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3. SpaceX unlocks plunged 13.61%: The largest unlocking of restricted shares in history, with market value shrinking by over $100 billion. Dragging down global tech stock sentiment, Nvidia bucked the trend and rose, with funds clustering around certain earnings targets. Pressure to unlock shares has become a core short-term variable for tech stocks.8.6 日内深度复盘｜非农前夕三件大事：黄金结构转多，ETH巨鲸屯货，BTC日线反转
黄金破位、ETH吸筹、BTC等非农——三重信号指向同一个方向
ETH3.6亿机构级吸筹，聪明钱卡情绪低点建仓
链上事实：同一实体4个多签钱包，48小时内从FalconX、Galaxy Digital、BitGo接收 101,131 ETH（约3.63亿美元），无即时转出。
三个关键细节
机构级OTC/托管流出 → 不是散户碎单。
接收后不抛 → “屯”不是“倒”。
时间点卡在BTC 6.4万摩擦、市场喊“牛没了”的纠结期，类似ETF获批前窗口。
叙事叠加：Bitwise CIO称SEC“Project Crypto”演讲是五年路线图，ETH/L1/DeFi尚未充分定价 → 机构提前卡位监管拐点。
BTC：非农定方向，64500是分水岭
盘面：BTC重回64000–64500，日线低位反转+踩中轨，本周反弹约2000点；前高/强压在 66300–66500。
多空路径
非农继续弱（就业少）→ 加息预期再降 → BTC看64500上看66300，概率偏大；原64200–64500空单应止损。
非农强 → 收益率拉升 → 假突破回打，66500前高反成最保险空点。
中期天花板：通胀与高利率不解除，“不跌也涨不高”，难走单边疯牛。
黄金：压几个月的下行结构被往上打，偏多但不等于无脑追
现状：现货黄金约4246–4265美元/盎司，单日涨超4%，近7周高位，4260上方高位震荡。
为什么突然强（宏观+结构共振）
美债收益率下行：10Y约4.61%、2Y约4.20%，持有黄金机会成本降低。
美元走弱：美元指数破100至99.7附近，非美买盘成本降低。
美伊缓和+油价跌：霍尔木兹重开预期压住通胀预期，市场不再押美联储继续加息。
ADP仅4.4万（预期7万），就业走弱 → 加息概率从约70%降至约56%。
技术面：5个月下行通道+CTA空头堆积，破4200触发空头回补逼空，不是纯基本面买盘。
真正大考：周五7月非农。若就业强+收益率拉升 → 这波突破易被打回；若继续弱 → 偏多结构延续。
美联储困局：不敢加也不敢松，利率锁在3.75%的原因
撕裂数据：
就业端：ADP连续走弱、非农增量递减 → 喊“别再加”。
物价端：PCE/CPI仍在3.3%高位 → 喊“必须加”。
加vs松的后果
加息：抑通胀但美元强、就业更差、风险资产（BTC）跌。
降息：通胀顽固化、美元购买力降，资金跑向BTC/黄金，但物价反噬。
结论：半年不动3.75%，不是“稳”，是双向风险都不敢接。
一句话串起来
ETH是机构卡监管拐点的闷声吸筹，BTC卡在64500等周五非农选边，黄金是“弱就业+弱美元+逼空”的宏观反弹——美联储不敢动，所以所有资产都在拿数据赌方向。
以上为技术面推演，不构成投资建议，合约注意严控仓位与止损。$BTC $ETH On the US side, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD have been swinging quite a bit these days. Be sure to control your positions. Don't get carried away by bulls or bears—just follow the rhythm and ride the waves.
On the counterfeiter side, my strategy is to wait for the rebound to lighten positions and test shorts; chasing long positions can easily hit the peak.
$BICO, $HMSTR, $RESOLV, $GRVT, $ACT, $SAHARA, $LIT, $GRASS, $PEPE, $BONK, $WIF, $FLOKI, $SHIB these value coins all rebound to bear.only records how prices validate judgments.
I’m not chasing new highs now, nor paying shorting costs prematurely for a pullback that hasn’t started. Positions stay in the trend, cash waits for price.
Data notes: S&P 500 closing data as of August 4, 2026; historical pullback dates and magnitudes based on S&P 500 daily data; Fed meeting dates from the official FOMC calendar; OKX product rules from the unified tokenized stock spot official description. BTC real-time prices and condition ranges as of August 5, 2026. This is personal research and conditional trading plan, not investment advice.
#XSPY #SPX #BTC #USStocks #Bitcoin #OKX #RiskManagement #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 "S&P Hits Another Record High: Liquidating to Wait for a Pullback May Be the Costliest Decision in August"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 93
Aspirin · A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,736.52 points, up 1.8%, hitting another all-time high; the year-to-date gain is about 13%. I did not chase the rally last night, nor did I liquidate my core index positions. The risk of a pullback in the second half of the year remains, but a properly sized pullback could still settle above today’s level.
BTC is still hovering around 64.4K. I’m reserving new funds for the S&P’s pullback range, leaving only two BTC contract alerts at 63.5K and 69.2K. Here’s a calculation many haven’t seriously considered.
1. A 10% drop doesn’t necessarily give you a lower buying point
Assuming the S&P rises 12% from 7,736.52 points and then pulls back 10%: 7,736.52 × 1.12 × 0.90 = 7,798.41. The pullback sounds large, but the level is still 0.8% higher than today. Even if it rises 8% and then falls 10%, the index only returns to about 7,520 points, a discount of just 2.8%.
"Waiting for a 10% pullback" is not a complete strategy. Those liquidating to wait must correctly guess the top, the timing of the pullback, and the re-entry point. Near all-time highs, there is little trapped supply, trend capital remains, and the market can easily clear out premature shorts before completing the expected correction.
2. In three midterm election years, risks heat up in late summer
In the past three U.S. midterm years, the S&P’s second-half rhythm was indeed similar: in 2014, it peaked around September 19, pulled back about 10%, and bottomed in mid-October; in 2018, weakness began around September 21, with a roughly 20% correction lasting until December; in 2022, the local high came earlier on August 16, with the low still waiting until mid-October.
The sample size is only three, and 2022 was still a bear market, so this year shouldn’t be seen as a replay. History provides a risk window: earliest mid-August, more commonly #ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified
The ADP data is out: 44,000, far below the expected 70,000. For the first two months, it was around 98,000 or 95,000 yuan, but this month it's been cut in half. The ISM services employment sub-item also fell below 50, marking the fourth contraction in the past five months.
Looking at the total volume alone, this data indeed tells the market that "employment is cooling down." The logic chain is straightforward—weak employment weakens confidence in raising interest rates. BTC briefly surged to 64,500, and the US Dollar Index was also falling.
But if you only see this layer, you might miss another signal.
Look at the service industry. Of the 44,000 new items, the service sector accounted for 47,000, and goods production was negative. Leisure and catering lost 11,000 yuan, and trade transportation cost 8,000 yuan. Finance and professional services are still adding staff. People are moving from the consumer side to the financial side, indicating that the logic that "high interest rates are eroding terminal demand" is becoming reality.
Look at the salary. Those who stayed on saw a 4.4% increase, while those who switched jobs rose by 7%. Companies are hiring fewer people, but the cost of recruiting them keeps rising. If wages go up, it's hard for service prices to go down. If inflation in the service sector continues to be pushed upward, the cooling will not be as rapid.
Let's look at the Fed's internal affairs. Kashkari and Cook are inclined to raise rates as early as September; Paulson says we need to wait and see the data; Williams says if inflation doesn't come down, action is needed. Three directions, completely different from the same channel.
Kashkari put it most bluntly—"No call for large rate hikes, but stay open." This means: add it to the point of adding it, just don't go too fast. This divergence is more important than the data itself.
The data is dovish, with the probability of rate hikes rising from 80% to 56%. But wage and services still have two hidden pitfalls, so it's unlikely the Fed will completely pivot just because of an ADP.
After the news broke, BTC surged to 64,500, but this level is just a few dozen dollars away from the previous high. If the nonfarm payrolls also weaken on Friday and rate cut expectations are confirmed, BTC may be able to move upward. If the nonfarm payroll surprise is strong, today's bullish candlestick is just a false breakout in short-term sentiment.
The key is non-farm payrolls. ADP can only tell one thing—the market is moving in the same direction, not just having a direction. $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀【市场正在交易什么？】 ElizaOS代币因创始人宣布项目“死亡”，剩余金库已全部转移用于代币持有者诉讼和解，且后续项目开发不再关联任何加密货币，单日暴跌19%创历史新低，市场正在集中抛售该AI代理概念相关代币。 【真正值得关注的是】 本次事件核心是项目方 treasury 处置引发的信任崩塌，并非赛道基本面恶化，暂未对大盘形成明显联动影响。 【未来48小时观察】 需关注ElizaOS是否会出现进一步清算抛压，以及AI代理赛道其他相关代币是否会被短期情绪连带影响，同时留意后续诉讼进展的公开信息。 #BTC #ETHGold surged 4% in one day, climbing back above $4,200.
BTC, however, barely moved. My judgment:
**It's not that BTC has lost its 'digital gold' logic, but rather that the market doesn't treat the two as the same type of trading at all. **
This round of gold rally is very straightforward:
The US dollar weakened.
U.S. Treasury yields declined.
Funds repurchased defensive assets.
But BTC is now facing a different logic:
ETF funds are not strong enough.
Participation in the crypto market is relatively low.
There was no significant return of venture capital.
So don't just ask when gold prices rise:
"Why doesn't BTC follow you?"
Many people buying gold now are doing so to reduce risk.
BTC buyers still need stronger risk appetite and liquidity.
This is the biggest difference between the two.
My view:
Gold breaking above 4200 is a strong signal.
But for BTC, what is truly worth watching is not gold.
Instead: **When will the funds be willing to take on risk again? **
If the following arises in the future:
The US dollar continues to weaken
+
U.S. Treasury yields declined
+
BTC ETFs continue to flow in steadily again
Only then will BTC truly take over.
So I wasn't surprised at all that gold rose first this time.
What's really interesting is:
**If gold keeps rising while BTC remains unmoved, it means the market is now seeking "safe haven," not "risk-taking." **
Do you think BTC will catch up, or will gold continue to stand strong on its own?
$BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? Today's $BTC ETF data is crucial.
IBIT withdrew 5,073.95 BTC, about $327 million, from Coinbase Prime in the past day.
When I look at this kind of data, I don't just look at the inflow and outflow itself,
What I'm more concerned about is whether institutions have truly moved BTC from a "custody state" to a "holding" state.
Because once continuous withdrawals begin, it means the funds want not just short-term trading, but longer-term allocation.
This is also what I have always thought is BTC's strength:
It now increasingly resembles a formal position on an institution's balance sheet, rather than simply a highly volatile asset.BTC 最新 $64,921，24h +0.89%，从 8/3 的 $62,250 低点上来到现在 $64,600—$64,900 一带，站上了 6.4 万、试探 6.5 万 。我现货底仓不动，这个位置不加仓也不减仓，合约空仓——我的判断是中性偏谨慎。
为什么不敢追？这次反弹的驱动很清晰：ETF 两日净流入超 3.3 亿（8/4 +2.115 亿、8/5 +1.215 亿，IBIT 占 1.7 亿+）、美伊霍尔木兹通航谈判推进压住油价、通胀预期降温 。但内部抛压没消：Coldcard 钱包漏洞累计损失扩到 $130M / 7,700+ 地址，Strategy（原 MicroStrategy）7/27—8/2 卖了 1,638 BTC、均价 $63,957，远低于其 $75,419 的成本 。ETF 买、内部人卖，这是筹码交换不是单边吸筹。
技术面上，6.4 万今天必须日线收稳，上方压力 $65,250 / $67,100，破 6.35 万看 6.25 万 。本周真正的定价核心是周五 20:30 非农（预期 +8 万，失业率 4.3%）——数据 moderate，BTC 有路径冲 6.5 万+；数据强，6.2 万就是陷阱门 。
我反对"ETF 回流 + 突破 6.5 万 = 牛市第二脚踹开"的主流简化叙事。这是宏观事件（霍尔木兹 + 非农预热）驱动的技术性 relief rally，不是趋势反转 。真正的反转确认需要：①非农不能爆表 ②6.5 万日线收稳三天以上 ③Coldcard 事件平息、Strategy 停止减持。三个条件现在一个都没坐实。
我的实盘：现货 6.1 万成本底仓拿死，6.5 万上方不追，6.35 万日线破位减 1/3 防 6.25 万，6.25 万附近挂买单接回。
BTC 在 6.5 万门口，你们是追、是等周五非农、还是 6.35 万破位就跑？ $SNDK ：短线上仍处于日线级别的反抽过程中，昨天白天突破日线boll中轨1355（现在是1366），就转多，空被打死。日线boll中轨是7月中旬以来一直没有被突破，这次被突破，能量很强，验证了1000整数大关是市场的心理大关，短期内不会跌破，未来再下探也只会是虚破。周一埋伏的1036抄底没有接到，针插到1124迅速收了上去，甚为可惜。 所以短线上再要以逢低做多为主。同理，再只有跌破1360短线上转空，跌破1360后日线的金叉就分散走弱，最低再回踩1192（变量）。
今天白天只有1小时级别顶背离，所以刚才1478短空，回踩1446就走。
趋势反转点在1520，这里若突破，周线macd将出一个止跌信号，那么后续5日线级别的反抽就会生效，中线趋势最高就可能反弹700-850点（起涨点972）。突破1520，右侧这根阳线超过旁边这根阴线，就会把972踩成短期内的最低点，所以趋势反转（只是中线趋势，不代表闪迪整轮熊市全部结束）。第一次突破1500附近突破是虚破，1508是2375-972大波段的第一个斐波点（0.382），一般都有回撤。第二次再上来，再看突破。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
$BTC According to normal logic, with high interest rates, soaring US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, ETF capital outflows, and tight liquidity, these factors in past cycles would have likely caused BTC to crash even harder. But this time, it has never experienced a true panic sell-off.
I don't think this is necessarily the absolute bottom; it’s possible that the price could fall below $60,000 or even a bit further. However, I believe this is more like a mid-to-long-term bottom range rather than a specific bottom price.
The reason is simple: those who really want to sell have mostly sold, while long-term funds, ETFs, and institutional funds from listed companies are continuously absorbing chips. The market's cost center has clearly risen, and BTC's bottom is gradually moving up with institutional entry. Data shows that a single price point of $63,000 has accumulated 1.15 million BTC, which is extremely rare historically.
There’s no need to guess the lowest point; instead, gradually build positions within the bottom range; keep buying as it falls, increase positions during crashes, and extend the time horizon to three to five years. Catch the fish body between the head and tail; the real profit-makers are those who dare to buy bit by bit in the bottom area when others are panicking.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk's financial report beats expectations, so why did the stock price actually fall?
Last night, SanDisk $SNDK released a strong financial report. FY2026 Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, exceeding market expectations, with adjusted EPS at $39.25, significantly exceeding forecasts. At the same time, the company added $14 billion in repurchase authorizations, with AI storage demand remaining the core growth driver
But the market did not buy it, and the stock price fell after hours
Now, the market is no longer about whether the performance is good, but about whether it can continue to exceed expectations
The earnings report is strong, but expectations are higher
SanDisk is benefiting from the AI infrastructure dividend
The expansion of AI servers and data centers both requires massive amounts of high-speed storage, which is the core reason for SanDisk's explosive performance
But the problem is, the AI storage market has already surged significantly over the past year, and the market has priced in future growth in advance
So now, investors are not just focused on:
Is there any demand for AI?
Rather,
How much longer can AI demand last?
Can profit margins continue to improve?
I believe this decline is more like a valuation adjustment, not the end of AI logic
The entire AI industry is entering its second phase
Previously, the market was speculated on NVIDIA GPUs; now they are looking for truly profitable segments such as storage, power, data centers, and network equipment
SanDisk's financial report actually proves one thing:
Demand for AI infrastructure has yet to cool down
But in the future, the market will become increasingly discerning. Telling AI stories alone is no longer enough; real revenue and profits must be seen
What do you think comes next?
▶️ In the short term, SanDisk may continue to fluctuate, as its previous gains have already been substantial, and capital needs to absorb profits
▶️ In the medium to long term, if data center demand continues to grow and long-term orders keep increasing, SanDisk will remain a major beneficiary of AI storage
🪁 But the risks are also obvious
Once cloud providers begin to slow down AI capital spending, these highly valued supply chain companies will be the first to be affected
So this drop in SanDisk seems more like the market moving from speculating on expectations to a phase of watching for realization
The AI market isn't over yet, but the difficulty is increasing
Non-investment advice for DYOR #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
I believe the divergence between gold and Bitcoin this time precisely shows that in the face of real macro risks, the market still views Bitcoin as a "high-risk tech stock" rather than a "safe-haven asset."
On August 5, gold broke through $4,200 intraday, COMEX futures closed at $4,245.8, and silver also broke below $62.
The logic behind this is very strong: US July ADP employment only increased by 44,000, far below expectations.
As soon as the data came out, the US dollar and US Treasury yields immediately retreated, and funds instinctively flocked to gold, the traditional safe haven.
But what about Bitcoin? It's still hovering between $64,000 and $65,000, not following the price at all.
This is quite interesting: the long-standing narrative of "digital gold" has actually failed in this typical risk-averse rally.
My previous judgment was that as soon as the Fed cuts rates and liquidity floods, BTC will fly along with XAU.
But reality proved him wrong, because current capital is very smart and cautious.
When trading "recession expectations," their preferred choice is gold, which has the highest certainty, rather than the highly volatile BTC.
When I opened my position last month, I originally planned to allocate 10% of my BTC as a hedge, but after seeing the ADP data, I switched to a gold ETF instead.
The current market environment is: bad news is bad news, not good news.
Poor employment means the economy may suffer a hard landing. At this point, who dares to use highly volatile crypto assets as a safe haven?
So, don't be brainwashed by the slogan of "digital gold."
In the face of major macroeconomic turmoil, BTC remains a growth stock with high beta value, not a safe-haven asset.
