tvbee
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Has this wave of BTC's market ended?
┈➤ Perspective 1: Daily RSI Divergence
The daily-level RSI indeed shows divergence. See Figure 1.
During the surge in May, after the daily RSI14 divergence, there was a pullback, then it surged again.
So for the daily-level divergence, we saw BTC pull back to around 77,000. But the current divergence in the May surge does not yet indicate the market has ended.
┈➤ Perspective 2: USDT Capital Flow
As shown in Figure 2, the USDT market cap has generally been on an upward trend over the past week. It dropped after Wash's speech but quickly recovered.
Also, as shown in Figure 3, USDT has been fluctuating near 1 USD in the past week, with about half the time at a positive premium. It dropped after Wash's speech but soon returned near 1 USD, currently at 0.9999 USD.
There is no sign of capital outflow, indicating this wave may not be over yet.
┈➤ Perspective 3: Wash's Speech
Wash is still somewhat hawkish, but it doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rate hike.
The Federal Reserve must create expectations for rate hikes; no further analysis needed—simply put, it's to suppress the "wage-inflation" spiral.
Although CME interest rate futures show a 59.7% probability of a rate hike in September and a 40.3% chance of no change.
However, PM predicts a 51% chance of no rate change in September, as shown in Figure 4. So a September hike is not certain; Brother Feng's analysis is that there will be no hike.
Overall, this wave of BTC's market may not be over yet.
Brothers!! I finally understand why MicroStrategy sold BTC at the bottom!
Damn, it's really damn!
Here's the deal: Brother Feng bought $STRC, then received dividends, which were $5.64 in half a month.
He holds 11.27581758 shares, each with a par value of $100.
The annualized yield is 5.64 / (11.27581758 * 100) * 24 = 12%.
This is the STRC dividend yield, and surprisingly, it doesn't incur tax on preferred stock dividends.
Brother Feng did some research and found out that according to US regulations, if a listed company has no distributable profits, then preferred stock dividends are not taxed!
When MicroStrategy sells BTC below cost, it results in realized losses, so preferred shareholders don't have to pay taxes at that time.
Now BTC has exceeded MicroStrategy's cost price, but even if MicroStrategy sells BTC now, the profits must first cover previous losses; only the remainder might be distributable profits. So even if MicroStrategy is profitable, as long as it doesn't sell much BTC, STRC shareholders can still avoid taxes and directly receive a 12% annualized yield.
Saylor was actually fighting for the interests of STRC shareholders, and the source of this benefit is not paid by $MSTR holders, nor borne by BTC holders, but by the US Treasury losing tax revenue.
At the same time, this also means that after MicroStrategy becomes profitable, the amount of BTC it is willing to sell is very small.
Doesn't it suddenly feel like double happiness?
Are people in the crypto circle too optimistic? Too smart? Or too foolish?
CME interest rate futures show a 57.5% chance of a rate hike in September, but on Polymarket it's only 51%.
Is there any tool to scrape the data of these two probabilities? Feels like there's a trading opportunity here.
Brother Feng, based on his own analysis, bought $10 on no rate change in September! Lost too much before, now just playing around with the remaining money for fun.
Wash's speech leans hawkish, but we still believe there will be no rate hike in September
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
┈➤ Several reasons for no rate hike
First, Uncle Mao's view: High interest rates have little impact on AI and tech markets, but significantly negatively affect financing for real estate, retail, and other real economy sectors.
Second, Brother Bee's view: U.S. Treasury yields are not low; if rates continue to rise, the Treasury's financing costs will increase. Although the Fed is independent, it should still be mindful of U.S. debt risks.
Third, employment data: Nonfarm employment has been revised downward, showing a continuous declining trend, and recent data are negative.
Fourth, GDP growth is slowing. Q2's annualized quarterly GDP growth rate is lower than Q1's.
Fifth, U.S. stock growth is slowing. The stock market growth is slowing, even showing a slight downward trend. You can't still say rate hikes are suppressing the AI bubble, right?
Sixth, Brother Bee's "Yinmao" theory: Previously, Fed Board member Lisa D. Cook shifted from dovish to hawkish, and Trump once tried to fire her. While causality can't be confirmed, Trump's personality is well known. Surely, more than half of officials wouldn't insist on a rate hike before the midterm elections, right?
