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$SNDK SanDisk's financial report is out
Let's first look at how high market expectations are. Revenue forecast is $8.39 billion, up 41% quarter-over-quarter and over 340% year-on-year. Earnings per share are expected to be $33.01, up 43% quarter-on-quarter. A year ago, EPS was only $0.29, but in just one year, it grew from just a few cents to over thirty yuan—this growth is truly explosive. The company's official guidance is revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, gross margin of 79% to 81%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $30 to $33. Wall Street is overwhelmingly biased: 25 buy ratings, 5 hold, 0 sell, and an average target price just over $2,400.
But that's where the problem lies. Expectations have hit rock bottom, leaving no room for error.
Looking at the fundamentals, the release of the HBF standard is a grand narrative. SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first high-bandwidth flash standard specification at the FMS 2026 summit, positioning itself as a new storage tier between HBM and SSD, supporting up to 512GB capacity and bandwidth from 0.4 to 3.0TB/s. Google and Tenstorrent have already announced their membership in the HBF Alliance. SanDisk is upgrading from a NAND supplier to an AI memory standard-setter, a narrative that has a profound impact on long-term valuations.
The supply side is also tight. TrendForce estimates this year's NAND Flash supply-demand gap of -4% to -5%, with shortages continuing into the first half of next year. SK Hynix's CEO clearly stated that next year will be the tightest supply in the history of the storage industry, with demand continuing to exceed capacity.
But this is where the divergence between bulls and bears is clear. Bulls believe that long-term AI storage contracts and tight capacity can support continued revaluation. Bears worry that stock prices have already priced in positive news, and if earnings do not exceed expectations, the positive news is likely to be realized. Last week, SK Hynix's earnings fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to plunge 30% at one point. The lessons are clear, and the market remains highly wary of the trap of high expectations. The options market has implied earnings volatility of about 14% to 15%, indicating the betting table is already set.
Tonight, the key focus is on three numbers: whether revenue can break through $8.5 billion, whether EPS can break above $35, and whether the 2027 fiscal guidance can continue to be raised. These three numbers determine the direction of tonight—either the market continues to surge, or the positive news will be realized and the market will fall down.
I still hold long positions in options on Bitcoin and Ethereum, so I won't join these earnings gambles and watch the show. Those who want to participate should weigh the risks themselves. Earnings with high expectations are a one-off trade—bet big and small before placing bets. #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion 一个生态越来越大的项目，代币为什么越来越难涨？
这个问题放在ETH身上，可能比讨论价格更有意思。
最近ETH最大的争议，不是它跌了多少。
而是很多人开始发现一个奇怪的现象。
以太坊越来越忙了。
稳定币越来越多。
Layer2越来越成熟。
RWA、链上支付、机构试验、AI Agent……几乎所有新叙事，最后都能和以太坊扯上关系。
可ETH的价格，却没有以前那么有统治力。
这听起来有点矛盾。
以前大家相信一句话：
以太坊生态越繁荣，ETH就越值钱。
现在市场开始怀疑：
生态繁荣，真的一定等于ETH涨吗？
这不是一个情绪问题。
而是价值传导的问题。
过去，以太坊上的每一次交易，都意味着更高的Gas、更高的需求。
现在越来越多交易发生在Layer2。
手续费更低了。
体验更好了。
用户当然是受益的。
但市场开始重新计算：
这些价值，到底有多少真正回到了ETH身上？
这也是为什么ETH最近越来越像一个”讲故事的人”。
故事一直在更新。
价格却没有以前那么容易被点燃。
有人说这是以太坊最大的失败。
我反而觉得，这是它最大的成长代价。
因为当一个网络开始承载越来越多真实应用时，市场就不会再因为一句”生态第一”买单。
它会开始问：
收入在哪里？
需求在哪里？
价值回流在哪里？
这些问题，比TPS重要。
也比一天涨跌重要。
所以我一直觉得，ETH真正的竞争对手，从来不是Solana，也不是其他公链。
它真正要证明的，是整个以太坊生态创造出来的价值，最终能不能回到ETH这个资产本身。
如果答案是能。
ETH迟早会重新被定价。
如果答案是否定的。
那生态越成功，市场反而越容易把价值给应用、给Layer2、给稳定币，而不是给ETH。
很多人还在讨论ETH是不是被低估了。
我更关心的是：
市场到底有没有重新找到必须持有ETH的理由。
价格低，不代表价值低。
生态强，也不代表代币一定强。
ETH最大的挑战，从来不是建生态。
而是让生态，最后变成ETH自己的价值。
DYOR。$ETH $ZEC This move is pretty fierce
On July 28, Ironwood upgraded and activated, with ZEC continuing to rise against BTC, rising 12.7% in 30 days and another 11% in one week, reaching $510 on August 5
This upgrade is crucial
At the end of May, researchers discovered a four-year-old vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool—the attacker could forge ZEC without limit. Ironwood shut down the old pool and started the new pool from scratch. The migration added a "revolving door" mechanism: every ZEC issued must be mathematically verified to ensure counterfeit coins cannot get in
Market reaction — on the day of the upgrade, it dropped to 463, a typical case of "selling news." The next day it reversed, now it's 510. Over 1 million ZEC have been migrated to the new pool, with 30% of ZEC in a private state—just 11% at the beginning of the year
Fundamentals are also changing. DCG's Fortitude Mining spent $4.7 million to acquire a data center, lowering miner costs from $70 to $40, so there's no need to rush to sell coins or pay electricity bills. ZEC-collateralized derivatives have been launched on Starknet, and market makers need to hedge ZEC from spot trading
Technically, it holds firm: near 510, the 50/100 daily moving average holds steady, the next resistance is 580-600, and a breakout is worth looking for at 650. Support at 450-470, the structure remains intact
My judgment: Ironwood is not a short-term narrative; Zcash fundamentals are repricing itself. Vulnerabilities are fixed, supply is verifiable, miner costs are falling, institutional use cases are increasing—these four factors come together
For trading, look for opportunities near 500, stop loss below 450, target 580-600. The privacy sector hasn't exploded in this round yet, and ZEC might be the first to emergeCan an increasingly institutionalized asset still rise as wildly as it once was?
This issue is more worth discussing when it comes to BTC than ever before.
Recently, BTC has been oscillating at high levels. It can't rise, nor can it fall. Every time it surges, the comment section is always shouting for new highs; Every time there is a pullback, the discussion resumes about whether the bear market has returned. The market looks lively, but the real problem is actually just one:
The people driving BTC's rise now are no longer the same group as before.
In the past two bull markets, BTC relied on retail investors.
A story, a piece of news, or a wave of FOMO can push prices up. The biggest variable in the market is who is crazier.
But now things are different.
ETFs, listed companies, pension funds, institutional funds entered one after another. More and more BTC is locked into long-term allocation accounts—not for trading for a month, but for holding it for several years.
It seems like a good thing.
But on the other hand, it also means BTC is losing its former "doubling at the drop of a word" character.
Many people feel that after institutions enter, BTC becomes safer.
On the contrary, I think this is another kind of risk.
Because institutional money has never been the most aggressive money.
They buy slowly.
Selling is also slow.
But once the macro environment changes, they won't hold on because of faith; instead, they will reduce positions, adjust positions, and control risk according to asset allocation models.
BTC's previous biggest volatility has come from sentiment.
Now, more and more comes from liquidity.
These are two completely different stories.
So many people are still asking:
Will we still see $100,000 or $200,000 in this round?
I am more concerned about another question:
If BTC truly becomes a global allocation asset in the future, can it maintain its astonishing previous gains?
Gold won't rise 30% in a single day.
U.S. debt will not double in a month.
As more people treat BTC as digital gold, it gains stability but may also lose some of its explosive potential.
This is the price maturity must pay.
Of course, this does not mean BTC has no chance.
On the contrary, I believe the real opportunity comes precisely from a change in its identity.
In the past, buying BTC was a gamble on the future.
Buying BTC now is more like allocating an asset.
The difference doesn't seem significant.
But the logic behind the price has changed completely.
So now, when I look at BTC, I rarely try to guess whether it will rise or fall tomorrow.
What I want to know more is:
Is it becoming the next generation of gold, or is it still retaining the temperament of the previous bull market?
There are two paths.
This is also the most important pricing logic for BTC in the coming years.
How much it will rise is a matter of price.
What it becomes is the real question of BTC's value.
DYOR。 $BTC I'm Ci Ge, and the news about the Strait of Hormuz is getting chaotic.
The U.S. side said the agreement would be reached within 48 hours, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister publicly denied any negotiations, and Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor said talks were still ongoing. The market has already traded in advance for shipping recovery, but repeated official denials mean the risk premium has not been truly cleared, and there are still uncertainties before the agreement is implemented.
Geopolitical news conflicts mean the bottom of oil prices remains unstable
WTI crude fell from above $80 to around $75, with the market pricing in an agreement in advance. But Iran's official denial is shaking this narrative. If negotiations proceed, oil prices may remain under pressure, giving risk assets some breathing room. If negotiations break down, oil prices will rebound rapidly, inflation expectations will heat up again, the probability of Fed rate hikes will increase, and risk assets will be under simultaneous pressure. Currently, oil prices are in a state of high volatility driven by news; $75 is not a confirmation of the bottom, but a waiting direction.