Only when the economy achieves a soft landing and liquidity floods again can it take over from gold and continue its rally.昨天谷歌因为又一个AI大牛离开而大跌，说明大部分人都没看懂谷歌。
谷歌，微软，meta这几家的护城河不在大模型的能力，这几家根本不需要跟a和o两家一样去做出最顶级的模型，只要一个70分的模型就足够了。最重要的是便宜和快，并且和自家生态深度整合即可。现在meta的muse spark和xai的grok已经做了很好的榜样，谷歌做调整只需要几个月。2. Apple (AAPL): +0.52%, closed at $228.45. The Dow Jones Index hit new highs driving the market, with the dual engines of consumer electronics + AI ecosystem driving growth. Product iteration + service revenue growth, capital band for defense; short-term fluctuations follow the broader market, long-term AI + hardware integration space is visible.Strategy的永续优先股 STRC 近日突破 94 美元，较6月低点飙升约30%。这轮反弹背后，Strategy正在用一系列“市值管理”组合拳，向市场证明自己仍能掌控局面。 上涨驱动力： 公司近期出售比特币以支付股息，并已回购约1.06亿美元的STRC优先股，同时将美元储备大幅提升至40亿美元。值得注意的是，Strategy已连续第6周没有增持比特币——囤币策略让位于流动性管理，这是公司战略转向的明确信号。 “面值保卫战”的核心机制： STRC的本质是面值100美元、可变股息率的永续优先股。其核心风险在于：股价越低，股息率被迫上调越高——当前年化股息已达12%，意味着更沉重的付息压力。 Michael Saylor已明确表态：公司不会在STRC低于100美元时发行新股，并计划继续作为“规律且纪律性的买家”持续回购。当价格离100美元较远时增加买入力度，接近时则减少。目前公司仍手握约9.75亿美元的回购额度。 回购资金将不使用美元储备，而会根据市场情况通过MSTR股票及比特币出售等方式筹集。目标是推动STRC价格稳定在100美元附近。 几个值得关注的细节： 6周不买BTC：这意味着市The story of digital gold is being reexamined.
Recently, the market has seen an interesting divergence: the US July ADP employment data came in below expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields retreated, and safe-haven funds pushed gold back above $4,200. However, BTC did not repeat this upward trajectory and continued to fluctuate within a range.
Many people began to question: Has the logic of 'digital gold' failed?
My view is that BTC and gold have never been the same safe-haven asset.
Gold trading is about "uncertainty"; when war, inflation, or currency credit risks arise, funds often respond first to gold. It has a consensus spanning thousands of years and also has central bank reserve attributes.
BTC trades for "future expectations." It requires more ample liquidity, a stronger risk appetite, and the market's belief that capital will continue to flow in in the future.
Therefore, the fact that gold rises while BTC does not rise in the short term does not mean BTC has failed; rather, it shows that the market is distinguishing the logic between the two.
Right now, BTC seems to be waiting for a confirmation signal: whether the Fed will shift its policy, whether dollar liquidity will truly be released, and whether institutional funds will accelerate their inflow again.
If expectations for rate cuts heat up and dollar liquidity improves, I believe BTC may reclaim the "risk asset lead" position.
But if the market is only worried about a recession and funds prioritize safe-haven funds, then gold may continue to lead.
So I won't simply judge who is stronger now, but focus on one core variable:
Is the capital fleeing risk, or is it preparing to embrace risk again?
Gold prices rose, indicating market unease; BTC is trading sideways, indicating that funds have not fully invested their bets.
The truly anticipated market is not the simultaneous rise of gold and BTC, but the moment when the market shifts from defensive mode to offensive mode.
At that time, BTC may truly live up to the title of "digital gold."
$BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $AAOI Options patterns are currently typical earnings trading with two-way bets.
There is a large amount of short-term call speculation, call rollovers, upside demand, and extreme downside protection simultaneously.
The expected fluctuation of the earnings report is 14.66%. Based on 128.56, the implied range is approximately 109.90–147.22.
Holding AAOI today through earnings reports should be able to withstand at least a 15% overnight gap.
There is positive Delta demand on the options side, but spot prices have not been maintained, and the selling pressure on stocks itself outweighs the hedging buying from option flows.
In summary, options are hedging, going long on volatility without a clear direction.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk$SNDK's earnings report raises a bigger question for the market: Is the AI storage sector a short-term price increase cycle, or a long-term opportunity for industry upgrades?
According to the data, SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, indicating that the storage demand brought by AI is being realized. However, the after-hours stock price pullback also shows the market was not fully convinced by a solid earnings report, because investors are looking not at the past, but at the future.
I believe the greatest value of AI storage is not simply a price increase, but that the demand structure is changing.
The biggest pain point in the storage industry in the past was excessive cyclicality: after prices rose, companies expanded production, followed by oversupply and rapid profit declines. But the AI era is different. Models are getting larger, computing power is getting stronger, and the data throughput behind them is becoming more terrifying. The future competition will not be just about chip performance, but about who can provide faster, larger, and more efficient data storage capabilities.
So I focus more on three indicators: first, whether AI storage demand continues to grow; Second, whether new technologies like high-bandwidth flash memory can generate real commercial value; Third, can the company convert demand into long-term profitability?
Price increases can only bring short-term profits but cannot support long-term valuations. What truly determines the future of AI storage is whether enterprises can transform from cycle manufacturers into AI infrastructure providers.
AI storage may not be just a simple storage bull market, but a crucial link in the AI infrastructure revolution. In the short term, the market will revolve around price increases and performance fluctuations, but long-term opportunities ultimately belong to companies with technological barriers that can continuously improve profit margins.
SNDK 1-hour chart
Short-term support
1220-1230 is the first support. Currently, bulls and bears are vying for positions. If it holds, there's a chance to rebound at 1300.
1175-1180, Bollinger lower band support; watch after a break below 1220.
1120-1130 is strong support; a break below indicates a weakening trend.
Pressure level
1300-1330, short-term rebound resistance.
1400-1480, the front high trap zone.
Currently, profit-taking is being realized after the earnings report, with MACD death cross and short-term weakness, but the AI storage logic remains unbroken. The key is whether 1220 can hold; holding it signals a strong correction, while a loss could lead to further bottoming.#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold returns to $4200—why hasn't BTC followed the rise? My judgment: it's not that I won't follow, it's just that the time hasn't come.
Guys, gold broke through 4200 with a big bullish candlestick last night, and today it's around 4300—a strong momentum. In contrast, BTC is still hovering at 64,000, like a stablecoin.
Many people have begun to doubt that the narrative of "digital gold" has collapsed. My view is quite the opposite: gold leads the charge, while BTC holds back with its big move.
The logic is simple:
· This wave of gold rally is driven by geopolitical risk aversion and central bank gold purchases, with a conservative capital nature that has always been a staple for traditional capital.
· BTC is still following the US market, and before liquidity truly eases, big money won't dare to move recklessly.
But think carefully: central banks worldwide are rushing to "de-dollarize" gold. The stronger this consensus, the sooner BTC, as the pioneer of decentralization, will inevitably absorb this wave of overflowing liquidity. Once the macro trend shifts, BTC's resilience will definitely surpass gold's catch-up rally.
In terms of trading, at this level, don't chase gold highs, nor cut losses on BTC. Hold it with peace of mind, waiting for the wind to come. The main character of the second half will most likely be replaced. $XAU Although the chart is all green, don't rush to cheer—the core issue with this round of trading is that liquidity hasn't truly spread across the market. 👀
The biggest cognitive trap right now is calling for a "comprehensive breakout" just because a few bullish candlesticks appear. Prices are indeed rising, but funds are more selective than ever. Money is not distributed evenly, but is highly concentrated in a few varieties, and the vast majority of altcoins still lack genuine buying support. This is not a broad rally, but localized overheating.
Looking at the futures market: open interest (OI) has cooled significantly, but trading volume remains strong. In plain terms—traders no longer blindly chase gains, but are now starting to be selective. Market sentiment is shifting from FOMO-driven to rational-driven, which is a typical feature of a bottom-building and divergence phase. 📉
Currently, the main inflows of capital include: $JELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS. These are not random fluctuations, but the result of smart money voting with their feet.
Looking at the market coordinate system: $BTC remains a liquidity black hole, an absolute magnet for all capital in the market; $ETH is the main channel for institutional funds to enter the market; $SOL continues to lead the high-beta L1 sector. In terms of AI narrative, $DATA is the core of infrastructure, $WLD carries the imagination space for AI + identity verification, while $HYPE directly reflects the current market's risk appetite thermometer. Don't forget $DOGE and $ZEC, which are the most intuitive indicators of retail purchasing power. 🧭
The negative list is equally eye-catching: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA. These varieties are still in a state of unsubscribed losses.
Figuring out where the money didn't go is just as important as figuring out where it went. Not every rising candlestick is worth paying for. Patiently monitor the true direction of capital flows, wait for stronger confirmation signals, let the trend prove itself, and then it's not too late to act. 📌
The above is only a chart observation and does not constitute investment advice. #DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC我是刺哥，闪迪财报说得非常清楚。营收和EPS双超预期，新增140亿美元回购，但股价盘后暴跌。这是一次经典的高预期陷阱。
先看财报数字
营收89.7亿美元，超预期的84.8亿。EPS 39.25美元，超预期的34.96美元。数据中心收入同比增长近13倍，毛利率升至84.6%创历史新高。数字漂亮得无可挑剔。
为什么暴跌
压垮股价的是2027财年Q1指引。营收指引103亿至108亿美元，中值105.5亿，低于FactSet预期的108.2亿。毛利率指引83%至85%，显示毛利率可能在高位进入平台期。高盛此前已预警，过高的市场预期令闪迪股价难以从亮眼业绩中获益。西部数据盘后大跌超11%，SK海力士跌近10%，整个存储板块被拖下水。
对闪迪空单的评价
1337.26的空单逻辑完全正确。市场对闪迪财报的预期已经被充分消化，关键在于指引能否继续超越预期。指引低于预期的结果，直接触发了多杀多的踩踏。这一单的空头逻辑已经兑现。
接下来怎么看闪迪
短期来看，指引低于预期叠加存储板块情绪传导，空头趋势大概率延续。西部数据跌超11%、SK海力士跌近10%，板块联动效应明显。1250附近是短期支撑位，但更关键的是下方1080到1100区域。移动止损上移到1320，分批止盈设好。
刺哥说完了。你细品。$SNDK $BTC $ETH 目前山寨交易量占比已升至60%，而大饼币仅占22%，姨太占18%，
对比一下，5月份的大饼占尽40%的交易占比
所有主流交易所的大饼现货交易量已降至极低水平，与2023年熊市末期相当。
市场对大饼的兴趣持续低迷。 未来数周来价格几无波动，投资者会进入超级长的无聊期。
部分资金转向山寨币，山寨此前回调幅度远超比特币，投资者押注其反弹潜力。
资金都玩美股了，没人玩饼了。🤖8月5日消息，CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr.发布比特币8月展望报告，指出比特币8月初价格约64,040美元，较2025年10月周期高点下跌约50%。历史数据显示，8月是比特币最弱的月份之一——过去13年中9次收跌，中位数回报约-7.49%。目前比特币关键支撑位包括62,000-62,200美元、59,500-60,000美元和57,730美元；阻力位为64,000-64,700美元、66,500-67,000美元和71,000-74,000美元。宏观环境仍偏紧缩，10年期国债收益率约4.70%，美联储利率区间3.50%-3.75%。
对于8月走势，分析师给出三种情景判断：基准情景下，比特币有约55%的概率在58,000至67,000美元区间震荡，月底收于60,000至64,000美元；看跌情景下，有约30%的概率跌破57,730美元后可能触及52,750美元实现价格；看涨情景下，有约15%的概率突破67,000美元后有望测试71,000至74,000美元区域。SanDisk is currently in a standard downtrend, a typical weak rebound with repeated rebounds
Brothers, don't be fooled by the small intraday rally; the overall structure has now entered a downward channel.
