Orbit Post Sitemap
$SPCX $xSPCX are still favored, the box range should fluctuate between 135-185, blindly buy spot below 150, Starlink's coverage area is expanding, including airlines continuously signing contracts, all of which are ongoing cash flows.
Also, about ZEC, it's very exaggerated, many traders are shorting it, so I think the possibility of it rising is very high, after all, nothing fuels a short squeeze better. Enter directly at the current price of 1500, stop loss at 1300, take profit at 1800. Rough operation.
The live trading is closed, even genius traders with 200 million will fall, let alone ordinary people, blindly trusting books is worse than having no books.
Also, my view on spcx
⚔️ If you want to go long now
I would divide the positions into three tiers:
① Chase long directly near 155
* Risk: relatively high
* Because it's too close to the previous high of 156.90 and the 1D BOLL upper band.
* Not a particularly comfortable position to chase the rise.
② Observe again after a pullback to 153.5–154.5
* This is a relatively critical short-term area.
* If it pulls back and then stands back above 155, you can watch for an upward breakout.
③ After breaking through 156.90
* If 1H/4H truly stabilizes above 156.90, the upside targets can be:
* 158.6
* 160
* Only then will there be a more obvious breakout trend upwards.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #汇丰上调SpaceX目标价，长期估值分歧加剧 Americans spent $215 million to build a machine that marks a turning point in quantum computing, which is the quantum race.
Many say it's aimed at Bitcoin, but more precisely, the real threat is to the old addresses from Satoshi Nakamoto's early days that have exposed public keys.
Glassnode calculated in May that 6.04 million bitcoins (30.2% of the total issued supply) already exist in outputs where the public key is visible on-chain.
If quantum key cracking technology becomes practical, these bitcoins will become the clearest attack targets, meaning their private keys could potentially be exposed.
What are the consequences? No need to say, the market will definitely collapse.
It's not that there's no solution, there is one: the community can fork and directly freeze these coins to solve the problem, but once frozen, decentralized consensus will collapse, and the market will also be in chaos.
The reason Americans spent this money on this is because these computers need at least 100 logical qubits and must be able to perform hundreds of millions of reliable operations.
You see, Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography to prove who has the right to spend bitcoins.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm can derive the private key from the public key.
This is its use case and principle, but the government is not doing this to attack Bitcoin; it is being forced by traditional national security and military-industrial chains.
It just so happens that Bitcoin's old addresses with exposed public keys fall within the scope of application, so the answer is: it could pose a significant risk to Bitcoin. ZEC Hits New All-Time High, NU7 Upgrade Expectations Draw Attention
$ZEC has reached a new all-time high. Amid the lively market, voices of skepticism have also emerged. The founder of F2Pool bluntly stated that in the project's first four years, 20% of block rewards went to the founding team and early investors, collectively taking 10% of the total supply, which makes it hard to call the issuance fair. The current price surge is not purely driven by technical narratives; expectations for an ETF, hardware wallet collaborations, and short squeeze combined have temporarily overshadowed the controversies surrounding the project itself.
$ZENT rose 11% simultaneously, but this is a follow-the-trend move driven by the privacy sector rally, without independent positive catalysts. Riding the sector's momentum, once the funds retreat, the speed of decline could be equally significant.
The market thus raises a core question: if privacy is truly Zcash's moat, why is shielded transaction addressing not the system default, and why do the vast majority of assets remain in transparent addresses?
In this round of market activity, funds are betting on the NU7 upgrade expectations, hoping the protocol will further enhance privacy capabilities. However, we need to distinguish narrative from fundamentals; rallies driven by sector hype often experience huge volatility. Privacy coins have relatively small market caps, so capital inflows and outflows can easily cause sharp spikes. Trading should avoid blindly chasing highs.
Market observations do not constitute investment advice $COTI's 26% surge this round, which side is the capital really on?
The answer lies in the funding rate: a negative rate of -0.0025% indicates shorts are still paying to hold positions, while the price has already risen above MA5 (0.023484) and MA20 (0.02174). This is a typical scenario where shorts are passively getting hit. But don't rush to chase — the MACD histogram is still negative (-2.176e-05), and the RSI at 56.4 is only moderately bullish, indicating the bulls haven't fully taken control yet. A 44% amplitude over 30 candles means a wick could appear anytime, potentially wiping out high-leverage long positions. The greed index is 56, showing sentiment is warm but not extreme, so capital is more likely to choose a pullback to accumulate rather than forcing a short squeeze.
My judgment: short-term bullish, but only enter on a pullback. Entry reference is 0.0217–0.0225 (MA20 support coinciding with the current lower price, Bollinger lower band at 0.0171 as an extreme defense line). Take profit 1 is at 0.0248 (near previous highs, just below the Bollinger upper band at 0.02636); take profit 2 is at 0.0263 (Bollinger upper band, a shift from negative to positive funding rate could easily trigger short covering). Stop loss is set at 0.0208 (a valid break below MA20 would break the bullish structure). If the funding rate quickly turns positive and the price stagnates, it indicates crowded bulls and a decisive exit is needed.$ZEC has no previous highs, meaning there is no trapped selling pressure above, so when the price rises, no one is in a hurry to sell to cut losses. The fuel for this rally is actually the shorts' own stop-loss orders; when the price pushes up a level, a batch of short positions is forcibly closed, and the closing of these positions turns into buy orders.
From a trader's perspective, the risk of shorting under this structure is asymmetric. The more shorts are squeezed, the stronger the momentum pushing the price, until the shorts admit defeat and exit, at which point the pushing force disappears. Those who are passive are the ones who haven't stopped their losses yet.
Therefore, what really needs to be watched is not the price, but the funding rate and open interest. When the funding rate turns negative and open interest starts to decline, it indicates shorts are withdrawing, and this squeeze is nearing its end. Conversely, as long as shorts are still adding positions, the chain reaction is not over yet.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 $ZEC Thinking back, when BTC just broke the previous high, I was so excited I went all in, but eight out of ten times I got stopped out by a wick.
Now BTC is at 77298, back at this level. I take a deep breath and don't make a move.
Last time it broke out like this, I chased in and got hit by a wick back to 76500, stuck for two weeks. Since then, I've set a rule: don't chase breakouts, wait for a pullback near 77000 to buy.
Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800. Losing 200,000U taught me: holding back from chasing is more effective than any technique. $BTC #Withdrew from Kraken in April, deposited back in September, 1651.82 BTC, earning 15.21 million.
In five months, a complete turnaround.
I stared at this number for a long time, and my first reaction wasn’t envy, but—why didn’t he just hold on?
Isn’t the logic of long-term holding just "wait a little longer"?
In the end, he waited until the amount reached 126 million and chose to cash out.
This move is more honest than any trading signal.
Retail investors are still debating how the cycle will go after the halving, but the whales have already voted with their feet.
Of course, it could also be just portfolio adjustment, maybe switching to something else, or simply feeling comfortable with this position.
But clearing out all 1651 BTC, leaving no base position, is a signal I don’t like.
If such large-scale inflows continue to appear on Kraken later, then it’s not just one person’s matter.
Keep an eye on it.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $BTC $ZEC was pumped so much that some shorts entered the market trying to get rich quick, with the vast majority using leverage above 20x. Watching the market maker's pumping tactics, they raised the price by two to three points in one go, waited for the shorts to cover their positions, then pumped another three points to directly harvest the profits.Don't be fooled by the 24-hour -1.37% bearish candle; the load-bearing system of $ENA is not collapsing but undergoing a very narrow foundational settlement. Current price $0.08, daily retracement only 1.37%, which in construction terms is just a slight template adjustment; what really deserves attention is the short-term RSI having dropped to 30.1, just one steel reinforcement layer away from the oversold zone, while the long-term RSI remains steady at 51.6, indicating the main beam is still near the neutral axis with no plastic hinge formed.
The Bollinger Bands resemble construction survey data: short-term price is at the 3rd percentile, only 0.1% from the lower band, almost touching the support scaffolding, with 2.2% room to rebound to the upper band; mid-term price is at the 14th percentile, 1.4% from the lower band and 8.3% from the upper band, a typical bottom structure slope-finding process—first compact the backfill soil, then talk about upward slope. The signal to buy is not because sentiment has warmed, but because the price has been pressed near the foundation slab, narrowing risk exposure.
Trading plans cannot be made on a whim; they must be laid out according to key points. Entry is set at $0.08, 2.8% below the current price, equivalent to embedding the footing into old soil layers rather than erecting columns on loose soil; first target $0.09, 5.1% above current price, corresponding to the first ring beam; second target $0.09, 8.3% above current price, representing the upper frame node; stop loss $0.07, 13.1% below current price, once breached, it means the foundation slab's buoyancy resistance calculation has failed, requiring formwork removal and redo, not just relying on surface decoration to hold.
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.08 (current price -2.8%)
Take Profit 1: $0.09 (+5.1%)
Take Profit 2: $0.09 (+8.3%)
Stop Loss: $0.07 (-13.1%)
Currently, $ENA's blueprint is intact, the load-bearing walls have no cracks, only a retest and compaction is missing. The short-term RSI at 30.1 and the Bollinger lower band at 0.1% distance have already compressed construction errors to the limit; if it can't hold here, all subsequent ecological narratives are just facade renderings. Structure waits for no one; a breakdown means formwork removal, standing firm means topping out.🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT ENGINES
$BTC → Macro liquidity + institutional flows
$ETH → Settlement + capital infrastructure
$SOL → Execution + high on-chain activity
$BTC reacts first to rates, liquidity, and institutional positioning.
$ETH captures structural demand through its broader financial stack.
$SOL thrives when users, capital, and on-chain activity accelerate.
Same market.
Three different engines.
Three different demand mechanisms. Who understands this? The $ZEC market rally is really getting crazier the more you watch it.
The price keeps surging, while the whales keep moving chips out of exchanges. One address withdrew nearly $23 million worth of coins in a single day, and four addresses combined moved close to $46 million. New wallets are clustering to accumulate, and the on-chain data is getting more intense by the minute.
Initially, there was concern that ZEC might quickly pull back after such a sharp rise, but the on-chain data gave a contrary signal—the higher the price goes, the more large chips are transferred from exchanges to new wallets. This is interesting. Usually, a pump means hoarding on exchanges for easy dumping; this time, the fiercer the rise, the more active the outward transfers. The spot available for easy dumping on exchanges is shrinking, and supply is tightening continuously. The real issue isn’t how high the price is, but that the spot supply structure is quietly tightening.
As long as this continuous withdrawal of coins doesn’t stop, the spot supply structure in this rally won’t weaken easily. The tighter the supply gets, the bigger the potential upside.
Back in 2021, during that on-chain accumulation rally, the price rose and exchange balances dropped. Many thought the price had risen too much and would correct, but after the spot was locked up, the price actually went up significantly again. What really suppresses the market isn’t valuation, but the chips that can be dumped at any time.
For this $ZEC rally, the price is surging, withdrawals are frequent, supply is tightening, and the structure is more worth watching than the price.
Keep an eye on whether the on-chain withdrawals stop. As long as large chips keep moving to new wallets and exchange spot continues to decrease, the rally won’t weaken easily. But if withdrawals stop and large chips start flowing back to exchanges, then caution is needed. For now, follow the on-chain data.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC $ETH ZEC Consecutive Days of Strong Rally Market Analysis
Against the backdrop of overall market volatility and the failure of the crypto bill vote, ZEC has shown an independent trend, rallying strongly for several consecutive days and significantly outperforming mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. This round of increase is not a broad market rally but a structural market driven by the privacy sector narrative, on-chain supply contraction, and capital competition. However, it has a strong short-term speculative nature, and the risks should not be underestimated.
From the news and fundamentals perspective, ZEC uses an optional privacy zk-SNARK architecture, which offers greater regulatory tolerance compared to privacy coins with mandatory anonymity. Grayscale's submission of a ZEC spot ETF application has brought institutional entry expectations to the market; meanwhile, the network completed the Ironwood security upgrade, fixing zero-knowledge proof vulnerabilities and addressing the market's biggest technical concerns, thereby restoring capital confidence. A large amount of ZEC has been transferred into the shielded pool, passively reducing circulating tradable chips and creating supply contraction. Coupled with the block reward reduction after halving, the supply-demand structure supports this round of the market. Even though the US crypto bill vote failed, the market has begun to reprice the long-term value of privacy assets, with capital shifting to this niche sector for hedging and speculation.
From the capital market perspective, this rally shows obvious short squeeze characteristics. During the previous long-term sideways phase, the market was generally bearish on privacy coins, accumulating a large number of short positions in derivatives. After the price broke through key resistance, short positions were concentratedly liquidated, and passive buying continued to push the price up. However, the rise is mainly driven by short-term speculative funds rather than large-scale long-term institutional capital, making it a theme rotation market.
Technically, multiple consecutive large bullish candles have opened an upward channel, with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment, and bulls fully dominating the market. But after continuous rallies, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, with abundant short-term profit-taking and gradually emerging overhead resistance from locked-in positions. If capital relay is insufficient, a rapid pullback is likely.
Outlook: ZEC is a highly elastic niche coin, with its market highly dependent on sector sentiment. Regulatory risks in the privacy sector persist long-term; the EU has already announced restrictions on privacy coin trading by 2027, which is a long-term overhanging negative factor. The short-term market is a theme-driven speculation and is not suitable for chasing highs. Going forward, the key focus is whether capital can continue to relay. If sector enthusiasm fades and high-level chips are cashed out, a sharp correction will follow.BTC is currently around $76,744, with MACD weak, EMA showing a weak golden cross, consolidating in a key range, resistance at $76,811, support at $76,565. ETH is currently around $2,464, EMA golden cross indicates short-term strength, but RSI at 70.89 is close to overbought, facing resistance at $2,472, caution needed for a pullback after a rally. $BTC $ETH
In contrast, ZEC has surged 3x in a month to above $1,500. The bullish logic is very strong: ETF approval expectations, protocol upgrades, institutional entries like Paradigm, and the 2028 halving narrative have triggered FOMO and a short squeeze. However, a huge "expectation gap" hides risks: ZEC's market cap is comparable to L1 public chains like Sol, but real usage metrics such as active addresses have not grown accordingly, and RSI is as high as 87, extremely overbought.
Overall, BTC and ETH face resistance and overbought pullback pressure in the short term; ZEC is a typical "narrative-driven" short squeeze. Buy on expectations, sell on reality. If subsequent data proves it is just capital rotation, the bubble burst risk is very high. The current game is very difficult; avoid blindly chasing highs and closely monitor real on-chain adoption data, DYOR. $ZECWhat kind of temperament does PONS have? It just shorted and keeps pushing up. $PONS
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
Babala opened a short at 0.69, and the current price of OKEx perpetual is already near 0.74.
This position is currently at an unrealized loss, nothing to pretend about.
I chose to short at 0.69 because PONS rose too fast in a short time, and after the price reached near a new high, the divergence between chasing funds and profit-taking will grow.
But I underestimated its current strength.
PONS is not just randomly pulling up without support. It is a token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain. Recently, on-chain activity, platform fees, and the buyback and burn mechanism have all provided a narrative for the rise.
Additionally, with OKEx spot just launched, new funds entering mean the price is still in a high-volatility discovery phase. Shorting at this time is essentially trading against the sentiment; you can't assume it must fall immediately just because it "rose a lot."
Next, watch around 0.75.
If it only spikes and then falls back below 0.70, that indicates real selling pressure above, and the short position might continue targeting around 0.66.
But if the price holds above 0.75 or even breaks through 0.78, then it’s not just a normal pullback after a spike, but a new round of short squeeze, and the original shorting logic needs to be reassessed.
The short at 0.69 is still on for now.
This short is not betting on the PONS project going to zero, but on a cooling off of sentiment after a rapid rise.
However, it seems sentiment has not cooled yet, and babala is heating up www BTC suddenly surged to 77298, up 1.41% in 24h, just breaking the previous high. Everyone is shouting about the breakout, but what really matters is the second-order effect.
First order: Price breaks the previous high, sentiment turns bullish.
Second order: After the breakout, profit-taking is inevitable, and the trapped positions at the 78000 round number will also exit. So the first push to 78000 will most likely be rejected, and only after a pullback to 77000 confirmation will the real directional choice be made.
I'm not chasing longs now; I'll buy again after the pullback to 77000. Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800. Don't be emotional, a breakout is not a reason to chase, pullback confirmation is the opportunity. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% The news is all rubbish, don't bother looking. BULLA is currently around 0.1036. Since the visual model timed out, let's purely follow the order book logic. This position is right at the lower edge of the previous dense trading zone. If the bulls want to hold, they must increase volume here. The volume hasn't picked up yet, indicating the main players are still watching, and retail investors are cutting each other. 0.10 is a psychological barrier; breaking it will accelerate the decline, holding it will give hope for a rebound.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air. A water truck passed by outside, wetting half the road. The market is like this road—directionless.
In terms of operation, do not chase at the current price of 0.1036. Wait for a pullback to the 0.098 to 0.100 range. If a lower shadow appears and volume shrinks, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss at 0.094, first take profit target at 0.112, second target at 0.118. If it directly breaks below 0.094 with volume, reverse to short, target 0.085, stop loss at 0.098. Remember, now is not the time for heavy positions; keep contract positions under 5%, leverage no more than 5x. In this market, staying alive is more important than making money.
$BULLA
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
@OKX星球 This ZEC, I feel like I'm solving a math problem, trying to find a high point that no longer exists, which is very difficult. Looking for patterns from the ratio of each pullback after a rally, including how previous points like 1295 and 1398, which had relatively large shorting profits, were formed. Everyone can refer to this.
Using 250 as the low point and 688.60 as the high point before this year, the range is: 688.60 - 250 = 438.60
Multiply 438.60 by specific ratios to set some order placement reference points during the unlimited upward rally. This is only a technical calculation and should not be taken as investment advice. Trying to catch the top or bottom is very risky, so combine with the market situation to see if these positions show the form of a wick that is pulled back and recovered. Once broken through, strictly set stop losses.