┈➤ Why is Wash so contradictory?
To guide market expectations. When the market expects a rate hike, it reduces the desire to raise wages, thereby preventing wage increases from exacerbating inflation—that is, suppressing the "wage-inflation" spiral.
┈➤ In conclusion
Hawkish remarks do not mean an imminent acceleration. Expectation management also plays a role in curbing inflation.
Currently, although conditions for a rate cut are absent, there are also insufficient conditions for a rate hike.
Cato_KT
Reestablishing the interest rate hike threshold + refusing to give the market a hawkish commitment, this is the theme of Powell's speech tonight
Reestablishing the rate hike threshold + refusing to give the market a hawkish commitment, this is the theme of Waller's speech tonight. Although Waller did not lock in the probability of a rate hike in September, he clearly told the market that the current interest rates are not restrictive enough for the financial market, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the reinforcement of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a September rate hike. After Waller's speech, the CME swap rate shows a 45.7% probability of a September rate hike, while traders estimate the probability at 50%! Actually, the core of Waller's speech tonight is still to keep the market at high interest rates. Although the probability of a September rate hike has increased, I still do not believe there will really be a rate hike in September, because the current interest rates do not affect financing for tech stocks, but for real estate, retail, and other real economy enterprises, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be contained, but if rate hikes continue, these enterprises will inevitably suffer greatly. So, as I said before, Waller is trying to continue guiding the market to maintain high interest rates. Besides the data itself lacking sufficient evidence for rate cuts, more importantly, Waller needs time for the working group to establish new data combinations to coordinate with rate cuts. Before the working group's data is released, unless inflation continues to decline, Waller may really continue to maintain a hawkish tone and keep the market at high interest rates. Of course, besides Waller's own monetary policy, market expectations remain effective. To reduce the expectation of rate hikes, besides August's inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is for energy prices to quickly return to normal. #WallerAppearsTonightJie
Really speechless.
Waller's speech was hawkish, as expected.
The problem is that while he says he wants to reduce "forward guidance," he is actually implementing the very "forward guidance" he opposes...
Following his speech, the probability of a rate hike in September has again surpassed the probability of rates remaining unchanged.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Brother Feng first sold the ETH spot he bought at 2500, still holding the ones bought at 2450.
BTC is at 80700, and there is quite a lot of pressure around 80800 with many concentrated sell orders. On Coinbase, there are 622 BTC sell orders below 808.
If it goes above this position, the next resistance level is around 82000, but currently, there are not many sell orders. There are about 200+ sell orders between 80800 and 82000.
Above 82000, looking at the depth chart for now, there are no concentrated sell orders.
Stop being a bystander! BTC is back at 80,000!!
Last night, I specifically checked USDT's market cap and price, and I said at the time that funds are starting to flow in.
Today, congratulations to USDT for returning to $1! You know what that means :)
tvbee
USDT market cap has started to rise, and the price is about to end its negative premium.
Last night, despite the PCE negative news, at 23:10, a one-time issuance of 135 million was made.
Currently, this growth rate is not too fast, it is more like funds gradually entering the market.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
USDT market cap has started to rise, and the price is about to end its negative premium.
Last night, despite the PCE negative news, at 23:10, a one-time issuance of 135 million was made.
Currently, this growth rate is not too fast, it is more like funds gradually entering the market.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
tvbee
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Overall, after the Q2 inflation revision, the data is higher than last month and significantly above Q1. Additionally, the July composite CPI exceeded expectations, so this indeed increases the probability of the Fed raising interest rates.
BTC has also dropped, but the S&P and Nasdaq 100 have risen, likely because they fell in advance.
The actual GDP growth in Q2 is slower than in Q1, indicating an economic slowdown, which poses some resistance to Fed rate hikes, but not much.
Why say there is no need to panic excessively? First, CME interest rate futures show the Fed will still not raise rates in September, as shown in Figure 3. Second, the PCE monthly rate, as shown in Figure 1.
Brother Feng has mentioned more than once that the annual rate data is meaningful, but comparing it to the previous value may not always be meaningful because it is calculated relative to last year's value. For example, the current rise in the PCE annual rate could be due to last year's PCE data declining or rising more slowly.
Observing the PCE monthly rate, there is actually a downward trend. The PCE itself is seasonally adjusted, meaning seasonal effects are removed, indicating that although US prices are rising, the rate of increase is slowing.
It is highly likely there will be no rate hike in September-October; the Fed probably will not raise rates before the midterm elections. However, a rate hike in December is possible, so attention should be paid to PCE changes in the coming months.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Overall, after the Q2 inflation revision, the data is higher than last month and significantly above Q1. Additionally, the July composite CPI exceeded expectations, so this indeed increases the probability of the Fed raising interest rates.
BTC has also dropped, but the S&P and Nasdaq 100 have risen, likely because they fell in advance.
The actual GDP growth in Q2 is slower than in Q1, indicating an economic slowdown, which poses some resistance to Fed rate hikes, but not much.
Why say there is no need to panic excessively? First, CME interest rate futures show the Fed will still not raise rates in September, as shown in Figure 3. Second, the PCE monthly rate, as shown in Figure 1.
Brother Feng has mentioned more than once that the annual rate data is meaningful, but comparing it to the previous value may not always be meaningful because it is calculated relative to last year's value. For example, the current rise in the PCE annual rate could be due to last year's PCE data declining or rising more slowly.
Observing the PCE monthly rate, there is actually a downward trend. The PCE itself is seasonally adjusted, meaning seasonal effects are removed, indicating that although US prices are rising, the rate of increase is slowing.
It is highly likely there will be no rate hike in September-October; the Fed probably will not raise rates before the midterm elections. However, a rate hike in December is possible, so attention should be paid to PCE changes in the coming months.
tvbee
PCE data is bearish, but don't panic just yet
First, a quick note: PCE data is based on the National Income Accounts, making it more accurate than CPI and seasonally adjusted.
The Fed's so-called 2% inflation target is actually the annual PCE rate.
┈➤ Overall PCE
◆ Overall PCE monthly rate 0.2%, above expectations (0.1%), above the previous value (-0.1%).
◆ Overall PCE annual rate 3.7%, above expectations (3.6%), same as previous.
◆ The Q2 annualized quarterly rate for overall PCE was revised up from 3.4% to 3.6%.
The impact of oil prices on inflation is very clear.
┈➤ Core PCE
◆ Core PCE monthly rate 0.2%, meets expectations, but above previous value (0.1%).
◆ Core PCE annual rate 3.3%, same as previous.
◆ The Q2 annualized quarterly rate for core PCE was revised up from 5.1% to 5.3%.
┈➤ GDP Deflator
The Q2 GDP deflator was also revised up from 6.3% to 6.4%. Q1 was 4.4%.
┈➤ Real GDP
Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate remained unchanged at 1.5%. Q1 was 2.1%.
┈➤ Personal Income and Spending
Personal income and spending monthly rates both exceeded expectations; personal spending monthly rate was lower than previous, but personal income was higher than previous, which may affect August's personal consumption. If personal consumption willingness increases, it could also push prices higher.
Data as shown in Figure 2.
PCE data is bearish, but don't panic just yet
First, a quick note: PCE data is based on the National Income Accounts, making it more accurate than CPI and seasonally adjusted.
The Fed's so-called 2% inflation target is actually the annual PCE rate.
┈➤ Overall PCE
◆ Overall PCE monthly rate 0.2%, above expectations (0.1%), above the previous value (-0.1%).
◆ Overall PCE annual rate 3.7%, above expectations (3.6%), same as previous.
◆ The Q2 annualized quarterly rate for overall PCE was revised up from 3.4% to 3.6%.
The impact of oil prices on inflation is very clear.
┈➤ Core PCE
◆ Core PCE monthly rate 0.2%, meets expectations, but above previous value (0.1%).
◆ Core PCE annual rate 3.3%, same as previous.
◆ The Q2 annualized quarterly rate for core PCE was revised up from 5.1% to 5.3%.
┈➤ GDP Deflator
The Q2 GDP deflator was also revised up from 6.3% to 6.4%. Q1 was 4.4%.
┈➤ Real GDP
Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate remained unchanged at 1.5%. Q1 was 2.1%.
┈➤ Personal Income and Spending
Personal income and spending monthly rates both exceeded expectations; personal spending monthly rate was lower than previous, but personal income was higher than previous, which may affect August's personal consumption. If personal consumption willingness increases, it could also push prices higher.
Data as shown in Figure 2.