Last night's earnings report had impressive data, with revenue and EPS both exceeding expectations and large-scale buybacks, but the market didn't buy into it. The core issue is that next quarter's earnings guidance is conservative, and funds are worried that the upward momentum in the storage sector will slow down, leading to the immediate realization of positive news.
A straightforward summary of key price points:
The first resistance above is 1380–1420, which is strong resistance for the recent rebound. If the rebound falls into this range, selling pressure will surge, making a one-time breakout difficult. Only by holding above 1450 with increased volume can the downward structure pause; otherwise, all rallies are merely repairs during the decline.
Short-term support below is 1300–1330, which is the first line of defense right now; Once a valid breakout is reached, downside space will open, with targets looking at the previous consolidation center of 1240–1280. Deeper support at 1100–1150 is an important mid-term support level.
Let's clarify the core logic of the market:
This previous surge had already fully priced in optimistic expectations for AI storage and NAND price hikes. Funds are trading not on actual earnings, but on whether future growth can be sustained.
With high valuations, the market's margin for error is extremely low. As long as the long-term guidance fails to meet the optimistic expectations, bulls will exit in bulk. Combined with weakening sector sentiment, SK Hynix and Micron are under joint pressure, further suppressing Sandisk's recovery efforts.
The trend pattern is very clear: a slight rebound to attract bulls, then new lows again, with three steps backward, making it difficult for the bulls to sustain the rally.
Two types of trends are to be seen in advance:
Weak main scenario: rebound under resistance below 1420, pulling back again, testing support at 1330, then continuing to decline after breaching.
A few reversal scenarios: Volume increases and the index holds above 1450, breaking the downtrend in the short term, but returning to strength will be extremely difficult.
Practical Approach:
In a downtrend, the biggest taboo is chasing long positions during weak rebounds.
At levels where resistance hits during a rally, bearish P&P ratios are more advantageous; If you want to buy the bottom, don't rush; wait for clear signs of stabilization from key support before reconsidering. #闪迪财报双超预期, add $14 billion in buyback authorization 闪迪（SanDisk，SNDK）深度分析：AI时代的“存储卖铲人”，还能继续狂奔吗？ （注：以下分析基于公开市场信息，不构成投资建议） $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 ⸻ 一、最新情况：业绩爆炸，但股价为何下跌？ 闪迪近期公布财报后出现了一个典型的“利好下跌”。 表面看： ✅ 营收大幅增长 ✅ AI数据中心需求强劲 ✅ 毛利率明显提升 ✅ 企业级SSD业务高速增长 但股价却出现回调。 原因很简单： 市场预期已经太高。 闪迪过去一年涨幅巨大，市场已经提前交易了AI存储超级周期，因此： 好消息必须“超过预期”，股价才会上涨。 目前财报虽然优秀，但未来指引没有明显超越华尔街最高预期，引发部分资金获利兑现。 ⸻ 二、闪迪真正的核心逻辑：AI需要的不只是GPU 很多投资者只关注： * 英伟达 GPU * 台积电芯片 * HBM高带宽内存 但忽略了一个关键问题： AI产生的数据，需要存储。 未来AI发展路线： 大模型训练 ↓ AI推理 ↓ AI Agent大量运行 ↓ 海量数据产生 ↓ 需要更大的存储空间 这就是闪迪的机会。 ⸻ 三、闪迪为什么受益AI？ 闪迪核心业务这份 2026 财年 Q2 财报对 Circle（CRCL）而言，标志着其完成了从“依赖降息周期的稳定币发行商”向**“全球合规数字金融与链上基础设施平台”**的根本性转变。 一、 商业模式重构：打破“利息依赖”，开启第二增长曲线 非利息收入强劲爆发：Circle 将全年“其他收入”指引大幅从 1.5–1.7 亿美元上调至 3.1–3.3 亿美元。在美联储降息大背景下，市场原本担忧其储备金利息收入（Reserve Income）受削弱，但 Arc 代币预售与支付网络收入证明其已具备强劲的“非利息造血能力”。 盈利扭亏为盈与效率提升：净利润由去年同期的亏损 4.82 亿美元扭转为盈利 4821 万美元，调整后每股收益（$0.18）超出华尔街预期，表明上市后的股权激励与研发投入成本已被有效消化。 二、 监管合规壁垒：锁定传统金融（TradFi）清算的独家地位 联邦级银行牌照破局：获得美国货币监理署（OCC）批准设立 Circle National Trust（国家信托银行牌照）及纽约州 NYDFS 批准。这使 Circle 成为极少数直接拥有联邦银行业资格的加密原生企业，大幅拉开与 #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
Circle's acquisition of a federal-level banking license is a crucial signal beyond the Q2 financial report. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Money approved Circle National Trust and also obtained approval from New York State's financial services department to establish the Circle New York Trust. This makes Circle one of the few stablecoin issuers with national trust bank qualifications, further strengthening its compliance framework. This will directly pave the way for institutions to implement USDC and the Arc ecosystem in the future.
Reviewing the full operating data for Q2 2026, Circle's total revenue and reserve income reached $701 million, a 7% year-on-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA reached $143 million, up 8% year-on-year, and after deducting channel revenue, the profit margin reached 41%. Net profit from continuing operations reached $48.21 million, marking a strong reversal from the large losses in the same period last year. Profitability has been substantially restored, largely due to the expansion of USDC circulation and increased non-interest income. The market can see that USDC's ending circulating supply was fixed at $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with on-chain trading volume reaching $14.8 trillion—a significant 151% year-on-year increase. The number of active wallets also rose by 24%, expanding to 7 million, and stablecoins' overall market share remained stable at 27%.
However, quarterly quarter-over-quarter data shows some temporary changes: USDC's quarter-end circulating supply fell 4.8% compared to the end of Q1, and on-chain trading volume fell from $21.5 trillion to $14.8 trillion, a 31% quarter-on-quarter decline. USDC's average circulating scale this quarter was $76.5 billion. After the financial report was released, the capital market responded directly: CRCL rose before the market opened driven by new narratives, but after the official open, its stock price fell by 10%. This divergence essentially reflects the market's tug-of-war between the pace of existing business growth and the potential for future new businesses. The pre-market rally anchored to a brand-new story brought by Arc, while the post-opening pullback reflected the market's pricing in USDC's short-term growth slowdown.
But we can't just focus on short-term fluctuations in stablecoin stock business; Circle has already completed rapid iterations across multiple business lines internally. Circle Payments Network's annualized transaction volume has reached $14.7 billion, a 76% increase from the previous quarter, with 175 financial institutions partnering with it. The Agent Stack product, launched in May, has surpassed 900 paid service items, with 99.3% of x402 proxy payments settled using USDC. This product matrix has already completed the commercial payment closed loop, and USDC's practical application scenarios are continuously expanding.
Another major variable comes from the Arc network. Arc has now completed the private mainnet phase, and the public mainnet is set to officially open on September 16. The founding validator lineup of this network is highly valuable, with BlackRock, DTCC, Standard Chartered Bank, Visa, Mastercard, and Galaxy all participating in node operations. BlackRock will deploy the BUIDL fund to the Arc network, and DTCC will carry out custody asset tokenization work on this chain. Arc's core value lies in integrating stablecoin settlements, tokenized assets, and institutional-level financial infrastructure, opening up a wealth of institutional use cases for USDC that were previously uncovered. This is also the key driver driving USDC's growth curve to reopen.
The report also highlights a set of upward guidance: Circle raised its full-year other revenue guidance to a range of $310 million to $330 million, nearly doubling its previous target of $150 million to $170 million, with the incremental revenue from Arc token presales. The RLDC profit margin guidance was also revised upward, updating to 41.7%-43.7%, down from the previous range of 38%-40%, with management's expectations for future earnings continuing to rise.
For CRCL to sustain its strength going forward, the core lies in delivering on three core indicators. The continued increase in USDC circulation volume, further expansion of payment and subscription business revenue, and continued improvement in overall profit margins. When these indicators rise simultaneously, it means there is a substantial improvement in the actual usage rate of Circle's stablecoin basic services, signaling a turning point in fundamentals.