Impact on BTC
BTC is currently at 64,800, and the S&P 500 has climbed above 7,700 points, hitting a record high. Geopolitical easing is one of the key supports for this rebound in risk assets. However, the protocol remains unimplemented or even breaks down, risk appetite will be reversed, and BTC is very likely to fall back to the 62,000 to 63,000 range. With the agreement confirmed, oil prices remain low, and BTC is expected to break through the short liquidation zone between 65,500 and 66,000. 64,800 is a key short-term level. If it rises, watch 65,500 to 66,000; if not, pull back to 64,000 to 64,500.
Impact on SanDisk
Macro risk appetite is an important backdrop for the recent rebound in the storage sector. The S&P hit new highs, oil prices retreated, and the probability of rate hikes decreased—these three forces pushed up the overall valuation of tech stocks. Before SanDisk's earnings report, market expectations were already very high, with the options market fluctuating about 15% after the implied earnings. No matter the geopolitical situation, tonight's earnings report is the real pricing anchor.
How to proceed next
Two factors determine the direction: whether the Hormuz agreement can be implemented, and whether SanDisk's financial report can meet market expectations. The former determines the macro direction, while the latter determines the short-term pace of the storage sector. Before the news comes out, don't bet on direction—wait for the results before making a move.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #临时通航协议待落地, oil price risks have not yet reversed $BTC $ETH $SNDK How far can one person's coin go? This question is tailor-made for Dogecoin. In the early hours of August 6, $DOGE quoted at $0.0698, down less than 1% in 24 hours, continuing to grind within the pitifully narrow range of 0.068 to 0.071. Above 0.0708 to 0.073 is layer of resistance, below 0.068 is the only visible support, the fear and greed index is 27, and the whole market is very weak. The most awkward truth in this market is: no on-chain activity, no community news, the only variable likely to trigger volume explosions on the market is whether the person tweets or not.
Calling Musk the "soul of Dogecoin" is an exaggeration; he's more like the central narrative of the coin. In the last bull market in 2021, a single tweet from him could boost the price by 30%; Last year, when he publicly fell out with Trump, DOGE fell 22% in a week, much worse than the broader market. The crypto world has talked about decentralization for over a decade, yet in the top ten by market cap, there's a coin with its price lifeline hanging in someone's phone notification bar — that's surreal in itself.
So is this strong personal binding a feature or a risk? I tend to say it's a feature packaged in risk. The benefits are real: Dogecoin doesn't rely on code updates or ecosystem narratives. Musk's presence is like installing a perpetual motion machine-level traffic entry point—zero cost, global coverage, and ready to ignite. Other meme coins burn money to make markets, but DOGE only needs to be mentioned by Musk on a show. But the trade-off is that this entry point is one-way and uncontrollable. If he ever switches to another project or simply gets bored, Dogecoin won't have anything to capture that premium—no staking rewards, no burning mechanism, no ecosystem lock-up, all emotion.
Some people use Musk's mention of the "Doge upgrade" as a positive sign, but I think it's a double-edged sword. If he really leads the upgrade, the community will most likely follow suit, but the closer you follow, the deeper the binding, essentially handing over future pricing power to one person; If it ends without resolution, then it's another "wolf has come," overusing the patience of longtime fans. The current market is lifeless, and to some extent, the market is waiting for him to respond—to follow or not.
My view: In the short term, Musk's dependence is unsolvable; it's DOGE's business model itself. Holders must accept that what they buy is actually "Musk attention derivatives." In the medium term, the only way to unbind DOGE, like House of Doge and Paxos, connects DOGE into payment infrastructure. A coin can take off on one person, but to survive long, you have to learn to walk on your own. Whether you can hold 0.068 is a technical issue; whether you can get out of Musk's shadow is a survival issue.$BTC Brothers, big bing is here—bears, get out quickly!
The news just broke, briefly explaining the market logic: after sanctions were lifted, geopolitical tensions eased, Iranian crude oil reflowed into the global market, and oil prices came under pressure and declined. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations ease, and naturally, the market lowers its expectations for Fed rate hikes. When rate hike expectations weaken, expectations of liquidity easing arise, which is favorable for risk assets in the medium to long term, directly benefiting Bitcoin.
So this macro trend is indeed shifting. The small nonfarm payroll data was far below expectations, gold surged from 4072 to 4252, silver jumped from 59 to 62.3, and now with this new trend, rate cut expectations are growing stronger, and the logic of 'a strong tide and a boat higher' is slowly materializing.
I'm still holding long positions in options on Da Bing and Ethereum. Once this news comes out, I'm even less anxious. I'll keep watching the future trends. Bears should withdraw when it's time to do so. Don't go against the macro trend—stay steady. #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed's disagreements are fully revealed EIP-8363 is still a draft and has not been approved for any future Ethereum upgrade. It proposes increasing the burn of consensus-layer rewards as staking expands, with issuance fully offset when staking approaches 50% of ETH supply.
Lower dilution could benefit holders and limit excessive staking concentration. The tradeoff is that reduced yields may raise validator economics pressure, particularly for independent operators, potentially weakening decentralization.
Not financial advice.
#EIP8363Debate #OKXOrbit盘口强弱榜
上下各推1%的成本摆出来，盘面哪里容易失守就清楚了。
$XSPCX 上推/下砸成本为 11.38万/24.81万，盘口结构暂时偏向上方更轻。 如果买盘断档，这种轻盘口也可能很快被新挂单填回去。
$GRVT 同样看1%价格冲击，上推只需 10.64万，下砸要 16.11万，上方挂单压力更小。 执行上更容易往上推，但没有持续买盘时，盘口优势不会自己变成涨幅。
$SPCX 盘口两侧执行成本没有明显拉开，上推 6.55M、下砸 5.36M。 盘口暂时中性，后续只在一侧成本明显下降时再提高方向权重。I've noticed that more and more people now enjoy trading SNDK.
But those who can actually make money seem to be getting fewer and fewer.
The reason is simple.
SNDK is too easy to create an illusion.
As long as prices drop, they feel cheap.
As long as prices rise, they feel like prices will keep rising.
As a result, he was slapped back and forth.
Because many people still treat SNDK like the Western Digital they used to be.
In fact, it is no longer the case.
After the split and independence, the market labeled it becomes:
Pure NAND $SNDK
What does this mean?
This means it is purer than MU.
But it also means its volatility will be greater.
Because MU still has stories like DRAM and HBM to tell.
SNDK is almost like a NAND price chart.
NAND is rising.
The market feels profits have arrived.
NAND declined.
The market immediately began to worry about inventory.
So you will find out.
Many times, SNDK rises and falls not because of what happened on its own.
Rather, it was because the market suddenly changed its judgment of the entire storage cycle.
This is also something I've been watching lately.
Not SNDK.
Instead, it is NAND pricing.
Because SNDK's biggest enemy has never been its competitors.
It's about price.
As long as the price stays higher.
The market is willing to believe this cycle can continue.
Once prices start to loosen.
Valuations will fall even faster than MU.
So many people ask me:
Can you still buy SNDK?
On the contrary, I think this question should be changed.
Not watching SNDK.
It's about whether NAND has started to drop in price.
If NAND prices are still rising,
SNDK may still have room for improvement.
If NAND starts to fall continuously,
SNDK could fall even faster than many AI stocks.
So I've always felt that way.
SNDK is not a stock meant for watching the news.
It's better to look at the price.
Because what they sell is price.
Price determines profit.
Profit determines valuation.
This is SNDK's simplest yet most brutal logic.
DYOR。#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable
$BERA
Ladies, I found that the most deceitful thing about BERA right now is that it doesn't seem as scary as it drops. But this isn't stabilization—it's falling so much that no one wants to cut losses, and liquidity quietly shrinks and disappears.
I pondered the real question: many people see BERA drop so much from its peak and think, "At this rate, how far can it go?" and then start picking up bit by bit. But the market is just that ruthless—weak assets don't just rise after they have fallen enough; you have to wait for capital to be willing to price them again. Without new money coming in, any rebound is just old chips replacing the market, with daily turnover just over $20 million—such a market even market makers can't be bothered to deal with it.
Now let's look at what the capital is doing: traditional finance is moving on-chain, and projects like Chainlink, which have ETF narratives and real data needs, are attracting attention; HYPE's ecosystem projects use revenue to buy back, so at least the story can be told in a full circle. BTC hasn't crashed, ETH has no direction, SOL hasn't continued, and the mainstream is all rushing for existing funds. Who has the money left to save a fake with 20 million daily turnover? Funds will only tighten and won't spread out to benefit everyone.
So my judgment is: I won't ask BERA first if it's cheap; I'll first ask if it has a reason to attract capital again. What I see so far is no—no new narrative, no new liquidity, no signs of new money entering the market. Counterfeit stocks at this level may look like the bottom, but they're actually just a relay rest zone for the decline. If the mainstream continues to suck blood, it will most likely have even cheaper prices waiting for it. Put it in the observation zone for now, waiting until the funds really return.Apple seeks to lower DRAM procurement costs, while Changxin Memory reportedly refuses to accept price cuts
According to Korean IT media reports, Apple is currently negotiating with Changxin Memory to supply mobile DRAM such as LPDDR5X, hoping to optimize procurement costs and reduce manufacturing costs for the next-generation iPhone and other smart devices.
The report stated that during the price negotiations, Changxin Memory did not accept Apple's price reduction proposal and insisted on quoting no lower than similar products from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Market analysis believes that one key reason Changxin Memory Technologies has strong bargaining power is its current ample order volume. Domestic manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi have previously secured some production capacity through long-term cooperation, reducing their reliance on price competition when acquiring new customers.
From an industry perspective, this also reflects changes in the global storage market. As demand for AI servers continues to grow, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are investing more resources into higher-margin products such as HBM and high-end enterprise SSDs. New supply of traditional DRAM is relatively limited, tightening the industry supply-demand structure and providing some support for storage manufacturers' bargaining power.
If the above information is true, this is not just an ordinary procurement negotiation, but also signifies that Changxin Memory is gradually shifting from focusing on cost-performance competition to becoming a supplier with a certain brand and pricing power.
For Apple, it will need to continue seeking a balance between procurement costs, supply chain security, and supplier diversification in the future; For the entire storage industry, the prices of ordinary DRAM products are also expected to receive some support.
It should be noted that neither Apple nor Changxin Memory has publicly confirmed the details of the negotiations. The price differences mentioned in media reports do not mean the cooperation has ended; the final outcome will still depend on multiple factors such as pricing, capacity arrangements, product certification, and supply chain planning. $AAPL $SKHYNIX $BICO I would call this coin the strongest at this stage. The BIAN contract pool now accounts for about half of the circulating supply. The 24-hour trading volume exceeds 500% of its total market cap. The BIAN spot pool's 24-hour trading volume is only more than half of its circulating supply. Clearly, this is a controlled spot contract harvesting operation—one hand tilting the other, the right spiraling upward.
The main reason I didn't trade this coin: at the peak, volume and price were out of sync, causing the price to push up but the trading volume to decrease. It's obviously unhealthy. The main players say to smash, but can they catch it when it drops? Although no one knows when to crash.
The only thing I think is pretty good is that this plate is small. There's a huge space on top126万枚 LINK，一天之内从交易所干走了
Santiment数据，8月4日单日净流出126万枚，价值约1000万美金，自6月29日以来最大单日流出。交易所里LINK越少，能砸盘的筹码就越少
上周鲸鱼刚扫了2200万美金的LINK，7月份Chainlink刚被DTCC列为代币化交易核心技术提供商，CCIP也扩展到了Canton链和Robinhood Chain。过去一个月，超1570万枚LINK被从交易所提走——这帮人大概率不是准备卖
价格现在8.14附近，上方阻力9.04-9.47，还在磨，但链上信号已经亮了
我的判断：交易所流出本身不一定拉盘，但持续外流+机构用例+鲸鱼吸筹，三件事凑一块了，值得盯着
操作上我先关注，不追。等价格放量站上9块再考虑动手$MEW
MEW is quietly accumulating. A volume breakout could trigger a fast upside move.
EP: 0.000332–0.000336
TP: 0.000350 | 0.000370 | 0.000395
SL: 0.000324GRVT, which broke the uniqueness of Avantis, the only Upbit original PerpDEX
Avantis was before Hyperliquid, but it was the only place that broke the Upbit original that even other strong PerpDEXs besides Hari couldn't break.
The timing was also during a Bitcoin bull run, and thanks to that, the FDV went up to $2.4B.
And it is also listed on Binance,
What's interesting is that it even has a Turkish Lira market
(Are there many Turkish users?)
Anyway, now GRVT is basically the only one left on Binance Spot, but there's some uncertainty because after seeing Hari and working on Aster, they haven't listed PerpDEX on Spot.
However, just as Upbit broke the convention, Binance might also #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops 群里都在晒$BTC合约收益，只有我还在看，我是不是废了昨晚刷到"BIP-110激活开始"的推送，我还在偷笑，以为又抓到一波底层叙事的机会。结果今天早上一睁眼，直接被打脸。没了这激活黄了Coldcard钱包爆出漏洞的瞬间，整个社区像被戳破的气球。55%的矿工支持门槛，现在只有2.53%，这数字我看着都替发起人心疼。盘面更真实，$BTC直接就软了。昨晚还在71000附近磨蹭，今天直接回到69800一线躺平。群里之前喊"技术升级牛"的大V们，现在集体装死。那些高位追进去的兄弟，今天该多难受。链上提案这种事儿，最容易让人上头，觉得"我在参与历史"。结果历史没参与成，先参与了套牢。说真的，矿工不买账这事儿我一点都不意外。BIP-110本来就是个理想主义产物，要让矿工花真金白银升级设备，去支持一个社区投票功能？电费是你出吗？最近圈子里的技术叙事太多了，动不动就"协议革命"、"底层创新"，听得人耳朵起茧。稳扎稳打这种老话，在这种时候反而最管用。我还有几个山寨币压在冷钱包里睡觉，至少它们不会因为一个漏洞就让我失眠 #芯片股反弹，美股空头仓位创历史新高 #KOSPI大涨5.85%，芯片逼空反弹 #世界杯At 3 a.m., I stared blankly at the BTC perpetual contract funding rate, a figure honester than the candlestick. Have you noticed that whenever people focus only on watching price rises and falls, the real signals are actually hidden in the derivative structure? This morning's rebound appeared to be BTC above $64,500, ETH holding steady at $1,880, and SOL recovering $74, appearing peaceful. But what caught my attention more was that BICO surged 33% in a single day. It's not a mainstream coin, yet it suddenly surged at this time, indicating that capital is actively seeking an exit. Structural changes in the derivatives market often reflect true intentions 6 to 12 hours ahead of spot prices. The signals I saw were: - Funding rates have returned to a mildly positive range, indicating long positions are no longer crowded, and the previous wave of liquidation pressure has basically been digested - Option skew has shifted from extreme bearish to neutral, with some quietly buying call options above $65,000 - Open interest in perpetual contracts increases in sync with price increases rather than diverges, which is a healthy pairing. But I don't intend to just talk about the nice. This rebound has a hidden risk: BICO's single-day surge of over 30% usually means short-term leverage has accumulated to dangerous levels. In the next 24 to 48 hours, if it experiences a 10% to 20% flash crash pullback, it could drag market sentiment back into a cautious zone. The idea of pushing the main force backward from derivatives: BTXRP· SOL· Is BNB's strength just a result of mistakes and capital turnover? In this cycle, BTC· Why are XRP, SOL, and BNB standing out instead of ETH? Looking at the five assets presented in the original text, there is a common denominator. XRP cites regulatory clarity and institutional demand, SOL cites network improvements and developer ecosystem, and BNB cites supply reduction through burning. BTC serves as the liquidity benchmark for the entire market, while ETH serves as the infrastructure axis for L2 expansion and RWA tokenization. This description itself is not entirely true. However, the simultaneous strength of this asset class cannot be explained solely by fundamental excellence, which is somewhat lacking. It is necessary to distinguish the nature of the funds that the market is reevaluating these funds. The key is financial action. In this cycle, are the main drivers of the rise in XRP, SOL, and BNB genuine demand funds aiming for long-term holding, or short-term cyclical funds chasing relatively undervalued assets? The original article cites institutional interest and ecosystem growth as evidence, but this is the result of price increases.破100万了，这玩意儿在疯长！
代币化股票持有地址8月4日干到110万，年初才12万，7个月翻了8倍。总市值飙到23亿，半年前才9.5亿，翻了一倍多
为什么这么多人冲进来？
第一，24/7交易。美股收盘了还能买卖，超65%的交易发生在常规时段之外。财报出来不用等第二天开盘，当晚就能干
第二，门槛极低。Robinhood Chain把2800万存量用户直接导进来，不用搞钱包、不用跨链、不用交Gas费，点一下就有
第三，机构也在推。Ondo以9.55亿规模领先，刚跟日本SBI合作。Backed的xStocks上线8个月交易量破250亿
但别高兴太早，问题也不少
地址≠真人，一个人可以控制多个钱包。钱没跟上人——Robinhood Chain占了35%的持有者，资产总值才4400万。流动性也撑不住，90亿月转账量听着唬人，跟传统股市比连零头都算不上。法律结构也模糊，Robinhood代币只给你经济敞口，不给你直接所有权
说白了，100万地址是个里程碑，但离真正的“市场”还差得远。叙事成立了，但流动性、深度、法律框架还没跟上
我的判断：代币化股票会是这轮周期最大的叙事之一，但不是现在，别把热闹当成熟
操作上我不追，盯着Ondo、Backed、Robinhood Chain，等流动性真起来再说，时机比方向更重要Dogecoin has been promoting the slogan "People's Bitcoin for people" for over a decade. Today, in 2026, if we argue with hard data, can this positioning still hold up?
Let's first look at the on-chain real-world situation. As of August 5, $DOGE price was $0.07, with an average on-chain transfer fee of about 0.32 DOGE, equivalent to a contract of $0.022, which is just over one yuan RMB. The median fee is even more outrageous, only 0.019 DOGE, about $0.0013, which is almost free. Block generation times are stable at around one minute, and routine transfers can basically be confirmed within one or two minutes. This figure is still impressive today.
Now let's look at Bitcoin. The on-chain environment for BTC in 2026 is actually more relaxed than many imagine. Currently, the fee rate remains low at 1 sat/vB, and a regular transfer costs about $0.3, roughly two yuan RMB. In previous years when congestion could easily cost tens of dollars, Dogecoin's fee advantage was overwhelming; But now the Bitcoin main chain itself is very cheap, and DOGE's 90% discount has been downgraded from a "pain point advantage" to a "nice bonus." After all, users don't decide which coin to use just because a transfer costs 0.2 yuan or 2 yuan.
The Lightning Network is a different story. Payment costs on the Lightning Network can be as low as a few congs, with speeds in seconds, theoretically covering Dogecoin's two selling points: "low fees and fast confirmations." But the problem is, after all these years of advocacy, the penetration rate among ordinary users remains limited—barriers like channel management, liquidity, and wallet experience have turned away many retail investors. The ones truly using the Lightning Network on a large scale are institutions, exchanges, and merchants in specific scenarios. In other words, the Lightning Network has won over paper data, not user habits.
Dogecoin wins precisely because of user habits. It averages about 27,000 daily on-chain transactions, over 30,000 active addresses, and has a Reddit community of more than 2.4 million people. In terms of ecosystem development, it is almost nonexistent; the most recent GitHub submission was still patching things up, but in terms of "ordinary people know, ordinary people dare to use it," it remains the second most recognized in the crypto world after Bitcoin. The acceptance of payments from Tesla stores, some merchants, and occasional rumors of tip integration on X—these soft acceptance factors are things the Lightning Network cannot provide Bitcoin in the short term.
So what's the conclusion? The positioning of the "civilian version of Bitcoin" has indeed been weakened in terms of technical parameters—Bitcoin itself has become cheaper, and the second layer has matured. But the true core of this positioning has never been parameters, but identity: Bitcoin is increasingly resembling institutional "digital gold," distancing itself from ordinary people, while Dogecoin remains the "renminbi" that can be joined for a few cents and transferred to friends without regret.
The real risk is that when a positioning is left with only sentimentality, and competitors sprint all the way down the path of institutionalization, the value of sentiment will only get higher. DOGE has dropped 64% in a year, with its market cap shrinking to around $11 billion—this is itself a market rating. The banner of the affordable version of Bitcoin can still be raised in 2026, but whether it can be raised depends on whether it can turn 'acceptance' from a meme into a real scenario; otherwise, no matter how cheap the fees, it's just a cheap road no one travels.$MOODENG
MOODENG is building momentum with improving buying pressure. A breakout could trigger another strong move.
EP: 0.0365–0.0372
TP: 0.0395 | 0.0420 | 0.0450
SL: 0.0352近段时间不建议做空，庄家成本基本是确定在这里附近了，概率也会为了炒作把价格先炒上去才会下跌，9月份的加息还是降息没彻底定下来之前，大概率都是上涨的趋势Liquidity is becoming more and more picky, and it's this quiet shift that's completely redefining the crypto market. 🧭
The era of buying all coins indiscriminately and waiting for the whole market to fly high has officially come to an end. This cycle only rewards projects with real strength, clear quality, and sustained demand — not promise or virtual trading volume.
Smart capital flows are pouring into attractive investment stories, deep liquidity and continuous interest from investors. Meanwhile, weaker assets are still struggling to find a bottom. 📉
Current Market Leaders:
🟠 BTC – The largest liquidity magnet.
🔵 ETH – The first choice of institutional cash flow.
🟣 SOL – The most notable ecosystem growth story.
🟡 BNB, XRP, TRX, and DOGE still show impressive durability.
High-risk, bigger reward opportunity pool: SUI, TON, CORE, AI, GRASS, TRUTH, BSB, LAYER, MERL, and ENSO have strong breakout potential — but come with extreme volatility. ⚡️
The group is still weak: LIT, PROVE, BASED, EDGE, SPACE, TRIA, BLUR, PENGU, HUMA, NOT, BIO, AR and FIL have not shown signs of recovery when cash flow to the market is still limited.
Crowded trading pool to be cautious: HYPE, ZEC, ONDO, ORDI, PI, AEVO, JUP, PYTH, TIA, SEI, and INJ may become fragile if sentiment deteriorates or liquidity reverses.
The group is attracting attention: NEAR, WLD, LAB, BILL, ICP, PROS, and ENA are worth keeping a close eye on as capital continues to rotate. 👀
The biggest lesson of this cycle:
• Don't try to own everything.
• Build positions only where you truly believe in.
• Look at liquidity, don't look at emotions.
• Protecting capital is the number one priority.
• Let patience win over FOMO.
This is a market of discipline, not of excitement$DOGE This coin is pretty funny now. You could say it has a market, but it basically hasn't had any independent moves this year; all the ups and downs depend on when Musk tweets and leads the trend; You could say it's dead, but on-chain transfers haven't dropped, Reddit's daily active users are still stable, and a bunch of old holders are chatting and memes, living more lively than many new coins.
This raises a questioning question: what does a coin without a new story rely on to survive? Look at how fiercely the meme sector is now. New coins change every three days, with AI dogs, political dogs, celebrity dogs—each narrative more flashy than the last. The market rally and dump quickly, and the hype comes and goes even faster. Dogecoin does the opposite: its technology updates are almost zero, ecosystem development is basically nonexistent, and even the founders have long since left. According to traditional valuation logic, it is a typical high-cap air coin. But it just won't die.
My view is that this "lack of narrative support" may itself be an alternative moat. The value anchor of new Meme coins is the story; once the story is told, the coin is over. This is a consumable logic. Dogecoin's anchor is not a story, but a community consensus and social currency built over more than a decade—it has evolved from "a meme" to "that meme," becoming the default symbol of the meme coin category. New capital wanting to play with Meme, their first reaction is still this one; this mental position is hard to shake by new concepts.
Of course, the moat is the moat, but that doesn't mean it can rise. Without a new narrative, there is no reason for new buyers; the price will most likely follow the market and Musk's words, and community resilience protects the lower limit, not the upper limit. So for holders, it's important to think about what they're holding: it may never go to zero, but it might never surprise you. This state of "neither dying nor thriving" may be the ultimate form of old meme coins—not investment targets, but living fossils of the crypto world, sustained by the collective memory of a generation.After reviewing SpaceX's first "on-chain financial report," my impression is: the project team is very good at bookkeeping, but the market's eyes are sharp. What's the joy? Quarterly protocol revenue reached 32 million, addresses surpassed 500,000, and TVL remained steady at 800 million. This was indeed impressive during the bear-to-bull transition phase, showing that the ecosystem has real interaction, not just a pure ghost town. But when you look at the balance sheet, the concern is that the income structure is extremely unhealthy. Of the 32 million RMB, token subsidies and liquidity mining incentives accounted for nearly 80%, while real users paid only a little over 6 million in fees, barely covering node operation and maintenance costs. Simply put, this performance is a "false prosperity" propped up by continuous money printing. The real core issue lies in the large-scale lock-up. Starting August 15, seed and advisor tokens entered daily unlocks, with about 1.2% of circulating supply per day. I did the math: based on the current spot price of $2.3, at least $4 million in new buying orders per day is needed to stabilize the market. Looking at the order book, the buying depth is only about 2 million yuan, indicating a severe lack of acceptance. Operationally, the bullish candlestick from this financial report is a classic "selling smoke screen." Before the peak of selling pressure passes, don't be fooled by the apparent revenue growth rate. If it pushes back to $1.8 and doesn't break through, and you see the real income ratio increase, that's the window for building positions on the left. Otherwise, short-term trading should be strictly avoided; every rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? $SPCX "AI is starting to spend its own money, and the biggest new demand for stablecoins may be coming."
Cloudflare has started handing wallets to AI.
The next real wave of demand for stablecoins may not be "people transferring money to people."
Instead: AI pays AI.
Cloudflare has just launched Cloudflare Wallets.
In the future, AI agents will be able to hold controlled wallets themselves:
✅ Buy APIs
✅ Buy data
✅ Buy content
✅ Call the MCP tool
✅ Use stablecoins for small payments
Moreover, humans can set the following in advance:
How much money was spent,
Who can I give it to,
What is the maximum single transaction?
Why is this story interesting?
Because now AI can:
Search, compare, place orders, and call tools.
But the final step is often still: "Please come pay the master."
Cloudflare now wants to automate this step as well.
More importantly, it uses machine-native payment methods like x402.
A simple explanation:
In the future, AI will call an API,
You may not need to register an account, link a credit card, or buy a package.
Directly:
Call → quotes → stablecoin payments → get serviced.
This is the new scenario I think is truly worth watching for stablecoins.
It's not about speculating on a new coin.
Instead, it gives machines truly programmable payment capabilities for the first time.
But don't blow too soon.
Currently, only open wallet handle reservations,
The full wallet features will only gradually launch in the coming months.
So now: the story is established.
The scale has not yet been verified.
If AI agents really begin to independently purchase data and computing power on a large scale in the future,
Stablecoins may be used as payment tools for the crypto industry,
It has become the settlement layer of the machine internet.
This matter actually has little to do with BTC, so let's not force it.
What I focus on more is:
Who will secure the payment gateway in the AI era?
#Cloudflare推AI钱包, the machine pays entry points [ETH]: The current situation is like a stagnant pool, but whales are quietly "absorbing the water"
Hello everyone, let's briefly talk about ETH today.
