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Neither ISM nor JOLTS provided clear answers, yet the probability of a rate hike surged to 66%. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below expectations but still in expansion territory. JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below estimates but a bit higher than last month. Both sets of data gave no clear direction—the manufacturing sector is slowing, but the job market hasn’t collapsed. Then the CME market directly pushed the September rate hike probability up to 66%, even higher than last Friday. The logic isn’t complicated. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that if inflation doesn’t cool down, a decisive rate hike is necessary; Wash echoed this tone at Jackson Hole. The market’s interpretation of the data is—economy hasn’t crashed, inflation persists, so the Fed must keep tightening. Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with market expectations of about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This is the last full employment data before the September FOMC meeting. · Nonfarm below 50,000: rate hike expectations cool down, $BTC may rebound · Nonfarm 80,000-100,000: rate hike probability continues to rise, BTC remains under pressure · Nonfarm above 120,000: September hike basically locked in, below 75,000 might test again Currently, 77,000 has been flat for three days; we’ll wait for the data to land before deciding.