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# BTC at 79.6k, how to move before next week's CPI? Veterans can just look at these four charts. On 9/5, the market is fluctuating in one sentence: the price fluctuated around 79,566, but the amplitude was actually smaller than last night—the 81k plunge to 78,649, then pulled back to 79.6k in 2 hours. This is called a "fake breakdown move." To judge if it's real, you don't need to guess the second candlestick; just go back to the data sources from last night's bullish and bearish battles: liquidation maps, ETF flows, major players' positions, and the probability of post-farm payroll rates. Today's article will use these four data points to explain why veterans don't heavily hold positions before CPI --- 1. Review last night: Nonfarm payrolls tripled than expected, why didn't the market crash? August nonfarm payrolls reported +162,000, expected +56,000, more than triple. Textbook logic: strong employment → sticky inflation → Fed not loosening $→ US Treasuries strengthening→ BTC falling. The market did indeed — BTC plunged from 81k to 78,649 in 15 minutes. But interestingly, after 24 hours, the price returned to 79.6k, not further down. Three data points explain this: 1. In 24 hours, there was a total margin liquidation of $403 million across the network. **Not a single direction**, after a brief long sell-off on the non-farm night (over 200 million orders in 15 minutes), it was slashed to 81.4k and then reversed in short selling, with alternating longs and shorts, not one-sided. 2. Net BTC spot ETFsdid some calculations and (unless I'm wrong) there are only 12m $PONS tokens *total* in LP available to buy rn
literally someone can't buy 2% of the token rn even if they wanted to
an advantage of the protocol continuing to buy/burn the token... @ponsdotfamily just starting#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Brothers are all asking about SanDisk, so I checked it out.
SanDisk surged nearly 200 points overnight. Did Nvidia really place an order?
This thing with SanDisk, last night’s move wasn’t just a rally, it was a launch on the spot.
An epic explosive surge.
At first, I also thought Nvidia suddenly started using SanDisk devices, but after digging through the news, I found this wave is a triple overlay:
On September 1, Dell’s earnings call explicitly said AI servers are most lacking in "DRAM, then NAND";
On September 2, Nvidia signed an agreement to acquire Hugging Face, disclosed on September 3;
On the same day, Kioxia also stated it is closely cooperating with Nvidia to develop AI ultra-high-speed SSDs.
But it must be made clear, there is currently no announcement of "Nvidia officially purchasing SanDisk devices."
SanDisk can fly because it has a 25-year partnership with Kioxia, jointly developing and manufacturing NAND, and it is also part of Nvidia’s Storage-Next ecosystem.
I used to only focus on GPUs, but now I finally realize: graphics cards handle computing, but massive data has to be stored somewhere?
So this isn’t a baseless rally, but don’t imagine "participating in the ecosystem" as a "big order landing."
The story soared nearly 200 points overnight; samples, mass production, and real orders need to catch up quickly afterward.
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
$SAND Mid to long term: The overall direction of institutional and political capital deployment in crypto infrastructure remains unchanged.
Short term: The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are the biggest constraint on the market; the uncertainty over a rate hike in September remains unresolved, awaiting CPI guidance;
Sector opportunities:
Storage track: The bullish trend in US storage stocks brings narrative benefits to FIL and AR, but it is essential to verify real on-chain business and not just speculate on concepts;
Public chains: SOL profits from risk appetite, ETH profits from financial accumulation, different market phases reward different assets;
Risks: Theme tokens (FIL, AR, SOL) have higher beta; if the BTC main trend breaks, their correction magnitude will be significantly greater than BTC and ETH.What is "on-chain token funding"? This is not Circle (the issuer of USDC) creating money out of thin air, but rather an institution or whale handing over real $250 million in cash to Circle and demanding: "I'll give you the money, you help me generate 250 million USDC tokens on the Solana chain, and I want to use them on-chain." So, the token issuance = real external funds flowing into the crypto world. It's like someone in a casino just exchanging 250 million tokens to advance a chip house—this is real new liquidity. Why do big funds choose to "get into" on Solana? $250 million is no small amount. Putting this money on the Solana chain says three things: Booming demand for on-chain trading and wealth management: Solana is fast and has low fees. Whether it's whales doing high-frequency arbitrage, interest-bearing wealth management, or providing liquidity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), a large amount of USDC is needed as the "lifeblood." Institutions prefer "compliant stablecoins + high-performance chains": Compared to USDT, USDC is more compliant, and traditional institutions prefer USDC as their first entry point; Solana has become one of the most frequently interacted "highways" between traditional capital and Web3. Stocking up on "ammunition" in advance: This money is most likely a pool of funds pre-laid by market makers (MMs), institutional investors, or large project teams to prepare for upcoming trading peaks or new project launches. So we want toNonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations by 3 times, but BTC only dropped 2%?
$BTC
Last night's nonfarm payrolls were somewhat beyond expectations.
The US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, while the market had previously expected only about 53,000–56,000.
That's nearly 3 times the expectation.
More importantly, July's data was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000.
In other words, the market's original concern about "rapid deterioration in US employment" did not happen, at least according to this data. The US unemployment rate in August also remained steady at 4.1%.
With such a large expectation gap, BTC surprisingly did not fall sharply.
Before the nonfarm release, BTC once surged to around $82,200.
After the nonfarm release, the lowest point dropped to about $78,600.
If we only look at the first few minutes after the data release, BTC quickly fell from around $81,300 to below $80,000, a drop of about 2%; even calculating from the intraday high to low, the retracement was only a few percentage points.
This is worth pondering.
Because this time it was not "slightly above expectations."
It was:
Nearly 3 times the expected difference.
🟢First possibility: The market actually never fully believed in "no rate hike"
The market never waits until the data is released to start trading.
Before the nonfarm release, funds had already been adjusting positions around the September Federal Reserve decision.
The day before, dovish remarks from Fed officials pushed BTC to break above $80,000 again, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike had clearly decreased.
So BTC reaching around $82,000 already included some of the expectation that:
"The Fed might not raise rates."
Last night’s nonfarm data just pushed this expectation back.
From this perspective, last night’s drop looks more like: a re-pricing.
Not that the market suddenly discovered a huge risk it had never known before.
There is a big difference between these two.
---
🟡Second possibility: Someone is really buying the dip
There is another data point that cannot be ignored.
The day before the nonfarm release, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $730 million, a very significant recent capital inflow.
This means that around $80,000, it’s not just contract funds playing.
There is real spot capital entering.
This might explain why after the first rapid sell-off last night, BTC did not immediately turn into a continuous stampede.
Especially after BTC fell below $80,000, if ETF funds continue to flow in, it’s very worth watching.
Because this means: macro funds are selling, but another group of funds might be buying.
---
🔴Third possibility: The data that truly decides direction hasn’t come yet
This is also the biggest reason I’m currently reluctant to directly call it "all bad news priced in."
Strong nonfarm payrolls prove that: the US economy and employment are not as bad as the market previously imagined.
But what does the Fed really need to solve?
It’s still inflation.