1: Unique on-chain signals
Currently, mainnet gas fees are as low as 3-5 GWwei, and on-chain gas fees are extremely cold. But strangely, this is the first time in a market that ETH has not directly collapsed in a state of "near-dormant ecosystem." This shows that selling pressure has indeed dried up, but there is no buying interest.
2: The contrast in capital flows
Compared to Bitcoin's recent sharp highs and sharp fluctuations, ETH is actually very "resilient." The recent net inflows into US spot ETFs have actually been quietly providing support. Smart money hasn't left; it's just retail investors who are pessimistic and panicked.
3: My Trading Insights (Key Points)
Many people are waiting for a "catch-up rally," but I suggest letting go of that obsession first.
· Don't buy the left bottom: It's indeed cheap now, but consolidation with shrinking volume is very likely to "fall after a long period." If you want to enter, be sure to wait for a daily bullish candlestick with volume breaking through the middle band; adding positions on the right side is more stable.
· The only indicator to observe: no need to watch candlesticks every day, just look directly at gas fees. When on-chain activity suddenly explodes, gas prices surge but prices don't rise, then just run quickly; If gas surges and drives prices upward, then it's a real start.
To sum it up in one sentence:
Right now, ETH is "extremely low risk, but the time is right" to go long on $ETH at the bottom SNDK财报发布时间： 美东时间8月5日（周三）盘后，即北京时间8月6日（周四）凌晨4:30左右。
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市场预期（关键数字）
指标 公司指引 市场一致预期
营收 $77.5亿–82.5亿 $83.95亿–87.1亿（同比+340%+）
调整后EPS $30–33 $34.45–35.45
毛利率 79%–81% 约80%
一年前EPS只有$0.29，市场预期已经拉到天花板——营收要84亿+、EPS要35刀+才算真正超预期。如果只是"符合指引"而非"大幅超预期"，市场未必买账。
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为什么说"今天不要开香槟"
你说得对——预期太高了，高到容错空间几乎为零。
7月SNDK刚从2354跌到998，暴跌47%，筹码极其不稳定。这两天靠HBF技术核弹+BiCS10发布会反弹到1427，但如果财报只是"符合预期"而不是"碾压预期"，获利盘随时可能涌出。
另外，不同数据源的一致预期差距很大——Visible Alpha的营收预期是$87.1亿，比公司指引上限还高出9%。这意味着即便财报落在公司指引的顶端，仍可能被市场解读为"miss"。
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两种剧本
超预期（营收85亿+、EPS站上35美元、毛利率稳在81%左右、Q1指引继续上调） → 爆拉10%起步
符合预期或指引平平 → 可能砸到1200甚至1000
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你现在什么仓位？赚飞还是亏哭了，今晚确实定生死。祝好运🍀一栋百年银行大楼的承重墙，突然被灌进了Solana的骨料——Western Union把汇款业务的图纸，撕了重画。
我是做建筑设计的。看任何区块链项目，我从来不看效果图，不看那层钛锌板幕墙，只要求看岩土报告。白皮书是概念图，代币经济学是售楼处的沙盘，真正值钱的只有三样：地基持力层、承重柱的配筋率、施工队的实际资质。今天这个动作，本质上就是一家老牌建筑商突然进场，拿着新设计图告诉所有人：老楼不拆，但我要在地下再挖三层。
这里有一个所有效果图公司都不会告诉你的细节：稳定币的储备，就像混凝土的配合比。水泥标号、水灰比、骨料级配，任何一项偏差都会导致强度归零。Anchorage作为发行方，等于是在现场做试块——每一块稳定币的底层资产都要经过压力试验。但施工规范写得再漂亮，最后还是要看拆模之后的蜂窝麻面有多少。
Western Union没有推倒自己那栋百年老楼，而是选择把Anchorage发行的稳定币当作新式砌块，嵌入Visa既有的市政管线节点。这个动作像什么？像在古城核心区做微创改造——不动历史立面，不惊动规划局，只在地下悄悄接一根新的雨水管，连上旧城的排水系统。Rain就是那支施工队，专做这种精细打孔和管线对接的活儿。表面上看，这只是试水，但从结构逻辑上讲，这是在旧结构上预留拼接节点。
批评者说，规模有限，荷载不足。这话不假。目前这套系统只是一堵女儿墙，连风荷载都没吃满，距离真正的承重墙还有十万八千里。但你们低估了“试桩”的意义。真正的扩展开出来，是当上百个国家同时往这根管子里注水时，焊缝能不能咬得住。Visa既有网络是老的混凝土管道，稳定币是新式球墨铸铁管，两种材料的弹性模量完全不同——胶圈和法兰盘，才是这场改造里最吃功夫的节点。
然后，Mastercard出手了。它准备花18亿美金收购BVNK——这不是买一堆预制板，而是直接买下总承包资质、施工许可证和一个成熟的地基班组。收购BVNK，相当于把原先外判的钢结构加工厂直接并进总包。从此施工日志不再有对外依赖，设计变更的响应速度从一个月缩到一晚上。这种整合力度，才是真正的资本重机械进场。当两个国际承包商同时进场，唯一的解释是：地块下面的岩层已经被人摸透了。谁先挖到持力层，谁就能起塔楼。Western Union走的是“旧楼改造”路线，Mastercard走的是“整体并购”路线。两条路都通向同一个工地，但结构冗余完全不同。
至于那条叫$XASTS的钢索，现在被两台塔吊同时拉扯。一端是传统汇款的既有风载，一端是链上支付的预应力张拉。它会往哪个方向偏？结构工程师从不预测风向，只检查应力比是否超限。只要钢索的屈服强度还没被突破，它就还在弹性阶段——而弹性阶段，是最危险的。
当支票本的厚度超过了结构计算书，我唯一想看的，是这栋还没封顶的楼，到底做没做过完整的风洞试验。没做过的，就不叫建筑，叫雕塑。 #stablecoinpaymentraceThe financial report itself was quite impressive, with revenue, EPS, aerospace business, Starlink revenue, and AI business all of the same outing all exceeding expectations, but after the report was released, the stock price still fell about 8% in after-hours trading.
The market is more concerned about the continued rise in AI-related capital support, as well as the selling pressure from the first round of restricted shares unlocked after the IPO, rather than the quarterly performance itself.
In the long term, Starlink, AI, and commercial space remain SpaceX's three most noteworthy growth engines.The earnings did indeed exceed expectations; the market forecast for quarterly revenue was 18 million, but SpaceX directly pushed it to 32 million. Once the data was released, the coin price jumped 15%, but the market held firm for less than two hours before being plunged back to square one. Why? Because advanced players look at the chip structure, not just the profit statement. Unlocking the ban is the ultimate thunderbolt that cannot be ignored. In the next 30 days, it is expected that 150 million tokens will move from locked to circulating liquidity, while the current circulating total is only 100 million. What does the inflation rate reach 150%—what does that mean? This is equivalent to forcibly forking the current valuation model, directly collapsing the original scarcity logic. I monitored several ancient whale addresses and found that two weeks ago, small transfers were being sent to test exchange wallets. This morning's rally was just to combine spot selling with long futures harvesting. The better-than-expected earnings report provided a perfect liquidity exit window for major players. The subsequent judgment is clear: all the good news has been exhausted. With high inflation combined with insufficient funds in the market, even the best fundamentals are hard to escape being "trampled on by chips." Don't touch current long contracts; spot trading should wait until more than half of the unlocked and released shares have been digested by the market before turning back to the on-chain income quality trump card. #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX In the crypto world, AMD (a certain DeFi blue-chip protocol) delivered a stunning Q2 financial report: protocol fee revenue reached $120 million, a year-on-year increase of 200%, directly outperforming established players in the same sector. But strangely, not only did $AMD's coin price fail to rise, it actually fell by 8% after the earnings report was released. Why has the market's "reward mechanism" failed? Breaking down the logic carefully, the first hidden danger is the quality of growth. The revenue surge was mainly driven by liquidation and slippage friction fees triggered by an extreme market rally in May, essentially "relying on the weather." Looking at the user base, daily active addresses dropped 12% month-on-month, indicating the protocol has not truly broken out of its niche and the growth of new users is exhausting. The second, and more deadly, is the black hole in capturing the value of tokens. This 120 million revenue all went into the treasury and liquidity providers' pockets, $AMD token itself only has sparse governance rights, with no dividend or buyback mechanisms. This creates a typical dilemma of "increasing protocol without raising token price." Looking at the micro market, the daily MACD bearish divergence has formed, and the OBV momentum turned downward three weeks ago, with smart money trading and withdrawing as always. Now, FDV reaching 5 billion is held up purely by narrative. My conclusion is: the current growth beyond expectations has been completely overdrawn. Before the real value capture model is implemented, a rebound is a distribution inducement for bullish distributions. In the medium to long term, a period of clarity is needed. $AMD #AMD财报超预期, has growth been overdrawn? Guys, there's a piece of news I've been pondering for a long time—CryptoQuant said whales have started secretly accumulating shares in the "late bear market." First reaction: Another round of bottom-line protests? But after a reversal, this time it was quite different from the pure 'bottom-up' approach.
To set the tone, let's start with: real accumulation and bottoming out are two different things. The key is whether the money moves through leverage and whether the market is pumped.
