赴星
赴星
囤囤鼠，随缘开单，赚了就跑，亏了装死。
519Following
552followers
Feed
Feed
Xiaomi is still hovering around 3.6, and the previously mentioned bottom area is indeed consolidating.
Four days ago, I posted that the bottom area was near 3.5 for Xiaomi, and now it’s still at 3.6, neither falling nor rising. The market is indeed consolidating, and patience is more important than anything.
Smartphone shipments dropped 26.5% in Q2, but the ASP hit a historic high of 1351 yuan, actively cutting low-end models to offset storage price increases. 9.2 billion yuan R&D investment is focused on automobiles, with the Pengcheng SUV launching in September. No profits are expected in the short term, but the cash on hand is sufficient. From the market perspective, support around 3.52-3.54 has been repeatedly confirmed, and short-term resistance is at 3.65-3.68. Volume hasn’t picked up, indicating that large funds haven’t acted yet, so wait.
The target price in research reports is still far off, and management says the toughest times are almost over. Cutting losses at this position isn’t worthwhile; wait until smartphone gross margins stabilize and Pengcheng delivery data is released. The bottom is formed through consolidation, not by shouting. No rush.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
赴星
Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet?
The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal.
Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash.
The car business is still burning cash; the Pengcheng SUV launches in September, and R&D spending keeps rising, with 9.2 billion yuan invested. No profits in the short term, but cash on hand is sufficient.
Research reports still give high target prices; institutions like Dongwu are still recommending buy. Management says the toughest times are almost over, and flagship phones will launch in the second half.
I think this level is the bottom area, but it will take time to bounce back. Let's wait for smartphone gross margin stabilization and Pengcheng delivery data before deciding. Cutting losses at this level isn't very cost-effective.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI
#Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, debt pressure intensifies
US Treasury yields are still at 4.8%, the aftershocks of the non-farm payrolls are not over.
After last night's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations at 162,000, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to around 4.8% intraday, and the 30-year yield remains above 5%. The US government debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with long-term bond supply and inflation expectations jointly pushing up the term premium, making this pressure difficult to ease in the short term.
$BTC is still hovering around 79,600; after a spike and pullback, it hasn't continued to fall, but also hasn't rebounded. Since the bullish candle at 81,279, the market has been digesting the negative impact of the non-farm payrolls. Next, we need to watch next week's CPI data, which is the key variable determining whether the September rate hike can truly be implemented.
If CPI also exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will continue to rise, and 78,000 may not hold. If CPI is moderate, the market might catch a breather. Hold for now and wait for the CPI release before making further moves.
On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, ADP collapsed first.
The just-released data shows that US ADP employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the expected 47,000, hitting a new low since January this year. Manufacturing decreased by 17,000, professional business services decreased by 16,000, with large enterprises bearing the brunt while small and medium enterprises basically stayed flat.
However, the probability of a rate hike hasn't dropped much. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains around 62%. The cooling ADP data didn't ease the market; oil prices returning to $90 and high US Treasury yields actually keep rate hike expectations supported.
Moreover, the previously released non-farm payrolls for May and June have been cumulatively revised down by 103,000, and July even decreased by 23,000. Reuters surveys expect August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000-58,000, with the unemployment rate continuing at 4.1%.
The key is: if non-farm payrolls exceed 100,000, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, and below 75,000 might still be tested; if non-farm payrolls are close to 50,000, expectations cool down, and BTC might actually catch a breather.
$BTC has been sideways at 77,000 for three days; let's wait until the data is out at 8:30 PM before making moves. No rush.
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm payrolls
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5%
赴星
Neither ISM nor JOLTS provided clear answers, yet the probability of a rate hike surged to 66%.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below expectations but still in expansion territory. JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below estimates but a bit higher than last month. Both sets of data gave no clear direction—the manufacturing sector is slowing, but the job market hasn’t collapsed.
Then the CME market directly pushed the September rate hike probability up to 66%, even higher than last Friday.
The logic isn’t complicated. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that if inflation doesn’t cool down, a decisive rate hike is necessary; Wash echoed this tone at Jackson Hole. The market’s interpretation of the data is—economy hasn’t crashed, inflation persists, so the Fed must keep tightening.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with market expectations of about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This is the last full employment data before the September FOMC meeting.
· Nonfarm below 50,000: rate hike expectations cool down, $BTC may rebound
· Nonfarm 80,000-100,000: rate hike probability continues to rise, BTC remains under pressure
· Nonfarm above 120,000: September hike basically locked in, below 75,000 might test again
Currently, 77,000 has been flat for three days; we’ll wait for the data to land before deciding.