Strong employment means the Fed "has the ability" to continue raising rates.
But whether it is "necessary" to continue raising rates largely depends on upcoming inflation data.
So after last night’s nonfarm data, although the market clearly raised the expectation for a September rate hike, it did not price in a 100% hike. There is still a lot of room for market swings.
That’s the reason.
The market is still waiting for the next card: CPI
If the upcoming CPI cools down significantly, the market can completely reinterpret it as:
Employment is good, but inflation is falling, so the Fed has no need to continue raising rates.
But if the next scenario is: strong nonfarm + high CPI
Then the nature completely changes.
Because this means: the economy can hold, employment can hold,
but inflation has not come down.
Then the Fed’s reason to continue raising rates will be significantly strengthened.
At that time, BTC may face a real second round of macro pressure.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Whales switching from short to long! $SPCX retraces to 140, will you follow the main force's clear move?
1. Big players opened long at 140.18, strong signal flipping from short to long, liquidation price at 28.83 with a very thick safety cushion;
2. 140 is a key support level, confirmed by a retracement after breakthrough;
3. Negative impact from unlocking has been digested, SpaceX stock rose 5%, institutional target price is bullish. Combining retracement support + abnormal data, betting on an upward breakout. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Bitcoin: 81,000 slapped back down to 79,700
Babies, that needle last night even poked my eyelashes crooked. $BTC is now around $79,700, down 2% in 24h, but still up 2.6% over 7 days and 23% over a month — this isn’t a crash, it’s just a strong rally taking a breather.
There’s only one culprit: August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, expected only 56,000, a triple slap in the face, with June and July revised up by 55,000. The probability of a rate hike in September shot up to 68%, and Bitcoin missed stepping on 80,000. But it just surged nearly 25% in August, the strongest August since 2021; why panic over this small pullback? Weekend liquidity is as thin as paper, it just won’t break 78,000.
Easter egg on-chain: RWA total value surged to $38.7 billion, holders skyrocketed 105% in a month to 3.298 million. Bitcoin stays silent, institutions are quietly arbitraging. The real bullet is the Senate’s "Clear Act" vote on September 15.
Second favorite: fell, but still the most resilient of the three
$ETH around $2,455, down 2.5% in 24h, lost 2,500. Don’t rush to cry — yesterday it surged 5% to 2,508, a bullish candle that blasted through 82.41 million shorts.
Up 32.6% in August, 18.5% in July, the strongest kid for 2026. ETFs are crazier: net inflow of $824 million in a single week at the end of August, the strongest week this year, with a total inflow of $13 billion. Now stuck just below 2,560, grinding and making me itchy. Weekly close above 2,550, 2,600 is just paper-thin.
SOL: The lifeline at $100
$SOL around $101.8, down 3% in 24h, the worst performer of the three, still touched 109.57 at the end of August. I’m not worried, its fundamentals are strong:
SGP-0002 passed narrowly with 67%, annual deflation rate doubled from 15% to 30%, 18.9 million fewer tokens issued over six years, 1.5% terminal inflation moved up to 2029. Bitwise’s BSOL became the first altcoin ETF to break $1 billion AUM, with Goldman Sachs as the largest institutional holder. ETF inflows continued for 9 days straight, $154 million last week. Transaction V1 mainnet launched on September 9, all ZK.
$100 holds strong, target 116.88; if it breaks 98.02, I’ll catch you at 90. Don’t run.【#OpenSky 100 Days Foundation Day 68】⚡️
Only those who first secure the communication layer have the chance to define the next decade.🚀
As Web3 meets the AI era, private communication shifts from an "optional" feature to a "lifeline."
OpenSky has taken the lead—communication primitives, Agent-level privacy, end-to-end encryption, full stack ready.
The first mover sets the rules; followers abide by them. Not every project catches the right timing, but OpenSky is already in position.🔥
OpenSky #Web3 #AICommunication #NextDecade#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位, can the strength continue? One Bitcoin can now be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold. The highest since January. The market's reaction to this figure is: "The digital gold narrative is making a comeback." Bitwise said Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold hit a six-year high. Glassnode said Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to zero. Scaramucci said Beckent's G20 comment "global debt overflow" was "Bitcoin ad of the year." Everything sounds like a story of structural shift: Bitcoin finally stopped following tech stocks and started following gold. It is becoming the thing it always wanted to be. But I stared at the word "January" in the phrase "new high since January" for a long time. What happened in January? How much did this ratio drop after January? Why did September return to January's level? None of these three questions are answered by any news news. And the answer may be closer to the truth than the catchy story of "digital gold." Replace the subject with "the January high." If the subject is "Bitcoin," the story is "outperforming gold." If the subject is "relevance," the story is "identity shift." But if the subject is the BTC/Gold Ratio that January once touched, then fell back, and is now being tested again, the whole narrative becomes questionable 18.17。 This figure is not a "historic high." It is "the highest since January." There is a gap between these two wordsWhen Bitcoin starts to rise, all those miners who once pivoted to AI suddenly remember that they're mining companies.
Mining group stocks surged 40-67% in August, while CoreWeave only rose about 21%, Nebius 17%. Miners with more exposure to AI and HPC were practically flat or even declined. Just a 23% BTC increase, and the AI pivot story suddenly becomes far less appealing compared to simply holding coins.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $BTC to $XAU ratio rises to 18.17, the highest since January this year
Debt concerns are the core driver; investors are no longer debating between gold or BTC, but want both
Bitwise report shows BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has reached a six-year high, while its correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to a one-year low. BTC is shifting from "following Nasdaq" to "following gold"‼️
If the correlation trend with gold continues, BTC's performance over the next fifteen years could be very objective
Although the number 18.17 itself does not indicate a trend reversal, BTC is shifting from "following Nasdaq" to "following gold." If this correlation persists, the path ahead could be completely different from the past fifteen years.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC to gold ratio rises to highest level since January, can the strength continue?
Recently, the Bitcoin to gold ratio rose to 18.17, reaching a new high since January, meaning 1 BTC can now be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. This milestone signifies that BTC has not only risen against the US dollar but has also outperformed the traditional hard asset gold.
Debt concerns drive synchronized strength
The core catalyst for this rise is not simply a rebound in risk appetite but market worries over high debt levels in major economies such as the US. Data shows that except for Switzerland, the debt-to-GDP ratio in major developed economies exceeds 100%. Investors are beginning to allocate both Bitcoin and gold to hedge against potential currency depreciation risks.
The "digital gold" narrative gains data support
Bitwise points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to a nearly six-year high, while its correlation with US stocks has dropped to a one-year low. This indicates that Bitcoin is decoupling from tech stock trends and beginning to exhibit characteristics of an "amplified gold." $XAU
Can the strength continue?
Although the strengthening ratio confirms BTC's relative value increase, its high volatility means it may simply be amplifying the same depreciation narrative faster. If macro debt concerns continue to ferment, BTC's "digital gold" pricing cycle may deepen; conversely, if the market returns to risk appetite, the correlation between the two may loosen. #BTC #gold #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ This looks more like macro repricing than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down 1.36%, with ETH and SOL slightly weaker as August payrolls beat expectations. That keeps policy sensitivity elevated, so I would treat the next rates signal as more important than today's red tape.
