Orbit Post Sitemap
The whole network is shouting again: BTC spot ETF continuous outflows, institutions are running
But outflows do not mean Wall Street no longer wants Bitcoin. Within the same outflow, there are at least four groups of money:
First is money following the market trend. After three weeks of gains, on September 3rd, more than $700 million flowed in a single day. Now, with CPI and interest rate decisions approaching, positions are being reduced first; this is reducing volatility, not necessarily bearish sentiment.
Second is money switching products. Grayscale's fees are high, funds have been flowing out for years, switching to cheaper similar funds. Like selling coins, it's actually just repackaging.
Third is hedging money. Spot ETFs paired with futures for hedging, profiting from price spreads. When spreads change or interest rate decisions approach, both sides unwind together, also showing as outflows. These people are not betting on price direction.
Fourth is truly bearish money. It exists, but daily outflow numbers can't distinguish these four groups. Seeing red numbers, don't assume it's all the fourth group.
Outflows don't mean other routes to buy coins are closed, similar to Strategy companies hoarding coins without daily subscriptions and redemptions.
$ETH, $SOL, and $BTC are not the same batch of money. BTC spot ETF outflows about $120 million.
ETH inflows $35 million, SOL inflows $12 million, mostly into stakable products.
Buying BTC is non-yield hedging; the latter two partly aim for on-chain yields.
Looking at the timeline: tens of billions flowed in over three weeks, continuous outflows reflect CPI and interest rate decisions. This year ETFs still have net outflows, but prices have recovered from deep drops. Money in and out and price movements are not always the same switch.
Remember one thing: continuous ETF outflows only indicate short-term money is reducing positions.
First watch tonight's inflation data to see how September's interest rate decision is priced.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 Air Force, has it really won?
Currently, it looks that way on paper. BTC, $ETH, ZEC, and Dogecoin have all been hammered down from their highs, and the bears have indeed made a killing. But the attribution is wrong: this drop is not due to Trump's failed promises, but because of PPI exceeding expectations, oil prices breaking 105, 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5.3%, and the probability of a rate hike rising to 70%. With risk-free yields rising, funds are withdrawing from crypto, ETFs are seeing outflows, leveraged liquidations are causing a stampede, and even Dogecoin can't escape the meme sector's valuation kill.
Trump promised $5,000 per person, totaling over a trillion dollars, which requires Congressional approval and faces a huge fiscal gap; Polymarket estimates the probability of this happening at about 86% denial. But if it really happens, injecting a trillion-dollar stimulus into a high-inflation economy could reignite inflation, government debt, and yields, potentially causing the bears to be counterattacked by liquidity. So the short positions win in the short term, winning on macro tightening, not on political promises.
Just take the promises with a grain of salt; what really matters is the Federal Reserve and the $40 trillion debt. If BTC breaks below 77,000, it could drop to 74,000; if the Fed turns dovish, both $DOGE and the bears could instantly reverse.#OpenAI联手三星研发下一代AI芯片 OpenAI's head in South Korea confirmed that they are collaborating with Samsung to develop the next generation AI chip, but the details of the cooperation have not been fully disclosed yet. With computing power demand continuously exploding and risks of a single supply chain growing, OpenAI urgently needs to establish a second supplier, hoping Samsung can implement the 2nm process to reduce dependence on existing chip manufacturers. This cooperation is not just a technical joint development; there is also a commercial game behind it involving order exchanges for production capacity to alleviate supply risks caused by capacity constraints and geopolitical factors. The news has directly ignited market sentiment in AI chips, advanced process technology, and the HBM memory industry chain. However, chip development cycles are long, and from project initiation to sample production and then to mass production, there are many uncertainties. At this stage, the market is more expectation-driven. Mapping this to the crypto market, the AI computing power narrative will boost sentiment for AI sector tokens in the short term, but the overall market direction is still controlled by U.S. interest rates and regulatory policies. A single industry benefit is unlikely to reverse the overall trend. Do not blindly chase related targets based solely on cooperation news; focus on tracking process debugging progress and mass production timelines, and manage your positions carefully. The more useful signal may be diesel, not crude. With the US average at $5.98 a gallon and Brent near $108, the question is how long shipping disruption keeps pressure on fuel costs.
My read: a prolonged Red Sea disruption would make this harder to dismiss as a brief risk premium. The duration of the constraint matters more than the initial price jump.
#RedSeaRiskOilReturns100 The useful signal is the split in demand. Bitcoin spot ETF outflows followed a $1.01B inflow streak, while Ethereum ETFs still drew capital. That looks more like selective risk-taking than a broad retreat.
With oil above $100 and yields rising, my read is that sustained inflows would carry more weight than a single rebound day in judging whether appetite is holding up.
#BTCSpotETFOutflows #BTC现货ETF连续流出
$BTC signal is coming Going all in once is not as good as planning ahead
BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days: about $46.6 million on September 8 and $120.2 million on September 9, totaling approximately $167 million. This time it's not just Grayscale; ARKB had a single-day outflow of $78 million, GBTC outflowed $27.2 million, and even BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of $19.5 million. Compared to a single-day net inflow of over $730 million on September 3 and nearly $1 billion absorbed in the entire previous week, the buying suddenly hit the brakes.
However, it's still too early to say institutions are running away; overall ETF inflows since September remain positive, and earlier purchases far exceed these recent outflows. What concerns me more is that this change coincides with the price—BTC struggles to hold above 80,000, and ETFs have shifted from aggressive buying to continuous outflows, indicating institutions are starting to hesitate.
