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In just the past week, market bets on a September rate hike jumped from less than 50% to over 80%. Such a rapid price change is rare in the Fed's observation history over the past year, and Bitcoin and a host of crypto concept stocks have already started to pay for this possibility. Last week, at its July 29 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting to keep it unchanged. But unlike previous decisions that were almost certain, this time the voting divisions were clear. Cleveland Fed President Hammarck, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all voted against an immediate 25 basis point rate hike, arguing that inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five consecutive years. Federal Reserve Chair Wash used a rather vivid phrase at the post-meeting press conference, saying he "demanded a decent family infight, and indeed got it." This divergence directly boosted market expectations for a rate hike in September. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, just one week before this meeting, the market priced in a rate hike in September at less than 53%, but within just one week, as oil prices climbed and inflation concerns intensified, the probability jumped to 82%, now at 73%. The 9-to-3 vote represents a growing hawkish push for rate hikes within the committee, and the market widely interprets this as a significant increase in the likelihood of a rate hike in September. EyesETF had a net inflow of $170 million in one day$BTC Why is it still grinding at $63,500?
SoSoValue data shows that on August 3rd (Eastern Time), US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $170 million. BlackRock IBIT attracted $111 million in a single day, accounting for about 65.3% of the total; Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $33.3598 million, accounting for about 19.6%. The two products contributed a combined $144.36 million, absorbing 84.9% of the new funds for the day.
Currently, IBIT's cumulative net inflow is $60.593 billion, FBTC's cumulative net inflow is $9.953 billion; the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $77.58 billion, accounting for about 6.06% of BTC's total market capitalization. However, the $170 million inflow in a single day is only about 0.22% of the ETF's total assets, which can improve sentiment but is difficult to directly push prices up on their own.
Liquidity is not weak, and the candlestick chart has not fully coordinated for now.
BTC is currently trading at about $63,518, with a 24-hour trading range of $62,410–$64,249, representing a range of about 2.95%. On the one-hour chart, prices remain below the MA5 at $63,596, MA10 at $63,715, and MA20 at $63,692, with short-term moving averages not yet forming a smooth bullish alignment. This indicates that ETFs are receiving shares, but spot selling pressure, short-term cash-out, and derivative positions are still being absorbed by each other.
Next, let's look at $63,990–$64,250. BTC is only about 0.74% behind the former, but this is precisely the level where it has repeatedly faced resistance recently. Only by holding firm on increased volume can BTC have a chance to further test $64,800 and even the previous high of $65,390.
Below, attention is on $63,000 and the support zone between $62,410 and $62,227. The current price is about 1.77% from the 24-hour low, so the buffer is not very thick. Once it falls below it, ETF bullish news may only turn into "someone taking over, but that doesn't mean it will rise immediately."
Additionally, the current BTC contract open interest is about 2.016 billion USDT, with a funding fee rate of 0.01%. There is bullish interest in the market, but it is far from being extremely crowded. My judgment is: the medium-term capital structure is improving, and the short-term phase is still in the range-bound digestion phase. ETF inflows are based on the underlying logic, not a remote control for hourly candlesticks.
So don't rush to chase after $170 million. Let's wait for BTC to actually reclaim around $64,000; price confirmation is always more important than news headlines.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 🚨 $BTC BCT, we've got a new weapon — borrow USDT without selling your coins! 💥
📊 This is the kind of infrastructure that quietly boosts the purchasing case. Any BTC holder facing short-term cash need can now borrow up to 1,000 USDT without compromising their stake — and the collateral can remain in Simple Earn, while still earning interest as long as the loan is valid. 💡
💥 This means fewer forced sellers and more HODLers doubling their positions. A small loan, but a big psychological shift in the market. 🔍 The real question is whether this move will become the blueprint for linking CeFi liquidity to self-custody liquidity.
💬 Is this a sign that Tier 1 trading platforms are basing their next session demand on BTC-backed leverage? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risks. 🛡️Tonight, after the US market closed, SpaceX's first earnings report after going public will be released, marking the final critical point in the bullish and bearish battles. This SPCX trade was probably the worst failure I've made this year. I originally just wanted to sneak a bite and leave, but fate and man proved to be the reason for losing due to greed. On the day the index entered on July 6th, the morning session was already going out and then back, which has stuck me ever since. Numerically, it's too certain they'll give another 175 position, and logically, the first round of the three major IPOs this year won't be so disappointing.
As a result, Murphy's Law kicked in, and the most feared thing indeed happened. With the Starship 13 launch repeatedly postponed, the stock price first fell below the 135 issue price, then below 110, halved, but fortunately it held onto the triple-digit mark. But whether this final single-digit dignity will be broken by the massive volume after the earnings report remains to be seen.
Currently, the logic behind SPCX short positions is that the income in the tens of billions is far too low compared to the valuation of over 1 trillion yuan, and by the 6th, over 900 million new shares will be unlocked, creating huge selling pressure.
Therefore, the window period for short squeezes for bulls is actually very short and the starting conditions are strict. Short squeezes must achieve: total revenue around $7.2 billion, AI revenue above $2.5 billion, and EBIT losses narrowed to below $1.2 billion; Alternatively, Starlink's profits may significantly exceed expectations, and management may provide guidance on hard orders, computing power revenue, or future cash flow improvements. Judging by Musk's tone, it seems he will make an impact on Starlink, since the escalating Russia-Ukraine and Middle East wars are all about attracting customers.
To short sell, besides having strong earnings reports, overseas markets like AMD's earnings may not be great, but at least they shouldn't cause chaos. Other macro data and geopolitical tensions must also avoid unexpected tensions.
The call after the earnings call will be Musk's performance time, to see if he can ignite market sentiment by selling Starship 14 launch expectations and new milestones such as the next recovery, capture, and orbit insertion. In this way, under favorable conditions both domestically and internationally, it is best to break the unlocked selling consistency, even turning into reluctant selling, combined with bulk absorption of selling pressure, to ultimately achieve a short squeeze.
Once entering short squeeze mode, you must quickly rally with increased volume, ideally pushing above 130, which can force short positions at an average price of 140 to close out and cover positions, creating synergy.
Due to the harsh conditions, the probability of SPCX forming a short squeeze is only about 10 to 20%. Short-term players, if they see a high point on the 5th, leave first and stop betting on unlocking the 6th.
$SPCX #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted 基本面研报 $STORJ / Storj（DePIN） $3.20
本质上看：Storj（$STORJ）综合评分 51/100，评级 叙事重于落地。 三层拆开看，公司团队 有现金储备， 协议网络 已有付费使用痕迹， 代币 捕获已落地。
基本面拆解：Storj（代币 $STORJ），DePIN 赛道。 主打 分布式云存储。 对标 FIL、AR。 传统做算力租赁的是 AWS、CoreWeave 这些巨头，按 GPU 小时计费，A100 月租金 1.2-2.5 万美元，贵且门槛高。 链上方案把算力碎片化竞价，供应商无需中心化审核，闲置 GPU 变成可用供给。 客单价 50-500 美元/月，需 USDC 或法币结算。叙事驱动型赛道，熊市使用量砍 60-80%。定位端到端垂直平台。 产品落地：协议层已正式运行，链上仪表盘显示协议手续费正在累积，已有付费使用痕迹。 最新版本 未查到，近 90 天有效提交 60 次。
用户层面，地址 MAU 未披露，DAU 未披露，24h 成交额 $80.00M，TVL 未查到。 钱包地址不等于自然人月活，大额地址集中持仓会高估真实用户量。 收入端，用户费用 未披露， 供应方收入大约是用户费用的 80-90%（归 LP 和节点）， 协议金库收入 $2.00M， 代币持有人回购销毁年化 无销毁机制。 24h 成交额是业务流水不是收入。 公司赚钱不等于协议赚钱，协议赚钱不等于代币持有人赚钱。 代码侧，90 天有效提交 60 次，活跃贡献者 25 人， 最新版本 未查到。GitHub 是 A 级证据可以直接核验。 投资背景，公司股权融资看 PitchBook/Crunchbase（A 级）， 代币私募公募看白皮书和释放曲线以及链上解锁合约（A 级）， 做市商和生态资助是 B 级不代表技术 VC 长期持仓， 技术集成看 API/SDK 接入证据（B 级）， 战略合作和 Logo 墙是 D 级。 NVIDIA GPU 被使用不等于 NVIDIA 投资，交易所上线不等于交易所战略投资。
代币侧，总量 1,300,000,000，流通 950,000,000（73.1%）， FDV $4.20B，下次解锁 2026-Q4（占流通 +3.50%）， 销毁回购年化 无明确回购销毁。用产品必须买币？部分需要，中等价值捕获（质押/折扣/治理）。 和同行放一起看（统一口径，不跨赛道乱比）： 流通市值方面，Storj $3.00B，FIL 未披露，AR 未披露。 FDV 方面，Storj $4.20B，FIL 未披露，AR 未披露。 年化收入方面，Storj $2.00M，FIL 未披露，AR 未披露。 月活地址或用户方面，Storj 未披露，FIL 未披露，AR 未披露。 数字以公开数据快照为准，部分缺失由官方自报或行业口径补。 估值，流通市值 $3.00B，FDV $4.20B， P/S 1500.0x，FDV 除以收入 2100.0x。 悲观看 $3.00B 打 5-7 折，中性区间震荡， 乐观看收入翻倍、销毁落地、企业客户进来，FDV 对应 P/S 与头部对齐。 落到最终：基本面扎实（评分 51/100）。代币价值捕获已落地（回购/销毁/Gas）。 流通市值相对基本面偏贵，透支预期，FDV 温和。 三大风险：短期大额解锁砸盘、协议收入长期归零、代币需求仅靠激励（激励断即使用量崩）。 后面重点看：协议手续费周度、销毁金额、活跃地址留存、TVL/贷款余额、GitHub 版本发布。 以上判断基于公开数据，不构成任何投资建议。关键指标大幅偏离时结论需修正。
基本面拆完了，市场怎么走另说。
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit1. Market Trends: $BTC rebounded close to 64,000, $ETH clearly lagging behind
$BTC Tuesday (August 4), Asian morning trading briefly approached $64,000, with an intraday high above $64,100, up about 2% from the previous day, and rebounding from a low of $62,250.
$ETH clearly lagging behind, hovering around $1,865, with only a slight intraday gain, still down about 1% over the past 7 days, making it the only major cryptocurrency to be in a weekly downtrend. $BNB rose 1.5% to nearly $591, with a 7-day gain of nearly 5%, leading the mainstream currency. $SOL rose more than 1% to nearly $74.
2. Two major bearish factors are pressing down, $BTC to withstand the rebound
Negative Factor 1: Strategy is selling its coins at a loss. Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin corporate holder, disclosed on Monday that it sold 1,638 $BTC between July 27 and August 2, cashing out about $105 million, at an average price of $63,957, far below its average holding cost of $75,419. This is the third reduction since 2026, and it has not increased its holdings for over five weeks.
Negative Factor 2: The Coldcard vulnerability is still being swept up for coins. The affected firmware generation addresses experienced a fourth round of swept, with about 449 $BTC transferred from 709 addresses. The market has temporarily slowed down, but the event is not over yet.
3. Futures Market: $ETH bears suffered a heavy blow
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network amounted to $219 million, long positions $66.4 million, and short liquidations $153 million. $ETH severe bear stamping—of the $59.08 million liquidation, **63.55%** came from shorts**, and the price rebound dealt a devastating blow to bearish traders. If $ETH falls below $1,772, the cumulative long liquidations on mainstream CEXs could reach $840 million.