Not advice, just analysis.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Trading Review Notes｜Two Systems: Emotional Arbitrage vs. Cyclical Main Rise
Combining Mr. Ren's emotional arbitrage approach and Mr. Ma's cyclical judgment approach, integrating A-share market intuition shifted to US stock high-leverage contracts, distinguishing arbitrage markets from main rising markets, using the two models separately without mixing.
1. Mr. Ren: Emotional Low-Position Arbitrage Leverage
Focuses on moments of extreme market emotional release.
Panic emotions hit an extreme low point, betting on a rebound brought by emotional recovery.
Entry points can be chosen near the close, betting on the next day's trading space.
But there is an objective reality here: a low emotional point does not equal a bottom.
After buying, the market can only move in two directions: a direct rebound recovery or continue to probe lower, with prices falling deeper.
This model essentially profits from quick emotional pulses, only capturing the emotional recovery segment; once emotions dissipate, exit immediately, not suitable for large wave trends.
Suitable for short-term arbitrage, not for holding main rising large trends.
2. Mr. Ma: Judging from a Cyclical Perspective
Does not rashly enter the market relying solely on panic emotions.
Even if the market is severely beaten and emotions are full of panic, one must return to the cycle to assess the current position.
If the cycle has not bottomed, pure emotional sell-offs are just pauses in the downtrend; rebounds are mostly the first wave of escape rebounds with poor sustainability.
Only when cyclical signals confirm simultaneously, selling pressure is fully released, and a secondary bottom forms, will a true main rising market emerge.
The main rising market is worth holding to capture larger profit space.
3. Distinguish the Two Models: Arbitrage when appropriate, main rise when appropriate Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, September rate hike probability soars to 60%! How will the market move next week?
The nonfarm data was unexpectedly strong, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 60%. The CPI data next Friday (9.11) will be the key test to determine the final policy direction.
But here is a core misconception:
Although the rate hike expectation has already been reflected in recent stock market trends, what we really need to be wary of is not the "rate hike" action itself, but the economic signals behind it.
If the U.S. economy remains resilient and corporate profits continue to grow, then the valuation pressure caused by rising interest rates may not completely reverse the stock market's upward trend. Therefore, even if the rate hike occurs as scheduled in September, it should not be simply equated with the U.S. stock market entering a sustained decline phase.
A more critical variable emerges:
A rare "policy divergence"
Pay attention to a major piece of news that is easily overlooked: next Wednesday (9.9), the U.S. Treasury will launch an expanded version of the Treasury buyback program, with a scale as high as $4 billion!
What does this mean? The Treasury is "supporting" the market, while the Fed is "tightening" liquidity. This rare policy divergence must be viewed together! Bull and Bear Divergence: Who's Buying, Who's Selling?
On the Bull Side: The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to its highest since 2020, while its correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to nearly zero. This indicates the market is treating Bitcoin as "digital gold" for allocation rather than a high-beta tech stock. The $3.5 billion net inflow into ETFs in August is a solid institutional buy. TD Cowen sets a year-end target price at $97,500, while Bernstein is more aggressive, seeing $150,000.
On the Bear Side: September is historically Bitcoin's weakest month, with an average decline of -2.95% since 2013. 68% of supply is in profit, indicating significant potential selling pressure. The $83,000-$86,000 range has a "ceiling" supply of up to 1.05 million long-term held Bitcoins. Fidelity Digital Assets also poured cold water: a rebound does not mean the bear market is over; November could still test new lows. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Tonight's non-farm payroll data itself is not particularly impressive, but what truly confuses the market is the White House's optimistic interpretation of this "bad news," even calling again for a rate cut. This stance is seen by outsiders as almost equivalent to the executive branch attempting to directly interfere with the Federal Reserve's independent decision-making, leaving many puzzled.📉
After the data release, the crypto market generally came under pressure, with Bitcoin and most major coins retreating; in contrast, the US stock market remained resilient, showing an independent upward trend, making this divergence quite peculiar. Meanwhile, some small-cap tokens like $SNDK and $SPCX recorded considerable gains, suggesting that capital seems to be searching for new narrative outlets.🧐
What is most worth cautioning about now is not the single data point itself, but the potential amplification of volatility caused by confusing policy signals. If the market interprets this move as a prelude to an economic recession, risk appetite may further contract; conversely, if seen as the beginning of a loosening cycle, capital flows could reverse. At this stage, maintaining observation and controlling positions may be more important than guessing the direction.⚠️
Risk warning: Market volatility is uncertain, and the above content does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 加息概率从50%跳到62%。2年期美债收益率冲到4.416%，2025年1月以来最高。比特币失守8万美元。美股三大指数全线收跌。 看起来一切都合理：经济太强→需要加息→风险资产承压。链条清晰，逻辑完整。 但如果你把16.2万这个数字拆开，会看到另一幅画面：时薪同比只涨了3.1%，而同期的通胀是3.4%。 这意味着，在这个“强到需要加息”的就业市场里，劳动者的实际购买力在下降。新增的16.2万个岗位，让美国人的平均工资跑输了物价。 一个“强劲”的就业市场，正在让身处其中的人变得更穷。而市场对此的反应，是为加息下注。 这才是这条新闻里最不对劲的地方。 把主语换成“那3.1%的时薪” 如果主语是“非农”，故事是“经济强劲”。如果主语是“加息概率”，故事是“流动性收紧”。但如果主语换成那份被16.2万的光芒完全盖住的时薪数据——3.1%的同比涨幅，低于3.4%的通胀，整个叙事就裂开了。 3.1%的时薪同比，说明什么？说明企业愿意用更低的实际工资雇到人。说明“充分就业”的代价是劳动者议价权的丧失。说明这个“强到让市场害怕”的劳动力市场，本质上是数量在扩#TSLA无人出租车发布不及预期，股价跌近6%
$TSLA As of the close on September 4, Tesla's stock fell 5.92%, with a single-day market value evaporation of about $88 billion (approximately RMB 591 billion). During the session, it once dropped more than 6.2%, with market value declining from $1.49 trillion to about $1.39 trillion.
Tesla held the Cybercab driverless taxi launch event in Austin, Texas. This event was by invitation only, with no public live broadcast, and Tesla's official website did not release any related press releases. CEO Elon Musk himself did not appear. Musk only posted a pre-recorded video on the social platform X.
This sharply contrasts with Tesla's previous highly dramatic and theatrical product launches. Wall Street Journal columnist Tim Higgins bluntly stated that this move did not meet Musk's promised "robotaxi storm." Musk had claimed "Cybercab storm" on social media just hours before the event, creating a strong contrast with the low-key release.
The stock price decline results from a combination of sparse information from the launch, surprise regulatory scrutiny, and exposure of operational issues. Tesla's long-term narrative—growth through autonomous driving and Robotaxi business—has not fundamentally changed, but short-term uncertainty has significantly increased. Whether Tesla can reverse market sentiment through subsequent actions as before remains to be seen.#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出
Robinhood Chain is experiencing a very contradictory market phenomenon: on-chain fee revenue has surged significantly, yet capital has turned into a net outflow.
Deutsche Bank analysts have raised the target price for Robinhood from $115 to $136, maintaining a buy rating. The core logic is that Robinhood Chain's fee revenue growth has exceeded expectations, and traditional institutions have begun incorporating the earnings of this public chain into HOOD's valuation framework.
On-chain revenue data is very impressive: DeFiLlama data shows that mid-August daily on-chain revenue was less than $200,000, but on September 2 it surged directly to $4.01 million. Deutsche Bank estimates that annualized revenue could exceed $100 million.
However, risk signals have appeared simultaneously. On September 4, Ethereum saw a net capital inflow of $46.47 million, while Robinhood Chain experienced a net outflow of $21.07 million, making it the public chain with the highest capital outflow that day. The on-chain Meme coin hype has rapidly cooled, with MEME's market cap shrinking from $150 million to $40 million, and HOOD's stock price falling 2.09% accordingly.
The market's core question now is: can the explosive high on-chain revenue be converted into long-term stable cash flow, or is it merely a short-term bonus brought by Meme speculation?#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
The BTC to gold ratio has surged to its highest level since January. Can this strength continue?
The BTC to gold ratio has hit a new high for the year. Can this wave of strength hold?
Since BTC surpassed 80,000, I have been closely watching the comparison data between BTC and gold. Currently, 1 BTC can be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, the highest level since January this year.
Interestingly, the 90-day correlation between the two has also reached its highest point since 2020, indicating that the market is concerned about declining currency purchasing power and expanding debt, which is driving both gold and Bitcoin upward.
However, there have been changes on the funding side. In August, the US BTC ETF saw a net inflow overall, but entering early September, funds began to fluctuate back and forth, and institutions have not been continuously pushing in.
Opinions among experts are completely polarized; some continue to be optimistic about the bull market for scarce assets, while Jiang Zhuoer has already fully reduced his position near $82,050.
Whether BTC can continue to outperform gold depends on whether the selling pressure above the $80,000‑82,500 range can be absorbed. There is heavy selling pressure at this level, and if spot buying cannot keep up, a correction could easily occur.
Right now, there are solid reasons for both bullish and bearish views, so it’s unwise to blindly chase the highs. What do you think? Can BTC’s relative strength against gold continue? $ZEC Trust me, today's strategy will satisfy you. Don't forget to come back and thank me if you make a profit!
Position direction: Light long position.
Entry: 1025.5-1026
Take profit: 1040.00 - 1047.11
Position basis: Closing firmly above 1026 means completely freeing all trapped positions from the early session on September 5th. The upper vacuum zone reaches directly to 1047. This strategy space is only 2%, and weekend continuity is poor, so you must enter and exit quickly. Take partial profits at 1040, and don't be greedy to reach 1047. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🔥$BTC Nonfarm payrolls contradict Waller, next up are CPI and FOMC reports
In September, when trading BTC, don’t just focus on the 79k horizontal line; three reports are more useful than drawing lines. The first report, Nonfarm payrolls, is out: 162,000 far exceeds expectations. Waller recently dovishly said "if inflation continues to decline, we will hold steady," but with the employment surge, the dovish tone was immediately withdrawn by the personnel department; strong employment = economy not cooling = high interest rates can persist = interest-free assets get hit first. The second report, August CPI/core CPI around September 11: if core CPI is relatively hot month-over-month and oil prices push the energy component higher, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push above about 4.8%, making BTC’s 79k–81k resistance tougher; if core CPI cools, the market will reprice "one rate hike then pause," allowing a second test of 81k. The third report, FOMC on September 15–16: the key is not whether to hike 25bp, but the dot plot—if after hiking they say "watch the data," it could trigger a sell-off followed by a rebound; if they hint at another hike in December, BTC could fall back to 78k or even test 75k–76k.
Combined with chip data, it’s clearer: 68% of profit-taking is near 79k and can sell anytime; breaking the 71k short-term cost line will become a stop-loss wall; if the 83k–86k long-term supply is not absorbed, don’t talk about a trend. Expectation play: strong Nonfarm + strong CPI + ETF outflows again → test 78k, breaking 76k won’t hold; Nonfarm already priced in + weak CPI + ETF weekly net inflows → grind 79k to 81k, if volume expands at 81k then look to 83k. Chasing 81k low or deep drops without ETF support is risky.
$BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
BTC-gold ratio hits a new high since January, testing the sustainability of the scarce asset rally
After Bitcoin stabilized above the $80,000 mark, the market focus has shifted from a simple price breakthrough to whether its relative strength compared to the traditional safe-haven asset gold can continue.
From a macro perspective, this round of high-level consolidation is supported by two core conditions: the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to cool down, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, opening up upside space for risk assets. There has been a structural change in capital flows; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of funds overall in August, but since early September, capital flows have turned into two-way fluctuations, with institutions yet to form sustained one-sided buying, and incremental momentum has slowed.
A key indicator sends a signal: currently, one Bitcoin can be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, with the BTC-gold ratio reaching the highest point since January this year. Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020. Behind this phenomenon lies the global market's shared concerns about debt expansion and fiat currency purchasing power dilution, with these two scarce assets being placed into the same allocation framework by investors.Storage Triumvirate Soars on September 4: SanDisk ($SNDK) closed at $1740, surging 11.90%; Micron ($MU) closed at $1016.59, up 6.10%; SK Hynix ADR ($SKHYNIX) closed at $177, rising 8.14%. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) jumped 6.61% in a single day, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why the collective rebound? There are three core reasons:
1. AI computing power demand continues to explode. Dell's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with an AI server backlog of $95 billion, directly proving that tech giants are frantically buying every available storage wafer. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and NAND flash remain in short supply, with Micron's most advanced storage production lines booked through the end of 2026.
2. Severe supply-demand mismatch. According to TrendForce data, DRAM contract prices surged 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, while NAND Flash soared 70% to 75%. Major manufacturers are shifting capacity toward AI, further squeezing supply.
3. Institutions are actively bullish. Lynx Equity released a research report predicting years of shortages in the storage industry, setting price targets of $1325 for Micron and $2450 for SanDisk, effectively boosting market sentiment.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (September 5)
Bears dominated all day, long positions liquidated by one-sided clearing, early volume extremely shrank, 24-hour surge to $8,265 — extremely low concentration shows liquidations almost entirely released at the end of the session
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $127.48 $127.48 $0
4 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
12 hours $231.93 $231.93 $0
24 hours $8,265.93 $8,265.93 $0
1-hour bears extremely dominated, long liquidation $127.48 while shorts $0; 4-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume slightly increased to $231.93; 12-hour bears maintained extreme dominance, volume completely stagnant (identical to 4-hour data); 24-hour bears extremely dominated close, long liquidation $8,265.93 while shorts $0, cumulative liquidation $8,265.93. Since short liquidation is always 0, leverage multiple cannot be calculated. Volume trajectory: $127→$231→$231→$8,265, 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 2.8% of 24-hour total, extremely low concentration — liquidations almost entirely released at the very last moment of the session. Leverage recommended to compress within 3x, direction highly consistent but volume small, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 5
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations reigniting rate hike bets, Bitcoin under short-term pressure but the "digital gold" narrative remains intact, OKX Prophet includes FOMC decision in prediction pool.