The launch of the Arc network, combined with the full set of federal banking licenses, has given Circle not only a new source of income but also elevated USDC from an ordinary on-chain stablecoin to a core medium for tokenized settlement of traditional large institutional assets. Traditional financial giants like BlackRock and DTCC are deeply involved in network operations, indicating that traditional capital has accepted this on-chain financial system, allowing USDC to rely on Arc to handle a large volume of real-world asset circulation demands. As the institutional ecosystem gradually takes root, the demand base for USDC will be further amplified, and CRCL itself will simultaneously benefit from both business scale and profitability, giving the project ample upside potential and investment value.cxmt/usdt
长鑫科技中长期做空逻辑
长期做空长鑫科技的核心理由
1、存储芯片强周期宿命，当前处于景气高位
DRAM属于大宗商品，3‑4年一轮完整周期：涨价→扩产→供给过剩→价格暴跌、行业巨亏。
当下的高利润来自海外大厂控产叠加AI拉动的涨价红利，并非常态盈利能力。
三星、SK海力士、美光后续重启通用DRAM扩产，叠加长鑫自身持续扩产，2027‑2028年供给会明显释放。一旦供大于求，DRAM价格短期会大幅下行，公司利润会从几百亿级别快速收缩，甚至重回亏损区间。
历史存储下行周期，海外巨头利润回撤80%以上；长鑫工厂产线较新，折旧压力更大，下行阶段抗风险能力弱于海外三强。管理层IPO路演也提示：不要把当下高利润线性外推到未来。
2、估值包含周期溢价+国产替代情绪溢价
静态PE30倍看着不高，但这是周期顶峰盈利算出来的市盈率。一旦利润下滑，市盈率被动抬升，会迎来戴维斯双杀：业绩下滑+估值杀跌。
海外SK海力士、美光景气阶段PE仅12‑20倍；长鑫市值显著高于海外同行，里面包含大量A股国产替代情绪溢价，情绪退潮后估值存在回归压力。
3、技术代差，很难吃到AI存储最高利润池HBM
长鑫绝大多数营收利润来自普通DDR5、LPDDR通用内存；高毛利HBM（AI高带宽内存）尚在研发，没有大规模商业化出货。
AI存储最高溢价业务被SK海力士、美光占据，长鑫主要在竞争激烈的普通DRAM赛道内卷，产品结构短板，在周期下行阶段会被进一步放大。
4、重资产模式，持续巨额资本开支、高额折旧
晶圆厂属于持续烧钱赛道，产线迭代、扩产需要不停投入。长鑫产线较新，每年设备折旧金额巨大。如果后续芯片售价下跌、产能利用率下滑，折旧会直接侵蚀利润。景气期赚到的现金流，很大一部分要继续投入建厂迭代，很难全部转化为股东自由现金流。
5、解禁筹码供给压力（完整解禁时间线）
上市基准日：2026‑07‑27
1. 2027‑01‑27（上市满6个月）：网下配售70%限售部分解禁，约15亿股，第一波机构筹码释放。
2. 2027‑07‑27（上市满12个月）：社保、养老类战略配售股份解禁，约6.60亿股，长线机构可卖出。
3. 2028‑01‑27（上市满18个月）：险资、产业链战投、核心员工资管计划解禁，约4.65亿股，产业资本筹码释放。
4. 2028‑07‑27（上市满24个月）：保荐机构跟投股份解禁，约2.30亿股，券商跟投部分到期可减持。
5. 2029‑07‑27（上市满36个月，超级大解禁窗口）：合肥国资、大基金二期、早期原始股东、员工持股平台大批量老股解禁，是规模最大的筹码供给窗口。
补充特殊承诺：创始人朱一明个人持股自愿锁定10年；大股东解禁后，减持还要遵守科创板减持新规，解禁≠立刻全部抛售，但远期筹码供给大幅增加是客观事实。上市初期流通盘占比很小，股价容易被资金推高，后续分批解禁会逐步改变筹码供需格局。
6、下游需求存在不及预期风险
业绩高度绑定AI服务器、PC、手机存储采购。如果全球云厂商AI资本开支降温，消费电子需求疲软，DRAM需求直接走弱，业绩承压。
总原则：绝不一次性满仓做空，采用分批建仓，只做景气泡沫阶段，不盲目左侧抄底做空。
1、建仓区间
- 第一批次试空：股价反弹站稳54‑58元区间，板块情绪亢奋、题材持续发酵，开启小仓位试空；
- 第二批次加仓空：股价冲击62‑66元，市场集体唱多存储周期永续，估值泡沫进一步放大，增加空头仓位；
3、止损设置（做空最重要环节）
统一硬性止损：70元。股价有效突破70元，说明本轮国产替代+AI景气情绪远强于周期逻辑，空头逻辑失效，必须全部平仓离场，不扛浮亏。
4、止盈目标分两档
- 第一止盈：38‑41元，周期情绪降温、估值溢价回落，可平掉60%空头头寸，兑现大部分利润；
- 第二止盈：30‑33元，对应周期景气见顶、利润开始向下修正，了结剩余仓位。
5、持仓时间框架
这是中期周期博弈，不是隔夜短线，预期持仓周期6个月；
总结：做空的核心逻辑，本质押注存储周期见顶回落，景气期高利润不可持续，估值的情绪溢价回归。但周期拐点时间很难精准预判，做空属于高风险操作。美股科技股回调与利率压制共振，$NVDA 凭SpaceX基建采购逆势拉升，反映资金正加速从高估值资产向具备极强确定性的AI硬件集中。
从盘面事实来看，纳指下跌0.83%而英伟达拉升3.43%冲上219.22美元，总市值站上5.3万亿美元。与半导体板块整体承压、超威半导体单日跌超7%形成对比，资金正在泛科技领域内部进行激烈的结构性重构。
驱动力的首要因素是SpaceX明确未来AI基建采购锁定英伟达处理器，强化了硬件端的确定性。次要因素是美股科技与加密资产股票的资金溢出，Coinbase董事减持35068股套现约506万美元，微策公司过去12个月下跌74%并出售3588枚比特币付息，显示资金正离场高波动避险资产，向确定性更强的硬件龙头聚拢。
上行剧本的触发条件是英伟达收盘有效站稳219.22美元上方，且半导体做空工具资金流入放缓。需要观察的变量是谷歌等弱势科技巨头回调时资金向英伟达流动的持续性。若算力采购需求强劲，溢价空间将持续打开。该剧本失效的信号是突破后成交量萎缩或科技板块抛压扩大至整体龙头。
下行剧本的触发条件是高估值修正压力向龙头扩散，导致英伟达跌破近期突破节点。需要观察的变量是市场对宏观利率走势的重新定价，以及三倍做空纳指等对冲工具的资金流入速度。若无风险利率上行压制美股估值，强基本面也将承受估值修正。该剧本失效的信号是英伟达延续放量上涨并带动半导体板块企稳。
当三倍做空半导体单日上涨2.86%反映出空头力量聚积，或者加密资产相关标的抛压传导至整体风险偏好下降时，仅靠单一订单利好维持溢价的条件将出现松动。
未来24小时至7天重点观察英伟达在219.22美元位置的换手质量，以及超威半导体等同板块标的是否止跌。同时需监测三倍做空纳指等杠杆对冲工具的日内资金流向，以此评估美股与相关风险资产对利率压制的消化程度。
#谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地Low prices do not equal bargains. In the cryptocurrency market, what truly determines valuation is the supply and demand structure and release rhythm, not the fluctuating numbers on the candlestick chart. 👀
To truly see a project's true nature, we must look beyond surface hype and directly examine its tokenomics core:
🔹 The current ratio of circulating supply to total supply
🔹 Fully diluting the gap between the valuation FDV and the current market cap
🔹 Future unlock plans: release timing, quantity, and tempo
🔹 Who is the group receiving the unlocked tokens, and who are more likely to hold or sell?
Many projects appear technologically advanced, with active communities and thriving ecosystems, but if a large number of new tokens continue to flood the market, prices will be continuously suppressed by selling pressure. High FDV but very small circulating back, combined with frequent unlocks, essentially dilute the interests of early investors. 📉
The unlocking dynamics of the following projects are worth keeping an eye on:
$ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
Currently, the most prominent sectors in the market include:
🌐 DeFi and RWA (Real-World Assets):
$ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL
🤖 AI and DePIN:
$TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
🐸 Meme Coins:
$PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT
Before opening a position, ask yourself four questions:
✅ What proportion of the total supply has been circulated?
✅Is FDV reasonable relative to current market value, or is it clearly overdrawing expectations?
✅ When will the next round of mass unlock arrive?
✅ Are the teams, institutions, or early investors who receive tokens motivated to continue building or to cash out and exit?
Sound tokenomics have never been a guarantee of high returns, but poor supply management can slowly erode prices through continuous dilution. Spend more time studying supply and demand mechanisms and strictly managing risks to make more rational decisions.
This is not financial advice; please do your own research before entering.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Crypto #Tokenomics #DYORTaiwan plans to implement a crypto Travel Rule starting in October, $BTC $ETH short-term negative outlook.
In the future, when transferring more than NT$30,000 on local compliant Taiwanese platforms, the platform will need to collect and transmit more complete user identity information.
This definitely puts pressure on market sentiment.
Higher transfer thresholds, reduced privacy, and some funds may flow less locally.
But this kind of regulation is not a sudden crackdown on transactions; it is more like further integrating crypto assets into the financial anti-money laundering system.
In the short term, this will suppress some trading activity; In the long run, compliance will become increasingly apparent.
The direction of the Asian market is now very clear:
Crypto is not unregulated, but increasingly governed according to traditional financial rules.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $SOL Yesterday's original judgment was: during the price rebound, there will be insufficient active spot buying and almost no movement, so new demand has not yet been confirmed. As of 13:00 today, the evidence has become complicated and can only be recorded as "still verified."