4. ETF funds: $BTC net outflow, internal disagreements arise $ETH
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $265 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $11.4178 million. However, BlackRock Staked $ETH ETF ($ETHB) saw a single-day net inflow of $5.7791 million, indicating that institutions still have disagreements over $ETH.
5. Market Observation
$BTC rebounded from 62,250 to 64,100, and under two major bearish pressures, it still managed to rally, indicating decent support in the 62,000-63,000 range. However, 64,000 has failed to hold three times**—this level has been lost twice in the past three days. If it falls a third time, it could mean that each time it falls below 62,500, the willingness to buy is decreasing. $ETH weak to keep up, once $BTC surges and retreats, $ETH and Shanzhai may be the first to come under pressure.
Key price levels: $BTC above 64,000-64,200, below 63,000-62,500; $ETH above 1,880-1,900, below 1,830-1,850.
#$BTC #$ETH #$BNB #$SOL #加密货币 #每日新闻Currently, the total global stablecoin size is about $295.5 billion, with monthly on-chain transfers reaching $4.5 trillion. By comparison, U.S. money market fund assets have exceeded $8.4 trillion. BlackRock's two newly launched products are attempting to connect these two markets, which are about 28 times larger in scale.
The first is called BSTBL OnChain Shares. It is not a new fund starting from scratch, but rather adding on-chain shares to the existing BlackRock Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund.
As of August 3, this underlying fund had a size of about $6.415 billion, with investments focused on cash, U.S. Treasuries up to 93 days, and overnight repo backs guaranteed by Treasury bonds. Its institutional share 7-day SEC yield is 3.53%, with a weighted average maturity of only 8 days, and both daily and weekly liquid asset ratios are 100%.
On-chain shares are first deployed on Ethereum, with BNY Mellon responsible for transfer and tokenization services, allowing qualified investors to transfer their shares between approved wallets.
The second BRSRV is more directly aimed at digital-native institutions. It launched on August 3, with an initial size of $50 million, a minimum investment of $3 million, and a net fee rate of 0.17%. The first day of holdings shows that all assets are U.S. Treasury instruments, supporting daily dividend reinvestment and multi-chain access, with Securitize handling transfer and tokenization.
Both funds limit the weighted average maturity to within 60 days, the weighted average maturity no more than 120 days, and plan to meet the qualified reserve asset requirements for payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act.
However, "dedicated to stablecoin reserves" is a simplified term in the discussion. BSTBL remains the on-chain share of existing money market funds, while BRSRV can also serve other digital asset scenarios. A more precise change is that BlackRock packages traditional money market funds as on-chain reserve tools that stablecoin issuers can directly hold, transfer, and manage.
This market is not small. Currently, Tether manages about $177.2 billion in stablecoins, while Circle manages about $69.3 billion, together accounting for about 83% of the global stablecoin market. Once more issuers are required to allocate short-term Treasuries, repos, and highly liquid funds according to unified rules, competition will extend from "who issues stablecoins" to "who manages the reserves behind them."
BlackRock's cash strategy assets have approached $1.073 trillion. This time, it is not entering the stablecoin front but a larger, more stable reserve management team.
Going forward, three data points can be observed: the actual net inflows of the two on-chain shares, whether the stablecoin issuer becomes the main holder, and whether the fund shares can truly be used for cross-platform settlement and collateralization. Only when funds enter can on-chain integration be more than just a new package.
#贝莱德推两只基金, dedicated to stablecoin reserves Recently, many friends have privately messaged me complaining: BTC has been falling continuously, and my dollar-cost averaging accounts have been floating with losses for a long time. The more I invest, the more anxious I become, and I can't help but want to stop investing or even cut losses to exit. Most people lose money with regular investing, not because their strategies fail, but because they can't understand the smile curve and can't withstand the psychological torment of a bear market. Today, based on cycle patterns, I will thoroughly explain the underlying logic of the smile curve and share practical methods for ordinary people to cultivate a fixed investment mindset. 1. What is the BTC dollar-cost averaging smile curve? Crypto-exclusive U-shaped profit logic: A complete BTC bull and bear cycle perfectly replicates the smile curve of regular investing. The overall trend follows a U-shaped arc with high ends and a deep drop in the middle, resembling a smiling smile, divided into three complete stages: Left side downward bottoming period (accumulated losses and chips) falls from the bull market peak, prices continue to fall, account accounts keep showing unrealized losses, and this is the stage when most hoarders break their mindset. But the core advantage of dollar-cost averaging lies here: with a fixed amount buy, the lower the price, the more BTC tokens the same amount of capital can buy, continuously diluting the overall average position price. The longer and deeper the decline, the more chips accumulated at low prices will be, and the greater the potential for future rebound gains. Many mistakenly think that a drop means a loss, but in reality, the market is giving away low-priced chips at a discount. Bottoming Phase (Concentrated Accumulation of Chips) Long-term sideways decline with no improvement, the market is filled with pessimistic negative news—this is the bottom of the smile curve. Those who persist with continuous regular investments will collect the lowest-cost chips throughout the cycle; Those who pause or cut losses lose all their low-priced shares on the left, making subsequent market rebounds difficult to recoverSM's manufacturing sector hits a four-year high, but why are US Treasury yields falling instead?
This time, the market has shown an interesting divergence:
Economic data tells you "the U.S. economy is strong," but the bond market tells you "the future may not be so tight."
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, the highest since 2022, while market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly increased.
According to traditional logic:
Strong economic → increased inflationary pressures → Fed hawkish → US Treasury yields rose.
But the actual trend is the opposite:
10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have retreated.
Which direction should you really trust?
My judgment is:
In the short term, focus on the bond market; in the medium term, look at economic data.
Why might the bond market be more worth watching this time?
Because PMI reflects the current economic state, while bond trading reflects future expectations.
Strong manufacturing data indicates that corporate activity remains resilient, but it does not mean inflation will spiral out of control again in the coming months.
What the market truly cares about is:
Will future energy prices, consumer demand, and the job market drive the Fed to continue tightening?
This time, the easing of US-Iran relations led to a 7% drop in oil prices in a single day, directly easing market concerns about a second inflation.
In other words:
ISM offers "past and present",
Oil prices and bond yields trade "the future."
For the 5.3% position on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, I lean more toward the following:
It is more like a phased top rather than a new long-term bottom.
There are three reasons:
First, the greatest pressure on long-term yields comes from fiscal deficits and debt supply.
This will not disappear, so it is difficult for 30-year Treasuries to quickly return to the post-pandemic low-yield era.
On the other hand, above 5.3% have already started to reflect significant negative factors.
The market has already traded in advance:
High interest rates will persist longer;
Fiscal pressure is expanding;
The Fed will not cut rates quickly.
When market expectations are fully traded, any marginal weakening factor can easily cause yields to fall.
Second, there is still room for a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
The market is now discussing the rising probability of rate hikes, essentially because economic data is strong.
However, if employment data worsens or CPI continues to decline, the market will resume trading rate cuts.
Historically, the bond market has often acted earlier than the Federal Reserve.
Third, the decline in geopolitical risks has reduced the inflation premium.
Previous oil price increases essentially added an inflation insurance layer to the bond market.
Now that oil prices are retreating, it effectively reduces upward pressure on yields.
For crypto assets, this data combination is actually worth paying attention to.
Many people, seeing strong ISM, think:
"Strong economic → rate hikes → crypto bearish."
But in reality, the market trades liquidity.
If a strong economy does not cause yields to break further but instead appears:
Strong economic data + falling yields,
This usually means the market is starting to believe:
The U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing, and the Federal Reserve still has room to cut rates in the future.
This environment is not bad for risk assets like BTC and ETH.
My current judgment:
The 30-year Treasury yield near 5.3% leans more toward resistance rather than a trend breakout confirmation.
In the short term, the market may continue to focus on:
"Strong data drives hawkish expectations"
And
"Oil price decline drives easing expectations"
Engage in strategic maneuvering.
But what truly determines the direction is not ISM's data, but what comes next:
Whether the CPI continues to decline;
Whether employment continues to cool;
Will the long-term U.S. Treasury sector break through the 5.3%-5.5% range?
If yields cannot continue to rise, the market may be preparing in advance for the next phase of liquidity improvement.
For the crypto market, what matters most now is not fear a single strong data release, but rather observing:
Can a strong economy continue to push real interest rates higher?
If not, the window for risk assets may be opening. $BTC $ETH "Bear Survival Guide"
Today is August 4, 2026. $BTC has pulled back more than 50% from its historical high of 126,200, has touched a low of 57,800, and is currently fluctuating between 62,000 and 64,000. In terms of pullback strength, the maximum drawdown was about 51–53%, the mildest in history, previously reaching 70–80%+
In terms of timing, this bear market has lasted about 9–10 months, with historical cycles averaging about 384 days after the peak. Combined with some important milestones in the second half of the year, most believe there may be signs of a bottom around October. However, signals remain just signals; in extreme market conditions, further testing of previous lows or deeper support may not be ruled out. So whether October will be a bull-bear turning point is really hard to say; the bottom is almost there.
Usually, by the end of each bear market, most people have finished cursing, left, or even quit the circle, vowing never to touch coins again. Those who truly survive to the bull market are those who continue to accumulate in despair.
What should we do in a bear market?
1. DCA Dollar-Cost Averaging: Up to 50% of cash/stablecoins can be used for regular investment, with fixed amounts and periods to buy BTC/ETH/OKB/HYPE/XAU, etc. The average cost of DCA in a bear market is far better than buying the dip all at once. Don't try to buy the bottom perfectly; just try to lower the average cost.
2. Reserve sufficient stablecoin ammunition: keep at least 40-50% cash/stablecoins. Xiong Mo often had the legendary last drop, saving bullets to increase positions when there was real panic.
3. Deleveraging: Your main assets must not be leveraged or revolving loans. If you have a hobby of playing contracts, be sure to manage your positions properly. Don't lose big over small gains, and don't blindly increase your position and end up losing large amounts before dawn.
4. Be prepared for a prolonged battle: No one can predict when the bottom will come. Maybe in October, after hitting the bottom, it can fluctuate for a month or so before it can continue to decline. In front of capital, retail investors have no strength to resist; unless the last batch of chives is cut off, the ground won't be turned over again.
Spring always returns, scattering new chive seeds, but the roots from the previous batch are nowhere to be seen.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard So far, the re-short is reacting well, and I'm still expecting further downside.
This is my third attempt shorting the $64K region for a move to new lows. The first two trades ended at break-even, but this setup continues to look favorable.
Some turbulence around Tuesday's NY open is expected, but my higher-timeframe bias remains bearish, particularly on the daily chart.
With MMD on $ETH still persisting, order flow looking overextended, and key local resistance levels (such as Monday's high) continuing to hold, the current price action still supports the short thesis.
For now, I'm staying patient and maintaining a bearish bias unless the market proves otherwise.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise #贝莱德推两只基金, dedicated to stablecoin reserves
BlackRock's move this time appears to push two funds, but in reality, it is quietly carving out its own territory in the stablecoin market.
Both products, BSTBL and BRSRV, are invested in cash, short-term US Treasuries, and repurchase agreements, structurally fully aligning with the GENIUS Act's compliance reserve requirements. They don't issue tokens directly, but provide ready-made asset management solutions to stablecoin issuers. Anyone who wants to comply has to use my product—this approach is even tougher than issuing the token itself.
Stablecoin issuers essentially profit from the interest rate spread—users deposit stablecoins, issuers use reserves to buy US Treasuries, earning the interest rate spread. Previously, Tether and USDC managed this money themselves; now BlackRock says, 'Let me manage the money, the threshold is lower, compliance is easier.'
For the crypto community, this means the underlying assets of stablecoins are shifting from "offshore proprietary trading" to "Wall Street custody." USDC is already deeply tied to BlackRock, while USDT still manages its own reserves, including Bitcoin and gold, and the compliance paths on both sides are beginning to diverge.
The real issue worth considering is that as the underlying reserves of stablecoins are increasingly managed by giants like BlackRock, issuers' profit margins will be squeezed, but the stablecoin's own security may actually be higher. BlackRock's move has no impact today, but is gradually changing the underlying way the market operates.
What do you think? $BTC $BICO $SOL $SNDK
SanDisk's earnings report approaches, funding rates turn negative: Is the market panicking, or is it preparing in advance?
As Sandisk (SNDK)'s earnings report approaches, market sentiment is beginning to show clear divergence. On one hand, some funds have started betting early on the earnings market performance; On the other hand, the funding rate in the futures market turned negative, and some early bulls chose to withdraw their funds, raising concerns about short-term trends. Sandisk's previous performance growth mainly benefited from data center demand and AI infrastructure construction, with data center business growth becoming a key market focus in the company's financial report.
So, what does it really mean for the funding rate to turn negative?
Many traders, upon seeing a "negative funding rate," immediately react with bearishness. But in reality, a negative funding rate does not necessarily mean prices will definitely fall.
The funding rate essentially reflects the bullish and bearish forces in the futures market. If there is a large amount of short selling capital and the bears need to pay the bulls, it indicates that short-term market sentiment is cautious.
However, in some market conditions, negative funding rates may actually act as reversal signals.
The reason is simple:
When most market participants start to bear and short positions are concentrated, if the price does not continue to fall but instead rises, a large number of short positions may be forced to stop losses and exit, triggering a "bear stampede" and driving prices up rapidly.
This is also why many institutions like to focus on extreme funding rates.
From SNDK's current market logic, the core conflict is not the earnings report itself, but how much the market has traded in advance on expectations.
If the earnings report continues to demonstrate strong demand for AI storage, such as continued growth in the data center business, the market may revive valuation expectations, driving a rebound in stock prices.
However, if the financial report is good but falls short of the market's crazy expectations, there may also be a situation where "positive news is realized."
For crypto traders, this event is also of reference value.
Because SNDK represents the hottest AI infrastructure sector in the current market, and the performance of AI tech stocks will influence overall risk asset sentiment. When Nvidia, semiconductors, and cloud computing sectors strengthen, capital risk appetite usually increases, and BTC, ETH, and AI-related tokens are also easily affected.
Conversely, if the AI sector undergoes a major correction, the market may enter a safe-haven mode, and crypto assets could face short-term pressure.
At present, the market is engaged in a game of maneuvering:
Bulls bet the AI cycle continues, while bears bet on overheated valuations.
A negative funding rate indicates that short-term investors are becoming more cautious, but it also means bearish sentiment is accumulating in the market.
For traders, the next key focus is on three signals:
First, whether the market will experience a "high open, low decline" after the financial report release;
Second, whether AI tech stocks continue to receive capital inflows;
Third, whether BTC remains strong will drive overall risk appetite.
In short:
The negative funding rate before SNDK's earnings report is not necessarily a warning sign; rather, it seems market sentiment has reached a critical point. What truly determines the direction is not the number of bearish investors, but whether the earnings report can break market expectations.
Before earnings reports, opportunities and risks often coexist. The biggest taboo is chasing rallies when emotions are at their hottest, or cutting losses when panic is at their peak.#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, the volatility narrowed
I'm Brother Ci. The trading volume of leveraged ETFs in South Korea has plummeted from 12.4 trillion won to 1.24 trillion won, down to just one-tenth. Regulators raised the threshold, leveraged products shut down, and KOSPI's volatility narrowed accordingly.
What happened?
South Korean financial authorities have raised the minimum margin for single-share leveraged ETFs from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW. The trading volume of 16 leveraged and inverse ETFs linked to Samsung and SK Hynix dropped from 12.4 trillion won on July 30 to about 1.24 trillion won on August 3, a 90% decrease. KOSPI had fallen 18% over the previous three trading days, closing up 17.91% on July 31, marking the largest gain in history, but by August 3, it had only fallen 5.12%, giving back about one-third. On August 4, the market opened slightly higher by 1.24%.
What does this mean?
Leveraged products have been the core amplifier of KOSPI's previous sharp rises and falls. After the margin threshold was raised to 30 million KRW, retail investor participation was directly cut off, trading volume dropped to only one-tenth, and KOSPI's volatility narrowed accordingly. After the leverage was removed, the market was returning to real supply and demand. Reports suggest that the storage supercycle may be delayed to 2029 to 2030. If true, real demand will gradually replace leveraged funds as the dominant price. The goal of regulation is not to suppress the market, but to squeeze out speculative leverage. A 90% drop in turnover does not mean liquidity is drying up; rather, the market is shifting from leverage-driven to fundamental-driven.
Impact on SK Hynix
Short-term emotional pressure will be suppressed. Previously, a large amount of leveraged funds had been hoarded in Samsung and SK Hynix-related ETFs. After tightening regulations, these funds are being passively exited, putting short-term pressure on SK Hynix's stock price. But in the medium term, the fundamental logic of the storage supercycle remains intact. HBM4 has already been mass-produced and shipped, long-term contracts are locked in price until 2030, and orders from NVIDIA and Anthropic are all on the way. What remains after the leverage tide is a real supply-demand gap, not an emotional bubble. SK Hynix continues to hold long positions; the leverage retreat is a short-term disturbance, and the fundamentals have not flipped.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The U.S. plans to introduce FCC restrictions on optical modules, which will increase computing costs for cloud providers and suppress risk appetite in the technology sector in the short term. The draft ban directly increases hardware replacement spending for cloud service providers like AWS, prompting capital to restructure the AI supply chain. If the rules are implemented within the year, they will push up infrastructure inflation expectations and accelerate capital inflows into domestic alternatives like Coherent and Lumentum. Subsequent focus will be on whether the FCC's release clearly includes exemption clauses or extends the transition period.
#BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
Palantir这份财报，算是给这轮AI财报季收了个漂亮的尾。
Q2营收19.4亿美元，同比涨93%，超过市场预期的18亿。净利润11亿，每股收益0.41美元，市场预期才0.35。盘后直接涨了13%到15%，股价回到142美元上方。
真正让市场兴奋的是两个数字。
美国商业收入暴增149%，干到7.64亿。美国政府收入也涨了90%，到8.09亿。美国本土总营收15.7亿，同比涨115%。同期海外收入只涨了33%，到3.625亿。
卡普在电话会上说得很直白——“我们的业务正在以从未见过的速度和规模增长”。他还补了一句，这种强劲增长“至少还能持续18个月”。
积压合同62.4亿，比去年同期翻倍。单季签了220笔百万美元以上的合同，其中73笔超千万。调整后运营利润11.9亿，利润率62%。运营现金流12.2亿，占营收63%。账上现金加短债92亿。
全年营收指引从年初的71.8亿上调到81.5亿。调整后营业利润指引从44.5亿上到48.9-49.1亿。美国商业收入全年指引从32.2亿上到34.2亿。
卡普在股东信里专门怼了那些AI实验室——“让模型在企业内部任意横行”的风险。他的逻辑很清楚：客户要的是对数据、业务流程、核心资产的控制权，不是去当某个大模型的附庸。AIP平台帮企业在自己的数据环境里部署AI，不依赖外部模型。这跟OpenAI、Anthropic那套“用我的模型”的逻辑，确实是两条路。
但Palantir也有自己的麻烦。欧洲业务增长只有33%，法国和英国已经终止了部分合同。毛利率从86%微降到85%，CFO说Q3支出还会增加。股价今年跌了30%，市场对软件行业的担忧一直没消散。
我的判断比较直接。Palantir这份财报证明了一件事——AI最大的价值不在模型本身，在帮企业把AI用起来的中间层。模型会迭代，会掉价，但帮企业把数据、流程、决策串起来的平台，才是真正能长期收钱的东西。
AIP平台目前还在早期，但149%的美国商业增速说明企业正在为这个东西付钱。积压合同翻倍也说明这不是一次性脉冲，是企业正在把它当成长期基础设施来部署。
不过这个位置追高要小心。股价今年跌了30%，说明市场对软件股的估值一直很苛刻。盘后涨13%已经price in了不少预期。Q3指引营收21.6亿，环比增速在放缓。毛利率的小幅下滑和Q3支出增加也需要盯着。
Palantir用数字证明了一件事——AI的“软件层”正在兑现收入。大盘可能还会波动，但这个赛道的基本面是真实的。至于买不买，什么时候买，那是另一回事。#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to a nearly 19-year high, and the whole market is debating whether this round of gains will peak and then pull back, or the starting point of a new upward cycle? Many crypto traders think the bond market is far from Bitcoin, but Bi Ge clearly tells everyone: long-term yields are the gravity of global asset pricing and cannot be ignored.
Let's start with the underlying logic: the 30-year term represents the market's long-term expectations for inflation, fiscal, and interest rates over the next decade or so. This round of rising yields is not just due to the Fed's rate hikes, but also by two key drivers: the US continues to expand its fiscal deficit and continues to inject massive amounts of government bonds; The market is concerned about persistent persistent inflation and is unwilling to accept long-term bonds at low prices.
Let me clarify my core view: there is a short-term chance of a temporary peak and pullback, but don't easily judge it as a major top; Whether it can sustain a medium- to long-term rally depends on two key variables.
Let's start with scenario one: the current position is the stage top
Trigger conditions: continued cooling of inflation data, easing of geopolitical conflicts, and a decline in oil prices; The market is trading expectations of an "inflation turning point," long-term bond buying is flowing back, and yields are turning downward.
What does it mean when it comes to the market? With the risk-free rate declining, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin decreases, and funds will flow back into risk assets, creating a rebound window for BTC. This kind of market is a liquidity recovery rebound, suitable for trading on low prices within a range.
Scenario 2: This is just a new starting point, and yields continue to break upward
Trigger conditions: The ongoing Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices, causing inflation to rebound repeatedly; U.S. fiscal bond issuance pressure remains high, and long-term bonds continue to be sold off, creating a negative feedback loop of "deficit expansion → rising yields."
This is a bearish environment we need to be wary of. With a stable risk-free return above 5%, funds will prioritize stable US Treasuries and continuously withdraw from highly volatile crypto assets. Bitcoin's rebound will be continuously suppressed, and each round of rally is prone to cash-out selling pressure, making it difficult to achieve sustained bull markets.
Many retail investors fall into a common misconception: focusing only on the Fed's short-term policies.
Short-term interest rates are dominated by Federal Reserve decisions, but 30-year long-term bonds are more determined by fiscal supply and long-term inflation expectations. Even if the Fed does not raise rates in the short term, as long as the market is pessimistic about the long-term outlook, long-term bond yields can continue to rise. Don't simply rely on old experience to judge the market.AMD's earnings report is very likely to pass the cutoff. Stock prices may not necessarily reward you. SpaceX's revenue may continue to grow strongly. The stock price risks are even greater. AMD
AMD's revenue in the last quarter was $10.253 billion, up 38% year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $1.383 billion, up 95% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.37, up 43% year-over-year. The largest growth comes from data centers. This segment generated $5.775 billion in revenue, a 57% year-on-year increase. This already accounts for more than half of the company's revenue. Client and gaming revenue was $3.605 billion, up 23% year-over-year. Embedded business revenue was $873 million, up 6% year-over-year. This report card looks tough. But if you compare it to the fourth quarter of 2025, the situation becomes more complicated. AMD's total revenue has basically not increased. Adjusted gross margin dropped from 57% to 55%. Adjusted operating profit fell by 11%. Adjusted earnings per share fell by 10%. Data center revenue grew 7% quarter-on-quarter, but operating profit declined. This indicates that the demand is not a problem. There is still pressure to realize profits. AMD is increasing R&D investment and preparing the supply chain for large-scale deliveries of the MI450 and Helios. Money should be spent first, income will come later. The company's financial foundation is sufficient to support this round of expansion. At the end of Q1, AMD held $12.347 billion in cash and short-term investments, with total debt of only $3.224 billion. Free cash flow reached $2.566 billion. You need to keep an eye on itA large amount of $BTC is rapidly being collected and flowing out from dense self-custody addresses, with on-chain transfer rates reaching dozens of times the usual rate, and holders racing against unknown aggressive attackers.
On-chain data shows that over $116 million in assets were forcibly transferred within days, leading to short-term increases in on-chain congestion fees and potential spot selling pressure.
This anomaly stemmed from an entropy collapse caused by a historical firmware vulnerability in Coldcard, where hackers used exhaustive algorithms to directly calculate the private key, rendering the self-hosted device's defenses ineffective.
The setback of self-custody beliefs is changing market risk appetite, forcing funds to flow back into institutional custody, which, together with the urgent migration of on-chain assets, suppresses short-term liquidity.
If migrated funds quickly settle in multisig or newly generated secure addresses without flowing into the secondary market for liquidation, the selling pressure alert will be lifted. However, if on-chain transfer rates spike abnormally again, it means this path has failed.
If panic spreads and holders choose to cash out their assets directly, spot prices will come under pressure in the short term, and a significant increase in institutional custody inflows would signal a slowdown in this trend.
When the fund collection of hacker addresses completely stops, or when security agencies confirm that the vulnerability scanning space is fully covered, market panic selling expectations will be disproven.
In the next 7 days, the most important variable to watch is the direction of funds from the fourth wave of attack addresses and whether the net inflows from major custodians experience abnormal spikes.
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields fell by #美日确认联合购汇Sandi Falls is counting down
Current Market: Explosive Rebound or Dead Cat Jump?
On August 3, SanDisk closed at $1,288.03, a single-day surge of 6.03%. It was a rollercoaster ride during trading—a low of 1,121.33 and a high of 1,316.44.
Technical Truth:
· On the daily chart, prices are still firmly suppressed by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the bearish pattern remains unbroken
· The 1288 level is right at the lower edge of the short-term resistance zone of 1360~1410, indicating an oversold recovery rather than a trend reversal
· The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, with prices repeatedly tuggling around the EMA10, but it has never been able to hold steadily
The smokescreen on the news side:
On August 4, SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first standard specification for HBF—this spurred a rebound in stock prices, but technical benefits ≠ fundamental reversal, so HBF commercialization is still far off.
Countdown to the financial report bomb:
In the post-market Q4 earnings report on August 5, market expectations were outrageously high—EPS of $34.67 and revenue of $8.42 billion. High expectations = low margin for error. Once the scenario is simply "meeting expectations" rather than "greatly exceeding expectations," the classic scenario of "buying expectations and selling facts" will play out on time.
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Four hardcore shorting logics
First, valuations have become untouched by gravity.
The 52-week low was 40.53, and the high was 2354.39—an increase of over 5700%. With a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of over 42 times, in the highly cyclical NAND industry, if this isn't a bubble, what is?
Second, the flavor at the top of the cycle becomes stronger.
Citron made a move at the beginning of the year, and the core logic is simple—the market prices a strong cyclical NAND company based on its core AI assets, which is itself the biggest mismatch.
Third, the three-star sword is already at his throat.
Samsung is aggressively targeting SanDisk's core stronghold — the high-end SSD market with its most advanced chips. The pressure on the supply side in the future will only increase.
Fourth, the chips are as crowded as a morning rush subway.
The turnover rate has long remained above 14%, making it a pure high-level gamble stock—when prices rise, they surge wildly; when they fall, they only get crazier.
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Operation Guide: What to Do Now?
▶ If there are no short positions, don't chase, wait for the position:
· Rebound to the 1300~1320 range (lower edge of the short-term resistance zone), observe whether the 1-hour chart shows signs of shrinking volume stagnation
· Signal confirmation → shorting and stop-loss above 1360
· The first target is 1180~1200, the second target is 1120
· Position ≤ 10% of total capital, leverage ≤ 3x
▶ If the price surges and breaks below 1250:
· Light position to chase short positions, stop loss at 1280, target 1180~1200
▶ Strategy for short positions at 1324.87:
· Move your stop loss up to 1320—ensure that even if it gets swept, profits remain
· Profit-taking is divided into two batches: the first batch is 1200~1220 square meters, half the area; the second batch is 1120 square meters
· Fluctuating around 1288→ keep buying if it doesn't break 1320
· Volume volume broke through 1320 and it held firm→ reducing positions by half to protect profits
· Below 1250→ rebound signals, add short positions, set an overall stop loss at 1300
Short selling profits from trending profits, while drawdowns are an inevitable cost of holding positions. Don't let a big bullish candlestick change your worldview; the high volatility before the financial report is a hunting ground, not a playground.
Think carefully.
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#SNDK #闪迪做空 #财报倒计时 #NAND周期见顶
⚠️ This article is a personal trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Volatility before the financial report is volatile, and leverage operations carry great risk. Be sure to control your position size and strictly follow stop-losses.The market was not very emotional today. BTC was lying around $62,700, with a daily change of less than 1%. ETH fluctuated around 1860, just like workers who didn't want to move on Tuesday afternoon—neither rising nor falling, just waiting for the non-farm payroll bell to ring on Friday. Beneath the calm market, there were actually two chilling incidents: first, trust in cold wallets has loosened a bit these past two days. The hardware wallet Coldcard exposed a key generation vulnerability that had been dormant for five years, losing 594 BTC overnight, with an estimated loss of $70 to 80 million across the entire network People have always thought cold wallets were the safest safe, only to discover that the lock cylinder of the safe came with a bug on the day it left the factory. This is a lot like relationships. The person you think is the most reliable is often the one you've never checked. Normally, if something doesn't happen, it becomes a big deal. For those using hardware wallets, remember to check the firmware version tonight. Don't bet all your security on one device. Second, the macro sentiment is hawkish. The Fed held steady last time, but three officials have already voted to raise rates. The probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed up to over 60%, and this week's data is especially dense Wednesday is small nonfarm, Friday is large nonfarm payrolls, expecting an increase of 88,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2. What do you think about tomorrow? My view is: don't expect a big rally in the next couple of days. The narrow range between 62,000 and 64,000 will likely require further grinding. The real direction depends on Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The data is too hot, and the Fed has an excuse to raise rates; too cold data is feared of a recession. In fact, lukewarm numbers are the most comfortable. In terms of operations,⚠️ Here are a few key signals on the market today, and I'll highlight them directly.
BTC is oscillating around 62,420, but the direction hasn't been chosen yet. The above level between 64,000 and 65,500 is a concentrated zone for short liquidation; a breakout could trigger short squeezes. There is long liquidation pressure between 62,000 and 63,000 below. The strength of bulls and bears is approaching equilibrium, with the direction depending on US-Iran negotiations and macroeconomic data. Geopolitical easing is a marginal positive, but the market has already partially priced in BTC, and BTC has not followed the US stock market's sharp rise, indicating the crypto market is waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Amazon's market value surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, with its stock price rising about 5%. Palantir's performance far exceeded expectations, with a sharp rise in after-hours trading. Meta, Microsoft, and Google all strengthened. Tech stocks rose collectively, indicating that market confidence in AI investment returns is recovering. But for the crypto market, the US stock market didn't keep up with the BTC rally, and weak ETF capital flows limited upward flexibility. In the short term, new catalysts are needed to break the deadlock.
As a core supplier of enterprise-grade SSDs, SanDisk directly benefits from the need for data center expansion. Continue holding long positions at 1206.65, move stop-loss up to 1220, target 1300 to 1350.
Next, three things to watch are: whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually reopen, which will determine oil price trends and inflation expectations. Whether Bitcoin ETF capital flows can turn positive will determine the short-term direction. SanDisk's August 5 earnings report will determine sentiment in the storage sector. Think carefully. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to intervene, with Circle closing up #Palantir营收增93%, rising 13% #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币 in after-hours trading, with its scale halved by $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.Fundamental Research Report $FIL / Filecoin (DePIN) $3.20
Conclusion First: Filecoin ($FIL) has an overall score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at the projects first: Filecoin (token $FIL), DePIN sector. Focusing on being a leader in decentralized storage. Benchmarking against AR and STORJ. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by the hour of the GPU. The A100's monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no random comparisons across sectors): In terms of circulating market cap, Filecoin $3.00B, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. For FDV, Filecoin $4.20B, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Filecoin $2.00M, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Filecoin has not disclosed, AR has not been disclosed, and STORJ has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Overall: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Score 49/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgment is based on publicly available data and does not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions need to be revised when key indicators deviate significantly.
This concludes the research report. Welcome to share your views.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitETH's hourly heat is roughly close to the long-window average, with slightly bullish bias: how to read the 21st sample
ETH popularity needs to be split into two halves: one is how many people are talking, and the other is which side the conversation leans to.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 21 mentions of ETH in one hour in the official snapshot at 16:00 (China time) on August 4, including 16 x and 5 news articles; A total of 524 times in twenty-four hours.
The latest hourly speed is 0.96 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is almost close to the 24-hour hourly average, and overall it is 'roughly close to the long-window average.' This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data.
In terms of tone, 29% are slightly bullish for one hour, 10% bearish, and about 61% neutral, so currently, the 'slightly bullish outweighs the advantage.' The 24-hour correspondence is 34% bullish and 18% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage.
What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 21 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction.
Currently, ETH's source structure is "primarily X, supplemented by news." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details.
The 24-hour source background is X 421 times, and 103 news times. Comparing it with 16.5 times per hour shows whether the new round of discussion has shifted its distribution channels. Channel changes themselves are neither positive nor negative, but they do affect the speed and verifiability of information.
For ETH, community signals are best cross-checked with two independent data lines. Network usage allows users to view transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlements, and staking changes; Market structure depends on spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and options skew. Any of these are closer to real needs than a single emotional proportion.
The 24-hour average also smooths out spikes caused by announcements and market sessions. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a quieter period; If it is above the average, it may simply be a single event with concentrated fermentation. Two to three consecutive snapshots still in the same direction look more like a continuation rather than instantaneous noise.
This set of proportions can easily be rewritten in the next snapshot. Once the sample size is scaled up, if the overly long and empty parts quickly return to close together, it means that a small amount of text was pulling the ball just now; If the tone gap is maintained and the speed continues to rise, and there is on-chain usage or transaction data to support this, then confidence will have reason to go upward.
