Posteo

If the US-Iran reconciliation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz come true Impact research report on the crypto circle and US stocks! Transmission chain: Strait smooth → geopolitical risk premium on crude oil dissipates, oil prices decline → inflation pressure eases → market rate cut expectations rise → favorable for global risk assets. I. US Stocks 1. Positive impact: Nasdaq, AI tech growth stocks (NVIDIA, etc.). Lower oil prices reduce inflation, so the Federal Reserve does not need to maintain high interest rates, relieving valuation pressure on high-growth stocks. 2. Beneficiary sectors: aviation, logistics, chemicals; energy sector negative, falling oil prices will suppress oil stocks. 3. Risks: only short-term sentiment-driven; if it is just a temporary 60-day agreement, the positive effect is easily "realized and sold off," and the market may fall after the news. II. Crypto Circle Bitcoin is currently a risk asset, following the general trend of US tech stocks. Positive logic: 1. Falling oil prices reduce inflation, market trades rate cut expectations, liquidity expectations improve, favorable for BTC; 2. Geopolitical panic subsides, safe-haven funds flow out of gold, some funds flow into risk assets. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryStressTest