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$ETH 质押收益减少对于本身其币价来说肯定是利好，但是面对大量质押资金出逃肯定是短期的卖出压力。质押代币$LDO $ETHFI 先跌为敬了。而依靠eth质押利率的aave和ena还没跌。我相信之后会补跌，只是时间问题而已。毕竟借贷收益和套利质押交易本质上还是需要eth质押收益来产生收益的。为什么以太还没跌是因为大资金要抽离需要解除质押。资金费率已经无利可图了，eth最大的黑天鹅估计马上要来了。bmnr又成了陪葬品，骗人骗久了把自己也骗进去了tomlee.保持之前的看法，1350的以太甜品区。之前1600接的以太可以考虑止盈一部分，之后再接回来。一直没有开低倍多单的机会，保持耐心吧。不是每一个波动你都必须要吃到的。🟢 AI Morning Market Update: Infrastructure & Semiconductors Lead the Pre-Market Rally
AI infrastructure is back in focus before the opening bell.
Pre-market snapshot: • $QQQ : +0.9% to 706 • $SOXX: +3.9% to 528
While $PLTR continues to build on yesterday's earnings-driven momentum, up 14.5% pre-market at 144, the broader rotation is clearly shifting back toward AI infrastructure and semiconductors:
• $MRVL : +8.9% • $VRT: +5.3% • $SNDK: +5.3% • $AMD: +5.2% • $MU: +4.9% • $ARM: +4.8%
The move is being supported by several key developments:
• Reuters: The Trump administration is reportedly considering restrictions on new Chinese optical transceiver imports for U.S. data centers. • The Wall Street Journal: Banks are discussing a $15B data-center financing package for Anthropic backed by Google. • Financial Times: Google is said to be assembling an approximately $200B financing program for Anthropic, with more than $150B earmarked for TPUs and related AI infrastructure.
The market isn't simply extending yesterday's software rally—it's rotating back into the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem. If the reported trade restrictions move forward, non-Chinese optics and networking suppliers could benefit from stronger pricing power and market share. Meanwhile, continued investment in AI infrastructure reinforces demand for networking, memory, power, and cooling technologies.
The key level to watch after the open: if $SOXX gives back its gains while software regains leadership, today's move may prove to be little more than a pre-market squeeze. If semiconductor strength holds, it would reinforce the view that AI infrastructure remains the market's leadership theme.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and company filings.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 看到$SPCX 财报前拉个5%就喊"起飞"的老弟们，真的让人哭笑不得。你们是不是只看得懂K线颜色，看不懂锁仓日历？
SPCX当前95%的筹码还捏在内部人和员工手里，流通盘只有可怜的4-5%。 现在拉盘纯粹是低流通盘+情绪炒作，跟基本面没有半毛钱关系。Q2财报窗口就在这几天，第一批20%的锁仓股份（约9.2亿股）即将解锁，如果股价维持在175.50以上还有额外10%的奖励解锁。 当前价格121，连IPO价135都没回去，解锁条件虽然触发不了那额外的10%，但20%的抛压是实打实的。
更搞笑的是，这还只是开胃菜。接下来8月到10月每隔两周就有7%的筹码释放，Q3财报后还有约13亿股（28%）的巨量解锁，12月8日180天锁仓彻底到期。 到明年6月，马斯克那64亿股、占公司近一半的股份也将进入市场。 供给端的压力是持续且巨大的，而需求端除了"信仰"还剩什么？
30日跌幅-24.69%，90日跌幅近-25%，趋势已经明明白白。财报前的这点拉盘，不过是给空头送更好的入场点位罢了。我空单继续持有，目标看到两位数。等这批解锁砸下来，现在追高的老弟们就知道什么叫"飞"——不过是向下自由落体的那种。30-Year Treasury Yield at 5.27%: Peak or Just the Beginning?
It may sound extreme, but the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level in nearly two decades, while the Federal Reserve remains largely on the sidelines.
Not long ago, investors closely tracked every Fed signal for clues about the direction of markets. Today, the long end of the Treasury market appears to be finding its own equilibrium. Yields continue to rise, bond prices continue to fall, and long-duration bondholders have endured significant losses while facing the constant prospect of additional government debt issuance.
Many investors see these levels and immediately call for a generational buying opportunity. I'm not convinced.
The era of ultra-low yields was supported by three powerful forces: globalization, subdued inflation, and strong demand for U.S. debt. Today, all three are far less certain. With U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits, and a growing supply of Treasuries, the market is being asked to absorb more debt without the same level of support from foreign buyers or the Federal Reserve.
From a crypto investor's perspective, the implications are straightforward. When the so-called risk-free rate offers more than 5%, capital naturally becomes more selective. Investors have less incentive to chase highly volatile assets when attractive yields are available elsewhere.
That dynamic helps explain why risk assets, including Bitcoin, often struggle to sustain major breakouts in a rising-yield environment. As long as long-term Treasury yields remain elevated or continue moving higher, the path for speculative assets is likely to be more challenging, with consolidation rather than a broad-based surge.
My view: it's still premature to declare a peak in long-term yields. Many investors see 5.3% and assume the move is over. I see a market still adjusting to a very different economic reality than the one that defined the last decade.
Just my perspective, not financial advice.
$BTC #DailyOrbit #BigTechEarningsWatch #FedSplitGoesPublic 兄弟们，SpaceX 这几天可能要迎来真正的大行情。
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
现在市场最大的看点不是马斯克发了什么，而是空头已经压得太狠了。数据显示，目前做空规模已经达到 246亿美元，约 2.19亿股空单，占流通股接近 34%。
这么高的空头比例，一旦方向走错，很容易形成连锁回补。
未来两天有两个关键事件。
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
📌 8月4日盘后公布财报，决定市场怎么看公司的成长性。
📌 8月6日股份解禁，早期投资者和内部股东可以开始交易，市场将迎来一次筹码考验。
不少人觉得解禁一定会砸盘，但市场往往喜欢反着走。如果财报足够亮眼，新增抛压又被资金顺利接住，那些高位做空的人反而可能被迫买回股票，推动价格继续上涨。
交易市场最经典的一幕，就是人人看空的时候，股价却越走越高。
这一轮到底是解禁兑现利空，还是空头集体认输，就看接下来几天市场怎么选择了。 🚨 The market appears to be strengthening...... But don't mistake "optimism" for "trend confirmation."
Confidence is gradually returning, news headlines are turning positive, and trader sentiment is starting to heat up again. But real major market moves often happen after the market proves itself with a substantial breakthrough—not before.
📊 Market observations during trading
Overnight, global markets as a whole continue the risk appetite tone:
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks closed higher, driven by the continued strength of major tech stocks;
🌏 The Asia-Pacific market followed suit, with Korean stocks leading the gains.
However, several core risks remain unresolved:
🇯🇵 Yen exchange rate fluctuations continue to ferment;
⚡ The energy market is unstable;
📑 Later this week, key U.S. employment data will be released, which could reverse the current optimism at any moment.
Market sentiment is indeed improving—but there is still a tough battle ahead.
🟠 BTC (Bitcoin)
BTC is currently testing the $64,000 resistance zone in real time.
📈 If it can break through cleanly and firmly hold this position, it could ignite a new round of upward momentum and improve overall risk appetite in the altcoin market.
📉 Conversely, if rejected, it is highly likely to enter another accumulation phase, with $63,000 and $62,200 becoming key support levels to watch.
🔵 ETH (Ethereum)
ETH was noticeably weaker than BTC in this rebound, remaining stagnant.
If the price can consistently hold above $1,650, it would be a positive signal boosting the broader altcoin market; Until then, capital is expected to remain highly selective, with funds leaning toward areas with greater certainty.
🟡 Key Altcoin levels worth watching
• SOL needs to recover $80
• BNB needs to break above $600
• DOGE needs to break above $0.071
👀 Next, focus on where the funds are flowing:
🐸 Meme sector: PEPE, WIF, BONK
🏦 DeFi sector: LINK, AAVE, UNI
🤖 AI track: WLD, TAO, KAITO
⚠️ Reminder: Emotional warmth doesn't mean you can hit hard and leverage it.
The first bullish candle is not a confirmation signal—it is often just bait. True trading wisdom is to wait for a key resistance level to be effectively broken and held before acting decisively.
Patience remains the most undervalued position in the market.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit如果美股科技股连续放量上攻，那么风险资产这杯温水，可能比很多人以为的更烫。 你闻到那股熟悉的甜味了吗？ QQQ 单日 +1.76%，NVDA、TSLA、MSFT 里有三只涨超 2%，这画面不是普通的反弹，是资金在给"强者恒强"这个故事重新定价。市场现在的动作很诚实：钱没有犹豫，直接往最拥挤的赛道里挤。 我盯盘时最在意的不是涨幅本身，而是这个节奏背后的心理变化。 过去几周大家还在反复试探，怕衰退、怕估值、怕美联储变脸。但今天这根阳线像是把那些犹豫都轻轻盖了过去。当领头羊集体创新高，资金会本能地认为"不参与才是风险"，这种情绪一旦蔓延，就容易出现高位钝化、龙头溢价继续拉开的局面。 不过，我不是来喊单的。我反而更警惕两个信号： - QQQ 能不能站稳近 5 日高点，而不是冲高后迅速回吐 - NVDA、TSLA、MSFT 的成交额是否真的同步放大，还是只是缩量拉抬 如果价格创新高但量能跟不上，那就是典型的"虚胖"。短期内强势股最容易在放量滞涨后出现高位分歧，那时候追进去的人，接的可能是最后一棒。 我的理解是：市场现在交易的不是业绩，而是"趋势惯性"。大家都想搭上最稳的那趟车，于是车越开越快，但Rebound and then hype? Don't worry, money is still drilling into AI, but the foundation of risk assets hasn't been firmly established. Scroll down to see the numbers.
$BTC 63,933 +1.86% $ETH 1,871 +1.43%
$QQQ +1.76% $SPY +1.42% $IBIT +1.46%
$DXY -0.11% $GLD +0.05%
Crude oil and Hormuz continue to disrupt inflation expectations, US Treasury yields and Fed expectations continue to weigh on valuations, and the exchange rate line is unstable. $DXY is not a backdrop and could move the market at any time. But money doesn't care about all that, pushing into AI semiconductors, with $MU up +11% and $SNDK +16.4% surging sharply. $QQQ carrying the Nasdaq forward, institutions haven't loosened their grip on hard tech at all.
Looking closely, it's all a bit fishy. $ETH Left behind by $BTC, fake funds only recognize big pies, and the weakness of Ethereum shows the wind hasn't truly warmed up. $IBIT Gains have lagged behind spot $BTC, ETF buying has been weak, and this rebound in spot markets hasn't penetrated deep enough. $DXY Breathed a sigh of -0.11%, giving risk assets a breathing space; But $GLD +0.05% is still rising, and the safe-haven funds haven't been fully withdrawn, so the market remains anxious.
Whether the US stock market can hold out tonight will be the real touchstone. Whoever shows weakness first will set the pace for the next few days. Don't rush to hold heavy positions; look carefully before making a move.
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed先试着写一段简单的交易。
在ETH大幅拉升的时候，比如图1这段ETH5月1号到5月10号，从2900拉升到4100。但比特币纹丝不动，大家都在期待着BTC在蓄力补涨的时候，就要小心了。
还有几个因素，比特币已经从4月14号CB上市的64000高点回落过一波，后续的反弹乏力，资金更多的切换到ETH上，当时还有动物园们，疯狂起飞，全魔乱舞阶段。这时候是BTC的最佳开空时机。
也和前几天我在66000平掉BTC的多单是一个道理，市场上ETH强于BTC的时候，是个危险信号。
再说回平仓时机，当时我是在4万开的对冲，没想到当天就出现了5.19时刻，又暴跌了30%，又在35500-3W2陆续加了多单，当比特币OK季度价格跌到28800的时候，爆仓价已经掉到了25000。AI, space, stablecoins—all three cards are flipped up at once.
The most lively market this week wasn't ISM hitting a four-year high, nor the abnormal drop in US Treasury yields. The real highlight is the financial reports of AMD, SpaceX, and Circle that are almost immediately released.
These three seemingly unrelated fields are actually intertwined.
On the AI side, AMD is the direct beneficiary and stress tester.
Demand for data centers and AI accelerator cards is still surging, and the market has raised expectations very high. AMD's earnings report this time is not just about revenue and profit, but also about whether it can truly capture Nvidia's market share and whether its next-generation products can scale up on time. The biggest risk in AI narratives now isn't the loss of demand, but supply falling behind, intensified competition, and squeezed gross margins. If the numbers fall short of expectations, the entire AI hardware chain will shake.
On the space side, SpaceX submitted its report card for the first time as a publicly listed company.
Starlink is already a genuine cash cow, but the real cash burners are AI and Starship. The market is currently most concerned not about the number of launches, but whether Starlink can sustainably feed its AI computing power and Starship R&D. SpaceX ties space and AI together to tell stories: computing power in orbit, low-latency networks, and the future constellation economy. It sounds sexy, but for the first time releasing an earnings report, the numbers have to match the story. If losses are too high and guidance too soft, valuations will immediately be repriced.
On the stablecoin side, Circle is the underlying pipeline of the crypto world.
USDC circulating supply, on-chain trading volume, and reserve yields—these are the true metrics for measuring crypto market activity. Stablecoins are not just "digital dollars"; they have become the settlement layer for exchanges, DeFi, and cross-border payments. Circle's numbers are strong, indicating real on-chain demand is still there; A negative number indicates that funds are either leaving or shifting toward other stablecoins. What the crypto market lacks most right now isn't narrative, but real liquidity that can be continuously accumulated. Circle's financial report answers this question.
These three companies are actually talking about the same thing:
AI requires massive computing power and electricity; space provides new computing power deployment space and networks; stablecoins offer on-chain settlement and capital efficiency.
One is hardware and algorithms, one is physical infrastructure, and the other is financial pipelines. With all three submitting their papers simultaneously, the market will see for the first time clearly: is this "AI + space + encryption" cross-narrative really running or just telling a story?
If the numbers hold up, risk appetite can continue to surge.
If you can't hold back, the optimism brought by the easing of oil prices will quickly fade.
AI, space, and stablecoins are no longer just three separate tracks. This week's earnings report is the first public stress test for this new triangle. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Should the price fluctuate back and forth, or should I keep holding on, or should I mostly focus on swing trading due to my inner tolerance?
Since the recent geopolitical upgrade in early July, the logic and trend of oil price fluctuations have all been correct. #WTI
I also agree with the article's viewpoint. Let's first see how this break below 75 will happen. If it follows the trend and breaks below 72 or even lower, it will be time to take profits. If you're still pulling at 75, keep picking up.
But personally, although $CL $BZ are currently profitable on paper, I still feel it was a bit of a failure
Previously, my CL's last opening price was 80.2, and BZ's opening price was 88.3
Actually, the first time it broke 78, the account was already quite profitable, but I still wanted to wait for a lower price, so I didn't leave, worried that after holding for so long, I wouldn't get a big profit. I wondered if I would just go down directly. But they still underestimated the level of back-and-forth between the US and Iran
Immediately after, news waves kept circulating, and the price rebounded above 88. At that time, profits pulled back, and I started to regret it a little
Then the second time it broke 79 was on number 3. There was another swing opportunity, but still didn't sell. Today it broke above 80, and I lost again.
Today, news has completely eased, with expectations for strait navigation and prices breaking below 76.
This is the first time since July that the book has maximized profits (back then, around 93, it was considered the biggest loss, but fortunately, it was certain it would continue). Although I did get to eat it, I still felt a bit of a pity
This actually makes us reflect on a question: price trends aren't like climbing stairs—they're falling, falling, rebounding, then falling again, rising again, falling again, then falling again...
This keeps repeating. Think about other big specs, US stocks, and the US market—they've all shown similar trends
However, this kind of swing is indeed very exhausting, and you have to worry about missing out, so you need to check the market from time to time. Still holding it all the time for peace of mind, right?
I also want to eat more and trade more swing trading, but sometimes people's trading mindset is very complicated
Right now, we're just hindsight talk, but if you think about it, it's not really hindsight. It's a lot of trading experience you've accumulated, so you'll know:
"Dog farms won't just keep rising without looking back, nor will they keep falling without a rebound."
This truly requires trading skills that combine cognition, strong mentality, operation, and patience
It's unbearable, really unbearable
DYORThe July ISM Manufacturing Index was 55.6, far exceeding expectations and directly hitting a new high since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment are all ignited. According to the old logic, the bond market should have been smashed long ago, causing yields to surge.
And what happened? The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reversed course to drop five or six basis points that day, closing at 4.68%.
Stop pretending, the real boss is the oil prices.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly softened his stance, pausing action against Iran, with Brent spending over 4% in a single day. Inflation expectations were instantly relaxed, and the bond market's sensitivity to "falling oil prices" far exceeded that of "manufacturing is accelerating." No matter how strong the data is, it can't beat the sudden price cuts.
Manufacturing is indeed recovering, but don't celebrate too soon. What truly drives growth are AI infrastructure, defense orders, and advance stocking; traditional sectors are still half-dead. The price index fell from 73 to 71.1. Although it looked like it had dropped, it was still alarmingly high. The supply chain remains choked, and cost pressures simply haven't eased.
Actual impact:
Both stocks and bonds are celebrating. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow hitting a new closing high, and the Nasdaq rising over 2%. As soon as oil prices fall, risk appetite immediately returns.
Expectations for rate hikes have barely moved. No matter how strong manufacturing is, it has been offset by oil prices, and the September rate hike pricing has basically remained flat.
The decline in long-term interest rates temporarily benefits growth stocks and real estate, easing expectations for financing costs.
But don't be fooled by this excitement.
Economic resilience is real, but transactions are completely held hostage by oil prices. If oil prices rebound, or if employment and inflation harden further, the bond market could flip at any time, and the scenario of stocks and bonds rising simultaneously would immediately fall apart.
Right now, the market isn't really focused on ISM, but on whether oil prices will plunge again tonight. When oil prices ease, debt also loosens; Oil prices are rising again, and debt is being smashed at any moment. This wave looks like a return to risk appetite, but in reality, it's as fragile as thin ice. #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed
The July ISM Manufacturing Index was 55.6, 1.6 points higher than expected and the highest since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment all strengthened, so logically, the bond market should have crashed, with yields surging.
As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell five or six basis points that day, closing around 4.68%.
The reason is simple: oil prices crashed first.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly paused his actions against Iran, causing Brent to fall more than 4% in a single day. With inflation expectations easing, the bond market reacted much faster to "oil prices coming down" than to "manufacturing acceleration."
Manufacturing is indeed recovering, but mainly supported by AI infrastructure, defense orders, and advance stocking, with traditional sectors still weak. Although the price index fell from 73 to 71.1, it remains very high. Supply chain lead times continue to lengthen, but cost pressures have not disappeared.
The data looks good, but the value is inflated.
The market is not really focused on ISM now, but on whether oil prices can hold steady. When oil prices ease, debt also loosens; Oil prices are rising again, and debt could flip at any time.
This wave of stock and bond gains looks lively, but actually quite crisp.The doji pressed down on the target for seven seconds, and the wind shifted. The entire U.S. market was watching the $57.2 million gap in the books, while my scope narrowly navigated the smoke and locked onto the metal pile deeper on the balance sheet—8,002 Bitcoins, 981 rounds more than the previous battle.
Bitcoin in the U.S., the Trump family's mining machine that roars day and night, delivered its third consecutive quarterly loss in Q2: a net loss of $57.2 million, of which $71.2 million was a fair value impairment of crypto assets. The paper scratch is not a bullet magazine bleeding. Revenue was about 67 million, with a record production of 932 BTC, while reserves increased by a net 981 BTC—the increase in holdings roughly equals output. They never opened the magazine cover, pressing every bullet they fired back into the vault intact. The unrealized losses on paper are a disguised web, with the real arsenal expanding by 14% underground.
The Wall Street observers who habitually use profit and loss statements for elevation measurements only shout "short" at the red circle. A true ace never looks at the printed pattern on the enemy's target badge, only at the direction of the opponent's gun barrel and the direction of the ammunition piled. This mining farm uses floating losses as bait to trade for ambush time that doesn't sell a single bullet. Classic long-term lurk.
That same week, Trump media reduced the BTC vault to just the staking margin. One was loading magazines, the other was disassembling the gun and leaving the field. The same game of chess, two sets of commands, with opposite directions.
Winds are southeast, with winds of 2.8 meters per second, correcting the quarter mile. The spot spot token called $XUSAR has a large crossover, but it's just the muffled sound of a bullet slicing through the air at supersonic speed and returning to the ground.
I don't see those red numbers jumping on the report. There was only one thing in my eyes: 8,002 steel-core rounds, all loaded, the safety was activated.AMD is handing over its papers tonight, SpaceX is also submitting papers tonight, and Circle is the grand finale tomorrow—I stared at the earnings dates of these three companies and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: some are going to claim scholarships, some are submitting self-criticism letters, and some may be dropping out.
📊 Let's look at the schedule first: three financial reports, three different destinies
August 4 After-market Close: AMD + SpaceX compete head-to-head
AMD (AMD.O) expects revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year; Adjusted earnings per share were $1.62, a year-over-year surge of 237%. The options market bets on stock price fluctuations of 10%-12.4% after betting on earnings.
SpaceX (SPCX.O) expects revenue of $6.93 billion, with an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share. The options market bets on a 15% fluctuation, meaning the $225 billion market cap could instantly evaporate or expand.
Pre-market on August 5: Circle makes the grand finale
Circle (CRCL.N) expects revenue of $717–735 million, up 11% year-over-year; Earnings per share ranged from $0.16 to $0.19, compared to a loss of $0.43 in the same period last year. USDC circulating supply was $73.7 billion, down 4.6% quarter-on-quarter.
🔍 AMD: Top students submit their papers, but the proctor changes
If AMD showed this report card, it would have risen 20% three months ago. But the problem is—AI concept stocks have collectively collapsed, and AMD itself has pulled back nearly 19% from its June high.
The data center business is expected to reach $6.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101%. Server chips 4 billion yuan, AI chips 2.5 billion yuan. Client business reached 3 billion yuan, up 20%; gaming business was 781 million, down 30%.
What really matters is not whether revenue exceeds expectations but gross margin. AMD's own guidance is that its non-GAAP gross margin is close to 56%. If it can't even hold 56%, it means it's engaged in a price war with Nvidia. If it exceeds the limit, that's the real "AMD Yes."
In the past eight quarters, AMD has exceeded expectations seven times. But this time is different—it's no longer surprising that expectations have exceeded expectations; what's remarkable is that prices can rise after exceeding expectations.
🚀 SpaceX: Problematic students submit self-reflection letters, and the day after tomorrow will be watched by the whole school
SPCX fell from its IPO price of $150 to $114, and has been repeatedly halved from its all-time high of $225.64. Short positions amounted to $24.6 billion, accounting for 34% of outstanding shares.
Revenue forecast is 6.93 billion yuan, a significant increase from Q1's 4.7 billion yuan. Starlink's revenue is expected to be 3.82 billion, with operating profit of 1.42 billion. But the entire company is still losing money—EBIT forecast: -$1.55 billion.
But that's not the point. The key point is August 6 — 911.5 million shares unlocked, equivalent to $100 billion in market value flooding into the market. Currently, only 639 million shares are outstanding (accounting for 5% of total share capital), but after the lock-up is lifted, this will directly double to 12%**.
No matter how bad the financial report is, it's just so-so, but unlocking the lock-up can really crush the stock price.
💰 Circle: The crypto world's "money printer" is handing over its job, but the machine seems to be stuck
Circle is the only one among these three to turn a profit—last year it lost 0.43, this year it made 0.19. Revenue was 735 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year.
But there is a hidden risk: the circulating supply of USDC has dropped from 77 billion to 73.7 billion, a decrease of 4.6%. For Circle, this is equivalent to "the printing press running at a slower pace"—USDC circulation directly determines reserve revenue, which accounts for over 90% of Circle's total revenue.
Even more painful is that Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating, cutting its target price by 64%. The stock price has fallen 21% this year, dropping 3.61% just Monday to close at $60.35.
💎 Horizontal comparison: Who are the real winners?
Putting AMD, SPCX, and Circle next to tech giants' earnings reports from a few days ago is so beautiful that I can't bear to look at it:
Amazon: Revenue of $200.6 billion, AWS up 37%, market value surpasses $3 trillion—top students received full scholarships.
Microsoft: Revenue of 90 billion, Azure up 43%, up 23% in three days—top students received national scholarships.
Google: Revenue of 119.8 billion, the strongest cloud business ever, market value surpasses Apple—top student won the President's Scholarship.
Apple: Revenue of 109.4 billion, but guidance below expectations, market value evaporated by 350 billion—top student scored 95, parents asked, "Why not 100?" ”
Tesla: Revenue of 28.2 billion yuan, but profits crashed 57%, down 28% this year—a student with a strong academic background, perfect scores in math but failed Chinese.
AMD: Revenue of 11.3 billion, up 47%, but AI concept stocks collectively pulled back—those with a focus on the fields are working hard to fill gaps.
SPCX: Revenue of 6.9 billion, loss of 1.55 billion, 100 billion yuan ban imminent—repeating a year, the day after tomorrow will be watched by the whole school.
Circle: Revenue of 735 million, turning losses into profits, but USDC is shrinking—transfer student, just passed grades, but some suspect cheating.
🎯 My trading advice
AMD: Look at gross margin. Over 56% is good news; if it can't be held, it's bad. Don't bet on financial reports; wait for the numbers to come out.
SPCX: Don't touch. Financial reports are smokescreens; the 100 billion yuan unlock on August 6 is the real bombshell. Let the bears and insiders fight first, then wait and see.
Circle: Check USDC circulating supply. If Q2 continues to decline, no matter how good revenue is, it won't help—if the printing machine speed drops, the stock price won't rise.
I am the man who went from 10 to 17, then from 17 to 5.5 and back to 17. Tonight, AMD and SPCX are both handing over their papers—one is proving whether it's worth 100 billion in market value, the other is proving why it's worth 1 trillion.
Some people went to collect scholarships, some went to submit self-criticisms. Don't pick the wrong side.
Follow me. I'm not teaching you how to gamble on financial statements; I'll teach you to wait until your results come out before choosing courses. Follow me, and next earnings season, at least someone will be shouting in your ear— "Don't rush to hand in your papers!" Let's first see what the person next to him is writing! ”
---
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
⚡ @你的爱播Misa @皮神 @Wolf.Win @币圈搅屎棍 @可乐谈AI
$SPCX $MSFT Major International News!! #从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Fully Revealed: Hormuz Is Reopening, and the War Premium Has Been Drained All at Once
· Becent: We might reach an agreement with Iran tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz
· Rubio: Progress in negotiations; Iran's stance has softened, considering letting Europe enter the strait to clear mines
· WTI fell -5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stock Stoxx600 hit a July high
Once oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared oil prices would push up inflation and force the Fed to hesitate to cut rates; Now, this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +6%, Intel +10%.
The only thing still pretending to be asleep is crypto. $BTC Stuck to 64K, risk assets don't follow when they rise, and keep falling when they fall. This divergence of "following the decline but not the rise" is the signal to watch most now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price fails to catch up.
Don't rush to translate macro positive news as a reason to buy. Wait until BTC releases its own withdrawal direction, then discuss whether to follow or not. Walking and looking 🧊 $DOGE Staring at the high-profile July ISM Manufacturing Index in my left hand, the audience inevitably erupted in exclamations—55.6! It reached a new high since May 2022, dancing in the expansion zone for seven consecutive months. CME even made a clear 67.2% decision for a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Everyone was watching this pigeon, convinced that the hawks' noose was tightening.
But this is nothing more than a textbook "misdirection."
True tricks always happen in shadows where the spotlight can't reach. While the eyes of the onlookers were drawn to strong fundamental data, the right hand of the market makers had already pulled off a surprise move in the card area: the US and Iran returned to the negotiating table, crude oil prices plunged over 7% in a single day, 10-year US Treasury futures surged by 13 pips, and the 30-year bond surged by 22 ticks.
Do you understand? This is the most fascinating "visual error" in the deception show. On the surface, strong data proudly shouts for "rate hikes," but long-term yields have slumped as if a bone has been drained. When Mate publicly called for the Fed to inject liquidity into the yen, the market makers had already quietly replaced the "tightening" toolbox with a "secretly swept pool" of liquidity.
While fundamentals are surging upward, the spark of geopolitical crisis is extinguishing downward, with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering around 5.3%. This is not market confusion at all, but rather a "double feint" set by the market makers during the reshuffling — using short-term interest rate panic to cover long-term liquidity withdrawal and position-building.
Mapping onto the token $XLLY, it is the hidden mirror above the stage. When traditional capital uses the oil price crash as a smokescreen to secretly grab long-term bond futures, the price linkage of $XLLY is nothing more than a hallucinatory reaction from retail investors due to visual lag. While the onlookers are still fiercely betting on the probability of rate hikes, smart money has already cashed out and left the backstage.
The game is never random; every jump and dive-up you see is a magic effect preset before the stage curtain opens.
#ISMBeatYieldsFall Based on the market trends from the past two trading days, let's talk about the complete price trend of $SNDK over the past two days
Performance from trading days 8-04
The overall bullish sentiment was very strong that day, driven by a recovery in the storage cycle and a significantly better-than-expected outlook in the forward-looking earnings. The opening price was $1,360, the intraday low dropped to $1,340, and the intraday surge rose to $1,415.37, with an intraday maximum gain of 9.29%, and the closing held above $1,407.
The total turnover for the day reached $9.222 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.51%. The forward-looking revenue and net profit both increased by over 250% year-on-year, attracting a large amount of short-term speculative funds to enter the market and compete in the official earnings rally.
However, the $1415 level is under heavy pressure, with multiple attempts to break through this level without success, accumulating many short-term take-profit chips.
The previous day's market movement
The previous day, the market was in a rock-and-out phase, with stock prices slowly testing upward. Funds began to pay attention to the recovery news of memory chips, and trading volume gradually warmed up, accumulating bullish momentum for the August 4 surge that occurred.
Current overall situation
Short-term moving averages are supporting the price, with the bullish trend intact, and $1387 is the key support level;
It is a short-term market driven by sector rotation, with the core market still being the computing power sector led by Nvidia;
Currently, the TTM P/E ratio is at 46.25, and the stock price has already overloaded most of the positive earnings reports. After the official earnings are released, there is a risk of a decline if the positive news materializes.
A simple short-term view
As long as the price holds the $1387 support, we can continue to wait and see; Repeatedly touching the $1415 resistance level but failing to break through, beware of short-term profit-taking funds fleeing and triggering price pullbacks.$UB 盘面+消息面分析
⚠️仅盘面闲聊，不构成投资建议！AI‑Agent赛道币种，波动狂暴，合约清算、代币解锁抛压风险极高
盘面现状：
现价0.172，经过一轮暴力拉升之后进入高位震荡区间。属于AI Agent主线题材驱动，热度来的时候弹性极强，热度退潮回调也非常狠。
这一波上涨，很大一部分是题材情绪+空头回补推动，并非持续的真实业务现金流带来的买盘。上方积累大量短线获利盘，同时前期历史套牢盘压制明显。
行情高度绑定BTC大盘+AI小币板块情绪；AI板块集体爆发，UB就冲；AI资金轮动流出，UB下跌幅度会远大于主流币。成交量忽大忽小，缩量冲高很容易直接砸盘回落 。
📰消息面拆解
🟢利好
1、叙事定位去中心化AI记忆层，给AI Agent提供链上持久记忆，对接ElizaOS、Virtuals等多个主流Agent协议，Agent服务市场已经上线，赛道属于市场当下热门主线，有真实生态合作落地，不是纯空气故事。
2、币安Alpha上线，同时开通永续合约，交易所流量加持，AI板块轮动的时候资金会优先回流UB，社区热度在线。
3、后续有ZK记忆验证版本迭代，生态黑客松、新Agent合作都可以成为短期行情催化，一旦赛道热度重启，币价弹性会充分释放。
4、前期深度超跌，筹码充分交换，当市场炒作AI基础设施，UB会吃到板块Beta红利。
🔴核心利空（压制盘面主线）
1、代币解锁是中长期最大隐患：总量100亿枚，当前流通仅25%，75%代币处于锁仓，团队、国库、社区份额持续线性解锁，源源不断潜在抛压；如果新增买盘承接不住，上涨空间会被严重限制。
2、叙事很强，但实际链上付费使用规模有限，代币消耗需求没有大规模跑通，币价更多靠题材炒作，不是业务收入驱动。一旦市场对AI‑Agent审美疲劳，资金会快速撤离。
3、赛道内卷严重，同类AI基础设施项目非常多，如果项目迭代进度不及预期，很容易被资金抛弃。
4、合约仓位波动大，多空绞杀频繁；BTC走弱、AI板块退潮，UB跌幅会被放大，历史出现过单日30%级别暴跌行情。
关键价位
- 上方第一压力0.195‑0.210，短线强坎；需要放量站稳，反弹才有延续；无量冲高，大概率直接获利盘砸盘回落。
- 强压力0.24‑0.26，突破0.21之后才有机会试探前期高点。
- 短线生命线支撑0.148‑0.155，本轮反弹核心防守区间，守住维持箱体震荡博弈。
- 如果实打实跌破0.132，本轮上涨结构破坏，会开启更深幅度回踩。
⚠️小市值AI币种，插针很常见，瞬时刺破不算有效破位，止损不要挂整数点位。
多空现实逻辑
✅多头：AI Agent赛道主线叙事，有生态合作落地；币安流量加持；超跌之后题材轮动，空头回补带来脉冲行情。
❌空头：巨额解锁抛压悬在头上；实际链上代币消耗不足，靠故事驱动；上方获利盘+套牢盘双重压制；板块退潮时下跌凶狠。
三种情景推演
1️⃣乐观情景：守住0.148‑0.155支撑，BTC稳住，AI板块集体回暖，放量站稳0.21，冲击0.24上方；严禁追高，题材脉冲行情，只适合底仓博弈。
2️⃣基准情景（概率最大）：0.132‑0.21大箱体剧烈震荡。来利好就拉一波，获利盘兑现就砸盘，来回洗筹码，等待AI板块轮动、项目版本更新选择方向。
3️⃣悲观情景：有效跌破0.148支撑，叠加大盘走弱、AI题材退潮，进一步向0.132下方深度回踩。
实操心里话
UB属于典型题材博弈币，不要当成价值币长期死拿。行情看两件事：AI板块热度、解锁抛压的承接力度。热度来得快，退潮也快。
已经持仓：防守参考0.148附近；冲高0.195‑0.21冲不动，优先分批止盈落袋。
没有持仓：优先观望；如果试错博弈，极小仓位参与，严格带止损，合约杠杆务必压低。
重点盯三件：BTC大盘、AI‑Agent板块整体热度；0.148‑0.155支撑得失；大额代币解锁释放消息。
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BEAT Trade Review
I reversed too early.
A few days ago, I shorted $BEAT, entering at 4.1172 and closing at 3.0391 for a profit of over 100U.
The mistake came immediately after.
I barely had time to process the win before flipping long at 3.1334.
Now price is sitting around 2.87.
The position is down roughly 82% unrealized, with a floating loss of 25U on 28U of margin. That's not a small amount of money.
Looking back at the 15-minute chart, the mistake is obvious.
Price fell straight from 3.55 with almost no meaningful bounce. Going long at 3.13 was like stepping into a falling elevator and expecting it to go back up by pressing the button.
A classic case of trying to catch a falling knife.
The problem wasn't the market.
The problem was my rhythm.
I had just closed a profitable short and immediately wanted to catch the reversal. Instead of waiting for confirmation, I carried the mindset of the previous trade into the next one.
My plan
- No averaging down.
- No stubborn holding.
- 2.70 is my line in the sand. If it breaks with strong volume, I'll cut the position.
- If price rebounds toward 3.00, I'll also look to exit.
- No dragging the trade out.
Other charts
$PUMP looks strong today. The daily chart is breaking out on rising volume and is only a step away from the previous high around 0.0022. Still, meme coins are extremely volatile, and chasing strength often ends with buying the top. I'll stay patient.
$UB continues to grind higher. The daily chart is showing a clean V-shaped recovery, with the MACD crossing above the zero line. 0.16 remains key support. I'll only consider an entry after a healthy pullback that holds above that level. If no setup comes, I'll let it go.
Final thought
This $BEAT loss wasn't caused by poor technical analysis.
It was caused by poor timing.
I finished one winning trade, got greedy, and rushed into the next without letting the market reset.
25U isn't just a loss—it's tuition. Hopefully, it's a lesson I only have to pay once.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $SPCX
Those who short Musk have never had a good ending in history.
But this time, they have already earned $7.3 billion.
In 2018, Tesla's stock price kept falling, Wall Street was collectively short-selling, and Musk cursed the bears on Twitter, even getting fined by the SEC.
Later, Tesla rose 20-fold, and the bears were almost wiped out.
In 2020, shorting Tesla was the busiest deal on Wall Street, and then Tesla soared sevenfold in a year, crushing the bears to dust again.
Musk summed it up himself: "Shorting my company has a very low chance of survival." "
Now, the same script has come to SpaceX.
The largest IPO in history, raising $85.7 billion, with an issue price of $135, quickly surged to $226. Then in two months, it dropped to $107, halved. Short sellers have already earned $7.3 billion, making it the second largest short stock this year after Tesla.
Musk said on X something almost identical to what he did in 2018: "Institutions shorting SpaceX have extremely low chances of survival." "
But this time, there is a key difference.
When Tesla was shorted in 2018, the company had already started to turn a profit, and the bears were betting against a profitable company. The ending is clear: the data will crush you.
Looking at SpaceX, it is projected to post a net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year of 2025. In Q1 2026, it lost another $4.28 billion. To this day, SpaceX is still a company that has never made money. This time, the bears are betting not on a profitable company, but on a company still burning cash.
Tonight is a turning point.
Q2 expected revenue was $6.88 billion, up 47% from $4.7 billion in Q1, with Starlink having 10.3 million subscribers, doubling year-on-year. If revenue hits sharply, losses narrow, and free cash flow improves, tonight will be a repeat of Tesla in 2018, crushing the bears.
But if the earnings don't hold up and losses continue to widen, then the bears might really have beaten Musk this time.
There's another bombshell in the head: on August 6, 911.5 million insider shares were unlocked. If the financial report is strong enough, unlocking pressure can be withstanded; if not, unlocking is the starting point for the second wave of selling pressure.
A financial report, unlocked in two days, a $7.3 billion bet from institutions shorting institutions—three events collide tonight.
Shorting Musk has always been a life-or-death gamble, and this is the first time bears have a chance to win.
Tonight's earnings report will determine whether they will go down in history or repeat their mistakes.🟠 A potential signal for Bitcoin's next rally may be emerging.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have often unfolded in phases. Long-term holders (LTHs) gradually distribute part of their holdings into strength, then rebuild positions during corrections before the next major advance.
📊 In previous cycles: • The first rally was accompanied by measured profit-taking from LTHs. • During the following pullback, LTHs accumulated aggressively. • Once accumulation slowed and supply held by LTHs began to decline again, the second—and often stronger—rally followed.
This cycle has looked different.
The initial uptrend began in January 2023 and extended through late 2025, with LTHs actively buying and selling throughout the move. During subsequent corrections, they accumulated Bitcoin at a pace that exceeded their distribution.
Now, that accumulation trend appears to have paused, and LTH-held supply has started to decline.
📈 Previous cycles saw the second rally begin roughly 8 months (2013), 17 months (2017), and 16 months (2021) after the first. This time, the timeline has stretched much longer—likely influenced by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued institutional inflows, and sustained buying from new large holders.
💡 The key takeaway: Long-term holders still control the largest amount of Bitcoin on record, and if their supply is beginning to decline after a prolonged accumulation phase, it could signal the start of a new stage in the current market cycle.
As always, on-chain signals should be considered alongside macroeconomic conditions and broader market trends.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🐋 鲸鱼观察：谁还在2026年看好这些币？
=> $LINK
=> $TAO
=> $SOL
=> $FET
=> $SNDK
=> $MU
=> $AAVE
=> $ETH
=> $UNI
=> $NEAR $LAB $SOL $SSV $AR $LDO
仍然早期。仍在积累。🚨 SpaceX is down 50%—and the story may be bigger than the price decline.
This move isn't necessarily about a disappointing IPO. A major factor is the increase in tradable shares following lockup expirations, which can add significant supply to the market at a time when demand has cooled.
📉 Many investors focus only on the chart.
📊 Others pay close attention to the share unlock schedule and how changes in supply can influence price action.
The next meaningful opportunity may emerge after selling pressure begins to ease and the market fully absorbs the additional supply. That's often when longer-term investors start reassessing value.
For now, patience may be the better strategy.
⚠️ A sharp decline doesn't automatically mark the bottom—and panic selling doesn't necessarily create an immediate buying opportunity.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Behind Musk's appeal to SpaceX, a fierce battle between bulls and bears may be on the horizon. 🚀
Currently, SpaceX's short positions have reached $24.6 billion, with about 219 million shares shorted, accounting for about 34% of the publicly traded shares.
This is no longer just a normal pullback, it has become a very busy short trade.
The following two key points are crucial:
📌 After Market Close on August 4: SpaceX Releases Earnings Report
📌 August 6: First tranche of shares opened, allowing early and knowledgeable shareholders to trade
One looks at performance, the other on chips.
If the earnings report exceeds expectations and the market withstands pressure to lift the lockout, short positions above 200 million shares could become fuel for the rally.
What he fears most is not bad news,
Only when everyone thinks it should fall—it doesn't fall.
Whether this could see an epic downward stampede depends on the current situation of Lau Ma. 😏🚀 $SPCX 📊 A curious divergence is unfolding in the markets.
The S&P 500 finished 1.5% higher, ending the session just below a new all-time high.
At the same time, $BTC slipped to around $62,400.
Both are considered risk assets—so why are they moving in opposite directions?
📈 Stocks continue to benefit from strong corporate earnings. Solid revenue, resilient margins, and upbeat guidance are helping equities absorb concerns over higher interest rates.
🟠 Bitcoin, however, doesn't have earnings to support sentiment. Instead, it remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations. With markets pricing in a higher probability of another rate hike, crypto has faced renewed pressure.
📉 Despite roughly $170 million in ETF inflows on Monday, Bitcoin's price showed little response—suggesting meaningful selling pressure is absorbing demand.
The current narrative is straightforward: • Stocks are being driven by earnings. • Bitcoin is being driven by liquidity.
👀 Key levels to watch: • Friday's U.S. jobs report could shape the next major move across risk assets. • $63.3K remains an important technical level. A sustained move above it, supported by continued ETF inflows, could indicate selling pressure is fading. • A break below $62K may strengthen the bearish case if tighter liquidity continues to weigh on the market.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 7月份的暴跌，挤破了AI 泡沐，AI已经进入下半场了，市场的玩法彻底变了。
以前，资本追的是故事，谁宣布投入AI几百亿美元，谁股价就涨；现在，市场只看一件事——谁真的把AI变成了利润。
这轮美股财报季就是最好的例子。
#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
亚马逊公布业绩后，股价连续大涨，短短两个交易日涨幅超过20%，再一次成为市场焦点。云计算业务继续高速增长，AI需求推动企业订单不断增加，资本开支虽然继续提升，但投资者已经不再担心烧钱，而是相信这些投入未来能够兑现收益。
更有意思的是，就在股价创出新高的时候，创始人贝索斯却启动了新一轮减持计划。
很多散户还在追高，创始人已经开始兑现收益。
这不是看空公司，而是提醒大家，再优秀的企业，也需要面对估值的问题。
反过来看其他科技巨头，表现开始明显分化。
微软依旧保持强势，企业级AI需求持续释放，云业务增长稳定，市场愿意给予更高估值，因为它已经证明AI不仅能提升技术实力，也能持续创造利润。
谷歌虽然同样受益于AI热潮，云业务表现不错，但投资者依然担心AI搜索未来会不会影响广告收入，因此市场情绪始终存在分歧。
苹果则显得有些尴尬。
传统业务依然赚钱，但AI功能还处于持续推进阶段，资本市场更希望看到的是AI能够带来新的收入增长，而不是仅仅成为产品升级的一部分。
相比之下，特斯拉承受的压力更大。
自动驾驶、人形机器人、Robotaxi，每一个故事都充满想象力，但真正能够反映公司价值的还是利润表。当盈利能力下降的时候，再好的故事也很难长期支撑高估值。
最近市场最大的变化，就是开始重新给AI公司定价。
过去比的是投入规模。
现在比的是赚钱能力。
谁能够持续兑现利润，资金就流向谁；谁还停留在概念阶段，估值就可能被重新审视。
投资市场一直如此。
上涨靠预期。
长期上涨，靠业绩。
所以面对这一轮行情，我不会因为股价连续上涨就盲目追高，也不会因为短期调整就急着离场。
真正值得关注的，是那些已经证明商业模式、现金流持续改善，并且未来还有增长空间的公司。
故事可以推动一时的情绪。
利润，才能决定一家企业最终能走多远。
做投资，不要只听别人讲梦想。
先看看财报，再看看现金流，最后再决定自己的仓位。
行情永远不会奖励追热点的人，但往往会奖励那些愿意等待业绩兑现的人。 "BTC's Most Expensive 5K: The Direction Is Not Yet Out, Beware Your Account Will Get Worn Down First"
August 5, 2026 · Wednesday
Third Quarter · Issue 92
Aspirin · Period analysis from the perspective of a data scientist
BTC is currently around 64.1K, only about $200 above the 200-week moving average on the upside; The 20/21-week resistance above has dropped to 68.6K to 68.9K. The two boundaries are now only about 5K. Many people see a narrow range and want to trade back and forth. What I see is a very expensive market: both bulls and bears have reasons, but lack confirmation. Forcing bets makes it easy to look in the right direction, but ultimately losing because of entry.
1. Why is this 5K expensive?
If you chase long at 66.5K, the first resistance is calculated at 68.8K, with a potential of about 3.5%; If the stop loss is set below 63.5K, you would need to bear about 4.5% drawdown. The price-loss ratio is less than 1.
Directly shorting at 64.2K is also uncomfortable. The price has not yet confirmed a break, and the 200-week moving average is beneath its feet, which means selling above long-term support. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, it may be cleared out by a rebound first.
There's no need to debate bull or bear prices here; just do the math once. The potential gains in the middle of the range are less than the stop-loss distance, and frequent trading will only turn your judgment advantage into fees and slippage.
Both weekly moving averages are still continually closing. The 200-week moving average is slowly rising, and the bear market resistance zone continues to move downward. Each additional week the price stays in the middle range, the more positions are needed for chasing and bottom-fishing; Once a boundary is effectively broken, stop-losses and catch-your-covers are released simultaneously, and volatility returns.
2. Which side will August zoom in?
In August of the past three mid-year years, BTC fell by about 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9% respectively. There are only three sample entries, so I won't open a short position just because the calendar turns to August.
Therefore, I lowered my position in August. BTC in 2018 and 2022 rose about 21.0% and 16.8% in July, then pulled back in August; This July, it only rose about 7.3%. The rebound left a thinner safety cushion, and the 69K level has not been recovered. If August breaks below the long-term moving average, the catch-up drop will be harder to handle than in July.
History doesn't tell me to short now. It only reminds me that August shouldn't continue to use July's positions and patience.
The macro side only retains one fact that affects orders: the July meeting kept rates unchanged 9-3, all three opposing votes called for a 25 basis point hike, and no rate cut votes were included in the official vote.
For BTC, whether the Fed will actually raise rates is secondary; the market should first trade expectations. With CPI hot, 2-year Treasury yields rising, and BTC falling below 63.5K, pressure on all three stocks will be in the same direction; With CPI cooling and short-term rates falling, BTC recovering 69.2K is enough for a bullish breakout. Only news, no price confirmation, I won't change my position.
3. I only keep two reminders
Currently, it's about 64.1K, and I won't add new leveraged long positions. If you already have long-term spot positions, you can gradually DCA; Plan to allocate BTC funds, and between 62K and 64K, only put in the first 10% to 15%, keeping at least half of the cash under 60K. Spot and contract are booked separately; floating losses can't be renamed long-term investment by margin supplementation.
69.2K: Daily chart closes higher, then pullback to 68.6K to 69.0K to hold, then use one-third of the planned position to go long; Stop loss at 66.9K, first target 72.8K, remaining position target 76K. Directly surge high without pullback, I won't chase.
63.5K: Daily chart closes below, rebound 63.7K to 64.0K fails, then use a quarter of the planned position for hedging; Stop loss at 65.2K, targets 61K and 58.2K. After inserting a needle during trading, quickly pull back to 64K, no short chase.
Between 63.5K and 69.2K, no new contracts will be opened. This is actually the most important.
I leave two reminders in OKX: 63.5K and 69.2K, and after the reminders sound, I check the daily closing and pullback. Before triggering, the risk budget stays in the account. The account doesn't need to prove my views every day.
Data explanation: BTC real-time quotes as of August 4, 2026; Moving averages are calculated based on BTC-USD weekly closing prices; Historical monthly returns are calculated based on Bitstamp BTC/USD opening and closing data; Interest rate ranges and voting are based on the Federal Reserve's statement on July 29. The above is a personal research and conditional trading plan and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully revealed In the past couple of days, discussions about Aztec V5 have heated up again on X, with many people directly equating "faster private transactions" with "the privacy sector entering a maturity phase." You can't jump this step yet.