This round of ETH doesn't need to be forced into a conclusion. The discussion generally follows the long-window average, with a slightly more dominant tone, mainly from X, supplemented by news. Just keep these three points in mind. It has yet to prove a breakout, net capital inflow, or change in on-chain demand; Whether the next round of samples can still be established after expanding is the real issue.#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
槽！今晚这破财报季就看AMD、SpaceX、Circle谁先把市场干服。
别再拿那些烂大街的“AI叙事兑现”“星链密码”“稳定币定海神针”糊弄人了，市场现在只看一件事：谁能把预期干穿，谁就是大爷；谁掉链子，谁就等着被砸。
Palantir昨天已经把规矩摆明了：93%增速+上调指引，盘后直接拉12%。现在轮到这三家上桌，别指望复制粘贴剧本，市场早就不吃那套软乎乎的“符合预期”了。
AMD这边，芯片党已经等得不耐烦了。
共识是营收113亿左右，同比暴增接近50%。重点不是数字本身，是MI系列GPU到底出货成色怎么样，数据中心能不能继续狂飙，毛利率能不能稳住。
X上的KOL直接放话：今年AMD涨了100%出头，预期被抬得老高，光是达标根本不够。还有人说“小幅涨3%-8%算正常，真正大涨得管理层放出比市场更猛的未来信号”。
甚至有人盯着Anthropic之类的大单，觉得只要AI服务器订单没崩，盘后有戏。反过来说，要是数据中心增速一软、GPU出货低于预期，或者指引只是平平，高估值立刻被重新定价，获利盘砸起来可不手软。历史数据也摆在那：近几次财报后首日涨跌参半，平均表现偏弱。别做梦会有英伟达那种20%暴涨，现在这价位，超预期才是及格线。
SpaceX更刺激，上市以来第一份财报。
营收大概六七十亿这个量级，Starlink还是唯一能赚钱的主心骨，用户破千万。问题是xAI并表后资本开支烧得吓人，短期盈利能力全靠星链硬扛。
更要命的是8月6日解禁窗口一开，差不多9亿股可以砸出来，按近期股价算就是上千亿美元的潜在抛压。早期投资者和员工持股可没马斯克那种锁定到2027年的耐心。
X上的KOL也表达了一些观点：“Cathie Wood提前买了2600万SpaceX，这就是卖出信号。”也有人冷嘲热讽：过去20年SpaceX躲着华尔街季度拷问，现在马斯克得当面解释GAAP利润率、现金燃烧率和卫星折旧，欢迎来到大联盟。
有些分析师盯着短仓已经占到可交易流通股的32%左右，财报要是给不出清晰的星链盈利路径和AI烧钱可控的说法，解禁盘接不住就等着看戏。
Circle压轴，稳定币圈的真金白银考验。
营收几乎全靠USDC流通量和短端利率吃饭。流通量最近有收缩迹象，利率端能不能补回来全看美联储脸色。
X上有人真的一针见血：“USDC需求在，但Circle的利润跟宏观收益率周期绑死了。”还有人盯着Arc区块链和支付网络的落地，以及和Coinbase的分成协议自动续约后，能不能降低对单一渠道的依赖。
降息预期一升温，压力立刻上来；要是立法推进顺利、机构合作再开几个大口子，还能撑一阵。币圈人最关心的就是这个，利率饭还能吃多久。
这三家横跨AI算力、太空互联和加密支付，本质上是在验证三件事：AI硬件需求到底有多硬、商业航天能不能从烧钱变成赚钱、稳定币在合规和利率双重夹击下还有没有弹性。
科技股情绪一动，BTC这种高Beta玩意儿就会跟着抖。AMD要是亮眼，硬件链条和存储逼空还能再续一波；要是翻车，短期情绪被打压，BTC也别想独善其身。
SpaceX解禁本身跟币圈没关系，但科技股整体抽风会传导过去。
说白了，财报季就这破逻辑：超预期的涨，符合预期的平，不及预期的跌。#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
🔥MSTR sold again, 1,638 tokens, but there is a detail behind the "scale halving" that many people don't understand
Brothers, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is selling coins again.
During the week from July 27 to August 2, the company sold 1,638 BTC, cashing out about $105 million, with an average selling price of $63,957.
Seeing this number, the first reaction might be: Oh no, even Seller is starting to cut losses?
But on closer inspection, there is a key difference between this coin sale and previous ones—the scale has been halved.
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From "wild throwing" to "probing," strategies are quietly shifting
Let's first review MSTR's coin selling rhythm this year.
In late June, Strategy officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," and since then, coin selling has become noticeably more frequent. But in previous rounds, the starting stock was just a few thousand coins; this time, only 1,638 were issued, which was cut in half.
And note one detail: the average selling price this time was $63,957, while the company's average holding cost was $75,419.
For every coin sold, the loss is nearly $11,000. This is not taking profits; it is a real loss-making reduction.
But Thaler argues that the funds will be used to boost cash reserves to $4 billion, extend the fund's duration by 57 days, and also use it for preferred stock dividends and share buybacks.
In plain language: the company is short of cash flow and has to draw blood from BTC reserves to fill dividends and buyback pits.
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The belief in "never selling" is giving way to financial reality
What has been the core narrative of MSTR over the past few years? "Buy only, not sell," "Bitcoin standard," "Long-term holding."
This narrative has propped up the company's stock price and fueled market confidence in institutional Bitcoin reserves. But now, "never sell" has become "selective selling," and selling is happening more and more frequently.
What's even more intriguing is that the company hasn't made any new purchases in five weeks.
Previously, MSTR's logic was "buy more as prices fall," using the money from bond and stock issuance to keep adding positions. Now, on the contrary, when prices drop, people stop buying and instead sell. What does this indicate? This indicates that the company's cash flow pressure has reached a point where it must move its core reserves.
Saylor even expanded the cash-out target to $5 billion.
What does $5 billion mean? At the current price, it would be about seventy to eighty thousand BTC to sell. If this 5 billion is truly executed, MSTR's portfolio structure will fundamentally change.
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Market impact: selling pressure is not high, but the signal is bad
Objectively speaking, 1,638 BTC are placed in MSTR's total holdings of 842,000 BTC, accounting for only 0.19%. This amount of selling pressure has little direct impact on the market, hardly even a ripple.
But the market's concern lies not in quantity, but in trends and signals.
MSTR is the world's largest Bitcoin reserve company, holding 4% of BTC's circulating supply. Every sale it makes sends a signal to the market: even the most determined bulls are starting to run out of funds.
A deeper question is: if MSTR is forced to continue reducing holdings due to cash flow pressure, will it trigger other institutions to follow suit? After all, the current macro environment is unfavorable, the Federal Reserve is still hawkish, and corporate financing costs are rising. MSTR is not the only company using Bitcoin as a reserve, but it is the largest. Once the leader moves, the entire narrative of "corporate Bitcoin reserves" loosens.
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My judgment: short-term pressure, but don't panic excessively
To get straight to the point: MSTR's recent sale has limited impact on BTC price, but its impact on market sentiment cannot be ignored.
With a volume of 1,638 coins, even intraday fluctuations can't affect it. But the combination of "five weeks of no purchase + third sale + cash-out target expanded to 5 billion" means MSTR has shifted from a "net buyer" to a "net seller." This transformation in character is more important than how many coins are sold.
But let's also look at the other side: MSTR currently holds 842,000 BTC, still the world's largest corporate holdings. If the 5 billion cash out target is implemented over several years, the average annual selling pressure would only be a few thousand coins, which is just a drop in the bucket compared to its total holdings.
There are two key points to truly be wary of:
1. If BTC continues to fall, MSTR's unrealized losses will widen, possibly forcing accelerated selling
2. If the company's stock price continues to be under pressure and buyback demand increases, the pressure to sell coins to replenish funds will be even greater
In the short term, the $63,000 mark is crucial. The average selling price for MSTR is around 64,000, indicating the company itself has a "cash outlet" demand at this price. If BTC falls below 60,000, MSTR's book pressure will rise sharply, and then 1,638 coins may no longer be a problem.
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A few final words
MSTR shifted from "buy only, not sell" to "buy while selling" and then to "sell only, not buy," a shift that itself is part of the market cycle. No company can hoard inventory at all costs forever; when cash flow and stock prices are under pressure, core assets become the last ammunition cache.
For crypto brothers, selling MSTR is not an immediate "clear position" signal, but definitely a reminder not to blindly go long. Institutional money isn't unlimited; when the most determined bulls start to calculate carefully, retail investors should not go all in.
The above are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. How long do you think this wave of MSTR selling will last? Let's chat in the comments section.Recently, there has been discussion on X about Coinbase's assessment of the "proxy economy," with CoinDesk's public post page showing about 5 hours and about 10,000 views. What is truly worth watching on this topic is not whether machines will surpass humans, but whether money can be used programmatically without giving up all permissions at once.
Coinbase has officially made "Coinbase for Agents" an MCP/CLI: agents can perform payment, research, or transaction-related tasks within user-defined boundaries; Their research materials also position protocols like x402 as payment tracks between machines and services. This shows it has moved from concept to tool level, but three things are still missing from a mature "agent economy": who can verify the identity of operations, can set caps on each expenditure, and can revoke and hold accountable if errors or misleading occur.
For regular users, the most important thing to keep is the permission list: first distinguish between read-only data, payment, currency exchange, and transfer permissions; Default low limit, individual transaction confirmation, using a separate test wallet; Don't mistake "can execute automatically" with "should execute automatically." AI popularity can determine topics but cannot replace account security, contract risk, and final confirmation.Here are a few key signals on the market today, and I'll highlight them directly.
BTC is oscillating around 62,420, but the direction hasn't been chosen yet. The above level between 64,000 and 65,500 is a concentrated zone for short liquidation; a breakout could trigger short squeezes. There is long liquidation pressure between 62,000 and 63,000 below. The strength of bulls and bears is approaching equilibrium, with the direction depending on US-Iran negotiations and macroeconomic data. Geopolitical easing is a marginal positive, but the market has already partially priced in BTC, and BTC has not followed the US stock market's sharp rise, indicating the crypto market is waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Amazon's market value surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, with its stock price rising about 5%. Palantir's performance far exceeded expectations, with a sharp rise in after-hours trading. Meta, Microsoft, and Google all strengthened. Tech stocks rose collectively, indicating that market confidence in AI investment returns is recovering. But for the crypto market, the US stock market didn't keep up with the BTC rally, and weak ETF capital flows limited upward flexibility. In the short term, new catalysts are needed to break the deadlock.
As a core supplier of enterprise-grade SSDs, SanDisk directly benefits from the need for data center expansion. Continue holding long positions at 1206.65, move stop-loss up to 1220, target 1300 to 1350.
Next, three things to watch are: whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually reopen, which will determine oil price trends and inflation expectations. Whether Bitcoin ETF capital flows can turn positive will determine the short-term direction. SanDisk's August 5 earnings report will determine sentiment in the storage sector. Think carefully. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to intervene, with Circle closing up #Palantir营收增93%, rising 13% #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币 in after-hours trading, with its scale halved by $BTC $ETH $SNDKTrump Media, a Trump subsidiary, has once again made a large-scale BTC transfer worth about $165 million. This is already the company's third major transfer in nearly seven months.
The market's first reaction was panic. After all, the market believed Trump was most likely selling stock.
Interestingly, a Trump Media spokesperson urgently clarified that this was a custodial transfer rather than a sale. But the majority of netizens are not to be underestimated. On-chain monitoring shows that the company has cumulatively sold 7,281 BTC in the past seven months, cashing out about $545 million. This means the so-called "custody transfer" closely overlaps with ongoing share reductions.
Even more concerning is its holding costs. Trump Media will buy 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118529 in July to August 2025, with a total investment of about $1.368 billion. Based on current market prices, the remaining 4,261 BTC still have an unrealized loss of about $237 million. The cumulative realized and unrealized losses amount to $555 million.
In short, regardless of how companies explain it, large-scale transfers are itself creating expectations of a sell-off.
Second, DJT's stock price has fallen more than 25% since establishing BTC reserves, putting the company under liquidation pressure, and the remaining 4,261 BTC could become new selling pressure at any time.
Additionally, ABTC, the Trump family's Bitcoin mining company, has posted losses for three consecutive quarters, with its stock price plunging about 95% from its peak, and the entire Trump-related crypto landscape is experiencing a comprehensive retreat.
Brothers, when the biggest political celebrities are selling at a loss, can BTC's institutional narrative still hold up? Haha. #从降息到加息, the Fed's full disagreements are public [Pharaoh Market Watch]
ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall backward—is this script written in reverse?
Pharaoh bluntly said that the stronger the economy, the higher US Treasuries are, indicating the market is playing a game of "good data = bad news" in reverse pricing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI surged from 53.3 to 55.6, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 54, with new orders and employment surging. When the data came out, the market's first reaction was not to buy US dollars, but to buy US Treasuries, and the 10-year yield actually fell by 5 basis points.
Why? Because Trump paused his large-scale strike on Iran, oil prices plunged 5.4%, directly boosting inflation expectations. As inflation eased, U.S. Treasuries rose. The current scenario is: geopolitical stalls → oil prices fall, → inflation cools → US Treasuries rise, and the economy becomes a supporting role.
On the Bitcoin side, the cooling of geopolitical risks has led to a short-term recovery in risk appetite, but ISM data has reinforced expectations that the Fed will "maintain high interest rates for a longer period," which is a long-term suppression on risk assets. In the short term, we look at a rebound; in the medium term, let's see how rate hike expectations unfold.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $BICO #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have turned negative On August 5th, Beijing time, stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) will release its new quarterly earnings report before the US stock market opened. However, on the eve of this quarter's earnings release, Wall Street has already shown clear divisions regarding Circle's future value. On August 3, Morgan Stanley (hereafter referred to as "Morgan Stanley") downgraded Circle's rating from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight" and sharply lowered its price target from $106 to $38. Meanwhile, TD Cowen covered Circle in its rating for the first time, giving a "Buy" rating and setting a target price of $82. The two institutions offered sharply different ratings, and the core disagreement reflected lies in how to define Circle today—whether it continues to be seen as a stablecoin issuer relying on USDC for scale growth, or as a tech company evolving into a digital financial infrastructure platform. Institutional Divergence: Morgan Stanley bears USDC growth, TD Cowen bets on platform-based transformation. Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette gave a "Underweight" rating. On TipRanks, Faucette received a four-star rating (out of five stars), and is widely regarded as a sell-side analyst far above average, despite Faucett having been above average over the past two yearsLet me give you a conclusion: xPLTR's rally this round is not without facts supporting sentiment; Palantir's earnings report does provide reasons for revaluation; But prices are moving faster than transaction confirmations. The most interesting thing now is not how high they can rise, but whether US stock cash stocks can withstand this upward revision of expectations. First, clarify the timing and data. Palantir announced the second quarter results at 04:05 Beijing time on August 4, slightly earlier than the 12-hour topic boundary of this round, so I treat them as background and do not pretend to be in-window news. The real new fact for the 05:02–17:02 window is: in OKX's one-minute data, xPLTR rose from 141.25 to 146.20, an increase of 3.50%, with a range low of 138.77 and a high of 146.20; if you combine the two equal windows, the 24-hour increase is about 15.88%. Meanwhile, the turnover in this window was about 36,700 USDT, only 15.8% higher than the previous first-tier window. In other words, the second segment of price increases after the earnings report is clear, but the volume does not explode in tandem. Why is the market willing to raise valuations first? The company disclosed quarterly revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter, about 7.4% higher than the upper bound of the company's previous guidance; Of this, U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, up 149% year-on-year. More importantly, the full-year revenue guidance was raised to $8.15 billion—$8.16 billion. My judgment is that this is not a single conceptual impulse, but rather "accelerated growth, guidance for further advancement."MU technical position
Resistance: 885–900 (previous support turned to resistance, strong resistance at 4H) → 960 (right reversal confirmation line, only spot viewed) → 1031 (daily super trend line, medium-term bull-bear dividing)
Long-short divide: 830–840 (underlying stock closing at 829.5 + on-chain consensus zone, you above 850 = closed premium long market, below 830 = return to underlying stock logic)
Support: 800–820 (heavy trading volume in 4H) → 770–786 (intraday low on 8/3 + platform support) → 740–750 (extreme pullback / major bearish target)
and SNDKUSDT (both are US stock synthetic contracts)
SNDK 1316: Anchor 1288, premium +2.2%. SanDisk's AI NAND logic is purer, with high elasticity and wild volatility
MU 850: Anchor at 829.5, premium +2.5%. Micron DRAM + HBM dual lines, but institutions are fighting between bulls and bears (Burry short vs. data center long). Long positions are crowded, funding rates are positive, open interest is declining→ The rebound carries the risk of a stampede. Both are constrained by 'tonight's US stock market gap convergence.' The 850 price is overly high during the close, so don't place orders at 850 anchor; set 829.5±2% to reserve slippage
Trading Closure Reminder
Currently, the Asia-Europe session is a closed window for US stocks, and MUUSDT liquidity is much thinner than BTC. Inserting a pin near 850 to 865 or 820 is normal
21:30 The underlying stock most often sweeps in the opposite direction 5–10 minutes before market opens. Heavy positions above the watershed at 830 = betting on premiums without taking losses
50x leverage near the anchor point of 829.5 means a gap will be wiped out immediatelyBreaking news: negotiations between Iran and Oman on the opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are close to finalizing, but the statements between the US and Iran are seriously divided, and the contest is far from over. According to the plan disclosed by the Iranian side: merchant ships would be allowed to travel separately, entering the Persian Gulf via the Iranian side and sailing out via the Omani side; Passing ships pay service fees, and the profits are split equally between the two countries. However, the U.S. side directly denied the claim of charges, emphasizing that the route setting does not require Iranian approval. Bigger hard conditions are on the surface: even if Iran and Afghanistan reach a shipping agreement, if the U.S. does not lift the blockade on Iranian ports or reinstate the 14-point memorandum of understanding, Iran can still continue closing the strait. In other words, ≠ negotiations are close to being reached, the strait will be fully opened immediately, but diplomacy is only a window of opportunity, and the root of the conflict has not been resolved. Mapping to the container shipping Europe route: the market has already moved past the unilateral surge, entering a consolidating pattern with weak fundamentals and geopolitical risk premiums providing a bottoming out. • If tensions in the Middle East resurface, shipping companies may reroute or suspend more routes, war insurance premiums will rise, and risk premiums will continue to push up near-month contracts; • If the situation substantially eases and risk premiums quickly fade, the market will return to freight fundamentals and give back previous gains. ✅ → the landing of general aviation, geopolitical premiums have faded, putting pressure on oil prices; ❌ Negotiations broke down→ lockdown risks resurfaced, driving oil prices higher. The news is volatile, maintaining high volatility. Key Points for Future Market Tracking 1. Actual traffic data for the Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz; 2. Plans for major shipping companies to suspend sailings or adjust routes; 3. Changes in shipping war insurance rates. Trading strategy: prioritize range-bound fluctuations, with geopolitical news fluctuating frequentlyGuys, there's a signal even more heartbreaking than F&G 28: Coinbase's premium has been negative for 77 consecutive days. To put it plainly—Americans have been net selling BTC for two and a half months straight, and one of the market's biggest buyers is quietly crouching in the corner.
BTC is now at 62,528, down 0.93% in 24h. It looks untouched, but it's actually because no one bought or dumped—it's all about the stock being cut off against each other.
Let's break down a few numbers: Breadth 6 rose 9 times down (only 40% of stocks were dividends), volume ratio cut 31.3%, and OI still stuck at 111,400 BTC. This isn't stabilization—it's 'American capital withdraws, and the market is playing for itself.'
For BTC, it's a blunt bottoming down; for ETH, it's a weaker dip; for altcoins, it's liquidity being drained—GRVT's +14.55% jump is one of the few still bright, while KAITO's -16.1% is the norm.
I joked about myself: The more I analyze this kind of setup, the less I dare to move. The last time I bought the 'bottom' trade, I'm still in the green (at a loss). Contrarian indicators are not suitable for bottom-fishing.
Here's something you can take: Coinbase premium + F&G + breadth—the three-piece set depends on the 'attitude of American investors.' Consecutive negative premiums + F&G cards 20-35 + breadth <50%, not a bottom, but a "confirmed absence of American capital." The real bottom will have to wait for the premium to turn positive.
Don't mistake sideways for a bottom; sideways movement is a sideways move, but a bottom is another. The market isn't short of smart people; what it lacks is the patience to wait.
Friends, what do you think about the 77-day negative Coinbase premium—did American investors really pull out, or did they just quietly buy in a new venue? Let's talk in the comments and see who can see who can see it right.
#BTC #ETH #Coinbase溢价 #市场情绪 #山寨季 #行情分析 #OKX星球 #缩量 #美股联动 #资金流向The fundamental reason for the start of US-Iran negotiations is that the Trump administration, persuaded by Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern allies, has abandoned large-scale military strikes against Iran and shifted to diplomatic maneuvering; The market is betting on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential implementation of a denuclearization agreement, with geopolitical premiums rapidly fading.
Short-term asset reactions were sharply divided: New York crude oil futures CL 📉 fell over 9% in WTI and Brent over 7% due to supply disruption panic; COMEX Gold XAU 📈: Oil prices fell to lower inflation expectations, rate-cut trading heated, spot gold opened nearly $40 higher; Nasdaq 100 futures 📈 saw risk appetite recover, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.78% and S&P 500 futures up 0.44%.
In the long term, if negotiations proceed smoothly, the crude oil market will continue to move downward 📉, with US stocks and gold leaning 📈 toward rate cut expectations; However, Iran emphasized that the situation in Hormuz "will not return to pre-conflict levels," and uncertainties in negotiations remain. If a breakdown occurs, oil prices will rebound 📈 and U.S. gold will come under pressure 📉. Overall, it is advisable to respond with a "short-term long risk assets, long-term focus on negotiation fulfillment."A whale staked 112,000 $ETH in three weeks—why is the price still grinding at $1,850?
According to on-chain data from Lookonchain and Arkham, the address 0x2e80 again withdraw 19,000 $ETH from Gemini, worth about $35.44 million, and then transfer it to the Ethereum Beacon Chain staking contract. Over the past three weeks, this address has cumulatively withdrawn 112,000 ETH from Gemini, worth about $208 million, which have been gradually staked.
Converted, the latest ETH has an average value of about $1,865, and the average value of a three-week cumulative position is about $1,857. The latest withdrawal of 19,000 coins accounts for nearly 17% of its three-week cumulative withdrawal.
This move is worth watching, but it shouldn't be simply interpreted as "whales just buying $35.44 million worth of ETH in the market."
Withdrawing and staking tokens from exchanges first means this batch of ETH has left the circulating environment where it can be sold at any time, reducing short-term available shares; Second, entering staking contracts means holders tend to hold long-term and earn on-chain yields, rather than planning to trade in swing trades within a few days. This is a positive signal for the $ETH supply structure.
But it does not equal new spot buying. The coins may have already been purchased in a Gemini account; what is happening now is just a change in custody location. Therefore, on-chain outflows can indicate willingness to hold positions, but cannot alone prove that the price is about to rise immediately.
