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The first reaction to strong data was negative for risk assets, but what truly determines overnight profits and losses is whether the market followed the preset path. @交易员刺客 This session first dealt with rebound orders after the $BTC sharp drop, then focused mainly on SNDK short positions. The first phase relied on reducing positions and exiting to cash in on the rebound, but the second phase saw the target break off the sector and continue to rally independently, ultimately switching from "hedging waiting" to "stop-loss in batches." Viewing these two segments together is more valuable than discussing directions separately. On a macro level, Assassin interpreted that night's employment data as clearly strong. He believes that new jobs, unemployment rate, and wage data did not show the market's expected cooling, so rate hike expectations were raised again, putting BTC under pressure. This was his intraday judgment, not a definitive conclusion. The first sharp drop after data release often involves macro pricing, stop-loss triggers, and liquidity shocks. Traders shouldn't chase shorts based solely on "negative data," but should observe whether the price can sustain in key areas. For BTC, when the price returned below 79,488, he tried to go long low, separating the bottom and add positions: first using a smaller position, then adding positions near 79,288. The nominal leverage mentioned in the livestream was very high, so he repeatedly distinguished between "cross-margin mode" and "cross-margin betting." The former is just margin mode, while the latter exposes the account to single fluctuations; If viewers ignore the position ratio and only remember the leverage numbers, the risk will be much higher than the original plan. This long position then rebounded. The assassin first demanded a halving long position, then near 79,650#Semiconductor Conduction Observer: Tech stocks are rising, the crypto market is fluctuating, and funds are waiting for resonance Last night, US semiconductor stocks all turned red, with SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all rising together, and leveraged long positions in semiconductor targets rising simultaneously. Funds are flowing back into the tech growth sector, the signal is very clear The logic for memory chips is not hard to understand: inventory destocking is nearing completion, AI computing power continues to consume capacity, price expectations are rising, and funds are positioning ahead of the cycle reversal But in the crypto market, BTC is stuck at 81,000, ETH is hovering around 2,530, external tech sentiment is warming up, but internally it is fluctuating at a high level. The rhythms of the two markets are clearly out of sync There is still linkage, but where is the transmission stuck? The profit-taking in the crypto market is piled up too thickly, and short-term bullish forces are severely depleted. External sentiment can provide a floor but cannot push a new round of breakthroughs. BTC above 80,000 needs stronger catalysts to push higher What has always suppressed risk assets has not changed Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain, oil prices are running high, inflation concerns are pressing down, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace is constrained. As long as these variables do not materialize, risk assets have a ceiling. Three operational reminders 1. Do not blindly chase semiconductor mapped targets; handle the crypto market with a fluctuation mindset 2. Tech stocks lead, crypto lags, there is sometimes a time lag in between, do not chase highs and sell lows during the lag 3. The mainline signals have not yet appeared—before the three indicators of ETF inflows, on-chain activity, and rate cut expectations resonate, leave room in your positions It is a fact that semiconductors are rising, and it is also a fact that the crypto market is fluctuating #BTC #ETH #Semiconductor #Nonfarm Night Observer: The data hasn't come out yet, but the script is already written Yesterday at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls arrived again. BTC and ETH hang like a knife over our heads; a spike is a high-probability event. The market expects an increase of 56,000 jobs, previous value -23,000, unemployment rate 4.1%. Last week's ADP was only 38,000, below expectations, signs of cooling in the labor market are already evident. Tonight, the key is not whether the data is "right or wrong," but which side it leans toward: · Below 30,000, unemployment rate jumps: rate hike expectations continue to fall, BTC and ETH lean bullish, but don't chase the first candle; wait for volume confirmation · 50,000-70,000, meets expectations: expect a spike then choose direction, a trash market during trash time, don't make rash moves · Above 100,000, wages rise: US Treasury yields and the dollar rebound, risk assets face short-term pressure, bears will take the opportunity to push prices down Personally, I'm slightly bullish but keeping my position very light. The reason is simple: the Fed is currently focused on CPI; weak nonfarm payrolls don't mean immediate easing, next week's CPI is the real directional switch. Two reminders: 1. The first candle after data release is often swept by algorithms, don't chase it 2. Unemployment rate and revisions to previous data are more critical than the number of new jobs; these are the details the Fed truly watches It's a macro data night; surviving is more important than guessing right. Calculate your overnight fees carefully for leveraged positions; don't treat nonfarm payrolls as a double-or-nothing button. #BTC #ETH #NonfarmData #CryptoMarket#日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 The yen is acting strange this time. When the yen appreciates, the dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury yields push higher, and risk assets come under pressure. But the bigger problem is that the short positions on the yen are extremely crowded. The whole world is borrowing yen to buy high-yield assets, and cryptocurrencies are one of the important destinations. The impact on the crypto space can be analyzed on two levels. In the short term, a stronger yen itself does not directly suppress Bitcoin prices, but it transmits pressure by withdrawing global liquidity. If the USD/JPY really falls below 155 and triggers a chain of liquidations. The non-farm payroll data has already caused a drop, and if the yen delivers another blow, market pressure will increase further. In the long term, the Bank of Japan raising interest rates means the global "cheap money" tap is being tightened. Over the past decade, the yen has been the world’s largest funding currency, and now this source is shrinking. The cost of borrowing to speculate in crypto is rising, so valuations built on liquidity need to be reassessed. Just watch the 155 level. If it holds, the yen’s appreciation pause will give risk assets a breather. If it doesn’t hold, the $102.6 billion short squeeze chain reaction could cause global risk assets to be repriced. What do you think? $ETH $BTC The three great immortals of the US each have their own trading targets Trump trades T in Brent crude oil between $70-90; when it hits $70, he strikes Iran, and at $90, he tacos again. Basent watches the US Treasury yield; when the 30-year Treasury yield reaches 5.2%, he launches verbal attacks. Wash watches the September rate hike probability; when it drops to 30%, he pushes hard, and when it rises to 70%, he babbles. The three immortals each play their own game, independent yet interfering with each other #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Nonfarm payrolls in August came in at 162,000, completely shattering market expectations.📉 Why did this number silence everyone? I stared at the screen for a long time; my first reaction wasn’t about how much I lost, but that familiar dull ache returned. Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, expected 65,000, more than double the forecast. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Previously, the market still clung to the fantasy of "weaker employment, lighter rate hikes," but now that script has been torn to shreds. The probability of a rate cut jumped from 33% directly to 67%, U.S. Treasury yields surged across the board, and BTC immediately took a hit. This isn’t just a simple negative data point; it breaks the pricing logic. Previously, everyone was trading on the chain "inflation easing → policy easing → liquidity recovery," and the most fragile link in this chain was employment. Now that employment data is so strong, it tells the market: the economy is still hot, and there’s no need for policy to rush to pivot. So all positions betting on easing are being passively adjusted, and BTC, as the asset most sensitive to liquidity, naturally takes the brunt first. But what really hurts isn’t the drop itself. It’s that feeling every morning waking up thinking "this should be the bottom," only to see it grind down a bit more the next day. A sharp drop at least cuts cleanly, but this slow bleed is like sandpaper slowly grinding your nerves. The red in the account grows day by day, but you can’t quite tell whether to exit or hold. I haven’t cut losses. It’s not stubborn holding, but feeling that we’ve come this far and want to see a few more steps ahead. The logic line for AXTI hasn’t broken yet, and the liquidation price for USELESS short at 0.299 hasn’t been hit either. If one day reallyNon-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, reigniting market bets on a September rate hike, with the probability now around 60%. But there's a detail that can't be overlooked: the rate hike is not yet set in stone. Waller has made it clear that what will truly determine his voting stance in September is the upcoming August inflation data. However, from the market perspective, funds have clearly started to hedge in advance. Both $BTC and $ETH weakened, with BTC briefly falling below 80,000. The US stock market hasn't opened yet, and I'm actually a bit curious now: Was yesterday's tech sector rally a case of funds rushing ahead, or simply setting the stage for profit-taking today? If risk assets continue to face pressure after the US market opens, yesterday's gains are likely to be repriced. As for $SNDK, its performance yesterday wasn't strong. If risk appetite continues to decline tonight, could this highly volatile asset become a priority for funds to reduce holdings? Of course, I can't say it will definitely crash. I'm just a poor person still waiting to break even 🥺 But in this market now, I prefer to believe: News can be speculated on in advance, sentiment can be traded ahead, but the ultimate direction is still decided by data. The inflation data on September 11 might be the real test. #BTC #ETH #SNDK #FederalReserve #NonFarmNow preparing for a second round, this time not chasing short-term trades, but aiming for a medium-term logic. $ZEC After breaking through $1000, the highest reached around 1029, directly hitting a nearly ten-year high. Now the price is around 1188, already approaching the key resistance zone of 1200–1300. Technicals are starting to heat up a bit. The daily RSI has surged to around 78, clearly above the overbought line of 70, and the divergence between price and moving average is widening. The stronger the rise, the stronger the demand for pullbacks. Behind this surge is mainly capital stimulus after ETF listings, combined with concentrated short selling pressure, further amplifying the pace of the rise. But the problem is also obvious: once incremental buying starts to weaken, the funds chased earlier may become cash-out. Looking at fundamentals, uncertainties remain regarding Zcash development team, privacy pool security, and regulation, and the future institutional space for privacy assets faces certain pressure. The liquidity situation is also not very promising. Currently, selling pressure is clearly higher than buying pressure, funding rates are negative, and there is a divergence between spot trading and contract positions. So my idea is simple: look for shorting opportunities near 1188. Set stop-loss above 1250, with the first target looking at the 1029–1000 range. If 1000 falls, then look at 900–920. The position won't be too heavy, controlled between 10% and 15%, with leverage up to 3x. Of course, plan is plan; if the market really goes against us, you still have to admit defeat. Wrong direction isn't scary; holding out is what really matters. FirstWhy do I choose to gradually accumulate $ONDO? Personal view: In the next cycle, ONDO will be a high-quality RWA target, suitable for accumulating in batches on dips. The core focus comes from regulatory trends: Ondo has submitted comments to the SEC and CFTC, advocating relying on existing U.S. securities laws without new legislation, incorporating U.S. stock perpetual futures into the domestic regulatory framework. Overseas products have already been validated, with $8 billion in trading volume within six weeks of launch, $2.6 billion in RWA assets under management, ranking fourth in the sector. Tokenized assets combined with synthetic derivatives are advancing compliance. Currently, the market has not fully entered a bull phase, so it is possible to accumulate on dips and wait for the cycle to fulfill the narrative. However, it is important to distinguish between surface phenomena and fundamental support points. Submitting comment letters ≠ regulatory approval; trading volume and AUM are surface-level results. The three key things to watch are: whether regulators accept the proposal, whether custody fully maps assets, and real user adoption. Once the fundamental support points are disproven, even the most impressive data will become invalid. I am optimistic about the long-term outlook but reserve room for correction. This is a personal insight and does not constitute investment advice.The NFP report may have shaken the market, but I think the bigger story starts next week. Jobs came in stronger than expected at 162K, with unemployment at 4.1%. That’s enough to bring September rate-hike expectations back into focus and keep pressure on $BTC and $ETH. But one jobs report doesn’t decide the entire trend. Next week brings PPI, CPI, and eventually the FOMC. That combination could determine whether today’s weakness continues or gets completely reversed. If inflation stays elevated and Treasury yields move higher, I’ll be watching $78.6K on BTC and $2,428–$2,400 on ETH. Those levels matter because a clean breakdown would confirm that sellers are gaining real control. But if CPI comes in softer and markets start pricing in renewed rate-cut expectations, today’s reaction could quickly become just another temporary shakeout. So I’m not blindly bearish. My expectation is weakness and volatility early next week, followed by a clearer directional move after CPI. Until BTC loses $78.6K and ETH loses $2.4K, I’m treating this as a correction rather than a confirmed bear trend. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Data Analysis The BTC/gold ratio has risen above 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year. One BTC can be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. BTC is trading at 81,000, with gold also maintaining a high level. Both are strengthening together, but BTC's elasticity clearly outperforms gold. Market Consensus Bullish investors believe the rising ratio indicates that capital prefers crypto assets, and the hard asset narrative of $BTC is gaining institutional recognition; cautious voices remind that this is only a relative strength indicator, and the ratio often experiences pullbacks after surging, so it cannot be taken as a direct signal of a one-sided rise. Underlying Logic A rising ratio means that under equal conditions, capital is more willing to bet on BTC. However, this indicator is directly influenced by US Treasury yields and interest rate hike expectations. Once the macro environment reverses, BTC's volatility will far exceed gold's, and the ratio will quickly fall back. Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) The relative strength looks promising, but don't rely solely on this indicator to chase longs. Focus on subsequent inflation data and manage your positions carefully. [Pharaoh's Market Watch] My DMs exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh about Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, and 21 other traditional financial giants teaming up to officially announce the joint issuance of a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027. Pharaoh took a look at this lineup—it's even more organized than Pharaoh's pyramid construction crew. Together, they manage assets exceeding $65 trillion and are aiming to grab a slice of the stablecoin pie. The lineup is indeed impressive, but full of question marks. The alliance statement said nothing—no company name, no CEO appointed, no blockchain specified, and unclear where reserves will be held. Looking back at past lessons, Société Générale previously entered the market with much fanfare, but after nearly a year, its circulating volume was only $12.6 million. Tether's USDT alone has reached $183.3 billion, and Circle's USDC stands at $73.8 billion. Wall Street's compliance credentials may not be effective against the liquidity moat of crypto natives. No direct short-term impact on Bitcoin, but in the long run, it adds bricks to the blockchain. More compliant dollars on-chain will thicken the underlying liquidity of the entire crypto ecosystem. However, with these 21 banks only launching in 2027, there is plenty of time for USDT and USDC to keep running. Pharaoh's one sentence: Wall Street's regular army has finally entered the field, but they are still a long, long way from "taking over." Good deals come to those who wait; don't rush to get hyped. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Brothers, putting all the current news together, my judgment for September is quite clear: we can't say the bear market has arrived yet, but the short term has already entered a phase of high volatility and a bearish adjustment. Strong non-farm payrolls + Fed hawkish bias + rising US Treasury yields + inflation pressure from oil prices are all suppressing risk assets, so in September I tend to expect a weak consolidation first, then choose direction based on inflation data. Focus closely on PPI, CPI, and FOMC. If inflation remains high and rate hike expectations heat up, watch $BTC at 78,600 and $ETH at 2400; if CPI cools down and rate cut expectations return, the market may quickly recover. As long as BTC holds 78,600 and ETH holds 2400, I still define this as a deep correction within a bull market, not the start of a bear market. But if key supports are broken consecutively + ETFs continue outflows + US stocks keep weakening, then we really need to be alert for a trend reversal. In short: September is not about blindly bullish nor directly declaring a bear market; the real direction depends on inflation and the Fed. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Today’s NFP data gave the bears some ammunition, but I wouldn’t front-run the next move yet. 162K jobs came in above expectations, unemployment held at 4.1%, and September rate-hike expectations strengthened again. Naturally, that creates short-term pressure for $BTC and $ETH. But the market still has several major catalysts ahead. PPI. CPI. FOMC. These events will tell us much more about whether inflation is actually becoming a problem again or whether today’s reaction is simply temporary positioning. The levels I’m watching are straightforward: $BTC → $78.6K $ETH → $2,428 and $2,400 As long as those areas hold, I don’t see enough confirmation to aggressively call for a deeper bearish trend. A strong CPI print combined with rising Treasury yields could change that quickly. But if inflation cools and rate-cut expectations return, buyers could recover today’s losses faster than many expect. For now, my bias is cautious: Weak and volatile early week. Direction becomes clearer around CPI. No need to predict the move before the market gives confirmation.From 200U to 2 million, the myth boils down to two words: execution Someone really did turn 200U into 2 million in reality. It sounds exaggerated, but such cases do exist in the crypto market. It’s not based on insider info, nor is it an all-in gamble. The core is three words: ride the trend. Dare to hold positions when the market starts, dare to add positions after floating profits, and decisively exit if the direction is wrong. I’ve seen people start with a few thousand U, not chasing hot topics or following group tips, just sticking to their own trend logic. They reduce positions on pullbacks, add on breakouts, and keep rolling profits. This seemingly clumsy method turned accounts into millions in just a few months. The hardest part is never the trading method, but the execution. Many people rush to take profits after 10%, only to see the market continue rising; they get scared on pullbacks, then chase highs after confirming a big surge. Going back and forth, they see the market but can’t take the profits. There’s also a type who trades frequently during volatility to endure losses, but when a big move comes, they don’t dare to enter. They can’t hold when they should, can’t cut losses when they should, and can’t control their hands when they should be empty. Opportunities are right in front of them, but it’s like they have nothing to do with themselves. Don’t always ask how to flip accounts; first ask yourself three questions: after profits, do you dare to add positions on floating gains? Can you decisively cut losses? Can you stay calm when the market is FOMO-crazed? Rolling positions is not a myth. Understand the trend, manage your position size, hold profits, admit mistakes and cut losses. Those who can grow small funds into big ones aren’t the most daring gamblers, but the ones who can best restrain themselves. $BNB Brothers, today’s NFP reaction may have created more questions than answers. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K, above expectations, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The stronger jobs data has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher again, keeping pressure on risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. But I wouldn’t immediately conclude that next week must be bearish. The bigger test is still ahead. PPI and CPI will give the market a clearer picture of where inflation is heading, followed by the FOMC decision and Powell’s guidance. If inflation remains sticky while Treasury yields continue rising, BTC could retest the $78.6K area, while ETH may revisit $2,428 and potentially $2,400. On the other hand, a meaningful CPI cooldown could quickly bring rate-cut expectations back into the conversation and help repair today’s downside reaction. My current view: The first half of next week could remain weak and volatile. Then CPI may become the catalyst that determines the next major direction. For me, $78.6K on BTC and $2,400 on ETH are the key defenses. If both levels break decisively, the bearish structure becomes much stronger. Until then, I’m not rushing to label the market a bear market. Patience > prediction.The long-term narrative imagination space for $ONDO is indeed very large. The market has a grand backdrop: in the next 7-10 years, the older generation is expected to transfer assets worth 85 trillion to digitally native young investors. This group is accustomed to digital financial products and naturally has a higher acceptance of on-chain assets. Industry estimates suggest that the growth rate of the tokenization sector could be 2-3 times faster than the development of ETFs back then. And $ONDO is already a leading player in the RWA sector, running both government bonds and tokenized stocks simultaneously, with a multi-chain layout and TVL continuously breaking through key thresholds. This is also the fundamental logic behind my long-term bullish stance on ONDO. I won’t set my expectations too high; even if it doesn’t reach 10x, it will still be a position worth holding. A beautifully told story does not mean the fulcrum has been firmly established. The real foundational factors that determine whether ONDO can fulfill its narrative boil down to three hard issues: 1. Compliance risk 2. Custody with sufficient backing 3. Genuine adoption: whether the new generation of capital is truly allocating on-chain real-world assets, or if the TVL is just short-term stacking by speculative funds within the crypto circle. The 85 trillion generational wealth is a potential long-term increment; it does not mean this money will definitely flow into on-chain RWA, as there are many barriers in between such as regulation, custody, and user habits. Growth forecasts are just scenario simulations, not certainties. I am optimistic about its long-term prospects, but do not treat the long-term story as a direct verdict for buying now. Even if the direction is bullish, keep watching whether the foundational factors get disproven.#长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 ：30-year US Treasury yield returns to 5.28%! $40 trillion debt burden, will global "borrowers" be unable to pay interest? There is a number that should keep all investors awake at night — the US federal debt has officially surpassed $40 trillion. Annual interest payments alone reach $1.4 trillion, accounting for nearly 18% of federal government revenue. Even more frightening, the 30-year US Treasury yield has again broken through 5.28%, returning to the level before Bessent announced intervention. The 10-year yield once surged near 4.8% — borrowing $40 trillion, and interest keeps rising. This is not just debt; it is the Damocles sword hanging over global assets. What is the market afraid of? Afraid that the government cannot repay the money and can only print money to dilute it. And printing money = inflation = appreciation of hard assets. This is why BTC and gold are rising simultaneously. Bessent’s words at the G20 are worth pondering: "The world is drowning in debt... Our only way out of this predicament is growth." The global debt market is collapsing, while hard assets are celebrating wildly. Who will foot the bill for the next act of this macro drama?September 5 Morning Express｜📝 US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, expected only 56,000, and the previous value was revised upward. June and July combined were also revised up by 55,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. The labor market is tougher than the market expected. Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September rose back to around 60%. The easing brought by Waller's Thursday comment "if inflation continues to slow, inclined to hold steady" was basically reversed. US stocks (Friday close)
Dow -0.51%, at 53,414
S&P -0.38%, at 7,718
Nasdaq -0.29%, at 26,507 Just rose over 1% on Thursday, then gave back part of it on Friday. Tech stocks didn't crash, but no one dared to chase. The market is now focusing on next week's CPI, which is the real anchor for the September rate decision. Gold, silver, oil: Gold briefly broke below 4400, spot fell from near 4500 on Thursday to below 4400.
Silver followed down.
Oil prices remain near highs, with news from the Middle East about Iran attacking US bases in the UAE and Kuwait still ongoing, but the nonfarm data overshadowed the geopolitical premium. Crypto: BTC surged to near 82,000 on Thursday, hitting a new high since mid-May, then fell back to around 79,400–79,700 after the nonfarm on Friday, spot roughly at 79,600.