📊 Nonfarm 162,000 far exceeds expectations: September rate hike probability returns to 60%
On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 55,000; July revised from -23,000 to +21,000; June revised from 20,000 to 31,000, totaling an upward revision of 55,000. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, hourly wage growth slowed to 3.6% YoY, the slowest since July 2024. CME shows September rate hike probability rising from 50/50 to about 60%, dollar surged, US Treasury yields sharply rose. Nonfarm is just the "appetizer" — September 11 CPI is the core variable deciding September rate hike.
₿ Bitcoin under short-term pressure: gold ratio remains high at 18.17
After nonfarm, Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000. Short-term suppression comes from rising rate hike expectations, but as of September 4, Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, the highest since January. The revaluation of fiat credit after US debt surpasses $40 trillion is driving investors to buy both Bitcoin and gold to hedge government debt inflation risk. The "digital gold" narrative remains intact.
🔮 OKX Prophet launches FOMC rate prediction
OKX "Prophet" Season 2 has included September FOMC rate decision prediction in the pool, users can use free XP to judge whether the Fed will hike rates, sharing a $600,000 prize pool covering football, esports, F1, and macro data tracks.
💎 Summary
August nonfarm 162,000 far exceeded expectations pushing September rate hike probability back to 60%, but next week's CPI is the final verdict; Bitcoin under short-term pressure falling below $80,000, but gold ratio remains high at 18.17, "digital gold" narrative unbroken; OKX Prophet includes FOMC prediction in $600,000 prize pool, prediction market track continues to expand. CORE liquidation data shows an extreme "end-of-session surge" structure — early volume extremely shrank (1 hour $127, 4-12 hours only $231), 24-hour surged to $8,265, 2.8% extremely low concentration indicates whales idled all day, completing targeted clearing only at the end of the session. Direction highly consistent but volume small, just a ripple in the big picture. When employment data, asset pricing, and prediction markets converge in the same week — the market is waiting for next week's CPI final answer. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🚨 Is this the power of the non-farm payrolls? $BTC, $ETH, $SOL none of them escaped!
Before the data came out, BTC was still around 81,000, ETH stood at 2,530, and the market was still immersed in Waller's dovish expectations. The result: August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate still at 4.1%, directly resetting the market's interest rate expectations.
The logic is actually very simple:
Strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → yields go up → risk assets under pressure → leveraged longs forced to stop out.
BTC once fell below 80,000, ETH quickly dropped from around 2,530, and high Beta assets like SOL saw further amplified declines. Even more severe, over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in a short time, indicating this was not just spot selling pressure but a leveraged stampede.
But I actually don't think it's time to shout "bull market over" yet.
⚠️ The real key is whether it can recover after the drop.
If 80,000 is firmly held again, it means there is still support below; if 80,000 turns from support into resistance, then we must guard against the market continuing downward to seek liquidity.
Next, don't rush to guess the bottom; CPI is the second card.
Non-farm payrolls are responsible for changing expectations, CPI decides whether these expectations can continue.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 A few days ago, the Federal Reserve said it was paying more attention to next week's CPI data rather than the non-farm payrolls, but the non-farm payrolls came out very strong. Such strong non-farm payrolls indicate that US employment is very good, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. What does Trump need for the midterm elections? He needs low interest rates, a high stock market, and good employment to boost his votes. Now that the non-farm payrolls are so strong, doesn't that highlight how good the employment environment was during Trump's tenure? Moreover, Trump immediately jumped out to pressure the Federal Reserve, saying that with such good data, they should cut interest rates, or else cut off all trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the US. This gave Powell a way out. Also, Musk's spending has already started, indicating they are preparing for the November midterm elections. So, in the near future, is it possible that the war will stop, crude oil prices will fall, and inflation will ease? Then Powell can use this opportunity to maintain interest rates or even restart rate cuts if the data is excellent, so buy the dip. This is just my personal opinion for reference only. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH $CORE Rumors About Multiple Exchanges Delisting CORE: Clarifying Delisting VS Temporary Suspension,
Circulating in the community is a list of many exchanges "delisting CORE," causing panic for many who see it directly. Here, we need to distinguish two completely different matters: permanent delisting of trading pairs vs. temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals during a hard fork maintenance. The community messages mix these two, amplifying the panic.
📝 Information Breakdown
1. Permanent Delisting (a few small and medium platforms)
KuCoin, Phemex, TEBBIT, CoinEx and some smaller exchanges chose to delist CORE trading pairs and close deposits and withdrawals after the vulnerability incident, which is a platform's independent decision.
2. Mainstream Large Platforms: Only temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals during the hard fork, not delisted
OKX, Coinbase, Bitget, LBank, Bithumb, Coinone:
During the hard fork upgrade window, network deposits and withdrawals were temporarily closed to prevent fork confusion and token disorder. This is a standard risk-avoidance operation by exchanges when a public chain has bugs.
Now that the hard fork has been completed, mainstream platforms like OKX have fully restored deposits and withdrawals, and trading pairs remain normal; this is not a permanent delisting.
OKX only delisted the "on-chain coin-earning staking products," while spot trading and deposit/withdrawal functions have returned.
⚠️ Key Points That Are Easily Misleading
1. Mixing "temporary suspension for maintenance" and "permanent delisting" together gives the false impression that many top exchanges are collectively abandoning CORE, which is misinformation spread in the community.
2. Some small and medium exchanges choosing to delist objectively reflects a shift in risk assessment after the incident, which is a real negative factor.
3. Although mainstream exchanges have resumed services, after the vulnerability incident, institutions and exchanges will raise risk control thresholds for the project, making future listings and collaborations more cautious.
Market Reality Insights
- The negative impact has already been priced in through a round of price digestion, but continued delisting by smaller exchanges will reduce trading channels and liquidity, which is a medium- to long-term suppressive factor.
- Do not panic excessively over rumors of "all exchanges delisting," nor completely ignore the real risk of delisting by some platforms.
- Distinguish facts: major exchanges have resumed trading and deposits/withdrawals; some small and medium exchanges have permanently delisted.
Summary: The vulnerability incident indeed brought costs to CORE at the exchange level, but the online rumor of "top exchanges collectively delisting" is information confusion. When reading news, prioritize official exchange announcements and do not directly copy group chat screenshots.Ridiculously high!
Robinhood Chain's single-day DEX trading volume hit $1.69 billion
Accounting for 17% globally
But its own users only contribute 1%-2%
Pure crypto-native users are playing
Robinhood insiders haven't woken up yet
TVL up 90% in thirty days
Ranked twelfth across the entire network
Uniswap intermediated 77% of the trading volume
This chain is becoming Uniswap's backyard
I'm watching closely
Waiting for Robinhood's own users to truly enter the market
That will be the real signal of retail FOMO
Right now it's all whales and scientists quietly playing
If its own users don't take the baton, how long can this chain last?
$HOOD #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 On nonfarm payroll night, bulls were sent off by a single data line. During that wave of liquidations in the early morning, how many people shouted about watching bulls during the day and were woken up by liquidation notices at night? I actually didn't sleep well last night and watched the market until 3 a.m. $BTC was firmly holding at 81,000 before the data release, and $ETH at 2,530, the market was still digesting Waller's hawkish statement. At that time, the market felt like everyone was waiting for a direction, but no one dared to make the first move. But when the nonfarm payroll data came out, 162,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding expectations. This figure was not simply "better than expected"—it directly shattered the market's illusions about a rate cut in September. Rate hike bets heated, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets were under full pressure. The logic was terrifyingly clear: good jobs → inflation worries → rate hike expectations → strong USD → crypto dropped. $BTC directly fell below 78,000, a daily drop of nearly 4.5%. $ETH worse, sliding from 2530 all the way to around 2400, down more than 5%, now barely catching its breath at 2456. $SOL was not spared either; the entire market seemed to have a collective downturn switched. The harshest was that round of liquidation. In less than an hour, over $200 million was liquidated across the internet, with long positions contributing 186 million. I had previously placed a long ETH position near 2400, with a stop-loss set at 2350, narrowly avoiding disaster, but a friend's heavy long position in the group was immediately wiped out, causing the account to shrink by 40%. At times like this, technical analysis basically fails. Drawing lines, checking support, counting waves—all of it#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Just finished reviewing the US August nonfarm payroll data, honestly a bit surprising.
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market originally expected less than 60,000, massively exceeding everyone's estimates. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. Previously, the forecast range given by institutions was at best 121,000, but the actual data went beyond the upper limit of that range.
Once the data was released, market sentiment immediately shifted. The probability of a rate hike in September in the swap market jumped to over 60%, whereas before the release it was about 50%.
However, it’s not time to draw final conclusions yet. Fed Governor Waller clearly stated that inflation is the key: if inflation improves, they will hold steady; if inflation remains high, they tend to raise rates. The real highlight is the August CPI on September 11, with the September FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th.
There is already divergence in the market. Bank of America treats the nonfarm data as an appetizer, believing a rate hike in September is very likely; Morgan Stanley has the opposite view, predicting rates will remain unchanged, estimating core CPI month-over-month at 0.23%.
In short, nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the real direction will be decided by the upcoming inflation data. Strong employment gives hawks confidence, but whether inflation keeps pace is the ultimate deciding factor.
Curious to hear everyone’s thoughts: do you think the CPI will push for a rate hike, or will it cause the Fed to pause?This looks more like macro repricing than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down 1.36%, with ETH and SOL slightly weaker as August payrolls beat expectations. That keeps policy sensitivity elevated, so I would treat the next rates signal as more important than today's red tape.
Not advice, just analysis.Reviewing the brutal market upheaval on September 4th (Friday Nonfarm Payroll day):
The nonfarm data exploded with +162,000 (expected only 56,000), nearly 3 times the forecast! Market expectations instantly reversed from rate cuts to hikes, with CME betting the probability of a September rate hike soaring above 60%. All the overnight short squeeze gains were completely wiped out by this blow.
BTC fell accordingly to $79,692, and SOL led the drop with a 3.5% plunge. This spike liquidated a large amount of long positions chasing highs. Although the daily-level major long structure hasn't completely broken down, the top momentum has weakened for three consecutive times.
On the macro side, the restart of rate hike expectations intensifies risk-off sentiment; geopolitically, the Middle East situation is heating up, and the long-short battle has entered a white-hot phase.
Current trading discipline must be strictly followed:
Never blindly bottom-fish: don't try to catch a falling knife around $79K by going long on the dip.
Never blindly short naked: avoid naked shorts at 1H oversold rebounds; wait for price to truly break below $78K for confirmation or for a rebound to meet resistance with volume before following on the right side.
Position management: with event week and next week's upcoming CPI release, absolutely do not go full position to tough it out.
#BTC #Bitcoin #NonfarmShock #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingLog$BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
The blockbuster nonfarm payroll data has landed, directly shaking global asset pricing.
In August, the US seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of less than 60,000 and the institutional forecast ceiling of only 121,000. The actual data significantly shattered the expected ceiling, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. This employment report, which far exceeded market imagination, means that the US labor market remains resilient and has not shown the cooling signals previously feared by the market.
After the data release, rate hike expectations quickly heated up. CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose directly from 50% to over 60%, with market betting sentiment clearly shifting. However, the nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the core determinant of the Fed's final decision remains inflation. Just the day before, Waller clearly stated that whether inflation can continue to fall toward the 2% target is the decisive condition for a September rate hike.
The market's two major investment banks have already presented completely opposite views. Bank of America likens the nonfarm payrolls to an "appetizer" for the market, with the upcoming August CPI report next week being the "main course" that will decide the direction, still predicting a high probability of a September rate hike; meanwhile, Morgan Stanley holds a different view, estimating the core CPI month-over-month at only 0.23%, believing the Fed will ultimately choose to keep rates unchanged.
Strong employment has become an established fact, but inflation data still leaves huge uncertainty. The CPI report on September 11 will become the biggest market focus in the coming week. This inflation data will either follow the logic of strong employment to firmly confirm rate hike expectations or provide a cooling signal, prompting the Fed to once again pause action at the September policy meeting.
The divergence between bulls and bears has already widened, with gold, BTC, the US dollar, and US Treasuries all entering a critical window. Until the CPI dust settles, the market's volatile game will not end; the real big move awaits the inflation data reveal next week.the Robinhood Chain question from @termix_ai made me think less about expansion and more about fragmentation.
BNB Chain and Base already give multiple settlement environments. adding another chain could widen distribution, especially if new kinds of tokenized assets and onchain agents live there.
but every extra chain also creates a harder design problem.
does an agent build one reputation across the whole market, or several reputations depending on where it transacts.
#DailyOrbit $ZEC ZEC Cost: In the early days, it could be mined with GPUs, but now it has entered the ASIC miner era. The current main model is the Z15 Pro, with a single unit hashrate of about 840 KSol/s, power consumption of 2780 watts, requiring about 66.7 kWh of electricity per day. Machines are usually placed in professional mining farms, and costs include not only electricity but also hosting, maintenance, and other expenses.
Zcash produces a block approximately every 75 seconds on average, with each block yielding 1.25 ZEC. Calculated, the entire network's miners collectively earn about 1440 ZEC per day. These coins are not all retained by miners. Mining farms must pay electricity bills daily, and miners usually sell part of their output; how much they keep depends on electricity prices, financial strength, and market outlook.
Based on an estimated total network hashrate of about 24–25 GSol/s in late August 2026, a single Z15 Pro can mine about 0.05 ZEC per day. If the comprehensive electricity price is $0.068–0.07 per kWh, the cost is around $90–95; if the electricity price reaches $0.1, the shutdown price would be about $136. Therefore, low electricity price mining farms can sustain longer, while miners with high electricity costs are more likely to exit when the market declines. 1. Data from ETH on-chain deposit exchanges Over 4 days, 142,800 ETH were transferred to major centralized exchanges. Based on an average price of $2,416, this amounts to $345 million. - Capital behavior: Large holdings are unlocked from offline cold wallets and staking, then collected in bulk to CEXs. The on-chain market generally regards "large transfers to exchanges" as potential sell signals. - Not all of these are immediate sell-offs: some are hedging, arbitrage, or grinding, but objectively, the amount of liquid chips available for sale on exchanges has increased significantly, raising short-term selling pressure. 2. ETF fund flows: a clear gap in scissors 1. BTC spot ETF: single-day net inflow of $101 million (9-2), BlackRock IBIT as the main buying force, with institutional funds continuing to absorb BTC holdings. 2. ETH spot ETF: Net outflow of $48.2 million during the same period, with redemptions. On one side, Bitcoin ETFs are entering with money; on the other, Ethereum ETF funds are withdrawing. Institutional funds are rebalancing positions between the two leading coins. 3. Underlying logic breakdown 1. Macro level: Nonfarm payroll data is biased, market risk aversion is rising. Within crypto assets, BTC is seen as a "safe-haven target" within the sector, with funds prioritizing to cluster in the BTC. ETH, due to DeFi, L2, and on-chain gas, has stronger cyclicality and greater elasticity, so it is prioritized for reduction during volatile markets. 2. Token Trading: Some early ETH whales and institutions took profits during this rebound to buy coinsBitcoin regains market focus, and corporate crypto asset allocation is accelerating📊
At the end of August, the crypto market rebounded, with Bitcoin rising about 23%, directly driving Bitcoin mining companies that had actively shifted to AI business back into high-beta stocks. Some mining companies' stock prices increased by 41% to 67%, outperforming many AI infrastructure companies.
Three key drivers of this surge🔑
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury expands Treasury buybacks
2️⃣ The White House signals positive crypto regulation
3️⃣ Over $1.6 billion in short positions were liquidated
A new variable worth noting - the Stablecoin Alliance💡
Twenty-one major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citibank plan to establish a new company aiming to launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, then expand to other G7 currencies for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements.
This rebound differs from previous pure capital inflows, adding two new clues: corporate balance sheet allocation and traditional financial institutions entering stablecoins. This indicates crypto assets are being incorporated into long-term strategic plans by more mainstream institutional players, not just short-term trading funds.
$BTC ← #🏛-₿-Crypto Analysis--Daily >
Market Sentiment
🟡 Cautiously Bullish
Report Date
2026-09-04
Mainline Changes
⚡ The mainline has changed — Yesterday we were worried that Ethereum ETF outflows and the escalation of the Iran situation would crush market sentiment, but today after the nonfarm payroll data blew past expectations, the crypto market rose instead of falling. Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit the largest in nearly 8 months, and the market shifted to risk-on.
🎯 Today's Focus — ZEC·Position Reversal
ZEC surged about 20% within two days, breaking through $1000. The direct trigger was short sellers reportedly losing $34 million in a single day, combined with continuous inflows into privacy pools and ZEC's price ratio against Monero accelerating upward. This looks less like leveraged speculation and more like genuine buying within the sector, so the stance was raised from cautiously optimistic to bullish.
📌 Core Themes
· Bitcoin ETF single-day inflows of $730 million, the largest in nearly 8 months, with institutions increasing positions against the trend after the nonfarm data
· The Fear & Greed Index rose to 74 points, a near one-week high, showing market sentiment clearly shifting from cautious to optimistic
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million, driving the privacy coin sector collectively stronger
· Stablecoin total market cap increased by 0.36% in 24 hours, indicating there are still new funds waiting to enter off-exchange
📰 News Highlights
· Zcash surged nearly 20% in one day, breaking $1000, short sellers lost $34 million in a single day, indicating genuine buying in the privacy coin sector rather than speculation
The market worries the Fed is more likely to raise rates, but the crypto market instead took the opportunity to rally, showing this risk appetite did not follow traditional macro logic
· Conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have damaged refineries, pushing diesel prices to historic highs, which will heighten inflation concerns and pose a medium-term risk hanging over risk assets
· The global bond market is starting to worry about inflation returning, causing selling pressure. If this concern spreads to stocks, it could eventually affect crypto market risk appetite
🏃♂️ 24h Outlook
In the next 24 hours, the market will likely continue a cautiously optimistic atmosphere, but two variables need close monitoring: first, whether the Ethereum ETF can turn today's net inflow into a true continuous trend (currently it’s just the first day turning positive after outflows). If inflows continue tomorrow, it indicates institutional confidence is truly recovering; second, market expectations about whether the Fed will raise rates in September are still in flux. If upcoming inflation data is hawkish, it could interrupt this optimism unexpectedly driven by the nonfarm data. Additionally, the privacy coin sector’s rapid rise means if ZEC and others cannot hold their new highs in the short term, profit-taking may occur. The Iran situation and diesel price highs causing inflation risks are medium-term risks that require ongoing attention.
❌ Yesterday’s Outlook·Missed
Yesterday we said strong nonfarm data might suppress risk assets and pressure Bitcoin, but after August added 162,000 jobs far exceeding expectations, Bitcoin rose instead of falling, breaking through $81,000. ETF single-day inflows of $730 million hit a nearly 8-month high, so the directional judgment was wrong. $BTC $ETH $ZEC How to operate $ETH over the weekend?
Last night's nonfarm payroll data was quite a shock; many retail investors didn't react in time and have already stopped losses or been liquidated, while Caibao chose to watch the show before entering the market, aiming for steady wins.
Although this drop was mainly due to the bearish nonfarm data, another reason is that ETH had already experienced a rally earlier, breaking through key resistance levels multiple times. There were quite a few short-term profit-taking positions. Even before the nonfarm data, funds had started positioning, so once the data didn't meet market expectations, everyone chose to take profits.
The US stock market didn't fall much at the open because after digesting the initial panic, market funds are still focused on upcoming inflation data. Tech stocks haven't experienced sustained panic either. Plus, it's the last trading day on Friday; isn't it nice for Americans to take their money and enjoy the weekend?BTC is currently around $79,600, up 23% in 30 days, with $3.5 billion net inflow into ETFs in August hitting a yearly high, looking very strong. But the Fear and Greed Index has surged from 25 (fear) a month ago to 74 (greed) — the most comfortable entry window near 58,000 in June has already passed.
