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$ETH's violent surge yesterday made many think it was just a pump by retail traders, but it turned out to be institutional buyers openly scooping up, no bluffing.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing $454 million; ETH spot ETF simultaneously attracted $141 million, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $72.06 million. Together, these compliant buy orders totaling $872 million directly pushed BTC from 76,900 to 81,300 and ETH from 2,368 back up to 2,518. Those shorting altcoins probably suffered heavy losses.
This is not a sentiment game; it's a real flood of capital. IBIT's $454 million single-day inflow hit a near one-month high, indicating that traditional US funds are systematically positioning BTC as a base holding, not for short-term speculation. ETH has finally caught up, with ETHA inflows breaking the previous continuous net outflow trend, though still weaker than BTC, showing institutions remain cautious about Ethereum. Whales and mining companies are also increasing positions simultaneously; large holders like BitMine continue to accumulate, on-chain large address counts are rising, and selling pressure is fully absorbed.
In short, pricing power is now in the hands of institutions, and the stop-loss line for shorts is the acceleration of ETF inflows. However, if inflows slow down next, the market will naturally correct. Don't think that just because prices rose they won't fall; although retail traders are no longer front and center, volatility will still exist.$ETH massive buy orders crush shorts, institutions lead the rally with real capital, altcoin short sellers suffer total losses.
Yesterday's anticipated "dog pump" was actually institutions openly scooping up — Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $454 million; Ethereum spot ETFs simultaneously netted $141 million inflow, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $72.06 million. The combined $872 million compliant buy orders directly hit the market, forcefully pushing BTC from 76,900 to 81,300 and ETH from 2,368 back up to 2,518.
This is not a sentiment game, but a flood of capital:
① IBIT's single-day inflow of $454 million marks a near one-month peak, indicating that traditional US funds are systematically incorporating BTC into their core holdings rather than engaging in short-term speculation.
② ETH finally keeps pace, with ETHA inflow of $72.06 million breaking the previous continuous net outflow trend, though still weaker than BTC; institutions remain cautious about Ethereum.
③ Whales and mining companies enter simultaneously, major holders like BitMine continue accumulating, on-chain data shows a slight rebound in addresses holding 1,000+ BTC, effectively absorbing selling pressure.
Institutions have fully taken over market pricing power; the stop-loss line for shorts is the acceleration of ETF inflows. If inflows slow down next, the market will naturally correct; Japanese listed company Remixpoint recently made a rather interesting adjustment.
The company sold off all its ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE holdings in one go, cashing out approximately ¥879 million and realizing a profit of about ¥118 million. After the sale, the company's crypto assets only consist of about 1,506 BTC, valued at roughly $115 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that in these transactions, ETH, SOL, and XRP were sold at a profit.
Only DOGE was sold at a loss, with a loss of about ¥3.26 million.
So this doesn’t necessarily mean "altcoins are no good."
It’s more like the corporate treasury is starting to make selective choices.
When asset allocation needs to consider risk, liquidity, and capital efficiency, BTC clearly becomes the option that remains.
This is also one of the biggest differences between corporate funds and retail funds.
Retail investors like to look for the next ten-bagger.
Corporations care more about:
Will this money still be safely on the books in a few years?
$BTC $ETH $SOL 3. Four warning signals triggering a downtrend (the more appear, the higher the probability of a pullback)
1. BTC repeatedly hits resistance above 82500 but fails to hold
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs show net outflows for two consecutive days (signal of institutional withdrawal)
3. ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, with Ethereum weakening relative to Bitcoin
4. US inflation data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations heat up again, US Treasury yields rebound
4. Summary comparison of BTC and ETH downtrend rhythms
1. BTC: Long-term whales continuously accumulate coins providing bottom support; shallow pullbacks are the most likely scenario, deep crashes require macroeconomic negative factors to coincide; three defensive lines at 78000, 75000, and 72000 progressively.
2. ETH: No independent buying pressure, short-term whale selling pressure persists; similarly, during market pullbacks, ETH's retracement is usually greater than BTC's; the 2360 level is a short-term strength/weakness dividing line, and risk significantly increases if breached. There was a moment in the market, especially like the calm before a storm—BTC was tickling around 81,300 like a cat that just jumped over a wall, looking back to see if anyone caught up. Do you think tonight's nonfarm payroll data will push it back into the 78,000 pit, or will it directly break above 83,000? Yesterday, it surged from 77,000 all the way to 82,300, and the price did come back, but something still felt off. The real issue isn't how long that bullish candlestick is, but that after Waller finished his dovish signal, the sellers stopped too quickly, and the price got stuck at last week's high, like a boot that hasn't landed yet. With funding rates turning positive, long orders are piling up again. Under this structure, if non-farm payroll data is strong, highs are actually the easiest targets for bear attacks. ETH is now around 2510, with a rhythm almost identical to BTC's, with strong linkage, so there are no signs of an independent rally for now. Tonight's real variable is the August non-farm payroll report. If employment numbers clearly rebound and wages don't cool down, market expectations for rate hikes will rebound, and BTC may first test 80,000, or even test the 78,000 support zone. But on the flip side, if the data falls short of expectations and the dollar weakens, risk assets might actually take the opportunity to rally again. My current thoughts are more direct: - BTC is in the 81,800 to 82,800 range. I tend to take a light short position, targeting 78,000 to 80#NvidiaHuggingFaceDeal Nvidia has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for approximately $12.93 billion, bringing one of the world’s most influential open AI communities into the leading AI-chip company. Hugging Face provides access to more than three million models, hundreds of thousands of datasets, and a large developer ecosystem. Nvidia says the platform will remain open and developers will not be required to use Nvidia computing products.
Strategically, the deal expands Nvidia’s position beyond hardware and deeper into the software, model-distribution, and developer layers of artificial intelligence. The opportunity is significant: combining Nvidia’s infrastructure with Hugging Face’s community could simplify AI development and accelerate deployment. The main concern is neutrality. Hugging Face became valuable partly because developers viewed it as an open hub supporting many frameworks and hardware providers. Nvidia must preserve that trust while integrating the business. Regulators may also examine whether the acquisition gives Nvidia excessive influence over the full AI stack.BTC ETF data hits a new high since January. Referring to the ETF peak and shift on January 14, is this another opportunity for a short-term pullback?
Waller's speech stimulated #Bitcoin to rise further. Now let's look at yesterday's ETF data to see if it provides a secondary confirmation for the price and supports continued price rebound!
On Thursday, BTC ETF net inflow reached as high as 731 million, the largest single-day volume since January 14, 2026, second only to the 843 million net inflow on January 14.
Among them, IBIT net inflow accounted for 62.1%, with a slightly more dispersed net inflow compared to recent times, indicating an expansion of market sentiment.
Crypto market data:
During the market rebound, the market cap share of altcoins actually increased, spreading short-term optimistic sentiment to altcoins.
Trading volume increased, but the overall increase was only 40%, not an extreme short-term surge. Obviously, yesterday's pullback did not trigger much selling pressure or turnover.
Total funds increased by 1 billion, with USDC net inflow of 632 million. US funds continue to maintain net inflow, while Asian funds only had a net inflow of 39 million.
Today's data summary:
ETF shows strong short-term growth, combined with net inflow of crypto funds. Looking at market data alone, the short-term outlook is indeed optimistic. However, there is a question: Thursday's ETF was the peak since January 14, and January 14 was the last peak. After that peak, #Bitcoin experienced a pullback.
If Friday's ETF net inflow weakens, will the market replicate the consolidation pullback after January 14? Does the single-day ETF net inflow surge indicate a short-term phase turning point?
From the crypto market trading volume perspective, yesterday's spike and pullback did not trigger much selling pressure, so it is clear that the short term has not yet reached a critical selling pressure level! $BTC After $ZEC rallies, will the privacy sector rotate to $ZEN?
Recently, $ZEC has indeed been extremely strong.
So I started focusing on one thing:
If ZEC enters a high-level consolidation, will funds in the privacy sector continue to rotate to targets like $ZEN and $DASH?
In past similar market conditions, there is often a pattern:
The leader rallies first → the leader peaks → the sector catches up → finally, the undervalued targets experience the main rise.
Of course, this doesn't mean $ZEN will definitely rise.
What I value more is that its narrative is somewhat different.
ZEN is not simply a "mixer."
It shares the same origin as Zcash, inherits zk-SNARKs, and later migrated privacy capabilities to the application layer to do private swaps, cross-chain settlements, selective disclosure, and such.
Simply put:
ZEC is more about "privacy payments."
ZEN is more like betting on "privacy infrastructure."
These two stories are not exactly the same.
Of course, ZEN's biggest problem is also obvious:
Its liquidity is far less than BTC and ZEC.
So if a fund rotation really happens, small-cap coins might have greater elasticity but also suffer harsher pullbacks.
I won't chase it directly now.
First, observe how ZEC behaves at high levels, whether funds in the privacy sector are spreading, and if ZEN breaks out with volume.
If funds really start to spread from the leader to undervalued targets,
then $ZEN might be one I focus on closely.
Sector rotation can be studied in advance, but trading must wait for the funds to give the answer.
$ZEC $ZEN $DASH
⟡ Follow the trend
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Trade without attachment$SNDK Historically, every divergence in interest rate growth stocks eventually mostly returns to a negative correlation, just with a lag window.Today's crypto market fully played out the term "macro market." $BTC surged above $82,000 in early trading but quickly plunged after the US nonfarm payrolls release, currently around $79,000 tonight, down about 1.9% in 24 hours; $ETH returned near $2,446, down about 1.7%; $SOL around $101.6, down about 3.1%. Bulls were still popping champagne in the morning, but the US Labor Department came to check for drunk driving at night.
The culprit is the August nonfarm payrolls: 162,000 new jobs added, while market expectations were only about 53,000–56,000, with unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Once the data came out, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back near **4.80%**, and the market's probability of a September rate hike rose to about 65%. Yesterday Waller just put down the rate hike baton, and today the nonfarm data helped him pick it back up.
The good news is institutional funds remain quite strong. On September 3, US $BTC spot ETF net inflows reached as high as $730.8 million, the best single day since January; $ETH ETF net inflows were $141.4 million, and $SOL ETF also recorded about $6.4 million net inflows. Prices were hammered down by macro factors, but institutions did not simultaneously flee.
Derivatives were very exciting: the previous rally triggered about $469 million in liquidations, of which 87% were shorts, indicating that the $82K surge largely had a short squeeze characteristic; now with the nonfarm data counterattack, leveraged longs are starting to get schooled by the market again.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
After the non-farm payrolls data exploded, crypto assets came under pressure across the board. Employment increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike bounced back from 50% to 60%, causing Bitcoin to drop below 80,000.
So here’s the question: ETFs had a net inflow of 277 million yesterday but didn’t push the price up. Is it time to short now?
My view is, don’t rush in the short term. Yesterday BTC briefly broke through 82,000, mainly due to Waller’s dovish stance and the rate hike expectation dropping sharply from 63% to 50%. But the non-farm data reversed that logic; whether there will be a rate hike in September depends entirely on next week’s CPI, and the market is still betting.
Why didn’t ETF inflows drive the price up? Because this rally from 63,000 to 80,000 was mainly driven by a short squeeze and spot buying, clearing out 3 billion USD in shorts. The short squeeze momentum has largely been exhausted, and now we’re in a dense supply zone between 81,000 and 86,000. To push higher requires sustained real money buying, but ETFs actually had net outflows in the past three days of September. This is a typical "price breakout attempt without spot demand following," a divergence worth watching.
In terms of direction, the odds for shorting are indeed there, but wait for the signal. Jiang Zhuoer has already fully cleared at 82,050, reasoning that the consolidation time is too short and the resistance at 83,000-84,000 is hard to break through in one go. The first support line below is at 78,000; breaking that would confirm the end of this rebound, then look at 75,000-76,000, with the most critical support at 71,800-72,000. $BTC 🇺🇸 August Nonfarm Payrolls came in at +162K, dramatically above the roughly 55K–56K consensus. Unemployment stayed at 4.1%, while July was revised from a 23K decline to a 21K increase. This is important because the jobs data is strong enough to keep the Fed's September decision uncertain. Waller had signaled that a policy hold could make sense if inflation continues improving, but today's employment strength gives the hawkish side more ammunition. For Bitcoin, I'm watching the reaction around $BTC BTC will drop to 76000: When the fireworks of the short squeeze fade, those caught naked should surface
Bitcoin's stay above $80,000 is getting shorter each time. The first breakout lasted nearly a day, the second only a few hours, and the third couldn't even hold the closing price. This is not "repeatedly testing resistance"; every effort by the bulls near $80,000 is being mercilessly devoured. I judge that $76,000 is not the end, but it will be the next step tested. Here are the reasons.
1. K33 data has already sentenced this rebound to death
K33 Research clearly states: the rally from around $75,000 to $81,000 was driven primarily by the largest single-day short squeeze since their statistics began. Note, it was not a continuous influx of spot buying, nor explosive growth in ETF funds, but shorts forced to cover. There is a fundamental difference between these.
Short covering buying is one-time. Once short positions are liquidated, the buying disappears. Another key point from K33 data is that futures open interest dropped quickly after the price surged. This indicates leveraged funds are retreating, not new longs entering. What sustains $80,000 without new leveraged long support?
The answer is nothing. So the price will fall and continue to fall.
2. ETF money is "stable," not "fierce"
Last week, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, which seems large. But broken down, it's less than $300 million daily. Bitcoin's daily trading volume ranges from $30 billion to $50 billion, so $300 million net inflow has very limited price impact. It acts more as "support" than "push-up."
More importantly, the sustainability of ETF funds is questionable. Last week's inflows may include front-running funds ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting due to improved macro expectations, or short-term allocations by some institutions before the breakout. Once the price repeatedly stalls at $80,000, these funds may choose to wait and see. If ETF buying turns from daily net inflows to net outflows, even $76,000 may not hold.
3. Options expiration approaching, market makers' hedging will amplify downside volatility
On August 28, about $6.44 billion in BTC options expire, with many positions concentrated between $75,000 and $80,000. Market makers' hedging in this range will create "gamma squeeze" — the closer the price is to key levels, the more market makers need to sell futures to hedge risk, amplifying price oscillations and downward pressure in this range.
When the price falls from $80,000 to around $79,000, market makers' hedging may accelerate the decline because they need to readjust the delta of many call options sold near $80,000. This technical selling pressure does not depend on any fundamental changes; it is the market structure itself pushing the price down.
4. Dual selling pressure from profit-taking and trapped positions
After the sharp rise, a large amount of short-term profit-taking has accumulated at high levels. Funds that built positions between $75,000 and $77,000 have a strong urge to cash out near $80,000. Meanwhile, funds trapped above $80,000 since early August are also waiting to exit. These two forces converge at the $80,000 line, forming a huge supply wall.
Bulls need several times the usual buying power to break through this wall. The current incremental market funds are far from enough. So the script we see is: every time the price touches above $80,000, sell orders flood out like a tide, and the price quickly falls back. One or two times can be tolerated, but three or four times will completely drain bulls' confidence.
5. Macro: Rate cut expectations are being repriced
Last week, initial jobless claims were 206,000, exceeding expectations. If tonight's nonfarm payroll data continues strong, market bets on a September rate cut will further shrink. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity expectations; delayed rate cuts mean funding costs remain high, and risk assets overall are under pressure.
Waller's speech at Jackson Hole poured cold water on the market: policy adjustments will be "decided meeting by meeting," refusing to provide a clear path. This ambiguity itself is bearish — the market needs certainty of easing to support risk appetite, which the Fed cannot provide.
6. 76000 is just the first stop
Technically, BTC's 20-day moving average is trending down, and the price struggles repeatedly below it. The hourly MACD has multiple bearish divergences and returned below the zero line, indicating weakening rebound momentum. If the price effectively breaks below the previous low near $78,000, $76,000 will be the next technical target. This is the platform area before the sharp rise in July, offering some support, but under the resonance of bearish structure and macro headwinds, support is often just a pause in the decline, not the end.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal
The rebound from $75,000 to $81,000 will soon be proven just a short squeeze in a bear market. When the squeeze ends, buying dries up, options expiration amplifies volatility, profit-taking escapes, and macro expectations turn cold, all forces point in the same direction.
$76,000 is not doomsday, but it is a sobering number. It reminds everyone: before liquidity truly loosens, before ETF funds form sustained net inflows, before the price firmly holds above $80,000, every sharp rise in Bitcoin is just a breather on the way down.
Shorts' patience is never in a single-day plunge but slowly realized in every detail of a rebound failing to reverse the trend. After the non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, Trump publicly spoke out, praising the strong employment data while directly urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. His core logic is: the U.S. economy's fundamentals are strong, credit conditions have improved, so it should have lower interest rates. He even proposed that if rates are not cut, it would restrict trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. His words are very direct, hoping the Fed will abandon its anti-inflation goal and shift to easing stimulus. However, the market is not buying it. The employment data itself is very hot, implying inflation still has a risk of rebounding. From the Fed's institutional design perspective, monetary policy remains independent and will not directly follow administrative orders. Once the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of a rate hike in September actually rises, U.S. Treasury yields go up, and risk assets like Bitcoin respond by falling. Here, an interesting divergence appears: politicians want rate cuts to boost the economy, but the Fed's primary goal is to suppress inflation. Even if Trump publicly pressures, as long as CPI, wages, and other inflation indicators remain high, the Fed is unlikely to rashly shift to easing. From the crypto market perspective, this is just a short-term episode. The real inflation data still determines the market trend, not the rhetoric. Politicians' rhetoric can cause emotional disturbances but is unlikely to immediately change the Fed's policy path. In the short term, the market still needs to focus on subsequent inflation reports and the duration of high interest rates, which are the key factors influencing Bitcoin's mid-term trend. As of 22:50 on September 4, nearly 1 hour of fund flow ranking: 1-hour fund outflow ranking: 1. $BTC, net outflow of 130 million 2. $ETH, net outflow of 33.11 million On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, no one dares to blink first.
Last night at 8:30, the August non-farm payroll data was released—the final piece before the FOMC, finally in place.
ADP had already given a preview: 38,000, the weakest since January. The Beige Book also said that 10 out of 12 districts showed only moderate growth, employment is indeed cooling down. Yet the CME shows a 62.3% probability of a rate hike in September.
This is quite contradictory.
Employment is cooling, but inflation hasn't retreated. Core PCE is still at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. The market wants to breathe a sigh of relief but doesn't dare to relax completely.
Expectations are all over the place. Reuters expects 58,000, Deutsche Bank 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC 80,000. Nearly double the difference—expectation gaps are the source of volatility; no matter which side it lands on, someone will get hit.
Right now, there are two paths:
Non-farm below 58,000, rate hike expectations extinguished, BTC rebounds to test 80,000.
Non-farm above 80,000, rate hike expectations confirmed, BTC under pressure to fall back to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Don't guess; if you're right, it's luck; if wrong, it's liquidation. Wait for the data to land and let the candlesticks speak for themselves.
The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it carefully.
#LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Non-Farm
$BTC $ETH $SOLLet's continue chatting. The $BTC to gold ratio has surged to its highest since January, and many people are asking: "Can this strong momentum continue?" They also want to know if the crypto space is about to make big moves again. I'll break it down clearly, all in plain language, no beating around the bush. --- 1. BTC to gold, can this strong momentum continue? Here's the conclusion: short-term it's possible, but don't expect a nonstop rally. Why do I say that? Because BTC's current strength over gold relies mainly on three forces: 1. Spot ETFs are accumulating daily; institutional investors don't panic like retail traders—they buy and hold, so selling pressure is low. 2. After the halving, miner output has decreased; the daily new coins aren't enough to sell, so supply and demand are tight. 3. The world is chaotic; some treat BTC as "digital gold" for hedging. When geopolitical tensions rise, funds flow into BTC. But problems arise—gold itself is also at a high level. If gold prices suddenly spike, this ratio might stall or even fall back. Plus, the Fed's stance is ambiguous now; nonfarm payrolls just exceeded expectations, and rate hike expectations are rising again. If the dollar strengthens, BTC will find it harder to outperform gold. So my judgment is: the trend isn't broken, but timing is key. Don't blindly rush in just because of new highs; wait for a pullback to key levels (like a slight contraction in the BTC to gold ratio) before entering, to have a safer cushion. --- 2. Any big turmoil in the crypto space recently? You might not believe it when I say this. On the surface, BTC seems stable lately, but behind the scenes, it's turbulent. I'll mention a few things so you can feel it: 1. Nonfarm payroll 16.August payrolls jumped 162K, far above the roughly 56K market expectation, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July was also revised higher to +21K. This changes the short-term BTC setup. A stronger labor market gives the Fed more room to keep policy restrictive, while Treasury yields have moved higher after the release. Bitcoin initially struggled around the $80K region, showing that the jobs surprise is creating two-way volatility. Now my focus is on the reaction rather than the headline: 🔹 AbovNonfarm payroll shock! 162,000 far exceeds expectations, BTC dives! Is the market script completely disrupted?
Tonight's nonfarm data dealt the market a sudden blow.
US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 53,000, more than triple the forecast, marking the highest since March. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the employment data for the previous two months was revised upward by a total of 55,000.
At the moment the data was released, $BTC plunged below $81,000 in the short term, and risk assets collectively weakened.
The market's first reaction was straightforward: stronger-than-expected employment = persistent inflation pressure = more confidence for the Fed to raise rates. The probability of a September rate hike had been hovering around 50%, but this nonfarm data directly pushed the rate hike expectations up a notch.
But don't rush to call a crash. The headline number of this nonfarm report is explosive, but looking into the details, it's not a cause for market panic.
1. Employment strength is misleading: 60% of the increase comes from just two sectors
The 162,000 new jobs are extremely unevenly distributed and do not reflect broad industry strength.
• Food and beverage bars added 59,000 jobs
• Local government education added 42,000 jobs
These two sectors alone contributed over 60% of the employment increase.
On the other hand, the information sector continued to lose 23,000 jobs, manufacturing only added 16,000, and healthcare growth noticeably slowed.
Essentially, growth is driven by localized service industries and government positions, raising questions about sustainability and far from indicating broad employment overheating.
2. Key signal: moderate wage growth, no inflationary spiral
More importantly, many in the market overlooked this: employment rose, but wages did not follow.
Average hourly earnings increased only 3.1% year-over-year, maintaining a moderate pace.
This means employment growth has not translated into wage growth, and the market's biggest concern—the "wage-inflation spiral"—has not appeared. For the Fed, this is far from a strong reason to immediately raise rates.
The real decisive factor remains CPI
Citigroup economists' judgment is representative: this nonfarm data leans more toward "stable" and is insufficient to trigger a major policy shift.
Fed Chair Powell has also clearly stated that compared to inflation data, employment data has limited influence on policy decisions.
In plain terms:
Nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; the CPI on September 11 will be the final determinant of whether rates rise in September.
This nonfarm data at most raises rate hike expectations and amplifies market volatility but does not decide the final outcome.
Reminders for traders
1. Don't turn fully bearish just because of one red candle, nor rush to bottom-fish betting on a reversal; the event window is not over, and volatility will continue;
2. Avoid heavy bets on rate hikes or no hikes; all expectations before data release are fluid and can reverse at any time;
3. Manage position sizes and patiently wait for the CPI release; act when certainty is higher, which is much safer than gambling on data outcomes.
The biggest trading mistake is being led by a single data point or one candlestick.
The nonfarm shock is just the beginning; the real test is still ahead.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Reasons for OKX Removing CORE On-Chain Earning Feature
Risk Warning: Virtual currencies are not protected by domestic laws. The following is only an industry information review and does not constitute investment advice.
The exchange has not issued a separate long qualitative announcement specifically for CORE. Based on industry rules, product mechanisms, and community information, there are four layers of real reasons:
1. Protocol-level risks: CORE staking has a long unlocking period and high technical uncertainty
CORE on-chain staking has an unlocking waiting period; after delegated staking, immediate redemption is not possible. In case of mainnet upgrades, validator failures, or protocol bugs, the exchange cannot quickly retrieve user assets.
On-chain earning means the exchange stakes on behalf of users on the public chain. If the network experiences anomalies, the exchange must bear the redemption pressure from users. Core DAO’s early validator reward mechanism had abnormal incidents, amplifying platform risk concerns.
Note: This does not mean CORE is worthless; the exchange simply no longer provides the staking entry. Users can still withdraw CORE to the official wallet and stake on-chain themselves.
2. Exchange’s overall contraction of on-chain earning products
OKX is not only removing CORE but has gradually delisted on-chain staking products for multiple public chains (Avalanche, OKT, etc.).
Overseas regulations (such as the EU’s MiCA) impose increasingly strict compliance requirements on centralized platforms proxying DeFi staking: platforms must bear compliance responsibility for risks, returns, and lock-up consequences of staking. Many exchanges proactively reduce third-party public chain delegated staking earning services to lessen compliance burdens.
The on-chain earning protocol itself allows platforms to pause or remove staking products at any time, as stated in the user agreement.
3. Mismatch between returns and operational costs
- CORE staking rewards come from block inflation rewards, which fluctuate greatly; inflation release schedules may change;
- The exchange must maintain nodes, collect rewards, pay on-chain gas fees, and manage user redemption scheduling;
- If the coin price continues to bottom out, staking returns become less attractive, the platform bears technical and redemption risks, but the commercial value generated is limited, so this product is prioritized for removal.
4. Clarification of market misconceptions
❌ Misconception 1: Removing earning means delisting CORE trading
→ Incorrect, only the "on-chain earning/staking finance" is removed; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals remain normal.
❌ Misconception 2: The project had a major security breach and ran away
→ No official announcement disclosing major security incidents; the mainnet is operating normally.
❌ Misconception 3: The exchange is bearish on this project
→ Removing finance products ≠ denying the coin narrative; finance products are independent and have separate review logic from coin trading pairs.
Practical tips for users
1. For CORE already in on-chain earning: the exchange will execute redemption and return funds to the account; pay attention to platform redemption cycle notifications;
2. For those who still want to participate in CORE staking: withdraw CORE from the exchange to the official Core wallet and delegate stake directly on the Core DAO official website, bearing lock-up and network risks yourself;
3. Distinguish between exchange-custodied staking vs. user self-custodied on-chain staking; the risks are completely different.MEME coins surged and then fell below $70 million, with top FOMO community members joining the sell-off. On September 4, despite Robinhood co-founders tweeting support for stock tokenization, MEME coin prices still surged and then retreated, with market caps falling below $70 million again. The current price is $67.41 million, the lowest level since the $150 million peak. Several top members of the fomo community, known for their steady and long-term commitment, also put down tens of thousands of dollars in large orders to dump, putting the MEME narrative to a pause. According to GMGN market data, on September 4, MEME coins showed a typical positive trend without gains: the Robinhood co-founder publicly expressed support for stock tokenization, which should have been a key catalyst for sentiment in the meme sector. The coin price surged on the news' but then pulled back, with market cap falling below the $70 million mark again, currently at $67.41 million, the lowest since its $150 million peak, with a retracement of over 55% from the peak. A more noteworthy signal comes from changes in the token structure. The FOMO community has always been known for its steady and long-term holding, serving as the core force supporting the token's token stability. However, this time several top players joined the sell-off, placing tens of thousands of dollars in large orders to dump shares. When core holders known for holding hold begin to cash out and exit, it usually signals that the community's confidence in the upcoming narrative has clearly weakened. Good news has materialized, but it can't be sustainedToday's nonfarm payroll report has poured cold water on the crypto market, which was just heating up. In August, the US added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls, while market expectations were only about 65,000, nearly 2.5 times the forecast. After the data came out, the dollar and Treasury yields climbed, with $BTC once falling below $80,000. But I actually think this pullback is very valuable. Because for the past two days we've been discussing one question: $BTC surges to $82,000—is it a real breakout or a round of short covering? Now the answer is becoming clear. If a coin can only rise when the macro environment is favorable, then it's more about liquidity trading. But if the Fed faces higher interest rate pressure again and the market suddenly turns hawkish, it can still hold key positions—this is the kind of coin worth watching. So I won't simply look at "who fell less." I'm more focused on who can reclaim the highs the fastest. For example, $LINK. We just talked about $LINK yesterday, and its price has already reached around $12. Now, facing strong nonfarm payrolls, if $LINK can hold near $11 or even challenge $12–$12.5 again, its strength will be different. Because it has recently combined narratives of traditional finance, cross-chain assets, stablecoin proofs of reserves, and tokenized assets. Now let's look at $XRP, $SOL, and $BNB. These coins have clearly started rotating funds outside of $BTC a few days ago. If after today's macro shock, they haven't given back all the gains from the previous daysBTC just hit a 3-month high — but this rally isn’t being driven by crypto alone. 👀
$BTC pushed up to around $82,200 overnight, its highest level since May, while $ETH climbed back toward $2,500.
So what changed?
Macro pressure suddenly eased.
Fed Governor Waller signaled that if inflation keeps cooling, he would lean against a September rate hike. Markets quickly repriced the odds, Treasury yields dropped, the dollar weakened, and risk assets caught a bid.
#DailyOrbit August payrolls jumped 162K, far above the roughly 56K market expectation, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July was also revised higher to +21K. This changes the short-term BTC setup. A stronger labor market gives the Fed more room to keep policy restrictive, while Treasury yields have moved higher after the release. Bitcoin initially struggled around the $80K region, showing that the jobs surprise is creating two-way volatility. Now my focus is on the reaction rather than the headline: 🔹 AbovThis time BTC has risen back above 80,000, but I am more concerned about the capital flow.
$BTC This rebound is not purely driven by sentiment; the biggest change is that the capital has truly returned: the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million in a single day, the largest single-day inflow since January this year. Meanwhile, the market is again trading on the Fed's dovish expectations, with Waller signaling that if inflation continues to cool, rate hikes could be paused.
My current view on BTC is a bit more optimistic than a few days ago, but above 81,000 is not a level where I would blindly chase. If it can hold above 80,000 and continue to increase volume, I will look at the resistance near the previous highs; conversely, if it falls back below 80,000, I would rather wait for a pullback before considering.
The most critical factor now is no longer "how much it has risen," but whether this batch of ETF capital can sustain.August payrolls came in at +162K, while the market was looking for roughly 55K. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, and July was revised upward to +21K. The immediate reaction is exactly why I don't like chasing the first candle after major macro data. A strong labor market can push Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations higher, creating short-term pressure on BTC. Bitcoin has already slipped back below $80K following the release. Now I'm watching the $80K area closely. If BTC reclaims it and holdZEC epic short squeeze!
ZEC has officially surpassed $1000, rapidly surging from around $900 in a short time, with the $1000 whole number level trampled underfoot.
The most remarkable aspect of this rally is not just the speed of the rise, but the chain reaction in the futures market.
Previously, the open interest in ZEC perpetual contracts kept expanding, accumulating a large amount of leveraged positions in the market. As the price continuously breaks upward, short stop-losses and liquidations turn into real buying pressure; the higher the price rises, the more shorts are forced to buy back, which further pushes the price up.
This is a classic short squeeze.
What’s even more notable is that the funding rates on some trading platforms have turned negative, indicating that many shorts are still holding on hard, even willing to continuously pay funding fees to maintain their positions.
From a few hundred dollars all the way past $1000, this ZEC move has completely broken away from the rhythm of a normal rebound.
However, the crazier the surge, the more you should avoid blindly chasing the highs.
If $1000 can hold steadily and volume continues to increase, shorts may keep fueling the rally; if it quickly falls below key support after the spike, the previously accumulated long leverage could trigger a reverse liquidation cascade.#August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Heat Up
Grayscale's ZEC ETF is already listed, the expected hype is likely over, can we short now?
First, to answer the core question: Grayscale's ZCSH is the spot ETF for Zcash (ZEC), officially listed on the NYSE Arca on August 25, the first privacy coin spot ETF in the US.
However, this "expectation" rally has most likely run its course. Before and after listing, ZEC surged from $510 to over $850, a 66% increase, hitting an eight-year high—a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern.
On the listing day, it dropped sharply with a big bearish candle. Although it has bounced back near $1000, the daily RSI remains above 70 in the overbought zone, indicating extreme bullish crowding.
Regarding ETF capital flow, Bitcoin ETFs are still attracting funds, but altcoin ETFs like Ethereum and Ripple have started to see outflows. ZCSH just launched, with a 2.5% management fee, 5-10 times higher than BTC ETFs, casting doubt on large-scale institutional allocation willingness.
Currently, shorts have been squeezed once, with 94% of the 24-hour liquidation volume being short positions. In the short term, if ZEC fails to hold above $1000, a pullback to $935 or even $775 is possible. $ZEC BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest level since January, can the strength continue?
Recently, there is an indicator quietly sending a very important signal:
BTC/gold ratio has risen to 18.17, the highest since January this year.
Simply put, 1 BTC can now buy more than 18 ounces of gold.
Why is this indicator important?
Because it doesn't look at the absolute price of BTC, but rather:
Which is stronger, BTC or gold.
And recently, this answer has started to change—
BTC is beginning to outperform gold again.
What's more interesting is that this time it's not gold falling and BTC rising alone.
On the contrary, gold remains at a high level, and BTC has also climbed back near $80,000.
In other words:
Funds have not simply withdrawn from gold to buy BTC, but both "hard assets" are receiving attention simultaneously, with BTC showing stronger momentum recently.
Behind this actually corresponds to a very important market change:
First, market risk appetite is recovering
Gold more often represents defense and safe haven.
Although BTC is increasingly regarded by many funds as "digital gold," its volatility and risk profile remain significantly higher than gold.
So when the market shifts from pure risk aversion to:
"I want to hedge risk but also seek higher returns."
BTC often shows more resilience.
This is why the rising BTC/gold ratio can be seen as a risk appetite indicator.
Second, BTC and gold are becoming more alike
There is another easily overlooked change:
The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to about 0.55, near a six-year high.
At the same time, BTC's own volatility has clearly decreased.
This means a previously obvious phenomenon is happening:
BTC is gradually moving from a purely high-risk speculative asset toward a "digital hard asset."
Of course, this does not mean BTC has become gold.
The real difference still exists:
Gold is defensive, BTC is offensive.
So when the macro environment improves and liquidity expectations warm up, BTC usually outperforms gold.
This is also an important reason why the BTC/gold ratio has risen rapidly recently.
But the question is: can the strength continue?
Here, caution is needed.
Because BTC has now returned to the key resistance area near $82,000.
Reuters technical analysis believes BTC recently broke through several important moving averages, but around $82,793 remains a significant resistance; if effectively broken, the upside space may open further, but if it falls back below $75,674 and $71,781, caution is needed for renewed weakness.
So what really deserves attention next is not how much the BTC/gold ratio rose today.
But rather:
Can BTC continue to outperform gold and break through previous high resistance?
If:
BTC rises + gold remains strong + BTC/gold ratio continues to climb
It indicates the market is spreading from "defensive hard assets" to "offensive hard assets."
This environment is very favorable for BTC.
But if:
Gold continues to rise while BTC rallies then falls back
Then the BTC/gold ratio may reverse.
This means the market still leans more toward risk aversion rather than fully embracing risk.
There is also a more realistic variable:
The Federal Reserve.
Today’s strong August nonfarm payrolls have pushed up September rate hike expectations again, putting noticeable pressure on gold; the market will next focus on August CPI.
So whether BTC can continue to outperform gold essentially depends on:
Federal Reserve policy expectations + US Treasury yields + US dollar + ETF fund flows.
If the dollar and yields rise again, the BTC/gold ratio may come under pressure.
If inflation cools, rate hike expectations fall, and BTC ETF funds continue to flow in, then this round of BTC strength relative to gold has a chance to continue.
In short: the BTC/gold ratio rising to the highest since January shows BTC is regaining an offensive advantage relative to gold; but whether this "relative strength" turns into a true trend reversal depends on whether it can hold above $82,000 and whether the upcoming CPI can ease liquidity expectations. $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 【Today's thread question: Do you treat whale transfers as a signal to open a position, or only as a supplementary reference?】
Most of my views align with those of @趴趴松.
However, I remain cautious about the publicly available information. Its disclosure itself is a signal (with a high probability that the asset will experience volatility next). After all, you can't be sure if the whale is coordinating with market makers to pump and dump, or if it's just large capital entering, or even if it's a small trick by the project team using new wallets. Therefore, don't treat whale transfers as a signal to open a position; you can consider it as a signal for potential volatility but assign it a lower weight.
Additionally, I believe the information that can be used as reliable supplementary reference includes those with certainty, such as extreme divergence between open interest (OI) and funding rates, net flows of spot ETFs, deposit and withdrawal anomalies of market makers (MM) and institutional addresses, specific liquidity island effects, voting results, official data, community sentiment, and announcements that cannot be tampered with by any individual.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 September 4th Deep Analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. Stock Market Trends
Risk Warning: Virtual currency trading is considered illegal financial activity in our country and is not protected by law. Leveraged trading is highly prone to liquidation, and price volatility risks are significant. The following is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Please refrain from participating in related trading. Overseas stocks also carry high market risks, and all decisions should be made at your own risk.
On September 4th, global risk assets were generally driven by macroeconomic expectations. Federal Reserve officials' speeches reshaped market interest rate expectations, causing U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index to fluctuate simultaneously. The U.S. stock market, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH) showed both correlation and partial divergence. Market focus was highly concentrated on the upcoming U.S. CPI data release and the September Federal Reserve meeting. The rate hike expectation oscillated between "rate hike" and "maintaining current rates," becoming the core theme influencing overall market pricing. The crypto market experienced a clear rebound stimulated by dovish signals, with Bitcoin regaining the $80,000 threshold and Ethereum rising in tandem. The U.S. stock market showed a pattern of rising followed by a slight pullback, with notable divergence within the tech sector. Major indices closed with small bearish candles, and profit-taking occurred at high levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed a volatile upward trend today, reaching an intraday high near $81,300, briefly reclaiming the key psychological $80,000 level, with a significant 24-hour gain and a phase of renewed bullish sentiment. The direct catalyst for this rebound was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's public statement that if inflation data continues to improve, he supports maintaining rates in September. The market quickly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened, reducing the holding cost of high-risk assets and driving capital back into the crypto market. From the capital flow perspective, spot ETF funds ended a continuous small outflow and saw a slight net inflow, while the derivatives market experienced a large number of short liquidations. Short covering further amplified the upward momentum, releasing concentrated short-term buying power. However, internal risks remain prominent. Historically, September is a relatively weak month for Bitcoin, with multiple pullbacks over the years, known as the "September curse," reflecting objective seasonal selling pressure. Technically, a large amount of previously trapped positions accumulated in the $81,000–$82,000 range creates heavy resistance. Without sustained large incremental capital inflows, a direct one-time breakthrough is difficult. If subsequent CPI data exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations heat up again, the market could quickly correct. Bitcoin is now highly tied to U.S. macro data and no longer an independent market. News can easily break technical support, and without price limits, daily fluctuations of several thousand dollars are normal.
Ethereum (ETH) followed Bitcoin's rebound today, rising above $2,500 intraday, but its overall gain was weaker than Bitcoin, showing clear strength divergence between the two coins. Fundamentally, there have been no major positive catalysts recently for the Ethereum ecosystem; the price movement is more of a passive recovery driven by the broader market. In terms of capital, Ethereum spot ETF inflows are much smaller than Bitcoin's, reflecting relatively weaker institutional allocation willingness, which is a key reason for its long-term underperformance against Bitcoin. On-chain data shows network gas fees remain low, and activity in DeFi and NFT sectors is still subdued, with no incremental enthusiasm in the native ecosystem. The price rise relies more on improved macro liquidity and contract short liquidations, lacking intrinsic driving force. Technically, strong resistance exists between $2,600 and $2,650. To break through effectively, Bitcoin must maintain strength, and overall market risk appetite must further increase. Ethereum derivatives also have high leveraged positions, with volatility often exceeding Bitcoin's, leading to intense chip exchanges during rebounds, which is positive.$BTC 82,000 is not the top, but the first attempt to break 82,500 didn't hold. Only after a pullback near 80,000 is confirmed, will the real main upward wave begin.
Technical analysis broken down into three layers. First layer, resistance. 82,500 is the neckline of the double top from May, where a large amount of trapped positions exist. When it first surged up, those trapped positions will be released and sell off, #AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC September 4th Analysis of SanDisk, Nvidia, Rocket Sector, and AI Track Trends
Risk Warning: The following content is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Overseas stock volatility risks are relatively high, and the market faces multiple uncertainties including policy, macroeconomic factors, and performance. Investment decisions should be made independently, and risks are borne by the investor.
On September 4th, the US stock market showed an overall pattern of index divergence and structural strengthening in technology sub-sectors. The Nasdaq was relatively strong, the Dow Jones slightly weaker. Nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations, disrupting the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields fluctuated, limiting the overall upward space of the market. However, AI computing power, storage chips, and commercial aerospace sectors showed independent rallies with clear internal divergence. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.01% for the day, making the semiconductor industry chain the strongest main theme in today's market. SanDisk and Nvidia, as core chain targets, followed the sector's rise. The AI full industry chain sentiment warmed up, while the rocket aerospace sector maintained range-bound oscillation with high elasticity but significant capital divergence.
SanDisk surged sharply intraday today, closing with gains exceeding 6%, significantly outperforming the overall market and the semiconductor sector average, becoming one of the leading stocks in the storage sector. Fundamentally, AI data centers continue to release demand for enterprise-level SSDs and large-capacity NAND flash memory. Cloud providers continue to increase capital expenditure, with major manufacturers prioritizing capacity for AI server orders. The spot market supply is tight, and storage contract prices remain on the rise. Although consumer storage demand is weak, AI-driven enterprise demand offsets consumer weakness, supporting enterprise flash product prices. On the market, SanDisk rose with the storage sector collectively, with Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate also rising sharply, forming a sector resonance rally. However, it should be noted that the price increase slope for storage has slowed, with Q3 price increases significantly narrower than Q2. Consumer electronics terminal procurement is cautious, which may become a hidden concern suppressing the sector later. Technically, after a short-term rapid rise, many profit-taking positions have accumulated, with resistance above. If spot storage prices fall short of expectations, a rapid correction may easily occur.
Nvidia closed up 2.5% today, maintaining strong oscillating upward momentum throughout the day, with trading volume among the market leaders, serving as the core indicator of the AI sector. News-wise, Nvidia announced a $13 billion acquisition of the open-source AI platform Hugging Face, marking its most important acquisition in the AI software ecosystem. This fills the gap in the model developer ecosystem, connects computing hardware with the AI model community, and strengthens the software-hardware closed-loop capability, greatly boosting market confidence in Nvidia's long-term growth. The high-growth guidance in the earnings report remains the fundamental cornerstone, with market expectations for revenue growth above 70% in the next fiscal year. The data center business remains the core growth engine. However, risks are also notable: on one hand, tight supply of HBM and storage chips leads Nvidia to sign large capacity procurement agreements, increasing raw material costs and squeezing gross margin space; on the other hand, intensified industry competition from cloud providers' self-developed chips and rivals like AMD continues to erode market share. The structural risk of relying solely on AI computing power business objectively exists. Macroeconomically, the better-than-expected nonfarm data has lowered Fed rate cut expectations, pushing US Treasury yields higher. High-valuation tech stocks will continue to be disturbed by the interest rate environment, with short-term stock prices relying more on news catalysts, making it difficult to break the high-level oscillation pattern quickly.
The rocket (commercial aerospace) sector showed a range-bound oscillation today, not following the semiconductor sector's simultaneous surge, with internal strength divergence. The commercial aerospace index closed slightly higher. After the May peak, the sector has been continuously retreating, with a pullback close to 45% from the high. Valuations have been significantly digested, but the sector still belongs to a high-risk growth track with weak profit realization ability. Most companies have not yet achieved stable profitability, and stock prices heavily depend on event catalysts such as launch missions and Starlink network deployment. Leading stocks reacted to new news about Starship launch applications, but overall capital participation in the sector is far less than in the AI chip track. The long-term logic of commercial aerospace comes from satellite internet and commercial launch demand expansion, but short-term constraints include high R&D investment, launch test risks, and project delays. The sector is highly event-driven, with positive news often followed by rapid declines and large volatility. Without a comprehensive rise in overall market risk appetite, the rocket sector is unlikely to experience a sustained main upward trend, more suitable for event-driven trading with generally weak sustainability.
Overall, the AI track showed multiple points of growth today. Besides computing chips, AI software and application ends also warmed up simultaneously. The computing hardware chain benefited from AI capital expenditure, with Nvidia, storage, and optical modules collectively strengthening; AI software benefited from Nvidia's acquisition event, with developer platforms and large model application targets seeing sentiment recovery. However, internal structural divergence in the AI sector is very prominent. The computing infrastructure segment has higher certainty in prosperity, while the AI application end still faces the old problem of commercialization falling short of expectations, with many companies struggling to realize high valuations through revenue. Macroeconomics is the biggest external variable affecting the AI sector. This time, the better-than-expected nonfarm data has led the market to reprice the Fed's rate cut pace. If rate cuts are delayed and US Treasury yields remain high, it will suppress the valuation center of the high-valuation AI sector.
In summary, on September 4th, the market's main themes focused on AI computing power and storage, driven by industry fundamentalsOn the eve of the non-farm payroll data release, the crypto market has already started an upward trend. This rally mainly reflects the market's optimistic pricing of the interest rate cut path rather than the direction indicated by actual economic data. Over the past two weeks, the U.S. stock market has shown persistent weakness, with capital outflows gradually becoming apparent. BTC, by firmly holding key ranges, has become a stable anchor for overall market sentiment. Meanwhile, ETH's beta characteristics have been reactivated, showing significantly increased price elasticity, but the strength gap between the two is quietly widening 📊
BTC's position base is more solid, with a chip structure leaning towards medium- to long-term accumulation; ETH's rise relies more on short-term incremental capital, and this capital attribute makes it more prone to sharp swings when sentiment reverses. Tonight's surge is a typical case of expectations leading the way, but the real test will be the employment data released tomorrow. If the new employment numbers significantly exceed market consensus, this rally is likely to trigger a concentrated profit-taking wave, with ETH's adjustment magnitude probably greater than BTC's ⚖️
Markets often preemptively interpret data before it lands, but the true direction still needs to be verified after the dust settles. $BTC $ETH
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; please view short-term trends rationally and manage risks properly.$SNDK Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, yet SanDisk still rose 9%. What is the market trading?
Nonfarm +162,000, far exceeding expectations. Normally, this would be bearish—rate hike expectations heat up, tech stock valuations come under pressure. But SanDisk surged nearly 9% today, hitting an intraday high of 1677.
Why? Three reasons:
First, US Treasury yields did not rise. After the nonfarm data release, the market suspected political bias in the employment data, combined with Fed's Waller's previously dovish remarks, so rate hike expectations did not truly intensify. Funds flowed back into semiconductors, and Treasury yields fell instead of rising.
Second, AI storage demand is very strong. Global NAND revenue grew about 70% month-over-month; AI data centers continue to consume large amounts of flash memory, supply is tight, and prices remain firm. Analysts believe the NAND supply shortage will persist for years. SanDisk had previously pulled back over 30% from its high, and funds see this as a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Third, the storage sector collectively surged. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 2%, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all up more than 3%. This is not just SanDisk rising alone; it reflects a sector rotation from consumer tech to hard tech/AI infrastructure.
The grid strategy recovered a lot today, turning floating losses into profits, holding 1.652 coins with an average entry price of 1633, earning 100U. The liquidation price of 935 is still far away, so the grid will keep running. Have a great weekend.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 If Trump is really critically ill or has passed away as rumored on Twitter, how would Dogecoin's trend be affected?
Setting aside the truth of the rumor for now, the impact path of such an event on Dogecoin is clear and predictable. Trump's connection to the crypto market lies in two layers: policy and narrative—strategic Bitcoin reserves, regulatory easing, and family crypto projects have formed the bullish confidence over the past year. Once his personal risk materializes, expectations for policy continuity will be shaken, putting pressure first on Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Dogecoin will not be able to remain unaffected.
Dogecoin also has a unique transmission chain, which is Elon Musk. The government efficiency department named DOGE, and the White House's cooperation with Musk has long been part of this coin's narrative. After a power transition, this relationship becomes questionable, and the narrative support weakens accordingly. Historically, sell-offs triggered by political figures' health events usually last several days, with the market stabilizing after new leaders release policy signals. Vance is friendly toward crypto assets, and the regulatory framework will not shift overnight, so there is a basis for medium-term recovery.
The real issue lies with $DOGE itself. It has no cash flow or fundamentals as an anchor; its pricing is driven by community enthusiasm, celebrity actions, and payment expectations. Under the same event shock, its volatility will surpass that of mainstream coins. The conclusion is clear: in the short term, watch the depth of emotional stampede; in the medium term, watch policy continuity; in the long term, it still relies on the old logic of survival through hype. The event amplifies volatility but does not change the pricing method.🚨Nonfarm payrolls completely blew past expectations, the market is repricing!
August added 162,000 jobs, expected only 56,000, nearly three times the forecast; more importantly, July was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating that US employment is not as weak as imagined.
This is definitely not good news for BTC and ETH in the short term.
🔥Strong employment = cooling rate cut expectations = rising US Treasury yields = pressure on risk assets.
After the nonfarm release, the probability of a rate hike in September clearly increased, temporarily interrupting the dovish rebound logic brought by Waller's earlier comments due to strong employment data.
But note: **A rate hike is not yet 100% certain.** The Fed will ultimately watch upcoming CPI, core inflation, and financial conditions.
So now BTC focuses on two levels:
🛡️80,000: Holding this means bulls still have a chance to fight back; ⚠️breaking below 80,000: first look at 78,000, then around 75,000.
ETH is closely watching 2,450; losing this level will further weaken the short-term structure.
Tonight's real risk is not this big bearish candle, but if strong employment and high inflation occur simultaneously, the market will further compress easing expectations.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, wait for the market to digest the data first.
Do you think BTC can reclaim 80,000, or is this really the start of a second dip?👇
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #BTC to gold ratio rises to the highest level since January, can the strength continue?
#August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceed expectations, rate hike bets heat up The most interesting part of the current crypto market is here. On one side, the $BTC to gold ratio is strengthening again, and the market is starting to discuss whether $BTC is about to reclaim the narrative of "digital gold";
On the other side, August nonfarm payrolls poured cold water on the market—new jobs at 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with clear warming of rate hike bets in September. Strong employment + high interest rate expectations are not good news for high-volatility risk assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. (Reuters)
$BTC being strong does not mean $ETH and $SOL will necessarily follow;
An increase in the $BTC to gold ratio does not mean the entire crypto market has entered a one-sided bull market.
What really matters is whether $BTC can hold key levels after macro pressures heat up again.
If $BTC can still hold on, or even break through previous highs again, it means capital is telling the market with real money:
"So what if rates rise? I still want to buy $BTC."
