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The latest earnings from Oracle and Adobe are sending a much clearer message to the market: AI alone is no longer enough to drive a stock higher. Investors want proof that AI is translating into contracts, revenue, cash flow and sustainable growth. 🔹 Oracle $ORCL Oracle delivered a powerful Q1 FY2027. Revenue reached $19.3B, up 30% YoY, while total cloud revenue climbed 62% to $11.6B. The real standout was Cloud Infrastructure: 🚀 $7.4B revenue 🚀 +121% YoY 🚀 $664B remaining performance obligaOn the Eve of the CPI Release｜Conspiracy Theory Speculation: The U.S. Treasury's Debt Script
With the CPI about to be revealed, the market is circulating a rather imaginative speculation about the U.S. debt operation. Let's take a look at this conjectured logic behind the U.S. debt maneuver.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently made frequent public statements. Some believe there is an internal strategy within the Treasury aimed at lowering the real debt burden of outstanding government bonds. The scale of U.S. federal debt is enormous, and long-term bonds carry a heavy interest burden. If the Treasury takes advantage of the sharp drop in long-term bond prices to repurchase and retire them, it would be equivalent to settling a huge amount of long-term debt at a discount. The same amount of U.S. dollars can buy bonds with a higher face value, directly reducing interest expenses for decades to come.
To push long-term bonds down to cheap prices, inflation data needs to strengthen, boosting market expectations for rate hikes. As interest rates rise, long-term bond prices will come under downward pressure. The full conjectured script is: deliberately tolerate inflation, maintain high interest rate expectations, use market sell-offs to push down long-term bond prices; once the Treasury's repurchase task is largely completed, switch to a narrative of rate cuts. On the surface, this operation allows the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to perform their respective roles while preserving the Federal Reserve's policy independence under Chair Powell.
Of course, this is just a market conspiracy theory speculation, not an established fact. In reality, the Treasury's primary responsibility is to ensure the smooth issuance of government bonds. Artificially creating inflation is extremely costly; uncontrolled inflation would undermine the dollar's credibility and carry social and political costs.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Bitcoin is under pressure as the market enters the sensitive zone ahead of the September 15–16 Fed meeting. After the higher-than-expected PPI, the focus shifts to the US CPI: if inflation continues to persist, yields and the USD may maintain pressure on risk assets, including BTC and altcoins. The notable point is the reaction of money flows. BTC, ETH and many altcoins are diverging instead of moving in the same direction. This shows that the market does not have a clear consensus on risk appetite. With crypto at this time, the story is not$WLD's rise this week is not due to the revival of AI narratives; it's because a company actually put real money on the line!
Eightco Holdings (Nasdaq ticker OCTO) announced a $250 million private placement, making $WLD its primary reserve asset. BitMine added another $20 million. After the deal closes on September 11, the company will be renamed "ORBS."
A publicly listed company has put a cryptocurrency on its balance sheet — that's far more substantial than any KOL hype, okay!!
The fundamentals are also supporting this: in the past week, 530,000 new verified users were added, the largest increase in months, with a total of over 33.5 million verified.
But the price hasn't kept up: after hitting 0.5058 on September 8, it steadily fell to 0.4006, dropping 2.57% today, breaking below the MA20 (0.399) and the 60-day high of 0.5058.
In my opinion, the company's coin purchase is news, not sustained buying pressure. We need to see how much they bought and whether it's locked. 0.395 is short-term support; today's low already touched 0.3946. If it can't hold above 0.45, it will still be a rebound.#10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
The US Treasury implemented long-term bond repo operations, with a repo scale of $5.187 billion this time, not reaching the upper limit, resulting in limited support for the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to surge, approaching the 5% mark. Coupled with previously strong PPI inflation data, the market worries about inflation recurrence, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations remain high.
US Treasury yields rising is bearish for non-interest-bearing assets like gold. As the risk-free rate rises, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, combined with a stronger dollar, gold prices face short-term pressure.
The crypto market also bears liquidity tightening pressure. Currently, BTC is quoted around $77,380, slightly up by 0.17%. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, and its price is very sensitive to liquidity changes. With rising US Treasury yields, funds prefer stable US Treasuries and may withdraw from the crypto market, increasing short-term correction risks for $BTC. The market's focus will next be on CPI data. If inflation cools and rate hike expectations fall, US Treasury yields may decline, allowing room for rebounds in gold and Bitcoin. However, if inflation remains strong and the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes above 5%, risk assets will continue to face pressure. US Treasury yields will be the core macro theme influencing gold and crypto market trends in the near term.If the rate hike is implemented in September, followed by a gradual economic slowdown and inflation no longer heating up again, gold may usher in a recovery window after the full digestion of tightening expectations. The recovery in the market requires two major preconditions: first, the market's expectations for continued rate hikes stabilize and decline; second, the suppressive forces from real interest rates and the US dollar index marginally ease. On this basis, if gold ETF holdings rise simultaneously and incremental funds enter the market, the capital foundation for the recovery will be more solid.
However, it should not be simply understood as "the rate hike implementation means all bad news is priced in." If inflation remains high and real interest rates continue to rise, even if this rate hike has been executed, gold prices will still face pressure, and one should not blindly bottom-fish to bet on a reversal.
Looking at the longer time dimension, central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, global foreign exchange reserves diversify, combined with geopolitical conflicts and the demand for fiat currency credit hedging brought by US fiscal expansion, these remain the core medium- to long-term support logic for gold. This round of gold price correction does not overturn these underlying logics, but short-term volatility will significantly increase.
In practical terms, those who already hold gold positions can review their portfolios against their asset allocation targets; those planning to build new positions should prioritize dollar-cost averaging and phased buying to reduce timing risk and gradually build gold exposure that matches their risk tolerance.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the logic can be interconnected. If rate hike expectations peak and fall, and real interest rates decline, BTC and other non-yielding hard assets will also welcome an improved macro environment. But if inflation remains stubborn, even after one rate hike, the high interest rate environment will continue #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 比特币在突破八万美元关口后，并未选择一鼓作气继续上攻，而是温和回撤至七万八千美元附近进行整固。这种走势在突破关键心理价位后并不罕见，更像是市场在消化前期涨幅，而非趋势逆转的信号。与此同时，以太坊的表现相对稳健，稳稳站在两千四百美元上方，为整个市场的结构性健康提供了一层缓冲。 真正值得关注的亮点，其实藏在资金流向的细节里。就在这轮回调期间，现货比特币ETF在八月二十五日单日录得了约三亿一千四百三十万美元的净流入，以太坊ETF也吸引了约一亿七千九百八十万美元。更早之前的一周，比特币ETF累计流入高达十九亿二千万美元，以太坊ETF则收获了六亿九千七百万美元。这些数字放在一起，勾勒出的画面非常清晰：虽然价格在喘息，但机构资金的脚步并未停歇。 这种“价格回调、资金进场”的组合，往往透露出市场参与者结构的变化。短线交易者或许在八万美元上方选择落袋为安，但长线配置型资金似乎正利用这难得的波动窗口，以相对从容的价格逐步建立仓位。ETF作为合规、透明的通道，其流入数据本身就是机构情绪最直观的体温计。当这类资金的节奏与价格走势出现短暂背离时，通常意味着市场底部支撑正在被悄然加固。 不过，我们也需要保持一份Interpreting CPI should not rely solely on year-over-year figures; the focus should be on the month-over-month core CPI excluding food and energy, tracking the stickiness of housing and service prices, and assessing whether energy price increases have spread to all categories of goods. PPI is used to observe upstream production costs and can also be used to infer components of the PCE price index. A single year-over-year decline is easily affected by base effects; only continuous month-over-month trends can truly determine the extent of easing inflationary pressure. In July, overall PCE was up 3.7% year-over-year, core PCE 3.3%, with monthly data already showing marginal improvement.
If CPI again exceeds expectations, the market will raise rate hike expectations, and gold will continue to face short-term pressure; if inflation continues to cool, concerns about tightening will ease, providing conditions for gold price recovery. Oil prices and geopolitical factors are two-way forces: geopolitical conflicts bring safe-haven buying, supporting gold; but energy price increases push inflation higher, forcing real interest rates and the dollar up, which in turn suppresses gold prices.
This rate decision meeting requires simultaneous attention to three things: the rate decision itself, the dot plot rate forecast, and the post-meeting policy guidance.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the logic is similar to gold. Hot CPI data will push up rate hike expectations and real interest rates, putting liquidity pressure on interest-free assets like BTC and ETH; cooling inflation will ease macroeconomic pressure. Geopolitical safe-haven demand under a high interest rate environment is unlikely to be an independent driver for crypto asset rallies. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 My preferred CPI data combination is:
Overall year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%;
Core year-on-year 2.4%, month-on-month 0.2%.
This indicates an acceleration in overall price increases, but the core remains relatively moderate.
The conclusion is that the overall data meets or falls short of expectations (a positive market rebound).
Additionally, if tonight's CPI data is strong, the expectation for a rate hike in September will further increase, and Wash may not withstand the pressure.
Moreover, oil prices started rising sharply in September, with August being relatively moderate; the expected value is already much higher than the previous one, making it unlikely to exceed expectations.
$BTC $XAU The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, and repo operations are failing to stop the yield from rising.
BISENT tripled the repo scale, but the 10-year US Treasury yield still hit a three-year intraday high. The market simply isn't buying it—60 billion in repo is like a pea shooter fighting a tank against hundreds of billions in weekly bond issuance.
$BTC has been hovering around 77,000 this week, seemingly not dropping much, but the macro pressure is real. The 10-year yield is nearing 4.97%, with risk-free returns almost at 5%. Holding assets that don't generate cash flow has too high an opportunity cost. Institutional funds are doing a simple calculation: buy US Treasuries to lock in 5%, or hold BTC and endure volatility?
$ETH is even worse, unable to hold above 2,300. Wolfe Research directly gave a judgment—both BTC and ETH's downtrends are not over, and ETH might even fall below 2,000.
Tonight's CPI is a hurdle. If core CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will jump from 61% to over 70%, and the 76,000 support for BTC will really be in jeopardy. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the data to come out.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 @OKX中文 我不会把这三个资产简单看成三笔相同的交易，它们更像是观察市场情绪的三个不同窗口。 🟠 $BTC → 判断市场方向 目前 $BTC 在 $77.1K 附近。 它更适合用来判断整体风险偏好是在增强，还是资金开始趋向防守。 🔵 $ETH → 观察资金参与度 $ETH 目前约 $2.44K。 如果 ETH 能重新获得成交量和资金支持，通常意味着市场参与正在从 BTC 向更广泛的生态扩散。 🟢 $SOL → 衡量风险偏好 $SOL 目前约 $99.5。 SOL 的表现更能反映交易者是否愿意进一步承担风险、寻找更高弹性的资产。 有意思的是，最近 ETF 资金已经出现分化：9月9日 BTC 现货 ETF 净流出约 $120.2M，而 ETH 和 SOL ETF 分别录得约 $34.7M 与 $11.2M 净流入。 这并不意味着资金已经全面转向山寨，而更像是资金开始出现选择性轮动。 所以我的观察框架很简单： BTC = 市场环境 ETH = 资金参与 SOL = 风险偏好 三种资产，三种信号。 现在真正重要的不是谁涨得最快，而是谁能在成交量和资金参与同步增加的情况下持续走强。 另外，宏观环境仍然The recent decline in gold essentially reflects the direct transmission of policy expectations to asset prices. At the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve's Waller emphasized price stability and policy discipline, prompting the market to reassess the monetary tightening path. The August nonfarm payroll data further confirmed employment resilience, with a significant rebound in new jobs, unemployment holding at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and weekly hours increasing to 34.4 hours. Employment did not show significant weakening, greatly reducing the Fed's urgency to quickly pivot to easing due to employment deterioration. Instead, inflation levels have become the core metric for policy decisions.
After the reversal of expectations, capital began to reallocate. The market raised future interest rate expectations, boosting the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, while gold experienced capital outflows. Since gold itself does not generate interest, rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, effectively making holders "pay rent" daily, directly suppressing gold prices. Intraday, gold's decline even exceeded 2%.
However, a single month's employment improvement does not equate to sustained economic overheating. Stronger short-term interest rate constraints do not mean gold's reserve allocation and fiat currency credit hedging value have completely disappeared. The policy outcome still depends on a series of subsequent economic data. Waller previously stated that if inflation continues to improve, rates will remain unchanged; if inflation improvement stalls, he supports rate hikes.
Nonfarm payrolls only amplified the risk of rate hikes and did not lock in the September policy decision. The future direction of gold depends on CPI and other inflation data, observing whether the market will continue to revise the rate path upward. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC $77,000
I started to buy back the positions I reduced earlier
BTC has now returned to around $76,800–$77,000.
This drop was actually not unexpected.
Oil price $CL previously surged to around $110, the US 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, and the market's pricing for a 25BP rate hike in September once reached nearly 70%. Yesterday's PPI did not provide much comfort to the market.
But I need to make one thing clear:
Higher macro risks do not mean BTC has already entered a new bear market.
I reduced leverage and shrank positions earlier precisely to wait for data risks to push the price down before buying again. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike this month given by CME is 69.4%. But note, before the PPI data, this probability was only just over 60%, and when PPI exceeded expectations, it surged nearly 10 percentage points.
Regarding CPI, the market expects the overall CPI month-on-month in August to jump sharply from 0.1% to 0.4%, mainly driven by energy prices. But the core CPI month-on-month expectation is only about 0.2%. This is interesting—the overall inflation is being forcibly pushed up by oil prices, but core inflation is actually cooling down.
For the crypto community, this data combination is quite subtle. If the core CPI can really hold steady at 0.2% or even lower, the probability of a rate hike will likely retreat from around 70%, allowing the market to catch a breath and rebound. But if the core CPI also exceeds expectations, the rate hike probability will surge above 75%, and the BTC price at 77,000 might not hold.
On the market, BTC has already dropped from 82,000 down to around 77,000, a deep enough fall that technically calls for a correction. However, the capital inflow is insufficient, so the correction strength is weak.
My outlook: If CPI is favorable, BTC could rebound short-term to around 79,000-80,000; if unfavorable, it could quickly drop to 75,000 or even 71,000. For ETH, the upper resistance is in the 2,485-2,510 range, and support is seen at 2,100-2,200.
Before tonight’s data release, control your positions well and avoid heavy bets on direction.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC $ETH ETF outflows continue, while 13F private-equity exposure rose 7.5% QoQ.
$ETH is attracting interest for its staking yield, while $BTC remains allocation-driven.
With Treasury yields still elevated, I’m staying patient until flows clearly converge.
#BTCSpotETFOutflows $ETH 【Real-time Monitoring】After the bears pushed the RSI to an extreme zone at 19:00, they did not follow through to break below 2450; on the contrary, the price was continuously pulled back, KDJ formed a golden cross at a low level, and RSI kept recovering. This indicates there is indeed support around 2450.
Short-term stop of decline: evidence already exists.
Short-term bullish reversal: not yet.
Confirmed bullish reversal: at least stabilize above 2464–2465 again.
Upward targets: 2459 → 2465 → 2470 → 2480.
Downward targets: 2450 → 2440 → 2430/2423 → 2404.
There are still two hurdles.
First hurdle: 2458–2459
MA10 is at 2458.75.
If it can stabilize above 2459 next, it means this rebound is more than just a minor correction at the MA5 level.
Second hurdle: 2464–2465
MA20 and the middle band of BOLL are both at 2464.42.
This is the real bull-bear dividing line on the 15-minute chart now.
If after the data release the price moves up and quickly:
2459 → 2465 → stabilizes
I would consider this round of selling before CPI mainly as risk-off ahead of the event, not a new trend down.
Then the upper targets reopen:
2470/2471 → 2478/2480
The downside is also very clear
The lower band of BOLL has already reached: 2449.8
2449–2450 = the near-term 15-minute critical survival line. GM ☀️ $BTC and $ETH remain the key assets I’m watching, but I’m not assuming the market goes straight up from here. I expect more consolidation and volatility over the next few days. $BTC → $77K–$78K is the key near-term zone. If it holds, bulls can attempt a move back toward $80K–$82K. But if selling pressure accelerates, I’d watch $71K–$68K as a deeper demand zone rather than panic-selling into weakness. $ETH → $2.35K–$2.36K remains important support. A reclaim of $2.50K–$2.56K would strengtheToday's share
Oracle AI cloud surges 121%, but chip stocks crash first as a sign of respect
Oracle's earnings report exploded—Q1 revenue of 19.35 billion exceeded expectations, cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, remaining performance obligations surged to 664 billion, and after-hours trading rose over 9% at one point. Jensen Huang added: AI infrastructure spending is expected to reach 3-4 trillion by 2030.
But the market didn't buy it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 2.66%, Intel fell over 5%, AMD dropped over 3%, SK Hynix ADR fell over 5%, Micron and SanDisk dropped over 4%. Japan and South Korea opened continuing to crash, Kioxia down 6.6%.
The logic is very fragmented: the AI demand story is getting stronger, but chip stocks are having their valuations cut. PPI exceeded expectations + oil prices broke $100, the probability of a rate hike soared to 71.3%, high-valuation growth stocks are hit first.
My thinking: Oracle's data shows AI capital expenditure hasn't stopped, and the long-term logic for storage and computing power remains intact. But short-term rate hike expectations are pressing down, chip stocks will be very volatile. Wait for CPI to settle, then see if the market cuts valuations first or recognizes the logic first. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows This time I will treat ETH as a position for altcoin market trading.
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns risk-on again and capital flows from BTC back to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already shown clear capital inflows, and currently about one-third of ETH supply is staked.
So when ETH returns to above 2400, I won’t treat it as a simple rebound trade.
I will first buy half.
Because if tonight’s CPI is lower than expected and interest rate trades suddenly reverse, high-beta mainstream coins like ETH might not give much time to buy slowly. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows This time I will treat ETH as a position for altcoin market trading.
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns risk-on again and capital flows from BTC back to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already shown clear capital inflows, and currently about one-third of ETH supply is staked.
So when ETH returns to above 2400, I won’t treat it as a simple rebound trade.
I will first buy half.
Because if tonight’s CPI is lower than expected and interest rate trades suddenly reverse, high-beta mainstream coins like ETH might not give much time to buy slowly. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows #PPI and CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days The US August PPI data was released first, showing divergence. Overall PPI year-on-year at 5.4% exceeded expectations, with Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up energy prices, further increasing inflation pressure; core PPI excluding energy and food month-on-month was 0.2%, slightly below expectations.
Once the data came out, the market sharply raised expectations for Fed rate hikes, with CME showing the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 70%, and funds betting on at least one rate hike before the end of October. The market awaits this Friday's CPI release; these two major inflation data points will directly determine the policy direction of the September FOMC meeting.
The asset side reacted quickly. Interest-free assets like gold were the first to come under pressure, with spot gold plunging sharply, once falling below $4330, and the US dollar index returning above 99. Stronger rate hike expectations raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, suppressing gold prices.
$BTC is also under pressure. Crypto assets are high-risk assets, extremely sensitive to liquidity changes. Rate hike expectations represent tightening market liquidity and rising risk-free yields, causing funds to flow out of the highly volatile crypto market, increasing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin and other coins.
Next, CPI will be the watershed for the market. If core CPI falls, rate hike expectations will cool down, and gold and the crypto market are expected to recover; however, inflation risks brought by oil prices remain. These two days' inflation data will dominate the short-term market trend.$OKB
Can the platform token develop an independent trend in a risk market?
With continuous net outflows from BTC ETFs, and the US PPI and oil prices pushing up interest rate pressures, platform tokens will first be affected by the overall risk appetite.
OKB also has independent variables such as platform activities, token utility, and supply arrangements. If the price remains stable when the market is weak, and platform transactions and user activity improve, it indicates that its own demand is absorbing selling pressure.
If there is no business data support and the strength is only formed by short-term rallies, beware of rapid pullbacks caused by thin liquidity. Price synchronization with platform data constitutes effective confirmation.Core Risk Warning
1. CPI is the sole directional arbiter: Core CPI month-on-month 0.2% is the watershed—below 0.2% favors a rebound, equal to 0.2% maintains consolidation, above 0.2% signals downside risk.
2. Whale long position liquidation risk: $70 million long position liquidation price at $76,308, only $400 away from the current price. If CPI exceeds expectations, it may trigger a chain liquidation.
3. Continuous ETF outflows + new buyers leading sell-offs: Over $140 million outflow in the first three days this week, the proportion of long-term holders who have realized profits has sharply dropped to 47%, stop-loss actions by new buyers may be more destructive than profit-taking by long-term holders.
4. Golden cross is a lagging signal: Even if the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA forming a golden cross, it has failed multiple times within weeks after formation in the past. CPI and FOMC are the true directional drivers.
5. 75,700 is the key defensive line for the bullish structure: Holding it means the late August rebound structure still has a chance; losing it may expose $71,800 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 From a medium to long-term perspective on US interest rate hikes, if inflation driven by US fiscal and energy factors recurs and fiat currency credit continues to deteriorate, the narrative of BTC as a non-sovereign hard asset still holds. However, this logic will be temporarily set aside in a high interest rate environment.
Going forward, do not be swayed by rapidly changing market narratives; focus on three key variables: US CPI and wage data, the 10-year US Treasury real yield, and the US Dollar Index. The crypto market trends are mostly the result of macro liquidity rather than the cause. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 A week ago, the market was still trading on the logic of "cooling employment → Fed turns dovish → gold strengthens." Wash delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, combined with August nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, three times the expected 56,000, causing market expectations to reverse directly: the rate cut narrative exited, and rate hike risks were repriced. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose simultaneously, spot gold plunged more than 2% intraday, and safe-haven assets also faced sell-offs.
When macro expectations completely reverse in just one week, rather than worrying about whether gold or BTC can hold, it is more important to grasp the core variables truly driving the market.
For cryptocurrencies, the transmission path of this round of expectation reversal is very clear. With U.S. Treasury real yields rising, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increases, capital prioritizes flowing back into U.S. dollar fixed income products, and high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH passively bear the pressure of liquidity withdrawal. In the short term, BTC reflects more of a risk asset characteristic and will not simply replicate gold's safe-haven logic; during a phase of rising rate expectations, even if geopolitical risks heat up, it is difficult for BTC to develop an independent safe-haven rally.
However, short-to-medium and medium-to-long-term logics should be viewed separately. In the short term, inflation, employment data, and Fed officials' statements will continue to influence rate hike probabilities, suppressing the crypto market. Tonight's CPI is the most important observation window. If inflation readings heat up again and rate hike expectations further ferment, BTC will likely remain under pressure; only if inflation clearly declines will the market trade easing expectations again.
$BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Foldable screen costs Samsung about $250 per unit, Apple rose 3.56% yesterday.
MacRumors said Apple pays Samsung about $250 for each foldable screen on the iPhone Duo.
Yesterday, AAPL closed at 326.57, up 3.56%; the S&P fell for the fourth consecutive day, NVDA down 2.3%, MU down 4.7%.
The Duo sells for $1999, lower than Wall Street's expected $2300 to $2500, but the display cost has already been accounted for.
I think the rise is driven by sentiment, not an improvement in cost structure.
Screen costs are squeezing gross margins; tonight around 20:30 Asia-Pacific time, CPI will be released, a core reading of 0.3% could easily ignite rate hike expectations.
I won’t chase longs before CPI; the invalidation condition is if the core is significantly below expectations and pre-orders explode, then we can talk about buying back.
Do you value the $1999 pricing advantage more, or are you more worried about the $250 display cost?
$AAPL $NVDA $MU
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
#EarningsWatcher: Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121%The fundamental of the $TRUMP token is Trump's mouth; when the mouth stops, it stops!
As everyone knows, the valuation model of Meme coins is different from traditional coins. Traditional coins look at protocol revenue, on-chain activity, and institutional holdings! But $TRUMP only cares about one thing — whether Trump has spoken recently on Truth Social.
History has repeated many times: when he posts a strong statement on Truth, TRUMP immediately jumps; when he is silent for a few days, the price consolidates; when he argues with a national leader, TRUMP moves inversely to that country's related coins. This is its fundamental!
From September 12 to September 18 this week, the only "big events" $TRUMP can look forward to are two!
1. Trump intensively speaks out for the midterm elections
2. The unlocking event on 9.18!
But between the mouth and the chips, the mouth is increasingly unable to support the chips — in late August, he spoke several times, and TRUMP fell from 3 to the current 1.97.
Therefore, Kuzi boldly states that the last support for the TRUMP coin is the mouth, but the mouth can only support it for shorter and shorter periods.
Keep an eye on his Truth next week, and don't forget that on the other side of the candlestick stands the 28.7 million coins unlocking on 9.18! The Senate just got a 630-page revised version of the CLARITY Act. And the biggest change isn't simply “more crypto regulation.” It’s who gets regulated. 👀 Instead of trying to regulate autonomous code directly, the revision focuses on people or groups with meaningful control over a DeFi protocol. If a protocol is only “decentralized” on paper — while a known group can change its rules, functions or consensus — it could face CFTC registration and BSA/AML requirements. That creates a new line: R#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
CPI explodes tonight! Short on the rally, don't catch the flying knife
CPI at 20:30 tonight, market expects year-on-year 3.4%, core month-on-month down to 0.2%, inflation not that scary, but the probability of rate hikes has soared to 73%.
Look at what the pre-market funds are doing. Overnight tech stocks were bloodied, Micron down 5%, Intel down 5.5%, the intention of funds to retreat from AI overvalued sectors is very clear. But the pre-market trend changed today, Nasdaq futures up 0.64% pre-market, Oracle up 5.77% pre-market, funds are betting CPI won't blow past expectations, pre-positioning for an oversold rebound.
I'll give the conclusion directly: don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Today's offensive direction is not in chips, but event-driven. ACV was acquired by Copart at a 45% premium, soaring 44% pre-market, this is certainty premium. SpaceX up 0.7% pre-market, but concerns about data center expansion slowing are real.
The core logic is simple: before CPI release, bulls are probing attacks, bears are ready to retreat anytime. If CPI exceeds expectations, rate hike shadow returns, tech stocks get hit again. If it meets expectations, oversold rebound can take a bite, but don't get attached to the fight. Tonight's direction is "buy the rumor, sell the fact" $SOXL ⚙️ Crypto Market Impact Path: From Data to Price
Tonight's market will follow the transmission chain below, moving very fast:
20:30 Data Release: Core CPI figures are published.
20:30-20:35 Algorithmic Trading: Quant bots instantly price according to preset programs, BTC$BTC volatility may reach 1.8 times the usual level within 30 minutes.
20:35-21:00 Leverage Cleanup: Open interest in derivatives markets has dropped to a four-month low, the market is "thin" and extremely sensitive to data. If the direction is wrong, long liquidations could far exceed shorts (referencing a 5:1 liquidation ratio during nonfarm payroll data).
After 21:00 Trend Confirmation: Whales and large holders have been inactive for a week, waiting for the dust to settle. The real trend will be confirmed by spot buy/sell orders. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Tonight's drop is not just a simple technical correction; it's like three knives cutting down at once!📉
Originally, $BTC was still struggling above $79,000, but as soon as the macro data came out, it dropped below $77,000 within minutes. The core contradiction in the market now is simple: inflation, oil prices, and rate hike expectations are all heating up simultaneously.
① PPI exceeded expectations, directly igniting the first fire 🔥
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, significantly higher than market expectations, and the core PPI increase over the past 12 months also reached 4.7%.
This means the market is starting to worry again: inflation may not come down as quickly as imagined.
So just after BTC briefly stood above $79,000, once the data was released, funds immediately pushed it back below $77,000.
② US-Iran conflict escalates, oil prices add another blow 🛢️
A new round of conflict between the US and Iran escalated, with supply risks near the Strait of Hormuz further fermenting, and Brent crude oil breaking above $100 again.
Once oil prices stay high, inflation expectations are hard to cool down quickly.
This is definitely not good news for risk assets.
③ Rate hike expectations soar, US Treasury yields continue to suppress risk assets 📊
The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has clearly heated up, with the probability once jumping from around 42% to over 70%.
Meanwhile, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.353%, a 19-year high.
#DailyOrbit #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5% — a figure that represents the "line of life and death" for global risk assets.
The surge in US Treasury yields means that the risk-free rate is rising. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, real estate — the valuation models for all risk assets need to be recalculated. What's more troublesome is that repo operations can't stop the yield from rising, indicating the market is selling US Treasuries rather than buying them.
Why the sell-off? Expanding fiscal deficits, debt ceiling crises, stubborn inflation, and the Federal Reserve's potential to continue raising rates — each factor is weakening the appeal of US Treasuries. Even the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is considering reducing its holdings by $80 billion in US Treasuries, reflecting the market's shaken confidence.
For the crypto market, the surge in US Treasury yields is a short-term negative. But in the long run, the day US Treasury credit is shaken is when Bitcoin's narrative as a "non-sovereign hard asset" strengthens. When "risk-free assets" are no longer risk-free, capital has to find a new home.
The 5% threshold is both a pressure point and an opportunity. $RAY RAY bulls hold strong cards: protocol revenue surged 363% in 30 days, with a single-day buyback of $640,000 on September 8, hitting a 19-month high. On-chain single-day transactions reached 3.1 million, active addresses 160,000, and staked SOL hit a historic high of 470,000 tokens. This is solid buying pressure driving the market.
But the bears' cards are even more lethal: the spot market has seen net selling for 10 consecutive days, totaling $23 million sold off. The daily RSI has surged to 81, indicating extreme overbought conditions. The price has jumped from 0.5 to 1.59, tripling in a week, with profit-taking piling up.
The core logic for shorting is simple: the buyback flywheel depends on StonkFun's launch hype, which is short-term sentiment. Once the hype fades, fee income will plummet, and buybacks will stop immediately. The 10 consecutive days of net selling in the spot market already indicate someone is using the rally to offload.
However, the biggest risk for shorts is a short squeeze. If fee data continues to explode, buyback buying will persist, repeatedly squeezing the bears.
Therefore: take light short positions with stop-loss set above 1.75. Exit if volume breaks above the previous high of 1.74. If fees decline and price falls below 1.55, the short logic will be validated. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 BlackRock has aggressively purchased $251.4 million worth of ETH over 20 days, maintaining continuous net inflows without interruption.
In the past 20 trading days, BlackRock's ETHB fund has cumulatively bought $251.4 million in Ethereum, with an increase of $13.9 million just yesterday alone.
The key point is that during these 20 trading days, ETHB has never experienced a single day of capital outflow, consistently maintaining a net inflow status.
In stark contrast, its sister fund ETHA and Fidelity's FETH both experienced varying degrees of capital outflows during the same period.
Capital is clearly diverging, with institutional funds concentrating on BlackRock's ETHB.
Other ETH spot ETFs are facing capital withdrawals, while only ETHB continues to attract funds, indicating that institutional capital is not entering the market broadly but is switching internally among different Ethereum ETFs.
Therefore, although ETHB itself shows strong buying pressure, it does not mean the entire Ethereum ETF sector has fully recovered.
Institutions seem to be selectively positioning rather than collectively bullish on ETH.
The inflow to one fund does not represent an overall market improvement. This is a personal opinion and not investment advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Early Pan gave the 4330‑4350 consolidation idea, Hangqing pressured and fell as expected, dropping from around 4350 to 4326, with the Pan surface moving in the initial 25-day space.
The consolidation-led pattern was fully realized, with no reversal signals appearing; the rebound was just an opportunity to consolidate. The heavy CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30, and Hangqing's volatility will further increase. Before the data, the Pan surface is in a consolidation and accumulation phase, so do not blindly chase $BTC #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction CFTC says it's futures, but the tax bureau hasn't approved yet
The most confusing thing for newcomers isn't the candlestick chart, it's tax reporting.
Key rule: CFTC approved Kalshi perpetuals as futures.
CME insists these are swaps, each side says their own thing.
Common pitfall for retail investors: Section 1256 counts as 60% long, 40% short.
Swaps don't apply, just one word difference changes the tax rate completely.
Newbies can't even distinguish contracts from spot, and already get schooled by the tax form.
CFTC can't control the IRS, Congress and courts haven't spoken.
How exactly to report this money, who can give a clear answer?
#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 $BTC #布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌
特朗普说“选后油价会跌”，本质是亲口承认高油价至少还要熬两个月。9月加息的压力不会因为一句政治承诺而消失。
布油周三收于101.21美元，7月以来首次重返100上方。WTI收于96.05美元。美军摧毁5艘伊朗油轮，伊朗宣称报复袭击8艘油轮和2艘美军舰艇。霍尔木兹日均通过量从正常1800万桶骤降至490万桶。
终端价格已经炸了。美国汽油均价4.22美元/加仑，较战前涨42%；柴油5.94美元，涨58%。
特朗普的原话是——“选举后不久，油价将会大幅下跌”，汽油最终能降到2美元以下。但他同时承认“需要比中期选举更长一点的时间”。
翻译一下：选前别指望油价降，选后也不一定立刻降。 美伊冲突已进入第七个月，特朗普说不会为中期选举改变伊朗战略。
对加密市场来说，油价破百+汽油涨42%，意味着8月CPI的能源分项不会好看。市场已经把9月加息概率推到60%以上，特朗普的表态不会改变这个数字。 通胀数据才是真正的裁判，政治承诺不是。CL at $96, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: geopolitical surge, CPI hanging high, crypto market kneels first.
In the past week, CL violently surged from just above 90 to 106, then fell back to around 96.
At the same time, BTC dropped from 82,000 to around 77,000, with weekly continuous decline, and ETF net outflows nearly $450 million in three days.
You think the crypto market is falling on its own? Wrong. Oil prices are the real invisible market maker this week.
First thing: oil price is the true macro amplifier.
Middle East flares up, oil price surges.
Oil price surges, inflation expectations take off.
Inflation expectations take off, the Fed dares not ease.
Fed doesn’t ease, BTC gets pressed down hard.
You have to memorize this chain.
You’re not trading CL, you’re betting on whether the Middle East will accidentally ignite conflict.
You don’t even know where the Strait of Hormuz is, yet you stake your wealth on its news.
Second thing: tonight’s CPI, CL is the detonator.
Today at 8:30 AM ET, US August CPI will be released. The previous PPI exceeded expectations, year-on-year 5.4%, with energy contribution obvious.
The market has priced in a 70% chance of a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high.
If core CPI and energy components remain hot:
Hike expectations strengthen → USD strengthens → BTC under pressure → CL may surge again to 100-104.
If CPI is moderate:
Oil price premium falls back → risk appetite recovers → BTC rebounds from oversold → CL retests 93-95.
Third thing: technically, 96 is not an entry point, it’s a minefield.
CL daily: surged from just above 90 to 104, then retested 96, structurally just a consolidation. But short-term overbought then correction, volatility is huge.
Support: 93-95 (strong), 90 (psychological level).
Resistance: 100-104, 105.
Chasing longs at 96 CL? Where to place stop loss? At 93, $3 stop loss, daily volatility $5, easily stops you out.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
Middle East geopolitical premium not gone, any conflict escalation can push oil prices higher
CL broke previous high then retested, structure intact
Strong support at 93-95
Inflation trade still on, oil price is the biggest amplifier
On the other side:
Fell back from 104, short-term overbought
CPI released tonight, all bets before data
BTC ETF continuous outflows, risk appetite suppressed
If CPI is moderate, oil price premium quickly retreats
CL resistance above: 100 → 104 → 105
CL support below: 93-95 → 90
Trading strategy
Wait for CL to retest 93-95 and Middle East news, then lightly go long with stop loss below 90.
If after CPI oil price breaks below 95 and risk appetite recovers, expect short-term pullback, don’t hold hard.
BTC:
Bullish bias: defend 76k-75.5k, lightly go long, target 79k-80k, stop loss 74.8k.
Bearish bias: rebound at 79k-80k blocked and CPI hot, try short, target 75.5k-73k.
Break below 75.5k, short-term turns weak, target 70k.
CL is not crypto, but it’s the real market maker for crypto this week.
You can ignore crude oil, but crude oil is definitely watching your position.
96 is not an entry point, it’s a minefield. Before data lands, all bravery is gambling with your life.
Don’t use leverage to bet on CPI, that’s not trading, that’s buying a lottery ticket.
Tonight’s CPI, are you long CL or short BTC?
$BTC $CL $BZ #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Tonight's US CPI and Bitcoin + US Treasury linkage analysis (Beijing time 20:30, US August CPI, the last key inflation data before the Fed's September meeting)
Core logic in one sentence: Bitcoin is a high-leverage risk asset, and its pricing anchor is the 【real interest rate (nominal US Treasury yield - inflation)】. The higher the CPI → the higher the Fed's rate hike expectations and US Treasury yields → the higher the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, putting pressure on the coin price; if CPI cools down, US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for BTC rebound
⚠️Key point: The market prioritizes 【Core CPI (excluding food and energy)】, not the overall CPI; the Fed bases its decisions on core CPI
Market consensus expectations: overall CPI month-on-month 0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%; core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%
Preceding background: Yesterday's PPI exceeded expectations, pushing the September rate hike probability close to 70%, 10-year US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin has already fallen in advance, and the market is priced with a hawkish bias, so the data tonight has very little margin for error
Three scenario simulations
Scenario 1: CPI (especially core CPI) > expectations (sticky inflation, hawkish)
• Change: 10-year US Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar strengthens, and the market raises the probability of a September rate hike
• BTC reaction: rapid short-term plunge, flash crashes are common, leveraged positions liquidate en masse, lower support levels are tested;
• Logic: real interest rates rise, funds withdraw from high-risk assets like crypto and shift to US Treasuries for risk-free interest; On September 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil report, lowering the global oil demand forecast. Due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, Middle East energy supply is disrupted, forcing consuming countries to adapt to supply contraction, and oil consumption may further decline in the coming months.
The IEA expanded its expected global oil demand reduction for 2026 by 940,000 barrels per day, to 2.5 million barrels per day, marking the largest annual average demand drop since the 2020 pandemic recession. Although demand forecasts have been lowered, the supply-side contraction is even greater, delaying the global oil market's return to supply surplus until 2027.
The report warns that global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace, with commercial stock buffers rapidly thinning. The current market relies on inventory drawdowns to fill the supply-demand gap; if supply cannot be restored, balancing the market will require further reductions in oil consumption. This year, the daily supply deficit in the oil market has expanded to 1.7 million barrels, higher than previous estimates.
From a macro perspective: In the short term, oil prices remain geopolitically supported, and sustained high oil prices continue to push inflation stickiness, which will keep influencing Federal Reserve rate hike pricing. Even if demand declines, as long as Middle East shipping risks are not resolved, the pressure from energy inflation will not completely dissipate. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 $BTC 9.11 Evening (Bitcoin, Ethereum) Strategy Sharing $ETH
Recently, macroeconomic bearish factors have concentratedly hit the market. Non-farm payrolls and PPI have consecutively exerted pressure. Brent crude oil surged to $108, the US-Iran situation continues to escalate, and inflation stickiness remains stubborn. The market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has exceeded 70%, US Treasury yields are rising, risk aversion is heating up, and liquidity during the day session is clearly insufficient. The market generally anticipates CPI to continue being bearish, but under this consensus, one must guard against a data surprise triggering a reverse rally. It is not recommended to blindly take heavy positions before the data release; beware of being swept by violent fluctuations. Wait for the data to land before making decisions. The previously emphasized 77300-77800 range, originally a support zone below, was directly broken under PPI bearish pressure, completing a bottom-to-top reversal and now becoming a key resistance above. The market dipped to 76400 in the early morning, continuously running below the range without an effective breakout. As long as the rebound cannot hold above this range, the weak pattern will not change. The overall market remains weak; maintain a high-short strategy, be sure to set stop losses, and avoid risks from sudden news reversals.
Friday Evening Operation Strategy
Bitcoin: Short near 77300-77800, target 76100, swing target 75500, stop loss 78200, 78500
Ethereum: Short near 2470-2490, target 2410, swing target 2360, stop loss 2510, 2530ZEC 今日一度回落至 $1,070附近，24小时跌幅接近 14%。经历前期连续暴涨后，这种幅度的回撤并不意外。 但如果拉长时间来看，ZEC 依然非常强势： 📈 20日涨幅仍接近 40%+ 📈 30日涨幅仍超过 100% 📉 短线则明显进入降温阶段 这次上涨背后并不只是市场情绪。 Grayscale 的 ZCSH Zcash ETF 自 8月25日上市以来持续吸引资金，近期资产规模已经突破 5亿美元，持有的 ZEC 也超过 55万枚，说明机构资金对隐私赛道的关注正在增加。 所以我不会因为今天的大阴线就直接否定 ZEC 的中期趋势。 但现在也不是我会急着抄底的位置。👀 🔥 强趋势 + 短线动能衰减 真正需要观察的是： ➡️ $1,050–$1,100 能否形成承接 ➡️ 下跌过程中成交量是否继续放大 ➡️ 买盘能否重新推动价格站回 $1,150–$1,200 ➡️ ETF资金流入能否继续抵消获利盘压力 同时，当前宏观环境并不友好。油价和美债收益率上升正在增加风险资产压力，市场也在等待美国通胀数据以及下周的美联储利率决定。 所以我的思路很简单： 趋势还强，但不追跌。 如果买方重新Qingfeng's Practical Trading Layout Record | Weekly Review 9.7-9.10
Repeated shocks, continuous fluctuations in both directions, an ongoing play of inducements and counter-inducements.
Following K-line signals, dual-direction phased layouts without attachment to battles, timely stops and entries.
BTC accumulated 10,690 points | ETH accumulated 374 points
9 years of ups and downs in the crypto circle, only trading BTC/ETH mainstream contracts in mid-short term. No data overreading, no guessing news, only reading K-line language. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The Clarity Act hasn't been voted on yet
XRP has already dropped about eight percent
The price has returned to around $1.35
The regulatory boot is still hanging in the air
The regulatory coins themselves have already crouched down; September 15 is the voting day
Strictly speaking, it's more like a procedural hurdle
Only after passing it can things move forward
But the market doesn't care if it's the final review or a preliminary round
As long as the date is marked on the calendar
Narrative coins have to pay the ticket first. Bitcoin has fallen below 77,000 these days
It's more like paying the bill for PPI and interest rate expectations
Not repaying XRP's regulatory debt
Ethereum dropped below 2,500
Still the same macro pricing
In the European and US sessions, they look like safe havens
But in reality, they're just bigger in size
The fall sounds heavier
Dogecoin is even less qualified to be a safe haven
Sliding from around 0.10 to 0.084
The old high Beta problem strikes again
Regulatory coins sneeze first
Meme coins cough along
Not because it was also written into the bill
But because when the risk switch is turned off
Retail positions are reduced first, so will it follow?
It already is following
Just the path is different
$XRP is taking an event discount
$BTC and $ETH are taking an interest rate discount
DOGE is taking an emotion discount
Before the bill lands, don't think of mainstream and meme coins as safe houses
Mistaken killings can happen together
But official recognition is hard to come by together
Voting on the 15th
The Fed on the 16th
Two days of consecutive announcements
The ones that fall first don't necessarily rebound first
The ones that fall later aren't necessarily more resilient Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and which data points need to be observed going forward.
September 10th saw heavier settlements: Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of about 280 million in one day, the heaviest since July; Ethereum also saw an outflow of about 30 million, and Solana had a small net outflow. Ripple, on the other hand, slightly absorbed about 5 million that day, becoming one of the few to still have inflows.
Institutions have been selling for several days, but the spot market slightly bounced in the evening, meaning selling pressure and short-term rebounds are offsetting each other. You can go long, but don’t mistake this green candle as a full return of funds. Dogecoin lacks institutional stories, so it’s even more important to hold 0.08. Without breaking 83,000 effectively, it’s still just a rebound within the range.
Going forward, watch whether BTC/ETH ETFs can continue, whether SOL funds continue to slow, whether XRP funds and price diverge, and since DOGE’s holdings are weak, it’s even more important to maintain stop-losses. Take profits when you can, but stop-losses are more important than taking profits.A trader achieved a 46.68% return in 90 days, yet the current group of followers collectively has -612,829.85 USDT.
This is not a "who is right or wrong" conclusion, but two sets of OKX public data from Milies L:
Trader's profit curve: positive
Current followers' group summary: negative
His maximum drawdown over 90 days is 7.04%, ATS is 64.08, status FORMAL, credibility HIGH.
The contrast is significant, but the reason cannot be directly inferred from the public data. The followers' entry times, position settings, and exit points are not visible; OKX also does not provide a fixed historical window for copyTotalPnl.
Therefore, I prefer to treat this as a research reminder:
When looking at lead traders, you cannot only look at how much they earned.
You also need to see whether the followers ultimately made money in sync.
I will continue to track such samples of "trader profits, followers losses."
Data is as of this collection.
This article is based solely on OKX public data for trader behavior research and does not constitute investment advice.$LAB: Unlocking on the 12th, is this big drop a shakeout or a trap?
The current intense market volatility has two possibilities.
The first is what you suspect: the main players deliberately shake out all the weak retail investors. When the unlocking window arrives on September 12, they use buybacks and market making to push the price up, attracting new funds with the unlocking narrative.
But the second risk is greater: the unlocking itself is a huge selling pressure. The current drop is pricing in this selling pressure early; the shakeout is just an illusion, and on the unlocking day, the market will be dumped and escape.
The biggest hidden risk for LAB is evident in on-chain data: the project insiders hold over 95% of the token supply, with a large concentration of chips in a few big holders. From August to December, there will be monthly unlocking releases, continuously adding new circulating supply to the market. This has happened before: public investors’ lockups were unilaterally extended, and by the time unlocking occurred, the token price was nearly zero—a cautionary precedent.
Although the project has a buyback and burn mechanism, the scale of buyback funds is questionable in offsetting the selling pressure caused by unlocking. Big holders have too many chips; if they choose to sell, they can easily crash the market, and buyback efforts will struggle to fully absorb the massive selling pressure.
Shakeout completed, price rally after unlocking
If big holders choose to lock their tokens and not sell, buybacks continue to exert strength, and the overall market (BTC/ETH) environment cooperates, the shakeout will complete, short-term chips will be washed out, and the price will rise after unlocking using the narrative. Risk: even if the price rallies, it is likely to be a pulse move, with highly concentrated chips that can be dumped at any time. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The AI bull market isn't over yet, but the era of "just touching AI means a rise" is really over.🔥
Tonight's $ORCL and $ADBE earnings reports are the most direct examples.
Let's look at Oracle first.
Q1 revenue was $19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year; cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, and the FY2027 full-year revenue target was raised to $90 billion.
AI infrastructure demand is still there, with orders, revenue, and guidance all solid, so after the earnings release, the stock rose about 7% in after-hours trading.
Now let's look at Adobe.
Revenue was $6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and AI-related ARR grew more than 150% year-over-year.
But the market's response was: a drop.
It fell about 2.3% after hours.
Why?
Because the market is no longer satisfied with "AI is growing fast" and is starting to ask:
How much real revenue has AI brought you? How much profit? When can it be realized?
This is actually the biggest change in the current AI market:
Having AI ≠ guaranteed rise
Having growth ≠ guaranteed rise
Only companies that can sustainably turn AI into orders, revenue, and profit deserve a market premium.
So from now on, when looking at AI companies, I will focus on these 4 things:
• Whether AI has truly converted into orders and revenue
• Whether there is pricing power, and if ARPU and profit margins can be increased
#DailyOrbit I have a 0.2083 short position on $ADA with 50x leverage. The current price is 0.2021, with an unrealized profit of +148.82%. At that time, I saw it rebound to the previous resistance level and stall. With Grayscale withdrawing its spot ETF application and the ecosystem TVL shrinking, the bullish narrative couldn't hold, so I shorted based on the structure.
ADA has been highly volatile recently; futures trading volume once surged to six times that of spot, with rapid spikes under high leverage. Although there are positives, institutional confidence is lacking, and there is heavy selling pressure above.
I’m not stubborn with the 50x short position; I’m locking in most of the unrealized profit first, moving the stop loss on the remaining position above the cost. If it breaks back above 0.208 or rebounds with volume, I’ll exit—no hard holding. $BTC $ARB One hour left until the CPI announcement, let's speculate a bit on the current script of the Americans
Currently, the US Treasury's Bassett is frequently leaking information
And the US Treasury has a team of operators aiming to reduce the real debt burden of outstanding government bonds
Because the current US federal debt is huge, long-term bonds carry a long-term interest burden. If they can repurchase and cancel bonds when long-term bond prices plummet, it's equivalent to settling huge long-term debt at a discount: the same dollars can buy back bonds with a higher face value, directly cutting future interest expenses for decades
So how to push long-term bonds down cheaply? It requires strong inflation data and rising expectations of interest rate hikes.
At this time, the Treasury steps in to repurchase long-term bonds, redeeming high face value debt with less cash, effectively a "debt discount clearance"
So the script is:
Endure inflation, maintain high interest rate expectations
Once the repurchase task is nearly done, shift to a narrative of rate cuts
This script can also help Wash, stabilizing the so-called independence of the Federal Reserve
If this script is truly followed, manipulating tonight's CPI data is possible, but a compromise of not manipulating and letting Wash hawk out is also possible
$XAU is very likely to break below 4300 to test 4250
$BTC will completely break below 76300 to test 75000
$ETH is relatively strong but also very likely to break below 2435 to test the 2360 level
This conspiracy theory essay does not represent investment advice
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向