Solid evidence of capital flows: spot trading is active, but perpetual is lying flat—OI frozen at 109,100 BTC without moving, funding dropping from +0.0021% to +0.0017% neutral, FG 27 is fearful. The whale uses spot contracts, not contracts, which is ten times healthier than leveraged sell-offs.
Crypto positioning: The two biggest scams in this round are FG 27 and the whale news is a scam. The characteristic of genuine accumulation is "quiet buying, no price pumping, no shouting."
What can be taken away—"Three Looks for Whale Accumulation":(1) Spot market fluctuations vs. perpetual stagnation (OI freeze = no leveraged buying, healthy) (2) Broad decline stabilization and rebound (8:6→9:6, reduced selling pressure) (3) Volume shrinkage and narrowing (-75.7%→-42.9%, panic selling retreats). The first two are seen as meeting standards, and the third as a turning point is just beginning—these are signs rather than confirmation.
Real review: As a small retail investor, I'm still on GRVT's chart with a 2.57% floating profit (the sole one spiked to +27.19% in 24H), while whales caught the bottom BTC spot position, so the market is ten orders of magnitude difference. The newly opened XSPCX short (-11.72% waiting for a rebound) was also a minor move.
Heartbreaking conclusion: whales accumulating shares = signs of an approaching bottom, not a get-out-of-jail-free ticket. OI doesn't expand with volume or increase in funding, meaning "someone is picking up bargains," not "the market is about to take off." Don't treat whales at cost as your chasing price.
Folks, do you think this "late bear market" is being true, or is it the whale trying to get you to buy in? Let's talk in the comments—if I guessed wrong, I'll be the inverse indicator. Tomorrow, let's see if OI is scaling up and expand first.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $GRVT $XSPCX #巨鲸吸筹 #链上数据 #聪明钱 #底部信号 #风控策略 #新手科普 #行情分析 #OKX星球#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
我是刺哥，闪迪财报今晚盘后揭晓，存储板块最关键的一场大考。
财报预期：市场已经把预期打到了天花板
市场预期营收83.9亿美元，环比增41%，同比增超340%；预期每股收益33.01美元，环比增43%。一年前EPS只有0.29美元。公司官方指引营收77.5亿至82.5亿美元，毛利率79%至81%，非GAAP每股收益30至33美元。
华尔街25个买入评级、5个持有、0个卖出，平均目标价2400美元出头。预期已经高到没有容错空间。
HBF标准发布：AI存储的新赛道已经打开
8月4日，闪迪与SK海力士在FMS 2026峰会上联合发布高带宽闪存（HBF）首个标准规范。HBF定位于HBM与SSD之间的新型存储层级，支持最高512GB容量及0.4至3.0TB/s带宽。谷歌与Tenstorrent已宣布加入HBF联盟。闪迪正在从NAND供应商向AI内存标准制定者升级，这个叙事对长期估值影响深远。
供应紧缺：供需缺口还在扩大
TrendForce预估2026年NAND Flash供需缺口为-4%至-5%，缺货格局延续至2027年上半年。SK海力士CEO郭鲁正明确表示，2027年将成为存储行业历史上供应最紧张的一年，需求将持续超过产能。
多空分歧：财报是骰子，不是答案
多头认为AI存储长协和产能紧张将支撑闪迪继续重估。空头担心股价已提前反映利好，财报若未超预期可能引发利好兑现。上周SK海力士财报不及预期后股价一度暴跌30%的前车之鉴，让市场对“高预期陷阱”保持高度警惕。期权市场隐含财报后波动幅度约14%至15%。
关键看点
营收能否突破85亿美元、EPS能否站上35美元、2027财年指引能否继续上调。这三个数字，决定今晚的方向。
刺哥说完了。你细品。$SNDK $BTC $ETH SNDK
How many brothers have posted in the comment section of the sleepless night, trying to calm their moods?
2026.08.06
Personal market opinion analysis: for reference only
Market Overview
US stocks last night ranged between 1364–1441 USD, closing at 1416 USD, then surged and then retreated;
Crypto SNDK simultaneously experienced high-level fluctuations and long profit-taking.
Overall characteristics: Huge volatility, prices fully anchored to the US stock storage sector + BTC market, weak liquidity during crypto non-trading hours, and large slippage between buying and selling.
Key reference intervals
Support: 1390; Strong support: 1360
Resistance: 1440; Resistance above 1470
1. Only by holding above 1440 and the US storage sector continues to recover will there be a chance to challenge new highs;
2. Breaking below the 1390 support, short-term bullish strength weakens, further testing the 1360 level.
Market-driven logic
✅ Short-term positive factors
1. AI inference drives demand for enterprise-level SSDs, and the logic of storage chip cycle continues to exist;
2. SanDisk, in partnership with SK Hynix, released a new standard for HBF high-speed flash memory, opening up long-term possibilities for the AI storage market;
3. The market continues to wait for financial reports to verify performance.
⚠️ Core Suppression Risk (Top Priority)
1. Funds hedging during the earnings window period: With financial reports about to be released soon, after a previous consecutive rebound, short-term funds expect "positive news to materialize," making it easy to buy expectations and sell the facts;
2. Cyclical concerns in the storage sector: The market fears that major manufacturers will expand production, leading to future oversupply;
3. Linkage risk: If BTC weakens, all RWA derivatives will be under pressure simultaneously;
4. Time Lag Risk: After the US stock market closes, the crypto market trades independently, which can easily lead to large premiums. When the opening price gap recovers quickly, losses are likely to occur.
Two scenario simulations (market observation only, not as trading basis)
1. Optimism: Holding support at 1390, US semiconductor sentiment is warming up, challenging resistance at 1440; Without trading volume support, a rally is likely to pull back.
2. Pessimism: Funds are avoiding earnings uncertainty in advance, falling below 1390, with downside testing the 1360 level.
Everyone moves forward 🤝 steadilyThe market maintains a false prosperity amid the noise of 12,000 projects, but the market clearly shows that the so-called knockoff season is nothing more than a solo show by the top players. Over the past two weeks$BTC has fluctuated from $62,000 to $64,729, while less than 8% of altcoins have truly outperformed Bitcoin over the same period. This is not a broad bull market, but rather a localized clustering formed by funds voting with their feet. Traffic and hot money are concentrating on $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, $OPG stocks with real lock-up models or interaction expectations, whose daily charts show a typical step-by-step upward trend. In contrast, purely sentiment-based tokens like $BEAT, $EDGE, and $TRUMP have seen their turnover rate shrink, falling below the 30-day moving average, and the market can only rely on insertion to maintain its presence. $HYPE remains the most sensitive temperature indicator of risk appetite; when its single-day amplitude reaches 12%, it often signals that funds are about to change course. $ETH rose to $1,920, a single-day gain of 2.18%. This momentum comes from ETF inflows and a rebound in the restaking sector, which acts more like a reservoir for institutional funds. $SOL is at $74.51, up only 0.26%, but moving sideways at a high level without falling is itself a strong signal. In the Layer1 narrative, it remains the top choice for institutional additions. The AI sector represented by $TAO and $WLD is the only area that can maintain concentrated chips during pullbacks$GRVT A typical low-circulation control coin strategy—this market is all about open-card push-up sales!
Currently, the token's circulation rate is just over 11%, with the remaining 88% of tokens locked in the hands of project teams and institutions. The big players who went long in the backend have taken over 5 million yuan to build positions at the bottom, and now everyone is in a state of significant profit.