But if the dollar strengthens, bond yields continue to rise, and $BTC breaks support first, with $ETH and $SOL amplifying volatility, then this rally may just be a risk appetite rebound rather than confirmation of a new bull market.
So from now on, I’m only watching three things:
$BTC to gold ratio
US bond yields
The relative strength of $ETH and $SOL against $BTC Everyone, the BTC to gold ratio has hit a new high; one BTC can now be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, the highest since January. The 90-day correlation between the two has also risen to the highest level since 2020, as concerns over debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously affecting both asset classes.
This ratio reaching this level is more about liquidity expectations fermenting rather than BTC itself replacing gold's safe-haven status. The logic behind their movements is different—gold is influenced by real interest rates and central bank allocations, while BTC is driven by liquidity improvement expectations and ETF buying. A short-term increase in correlation does not imply long-term substitution.
Market divergence is also increasing. Yi Lihua and Scaramucci are optimistic about the bull market narrative of scarce assets, while Jiang Zhuoer completely exited near 82,050. Both bulls and bears raising their hands simultaneously is not a bad thing; it shows the market is still in a game of tug-of-war without forming a one-sided consensus.
What truly determines whether BTC can continue to outperform gold is not the macro narrative but whether spot demand can absorb the sell orders around 80,000 to 82,500. If ETF and spot buying can keep up, BTC's strength relative to gold can continue. If buying dries up, this ratio will have to pull back.
Above 80,000 is a dense chip area, and every step requires real money to digest. Let's watch as it moves and talk again when the direction is clear. How far do you think the BTC-gold linkage can go? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing you smooth trading. $BTC $XAU $USELESS Nonfarm payroll data far exceeds expectations, quickly rewriting the short-term crypto market trend
At 20:30 in the evening, the US nonfarm payroll data was officially released, showing an increase of 162,000 jobs, far surpassing the market expectation of 56,000 and the previous value of only 21,000, with the data difference reaching three times. The unemployment rate of 4.1% met market expectations, but the average hourly wage annual rate of 3.1% slightly exceeded the expected 3%, indicating strength in both employment and wages.
The data directly impacted the crypto market, with BTC quickly dropping from 81,000 to 79,695, a daily decline of 2%; ETH fell from 2,530 to 2,446, expanding the decline to 2.79%. The upward gains accumulated from the previous large bullish candle were almost entirely wiped out by this set of nonfarm data.
Wash previously stated that inflation CPI data would determine whether to raise interest rates, and this strong employment report directly adds significant weight to the case for a September rate hike. The market has begun to reprice Federal Reserve policy, with short positions concentratedly released, causing a clear short-term shift in market sentiment.
Key defensive levels on the chart need close attention: BTC's 80,000 and ETH's 2,450 are lifelines that bulls must hold. If these two thresholds are effectively broken, the downside could further target 78,000 and 2,400, opening up more room for correction.
This nonfarm data has directly extinguished the market's earlier optimism. Macro risks have risen again, and market volatility will further intensify. In trading, quick reactions to data are necessary; one cannot stubbornly hold onto previous bullish views. The market changes rapidly, and timely adjustments to trading strategies following the market are essential to avoid large drawdown risks.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 During the Beijing time trading session tonight, the semiconductor sector collectively rebounded.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 3%, Seagate surged over 5%, ASML and Micron increased nearly 4%, and Intel rose nearly 3%.
This wave is mainly driven by the warming expectations of AI capital expenditure: cloud providers are still buying servers, and storage demand and prices continue to support the industry chain. Stocks that fell more earlier naturally rebound more fiercely when funds return.
Storage moves first, followed by equipment and chip design catching up.
Intraday data changes quickly; please refer to real-time market quotes.Nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, and market sentiment quickly shifted
The evening nonfarm employment data was released as expected, showing a much stronger performance than market expectations. Nonfarm employment increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 56,000, and the previous value was 21,000, with the actual figure nearly three times the expectation; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with market forecasts, and the average hourly earnings annual rate was 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3%, demonstrating strong resilience in the labor market.
Following the data release, the market quickly came under pressure, with BTC dropping rapidly from 81,000 to 79,695, a daily decline of 2%; ETH simultaneously fell from 2,530 to 2,446, a drop of 2.79%. The gains accumulated from the previous large bullish candle were almost entirely wiped out by this nonfarm data.
Wash previously stated that inflation CPI would determine the path of rate hikes, and this hot employment data further raises the stakes for a September rate hike. The market is beginning to reprice Federal Reserve policy expectations, with bearish forces taking the opportunity to release pressure, and the short-term market structure has already changed.
Currently, bulls must hold two key support levels: BTC at 80,000 and ETH at 2,450. If these two supports hold effectively, there is still room for a corrective consolidation; if they are effectively broken by bears, the downside targets are 78,000 and 2,400.
This round of strong nonfarm data has directly extinguished the previous market optimism. Macro trends change rapidly, and market reactions are very fast. Being able to read signals in time is essential to avoid most drawdown risks. Going forward, it is necessary to continue closely monitoring inflation data, as every change in Federal Reserve policy will bring intense volatility to the crypto market, so position management must be well maintained.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #HOOD closed at a new high for the year, leading on-chain revenue among public blockchains $HOOD On September 3rd, the brightest star in the US stock market was neither Nvidia nor Tesla, but the app many associate with "retail stock trading" — Robinhood (HOOD). It surged about 15% in a single day, leading the S&P 500, with its stock price reaching $123, rebounding over 20% from the mid-August low. What's more interesting is that this rally wasn't driven by retail investors' frenzy, but ignited by Wall Street itself. Three major investment banks sounded the horn within three days. On September 1st, Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to "Overweight," raising the target price from $124 straight to $150, citing that its growth engine is no longer just crypto and stock trading, but also retirement accounts, banking, credit cards, advisory services, prediction markets — so many new businesses it hardly looks like a brokerage anymore. Shortly after, Canada's Scotiabank initiated coverage with a $136 target price, bluntly stating the market has misjudged it; Piper Sandler also raised its target price to $145. The concentrated upgrades from these three banks essentially reflect the same thing: Wall Street is re-pricing Robinhood — from a "retail brokerage dependent on market whims" to a "full-stack financial platform." The real trump card: prediction markets. The core logic behind this rating upgrade is a business many have yet to fully realize — prediction markets. Simply put, it lets you bet on "future events": election results,After the US August non-farm payrolls were released tonight, BTC quickly fell back from around 82,000 and once again dropped below 79,000. But my conclusion is not that "the bull market is definitely over," rather: BTC currently increasingly seems to be in a critical confirmation phase of "whether the bull market has ended," rather than a normal upward correction. I will not define it as the start of a new bull market for now, nor will I be outright bullish just because of ETF inflows and macroeconomic positives. Today's data is indeed very important: US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of about 53,000–56,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the data was released, US Treasury yields rose, the market raised the probability of a rate hike in September, and BTC subsequently fell below $80,000. What I am most concerned about now is actually not "79,000" but: why is BTC so easily pushed down around 82,000? This question is much more important than simply looking at a single non-farm payroll candlestick. A few days ago, after Waller's dovish remarks, BTC once rapidly rose from about 77,000 to above 82,000, and on September 3, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million, the highest single-day inflow since January. In other words: there is no shortage of positive factors. But the problem is: despite such strong positives, BTC still cannot effectively break through 82,000–83,000. Positive factors are increasing, but the price's reaction to these positives is getting weaker and weaker. The "On-Chain Tax" Trap of ARB: Don't Mistake Rent for Profit
Robinhood Chain's "Catfish Effect" has revitalized the Arbitrum narrative, with on-chain data looking as good as a bull market comeback. But we must calmly break down the accounts: on-chain Gas fees primarily flow to sequencers and validators, not the ARB treasury. The DAO currently only shares a portion of the "toll fees" governance cut, constrained by a dynamic fee mechanism—far from the "money printing machine" the market portrays.
The market tends to equate "ecosystem prosperity" directly with "token appreciation," missing the crucial distribution logic in between. ARB holders are more like "shareholders" than "landlords"; profits must be filtered through protocols, governance votes, and operational interception. Without clear insight into the "fee ownership difference," it's easy to mistake someone else's revenue as your own dividends.
The real value pivot of this wave lies in whether the L2 tech stack can make money by "renting out." If Orbit can prove "chain issuance equals rent collection," Arbitrum's valuation model will shift from "stacking users" to "selling financial infrastructure." At that point, ARB's value capture will no longer depend on emotional tides but will be rooted in the on-chain economy's genuine willingness to pay for underlying order. Don't be blinded by short-term bills; focus on the long-term land lease contracts.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Tonight's session, the appetizer just started, but the table was already flipped.
Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 not only crushed expectations but also erased July's negative growth revision.
The "employment too weak, no rate hike" card is temporarily off the table for the market.
After the data release, BTC dropped from 81,300 to below 80,000, ETH plunged from 2529 to 2435 at its lowest. It's normal for ETH to fall harder; when risk appetite shrinks, it always moves faster than BTC.
But once the US stock market opened, SanDisk surprisingly surged from around 1580 to 1660, with Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate also rising together.
This isn't because the nonfarm data suddenly favored storage, but because they are following their own storyline.
SanDisk had already risen pre-market; the real spark came from their longtime partner Kioxia, calling AI storage a "once-in-a-lifetime major transformation," showcasing BiCS10 and AI high-speed SSDs. Both companies are tied to the same NAND R&D and production line, and combined with the sector's recent rebound after a sell-off, funds simply lifted the entire basket.
However, no matter how strong the appetizer is, it can't replace the main course.
Wages rose 0.3% month-over-month without overheating; next week's CPI is the real reckoning.
If inflation cools, BTC has a chance to return to 80,000, and ETH's rebound potential is even greater; if inflation stays hot and US bonds rise again, ETH will have to take the hit first.
SanDisk's story is solid, but with interest rates tightening, no matter how fast it runs, it could be pulled back.
Nonfarm payrolls are responsible for flipping the table; CPI will decide who pays the bill for this meal. As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out, BTC immediately dropped several thousand points, and ETH followed suit, causing a wave of wailing in the group chat.
I switched to $OKB and saw it hovering between 106 and 111, barely moving, acting like nothing happened. Watching the OKX order book gave me a bit of reassurance.
It's not that OKB is completely unaffected by macro factors, but its logic differs from BTC and ETH. BTC and ETH are currently traded as macro assets; when interest rate hike expectations rise, funds flee first. But very few OKB holders are here because of the non-farm data. We focus on OKX's ecosystem, fee buybacks, Launchpad, and other tangible factors. As long as the platform is profitable, the demand for OKB remains, and short-term sentiment can't shake it.
The trading volume is probably still around the same, over ten million, with no one rushing to exit or panicking. This kind of "no significant change" might seem boring to others, but to me, it's a safe haven. When the market is thrown into chaos by data, OKB's insensitivity is actually valuable.
So now I increasingly feel that having some $OKB in my portfolio is like holding a ticket to a rest area. The outside world may be stormy and turbulent, but it sits here steadily. I don't expect it to make me rich overnight, but at least it lets me sleep well at night.#Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, debt pressure intensifies
The leader has something to say
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to around 4.8%, and the 30-year yield continues to stay above 5%. Federal debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with the triple pressures of deficit, long-term debt supply, and inflation expectations weighing down simultaneously.
High yields mean rising costs for mortgages, corporate financing, and government interest payments, which will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. Bitcoin fell below 80,000 tonight, directly related to this backdrop.
However, expectations for rate hikes are cooling down; after Waller's speech, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 70% to about 50%. If subsequent employment or inflation data weaken, there is room for long-term rates to fall. As long as debt supply and inflation risks remain, high rates will continue to pressure risk assets.
I have three positions in hand. The average price is around 78,200 long positions, with a stop loss at 75,000. Profits from two short positions at 81,000 have been taken. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
If US Treasury yields do not fall back, Bitcoin will find it hard to surge all at once. Do not chase sharp rises; wait for confirmation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.The biggest current real contradiction in the crypto circle comes from the combination of the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller. One fully embraces the crypto industry at the administrative level, while the other holds the power of monetary policy and insists on a hawkish monetary stance. The struggle between the two directly determines Bitcoin's medium- to long-term trajectory.
As president, Trump has given the crypto industry a green light on the regulatory front. He promoted the CLARITY Act to clarify regulatory responsibilities, signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin strategic reserve, ensured the government would not sell or confiscate Bitcoin, pushed for stablecoin legislation, and revoked past restrictive policies against crypto. The goal is to make the U.S. the global crypto hub. Once the legislation is implemented, it will continuously improve industry institutional expectations and benefit spot ETF capital inflows, which is a long-term policy dividend for Bitcoin.
But the real pressure on the market comes from Federal Reserve Chairman Waller. Waller himself does not reject crypto assets and acknowledges that crypto has become part of U.S. finance, but his monetary policy stance is tough: prioritizing inflation suppression, insisting on balance sheet reduction, being very cautious about rate cuts, and even keeping the option of rate hikes. After his Jackson Hole speech, the market repriced the probability of a September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields rose, directly triggering this round of Bitcoin's sharp decline.
Here lies a core split: Trump is friendly to crypto policy, but Waller's high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk asset prices. The policy is favorable, but liquidity tightening offsets the policy benefits. This is also the root cause of the recent repeated volatile declines despite continuous positive news.
Do you think Waller will become the next Powell, ignoring Trump's criticisms?This non-farm payroll data combination is quite special: employment performance exceeded expectations, but wage growth has slowed down. The market is pricing in a potential soft landing for the economy, though there will be significant divergence in performance across various sectors.
The positive outlook is concentrated in high-valuation technology and AI growth sectors. Weaker wage data indicates easing inflationary pressure, raising market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. With discount rates declining and future earnings value rising, growth stocks like Nvidia, software, and cloud computing have stronger upward momentum.
Meanwhile, banks and cyclical sectors are showing weaker trends. Rising rate cut expectations will squeeze banks' net interest margins, pressuring profitability; solid employment data also means no large-scale stimulus policies, leaving resource and industrial cyclical stocks lacking upward drivers.
Currently, the market favors a moderately cooling economy—neither forced to continue rate hikes due to inflation rebounds nor rapidly sliding into recession. The focus of capital competition is not an immediate rate cut but a shortened duration of high interest rates. If inflation continues to decline, the AI technology theme will keep leading; if employment remains strong long-term, delaying rate cuts, the upside for U.S. stocks will be limited. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is not when the opponent's king's wing shows a crack, but when the referee suddenly announces: from this move onward, the parchment recording the game will be replaced by verifiable on-chain coordinates—each move recorded on the ledger, and any tampering will be betrayed by one's own handwriting during the endgame settlement.
This time, the U.S. securities regulators have revised the "transfer agent" rules, seemingly just trimming edges, but in reality rewriting the entire annotation standard of the game record. The record keepers sitting in the clearinghouse, managing shareholder registers, corporate actions, and ownership rights, are much like the old-fashioned referees who painstakingly transcribed each move in classic chess tournaments. In the past, stock issuance and transfer required manual transcription and double confirmation at every step; once the rules open the door to blockchain and electronic records, it means moving the game record from paper to a coordinate database. Moves, verification, and archiving are completed in the same dimension, blurring the boundary between player and referee.
True grandmasters never focus on whether a move is beautiful, but on how rule changes recalculate every line of the rear wing. In the paper era, proof of holdings relied on signatures, seals, and overnight courier—equivalent to waiting for the referee to rearrange the board after every move; in the chain-recording era, the true state of every pawn and bishop on a side’s position is exposed in a publicly verifiable database. The game can be interrupted, but the record will never split.
On the same day, the roundtable for 24/7 trading was also brought to the table. The old New York main board, Nasdaq, BlackRock, Robinhood, Citadel, and DTCC sat at the same long table discussing the same issue: when the game is no longer closed, will the low-light conditions at night give rise to another set of weaker strategies? Daytime is slow chess in a formal hall, while nighttime is a continuation of high-speed blitz chess; market makers’ inventories are pawns crossing the river at any time, and clearinghouses are the only opportunity for castling. Liquidity seems liberated by time, but at some 3 a.m., a cancellation storm could push the midgame directly into an unsolvable endgame.
This dual-layer transformation reflected on the on-chain mirror token $xTSLA is closer to a multi-faceted simultaneous performance. Tesla on the main board is the main game, the on-chain projection is another chessboard; the price difference between the two boards is evidence of the "game record rhythm" mismatch between the two referee systems. If the old ledger is replaced by trusted electronic records and on-chain issuance obtains a legitimate score, then the price gap on this mirror board will structurally narrow—but if the sequence is misordered, sacrificing pieces is not strategy but overconfidence.
The rules are still in consultation, meaning players have just received the draft of the new game book, and no one dares to try unverified new variations in the midgame. Institutions, no matter how prepared they claim to be, remain physically in the opening stage: first watching who will guard the king’s castle at night after the clearing window withdraws from the central pawn line.
I stare at the new edition of the game record on the board: the true master is not the one who seizes the attack under the 24-hour bright lights, but the one who, when all original signatures and seals are replaced by digital signatures, still has the ability to prove that every game record retains the original weight at the time of the move. #secmarketmodernization