About 20 hours after the post, SOL fell from 74.07 to 73.86, still below Binance's daily closing 20-day average; however, the spot active buy/sell ratio rose from 0.90 to 1.05, USD-M holdings increased by about 3.21%, and the funding rate turned negative. Buying and positions have indeed returned, but prices have not taken over, and new positions may include shorts.
No trading plan was provided earlier, so there are no account gains or losses to record. For about 4 hours left, just look at the daily close: if the price recovers above the 20-day average and you actively buy to maintain your advantage without holding positions, the original judgment will be invalid; If prices remain weak and negative rates persist, demand confirmation is still not complete.
#SOL #交易复盘The market is betting with real money on whether the U.S. and Iran can reach an agreement, but I only look at one indicator: whether the tankers will truly return to normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Declarations can change sentiment, but actual navigation can change supply.
If the agreement is implemented, oil prices, inflation, and Treasury yields may all fall simultaneously, creating tailwinds for tech stocks and BTC; If negotiations break down, recent gains in risk assets may also be quickly reversed.
Do you think this is the real turning point, or is it another case of "selling up first, then collapsing"?Oh my god! SanDisk's financial report is absolutely explosive—Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, net profit was 6.9 billion, turning losses into profits, and EPS of $39.25 exceeded expectations! Annual revenue was 20.25 billion, with data center revenue of 2.98 billion in a single quarter, soaring 1298% year-on-year—truly astonishing!
But! After hours, it even dropped as much as 8%, and the market is turning its mood faster than flipping a book! Why? The Q1 guidance median was 10.55 billion, just a bit below expectations. Gross margin didn't rise again, and the consumer business dropped 32% quarter-on-quarter—it's like scoring 99 but being asked why you didn't score 100. Isn't that unfair?
But don't panic! They signed 8 long-term contract lock-in orders, stamped supply for the next year and the year after, approved 14 billion yuan in buybacks, just released 332-layer QLC new technology, and the fundamentals are solid! Morgan Stanley said the storage shortage will last at least two years.
I did the math: there's a 55% chance it's just lingering around here, so the market needs to catch its breath; There is a 35% chance of a 10-15% pullback, since AI expectations are too hyped; There is only a 10% chance of an immediate rebound; we have to wait for the next shot of adrenaline.
In short, the long-term is great, but short-term is ...... Let's see how the main players react!
⚠️ This is pure personal nonsense. Investing carries risks. If you lose money, don't come to me! $SNDK $BTC $ETH 快报快报！SNDK (闪迪)自 2025 年从西部数据（WDC）独立拆分并重新上市以来，已成为 AI 存储赛道的绝对核心。8月5日盘后发布的2026财年第四季度财报不仅是业绩的博弈，更是多空逻辑的彻底摊牌。
以下是针对“大额资金站队”与“散户 vs 巨鲸不同剧本”的深度分析：
1. 财报核心数据与资金“重新站队”
虽然SNDK财报显示EPS（每股收益）录得$34.52（显著高于预期的$33.38），且营收同比大幅增长，但股价走势却出现了极度背离：
*机构获利了结：高盛主经纪商数据显示，对冲基金已连续4周净卖出半导体硬件，SNDK成为高位套现的首选。
*估值分歧：尽管股价已从$2,354的高点回调约40%，但部分巨鲸（如Whale Rock）认为其NAND业务在 AI 数据中心市场的渗透率仍有空间；而空头巨鲸则盯上了$850的深度价外看跌期权进行防御性对冲。
2. 散户与巨鲸交易的“不同剧本”
*巨鲸剧本：从“溢价增长”转向“周期防守”
*核心逻辑：巨鲸正在交易“AI 资本支出放缓”和“中国存储产能冲击”。随着长鑫存储（CXMT）和长江存储（YMTC）在2026年释放大量产能，机构担心SNDK的纯 NAND 模式缺乏像 SK 海力士那样的 HBM 高溢价护城河。
*调仓动作：大额资金正在撤出“拥挤的 AI 交易”，转向$1,370附近的期权博弈，通过抛售覆盖式看涨期权（Covered Call）锁定利润。
*散户剧本：从“信仰持仓”转向“心理恐慌”
*核心逻辑：散户在 Stocktwits 等社交平台的信心依然处于“极度看好”到“崩溃边缘”的震荡区间。
*交易行为：大多数散户在期待$1,400的技术性反弹以解套，但一旦跌破$1,000的心理关口，极易引发大规模的止损踩踏（Positioning Flush）。
3. 接下来该怎么走？（策略建议）
目前SNDK进入了典型的“业绩后定位重塑期”，建议关注以下关键节点：
*支撑位与阻力位：
*第一支撑位：$1,000（强心理关口及主要机构成本区）。
*核心阻力位：$1,370 - $1,420（当前周期的期权最大持仓区间）。
*关键变量：需警惕美联储主席Warsh在8月政策会议上的鹰派言论，以及NAND现货价格是否因产能过剩而出现结构性松动。
*操作建议：
*长线持有者：在$1,000附近观察是否有巨鲸“二次入场”的异动扫货信号。
*短线交易者：避免在$1,200附近的中轴位置肉搏。若跌破$1,190且伴随放量，暗示巨鲸剧本已由“获利了结”转向“趋势做空”，下一目标位直接看向$943。
结论：SNDK财报后的抛售并非基本面恶化，而是大额资金在 AI 存储“超级周期”见顶预期下的集体性撤退。接下来的 1-2 周是观察散户割肉盘与机构重新建仓区间的关键博弈窗口。$BTC $ETH $SNDK 杠杆美股全跪，macro risk-off已拉响警报
JPMorgan警告高杠杆：有人要 disrupt 市场💀
S&P暴力拉升像顶部信号，图表分析师直接慌了
Dow期货新高，但AI reshuffle+芯片政策争议不断
代币化美股结果0涨5跌，平均-4.36% 总成交5100万刀
XSOXL和XSNDK同跌，3x多空直接打架现场🔴
XSPY微跌0.08% XSKHY跌3.05%，资金没切创新，全在跑路
XSPCX -7% 我空单浮盈0.43% TP101.78 SL114.07 等反弹继续空
GRVT +16.48% 我刚开多，顺着动能，上一单SL已-5.34%血泪教训
BTC +0.58% 但成交量腰斩-51% 资金费率0.005% 完全跟屁虫
fear 27 + macro抛售信号，crypto在宏大叙事里还是接盘侠
等Warren继续掐AI芯片 or Lummis CLARITY法案落地？美国参议院8月休会前，CLARITY法案的立法窗口正在快速关闭。 加密记者Eleanor Terrett披露，参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩今日对其他法案正式提出启动辩论动议，CLARITY法案未在列。启动辩论动议是参议院推进立法进程的关键程序性步骤，约翰·图恩选择优先推动其他法案，显示CLARITY法案核心分歧仍未弥合。 当前两党僵持的焦点在于伦理条款的执行权归属——禁止联邦官员发行数字资产的条款，应由司法部还是州检察长担任首席执法机构？马里兰州参议员Alsobrooks已明确表态，若执法权仅限司法部而非保留给各州，她将不会支持该法案。 另一条战线同样胶着：民主党内部对法案的抵制在很大程度上与特朗普家族披露的逾10亿美元加密资产相关投资存在关联，多名民主党参议员将道德条款视为对总统潜在利益冲突的制衡手段。这使得法案的立法进程，一定程度上已与反对特朗普的政治目标捆绑在一起，而非单纯的行业监管技术性辩论。 在Predict.fun上，CLARITY法案2026年签署成法律的概率已跌至16%，较此前大幅下滑。随着参议院进入8月休会期，法案的实质性推进很可能要等到2027年——而2027年本身又🔥 The Meme Coin Maker Game—DOGE's Chip Distribution and Market Makers' Intentions
🐳 The whale's "retreat"
In the past week, whales have sold off over 1 billion $DOGE. What does this magnitude mean?
DOGE has a circulating supply of about 145 billion coins. 1 billion DOGE accounts for about 0.7% of the circulating supply—which may not seem large, but for a coin with a daily spot trading volume of only $34.25 million, the sell-off of 1 billion DOGE is a huge supply pressure.
There are several possible interpretations of the whale's decision to sell at this level:
1. Stop-loss exit: DOGE fell from a high of 0.48 to 0.0695, a drop of 85%, suggesting whales may be unable to hold on
2. Tactical Reduction: To buy back at a lower level
3. Sector rotation: Withdrawing from meme coins and shifting to safer assets like BTC/ETH
Regardless of the interpretation, whale sell-offs are significant short-term negative factors.
📊 The "Decentralization" of Chips
Corresponding to whale sell-offs, $DOGE's holdings are increasing—active addresses grew 16% in a week. This means the chips are dispersing from whales to retail investors.
In the crypto world, chip diversification is usually a bear market characteristic (big players selling to retail investors), while chip concentration is a bull market feature (retail investors selling to big players). DOGE is currently in a fragmented phase of tokenization, indicating that the market has not yet bottomed out.
📈 Smart Money's "Reverse Betting"
Despite whales selling, top traders are heavily going long. These two behaviors may seem contradictory, but in reality, they may be "two sides of the same coin":
· Whales are selling off in the spot market→ suppressing prices
· Top traders go long in the derivatives market → bet on a rebound
This combination may mean that whales are suppressing prices through spot selling while establishing long positions in the derivatives market—a classic "sell first, then pull" approach. If this interpretation holds, then DOGE's bottom may be within reach.
🎭 The unique pattern of meme coins
$DOGE As the largest meme coin, it has its own unique market rules:
First, the emotion-driven nature of meme coins. DOGE's price does not depend on fundamentals (DOGE has almost no fundamentals), but rather on market sentiment and narrative. Once KOLs like Elon Musk speak out, or if the meme coin sector as a whole recovers, DOGE could surge in a very short time.
Second, the leading effect. Once leading meme coins like DOGE and SHIB strengthen, they often drive trading heat, capital flows, and market sentiment across the entire meme coin sector to heat up simultaneously.
Third, a rebound after extreme overselling. DOGE's RSI has hit a historic low, dropping from 0.48 to 0.0695, a drop of 85%. Historically, this level of overselling often signals a strong rebound.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion in repurchase authorization #ADP就业降温 intensified Fed policy #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资, valuations exceeding $20 billion 日元套利交易正在衰退。
在2025年4月之前，美元/日元货币对与美国和日本国债之间的10年期利率差异呈现出密切的相关性。
这主要是由于投资者借入日元，以通过套利交易投资于收益更高的美元资产。
然而，在“解放日”之后，这种关系发生了变化，贸易战的不确定性引发了市场波动的激增，迫使投资者平仓部分套利交易头寸。
与此同时，10年期美国国债收益率目前交易在日本10年期政府债券收益率之上约2.0个百分点，自2025年4月以来下降了1.0个百分点，接近自2021年以来的最低差距。
尽管收益差距缩小，美元/日元仍然持续上涨，因为美元对日元走强，脱离了历史上驱动该货币对的利率差异。
换句话说，套利交易的影响力正在减弱，日元不再主要受到利率差异的驱动，因为投资者越来越多地考虑到日本沉重的债务负担和上升的债务服务成本。
日本日益上升的债务成本正变得无法忽视。长鑫科技今日"逆板块跳水"：3.5万亿存储王者的第一次回撤，藏着第二轮主升的买点？
8月6日这天，整个半导体板块红得发紫——存储股科翔股份20CM涨停，汇成股份、有研硅涨超10%，长电科技冲板回落涨超7%，科创芯片ETF昂头向上。
但全场最刺眼的，是那个A股市值一度登顶3.6万亿的"存储之王"长鑫科技（688825）。
它没跟涨，反而低开跳水：开盘52.96元，最低砸到51.13元，盘中最大跌幅近6%，尾盘收在52.08元，单日跌4.09%，成交额207.7亿，换手8.85%。
板块在狂欢，龙头在挨打。
这画面，像不像你昨天写的黄金——突破大阳之后的第一次回撤洗盘？
一、今天这根阴线，不是反转，是"首日暴涨471%之后的获利吐痰"
把时间拨回7月27日：发行价8.66元，收盘49.01元，单日+466%，市值冲到3.3万亿，一小时成交破万亿，科创板开板以来最大IPO。
十天涨了5倍，浮盈盘堆积如山。今天低开下杀，本质是短线FOMO资金兑现+隔夜闪迪指引不及预期带崩海外存储情绪+SK海力士盘中跌7%的情绪传染，三层抛压叠在一天释放。
但你看细节：
51.13元之后资金立刻接回，分时回勾均价线52元附近；
半导体板块全天涨2.3%、存储板块涨近3%，板块没死，是个股洗盘；
8.85%换手在3.5万亿体量个股身上，属于"放量不破位"，不是溃逃。
翻译成你复盘黄金的那套语言：
3960止跌=长鑫发行价8.66的锚；4200突破=首日466%大阳；4300冲高回落=今日52.96开、51.13探底；接下来的回撤不破51–50区，就是二轮多头的加仓区。
二、为什么敢说"第二轮上涨"还在后面？底层逻辑没动
今天跌，跌的是情绪和获利盘；没跌的，是长鑫的硬底盘。
1. DRAM超级周期没结束
三星/SK海力士/美光把产能往HBM4和LPDDR5X倾斜，通用DRAM供给持续收紧。26Q2常规DRAM涨幅93%–98%，Q3E仍58%–63%，涨价斜率放缓但绝对价格在高处。 华为余承东、苹果库克、小米雷军三方亲口确认"内存还要涨"，长鑫拒苹果压价、报价不低于三星海力士——这是卖方市场里站着赚钱的姿态。
2. 业绩从"亏十年"跳到"单季赚248亿"
26Q1营收508亿（同比+719%），归母248亿；26H1预告归母500–570亿（同比+2244%~2544%）。
动态PE按半年化利润算是个位数，静态PE 123倍是因为拿去年亏损年做分母——市场买的是周期峰值+国产替代双击，不是静态盈利。
3. 产能与产品卡位同步推进
上市4天后长鑫存储注册资本238.9亿→313.9亿（+75亿）；北京二厂推进；LPDDR6量产验证尾声；字节5年70亿美金大单在手。
钱、产能、订单、下一代产品，四条线全在向前，不是PPT故事。
4. 资本符号意义=黄金里的"央行购金"
7月27日那天，长鑫用一天时间把"中国DRAM全球第四（份额8%）"焊进A股定价体系，暂超英特尔市值，成为首个市值反超海外对手的中国科技股。
这种级别的标的，首次大回撤从来不是终点，是指数调仓资金、ETF被动资金、公募调仓资金的等距买点——3个月后纳入科创50/沪深300候选，又是新一轮被动流入。 Today, global stock markets retreated from record highs, with chip stocks becoming the hardest hit area. Flash memory giant $SNDK plunged 15.1% in a single day, with trading volume soaring to 3.12 billion, $SKHYNIX down over 10%, and $MU down 3%. Panic spreads, but has the opportunity already flashed? Outline - 🔍 Why Did Chip Stocks Suddenly Crash? - 📈 $SNDK What is its origin? - ⚔️ Fierce bullish and bearish battles: Fundamentals vs. sentiment - 🪓 Risks and opportunities: Should we take the flying knife now? Today's snapshot: $SNDK -15.1%, turnover 3.12 billion $SKHYNIX -10.3%, $MU -3.0% $QQQ -0.90%, $SPY -0.20% $BTC 64,648, +0.82% $ETH 1,906, +2.14% $GLD +4.14%, $DXY +0.04% VIX 15.8, -4.18% I. Why did chip stocks suddenly crash? 🔍 Today's sell-off in chip stocks is not an isolated event. $SKHYNIX plunged 10.3%, becoming another major drag, possibly directly related to the appreciation of the Korean won—the won rose to a nearly 10-month high in the morning as exporters sold large amounts of dollars. For Korean chip giants like $SKHYNIX, the strong Korean won directly erodes overseas revenue, triggering capital flight. Meanwhile, on the macro side, gold surged 4.14%, while the VIX did not decline📈 衍生品狂热 vs 现货冰点——DOGE 的极端背离
🔥 衍生品市场的“疯狂”
$DOGE 的衍生品数据可以用“疯狂”来形容：
· 顶级交易者：77.9% 做多，多空比 3.52:1
· 散户：73.8% 做多
· 主动买入卖出比：1.57:1，买方压倒性优势
· 未平仓合约：24 小时增长 8.55%
这些数据表明，衍生品市场正在押注 DOGE 的大幅反弹。聪明资金（顶级交易者）和散户罕见地达成了共识——都认为 DOGE 即将上涨。
🧊 现货市场的“冰点”
与衍生品市场的狂热形成鲜明对比的是现货市场的冰冷：
· okx现货日成交量仅 3,425 万美元
· 巨鲸在过去一周抛售超 10 亿枚 DOGE
· 价格在 0.0695 附近徘徊，缺乏上行动力
这种“衍生品热、现货冷”的格局，在历史上往往预示着剧烈的方向性波动。因为衍生品市场的杠杆仓位最终需要在现货市场平仓——要么现货成交量大幅飙升并验证衍生品市场的看法，要么这些杠杆多单被清理，导致价格快速下探。
💣 两种可能的结局
结局一：现货跟进，暴力拉升
如果现货成交量突然放大，买方开始积极承接，$DOGE 可能从 0.0695 迅速反弹至 0.073-0.075。这将验证衍生品市场的判断，形成“衍生品做多→现货上涨→衍生品进一步做多”的正反馈循环。
结局二：杠杆清洗，暴力下跌
如果现货市场继续疲弱，缺乏足够的买盘承接，那么衍生品市场堆积的杠杆多单将成为“燃料”——价格下跌→触发多单清算→进一步下跌→更多清算。目标位可能是 0.065。
📊 唯一的安全垫：中性资金费率
当前 $DOGE 的资金费率维持在接近中性的 0.0019%。这意味着持有多头头寸并未产生溢价，市场尚未进入狂热阶段。
从历史数据来看，中性资金费率与聪明资金重仓多头的组合，通常是一个建设性的信号——虽然存在清算风险，但并不必然发生。换句话说：做多的成本很低，但潜在的回报很高。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #加密市场回升 On August 6, influenced by the US-Iran ceasefire and expectations for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices fell sharply, easing concerns about inflation and significantly improving risk appetite. The crypto market (BTC, ETH, etc.) saw a broad rally. However, the essence of this rebound is a technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing, not a reboot of a bull market—the market still faces the dual test of macro suppression and internal differentiation in the later stages.
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1. The driving force behind the rebound and structural shortcomings
1. Driving factors
· The cooling of geopolitical conflicts (falling oil prices) has directly eased inflation anxiety, lowering market expectations for further Fed rate hikes, and driving a valuation recovery in risk assets;
· On-chain data shows that some large holders (whale sharks) continued to accumulate shares at low levels, and combined with a temporary easing of short-term selling pressure, this provided the market with bottoming support.
2. Limitations of the rebound
· Insufficient follow-up by incremental funds: Bitcoin ETF inflows have clearly slowed, while some institutions have actually seen net outflows;
· Spot trading volume remains sluggish, with the rebound mainly driven by supply contraction + sentiment recovery rather than large-scale expansion on the demand side;
· Macroeconomic pressure has yet to be lifted: The Fed's policy path remains unclear, and the deleveraging process of tech stocks continues.
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2. Subsequent trend deduction
Short-term (mainly volatile)
The market will remain highly volatile, with the direction heavily dependent on two factors: the direction of the US-Iran negotiations and Friday's nonfarm payroll data.
· If geopolitical easing continues, BTC is expected to consolidate and fluctuate around the $66,000–$66,500 resistance zone;
· If negotiations change or macro data turns hawkish, it could push back to $61,900 or even $60,000.
Mid-term (Bottoming and Differentiation)
The market is most likely at a turning point in the "bottoming phase." A real trend reversal requires waiting for substantial improvements in macro liquidity (such as the Federal Reserve's clear dovish stance) or for institutional funds to flow back sharply. In this process, asset differentiation will intensify: BTC, as "digital gold," is relatively resilient to declines, while high-beta, high-valuation altcoins are more affected by macro sentiment, with significantly amplified volatility.
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3. Reference for trading strategies
1. Strictly control positions, prioritize defense
Currently, we are in a period of high volatility driven by news, and chasing gains and selling on dips is a major taboo. It is essential to strictly set stop-losses to guard against sudden drawdowns caused by repeated geopolitical fluctuations.
2. Key Position Game Strategy
· Short-term traders: You can try a light long position near key support levels (BTC 61,900 / ETH 1,820), and pay attention to taking profits or trying short positions near resistance levels (BTC 66,500 / ETH 1,920);
· Medium-term investors: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for clearer trend signals—such as a volume breakout above the resistance zone or a second bottoming out, before positioning on the right.
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#加密市场回升 #BTC #ETH #宏观分析
📌 Intensive Extraction (Dehydrated Version)
Dimension Core Content
Market nature: Technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing, not a bull market restart
Drivers: Oil prices fall→ inflation concerns ease→ risk appetite rebounds; Whale sharks accumulating shares + short-term selling pressure weakens
Rebound Shortcomings: ETF inflows have slowed, trading volume has shrunk, and macroeconomic pressure has not been lifted
Short-term judgment: high volatility and volatility, key variables: US-Iran negotiations + nonfarm payroll data
BTC key levels: resistance at 66,000–66,500; support at 61,900/60,000
ETH key levels: resistance at 1,920; support at 1,820
Mid-term assessment: Still in a 'bottoming phase'; a trend reversal requires macro liquidity improvement or institutional capital inflows
Trading advice: Short-term light positions are trading within a range; medium-term observation is waiting for a breakout on high volume or a second bottoming out如果你和我一样，已经听够了关于《CLARITY法案》的各类讨论。平心而论，美国国会应当通过这项法案，如果能够落地，加密行业将会从中受益。 现状：“大家都觉得，这法案拖来拖去，市场都麻了，真通过了再说吧。” 《CLARITY法案》并非尽善尽美，但仍是一部质量尚可的法案。它能够提振美国经济、保护投资者、完善伦理保护机制，助力美国在链上金融时代取得竞争优势。 不过这部具有里程碑意义的加密立法自2025年5月起就在国会走审议流程。它的渊源可以追溯到更早的FIT21法案，该法案早在2024年5月就在美国众议院获得通过，距今已经过去了804天。 过去几个月，包括我在内的很多人都将本周视作《CLARITY法案》的成败关键节点。原因在于，美国参议院将于8月7日本周五开启八月休会，直至9月14日才复会。根据参议院议事规则，如果要争取在休会前进行投票，参议员最晚需要在8月5日本周三提交终止辩论申请。 主流观点认为，如果国会无法在八月休会前对该法案投票，法案大概率就此夭折，议员们很快会将重心转向11月大选。Polymarket预测，该法案2026年获得通过的概率仅为27%，而今年2月这一概率还高达82%。 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Arc是什么？Circle为什么要押注，它是否能起飞？
Arc是Circle专为金融机构打造的会员制区块链网络，核心服务于支付结算和资产代币化。它不是公链，而是由贝莱德、Visa、万事达、DTCC等11家金融巨头作为验证节点共同维护的“机构级高速路”，所有交易以USDC计价，本质是为USDC创造更广阔的金融基础设施场景。
这一波押注能否起飞？
短期（1年内）：Arc主网定于9月16日上线，但DTCC（美国证券清算核心）的代币化计划要2027年才落地，实际业务贡献至少需要1-2年，Circle财报显示USDC季末流通量环比下降4.8%，当前增长动能偏弱，Arc更多停留在预期层面，难以立即拉动业绩。
长期（3-5年）：一旦Arc成功连通传统证券结算，USDC将从“加密工具”升级为“金融基建”，需求空间被彻底打开，Circle给出的USDC年复合增长目标为40%，但实现前提是机构大规模采用。
一句话结论：Arc的战略价值巨大，但短期“起飞”概率低，长期值得关注。当前更适合当作长线逻辑，短线交易需耐心等待实际落地信号。📌昨天早上直播间布局$SNDK 1455空
目前暴跌的原因我拆开分享：
1337.26的空单，现在1255附近，浮盈超过80个点。这单的逻辑已经被市场验证了。
先看闪迪为什么从1400以上跌到1255附近
8月5日闪迪发布2026财年Q4财报，营收89.7亿美元，同比增长372%，远超预期的83.9亿美元；EPS 39.25美元，同样大超预期。数据中心业务收入同比增长近13倍，毛利率升至84.6%创历史新高。董事会还批准了140亿美元股票回购计划。
但市场不买账。常规交易时段已跌5.4%，盘后一度再跌近8%至1248美元。
压垮股价的是2027财年Q1指引。闪迪预计营收103亿至108亿美元，中值105.5亿，低于FactSet预期的108.2亿。毛利率指引83%至85%，显示毛利率可能在高位进入平台期。高盛此前已预警，过高的市场预期令闪迪股价难以从亮眼业绩中获益。“亮丽的过去”不足以抵消“不够惊艳的未来”。西部数据盘后大跌超11%，SK海力士跌近10%，整个存储板块被拖下水。
1337.26空单怎么拿
财报已经落地，指引低于预期的利空还在发酵，空头趋势确认。但短期跌幅已经不小，需要有序管理。
移动止损。止损从开仓位上方下移到1320。当前价格1255，1320意味着即便反弹你也仍有利润。如果价格继续下行到1200附近，止损进一步下移到1280。
分批止盈。第一目标1200到1220，平掉30%仓位。第二目标1150到1160，再平30%。第三目标1080到1100，剩余40%全部平掉。如果价格跌到1200附近出现放量加速，不要急着全平，让剩余仓位继续跑。
加仓条件。如果价格反弹到1280到1300区间且缩量滞涨，加仓空单，整体止损放在1320。如果直接放量跌破1200，追加空单，止损上移到1230，目标看1150。
离场条件。价格放量突破1320并站稳，说明财报利空被消化，空单全部离场。价格到1080到1100目标位，全部平仓，不贪最后一段。
这单从1337空下来，方向没问题。财报指引低于预期是核心驱动，存储板块情绪还在传导。移动止损锁利润，分批止盈拿波段，加仓等反弹确认。别让浮盈变浮亏，也别在恐慌中过早下车。
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH Iran just made bold threats to Gulf countries, causing oil prices to jump BTC to $64,896.53
Iran warns Gulf countries: If you dare to help the U.S. take action, you'll be attacked. Risk aversion surges, and risk assets are under full pressure.
Folks, the Middle East's powder keg is smoking again. Iran directly threatens Gulf countries, with the gist of the point: if the U.S. launches airstrikes again, any Arab country that provides bases or conveniences to the U.S. will become targets of Iran's retaliation.
To put it bluntly, Iran is drawing red lines early and putting the risk of war spillover into the open. This move is very ruthless because the Gulf countries control the world's most important oil transport route, the Strait of Hormuz. Once Iran spoke, the energy market quickly lost control, and international oil prices soared.
This is clear about the financial market transmission chain: escalating geopolitical conflicts→ soaring oil prices→ rising global inflation expectations→ delayed Fed rate cut expectations→ tightening liquidity. For the crypto market, risk assets are the first to be sold off, and BTC and ETH will face short-term pressure from capital outflows.
Impact on the market
In the short term: Panic indices surge, and funds are accelerating their flight from risk assets. The transmission path is: escalating geopolitical conflicts→ erupting global risk-averse sentiment→ US stock futures falling→ crypto markets falling accordingly. BTC fell 0.93% in 24 hours, ETH fell 2.29%, indicating that ETH faced heavier selling pressure during the panic market, with funds prioritizing the withdrawal of highly volatile assets.
Mid-term: If Iran really takes action against the Gulf countries, global supply chains will be impacted, and rising inflation will force the Fed to maintain a high interest rate environment. This is structurally negative for the crypto market, which relies on liquidity premiums for survival. Institutional funds will delay entry, and ETF inflows may slow or even turn into outflows.
My judgment
Honestly, I'm on the bearish side at this level. BTC at $64,896.53 shows no signs of stabilization, and panic is still spreading. Support below is the $62,000 round number. If Iran makes further military moves tonight, a direct breakout is not a question. ETH is even weaker; the $1,919.03 price could break below the $1,850 support level at any time. I suggest not rushing to catch the flying knife in the short term; wait until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer.
🎯 Influence prediction
- Currency: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉, predicted decline
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
❓ If you agree with this pullback, give me a like and see how many people have managed to hold back
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#地缘政治
⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice