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$RAY RAY bulls hold strong cards: protocol revenue surged 363% in 30 days, with a single-day buyback of $640,000 on September 8, hitting a 19-month high. On-chain single-day transactions reached 3.1 million, active addresses 160,000, and staked SOL hit a historic high of 470,000 tokens. This is solid buying pressure driving the market.
But the bears' cards are even more lethal: the spot market has seen net selling for 10 consecutive days, totaling $23 million sold off. The daily RSI has surged to 81, indicating extreme overbought conditions. The price has jumped from 0.5 to 1.59, tripling in a week, with profit-taking piling up.
The core logic for shorting is simple: the buyback flywheel depends on StonkFun's launch hype, which is short-term sentiment. Once the hype fades, fee income will plummet, and buybacks will stop immediately. The 10 consecutive days of net selling in the spot market already indicate someone is using the rally to offload.
However, the biggest risk for shorts is a short squeeze. If fee data continues to explode, buyback buying will persist, repeatedly squeezing the bears.
Therefore: take light short positions with stop-loss set above 1.75. Exit if volume breaks above the previous high of 1.74. If fees decline and price falls below 1.55, the short logic will be validated. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 BlackRock has aggressively purchased $251.4 million worth of ETH over 20 days, maintaining continuous net inflows without interruption.
In the past 20 trading days, BlackRock's ETHB fund has cumulatively bought $251.4 million in Ethereum, with an increase of $13.9 million just yesterday alone.
The key point is that during these 20 trading days, ETHB has never experienced a single day of capital outflow, consistently maintaining a net inflow status.
In stark contrast, its sister fund ETHA and Fidelity's FETH both experienced varying degrees of capital outflows during the same period.
Capital is clearly diverging, with institutional funds concentrating on BlackRock's ETHB.
Other ETH spot ETFs are facing capital withdrawals, while only ETHB continues to attract funds, indicating that institutional capital is not entering the market broadly but is switching internally among different Ethereum ETFs.
Therefore, although ETHB itself shows strong buying pressure, it does not mean the entire Ethereum ETF sector has fully recovered.
Institutions seem to be selectively positioning rather than collectively bullish on ETH.
The inflow to one fund does not represent an overall market improvement. This is a personal opinion and not investment advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Early Pan gave the 4330‑4350 consolidation idea, Hangqing pressured and fell as expected, dropping from around 4350 to 4326, with the Pan surface moving in the initial 25-day space.
The consolidation-led pattern was fully realized, with no reversal signals appearing; the rebound was just an opportunity to consolidate. The heavy CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30, and Hangqing's volatility will further increase. Before the data, the Pan surface is in a consolidation and accumulation phase, so do not blindly chase $BTC #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction CFTC says it's futures, but the tax bureau hasn't approved yet
The most confusing thing for newcomers isn't the candlestick chart, it's tax reporting.
Key rule: CFTC approved Kalshi perpetuals as futures.
CME insists these are swaps, each side says their own thing.
Common pitfall for retail investors: Section 1256 counts as 60% long, 40% short.
Swaps don't apply, just one word difference changes the tax rate completely.
Newbies can't even distinguish contracts from spot, and already get schooled by the tax form.
CFTC can't control the IRS, Congress and courts haven't spoken.
How exactly to report this money, who can give a clear answer?
#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 $BTC #布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌
特朗普说“选后油价会跌”，本质是亲口承认高油价至少还要熬两个月。9月加息的压力不会因为一句政治承诺而消失。
布油周三收于101.21美元，7月以来首次重返100上方。WTI收于96.05美元。美军摧毁5艘伊朗油轮，伊朗宣称报复袭击8艘油轮和2艘美军舰艇。霍尔木兹日均通过量从正常1800万桶骤降至490万桶。
终端价格已经炸了。美国汽油均价4.22美元/加仑，较战前涨42%；柴油5.94美元，涨58%。
特朗普的原话是——“选举后不久，油价将会大幅下跌”，汽油最终能降到2美元以下。但他同时承认“需要比中期选举更长一点的时间”。
翻译一下：选前别指望油价降，选后也不一定立刻降。 美伊冲突已进入第七个月，特朗普说不会为中期选举改变伊朗战略。
对加密市场来说，油价破百+汽油涨42%，意味着8月CPI的能源分项不会好看。市场已经把9月加息概率推到60%以上，特朗普的表态不会改变这个数字。 通胀数据才是真正的裁判，政治承诺不是。CL at $96, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: geopolitical surge, CPI hanging high, crypto market kneels first.
In the past week, CL violently surged from just above 90 to 106, then fell back to around 96.
At the same time, BTC dropped from 82,000 to around 77,000, with weekly continuous decline, and ETF net outflows nearly $450 million in three days.
You think the crypto market is falling on its own? Wrong. Oil prices are the real invisible market maker this week.
First thing: oil price is the true macro amplifier.
Middle East flares up, oil price surges.
Oil price surges, inflation expectations take off.
Inflation expectations take off, the Fed dares not ease.
Fed doesn’t ease, BTC gets pressed down hard.
You have to memorize this chain.
You’re not trading CL, you’re betting on whether the Middle East will accidentally ignite conflict.
You don’t even know where the Strait of Hormuz is, yet you stake your wealth on its news.
Second thing: tonight’s CPI, CL is the detonator.
Today at 8:30 AM ET, US August CPI will be released. The previous PPI exceeded expectations, year-on-year 5.4%, with energy contribution obvious.
The market has priced in a 70% chance of a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high.
If core CPI and energy components remain hot:
Hike expectations strengthen → USD strengthens → BTC under pressure → CL may surge again to 100-104.
If CPI is moderate:
Oil price premium falls back → risk appetite recovers → BTC rebounds from oversold → CL retests 93-95.
Third thing: technically, 96 is not an entry point, it’s a minefield.
CL daily: surged from just above 90 to 104, then retested 96, structurally just a consolidation. But short-term overbought then correction, volatility is huge.
Support: 93-95 (strong), 90 (psychological level).
Resistance: 100-104, 105.
Chasing longs at 96 CL? Where to place stop loss? At 93, $3 stop loss, daily volatility $5, easily stops you out.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
Middle East geopolitical premium not gone, any conflict escalation can push oil prices higher
CL broke previous high then retested, structure intact
Strong support at 93-95
Inflation trade still on, oil price is the biggest amplifier
On the other side:
Fell back from 104, short-term overbought
CPI released tonight, all bets before data
BTC ETF continuous outflows, risk appetite suppressed
If CPI is moderate, oil price premium quickly retreats
CL resistance above: 100 → 104 → 105
CL support below: 93-95 → 90
Trading strategy
Wait for CL to retest 93-95 and Middle East news, then lightly go long with stop loss below 90.
If after CPI oil price breaks below 95 and risk appetite recovers, expect short-term pullback, don’t hold hard.
BTC:
Bullish bias: defend 76k-75.5k, lightly go long, target 79k-80k, stop loss 74.8k.
Bearish bias: rebound at 79k-80k blocked and CPI hot, try short, target 75.5k-73k.
Break below 75.5k, short-term turns weak, target 70k.
CL is not crypto, but it’s the real market maker for crypto this week.
You can ignore crude oil, but crude oil is definitely watching your position.
96 is not an entry point, it’s a minefield. Before data lands, all bravery is gambling with your life.
Don’t use leverage to bet on CPI, that’s not trading, that’s buying a lottery ticket.
Tonight’s CPI, are you long CL or short BTC?
$BTC $CL $BZ #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Tonight's US CPI and Bitcoin + US Treasury linkage analysis (Beijing time 20:30, US August CPI, the last key inflation data before the Fed's September meeting)
Core logic in one sentence: Bitcoin is a high-leverage risk asset, and its pricing anchor is the 【real interest rate (nominal US Treasury yield - inflation)】. The higher the CPI → the higher the Fed's rate hike expectations and US Treasury yields → the higher the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, putting pressure on the coin price; if CPI cools down, US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for BTC rebound
⚠️Key point: The market prioritizes 【Core CPI (excluding food and energy)】, not the overall CPI; the Fed bases its decisions on core CPI
Market consensus expectations: overall CPI month-on-month 0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%; core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%
Preceding background: Yesterday's PPI exceeded expectations, pushing the September rate hike probability close to 70%, 10-year US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin has already fallen in advance, and the market is priced with a hawkish bias, so the data tonight has very little margin for error
Three scenario simulations
Scenario 1: CPI (especially core CPI) > expectations (sticky inflation, hawkish)
• Change: 10-year US Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar strengthens, and the market raises the probability of a September rate hike
• BTC reaction: rapid short-term plunge, flash crashes are common, leveraged positions liquidate en masse, lower support levels are tested;
• Logic: real interest rates rise, funds withdraw from high-risk assets like crypto and shift to US Treasuries for risk-free interest; On September 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil report, lowering the global oil demand forecast. Due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, Middle East energy supply is disrupted, forcing consuming countries to adapt to supply contraction, and oil consumption may further decline in the coming months.
The IEA expanded its expected global oil demand reduction for 2026 by 940,000 barrels per day, to 2.5 million barrels per day, marking the largest annual average demand drop since the 2020 pandemic recession. Although demand forecasts have been lowered, the supply-side contraction is even greater, delaying the global oil market's return to supply surplus until 2027.
The report warns that global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace, with commercial stock buffers rapidly thinning. The current market relies on inventory drawdowns to fill the supply-demand gap; if supply cannot be restored, balancing the market will require further reductions in oil consumption. This year, the daily supply deficit in the oil market has expanded to 1.7 million barrels, higher than previous estimates.
From a macro perspective: In the short term, oil prices remain geopolitically supported, and sustained high oil prices continue to push inflation stickiness, which will keep influencing Federal Reserve rate hike pricing. Even if demand declines, as long as Middle East shipping risks are not resolved, the pressure from energy inflation will not completely dissipate. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 $BTC 9.11 Evening (Bitcoin, Ethereum) Strategy Sharing $ETH
Recently, macroeconomic bearish factors have concentratedly hit the market. Non-farm payrolls and PPI have consecutively exerted pressure. Brent crude oil surged to $108, the US-Iran situation continues to escalate, and inflation stickiness remains stubborn. The market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in September has exceeded 70%, US Treasury yields are rising, risk aversion is heating up, and liquidity during the day session is clearly insufficient. The market generally anticipates CPI to continue being bearish, but under this consensus, one must guard against a data surprise triggering a reverse rally. It is not recommended to blindly take heavy positions before the data release; beware of being swept by violent fluctuations. Wait for the data to land before making decisions. The previously emphasized 77300-77800 range, originally a support zone below, was directly broken under PPI bearish pressure, completing a bottom-to-top reversal and now becoming a key resistance above. The market dipped to 76400 in the early morning, continuously running below the range without an effective breakout. As long as the rebound cannot hold above this range, the weak pattern will not change. The overall market remains weak; maintain a high-short strategy, be sure to set stop losses, and avoid risks from sudden news reversals.
Friday Evening Operation Strategy
Bitcoin: Short near 77300-77800, target 76100, swing target 75500, stop loss 78200, 78500
Ethereum: Short near 2470-2490, target 2410, swing target 2360, stop loss 2510, 2530ZEC 今日一度回落至 $1,070附近，24小时跌幅接近 14%。经历前期连续暴涨后，这种幅度的回撤并不意外。 但如果拉长时间来看，ZEC 依然非常强势： 📈 20日涨幅仍接近 40%+ 📈 30日涨幅仍超过 100% 📉 短线则明显进入降温阶段 这次上涨背后并不只是市场情绪。 Grayscale 的 ZCSH Zcash ETF 自 8月25日上市以来持续吸引资金，近期资产规模已经突破 5亿美元，持有的 ZEC 也超过 55万枚，说明机构资金对隐私赛道的关注正在增加。 所以我不会因为今天的大阴线就直接否定 ZEC 的中期趋势。 但现在也不是我会急着抄底的位置。👀 🔥 强趋势 + 短线动能衰减 真正需要观察的是： ➡️ $1,050–$1,100 能否形成承接 ➡️ 下跌过程中成交量是否继续放大 ➡️ 买盘能否重新推动价格站回 $1,150–$1,200 ➡️ ETF资金流入能否继续抵消获利盘压力 同时，当前宏观环境并不友好。油价和美债收益率上升正在增加风险资产压力，市场也在等待美国通胀数据以及下周的美联储利率决定。 所以我的思路很简单： 趋势还强，但不追跌。 如果买方重新Qingfeng's Practical Trading Layout Record | Weekly Review 9.7-9.10
Repeated shocks, continuous fluctuations in both directions, an ongoing play of inducements and counter-inducements.
Following K-line signals, dual-direction phased layouts without attachment to battles, timely stops and entries.
BTC accumulated 10,690 points | ETH accumulated 374 points
9 years of ups and downs in the crypto circle, only trading BTC/ETH mainstream contracts in mid-short term. No data overreading, no guessing news, only reading K-line language. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The Clarity Act hasn't been voted on yet
XRP has already dropped about eight percent
The price has returned to around $1.35
The regulatory boot is still hanging in the air
The regulatory coins themselves have already crouched down; September 15 is the voting day
Strictly speaking, it's more like a procedural hurdle
Only after passing it can things move forward
But the market doesn't care if it's the final review or a preliminary round
As long as the date is marked on the calendar
Narrative coins have to pay the ticket first. Bitcoin has fallen below 77,000 these days
It's more like paying the bill for PPI and interest rate expectations
Not repaying XRP's regulatory debt
Ethereum dropped below 2,500
Still the same macro pricing
In the European and US sessions, they look like safe havens
But in reality, they're just bigger in size
The fall sounds heavier
Dogecoin is even less qualified to be a safe haven
Sliding from around 0.10 to 0.084
The old high Beta problem strikes again
Regulatory coins sneeze first
Meme coins cough along
Not because it was also written into the bill
But because when the risk switch is turned off
Retail positions are reduced first, so will it follow?
It already is following
Just the path is different
$XRP is taking an event discount
$BTC and $ETH are taking an interest rate discount
DOGE is taking an emotion discount
Before the bill lands, don't think of mainstream and meme coins as safe houses
Mistaken killings can happen together
But official recognition is hard to come by together
Voting on the 15th
The Fed on the 16th
Two days of consecutive announcements
The ones that fall first don't necessarily rebound first
The ones that fall later aren't necessarily more resilient Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and which data points need to be observed going forward.
September 10th saw heavier settlements: Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of about 280 million in one day, the heaviest since July; Ethereum also saw an outflow of about 30 million, and Solana had a small net outflow. Ripple, on the other hand, slightly absorbed about 5 million that day, becoming one of the few to still have inflows.
Institutions have been selling for several days, but the spot market slightly bounced in the evening, meaning selling pressure and short-term rebounds are offsetting each other. You can go long, but don’t mistake this green candle as a full return of funds. Dogecoin lacks institutional stories, so it’s even more important to hold 0.08. Without breaking 83,000 effectively, it’s still just a rebound within the range.
Going forward, watch whether BTC/ETH ETFs can continue, whether SOL funds continue to slow, whether XRP funds and price diverge, and since DOGE’s holdings are weak, it’s even more important to maintain stop-losses. Take profits when you can, but stop-losses are more important than taking profits.A trader achieved a 46.68% return in 90 days, yet the current group of followers collectively has -612,829.85 USDT.
This is not a "who is right or wrong" conclusion, but two sets of OKX public data from Milies L:
Trader's profit curve: positive
Current followers' group summary: negative
His maximum drawdown over 90 days is 7.04%, ATS is 64.08, status FORMAL, credibility HIGH.
The contrast is significant, but the reason cannot be directly inferred from the public data. The followers' entry times, position settings, and exit points are not visible; OKX also does not provide a fixed historical window for copyTotalPnl.
Therefore, I prefer to treat this as a research reminder:
When looking at lead traders, you cannot only look at how much they earned.
You also need to see whether the followers ultimately made money in sync.
I will continue to track such samples of "trader profits, followers losses."
Data is as of this collection.
This article is based solely on OKX public data for trader behavior research and does not constitute investment advice.$LAB: Unlocking on the 12th, is this big drop a shakeout or a trap?
The current intense market volatility has two possibilities.
The first is what you suspect: the main players deliberately shake out all the weak retail investors. When the unlocking window arrives on September 12, they use buybacks and market making to push the price up, attracting new funds with the unlocking narrative.
But the second risk is greater: the unlocking itself is a huge selling pressure. The current drop is pricing in this selling pressure early; the shakeout is just an illusion, and on the unlocking day, the market will be dumped and escape.
The biggest hidden risk for LAB is evident in on-chain data: the project insiders hold over 95% of the token supply, with a large concentration of chips in a few big holders. From August to December, there will be monthly unlocking releases, continuously adding new circulating supply to the market. This has happened before: public investors’ lockups were unilaterally extended, and by the time unlocking occurred, the token price was nearly zero—a cautionary precedent.
Although the project has a buyback and burn mechanism, the scale of buyback funds is questionable in offsetting the selling pressure caused by unlocking. Big holders have too many chips; if they choose to sell, they can easily crash the market, and buyback efforts will struggle to fully absorb the massive selling pressure.
Shakeout completed, price rally after unlocking
If big holders choose to lock their tokens and not sell, buybacks continue to exert strength, and the overall market (BTC/ETH) environment cooperates, the shakeout will complete, short-term chips will be washed out, and the price will rise after unlocking using the narrative. Risk: even if the price rallies, it is likely to be a pulse move, with highly concentrated chips that can be dumped at any time. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The AI bull market isn't over yet, but the era of "just touching AI means a rise" is really over.🔥
Tonight's $ORCL and $ADBE earnings reports are the most direct examples.
Let's look at Oracle first.
Q1 revenue was $19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year; cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, and the FY2027 full-year revenue target was raised to $90 billion.
AI infrastructure demand is still there, with orders, revenue, and guidance all solid, so after the earnings release, the stock rose about 7% in after-hours trading.
Now let's look at Adobe.
Revenue was $6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and AI-related ARR grew more than 150% year-over-year.
But the market's response was: a drop.
It fell about 2.3% after hours.
Why?
Because the market is no longer satisfied with "AI is growing fast" and is starting to ask:
How much real revenue has AI brought you? How much profit? When can it be realized?
This is actually the biggest change in the current AI market:
Having AI ≠ guaranteed rise
Having growth ≠ guaranteed rise
Only companies that can sustainably turn AI into orders, revenue, and profit deserve a market premium.
So from now on, when looking at AI companies, I will focus on these 4 things:
• Whether AI has truly converted into orders and revenue
• Whether there is pricing power, and if ARPU and profit margins can be increased
#DailyOrbit I have a 0.2083 short position on $ADA with 50x leverage. The current price is 0.2021, with an unrealized profit of +148.82%. At that time, I saw it rebound to the previous resistance level and stall. With Grayscale withdrawing its spot ETF application and the ecosystem TVL shrinking, the bullish narrative couldn't hold, so I shorted based on the structure.
ADA has been highly volatile recently; futures trading volume once surged to six times that of spot, with rapid spikes under high leverage. Although there are positives, institutional confidence is lacking, and there is heavy selling pressure above.
I’m not stubborn with the 50x short position; I’m locking in most of the unrealized profit first, moving the stop loss on the remaining position above the cost. If it breaks back above 0.208 or rebounds with volume, I’ll exit—no hard holding. $BTC $ARB One hour left until the CPI announcement, let's speculate a bit on the current script of the Americans
Currently, the US Treasury's Bassett is frequently leaking information
And the US Treasury has a team of operators aiming to reduce the real debt burden of outstanding government bonds
Because the current US federal debt is huge, long-term bonds carry a long-term interest burden. If they can repurchase and cancel bonds when long-term bond prices plummet, it's equivalent to settling huge long-term debt at a discount: the same dollars can buy back bonds with a higher face value, directly cutting future interest expenses for decades
So how to push long-term bonds down cheaply? It requires strong inflation data and rising expectations of interest rate hikes.
At this time, the Treasury steps in to repurchase long-term bonds, redeeming high face value debt with less cash, effectively a "debt discount clearance"
So the script is:
Endure inflation, maintain high interest rate expectations
Once the repurchase task is nearly done, shift to a narrative of rate cuts
This script can also help Wash, stabilizing the so-called independence of the Federal Reserve
If this script is truly followed, manipulating tonight's CPI data is possible, but a compromise of not manipulating and letting Wash hawk out is also possible
$XAU is very likely to break below 4300 to test 4250
$BTC will completely break below 76300 to test 75000
$ETH is relatively strong but also very likely to break below 2435 to test the 2360 level
This conspiracy theory essay does not represent investment advice
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 25跌到0.045，再跌到0.04，这不是洗盘，是一场缓慢的挤压。 你有没有想过，真正被清算的，可能不是空头，而是那些一路补仓的人？ 看到LAB这段走势，我第一反应不是"跌好多"，而是衍生品结构已经很脆了。从25一路滑到0.65，再到现在0.045，中间每一次看似企稳，都像是给抄底的人递了一把更锋利的刀。均价0.25，现价0.045，还在准备0.04补最后一单——这不是交易计划，这是被行情拖着走。 BEAT也一样。6到0.13再到0.07，中间反弹到0.2没走，现在只能看着。两个仓位都"不大"，但加起来，情绪已经被磨平了。真正的问题不是亏多少，而是仓位结构已经不允许你理性判断了。 这里市场实际在交易什么？不是"会不会反弹"，而是"谁先扛不住"。空头利润不小，多头被套不浅，资金费率如果持续偏负，挤压条件就在积累。但注意，挤压不等于反转，它只是让反弹更急、更短、更容易骗人进场。LAB和BEAT这种走势，反弹往往先杀空，再杀追多的人。 偏多的路径是：空头回补带动急拉，LAB回到0.07到0.1区间，BEAT摸0.12附近，给被套的人一次减仓窗口。偏空的风险是：没有真实买盘承接，反弹只是换一批$ETH This time I will treat it as a position in the altcoin market to buy
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns Risk-on again, and whether funds will flow again from BTC to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already seen significant capital inflows again, and currently about one-third of ETH supply is staked.
So if ETH returns to above 2400, I won’t treat it as a simple rebound trade.
I will first buy half.
Because if tonight’s CPI is lower than expected and interest rate trades suddenly reverse, high Beta mainstream coins like ETH might not give much time to buy slowly.
Conversely, if CPI explodes and it falls to 2300 or even lower, the remaining half is truly for catching panic selling.BTC, ETH, and crude oil all in critical condition, who is leading the pricing on the eve of CPI?
$BTC has declined for four consecutive days, hitting a low of 76410. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 71.3%, risk-free yields are increasing, and zero-coupon assets are under pressure. Institutions are buying in the 75500-76500 range, but trading volume is shrinking and the rebound is weak. If CPI exceeds expectations, 75000 will be tested.
$ETH rebounded from 2404 but with weak momentum. Exchange balances have dropped to 15.5 million, a multi-year low, but the price is still struggling around 2400. There were $347 million in liquidations in 24 hours, 86% of which were long positions. Once 2400 is broken, downside space opens up.
$CL crude oil plunged from 106.80 to 96.15, down 4.91%. The Gulf Cooperation Council plans to meet with Iran, squeezing out the supply cut premium. However, the Houthis seized Perim Island in the Mandeb Strait, so Red Sea risks remain. The oil price pullback is a short-term breather; shipping threats persist.
Three CPI scenarios: core month-on-month at 0.2%, easing rate hike pressure, BTC may recover 78000; 0.3%, rate hike almost certain, BTC tests 75000; above 0.3%, risk assets under full pressure.
The crude oil pullback provides a breathing window, but CPI is the real judge tonight.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $ZEN is the coin with my largest position
I am still adding during this pullback
ZEN is currently around $6.5, which is also the coin I have accumulated the most after buying along the way.
Why do I buy when ZEC drops, and also buy when ZEN drops?
Because the roles of these two positions are completely different.
ZEC now has a market cap exceeding $20 billion, while ZEN is still much smaller. Horizen has now migrated to the Base system, ZEN staking is also live, and the rewards come not only from DAO subsidies but also from sources officially listed such as L3 sequencer fees, zkVerify node earnings, and later protocol and application fee sharing.
$ZEN 🔥 CRYPTO AND THE MACRO SPIRAL
US PPI higher than expected, rising oil prices make the market cautious about Fed policy. $BTC is under pressure, while $ETH and $SOL show divergence.
Chain of effects to watch: Oil ↑ → inflation ↑ → interest rate expectations ↑ → USD/yields ↑ → crypto under pressure.
CPI and the upcoming Fed meeting will be the focus. Crypto is increasingly sensitive to macro flows, no longer moving independently.I really can't imagine how much pressure the crypto space would face if Trump loses Congress in the November midterm elections.
What the market is rushing for now might not just be a bull market, but the last window for crypto policy in the Trump era.
If the Republicans hold Congress, there is still room to advance the CLARITY Act; once the Democrats regain control, regulatory progress, legislation, and congressional oversight could all change.
More importantly, the current macro environment is also unfavorable: PPI exceeded expectations, CPI is about to be released, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and BTC spot ETF funds continue to be under pressure.
So what really scares the market is not regulation itself, but sudden policy shifts and disrupted expectations.
This round of BTC and ETH market movement is, to some extent, also a race against time.
How much longer can Trump's crypto policy window remain open?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI #CLARITYAct #FederalReserve #BTCTonight's CPI will decide life or death, with geopolitical and interest rate battles intensifying
U.S. stocks fell for the fourth consecutive trading day overnight. PPI data rebounded beyond expectations combined with Middle East tensions, oil prices surged, U.S. Treasury yields approached the 5% threshold, and market expectations for a September rate hike rose to nearly 70%.
Pre-market futures fluctuated slightly; Dow and S&P futures turned slightly positive, while Nasdaq futures weakened slightly. Growth stocks are more sensitive to interest rate changes, with cautious investor sentiment awaiting tonight's 8:30 PM CPI data release.
Market highlights
1. Oil: Geopolitical sentiment shifts rapidly
Signs of easing in the Red Sea situation caused WTI crude oil to drop sharply intraday, falling below the $100 mark. The short-term geopolitical premium quickly faded. However, note that Middle East conflicts are highly recurrent, and oil prices carry the risk of rebounding at any time. The risk of energy-driven inflation has not been fully eliminated.
2. U.S. Treasury market pressure remains
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovers at high levels, nearing the 5% psychological barrier. Even with oil prices falling, the massive U.S. fiscal deficit continues to pressure government bond supply, keeping yields elevated and persistently suppressing growth stock valuations.
3. Individual stock pre-market performance
Oracle's earnings report was positive, with pre-market gains near 7%; tech chip stocks like Nvidia and Micron strengthened slightly; defensive sectors showed relative resilience. The tech stock market highly depends on tonight's CPI results, as high-valuation growth sectors fear inflation exceeding expectations. $WLD has reached 0.4
Earlier, when WLD was at 0.48 and 0.50 dollars, I didn’t chase it.
I made it very clear that 0.4-0.42 is the price range where I want to bottom-fish.
Now it has not only reached that, $WLD has already returned to around 0.4 dollars.
So I won’t continue to be greedy for 0.38 or 0.35.
Because my logic for buying WLD is not based on short-term candlesticks, but on the development of AI to the point where "proving you are a real person" might become an internet infrastructure.
Earlier, World pushed ProveKit’s zero-knowledge proof capabilities toward the device side. If this path succeeds, the value of World ID will be much greater than just a simple AI concept coin.
Therefore, I will first buy back half of my planned position.$BTC 77,000 USD
I started to buy back the positions I reduced earlier
BTC has now returned to around 76,800–77,000 USD.
This drop was actually not unexpected.
Oil price $CL previously surged to around 110 USD, the US 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, and the market's pricing for a 25BP rate hike in September once reached nearly 70%. Yesterday's PPI didn't offer much comfort to the market.
But I need to clarify one thing:
Higher macro risks do not mean BTC has entered a new bear market.
I reduced leverage and shrank positions earlier precisely to wait for data risks to push the price down before buying again.
Now that 77,000 is very close to the key 76,000 level I've been watching, I won't just wait empty-handed anymore.
I'll buy half first.
If CPI continues to push $BTC down to 76,000 or even briefly below, I'll use the remaining half to handle it.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The Red Sea conflict flares up again, with Houthi forces harassing ships and attacking Saudi energy facilities. Maritime routes are in peril, and concerns over energy supply have spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Trump said that oil prices might only fall after the midterm elections in November, but no ceasefire or production increase measures have been announced yet. Therefore, high energy prices remain stuck, likely exceeding market expectations.
Although crude oil prices have dropped by more than 30%, the battle around the $100 mark is fierce. High oil prices push up inflation expectations, with about a 70% chance of a rate hike in September, suppressing risk assets.
On the BTC side, short-term pressure is obvious. Rising oil prices combined with rate hike expectations will lower risk asset valuations, and the cost of borrowing increases, reducing the appeal of interest-free assets like Bitcoin.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the more stubborn energy inflation is, the more the credit of fiat currencies is eroded. BTC, as a hard asset not controlled by sovereign powers, will have its narrative repeatedly reinforced.
Tonight's CPI is the key to short-term market direction. If inflation data remains hot, coupled with diesel prices approaching $6, inflation anxiety will continue to ferment, and BTC will likely test around 75,000. If core inflation unexpectedly cools and rate hike expectations fall, BTC will have a chance to rebound and recover. Geopolitical conflicts are just external disturbances; ultimately, the market depends on inflation data landing. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 UNI's Prospective Value Analysis for Building a Liquidity Network for All Assets
Core Positioning
Uniswap's goal is not just to be a crypto token exchange but to create a permissionless, programmable, cross-chain universal liquidity infrastructure network.
In theory, crypto tokens, stablecoins, MEME coins, RWA (real-world asset tokenization), and institutional compliant assets can all connect to this network to complete trading and market making, enabling any asset to have 24/7 on-chain liquidity without relying on centralized exchange listing reviews and high listing fees.
V4 Hooks modularity + Unichain Layer 2 + Permissioned pools are the three key technological pillars to realize the "liquidity network for all assets."
✅ Strategic Value Highlights
1. Greatly lowers the barrier to market creation for assets, unleashing massive liquidity for long-tail assets
Centralized exchanges have high listing costs, long cycles, and strict screening, leaving many small and long-tail assets without trading venues.
UNI's permissionless pool creation allows anyone to establish liquidity markets for any asset at very low marginal cost.
The $43.4 billion stablecoin trading volume in Q2 proves that the largest capital track of stable assets is already operational; on this basis, it can continue to accommodate MEME, native project tokens, bonds, funds, tokenized stocks, and other diversified assets, forming a liquidity reservoir for all asset categories.
2. V4 Hooks are programmable and compatible with both public permissionless pools and institutional compliant permissioned pools
- Regular pools: maintain DeFi's native permissionless nature, targeting ordinary users, suitable for crypto-native assets;
- Permissioned pools: embed compliance checks via Hooks, allowing only qualified investors to participate, supporting institutional tokenized funds like BlackRock BUIDL and bond-type RWA assets.
A single underlying network serving both retail and institutions, balancing free innovation and regulatory compliance, opening the gateway for traditional financial assets to go on-chain—this is the key advantage distinguishing it from other DEXs.
3. Unichain Layer 2 fills performance gaps, supporting large-scale full-asset circulation
Ethereum mainnet's high gas fees have hindered large, high-frequency, and RWA asset trading.
By building its own L2 Unichain, it reduces transaction gas and increases throughput, enabling massive diverse assets to be exchanged, rebalanced, and arbitraged at low cost, amplifying the liquidity network's capacity by an order of magnitude.
Stablecoin funds and institutional RWA funds can be massively deposited into Unichain, feeding back protocol fee revenue.
4. Value capture closed loop forms: the more assets and active trading, the stronger UNI's earnings and burn
After the UNIfication fee switch is implemented, a portion of the trading fees generated by all assets in the network flows back to the protocol and enters the TokenJar contract for buyback and burn.
The more asset types and total trading volume → the higher the protocol fees → the larger the burn scale.
If large-scale RWA tokenization is realized in the future, with massive real-world assets joining the network, it will bring incremental trading volume, further amplifying the cash flow flywheel, upgrading the UNI token from a pure governance token to an equity certificate of the universal asset liquidity network.
5. Cross-chain liquidity routing becomes the unified liquidity base for a multi-chain world
Multiple EVM chains have already been deployed, and with the UniswapX intent trading protocol, cross-chain assets can be routed and matched within the UNI network without being limited by a single public chain.
In the future, no matter which chain an asset is deployed on, it can call on UNI's liquidity, becoming the public liquidity infrastructure for the entire DeFi world📉 This round of BTC decline is not just a technical correction but a convergence of triple macro pressures.
① PPI as the direct trigger
US August PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, core PPI remains high. After the data release, BTC quickly fell from above 79,000 to below 77,000, indicating the market's heightened sensitivity to inflation.
② US-Iran situation + rising oil prices
Geopolitical conflicts pushed crude oil prices up. After oil prices broke $100, the market again worries about the chain "energy → inflation → prolonged tightening," naturally pressuring risk assets.
③ Rate hike expectations + rising US Treasury yields
September rate hike expectations have clearly intensified, with the 30-year US Treasury yield surpassing 5.35%. As risk-free yields continue to rise, capital's risk appetite for highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH decreases.
So the core issue now is not "why BTC suddenly dropped," but that macro conditions are simultaneously tightening liquidity expectations.
In the short term, focus on whether BTC can hold 76,000–77,000. If it holds, there is still a chance for a rebound; if it breaks down with volume, then continue to watch 74,000–75,000.
Don't guess the bottom or chase shorts; wait for price confirmation.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 📝 Today's Share
Oracle AI cloud surges 121%, but chip stocks crash first as a salute
Oracle's earnings exploded—Q1 revenue of 19.35 billion exceeded expectations, cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, remaining performance obligations surged to 664 billion, after-hours rose over 9%. Jensen Huang added: AI infrastructure spending expected to reach 3-4 trillion by 2030.
But the market didn't buy it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 2.66%, Intel fell over 5%, AMD fell over 3%, SK Hynix ADR fell over 5%, Micron and SanDisk fell over 4%. Japan and South Korea opened continuing the crash, Kioxia fell 6.6%.
The logic is very fragmented: the AI demand story is getting stronger, but chip stocks are having their valuations cut. PPI exceeded expectations + oil prices broke 100, the probability of rate hikes soared to 71.3%, high-valuation growth stocks took the first hit.
My thinking: Oracle's data shows AI capital expenditure hasn't stopped, the long-term logic for storage and computing power remains intact. But short-term rate hike expectations are pressing down, chip stocks will be very volatile. Wait for CPI to land, then see if the market cuts valuations first or recognizes the logic first.
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #日银年内再加息成焦点 周三在 AMA中跟各位老师讨论了未来AI主线的走向、AGI转向应用以及硬件趋势与未来，同时也谈到10年美债收益率逼近5%的问题 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% 我再次沿用了整个美股Q2财报季的核心逻辑，宏观决定你手中的钱贵不贵，而微观企业基本面则让你决定是否为当前的估值买单 在讨论到10年美债利率飙升的问题时，9号当晚恰逢财政部正式公布长债逆回购操作额度明细，我当时的观点是先看逆回购操作明细如何，再看首次逆回购增加额度后的市场反应 目前来看，财政部的逆回购名单长期来看是可以缓解长端流动性问题，同时理论上持续保持60亿单次回购+减少长债发售是可以抑制长端利率 不过现实问题是，短期市场面临高加息概率+高油价+高通胀预期+政府高赤字+特朗普外交失败的呢过多重不确因素，长债购买者信心不足，昨天的30年美债拍卖可以看出，买单是有，但是买家需要更低的长债价格才愿意购买，显然短期来看，贝森特的政策调控依旧无法改变长端利率走高的窘境 而目前，9月加息概率接近70%，今晚又要经历CPI考验，一旦概率突破70%来到80%，市场进一步为加息定价，长端利率继续上涨，而下周9月16日，一旦沃什领导🚨 $BTC short-term pressure has not yet been fully released!
Bitcoin has fallen below $77,000. Currently, it looks more like profit-taking and leverage liquidation after the previous rise, and it cannot yet be directly defined as a major trend reversal.
The core pressures behind this round of decline mainly come from three aspects:
① US PPI year-on-year rose to 5.4%, reigniting inflation concerns;
② US Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield once approaching 5%, clearly heating up rate hike expectations;
③ BTC spot ETF funds experienced outflows, with a net outflow of about $120 million on September 9, suppressing risk appetite.
At the same time, leveraged longs are being rapidly liquidated. During the last round of decline, the crypto market liquidation scale once exceeded $500 million. Altcoins generally fell more than BTC, indicating that funds are clearly shifting to defense.
📌 Key short-term levels:
Support: $75,500–$76,500
Resistance: $79,800–$80,500
Strong resistance: around $82,000
What will truly decide the direction next is still the US CPI + next week's FOMC.
If CPI continues to be hot, BTC may continue to test lower support; if inflation data is below expectations, the market may see a rapid recovery.
It now looks more like a macro data-driven adjustment rather than a complete end to the trend.
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCETF #Crypto #CPI #FOMCThe 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.95%, which presents a very straightforward short-term logic for BTC. As the Treasury yield approaches 5%, funding costs rise, and the appeal of interest-free assets is weakened.
The probability of a rate hike has risen to 70%, suppressing risk appetite, and BTC spot has also seen outflows. If CPI exceeds expectations again, Bitcoin may continue to dip near 75,000 in the short term.
The risk of debt monetization is also increasing. If a 5% yield fails to attract long-term capital to take over, ultimately the Federal Reserve or the Treasury will have to backstop it, which will further accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset will actually be strengthened in this chain.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The weekly level is still undisputed in a bear market. It is important to distinguish between a "technical bear market" and the "start of a new round of declines"—these two things cannot be equated now. Three pieces of solid evidence 1️⃣ Position: Still below all long-term moving averages. Down 39% from the ATH of $126,173 (well above the SEC's 20% threshold), 365-day moving average around $101,448, current price 76,909 24% below it, 50-week moving average around $81,800 (Galaxy gives bullish confirmation line), current price spread 6% 2️⃣ The rebound only recovered 28% from the cycle low of $57,750 to $76,909, just 28% of this wave of decline ($68,424), stuck in the weak rebound zone between 0.236 ($73,898) and 0.382 ($83,888). 0.382 hasn't even been touched, so it's not really a trend reversal. 3️⃣ From the weekly chart perspective, $126,173 → $57,750 are the main downtrend (-54%); now the rebound is just starting from $57,750. The major highs are still moving downward one after another. But there's a detail you might have overlooked: Weekly KDJ: K 75.8 / D 66.9 / J 93.6 K is above D, the golden cross is still alive—indicating the weekly rebound trend is still in progress and not over. But J value 93.6 has entered overbought, indicating the rebound is entering its later stage and the space is compressing.After the official debut of Apple's first foldable iPhone Duo, Apple's stock price surged 3.56% in a single day, reaching an intraday high of $326.74 and closing at $326.57, with the total market value breaking through the $4.76 trillion mark.
Many are curious how a mere 3% increase could leverage nearly $160 billion in market value growth? From the core logic of the capital market, this is not simply a chase after a new phone, but Wall Street's revaluation of Apple's business growth curve.
Valuation Premium Reshaped
Previously, the market generally worried that Apple was lagging behind competitors in the rollout pace of foldable screens and AI, with the stock price fluctuating around $300~$315. The iPhone Duo, anchored at a super high-end price of $1999, means the potential for increased unit gross margin and average selling price (ASP) has been unlocked, directly dispelling institutional concerns about hardware growth peaking.
Expectation Realization
Investors choose to vote with their feet, valuing Duo's strong lock-in ability for high-net-worth customers, as well as the spillover effects of subsequent high-margin Apple Intelligence subscriptions and ecosystem services.
Before the official release on October 23, $AAPL stock price will most likely consolidate on a high platform between $320~$330. In the short term, a slight pullback to take profits before the first batch of pre-sale data is disclosed cannot be ruled out.
In the medium to long term, this surge sets the breakthrough tone for the second half of the year. As long as the supply chain capacity and delivery times in the fourth quarter hold steady, Apple's stock price is expected to follow the momentum and reach a new historical high range of $340~$350.SanDisk's recent trend is actually driven not just by storage chips, but by the demand from AI data centers. The larger the model and the more data, the higher the demand for high-speed storage. As long as the market still believes that AI capital expenditure won't immediately halt, there are still stories to tell in storage, servers, and chips.
I believe SanDisk has no direct relation to BTC or ETH, but they share some similar market sentiment: US dollar liquidity, risk appetite for tech stocks, and capital's imagination for growth assets.
If SanDisk continues to strengthen, it indicates that capital is still willing to buy into AI and tech growth; if the US tech sector weakens overall, the crypto space usually can't remain unaffected. BTC might be relatively resilient, while ETH and altcoins will experience greater volatility.
But don't assume all assets are in a bull market just because the AI concept is rising. SanDisk depends on storage prices and orders, BTC depends on capital inflows, and ETH depends on whether it can keep up. The logic differs, and in the end, it all comes back to their respective fundamentals.
In the short term, I think you can watch whether tech stocks and the crypto space strengthen simultaneously. If US stocks, BTC, and ETH all rise with volume, then risk appetite has truly returned; if only a single sector surges, don't get too excited.Right now, the whole network is bearish, and many people are considering contrarian long positions. Let's objectively discuss this approach and see the outcome at 8:30 tonight.
Contrarian trading isn't simply going against the crowd; the key is to see whether the bears have already priced in all the bad news. BTC has already dropped below 77,000, and after the PPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September has hit 70%. Many short positions were actually opened early, and the market consensus on bearish expectations is already quite thorough.
In this situation, if tonight's CPI is lower than expected, it will trigger a short squeeze, with a large number of shorts closing positions simultaneously, pushing the price to rebound. This is the profit logic behind contrarian long positions. But the premise is that contrarian longs are not blind ambushes now; you can't gamble. Real opportunities only appear in two scenarios: one is when the data is clearly below expectations, and the other is when the price quickly dips and then shows a clear bottoming candlestick, confirming the bears' weakening. Only then is it worthwhile to lightly test long positions.
The biggest risk is that CPI exceeds expectations, confirming the bearish consensus, with bears adding to their positions, pushing the price directly down to 74,000. Bottom-fishing against the trend can easily get trapped. Don't assume that just because everyone is bearish, a reversal will definitely come; only when expectations are disproven will a rebound occur.
Even if you want to try, position size must be kept to a minimum, with stop-loss set below 74,000. If broken, exit decisively without holding the position. Don't aim too far for targets; prioritize the resistance zone between 79,000 and 80,000. Take profits in batches there, only capturing the rebound from short covering, not holding for a major reversal or long-term position. The BOJ risk is less the next hike than the pace after it.
With September fully priced in, Nakagawa's warning on faster tightening makes the policy path more important than the meeting itself. My read: a hike that meets expectations may matter less for global risk assets than guidance that forces carry traders to reassess how long cheap yen funding can last.
#BOJRateHikeInFocus Based on current market data and oil price trends, I estimate that the probability of the US August CPI year-over-year rate exceeding expectations (above 3.4%) is relatively higher. The detailed analysis is as follows:
1. Oil price increase is the core driver
August international oil prices have continued to rebound, with WTI crude oil breaking through the $100/barrel mark. The US CPI data is highly correlated with international oil prices, and rising oil prices usually directly push up the overall CPI.
Historical patterns show that the CPI year-over-year growth rate curve follows WTI price fluctuations. Currently, oil prices are at a relatively high level after a surge, so CPI is very likely to experience a resonant increase.
2. Market expectations themselves may be conservative
The market expects the overall August CPI year-over-year rate to remain flat at 3.4%, with the core CPI year-over-year rate falling to 2.4%. However, considering that the August PPI year-over-year growth rate has already exceeded expectations, rising to 5.4%, and that the PPI sub-items directly included in PCE are strong, this suggests that the actual CPI performance may be stronger than consensus expectations.
3. Probability estimates
Above expectations (>3.4%): probability about 50%-55%. The main supports are oil prices breaking $100, PPI exceeding expectations transmission, and the energy sub-item contribution possibly expanding significantly.
Meeting expectations (=3.4%): probability about 30%
Below expectations (<3.4%): probability about 15%-20%. The risk point is that oil prices fell below $70 in June #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction
The US August PPI data exceeded expectations, upstream inflation rebounded, directly pushing up rate hike expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, triggering a liquidation cascade in the crypto market, with $BTC quickly plunging. As a leading indicator of inflation, rising upstream costs have the market worried that consumer-end CPI will also exceed expectations.
Tonight's CPI will be the key decisive factor, directly influencing the Federal Reserve's decision at the September meeting.
Three scenarios:
1. CPI higher than expected: rate hike probability further increases, US Treasury yields continue to rise, risk assets come under pressure, and crypto is prone to sharp spikes down;
2. CPI meets expectations: market sentiment temporarily eases, but the expectation of sustained high interest rates remains, and the market returns to volatility;
3. CPI lower than expected: rate hike trades retreat, bringing an emotional rebound, but a single data point is unlikely to reverse the macro trend.
Personal view: The PPI exceeding expectations has already given the market a warning in advance, lowering the tolerance for tonight's CPI.
1. Do not treat a single inflation data point as a trend reversal signal; even if CPI cools down, it does not mean an immediate rate cut; if data is hot, it does not mean a sustained one-sided crash.
2. Data releases often see buying on expectations and selling on facts; market volatility will be amplified by leverage, with altcoins experiencing more intense fluctuations than BTC.
3. Currently, the crypto market is also affected by ETF fund outflows and the CLARITY Act vote; macro factors are only one part, so do not focus solely on CPI for trading. Central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe are simultaneously tightening liquidity! Japan's rate hike probability is 97%, Europe makes the first move, Bitcoin at 76000 awaits CPI to decide its fate
Global liquidity gates are closing, and this wave is no small matter.
Japan: The swap market has priced the probability of a rate hike next week at 97%, moving from 1.0% toward 1.25%, approaching a 31-year high. Once the yen carry trade reverses, the liquidation will be like a receding tide, first crashing high leverage.
Europe: Raised rates again last night, deposit rate at 2.5%, and signaled that inflation will remain above target for a long time. Middle East oil prices add fuel, forcing the ECB to tighten despite difficulties.
US: PPI overall is not soft, core slightly cools down, signals conflict. However, funds have already rushed ahead for an October rate hike; tonight's CPI is the final verdict.
My judgment: All three are tightening liquidity together. The most dangerous is not the rate hikes themselves, but the chain liquidation of hundreds of billions of dollars in yen carry trades. The August 2024 episode is still fresh, with BTC plunging over 20% in a week, and positions are even more crowded now. 76000 is not an iron bottom, just a temporary stand before the referee's whistle.
Workers don't earn much in a day; don't catch a flying knife at this level. Before CPI is released, move less and wait for the cards to be dealt.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 Oracle Up, Adobe Down: AI rally is not finished, but easy AI hype pump era is finished! Both earnings prove one thing - Wall Street no longer buys AI story, they only reward companies who actually make money from AI. Oracle: Q1 Sales $19.3B (+30% YoY), Cloud infra +121% YoY, FY27 target lifted to $90B. Stock +7% after hours because demand, bookings, sales and guidance all strong. Adobe: Sales $6.76B (+13% YoY), AI ARR +150% YoY, yet stock -2.3% after hours. Everyone asking: AI so strong but totaLast night’s PPI came in hotter than expected, and historically, the probability of tonight’s CPI also exceeding expectations is relatively high. As a result, rate-hike expectations have been steadily increasing, putting additional pressure on the market.
However, Trump’s choice of Walsh is not necessarily aligned with a higher-rate policy. sdOh ho, brothers, why short altcoins? The mainstream coins are steadily falling, the market is dropping every day, and our $BTC is so good, steadily making profits!
Today, Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 mark under multiple macroeconomic negative impacts, with a 24-hour drop of 3.165%, hitting an intraday low of $76,464, a near one-week low. My short position at 76,609 is already steadily profitable.
The driving force behind this drop is not internal issues within the crypto circle, but systemic tightening of the macro environment.
First, PPI data triggered rate hike panic. The US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.353%, the highest level in 19 years. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to about 70%. For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, a risk-free rate above 5% significantly raises holding costs.
Second, the liquidation wave forms a negative feedback loop. In the past 24 hours, $454 million worth of positions were liquidated across the network, with long positions accounting for $360 million or 79%, affecting 96,485 traders. After the PPI data release, over $190 million of long positions were forcibly liquidated within 60 minutes, creating a "drop—liquidation—further drop" chain.
Third, funding rates weaken. The funding rate is currently only +0.0039%, longs are still paying but very mildly, indicating leveraged longs are being punished. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have seen net outflows totaling over $147 million in two consecutive days, weakening buying power.
Technically, RSI has dropped to 31.97, close to oversold but not yet bottomed. The $76,000-$77,000 support zone is critical; if broken, a quick drop to $74,000-$75,000 may follow.
No matter how aggressively altcoins rally, one correction wipes them out. Shorting BTC steadily profits; this is the right path. Brothers, do you think BTC will drop to $75,000? Let's discuss in the comments!
$ETH $ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 After yesterday's PPI release
I started to feel that the market situation was a bit unfavorable
After the US PPI was announced yesterday, I actually became more cautious than before.
August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and has reached 5.4% year-on-year. On the surface, the month-on-month figure meets expectations, but the underlying data is not good: commodity prices rose 1.1% in a single month, energy rose 4.2%, and diesel surged 24.1%. More notably, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services also rose 0.3%.
This indicates that the current inflation pressure is no longer just an oil price issue; some costs are spreading to transportation, aviation, healthcare, and other sectors.
The market quickly repriced. After the PPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose from about 62% to around 70%.
So I have been reducing risk recently, not because I suddenly turned bearish on cryptocurrency, but because the macro environment is indeed starting to feel uncomfortable.
The real determinant for the next move is still tonight's CPI.
The market currently expects CPI month-on-month +0.4%, core CPI +0.2%. If the core data also significantly exceeds expectations, then the PPI will no longer be an isolated data point, and the market may start trading "inflation resurgence + Federal Reserve rate hikes again". #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
The core of Oracle's latest earnings report is not about how impressive the numbers are, but that it has answered half of the question "Can AI make money?" AI cloud revenue grew by 121%, faster than last quarter's 93%, and the remaining performance obligations increased from 638 billion to 664 billion, indicating that the orders are not just promises but are being fulfilled. A 1.6% rise after hours is not much, but the market is willing to give positive feedback, showing that the logic of this earnings report is recognized.
Adobe is in an awkward position. Despite beating expectations and raising guidance, its shares fell 2.29% after hours. The problem is not the numbers but the pace—the market wants to see if AI features have brought real subscription growth.
The comparison between Oracle and Adobe perfectly illustrates that the AI narrative has entered its second phase: previously it was about who invested more and had a louder story; now it's about who can turn investment into revenue. Oracle sells the shovels, with high revenue visibility; Adobe uses the shovels, and the market's patience for its AI monetization is clearly much lower.
For BTC, this logic is indirect. AI infrastructure capital expenditure is still expanding, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle all investing heavily in building data centers. Fiat currency credit continues to be consumed, and the long-term narrative for non-sovereign assets remains unchanged. But short-term pricing power lies with the CPI, and the level at 76,900 is sideways; the direction will be revealed tonight. Financial data is the entry ticket, but the ability to deliver is the pricing anchor. I agree with this, and it applies not only to AI companies but also to crypto projects.$WLD USDT is at $0.3963, and the interesting part isn’t the original rally — it’s how quickly the catalyst faded. Kalshi’s regulated WLD futures launch helped push WLD toward $0.5059 on Sept. 8. Since then, price has fallen back toward $0.40, with OKX showing today’s low near $0.3947. That tells me the market still needs to prove that the new access point creates sustained demand, rather than just a short-lived liquidity event. Bias: WAIT I’m watching $0.3947. If it holds and WLD reclaims $0.40The initiative held for twenty-one months changed hands overnight. For the first time, the open interest in altcoin perpetual contracts surpassed that of Bitcoin. This is not just the gain or loss of a single piece; it is a shift in the entire board's momentum. From the perspective of a grandmaster, I must tell you: the accumulation of chips never indicates direction; it only represents the volume of the powder keg.
Bitcoin perpetual open interest stands at $23.9 billion, accounting for about 37% of the total. This ratio itself is a signal. When the troop density on the main battlefield decreases, and the flanks begin to stack densely, the first thing you should do is not cheer but press your finger on the chess clock and recalculate every move. Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, ZEC—these pieces each occupy new squares, and their combined advance loosens the central area.
Pay special attention to ZEC. Its open interest has climbed to about $2.4 billion. When the price broke through the $1,000 mark, approximately $34 million in shorts were forcibly liquidated. This is the scenario I am most familiar with and most alert to in my profession: a sacrifice to lure the enemy, forcing them to concede on the wrong square. Short liquidations are the market making tactical exchanges for you, but what remains after the exchange is a more open midgame, not the safety of an endgame. The last time altcoin open interest led was in December 2024, followed by severe pullbacks in several mid-cap tokens, while Bitcoin remained steady as a throne. History does not repeat the exact moves but repeats the structure.
Next, look at the linkage between US stock token targets and the broader market. These targets are essentially another partition of the same game, dragging traditional financial troop formations into the crypto midgame. When leverage stacks in the same direction at the same time, any unexpected move will trigger a chain reaction of exchanges. Rising open interest means rising leverage, not rising direction. I have seen too many players mistake heat for advantage, only to be checkmated by a simple restraint on the 30th move.
True strength is not counting how many troops you have but how much breath your opponent still has. In this game, the flanks are crowded, the center is suspended, and the king’s surroundings seem calm but actually have fuses buried in every square. My judgment is simple: the initiative has already been handed over; now let’s see who makes the first mistake. #altperpoitopsbtcFor tonight's CPI, I lean towards "neutral to slightly bearish for BTC," but the real direction is not decided solely by the year-over-year CPI, rather by whether the core CPI and month-over-month figures exceed expectations. Current market expectations: CPI YoY 3.4%, core CPI YoY 2.4%, CPI MoM about +0.4%, core CPI MoM about +0.2%. My forecast * 🟢 Below expectations: CPI ≤3.3% / core ≤2.3% → rate cut expectations rise → USD and interest rates weaken → BTC leans bullish * 🟡 Meets expectations: 3.4% / 2.4% → initial volatility with wicks up and down * 🔴 Above expectations: CPI ≥3.5% or core ≥2.5% → rate hike expectations rise → BTC short-term bearish Currently, the complications are rising oil prices, strong PPI, and tariff pressures, all of which may cause inflation stickiness to rise again. Additionally, tonight's CPI is an important inflation data point before the Fed meeting on September 15–16. The market has already significantly raised rate hike expectations for September, so volatility tonight may be relatively high.