There are two verifiable changes: Aztec's official Alpha V5 announcement states that native generation of private transfer proof takes about 2.5 seconds, while V4 takes about 5.2 seconds; The average block production time has been reduced from 14 seconds to 6 seconds, and partial proof and verification costs are reduced. On the other hand, the network is still officially labeled as Alpha. V5's improvements come from client-native proofs and protocol upgrades, which do not mean a stable user base or long-term security record has been established.
Therefore, when looking at this topic, the focus should shift from "performance numbers" to "whether users continue to use it": whether private transactions can retain developers, whether applications can run stably on real devices, and whether new public evidence emerges after governance upgrades and vulnerability bounties. The more accurate conclusion now is: V5 lowered the barrier to experience by a bit, but adoption and security validation are still ongoing. It is a technological advancement, not a profit signal, nor does it constitute trading advice.Miners Are Still Accumulating Bitcoin—A Potentially Bullish Signal
American Bitcoin's latest quarterly report showed another financial loss, but the bigger story wasn't the earnings—it was the company's capital allocation. Rather than selling newly mined $BTC to strengthen short-term cash flow, the miner increased its treasury to more than 8,000 BTC.
That decision reflects strong long-term conviction. By choosing to hold Bitcoin despite near-term financial pressure, one of the industry's major miners is signaling confidence in Bitcoin's future value. The company also reported record quarterly mining production, indicating that its operations continue to expand even in a volatile market.
For the broader crypto market, this development is constructive. When large mining companies hold onto their Bitcoin instead of selling it, the amount of BTC entering the market decreases, reducing potential selling pressure. If institutional demand through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and other long-term investors remains strong, a tighter supply-demand balance could provide additional support for Bitcoin's price.
A stronger Bitcoin market often benefits the broader digital asset ecosystem as well. Positive sentiment and increased liquidity can spill over into $ETH and other high-quality crypto assets, particularly if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
While one company's strategy doesn't guarantee higher prices, miner behavior has historically been an important on-chain indicator. When miners choose accumulation over distribution, it often reflects confidence in the market's longer-term outlook.
Sometimes, the most meaningful signal isn't what a company earns—it's what it chooses to do with the Bitcoin it mines.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinMining #Miners #Ethereum #DigitalAssets #InstitutionalAdoption #TrumpMinerLossAddsBTC #MSTRSells1638BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker#从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Are Fully Revealed The Fed did see a rare public split at its July 2026 meeting, one of the most severe divisions in nearly a decade. In short:
⚖️ Internal divisions: one side advocates rate hikes, the other supports rate cuts
· Hawks (advocating 25 basis point rate hikes): represented by the three regional Fed chairs—Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari. They believe that the inflation target above 2% has been over five years and that current interest rates are not restrictive enough. The core logic is that if action is not taken promptly, the cost of controlling inflation in the future will be even greater.
· Dovish (advocating a 25 basis point rate cut): represented by Federal Reserve Governor Waller. He warned that the job market could deteriorate rapidly, arguing that the focus should shift from inflation to avoiding excessive cooling of the labor market.
This 9-to-3 vote marks that the Fed is facing a completely opposite policy direction between its "dual mission" (controlling inflation and maximizing employment).
📊 Market pricing: Clearly leaning toward rate hikes
Despite calls for rate cuts, the market has not priced in it. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has risen to 63.2%, with mainstream expectations heavily focused on rate hikes.
🎤 Chairman Wash: The Silent 'Referee'
Chairman Wash's attitude is crucial; he chooses not to take sides. On one hand, he emphasized that the 2% inflation target would never waver, while on the other, he refused to provide clear forward-looking guidance. He believes the financial market has tightened on its own, partially replacing the effects of rate hikes, and tends to let the market judge based on economic data.
💎 Summary
Currently, there is a serious internal divide between rate hikes and cuts within the Federal Reserve, with the market almost overwhelmingly betting on rate hikes. Therefore, the two CPI reports before the September meeting will be crucial and are likely to be key weights in determining the balance of the balance.$LAB Why did it drop so quickly? Because both retail investors and major players have been selling since the 14th. 0.15% unlock each day, with large unlocks available on the 14th. This coin is different from others; every day it is unlocked by private placements, and at this price, there are five or six times the profit. There's no way you won't miss out. If the price can't go down now, it's all thanks to the trapped bulls. If one day a deep smash comes, the bulls will explode and be completely wiped out. I advise everyone to cut losses if trapped, and clear your positions when necessaryBTC在64000美元附近反复确认支撑，短期多空分水岭清晰，站稳则有望继续上攻。ETH反弹力度明显弱于BTC，1870美元一线尚未有效企稳，警惕补跌风险。当前盘面资金明显倾向主流大饼，山寨分化加剧。建议优先跟踪BTC动能，ETH需等待放量收复1900美元再做右侧介入，否则以观望或轻仓对冲为主。ETH ETF inflows have outpaced Bitcoin, but on-chain has yet to confirm the bottom. What position changes in the derivatives market are signals from institutional funds flowing into ETH? Ethereum spot ETFs recently recorded net inflows of about $365 million, surpassing Bitcoin ETFs. During the same period, the PyCore team began deploying Protocol 26, the ninth mainnet upgrade, and nodes are required to update within the deadline. Protocol 27 is scheduled to be the final upgrade in the current roadmap. - ETF capital flows are the most direct indicator of institutional demand for spot ETH. However, whether this inflow led to an increase in long positions in the futures market is another matter. - If funding fees cannot keep up with spot buying pressure, these funds can be classified as spot holding demand. This structure lowers the risk of leverage liquidation, but at the same time, it weakens the momentum of short squeezes. - Conversely, if funding fees turn upward and the basis expands, spot inflows will shift to derivative positions.眼镜还没换，仓位先爆了，生活跟K线一起失真 表面上看是20倍杠杆做空ETH被反杀，底层其实是拿"再撑一天"的心态去赌市场理性，这本身就不成立 我那天坐在屏幕前，旧镜框鼻托都掉了，镜片划痕密得像蛛网，连4小时图的均线都得凑近才看得清。想着做完这单就去配副钛架轻框，度数都测好了，连镜片颜色都挑完。结果呢，市场没给我哪怕半口喘息的机会。 ETH从1842一路被拉到1884，空单浮亏瞬间砸到1269U，账户直接削掉近一半，清算价2038像一把悬在头顶的刀，越靠越近。我甚至为了显得"专业"，还开了两笔小仓位对冲，SNDK赚了0.01U，UB亏了0.02U，加起来买不起一块眼镜布。 这件事真正让我难受的，不是亏钱本身，而是我清晰看到了自己在用什么样的叙事骗自己。 我复盘了一下，这笔交易从头到尾都犯了同一个错：把"希望"当成了"依据"。我看空ETH，不是基于资金费率异常或持仓量背离，而是因为我需要它跌，我需要它来填补之前的窟窿，顺便给新眼镜买单。这种主观需求一旦混进盘面判断，止损就变成摆设，加仓就变成惯性，最后只能眼睁睁看着价格碾过你的逻辑。 现在市场上其实有一个被忽略的联动信号，就是美债和日元的联The latest macro data delivered an encouraging signal for risk assets. U.S. ISM Services PMI came in above expectations, reinforcing the view that the world's largest economy remains resilient. Even more notable, U.S. Treasury yields declined despite the stronger-than-expected report, suggesting investors see inflation pressures continuing to ease and believe the Federal Reserve could still have room to lower interest rates in the months ahead.
For the crypto market, this is a constructive combination. Falling Treasury yields generally improve liquidity conditions and increase the appeal of higher-risk assets, while stronger economic data helps reduce recession concerns. Together, these factors create a more supportive environment for both $BTC and $ETH.
If yields continue to trend lower and financial conditions become more accommodative, $BTC could attract additional institutional capital as its role as a scarce digital asset continues to strengthen. At the same time, $ETH may benefit from renewed demand for blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, tokenization, and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
The "ISM Beats, Yields Fall" narrative is increasingly being viewed as a positive macro catalyst for cryptocurrencies. A resilient economy paired with easing financial conditions could provide the backdrop needed for the next leg higher in digital assets. While short-term volatility is always possible, the macro outlook is becoming increasingly supportive for long-term crypto investors.
As always, monitor upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury yield movements, as they are likely to remain key drivers of crypto market sentiment in the weeks ahead.
$BTC $ETH
#ISMBeatYieldsFall #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Fed #Macro #DeFi #DigitalAssets #MSTRSells1638BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker📰 Wu Shuo learned that Russia's crypto legislation has undergone major implementation
Russian President Putin officially signed Law No. 282-FZ on Digital Currency and Digital Rights, with the new regulations to take effect in phases starting September 1.
A summary of the core points of the bill
1. Rules for Admission to Ordinary Investors
After completing the risk assessment, non-qualified investors can only purchase cryptocurrency up to 300,000 rubles per year through a single licensed intermediary, with an annual investment limit limit set for individuals to prevent excessive speculation by retail investors.
2. Industry inclusion within the regulatory framework
Exchanges, brokers, custodians, and crypto exchangers are all under the regulatory system of the Russian central bank. Market participants must apply for official licenses to conduct business, and operating without a license will be restricted.
3. Long-term transition arrangements
The bill sets a buffer period until July 1, 2027; After the transition period ends, domestic cryptocurrency trading will, in principle, only be completed through licensed institutions and banks, while off-exchange fragmented transactions will continue to tighten.
Market Impact Interpretation
Overall Characterization: Russia is shifting from comprehensive vague restrictions to orderly and compliant regulatory approaches.
Short-term sentiment:
This is a medium- to long-term moderate and favorable trend, marking another major country establishing a clear crypto legal framework, continuing the global trend of "classified regulation and orderly accommodation."
However, the constraints are very clear: the quota for ordinary residents is strict, making it difficult to attract massive incremental funds in the short term. Do not over-hype the short-term rally expectations of this news.
Medium- and Long-Term Highlights:
Russia has a large pool of crypto users and mining infrastructure. After the licensing system was implemented, gray fund transactions gradually became more transparent, providing compliant channels for local institutions and cross-border funds.
⚠️ Key distinctions:
The bill allows investment in crypto assets but still does not recognize cryptocurrencies as legal payment currency domestically, strictly separating investment and payment attributes.
Trading Reminder:
This news is a structural macro catalyst that supports long-term industry expectations, but it is difficult to drive BTC out of a one-sided rally on its own. Currently, the market is still dominated by US stock market liquidity, Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve expectations. Don't rely solely on this information game market.
$BTC #加密监管快讯
📌 Liquidity Selection | Continue to monitor the list of targets today
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️ Market information observation is only and does not constitute investment advice! The news is focused on medium- to long-term narratives, with limited short-term increments. Beware of favorable factors being realized and pullback.$AEHR Online rumors suggest the US plans to ban imports of Chinese optical modules; industry insiders: rumors lack official basis, and the feasibility of implementation is extremely low
Recently, foreign media cited anonymous sources claiming that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) plans to issue a ban in 2026 to prohibit the import of new Chinese-made optical transceiver modules for data centers. After multiple verifications, this information currently only comes from unnamed sources; the U.S. has not released any formal draft or public consultation document, so it does not have policy effect.
According to the original report, the relevant restriction plan is still in the preliminary drafting stage internally, and there is still a possibility of significant revisions, reductions, or even outright shelving in the future. The online claim that "the ban is about to take effect" is an overinterpretation taken out of context.
From an industry perspective, Chinese manufacturers dominate the global data center optical module market, and the existing production capacity and technology scale of U.S. domestic companies cannot be replaced in the short term. If the ban is forcefully implemented, it will directly increase the cost of AI computing infrastructure in the U.S. and slow down construction progress. This has already met widespread opposition from major North American cloud providers and tech companies, with strong practical resistance to policy implementation, and the probability of it ultimately being implemented is extremely low.
Industry insiders remind market participants to rationally verify information, follow official official announcements, and avoid unnecessary panic caused by false rumors.#MSTRSells1638BTC
The Luoyang shovel reached thirty centimeters below the surface, where a layer of fresh backfill soil was buried—this was the mark of a giant beast that had just flipped over. I squinted, blew away the ashes, and saw the numbers: 1,638 BTC, average price $63,957. That's $11,462 less than its cost price. It was like discovering a jade suit in a burial pit—several strands of golden thread removed, yet still stubbornly maintaining the dignity of a king.
Archaeologically speaking, the decline of large civilization sites is never sudden. It first involved a small "reduction in sacrifices," followed by an even smaller "reduction in tribute." Last time, it was 3,588 coins, redeemed for $216 million; this time, only 1,638 coins remain, with 104.7 million recovered in return. Cutting the scale in half means the tomb owner still hasn't planned to tear down the entire pyramid and sell the stones. It still holds 842,138 pieces—a complete underground royal city strong enough to crush the earth's mantle, with the core tomb chamber intact.
But you should know, what tomb robbers fear most is not large tombs, but tombs where burial goods are thrown outside. When a pyramid begins to move gold toward the tomb passage, either there are more valuable items to be placed in from behind, or the air in the front chamber is already tainted with poison. The average price for this round of selling was 63,957, following the nearly five-month sideways pattern, like a bronze vessel with a rusted chip, ready to crack at any moment.
A closer look at the strata profile: from July 27 to August 2, during these seven days, it moved its coins into the tomb passage and opened a second door—299,843 Bitcoins were dragged onto the chain between August 2 and 3. The dust hanging on the chain has yet to settle, and the next exploration report is not yet finished. Where did the money go? Invest in preferred shares with 12% fixed dividend. That is its "perpetual lamp"—the lamp oil never runs out. But the lamp oil had to be scraped from the burial goods, which meant the cash flow in the underground palace had dried up so much you could hear the echoes.
What's even more intriguing is the phrase—"Preferred shares will only resume buying when the price drops back to the issue price." Now the discount is 10%. This meant that the gold ingots it had unearthed would first be forged into the passage marked on the treasure map, and only after the coordinates on the map were claimed would it be willing to continue digging the main tomb. This is a typical archaeological team strategy: first stabilize the patron's appetite, then take real action.
I have seen too many civilizations decline. It wasn't destroyed by foreign enemies, but by deliberately tearing bricks from their own city walls to exchange for military pay. First, it's tactical; Twice, it's rhythm; The third time, no one believed the city was still impregnable. Fortunately, the size of the pyramid in its hands was still suffocating—842,138 pieces, enough for any bottom-fisher trying to draw the final treasure map to weigh their shovel before dawn.
Rust had already crept onto the bronze's patterns, but had not yet eroded the inner wall.📰 BlockBeats news
On August 4, Iranian news television quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that the U.S. government is attempting to obstruct ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite obstruction from the U.S., negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz have entered a "new phase."
On the 4th, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio told the media that the most urgent and closely watched issue right now is the Strait of Hormuz issue. The U.S. is participating in dialogues and negotiations between Oman and Iran to discuss how to allow more ships to safely pass through the strait in the short term.
Market information analysis
On the same incident, both sides showed clear differences in their statements, which is a typical 'Rashomon' feature of the Middle East situation.
Previously, the market continued to trade expectations of "restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," which drove international oil prices lower and eased risk aversion.
⚠️ Key objective summary:
1. Iran confirmed it would only conduct strait management negotiations with Oman, accusing the U.S. of obstruction; The United States has stated its intervention in the Iran-Oman dialogue, aiming to promote the short-term safe passage of merchant ships. There are conflicting positions expressed by both sides, and the true progress of the negotiations remains unclear.
2. At this stage, everything is just news about the negotiation process, with no formal navigation agreement yet implemented. Repeated reversals in geopolitical news are the norm and cannot be directly declared that the conflict risk has been completely resolved.
Crypto Market Impact Projection:
✅ If the bulls reach a general navigation arrangement in the future: geopolitical risk aversion premiums continue to fade, and risk asset sentiment will be supported;
❌ If negotiations stall and conflicts intensify again: safe-haven funds flow back into crude oil and gold, BTC and ETH are vulnerable to pressure.
Trading Reminder:
Geopolitical news fluctuations are highly misleading; during the rumor phase, avoid heavily betting on one side. Before the boots officially land, maintain restrained positioning and prepare two-way response plans.
$BTC #宏观快讯 #中东局势
📌 Liquidity Selection | Continue to monitor the list of targets today
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️ Market information observation is only and does not constitute investment advice! Geopolitical news is constantly changing, with strict control over positions.#BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves, this news sounds like issuing ration coupons to the crypto circle, but the market doesn't cooperate. Old money isn't coming in to catch the bag of altcoins, but to bottom-fish liquidity. The most important thing the market needs to clarify now: where is the money flowing, don't use faith as a chip.
[Layered Analysis]
First layer: Core assets are the main switch for total capital. $BTC holds steady at 65000, $ETH at 3480 with weak follow-up gains. When the switch is on, they are the last to rise; when off, the worst hit are the tokens behind them. This layer is the foundation, not for getting rich quick.
Second layer: AI narrative is currently the tightest capital cluster. $TAO broke out with volume today, $FET followed along, $RNDR is holding back on the chart. AI has a story, computing power demand, and imagination space retail investors can understand—if capital isn't embracing this, what else?
Third layer: RWA compliance direction, the necessary path for traditional capital to test the waters. $ONDO steadily climbs, $CFG quietly builds infrastructure. BlackRock's stablecoin reserve fund essentially endorses RWA; this layer follows a slow bull logic, no rush.
Fourth layer: Meme sentiment, the rebound during ebb tide is a chance to escape. $PEPE surged then fell back, $WIF dropped badly, $DOGE is just playing dead. Meme isn't unplayable, but now it's all about running fast.
[Market Core Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B
$ETH 3480 / -1.2% / 15.2B
$BNB 585 / -0.5% / 2.3B
$SOL 145 / +2.1% / 4.1B
$ADA 0.42 / -3.1% / 600M
$TAO 420 / +5.4% / 320M
$ONDO 1.15 / +4.8% / 210M
$PEPE 0.000012 / -6.3% / 1.2B
$WIF 2.05 / -8.8% / 870M
Commentary: $BTC consolidates with shrinking volume, $SOL quietly strengthens, $TAO clearly has capital behind it. $ADA continues to decline, don't fall in love with weak assets.
[Capital Flow]
🟢 Capital inflow cluster: $TAO $FET $ONDO $SOL
👀 Watchlist: $BTC $ETH $RNDR $CFG
🔴 Weak trend, no participation for now: $ADA $DOGE $PEPE $WIF
🫥 Other tracked targets: $LINK $ARB
[Operation Suggestions]
Focus on going long $TAO. Enter around 420, stop loss at 395, first target 460, add positions after effective breakout aiming for 500. Logic: core of AI sector, volume supports it, as long as the market doesn't crash, it has independent momentum. Keep position under 20%, no all-in.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is $BTC suddenly breaking below 63000, then all bullish logic must be reassessed, AI and Meme will be hit hardest. So every long position must have a stop loss, don't hold losing positions. Remember: BlackRock's money is here to make money, not to save you.
See clearly where the money flows, don't get emotional with your positions.
$BTC $ETH $USDT $USDC $BNB $SOL $XRP $ADA $DOGE $TRX $LINK $DOT $AVAX $MATIC $LTC $BCH $UNI $ATOM $ETC $FIL $HBAR $VET $ALGO $ICP $NEAR $SHIB $APT $ARB $OP $SUI $TIA $INJ $STX $KAS $RUNE $MKR $AAVE $COMP $CRV $SUSHI $SNX $LDO $RPL $SSV $PENDLE $JUP $JTO $WIF $PEPE $FLOKI $BONK $TAO $FET $RNDR $AGIX $OCEAN $AKT $PAAL $WLD $AR $TON $NOT $PYTH $ENS $ZEC $DASH $XMR $EGLD $FLOW $SAND $MANA $AXS $CHZ $GALA $IMX $BLUR $SEI $DYDX $ONDO $CFG
#BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves $ADA
##BlackRock launches two funds dedicated to stablecoin reserves #ContractTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketWatchSanDisk reviewed intraday trading on August 4
$SNDK Why do stocks that are stored immediately trigger a market boom right after the market opens? $BTC Below is a breakdown based on complete order book data
$ETH Daily core market data
As of 11:26 ET, current price is $1407.665, with a single-day increase of 9.29%.