Whales are very patient; the candlestick chart hasn't given much face for now.
Currently, $ETH is quoted at $1855.85, with a 24-hour low of $1836.71 and a high of $1876.65, representing a range of about 2.17%. On the one-hour chart, prices remain below the MA5 at $1859.94, the MA10 at $1861.73, and the MA20 at $1864.11. The three moving averages are concentrated between $1860 and $1865, forming a short-term resistance zone.
After rebounding from the low of $1821.91, ETH has repeatedly tested the $1880–$1890 range but failed to sustain it, indicating that the selling pressure above has not been truly digested. The latest hourly candlestick is trading between $1854.09 and $1858.94, with a volatility of only 0.26% and no significant increase in volume. The market currently seems to be moving in a waiting direction rather than forming a trend breakout.
Next, I will look at two sets of prices.
If it moves upward, first check whether $1865 can be reclaimed on increased volume; only after holding above can we be ready to retest $1877 and $1890; If pressure continues and it falls below $1836, the previous low near $1822 may still be tested. Once $1820 is breached, the short-term structure will weaken again.
So this whale staking is more like a medium- to long-term trust vote rather than an instant pump button. On-chain chips are tightening, but short-term prices are still being suppressed by moving averages—the two are not contradictory, just different timeframes.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard "Review of the Morning Session on August 4: Exchange Rate News Was Only the Trigger, Not the Main Cause"
Looking back at the early U.S. stock trading on August 4, news of yen intervention was more likely to trigger the rally.
The Nasdaq remains range-bound, but the underlying logic remains sector funds adjusting their positions.
AI software stocks, relying on real performance, have stronger ability to withstand message shocks.
Microsoft was fluctuating intraday, with no large-scale loosening of institutional holdings.
Nvidia is at a high level, which naturally puts considerable pressure on profit-taking.
Exchange rate news amplifies capital willingness to take profits, intensifying intraday volatility.
Funds are already flowing out of the storage sector, and external news further suppresses the market.
SK Hynix has weakened along with the sector in the short term, but its long-term HBM logic has not changed.
SanDisk's rebound is seriously lacking in sustainability, and the weak pattern remains unresolved.
Even without exchange rate events, the storage sector is still in a cycle of capital outflows.
External news will only accelerate short-term fluctuations and will not rewrite the medium- to long-term trajectory.
Many traders attributed the early morning decline entirely to the intervention of the yen by the US and Japanese banks.
It overlooks the valuation divergence within the tech sector itself.
In a structural market, stock selection is far more critical than judging the overall market ups and downs.
In terms of operations, continue to avoid weak storage targets and focus on the main theme and wait for opportunities. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours On August 4th, in early US trading, the market began pricing in the chain reactions of the stronger yen.
$BTC The Nasdaq did not break out of a one-sided rally and maintained a wide range of fluctuations after the opening. $ETH
AI-related weights showed strong resilience, withstanding the early trading sentiment shock. $SNDK
Microsoft has been fluctuating, with no obvious signs of long-term institutional funds withdrawing.
The bullish and bearish tug-of-war on Nvidia is intensifying, and the high-level shakeout cycle continues.
The storage sector's profitability is weak, and funds continue to avoid it.
Hynix pulled back due to market sentiment, but the value of its niche segment still exists.
SanDisk still hasn't rebounded properly, with bears firmly holding the market advantage.
The market is worried that a rebound in the yen could trigger large-scale carry trade liquidations.
Such closing actions indirectly lead to passive selling of U.S. risk assets.
However, judging from early trading sessions, large-scale sell-offs did not actually occur.
More often, it is early risk aversion on the trading side, representing an early emotional response.
Tech leaders with strong performance certainty are better able to withstand external news disturbances.
Niche hardware tracks amplify the downward fluctuations caused by external news.
During the early session, aggressive opening is not suitable; prioritize observing the strength of market support. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours 热闹榜单背后，钱其实走得很安静，也很挑剔。 你有没有发现，眼下真正在涨的，不是喊得最响的，而是结构上最"撑得住"的？ 我今晚翻了一圈盘面，第一感觉是表面热闹，底层却很克制。$BEAT 这种名字看着热，但资金并没有真正给到它持续性，更多是短线客在里头来回试探。真正被持续接住的，还是 $BTC、$ETH、$SOL 这几个老牌锚点，以及 $KAITO、$CORE、$ZEC 这类有独立逻辑的补涨标的。 如果把镜头拉近到衍生品结构，会发现一个有意思的细节：BTC 的永续合约资金费率并没有过热，说明杠杆资金还没有疯狂追多，这轮上涨更像是现货买盘在慢慢推。也就是说，市场不是靠情绪冲上去的，而是靠真金白银在换手。 - ETH 那边，期权市场的隐含波动率在悄悄抬升，说明机构在布局后续的波动，不只是看现货价格。 - SOL 的多头持仓集中在近月合约，远月深度不够，意味着市场对它的中期信心还在确认中。 - 至于 $DOGE、$WLD、$TAO 这些，更像是情绪面的温度计，资金在试探性配置，还没有形成一致方向。 我自己的理解是，当前阶段市场在交易"确定性"而不是"想象力"。那些有 ETF 预期、有机构参与、有Will the yen surge on Monday not be the "national team's" intervention? Data reveals the truth
The market spent all day guessing that "Japan would intervene," but the result might not have come at all.
---
Event reconstruction: Is the surge real, but is the intervention fake?
On Monday, the yen suddenly surged sharply, sparking a wave of market exclamations—"The Bank of Japan has intervened for the third consecutive day!" "Traders are flocking to the yen, afraid of missing out on policy dividends.
However, the Bank of Japan's data released on Tuesday poured cold water on it:
▌Key Data Breakdown:
· Wednesday's funding gap forecast: 3.38 trillion yen (about $21.43 billion)
· Brokers' previous forecast range: 2.32 trillion yen ~ 2.6 trillion yen
· Core difference: The forecast is slightly higher by about 0.78 trillion~1.06 trillion yen
If it really is foreign exchange intervention, the Bank of Japan's current account balance usually experiences large-scale capital outflows. However, data released on Tuesday did not show this feature.
So why is the yen rising?
This makes things even more interesting. Without a "national team" to support the base, the yen continues to surge violently, which indicates:
1. The market itself is going long on the yen—not because of intervention, but because of expectations;
2. The classic scenario of "buying rumors and selling facts" — the market intervened in advance, only to find it didn't come, leaving the subsequent moves intriguing;
3. Expectations of a narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread are self-reinforcing — even if the central bank hasn't acted, the market is already "acting on behalf of the central bank."
Key points for you:
1. 3.38 trillion yen vs 2.32 trillion~2.6 trillion yen — the funding gap forecast is nearly one trillion yen higher than normal, but this is precisely evidence of no intervention (if intervention had occurred, the gap would have manifested as central bank funds outflow, not just an increase out of thin air);
2. "Uninterventional surges" are more alarming than "intervention-induced surges"—indicating market sentiment has spontaneously shifted and yen bears are retreating;
3. The Bank of Japan's "expectations management" is becoming increasingly sophisticated—no need to actually spend money, just let the market run on its own;
4. Next, focus on the USD/JPY 153~155 range—if this level is broken and there is no sign of intervention, yen bulls may accelerate their inflow.
---
#日元汇率 #日本央行 #外汇干预 #美日利差
⚠️ This article is based on publicly available data from the Bank of Japan and does not constitute any exchange rate trading advice. The forex market is highly volatile, so leverage operations require extreme caution.
In short: the market scares itself; the yen rose, but the Bank of Japan's wallet didn't move—this is more worth considering than actual intervention.[Pharaoh Market Watch]
ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall backward—is this script written in reverse?
Pharaoh bluntly said that the stronger the economy, the higher US Treasuries are, indicating the market is playing a game of "good data = bad news" in reverse pricing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI surged from 53.3 to 55.6, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 54, with new orders and employment surging. When the data came out, the market's first reaction was not to buy US dollars, but to buy US Treasuries, and the 10-year yield actually fell by 5 basis points.
Why? Because Trump paused his large-scale strike on Iran, oil prices plunged 5.4%, directly boosting inflation expectations. As inflation eased, U.S. Treasuries rose. The current scenario is: geopolitical stalls → oil prices fall, → inflation cools → US Treasuries rise, and the economy becomes a supporting role.
On the Bitcoin side, the cooling of geopolitical risks has led to a short-term recovery in risk appetite, but ISM data has reinforced expectations that the Fed will "maintain high interest rates for a longer period," which is a long-term suppression on risk assets. In the short term, we look at a rebound; in the medium term, let's see how rate hike expectations unfold.
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $BICO #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have turned negative Zhuang Ge is targeting me again? Waking up from a nap, the empty orders are gone......
Family, I really admire it.
BTC short position, average opening price 63,680.5, forced closing price 64,029.2, loss -5.21U, return -105%.
I opened a short position at noon, took a nap, and when I woke up, it was gone.
📌 How did this order come to an end?
After shorting, BTC did move down a bit, hitting a low of 62,410, with a decent floating profit at the time.
I thought to myself, "It's solid, this round is going to work," and then peacefully went for a nap.
But when I woke up, I saw a big bullish candlestick straight from 62,410 to 64,249, up more than 1,800 points!
My short position was forced to close at 64029, and this needle hit me perfectly.
After the trade, the price fell back to around 63,500.
What does that mean? Is it just here to expose me?
🔍 What happened?
On the news front, the positive news of the U.S.-Iran returning to the negotiating table continues to ferment. Oil prices gave back gains, and risk assets rebounded across the board. As a representative risk asset, BTC naturally rose as well.
But that's not the point. The key point is: this needle came too suddenly.
From 62,410 to 64,249, a gain of 1,800 points, it was almost a straight line of gains. This level of rally is clearly caused by large players buying up or short sellers selling concentrated liquidation, triggering a stampede.
After the price increase, it fell back again. This shows that this is not a trending rally, but a short-term strategic move—the kind that targets short-selling opportunities.
💡 Where did he go wrong?
First, 100x leverage, with almost zero margin for error.
The opening price was 63,680, and the forced trade-off price was 64,029, a difference of only 349 pips, or 0.5%.
BTC can break through 0.5% with any normal fluctuation. With 100x leverage, any inverse volatility exceeding 0.5% will cause you to be liquidated.
Second, the afternoon nap does not have a moving take-profit setting.
I did set a stop loss when opening the position, but when the price dropped to 62,410, I didn't move the stop down down.
If you had moved your stop loss to 62,800 or 63,000 at that time, even if it rebounded, you could at least keep part of your profit. But I did nothing and went to sleep.
Third, the risk of news reversals always exists.
The US and Iran return to the negotiating table, and changes in rate hike expectations...... These developments could shift market direction at any time. With 100x leverage, any reversal in news can be fatal.
🎯 What happens next?
1. 100x leverage—I'm not touching it for now.
This is already the second time I've been targeted at liquidation due to high leverage. Two BTC short positions were both knocked out by a single needle, and then the price returned to the starting point.
Low leverage may make you earn slowly, but at least you can survive.
2. Set the take-profit move before sleeping.
Next time you hold a position overnight or take a nap, be sure to set your take-profit on a move. I can't let the market "sneak attack" me when I'm not watching the market.
3. Hold back before the news is clear.
US-Iran negotiations, Federal Reserve policy, earnings season...... Before these major events occur, the market's direction could reverse at any time. Wait until the trend is clear before making a move.
Final thoughts
Family, I'm really speechless by this needle.
Opened short, dropped to 62,410, with decent floating profits. Take a nap, pull it to 64,249, and immediately liquidate your position. After the explosion, it returned to 63,500.
The whole process had nothing to do with me—the money was gone, and the order was gone too.
Two BTC short positions:
· First order: 63208 opened short, 63720 was exposed
· Second order: 63,680 opened a short position, 64,029 was exposed
All of these were precisely knocked down, and then the price dropped.
Zhuang, are you really targeting me? 🤡
(This is purely a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
$BTC
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed
#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading. US July manufacturing data significantly exceeded expectations, yet US Treasury yields moved downward. This time, the market's pricing order is very clear.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.3 in June to 55.6, above the market expectation of 53.9, marking the 7th consecutive month in expansion territory and the highest level since May 2022.
Internal data also showed strength:
New orders index at 56.7, expanding for the 7th consecutive month;
Production index jumped from 52.2 to 58.5, a single-month increase of 6.3 points, the highest since November 2021;
Employment index rose from 49.7 to 52.8, ending 32 consecutive months of contraction;
Backlog of orders index increased from 50.5 to 55.0;
Export orders rose from 48.5 to 53.0, returning to expansion territory.
If only considering economic growth and employment, this report should support higher interest rates. Although the prices index fell from 73.0 to 71.1, it remains well above 50, indicating that manufacturing input costs have not truly cooled down.
However, the 10-year US Treasury yield actually dropped 5.9 basis points that day, closing at 4.684%. The reason comes from another set of more direct inflation data: after easing expectations of US-Iran negotiations, Brent crude oil fell about 5% to $83.47, and WTI dropped to $79.47.
In July, oil prices had risen over 20% due to Middle East tensions. Once energy prices quickly retreat, the market will revise downward inflation compensation for the coming months. Thus, the inflation cooling expectation brought by oil prices temporarily outweighed the rate hike pressure from the strong PMI.
Risk assets responded typically: the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, Nasdaq increased 2.1%, Dow Jones rose 1.3% and hit a new closing high. As of 17:48 Beijing time, BTC was around $63,490, with an intraday range of 62,387 to 64,117 USD.
Whether this rebound can continue depends not on individual PMI data but on which of two forces can persist: continued manufacturing recovery strengthening rate hike expectations, or further oil price declines suppressing inflation expectations.
Currently, the market has chosen the latter. But with the prices index still at 71.1, this pricing story is far from over.
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 The opening line: The most dangerous thing on the chessboard is never the king being the general being executed, but the fortress you thought you held firmly but suddenly turning into a kill game where your opponent discarded a piece.
Yonhap News Agency's data sheet looks just like the referee suddenly changing the rules for the 'Bingsheng' change during the endgame stage—the margin requirement for single-share leveraged ETFs was raised from 10 million won to 30 million won, and sixteen leveraged and inverse products tracking Samsung and SK Hynix saw their trading volume plummet from 12.4 trillion won on July 30 to 124 billion won on August 3, down to just one-tenth. This isn't just a simple reduction; it's like a mid-game aggressive attack, where you find all your attacking pieces pinned down by your opponent's 'iron chain restraining.' KOSPI plunged 18% in three days, then surged 17.91% on July 31, marking the largest gain in history, and then retreated only 5 points on August 3. Those who understand chess can see clearly: this is a typical "transitional forsaken pawn" deliberately made after a "dodging general," tricking you into getting on board and waiting for you to catch up.
A true grandmaster always counts the situation after twenty moves. The so-called "memory supercycle may last until 2029 to 2030" sounds like a grand rear wing abandoned position, but the premise is that you must survive the brutal strangulation of the midgame. After leverage is removed, is the remaining buying interest real muscle or just a bluffed paper force? This week is a decisive round. I have seen too many players sacrifice an entire chariot line for a beautiful general, only for the opponent to wait in the corner; after twenty moves, the king has nowhere to escape.
In this game of Korean chess, leverage is the elephant forcibly restricted—when its range shrinks from the entire board to two squares, all your tactical plans must be redone. The $XLLY crossover on the US side is like a mirror of the same chess game; every step reflected back on that side changes the situation here. But a player must remember: what you see in the mirror may be yourself, or it may be a bayonet hidden in the endgame.
This week, the chessboard will speak for itself. And I had already calculated that step. #koreaetfvoldown90SPCX (SpaceX) earnings report + market impact of the unlock
Three types of financial reporting scenarios
1. Financial reports far exceed expectations (revenue, Starlink users, losses narrowing)
• In the short term, a recovery and rebound may be triggered, but it is difficult to sustain a strong bull market. Soon, the unlocking selling pressure will follow, and the rebound will mostly be a rally and pullback, with heavy selling pressure above.
• For the crypto Musk-concept small coins: short-term sentiment surges with news stimulation, lacking long-term support.
2. Financial reports meet market expectations
• Without strong positive catalysts, funds trading early to unlock the negative signal, overall weak and volatile, with indirect insertion, intense bullish and bearish tug-of-war, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided rally.
3. Financial reports fell short of expectations, further widening losses
• Valuation logic is undermined, bears intensify, and expectations of unlocking are expected to accelerate, making it easy to accelerate the decline and further drive down valuation corrections.
The impact of unlocking (even more critical than financial reports)
On August 6, Juliang shares were unlocked, and early investors had extremely low holding costs and strong willingness to sell.
• Even if the earnings report looks good, unlocking will still suppress the upside potential;
• If the earnings report is disappointing, unlocking will become a catalyst for declines;
• The circulating market has been significantly expanded, and the previous logic of "chip scarcity speculation" has disappeared.
Insights for practical market trading
1. Spot trading: Not suitable for heavy bottom-fishing; financial reports + unlocking carry dual risks. Better to wait for events to occur and sell pressure to digest before looking at right-side opportunities;
2. Contracts: Volatility will skyrocket, and insertion will be very frequent. Be sure to reduce your position and increase your stop-loss. Don't bet on a single direction; $SPCX #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, Circle is the grand finale, #SPCX首份财报将公布 the opening of the $100 billion market limit is imminent Looking back now, dYdX Labs' launch of arcus_xyz on RobinhoodApp Chain was both a success and a failure.
The key points of success are:
Arcus has become the absolute leader among perp DEXs on RH Chain, accounting for over 80% of perp trading volume;
The failure lies in:
It has not brought any substantial empowerment to $DYDX, and may even have had adverse effects;
Arcus's 7-day perp trading volume ($162.25M) has already surpassed dYdX Chain ($151.47M), resulting in substantial diversion. As a brand almost completely independent of dYdX, Arcus has no real, implemented empowerment for $DYDX.
Of course, dYdX Labs also made empty promises to $DYDX holders: if Arcus issues tokens in the future, it will give a portion of the dYdX community airdrop share. Since Arcus went live on the RH Chain mainnet, $DYDX tokens have dropped by 15%.
Protocols prosper, holders suffer; The agreement is gone, and the holder suffers.Fundamental Research Report $GRASS / Grass (DePIN) $0.30 (24h -3.90%)
Core Judgment: Grass ($GRASS) has an overall score of 25/100, with a rating that mainly relies on narrative. Looking at the three layers, the company team is tightly resourced, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Fundamental Analysis: Grass (token $GRASS), DePIN track. Focusing on bandwidth DePIN and data acquisition nodes. Benchmarked against HNT and RNDR. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by the hour of the GPU. The A100's monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, so suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The main evidence comes from announcements, but there is currently no verifiable use. Latest version not found, 0 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $11.47M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is undisclosed, and token holders' buyback and burn annualized rate have no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 90 valid submissions in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,000,000,000.0, circulating 654,552,795.0 (65.5%), FDV is $299.58M, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), burn buyback annualized rate: no clear buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Comparing with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparison): Regarding circulating market capitalization, Grass $196.09M, HNT undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed. For FDV, Grass $299.58M, HNT not disclosed, RNDR undisclosed. Regarding annualized revenue, Grass has not disclosed, HNT has not disclosed, and RNDR has not disclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Grass has not disclosed it, HNT has not disclosed it, and RNDR has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, circulating market cap $196.09M, FDV $299.58M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic outlook at $196.09M at 50-70% off, oscillating in a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns are implemented, enterprise clients are coming in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligns with the leading companies. Final judgment: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Score 25/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. The circulating market capitalization is reasonable or relatively low compared to fundamentals, and FDV is moderate. Risks to watch for: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
This concludes the research report. Welcome to share your views.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit$BTC
The Nasdaq is increasingly linked to BTC—will the US stock market crash drag down the crypto world?
In recent years, an increasingly noticeable phenomenon has been unfolding: Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a tech stock. Previously, many people thought BTC was "digital gold" and should maintain some independence from traditional markets, but with institutional funds, spot ETFs, and Wall Street capital entering the market, the correlation between the crypto market and the Nasdaq index has significantly increased.
This also raises a question:
If the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, plunges, Bitcoin will be dragged down as well.
The answer is: it may be short-term, but not in the medium to long term.
Why is it affected in the short term?
Because the BTC market participants have now changed. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly driven by retail investors, but now more and more institutions are allocating BTC through ETFs, funds, and other means. When the Nasdaq drops sharply, it usually signals a decline in market risk appetite, with institutions reducing their positions in highly volatile assets, including tech stocks and crypto assets.
In short:
Tech stocks rise → risk sentiment increases → funds seek high-yield assets, → BTC to benefit.
Tech stocks fell → risk appetite declined→ funds were safe-haven, →and BTC was under pressure.
That's why BTC often falls in sync with US stock markets during intense volatility.
However, it should be noted that BTC is not simply copying the Nasdaq's trend.
In the long term, Bitcoin has its own cycle logic, including halving cycles, ETF inflows, on-chain supply and demand changes, and the global currency environment. When market liquidity improves and the US dollar weakens, even if tech stocks perform moderately, BTC may still emerge independently.
Two possible scenarios may arise in the future market:
First, if the US stock decline is due to recession concerns.
For example, if corporate profits decline, employment worsens, or funds are fully hedging, BTC may adjust in the short term following risk assets.
The second scenario is if the US stock market adjustment is merely a valuation correction.
For example, after a large rally in the AI sector, a normal pullback occurs, but the economy remains resilient. As the Federal Reserve begins to signal easing, funds may flow from some tech stocks to other assets, and BTC could become a new choice for capital.
For traders, now is the time to judge BTC's movement, and you can't just focus on Nasdaq.
More importantly, observe three indicators:
U.S. Treasury yields
Yield declines usually favor risk assets.
Dollar Index
A weaker dollar often provides a better upward environment for BTC.
ETF fund flows
Whether institutional funds continue to buy is a key factor that distinguishes BTC from ordinary risk assets.
Therefore, the strengthening of Nasdaq's correlation with BTC does not mean Bitcoin has lost its independent value, but rather indicates that it is entering the global financial system.
In the future, BTC may have both tech stock attributes and monetary asset attributes.
In the short term, the plunge in US stocks may drag down sentiment in the crypto world; In the long run, what truly determines BTC's direction remains global liquidity, institutional capital, and the market's repricing of digital asset value.
For traders, the biggest change is: previously, when looking at BTC, you only needed to look at on-chain and technical aspects; Now we still have to look at Wall Street.Korean Hynix is not following the US stock market; once the US stock premium in the night session opens, it immediately drops, showing very weak momentum.
This may be related to the capital structure. Wall Street funds have already sold off and started to shift investments into AI giants like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google. The speculation on the upstream hardware supply chain is probably almost completely over.