My own feeling is that ETF buying has been the most stable support for this BTC rally, and now this support is loosening, which is more worrisome than the price itself. If tonight's CPI data comes in hotter again, BTC will face not only interest rate pressure but also the risk of losing even its most stable buyers. The 80,000 level now seems less about breaking through and more about confidence—institutions are no longer chasing, retail leverage is heavy, and there's not enough fuel to push higher. Let's watch tonight's data and see if ETFs flow back or continue to exit tomorrow; these two signals are more honest than candlesticks.#OpenAI teams up with Samsung to develop next-generation AI chips OpenAI's head in South Korea confirmed externally that the company is jointly developing a new generation of AI chips with Samsung, but the two parties have not disclosed complete cooperation details. The demand for computing power for large model training and inference continues to expand, and the risk of relying on a single chip supply chain is becoming increasingly prominent. OpenAI intends to make Samsung an important second chip supplier, hoping to run the 2nm process and reduce dependence on the existing supply chain. This cooperation is not only a technical joint development but also includes commercial considerations of order swapping capacity to alleviate TSMC's capacity tightness and supply risks caused by geopolitical factors. The news directly benefits the entire industry chain of AI chips, advanced processes, and HBM storage, boosting sentiment in computing power-related sectors. However, it needs to be viewed objectively: chip development cycles are long, and from project initiation to product launch and mass production, there are many uncertainties. In the short term, it is mostly expectation-driven. For the crypto market, the AI computing power narrative will indirectly boost sentiment for AI sector tokens, but coin prices still follow the macro environment of the broader market. AI benefits are unlikely to independently counteract pressures from interest rates and regulation.#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ Listed companies' crypto treasury camps show clear divergence. Holding similar funds, companies have taken two completely different paths. Strive continues to firmly increase its BTC holdings, spending about $109 million last week to buy 1,375 bitcoins, raising its position to 24,531 coins, continuously leveraging preferred stock financing to increase crypto-denominated assets, representing a typical strong long strategy. Meanwhile, Strategy chooses to temporarily pause new bitcoin purchases and instead uses funds to buy back preferred stock, no longer hoarding coins indefinitely. Behind this divergence is a change in the financing environment. When issuing shares to buy coins causes equity dilution and rising financing costs, continuing to increase BTC holdings would dilute the per-share coin value, making buybacks a more pragmatic capital operation. Neither choice is absolutely right or wrong: one side bets on bitcoin's long-term value, prioritizing expansion of crypto asset balance sheets; the other prioritizes protecting shareholder rights and improving the company's capital structure. Treasury companies' actions indirectly affect market sentiment. Continuous accumulation can create buying expectations for BTC, while large-scale buybacks indicate corporate doubts about current financing cost-effectiveness. However, treasuries are only one type of market capital; ultimately, the market is still jointly driven by macro interest rates, ETF funds, and regulatory policies.#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 According to the Financial Times, the Central Bank of Iran has relaxed foreign exchange controls, allowing domestic exporters to use BTC, USDT, and other crypto assets via domestic exchanges to recover overseas trade revenues. The recovered funds can also be directly used to pay for import goods. Under ongoing US sanctions, Iran's access to foreign exchange channels is limited, and crypto assets have become a supplementary tool to bypass some dollar settlement restrictions. However, this does not mean BTC has officially been upgraded to an official international settlement currency. This policy mainly serves foreign trade enterprises for payment collection and is a localized policy, not an open crypto trading freedom for the entire population. It is unlikely to bring a large volume of incremental buying in the short term. The market needs to distinguish between emotional speculation from the event and real capital inflows. The news release may cause a market pulse, but it is difficult to independently reverse the overall market trend. Currently, the dominant forces in the crypto market remain US CPI data, US Treasury yields, the CLARITY Act, and other macro and regulatory variables. Iran's policy more so represents the practical needs of some sanctioned countries for crypto settlement, reflecting the potential application space of crypto in cross-border trade. This event is a medium- to long-term industry catalyst and can only create emotional fluctuations in the short term, so excessive optimism should be avoided. Bitcoin has dropped below $77,000. The pricing has already gone through a round of adjustments: PPI, oil, $100, long-term interest rates. CPI is just a confirmation, not the starting point.
Note the mismatch: the FOMC on the 16th cannot see the August PCE, which will be released on the 30th. The meeting can take action first, but the market still needs to read the revision again.
First, see if $76,000 can hold. $82,000 is still a wall.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #FOMC #MarketAnalysis#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 CLARITY alternative amendment announced, Bassett calls on the Senate to advance it
On September 10, Loomis released a 630-page CLARITY alternative amendment. The new version incorporates over 114 demands from the Democratic Party, improves the registration rules for non-decentralized DeFi protocols, and further clarifies the regulatory boundaries for various crypto entities. Bassett publicly urged the Senate to accelerate the bill's implementation. This alternative amendment attempts to bridge the partisan divide, but internal struggles remain, and the final vote is approaching. If the bill passes smoothly, the U.S. crypto industry will gain a clear compliance framework, institutional barriers to crypto market participation will be reduced, and it will be a medium- to long-term positive for the industry; however, in the short term, it will bring regulatory uncertainty, and the market will repeatedly speculate on the bill's passage probability. If the amendment vote is blocked, the regulatory path will return to ambiguity, and market sentiment will be hit again. Currently, the crypto market is simultaneously affected by macro interest rates and bill news—on one side, liquidity pressure from CPI and U.S. Treasury yields; on the other, regulatory expectation disturbances from the CLARITY bill. News of the bill will periodically disrupt ETH and DeFi-related tokens, with the DeFi sector being more sensitive to regulatory policies. The final outcome of the bill is full of uncertainties; the attitudes and vote negotiations of bipartisan lawmakers will influence the result, so it cannot be simply judged as purely positive.Market data hides a contrast: mainstream coins slightly rebound, but funds are quietly withdrawing from small coins
The entire network is focused on the rebound gains of BTC and ETH. As soon as BTC turns green, everyone shouts that funds are flowing back and the bull market is restarting. However, few pay attention to the trading volume and fund flows of individual coins, where a completely opposite truth is hidden.
Currently, BTC and ETH have slightly closed in the green for recovery, attracting many short-term funds into mainstream coins. But at the same time, funds continue to flee from previously hyped small coins; targets like IOST and BEAT face concentrated selling pressure, and overall small coin holdings are being liquidated and exited.
Here are two completely different groups of funds:
Mainstream funds are mostly risk-averse and swing speculative funds; they temporarily return to play the rebound when the market stabilizes;
Funds fleeing small coins are short-term speculative funds that cash out at highs during slight market recoveries and do not stay in thematic tokens, so this is not reflected in BTC market cap gains.
For $SOL, the logic is different. In this round, the fund absorption strength of SOL is clearly stronger than most altcoins. Some funds in SOL follow the market swing trading; meanwhile, pure MEME and niche thematic coins lack fundamental narratives, and buying is just short-term emotional speculation. When the hype fades, the price is dumped and funds flee.
Market insight: A short-term rebound in BTC only represents the return of risk-averse funds and does not mean all funds are bullish. Only if incremental off-exchange funds enter and mainstream plus thematic funds return simultaneously will a broad-based rally occur. Otherwise, the existing competitive environment continues, and even if BTC slightly recovers, small coins will continue to diverge and weaken.
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
$BTC $ETH $SOL 13F filings suggest the institutional picture is more complex than ETF flows alone. While BTC spot ETFs faced Q2 redemptions, hedge funds and family offices reportedly increased exposure through OTC deals, pushing institutional holdings 7.5% higher QoQ. ETH attracted even stronger interest, helped by staking yields. ETF outflows don’t equal broad institutional selling. Falling Treasury yields could become the catalyst for renewed accumulation and a stronger crypto rally.#PPIHotCPINext The real direction of $BTC is not at the moment CPI is released, but whether the market is still willing to continue buying risk after the data. If inflation pressure rises but US Treasury yields spike then fall back, it indicates that the pricing of bad news may be nearing its end; if yields and the dollar strengthen simultaneously, the $BTC rebound looks more like a technical breather. Next, I’m only watching two signals: whether BTC can maintain relative strength, and whether $ETH and $SOL stop falling further. Mainstream resistance and #PPI higher than expected, tonight’s CPI will set the direction. High volatility assets warming up is the real risk appetite recovery; if all three weaken simultaneously, the position reduction before the FOMC is not over yet. Behind ETF Redemptions: 13F Hides Institutional Accumulation Signals
The market watches BTC spot ETF daily subscriptions and redemptions, shouting "institutions are fleeing" when net outflows appear. However, the SEC's 13F report provides the opposite clue: during large ETF redemptions in Q2, hedge funds and family offices quietly bought $BTC via OTC, with private equity total holdings rising 7.5% quarter-over-quarter.
These two types of capital have different characteristics. The ETF side mostly consists of trend-following funds and pension allocations, redeeming when the market fluctuates; the 13F side is more long-term and contrarian, often accumulating in batches during pullbacks and moving coins into cold wallets off-exchange, so this is not reflected in ETF flows.
The $ETH logic is richer. In Q2, private equity exposure growth to ETH outpaced BTC, with some funds attracted by staking yields; BTC does not generate yield, so buying it is more like pure allocation, hedging against dollar and U.S. Treasury risks.
Market Insight: ETF outflows only indicate one type of capital exiting and do not mean institutions are unanimously bearish. If U.S. Treasury yields fall, both types of capital may resonate, strengthening the market; if macro conditions remain hawkish, private equity hoarding alone is unlikely to drive a sustained rally.$LINK
Can the fundamental narrative offset capital withdrawal when macro pressures rise?
The US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, and the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.95%. Such an environment increases funding costs and suppresses the valuation of high-volatility, long-duration assets.
Even if LINK continues to expand oracle and cross-chain applications, new demand is needed to transmit the narrative to the token price.
If on-chain usage grows but LINK continues to weaken relative to ETH, value capture remains unconfirmed; if macro pressures ease and it can first increase volume to recover from the weak zone, fundamentals may then become the dominant variable again.#红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 On September 10, the risk to Red Sea shipping further escalated as Houthi forces continued attacks on vessels along the Red Sea and Saudi energy facilities. The security situation for energy transportation is deteriorating, and supply concerns are spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices have stabilized above $107, returning once again to the $100-per-barrel range. Geopolitical conflicts are pushing up crude oil prices, which will transmit through the industrial chain to PPI and CPI, directly exacerbating inflation stickiness in the U.S. The August PPI data had already risen beyond expectations. If oil prices remain high, it will put enormous pressure on the Federal Reserve and further raise market expectations for a rate hike in September. Rising oil prices are driving up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar simultaneously, creating a scenario where both stocks and bonds suffer. Risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies will face macroeconomic headwinds. For the crypto market, high oil prices do not directly translate to bearish coin prices, but they indirectly increase rate hike expectations and compress market liquidity. The current core focus remains tonight's U.S. CPI data. If inflation readings again come in hot, combined with Red Sea geopolitical disturbances, rate hike expectations will further ferment, and market volatility will sharply increase; if CPI data cools down, some of the inflation concerns caused by oil prices will be partially offset. The Red Sea situation is highly unpredictable; conflict escalation or easing are both possible. Geopolitical news can disrupt oil prices at any time, indirectly affecting the crypto market. During this event window, it is crucial to avoid heavy bets on one-sided outcomes, as geopolitical black swans are difficult to predict. The US, Japan, and Europe are all tightening liquidity, PPI signals red again—BTC is held at 76,000 waiting for the CPI verdict
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
#PPI and CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces a critical two days
Before tonight's CPI release, the market was first hit by the PPI.
As of September 11, the US August PPI year-on-year rose 5.4%, exceeding expectations, core month-on-month up 0.2% slightly lower; once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 60% to 70%.
More troublesome is that the tightening is not just by the Federal Reserve: Japan's probability of a rate hike next week was pushed to 97% by swaps, and Europe has already raised deposit rates to 2.5%. This means three hands are tightening the faucet simultaneously, yet BTC has withstood the PPI blow first.
But don't rush to say the bad news is over. The market's strong holding does not mean the risk is gone—the rise in US Treasury yields means the holding cost of non-interest assets is becoming more expensive in real time. Tonight's CPI is the real verdict.
In the short term, looking at the CPI blow: if it's hot, the 76,000 support will be tested; if cooling, there will be room for sentiment recovery. In the long term, global synchronized tightening is the bigger trend.
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH #10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise 10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and surged to 5.4% year-on-year, with energy prices jumping 4.2% in a single month, directly pushing the market's probability of a September rate hike to 70%. Service prices only increased by 0.1%, indicating inflation pressure is concentrated in energy and commodity sectors. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to approach the critical 5% mark; even with Treasury repo operations, it is difficult to suppress the yield increase. High oil prices combined with a rebound in production-side inflation have led the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rising US Treasury yields will increase global funding costs, strengthen the US dollar simultaneously, and suppress risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. On the crypto market side, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, institutional funds' risk aversion is rising, and in a high-yield environment, risk asset valuations are naturally under pressure. Currently, all market attention is focused on tonight's CPI data. If CPI again exceeds expectations, inflation stickiness will be confirmed, US Treasury yields will likely stabilize above 5%, September rate hike expectations will further ferment, and the crypto market will face greater selling pressure; if CPI data cools significantly, inflation concerns will ease, yields will have room to fall, and risk assets will get a breathing window. In the short term, before a clear turning point in US Treasury yields appears, risk assets are prone to repeated pressure, market volatility will intensify, and one should not lightly bottom-fish to bet on a reversal Oracle and Adobe’s earnings reactions reveal a changing market mindset: Investors are becoming less impressed by AI headlines and more focused on whether those investments are producing real sales, stronger margins, and sustainable cash flow. Oracle: AI Demand Is Turning Into Business Oracle’s latest quarter showed revenue of approximately $19.8 billion, up around 28% year-over-year. Cloud infrastructure revenue continued growing at a rapid pace, while management lifted its FY2027 revenue outloo#BTC现货ETF连续流出 BTC spot ETFs continue to see outflows, are institutional funds withdrawing?
The US BTC spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $167 million on September 8-9, with a single-day outflow of $120 million on the 9th, mainly dragged down by large redemptions from ARKB. Only MSBT recorded a slight inflow of $4.49 million across the entire market. External macro pressures are rising simultaneously: Brent crude oil surged 6.3% to $107.63, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5%, and the market's probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 49% to 71.3%. Inflation concerns are resurfacing, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising, directly suppressing risk asset valuations. Continuous ETF outflows indicate that some institutions are choosing to cash out and exit, which is a bearish signal that cannot be ignored in the market, but it is not sufficient alone to determine a trend reversal. A large portion of this round of outflows comes from ARKB's active redemptions, while most other funds have not experienced panic-driven large-scale escapes, indicating structural differentiation in capital. Currently, the market is a two-way game between macro interest rates and on-chain funds; rising rate hike expectations will continue to suppress crypto assets. If ETF outflows continue to be large and sustained, combined with further rises in US Treasury yields, BTC will face greater downward pressure; if outflows quickly converge, the market is expected to maintain range-bound oscillation. Tonight's CPI data will be an important watershed; overheated inflation data will further push up rate hike expectations and amplify the negative sentiment caused by ETF outflows; a decline in inflation will ease macro pressures.Oracle and Adobe’s earnings reactions highlight a major shift in market expectations: Investors are no longer rewarding companies simply for mentioning AI. They want to see real revenue, stronger margins, and a clear path to profitability. Oracle: AI Demand Is Becoming Revenue Oracle’s latest results showed revenue of approximately $19.8 billion, up around 28% year-over-year. Cloud infrastructure revenue continued expanding rapidly, while management raised its full-year revenue outlook to roughl#财报观察员: Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121% Earnings spectacle! Oracle AI cloud revenue surged 121%, positive news triggers a rise and fall
Oracle's latest earnings report is out, with AI cloud business revenue up 121% year-over-year, retail revenue also significantly exceeding market expectations, remaining performance obligations continuing to rise to $664 billion, orders continuously fulfilled, and AI computing power business visibly booming. However, the capital market showed a typical positive news realization pattern, with the stock price surging to $168 intraday, then quickly plunging, bottoming at $154, and closing fluctuating between $158 and $161. The performance data is impressive, but the stock price rose and then fell, mainly because the optimistic expectations for this round of AI had already been priced in. After the earnings release, some funds chose to take profits, with profit-taking concentrated, directly suppressing the market. Now the market's evaluation criteria for AI companies are changing; pure high growth is no longer enough to continuously drive stock prices. Funds are starting to more rationally assess order sustainability, capital expenditure costs, and profit quality. Looking at the entire AI industry chain, the performance of upstream cloud providers will also indirectly affect optical modules and computing hardware sectors. If major companies maintain high capital expenditure momentum, the mid- and downstream industry chain can continue to receive orders; once expansion slows, downstream companies will face valuation adjustment pressure. Currently, the macro environment is compounded by the Federal Reserve's rate hike uncertainty, and U.S. tech stocks are simultaneously constrained by earnings and interest rates, so positive news may not necessarily drive a one-sided rise. #BTC现货ETF连续流出 On the 9th, 120 million yuan flowed out, and on the 10th it expanded to about 280 million. The money that had just been injected in the previous weeks has been partially withdrawn in recent days.
Institutions are acting decisively with these fluctuations—if they can't rise, they reduce their positions first, not lingering on the market. In the short term, liquidity has indeed cooled a bit, but don't forget, cumulative net inflows are still above 55 billion, and structural demand hasn't dissipated. This pace feels more like a phased portfolio adjustment rather than a complete shift.
Next, it depends on whether the outflow can be quickly controlled. Only after holding back can the price be confident to try higher.
$BTC ⚠️ Gold is fluctuating between 4350-4450, and the market is waiting for the CPI to set the direction. Many people predict a slight decline in inflation, giving the Federal Reserve a pause on rate hikes, firmly believing that gold and silver will not hit new lows, with a long-term bullish outlook and a short-term recommendation to wait and see.
However, there is a clear misconception here: inflation data will not be deliberately beautified for the election; even if rate hikes pause, the high real interest rates still suppress gold prices, so there is no guarantee that new lows won't be reached. The correlation between BTC and gold is only temporary, and the market can diverge at any time.
Macroeconomic data-driven volatility can suddenly amplify, so do not lock in a one-sided bullish expectation in advance. It's fine to choose to wait if you can't see the market clearly, but you should also prepare for a downside breakout scenario. $BTC $RAY remains one of the more established DEX tokens in the Solana ecosystem, and its major vesting schedule was completed back in 2024. That means traders aren't facing the same kind of recurring team-unlock pressure seen with many newer tokens. But there’s another side to the story. RAY has a 555M maximum supply, while only around 269.5M RAY is currently circulating. So although scheduled vesting is no longer the main concern, the market still needs to absorb a relatively large overall supply b#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction. US August PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, with energy and commodity prices pushing up producer inflation; core PPI month-on-month at 0.2%, slightly below expectations. After the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, and the market raised the pricing for a Fed rate hike in September. The European Central Bank simultaneously raised rates by 25 basis points and revised up inflation expectations for 2027-2028, explicitly stating that the Middle East situation is a major risk for rising inflation. As a leading indicator for CPI, rising producer inflation implies rebound pressure on consumer inflation. Tonight at 20:30, US August CPI will be released, followed by the preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations at 22:00. These two data sets, combined with the PPI results, will directly influence the inclination of the September 16 FOMC meeting. Current oil price risks cannot be ignored: WTI stands above $103, Brent approaches $108, Red Sea ports were attacked, and Middle East geopolitical disturbances continue to threaten crude oil supply. High oil prices will transmit downward along the industrial chain, further increasing inflation stickiness. The crypto market is currently in a rotation of existing funds, with severe coin differentiation, high-level tokens experiencing sharp declines, some coins erupting short-term, and huge long-short divergences. If tonight's CPI again exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be fully priced in, and high-leverage positions face concentrated liquidation risks; if CPI meets expectations, the market will maintain intense volatility, leaving suspense for next week's dot plot; if CPI cools significantly, risk assets will have a window for recovery. End #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction Global black swan strikes! Oil prices break 100, CPI battle, stocks and bonds plummet, when will this turning point arrive?
On September 10, global markets collectively turned "all green," behind which was the largest scale oil tanker attack since the war began, directly triggering international oil prices to break through the $100 psychological barrier. Brent crude oil prices quickly surged from 99 to 101, directly hitting global bond and stock markets.
Previously, Iran twice attacked US warships with ballistic missiles, and the US immediately sank 5 Iranian oil tankers. Iran retaliated by striking 10 ships, including 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers and merchant ships. This is the largest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began 6 months ago, accelerating the deterioration of the situation. Oil prices jumped in response, and global risk assets collectively came under pressure.
The current core contradiction has shifted from a single geopolitical conflict to a triple pressure resonance:
1. Geopolitical side: Both the US and Iran face peak pressure since the war began. With only two months left until the US midterm elections, oil prices and living costs are the voters' top concerns. The latest polls show Trump's support rate at only 33%. The American public has been tormented by high oil and living costs for half a year, and dissatisfaction continues to rise. Iran is also facing the strictest US economic blockade, with oil exports blocked, foreign exchange income drying up, and difficulties importing goods. Domestic prices are soaring, and the IMF expects Iran's inflation to approach 70% this year. Both sides have strong motives for a ceasefire, but the closer to negotiation time, the more tense the situation becomes, with both sides trying to gain more leverage.
🚒 Oil prices break 100 + PPI exceeds expectations! Tonight's CPI will reveal the Fed's hand
US August PPI data released, month-on-month 0.4%, year-on-year 5.4%, significantly higher than market expectations.
At 20:30 tonight, the heavyweight CPI will be released, and at 22:00, the University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations preliminary values will be out. Next week is the Fed's rate decision meeting; these three data sets will directly determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The oil price situation is becoming increasingly severe, with both WTI and Brent surpassing the $100 mark, WTI at 103.04, Brent at 108.27. The Red Sea's Mocha port was seized by Houthi forces, further increasing energy transportation risks. The longer oil prices stay high, the greater the downward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the Fed to pivot to easing.
US stocks have fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day, with the Dow down 0.60%, the S&P down 0.58%, and the Nasdaq down 0.65%.
The market shows clear divergence: Apple surged 3.56% against the trend, boosted by expectations for foldable screen sales; Oracle rose 4.13% after hours, with cloud infrastructure revenue soaring 121% year-on-year, and AI cloud demand remains strong.
$BTC retreated to 76901, down 1.57% in 24 hours.
Oil prices breaking 100, PPI surprise, and rising rate hike expectations collectively suppress crypto prices.
If tonight's CPI continues to exceed expectations, BTC will face short-term downward pressure, targeting the 75000-76000 range below; only an unexpected drop in core inflation can bring the market a brief respite.
The current market is extremely torturous, with risk at a maximum in the game.Thị trường Crypto bước vào ngày 11/9 trong một trạng thái khá đặc biệt. $BTC đang dao động quanh 77.000 USD, còn $ETH quanh 2.450 USD. Cả hai không xuất hiện biến động cực đoan, nhưng phía sau sự ổn định tương đối này là một loạt áp lực vĩ mô đang tích tụ. Một bên là CPI Mỹ chuẩn bị được công bố. Một bên là giá dầu vượt 100 USD, lợi suất trái phiếu Mỹ tiến sát 5% và kỳ vọng chính sách tiền tệ đang thay đổi nhanh. Vì vậy, câu chuyện của $BTC và $ETH hôm nay không đơn giản là giá đang tăng hay giả$CORE deposit and withdrawal landing, both bulls and bears completely missed out, everyone's expectations were dashed!
Many predicted that opening deposits and withdrawals would directly trigger a waterfall drop, so they shorted in advance, but the market did not experience the expected sharp decline.
Some also believed that resuming deposits and withdrawals meant the exchange recognized the project, waiting for a big surge, but the market did not strengthen either.
The market is calm as water, and no delisting announcements have been found recently.
Those who have endured until now and remain in the market have long been accustomed to various news and are not easily swayed by one-sided opinions.
There are countless bullish and bearish voices flying around the market; there is no need to blindly follow others' judgments. Think independently and see clearly the chip game behind the market.
The 300 million excess released chips will be sold off by the project team in batches according to the market's absorption capacity. If buying is strong, they will gradually sell over about half a year; if absorption is insufficient, the release will be extended to two or three years. In the short term, it seems calm, but this chip remains hanging above long-term, still a hidden selling pressure risk.
Without a large amount of continuous capital inflow, it is difficult to break the fixed consensus of "selling whenever there is a slight rise." This current calm does not mean the risk has disappeared; it just has not erupted in concentration yet.
The above is only personal information collation and observation and does not constitute investment advice. PPI is not a bear market switch—it is a liquidity stress test.
$BTC $76.8K, $ETH $2.44K, $SOL $168 came under pressure after PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, with the market pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike. But the real signals lie in the dollar and on-chain: the dollar index surged then retreated, stablecoin supply did not shrink significantly, and BTC perpetual funding rates turned negative.
Technically, $BTC lost MA5/10/20 but remains above MA50; $ETH holds the 4H supertrend; $SOL shows relative strength leadership, while $XRP faces heavier selling pressure. If CPI cools down and US Treasury yields fall, liquidity could quickly rebound.
Is this a risk appetite retreat—or a shakeout before a breakout?
$BTC $76.8K, $ETH $2.44K, $SOL $168 came under pressure after PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, with the market pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike. But the real signals lie in the dollar and on-chain: the dollar index surged then retreated, stablecoin supply did not shrink significantly, and BTC perpetual funding rates turned negative.
Technically, $BTC lost MA5/10/20 but remains above MA50; $ETH holds the 4H supertrend; $SOL shows relative strength leadership, while $XRP faces heavier selling pressure. If CPI cools down and US Treasury yields fall, liquidity could quickly rebound
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC The most tormenting thing now is not the crash.
But the sideways stagnation.
Oil prices surged to $107,
10-year US Treasury yields approach 5%,
market expectations for Fed policy have turned hawkish again,
so capital naturally begins to recalculate the cost-effectiveness of risk assets.
Thus BTC consolidates,
ETF outflows continue,
many people's first reaction is:
"Are institutions starting to withdraw?"
I actually think it's not that simple.
It now looks more like capital is repricing.
With risk-free yields rising,
the opportunity cost of holding BTC naturally increases.
So some institutions reduce positions or wait and see first,
which does not mean a complete exit.
The real key is:
will this capital come back or not.
If after the FOMC,
ETFs see sustained net inflows again,
then the current pullback looks more like washing out short-term chips.
But if after interest rate expectations settle,
capital still refuses to return,
then beware this adjustment turning from a "tactical retreat" into a "trend cooling."
So don't keep staring at a single candlestick guessing tops and bottoms every day.
The real direction of BTC
may be hidden in the capital flows after the September rate decision.
Price is just the result.
Capital attitude
is the answer.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT FORMS OF POWER
$BTC is monetary power — rules that are difficult to change.
$ETH is financial power — capital that can be programmed and composed on-chain.
$SOL is execution power — fast infrastructure designed to handle high-volume activity.
BTC makes value harder to manipulate.
ETH makes value programmable.
SOL makes value move faster.
Different architectures. Different strengths. One evolving financial system. ⚡🧠Wait, don't interpret "BTC/ETH/SOL ETF all flowing out" as a full-scale institutional exit.
According to SoSoValue, on September 10th Eastern Time, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $283 million, Ethereum about $29.8 million, and Solana about $480,000 — but on the same day, XRP spot ETFs actually had a net inflow of about $5.14 million, mainly from Franklin's XRPZ. On one side, large-cap ETFs are redeeming, while on the other, relatively niche categories still see incremental capital inflows: this looks more like risk preference stratification and rotation, not "institutions collectively liquidating crypto."
A common misunderstanding: using the curve of mainstream ETF outflows on a bleeding day to immediately condemn the entire market. What really needs attention is whether the outflow is sustainable, the relatively small size of XRP's capital pool (net assets about $1.45 billion), and whether the spot price has kept pace with the inflow narrative. Publicly organized, volatility can be cross-checked with OKX XRPUSDT perpetual, DYOR, not investment advice.Don't turn blockchain into a "cultivation novel": ACO that can be used daily is truly hardcore 💡
Every day you see various projects boasting in their whitepapers about "interstellar throughput," "dimensionality reduction strike-level algorithms," yet they can't even handle smooth chatting and transfers properly.
The crypto world doesn't need so many mysterious and unfathomable metaphysics.
The logic of ACO / ALD is simple yet deadly:
Bring social and live streaming onto the chain, making you want to open it every day;
Integrate complex cross-chain and trading into the underlying layer, so even beginners can operate blindly;
Generate Gas through real interactions, letting the ecosystem self-sustain instead of relying on air.
Good products speak for themselves, good infrastructure gets users to vote with their feet.
Do you think the current mainstream public chains are making simple things more and more complicated?👇
#ACO #ALD #BlockchainTruth #Web3Apps #MinimalistExperience This weekend, Dogecoin faces a more significant test than the previous two. After two consecutive weekends of rallies, the bulls are about to attempt a "three-peat," but tonight's August CPI stands in the way—the data will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time, just a few hours before the weekend market opens, perfectly timed.
First, let's look at the quality of the rally. Weekend markets are thin and institutional funds have exited, so the price push mainly comes from retail and sentiment-driven traders. This type of capital comes quickly and leaves quickly, indicating a warming speculative appetite but a weak foundation. The gains from the past two weeks have exhausted some buying power; to continue into the third week, new funds need to take over.
Tonight's CPI is that variable. The market expects a year-over-year increase around 3.4%, and this is the last inflation data before the Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting. Last week's nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, showing strong employment and raising expectations for a rate hike. If the CPI exceeds expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets, and $DOGE's weekend rally may run out of fuel; if the data falls, liquidity expectations improve, giving sentiment-driven funds a reason to re-enter.
Therefore, the keyword this week is not "continuation" but "verification." In the first few hours after the data release, volume and price direction will provide the answer. The direction can be guessed, but positions should be maintained. The U.S. Treasury has intervened to repurchase $5.1 billion in U.S. debt, bringing the total repurchases this week to $17.7 billion, setting a historical record for the highest weekly repurchase amount.
Issuing bonds on one hand while aggressively buying back debt on the other—this whole operation makes the entire economic game look like a joke.
Many are still fixated on the expectations of rate hikes or cuts, but the Treasury is already adjusting liquidity through this method. The turning point for liquidity may not actually depend on the Fed cutting rates. Market logic is quietly being rewritten; don’t keep using old perceptions to judge the market. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 $BTC $ETH Core drivers of the decline: triple macro pressures converge simultaneously
① PPI data exceeds expectations (the most direct trigger)
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with core PPI increasing 4.7% over the past 12 months. Previously, BTC briefly rebounded above $79,000, but was hammered down below $77,000 within minutes after the PPI data release.
② US-Iran conflict escalates, oil price breaks $100
The US and Iran launched a new round of attacks against each other, with Iran expanding its retaliation beyond the Strait of Hormuz, attacking oil tankers and intensifying supply disruption concerns. Brent crude oil broke through $100/barrel, and high oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations, reinforcing the tightening narrative.
③ Interest rate hike expectations surge, US Treasury yields hit 19-year highs
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike on September 16 has surged from 42% after Fed Governor Waller's speech to 70%-71.5%. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.353%, the highest level in 19 years. For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, a risk-free rate above 5% means a significantly higher opportunity cost of holding, accelerating capital flow into yield-generating assets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 U.S. Treasury buybacks failed to suppress yields; the real challenge lies ahead
U.S. August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, with energy prices up 4.2%. The market is re-pricing inflation pressures, and September policy expectations have clearly tightened.
The biggest concern is actually long-term bonds.
The Treasury repurchased about $5.19 billion of 10- to 20-year bonds under a $6 billion cap, yet the 10-year yield still surged to about 4.95%, and the 30-year yield reached 5.37%.
In other words, the Treasury is willing to lend a hand, but the market is not buying it.
Because buybacks can improve liquidity of old bonds but cannot solve the deficit and future debt issuance needs.
Not to mention the current discussion of a $5,000-level fiscal stimulus, which naturally makes the market recalculate this equation.
So what really matters now is not just a single PPI reading, but whether the 10-year yield can hold near 5%.
If the long end continues to rise, it won't be particularly comfortable for U.S. stocks and the crypto market.
Especially for high-volatility assets like BTC, once funds start comparing "risk-free returns" again, leverage will naturally be pulled back a bit first.
$CL $BZ $BTC #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The September rate-hike narrative has become much stronger after yesterday’s PPI. Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% chance of a Fed hike next week, so the bar for another hawkish surprise is already quite high. But remember: PPI is only half the story. CPI decides the direction tonight. 🔥 My 3 CPI scenarios: 🟢 Soft CPI / Core ≤ 0.2% → Rate-hike odds could cool rapidly → Dollar & yields may pull back → BTC/ETH could see a sharp relief rally 🟡 CPI around expectations → Expect volatility andBTC spot ETF outflows of about 450 million USD over three days, with the outflow intensifying day by day.
Observed: About -46.6 million on September 8, about -120 million on the 9th, and directly about -283 million on the 10th.
ARKB alone withdrew about 164 million, GBTC and FBTC are following, and IBIT also had net outflows.
At the same time, leverage is unloading — total BTC contract positions on major exchanges cut by about 840 million USD.
Simply put, spot is withdrawing, leverage is decreasing, both sides are reducing risk together, not a one-sided sentiment.
I think this looks more like proactive position reduction before CPI, not a bottom-fishing signal yet.
What to do: Don’t add leverage to bet on tonight yet, wait for the data release to see if outflows will expand again; the invalidation condition is a significantly cooler CPI and immediate ETF inflows.
Better to keep positions smaller, don’t treat tonight as a guaranteed rally.
Are you more focused on whether the ETF will continue outflows on the fourth day, or first watching the core CPI?
$BTC $ETH $IBIT
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Up
#BTC现货ETF连续流出PPI exceeding expectations has confirmed upstream pressure.
Only one question remains: Has this pressure been passed on to consumers?
If yes, don't expect dovishness at the September FOMC;
If not, the last rate cut scenario can still play out.
Fed Governor Waller spoke before the blackout period: tonight's figure is the core basis for the rate hike decision.
Focus on three variables: CPI YoY expected at 3.4% (previous value unchanged, but the MoM jump from 0.1% to 0.4% is critical); core CPI YoY at 2.4% (previous 2.5%); super core services inflation (the FOMC's main focus).
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Price Paid Index soared to 72 (highest since September 2022), service inflation has been a stubborn problem for five years. CME September rate hike probability has jumped from 40% to 60%. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, this probability will spike instantly.
Tonight is not a data-driven market, but an expectation game. The number itself is not important; how much it deviates is.
$BTC watershed at 76000, breaking below means further decline, overall market weak
$ETH support at 2360, resistance at 2440, holding this level is necessary for a rebound
$OKB support at 104, linked to the overall market
$HYPE support at 75, I'm waiting for 70, will it get there?
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 On September 11, on-chain monitoring showed that two HYPE shorts on the Hyperliquid platform collectively hold about $40.971 million in short positions, currently with an unrealized loss of approximately $7.964 million.
Last night, the two shorts placed a total of 200 buy orders in the $64–77.77 range, totaling about $33.953 million, planning to gradually cover their shorts as the price falls.
First address: starting with 0x939f
- Holds about 240,500 HYPE short positions, with an average opening price of $62.50, unrealized loss about $4.09 million
- Placed 100 buy orders in the $70.1–77.77 range, totaling about $17.698 million, enough to cover all short positions
Second address: starting with 0x37b8
- Holds about 274,800 HYPE short positions, with an average opening price of $65.41, unrealized loss about $3.875 million
- Placed 100 buy orders in the $64–72 range, totaling about $16.255 million, covering about 87.3% of the short positions
The two sets of orders were mainly created last night, with some adjustments still made this morning.
HYPE is currently priced at about $79.51, only about 2.2% away from the nearest $77.77 buy-back order; if the price falls near $72, the second short’s large-scale covering plan will enter the execution range.
The two major shorts are enduring huge unrealized losses and have not directly liquidated but instead pre-placed layered buy orders waiting for a pullback to close positions, reflecting the strategic thinking of large holders. The last big bullish candlestick in a bull market is often the day retail investors get the most excited.
There is a harsh rule in the crypto world: a real big market move never tells you in advance that it’s ending; instead, it makes you more and more confident.
Your account hits new highs every day, your social circle starts showing off profits, and the group chat is full of “there’s still a 10x coin,” “fivefold by year-end,” “this time is different.” You begin to think it’s not just luck, but that you really understand the market.
The danger starts at this very moment.
Why do many people make tens of times their money in a bull market but end up not profiting? Because they only add positions when prices rise and never reduce them; they only fantasize about profits and never realize them.
What experts actually do is simple: they prepare a profit-taking plan in advance.
Sell part of BTC when it reaches the target, sell part of ETH at its target, and do the same for SOL, SUI, OKB. It’s not about clearing out your holdings but taking profits in batches so the gains truly belong to you.
Don’t try to sell at the absolute peak. The highest point is only known in hindsight. When everyone says “it won’t fall,” the risk actually grows larger.
Remember this: in a bull market you earn opportunities; in a bear market you protect wealth.
In this cycle, treat “taking profits” as part of your trading, not something you regret only after a crash. The ones who truly survive bull and bear markets aren’t those who predict best but those with the strongest discipline.
Don’t let a bull market give all your profits back to the market.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB #欧意 #欧意星球 #cryptocurrency #bullmarketprofit-takingAfternoon gossip: The calendar marks "Golden Cross Confirmation Day," yet the price has fallen from above 80,000 to around 77,300.
Fact side: The 50-day EMA is approaching a crossover above the 200-day EMA, the first window since the death cross in November 2025; however, the US spot BTC ETF has seen outflows of about $450 million over three consecutive days, and mainstream BTC OI has decreased by about $840 million over seven days. Fear & Greed index dropped from 69 to 56, still in Greed.
Judgment: The golden cross is a lagging moving average indicator, while deleveraging reflects current positions. When the macro window opens (CPI tonight, FOMC next week), don't treat technical signals as a one-way ticket.
Next focus: Whether the golden cross is truly confirmed, whether ETF outflows continue, and support at 76k. No trading calls.
Which statement do you trust more?
A The golden cross is valid; the pullback is just noise
B Macro factors take priority; the golden cross will be realized later
C Watch spot support, not moving average headlinesUnder the current sentiment-driven environment, every decimal point of tonight's CPI will undoubtedly be magnified. The market currently expects the overall US August CPI to rise by +0.4% month-over-month, with the core CPI up by +0.2%. Therefore, the key focus is whether the core CPI significantly exceeds 0.2%. The war has escalated, oil prices have surged, and the market already knows where the risks lie. The significance of the CPI is to inform the market whether these energy costs have started to enter US consumer prices, which determines whether the market will further bet on rate hikes.
Moreover, although yesterday's PPI overall did not exceed expectations, subcategories like energy, aviation, and medical services are not easing. Price pressures have already reached the production side, and the market has entered a policy tipping point on whether inflation is out of control. This is why today's CPI is so important.
In addition, there are two other particularly important data points that need to be considered together:
First is the US 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects the market's most genuine response. If CPI is high but the 10Y yield falls, it indicates the market may have already priced it in; if CPI is high and the 10Y yield directly surges to 5%, that will be a real risk signal.
Second is the oil price, because if only the CPI rises, the market can still interpret it as August's data; but if oil prices continue to stay above $100, that means past data plus future variables are both worsening, which is the scenario macro traders fear the most#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 如果这波反弹只是少数币在撑场面，那么真正该盯的就不是涨幅，而是谁还愿意冒险。 你有没有发现，热闹好像只发生在几个名字身上？ 我这两天看盘的感觉很微妙。BTC 和 ETH 没有崩，但也没有那种"我准备好了"的劲。它们更像在维持体面，而不是主动进攻。原文作者说它们装硬、拖了几天，涨不动也舍不得跌，这个描述其实挺准的——市场不是没有方向，而是风险偏好没有真正扩散。 关键变化在这里：如果资金只敢回到 BTC、ETH，说明大家还在防守，只是从恐慌换成观望。可如果 ZEC 这类老叙事、隐私板块、高波动标的开始被反复拿出来交易，那说明一部分资金已经不耐烦了，愿意往更边缘、更刺激的地方试探。原文里对 ZEC 的情绪很真实，亏过、不服、想空它，这种个人恩怨其实常常是市场情绪的影子：当一个标的让人又爱又恨，往往意味着分歧在放大。 偏多的路径是：BTC、ETH 横住不破，给山寨留出表演窗口，ZEC 这种高弹性品种先动，带动一小撮风险偏好回来，然后才轮到更广泛的山寨补涨。偏空的风险是：主流币迟迟不选方向，边缘币的活跃只是短线资金在互相收割，一旦 ZEC 冲高回落，情绪会更快收缩，BTC 和 ETH 反而变成最#InterestRateHike #CPI $BTC
Are we entering an interest rate hike cycle now? What is everyone afraid of?
The last bear market for Bitcoin and the US stock market in 2022-2023 was during the most aggressive interest rate hike year in US history, with rates rising from 0% to a peak of 5.25% in just 14 months.
It was also the year with the sharpest spike in CPI data. As is well known, due to the massive liquidity injection during the pandemic, the highest CPI in the last cycle reached 9.1, which also fueled the super bull market of 2021.
The 2022-2023 period was the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in history.
Bitcoin decline: -77%
Nasdaq decline: -37%
Figure 1 shows the 2022-2023 interest rate hike data, with very dense intervals and magnitudes of hikes, which is simultaneously reflected in Figure 2 showing Bitcoin and US stock market trends. The bear market duration, the smoothness, and the magnitude of the declines were quite significant.
But as of September 11, 2026, the latest US CPI is: 3.4% (latest CPI data to be released tonight), and the latest interest rate is: 3.5%, which is very moderate. The rate market has already priced in expectations of 2 or 3 rate hikes in the coming year. As long as we do not truly enter an interest rate hike cycle—such as one lasting a full year or with an additional 5 percentage points hike—macroeconomic factors are just noise. Surely no one really believes the US will keep hiking rates up to 10 points, right? That would mean the empire is in serious trouble.
To reiterate:
As long as we do not enter an interest rate hike cycle, two or three rate hikes should be treated as noise, nothing to worry about. Cherish the pullback opportunity in September.#10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, but the market doesn't seem to fully buy into it.
The Treasury is conducting repos on long-term bonds, theoretically providing market support, yet yields continue to climb.
I feel the market's focus now is not just on whether interest rates are high, but on how much debt the US will issue in the coming years.
Inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, fiscal spending hasn't stopped, and the debt scale keeps growing. Looking at these factors together, it's hard for long-term capital to be completely at ease.
For the crypto market, this is actually a rather interesting phase.
On one hand, US Treasury yields nearing 5% will indeed divert some risk capital; on the other hand, if the high yields reflect increasing debt pressure, some funds will seek alternatives outside of US Treasuries.
Recently, gold has performed well, and BTC has also done nicely. I think this is somewhat related to this macro backdrop.
In the past, people liked to compare BTC with the Nasdaq, but now more and more are starting to discuss BTC, gold, and US Treasuries within the same framework.
This shift itself might be more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.
$BTC $ETH $OKB