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CORE has repeatedly encountered major issues: Is it intentional sell-off to cash out, or deliberate guidance towards delisting and zeroing out? I. Objective facts that have already occurred 1. Multiple vulnerabilities appeared at the protocol code level that should not have existed A vulnerability appeared in the Satoshi-Plus consensus reward scoring logic, allowing some validators to mine CORE tokens excessively, creating an over-issuance risk. The project team had to initiate an emergency hard fork to fix it without rolling back historical transactions, and the excess tokens already produced cannot be revoked. Historically, there have also been abnormal reward mechanisms, cascading liquidations in lending markets, contract logic defects, and other incidents, frequently exposing shortcomings in the underlying code and economic model design. ​ 2. After multiple incidents, exchanges took risk-avoidance actions After the vulnerability incidents broke out, many exchanges suspended deposit and withdrawal services; leading exchanges like Binance completed assessments and proceeded with delisting. Exchange delisting is a risk control decision made by the platform based on risk, trading volume, and network stability, not something the project team can directly command. ​ 3. The community’s intuitive perception Accidents repeatedly occur with incomplete fixes; comprehensive post-incident reports are often delayed after major events; the project team’s public information transparency is insufficient, with incomplete disclosure of the number of over-issued tokens and involved node information, causing many holders to suspect "manipulation." II. Comparison of two speculative logics Speculation A: Intentionally creating problems to seize the opportunity to sell off and cash out ✅ Phenomena supporting community suspicion: - Repeated accidents with continuous low-level design flaws; ​ - Large address sell-offs accompanying nodes where major risk events occur, with the token price continuously weakening; ​ - Delayed disclosure of key information, many details need to be mined by the community on-chain.#FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday At 8:30 tonight, initial jobless claims will give an early indication; at 8:30 tomorrow, the nonfarm payrolls will decide the fate. Although initial claims are a weekly minor data point, it’s the last employment data before the nonfarm payrolls and can somewhat hint at tomorrow’s outcome. The last figure was 203,000, this time the expectation is about 210,000. If it significantly exceeds expectations, it means employment is still strong, and tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls will likely be good; if it falls well below expectations, the signal of cooling employment is clearer. But honestly, initial claims have limited reference value; the real highlight is tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls. Employment numbers, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be released together, directly determining whether there will be a rate hike in September. Currently, there is a 60% expectation for a rate hike, just waiting for the nonfarm payrolls to decide. ADP has already signaled 38,000, below the expected 47,000, indicating the job market is cooling. But ADP often contradicts nonfarm payrolls; last month ADP was 44,000 while nonfarm payrolls were -23,000, so don’t rely solely on ADP, wait for the nonfarm payrolls. Currently, the market shows $BTC at 78,000, $ETH at 2,410, $SOL at 100, with the three coins consolidating waiting for data. BTC 77,000 is a key support; if broken, look at 75,000, with resistance at 79,000-80,000; ETH has support at 2,350, resistance at 2,450-2,500, with more elasticity than BTC. Take a quick look at initial claims tonight but don’t take it too seriously; tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls are the focus. Keep light positions before the data, follow the trend after the release. Set stop losses well, data-driven market volatility is large, one wave can wipe you out.BTC is currently fluctuating back around $77,500–$78,000, while ETH is holding in the $2,400–$2,500 range. From a capital perspective, institutional demand has not completely disappeared. The US spot BTC ETF recorded about $3.5 billion in net inflows in August, making it one of the strongest months this year. However, after entering September, ETF funds saw a net outflow of about $236 million, indicating that while there is still buying interest, short-term funds are becoming more cautious. There are also some different signals on ETH's side—recently, spot ETH ETFs still saw net inflows at the start of September, indicating institutional funds have not fully withdrawn, but market sentiment is noticeably more cautious than in August. Moreover, the real focus this week is not just on candlestick charts. US nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, and expectations for Fed policy in September are also being influenced by economic data. Currently, the market still has significant divergence over the interest rate path, so macro data is likely to become a catalyst for the next breakout. So now, I won't immediately define the market as a new round of rally just because the price rebounds by a few percentage points. What I really want to see is: price breaking through key resistance + volume significantly increasing + holding firm after the breakout. If it's just a shrinking volume rebound, it's easy to be pushed back by selling pressure. But if BTC can break through $80,500–$81,000 again with increased volume, and ETF funds return to sustained net inflows, then in the short term,Don't jump to the conclusion that the bull market isn't over or that this is the starting point of a new rally just because whales have slightly increased their positions recently. Since the peak at 81474, whales have added 6765 BTC, which only indicates that some large holders chose to buy within this range. It doesn't represent a unified bullish stance across the entire whale group. On-chain data only shows incremental buying; it doesn't simultaneously reveal that another group of large holders might be taking profits and exiting in batches at high levels. What we see is just a partial sample. A pullback and turnover don't mean all chips flow to long-term holders. During the decline, there is both long-term accumulation and short-term capital playing rebounds. The supply-demand structure won't completely reverse due to a single phase of buying. The recent continuous outflows from BTC ETFs are a negative capital signal that offsets this, as bullish and bearish funds are constantly tugging against each other. Be especially cautious of a logical fallacy: short-term counter-trend buying ≠ the immediate start of a new major upward wave. Even after whales increase positions, the market can still consolidate and bottom out for a long time or even continue to dip and shake out weak hands. Large holders buying can also get trapped. Giving direct buy recommendations based on current price or pullback levels ignores macro risks; liquidity pressure from US Treasury yields and oil prices has not disappeared. For now, this whale accumulation should be seen as a somewhat positive observation signal, not a guaranteed reason to go long. Whether the bull market restarts depends on a volume breakout above previous highs and sustained institutional capital inflows. Don't prematurely bet heavily on a one-sided upward trend. Question: Is whale accumulation a long-term layout or just short-term bottom fishing and rebound play? ⚠️For sharing opinions only, not investment advice $BTC#SaudiCrude9YearLow Saudi crude exports reportedly fell to around 3M barrels per day in August—the lowest level since tracking began in 2017 🛢️ What caught my attention is that this doesn’t appear to be only a production story. Hormuz has become the bottleneck, with US forces reportedly escorting 40 merchant vessels through the strait on September 1, a wartime high. Pressure is building elsewhere too. The Red Sea bypass remains risky amid Houthi attacks, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure led Moscow to extend its diesel export ban through month-end. Brent approaching a six-week high makes sense in that context, but it’s difficult to separate actual physical tightness from the geopolitical premium 📊 To me, the key question is whether these disruptions remain temporary—or start changing normal shipping routes and export capacity for longer. The barrels may still exist. Moving them safely is becoming the real problem.Conclusion first: The $ETH/$BTC rate of 0.033 is the gate to altcoin season. Once the gate opens, all the water flows into altcoins. The gate hasn't opened yet, but it's already seeping. ETH is currently at 2,390, BTC at 77,300, with an ETH/BTC rate of 0.0309. I've mentioned the 0.033 level more than once. Why is this level so important? Because it's the psychological threshold for institutional funds—if the rate holds above 0.033, it means capital is systematically flowing from BTC to ETH, and altcoin season truly begins. Before that, all altcoin rallies are just rehearsals, local trends, and shows for you. What's the current situation? GameFi is rising, Layer2 is rising, AI coins are rising, but ETH hasn't moved, nor has BTC. Small coins are partying on their own, while mainstream coins move sideways. How long can this last? Not long. Without ETH leading the way, altcoin rallies are castles in the air—they rise fast and fall even faster. Look at another data point. ETH staking volume is still hitting new highs, at 34.4 million coins, accounting for 34.4% of total supply. This is a long-term positive; it’s not obvious in the short term, but when it explodes, you'll see how powerful it is. The 2,300 to 2,400 range for ETH is the position for phased accumulation. Buy in three batches: one at 2,400, one at 2,300, and one at 2,200. Once acquired, hold on and add more when the rate breaks 0.033. #ETH #AltcoinSeason #ETHBTC 以横代跌的最后阶段：我建了多单，也把两种结局都想好了  先说结论：77300-77400，多单已进，防守前低，目标84000。 然后从头讲讲，为什么横盘磨了这么久，我反而在"还没突破"的时候就进场了。 一个被误解的信号：压力有效≠要大跌。前高压力区当然是有效的，价格在那里遇阻调整就是证明。但很多人把"遇阻"直接翻译成"要跌"，漏了后半段观察——遇阻之后，市场没有给出大幅回撤。压力打下来却不跌，说明供应没有增加，只是需求暂时歇脚。这种状态叠加大周期多头结构（小周期到月线全线多头排列），最合理的解释就是：中继调整，以横代跌，筹码在高位置换，换完接着走。 这个细节很重要：调整要么横盘，要么深跌，两者基本单独发生。高位横盘之后再来一段深度下跌，性质就变了：那不叫回调，叫反转，会构成多重顶部。目前空头结构走出来了吗？没有。现在只是潜在的顶部，没有确认。我不提前替市场写剧本，只跟着已经发生的事实做决策。 进场的三个理由：1. 位置：价格磨在震荡区间偏底部，回调基本到位——昨天等75000没等到，市场用行动告诉我向下空间有限。2. 赔率：止损放前方低点，距离合理，盈亏比算得过来。3. 时间成本：Don't treat this $CP spot trading competition as a guaranteed profit feast; behind the event benefits lie many overlooked uncertainties. First, let's do the math: the reward is 1.6 million $CP tokens, valued at 64,000 U, and the profit is in tokens, not cash. Once the tokens go live and circulation pressure is released in concentration, the coin price may drop, and the originally estimated 3 U profit per person could shrink or even drop to zero. The number of participants is not fixed at 20,000; if more users flood in, the reward per person will be significantly diluted. The 0.15 U fee exchanged for 3 U is just an ideal estimate, not a guaranteed minimum profit. Second, airdrops not launched on other platforms ≠ the project hoarding tokens or avoiding dumping. Not launching on other channels just means the token distribution rhythm is different; exchange events themselves are a form of token release. A valuation of 200 million looks reasonable but does not mean the token price won't fall after listing; as long as many users receive tokens from the event, unlocking sales will bring huge selling pressure, and the risk of a crash never disappears. The OKX exclusive boost surprise event is more a marketing tactic by the exchange and project team. The surprise mode does filter real traders but does not mean the token itself has long-term value. Participating in volume boosting requires paying fees and slippage costs; frequent back-and-forth trading can easily consume the final token rewards. This event should only be seen as a speculative opportunity, not a guaranteed benefit. You can participate lightly with small funds to try your luck, but never hold a mindset of guaranteed profit by heavy volume boosting. The value of token rewards ultimately depends on the market's ability to absorb them after listing. Question: Is this exchange-exclusive event a genuine opportunity, or just a prelude to distributing tokens? ⚠️This is just a viewpoint sharing, not investment or participation advice $CP最新消息值得关注。 SEC主席 Paul Atkins 近日在 Fox Business 表示，他预计 CLARITY Act 有望在本月继续推进，并希望最终送到总统办公桌。市场消息显示，参议院预计将在 9月中旬推进相关程序，9月15日是目前市场重点关注的时间节点。 如果法案顺利落地，美国加密市场的监管边界可能会进一步清晰，尤其是 SEC 与 CFTC 对数字资产的管辖范围，以及哪些资产更接近证券、商品或稳定币，将拥有更加明确的制度框架。 但问题来了： 利好政策越来越多，为什么价格还是走得这么犹豫？ 答案可能就在资金。 BTC目前仍然徘徊在 $77,000—$79,000 区间，距离市场重点关注的 $80,000关口并不远，但突破之后能不能真正站稳，还需要现货资金持续接力。近期市场也出现过明显的多空清算，说明杠杆资金依然活跃，但这并不等于真正的长期资金已经全面进场。 另一方面，8月底美国现货BTC ETF曾出现明显资金流入，过去7个交易日累计流入约 25亿美元，说明机构需求并没有消失。 所以现在的市场其实存在一个非常有意思的矛盾： 政策在变得越来越清晰，资金却没有完全放下戒心。 而且，$MUBARAK collected 700 USD, used 300 USD, made a maximum profit of 1500 USD but didn't exit Finally took profit at 700 USD Here's a point to review. At first, I wanted to take profit at the previous high here But then I thought it's similar to $USELESS so I gambled on a breakout, But within 15 minutes it just touched the previous high and then dropped by more than ten percent Then I reviewed the difference between it and useless The difference is that when useless broke out the second time, it consolidated very close below the high point But Mubarak didn't, it rapidly surged from below to the high point So this explains why it didn't go higher and was pushed down So there is still a chance next, keep waiting to make a breakout at this point Many people lose not because they picked the wrong coin, but because they "couldn't hold on." After a 15% rise, they start worrying about drawdowns and rush to take profits; After a 4%-6% pullback, they fear missing out and can't help but chase back; After several rounds of back-and-forth, the position is gone, but costs keep rising. Finally, when the real big market kicks off, all you can do is stand outside watching the candlestick race. And recently, the market is exactly the easiest time to leave people behind. In August, $BTC once broke through $81,000, with a monthly gain of over 20%; US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $3.5 billion throughout August. But after entering September, capital began to diverge significantly: on September 1, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236 million, while related ETFs like ETH and SOL still saw net inflows. More importantly, the macro environment is starting to swing again. Oil prices remain high, the Fed's September policy expectations are inconsistent, and the market is even refactoring in a high probability of a rate hike; This Friday's US nonfarm payroll data could also trigger the next major volatility. So the most important thing now is not to guess the next candlestick every day, but not to let your own trading blow yourself out. I prefer to simplify the approach: (1) Prioritize strong trends, don't switch to three coins in one day $BTC Still the market anchor — BTC stability determines the overall market's risk appetite. (2) Take profits in batches after gains, not just liquidate all positions at once. For example, after a 10%-20% rise, gradually cash in, at least keeping some positions in line with the trend. (3) Observe pullbacks in batches; don't do emotional chases and sell-offs## $42.4 Million USDT Freeze Dispute: Visible Balance Does Not Equal Transferable Two Thai businessmen have sued Tether in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, disputing about $42.4 million USDT across 10 Ethereum addresses. The plaintiffs claim that Tether blacklisted these addresses last October, while the related seizure order was only issued in February 2026; Tether states the lawsuit is baseless. The case is still pending judgment. This dispute highlights a mechanism of USDT: tokens in blacklisted addresses remain visible on-chain but cannot be transferred, and Tether holds the administrative authority to destroy such tokens. For stablecoin users, evaluation involves not only whether the peg and reserves are maintained but also whether the addresses can continue to access transfer and platform deposit/withdrawal channels. "Visible balance" and "usable balance" are indeed two different things. #USDT #Stablecoin Non-farm payrolls are coming soon Can $BTC drop significantly again? The bears are eagerly waiting to feast The non-farm data is expected to only raise rate hike expectations The bulls are quickly surrendering This trade was opened at 78921 Now around 77800 Floating profit is already over 900 U Friday's data is the real watershed The probability of a rate hike in September is still above 60% And BTC's rebound has always lacked spot capital support As long as employment data isn't ridiculously weak The pressure from interest rates will be hard to disappear If 77000 breaks again 76000 will have to come out to catch the fall again $SPCX is quite strong though Stock price pulled back near 140 Oppenheimer even raised the target to 280 Now it's not just rockets being hyped AI computing power is the new story I'm not in a hurry to be bearish on $SNDK either It and Kioxia plan to invest over $31 billion in expansion by 2032 The AI storage demand line is still intact So tonight I'll be watching $BTC If non-farm doesn't give the bulls face The shorts will keep eating! #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 🚨 Tomorrow’s NFP could decide the next big move for BTC and stocks. The market feels dead right now—but it’s not because nothing is happening. Everyone is waiting. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls may be the last major piece of data before the September FOMC, and the market is basically holding its breath for a clear signal. Right now, the September rate-cut expectations have been bouncing around 60% for days. ADP came in stronger and pushed hawkish expectations higher. #DailyOrbit It looks like oil prices won't peak in the short term and will continue to rise. Given the current situation, it's no longer a question of "if prices will rise," but rather "how much more they can rise." Saudi Arabia's oil is running low. In August, crude oil exports dropped to 3 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2017. Normally, it's between 5 to 6 million barrels, meaning Saudi Arabia, the "global delivery guy," is delivering half as much. It's not that they don't want to deliver, but the routes are blocked. The Strait of Hormuz isn't completely closed; the US Navy escorted 40 ships through, but the Red Sea route has been completely sealed off by the Houthi forces. Saudi ships tried to take a shortcut but found the path full of dangers. Russia is also faltering. Ukrainian drones continue to "visit" Russian refineries, and Russia's diesel export ban has been extended until the end of September. Currently, the world's two major oil producers are both suffering supply issues—one blocked, the other bombed—causing simultaneous supply bleeding. What's even worse is diesel. The US diesel crack spread has soared above $100 per barrel. Diesel is the lifeline for transportation and agriculture; when diesel prices rise, the food you eat, the goods you transport, and the gasoline you use all have to follow. Inflation expectations can't be suppressed. But this is likely not the end. As long as ships keep getting attacked and refineries keep getting bombed, oil prices won't easily turn back. In the short term, oil prices will likely fluctuate between 94 and 100, and the financial markets will continue to suffer. This wave of rising oil prices simply can't be stopped. $BZ $CL @OKX星球 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The deeper you play, the clearer it becomes: K-lines are the surface, the blockchain is the essence. The surface can be drawn, but the essence is hard to fabricate. Just glanced at the core data; several signals combined make the pattern clearer than last week: First, look at the supply side — still tightening. The total BTC balance on exchanges hasn't moved much in the past three days, but extending the period to 30 days, there's still a net outflow of nearly 45,000 BTC. The number of small wallet addresses holding 1-10 BTC is increasing, indicating retail investors are slowly accumulating chips. Correspondingly, medium-sized addresses holding 10-100 BTC are slightly reducing their holdings — chips are dispersing from the "middlemen" to both ends, which is not a typical distribution pattern. Next, look at stablecoins — noticeably cold. The average daily number of transfers in the past week is nearly 15% less than last month, and large transfers (over 1 million USD) have been halved. When funds don't move, prices are hard to move significantly. This signal is more important than balance changes because if money doesn't enter the market, all "breakouts" should be questioned. There are three operational guidelines: 1. Keep spot base positions unchanged — core assets like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB have unchanged fundamentals, no need to scare yourself. 2. Don't add leverage to bet on direction — in a volatile market, repeatedly triggering stop losses is the fastest way to lose money, no exceptions. 3. Keep some USDT on hand — if it really drops, you have bullets to catch it; if it really breaks out, you have positions to follow, making entry and exit comfortable. The biggest fear in this market is not being wrong in judgment, but being forced by volatility to trade repeatedly, ultimately losing both principal and confidence. Slow down, be steady, the answers on-chain have never deceived anyone. Writing strategies with TradingView is actually not complicated; the double moving average is the easiest to get started with. Choose two moving averages, for example, a fast line like the 10-day MA and a slow line like the 60-day MA; buy on golden cross and sell on death cross. When backtesting A-shares, be careful not to directly apply parameters from the crypto market. A-shares have weaker trends, and in a choppy market, golden and death crosses will cause frequent losses. It’s recommended to add a filter condition, such as only going long when the stock price is above the 200-day MA, to avoid frequent stop losses during bear markets. TradingView’s Pine Script language is very simple; just modify the numbers based on the official template to run your strategy. Focus on the profit-loss ratio and maximum drawdown in the backtest report; don’t just look at total returns, as that can be misleading. Also, include A-share market fees and slippage in your calculations; otherwise, the backtest may look good but live trading will not. Don’t be greedy when optimizing parameters; train with three years of data, then validate with the most recent year to avoid overfitting. Double moving averages perform better on $BTC than on A-shares because crypto trends have stronger continuity, but remember to set the trading time to 7x24 hours during backtesting. Finally, a reminder: making money in backtests does not guarantee profits in live trading; mindset and discipline are much more important than parameters.Not just empty promises! $ARB is entering a bull run mode today?!!! Up 18% in 24h, surprisingly because Robinhood Chain has allocated its first real revenue into Arbitrum's treasury. Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, launched on 7/1, with DEX volume surpassing $47 billion and TVL at $1.4 billion in two months. According to the expansion plan, 10% of net protocol fees are returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem. On 9/1, daily fees reached $3.75 million, and 10% means $375,000 directly into the DAO treasury. This is ARB's first real income linkage, not just empty promises. Combined with technical factors forcing a short squeeze: breaking out from the depressed 0.07–0.08 range with volume, futures volume increased 7x in 24h, open interest rose 62%, and funding rate at −0.0027% (shorts pay longs), a typical short squeeze. However, on 9/16, 92.63 million tokens (about $8.9 million) unlock, and on 9/23 another 139 million tokens unlock, consecutively pressuring supply; Robinhood's 90-day gas subsidy expires at the end of September, raising suspicions of inflated volume, with research suggesting 99% of new volume looks like wash trading. Over 7 days, expect high-level oscillation with a slight pullback; a pre-unlock surge to 0.14–0.15 is possible, but 9/16 is a clear sell signal. If it can't hold 0.114, it will fall back to 0.10. The latest full yield curve from the U.S. Treasury shows the 10-year Treasury closing at 4.79% and the 30-year at 5.27%; during the previous trading day, the 10-year even touched around 4.82%, the highest since November 2023. The drop in oil prices only slightly eased yields, but it did not change the fact that "high interest rates are still in play." More importantly, the timing overlaps. The Federal Reserve meets from September 15 to 16, with the market pricing in about a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike; during the same window, the Senate has scheduled a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act for the afternoon of September 15. This is not a newly introduced regulation but pins "regulatory expectations" and "rate hike risks" in the same week. The bill requires 60 votes to advance debate; passing does not mean it immediately becomes law; failing means policy premiums will have to be given back. Distant water can quench near thirst, but it cannot resolve today's positions. The funding side also does not provide a one-sided answer. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $101.1 million on September 2, but the day before recorded a net outflow of $236.5 million; the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $48.2 million on the same day. Money is still flowing in and out, not like the continuous large-scale absorption seen in mid to late August.Gold prices strengthen again, where does the bulls' confidence come from? Gold has once again entered an upward trend, with spot gold rising above $4427, gaining nearly 1% intraday. Domestic gold T+D and bank gold reserves have also risen in tandem, and gold funds have seen a slight rebound. From the capital side, global gold ETF total holdings have reached 1056.62 tons, with continuous capital deployment. Central banks worldwide continued to increase gold holdings in July, adding 19.91 tons in a single month. Under the global environment of high interest rates and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the long-term trend of central banks purchasing gold has not changed, providing solid bottom support for gold prices. On one hand, US Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, and theoretically, high interest rates suppress precious metals; on the other hand, geopolitical risks and global debt concerns continuously boost market demand for safe havens. These two forces keep competing, resulting in a resilient gold market. In the short term, ETF funds have not seen large-scale outflows, indicating institutions have not collectively cashed out at high levels. The current contradiction is very clear: high interest rates are the biggest upward constraint on gold prices, but safe-haven and de-dollarization buying are providing support. It is difficult for gold prices to experience a one-sided surge; more likely, the trend will be a steady upward oscillation. From an operational perspective, chasing gains at high levels is not suitable; buying on dips offers better cost-effectiveness. Going forward, focus on observing turning points in US Treasury yields. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 📊Gold $XAU ｜Bitcoin $$BTC ｜Ethereum $$ETH lines have been drawn. Personal market view: Bearish bias below the key long-short level, mainly bearish on pullbacks; if the previous low is not broken on the second test, consider bullish on pullbacks as a secondary strategy. This is only a record of technical levels and does not constitute investment advice. 🏅Gold $XAU Resistance above: First resistance: 4503 Second resistance: 4565 Third resistance: 4643 Long-short watershed: 4461 Support below: First support: 4397 Second support: 4331 Third support: 4282   ₿Bitcoin $BTC Resistance above: First resistance: 78423 Second resistance: 79397 Third resistance: 80589 Long-short watershed: 77790 Support below: First support: 76975 Second support: 76264 Third support: 75752   ΞEthereum $ETH Resistance above: First resistance: 2489 Second resistance: 2534 Third resistance: 2566 Long-short watershed: 2423 Support below: First support: 2383 Second support: 2356 Third support: 2306 Summary of view: Price is below the long-short watershed, prioritize bearish on rebounds; Only if the second test does not break the previous low, consider buying on pullbacks with strict risk control. Brothers, are you leaning more bullish or bearish now? $UNI $ETH Is $UNI fully circulating? Is there inflation? Is it deflationary? Let's clarify all at once! 1️⃣ Regarding whether it is fully circulating, we look at Binance app and CMC's web page, which give two different numbers Binance app: Circulating 890 million, total 890 million CMC web: Circulating 620 million, total 890 million The difference is that CMC counts 270 million in the treasury as non-circulating because these are not circulating in the public market Conclusion: The core issue is the definition of "circulating"; traders need to be clear about the difference in definitions 2️⃣ Is there inflation? Currently, from public information, Uniswap has two inflation mechanisms First, the treasury allocates 20 million tokens annually to Uniswap Labs to support ecosystem development, vested quarterly; this has already happened, but note this is not an increase in total supply, just a transfer from the treasury to the lab Second, the total supply can increase by 20 million tokens annually, but this is only a proposal and has not been implemented yet, so it has not actually occurred 3️⃣ Is it deflationary? Uniswap can burn tokens according to protocol revenue; this has happened. Currently, the total token supply is 890 million, while at TGE it was 1 billion Conclusion: Whether it is fully circulating depends on the definition; the token has both inflation and deflation mechanisms, and whether it ends up deflationary or inflationary depends on the combined effectAs crypto treasury companies expand to this stage, index eligibility has ironically become a new barrier. Previously, the market viewed them simply: if a company buys BTC or ETH, its stock price acts like a leveraged asset proxy. But as more of these companies emerge, index providers start asking a cold question: are you really an operating company, or just a fund disguised as a listed company? This question is critical. Whether you can enter the index determines if you get passive capital, affects liquidity, and also whether valuation discounts will widen. I think the next phase for crypto treasuries is no longer about "who buys more," but "who can be recognized by traditional markets." The balance sheet can be aggressive, but the rules won’t bend just because your conviction is strong enough. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 Self-Assessment of Risk Level Before investing, first assess your own risk level, clearly understand which category you belong to, and then match the corresponding position strategy. Do not copy others' configurations. The assessment revolves around four major dimensions: capital, psychological tolerance, time and energy, and cognition. 1. Capital Risk Assessment (Top Priority) 1. Is all the invested capital disposable money? Even if all is lost, it does not affect living expenses, mortgage, or family spending. • ✅ High Safety: Losing 50% does not affect daily life at all • ⚠️ Medium: Losing 20% causes real financial pressure • ❌ High Risk: Using living expenses, loans, or leveraged funds to enter 2. Psychological Tolerance for Drawdowns Facing market fluctuations, ask yourself: • If BTC or ETH drops 40-60%, can you hold on without panic selling? • When speculating on altcoins, if there is a 30-50% unrealized loss, will your mindset collapse, leading to continuous averaging down and stubborn holding? • ✅ Low Risk Tolerance: Insomnia during big drops, frequently checking prices, anxious emotions → reduce speculative positions, increase BTC and ETH allocation, avoid contracts • ✅ Medium Tolerance: Can accept about 40% unrealized loss and follow disciplined dollar-cost averaging • ✅ High Tolerance: Can accept over 50% unrealized loss, strictly execute stop-loss, and have the ability to control impulses Do not overestimate yourself. Many people equate "wanting high returns" with "having high risk tolerance," which is the biggest misconception. Wanting high returns ≠ being able to withstand losses.In the afternoon, BTC rose 0.6%, and SOL rose 1.4%. I'll note this 1 percentage point lead first, but I won't yet consider it a recovery for altcoins. Before 14:00, BTC was around $77,800, ETH about $2,404, with similar gains; SOL hovered near $100.8, showing greater volatility. Looking only at the 24-hour gains, it's easy to mistake high volatility for independent strength. From now on, I will focus on two actions. When BTC continues to move sideways between $77,000 and $78,000, can SOL hold above $100? When BTC falls again, can SOL/BTC decline less? If both happen, funds might continue to shift toward higher volatility assets. If SOL quickly falls back below $100, this lead looks more like a short-term rebound. For my altcoin positions, I will watch for sustained relative strength; a single bullish candle is not enough. Data source: OKX. Personal record, not investment advice. $SOL $BTC 【Nonfarm Payroll Bomb Explodes Tomorrow Night! Will BTC Rise or Fall? Here's My Strict Prediction】 Only 12 days left until the Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting. The August nonfarm payroll data released tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time) is the most critical factor in deciding whether to cut or raise interest rates. 🚨 First, let's look at the data: The US job market is trembling · July nonfarm payrolls -23,000 (expected +83,000, a disastrous miss, negative growth) · May and June cumulative revisions -103,000 (employment growth confirmed to be inflated) · August ADP +38,000 (expected 47,000, weakening for two consecutive months) · ADP weekly pulse data rose for two consecutive weeks but is only half as strong as at the beginning of the year In short: The cooling signals in the job market are very clear; it depends on whether the official data tonight acknowledges this. 📊 My strict prediction (probability inference) Scenario A: <50,000 (25% probability) → BTC +2~4% rate cut celebration Scenario B: ≈70,000 (40% probability) → BTC +1~2% mild rebound [highest probability] Scenario C: 90,000-120,000 (20% probability) → BTC -1~2% under pressure Scenario D: >120,000 (15% probability) → BTC -3%+ rate hike clouds return My answer: The highest probability is a "weak rebound around 70,000," a "data that shows improvement but remains weak," which is mildly bullish for BTC. ETH is consolidating with slight volatility today, showing a bit more weakness compared to BTC in the short term, but funds have not significantly withdrawn. The key for Ethereum now is not just the “main chain narrative,” but whether stablecoins, RWA, L2 settlement, and institutional capital can continue to form a positive cycle. Recently, several large financial institutions have been preparing US dollar stablecoin projects, and market attention to on-chain financial infrastructure has increased again. ETH remains an important anchor in this main theme. In the short term, watch volume and on-chain activity; if both improve, market sentiment is more likely to warm up. $ETHBrothers, the non-farm payrolls tonight might really shake things up! Yesterday, the ADP small non-farm payrolls actually added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, signaling a cooling in employment. Tonight, the market expects non-farm payrolls to add 55,000 jobs. Let me break down three scenarios for you. First, non-farm payrolls below 55,000. Employment continues to weaken, rate cut expectations rise, the dollar comes under pressure, and BTC has a chance to rally. But if it already rose during the day, the positive news might be priced in by night, leading to a pullback after a spike. Second, non-farm payrolls exceed 55,000. If employment reverses and strengthens, rate cut expectations get delayed, the dollar strengthens, and BTC needs to be cautious of a rapid plunge and stop-loss hunting. Third, data close to expectations. No obvious surprise, BTC will most likely continue to fluctuate. Looking at ETH, it has repeatedly hit resistance near 2500 before falling below 2400. Now it can't break below 2300 or above 2600, continuing to trade sideways. My ETH short position is still open at an entry price of 2438, currently slightly profitable. My simple thought: as long as ETH doesn't break below 2300, I won't take profits for now. Brothers, do you think ETH will break below 2300 this time? Tell me in the comments if you're bullish or bearish! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Thursday, 2026.09.03 Tomorrow the non-farm payroll data will be released, but currently the non-farm data only serves as an auxiliary reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The new Fed chair has refocused policy anchoring back to a single inflation target. This statement is directly related to the recent intense volatility in the bond market and the asymmetric risk-reward situation of the 10-year US Treasury yield—the market's reaction to the data will be asymmetric. Mild data may not suppress rate hikes, but hotter data will quickly make a September rate hike the baseline scenario. On September 2, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $101 million. Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $48.2 million. Robinhood's on-chain Meme token trading remains hot, with on-chain fees reaching $3.75 million in the past 24 hours, exceeding the combined fees of Solana, Ethereum mainnet, and Base chains during the same period. Market Analysis After falling in tandem with US stocks, Bitcoin has rebounded, with support again found around 76,000. This level is very strong and is likely the bottom of this correction. However, the sideways consolidation time is still insufficient. If it can rally in the next two days, that would be good; if it drags into next week, the daily-level divergence will become quite severe, making a breakthrough difficult. Hopefully, there will be a big move in the next two days. The longer it drags on, the more unfavorable it is for subsequent gains. Trump is again calling for US stocks to rally. The US stock market had been performing poorly, but this call has brought some momentum back. However, the overall trend of the Nasdaq remains weak, and it is better to wait for bottom-fishing opportunities. Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed) INSTITUTIONAL BTC BUYING IS BACK Corporate treasuries are stepping in again. Strategy, Strive, and BitMine have collectively deployed $700M+ toward $BTC , while ETF flows continue to swing between heavy inflows and outflows. The bullish case: corporate accumulation reduces available supply and signals renewed institutional confidence. The risk: much of this buying depends on equity-market financing, so it may not last if stock valuations weaken. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops The Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has passed Article 3 of the relevant bill, proposing to charge maritime, environmental protection, insurance, security, and, in special cases, fuel supply service fees to vessels permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Fees can be paid in rials or other currencies designated by Iran. On the surface, it looks like a service fee. But looking deeper, this is Iran re-emphasizing one thing: The Strait of Hormuz is not just an international waterway, but also a strategic chip in Iran's hand. And the context in which this is happening is not easy. Currently, shipping through Hormuz is already severely affected, and Iran has recently expanded the blacklist of prohibited vessels. So what really deserves attention is not how much this toll will ultimately collect. But if shipping companies start factoring this fee into insurance, fuel, and transportation costs, who will ultimately pay? The shipping companies? Energy enterprises? Or consumers worldwide? Geopolitics often doesn't appear directly on your bill, but in the end, it often really does. $BTC $ETH $DOGE : The moment I started taking Dogecoin seriously was when I realized its UTXO model, shared with Bitcoin, offers surprisingly robust security and simple scripting. Combined with its inflationary supply and low fees, it's practical for small, frequent transfers. Most meme coins lack any technical foundation, but Doge has a decade of uptime. That longevity and straightforward design make it more resilient than people assume.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops 比特币这两天回调了不少，从8.1万附近一路跌到7.5万一线，跌了差不多5000点。市场上喊抄底的有，喊熊市的也有。今天这篇不喊单也不贩卖焦虑，只把逻辑讲清楚：这波为什么跌、7.5万是不是底、到底该怎么接。 先看这波为什么跌。技术上，本质是短期涨太多之后的获利兑现，上涨途中的回调是必要过程，蹲得下去才能跳得更高，单看K线大趋势并没有坏。但真正决定这波会跌多深的，是宏观传导链——最近油价冲得很凶，WTI逼近91美元、布伦特站上95美元，美伊冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡通航明显收缩，最新只有4艘商品船通过，远低于过去10天平均约13艘，商业原油库存单周还降了450万桶。这条链一旦走实，影响是层层传导的：油价长时间站在90到95美元上方，通胀更难降，美联储更难放松，美债收益率维持高位，BTC和高Beta山寨币整体承压。所以这波回调不是孤立的技术调整，背后是「油价→通胀→利率→风险资产」这条传导链，看懂它，你才知道7.5万这个位置为什么重要。 那7.5万到底是不是底？技术面看，BTC的实际支撑大约在74400附近，很多大户在这里挂了买单，所以7.5万出头是接下来最值得盯的位置。但接近支撑不等于可以直接接🔥$ETH price is pretending to sleep at 2400, mainnet idling at 0.13 gwei, institutions repeatedly jumping around the ETF gate Today Ethereum is around $2390–2401, briefly dipping below 2400 during the session but quickly recovered, down about 1%–1.3% in 24h, the trend feels like a Monday morning meeting: people are here, but their minds are still on the weekend. Even funnier is on-chain — sampling twenty blocks on September 2nd, L1 base fee is only 0.1332 gwei, burning about 38.7 ETH daily; since the merge, the daily average burn is about 1391 ETH, now only 2.8% remains, equivalent to a diet plan changed to "nibbling a leaf of lettuce every day." All transactions have moved to Arbitrum/Base/Optimism L2s, where fees are just a few cents, users are happy, mainnet is idle, ETH burning is like the company’s paper quota: nobody uses it, but the boss thinks it’s saving costs. The funding side is also schizophrenic: some days spot ETH ETF sees continuous inflows, other days net outflows of tens of millions; on September 3rd, the overall outflow was about 48.2 million, BlackRock’s ETHA withdrew, ETHB topped up, Fidelity’s FETH also pulled out; translating this means institutions are not "steady dollar-cost investors," but "adding a drumstick today and checking the bill tomorrow." Adding to that, the three macro bosses slammed the table: 10-year US Treasury yield about 4.79%–4.81%, Brent crude around 95.6, WTI about 91, September rate hike probability 66%–70%, for an interest-free high beta employee like ETH, the boss’s shout makes it bow first. $ETH $CORE was originally expected by the market to open deposits and withdrawals at 11 o'clock, but now the maintenance time has been postponed to 5 PM. This indicates that the hard fork adaptation work did not go as smoothly as anticipated; the exchange's on-chain verification and balance reconciliation have not been completed, so they dare not recklessly open deposits and withdrawals to prevent asset confusion, accounting errors, and the like. The community's expectation that the crisis would be resolved soon has been directly dashed, and short-term sentiment will be frustrated. Even if deposits and withdrawals open as scheduled at 5 PM, the on-chain coin-earning staking products will still be offline and will not resume. Two realistic scenarios for the market: Short-term negative sentiment: funds expecting the unblocking of deposits and withdrawals may choose to wait and see or even sell, which could easily bring a wave of selling pressure. If deposits and withdrawals successfully open at 5 PM: there will be another round of game-playing. On one hand, bottom-fishing funds will enter the market; on the other hand, profit-taking chips from on-chain vulnerabilities will flood into exchanges to dump once deposits and withdrawals open. If the delay continues past 5 PM, market confidence will further collapse. $CORE [September 3rd Six Major Risk Predictions] Part 2 - **Sixth Major Risk: AI Capital Expenditure Bubble**. Dell / Broadcom / Nvidia earnings exceeded expectations, Credo plummeted 20% indicating supply chain divergence, global bond market sell-off suppresses high-valuation growth stocks, if AI investment ROI falls short of expectations, a Davis double kill may occur. In a "three lows and three highs" environment of low growth (global 3.3%) + high inflation (oil price 91+ PCE 3.7%) + high interest rates, combined with multiple escalations of the US-Iran conflict + global bond market sell-off resonance + Japan's financial stability risk, global financial market volatility will remain high, with tail risks significantly rising. - After hawkish Wash and hawkish Barr, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is 62.3% (slightly declined), with at least a 25bp hike in December at 88%; the Bank of Japan's September rate hike is almost fully priced in — **the synchronized tightening expectations of the world's two major central banks, combined with soaring oil prices + geopolitical conflicts + global bond market sell-off, constitute the biggest current macro risk combination.** - Any additional shocks (Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Japan's 10-year yield stabilizing above 3%, Waller's ultra-hawkish stance today, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls / CPI, emerging market crises, AI capital expenditure slowdown) could trigger severe adjustments in global financial markets. [September 3rd Six Major Risk Predictions] Mid-section - **Third Major Risk: Japan's Financial Stability**. The 10-year yield continuously breaks above 3%+ the entire curve hits new extremes (30-year historical high at 4.194%) + triple hit on stocks, bonds, and forex + 96.4 billion intervention failure + September rate hike almost fully priced in. Japan may become the trigger point for a global bond market crisis, and yen carry trade unwinding could impact global markets. - **Fourth Major Risk: Oil Prices → Inflation → Rate Hike Spiral**. WTI at 91.01 + Brent at 95.63 + EIA inventory sharply down by 4.5 million barrels + Beige Book warns of energy uncertainty. If this continues, it will push up September CPI, strengthening the Fed's September rate hike (currently 62.3%, slightly down from 66.9%). - **Fifth Major Risk: Marginal Deterioration of U.S. Commercial Real Estate**. July CMBS delinquency rate at 7.86% (+51bp) + August industrial/hotel distress spreading + 100 billion due + U.S. 10-year at 4.816% refinancing pressure + Japanese institutions may sell overseas assets. The stock-bond game has entered a new phase, and the stocks in hand may need to be revalued. The global bond market is undergoing a domino-style sell-off, with yields soaring all the way. The impact of this on the stock market is more profound than most people imagine. The logic is simple: as the risk-free rate rises, the attractiveness of stocks naturally declines. Previously, money placed in banks earned almost no interest, so everyone had to go to the stock market to seek returns; now, with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5.5%, earning high interest passively, who would still be willing to take risks to speculate on overvalued stocks? More importantly, the discount rate is rising. The essence of stock valuation is the discounting of future earnings; the higher the interest rate, the less valuable future money is when discounted to the present. Especially for tech growth stocks, whose earnings are mostly far in the future, they are most heavily suppressed by high interest rates. But there is another side to this. Bond coupons are rising, providing a price buffer. If yields break through 6.4% within two years, the nominal total return could turn negative—bonds are becoming the "ballast stone" of asset allocation again. What does this mean? The old pattern of "stocks up, bonds down; stocks and bonds see-saw" over the past decade or so may be changing. In a high interest rate environment, a double hit to stocks and bonds is possible, and the logic of asset allocation needs a complete rewrite. Stop looking at the new market with old perspectives. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance The boss has something to say Broadcom and Snowflake have reported their results. Broadcom's Q3 revenue was 29.5 billion, exceeding expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue at 16.7 billion. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below analyst forecasts, causing the stock to initially drop 6% after hours before narrowing the decline. Snowflake's performance is even stronger. Product revenue increased 37% year-over-year, AI coding tool CoCo's active accounts surged to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with shares rising 21% after hours. Dell just raised its AI server guidance, and Broadcom and Snowflake followed to confirm it. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software. But the market is also raising its expectations for delivery speed, and missing guidance targets results in immediate punishment. $BTC $ETH $SOL The AI hardware-to-software chain is being connected, but whoever moves faster captures the premium. Continuing to hold short positions on ZEC, targeting 600 to 650. Holding no position on Bitcoin, waiting for a pullback. Gold ETFs are still increasing holdings, adding nearly 10 tons yesterday. The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.[September 3 Six Major Risk Predictions] Part One - **Current Biggest Risk: Global bond market sell-off resonance (Bloomberg index hits highest since 2008)**. US 10-year intraday at 4.816% (highest at the end of 2023) + Japan 10-year continuously above 3% (3.015%) + 30-year Japanese bonds hit historical highs + UK 10-year at 5.255% (highest since 2008) + Germany/Australia 10-year at 15-year highs + Bloomberg index at 3.72% (highest since 2008) + Wall Street Journal warns of "out-of-control bond market." Major economies simultaneously hitting multi-decade extremes, global asset pricing logic is changing. Japan's 10-year bond staying above 3% for two consecutive days is a key alert; if it stabilizes above 3%, it may trigger global bond market panic and yen arbitrage unwinding. - **Second Biggest Risk: Multiple rounds of US-Iran conflict escalation + Strait of Hormuz control dispute**. Trump "ready" to strike again anytime + two oil tankers hit mines + Iranian unauthorized vessels increased to 57 + Iranian parliament speaker "US must fulfill commitments before reopening the strait" + Guterres calls for ceasefire. Both sides have completely opposite statements on control of the strait (Iran "full control" vs US "17 million barrels passing through"), actual situation unclear. Sudden escalation or strait blockade could push oil prices beyond 100-150 USD, triggering a global energy crisis + soaring inflation + aggressive rate hikes + risk asset crash. #21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin Wall Street finally can't sit still. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and 21 other top global financial institutions jointly announced: a joint venture company will be established in the second half of 2026, and a USD stablecoin will be launched in the first half of 2027. The goal is clear—cross-border payments, institutional clearing, digital asset settlement, covering both wholesale and retail. This is not a trial run; it's a move to take a slice of the pie. The global stablecoin market is about $301 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.3 billion and USDC about $73.3 billion. If banks don't issue their own, this money will completely flow out of their control. Why act now? Three reasons. First, the GENIUS Act was signed in 2025 and will take effect in January 2027. Full reserve, segregated custody, regular audits—this is a tight constraint for Tether but a moat for banks. Second, money is flowing out. Standard Chartered estimates stablecoins may be drawing about $500 billion from U.S. bank deposits. Third, going it alone doesn't work. Société Générale issued a USD stablecoin last year, but circulation was only $12.5 million. So the group expanded from 10 institutions last October to 21 now, alongside a Euro alliance of 37 institutions and over 140 pushing Open USD. The market will stratify: the compliance layer will serve institutions and cross-border needs, while the crypto layer will continue as trading pairs and offshore dollars. When big fish enter the pond, the water gets murky, but old anchors don't rust themselves. Banks entering the market is a long-term positive, but for USDT it means a reshuffling of market share, not a death sentence. XRP led the gains today My conclusion: XRP is bullish, but chasing now has an average risk-reward ratio. The market sees XRP rising nearly 3% today, while the spot ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, attracting about $170 million, which easily leads to the conclusion that "institutions are accumulating." But I’m more concerned about a contradiction: money keeps flowing in, yet XRP hasn’t recovered its previous losses. Currently priced around $1.36, still nearly 20% below the recent high of $1.70. This indicates ETF buying exists, but supply above is also strong. My plan is simple: Hold 1.31–1.33: remain bullish. Hold above 1.40–1.42: only then consider trend confirmation. Break below 1.31 and fail to rebound above: bullish view invalidated. The ETF tells us someone is buying, the price tells us if those buys are truly winning. Right now, I see capital entering, but no breakout yet.Brothers, another important macro data point is coming tonight at 8:30 PM. The previous unemployment claims figure was around 203K, while the market is currently looking for approximately 207K. Let’s break down three possible outcomes and how they could affect the crypto market. 1️⃣ Claims > 207K — Higher Than Expected 📈 If the number comes in noticeably above expectations, it could signal some cooling in the labor market. That may strengthen expectations for easier Federal Reserve policy and p$CL Trump wants to rename the Strait of Hormuz? The "bluff" oil price rally is back, bears please accept this big gift Trump has spoken again. This time, his target is not the Gulf of Mexico, but the global energy lifeline—the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, Trump recently stated publicly that the U.S. should consider "renaming" the Strait of Hormuz because "American interests flow there." Although he did not provide a specific new name, based on his usual style, some speculate it might be "American Strait" or simply "Trump Strait." Once the news broke, the oil market responded with a rebound. WTI crude oil surged over $1 in the short term, and Brent approached $72 again. However, just a few hours later, most of the gains were given back, and prices returned to the weak range below $70. This typical "sharp rise and slow fall" pattern is the script most familiar to crude oil short sellers. 1. Strait of Hormuz: The "throat" of the global oil market, but renaming changes nothing First, some basic facts: The narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz is only 33 kilometers wide, yet it is the passage for about 20% of global oil consumption and about 25% of liquefied natural gas trade. The vast majority of crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE pass through this waterway. It is an irreplaceable node in the global energy security system. Trump’s claim to rename it sounds like a geopolitical bombshell, but in reality, renaming cannot change geography, shipping lanes, or the supply-demand balance. It will neither make Iran give up partial control of the strait nor reduce the miles Saudi oil tankers travel. This is purely a linguistic "territorial claim" with no practical operability. 2. The calculation behind the bluff: divert attention, create leverage, maintain image Trump has always been adept at using exaggerated statements to create news highlights. When domestic economic data is poor, approval ratings drop, or other political pressures arise, throwing out such sensational "renaming" remarks can quickly dominate media headlines and divert public attention from real troubles. At the same time, this is also a negotiation tactic. By showing "interest" in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump can send a signal to Gulf allies: the U.S. still holds the discourse power over energy channels, and you need to keep buying American weapons and paying protection fees. This "art of the deal" is seen by him as leverage, but to oil market participants, it’s just noise. 3. Why can’t oil prices "rise"? Because fundamentals are rotten Bluffs can ignite emotions in minutes but cannot change medium-term trends. The current crude oil market faces dual pressures on supply and demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ production cut discipline has long been nominal. Several member countries overproduce for fiscal revenue, U.S. shale oil production remains high, and non-OPEC countries continue to increase output. The global crude oil supply "tap" is fully open. On the demand side, China’s crude oil imports have been negative for several consecutive months, new energy vehicles are rapidly replacing fuel vehicles, Europe’s economy is on the brink of recession, and the U.S. summer travel peak has ended. Weak manufacturing PMI data means industrial oil demand continues to shrink. Regarding inventories, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks have accumulated beyond expectations, and OECD inventories have returned above the five-year average. The monthly spread between Brent and WTI has shifted from spot premium to futures premium, a classic signal of oversupply and bearish forward outlook. Faced with such fundamentals, Trump’s renaming remark is not even a "drop in the bucket." The brief emotional lift it provides is precisely the best window for bears to add positions. 4. The essence of the bluff rally: giving bears leverage Looking back at the oil market over the past few months, almost every rebound triggered by geopolitical rhetoric has ended in failure. Iran tensions, Red Sea attacks, OPEC+ meeting rumors... each caused pulse-like rallies but without exception gave back all gains and hit new lows. The reason is simple: none of these events truly changed physical supply and demand. Trump’s renaming remark is even less of an "event"—it’s just a concept. The market quickly realizes the Strait of Hormuz is still the Strait of Hormuz; neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia will adjust production because of a name change, nor will China buy an extra barrel of oil because of it. When emotions subside, prices return to where they came from. Bears’ job is to lay short positions at the crest of the emotional wave and wait for the tide to recede. 5. Trading insight: rebound to key resistance, shorting remains a high-probability strategy Technically, the WTI 20-day moving average is running downward near $70, and the $70–71 range has become strong resistance. Brent faces heavy pressure above $73–74. The descending triangle pattern is clear, with lower highs and continuously refreshed lows. MACD on the daily chart repeatedly shows bearish divergence, indicating weakening rebound momentum. If Trump’s renaming bluff triggers another oil price rebound to the resistance area mentioned above, it will be a rare entry opportunity for short sellers. Stop loss can be set just above resistance, with targets down to $65 or even lower. Of course, any short strategy must consider risk. If a real supply disruption occurs—such as the Strait of Hormuz actually being blocked—the short logic will instantly collapse. But so far, there is no evidence that such an extreme scenario will happen. Trump is just talking, and the market has learned not to pay for every word he says. Don’t be distracted by political theater; the trend is your only friend Trump wanting to rename the Strait of Hormuz, just like when he wanted to rename the Gulf of Mexico, is essentially a political show. The spotlight of the show can briefly attract attention but cannot illuminate the real supply and demand dilemma of the crude oil market. For bears, the emotional rebounds caused by such rhetoric are less a threat and more a gift. They allow you to build short positions at more favorable levels and provide a clear stop loss reference. Remember: bluffs don’t change inventories, and renaming doesn’t increase demand. I previously did $EDGE. To be honest, my impression of this coin is just average. Because this coin had a sudden drop before, and no particular reason was given at the time. In my impression, in the on-chain perpetual contract sector, only this coin has experienced this; no other coin has ever had such a thing. So, I don't really want to play this coin, because I'm worried it might suddenly crash again. —————————————————— I don't really want to play this coin, but some friends might want to. Let me share my thoughts on it. That is, if it doesn't cause trouble, what kind of future trend could it be? Let's look at its candlestick chart. We can see that this coin also rebounded once in July, but was quickly pushed down shortly after it jumped up. Personally, I think this time it's very likely to be plugged in. This coin has experienced many crashes before, so I always felt that the market makers didn't have a big pattern, starting to cut as soon as retail investors entered. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that during its rise, its contract long-short ratio keeps decreasing, while contract open interest keeps increasing. This means there is a lot of money shorting in the market. Let's look at data over a longer period. The data over a longer period is similar: the contract long-short ratio is decreasing, while contract open interest is rising. This also confirms that there is indeed a lot of money shorting in the market. ———————————ARB 0.128. Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking. Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show. Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow $UNI Regarding $UNI, three key points to focus on 1. The narrative has shifted from a DEX to a blockchain liquidity operating system 2. Protocol revenue is used to burn $UNI, so the token's value is related to revenue, rather than being a governance token without real significance 3. Although 20 million new tokens are issued annually, based on the revenue from the past 30 days, it is deflationary (annualized burn exceeds 20 million) Of course, currently the protocol revenue is highly correlated with the RH chain, so the main focus going forward is whether Uniswap's revenue can continue to grow$170 million worth of ETH transferred into exchanges, but I won't short immediately My conclusion: There is short-term selling pressure on ETH, but I won't chase shorts near 2450. What the market most easily sees is: a whale address transferred about 70,700 ETH to multiple exchanges, worth approximately $174 million, so it is directly interpreted as "the whale is going to dump." But transferring to exchanges only confirms potential selling pressure; it doesn't prove the coins have been sold. More interestingly, on the other side: BitMine official data shows ETH holdings increased from 5.85 million to 5.9 million over a week; the US ETH ETF also continues to see consecutive net inflows. So what I am watching now is how the price digests this potential supply. If 2400 holds: I remain biased bullish. If 2550 holds: bulls take the initiative again. If 2400 breaks and the price fails to rebound above it: I will clearly turn bearish. Whale transfers are not the answer; the price reaction to whale holdings is the answer.Valuing crypto assets without cash flow is indeed a brain teaser; the traditional DCF model is outright useless. Switching perspectives, treat them as digital gold or rare collectibles, pricing based on scarcity, network effects, and storage costs. The valuation logic of $BTC resembles hard assets the most—look at its hash rate (computing power security) and number of holding addresses, which is equivalent to miners anchoring value behind the scenes. For public chain tokens, consider their ecosystem transaction volume, total value locked (TVL), and developer activity; these metrics indirectly reflect "use value." Also, Metcalfe's Law applies: the more network nodes, the value grows quadratically. On-chain active addresses and transaction counts are key. Market consensus is also crucial, such as brand recognition, community size, and celebrity endorsements. Though subjective, they support premium pricing. Another approach is the replacement cost method: the electricity cost plus equipment depreciation to mine one $BTC sets the baseline support. The most pragmatic method is to grade assets: those with ecosystem income are estimated by PE ratio; pure Meme coins shouldn’t be valued, just traded based on market sentiment. Remember, for things without cash flow, don’t use P/E ratio to frame them; tell the story with market share and growth rate, but keep in mind—they are always risk assets.Banks are starting to take stablecoins seriously. Recently, 21 financial institutions were reported to be planning to establish companies to launch US dollar stablecoins. This signal is actually more worth paying attention to than a certain coin suddenly rising 50%. In the past, people used stablecoins mostly for trading, DeFi, and cross-border transfers. But now the logic is changing: stablecoins may gradually shift from being the "dollar within Crypto" to becoming a true on-chain payment and settlement infrastructure. If banks and enterprises start using stablecoins for settlement in the future, the way users manage assets will also change. Before, we opened bank apps to manage US dollars. In the future, we might directly open wallets to manage US dollar stablecoins, RWA, crypto assets, and even have AI Agents help you complete payments. So the future competition among wallets might no longer be about "how many chains they support." What really matters is whether it can understand your intentions and help you judge assets, chains, fees, and risks. Banks entering stablecoins does not necessarily mean Web3 is being replaced by traditional finance. On the contrary, it might mean: Traditional finance is moving more and more assets onto the blockchain. And wallets could very well be the first point of contact for ordinary users with these assets.
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