITY Act vote in between, and at the end of the month there's Korea Blockchain Week and the UK FCA's crypto regulatory progress.
Many people treat these as a bunch of "bullish/bearish" factors.
I think it's not that simple.
The biggest trading logic in September actually boils down to two things:
First, whether employment can continue to cool down.
Second, whether the Federal Reserve has enough reason to change its policy pace.
If employment weakens and inflation continues to fall, the market will be trading liquidity expectations, and BTC is more likely to follow a trend.
But if employment remains resilient and inflation refuses to come down, then trouble arises—the market will reprice "longer-lasting high interest rates."
At that point, so-called crypto positives might not be enough to offset macro pressure.
So I won't be guessing BTC's ups and downs every day in September.
I prefer to wait for the data to reveal the direction itself.
The real big moves often don't start the moment the news breaks, but only after the market realizes its expectations were wrong.
What will everyone be watching most in September: non-farm payrolls, FOMC, or the CLARITY Act?
$BTC $ETH $SOL The biggest variable affecting Bitcoin's price trend this week is Friday's non-farm payroll data.
Currently, the market's mainstream expectation for August's non-farm payroll additions is between 55,000 and 80,000. This number itself is not strong, and cooling signals can be seen from two key leading indicators:
ADP "small non-farm" is significantly below expectations: August ADP new jobs were only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000, marking the lowest since January this year. This casts a shadow over the non-farm data. July data was significantly revised downward: July non-farm payrolls were reduced by 23,000, plus a combined downward revision of 103,000 for May and June, indicating that the labor market weakness may be more severe than observed. If the non-farm data falls between 55,000 and 80,000, it basically meets the expectation of a "moderate cooling," and the Federal Reserve may view it as a signal of an orderly slowdown in the labor market, unlikely to significantly change the 58% probability of a rate hike in September.【Crypto Script】
#财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
I'm Script Bro. Dell's earnings report this time basically tells the market that the AI feast isn't over yet. Now it's shifting from Nvidia eating alone to a group at the table.
In the past, when hyping AI, everyone only saw Nvidia; GPUs were the "money printing machines." But having GPUs alone isn't enough—servers, storage, networks, and data centers all need to keep up, or else buying a bunch of chips just ends up gathering dust in warehouses.
Dell's performance exceeding expectations shows that enterprises are still pouring money into AI infrastructure. The market is no longer just about whether "AI is strong or not," but about who can truly make money from AI. After all, no matter how good the story sounds, in the end, it depends on whether the wallet can get fatter.
On the US stock side, the AI industry chain continues to be strong, supporting the Nasdaq and tech stocks. As long as funds are still willing to chase growth assets, market risk appetite won't be too bad.
The same logic applies to the crypto space. Strong US tech stocks indicate that funds are still willing to take risks, so risk assets like BTC can easily benefit from positive sentiment. But don't forget, the real big boss for BTC is still the Federal Reserve and US dollar liquidity. AI can only ignite the fire, not burn the entire bull market. If US stocks continue to be strong, funds may have the opportunity to continue spreading to assets like BTC.
Brothers, do you think the next wave of funds will keep revolving around AI, or is it time for BTC to perform? Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL Looking back at OKX's 2023 announcement about $CORE: "$CORE is now listed on OKX, deposits are open, and spot trading will begin once liquidity requirements are met." Interestingly, when this is viewed alongside two earlier official CoreDAO messages: in 2022, CoreDAO emphasized a hard supply cap of 2.1 billion tokens plus a transaction burn mechanism; in 2023, CoreDAO highlighted becoming an early $CORE staker; and also in 2023, $CORE started entering mainstream trading infrastructure like OKX.
This actually corresponds to a very clear development path: supply rules → network participation → market liquidity.
But looking back today, what truly deserves study is no longer "which exchange listed it back then," but whether these early designs have ultimately crystallized into long-term value. Because: exchanges solve liquidity; staking solves network participation and security; hard supply solves monetary policy. And what ultimately determines $CORE's long-term value is whether Core can continuously create real on-chain demand and truly connect BTC, BTCfi, users, capital, and infrastructure.
From 2022 to 2023, and now to today, time has given Core a sufficiently long validation period. The real test has never been about having a story, but about what infrastructure remains once the story fades.The overall crypto asset market is under pressure, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy expectations, with risk asset valuations continuously suppressed by macroeconomic factors.
1. Hawkish tone at Jackson Hole breaks rate cut expectations
At the Jackson Hole symposium, Waller firmly upheld the 2% inflation target, rejected easing commitments, and stated that until inflation shows a definite decline, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. This directly reversed previous market easing expectations. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the dollar index rebounds, and high-volatility risk asset valuations are under pressure, with ETH and BTC entering a high-level correction phase.
The Fed's policy has shifted to "data-dependent," abandoning fixed forward guidance. Every upcoming CPI, PCE, and non-farm payroll report will amplify market volatility, increasing the frequency of market fluctuations and uncertainty.
2. Persistent inflation stickiness makes the September rate meeting a key risk point
Earlier PCE data exceeded market expectations, with inflation retreating less than anticipated.
The market is beginning to reprice the likelihood of a rate hike in September, and the prolonged high interest rate environment continues to suppress high-valuation risk assets like ETH. As long as inflation does not show a clear downward trend, a liquidity easing market is unlikely to return in the short term.
3. Sustained pressure from U.S. Treasuries and the dollar
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, representing high risk-free returns, causing capital to flow out of crypto markets and high-risk tech assets into Treasury safe havens.
During the ongoing dollar rebound cycle, crypto assets priced in dollars naturally face downward valuation pressure. In a strengthening dollar phase, ETH is unlikely to experience an independent, sustained major rally. ⚠️Personal market review, for communication only, does not constitute any investment advice
Recently, gold has experienced a typical rollercoaster of a sharp rise followed by a steep fall and an oversold recovery.
In late August, after gold prices surged and faced resistance, influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance and rising US Treasury yields, bulls collectively took profits, leading to a rapid and deep pullback in gold prices. After the market sentiment was fully digested, combined with a weakening dollar and bottom-fishing capital entering, gold has now entered a technical rebound and recovery phase, overall maintaining a wide-range high-level oscillation pattern.
Short-term core logic: Data determines direction, oscillation is the main theme
The biggest uncertainty in the current market is all focused on this week's non-farm payroll data.
- If employment data is strong and wages warm up, the high interest rate expectation will heat up again, and the gold rebound will most likely end, returning to a pressured retracement mode with support levels to be repeatedly tested.
- If employment data cools down, rate hike expectations fall, and US Treasury yields decline, gold prices will continue to rebound, further repairing previous losses.
All short-term rebounds are defined as oversold recoveries, not the start of a new unilateral bull market. There is obvious divergence at high levels, heavy resistance above, with repeated shakeouts and range fluctuations being the main theme in early September. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Medium to long-term core logic: Solid bottom support, the major trend has not reversed
Short-term interest rate expectation disturbances will only change gold's rhythm, not the medium to long-term upward logic…The day before yesterday I gave up, yesterday I doubled back to take it all back
9.2 $BTC Bitcoin/$ETH Ethereum battle summary:
Day before yesterday's profit gave back: -8,368U
Yesterday's secured profit: +27,729U
Yesterday morning, one trade recovered all losses.
Account returned to positive growth.
It's not mysticism, it's probability.
There is no myth in trading.
Don't panic when losing, don't get carried away when winning.
Yesterday's high short and low long trades, each one was an upward curve in the "small win, big win" structure.
The market is indeed exhausting, waves of oscillation and shakeouts one after another.
But as long as the volatility is within a controllable range, you can use high-frequency fine-tuning + precise sniping to snatch profits back bite by bite.
There is no holy grail in trading, only a continuously iterated system.
When losing money, the system is being tested.
When making money, the system is awarding scholarships.
Kunren, steady trading
Not about never losing, but about being able to afford losses, recover profits, and sleep well
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $FIL 0.7675 long position, 50x leverage, floating profit of 280 points, still holding.
The logic behind this rally is very strong: FIL has risen nearly 20% this week, shorts have been liquidated for 1.5 million USDT, and open interest has surged to around 200 million. Narratively, Filecoin is packaging itself as AI infrastructure—Amazon plans to invest 220 billion USD this year in AI hardware, storage chip prices have increased 235% in a year, and Filecoin says, "My storage has long been built, no need to wait."
Technically, it has already risen above the 100-day moving average, daily chart is bullish, 0.86 is the next key resistance. Breaking through could target 0.90-1.00, failure to hold might lead to a retest of 0.76-0.77.
But there is a risk: RSI has surged above 80 into overbought territory, some traders are already locking in profits and exiting. Open interest has halved from the 450 million peak, indicating less aggressive chasing of highs.
My judgment: the direction is correct, short-term overbought may cause a shakeout. Move stop loss up to around 0.76 to lock in profits, and see if it can push to 0.86.
"Position Review"CZ tweeted: Hot money is withdrawing from the AI sector and flowing back into cryptocurrency. This judgment aligns with the capital flow of ETH—ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $17.91 million today, attracting $520 million over 7 days, with no sign of stopping.
But on the BTC side, Tony still tells the truth: today the ETF had a single-day net outflow of -$241 million, the first negative transfer in several days. This means $BTC spot demand is now "absolutely scarce"; without spot demand, the bull market cannot continue. (Figures 1, 2)
#BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test
$ETH is completely not following this script.
Since this rebound broke through the $2256 cumulative address realized price, the price has not fallen back, which will be a strong support. (Figure 3)
Additionally, with the CLARITY Act expected to pass the Senate on September 15, once regulatory clarity is established, the direction of capital flow is already written in the ETF flows.
👉 BTC lacks spot, ETH attracts capital, the E/B exchange rate continues to rise. How do you see this divergence? Are you still betting on BTC or switching to ETH?
#FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 $ZEC has surged too fiercely this round; the real test is just beginning.
Zcash has been strengthening recently, once reaching around $860 in late August, hitting a multi-year high. Today, ZEC remains above $800, with the latest price around $806 and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $500 million.
This rally itself is already very strong. The privacy sector is heating up again, coupled with capital expectations brought by spot ETFs, making ZEC a very eye-catching token in the recent altcoin market.
At the same time, U.S. employment data is starting to cool down.
In August, ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000 and also below the revised 46,000 in July. The real non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday.
What does this mean for ZEC?
If Friday's non-farm payrolls continue to fall short of expectations, the market will bet again on a Federal Reserve rate cut, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline, potentially further improving the funding environment for high-volatility assets.
For ZEC, which has already shown an independent trend, the elasticity might be greater than that of ordinary altcoins.
But caution is needed here.
ZEC has recently surged from below $500 to above $800, an extremely exaggerated increase, with many short-term profit takers as well. Whether it can hold around $800 now is more important than chasing further gains.
If the non-farm data cooperates and ZEC can firmly stand in the $830–$850 range again, the next step will be to watch for a breakthrough of the previous high. #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday Nonfarm payrolls themselves won't directly change Ethereum's fundamentals; the core impact is on market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rates. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate accordingly, driving capital flows in and out of risk assets. Ethereum is more elastic than Bitcoin, often experiencing more intense price swings. 1. Nonfarm payrolls significantly better than expected (hot employment) The market will think high interest rates must be sustained longer, delaying rate cuts. The dollar strengthens, risk assets are sold off, and Ethereum faces downward pressure. The 2350-2420 support level is easily broken, short-term declines often exceed Bitcoin's, and contract liquidations from price spikes increase. 2. Nonfarm payrolls significantly worse than expected (weak employment) The market bets on earlier Fed rate cuts, liquidity easing expectations rise, and capital is willing to rush into risk assets. Ethereum's rebound is more explosive and, under the same conditions, tends to rise more sharply than Bitcoin. 3. Nonfarm payrolls roughly as expected, neither hot nor cold This won't change the big picture; the market will likely continue to oscillate in place, with ongoing choppy trading sweeping stop losses back and forth, extending the current tug-of-war situation. 4. Nonfarm payrolls extremely bad, recession panic This is a special case; even if rate cut expectations rise, widespread market panic selling occurs, and all risk assets flee together. Ethereum $ETH will still plunge significantly, and rate cut expectations won't save the short-term market. 5. Common deceptive moves on nonfarm payrolls night When data is released, there are often fake moves first—either a spike up then reversal, or a drop then a pullback. Ethereum's volatility is large, moving hundreds of dollars up or down within minutes, sweeping stop losses on both long and short sides.US East 9-2 Fund Details (Unit: Million USD)
BTC Spot ETF
IBIT (BlackRock) -201.2
FBTC (Fidelity) -43.7
BITB (Bitwise) +8.4
Other targets showed slight fluctuations
BTC Total: -236.5
ETH Spot ETF
ETHA (BlackRock) +11.2
FETH (Fidelity) +4.8
ETHE (Grayscale) -5.0
ETH Total: +10.95
Market Interpretation
On 9-2, BTC ETF saw a significant reversal, shifting from continuous inflows to large net outflows, marking the largest single-day redemption since late July. Almost all outflows came from BlackRock's IBIT, representing concentrated selling by a leading institution, while other funds diverged, indicating no market-wide panic. ETH showed strong resilience, achieving 12 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with funds rotating from BTC to ETH and SOL.
The timing coincides exactly with the outbreak of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Upon the news, institutions took preemptive risk-averse actions, with ETF funds and market prices weakening in sync. The previous divergence of "fund inflows with price decline" disappeared, signaling resonance. #FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm #BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The S&P 500 and MSCI are now facing a dilemma: Is a company like MicroStrategy considered a normal company?
If you say it’s a tech company, 77% of its assets are Bitcoin, and the software business revenue is negligible compared to Bitcoin. If you say it’s a fund, it’s listed on Nasdaq, has employees, business operations, and financial reports.
MicroStrategy currently holds over 840,000 BTC, valued at $23.9 billion. Market cap, liquidity, and profitability all meet the hard criteria, yet the S&P 500 repeatedly excludes it. MSCI is even stricter, redefining the boundary between "operating companies" and "investment vehicles," kicking out those with less than 50% operating assets.
If it really gets kicked out, the consequences are severe, with passive fund outflows possibly reaching $2.8 billion to $11.6 billion. Japanese Bitcoin treasury companies like Metaplanet are also on the review list.
Simply put, traditional financial rules can’t keep up with the pace of crypto innovation. It was unimaginable before for a listed company to treat Bitcoin as a primary asset, but MicroStrategy has done it, while index rules have yet to catch up.
Next, it depends on MSCI’s decision, which could determine the direction of the entire crypto treasury sector. $BTC The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds touched 3.01% on September 1st — the sharpest move since September 1996. The global chessboard seemed to have only toppled a single pawn, but the tremor traced by $xIWM on the K-line revealed this was the starting point of a "king's wing full assault."
I have spent my life calculating piece movements on the board, never startled by the loss of a single pawn. But when Japan's 30-year government bond yield broke 4.18%, approaching historic highs, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded simultaneously, and the long ends of UK and German bonds clustered at multi-year highs, my intuition told me: this is not just a city’s alarm, but the frontal engagement of the central pawn formation on the entire board. Long-term bond yields worldwide rising almost simultaneously means all players are re-confirming the "inflation—deficit—supply" central line from the same opening book. So-called risk assets and safe-haven assets in this scenario are merely pieces swept away by the same midgame flood.
In this game, the real hidden line is the yen arbitrageurs. For decades, low-yield yen has been the smoothest rear-wing pawn in the international chess game. Institutions borrow cheap yen and deploy it to every corner of the world to buy stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin. Now that Japan’s 10-year yield has risen above 3%, this rear-wing pawn has undergone a complete identity reversal — it no longer supports your offense but instead stands behind you demanding the entire pawn line to retreat immediately. This is why the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, Bitcoin, and stocks all tremble in sync: it’s not that each has malfunctioned individually, but that all positions relying on yen financing are being forced to decompress. And $xIWM is simply the square on this retreat line that most truthfully reflects the tension of the pieces.
If you only focus on the changes in one square of the board, you will never understand the game. $xIWM is a keenly perceptive observation post, but the real signal source is not in the K-line itself, but in the interest rate curve of the Tokyo market thousands of kilometers away. Every casual word from the Bank of Japan is like a player lightly tapping the clock after deep thought; once rate hike expectations heat up, it means the player is pushing the central pawn further forward, placing global risk assets under the crosshairs of a double strike. Those overvalued growth stocks, funds passively buying gold, and wavering Bitcoin holdings will become the pieces forced to be exchanged or abandoned after that central pawn advance. You cannot escape because the coordinates of the entire board have been rearranged.
The coldest moment in chess is not when the opponent checks the king, but when you suddenly realize all your pieces are protecting the king, yet none can truly attack. The repricing of Japan’s long-term bond yields is that cold bell. When the 3.01% figure is fixed, global capital has no choice but to withdraw from old battles and return to new defensive lines. So-called safe havens never exist in isolation; so-called independent markets are just those who have yet to realize they also sit at the center of the board. Japan’s 3.01% is not a random loophole; it is a sequence long calculated in the chess manual. Players who have not yet grasped the significance of this move have already been marked in the game plan as paying the price of exchange. #jgb10ytops3%Friday night at 8:30, $BTC is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to save it, but hopefully it won't get blindsided!
Sigh, I bought Bitcoin, but in the end, I still have to study whether Americans have found jobs.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: this Friday's non-farm payrolls
At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, September 4th, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. In the last report, July employment decreased by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. So even if the new numbers look good this time, we have to check if the previous values have continued to shrink.
Honestly, there's a rather awkward expectation in the crypto world right now: hoping US employment is a bit weak so the Fed has less reason to raise rates, but not so bad that it looks terrible.
If it's a little weak, the market might breathe a sigh of relief; but if employment clearly worsens and the unemployment rate jumps, funds might sell crypto to avoid risk. Then rushing in shouting "good data" might not actually catch a rally.
I tend to think a mild cooling off and wages no longer accelerating is the combination that feels better for BTC. Celebrating just because new jobs are below expectations can easily overlook wages. If wages are still accelerating, the inflation pressure won't ease. The curtain wall glass hasn't been fully installed yet, but the tower crane lights are already flickering at the stock market close—AVGO is down, SNOW is flashing up. This isn't a shift in market direction; it's clearly different construction phases of the same blueprint reaching their respective structural inspection days.
Last night I was watching these two cases like monitoring the general contractor's progress chart for a super high-rise building I’m managing. Dell raised its full-year AI server forecast, which basically means the survey report got thicker, and the volume of foundation pit support and pile foundation work has been clearly revised upward. This indicates the underground part hasn't reached the closing stage yet, and the subsequent concrete demand is far from finished. Broadcom’s quarterly report shows $16.7 billion in AI chip revenue, equivalent to the actual steel content in load-bearing walls exceeding design values, but the Q4 guidance is slightly lower—anyone who's done construction knows that doesn't mean the building is collapsing; it means the formwork crew is waiting for the next batch of embedded beam components to arrive, causing a three-day misalignment in the node schedule. The market dropped six points in seconds, like a supervisor spotting a non-load-bearing crack on the edge of a column and panicking first.
What really made the chief engineer take off his hard hat was Snowflake: Q2 product revenue rose 37%, and CoCo accounts climbed to 9,100. In construction terms, this is like the building automation system for the entire building—it’s no longer just selling glass curtain walls and elevators, but modularizing every floor’s HVAC, power, fire protection, and security systems, then telling you the full-year guidance and profit line are still being raised. This is what we often call “the entire building’s intelligent joint debugging completed ahead of schedule, and the model floor lease filing approved.” AI demand is spreading from chips and networks to data clouds and software; in my terminology, the solution is spreading from the structural system to the MEP systems and refined delivery. Structural engineers are naturally happy, but what really makes the owner happily pay the final installment is that intelligent system that can make the whole building operate automatically.
But the market didn’t applaud for long this time. It was too impatient, like the client seeing the topping-out photo and immediately demanding to change the refined delivery date—faster execution, faster results, just like that classic nonsense at the design handover meeting: "Why didn’t your drawings clearly specify the heating and cooling source switch for the transition season?" Of course, the drawings did specify it, just not at the speed he flipped through them.
From my 20 years of industry insight, the current pricing on the XIREN line is basically welding the "expected topping date" and "actual pouring progress" onto one K-line chart. AVGODips isn’t a structural regression; it’s a short-term misreading caused by the scheduling adjustments of the ventilation shaft, elevator shaft, and core tube; SNOWPops is just the exterior decorative lighting being turned on early, which is visually striking but doesn’t represent structural load or inter-story drift angles.
If I had to say one deeper thing: the market always loves to stand downstairs and see whose lights come on first—but those of us who read blueprints know that the first lights on are often temporary iodine-tungsten lamps pulled by the construction team. #AVGODipsSNOWPops 这几天AI股跌得贼狠，纳指、标普也一起往下走。 我就纳闷了，美国和伊朗打仗，跟我手里的$SKHY 有什么关系？ 捋一遍就明白了 美伊冲突升级 → 油价上涨 → 市场担心通胀 → 市场开始押注美联储可能加息 → 美债价格下跌、收益率上涨→科技股估值被压 → 纳指和标普下跌。 美伊打仗影响油价就不说了，油价上涨最麻烦的地方，是它会往整个经济里面传。运输要油，生产要油，化工也要油，油涨了，平摊到消费者身上，物价就贵了，物价贵就通胀了，一旦通胀了，美联储就出来了，这孙子是干嘛的？这孙子是专门控制通胀的，他发现通胀的可能就会干一个特别孙子的事，就是加息，不是给老百姓存款加息，是给贷款加息，让企业少贷款少花钱，大家都不花钱了，物价就降低了，通胀就能控制住了。 现在大家都在猜：如果真加息了，那么加息以后新发行的国债可能给更高利息。 现在手里这些低利息的旧债就没人愿意留着了，都给丫卖了，这就造成美债价格下跌了，价格跌了，利率不变，就=收益率上涨了 那为什么美联储还没加息呢，股票先跌了？这个其实也不难理解，股票从来不是等新闻公布以后才开始行动。 假设一个月前，大家觉得美联储9月加息概率只有20%。突然因BTC ETF flipped from +217 million to -35.3 million in one day, but I first look at whether the price has dropped
I checked the latest capital flow: on 8/31, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about 217 million USD, but on 9/1 it turned into a net outflow of about 35.3 million. The problem is, BTC didn’t crash directly because of this and is still hovering around 77,000.
This is more worth studying than just looking at the ETF alone: if institutional buying is fluctuating but the price can still hold, it means there might be other spot demand in the market absorbing it; conversely, if the ETF turns positive again but BTC still can’t break above 80,000, it’s more like the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully digested.
Also, US Treasury yields remain high, and the macro environment hasn’t truly eased.
My trading direction is very short-term: if it holds around 76,500, I won’t chase shorts; if it stabilizes above 79,500, I’ll increase long exposure; if it breaks below 75,000, I’ll keep waiting.
If the ETF outflows again but BTC just won’t drop, would you see it as truly strong, or just delayed selling pressure?On September 3rd, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 37.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 62.3%.
So what does a rate hike really mean for $SNDK?
I believe the short-term outlook is definitely bearish. The reason is simple: a rate hike means an increase in the risk-free rate, and high-valuation tech stocks will be the first to face valuation compression.
SanDisk has already risen significantly this year, and the market's expectations for AI storage are very high. Once capital starts to seek safety, highly volatile stocks like SNDK are very likely to be hit first.
But!
SanDisk's fundamentals are indeed very strong now. The company's latest financial report shows that revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, with the data center business growing 437% year-over-year.
So I tend to think: the rate hike hits valuations, but not necessarily the fundamentals.
If September's hike is only 25 basis points and the market has already priced it in, then after the bearish news settles, there might even be a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" effect.
However, if the rate hike is accompanied by a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, then be mentally prepared for SNDK to pull back to around $1500 or even $1400 in the short term.
So looking at SanDisk now, be cautious of short-term pullbacks, but the mid-to-long-term outlook still depends on AI + storage demand!
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Today, Arthur Hayes published an article.
He said ETH will reach $10,000 by the end of the year, ENA will hit $0.5, and ETHFI will reach $2.
Many people's first reaction to such calls is — "Here we go again, the big mouth is bragging."
But this time it's different.
Because before he said these things, what he wrote months ago is being validated by the market one by one.
Do you remember what Hayes said a few months ago?
He said: France is the weakest link in the Eurozone. With high fiscal deficits, increasing government debt, and heavy reliance on foreign capital — the French banking and government bond markets will face sustained pressure from capital outflows.
How many people ignored this back then?
And today?
According to the latest data from the pan-European exchange, as of September 2, the yield on French 10-year government bonds has reached 4.17%, approaching the peak in November 2008.
On September 1, it even briefly touched 4.21%, higher than Greece's 4.04%.
A G7 country's borrowing cost is more expensive than the main player in the Eurozone debt crisis.
France's public debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. The three major French bank stocks plunged more than 4% in a single day at the end of August.
Everything Hayes said is happening.
Now look at the second judgment.
Hayes' logic chain at the time was:
EURJPY falls → Yen strengthens → Asian funds withdraw from European assets → French banks reduce Repo financing → US Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed forced to expand RMP operations → Fed balance sheet expands → Crypto market takes off.
Many thought the chain was too long, "How could every step work out?"
And now?
EURJPY is currently trading around 185.50. French bank stocks have already started to plunge.
The most critical part — the US Treasury has already taken action.
On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buyback operations, increasing from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
The market directly interpreted this as "mini quantitative easing."
Hayes said the "liquidity valve is being turned on," and it is indeed being turned.
Then the third — and the harshest — judgment.
Hayes said: The Fed's balance sheet expansion speed may accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Many see this number and think, "Only $1 billion, what's the big deal?"
But you need to know the background.
The Fed's RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) plan from December 2025 to March 2026 has a monthly scale of $40 billion; in April it drops to $25 billion; from May to July it drops to $10 billion; and in August it was directly paused to zero.
From $40 billion to zero, this is a cliff-like tightening.
What Hayes predicts is — from zero back up to $10 billion per month.
This is not about incremental change, it's a complete reversal in direction.
Wall Street sees it the same way. TD Securities expects a possible recovery to about $10 billion per month for the remainder of 2026.
The direction is set — liquidity is shifting from "tightening" to "easing."
So what is Hayes himself doing?
All talk and no action is just hot air. But Hayes is not like that.
On August 25, he publicly announced: Maelstrom Fund's risk exposure has reached its limit, with core holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena (ENA), and Ether.fi (ETHFI).
Today he reiterated: Bitcoin is the structural long ballast, and the speculative short-term bets by the end of 2026 are — ETH target price $10,000, ENA target price $0.5, ETHFI target price $2.
Then he added — "Where did my ZEC go?"
A joke, but the signal is clear: he has liquidated ZEC and is fully betting on the ETH ecosystem.
By the way, he liquidated ZEC because of the Orchard pool vulnerability in June — when the underlying logic of the narrative is broken, he runs faster than anyone.
This man is not a die-hard bull. He is logic-driven. When logic changes, positions change. When logic holds, he bets all in.
Of course, Hayes is not a god.
He called Bitcoin at $250,000 in 2025, which didn’t happen. He himself admits "most price predictions are inaccurate."
He once lost about $2.04 million on ETH. No one is 100% right.
But the issue is not whether he is "right or wrong."
The issue is — his macro analysis framework is being validated step by step by the market.
French government bond yield at 4.17% — validated.
EURJPY hovering around 185 — validated.
US Treasury expanding buybacks — validated.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion — Wall Street expects the same.
When an analyst's three or four key judgments are consecutively proven right by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
you don't have to follow blindly. But you should at least take a serious look.
What are 99% of KOLs in the market doing?
They cheer when prices rise, scream crash when prices fall.
Today they hype project A, tomorrow project B.
No framework, no logic, just emotions.
And what is Hayes doing?
He watches French government bond yields, EURJPY exchange rate, Fed's RMP operations, and US Treasury's buyback plans.
He sees what others don't, then puts his positions on the line.
I don't blindly follow anyone.
But when someone's macro framework is validated step by step by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
it's at least worth spending 30 minutes to read his article.
Not because he called ETH at $10,000.
But because the logic chain he used to derive $10,000 is becoming reality step by step.
French government bonds at 4.17%.
EURJPY 185.
US Treasury buybacks doubled.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion.
Four clues point to the same direction.
Do you think this is a coincidence, or someone has already seen the game clearly in advance?
$BTC $ETH $ETHFI Historical Pattern: The "Seasonal Curse" of September
September has historically been the worst-performing month for the US stock market. Since 1971, the Nasdaq Composite Index has averaged a return of -0.9% in September; the S&P 500 Index has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September, with positive returns recorded only 45% of the time; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a decline of 0.8% in September since 1950.
Although the Nasdaq has ended higher in 52% of Septembers, the long-term average return remains negative. This "September Effect" mainly stems from: fund managers returning after Labor Day, adjusting holdings before the fourth quarter, trimming winners or selling losers; some funds' fiscal years ending in September or October, creating a tax-loss harvesting window. $QQQ #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 First, about my position: I am currently still trading swing shorts!
Core macro contradiction in the crypto market: High oil prices drive inflation concerns → US Treasury yields remain elevated → Financial conditions tighten; meanwhile, a slight decline in Japanese yields signals marginal liquidity improvement. The world is caught in a tug-of-war between "inflation pressure vs liquidity easing."
Key drivers impacting crypto:
1. High US Treasury yields remain the biggest suppressing factor. Elevated yields increase funding costs and reduce the appeal of risk assets. If yields continue to rise, BTC/ETH will face pressure; if they sustain a decline, it will support a rebound.
2. High oil prices reinforce the inflation narrative, indirectly supporting rate hike expectations, bearish for crypto. Attention should be paid to whether the Middle East situation escalates further.
3. Decline in Japanese government bond yields provides a mild positive signal, helping to ease yen carry trade pressure and improve global risk appetite, but the magnitude is limited and unlikely to reverse the situation alone.
4. ETF fund flows: Recently, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows, indicating institutional caution in the short term; ETH is relatively better. Fund flows are key to judging support strength.
5. Seasonality and technicals: Historically, September is weak for crypto. BTC key support is at $76,500–77,000, resistance at $78,000–80,000; ETH support at $2,350–2,400, resistance near $2,500.
Subsequent scenarios:
1. High-level consolidation/slight pullback scenario (main short-term scenario, probability about 45–50%)
Oil prices remain high, US Treasury yields do not significantly decline:
• BTC oscillates repeatedly between $76,000–79,000, possibly testing $76,500–77,000 support.
• ETH consolidates between $2,350–2,500.
2. Stabilization and rebound scenario (probability about 30–35%)
US Treasury yields continue to fall + Japanese yields keep declining + ETFs return to net inflows + oil price rise slows:
• BTC retests $80,000.
• ETH rises to $2,500–2,600.
3. Deep correction scenario (probability about 15–20%)
Escalation of US-Iran conflict, sharp oil price surge, US Treasury yields hit new highs, ETFs continue outflows:
• BTC drops to $75,000 or lower.
• ETH tests $2,300–2,350.
Comprehensive judgment:
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a tug-of-war between macro pressures (high oil prices + US Treasury yields) and marginal easing signals (declining Japanese yields, some cooling in US yields). In the short term, they are more likely to maintain high-level consolidation or slight dips to digest leverage, profit-taking, and seasonal pressures.
The mid-term structure is not yet fully broken—the previous breakthrough of key moving averages and institutional allocation logic still hold. If a pullback to key support is followed by stabilization signals (especially ETF net inflows resuming + US Treasury yields peaking), there is still a chance to rise again. The real directional choice depends on whether US Treasury yields can sustain a decline, whether oil prices cool down, and whether ETF funds return.
Observation priorities:
1. US Treasury yield trends
2. Daily spot ETF fund flows
3. Oil prices and Middle East situation
4. Effectiveness of BTC $77,000 and $76,500 supports Geopolitical risk premium is heating up, but the September rate cut has not been overturned yet
$BTC is oscillating within a 77,000 range, will it rise or continue to fall? Waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls
Within a week, BTC has retraced from 81,000 down by 5.1%, profit-taking has been digested.
Funding signals are contradictory, but one thing is certain: IBIT accounts for over 80% of BTC ETF net inflows, indicating a high concentration of institutions, which means any macro shock will be amplified. Tonight, we need to see how the US stock market opens.
My thinking: If the current price stays still, the 75,500-76,000 range is a buying window reserved for the brave. The bears should wait to act until after breaking below 74,500. Bulls should not chase above 78,000; a breakout to 80,000 is not expected this week.Schrödinger's Cat: The Duality of Bitcoin
Bitcoin possesses dual attributes, with both existing simultaneously. In different macro environments, different attributes dominate the market.
80% | The Tech Stock Side (Risk Asset Attribute)
• Rises when market liquidity is loose
• Price trends move in tandem with the S&P 500
• Considered a high-beta risk asset
Most of the time, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset, following global stock markets and changes in dollar liquidity.
20% | The Digital Gold Side (Scarce Inflation-Resistant Attribute)
• Rises when the market fears currency devaluation
• Price trends move in tandem with gold
• A scarce asset outside the existing financial system
Usually, only during fears of monetary credit or fiat currency devaluation does the digital gold attribute take the lead.
With the high scale of U.S. debt and continuous dollar oversupply, Bitcoin's digital gold attribute is gradually strengthening. Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million, permanently limited. Some market views believe it may gradually become a store-of-value asset in the future, but this attribute has not been fully validated yet, and the dual attributes will continue to alternate. #FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
Before the FOMC on September 16, the final major employment data—U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls—will drop sharply at 8:30 PM this Friday.
July's figure was -23,000 (a surprise), this time Bloomberg consensus expects +55,000, Reuters +58,000, with the unemployment rate stuck at 4.1%.
Don't just look at the total number; three details are the real signals:
How many jobs were added in the private sector
Whether hourly wages accelerated month-over-month
Whether June and July figures will be revised down further
The transmission to the crypto space is simple:
Nonfarm <30,000 + unemployment rate breaks 4.2% → expectations of rate cuts/pauses in hikes return → BTC absorbs liquidity, first a spike then a pullback, ETH and SOL show greater elasticity
Around 50,000 meets expectations → market confused and volatile, waiting for the September 11 CPI second confirmation
🦅 >80,000 and hourly wages strengthen → Hawkish signals confirmed, September rate hike probability jumps → USD and U.S. Treasury yields both rise, BTC dips first as a salute, contracts market undergoes a shakeout
My personal rhythm:
Don't chase naked before 4 PM Friday, set stop losses outside obvious highs and lows;
After data release, watch USD index + 2-year Treasury yields for aligned trades, more reliable than focusing on a single BTC spike;
If data is truly a cold surprise weak, don't chase impulsively, wait for a pullback to the 15-minute EMA to stabilize before acting—false breakouts on nonfarm nights are especially common this year.
This round is not "Nonfarm decides FOMC," but a triple verdict of Nonfarm + CPI + Waller's speech.
But this Friday's shot will decide whether you get in early or get stopped out by a spike.Conclusion first: The low interest rate environment basically has no impact on the short-term pricing of $BTC, so don't take it as a reason for funds to move. Looking at the market: current price is 77,249, up only 0.37% in 24 hours, with a volatility of 2.1%, and a trading volume of 11 billion USD, indicating narrow fluctuations with no signs of incremental funds. Contract open interest is 8.35 billion USD, leverage has not expanded; the retail long-short account ratio dropped from 1.2676 to 1.2148, and the large account position ratio fell from 2.0162 to 1.9774, both sides are simultaneously reducing exposure. Funding rates are 0.0080%, 0.0038%, and 0.0073%, with longs still paying slightly, which is neutral and does not constitute a squeeze. My judgment: short-term will continue to oscillate weakly; direction depends on an increase in trading volume to be meaningful. Conditions for bullish reversal: trading volume significantly increases and holds above 77,767.8, while the large account position ratio rebounds. Conditions for bearish reversal: breaks below 76,151.9 and funding rates turn negative. The low interest rate on the cash side changes the flow of funds over several years, not these few candlesticks. Bitcoin rose 25% in August, marking the strongest August in 17 years 🔥
But brothers, don't just focus on the peak; the real tough battle is just beginning — if the $81,000 barrier can't be broken, everything is just talk on paper.
First, the reasons for the rise, just a few things:
💰 The U.S. Treasury quietly eased liquidity, doubling the scale of long-term bond repos, the market instantly understood this as a disguised money printing signal, and devaluation trades resumed.
💥 $1.4 billion short positions were liquidated, ETFs attracted $3.05 billion in one month (the strongest since last October), shorts and cash buyers together fueled the rally.
Current situation:
All moving averages are holding steady, BTC is now nearly 50% above the "cost line," looking quite strong.
But the $81,000-$82,000 range is a familiar resistance — it has been rejected several times this year, each time pushing the price back near $58,000, and the cost line for major ETF holders is also stuck here. RSI has surged to 80, indicating this rally might be a bit overheated; chasing highs now is like standing on a mountain top catching flying knives.
Focus on these key points in September:
1️⃣ Can $76,000-$78,000 hold (this is the new floor)?
2️⃣ Will ETFs keep buying, or will profit-taking start?
3️⃣ Will the Fed hike rates in September and stir things up?
4️⃣ The CLARITY Act vote (market only gives a 13% chance of passing, but if it does, it’s like a windfall from the sky).
In plain words:
As long as the $76k-$78k line holds, a pullback = a buying opportunity, not a signal to run. Once it breaks above $82k, $85k and the old highs will come into play immediately. #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
The August nonfarm payroll report will be released this Friday. This is the last major employment data before the September FOMC meeting, and it will directly rewrite the market's pricing of Federal Reserve interest rates. $BTC, gold $XAU, and U.S. stocks will all experience significant volatility.
After the hawkish signal from the Jackson Hole speech, the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen sharply. The quality of this nonfarm payroll report will determine the main logic of the subsequent market trend. A simple breakdown of three scenarios:
Nonfarm significantly below expectations: employment cools down, rate hike expectations fall, U.S. Treasury yields decline, benefiting BTC and gold, and risk assets get a recovery window.
Data meets expectations: bulls and bears maintain status quo, the market continues to oscillate within a range, waiting for the final outcome of the FOMC meeting.
Nonfarm significantly exceeds expectations: strong employment resilience, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, cryptocurrencies come under pressure, likely triggering a rapid sell-off.
Personal view: do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance at this stage.
Historically, nonfarm payrolls often show "good data first pumps then dumps; bad data first dumps then pumps" deceptive moves. Avoid placing high-leverage directional bets on contracts ahead of time.
Spot positions can keep a basic base holding; contracts should prioritize reducing positions and lowering leverage to avoid slippage risks around the data release.
Key points to watch later: not only the number of new jobs but also the unemployment rate and wage growth are crucial. The three together form a complete signal. After the data release, follow the market signals rather than trying to predict in advance, which is far more reliable.Short $ZEC at the current price? Let me speak plainly.
$ZEC is now around eight to nine hundred dollars, which looks quite expensive, but in my eyes, it's just an old privacy coin veteran with fatal old wounds that could collapse at any time. Let's start with the harshest point:
The Orchard pool vulnerability exposed in June 2026 was a disaster-level issue. A fatal bug that allowed unlimited minting and was undetectable lay dormant in the system for a full four years. It was only discovered with the help of AI. As a result, the price was halved, Arthur Hayes completely liquidated and fled, even shouting "Holy Trinity is dead." Although it has been fixed now, trust has been shattered. The core selling point of privacy coins is "trustworthy privacy," but if they can't even prove whether their supply can be secretly printed, what's the point?
At this price level, I personally think the logic for shorting is straightforward:
After a previous surge to a high, trust is damaged and not fully restored, regulatory clouds linger, and real demand doesn't keep up with the price. Once market risk appetite drops again or some negative news emerges, there's significant room for a pullback. Brothers, this pullback in Bitcoin is quite deep. The latest BTC price is around $77,000-$77,300, down more than 4,000 points from the August 28 high of 81,520. It has been declining steadily for several days as the market digests the pressure from the September rate hike expectations soaring from 35% to over 65%. ETH has weakened in sync to around $2,380. Meanwhile, gold is trading at about $4,389/oz during the same period, rising 1.39% instead of falling. One is falling, the other rising—where is the so-called "digital gold"? The correlation is strengthening, but the directions are starting to diverge. Data from September 2 shows Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped sharply from 60% to about 33%. As of September 1, the 30-day correlation even reached 0.8, a historic high. Grayscale research points out this is a structural behavioral shift, not statistical noise. The correlation has surged from near zero at the start of the year to the highest ever, indicating the logic is indeed changing—institutions are reclassifying Bitcoin from a "high beta tech stock" to a "hedge basket against inflation and fiscal uncertainty." With U.S. federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and an annual fiscal deficit of about $1.9 trillion—when government spending far exceeds revenue, investors start seeking assets that cannot be printed. Bitcoin, with its hard cap of 21 million coins, is being viewed by institutions as a "digital equivalent" and placed in the same basket as gold. But high correlation does not mean they rise and fall together, nor with the same magnitude. This pullback precisely exposes the core contradiction: Bitcoin and goldStop watching MACD: Arthur Hayes' "Polaris" indicator works better than any technical analysis
While you stare at candlesticks drawing gates, counting waves, watching golden and death crosses every day, the real money is watching a currency pair you've never paid attention to.
Euro against Japanese Yen. EURJPY.
Arthur Hayes says this is his "Polaris."
Not BTC dominance, not the US dollar index, not gold.
It's an exchange rate of a European currency against the Yen.
Today, it's around 185. Hayes expects it to fall to 140 or even lower by June next year.
A drop of 45 points. Sounds like not much?
This 45-point drop means the Federal Reserve will be forced to expand its balance sheet by nearly $10 billion per month.
It means Bitcoin and the crypto market will usher in a new wave of liquidity flood.
It means all those technical indicators you're watching now are just noise.
Let's answer a basic question first: Why EURJPY?
It's not an ordinary exchange rate pair.
Hayes' logic chain is like this—
France is the most fragile link in the Eurozone. High fiscal deficits, increasing government debt, heavily reliant on foreign capital (mainly Germany and Japan) for financing. France's Target2 deficit has shifted from a net creditor to the largest debtor.
Now, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing for a weaker dollar relative to the Yen, while guiding funds from Japan and other Asian countries to return.
Japanese companies are being asked to accelerate overseas capital repatriation.
What does this mean?
It means Japanese and Asian investors will start reducing their holdings of European assets.
French government bonds and bank debts are being sold off.
And French banks hold about 20% share in the US repo market.
This is the real key.
What happens once French banks start reducing repo market financing due to capital outflows?
The financing cost of US Treasuries will be pushed up.
Hedge funds will be forced to deleverage.
Then the New York Fed will be forced to expand repo market operations (RMP).
The Fed's balance sheet expansion speed will accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Got it?
EURJPY falls → French banks under pressure → repo market tightens → Fed forced to ease → dollar liquidity floods → Bitcoin and crypto assets take off.
This is not mysticism. It's a complete transmission chain from exchange rates to liquidity.
Hayes calls this "tighten first, then ease."
Pain first, then pleasure.
The drop in EURJPY is the "pain" signal—and also a leading indicator that easing is coming.
Once you see EURJPY start to accelerate downward, you know:
The Fed's money printing machine is about to start.
So how to act specifically?
Hayes' own allocation:
Ballast: Bitcoin structural long (hold long-term, do not move).