Expansion Ratio Target Price
2.382 1294.75
2.618 1398.25
3.000 1565.80
3.618 1836.85
4.236 2107.91
5.000 2443.00 #ZEC enters the top ten, institutionalization process accelerates On September 17, the SEC issued Release No. 34-106402 "Innovation Exemption," allowing qualified institutions to conduct regulated tokenized U.S. stock trading on public blockchains through AMM liquidity pools, with a pilot period of 5 years. Core conditions include: • Must be a U.S. entity; • Smart contracts deployed on a public, auditable, permissionless blockchain; • Tokenized stocks must retain the dividends and voting rights of the real stocks, excluding purely synthetic assets. This means that traditional U.S. stock trading infrastructure is exploring migration onto the chain. More intriguingly, the CLARITY Act failed to advance two days ago with a 49:50 vote, and the SEC subsequently took the lead by testing the waters through regulatory exemptions. Market performance also reflects differences in capital focus: BTC around $76,944, up 0.97% in 24 hours; ETH around $2,465, up 1.64%; the DeFi sector overall up nearly 7%, UNI up about 15% in a single day. BTC is a store of value, collateral, and liquidity anchor. But if tokenized stocks truly enter the chain on a large scale in the future, who will bear the settlement layer, smart contracts, and AMM infrastructure? This may be the long-term narrative for which ETH needs to be repriced. $ETH $BTC $UNI $ZEC Big news. Top VC Paradigm publicly disclosed holding ZEC
Paradigm is one of the most influential veteran venture capital firms in the crypto space, backing many top projects. Co-founder Matt Huang posted on X with just one sentence: We hold ZEC. Once the news broke, ZEC surged immediately. This month, ZEC has risen about 202%, while BTC only rose 19% in the same period. Previously, Paradigm only invested in the ZEC development team, so people thought it was investing in the project; this time it clearly stated it holds the tokens, which is completely different in nature—it's institutional real money entering the market to hold positions.
ZEC's core selling point is zero-knowledge proofs, which can hide transaction addresses and amounts, making it a veteran giant in the privacy sector. Top institutions publicly endorsing it indicates that capital is starting to value the privacy narrative. But on the other hand, we have to consider—ZEC has already risen so much earlier, so releasing this news now, could it be a case of good news being priced in? After such a big rise, a full drop isn't guaranteed, but a 50% drop is possible. Also, since the surge on August 19, it hasn't had any significant pullbacks. Entering at this level is psychologically uncertain.
Institutional endorsement is real, but the timing is worth caution. When good news is public, it's often when sentiment is at its peak.
Many projects before saw institutions call the shots, retail investors rushed in, and ended up being the ones left holding the bag. The news itself isn't wrong; the mistake is the entry point.
Better to wait and see. Don't dare to chase longs, and if you can't find a shorting opportunity, then don't force trades.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC $ETH $ETH wants to catch up with $BTC, but market sentiment alone is not enough.
What really matters are the catalysts:
① ETH ETF funds turning back to net inflows
② On-chain fees and network activity significantly rebounding
③ BTC consolidating at high levels, funds starting to spread to ETH
④ ETH firmly holding above $2,450 and testing $2,500
Latest data shows that on September 16, the US spot ETH ETF had about $224M net outflow, while BTC ETF also saw about $296M outflow; ETH briefly dropped below $2,400 before rebounding to around $2,460.
So now, the more important thing is not guessing when ETH will catch up, but waiting for fund flows and price structure to truly synchronize.
If $ETH waits until $BTC has already risen to $80K+ to accelerate, the cost-effectiveness of chasing in might be different.
Don’t chase hope, wait for the signal. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #ETH #BTC 🚨 BTC FACES A $2B+ OPTIONS EXPIRY TODAY.
More than $2B in BTC options are set to expire, with max pain around $77.5K — almost exactly where BTC is trading.
With spot sitting near max pain, today’s expiry could create a short-term positioning reset and make the post-expiry price action more important than the expiry itself.Clearly, the market is rebounding, so what are the people going long on BTC and ETH afraid of?
Prices are going up, and the unrealized profits in accounts are increasing, but many bulls remain anxious.
It's not that they don't see the upside, but there's an invisible Damocles' sword hanging overhead; with every rally, the anxiety only grows heavier.
The five major fears in the minds of bulls
1. The Fed's liquidity cudgel
The biggest worry now is the interest rate meeting and rate expectations. Once inflation data shows resilience, rate hike expectations will return. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, all risk assets come under pressure.
What bulls fear most is not the rate hikes already implemented, but the oscillating expectations: sometimes rate cuts, sometimes tightening again. This back-and-forth causes sharp volatility in BTC and ETH. Even if the trend is upward, a single big negative news candle can wipe out short-term profits.
2. The shadow of regulatory optimism falling through
The failure of the CLARITY Act to pass has left a deep shadow in bulls' minds.
Many previously saw the bill's passage as the key to institutional capital entering the market. Now that key is temporarily gone, and everyone understands: the path to compliance will be prolonged, and the timetable for large-scale institutional entry is unclear.
Without new incremental funds continuously entering, the current rebound is easily interpreted as a battle of existing funds, which could at any time be a bull trap.
BlockBeats news, on September 18, according to TradingBeats monitoring, a large ZEC short position holder (0x362a) consecutively stopped losses 7 times from last night to today, totaling about 5.196 million USD, with an average buyback price of about 1484.4 USD, realizing a loss of about 2.161 million USD.
It was found that before this round of position reduction, the address held 15,784.87 ZEC short positions, with a scale of about 23.519 million USD. After reducing about 22.2% of the position this time, it still holds 4 times the full position, with an average holding price of about 866.9 USD.
The current remaining position value is about 18.241 million USD, with an unrealized loss of about 7.593 million USD, a loss rate as high as -285.2%. The total of 7 realized losses and the unrealized loss of the remaining position reaches about 9.755 million USD.
According to calculations, the estimated liquidation price before the position reduction was about 1508.9 USD; after the reduction, it shows 1550.64 USD, an increase of about 41.8 USD. The remaining short position is still only about 4.4% away from the estimated liquidation line.
This address currently retains a buy market stop loss triggered at 1550 USD, with a trigger price only 0.64 USD lower than the estimated liquidation price, a gap of about 0.04%.
The 1550 USD price level is the most prominent liquidation wall for ZEC across all Hyperliquid, gathering about 20.4 million USD. Within about 500 USD above and below the current price, other visible liquidation walls are all about 5 million USD or less, less than a quarter of that level. $ZEC The probability of a rate hike in October has exceeded 55%, it's time to reassess this rebound now
The market is preemptively trading on whether the remaining rate hike will be in October or December. Regarding the current BTC rebound, I tend to interpret it as position adjustments after the event has settled
• 10/2 Nonfarm Payrolls
• 10/14 CPI
• 10/15 PPI Before these three dates, short-term moves may still be driven mainly by technicals and liquidity
So the current price action is better understood from several factors:
• The FOMC outcome has been finalized, releasing the first round of event risk
• The 75,000 level has not been broken further, shorts are starting to take profits
• Price has returned inside the previous consolidation range
• The dollar and US Treasury yields have pulled back somewhat after the FOMC spike
• The market is shifting from "event-driven trading" back to "data-driven trading"
Short-term trading strategy is clear: trade liquidity key levels with stop-loss, avoid turning point dates
$BTC
Upside: 76550 / 76750 → 77400–77800
Downside: 75,000 → 74,000 → 72,640
$ETH
Upside: 2480–2510 → 2580
Downside: 2370 → 2280–2300
$SOL
Upside: 101.3–102 → 105–106
Downside: 100 → 94.5–95
All three coins are capped at the first layer of the short-seller zone, the main pit below is further away. If the first layer cannot be broken, it remains a consolidation range
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% BTC broke through the previous high to 77298, let me share my own lesson: last time it broke through like this, I chased in and got trapped.
At that time, it had just broken the previous high, everyone was shouting long, I couldn't resist chasing, but ended up buying at the highest point, then a sharp drop trapped me for a week.
Now I've learned: don't chase the breakout. Either wait for a pullback to 77000 to confirm support before buying, or wait for a true breakout and stabilization above 78000. Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800, so losses won't be big if wrong.
Never hold a position without a stop loss, this is a lesson learned from losing 200,000U. The first pullback after a breakout is the best entry point. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Japan's rate hike is not the main player, but it can still stab the knife
The rate hike has been priced in; the real thunder lies in the forward guidance—hawkish bias is the starting gun for a short-term sell-off. But don't overestimate it: the Bank of Japan's influence on Bitcoin is far less than the Federal Reserve's. The 2.5 rate hike expectation has long been chewed up and swallowed by the market, causing ripples but not a tsunami.
There are only two long-term steering wheels: the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace and U.S. Treasury yields. Japan? Just a disturbance causing volatility, nothing more.
A darker variable lies in oil—JPMorgan has given up predicting oil prices, the U.S.-Iran conflict has not eased for half a year, inflation remains sticky, and recession is delayed; this is the long-term looming cloud.
As for the market: the candlestick charts are drawn by the house for arbitrage. At this stage, it's not about rise or fall, but about who gets worn down first—when patience runs out and leverage is maxed out, the knife will fall. Why does the crypto market always pump in the morning?
It's not a coincidence, it's a script.
After the US stock market closes, macro expectations, ETF subscriptions, and institutional portfolio adjustments all pile up to be realized during the Asian session. Early morning Beijing time picks up the baton from the US market—overnight positive news, overseas market sentiment, CME gaps, all layered into the opening price.
The secret weapon is liquidity: retail investors just waking up in the morning see green and FOMO, their emotions are easiest to ignite; market makers have the lowest cost to pump, a single spike bursts the shorts, triggering a chain of liquidations that push the price even higher.
Remember this rhythm—morning pumps are to create space for selling throughout the day; the real direction is set when the US stock market opens at night. Those chasing highs during the day are mostly carrying the bags for others. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been withdrawn for seven consecutive trading days
Cumulative outflow has exceeded about 1 billion USD, with about 296 million USD outflow on Wednesday alone
On the token side, ZEC and UNI are still surging, but according to CoinDesk data, the channels have been withdrawing for seven consecutive days since September 8, with a cumulative outflow of about 1 billion USD. On Wednesday alone, about 296 million USD flowed out again. Bitcoin's current price is about 76,600 USD, still some distance from the September 4 high of about 82,300 USD. Among the CoinDesk 100, 94 are rising. On the crypto stock side, Coinbase fell about 4.4% on Thursday, and Robinhood fell about 5.5%.
A reminder to everyone: a lively market does not equal channel inflows. While altcoins are rising, Bitcoin ETFs are still being withdrawn. Everyone is definitely more concerned now whether the two channels align.Here's a counterintuitive take: BTC just broke past its previous high, and most people's first reaction is to chase the long, but I actually think we should be cautious.
Everyone is shouting that it has broken through and is heading to 80,000, but have you considered how many trapped positions and stop-loss orders are stacked at the 78,000 round number? Every time it reaches this level, the chance of a wick is very high.
Right now it's at 77,298, just over 700 points away from 78,000. I'm not chasing; I'll wait for one of two scenarios: either a direct breakout and stable hold above 78,000 with a pullback before entering, or a pullback to the 77,000 support before buying in.
After losing 200,000 U, I realized: nine out of ten who chase after a breakout get wicks. No rush, the market is not short of opportunities. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $DOGE Dogecoin: Pushed back again
DOGE was rejected again in the $0.090–0.092 range, falling back to around $0.0813. The first resistance is at $0.084–0.085, and support lies at $0.079–0.080. The highs keep getting lower, indicating a weak structure. Meme coins are indeed not favored in a rate hike environment.
FIL: Still the brightest star
FIL continued its recent strength, rising 7.02% in 24 hours with a trading volume of 11.3 million USDT. The MA5 crossed above the MA20, signaling a mid-term bullish trend. However, the core reason for this rise is not that FIL itself got stronger, but that the fear and greed index is at 56, in the "greed" zone. After BTC stabilized, funds began rotating to old-school coins for catch-up gains. FIL, as a veteran in the storage sector, became a beneficiary. Still, caution is advised when chasing short-term highs. $BTC $ZEC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 While $BTC was absorbing macro shocks, $SOL activated the new transaction format that triples the amount of data per operation and is preparing to lower slots to 250ms
Also: nearly 400 million in Real World Assets inflows in 30 days, a US bank choosing Solana as the default network for stablecoins, and industrial robots starting to operate on-chain.
The market is still watching the chart while the infrastructure moves several steps ahead.
#SECCFTCOnchainRules The first opportunity I seized
was an all-in, but not entirely so
20x full position, but it took about a week to build the position, selling low and buying high along the way to place the cost line in a very safe spot. The rest of the time was completely left to time.
Held for a month, finally taking profits in batches around 97 (the reason for building the position in batches shows the closing price was 93).
The logic is actually very simple: it was a judgment on the US-Iran war. At that time, it was already a low point, and the whole market expected an agreement to be reached, but from many signs, it was clear it wouldn't be achieved (no need to elaborate).
Even now, looking at the oil price drop, there is no factual support, so shorting still requires caution. I just don’t chase the tail anymore.
There’s a rumor online that an A9 got liquidated in this rally, which feels a bit regretful. The market is ruthless, no matter who you are. We can’t just short because it’s risen too much or go long because it’s fallen too much. There will always be a few opportunities. I hope you and I can both seize them.$BTC survives through network strength and market consensus. $ETH survives through ecosystem depth and real on-chain demand. $SOL survives through high-beta growth, liquidity, and market attention. For $BTC, tighter monetary conditions and higher real yields can pressure risk assets, but its deep liquidity, institutional participation, and established market position provide a different type of resilience. For $ETH, the key variable is ecosystem activity. When liquidity contracts and on-chain voFundamental Research Report $TAO / Bittensor (AI/Computing Power) $238.16 (24h +6.74%)
To put it simply: Bittensor ($TAO) has a composite score of 38/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves; the protocol network has weak usage evidence; token value transmission still needs observation.
Bittensor (token $TAO) operates in the AI/computing power sector. It focuses on a distributed AI network and Subnet incentives. Competitors include RNDR and FET. Traditional computing power rental is dominated by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rent ranging from $12,000 to $25,000—expensive and high-threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers do not require centralized approval, turning idle GPUs into available supply. Customer unit price ranges from $50 to $500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment is in testing or pilot stages; code is progressing; mainnet/product stages depend on the official roadmap. Latest version is v10.5.0, with 9,920 valid commits in the past 90 days.
At the user level, MAU and DAU are undisclosed; 24h trading volume is $174.22M; TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active natural persons; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (distributed to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income is undisclosed; token holders’ buyback and burn have no annualized burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profitability does not equal protocol profitability; protocol profitability does not equal token holder profitability. On the code side, 9,920 valid commits in 90 days, 100 active contributors, latest version v10.5.0. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A); token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A); market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs; technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK access evidence; strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 21,000,000.0; circulating 11,339,645.9251 (54.0%); FDV $5.00B; next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed); no clear annualized buyback and burn mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Bittensor $2.70B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. FDV: Bittensor $5.00B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. Annualized revenue: all undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: all undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $2.70B, FDV $5.00B, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic scenario values circulating market cap at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario assumes revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top players.
Summary: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 38/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is reasonable or slightly undervalued relative to fundamentals; FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlocks causing price dumps, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. Indicators deviating over 30% require reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitActually, the easiest type of trading is this kind of wide-range oscillation. As long as you manage risk well and don’t greedily chase new highs or lows, this is the best to trade. The risk is much lower than trading breakouts because trend breakouts often eat up a lot of profits through pullbacks, which over time can lead to fear. Breakout trading can yield big gains in one move but is very prone to stop-loss whipsaws, unless you’re a natural speculator like Livermore combined with your own market insight, which might give you better odds. For ordinary people, it’s very difficult to achieve big results with breakouts without years of continuous positive self-correction and insight. Such wide-range oscillations usually last about one to two months, and if done right, can capture a lot of profit potential. 🔥 The crypto market doesn't need all coins to rise simultaneously
What truly matters is often not a screen full of green, but the sequence of capital rotation.
Phase one: $BTC stabilizes first, and market risk appetite begins to recover.
Phase two: $ETH and $SOL see gradual increases in trading volume and capital attention.
Phase three: capital starts to spread to higher volatility, higher risk alt assets.
Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $76K, while recently ETH has reclaimed $2.45K, and SOL once reached around $101; some major coins have begun to show relative strength.
But capital diffusion cannot be confirmed by a single-day surge.
What really needs to be observed is:
Whether BTC continues to remain stable → Whether ETH/SOL keep absorbing trading volume → Whether altcoin capital gradually expands coverage.
Recently, ETF capital flows have also shown significant fluctuations; BTC and ETH products have experienced consecutive outflows, so the market currently seems to be searching for new capital directions rather than having fully entered an indiscriminate rally phase.
📊 Don't just focus on a single bullish candle.
The real signal is whether liquidity starts from BTC and continuously spreads to ETH, SOL, and further beyond.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #Liquidity [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
My DMs exploded, everyone asking Pharaoh, did Huang release satellites again?
Pharaoh says directly, Huang is not releasing satellites this time, he's reciting a eulogy for the shorts. When Huang Renxun was having afternoon tea with the King of the UK in Scotland, he casually dropped this line: Nvidia's chip sales will double next year.
Not revenue doubling, but sales volume doubling. That's a big difference. Revenue doubling could be due to price hikes, but sales volume doubling means real explosive demand. Huang's exact words were that AI contributes so much to every industry that almost everyone in every country wants to invest in AI.
Think about that. Last year Huang said Blackwell would ship 6 million units in Q4, and the market already thought that was crazy. Now he says sales will double again next year, which is telling the whole world: the thirst for computing power hasn't eased, it's accelerating.
The market reacted honestly, Nvidia's stock price rose 2.8% intraday and closed up 2.54%. But Pharaoh must remind you, when Huang said this, the stock price had just pulled back from a high, and doubts about the AI bubble hadn't settled. He chose this moment to speak, clearly to reassure Wall Street.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The AI infrastructure line is expanding wider and wider, supporting risk appetite in the tech sector. Bitcoin, as the ultimate expression of risk assets, won't be absent from this revaluation in the long term. But in the short term, US Treasury yields are still above 5%, so don't rush to go all in just because of Huang's words.
$BTC $ETH $ONE #黄仁勋：英伟达明年芯片销量将翻倍 It feels like ZEC has roughly reached a stage high point this wave, with several short positions taken along the way all getting liquidated 0.0
Looking back now, it doesn't seem like there will be an immediate crash; the bottom support is too strong. It's more likely to first consolidate sideways at a high level, digesting the previous gains.
Today, altcoins surged together, and $ZEC is already somewhat competing for the position of $ETH among altcoin leaders.
Capital is starting to spread into ZEC ecosystem derivatives.
The privacy sector is heating up, and NFTs are popping up one after another.
Today, the zkSNARKs auction received 16,971 bids, with 8,000 NFTs ultimately settled uniformly at 1.5 ZEC each. At current prices, that's roughly 2200+
With this kind of demand emerging, looking at ZecBit Genesis, someone has dared to list at 150 ZEC, equivalent to 170,000+, though it's just a listing, it at least shows that sentiment in the ecosystem is starting to pick up 😄
NFT derivatives, this line is worth keeping an eye on
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 #黄仁勋：英伟达明年芯片销量将翻倍
Jensen Huang sends another major signal: $NVDA chip sales are expected to double next year, and AI computing power demand is far from peaking.
At the AI summit in Scotland, Jensen Huang stated that Nvidia is expected to sell about twice as many chips next year as this year. This assessment aligns with the company's previous growth forecast: revenue is expected to grow about 70% for the fiscal year ending January 2028. The core behind this is the continued ramp-up of Blackwell and the new generation Rubin platform taking over, with AI training expanding further into inference, Agents, and enterprise applications.
What’s even more noteworthy is the industry chain. The doubling of $NVDA chip sales means not only the GPUs themselves will consume more orders, but HBM, switch chips, optical communication, power, and data centers will all expand in sync. $SKHYNIX and $MU directly benefit from the demand for high-bandwidth memory, $AVGO gains from networking and custom chips, and cloud providers like $GOOGL and $MSFT continue to ramp up capital expenditures. The key issue in AI trading now is no longer "whether there is demand," but whether supply can keep up. If chip sales truly double, the next phase most likely to exceed expectations could be the capacity bottlenecks beyond GPUs.What is the most dangerous moment in a bull market?
It's not the day the market peaks, but when you start to think every dip is a buying opportunity.
Because continuous profits amplify confidence, positions get heavier, stop losses get looser, and eventually plans are handed over to emotions. The real big losses often don't come from a single wrong call, but from refusing to admit mistakes beforehand.
Now, I pay more attention to three signals: whether Bitcoin has broken key support, whether Ethereum has new inflows, and whether altcoin rotation has shifted from spreading out to chaotic jumps. If the leader weakens and the hot spots don't continue, I reduce trading frequency, tighten positions, and first protect principal and profits.
A bull market isn't about who makes the most in the short term, but who still holds chips after the tide recedes. $BTC $ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径
On September 17, the SEC and CFTC took action on the same day, respectively defining the compliance boundaries of on-chain finance from the perspectives of trading venues and software entry points. The SEC launched a 5-year innovation exemption, allowing permissioned AMM trading of tokenized stocks and granting conditional dealer exemptions to some liquidity providers, but explicitly banning synthetic stocks; the CFTC extended Phantom case relief to passive software providers, no longer initiating unlicensed broker enforcement solely for providing derivatives access.
While the market is celebrating the breakthrough between the two regulators, I see this as an extremely precise incorporation. The so-called permissioned AMM is a special zone for institutions on the KYC whitelist, completely stripping away the soul of native DeFi’s permissionless liquidity. Regulators sandbox passive routing and physical tokenized assets, but firmly exclude fully decentralized synthetic assets, drawing an extremely sharp boundary.
These two exemptions are all temporary administrative patches; the root cause is the ongoing obstruction of the Congressional CLARITY Act, forcing regulatory agencies to rely on temporary administrative arrangements to break the deadlock. Without formal legal protection, these temporary exemptions could change at any time due to policy shifts, and the Damocles sword hanging over on-chain protocols has not truly been removed.
As compliance entry points are regulated and incorporated, the living space for native permissionless DeFi is continuously being squeezed. Facing this 5-year institutional noose, do you think tokenized stocks can really bring trillions in incremental value on-chain, or will they completely tame DeFi into Wall Street’s on-chain sales outlet?🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT ENGINES
$BTC → Macro liquidity + institutional flows
$ETH → Settlement + financial infrastructure
$SOL → Fast execution + on-chain activity
$BTC reacts first to rates and liquidity.
$ETH captures demand through its settlement and capital ecosystem.
$SOL benefits when users and capital move quickly on-chain.
Same market.
Three different demand drivers.
If liquidity stays tight, the question is:
Which engine can keep generating genuine demand? $ETH Neighboring No.2's recent status
$ETH recovered from 2,356 to 2,475, up 1.75% in 24h, even stronger than $BTC's 1.17%, so it followed the rise. But from 2,615 down to 2,356, it dropped 259 points, and the rebound only reached halfway. The fee rate bounced from 0.0007% to 0.0039%, sentiment is warming up but far from hot. If $BTC turns downward, $ETH will fall even harder, its old habit of falling with $BTC but not rising with it hasn't changed. Short-term bias is bearish, don't rush to bottom-fish. Three-tier active strategy, act according to your capability
Plan A (Conservative): Wait for $BTC to reach 78,400-78,500 before shorting. This level is just below the 9/13 closing price of 78,537, so confirm resistance before taking action. Stop loss at 79,700 (above the swing high of 79,569), target 76,000 (take profit after the first drop), 2x leverage. Risk-reward ratio about 2.0:1, prioritizing safety, small gains but no losses.
Plan B (Recommended): Short in batches at 78,000-78,200, stop loss at 79,700 (above the swing high, clear structural level), target one at 75,000 (psychological support at 9/16 low), target two at 74,500 (below the 9/15 swing low of 74,897), 3x leverage. Risk-reward ratio about 2.03:1 to T1, about 2.35:1 to T2, the most comfortable odds. The rebound with shrinking volume plus the Fed turning hawkish makes shorting here a high-probability trade.
Plan C (Aggressive): Short directly at current price 77,400-77,600 without waiting for a rebound to resistance, to avoid missing the opportunity. Stop loss at 78,700 (above the 9/17 high of 77,577, tight stop), target 74,900 (swing low), 5x leverage. Risk-reward ratio about 2.17:1, high leverage with tight stop loss, one wick and you must admit the mistake; not for the faint-hearted.On the crypto side, $BTC spot ETF is seeing net outflows while $ETH ETF is still experiencing inflows. Institutions are betting separately on the two major coins; no new capital is coming in, it's all existing capital cutting each other inside.
$BTC has three consecutive bullish candles—resurrection or just a dead cat bounce?
Looking at the chart: The K-line on 9/14 was the real turning point—the high reached 79,569, but the close was hammered down to 76,474. That upper shadow line broke the bulls' backbone directly. On 9/15, it slid further to 74,897, then started the so-called rebound over the next three days.
Currently at 77,263, it’s right around the 50% retracement level of the drop (from 79,569 down to 74,897 is a 4,672-point drop; the rebound of 2,366 points is about 50.6%). This level is critical: surpassing the 50% retracement means true strength; failing to do so is the classic dead cat bounce scenario. Funding rates climbed from 0.004% to 0.0075%, bulls are getting greedy again. The higher the rate, the more crowded the longs; once the trend reverses, liquidations will run faster than anyone.
The first resistance wall above is the 9/13 closing price at 78,537; above that is the swing high at 79,569. Shorting around 78,000-78,500 is a bet that this rebound will stall at resistance. MA3 and MA5 are still below MA10, the moving average system hasn’t turned bullish; it’s a rebound, but the trend remains unchanged.For three consecutive days, $ETH ETFs have been pulling money out, totaling nearly 40 million.
But don't rush to criticize just yet.
What I admire is the other side—Fidelity's FETH added 1.82 million yesterday, and VanEck added 1.78 million.
Do you see it clearly? It's not that no one is buying; some are selling while others are quietly buying.
This is the opposing side. The 39.24 million outflow sounds scary, but the real money moving is in these small orders going against the trend.
They don't shout or hype, they just quietly buy.
So, I’m not bearish on this wave, but I’m not rushing to act either.
Wait until the net inflow turns positive again, and it’s not just supported by one or two players—that will be the real signal. For now, watch who is holding the line.
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ETH Main focus $BTC | Strategy: short on rebound, conclusion first, don't blame me if you lose
$BTC bounced back from 74,900 to 77,263, three consecutive bullish days looking impressive, but the daily gains are shrinking — 9/16 up 1.46%, 9/17 only 0.67%. This rebound strength is like that "really bold" food delivery rider, looks strong but legs tremble when running.
Short in batches from 78,000 to 78,500, stop loss at 79,700 (above the swing high of 79,569), target 75,000 then 74,500, with 3x leverage. The Fed just raised rates and hinted at another hike by year-end, $BTC shorting on the mid-slope rebound, starting with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, this trade is on.
What madness is happening worldwide
The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% overnight, Chair Powell hawkishly said this is the start of a new tightening cycle, not a one-off insurance, the dot plot hints at another hike by year-end. The Dow plunged 600 points immediately, but Nasdaq futures reversed to green against the trend. This US stock market's hot and cold extremes really fit the "jinx male lead" profile — whoever touches it gets unlucky, but some still don't believe it.
China's three major indices opened lower, Shanghai Composite down 0.36% at midday close, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.44% to 24,604. The ECB also raised rates on 9/10, with the three major central banks of the US, Europe, and Japan all tightening simultaneously — the last time this happened was in 2006.Solana processed 5.2 billion non-vote transactions in August (record), generated $40.8 million in weekly revenue from applications, and continues adding more than 10 million new daily addresses.
$SOL ETFs maintain a streak of inflows.
The price corrected from recent highs, but on-chain activity did not.
The discount between what the network does and what the price reflects remains evident to anyone willing to see it.
#SolanaCutsSlotsTo350ms
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The current market is showing a pattern where the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker,
with strong coins like $ZEC, $ARB, $UNI continuously hitting new highs,
arb and uni rose 30% today, and arb has already increased 4-5 times from the bottom,
remember not to stubbornly short altcoins during a bull market,
shorting will only become fuel.
I shorted zec and now I'm stuck tight. Many people reflexively shout "go long" when they see a single-day increase of 30%, but they overlook that the overall market sentiment and sector linkage are the real drivers behind this rally. The Fear and Greed Index is at 56, in the greed zone, indicating that market risk appetite is generally warm but not yet extremely euphoric, and funds are still willing to rotate among hot sectors.
$ARB current price today is 0.2174, up 30.81% in 24h, with a trading volume of 64.9M USDT, the most liquid among the three candidates. The moving average structure shows MA5=0.2059 has clearly crossed above MA20=0.1802, establishing a bullish alignment; the MACD histogram +0.00465 continues to expand, showing no sign of trend momentum exhaustion. However, note that RSI has reached 74.5, entering the overbought zone, and the current price 0.2174 has hit near the upper Bollinger Band at 0.2154, indicating a short-term pullback may be needed. The funding rate is +0.0100%, positive, indicating long positions are slightly crowded, so chasing higher is not cost-effective.
In terms of operation, I do not recommend going long directly at the upper Bollinger Band. A more reasonable approach is to wait for a pullback to stabilize near MA5 before entering. The suggested entry range is 0.2050 to 0.2100, which is both MA5 support and close to the previous breakout platform. Take profit 1 is at 0.2280 (extension above the upper Bollinger Band), take profit 2 is at 0.2380 (corresponding to an extension space of 31% amplitude over 30 candlesticks). Stop loss is set at 0.1960; if it breaks below MA5 and loses the 0.20 whole number support, the bullish structure deteriorates.