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Late at night, the elevator stopped on the 23rd floor, doors opening and closing. Ajie stared at his phone screen. BTC had just broken through the $100,000 mark, and his account had a long position. The opening price was exactly at $99,999, with 10x leverage and almost zero unrealized gains.
He didn't place an order at all.
The elevator lights flickered. A Jie called the customer service hotline, and a familiar voice came through—the trader Lao Liang, who had exited him three years ago: "Stop playing, I opened that order for you." ”
Ajie's voice got stuck in his throat: "How did you get into my account?" ”
"The 'BTC Breaking 100,000 Preview Report' you clicked in the group last week used my phishing link. You enter your exchange account and Google verification code. "Old Liang paused, "I calculated it. Around 100,000 BTC, there will be a large number of sell orders, and your long positions will be placed at $99,999, acting as liquidity absorbers—my short positions are right at $100001 waiting for you to chase." ”
Ajie redrew the candlestick line, BTC repeatedly rubbed near 100,000, but just couldn't break up. His long trades struggled with floating profits at the break-even line, and the opponent's ID showed Lao Liang's short position price exactly $2 higher than his.
"What you need to do now isn't save me, but to control yourself and not close your positions." Old Liang said, "The moment you close your position, my short position is executed, and the profit is exactly your loss plus the fees." ”
The elevator descended to the first floor, the doors opened, and the lobby was empty. Ajie watched the BTC on the phone screen jumping back and forth between 99999 and 100001, like a saw repeatedly tugging at his account.
The sound of cars passing by came from outside the door, moving from near to far.
When BTC broke through 100,000, some people only had numbers in their accounts, while others held the handle of a saw.姐妹们！
$BEAT 这个妖币我是真的服
从去年11月最低0.068美元一路拉到今年6月最高11.10美元，不到七个月涨幅超11600%。
三天从11跌到4.4，市值蒸发7亿美金。追在11刀的人，脸都绿了。
但我今天要说的不是追高，是做空。
8月1日，2124万枚BEAT解锁，价值约6780万美元。按照常理，这么大的解锁量砸下来，价格不跌反涨，24小时涨超16%。
做空的人直接被轧空，空头清算把价格越推越高。
未平仓量飙升到1.1亿美元，24小时涨了24%。
巨鲸还在疯狂吸筹，光7月30日一天就买了2500万美元的BEAT。
4小时级别，价格在走上升通道，RSI 67.57，动能还在多头这边。
但做空的人也不是完全没理由。
订单簿上71%是卖单墙，大户在4.30、4.50、5.00挂着大额卖单。
技术面看，4.9967是第一道坎，确认站稳才能打开到5.80的空间。一旦被拒，回调看到3.98。
我现在的心态就是，知道它还能涨，但不敢追。知道它随时会跌，但不敢空。
BEAT从11刀跌到4.4的时候我在观望，从4.4涨回4.7的时候我还在观望。
眼睁睁看着别人赚钱，比我自己亏钱还难受。
这玩意儿已经不是基本面能解释的了，纯粹是巨鲸和散户的博弈场。
做空被轧，做多怕接盘，怎么做都是错。
$BTC
$ETH
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 $SPCX
$SPCX 跌破 $80 才是终极买点？
1. 股价还将暴跌 20%-25%
因为抛压未尽，第一个长线买入机会在 $80 附近，对应 1 万亿美元市值。
2. 未来 6 个月面临无休止的解禁
8-12 月是密集解锁期，8 月 4 日财报，8 月 6 日总股本 20% 的首批大解禁，此后每逢财报周及双周都会有约 7% 的筹码释放！
3. 短期做空看跌，长期则是百年一遇的暴富筹码
短期逢高做空机会更多，但拉长到 2-3 年视角，这轮砸盘是为后续暴涨做铺垫。
4. 核心逻辑并非航天，而是算力与 AI
马斯克拉抬估值的真正主线是 Grok、AI 模型与数据中心基建。Hynix and MU Trading Analysis
The fundamentals of Hynix and $MU remain strong. What has truly changed is that the market has shifted from "trading on AI memory growth" to "testing how long high profitability can be maintained." Demand for HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs continues to expand, but current valuations and market expectations are already high. Simply delivering good financial results is no longer enough; continuous outperformance is required.
$SKHYNIX's advantages lie in HBM technology, market share, and customer relationships. If HBM4 shipments go smoothly and long-term supply contracts increase, its fundamentals will remain the strongest among memory stocks. However, recent high leverage in Korean stocks and market volatility suggest it is better to wait for a pullback to buy in batches rather than chasing sudden rallies.
MU's advantages include US stock liquidity, options tools, and benefiting simultaneously from price increases in HBM, DRAM, and NAND. It is easier to trade than Hynix, but the market has already priced in very high gross margins and growth expectations. Any slowdown in Hyperscaler CapEx, a drop in HBM prices, or increased supply from Samsung could quickly compress valuations.
Overall, Hynix is more suitable for medium-term fundamental trading, while MU is better for swing and event-driven trading. Both can be viewed with a bullish bias, but the current core strategy is not to chase highs but to wait for the market to deleverage and retest support before entering. The true failure conditions would be a cutback in AI capital expenditure, delays in HBM4, or a shift back to memory oversupply.Fundamental Research Report $OCEAN / Ocean Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
To get straight to the point: Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN) has an overall score of 54/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Ocean Protocol (token $OCEAN), AI/computing power track. Focuses on data trading + AI training. Benchmarked against FET and TAO. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by the hour of the GPU. The A100's monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified approach, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, Ocean Protocol $3.00B, FET not disclosed, TAO not disclosed. For FDV, Ocean Protocol $4.20B, FET not disclosed, TAO not disclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Ocean Protocol is $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Ocean Protocol has not disclosed this, FET has not disclosed, and TAO has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Overall: Solid fundamentals (score 54/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break down, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
That's all for this research report. If you found it useful, please give it a follow.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe Clear Act should be gone......
Starting August 7, the Senate will enter a recess, and only resume on September 11. But in September, all the time is focused on handling major bills and preparing for midterm elections. The priority for clear bill scheduling is very low and doesn't make it up
Last week, the Senate made it clear that there are strong objections to the so-called presidential concessions:
1. Only Trump himself is restricted, but he can do things through his family and by registering companies;
2. Enforcement power is given to the Department of Justice, but its head is Trump's former personal lawyer, and the Senate does not agree with him overseeing himself;
3. The Ethics Clause automatically expires at the end of his 29-year term, meaning the Senate won't even have laws to settle accounts afterward.
In other words, so-called concessions are no different from not making concessions—it's just headline clickbait. The Senate is very unlikely to schedule a vote this year, and even if it does, it is very likely to fail.
The probability of the bill's passage is only 30% in the market, with #30-year US Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high Foreign investors are aggressively buying domestic tech at the bottom! $35 billion ready to go—has the VC winter finally come to an end?
After three years of sluggish fundraising, the domestic venture capital market has recently seen major capital movements, with a large amount of overseas USD capital retargeting China's tech sector.
Relevant data shows that at least 60 new USD funds in the market have simultaneously started fundraising processes, with a total planned fundraising reaching $35 billion, of which 40 are venture capital funds focused on startups. Established institutions such as IDG, Matrix Partners Ventures, and Mingshi Capital are all advancing new fund launches, with ZhenGe and Qiming taking the lead in completing fundraising.
The core driving force behind capital shifts is inseparable from the domestic AI industry's continuous impressive achievements. Zhipu and MiniMax have successfully entered the capital market, while DeepSeek, Moon's Dark Side, and humanoid robot sectors continue to make breakthroughs. Overseas capital is beginning to see Chinese AI as an important way to diversify U.S. market risk, and the cost advantage of local models is the core highlight most valued by foreign investors.
However, this fundraising boom cannot be called a comprehensive industry recovery; it is merely a selective recovery after the downturn. The gap is evident when comparing the data: in 2022, the total fundraising by related US dollar funds in China reached $150 billion, shrinking to $13.6 billion by 2025. The number of funds has plummeted from over a thousand to less than a hundred, with a huge gap in market size.
Capital divergence is also very clear: large U.S. institutions remain cautious due to technology policy constraints, while European and Middle Eastern capital are more eager to intervene. Now that it is a buyer's market, overseas investors have greatly increased their influence, not only competing for joint investment rights but also requiring fund managers to increase their own capital co-investment. Massive amounts of capital are pouring into high-quality AI projects, and competition among these quality targets will only become fiercer.
Do you think this wave of US dollar capital inflows can help the domestic primary market emerge from its prolonged slump?SpaceX reports earnings on Aug. 4. Two days later, up to 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale.
For comparison, the IPO floated only about 629 million shares.
The market isn't asking whether SpaceX is a great company. It's asking whether the current valuation already reflects too much future success.#EarningsWeekAhead 深夜敲定35亿AI股权交易，隔天一早紧急撤回，大佬的取舍藏着市场大信号
AI赛道顶级筹码Anthropic曾出现一笔巨额股权转让，背后资本的操作思路值得所有人琢磨。
Leopold资金压力最大的时候，已经谈妥出手价值35亿美元的Anthropic股权，Greenoaks联合红杉资本组成买方接盘，双方深夜敲定全部交易细节。可仅仅隔了一夜，这笔重磅买卖直接作废。
他没有忍痛抛售稀缺的AI一级市场股权，转头选择清掉手里大部分公开流通股票，变现资金用来偿还杠杆负债。
后续给投资人的信件里也直白说明了逻辑，宁愿牺牲波动更大的二级市场仓位，也要牢牢攥住Anthropic这类未上市优质私募股权，优先卸掉基金杠杆压力，守住长期核心资产。
这件事也能看出当下机构共识：头部未上市AI企业股权，在资本眼里的长期价值，远高于随时能变现的公开股票。
你们觉得后续一级AI股权还会持续溢价吗？The real bonus for OKB in 2026 isn't RWA, but Exchange OS: deploying a marketplace = locking a batch of $OKB first!
A new demand layer added in 2026—also areas many old OGs haven't caught up yet.
On 2026/5/26, OKX officially announced Exchange OS: integrating matching with OKX, margin, clearing, settlement, and risk control into a public protocol layer on X Layer; Anyone, institution, and project team can build their own spot / sustainability / results prediction market on it.
The key sentence is hidden in the white paper:
Before creating a trading venue or listing a market, the deployer must first lock OKB in the X Layer staking contract!
This step is much more significant than "Gas Burning":
Gas consumption is burned in small amounts per transaction, with total control and minimal intraday fluctuations
Staking is about locking positions based on market size—if you build a perpetual market with million-dollar TVL, you first have to hold a batch of OKB as access collateral. This portion isn't burned, but is withdrawn from circulation for a long time
The first public beta was the 2026 World Cup result prediction market (simulation market), which has already run the "market→lock OKB→shared unified account/margin" system
Layer up the compliance buff (this part is a community/second-hand compilation, don't treat it like a hammer):
In March 2026, OKX and NYSE parent company ICE established a joint venture entity, aiming to open the tokenized US/NYSE channel
The EU MiCA transition period ends in July 2026. OKX is one of the few platforms to have all three tiers: MiCA + payment institution + MiFID II. The European traffic freed up by competitors' withdrawal will be channeled into OKX! $OKB 微软 FY2026 Q4 营收900亿美元、同比增长18%，净利润358亿美元、同比增长31%。业绩走强可以推动估值重定价，但平台所说的“市值单日增加近4500亿美元”，不等于有等额现金流入公司。
市值＝最新股价×总股本，边际成交抬高价格后，全部股份都会按新价格重估。所以看“市值暴增”时，重点不是想象一座现金山，而是理解市场愿意用更高价格给未来利润定价。仅作知识分享，不构成投资建议。#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 $XMSFT I studied the trends of 100 surging coins and found a common trait
Today, this pattern has come true once again
Anything that rose the most recently has fallen the hardest recently
PEANUT fell 14.9%
By the way, it fell 13.1%.
WIF also fell 4.8%
And those that rise are either small-cap monster coins or have real narratives
M rose 66.7%, META rose 50%
Then guess what
Turning to the international edition is even more interesting
Korean KOSPI surged 14% intraday, marking the largest single-day gain in history
The yen intervention war has escalated, and the US is preparing to intervene
Trump is saying he's lost faith in Iran and is preparing for another strike
The stock market is celebrating, exchange rates are fighting, and geopolitics are smoking
What about encryption?
BTC 62924, down 0.05%, steady as an old dog
This is the common point I've found: the sharp rise and fall of demon coins is just noise; the real main theme is always the big pie's own rhythm
Every impulse of the knockoff is borrowing the main storyline's emotions
When they're in a good mood, they fly high; when they're down, they fall quickly
So my judgment is: don't chase the top performers today, if you do, you'll just buy in. The 14% surge in KOSPI is an extreme market, and it's very likely to have to pay off debts later. Honestly, watch BTC and other directions
There are a few more noteworthy topics today, so let's talk about them together:
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
A 14% daily rise is not a normal rise, but an extreme correction. Rebounds at this level often overdraw the gains expected in the following days, so chasing in carries significant risk. Mapping to crypto, short-term sentiment may be affected, but sustainability is questionable. I will just watch without chasing
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
Once the exchange rate war starts, global risk assets tremble along with it. Yen intervention can disrupt carry trades; historically, every yen movement has led crypto to fall first and then stabilize. At times like this, I tend to lighten my positions and wait for the exchange rate to settle down before watching
#
When geopolitical news comes out, oil prices move first, and risk assets fall first. But past experience has told me that BTC is becoming increasingly insensitive to geopolitical conflicts, so a real drop is actually an opportunity. After venting emotions, you still have to buy what you should buy; I tend to pick up bargains amid panic
$BTC $SOL #涨跌幅 #山寨有一组数据你们可能不信，但它是真的
昨晚财报季这几家巨头，走势全跟常识反着来
亚马逊指引不及预期，股价反而涨了9%
微软一天市值增加近4500亿，创了美股纪录
苹果业绩超预期，盘后股价却大跌
我盯着这几个标题看了三遍
然后你猜怎么着
美股这种"利好出尽、利空反转"的走法，今天直接传导到加密
BTC 62924，几乎没动
ETH 1852，跌了0.75%
SOL 72.4，跌了0.93%
大饼稳稳的，山寨小幅回调
资金没有恐慌出逃，就是在观望
这种预期差逻辑在币圈一样适用
财报超预期的苹果跌了，因为价格早就把它消化完了
不及预期的亚马逊涨了，因为大家预期更低
市场交易的不是事实，是预期差
现在美股盘前期货波动不大，加密跟着平稳
真正的方向要等美联储9月加息的靴子落地
所以我的判断是：财报季的预期差告诉我们，消息落地前别提前押方向。超预期可能跌，不及预期可能涨，与其猜，不如等盘面给出选择再说
接下来瞄一眼最近有什么热点，随便唠几句：
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
不及预期还能涨9%，说明市场本来预期更差，实际数据是惊喜。这种预期差逻辑在加密里也一样，利空落地不跌反涨，往往就是阶段底部信号，别被表面消息骗了
#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调
一天涨出一个独角兽的市值，AI叙事对科技股的加持太猛了。微软这种体量还能单日增4500亿，说明资金在往确定性最强的巨头集中，风险偏好其实在回暖，对风险资产是好事
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
超预期还跌，典型的利好出尽。价格已经提前把好消息消化完了，落地就是卖点。这种走法加密圈天天见，记住一点：买在预期前，卖在落地后，别跟消息做反向交易
$BTC $ETH #财报季 #美股半夜那一波插针，估计吓坏了不少老铁。大饼咣当一下砸到了62200多，以太也直接插针到了1820附近。
为啥突然这么砸？说白了，就是恐慌。
凌晨那会儿，美伊那边气氛一直挺紧绷的，市场避险情绪瞬间就拉满了。偏偏在这个节骨眼上，币圈又冒出来一个超级大瓜——传微策略（Strategy）要抛售50亿美元的比特币。
一个是打仗的雷，一个是巨鲸砸盘的消息，两把刀悬在头顶，盘面直接被按在地上摩擦，最低点交出带血筹码的兄弟肯定不少。当时看着那根大阴线，很多人都觉得这波是不是要扛不住了。
结果呢？一觉睡醒，天亮了，风向有了缓和。
先看宏观那边。特朗普半夜发了篇长文，除了放狠话说自己有“二战以来最强的军事实力”之外，最关键的一点是——他确认已经收到了伊朗和中东国家暂缓攻击的请求。
而且双方目前在聊一个协议框架，里面提到了霍尔木兹海峡的开放和伊朗的核威胁问题。
说白了，上头虽然还在掰扯，但眼下这节骨眼上，大家没真想立马干起来，算是按了个“暂停键”。
虽然美伊这档子事咱圈内人都知道，之前也签过协议最后又废了，来回拉扯不是一次两次了。但至少在当下的短时间里，这块地缘政治的石头稍微挪开了一点。
只要这个当口真不打仗，短期油价就不会因为战争恐慌暴涨，通胀预期就能稍微歇一歇，这对整体风险资产起码是个好事。
紧接着，微策略那个“砸盘雷”，也被正主亲手拆了。
微策略老板迈克尔·塞勒亲自跑出来回应，一上来就把造谣的脸给打了：这特么根本不是什么新消息，纯粹是旧闻重提！
塞勒说得清清楚楚，那个所谓的出售授权，早在6月29号就已经作为公司资本管理框架的一部分宣布过了。
而且他专门强调了三点：第一，这个授权只是“允许”，根本没要求实际出售任何比特币；第二，微策略最近绝对没有宣布过新的出售授权；第三，人家不仅不卖，还放话了——公司预计长期将保持比特币净买入状态！
听听，什么叫真正的死多头？不仅没打算抛，还要继续买！
这俩消息一落地，今早的盘面直接开启反攻模式。BTC大饼瞬间从62200的深坑里拉回来，一路冲上了63300上方；SOL从70拉到73。ETH以太也跟着从1820反弹到了1870多。
这波“半夜砸坑，早上回血”的戏码，算是给所有在币圈混的兄弟上了一课。
半夜那种莫名其妙的恐慌砸盘，十有八九是被假消息或者过度解读带乱了节奏。很多人一慌，直接在最低点把筹码给交了。结果睡一觉醒来，全都涨回来了，活生生割在了地板上。
就像微策略这波，稍微等几个小时，等大佬出来说句话，真相就大白了。
现在宏观层面，美伊那点事虽然不能指望一劳永逸，但眼下短期是有所缓和了；币圈内部，那个“抛售威胁”也被彻底证伪。
这俩事放在一块儿，至少短期来看，后续再次炒作签订协议这些信息，还是能带动一下盘面往上冲一下。 我找到了一个地址，他每次操作都精准踩点，这次他又动了
昨晚睡前刷链上，看到一个巨鲸的HYPE多单，7215万美金
触发价47.6美元，就挂在下面
我盯着那个数字看了好久
然后你猜怎么着
今天一早就看到新闻，HYPE又遭亿元解押，这次还有日企首度入场
一边是大户的多单悬在清算线上
一边是解押的筹码往市场上砸
两股力量对着干，谁赢谁输真不好说
我把Tether的财报也翻出来了
季度盈利15亿美金，黄金储备增到146吨
稳定币龙头在闷声赚钱，现金奶牛还在长胖
这说明整个行业的底层生意是好的
谷歌那边也大手笔，给AI数据中心债务兜底，换两成股权
传统巨头在重仓押注AI基础设施，钱是往这个方向流的
链上异动我最怕那种看不懂的
这种看得懂的多空对撞，反而心里有数
所以我的判断是：HYPE这种多空绞杀的票，散户别去接飞刀。解押加清算双压没消化完之前，看戏比进场舒服。真要布局，Tether这种赚钱机器和AI基建叙事更稳
翻了一下今天的盘子，还有几个点挺有意思的：
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场
解押是明牌利空，日企入场是暗牌利好，两个消息撞在一起，价格才没崩。说明有增量资金在接，但接不接得住要看后续量能。我自己的做法是先观望，等解押压力消化完再看
#Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨
稳定币发行商一个季度赚15亿，比很多上市公司都猛。黄金储备增到146吨，等于把资产端做实了。这种公司利润是现金，不是空气，行业基本盘是真的在变厚
#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底，换取两成股
谷歌拿担保换股权，本质是AI军备竞赛里的深度绑定。巨头真金白银下场，说明AI基建不是炒作是刚需。这条叙事线能撑住长期估值，我回调的时候会当定投窗口分批接
$HYPE $USDT #鲸鱼 #链上I usually don't look at this indicator, but today I almost switched it on under some mysterious influence, only to find something was off
In the morning, I hold a bun in one hand and check the funding rate with the other
BTC still has positive tips, and ETH is also positive
SOL is actually negative, negative!
This kind of differentiation is really rare in everyday life
Then guess what
I quickly pulled out the candlesticks
BTC 62,924, down 0.05%, basically flat
ETH 1852, down 0.75%
SOL 72.4, down 0.93%
Negative rates actually fell the most, indicating that some bears have already taken profits and closed out their positions
Combined with the claim that bearish sentiment is weakening, sentiment is neutral to weak, not panic
Technically, BTC is grinding between the high of 63,150 and the low of 62,268
No breakthrough, no breakthrough, just waiting
ETH's eleventh anniversary reminds me that this chain has been running nonstop for eleven years
The foundation of the on-chain ecosystem remains, and a decline is actually a long-term area to gradually connect
Strategy stopped buying on dips, resulting in a Q2 paper loss of 8.2 billion
The previous "buy when it drops" machine has stopped, losing a bottom-supporting force in the short term
So my judgment is: rate differentiation shows the market is quietly turning, not just a one-sided sell-off. BTC will continue to fluctuate as long as it doesn't break 62,200. Negative SOL rates may actually signal bear exhaustion, so don't rush to chase shorts
I glanced at today's news page and had a few points I wanted to mention:
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
Eleven years without interruption—this phrase is a golden brand in the crypto community. The mainnet gets more stable as it ages, with DeFi and staking as a foundation on it. During pullbacks, those who take long-term positions are actually willing to increase their holdings, which is one of the reasons I dare to take ETH
#Coldcard漏洞发酵, the number of affected aircraft has expanded
Hardware wallet failures are even scarier than exchange issues, because self-custody relies entirely on device security. CZ's words are very straightforward: fixing vulnerabilities won't save wallets that have already been generated. I now put large amounts in a cold wallet, and only small amounts in a hot wallet, spreading out my holdings
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
Previously, the market assumed it would drop and buy in, but now that the machine has stopped, it really lacks a short-term bottom-line support. But on the flip side, if it stops, it means the company is recalculating its accounts. Once it understands and re-enters, that will be a more worthwhile signal
$BTC $ETH #技术面 #资金费率Giao dịch cổ phiếu token hóa tăng vọt trong tháng 7, nhưng phần lớn đến từ một token Khối lượng giao dịch cổ phiếu token hóa tăng 288% trong tháng 7, cho thấy sự quan tâm ngày càng lớn đối với tài sản được đưa lên blockchain. Tuy nhiên, dữ liệu cho thấy phần lớn mức tăng này đến từ QQQB. Nếu loại trừ token này, tổng khối lượng giao dịch trong tháng 7 chỉ còn khoảng 2,03 tỷ USD, thấp hơn khoảng 30% so với tháng 6. Theo mình, đây là dấu hiệu cho thấy thị trường token hóa vẫn đang trong giai đoạn đ每次看到这种新闻我就知道要出大事了
早上一睁眼，以色列那边说局势到了顶点，濒临爆发边缘
美政府直接建议中东的公民准备撤离
我咖啡都没喝，先打开行情
然后你猜怎么着
BTC 62924，24小时只跌了0.05%
导弹悬在头顶，大饼就是不动
再看宏观这一摊子事
30年期美债收益率创了19年新高，一度摸到5.27%
美联储9月加息的概率被定价到67%
PCE倒是转负了，通胀降温，可长端收益率还在往上冲
债市信的是油价和内需，不是CPI
这里面的逻辑其实很拧巴
一边是地缘风险拉满，黄金石油涨
一边是美债收益率新高，抽着风险资产的估值
加密夹在中间，居然稳住了
ETF那边昨天净流出2.65亿美金，累计还是793亿
机构没跑光，就是观望
所以我的判断是：这种地缘加利率双压的日子，BTC能横在六万二上方就是强势
别追涨，等它自己选方向，横盘末端往往就是变盘
正好今天还有几个热点值得一说：
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
5.27%这个数字，上次出现还是2007年。长端利率新高意味着无风险收益变高，风险资产估值整体承压，但BTC昨天几乎没怎么跌，说明场内筹码比想象中稳，恐慌还没蔓延开
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
地缘这根弦越绷越紧，以色列说濒临爆发，美政府让公民撤离。真打起来黄金石油会先动，BTC短期被情绪砸一下也正常，但每次这种砸完都是分批接的机会，别跟着一起慌
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅
通胀数据转冷，加息预期反而升温，这就是典型的预期博弈。PCE转负短期利好风险资产，但长端收益率不配合，行情就只能继续磨。我只做低吸不做追高，仓位别一次打满
$BTC $ETH #宏观 #地缘Crypto equities are catching more pain than spot prices suggest. With BTC near $63k, companies that hold or earn in crypto face reporting headaches as portfolio marks compress from Q1 highs. The equity is a leveraged read on a moving target, and right now the target is adrift.
The interesting tell is that BTC itself is not selling off. Spot is flat, and Tether just posted a $1.5B quarter while quietly adding to gold reserves. If the underlying asset were truly broken, you would see more pressure there. What you are seeing instead is the equity wrapper being de-rated, not the asset. That distinction matters for how you size exposure into the next macro print.
Not advice, just analysis.
#OKXOrbit瑞银最新的这份报告，数据挺扎眼的。说白了，就是AI这波浪潮，终于要实实在在地砸到存储行业头上了，而且砸得还特别猛。 根据他们的预测，到2027年，全球那11家最大的云服务商，加在一起的资本开支会达到1.04万亿美元。这里面，有73%，也就是7613亿美元，全都得花在存储上。 你可以对比一下2025年，他们在存储上的花费才728亿美元。两年时间，涨了快十倍。这增长速度，已经不是线性增长了，是直接往上跳。$SNDK 具体到三类产品，差别还挺有意思 HBM这块，2025年花了240亿，预计到2027年要涨到1444亿。这东西贵，平均每GB的价格从1.52美元涨到了2.77美元。NAND也会涨，从187亿到1681亿，但单价还是很便宜，每GB从7美分涨到27美分。$MU 最夸张的是DDR。2025年花了302亿，2027年预计要花4489亿，单价也从0.43美元直接飙到2.30美元，涨了四倍多。这波涨价，一方面是AI服务器确实太吃内存了，另一方面也说明，在AI这个新需求面前，过去那种“内存够用就行”的逻辑被彻底推翻了。 不过，钱花得出去，东西不一定造得出来。瑞银也提到了，产能是个大问题。晶#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale
Earnings Week Preview: When Tech Giants Deliver Their "Guidance" Answers, Can Circle Become the Last Ballast Stone for the Crypto Industry?
This week, the US stock market will witness four major "draws"—big data giant Palantir after market close on August 3; chip giants AMD and SpaceX pioneer on August 4 (Note: SpaceX is a private company; this should be due to market attention or misinformation; it may refer to other underlying stocks, but original information is respected), and stablecoin issuer Circle on August 5 before market opening. In this scheduling event, Circle, as the "central bank-level" player in the crypto world, was placed in the finale position, carrying a lot of meaning.
The last round of tech giants' earnings reports gave the market a vivid lesson: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all exceeded revenue expectations, but their stock prices were worlds apart—Microsoft's market value soared 15.5% in a single day, Amazon rose over 9% in after-hours trading, Meta fell over 9%, and Apple fell over 4%. Numbers themselves are no longer the key to winning or losing; the real dividing line lies in next quarter's earnings guidance. The market today has a high tolerance for the "past," but a harsh certainty about the "future"—whoever can present a clear growth path amid high interest rates and the AI arms race will win the applause of capital.
Returning to the crypto track, three early tests have been delivered: Coinbase's revenue fell about 18.5% year-on-year, Robinhood's crypto business revenue shrank by nearly 40%, and Tether demonstrated its money-printing machine-like resilience with a net operating profit of $1.5 billion. These three report cards paint a picture of the industry's mix of warmth and cold—trading income is suppressed by regulation and liquidity, while stablecoin issuers have managed to withstand the trend thanks to US dollar interest rate dividends and on-chain settlement demand.
Now, as the issuer of USDC, Circle is about to step into the spotlight. Its appeal goes far beyond quarterly revenue or reserve asset gains. What the market truly cares about is whether Circle can present a convincing narrative among IPO expectations, compliance costs, and market share competition (as a challenge to USDT). Especially now, with the U.S. Treasury yield curve still attractive, the duration management and interest income flexibility of Circle's reserve portfolio will directly determine the sustainability of its "bank-like" business model. Moreover, the monetization progress of its cross-border payments and developer services is the value anchor that distinguishes it from pure trading platforms.
If Coinbase and Robinhood reflect the thermometer of retail investors' trading enthusiasm, and Tether reveals the dark river of offshore dollar liquidity, then Circle's answer will be the touchstone to test whether compliant stablecoins can build an independent moat amid the rift between traditional finance and DeFi. Investors won't expect it to replicate Tether's high profits, but they will closely monitor its reserve transparency, regulatory response strategies, and paying customer growth—these are the "guiding factors" that determine its IPO valuation center.
Overall, although the four reports fall across different fields, their core is the same: Palantir's AI commercialization turning point, AMD's computing power competition with rivals, and Circle's differentiated strategy in the stablecoin red ocean—all answer the same question—where is your next growth engine? For the crypto side, Circle's grand finale may not cause dramatic price fluctuations (if referring to traditional tech stocks), but it will provide institutional funds with a cutting-edge reference for whether they dare to increase their holdings in compliant crypto assets.
The answer is about to be revealed—let's wait and see.Over the past two days, the market has challenged the usual geopolitical playbook. Tensions in the Middle East rose, including reports of US embassy evacuations, yet $BTC failed to rally. Later, optimism increased after Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes, but Bitcoin didn't sell off either.
That suggests geopolitical headlines are not the primary force driving crypto prices right now. Instead, traders appear to be paying much closer attention to factors such as US dollar liquidity, monetary policy expectations, institutional flows, and overall market positioning.
This doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin has completely decoupled from geopolitical risk. Major geopolitical events can still influence markets, especially if they materially affect global liquidity, energy prices, or investor risk appetite. However, in the current environment, war-related headlines alone seem to be having a much smaller impact than many expected.
For now, it may be more productive to focus on liquidity conditions and macroeconomic catalysts rather than using geopolitical news as a standalone reason to enter or exit crypto positions. Markets can always shift, so staying flexible is more valuable than relying on a single narrative.BTC 대 알트 상대 강도, 이번 사이클의 핵심 분기점은 결국 토크노믹스다 저평가처럼 보이는 저가 토큰이 정말 저평가인지, 아니면 유통량 확대라는 함정인지 어떻게 구분할 수 있을까? 저가 토큰의 함정은 기술이 아니라 공급 구조에 있다. 언뜻 싸 보이는 가격은 대개 전체 공급량 대비 유통 비중이 낮은 FDV 높은 프로젝트에서 발생한다. 문제는 대규모 언락 일정이 도래할 때다. VC 물량과 팀 물량이 시장에 풀리며 매도 압력이 구조적으로 형성되고, 펀더멘털이 양호한 프로젝트조차 가격이 장기 횡보하거나 하락한다. 이미 ARB, OP, STRK, ZK, BLAST, MANTA, ALT, DYM, TIA, SUI, APT, SEI, PYTH, JUP, W, EIGEN, REZ, ETHFI 등에서 동일한 패턴이 반복됐다. 이 목록의 공통점은 높은 FDV, 낮은 초기 유통량, 그리고 지속적인 언락 압력이다. 핵심은 시장이 이미 이 구조를 인지하고 있다는 점이다. 자금은 토크노믹스 리스크가 낮은 If the global market crashes next week, $BTC and $ETH will be the first to be drained
If you hold BTC and ETH in your portfolio, the thing to watch next week is not the candlestick chart, but Japan.
The transmission speed of this event may be faster than you think — Japan sells US Treasuries → US Treasury yields surge → global risk asset valuations are pressured → crypto is the first to bleed. This chain is already in motion, and next week is the trigger point.
Why crypto stands at the center of the storm
The logic is simple: BTC and ETH do not generate cash flow; their prices rely entirely on liquidity expectations. When global funds tighten, interest-bearing assets can still hold on with yields, but crypto lives entirely on "the next buyer paying a higher price" — when a risk-off wave hits, crypto is always the first to be dumped and the last to be picked up.
Currently, the market is already fragile. BTC has been stuck in the 62,000-64,000 range for two months, with a slowly declining center of gravity; ETH is struggling repeatedly between 1,820-1,900. Above are all trapped positions, below is the faint 60,000 support level. If the global market is drained again at this time, BTC and ETH have no safety cushion.
And the syringe for the bloodletting is already in Japan's hands.
Japan's current operation is the largest "fire sale" in history
Let's review the timeline of what happened in the past few days:
July 30: The Japanese Ministry of Finance spent 8.45 trillion yen (about $53 billion) in a single day to buy yen, setting a record for Japan's single-day intervention. Within one hour, USD/JPY plummeted from 163 to 157.96.
July 31: Japan intervened for the second consecutive day; a representative from the New York Fed, on behalf of the US Treasury, sold euros to buy yen — the first joint intervention by the US and Japan in nearly 30 years.
As of now: Japan has consumed about $130 billion in foreign exchange reserves. The note with "buy 5-10 billion yen" written by Bassett was photographed and spread worldwide — even the US had to step in.
Why does the US personally rescue the yen? Because the bulk of Japan's foreign exchange reserves are US Treasuries. This $130 billion consumption essentially means selling US Treasuries to exchange for liquidity.
What is the problem? The problem is the yen cannot be saved. The root cause of yen depreciation is the US-Japan interest rate gap (Japan 1.0% vs US 3.5-3.75%). As long as the carry trade does not disappear, the yen will continue to be under pressure, and intervention can only create a pulse rebound. Historically, after every intervention, the yen continues to depreciate, and Japan's foreign exchange reserves get thinner.
How does this chain transmit to crypto?
Japan continues intervention → consumes US Treasury reserves → US Treasuries are continuously sold → US Treasury yields are forced higher.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is now above 5.2%, the highest since 2007. If Japan massively sells, this number will be even higher. Rising US Treasury yields mean what? They mean risk-free returns increase, and money worldwide will prefer to lie in US Treasuries earning interest rather than gambling on risk assets.
This is the distance from Japan to BTC — not geopolitical conflict, not war, but pure liquidity contraction. When US Treasury yields hit new highs, BTC's appeal declines, capital outflows accelerate, and rebounds are suppressed.
Next Monday (August 3), Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki will officially announce US-Japan joint action, and intervention is expected to intensify. Each intensification is a new round of US Treasury selling and a new round of bleeding in the crypto market.
Watch three signals closely
US Treasury yields: If the 30-year yield breaks above 5.2%, it is a direct liquidity tightening signal; crypto has no escape.
USD/JPY: After intervention, it briefly rebounded to 157, now falling back near 160. If it approaches 163 again, Japan will definitely intensify intervention, and US Treasury pressure will simultaneously increase.
BTC 60,000 level: The global volatility transmits to crypto; BTC's 60,000 is the last psychological defense line. If it doesn't hold, a new round of panic selling will begin.
The risk next week is not "if it will come," but "it has already come, and the market has not fully priced it in."
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#日韩同日抛售美元护汇
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 The most expensive tuition in this round isn't buying the wrong coin, but not understanding the chip structure before buying. Have you ever calculated how much of that "cheap" coin you hold is actually in circulation? On the surface, this knockoff season seems lively, with AI-driven tokens doubling in one day and the RWA sector stirring. But if you look at on-chain data, you'll notice a subtle misalignment: the stock of funds on exchanges hasn't really increased much; many of the rapid gains are driven by low-circulation, high-locking units self-promoted. To put it bluntly, what people are chasing might be the same batch of "beautiful-looking" chips. Recently, I've had a habit of watching the market and always ask three questions first: what's the circulation rate? When will the next batch be unlocked? Where is the cost price of the unlocked? If you don't look at these, no matter how beautiful the candlestick is, it's just someone else drawing it for you to see. Don't forget names like ARB, OP, and STRK—when they launched, which of them wasn't a star project? And what happened? Once massive unlocks occur, prices are directly crushed, and retail investors become the exit liquidity for VCs and teams. So what is smart money doing? The path I've observed is quite clear: - Funds are hiding in "fully circulating" or "near-fully circulating" memes, such as PEPE, WIF, BONK, at least without the unlocked sword hanging overhead. - DeFi and RWA sectors have been picked up again. Projects like ONDO, AAVE, PENDLE, which have real protocol revenue, have relatively solid chip structures. - The AI/DePIN track remains popular, but TAO and FE are still popularDon't be fooled by the overall market stability! The current level of danger in the AI bubble is completely different from all previous themes
Recently, many people have seen memory chips plunge and hedge funds stepping on pitfalls, only to find that the market barely dropped. The S&P is only 1.6 points below its peak, and even the equal-weighted index has hit new highs. Many people think the market isn't risky, but there's actually a fatal misconception here.
Looking back at the more than a decade of US stock market history, we've seen too many scenarios where a single sector is speculated and then crashes. 3D printing, clean energy, and crypto concepts have successively emerged from bubble markets. After the bubbles burst, individual stocks have fallen horribly. SK Hynix has dropped more than half at most, while Strategy has cut 83% from its peak, but none of these have stirred up the broader market.
The logic behind this is simple: previous hype in these themes rarely relied heavily on debt financing, and losses were ultimately borne by shareholders themselves. The banking system was not deeply bound, and the financial foundation was solid. Money flows out from a ruined theme and can spark a new market cycle, repeating the cycle.
But today's AI track has completely shattered this safety framework. Industry insiders estimate that over the next four years, $7 trillion will be invested in data center-related investments, and more and more companies are now borrowing to expand computing power and build data centers.
Once the actual output brought by AI cannot support such massive capital investment, the destructive power of a bubble burst will be completely different. Previously, only local sectors suffered losses; this time, debt will be transmitted along the industry chain into the banking system. At that point, no sector will be unaffected, and the entire market will have to bear the shock.
Even in our crypto world, we can compare this to the hash power theme built purely on lending and the niche concept hyped by own funds. The destructive power of two bubble bursts is completely on the same level. Would you be prioritizing high-debt, heavily invested but revenue-generating targets in recent investments?#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
During the session, the rate reached as high as 5.24% (a high since 2007), marking a very typical bearish steep rally: the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, the short-term 2-year yield slightly declined, but the 30-year ultra-long bond surged sharply.
1. Why did long-term bonds surge instead of expectations for rate hikes?
1. Renewed inflation concerns (short-term trigger)
The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, oil prices have surged this month, and the market is concerned about a rebound in energy inflation, with long-term inflation expectations rising. Investors holding 30-year long-term bonds need higher yields to offset inflation risk, collectively selling off long-term bonds, causing prices to fall → yields to rise.
2. Severe internal divisions within the Federal Reserve (core catalyst)
At the July meeting, three members voted in favor of a 25 basis point hike, a rare occurrence in recent years. Market interpretation: Once inflation rebounds, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates going forward; Higher for Longer.
3. U.S. fiscal pressure (structural long-term negative news)
Persistently high fiscal deficits and massive long-term government bonds are continuously issued; Overseas central banks and institutions are showing declining willingness to buy, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand for long-term bonds, so yields must be raised to attract buyers.
4. Term premiums soar
Investors are demanding additional risk premiums to hedge against inflation, debt, and geopolitical uncertainties over the next 30 years, with this rally mainly driven by term premiums.
2. Direct impact on various assets
1. Growth stocks/technology stocks (Nasdaq, AI track) are negative
Forward profits account for a high proportion of profits, and rising discount rates directly compress valuations; high-valuation sectors are most prone to pullbacks. Value-focused high-dividend sectors are relatively resilient to declines.
2. Gold and silver (non-interest-bearing assets) are under pressure
Holding gold yields no interest, the risk-free yield on U.S. Treasuries rises, and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases; The only exception: when a geopolitical panic erupts, safe-haven logic outweighs interest rate logic.
3. High-risk cryptocurrency (BTC/ETH) assets
Historically, there is a high degree of negative correlation. Liquidity expectations tightened, risk appetite declined, and funds tended to withdraw from highly volatile assets.
4. Crude Oil Differentiation
Two logical battles: rising interest rates suppress aggregate demand; Geopolitical conflicts support supply. Recently, geopolitical inflation logic has prevailed, leading to stronger oil prices.
5. US Dollar: Relatively strong
High long-term yields attract global capital inflows into the U.S., supporting the U.S. dollar index.
3. Key observation signals that need to be closely monitored next
1. US CPI and core PCE inflation data
If inflation rebounds again, the 30-year yield is likely to challenge previous highs; Inflation continues to cool, and long-term debt pressure eases.
2. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials
Attention is focused on whether several hawkish lawmakers continue to rally interest rate hikes.
3. Middle East situation & oil price range
Brent holding above $95–100 will continue to push up inflation expectations.
4. U.S. Treasury auction results
The 30-year government bond auction subscription ratio is weak = ongoing supply-demand pressure, yields are easy to rise but hard to fall.两万亿美元剧烈洗牌 六大科技巨头财报一出，资金彻底分出强弱阵营
这周六大美股科技龙头发布财报，市场市值来回波动接近2万亿，看完涨跌数据就能看懂当下机构唯一的选股标准：AI投入能不能兑现真实收益。
Alphabet、亚马逊、微软是本轮行情里的绝对赢家，三家总市值合计暴涨1.5万亿。微软市值增加超6000亿，亚马逊、谷歌各自涨超4000亿，拉开了和其余三家公司的差距。
另一边则是惨烈缩水。苹果哪怕营收、iPhone销量全都达标，只是下季度营收增速不及预期，叠加存储芯片短缺拖累供给，周五股价大跌7%，市值蒸发3500亿；Meta亏损850亿、特斯拉小幅缩水70亿，三者同步承压。
分化的核心逻辑全落在云业务与AI开支上。亚马逊AWS二季度同比大涨37%，创下近四年新高，即便上调全年资本开支到2200亿，依旧收获15%涨幅；微软同步大涨15%，反观疯狂烧钱却没有匹配营收增长的Meta，直接大跌8%，市场对AI投入回报的容忍度已经降到临界点。
投行Jefferies给出测算，未来12个月科技大厂AI总投入将要逼近8000亿。现在市场早已不再争论AI有没有需求，所有人都在权衡，企业长期利润能不能扛住这种巨额投入。
这套估值逻辑同样适用于加密赛道，只堆砌算力投入、没有落地现金流的项目会持续被资金抛弃，能靠AI、云叙事产生稳定收入的标的，才会迎来长线资金布局。
大家觉得接下来市场还会持续收紧对高投入无回报企业的估值吗？The tide of wind has completely reversed! Now, AI companies that simply burn money and won't buy in are simply not buying it
After reviewing the earnings reports from several tech giants, I've figured out the current bottom line for institutional stock selection. The market no longer blindly chases all AI concepts but has started to precisely distinguish good from bad.
Meta hit a big trap this time, with revenue guidance failing to meet market expectations, and free cash flow dropping to its lowest level in recent years. The core issue is that it spends money on AI without regard to cost, and expenses are completely uncontrollable. After the earnings were released, the market dropped 8 points—in other words, capital is using the decline to warn it.
The trends of Microsoft and Amazon stand in stark contrast. Microsoft surged nearly 16%, with its market value soaring by 450 billion in a single day, setting a new single-day growth record. Not only did the cloud business deliver its best growth in four years, but management also made it clear that this year they will control capital investment and stop blind expansion. Amazon surged 15% simultaneously, with its cloud business growth exceeding expectations and easing concerns about the high AI investment being hard to recoup.
Senior options analyst Bob Long is very straightforward: all kinds of capital have long grown tired of the big companies' unrestrained spending behavior. Companies that can balance business growth and control expenses are the current direction for capital accumulation. Following this trend, upstream AI hardware and technology supporting companies with actual implementation revenue are continuously receiving financial support.
In our crypto world, it's actually the same principle: those projects that only paint big promises, constantly consume funds without real income, rarely see a market trend going forward; Only computing power and AI-related targets that are truly implemented and continuously generate returns will have long-term capital lying in waiting.
Have you noticed lately that whether in the US stock market or the crypto market, purely storytelling stocks are getting harder and harder to rise?Weekend funds priced in advance! Polarization in memory chips, US tech stocks have shown strength against the trend
Traditional financial markets were closed over the weekend, but on-chain Nasdaq Trade.xyz perpetual contracts gave clear price expectations for Monday's opening, marking a complete split in the global storage sector.
Across the weekend, US tech stocks saw slight gains across the board. Leading computing storage companies such as Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk, Intel, and AMD all posted above Friday's closing prices. Market expectations for long-term demand for AI hardware remained unchanged, and short-term risk aversion did not spread to the US tech sector.
In contrast, Korean storage companies are under tremendous pressure. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to decline over the weekend, and based on current on-chain quotes, the market opened down over 5% on Monday. As core global storage suppliers, the weakness of these two Korean manufacturers also reflects divergences in funding over short-term storage supply and demand cycles.
This divergence logic will also be transmitted to crypto market-related hash rate and storage narrative coins. US tech provides market support for sentiment, but the decline in Korean storage stocks will suppress speculative activity in cyclical sectors, making it difficult for the market to break out of a strong one-sided rally.
How long do you think this round of differentiation in the storage sector will last?Well-known trader: Bitcoin is still in a range-bound range and approaching the bear market low
Well-known trader Killa wrote that as BTC enters a new monthly cycle, the market has already formed a strong bearish narrative, making a bullish reaction at the beginning of this month more likely.
He pointed out that, based on previous trends, when BTC enters a new phase amid obvious bearish sentiment, there is usually a reversal of the trend. This pattern may only fail when major trends are about to shift, such as last November, as well as in February and June this year.
Killa believes BTC is still in a range-bound range and is close to the bear market low, so there are two possibilities: one is that the price last fell below $57,000; Second, it began to rebound upward this month and continued to maintain range-bound trading.
Even if BTC is expected to continue falling, a 2% to 4% rise earlier this month would better fit the current market structure.SpaceX plunged about 28% in the latest trading day. I made a profit from this short position, but I didn't dare to take any greed.
Previously, the stock price was trading sideways near $113. Seeing the weak rebound and the pressure from earnings reports and unlocking approaching, I tried opening a small short position. After the big drop, I already closed out most of it, because the more profit you make from short selling, the higher the risk of short squeezing. Market data shows that the number of shares lent out now accounts for a high proportion of free float, which is not a suitable position to continue heavy positions and chase short positions.
The company expects to disclose its results next week, after which up to about 1.37 billion shares may gradually be eligible for sale. In the short term, first observe whether the double-digit area can form support; only if the $100 level holds above is there a chance for a recovery.
The rocket's test flight was nearly perfect, but the stock price was in free fall—this is the difference between technology and valuation. Do you dare to accept a rebound that dropped nearly 30% now, or wait for the real implementation of the lock-up rebound?
$SPCX #SpaceX #合约交易
This does not constitute investment advice.Fundamental Research Report $TEAM / Atlassian (NASDAQ· SaaS/Collaboration) $101.02 (24h +2.95%)
To summarize: Atlassian ($TEAM) has an overall score of 56/100, with a rating focused on narrative over implementation. The business fundamentals are mainly external payments, and the market value-to-income multiple remains within a reasonable range.
Company Overview: Atlassian ($TEAM) is listed on NASDAQ, focusing on the SaaS/collaboration sector. In plain language: Jira + Confluence. Benchmarked against CRM and MSFT. Business growth depends on order delivery and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match the intensity of capital expenditures. Macro interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation center. It does not involve token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product launch: Officially operational with paid usage, revenue can be verified by SEC 10-Q/10-K, financial data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, valid submissions in the past 90 days Not found times.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. The stock's 24-hour turnover is $2.69M, with outstanding shares and market capitalization structure yet to be confirmed. The core is whether revenue growth rate and gross margin match stock price expectations. On the revenue side, operating income is $6.19B (latest financial report/consensus estimate), gross profit is estimated based on industry averages to be supplemented, net profit is to be recognized in 10-K/10-Q, and shareholder income is based on buybacks and dividends. Making money for US companies does not necessarily mean token holders are making money; BTC-related assets like MSTR/COIN need to separate BTC floating gains. On the code side, 90-day valid submissions not found, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: Atlassian ($TEAM) is the listed entity, with shareholder structure subject to disclosure in 13F/10-K. Primary cooperation is based on IR announcements as Grade A evidence, media mentions and industry conferences are Grade C/D, and are not used solely as commercial grounds.
Valuation anchor, circulating market cap $25.63B, valued at P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocking. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) need to be split into BTC exposure and main business revaluation. Let's look at it together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Atlassian $25.63B, CRM $150.71B, MSFT $3.45T. For FDV, Atlassian is undisclosed, with a CRM of $150.71B and an MSFT of $3.45T. In terms of annualized revenue, Atlassian is $6.19B, CRM $42.83B, and MSFT $331.84B. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Atlassian has not disclosed this, CRM has not disclosed, and MSFT has not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, current market cap $25.63B, P/S (consensus revenue) 4.1x. Cyclical stocks (mining companies/GPUs) use cyclical adjustments for P/E. Pessimistic outlook at $25.63B halved, neutral remains within the range, optimistic outlook on P/S expansion of 20-50%. Final judgment: Solid fundamentals (score 56/100). Equity value anchors revenue, net profit, and buyback dividends. Circulating market capitalization is reasonable or low relative to fundamentals, FDV is close to MC, no major unlock, and selling pressure is manageable. Potential pitfalls: Rising macro interest rates suppressing valuations, AI capex investment falling short of expectations, regulatory litigation (SEC/DoL). Key points to look at next: revenue growth rate, gross margin, buyback amount, order backlog, and changes in institutional holdings (13F). The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments.
#基本面研报 #美股 #研究 #OKXOrbit筹码完成血腥交接，散户恐慌抛售落幕，外资收下带血筹码，都是一样的剧本，
七月底，外资单日大手笔买入近6万亿韩元，散户反手卖出近10万亿韩元，创出今年最大单日分歧，也影响到$SHIB 大幅上涨。
反弹到来，被套散户解套离场、融资盘降杠杆、杠杆ETF集中赎回，散户后续进场资金枯竭，风险意愿大跌。
经历大跌消化估值与杠杆风险后，外资趁机低位买回半导体龙头。
市场完成一轮筹码大换手，散户去杠杆离场，机构资金重新接盘。
大量背负融资负债的交易者主动削减杠杆、降低持仓风险，还有不少资金选择赎回半导体杠杆ETF，进一步加剧卖出体量。
经历此前接连下跌、保证金追缴、强制平仓的轮番冲击后，韩国散户可动用的增量入市资金大幅缩水，再也无力继续逆势扛单。
筹码易手已经完成🌹🌹🌹#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
I am Cige. SpaceX's first financial report hasn't been released yet, but the stock price has already been crushed. $108.37, down nearly 20% from the IPO issue price of $135, and almost halved from the June high of $225.64.
The real test is the financial report and the unlocking
The first quarterly report since listing will be released after the market closes on August 4, and the real test comes after the report. On August 6, about 911.5 million eligible restricted shares will be available for sale, which, at recent stock prices, amounts to over $100 billion, exceeding the current public float. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, and Elon Musk himself will not participate in selling, but the selling pressure from early investors and employees is real. Starlink's revenue grew 50% year-over-year last year, but the company overall lost nearly $5 billion last year. Whether the financial report can provide a clear profitability path for Starlink will determine if the unlocking can be absorbed.
Impact on BTC
The SpaceX unlocking itself has no direct relation to BTC, but market sentiment will be transmitted. If SPCX's financial report disappoints combined with unlocking sell-offs, Nasdaq's risk appetite may be suppressed, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, will face pressure simultaneously. If the financial report exceeds expectations and the unlocking is digested by the market, tech stock sentiment will recover, and BTC will benefit. SpaceX represents a leading asset in the private space economy, and its price performance will affect the valuation anchor of the entire growth stock sector.
What to expect next
Before August 4, there will be a tug-of-war around the financial report and unlocking, with unclear direction, so observation is advised. If the financial report provides a clear profitability path for Starlink, the impact of unlocking will be much smaller. If the report is mediocre or below expectations, the $100 billion supply hitting the market will have an obvious outcome. The founder's lock-up is a good signal, but the scale of this unlocking pressure cannot be offset by one person's lock-up.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 市场里出现了一幅很拧巴的画面：
美国6月PCE环比录得2020年以来首次负增长，30年期美债收益率却冲到5.27%，创2007年以来新高。
通胀数据在降温，愿意锁定30年期限的资金反而要求更高回报。债市显然在为更远的风险收费。
7月油价单月累计上涨约20%，美国二季度内需创两年新高，最新FOMC会议又出现3票支持加息。再叠加长期国债供给和期限溢价，单月PCE的回落很难压住市场对未来通胀、财政负担和利率路径的担忧。
币圈暂时没有被这根长债利率直接压下去。
截至16:33，$BTC 约63,391美元，24小时上涨0.45%，波动区间为62,275—63,634美元；$ETH 约1,873美元，上涨0.22%，区间为1,822—1,885美元。主流币收回了部分跌幅，但反弹幅度依然克制。
5.27%的30年期美债，相当于给全球风险资产重新抬高了门槛。BTC没有传统现金流估值模型，可新增配置资金仍要在美元利率、融资成本和波动风险之间作选择。
这类宏观压力通常不会在当天砸出结论。它更像一块逐渐加重的天花板，悄悄改变每次反弹能够延伸的高度。
如果30年期收益率继续站上5.3%，8月市场要面对的将是一个直接问题：在超过5%的长期美元回报面前，还有多少新增资金愿意为加密资产的波动支付溢价？
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 If this round is due to AI crashes, consider investing in Nasdaq through installment investments.
After it goes viral, someone will add to their positions, and once they do, they get rich.
Buffett has spent his whole life making big money by buying at the bottom in batches after the US stock market crashes. During Black Monday in 1987, the global stock market crash caused the Dow Jones to plunge 22.6% in a single day. Global stock markets collapsed, and the entire market fled at any cost, producing high quality
Consumer stocks were wrongly killed. Buffett reduced his positions early at the peak, holding huge amounts of cash for safe havens. Buffett didn't buy the dip on the day of the crash; when market sentiment remained low in 1988, he invested $1.3 billion to build a position in Coca-Cola, acquiring 7% of total shares.
In three years, this investment rose from 1.3 billion to 3.75 billion, and over the next thirty years, Coca-Cola became Berkshire's core heavyweight, with annualized returns consistently exceeding 18%. Then came the 2008 subprime financial crisis, when US stocks were cut in half, investment banks were on the verge of bankruptcy, Wall Street liquidity dried up, financial giants were on the verge of collapse, and the entire market was in a liquidity panic, with no one daring to take over. One week after Lehman's collapse, Buffett subscribed for $5 billion in Goldman Sachs preferred shares (fixed 10% annualized dividend + low-priced common stock subscription); $3 billion in GE preferred shares; Bank of America preferred shares after another $5 billion bottom-fishing plunge in 2011.
In 2008, nearly 28 billion yuan was invested at a low level to allocate quality assets, and in the following decade, the US stock market saw huge profits. In summary, a sharp drop in US stocks = a discount on quality assets, but Buffett didn't go all-in at the moment of a crash, buying in batches and keeping enough cash; Only buy leading stocks with stable moats and won't go bankrupt, avoiding junk stocks even if cheap; Most retail investors rushed to cut losses during the plunge, while top funds gradually allocate in batches as prices fall. This is the core logic of capital stratification after a major drop.(ETH) 2000
#SpaceXUnlockLooms 1/2
Let’s keep it simple: ETH is the biggest high-beta macro play for August 2026. It doesn’t trade on technicals right now — it trades on Fed pricing, US regulation, and global geopolitical risk. ETH will outperform BTC on risk-on days and drop way harder when risk-off hits.
Key upside catalysts this month:
• Cooling inflation keeps Fed rate-cut hopes alive, pushing yields lower
• Spot ETH ETF inflows continue institutional rotation into Ethereum
• RWA & Layer-2 growth support its fundamental premium
• Mild geopolitical uncertainty drives hedge flows into crypto
#30YYieldAt19YHigh 2/2
Here are the exact downside risks that will kill ETH rallies in August:
• Sticky inflation or hawkish Jackson Hole comments will crush all speculative assets
• SEC & US regulatory headlines remain ETH’s #USStepsInForYen 1 overhang
• Any geopolitical escalation triggers immediate risk-off liquidations
• High derivatives leverage creates fast cascading dumps on support breaks
• Rising BTC dominance limits ETH upside momentum
My August verdict:
Choppy range-bound action until late August. No clean trend before Jackson Hole. This month trade MACRO, not charts.
年期美债收益率创19年新高
#以太坊主网十一周年：十一年不间断运行与生态成就
$ETH $SOL 中东局势的突然转向让原油与加密市场在周末同时变轨，叫停打击的表态迅速抽干了资产中的地缘溢价。
原油价格从高点应声下挫近10%，表明地缘溢价被迅速挤出，而 $BTC 从62200美元附近反弹至63500美元，显示出风险偏好的局部修复。
白宫口头叫停军事行动并宣布霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，直接促使避险资金从黄金和原油中撤出，转而寻找风险资产的短期承接点。
原油暴跌带来的通胀预期降温，与避险情绪消退导致的资金重组互为因果，共同推动了风险偏好的阶段性回暖。
若协议框架在未来几天得到实质性签署，通胀压力的释放将引导资金流向风险资产，促使 $BTC 确立反弹趋势，直至宏观流动性出现新的收紧信号。
一旦口头协议被证实缺乏实质约束力，油价再度飙升将重新激活通胀警报，导致刚刚回补的风险仓位遭遇清洗。
目前市场定价主要依赖于外交表态，如果双方在具体条款上出现反复，当前的和平重定价逻辑将被彻底证伪。
未来7天最值得观察的变量是霍尔木兹海峡的实际油轮通行流量是否恢复常态。
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切The crypto market "sleeps in July": Trading volume hits a two-year low, what is the market waiting for?
The latest report from K33 Research points out that Bitcoin spot trading volume in July 2026 is expected to set the weakest monthly record since the end of 2023, a phenomenon the market calls "Sleepy July." Bitcoin's price fell about 3% over the past week, with overall volatility dropping to its lowest level since 2024.
There are multiple reasons for the shrinking trading volume. On one hand, the Fed's interest rate path remains unclear, and institutional funds choose to wait and see until a clear rate cut signal is given; On the other hand, frequent hacking incidents in the first half of the year (with cumulative losses exceeding $1 billion) heightened risk aversion among some investors, leading them to reduce short-term trading. Additionally, the market performance after the Ethereum ETF listing remained stable but did not trigger a new round of FOMO, and the lack of hot topics led to a decline in capital activity.
"Sleep" does not equal "death." Historically, periods of low volatility are often the prelude to major market moves. Similar "trading volume hits" occurred in 2019 and 2023, followed by the rise of DeFi
Summer and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in a super rally. The core contradiction in the current market is: when will the macro liquidity turning point arrive?
Signals worth watching. Long-term holders continue to increase their holdings, and BTC balances on exchanges remain at multi-year lows, indicating strong selling sentiment. If the Fed clarifies its rate cut path in September, combined with continued ETF inflows, the market may see a new breakout. Conversely, if macro expectations are disappointed, the risk of a low volatility decline cannot be ignored.
For investors, "sleeping in July" is not a reason to exit, but rather a window for positioning. Stay patient, control your positions, and wait for clear signals.就在8月的第一天，CME的“美联储观察”工具给出了最新预测，交易员们认为美联储在9月政策会议上加息25个基点的概率，已经达到了67%。而相信利率会保持不变的比例，则降到了33%。 这个数字本身并不令人意外，但它清晰勾勒出当前市场的心态，年初普遍期待的“年内多次降息”几乎已成泡影，取而代之的是对“加息周期可能还有最后一程”的重新定价。 为什么市场会做出这样的调整？近期的经济数据是主要推手。劳动力市场依然紧俏，服务业通胀展现出超预期的粘性，这些都让美联储官员在公开讲话中保持了高度警惕。虽然6月的点阵图曾暗示今年还有两次加息，但市场此前一直半信半疑。如今，随着油价回升和基数效应逐渐消退，通胀卷土重来的担忧正在成为主流叙事。$SNDK 当然，67%并非板上钉钉。距离9月会议还有将近两个月，期间还有两份CPI和PCE通胀报告要出炉。如果后续数据能显示物价压力切实缓解，这个概率很可能迅速回落。但就目前而言，债券市场正在积极调整头寸，短期美债收益率持续走高，美元指数也获得了新的支撑。$SKHYNIX 对于普通投资者来说，这意味着一件事，高利率环境很可能比预想中更持久。无论是企业融资成本，还是居民Fundamental Research Report $VIRTUAL / Virtuals Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Virtuals Protocol ($VIRTUAL) has an overall score of 57/100, with a narrative that emphasizes implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Project Overview: Virtuals Protocol (token $VIRTUAL), AI/computing power track. Focusing on AI virtual influencers/Agent Creators. Benchmarked against FET and TAO. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by the hour of the GPU. The A100's monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Virtuals Protocol is $3.00B, FET not disclosed, TAO not disclosed. For FDV, Virtuals Protocol $4.20B, FET not disclosed, TAO not disclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Virtuals Protocol is $2.00M, FET not disclosed, TAO not disclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Virtuals Protocol has not disclosed, FET has not disclosed, TAO has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Overall: Solid fundamentals (score 57/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
Once the fundamentals are dismantled, how the market moves is another matter.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitConversely: if negotiations do happen this week, $SOL will play before $BTC, but only in one case
Don't be biased and bearish. Let me also lay out the reverse playbook for you—if the 8/4–8/8 US-Iran framework agreement is implemented, Hormuz restores 15+/day passage, and Brent oil falls below 85, then the order of capital inflow is most likely:
SOL > $ETH > BTC, not BTC leading the rally.
There are three reasons:
Previously, there were those who were "overkilled": SOL dropped 10% in 30 days, BTC only dropped a few points, and the more elastic ones recovered first
On-chain fundamentals remain intact: Solana daily active addresses remain around 5 million, staking rate around 64%, and the TVL of Jupiter+Kamino+Raydium has not shrunk proportionally with price—a case of "price fall, chain intact"
The narrative remains: AI agents (like Griffain) + DePIN + tokenized US stocks/RWAs are among the few stories in 2026 that can still add a valuation layer to SOL, not just pure meme chains
But the premise for chasing long on the reverse is only one — 73 is not broken, and 70.5 must not be broken.
Here's a minimalist list to watch:
Spot: Only pick up the needle below 72, not chase the bearish drop; 73.2 Improper reversal before recovery
Contract: Don't open positions at the 71–73 layer, break above 73.8 or below 70.5, then follow with leverage of ≤3x
Ecosystem Coins: JTO/KMNO/JUP Avoid this week, double-tap the unlock disk + main beta, don't go against your own capital
Macro switch: Watch the speech by Japan's Ministry of Finance on 8/3, daily traffic figures in Hormuz around 8/5, and US CPI outlook on 8/8—only when two out of three improve will it be considered a 'confirmation of easing.'
Right now, it's not about "buying SOL at the bottom," but "Are you qualified to wait until the situation eases and confirms?" For those with high leverage, surviving these 10 days is better than anything else. Bitcoin cycle time statistics: bear end and bull start time
First cycle (First halving: 2012-11-28)
Cow bottom: 2011-11 (about $2)
Halved: 2012-11-28
Bull Roof: 2013-11-30 ($1242)
1. Ox Bottom → Halved: about 12 months
2. Bull Bottom → Cow Crown: about 24 months
Second Cycle (Second Halving: 2016-07-09)
Beef Bottom: 2015-01-14 ($152)
Halving: 2016-07-09
Bull Roof: 2017-12-17 ($19,891)
1. Ox Bottom → Halved: 542 days (18 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Bottom: 1069 days (35 months)
Third Cycle (Third Halving: 2020-05-11)
Beef Bottom: 2018-12-15 ($3122)
Halving: 2020-05-11
Bull Top: 2021-11-10 ($69,044)
1. Ox Bottom → Halved: 513 days (17 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Bottom: 1061 days (34.8 months)
Fourth cycle (Fourth halving: 2024-04-20)
Bull Bottom: 2022-11-21 ($15,476)
Halving: 2024-04-20
This bull market high: 2025-10 (about $126,000)
1. Bull Base → Halved: 515 days (17 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Tip: about 1045 days (34.5 months)
Summary of historical laws
1. The following three maturity cycles are highly convergent:
✅ After bottoming out of the bear market, the 17~18 months will see a halving
✅ From the bottom of a bear market to the peak of a bull market, it generally takes 34~35 months
2. The first round is an early-stage niche market with low reference value;
So the bottom of this bear market is likely around December 2026On July 31, Tether delivered a mixed Q2 report. The most striking figure is excess reserves: from $8.2 billion at the end of the first quarter, it was cut in half to $4.1 billion—a quarterly decrease of $4.1 billion. As the world's largest stablecoin issuer, this figure alone is enough for the market to ponder for a while. This is also the first time the market has so intuitively seen that the security of stablecoin issuers' reserves fluctuates along with macro fluctuations. The contrast in net profit is even more glaring. In the same period last year, Tether made a net profit of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but this year's net operating profit for the same period dropped to just $1.5 billion, a significant year-on-year decline. It should be noted that the "net operating profit" here usually does not include unrealized gains and losses from market value fluctuations in assets like Bitcoin and gold—and it is precisely these assets that have held the market down this quarter. Bitcoin and precious metals holdings are shrinking. Tether's Bitcoin position dropped from $6.6 billion in the previous quarter to $5.8 billion, and physical gold dropped from $19.8 billion to $18.8 billion, despite adding 14 tons of gold during the period. In the second quarter, Bitcoin and gold prices both fell by more than 10%, and under the mark-to-market rules, the accounts naturally looked poor. The company also disclosed that its secured loan exposure decreased by $2.4 billion. For USDT holders, excess reserves dropped from 8.2 billion to 4.1 billion, meaning the safety cushion has thinned but not broken; As long as U.S. Treasuries and gold reserves are genuine, the risk of depegging remainsJust last night, a set of data brought a subtle subtle change to the previously dull market. As Bitcoin gradually weakens amid volatility, funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs have quietly shifted, and the previously strong bearish sentiment is now clearly converging. Let me briefly explain what this "funding rate" is. It is a fee paid by both long and short sides in the perpetual contract market to keep the contract price close to the spot price. You can treat it as a thermometer of market sentiment. If the $BTC rate is above 0.01%, it indicates that bulls are overheated and the market is generally bullish; Below 0.005% indicates bears have the upper hand and widespread pessimism. The current reading is stuck in the middle, gradually rebounding from the previous pessimistic range, but it hasn't crossed the threshold of optimism, falling into a gray area of "slightly weak neutral." What does this mean? The most direct signal is: the previous one-sided consensus on short selling is loosening. The bearish power is waning, and both bulls and bears have returned to a relatively stalemate. For investors who have experienced a period of decline, this is somewhat a chance to catch their breath; at least the panic has not spread further. $ETH But then again, a calm mood and a trend reversal are two different things. A return to neutral funding rates only means the market has temporarily released the most extreme pressure. But whether the market will consolidate momentum and rebound to recover, or continue to decline at a different pace, is still unclear based on this data. It acts more like a rearview mirror, reflecting the fading of pessimism over the past few days, rather than steering the way forward. 几个小时前，特朗普突然在社交媒体上宣布：同意取消对伊朗的打击。原因是“双方已就协议框架达成一致”，包括霍尔木兹海峡“立即、完全和彻底开放”。
BTC瞬间反弹约1500美元，从18日低点62200美元附近拉回63500美元。
全网多头开始喊“和平了”、“利空出尽”。
但我要告诉你——
过去24小时发生的事，根本不是“和平”，而是“剧本走到了第三幕”。
先回顾一下这24小时发生了什么：
第一幕，口头威胁。 7月31日，特朗普在戴维营内阁会议上放话：美国将“狠狠打击”伊朗，“总有一天，他们会说我们再也受不了了”。美军中央司令部司令库珀草拟了10至14天高强度轰炸方案，目标直指发电厂、炼油厂。
第二幕，撤侨警报。 8月1日，美国国务院向中东多国美国公民发出广泛安全警告，建议“考虑离开或做好迅速撤离准备”。美国驻安曼、耶路撒冷、巴格达大使馆同步发布安全警示。撤侨提醒从来不会出现在“嘴炮”阶段——这是冲突实质性升级的前兆。
第三幕，就是现在。 特朗普口头叫停，但条件是“能够迅速达成协议”。伊朗革命卫队1日刚宣布摧毁3架美军F-35战机。扳机只是暂时没扣，手指根本没离开。
这不是停火，这叫剧本走到了第三幕——打或不打，只差一个决定。
如果打击真的落地，BTC会怎么走？
别跟我扯模糊的“会涨”或“会跌”。交易地缘政治的核心不是猜打不打，而是想清楚打了之后怎么办。
三种情景，对号入座：
情景一：有限打击（概率最高）
美军打击1-2个能源设施，作为象征性施压。白宫内部有政治助手强烈反对全面打击，五角大楼也担心过度消耗防空弹药库存。打一下，给个交代，然后回到谈判桌。
→ BTC怎么走： 脉冲式下跌（风险厌恶）→ 快速反弹（避险资金流入）。波动率急剧放大。比特币目前在62800-63500美元区间震荡，一旦有限打击落地，先砸向60000，再拉回64000+。做日内波段的狂欢，做趋势的噩梦。
情景二：持续打击（概率中等）
多轮轰炸持续整个周末，切断德黑兰电力供应也在讨论范围内。伊朗全面反击方案已就绪，目标包括以色列关键基础设施和美国在中东的能源设施。霍尔木兹海峡油轮刚遭“不明发射物”袭击，机舱受损。
→ BTC怎么走： 油价直冲100美元+。全球滞胀预期升温。BTC在这个剧本里，不是风险资产，是“法币信用崩塌”的对冲工具。 它会跑赢大多数资产。但不是马上——先经历一轮恐慌抛售，然后在通胀叙事中重新定价。
情景三：外交降温（刚发生）
特朗普口头叫停，协议框架达成，霍尔木兹海峡开放。这是市场正在定价的剧本。
→ BTC怎么走： 油价暴跌，BTC短线反弹。但别高兴太早——宏观不确定性下降，意味着“避险溢价”消退。 BTC从62200反弹到63500，但这反弹能持续多久？取决于协议是真签还是假签。
三种情景，结局完全不同。但有一个共同点——波动率都会飙升。
不管打不打、怎么打，接下来的市场都会是过山车。
在这个位置，赌方向不如卖波动率。
做空期权，收保费。比猜特朗普明天发什么推文靠谱一万倍。
如果周一开盘前打击落地，你的仓位能在10分钟内扛住5%的波动吗？A few days ago, $MSTR held its Q2 earnings call. At the meeting, Saylor stated that it is possible to sell $5 billion worth of BTC. This money will be used to replenish cash reserves, buy back stocks, and pay interest. At the same time, he hinted that the amount of $BTC sold could exceed this amount. —————————————————— Of course, I don't really care how much he'll sell; I'm more concerned about how long he'll sell. Looking at the $ETH/$BTC ratio, $ETH is currently appreciating compared to $BTC. If $MSTR will sell $BTC long-term, then there is a stable arbitrage path. $MSTR Selling $BTC is very likely to create significant selling pressure in the market, causing $BTC to fall much and rise less compared to $ETH. If I go long on $ETH and simultaneously short $BTC, as long as $ETH appreciates compared to $BTC, I can earn a risk-free profit. So rather than selling how much it will sell, I'm more concerned about how long Saylor will sell $BTC this time. The longer he sells, the longer the depreciation of $BTC will be compared to $ETH. But if Saylor quickly lowered his company's leverage, his motivation to keep selling coins would be minimal. If that's the case, my arbitrage pattern will be very dangerous. Because of this set#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
1. 30-year US Treasury yield turning point: If it falls significantly from 5.2%, some of the pressure on the crypto market will be lifted; If the price continues to rise, the pressure on risk assets will further increase.
2. The upcoming U.S. CPI, nonfarm payroll data, and the Jackson Hole Central Bank speech at the end of August will directly influence the direction of U.S. Treasury yields.
3. Simultaneously observe BTC-ETF funds: Only when yields fall and ETFs return to net inflows can Bitcoin have the conditions to start a decent rebound.
The 30-year Treasury hit a new high, serving as a mid-term macro mountain weighing down the market; It may not immediately crash, but as long as it remains high, BTC will find it difficult to break out of a major bull market, and the rebound will be locked in. ETH has a relative advantage in staking yields but cannot be completely immune to systemic risks.
Current market performance: Negative news on US Treasuries weighs on the market at a major level, but in the short term, driven by geopolitical news, a temporary rebound may occur.
This is the current situation where BTC is stuck and oscillating around 63,000:
In the medium term, there is pressure on the macro market; in the short term, the market is focused on news and games, making it unlikely that the rebound will turn into a one-sided surge. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高#BTC#eth#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued evacuation warnings #Coldcard漏洞发酵, and the affected aircraft expanded $BTC $ETH $BEAT With Moscow's command, Russia's mining era has reached a historic turning point.
On July 25, 2026, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed Resolution No. 936, announcing a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency mining in Moscow, Moscow Oblast, and parts of Kursk Oblast starting August 15. The ban will last until December 31, 2032, spanning more than six years.
This is not a simple policy adjustment, but a strategic-level battle to defend energy.
Why Moscow? Because the power system here is already overwhelmed. The Moscow Oblast Ministry of Energy disclosed that 65 data centers in the region are currently connected to the grid, with a combined power supply capacity of up to 734 megawatts. Even more shocking, Moscow Oblast Energy Minister Sergey Voropanov previously publicly stated that mining electricity consumption in Moscow's grid is estimated to reach up to 1GW. According to forecasts, by 2032, the capacity of data centers in the Moscow region could grow to 3.6GW, accounting for 17% of maximum load.
The Department of Energy's explanation is straightforward: without year-round restrictions, these regions will face the risk of insufficient electricity supply.
Russia's attitude toward cryptocurrency is actually quite contradictory. Since mining was legalized on November 1, 2024, by February 2026, more than 1,500 companies and sole proprietors, as well as about 4,000 individuals, have registered with the Federal Tax Service. However, legalization does not mean unlimited expansion—when mining hash power begins to threaten the stability of electricity supply, the government makes decisions without hesitation.
This ban also applies to local residents participating in mining pools and related activities, covering eight municipal districts in Kursk Oblast and the city of Ligov. In fact, similar restrictions have been implemented since 2025 in regions such as the North Caucasus Federal District, Donetsk, and Luhansk—Moscow's accession marks the ban moving from the borderlands to the heartland.
From legalization in November to the comprehensive ban in August, in less than a year, Russia's mining narrative has shifted from "open" to "controlled." When energy security becomes the overriding national interest, even the largest computing power must make way for the grid. This six-year ban not only concerns Moscow's power balance, but also serves as the most realistic footnote to the entire crypto world's energy narrative—the end of computing power will always be electricity bills and national will.
The choice left for miners is simple: either leave, or wait for 2033.