Speculative bets (until the end of 2026):
ETH: target price $10,000
ENA: target price $0.5
ETHFI: target price $2
At the same time, he suggests paying attention to EURJPY put options.
What does that mean?
While going long on crypto assets, you can short EURJPY—making money on both sides.
If EURJPY falls, your put options profit, and liquidity expansion boosts your crypto positions.
This is both a hedge and a leverage.
There is also a key date.
September 9.
The US Treasury's expanded Treasury repo operations officially start. Single repo size will at least double from $2 billion to $4 billion.
Covering 10-year to 30-year Treasuries, running until November 4.
This is not a small matter.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent even hinted at possibly using the Treasury's $935 billion general account funds at the Fed to finance repos.
If this isn't balance sheet expansion, what is?
Some may ask: Where is Bitcoin now?
As of today (September 3), BTC is fluctuating around $77,000.
After surging to $81,000 last week, it pulled back and declined for two consecutive days.
The Fear & Greed Index fell from last week's high to 62, still in the "greed" zone.
Regarding ETFs, August was the best month this year. But September started with volatility—over $200 million outflow on September 1, then inflow on September 2.
The market is waiting for a direction.
And Hayes' signal is clear: the liquidity inflection point is right ahead.
To be honest.
Many people have been trading crypto for years but don't even know what the "repo market" is.
They stare at 15-minute candlesticks every day, rush in when MACD golden cross appears, cut losses when death cross appears.
But the real macro turning points are never hidden in those indicators.
They are hidden in the balance sheets of French banks.
Hidden in Japanese companies' capital repatriation policies.
Hidden in the scale of Fed repo market operations.
Hidden in the EURJPY exchange rate you've never glanced at.
Hayes puts it bluntly: As a family office CIO, he only focuses on one or two price indicators to judge whether fiat liquidity is accelerating or decelerating.
He chose EURJPY.
What's your "Polaris"?
If it's still MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands—
Then you're not playing the same game as institutions.
Add EURJPY to your watchlist.
It tells you more than any technical indicator—
What the Fed will do next.
$BTC $ETH $ENA Arthur Hayes' "Liquidity Domino": A Complete Deduction from EUR/JPY to ETH $10,000
Arthur Hayes says ETH will reach $10,000 within the year.
Not based on faith.
But based on a macro domino effect starting with "EUR/JPY falling to 140."
Don't scroll away. This might be the most important macro deduction you see this year.
On September 3, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new article.
He reiterated his price targets for the end of 2026:
ETH → 10,000
ENA → 0.5
ETHFI → 2
His fund has described its position as "maximizing risk exposure."
But this is not a trade call. Hayes provides a complete macro logic chain.
This chain starts with EUR/JPY and ends with the Federal Reserve printing money, passing through France, Japan, the repo market, hedge funds—ultimately impacting your ETH holdings.
Domino 1: EUR/JPY 185 → 140.
Hayes says this is his current macro trade's "North Star."
He expects the exchange rate to drop from about 185 currently to 140 or lower by June next year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing for a weaker dollar against the yen while guiding policies to repatriate funds from Japan and other Asian countries and putting pressure on European assets.
Bessent has publicly urged the Bank of Japan to raise rates multiple times recently, and the market has fully priced in a 0.25% rate hike this month.
This is not speculation. This is the policy direction of the U.S. Treasury.
Domino 2: France's ticking bomb.
Where is the first impact of Japanese capital repatriation?
France.
Hayes points out that France's high fiscal deficit, rising government debt, and dependence on foreign capital make it the most vulnerable link in the Eurozone.
The data doesn't lie—
As of September 2, France's 10-year government bond yield reached 4.17%, approaching the peak in November 2008.
On September 1, it even spiked to 4.21%, the highest since 2008.
France's total government debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027.
Zero economic growth + exploding debt + political division = the bomb is already smoking.
Domino 3: French banks exit the repo market.
French banks are major holders of French government bonds. When bonds are sold off, banks suffer.
On August 27, shares of Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas fell between 3.3% and 4.3%.
Hayes' logic is: as French government bonds and bank debts are sold off, French banks—especially globally systemically important French banks—will reduce repo market financing activities.
French banks account for about 20% of the U.S. repo market.
Once they withdraw—
repo rates will soar.
Domino 4: The Fed is forced to expand its balance sheet.
This is the most critical link in the chain.
French banks exit the repo market → push up U.S. Treasury financing costs → force hedge funds to deleverage.
Hedge funds deleverage → market needs liquidity → New York Fed is forced to expand repo market operations (RMP).
Hayes expects the Fed's balance sheet expansion to accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Note a detail—the Fed unexpectedly paused RMP purchases in August, dropping to zero. Wall Street originally expected it to remain around $10 billion.
But Hayes judges the pause is temporary. Once this French bomb explodes, the Fed has no choice but to reopen the liquidity taps.
This is not quantitative easing. This is "forced balance sheet expansion"—liquidity compelled by the global financial market.
Domino 5: Liquidity floods into crypto.
The final card.
The Fed increases dollar supply through RMP and FIMA repo mechanisms → global fiat liquidity grows.
The crypto market is one of the fastest beneficiaries of liquidity expansion.
Hayes' original words: this series of changes will ultimately form a liquidity chain of "tightening first, then flooding."
The EUR/JPY decline will become a leading indicator of increased French bank risk and imminent dollar liquidity expansion.
In other words: stop staring at candlesticks. The real signal is in the EUR/JPY exchange rate chart—that's the countdown to the Fed's next round of money printing.
Putting these five cards together—
Domino 1: Bessent pushes for a weaker dollar → EUR/JPY falls from 185 to 140
Domino 2: Japanese capital repatriation → French government bonds sold off → yields spike to 4.17%
Domino 3: French banks hurt → exit the repo market
Domino 4: Repo rates soar → hedge funds deleverage → Fed forced to expand balance sheet
Domino 5: Dollar liquidity floods → crypto market takes off
ETH → 10,000
Some may ask: is this logic reliable?
Look at the data yourself.
France's 10-year government bond yield was 3.34% in early March, 3.95% on July 31, 4.09% on August 18, and 4.17% on September 2.
It rose nearly 100 basis points in half a year—and is accelerating.
The France-Germany yield spread has widened for three consecutive months, exceeding 87 basis points on August 21.
Analysts say: even a 100 basis point spread wouldn't be surprising.
French bank stocks have already started to fall.
This is not theoretical deduction. This is reality happening now.
Most people look at the crypto market only by whether BTC is up or ETH is down.
But real money never flows in candlesticks. It flows in exchange rates, bond yields, and the repo market.
Hayes understands this, so he dares to call ETH $10,000.
You don't understand this, so you can only chase highs and sell lows.
Hayes suggests investors watch EUR/JPY put options while maintaining a structural long position in Bitcoin.
His logic is clear: the faster EUR/JPY falls, the more aggressively the Fed prints, and the higher your ETH rises.
Deductions don't need to be 100% accurate. They just need to help you see further when others are still watching candlesticks.
$ETH $BTC $ENA $BABYDOGE raises funds under the banner of "dog charity," but the team keeps cashing out—so is this really charity, or just treating the market like an ATM? $BABYDOGE is still in a "not fully circulated" state, with only 43% circulation. Since November 2024, tokens worth $12.02 million have been unlocked, all flowing to exchanges. A multi-signature wallet (suspected to be held by the team/early investors) has deposited tokens worth about $46.74 million to Binance within 8 months.BTC is the survival baseline: Hayes regards Bitcoin as a “long-term structural bull,” essentially the ultimate hedge against global central banks' fiat currency depreciation and macro liquidity. BTC is responsible for solving "account security" and survival issues. The ETH system is the breakout point for excess returns: whether it's ETH at $10,000, or ENA ($0.5) and ETHFI ($2), the underlying logic is all about betting on the recovery of Ethereum ecosystem liquidity and basis trading. Under the current regulatory pressure and liquidity preference, ZEC neither receives incremental institutional ETF funds nor has a sustainable token economic loop. When capital efficiency is low, smart capital will never maintain religious loyalty to any token—lacking momentum, it will directly cut positions; capital always chases the highest turnover direction. Even Hayes, who was previously promoting ZEC, can casually complete a full liquidation with a joking remark. Retail investors should avoid the narrative of “widowhood” given by project teams. Core positions should be placed in cornerstone assets like BTC that resist risk, while speculative positions should precisely target high Beta assets with strong liquidity expectations and elastic valuations (such as ETH ecosystem derivatives). Hayes' statement is not a call to blindly chase highs but a declaration that the next phase of capital will accelerate the shift from inefficient narratives to a focus on "Ethereum yields and derivatives infrastructure." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robi Just checked the market, and the 77000 level is really frustrating.
When the data came out yesterday, I felt something was off. The manufacturing PMI was below expectations, which should have been bullish, but the price index still held above 71, so inflation just won't come down. The JOLTS job openings were slightly higher than the previous value, meaning employment isn't dead yet—these two data points are conflicting, pushing the probability of a rate hike above 66%. As US Treasury yields rise, the crypto market has become the worst hit.
Last night the price dipped to around 76200, and I almost got my order filled, but missed it—what a pity. Then it rebounded to 77300, but I didn't chase it. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages above are pressing down hard; it looks like an oversold bounce rather than a reversal. Now the price is hovering at 77313, with the 24-hour high and low out: high at 77770, low at 76204, a daily range of over 1500 points, but no clear direction yet.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real test. If the data is weak and rate hike expectations cool down, the rebound could continue; if the data is strong, the 77000 level likely won't hold, and if it really drops, the 75000 area might be tested.
I've personally reduced my position to 30%. At times like this, betting heavily on direction is like flipping a coin. Going long risks getting stopped out by moving averages, while shorting risks a surprise non-farm rally pulling prices back. Better to wait and see until the 8:30 data release.
In trading, sometimes doing nothing is the best move. Avoiding uncertainty beats reckless action.
#NonFarmPayrolls #BTC #RateHikeExpectations
$BTC $ETH In just the past few days, the market has made the direction very clear. Binance launched over 1,000 physically settled options on US stocks and ETFs on September 1; Bybit is also preparing to launch 24/7 perpetual stock options starting with SpaceX and Nvidia on September 17. Looking further ahead, tokenized spot assets, perpetual stocks, and options—this product line is no longer just imagination but the entry point exchanges are competing for. The real change is not that a certain coin has risen, but that assets are beginning to be repackaged in a crypto-native way. Stablecoins first bring the US dollar on-chain. Stablecoins are not challenging the US dollar but helping it take a new form. They turn the dollar into a 24/7, programmable, cross-border payment layer. Currently, the stablecoin market is still overwhelmingly dominated by US dollar assets, with reserves heavily invested in US Treasury bonds. The result is that the dollar is not only circulating within the banking system but also starting to circulate on-chain. After the GENIUS Act was enacted, this path became clearer. The US chose "private stablecoins + regulatory framework" instead of issuing its own CBDC. For people in emerging markets, this is very straightforward: the barriers to holding dollars, conducting cross-border settlements, and using on-chain collateral have all lowered. So the current picture is quite clear. The dollar first occupies the on-chain settlement layer through stablecoins, and crypto exchanges then occupy the on-chain trading layer with US stock assets. Neither side replaces the other; instead, they feed traffic to each other. From coins, to US stocks, and then to options Tokenized US stocksIn the morning, while drinking coffee and checking on-chain data, I casually browsed through some news and came across a headline that immediately woke me up: 21 of the world's top financial institutions, including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, are planning to establish a new company dedicated to issuing dollar-denominated stablecoins. ☕️ Honestly, my first reaction upon seeing this news was: Is the moat around USDT and USDC about to be breached? But after carefully considering their moves and the logic behind them, I realized it's not that simple; in fact, traditional finance (TradFi) is finally dropping the pretense. We used to think stablecoins were a "wild workaround" created by the crypto world for hedging and trading. But now, the goal of these 21 major banks is not to immediately snatch USDT's multi-billion market share. What they are truly competing for is the "infrastructure control" of blockchain-based digital currencies. Think about it: from a few banks testing the waters in October 2025 to now 21 giants joining forces, what does this mean? It means traditional finance has completely abandoned the debate over "whether to integrate stablecoins into the system" and is fast-forwarding to "we want to build this highway ourselves." They want to use their own issued stablecoins to take over future payments and digital asset settlements. It's like everyone used to walk on muddy roads, and now Wall Street is driving a steamroller to pave asphalt roads. 🛣️ As a trader who battles daily in front of K-line charts, I think the biggest takeaway for us is: the underlying logic of the crypto market is undergoing a fundamental change. You see, it's not just stablecoins, the entire W $2Z
Direction judgment: Neutral to bearish, awaiting confirmation
Short term is neither a bullish trend position nor a reckless short position, but the eve of a directional choice in the bottom range:
Bullish logic: Kalshi partnership provides a real utility story, SEC no-objection letter reduces regulatory risk, Solana high-performance chain has a strong demand for low-latency networks. If BTC stabilizes and 2Z daily closes back above $0.0579 and holds on the pullback, a recovery to $0.065→$0.083 can be expected.
Bearish logic: On October 2, 2026, about 16.55% of total supply (≈1.655 billion tokens) will unlock, with Jump Crypto (28%) + Foundation (29%) holding concentrated stakes. Liquidity is thin (24h volume/market cap about 2%), so any risk aversion is likely to first break through $0.054 down to $0.046.
Consensus: Sentiment indicators across platforms at 48/100, 7-day drop of 4–5%, short-term forecast model baseline sees year-end price at $0.0477, leaning cautious Behind the Double Decline: Divergence in Safe-Haven Logic, Short-Term Gold Advantage
Recently, $BTC and $XAU have fallen simultaneously. Although it seems like the "safe-haven attribute" has failed, it is actually a resonant correction under the expectation of liquidity tightening, and their pricing logics have not converged.
Gold's core anchor lies in the US dollar and real interest rates. Currently, the US Dollar Index is approaching 99, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.8%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has increased to 67%, putting direct pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. BTC is more closely tied to risk appetite and global liquidity; this round of decline mainly reflects selling pressure triggered by the US stock market correction and negative sentiment transmitted from miner income after the halving.
Technically, BTC has lost the $80,000 level and in the short term needs to observe support in the $73,000–$75,000 range; the trend remains weak before returning to $80,000. Gold is focused on whether the $4,300/ounce weekly level can stabilize; if the dollar's rise slows, the probability of a gold price rebound is higher.
In the short term, gold is supported by central bank purchases and its inflation-hedging properties, making it more defensive in the early stages of liquidity contraction; BTC's long-term odds require waiting for a restart of macro easing signals. If choosing between the two, gold currently has a higher winning probability, while BTC is better suited to exchanging time for space. Patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve's policy turning point is the key to determining the strength of both.
$BTC
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. In August, spot BTC ETFs aggressively absorbed 3.5 billion, and corporate treasuries were also buying up,
Remixpoint even cleared $ETH /SOL/XRP/DOGE to shift holdings into BTC, Grayscale said BTC's correlation with gold has risen to nearly 50%, strengthening the macro hedge narrative.
But on September 1, ETFs saw a net outflow of 236 million, led by IBIT and Fidelity selling, while ETH/$SOL /XRP ETFs still had inflows.
Macroscopically, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, oil prices broke 90, September rate hike expectations are 66%-70%, plus geopolitical tensions, putting $BTC under pressure.
On-chain demand is weakening, Coinbase premium is negative, resistance is heavy between 83K-86K, Glassnode indicates long-term supply and 14 billion in options positions expiring on September 25 are weighing down, leading to range-bound oscillation. Miner hashrate has fallen from 1.3 ZH/s, shifting towards AI/HPC.
In the mid-term, I see consolidation and accumulation, waiting for macro and options pressure to ease.
#BTC high-level pullback, gold correlation under test $XAU Last night I said gold should stop falling, and when it rises back to break even, of course, it's time to retreat quickly💨!
Last night, the "small non-farm" ADP employment data was only 38,000, far below expectations.
The rate hike expectations cooled down a bit, the dollar and US Treasury yields both fell, and gold took the opportunity to catch its breath and rebound.
However, the Middle East is still in conflict, oil prices remain high, and with the Fed's Wash previously hawkish, the shadow of a September rate hike still looms. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the main event.
Trump spoke in the early morning, saying the strike on Iran "won't last long," and also claimed "full control of the Strait of Hormuz," and "oil prices will fall." Once this statement came out, the market immediately interpreted it as the geopolitical conflict not spiraling out of control. The previously war-driven surge in oil price expectations was suppressed, easing inflation concerns, with both the dollar and US Treasury yields falling, allowing gold to rebound over 1%.
For gold, Trump's claim that "oil prices will drop" actually became a short-term positive—reduced inflation pressure and cooled rate hike expectations pushed gold prices from a one-month low up to around 4400. However, technically, the MA5 at 4404 and MA10 at 4513 are still overhead resistance, so this is only an oversold rebound. Tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls will be the key to whether it can continue to surge upward.
In trading, stop-loss is still very important; resisting positions is highly inadvisable. Extreme market conditions are too passive. Stop-loss and then recover can bring you back. The mentality of resisting positions is completely different. Remember, stop-loss is always right. As long as the green hills remain, there is no fear of no firewood. Respect the market.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 $BTC $ETH
The September non-farm payroll is not an isolated indicator; ultimately, the Federal Reserve's decision weighs more on inflation CPI than on non-farm employment. Even if employment weakens, if inflation rebounds, rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The current market has already priced in expectations of cooling employment; the real market movement comes from data significantly deviating from expectations, while neutral data often returns to oscillation after a pulse.
Scenario 1: Weak Non-farm (new jobs < 50,000, unemployment rate ≥ 4.2%, wages ≤ 0.2%)
Meaning: Employment further cools, strengthening evidence of a soft landing.
Federal Reserve: October rate hike expectations significantly cool down, market trades ahead on rate cut narratives.
Assets: Dollar declines, US Treasury yields fall; US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies tend to rise favorably according to Securities Times.
Scenario 2: Neutral Non-farm (new jobs 50,000–100,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, wages 0.2–0.3%)
Meaning: Employment slows moderately, neither hot nor cold.
Federal Reserve: Maintains wait-and-see stance, keeps rates unchanged, awaits CPI inflation data for final judgment.
Assets: Limited market volatility, short-term oscillation, returns focus to inflation data.
Scenario 3: Strong Non-farm (new jobs > 120,000, wages > 0.3%)
Meaning: Labor market heats up again, wage inflation resurges.
Federal Reserve: Probability of restarting October rate hikes rises sharply, high rates maintained longer.
Assets: Dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise; US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies face pressure and pull back.⚠️Risk Warning: The content is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute investment advice
The Beige Book signal is out, and the market's answer is hidden in the AI theme
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book has been released, delivering a very subtle signal to the current market. The overall economy is moderately expanding, not weakening as imagined, and the biggest growth engine surprisingly comes from AI-driven data center investments.
Looking closely at the report, there is a clear internal economic divergence. High-end consumption remains strong, but ordinary people are becoming increasingly sensitive to prices, and companies find it difficult to pass on rising costs. Prices are moderately rising, employment is uneven, manufacturing and defense labor markets are booming, while retail and hotels have already started to contract. This split scenario, with one side hot and the other cooling, makes the Fed's policy choices difficult.
On one hand, AI capital expenditure supports the economic foundation, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; on the other hand, ordinary consumption is under pressure, and the risk of economic downturn has not disappeared. This indecisive state directly prolongs the market's oscillation cycle.
From the market perspective, the US stock AI sector receives fundamental support, while the crypto market is stuck in a wait-and-see mode. Everyone is guessing whether the economy is not bad enough for rate hikes to return, or whether the data's hidden weakness will bring rate cuts earlier.
Short-term trends are hard to form a one-sided direction; the pulse rebounds from news generally lack sustainability. Before the heavy non-farm payroll data arrives, oscillation and game-playing remain the main theme. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC $ETH $NVDA US August ADP Employment Shows Smallest Increase Since January: Market Impact Analysis
The US August ADP "small nonfarm" data shows private sector job additions of only 38,000, below market expectations of about 47,000 and also below the revised 46,000 in July, marking the smallest increase since January this year.
1. Indicates Cooling in the US Job Market
Hiring pace has clearly slowed; companies are becoming more cautious about future economic prospects; employment in manufacturing, professional business services, and other sectors has declined. New jobs are mainly concentrated in education, healthcare, construction, and leisure services.
This means the US economy is shifting from a "strong employment + high inflation" state toward "low growth + easing inflation."
2. Impact on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: Dovish Bias
Weaker employment data → reduced pressure for the Fed to continue raising rates:
Positive:
Rising expectations for rate cuts; US Treasury yields may fall; valuation pressure on tech stocks eases.
Risks:
If employment deteriorates rapidly, the market may start pricing in a "recession."
Currently, the market is more focused on upcoming official nonfarm payroll data, as ADP and nonfarm figures do not always align.
3. Impact on Asset Prices
US Stocks: Slightly positive for tech stocks
AI, semiconductors, and high-valuation growth stocks benefit from lower rate expectations; the Nasdaq may find support.
US Dollar: Slightly weaker
Increased rate cut expectations; the US Dollar Index may come under pressure. $ETH #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
Today's data set is quite contradictory.
The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, slightly lower than July's 55.6, but still above 50, indicating manufacturing is still expanding, though momentum has clearly slowed. Looking at July's JOLTS job openings, 7.27 million, slightly below the market expectation of 7.31 million, but a small rebound compared to June's revised 7.18 million. Labor demand hasn't completely collapsed, but it's not strong either.
The market reaction is straightforward—CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 66%. In other words, people are starting to worry again that the Fed will take action.
For the crypto space, this data set doesn't provide a one-sided answer. Manufacturing is cooling, employment hasn't collapsed, but rate hike expectations are rising. The real drama will be the August nonfarm payroll report at 8:30 PM Beijing time on September 4. After that data is released, how the dollar and US Treasury yields move, and whether risk appetite will be repriced, is what BTC and the US stock market truly have to face.
The market is still watching. $BTC has been relatively stable these days, and funds are cautious. If the nonfarm report signals "employment too strong" again, rate hike expectations may further rise, causing noticeable short-term pressure; conversely, if employment clearly cools, the market might breathe a sigh of relief. So don't rush to conclusions yet—keep an eye on the nonfarm data. Once the data is out, the direction will be clearer. The Federal Reserve is caught between jobs and oil prices
Employment is soft, but the probability of a rate hike hasn't dropped much. It's not that the market doesn't understand; the Fed is caught between jobs and oil prices.
July JOLTS was soft: job vacancies remain around 7.3 million, with both hiring and quits subdued. Logically, this should be a relief. Yet around September 2, the market still priced in about a 60%+ chance of a 25 basis point hike in September (secondary sources commonly show about 66%).
On the other hand, oil prices remain firm: WTI settled around 90.22, Brent around 94.65 (around September 2). The ISM prices component is still near high levels. Soft labor data hasn't overturned the inflation narrative, it just hasn't reinforced it either.
For BTC, this is a sandwich market:
On one side, worries about recession; on the other, concerns that oil prices will push inflation up. The price hovers around 77,000 (as of secondary market on September 2), and ETFs just flipped from red to green.
The timeline to resolve this sandwich is short: September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC meeting.
Only if both jobs and oil prices soften will the odds ease.
Soft jobs and firm oil prices are the worst for the Fed, and holders shouldn't expect mystical moves from $BTC.The market is getting increasingly nervous about a September rate hike, with current expectations climbing to around 60%+. But I’m not convinced this is as straightforward as it looks. Fed officials have been talking tough, and the market is quickly pricing in a more hawkish scenario. Sometimes, that can create a setup where fear builds faster than the underlying fundamentals change. What’s more interesting is where the smart money is moving. Despite the macro pressure, institutional flows into 🔥Latest statement from Fed's Williams: Inflation is slowly declining, and the current interest rate is already at an appropriate level.
Plain translation: Don't expect rapid rate cuts; high interest rates will continue to be maintained.
What this means for the crypto market:
$BTC is currently a high Beta risk asset, not a safe haven.
High U.S. Treasury yields will suppress overall risk appetite in the crypto space.
Even with continuous spot ETF buying, a short-term unilateral short squeeze rally is unlikely.
📊 Market reality:
There are tens of billions of short positions stacked above 81338, but the macro environment no longer provides strong support.
The double support at 76800‑77500 is repeatedly tested, combined with Middle East geopolitical disturbances, two-way spikes will become the norm.
ETH, SOL, and altcoins have greater volatility, with pullbacks often larger than Bitcoin's.
💡 Practical approach:
Abandon the fantasy of immediate massive liquidity injection and violent unilateral rallies.
Wait for pullbacks to support before positioning; do not chase rallies or heavily bet on news.
Keep leverage as low as possible; no matter how noisy the news, trading discipline must be silently enforced by oneself.
Do not get carried away by profits; learn self-reflection from losses; always respect the market. Recently, market concerns about the September interest rate decision have clearly intensified, with the rate hike probability in the interest rate market already reaching the 60%+ range. However, I believe there may be some emotional exaggeration in this. After Federal Reserve officials release hawkish signals, the market often quickly reprices, and risk assets tend to price in the worst expectations in advance. What is truly worth observing is whether subsequent data can continuously support this expectation. Meanwhile, institutional funds have not shown signs of a full-scale withdrawal. The fund flows for $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs still show divergence, with some funds re-entering after price pullbacks. To me, this is more important than simply focusing on the "rate hike probability." Here are a few key points coming up: 🔹 NFP employment data If the labor market clearly cools down, the September policy expectations may change again. 🔹 Wages and unemployment rate Looking at just the nonfarm payroll numbers is not enough; wage growth and unemployment rate also affect market pricing. 🔹 BTC key support If BTC can hold key areas under macro pressure, it indicates the market's absorption capacity is not weak. 🔹 ETF funds If ETF funds continue to flow back in, the market may be positioning early for the next phase of the rally. So, I will not blindly turn bearish just because of a "rate hike probability." The real answer is likely to come after the NFP release. The market can create panic, but funds do not lie easily. Controlling position size and patiently waiting for confirmation is more important than chasing highs and lows before data releases. 📊