More troubling is that on September 4, the non-farm payrolls came out at 162,000 (expected 53,000), pushing the rate hike probability back to 59%. BTC dropped from 82,000 to below 80,000 that day. The institutional consensus confirmation line is to hold above 83,000 for two weeks, and currently, not a single condition has been met.
Meanwhile, three major events—CPI on September 11, bill voting on the 15th, and FOMC on the 16th—are packed within two weeks. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: If you are not holding, don’t chase; wait for events to settle or for a pullback to 76,000–78,000 to build positions gradually; if you have a base position, hold it and consider partial profit-taking above 83,000. Right now, there is neither emotional discount nor trend confirmation, so it’s a no-man’s land; heavy positions are purely a bet on macro data.The U.S. Department of Labor released data on September 5 showing that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, about 2.9 times the expected value, while reversing the net decrease of 23,000 in July. The private sector added 127,000 jobs, also significantly higher than the expected 45,000 and July's 30,000. This is the most significant deviation from expectations in employment data this year, completely overturning the recent narrative of a cooling labor market.
On the wage front, average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year in August, slightly above the expected 3.0%, but slightly down from July's 3.2%, with wage growth still in a moderate contraction range. Previously, ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, leading the market to generally expect weak nonfarm data; July job openings rose to 7.27 million, and layoffs fell to the lowest since January this year, providing a leading signal for this strong nonfarm report, but it was not fully priced in.
The stronger-than-expected rebound in nonfarm data will significantly strengthen discussions about a Fed rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the ADP data release, the market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September was 62.2%; after the stronger-than-expected employment report, this probability is expected to rise further. #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expectation. As soon as this data came out, the market panicked immediately—rate hike worries reignited, Bitcoin dropped 3%, and gold plummeted by $70.
But interestingly, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of $730 million against the trend, and Trump also jumped out calling for rate cuts. This is interesting: on one side, retail investors are scared and selling off, while on the other, institutions are buying heavily.
The market is indeed panicking, but the panic is only in shallow funds.
To understand this, you need to grasp a counterintuitive logic: strong employment does not equal a healthy economy, nor does it mean the stock market should fall. $BTC $ZEC $USELESS #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 目前$TRUMP 约2.39美元，24小时成交额已经超过5.6亿美元，流通市值约6.27亿美元。看起来交易很热闹，但价格距离2025年1月创下的73.43美元高点，已经回撤约97%。 更麻烦的是，供应压力还没结束。9月18日将解锁约2869万枚TRUMP，占总供应量2.9%，价值约6800万美元，而且这批筹码全部属于内部人士。 这几天市场也盯上了Trump团队相关钱包，已有约2665万美元的SOL被转移，配合即将到来的解锁，多少让资金开始提高警惕。 所以$TRUMP 现在挺尴尬：成交量大得吓人，价格却还趴在历史高点下面；一边有特朗普这个最大的流量入口，一边又顶着持续解锁和团队钱包动向。 这种币最怕的不是没人炒，而是大家都在等别人接最后一棒。After the US non-farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stock market showed a very divided performance.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market had originally only expected 56,000, nearly three times the forecast. Once the data came out, US Treasury bonds immediately reacted, with the 10-year yield surging back to 4.8%, and market expectations for a September rate hike also rose.
Normally, this environment is definitely unfavorable for tech stocks, so last night the S&P fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3% last night, with the entire storage, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware sectors strengthening against the trend. What has really been weighing on tech stocks these days are oil prices and US Treasury yields. Oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 4.8%, and with such strong non-farm payrolls, the market naturally worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates.
Additionally, US markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the next opening is Tuesday. Next week, the real focus will no longer be on non-farm payrolls, but on CPI and PPI. The key will be whether inflation provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to continue raising rates.🚨 Nonfarm Night! 162,000 vs Expected 55,000, Rate Hike Repricing
Beijing Time September 4, 20:30, US August Nonfarm triple market expectations:
📊 New jobs 162,000 (expected about 55,000), strongest since March
📊 Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; hourly wages +0.3% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year
📊 June and July combined revised up by 55,000, "employment cooling" narrative overturned
🔁 Market immediately reprices: September rate hike probability rises from about 50% to 58.4%-60.2% (CME FedWatch, as of September 5); 2-year US Treasury yield +7.6bp, US dollar index +0.3%
💡 Transmission logic: strong employment → Fed focuses on inflation → financial conditions tighten → non-interest assets under pressure
👀 Next up: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC — CPI is the decisive variable
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $CRDO US Stock AI Leader】CRDO crashed from $308 to $170, is it a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Brothers, many have been asking about the stock (CRDO) recently. From the high of $308, it dropped all the way back to around $170, nearly a 40% pullback, which has trapped many who bought at the top. Today, I'll analyze it for you,
Outstanding performance, so why did the stock price plummet?
Revenue in the financial report grew over 114% year-over-year, and EPS also exceeded expectations, but this sell-off is essentially buying on expectations and selling on facts. Before the earnings report, the stock price had priced in too much expectation; after the good news was realized, funds took the opportunity to cash out. Coupled with recent hawkish macro interest rate expectations, high Beta tech stocks were the first to be squeezed out.
Is the core fundamental bad?
Not at all! CRDO is the absolute essential leader in high-speed interconnects for data centers (AEC active copper cables, optical chips). As Nvidia and major cloud giants continue to stack computing power, the communication transmission bottleneck between servers becomes even more prominent. Its industry prosperity and performance growth remain strong, and Wall Street institutions still anchor their target price around $280.
Operation advice: Avoid blindly leveraging on the left side: The first phase after a sharp drop usually comes with intense volatility, and blindly opening high-leverage long positions can easily get stopped out by intraday shakeouts.
Currently, focus on the support line around $158 - $160. If it can complete a low-volume consolidation or form a bullish divergence in this area, it will be a very cost-effective opportunity for phased buying For $BTC, this is the most important signal to watch in the past two months.
First, what is this? The red line is STH-MVRV, the short-term holders' unrealized profit multiple; 1 is the cost line, and 1.15 means an average profit of 15%. The blue line is its own 155-day moving average. When the red line is above the blue line, the area below is filled green; when reversed, it is filled red.
So this green area is not about valuation, it’s about momentum. It only answers one question: Is the situation of this batch of new money getting better or worse?
In June, STH-MVRV was 0.84, meaning new entrants were on average losing 16%, with no green area at all. Now the red line has crossed above the blue line, and the green area is the thickest this year.
I acknowledge this signal; directionally, it stands on my side, but two things must be said together.
First, the red line has now surged to around 1.15, and Glassnode’s old experience is that once this number exceeds 1.2 to 1.4, the risk of profit-taking rises significantly. The green is green, but it’s not far from the upper edge of the comfort zone.
Second, from August 18 to 28, the 30-day distribution volume of long-term holders rose from 174,500 to 281,900 coins, while LTH-MVRV increased from 1.31 to 1.64. New money is making profits, old money is selling, and the sellers are targeting this batch of new money.
The green area tells you "the trend is moving this way," not "buying at this price now won’t get you stuck."
The cost of confusion between these two things is usually paid by those who chase in.