ETH followed down, back around 2,450. Crypto-related US stocks were strong on Thursday (MSTR, COIN, CRCL all double digits), then cooled down with the indexes on Friday. Simply put: Thursday traded on "rate hikes may not be so urgent," Friday traded on "employment is still not soft."Brothers, after today's nonfarm payrolls news came out, I think next week is actually more critical. The nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 clearly exceeded expectations, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and the September rate hike expectations have heated up again, which still suppresses $BTC and $ETH in the short term. But we can't directly say that next week will definitely fall; the real big test is next week's PPI, CPI, and then the FOMC. If inflation continues to stay high and US Treasury yields rise, BTC will most likely retest 78,600, and ETH will look at 2428 or even 2400. Conversely, if CPI cools down significantly and the market re-trades rate cut expectations, today's nonfarm negative impact might be quickly repaired. So my personal judgment: the first half of next week will be weak and volatile, and the second half will wait for CPI to choose the direction. If BTC falls below 78,600 and ETH falls below 2400, the bearish trend will truly strengthen; before breaking these levels, don't be in a hurry to directly see the market as a bear market. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Bessent drops a bomb: If Iran ceases fire, oil prices will head straight to $40, and US Treasury yields will collapse? US Treasury Secretary Bessent just threw a bombshell in an interview: Conflict ends → severe oil market oversupply → WTI targets $50, even $40; Oil prices and 10Y US Treasury yields have the "highest correlation ever," so if oil falls, yields will retreat. Current prices? Brent 95+, WTI about 91. In other words, he’s predicting a halving drop. What does this chain mean for crypto? • Oil falls → inflation expectations cool → Fed has no reason to maintain high rates • If 10Y yields drop from 4.7% to 4.2%, risk asset valuations reopen • BTC historically benefits from "real interest rate declines" 🍜 But don’t get carried away, three pitfalls: 1. No ceasefire timeline given, “post-conflict” = wishful thinking; 2. Norway’s SWF still plans to cut $75 billion in US Treasury holdings, so bonds may not fall; 3. If it really drops to 40, that means demand collapsed — not bullish, but a recession signal. My take: short-term speculation on "expectations" is fine, but if it breaks 40, better run. $CL $BZ Federal Reserve Governor Waller is turning dovish, and his reason is that inflation has cooled down. But anyone can see that the current inflation data is still far from 2%, and with the US-Iran war dragging on, oil prices are soaring higher and higher. So, his reason simply doesn't hold up. However, for the market, whether the reason makes sense or not is not important; what matters is whether there is a reason that Wall Street can use for speculation. So now, it’s meaningless to debate whether Waller is truly dovish or just pretending. We only need to know that Wall Street wants the market to believe he is genuinely dovish. As for whether the CPI data released on September 11 will affect the Fed’s decision, the possibility is not high. After all, if they really cared, they wouldn’t have stayed dovish for so long. By then, they might find other excuses to shirk responsibility. If the CPI data is really bad, Trump might also choose to appease Iran, like the memorandum of understanding reached in June, temporarily raising expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices down, which could also give the Fed a reason not to raise interest rates. Therefore, I believe the probability of a rate hike in September is low. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September??? Based on past data, the Federal Reserve tends to cooperate with the government near midterm elections or presidential elections. This is not complicated because it directly affects election outcomes, which politicians absolutely cannot tolerate. A few days ago, Trump already said he wants Powell to "do the right thing," which means absolutely no rate hikes before the midterm elections. And if the Fed really raises rates in September or October, anyone can guess that Trump will definitely retaliate fiercely. Although the Federal Reserve is independent from the U.S. government, political factors influencing monetary policy are indeed an undeniable factor, especially now that the Trump administration has shown strong interference in Fed decisions, making political factors even more significant. No matter how Trump retaliates, it is definitely not good for the Fed. So theoretically, as long as these Fed governors are not out of their minds, they will accept the outcome of no rate hikes before the midterms. As for what reason they use to pivot dovish, that depends on individual performance. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceed expectations! Gold plummets $70, BTC plunges straight down from 81,600, and rate hike odds soar Brothers, last night's nonfarm data completely stunned the market. Expected 56,000, actual hit 162,000 — a three-month high! July was also revised up by 44,000 (from -23,000 to +21,000), data has contradicted expectations for two consecutive months. The job market is far from cooling down. Once the data came out, the market instantly turned. Gold plunged $70, silver dropped $1.5, the dollar index surged 34 points, and CME's bets on a September rate hike skyrocketed, wiping out the optimistic sentiment from the morning session. BTC plunged from 81,600, ETH fell below 2,450, and many long positions were liquidated. My judgment: this data has pushed Waller's "data dependency" to the edge of a cliff. Waller just said on Thursday "CPI decides everything," now the nonfarm data exploded first. Next, the CPI on September 11 will decide everything — if CPI again exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is almost certain. RSI has already dropped to 12.5, sentiment is extremely oversold, there may be a short-term technical rebound, but the big trend has been reversed by tonight's data. Before the CPI release, any rebound could be a bull trap. Don't forget, June and July data were both significantly revised upward; the job market is much stronger than imagined $BTC $ZEC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ONDO The next major narrative in the crypto market may not be something entirely new; it is very likely to come from traditional assets that already exist. The interesting part about RWA is this: it acts as a bridge, connecting blockchain with real-world finance. U.S. Treasury bonds, mutual funds, credit—various real-world assets can all be mapped on-chain for tokenized representation. $LINK, ONDO, $ETH—these three are unavoidable research subjects around this narrative. But there is a common thinking trap here. Most people, at first glance, look at hype, coin price increases, and TVL surges. But the real core question is not how hot the hype is, but how far actual adoption has progressed. On-chain TVL surges, multi-chain deployments, and media frenzy are derivative phenomena; capital enthusiasm can be built up in the short term. The true foundational pillars are three things: a legal framework for offline asset custody, genuine institutional adoption, and reliable operation of cross-chain oracles. If these pillars don’t hold, no matter how good the surface data looks, its reference value will be greatly diminished. Concept validation is one thing; large-scale implementation is another. Stories can be told extravagantly, but in the end, the answer must come from real institutional users and real capital adoption. Hype is just the entry ticket; adoption is the final verdict. And even if the concept contract is implemented, it only proves the company is viable; to make the price rise quickly, a dividend mechanism similar to hype still needs to be established.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 $ETH is not staying. Originally, I thought that if tonight's non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, it might further lower the expectations for a September rate hike and give the market a boost. But now the market consensus is too uniform — bad data, pump, then dump; this script is actually easier to play out. More importantly, the U.S. House of Representatives has canceled its two-week session in September. This is very critical for the crypto community, meaning the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is extremely low. The House won't meet again until after the midterm elections in November, by which time the current president will likely be a lame duck, with significantly reduced room for governance. So I do not agree with the saying "the bull market is here." At least so far, I haven't seen any substantial signals of a bull market. There are two key upcoming dates to watch: · September 17: Federal Reserve meeting · September 18: Bank of Japan meeting A rate hike by Japan is basically a given; the question is whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. For highly liquid assets like cryptocurrencies, the retreat of cheap money will have a very obvious draining effect. Overall, after mid-September, the market is very likely to experience a significant downturn. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Normal logic: as the coin price continues to rise, the funding rate will also rise accordingly. However, the market often shows divergence: the price rises, but the funding rate does not continue to increase. $ZEC: Price surges, OI rises sharply, but the funding rate fluctuates wildly and does not steadily increase, indicating that the rise is more due to long and short positions opening against each other rather than a unilateral large-scale long entry. $ENA: Price pulses upward, funding rate alternates between positive and negative, with huge long-short disagreements, no consensus bullish sentiment formed. $SOL: Coin price rises, funding rate moderately and positively increases, creating resonance between price and rate, indicating healthier conditions. $DOGE: Funding rate remains low, with no obvious capital game. Price rise + OI rise, but funding rate does not cooperate, indicating the market is contract competition rather than a genuine bullish trend. Such rises tend to be weak in sustainability, so beware of a surge followed by a pullback. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 DASH benefits from privacy rotation, FIL and other supply inflection points, OKB and SUI look to see if the ecosystem can deliver $OKB The most worth watching now is still X Layer. The supply is fixed at 21 million tokens, and recently RWAperp brought 19 perpetual markets including stocks, indices, and commodities. The next phase that will truly determine OKB's valuation is whether these applications can continuously generate trading volume and on-chain users. $DASH suddenly became the market focus today, with gains approaching 20%, clearly benefiting from the privacy coin rotation after ZEC's surge. Coupled with the Dash Platform upgrade, the market has started to reconsider its potential to expand from a payment coin to an application platform. Going forward, real network usage is needed to sustain the sentiment. $SUI's current problem is actually ecosystem confidence. Recently, Full Sail shut down due to a vulnerability incident, and Phantom plans to stop Sui support on September 24. These do not indicate a failure of Sui's technical roadmap but will affect user entry points and application experience. More important than price rebound later is whether new wallets, applications, and capital can fill this gap. $FIL The real focus today is not the pullback but the possible significant change in supply structure after mid-October: after the current vesting plan ends, new issuance is expected to decrease by about 75%. If combined with growth in paid storage demand, FIL has a chance to return from the old storage narrative back to supply-demand logic. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 $ONDO Stocks, TVL has just crossed the $1 billion mark. The RWA tokenized stock sector can no longer be regarded as a small experiment. Looking at the data, the upward curve is indeed impressive. It surged to $100 million in the first week, reached $500 million in five months, and broke through $1 billion TVL in less than nine months. Currently, it is deployed simultaneously on Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain, with the growth rate continuing to accelerate. Many still treat tokenized stocks as a conceptual demo, but the reality is clear: it has moved beyond the experimental phase and become a real, functioning market. TVL, multi-chain expansion, and a surge in holders are secondary evidence; they look impressive but can be driven by short-term capital inflows. What really needs to be verified is the underlying support: 1. The underlying custody mechanism: can on-chain tokens correspond one-to-one with real offline US stock assets in full? 2. Regulatory compliance framework: this is the biggest vulnerability for RWA. If compliance fails, all the TVL instantly becomes invalid. 3. Real user demand: is it genuine asset allocation or just speculative capital cycling within the crypto circle? The current data looks good, and the narrative is strong. Growth data is a result, not a cause. The sector moving from experiment to reality is a fact, but that doesn’t mean the logic is fully proven. Breaking $1 billion TVL is just an entry ticket; what needs continuous monitoring is not how fast the numbers grow. $ARB $UNI $CORE CORE keeps plummeting! Hard fork + burning 150 million tokens, the market completely unconvinced Core DAO urgently performed a hard fork to fix vulnerabilities and burned 150 million CORE tokens, but the price still fell, dropping nearly 20% over seven days, currently at $1.21. The deadly triple blow: · Reputation collapse: Validators exploited vulnerabilities to profit, officially labeled as "malicious behavior" but details remain completely opaque; the market fears "not knowing" the most · Deposit and withdrawal freeze: Multiple major exchanges have suspended CORE network deposits and withdrawals for over a week, status still "under investigation," liquidity is locked · Burn hype: Deflationary benefits are offset by both the reputation crisis and liquidity freeze, external funds dare not enter, no matter how much is burned it’s futile When an officially orchestrated vulnerability turns into a trust crisis, the project is going through its most dangerous moment.@多多不梭哈 Before 8:30, he basically cleared his crypto holdings, not even keeping altcoins with significant gains. What he worried about wasn't losing a segment, but that the news would pierce his leveraged position with a needle. The back-and-forth that followed perfectly illustrated this: on major data night, guessing the macro direction right doesn't mean making money from the market. Before the release, Duoduo set a very straightforward judgment rule: if the data falls below 50,000 to 60,000, he prefers to interpret it as bullish; if it is clearly above this range, he first treats it as bearish. After seeing the published value of 162,000, his first reaction was "far exceeding expectations," and he quickly shifted to a bearish mindset. In his framework, strong employment data raises rate hike expectations, and funds may reassess US stocks and crypto asset valuations, so the previous rebound caused by a drop in rate hike probability is at risk of being recalled. He later read that the probability of a rate hike once reached about 61%. Duoduo believes this means the previous day's positive news is being overshadowed by that day's data, and the market needs to re-price "higher rates to last longer." For $BTC and $ETH, logically, risk appetite is under pressure: as interest rate expectations rise, funds focus more on returns on cash, banks, and bonds, making it harder for highly volatile assets to sustain buying. But the real difficulty quickly emerged: the news gave bears a reason, but the price did not move in a clean straight line. When the data first came out, the market did press down, then quickly pulled back; As the US stock market opened, the semiconductor sector's strength and intraday news continued to cause volatility. Often several times in emptiness, level, and moreIt's so painful, why hasn't $USELESS dropped yet? I just shorted $USELESS again; this is the fifth time I've shorted it during this rally. That means I've been liquidated four times before. I started shorting at $0.09 and have been shorting all the way up to now. —————————————————— Originally, I didn't want to short anymore because this coin is just too wild. I was a bit worried it might surge like $PIPPIN did earlier this year. But after analyzing its contract data, I chose to short again because the contract data looks really strange. The contract data shows that from early morning until now, the open interest has been continuously decreasing, while the long-short ratio has been steadily increasing. In other words, shorts are massively closing their positions at this point. This is very, very unusual. Generally, massive short covering happens after a market crash. But $USELESS hasn't shown that; it has been steadily rising from early morning until now. I don't understand this phenomenon. However, judging by the result, shorts are now massively covering their positions. This means that if the whales try to pump the price again, their potential profits will be greatly reduced, and they might even lose money. So, I shorted for the fifth time. —————————————————— Currently, its price is still near my cost basis. I don't know if this time is right or wrong; I'll just go with the flow. Whether it rises or falls doesn't matter anymore.Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceed expectations! Gold plunges $70, BTC dives straight down from 81,600, rate hike probability soars Brothers, last night's nonfarm data completely stunned the market. Expected 56,000, actual hit 162,000 — a three-month high! July was also revised up by 44,000 (from -23,000 to +21,000), two months in a row the data proved wrong. The job market is far from cooling down. Once the data came out, the market instantly turned. Gold plunged $70, silver dropped $1.5, the dollar index surged 34 points, and CME's bets on a September rate hike skyrocketed. The optimistic sentiment from the morning session was wiped out. BTC dove from 81,600, ETH fell below 2,450, and many long positions were liquidated. My judgment: this data pushed Waller's “data dependency” to the edge of a cliff. Waller just said on Thursday “CPI decides everything,” now the nonfarm data exploded first. Next, the September 11 CPI will decide everything — if CPI again exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is almost certain. RSI has already dropped to 12.5, sentiment is extremely oversold, there may be a short-term technical rebound, but the big trend has been reversed by tonight's data. Before CPI is released, any rebound could be a bull trap. Don't forget, June and July data were both significantly revised upward; the job market is much stronger than imagined. $BTC $ETH $XAU #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The U.S. August nonfarm payroll data released at 8:30 last night showed an increase of 162,000 jobs, nearly three times the expected figure, and July's data was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. This indicates that the U.S. labor market is not cooling down but is actually very strong. This directly shattered the market's illusion of the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes in September. Once the data was released, the strong figures immediately triggered profit-taking by bulls and a short squeeze, causing prices to plunge below the $80,000 mark. Therefore, before and after major data releases, it is best to firmly stay out of the market or only use very low positions to cope, which is the long-term strategy. In the financial market, your principal is your lifeline $CORE Online Rumors About Multiple Exchanges Delisting CORE: Analysis of Delisting VS Temporary Suspension, Circulating in the community is a list of many exchanges "delisting CORE," causing panic for many who see it directly. Here, we need to distinguish two completely different matters: permanent delisting of trading pairs vs. temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals during a hard fork maintenance. The community messages mix these two, amplifying the panic. 📝 Information Breakdown 1. Permanent Delisting (a few small and medium platforms) KuCoin, Phemex, TEBBIT, CoinEx and some smaller exchanges chose to delist CORE trading pairs and close deposits and withdrawals after the vulnerability incident, which is a platform's independent decision. 2. Mainstream Large Platforms: Only temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals during the hard fork, not delisted OKX, Coinbase, Bitget, LBank, Bithumb, Coinone: During the hard fork upgrade window, network deposits and withdrawals were temporarily closed to prevent fork confusion and token disorder. This is a standard risk-avoidance operation by exchanges when a public chain has bugs. Now that the hard fork has been completed, mainstream platforms like OKX have fully restored deposits and withdrawals, and trading pairs remain normal; this is not a permanent delisting. OKX only delisted the "on-chain coin-earning staking products," while spot trading and deposit/withdrawal functions have returned. ⚠️ Key Points That Are Easily Misleading 1. Mixing "temporary suspension for maintenance" and "permanent delisting" together gives the false impression that many top exchanges collectively abandoned CORE, which is misinformation spread in the community. 2. Some small and medium exchanges choosing to delist objectively reflects a shift in risk assessment after the incident, which is a real negative factor. 3. Although mainstream exchanges have resumed services, after the vulnerability incident, institutions and exchanges will raise risk control thresholds for the project, making future listings and collaborations more cautious. Market Reality Insights - The negative impact has already been digested by a round of price adjustment, but continued delisting by smaller exchanges will reduce trading channels and liquidity, which is a medium- to long-term suppressive factor. - Do not panic excessively over rumors of "all exchanges delisting," nor completely ignore the real risk of delisting by some platforms. - Distinguish facts: major exchanges have resumed trading and deposits/withdrawals; some small and medium exchanges have permanently delisted. Summary: The vulnerability incident indeed brought costs to CORE at the exchange level, but the online rumor of "top exchanges collectively delisting" is information confusion. When reading news, prioritize official exchange announcements and do not directly copy group chat screenshots. BTC Bitcoin surged to 82,000 then pulled back, falling below 80,000. What’s the outlook? Last night, the US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far exceeding expectations. The rate cut expectations cooled sharply, US Treasury yields soared, gold plunged, and the crypto market fell in sync: Bitcoin briefly surged to $82,000 then quickly retreated, falling below the 80,000 mark, hitting a low near 79,000; Ethereum dropped to around $2,450, both down over 2%. The main reasons are threefold: tightening macro interest rate expectations, concentrated profit-taking above 80,000, and a chain liquidation of derivatives leverage, with open contracts decreasing by about $20 billion in a single day. Looking ahead, 80,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears: holding above it means consolidation and accumulation, losing it points to the next support at 76,000; the dense liquidation zone between 81,700 and 82,300 must be reclaimed before any reversal can be expected. Short term is weak consolidation, strictly control leverage, and avoid blind bottom-fishing. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 I saw someone say ETH could still increase 333 times, and I almost couldn't sit still. From 300 billion to 100 trillion, he says ETH has that potential. I did the math, all the gold in the world combined is about 15 trillion. What kind of concept is 100 trillion? Even if you package and sell all the gold, all the real estate, and all the listed companies on Earth, you'd still have to multiply that several times to make up the amount. First, he calls ETH a "store of value," but even Vitalik himself wouldn't dare accept that. The ETH supply mechanism is dynamic; today it might be deflationary, tomorrow it could be inflationary. How can something without a fixed supply compete with BTC for the digital gold position? BTC has a 21 million cap, everyone knows that. How much ETH is there in total? No one can say clearly. How can that be a store of value? Second, he says ETH is "trust-neutral." This statement coming from the founder of 1confirmation is itself a paradox—he invested in ETH, so of course he has to say it's good. Have you ever seen a VC say their investment is no good? Third, the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped from 0.08 in 2022 to 0.031 now. It has fallen more than 60% in three years. You think that's all? The busier L2 gets, the less Gas the mainnet collects. How can someone who needs L2 to survive compete with BTC? From 300 billion to 100 trillion, anything is possible in dreams On-chain data! Beijing time September 4th, 20:30, non-farm payroll data released, BTC dropped from $82,240 to $79,300 within minutes, a short-term drop of over 2.7%, with nearly $520 million liquidated in contracts across the market, both longs and shorts getting wiped out. Key points! August non-farm employment was 162,000, far exceeding expectations, the market immediately raised the September rate hike probability to 58%, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose simultaneously, putting pressure on the crypto market. The magical part is, a few hours before the data release, the market was violently squeezing shorts, a bunch of short positions just got flushed out; once the news came out, the chasing longs were immediately hammered, all within less than half an hour. At 21:02, Jiang Zhuoer liquidated all his Bitcoin at $82,050 and opened a short position. His judgment was straightforward: this rebound only consolidated for 13 days, strong resistance at 83,000-84,000 is hard to break, wait for a pullback to 70,000-72,000 to buy back; if it really breaks through 83,400, stop loss at 82,300. There were also big moves on the institutional side. Strategy ended a 10-week buying pause, spent $370 million to buy 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,318, total holdings now at 845,050 BTC. But the spot ETF quietly reversed, the previous large net inflows ended, and small net outflows have begun. On-chain is quite clean, no dormant whales waking up, large transfers are basically internal rebalancing by institutions—this round of volatility is all the contract market fighting itself.$BTC Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 released, why didn't BTC crash in response? This time, the US nonfarm data is far more than just a "slight beat". New jobs 162,000, market expected only 55,000, actual figure nearly three times the expectation. Private nonfarm 127,000, expected only 45,000; unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. More impactful is the large upward revision of last month's data: originally reported July -23,000, revised to +21,000. This directly hits the smooth logic the market accepted in the past 24 hours: Weak employment → Fed pauses rate hikes → US Treasury yields fall → BTC rises Now the employment data shows strength, yet BTC did not immediately give back all the previous day's gains, still oscillating around $81,000. Anomalous market behavior often deserves deeper investigation than the data itself. Looking closely at this report, while employment is strong, wages have not spiraled out of control: Hourly wages up 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations; up 3.1% year-over-year, only 0.1 points above expectations, even below the previous 3.2%. The market signal is: The certainty of a September rate hike pause has been weakened. But it is far from: A September rate hike being a done deal. So there is no need to rush to conclusions about price direction now. The real answer is not in the nonfarm numbers themselves, but in the secondary pricing after the data release, focusing on the continuation trend 5–15 minutes later.📈Today's Market BTC: $79663.54 -1.86% ETH: $2451.62 -1.85% XRP: $1.396 -3.95% BNB: $719.06 -0.61% SOL: $101.73 -2.37% TRX: $0.33162 +0.29% DOGE: $0.08455 -3.34% HYPE: $83.885 -2.21% The market collectively pulled back, with only TRX slightly turning positive. BTC is tugging back and forth around the $80,000 mark, lacking upward catalysts but supported by buyers on the downside. The market has entered a typical macro game of oscillation. 🌐The macro drama is just beginning — this is the real main storyline now. US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. Normal logic: Overheated employment → strong inflation resilience → Fed rate cuts delayed → bearish for risk assets. However, Trump publicly pressured the Fed to cut rates, even threatening: If rates are not cut, stop trading with countries with trade deficits. The market is now split into two forces: ✅ Political force: strongly pushing for rate cuts, inflating risk asset bubbles ❌ Economic data: hot employment, lacking data support for rate cuts The biggest upcoming event is the Fed's September policy meeting. Will data or politics decide? This will directly determine whether BTC can hold above $80,000. CoinShareThe rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level since 2020, while it has actually decoupled from the S&P 500. This data itself is objective, but how to interpret it, I think I still need to think more. What I care about more is: whether this correlation can hold up in the next real risk event. It might still be too early to talk about the "establishment of digital gold" now. My habit is to look in layers: First, look at $ETH. If ETH/BTC can rise, and BTC itself does not collapse structurally, that indicates market sentiment is spreading and funds are willing to move outward. If ETH stays flat, then this round might still be BTC's own market. Then there are SOL, XRP, BNB, which help me see the breadth of the market. Further out, SUI, APT, AVAX, NEAR test whether funds dare to move to the far end of the risk curve. On the DeFi side, AAVE, UNI, CRV, PENDLE, I think their strength is more valuable as a reference than their price itself — if they are rising, it means there are real money movements on-chain. I keep LINK and ONDO in my watchlist as references for the RWA line. TAO, RENDER, FET, these AI assets, are more about observing whether liquidity is truly overflowing. Logically, if the pricing framework of $BTC switches from tech stocks to scarce monetary assets, the valuation system will indeed change. But this is a process that requires time to verify; a single correlation indicator does not explain much. The next macro shock will be the real test. At that time, whether BTC moves with gold or with the Nasdaq will be more convincing than any correlation coefficient now. Until then, I tend to treat it as a phase market consensus and am not in a hurry to define it. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC Bitcoin Real-Time Market (9/5 Saturday 07:09 UTC+8 · Anchor $79,750) Current Price: $79,750 (BitInfo Aggregate 79,717 / OKX 79,735 / Coinbase 79,643 / Kraken 79,793; 24h -2.5% to -3.0%, yesterday's close 81,800 → post-nonfarm low 78,650 → Asia session rebound to 79,750 friction) Intraday Range: $78,650–$82,300 (9/4 full day; pre-nonfarm high 82,262 → post-data low 78,650 → Asia session 79,750) Market Cap: ~ $1.600 trillion (20.07M × 79,750), dominance ~58.5% Volume: 24h spot $26.7B (CoinGecko) / BitInfo single-source trade amplification, nonfarm night volume reversal + Asia session volume contraction Sentiment: Fear & Greed 74 Greedy (Feixiaohao) but price has retraced; daily RSI from 72 overbought down to ~58–60 (still relatively strong, not oversold); 4H MACD golden cross red bars closing to death cross green bars emerging, 1H 78,650 wick then rebound to 79,750 friction Technical Structure Rewrite (80K new bottom tested vs 82.3K triple rejection still resistance) 79,750 is the retracement after nonfarm strong spike + rate hike bounce 58–62% + 10Y 4.80%, structure shifted from "80K new bottom vs 82.3K night high" back to "78,650 nonfarm wick vs 81,800 resistance"; 80,000 is daily close key line (close below = false breakout back to 77,800; close above 80K = high-level consolidation continuing to 81,800), 82,320 triple rejection remains the strongest ceiling. Funds and Macro (updated 9/5 07:09) Nonfarm (9/4 20:30): August +162K (expected 55K, prior -23K revised +21K), unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, hourly wages +0.3% MoM; CME rate hike probability 50.4% → 58–62%, 10Y 4.783–4.801%, 2Y 4.416% highest since Jan 2025, DXY 99.17, gold down 2% → BTC back to 78,650 ETF: 9/3 single day +$731M (IBIT +$454M, best monthly day), but 9/4 nonfarm night likely partial retracement, final 9/4 value to be revealed Monday; institutional buying hedged by macro rate hike expectations On-chain: Nonfarm night 81,600 → 78,650 mainly liquidations of longs, leverage not bad but chasing longs got shaken out; whales holding old positions at 75–76K unmoved, new positions 80K+ partially underwater Next Steps: 9/11 August CPI is last shot before 9/15–16 FOMC — hot CPI → rate hike probability 62% up to 70%+ → downside target 76,400; cold CPI → drop to 50% → close 80K then push 81,800 Weekend (9/5–9/7 no US stock market) scenarios Baseline: 78,650–80,800 friction, hold 78,650 grind to 79,750; test 80,800 fail then pull back to 79,000 Rebound: 1H close above 80,800 target 81,800 (resistance turned support) → 82,320; fail to reclaim 80,800 means reduce positions on any rebound Pullback: 4H close below 78,650 → target 77,800 → 76,400; daily close below 76,400 then consider 74,788 Spot: 79,750 no chase or kill, wait for 78,650–79,000 stabilization to add ≤5% per trade or confirm close above 80,800 then follow; old positions at 74.8–75.6K take profit raised to 77,800 Futures: 80,000–80,800 stagnation mild short (stop loss 81,000, target 78,650) ≤2x leverage; no short chasing below 78,650 (nonfarm wick already shaken out + weekend thin market reverse wick risk) Key Observations Whether 80,000 daily close holds (close below = false breakout, target 77,800; close above = high box 80–82.3K) Whether 78,650 4H tested thrice holds (break means 77,800) Whether 81,800 1H can reclaim (fail means 82.3K triple rejection remains hard ceiling) 9/11 CPI and rate hike probability (whether 58–62% rises above 70%) Whether 10Y stays below 4.80% (if back above 4.85%+ then 78,650 hard to hold) ETF 9/4 final value revealed Monday (whether outflows after 9/3 +$731M) ETH/BTC 0.0308 (2454 ÷ 79750), relatively stable vs BTC but not back to 0.0313 ⚠️ Objective market data, not investment advice. 79750 is BitInfo 05:08 aggregate 79717 + OKX 07:04 79735 + Coinbase 05:57 79643 cross-frame, representing 9/4 nonfarm night retracement then Asia session friction; daily RSI 58 neutral, 80K daily close is true multi-day line, 4H real close below 78,650 counts as pullback start, weekend thin market stop loss relaxed 80–100 USD. Single line summary: 9/4 20:30 nonfarm +162K → rate hike 50.4% → 60% → 81,600 → 78,650 retracement; 80K daily close referee (close below false breakout target 77.8K), 81.8K resistance, 82.3K triple rejection; 78.65K nonfarm wick bottom; ETF 9/3 +$731M; 9/11 CPI next breakpoint. $BTC Non-farm data (bearish for the crypto circle): Employment significantly exceeds expectations → economy overheats → supports high interest rates → unfavorable for gold and BTC. Trump's call (theoretically bullish): Pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates → if rate cut expectations rise → beneficial for gold. But the Fed's independence means the president's verbal pressure won't change the interest rate pace. Before substantive policy implementation, this bullish clue is "empty." So the upcoming CPI is the key variable; CPI inflation data directly affects whether the Fed cuts rates in September and by how much! Yesterday's daily RSI divergence for $BTC made the decline inevitable; the 82850 resistance in May continues to suppress, as mentioned many times before—check previous posts by Melon for verification! $OKB continues to struggle at the 108 level; actually, at 4 PM yesterday afternoon, it was clear someone was defending the price there, but unfortunately, the coin dropped and dragged it down. Currently, it’s still not giving up, lingering here. There are resistance levels all above; if it can't break through, expect further downside!Continuing to track $BTC long positions at 65400. I previously regarded the non-farm payrolls as the first real test after BTC broke through 80,000. Now that the results are out, I have to revise my judgment. After the non-farm announcement, BTC did not continue to hold above 80,000 but instead fell back below this key level. At least based on this feedback, the short-term strength of the previous breakout was not as strong as I initially thought. However, here I will separate short-term and long-term views. My BTC contract was opened around 65400, and I also hold spot positions, so this drop back below 80,000 does not make me completely overturn my previous long-term view. What I am revising now is the "strength after breaking 80,000," not the entire long-term BTC logic. Since the market has given a new answer, the judgment should be adjusted accordingly. From now on, for me, 80,000 can no longer be regarded as "confirmed support after the breakout." I will reassess when it is truly reclaimed. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The entire network is hyping $CORE Long-term logic: shakeout and accumulation, all negative news exhausted, ecosystem landing, ultimate market rally buildup. But when you peel back the heavy narrative packaging, the real market logic is very simple. The so-called exhaustion of negative news is just a phase of repair and closure. Multiple deposit delays and repeated on-chain rectifications mean underlying technical risks have not been completely eliminated; uncertainty always exists. What people call shakeout and buildup is very likely just weak sideways trading without support. Positive news keeps coming out, but the price shows no reaction; this is not buildup, it’s a lack of market capital recognition. The BTC-Fi sector narrative is grand, but actual realization, real cash flow, and institutional entry remain at the expectation stage. Faith built on expectations cannot withstand market volatility. Coupled with better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and rising interest rate expectations, overall liquidity in the crypto space is tight. The current repeated weariness is not a prelude to a bull market night, but more an emotional drain and buying time to create space. The long-term story sounds appealing, but the real risks in the short and mid-term have never truly been digested. Once the non-farm payrolls were released, this $ETH pullback is actually easy to understand. In August, the US added 162,000 non-farm jobs, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of just over 50,000, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. This means the market's original expectation for easing was suddenly doused with cold water. ETH had previously recovered steadily from around $2400 to above $2500, accumulating quite a few short-term bulls. With the macro data leaning strong, the dollar and US Treasury yield expectations rose, naturally leading the crypto market to deleverage first, and even large-cap altcoins like ETH couldn't remain unaffected. Currently, ETH is around $2500, and the previous rally zone is already showing obvious selling pressure. This time, I’m not in a hurry to interpret it as a trend reversal. The first round of sell-off triggered by strong non-farm data is more about a re-pricing of expectations. If ETH can hold near $2400 after the pullback and climb back above $2500, it indicates the market still has support.Interest rate hike expectations heat up again! Has the market already priced this in? The market seems to have anticipated the macro trend in advance. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September continues to rise, with the forecast probability increasing from 46% to 52%. Capital always chases profits, and the market often reflects expectations ahead of time. Both BTC and ETH weakened, with $BTC directly falling below the 80,000 mark, already pricing in the negative impact of the rate hike. U.S. stocks have not yet opened. Considering various current news, the market is beginning to question: was the previous day's rise in the tech sector merely a short-term profit-taking wave rather than a genuine bull counterattack? The market is also discussing a trading tactic: optimistic statements released the night before to attract bulls to enter positions, then flipping to shorts once the data is released. From the market perspective, $SNDK's gains were limited last night. The market worries that as negative sentiment intensifies, this asset may face a sharp decline tonight. However, it is important to note that Walsh clearly stated that the August inflation data is the key factor ultimately deciding whether there will be a rate hike in September. The rate hike is not yet set in stone; currently, it is only a market trading expectation. Expectation-driven market fluctuations can be extreme, and expectations and final outcomes can easily reverse. Many traders stuck in positions hope for a deep drop to break even. While a market crash is possible, blindly betting on a one-sided plunge carries extremely high risk. Expectations can be rewritten by data at any time. Do not be subjectively certain about market direction. In the face of a highly uncertain macro environment, risk management must come first. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 The market had just priced in "no rate hike in September," but the non-farm payrolls tore up the script. The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, nearly three times the market expectation of 56,000; the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The result was straightforward: US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, the bet on a September rate hike increased to about 65%, and BTC fell from around $81,000 back below $80,000. What I find most interesting this time is that it wasn't a worsening economy that crushed crypto, but rather an economy that is too resilient, making the cost of capital more expensive again. For BTC, the real opponent right now isn't any blockchain or KOL, but the increasingly unwilling-to-cheap dollar interest rate schedule. However, one employment report alone can't make the Fed press the button. The inflation data on September 11 will decide whether "hot employment" turns into "higher rates." #BTC #NonFarm For informational purposes only, not investment advice. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm payrolls in August exceeded expectations by 162,000, fueling rising bets on rate hikes. The nonfarm data was more hawkish than expected; $BTC surged then pulled back, $ETH showed amplified volatility, quickly giving back most of its earlier gains, and is now back to oscillating within a high-level range. An interesting phenomenon in the market: ARB, OP, and CRV have recently been collectively active, with the profit-making effect in the L2 ecosystem visibly apparent, yet ETH itself remains stagnant. This "little brothers charging ahead, big brother holding the rear" pattern is quite subtle in crypto history—some interpret it as a sign of a catch-up rally, but a more concerning possibility is that the hotter L2 gets, the more the mainnet's value capture logic is diluted. Funds verbally support the Ethereum ecosystem but physically move back and forth between different layers, resulting in the ETH/BTC rate failing to reclaim 0.04 for a long time, and the so-called independent rally remains elusive. On the macro side, things are a bit awkward after the nonfarm report. Expectations for a September rate hike have intensified, and US Treasury yields remain high—these well-known risks are understood by all. But more troublesome than rate hikes is another possibility: if the economy continues to hold steady without cooling or overheating, the Fed has no urgent need to cut rates, and the liquidity release timetable could be much later than the market expects. ETH, which relies on forward-looking narratives to support its valuation, is often the first to have its bubble squeezed under macro pressure. Key price levels are actually quite clear: Resistance above lies at 2510-2540, where recent trapped positions and short-term profit-taking accumulate, naturally causing selling pressure near this zone; strong resistance is at 2560-2580, where a volume-backed breakout is needed to open space. Support below is at 2430-2450, the last respectable line for bulls in the short term; strong support is at 2380-2400, and a decisive break below would weaken the rebound pattern. There are also some bullish signals: the daily rebound structure remains intact, staking volume is steadily rising, ETF funds are flowing back in phases, and buying support on pullbacks is visible. But these are mostly operations of existing funds; a large part of the earlier rise came from short covering, not a major influx of new capital. This leads to an awkward situation—buying can't keep up when prices reach resistance zones. A reminder on the futures market: open interest remains high, with both longs and shorts betting; major players don't need a one-sided breakout, they can sweep stop losses back and forth with spikes. ETH's volatility is inherently greater than BTC's, and setting stop losses too tight risks being stopped out by noise. In terms of trading, the current price is in the middle of the range, which is not suitable for heavy directional bets. Wait for a volume-backed breakout above 2540 before considering participation; for those holding longs, treat 2430 as the defensive bottom line and don't stubbornly hold if it breaks. For futures, leave enough stop loss distance; survival is more important than profit at this stage. Overall, the rebound structure is not yet broken, but bulls clearly show signs of fatigue after the nonfarm report. The market is now digesting profit-taking in a range, waiting for the broader market to choose a direction again—and the final direction will likely depend on CPI and the Fed's stance. Until the direction is clear, maintaining control over position size and avoiding losses is winning. US Treasury yields have surged again; is this long bond fire going to burn $BTC as well? The data is undeniably strong. In the first week of September, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.818%, approaching 5%; the 30-year yield was even more aggressive, directly surpassing 5.28%. The Besent trick of "repo suppressing yields" lasted less than two weeks before failing. Why can't it be suppressed? Triple pressures exploded simultaneously. First, a $40 trillion debt burden. US national debt officially exceeded $40 trillion in August, with interest alone costing $1.4 trillion annually, nearly 18% of federal revenue. The July monthly deficit was $432.3 billion, soaring 48% year-over-year. Second, AI giants are competing with the US government for funds. Tech companies have issued about $194 billion in bonds for 2026, up 79% year-over-year. JPMorgan raised its full-year TMT bond issuance forecast to $540 billion. Third, inflation and geopolitics add fuel to the fire. Oil prices surged above 95, and rate hike expectations rose from 50% to 70%. The market now demands not just "lending you money," but "lending you money with sufficient compensation." What does this mean for $BTC? The traditional script is "yields rise, $BTC falls." But this time it's a bit different—the US dollar index hasn't risen accordingly; instead, it hovers around 99. The market is starting to interpret high yields as a signal of "fiscal unsustainability," not strength. The fiercer this long bond fire burns 🔥, the more complex the market's play becomes. ✌️✌️✌️ $ETH $BTC $ZEC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
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