千岛纪（睡不醒版本2.0
千岛纪（睡不醒版本2.0
回本ing～🥹先把300的小小目标拿下！ 最近真的越来越觉得，玩币还是得慢慢来，不追高、不盲从，赚一点就开心一下，亏了就老老实实攒本金😭 女大学生的要求已经很低了，先回本300，再慢慢存钱 还有朋友们，不互赞哈🥺真的不用为了数据互来互去，互赞也没什么收益，Agent也不是傻子呀哈哈哈。熟人、或者我真的觉得有意思的内容，我看到自然会去评论，不用特意来找我互。 以及！！打击抄袭之人，我辈义不容辞❗️自己的内容自己慢慢写，数据不好也没关系，至少是自己的。 目前进度： 回本ing 进行中 300小目标ing 进行中 突破1000粉丝ing 进行中
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If BTC can capture half the market value of gold, could BTC reach $500,000?
The $500,000 figure given by VanEck is not saying BTC will definitely reach this price, but rather a calculation: if BTC's market cap reaches half that of gold, the price per BTC would be roughly $500,000.
1 Don't just focus on $500,000; the key is how much capital BTC can actually take from the pool corresponding to gold.
BTC, ETH, Solana, and ZEC are not on the same path.
① BTC competes for the allocation position of assets like gold, with the core being store of value.
② ETH leans more towards on-chain finance, stablecoins, and application ecosystems.
③ Solana targets high-performance trading and highly active applications.
④ ZEC follows the privacy asset route, with a different logic.
2 Therefore, in the future, when looking at the crypto market, you can't just look at how much money can still come in.
Will funds from XAU, tech assets, and other alternative assets continue to be distributed among BTC, ETH, Solana, and ZEC?
3 The real weight of the $500,000 figure lies here.
If BTC can continue to capture a portion of global asset allocation, then its future potential is not limited to just the current crypto market.
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $BTC $ETH $XAU
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Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 20:18
The September meeting minutes might already be outdated as soon as they are released.
Once this news came out today, it gave a slight boost to both the crypto circle and the US stock market.
Reasons why it’s considered outdated are as follows:
① The Fed just raised rates by 25bp in September, and at that time, the discussion was still about whether to continue raising rates afterward.
However, in early October, nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, and the expectation for a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% a week ago to around 20%.
(Only a few days apart)
② Therefore, when the minutes come out next week, the focus is not on whether they are "hawkish."
Instead, it’s about how much of the September assessment still holds now.
If the minutes still contain extensive discussion about continuing rate hikes, that’s basically old news; if there were already concerns about employment back then, the market will continue to lean toward delaying rate hikes.
③ BTC, ETH, and SOL strengthened today, and the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, reacted in sync.
The market is not trading the September meeting itself but how much the latest employment data has changed the judgment from that meeting.
BTC touched near 86,000 again, with ETH and SOL following, but US Treasury yields remain high.
(Money isn’t that cheap, nor is it imagined to be that expensive
$BTC $ETH $QQQ #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
HBM4 has pushed the price up, how much higher can Samsung still push it?
The most striking thing about this HBM4 price increase is not the 121%, but the price per chip.
Industry estimates suggest that the 12-layer 36GB HBM4 will cost about $600 this year, and by 2027 it could directly rise to $1300, more than doubling (this price is really daring to be pushed up).
① This is no longer just a single company raising prices.
Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix are all benefiting from this round of tight HBM supply. Micron has already confirmed that most of its HBM capacity for 2027 is locked in advance, and the prices are significantly higher than this year.
Although SanDisk is not an HBM manufacturer, the same round of AI storage price increases is being transmitted, and the market will collectively assess how far this storage cycle can go.
② For Samsung, the key point comes here.
HBM4 is stable at 11.7Gbps, with a peak of 13Gbps, and the 12-layer 36GB has already entered commercialization.
If the product price moves from around $600 to $1300, Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix will all have to recalculate their profit models for next year.
③ So when looking at Samsung on Monday, I won’t just focus on the four words “HBM4 benefit.”
What the market really needs to calculate now is: out of this $1300, how much will actually turn into revenue, and how much will remain as profit.
The price has been pushed up first, and next it’s the stock price’s turn to respond.
(This time it’s really not a small number)
$SAMSUNG $SNDK
Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 29,000, yet BTC is still climbing
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, while the expectation was around 85,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
This data is really poor.
What’s more troublesome is that July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000.
(The employment line is truly loosening)
Right after the data was released, BTC surged first, then pulled back a bit.
But if you look now, BTC and ETH are still going up.
(The market didn’t treat this data as bad news)
Because the looser the employment, the less room the Fed has to tighten further.
Wages only rose 0.1% month-over-month; looking at these numbers together, interest rate expectations naturally have to move down a bit.
So today, don’t just focus on how badly nonfarm payrolls fell.
The market has already priced in another layer:
US employment is cooling down, but BTC and ETH are not falling along with it.
This is the part worth pondering tonight.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH
The non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet, but the market has already eased the tension on rate hikes, with BTC and ETH reacting the fastest. Will the market lead the direction again this time?
The September non-farm payrolls are expected to be around 85,000, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Employment expectations have clearly slowed down. Now the market is focusing not just on this number, but on whether it will continue to push down rate hike expectations.
① Below expectations: Rate hike expectations continue to decline, BTC and ETH might still have room to rise.
(This number tonight is really crucial.)
② Close to expectations: The market will first breathe a sigh of relief, then watch US Treasury yields and wage data.
③ Significantly above expectations: The previously lowered rate hike expectations might rise again, and the recently rallied market will need to be reassessed.
(The script might change immediately once the data is out.)
BTC and ETH have already moved up slightly, indicating that some funds are trading ahead on "cooling rate hike expectations."
(The non-farm payrolls haven't come out yet, but the market has already moved.)
What about ZEC?
If tonight continues the trend of cooling employment and downward revision of rate hike expectations, could ZEC also join this rally list? It's worth keeping a spot.
Look at the numbers for non-farm payrolls, the direction for rate hike expectations, and ultimately how the coin price responds.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC $ETH $ZEC