Most importantly, on August 29, 6.39% of the total shares will be dumped into the market. The main players are now pushing the market higher, creating sentiment and seeking retail investors to take over. Once these bulls holding over $700,000 in profit start to close their positions, plus the unlocking of selling pressure at the end of the month, the market simply can't absorb so much share. Expectations are fully loaded, all selling pressure is on the way, following the logic of profit-taking and taking profits directly to short the market!刚进币圈两三天 也是学了一点知识 买了十几 U 玩玩
最开始不敢买实盘 用虚拟盘玩了一把 50U 开了5倍杠杆比特币 最后赚了30U
想着玩会儿实盘 实盘的那个感觉确实和虚拟盘的感觉特别不一样
开了三把短线 前两把成功平仓 收益率5%开的是比特币和以太坊
看的一些教程都说 新人的话最好不要碰单价比较小的币 对于新人来说 一方面是它可能带来的收益更高 但同时爆仓的风险也很大，因为小数额的币种价格浮动的非常大
原本我是打算再做一把短线的比特币 但是我没看到什么很好的进场机会
所以就从热门榜上随机挑了一个币 当时这个币上涨了7%左右 进去之后看了 K 线图 正巧有一个时间段下跌 等了一个小时 发现成交量暴涨 当时的位置处在一个我内心比较能接受的一个位置
这个位置给我传达了一个短期内可能会上涨的一个趋势 我就果断开了5倍杠杆（各位大佬也别说为什么我只敢开5倍杠杆，我当然知道 杠杆越大 带来的收益肯定越大，但对于我来说 风险和收益这样是没有什么性价比的，在我看来 就是比较有赌徒心理 以小博大）
当时我入场的仓位不是最低点 我看的是15分钟的 K 线图它在那个低点有了半小时到一小时的震荡 后来砸了一根阳线，我观察到成交量开始暴涨 我认为这时买盘的力量很强 后续趋势可能会再涨
所以我就在0.009489这个位置开了一单
结果也是和我判断的一样 它迎来了一波很大涨幅 但是第一波涨幅我没有把握住，因为我感觉当时涨到了那个压力位，我想着能不能突破 说实话 这样确实贪了一波（同时也在反思 下次汲取教训吧）错过了这波机会，我又在这儿蹲守了差不多两三个小时 期间。期间 买卖双方的交易意向不分伯仲（在这个期间 我确实有点摸不清方向了，但是凭借着我这两天学习到的一点知识 我发现它没有突破上一个支撑位，所以我没有选择止盈）
我判断的是 它可能是这一波暴涨之后暂时性的调整 最后跟我想的一样确实是调整而且经过上一波的上涨 然后下跌调整，我认为之前在高点被套住的那些人，在那个高点可能释放了一部分 所以在第二个上涨的期间 卖方的力量就弱了一点 给了一口喘息的空间 然后突破了压力位 我也选择在0.00989见好就收盯盘盯到指尖发凉的那一瞬间，我突然懂了什么叫"利好出尽"🍓 你有没有过这种感受：明明所有人都说晚上要公布好消息，价格却像被什么东西死死摁住，连呼吸都变慢了？ 刚才看到一份真实的交易日志，账户从75U做到275U，第二十六天。操作标的是SanDisk，一个在财报前被反复"洗"的品种。价格卡在1400附近，上方1435是前高，下方1290到1350是目标区。作者的选择是：不追多，等反弹到1435附近再空。 很多人第一反应是：财报前不是该做多吗？不是有"好消息"吗？市场偏偏最擅长打脸这种想法。真正的老手都懂，财报前的那几个小时，往往是清洗最狠的时候。你以为的"确定"，恰恰是别人布局好的陷阱。 这里想拆两层逻辑： - 第一层，预期已被提前计价。当所有人都知道晚上有"利好"时，这个利好就不再是利好，而是筹码交换的借口。价格在1400横住，说明买盘并不坚决，反而像在等最后一波冲高诱多。 - 第二层，节奏比方向更重要。即便你看对了方向，入场点位差个几十点，心态和结果就是天壤之别。作者选择等1435再空，而不是现在追空，本质是在等一个更优的盈亏比。 偏多路径也有：如果财报后直接放量突破1435，那前Many bloggers still promote click-to-earn on the TON chain as the only chance for retail investors to get rich in this bull market, but honestly, today's point-earn mini-games have become a dumping ground for bot farms and project teams to fight each other.
Judging from the data and popularity, this wave of Telegram mini apps has indeed delivered an astonishing performance with incremental growth. From Notcoin's viral viral growth to Hamster Kombat's so-called massive empire sweeping hundreds of millions of users, the Telegram ecosystem seems to have made a leap beyond the crypto world overnight. The project team claims that this ultra-low threshold click-to-earn model is reshaping the Web3 traffic landscape through mini-games, allowing every ordinary person to benefit from on-chain dividends.
But behind the flashy data, the real retail investor experience is a bold tragic character.
Yesterday afternoon, my uncle posted several screenshots in the WeChat group, asking how I managed to monetize the points I'd painstakingly accumulated for months on Hamster Kombat to the exchange. I spent half an hour teaching him through the complicated steps of wallet binding, facial verification, and exchange deposits. But the moment the withdrawal arrived, we were both stunned: the points he treated as treasure ended up being worth only $3.5 in tokens.
Three months of screen activation, earning 3.5 yuan, not even enough to charge your phone's electricity.
This is the most authentic underlying portrayal of the 'click-to-earn currency' wave.
With no real external cash flow inflow, ClickWinCoin was destined from its inception to be a one-way capital outflow. The project team relies on retail investors' clicks to demand valuations, while retail investors rely on airdrop tokens to cash out on the secondary market. When the airdrop lands, millions of retail investors and studio bot farms simultaneously place orders on tokens at any cost, and aside from causing NOT and HMSTR's prices to plummet, no miracle will happen.
To prevent the rampant bot farms, project teams now have to introduce extremely cumbersome verification codes and facial recognition restrictions, and even force various paid tasks before withdrawals. On the chain, this is equivalent to project teams using the banner of anti-cheating to legally reduce or waive airdrop commitments to real users.
You think you're playing games to earn extra money, but in reality, you're just showing free traffic data to advertisers for your project.
Now, some projects in the TON ecosystem are aggressively transforming, claiming to add staking, governance, and features to mini-games to save the coin price. But personally, I think that as long as the token itself lacks solid business self-sustaining capability, this so-called "ecosystem upgrade" is merely delaying the inevitable liquidation date.
Here's a question for you: After this baptism of the dot-earning bubble fading, do you think this Telegram mini app can achieve a truly virtuous cycle through financial staking and in-game purchases in the future, or will it ultimately become just another traffic ruin completely abandoned by retail investors voting with their feet?The price ranges of BTC at $63,549 and ETH at $1,862 already reflect parts of the bear market. If BTC confirms the $50,000 low, it would represent only a 60% drop from its high, potentially serving as a stronger bottom resistance compared to previous bear market cycles. The key issue is whether the $50,000 figure represents the 'end of pain' that investors expect, or a midway point in further declines. Looking at the current market structure, BTC is fluctuating around the $63,000 range, while ETH is approaching a resistance zone. Since ETH has a high beta compared to BTC, if BTC falls by 21%, ETH's decline could likely widen by more than 30%. This means ETH is open below $1,300. Considering the expectations already priced in, the market is consolidating its positions to reduce risks ahead of the Fed's split policy signals and big tech earnings announcements. This is a trend of risk appetite deceasing, and BTC and ETH$AMD
After AMD's earnings report, it plunged 9%, from $520 → $470.
Next week, it is highly likely to drop another 20%, with analysts further bearish on $360! There are three main reasons:
1. Capital expenditure Capex nearly doubled
The company has invested heavily in building AI infrastructure, but investors are more concerned about seeing returns sooner. Since returns aren't obvious yet, the market is betting with its feet first.
2. Short-term valuations are already too high
Over the past year, the stock price has risen 5x, with a P/E of 170 times, and a forward P/E of 50-70 times, still relatively high. Although this earnings report and guidance are good, they are far from explosive and will struggle to sustain such a high price.
3. Bearish technical trend
The structure shifts from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows, with the weekly fair value band roughly around $360. In a bull market, institutions usually wait for prices to pull back to this area before buying more.Here's another perspective: from a fundamental standpoint, $SPCX is very difficult to rally in the short term, so previous bets on the stock price increase mainly relied on short squeeze and capital arrangements.
Looking at the stock price performance, the possibility of continuing the short squeeze during tonight's only window after the market opens is also very low; otherwise, the stock price should be maintained above 130 now.
Therefore, the capital arrangement regarding the Tesla–SpaceX merger is the only path. Judging from the recent series of denials about withdrawing from China and other information, the merger is not currently a priority.
Confirming the merger when SPCX is stuck at 110 is equivalent to using currency at a 60% discount to buy Tesla—the share swap ratio would be locked at the most humiliating position for SPCX shareholders and the greatest dilution for himself. It's not that he doesn't want to merge; he just can't merge at this exchange rate.
So SPCX must be pushed higher first before the merger can be initiated. And all this will likely have to wait until after the Q3 earnings report when the stock price pulls back to 150–170.
Are bulls very pessimistic now? Actually, not really. Although the stock price performance yesterday and today hasn't been enough to make unlocked shares reluctant to sell, if the price is low enough, diehards won't sell. The 150–170 range, which is neither too high nor too low, is exactly when the willingness to sell is strongest; prices that are too high or too low will suppress selling pressure. Moreover, judging by Musk's recent actions, he probably still has some tricks up his sleeve, such as signed cloud service or defense orders generating verifiable revenue, Musk or the company increasing holdings with real money, or buybacks.
So operationally, holding long-term is fine, and short-term selling on highs to do swing trades is also okay. It ultimately depends on individual position size and leverage level. $SPCX Woke up early to check the earnings report and already understood what was going on with the price, but the window only gave a few seconds and I didn't have time to act.
Conclusion
The conference call basically released all expected positives:
1. Musk advanced the internal forecast for trillion-dollar revenue from 2031 to 2030 ("2029 also has a non-zero probability")
2. CFO confirmed $100 billion ARR target by December, cloud service contract signing amount of $14.1 billion
3. Nvidia is the exclusive supplier for Vera Rubin
4. Starship 14 will attempt to capture the spacecraft body with the launch tower mechanical arm, a first in history
Based on the above information, it is judged that the stock trading time after the opening on the 5th can probably still push up once more to the 125-129 range, so this might really be the last short-term escape opportunity for bulls. I will probably stop loss here as well, since the full unlock won't be until the end of the year, and the price bottoming might take until next year, with too high time and opportunity costs.
$SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 On August 5 (Eastern Time), AMD's market showed a dramatic fluctuation pattern of "sharp pre-market drop, intraday volatility, and continued decline after hours." This was mainly influenced by the Q2 earnings report and future guidance released after market close on August 4.
Here is the core summary of AMD's market performance on August 5:
📉 Stock Performance: Under pressure all day, sharp drop after hours
Pre-market/Early session: The stock opened significantly lower, with a drop exceeding 8% at one point.
Intraday movement: The stock fluctuated at a low level; as of 14:19 Eastern Time on August 5, the price was $486.87, down 6.11%.
After-hours trading: Selling pressure continued after the close, with the after-hours price further declining, the drop expanding to over 9% at one point.
📊 Core Reasons: Earnings "beat expectations" but still sold off
Although AMD's Q2 earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations in both revenue and profit, the stock still suffered a heavy decline, mainly due to the following reasons:
Q3 revenue guidance fell short of the "most optimistic" expectations: AMD expects Q3 revenue to be about $13 billion, which is higher than Wall Street's average forecast but fails to meet some aggressive investors' previous ultra-high expectations of over $14 billion.
Significant increase in capital expenditure raises concerns: The company's Q2 capital expenditure reached $808 million, far exceeding the market estimate of about $300 million. This sharp increase triggered investor worries about potential erosion of the company's future profitability.
Overvaluation and profit-taking: AMD's stock price has risen over 130% year-to-date, with the market holding very high expectations. Given the results only "slightly beat expectations" rather than "blowout," some funds chose to take profits, leading to a price pullback.
📈 Earnings Highlights (Positive aspects overlooked by the market)
Record revenue and profit: Q2 revenue reached $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $1.66, both setting historical highs and exceeding expectations.
Strong data center business: This core segment's revenue doubled year-over-year to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue, becoming the main growth engine.
Optimistic long-term outlook: Management expects data center sales to accelerate in the second half of 2026 and forecasts data center revenue to double again in 2027.
In summary, AMD's market movement on August 5 is a typical "good news fully priced" scenario. Despite the company's fundamentals remaining strong, overly high market expectations, somewhat conservative short-term guidance, and surging capital expenditures collectively led to investor disappointment and a significant stock price pullback. Woke up early to check the earnings report and already understood what was going on with the price, but the window only gave a few seconds and I didn't have time to act.
Conclusion first: the 4:03 spike at 130.66 should be the highest point of this earnings report. Originally, I had an order at 129, but around 3 o'clock it was pushed down to 126, and I thought after the earnings release there would at least be a decent candlestick to test 140, so I canceled the order, but the result proved I was overthinking it.
Although the nominal earnings release time was 16:05 Eastern Time, the earnings-related 8-K (Item 2.02, 9.01) was received by EDGAR at 16:01:05; the full 10-Q was received at 16:05:48; Business Insider's live earnings coverage listed key figures like $7.8 billion revenue at 16:04:19.
So before 4:05 AM, all the positive news from the earnings had already been digested by quantitative institutions, short-term speculative funds rushed to exit, and SPCX stock price quickly fell back to the intraday low near 114. More importantly, after the conference call, it remained in a weak equilibrium zone between 114-117, indicating the entire earnings report was only enough to maintain the previous day's price, and the supply gap on August 5 basically lost the advantage for active price push. It is expected to decline on the 6th.
Summary of this earnings report highlights:
1. Revenue of $7.8 billion, about 14.5% higher than the $6.81 billion expected
2. AI revenue of $2.561 billion, about 23% higher than the $2.08 billion expected
3. Connectivity business revenue of $4.29 billion, higher than the $3.88 billion expected
4. Aerospace business revenue of $962 million, higher than the $874 million expected
5. Net loss of $541 million, while the market previously expected a net loss of about $2.11 billion
6. Capital expenditure of $18.37 billion, slightly lower than the $18.58 billion expected
7. Starlink subscribers at 12 million, slightly below the 12.19 million expected SanDisk is releasing its earnings report tonight, but its stock price has dropped 47% in July.
This is quite interesting. The earnings expectations are indeed rising, with the market forecasting Q4 revenue of $8.39 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. However, the stock price has already fallen so much in advance, which indicates that everyone understands—good earnings are expected; the problem is if they are not good enough.
This is actually a rule Palantir just confirmed a few days ago: the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price. How much you earned in the past three months is not important; what matters is how much you say you can earn going forward.
SanDisk’s current situation is quite delicate. The company’s own Q4 guidance is revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, while the market expects $8.39 billion, which is even higher than the company’s upper guidance. What does this mean? It means that if the earnings report only meets the company’s own guidance but falls short of market expectations, it could actually be interpreted as negative news.
Another concern for the market is the cyclical curse of storage stocks. The storage chip industry has historically gone through cycles of boom and bust—shortages leading to price hikes, expansion, oversupply, and crashes. This script has played out for over a decade. SanDisk’s stock has risen 1600% since its IPO and surged over 400% this year alone, so it’s normal for profit-taking to occur.
But this time there is a variable that’s different from before—the question of whether AI-driven demand is structural. SanDisk itself says that data centers will replace the mobile market as the largest NAND segment for the first time, and it expects demand to exceed supply through the end of 2026. If this is true, then storage stocks should no longer be priced as cyclical stocks. The July plunge is essentially a bet on this issue; the market is asking: is this time really different?
$SNDK $BICO $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #Cloudflare推AI钱包, the machine pays entry points
🔥 When AI started spending its own money, Cloudflare grabbed a spot at the checkout
On August 4th, Cloudflare did something quite interesting—it sent wallets to AI agents.
It's not for people, but specifically for machines. Officially called Cloudflare Wallets + cloudflare.pay, it means enabling AI agents deployed on Cloudflare to autonomously authenticate their identity and spend money on their own.
Why is this story worth watching?
Currently, 57% of internet traffic is driven by robots, but the internet has been designed for humans from start to finish. AI agents want to buy API calls or subscribe to datasets, but they are stuck in two places: no ID card, no bank card.
Cloudflare's solution is straightforward:
First, give me the identity. Each Cloudflare account is assigned a unique network address as a stable ID, which can be authorized to a specific agent. When merchants receive requests, they can clearly see "who sent this," rather than a mysterious crawler.
Then give me the wallet. The Account Wallet acts as the central balance pool, managing stablecoins. Then, virtual wallets are allocated from within for use by a single agent. You can set spending limits, merchant whitelists, and maximum single transaction amounts—essentially giving the AI agent a supplementary card with limits and merchant restrictions.
Finally, open the checkout counter. With the launch of Monetization Gateway in July, merchants can directly charge for API calls, data streams, and MCP tools. Payment follows the x402 protocol, using HTTP 402 status codes, with machine-to-machine processing automatically without the need for human confirmation.
What does this have to do with the crypto world?
First, stablecoins have found a real new scenario. Machine payments require instant settlement, low fees, and no chargebacks—this is exactly the comfort zone of stablecoins. Cloudflare previously launched NET Dollar (a USD-pegged stablecoin), and now the wallet supports stablecoins—it is building its own payment closed loop.
Second, "Agentic Commerce" has evolved from a concept into infrastructure. In the future, AI agents will automatically pay for calling your API, reading your data, and using your tools. Creators and developers can pay AI directly, rather than relying on ads or subscriptions. The business model of the internet may shift from an "eyeball economy" to a "usage economy."
Third, traditional payment giants have already entered the field. Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase are all collaborating with Cloudflare to promote x402 and trusted proxy protocols. This isn't the crypto community getting hyped by itself; it's traditional financial infrastructure embracing machine payments.
Cloudflare is not just making a wallet; it is building a payment railway for the AI era. When machines begin autonomous transactions, whoever controls the identity + payment entry controls the business foundation of the next-generation internet.
How far do you think the era of AI agents spending money on their own is really away? 👇The most outrageous thing about MU isn't the price fluctuations.
It's that it's becoming less and less like a company selling memory.
A few days ago, when MU surged, I went to check institutional conference calls.
The results revealed a particularly interesting phenomenon.
The question analysts ask most is not DRAM price.
Not NAND inventory.
Not even HBM's profit margin.
Instead:
Will Microsoft continue to burn money next year?
Doesn't it sound strange?
A company selling memory.
Now, the stock price is actually starting to be decided by Microsoft.
Three years ago, no one would have believed this.
Watching MU before was very simple.
How well do PCs sell?
How well are the phones selling?
Is the server restocking?
Now it's completely changed $MUU
Looking at MU now, the first thing you do isn't open Micron's official website.
Instead, it depends on whether Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have increased their CapEx.
Because for every AI data center expansion,
You need to buy GPUs.
HBM is worth buying.
DRAM is a buy.
You should also buy enterprise-grade SSDs.
MU is no longer selling memory.
It sells tickets to AI infrastructure.
So recently, many people have been asking:
Can MU still be bought?
I feel this question is asking the wrong question.
What should really be asked is:
Does Microsoft still dare to continue investing $200 billion a year?
If the answer is 'dare.'
Then MU's orders won't be lacking.
If one day these tech giants start saying:
AI investment should be held back for now.
MU might not even need to release a financial report.
The market will first drive down the stock price.
So now I study MU less and less.
I am studying Microsoft.
Research Meta.
Research Amazon.
Because what truly determines MU's future.
It's no longer Micron itself.
Instead, it's the wallets of these AI giants.
That's why I've always felt this way.
MU is no longer a storage company.
It is more like a real-time report card of AI capital expenditure.
As long as the world is still frantically building data centers.
MU has its own story.
But if AI starts saving money.
MU will definitely be among the first companies to feel the pressure.
Don't ask how much MU can go up now.
First, let me ask: AI giants, are they still willing to keep spending?
DYOR。