Yesterday's closing price: $1,288.03
Today's opening price: $1360
Intraday high: $1415.37
Intraday low: $1340
The turnover was $9.222 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.51% and a total market capitalization of $208.5 billion
Early disclosure of pre-release financial report data: revenue up 251.03% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders up 287.02% year-on-year
The entire intraday price movement
At 9:31 AM in the morning, the market opened with a jump immediately. Short-term funds saw expectations of a rebound in storage cycles and immediately entered the market to push prices higher.
The stock price quickly surged to a daily high of $1415.37, with many short-term traders choosing to take profits and exit, causing a brief pullback and fluctuation to wash away floating chips.
After an hour of chip turnover, the sector's heat continued to ferment, with the electronics and technology sector rising 2.81% overall. The industry rallied support for SanDisk, with buying momentum renewed and prices firmly holding above the $1400 mark.
The driving factors behind the rise
The storage industry cycle reversed, with spot prices for flash memory chips continuously rising, and the market ahead of the market to prepare for official earnings reports, with outlook earnings growth far exceeding market expectations;
US stock funds have withdrawn from AI software giants that previously overpriced them, initiating short-term rotation in the hardware storage sector;
The entire semiconductor sector experienced an explosive growth, with Micron and SK Hynix rising simultaneously, and sector sentiment driving each other.
Hidden dangers lie at present
$1415.37 has failed twice in attempts, with heavy short-term take-profit pressure piling up here;
Most inflows were short-term speculative funds betting on earnings reports, while mainline market funds remained in Nvidia's computing power sector, with storage only as a temporary side trend;
Currently, the TTM P/E ratio is 46.25, and the stock price has already overloaded most of the positive financial reports. Once the official earnings are released, the positive news is likely to be realized and prices will decline. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours 加密行业今年往美国中期选举砸了接近两亿美元。
这笔钱不会马上把$BTC 拉高，但会影响后面几年谁来制定规则。去年稳定币法案通过后，机构进入这个市场已经容易了不少，现在行业继续推动 CLARITY Act，想解决交易平台和代币到底归谁管的问题。
对大饼属于中长期利好，政策风险下降后，大资金更敢配置。$ETH 、DeFi 和美股里的加密公司反应可能更直接，因为它们更依赖监管边界。
短线要看法案能不能在参议院继续推进。休会前卡住，市场不会为政治投入买单。真正落地后，这条消息的分量才会出来。
个人分析，不构成投资建议。兄弟们,我发现这市场最近干了一件最阴的事——它把"波动率"悄咪咪抽干了。
量砍了 31.3%、OI 冻在 11.14 万 BTC、F&G 28 卡死不动,BTC 还趴在 62,528 装死——这三件套凑齐,就是教科书级的"低波动横盘"。
宏观上这局面最磨人:美股那边半导体(XSOXL)一天砸 13%,纳指却偷偷涨(做空纳指的 XSNDK 跌 5.96%),风险偏好没崩,只是钱不进 crypto。
资金流向摊开看:OI 纹丝不动 = 没人加杠杆赌方向,市场上真正赚钱的是那帮卖期权收 theta 的人,不是赌单边的。
对 BTC 是钝化、对 ETH 更弱一档、对山寨就是"低波动=没故事=无量可讲",GRVT 那 14% 独苗根本带不动全场。
给你们个能拿走的东西:缩量横盘看三个信号——量砍 30%+、OI 不动、F&G 躺平,这就是"波动率卖方窗口"。但记住,裸卖看跌=接飞刀,用价差(买权+卖权)收租,别裸单。
自黑一句:我前两天手痒开的那两单,在这死水里毛收益没有,卖期权收租的兄弟反而笑醒,反向指标实锤。
真突破得等一个把量重新叫醒的 trigger(降息/ETF 异动/新叙事),在那之前,要么躺平,要么去收租,别在中间硬赌。
老铁们,你们是躺平等大阳线,还是去卖期权捡点烟钱? 评论区押一个,我看谁先被扫损。
加密资产高风险,本文不构成投资建议,纯属个人观点。
#BTC #ETH #波动率 #期权策略 #缩量 #横盘 #行情分析 #OKX星球 #卖期权 #风控📈 Crypto gets a macro boost.
The latest U.S. ISM Services PMI came in above expectations, reinforcing the strength of the world's largest economy. Even more encouraging, U.S. Treasury yields declined despite the strong data—suggesting markets see easing inflation pressures and continued potential for Fed rate cuts in the months ahead.
For crypto, that's a constructive combination.
• Lower Treasury yields can improve liquidity and increase appetite for risk assets.
• Strong economic data helps reduce recession concerns.
• Together, these factors create a favorable backdrop for $BTC and $ETH.
If yields continue to trend lower and financial conditions become more accommodative, $BTC could see stronger institutional demand as a scarce digital asset, while $ETH may benefit from renewed interest in blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
The "ISM Beats, Yields Fall" narrative is emerging as a bullish macro catalyst. A resilient economy paired with easing financial conditions could provide the momentum crypto needs for its next major move.
$BTC $ETH
#ISMBeatYieldsFall #MSTRSells1638BTC #BitMineTopETHStaker A major signal that Bitcoin's next rally may be beginning is starting to emerge.
Historically, bull markets unfold as long-term holders (LTHs) gradually distribute the $BTC they accumulated at much lower prices while demand from new buyers pushes prices higher.
Previous cycles have followed a similar pattern:
• LTHs sell part of their holdings during the first rally.
• They aggressively accumulate again during the correction.
• Once accumulation ends and distribution resumes, a much stronger second rally often follows.
In this cycle, the first rally lasted from January 2023 through December 2025. During that period, LTHs actively bought and sold, but during the following correction they accumulated Bitcoin at a pace that far exceeded their selling.
Now that accumulation trend has stalled, and LTH supply has started to decline again—a pattern that has historically marked the beginning of the second leg of the bull market.
The timing is different this cycle. The gap between the first and second rallies was around 8 months in 2013, 17 months in 2017, and 16 months in 2021. This time, roughly 31 months have passed.
The extended timeline likely reflects structural changes in the market, including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, sustained institutional demand, and continued accumulation by a new class of large investors.
One fact stands out: long-term holders still control the largest Bitcoin supply in history, and that supply has now begun to decline.
If history rhymes, this could be the early stage of Bitcoin's next major rally.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch 🚨 EVERY $BTC BEAR MARKET BOTTOM WAS MARKED BY FINAL Q4 CAPITULATION EVENT
2014 -> Mt. Gox files bankruptcy, ~850,000 BTC gone, "exchanges can't be trusted"
2018 -> ICO collapse, thousands of tokens down 95-100%, "crypto has no real use case"
2022 -> FTX implodes, roughly $11.2B owed back to customers, "it was all fraud"
Each one felt like the complete end while it was happening
Looking back, each headline just marked the actual cycle bottom, not the start of something worse
So what's this cycle's version?
Two exchanges quietly failing? A hack wave? US-Iran escalation? Saylor forced to sell? Warsh's rate hike policy? The AI bubble finally cracking and dragging every single risk asset with it?
None of that felt like maximum fear and capitulation scenario yet$BTC #BigTechEarningsWatch U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, with the S&P 500 hitting a new intraday high. Tech stocks and memory chip sectors strengthened collectively on earnings forecasts, and market risk appetite rebounded. In the short term, this is expected to provide sentiment support for Bitcoin, helping prices continue to recover from low levels. However, this round of U.S. stock rally is mostly a warm-up before the after-hours earnings report. The positive news itself has its limitations and has not changed the overall environment for medium- to long-term interest rates, making it difficult to push Bitcoin out of a one-sided upward trend. Going forward, BTC's performance will depend on AMD and SpaceX's post-hours earnings reports. If the results fall short of expectations, market sentiment may cool quickly, and the overall market will mainly fluctuate within a range.SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce made another statement today. On her CoinDesk podcast, she said she remains optimistic about the passage of the Clarity Act, and even if the bill doesn't pass, the SEC can still do a lot.
The weight of this statement lies in the fact that Peirce is one of the most central figures in SEC internal crypto regulation. The crypto task force she leads has been advancing rulemaking. She herself will leave the SEC in November to become a university professor, so every word she says now carries the meaning of making things clear before she leaves.
Time was tight on the Senate side. There are only four meeting days left this week (August 4 to 7), and the recess period will begin in mid-August. The bill has not yet been put on the voting schedule. Senator Jon Husted also came forward today to say that the bipartisan version is ready, just waiting to advance the process.
The core of the Clarity Act is to set rules for digital assets: which are regulated by the SEC, which are under the CFTC, how exchanges register, and how developers are exempt. Once this framework is implemented, the compliance paths for \$BTC and \$ETH will become much clearer. But legislation doesn't guarantee passage regardless of the process; it depends on how the Senate ultimately votes.
#BTC #ETH #加密监管After Palantir's rapid rise, AMD, SpaceX, and Circle delivered their results that could decide everyone's pockets in minutes.
Let's start with AMD. Demand for AI chips is indeed strong, but whether the money big companies pay for can be paid on time depends entirely on the actual production capacity and profit margins of this wave. Relying solely on hype isn't enough; people pay for real delivery efficiency.
Now let's look at SpaceX. Although the satellite network sector has been printing money like crazy, the R&D spending invested in computing power and infrastructure is astronomical. Plus, with a large number of stocks released during the lock-up period, funds ready for cash pile up in the market, putting pressure on price volatility to the max.
The final Circle even pushed the heartbeat to the limit. The scale of stablecoins is shrinking, but how much longer can they sustain just by relying on the Fed's high interest rate dividends? Once interest income can't cover the shrinking gap, the shortcomings in the business model will immediately be exposed.
When it comes to financial reports, good data is just a ticket to enter; showing the confidence to keep making money later is the real skill.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale