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$GRASS
This rebound isn’t convincing me yet.
I’m watching the 0.715–0.725 area closely. If price gets rejected there, the short setup stays interesting.
Unlocks are still adding supply into the picture.
For me, 0.73 is the line that invalidates the setup.Brothers, don't be fooled, at this time, absolutely don't be fooled!
Don't believe that just because there's a deep V pattern, it means a reversal or a bottom has been reached.
Remember, it is always an altcoin.
What is the characteristic of an altcoin?
Simply put, once a crash occurs, especially after a big whale dumps, the price will only go lower and lower.
Don't be fooled by its sharp rise this time; its nature has never changed.
Whether from a macro perspective or the K-line chart, nothing can change its fate as an altcoin!
Look at the recently released negative news, clearly stating "$ZEC market decline: market affected by large whale sell-off and NFT ecosystem failure."
Technical weakness, poor ecosystem, even the fundamentals are rotten. What do you have to believe it can reverse?
Look at the K-line, dropping sharply from 1663 to 1355, a full $300 decline, and now it bounces back to 1420 and some are calling a bull return?
This is clearly a whale trap, giving those who haven't escaped one last chance to run!
On the macro side, the upcoming non-farm payroll and PCE data will hit hard, with the probability of a rate hike in October approaching 70%, and liquidity tightening.
The retail long-short ratio is still extremely crowded; most people are still dreaming, while smart big money has already been selling on the rebound.
I entered a short at 1611, and my floating profit has exceeded 120%.
I don't need to shout slogans; I only know the destiny of altcoins is to go to zero.
Every rebound now is just handing chips to the shorts.
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The depth of the orders below is really unbearable to look at. This thin layer of buy orders is less of a support and more like a vacuum zone left for large orders to smash in. Expecting a bullish counterattack in such a low-volume market is really treating the main players like philanthropists. The open interest is moving sideways, and there is basically no capital entering the spot market. The current multi-timeframe oversold conditions are all just emotional indicators hyping themselves up. I'm currently watching from the sidelines; this kind of game has no liquidity, and entering now would just make you a stepping stone for those slight fluctuations. Better to save your bullets and wait for the real prey to appear.
$BTC $ETH Maji, I checked this position on-chain, *the snapshot you gave is old, now it's an even more extreme version*, it's really tough.
*Latest position monitored on September 27 by @ai_9684xtpa:*
- *$ETH long 32,525 contracts, 25x leverage*, average price *$2,668.35*, currently floating profit $1.32 million, but *within 7 days floating profit went from $6.2 million → $3.96 million → $1.45 million*, worn down by repeated take-profit and stop-loss
- *$BTC long 392 contracts, 40x leverage*, average price *$84,080.1*, floating profit $170,000, the $BTC $84,132 you mentioned is right at his cost line
- *$HYPE long 213,500 contracts, 10x leverage*, average price *$93.11*, currently floating loss $40,000, the $92.21 → $93.11 you mentioned is him adding more as it fell
The *36,000 contracts $96M liquidation at $2,581* you mentioned is the version before September 26. On the 26th, ETH spiked to $2,787, Trend Research's Yilihua $1.85 billion position was forced to reduce leverage, Maji was also liquidated once, then reopened with the remaining $220,000, which is the current version.
*Why does he always pump after being liquidated?* Have you noticed that most people always make the wrong choice at critical resistance levels?
BTC is currently at 83969, about to hit the 84000 resistance level. Many people see it about to break through and chase longs at 83900, but as soon as they enter, the resistance pushes it down, and they don't even have time to stop loss.
True experts wait. They wait for the price to break through 84000 and hold steady, confirming the breakout is valid before entering. At this point, you can set a very tight stop loss, at 83700, and the risk-reward ratio immediately becomes favorable.
I previously lost 200,000 U because I kept chasing orders at resistance levels. Later, I learned the phrase "wait for confirmation," and my win rate doubled instantly.
Remember: don't chase breakouts, only enter after confirmation. Open a position with 5000 U, never hold a losing position without a stop loss, take it slow.
The support below is at 83319; if it pulls back and stabilizes there, that's also a good opportunity to go long. $BTC #Are we seriously turning bearish on $BTC over a 5% correction back into the resistance we just broke?
We break resistance and everyone wants higher. We come back to retest it and suddenly people are questioning whether they should be bearish.
This is the retest I laid out as the likely scenario before another push higher. Broken resistance between $81-$83K being tested to see whether buyers will now defend it as support.
Standard procedure.
I’m still expecting a bit more downside toward $81KWhat was bound to happen has happened.
A few days ago, I was still wondering why BTC wasn't dropping, and today I give you the answer directly.
Don't get carried away when it rises, and don't panic when it falls.
The hardest thing in the crypto world has never been understanding the ups and downs, but whether you still have bullets in your hand when the market truly gives you an opportunity.
Today BTC returned to around 83,000, ETH and SOL followed with a pullback, mainly due to the continued rise in US Treasury yields and oil prices, reigniting market concerns about further interest rate hikes, putting overall risk assets under pressure. (CoinDesk)
So now you ask me if you can buy in?
My answer is simple: don't chase the dip, wait for support.
BTC:
Around 82,500, 80,000
ETH:
Around 2,650, 2,540
SOL:
Around 114, 107
You can watch these levels in batches, don't go all in at once.
During the previous surge, I kept reminding everyone not to blindly chase, even if it means earning a little less, it's more comfortable than catching the last high.
Now that the pullback has really come, there's no need to be so nervous.
Moreover, the capital hasn't completely withdrawn; on September 28, the US spot BTC ETF still had about $31.1 million net inflow, and the ETH spot ETF has maintained net inflows for the 7th consecutive trading day. (Pluang)
So what I’m more focused on now is:
Where to buy on the dip, and where to look for a rebound after buying.
Not guessing the daily ups and downs, but waiting for the market to bring the price into our plan. ETH
Ambush short near 2715
Take profit at 2695-2675-2655
Stop loss at 2745
The current market high at 2806 has not been broken, forming a 30-minute downward pivot. The invalidation of the 5-minute triple sell from yesterday has shifted to today's 30-minute pivot with a wide oscillation between the upper boundary at 2740 and the lower boundary at 2630. No breakout or departure segment has occurred; the main direction remains to short at highs.$ZEC 此前在 $1,690附近 遇到强阻力，随后快速回落至 $1,400区域。 市场焦点也转向一笔超过 20K ZEC 的巨鲸仓位变动——如果大量筹码进入市场，短线供需平衡可能被迅速打破。 现在真正值得观察的是： 🐋 巨鲸释放的供应能否被买盘充分吸收？ 📉 还是说这轮回调只是更大规模重置的开始？ 关键区域暂时关注 $1,400附近 的价格反应。 我更关注市场如何消化这波供应，而不是看到大跌后直接追着进场。 先看反应，再等确认。 👀📊 $ZEC $BTC #ZEC #Crypto #WhaleAlert #DailyOrbitAt that moment, a dangerous thought pops into your mind: making money is actually this easy. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Many people start rolling positions at this step and then fall deeper step by step. Rolling positions themselves isn't the problem; it's essentially an amplifier. If the direction is right, profits multiply; If the direction is wrong, losses multiply as well. The real fatal thing is often not the first trade, but after several consecutive mistakes, people start to develop the illusion of "I can't be wrong." They make profits but are reluctant to leave; when they lose, they don't want to sell. The positions grow larger and larger, taking profits is delayed again and again, always thinking they can push again. But once the market reverses slightly, the earlier profits quickly return to the market, and in severe cases, even the principal is lost. I am now much more cautious than before. Always keep your first position small through trial and error; if the direction is wrong, exit immediately, and set a limit on losses in advance. Only when you're on the right path do you consider gradually adding profits with the profits you've already earned, never moving your principal and never betting your entire fortune on the next stage. Another habit I think is especially important: when your account reaches a certain stage, proactively withdraw part of your profits. Because no matter how good the numbers on the market look, if you don't cash out, it could drop to zero at any time. Rolling over positions isn't something you can play in every market. When the one-sided trend is clear, you can amplify the trend, add positions back and forth in a volatile market, and in the end, it's not rolling big profits but making your position increasingly chaotic. Only those who can exit, pocket it, and refund when mistakes are allowed to stay on the table. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员: Micron earnings report approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus #美债收益率创2007年来新高, gold drops over 3%🏛️ A Senate investigation just found 84% of Iran-linked sanctioned wallets ran almost entirely on USDT
846 wallets were examined. 84% transacted exclusively or almost exclusively in Tether $BTC
Investigators say Tether was slow to freeze sanctioned wallets. Senator Richard Blumenthal is now calling on Treasury and the Justice Department to look into potential sanctions violations
$ETH $ACT/USDT 1H
ACT has built a clean sequence of higher lows from 0.010319 and is trading above all three moving averages. Price is now approaching the 0.010724 daily high.
Entry: 0.01058–0.01064 on a retest
Stop-loss: 0.01047
TP1: 0.010724
TP2: 0.01085
TP3: 0.01100
The bullish structure remains valid while 0.01050 holds.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh Gold has plummeted sharply these past two days, silver has crashed even harder, and Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have fallen in sync. On the surface, it looks like gold is dropping, but the core truth is that long-term U.S. Treasury yields have surged past their highest record since 2007. With risk-free high yields available, who would hold non-yielding gold?
Why is this happening? Oil prices are rising again, inflationary pressures are reigniting, and the Fed's rate hike expectations have directly hit 70%. The dollar is strengthening, capital is rushing wildly into U.S. Treasuries, and gold's opportunity cost has instantly skyrocketed, getting crushed to the ground. Silver's dual attributes have failed, with both safe-haven and industrial demand being suppressed simultaneously.
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are falling together, following the exact same logic. In the eyes of macro capital, Bitcoin is currently a high-beta risk asset tied to the Nasdaq, so when rate hikes drain liquidity, it inevitably takes a hit. Spot ETFs can provide some buffer, but facing tightening dollar liquidity, this buying support can't hold the overall market.
I've repeatedly emphasized that data weeks are survival weeks. PCE and non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet, and major funds are retreating early. The current crash is a repricing of high interest rate expectations. Don't think you can bottom-fish just because prices have fallen a lot, and don't assume gold's drop means the safe-haven logic has failed. In the short term, it's just being beaten down by U.S. Treasuries.
My stance is clear: don't catch a falling knife, don't heavily bet on a one-sided move. Hold spot steadily, and unload short-term leverage when necessary. Wait for macro data to come out and see clearly whether inflation is falling; only then will the direction become clear. Preserving capital and surviving through the data week is more important than anything else. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Last night, a piece of news directly sent me into a short position—ZEC's bullish super whale got hung out to dry.
Position: $28.77 million long, entry price 1622, quantity 18,000 coins, currently floating a loss of $1 million.
ZEC has risen from a low of $15, increasing dozens of times. Now if this trend reverses and the hype cools down, the 1622 level will most likely become a family heirloom.
If even the whale got hung out, are retail investors still dreaming of bottom fishing?
Of course, there's also a saying the other way around: fortune favors the bold, but the timid starve. The key is what kind of bold you are—bold following the trend, or bold resisting it.
In this trade, the shorts got the meat, the longs got hung out to dry. $ZEC You were right about the first half of your sentence—*the money wasn’t lost, it was locked by logic, but not the kind of “key shard corruption” you think.*
The latest full picture has come out, dated September 6, and it’s not just an ordinary pause:
*What exactly happened:*
- *It’s not a withdrawal freeze, 4000 BTC were actually withdrawn:* The attacker exploited two consensus vulnerabilities in the underlying `Elements v23` to mint *4000 uncollateralized LBTC* out of thin air. The reserve originally was *4,205 BTC*, instantly dropping to *197 BTC*, with 95% drained.
- *How it was withdrawn:* Through SideSwap’s Peg-out Authorization Key (PAK) using the normal redemption process. Blockstream emphasized that *the 15 consortium members’ private keys were not leaked, and the PAK was not cracked*; the code verification step mistakenly accepted fake LBTC as genuine. daced0775b66
*Where things stand now:*
1. On September 6 at 18:26 UTC, Blockstream shut down the bridge nodes, pausing the entire network and exchanges stopped LBTC deposits and withdrawals.
2. The attacker left an on-chain message saying “We are white hats,” demanding the vulnerability be fixed before returning the funds.
3. On September 7, *3400 BTC* was returned, with *598.5 BTC (~$51 million) still unpaid*, and the attacker is asking for a 10% bounty.
4. On September 10, the consortium patched with `v23.3.4`,When trading and making decisions, you must be confident enough to believe in the rationality of your judgment, but at the same time, you must recognize one reality: the market always has the right to prove you wrong.
In other words, until the market breaks your expectation, your thinking is correct.
Once the market triggers a stop loss, it means your judgment has failed, and there is no luck involved. Therefore, in trading, you must follow the rules and execute according to the principles.
Before entering a position, you need to think in advance about the watershed price level, clearly knowing at which price your current thinking is falsified by the market.
This point is your stop loss. Once the price touches it, do not hesitate; exit decisively. This is the fundamental iron rule of trading.
Why emphasize this repeatedly? Because human nature is to hate losses. We always want to wait a little longer, hoping it will come back, wanting to hold on a bit more. But it is precisely this mentality that turns what could have been a small loss exit into a major loss.
Looking back, almost every liquidation and deep trap is directly caused by violating this rule.
Trading is not about proving how often you are right, but about whether you can decisively admit when you are wrong.
Survive first, then talk about profits. Remember: confidence gets you in, discipline gets you out. $BTC #HBAR Position Size Suddenly Doubled
HBAR rose 21%, but what really alarms me is not the increase itself, but that the contract positions nearly doubled within a day.
As of 14:57 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.11795, up approximately 21.3% in 24 hours, with a trading volume equivalent to about $57.9 million. The intraday high reached $0.13101, and the price has since retraced about 10% from that peak.
More importantly, the contracts. OKEx hourly statistics show that the open interest nominal value rose from about $6.89 million at 14:00 yesterday to about $14.12 million at 14:00 today, an increase of approximately 104.9% in 24 hours. The current funding rate is about 0.0092%, with longs paying a positive fee, but it has not yet reached an extreme level.
My judgment is that leveraged funds have clearly participated in this rally. However, the doubling of positions does not necessarily mean all new positions are long. The current price has moved away from the high; if positions remain elevated while the price fails to reclaim around $0.131, crowded positions are more likely to amplify the next volatility.
If the price subsequently retakes the intraday high and the growth rate of positions cools down, it indicates turnover is digesting; if the price continues to fall while positions remain high, liquidation risk may be greater than what the price increase chart suggests.
$HBAR The worst thing is to believe rumors without verification. I've bought ZEC a few times with flying knife trades to lower the cost basis.
ZEC has such a strong narrative; a big crash won't happen.According to Axios, U.S. officials said Trump is willing to consider easing some sanctions and releasing frozen assets if Iran makes concrete concessions on the nuclear issue. (Axios) After the news broke, crude oil prices fell rapidly, and the market began trading again on expectations of "supply risk relief." Previously, when Trump rejected the Iran proposal, oil prices rose significantly; Later, with news of easing sanctions, WTI fell from near $95 to about $91.50. (FXStreet) But it should be noted: Trump later publicly denied having proposed a sanctions exemption plan to Iran, stating that "nothing has been offered." Currently, there are still clear differences between the two sides, and negotiations are progressing through intermediaries. (Reuters) 📌 What really matters is not the phrase "reach an agreement," but whether oil prices can continue to fall. If Middle East supply risks further decline: 🛢️ the crude oil risk premium → may continue to contract 📉, inflationary pressures → may ease 📈, risk assets → have the opportunity for a more accommodative pricing environment, and $BTC's short-term performance is also worth watching. If the oil price decline can be sustained rather than a rapid rebound triggered solely by news, then the market's repricing of macro risks may be more important than a single piece of news itself $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Oil #Iran #Crypto #DailyOrbit#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
7 billion in 7 days, ETF funds have indeed returned, but this wave is driven by macro expectations, not the crypto's own fundamentals. Funds are concentrated in BTC, ETH hasn't kept up.
Net inflow on September 25 was 134.5 million, exceeding 100 million daily for 7 consecutive days, totaling 2.9783 billion. The turning point was September 21, nearly 1 billion in a single day, the largest since October last year. The cumulative net inflow for the year turned positive at 886.8 million from a negative 5.69 billion. The ETF average cost is 81,722 USD, BTC stands above this line, holders return to floating profit.
Selling pressure has eased, but don't assume a trend reversal. Watch if the cumulative inflow for the year can maintain a daily average of 300 million, and whether ETH can catch up. Missing one means the market is just a recovery. BTC returned to 84000, but new long contracts didn't push the price up.
OKX quotes: BTC 83246 (-0.29%), ETH +0.45%, SOL -1.80%, SUI -9.68%, ZEC -11.61%. BTC's decline is narrowing, perpetual positions rose from about 2.343 billion in the morning to 2.387 billion, with a slightly positive funding rate.
More people are entering, but the price hasn't followed—the added leverage just stacked positions back, the spot trend remains weak.
On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about 2.45 billion over the past 7 days, with continuous support; high-elasticity assets continue to drop, and funds haven't spread to altcoins. During the same period, SUI perpetual positions were about 43.95 million, with a funding rate close to 0.01%—the price dropped nearly 10%, yet longs are still paying to stay; if the rebound fails, position reductions will amplify the decline further.
Longs are piling up fuel, ignition awaits the PCE. $BTC "Black Hair and SanDisk have both dropped to 1700, and you still won't run?
What if it rebounds to 1800?"
Yesterday, a friend sent me this message. I didn't reply.
Because I know, the person asking this question is most likely still stuck at 1780.
The biggest mistake retail investors make is always trying to catch the bottom and escape the top.
But real hunters never eat the head or tail of the fish; they only eat the fattest middle part.
SanDisk's CEO reduced holdings twice at 1527 and 1574, cashing out over 104 million in total.
The people who know the company best exchanged their chips for cash above 1700.
Meanwhile, Rosenblatt is still calling for 2400.
When institutions are bullish but the boss is running away, I've seen this kind of divergence too many times.
On today's 15-minute chart, the price bounced back from 1687 to 1731, but the volume was only half of what it was during the decline.
This is not a reversal; it's a window for those chasing the rally to get off.
My short position at 1887.5 is still open, with an unrealized profit of 82%. I haven't exited because the time hasn't come yet.
Don't be surprised if it breaks below 1700 next week. Real declines never give advance notice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 最新数据显示，9月中东原油出口预计已恢复至约 1280万桶/日，达到冲突以来的高位，约接近冲突前水平的八成。沙特恢复延长管线运输，也帮助部分原油出口重新回升。(Reuters) 与此同时，美伊双方仍在通过卡塔尔等中间方进行接触，重点围绕停火、解除部分制裁以及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡展开。 伊朗方面提出的条件包括解除制裁、解冻部分资产，并希望结束相关封锁；作为交换，伊方表示愿意推动霍尔木兹海峡重新开放并恢复核问题谈判。(The Straits Times) 但这里还有一个关键点值得关注 👀 ⚠️ 石油出口恢复 ≠ 航运完全恢复。 虽然原油流量明显回升，但霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行仍明显低于冲突前水平，航运风险和保险成本依旧存在。(Lloyd’s List Intelligence) 对于 $BTC 和 $ETH 来说，接下来市场可能继续关注两个变量： 🕊️ 美伊谈判是否出现实质性进展 🛢️ 原油供应和霍尔木兹航运能否进一步恢复 如果地区风险溢价继续下降，全球风险资产的定价逻辑也可能随之发生变化。 但目前谈判仍存在较大分歧，伊朗官员也对短期内达成协议持谨慎态度。(The Straits Ti📉 BTC 1H: Bearish pressure remains
$BTC is currently oscillating between $82.8K and $84.2K, with the 1H structure still favoring a descending channel. After repeatedly testing the upper boundary, the price has pulled back, near $83.8K which also approaches the dynamic MA100, indicating noticeable selling pressure.
Volume has not significantly increased, so the rebound strength is currently limited. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield once reaching around 5.27%, and the high interest rate environment continues to pressure risk assets.
📌 Trading plan: • Watch the shorting zone: $83,650–$83,950
• Defense level: above $84,450
• First target: $82,200
• Second target: $80,500–$80,000
However, ETF funds remain an important market variable. The U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded about $2.4B net inflow in the week ending September 25, indicating ongoing capital demand recently, so shorts need to closely watch if support appears near $82K.
⚠️ If BTC reclaims above $84.5K, the bearish structure mentioned above needs to be reassessed.
No chasing orders, just wait for confirmation; prioritize stop loss and control position size.
$BTC #USTreasuryYieldHigh #BTCETFInflows #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #DailyOrbit #OKXOrbit Long and Short Crowding List
$NMR price is rising, with high cost for shorts to pay: current rate -0.1915%, historical 1% percentile (100 settlements); price up 0.29%.
$XDP currently paid by shorts: current rate -0.0396%; historical sample only 8 settlement points, limited sample; price down 0.13%.
$ZEC positive rate is relatively high, with high cost for longs to pay: current rate +0.0100%, historical 100% percentile (100 settlements); price up 1.37%.Okx has launched a staking event for Ethereum with USDT rewards. I have transferred all my Binance Ethereum to Okx; with two luxurious pork knuckle meals a day, it should be covered, lasting for 5 days.
After Bitget opened withdrawals, some people might lose trust in Bitget. Okx is running a reward event just in time to attract users and funds flowing out of Bitget.
The business competition among exchanges is everywhere now. It's all about competing for existing users and funds through various VIP activities. The exchange business is getting tougher, but the Matthew effect still applies: the winner takes all, and the strong get stronger.[Old Leek Observation]
$BTC
There is an interesting point about BTC this time: the price has fallen from above $87,000 to around $83,000, but the funds have not retreated together.
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow close to $1 billion, the highest single-day amount this year.
From September 21 to 25, the ETF had a total net inflow of about $2.4 billion.
But the problem is also obvious.
The subsequent fund inflow is rapidly cooling down, with only about $191 million left on September 24.
In other words, institutional funds have indeed returned, but a sustained acceleration has not yet formed.
Entry: $83,500–$84,100
Take profit: $85,000 / $86,500 / $88,000 / $92,000
Stop loss: $82,500CORE's global offline Meetup layout: Why focus on Africa and Southeast Asia?
CORE's overseas offline events are not limited to Korea's KBW; the team continuously holds developer offline salons in regions such as Nigeria, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
Unlike the mature crypto markets in Europe and America, these emerging markets have a large user base, faster growth of crypto users, and users show high acceptance of BTC staking and low-threshold DeFi.
The team's strategy is clear: avoid competing in already saturated markets, prioritize building local communities in emerging markets, cultivate local developers, and tap into new traffic.
The advantage is gaining incremental users; the downside is that users in emerging markets generally have smaller capital sizes, making it difficult to quickly bring large-scale institutional funds and on-chain assets.
Some are optimistic about this long-term user accumulation, while others believe that the community enthusiasm in emerging markets is hard to translate into token market performance.The first time I bought crypto was while watching a live stream.
The streamer shouted that $BTC was going to the moon.
I deposited 500 yuan, bought it, and then it dropped.
That night I tossed and turned, still watching the market at 3 a.m.
Later I realized it wasn’t the coin’s fault, I just wanted to make quick money too badly.
When holding $ETH, I’d sell after a 5% rise and cut losses after a 5% drop.
After going back and forth a few times, the fees were enough to pay for a hotpot meal.
Then I tried $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
One line goes up, another goes down, my heart really couldn’t take it.
Now I don’t watch trading calls anymore.
When people in the group show off their profits, I just swipe away.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it’s all traps.
I’ve seen people get insanely arrogant after making money.
And I’ve seen people lose so much they don’t dare tell their families.
In this circle, people turn on each other faster than flipping a page.
So I only use spare money; losing it won’t affect my meals.
If I make money, I don’t get cocky; if I lose, I don’t make a fuss. Being able to sleep well is the most real.
Don’t mistake luck for skill.
Don’t treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant—I’ve long since accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ZEC Hackers also stole ZEC, and no one can freeze it; this issue is much more serious than yesterday's big bearish candle.
Bitget theft has expanded to $387.5 million, including ZEC assets. Hackers transferred them to THORChain, which refused to intercept citing "decentralization and inability to freeze." These stolen assets will continue to flood the market over the next few weeks, with supply pressure still unresolved.
Futures open interest shrank by 10% in one day, with leveraged funds withdrawing first; meanwhile, spot institutions are still steadily buying. Smart money is diverging on both sides: derivatives retreat, spot remains stable.
Technically, 1,485 fell back below the 14-day moving average, 1,537 is capped by the 7-day moving average, and the 30-day +71% deviation is still correcting.
Stop loss at 1,345, rebound target 1,580-1,650. I won’t chase the rebound until the stolen assets are cleared.$BCH
During market fluctuations, does BCH's relative strength have sustainability?
Capital concentration and supply narratives can drive the market, but spot transaction confirmation is needed. If the pullback volume shrinks and the lows move higher, the trend remains healthy.
If there is a high-volume drop back into the breakout range, I would consider the strong structure to be broken.#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Bro, gold crashed last night, dropping over 3%, spot prices hit a seven-week low at one point, and silver also fell nearly 5%. The reason is simple: US Treasury yields exploded again.
The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, the 30-year hit 5.55%, both the highest since 2007. With risk-free yields this high, who would hold non-yielding gold? As the dollar strengthens, gold prices face even more pressure.
It's still the same chain behind it. Oil prices are rising again, inflation worries resurface, and the market's pricing for an October rate hike has already reached 70%. Gold couldn't hold up, and US stocks and Bitcoin also pulled back.
Pay attention to the timing: PCE and non-farm payroll data are about to be released. The market is preemptively trading on high interest rate expectations, trying to get ahead. If the upcoming data beats expectations again, rate hike pressure will only increase, and risk assets will take another hit.
So don't rush to bottom-fish gold, nor Bitcoin. Betting on direction before the data drops is like flipping a coin. Those holding low-position chips should hold their base positions steady; those without positions should wait for PCE and non-farm data, then act once the direction is clear. Save your ammo, don't get wiped out. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $XAU $BTC $ETH #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
The US Treasury yields are causing trouble again.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield also jumped to 5.55%. Gold crashed, dropping over 3%, at one point down 4% intraday, and silver fell nearly 5%. Oil prices continue to rise, inflation concerns are back, and the probability of a rate hike in October has reached 70%. The US dollar strengthens, and both the US stock market and BTC have retreated.
So what impact does this have on the crypto space? Let me break it down in two layers.
First, money has become more expensive, and all risk assets are getting hit. With risk-free yields above 5%, why would institutions take risks in crypto? That’s why Bitcoin is falling. Even gold, a non-yielding asset, can’t hold up, so Bitcoin will struggle to stay strong in the short term.
Second, the market is already pricing in expectations of high interest rates. The PCE and non-farm payroll data haven’t been released yet, but funds are already fleeing. When the data actually comes out, if inflation still can’t be controlled, Bitcoin will likely take another hit in the short term.
Here’s my take.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish just because gold has dropped. The market is trading on high interest rate expectations, and non-yielding assets are being sold off. Bitcoin is the same—don’t be quick to catch a falling knife. Wait for the PCE and non-farm data to land and the direction to become clear before making a move. At this point, controlling your impulses is more important than anything.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Sharing the latest news from the Middle East with everyone.
Iran's Foreign Minister said they hope the US, through Qatar as an intermediary, will provide a final response on the Hormuz Strait proposal by Tuesday.
On Monday, Trump directly rejected Iran's proposal, causing oil prices to surge $4 instantly. But the market realized that negotiations were not completely blocked, so hopes for pricing negotiations resumed, and oil prices gave back most of the gains. Today, supply concerns still dominate, pushing oil prices higher again.
Tuesday is a critical window.
Before Tuesday, the market will repeatedly play the negotiation expectations, with news tugging back and forth, continuing to disturb the market.
Two possible outcomes:
First, if the US gives a positive response on Tuesday, geopolitical risk premiums will fade, oil prices will fall back, and risk asset sentiment will ease.
Second, if no agreement is reached on Tuesday, supply risks in the Strait will rise again, oil prices will strengthen once more, and risk-off sentiment will increase, suppressing the crypto market.
Back to the market, Bitcoin currently shows a weekly doji, with a 4-hour correction still ongoing, and ETF inflows have already weakened.
The Middle East is just a disturbance factor, only amplifying volatility, not changing the major trend.
Don't bet on the news prematurely; wait for Tuesday's results to land before watching the market reaction. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Today, BTC's trend is a bit frustrating. After dropping from the high of 87374, it has been oscillating between 83000 and 85000.
It is currently stuck at 83962, which is the bulls' "psychological defense line."
If it can hold above 84000 with increased volume tomorrow, there might be a rebound; but if it falls below 83154, be cautious as it may test the support at 79441.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; wait for a clear signal before making a move.
Mid-term investors can consider buying in batches on dips, but avoid heavy positions. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC $ZEC/USDT 1H
ZEC is attempting a rebound from 1,355.67, but the broader hourly trend remains pressured below MA20. This needs confirmation rather than anticipation.
Entry: Above 1,421 after an hourly close
Stop-loss: 1,389
TP1: 1,440
TP2: 1,467
TP3: 1,489
Rejection at 1,421 keeps 1,385 support vulnerable.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh Many people see liquidation as an "accident." But mechanistically, liquidation is precisely the perpetual contract working as intended. Without an expiration date, a forced exit mechanism is needed to prevent losses from expanding indefinitely. When the margin falls below the maintenance margin, the platform automatically closes the position at market price — this is not a system failure, but risk control in action.
What really needs attention is the execution quality at the time of liquidation. Market orders in a liquid market won't differ much from the quoted price, but in a thin order book or during extreme volatility, slippage can be several times your expected loss. This is why professional traders watch order book depth in addition to fees — for the same position and trigger price, actual liquidation losses can vary significantly across platforms.
High leverage itself is not dangerous; the danger lies in the gap between your expected stop-loss price and the actual execution price. The size of that gap is the value of execution quality.Have you figured out the temperament of each of these five cards?
The most honest on the board—no emotional interference, it's clear at a glance who's strong and who's weak.
Five cards flipped over, showing you their temper one by one.
$SOL near 120, the most aggressive card. Bitcoin stays still while it rises on its own; yesterday it surged with volume above 120, today it pulled back with low volume but didn't break down.
The most resolute in an independent trend. Holding above 120 targets 128; breaking below 115 means weakness. This card is suitable as a vanguard, charging at the front.
$ETH near 2700, the steadiest card. The staking rate is still climbing, long-term funds locked inside without moving. Low gas fees indicate the chain is temporarily quiet.
But from another perspective, if a hotspot emerges, the cost to explode is at rock bottom. 2700 is the watershed.
$BTC near 84200, the tone-setting card. ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high; institutions are stacking real money, but retail investors are scared off by the non-farm payrolls and hesitate to move.
If it doesn't move, the other four are just small skirmishes; once it moves, the whole market follows.
OKB near 121, the quietest card. High lock-up ratio, buybacks never stopped, chips all held tightly.
It resists declines when the market falls, lags slightly when the market rises, but the advantage is holding steady. 120 has real value as a floor, with little room to fall further.
RE near 0.47, the wildest card. Market cap only tens of millions, usually no one pays much attention. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
But RWA is one of the narratives institutions value most this year; once this small-cap coin catches fund attention, its elasticity is much greater than mainstream cards. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 CORE Major Upgrade: Gas Fee Reflow Mechanism Launched, Distributing Transaction Fees to Ecosystem Developers
CORE's Theseus hard fork introduces a crucial new mechanism: protocol-level Gas fee sharing.
In most public blockchains, gas fees generated by transactions are mostly burned or given to node validators. CORE's change this time allows a portion of on-chain transaction fees to be directly returned to the dApp project that generated the transaction.
This model changes the ecosystem incentive logic. Developers no longer have to rely solely on token airdrops to attract users; as long as the application generates on-chain interactions, it can continuously receive protocol revenue sharing. For the BTC-Fi sector, stablecoin projects, staking protocols, and DEXs can all rely on this mechanism to obtain sustained income.
The overseas developer community discusses that this mechanism is designed to solve the old problem of public chains "only relying on token subsidies, and when subsidies stop, the ecosystem stagnates."
However, implementation also requires time, and whether it can attract high-quality projects to continuously settle depends on the actual on-chain transaction volume in the future. MoonPay has released something called the MoonAgents Card, with a very special positioning—it’s not for people, but for AI agents. Based on the Mastercard network, it connects to self-custody wallets, with funds staying on-chain until the very last moment of the transaction. If a transaction is rejected, the funds automatically return to the wallet, and authorization can be revoked at any time.
It sounds a bit sci-fi, but the logic holds. AI agents are already conducting transactions, payments, and value transfers on-chain. CZ previously said that the payment volume of AI agents in the future will be a million times that of humans. The problem is they can’t open bank accounts, and traditional payment systems don’t recognize their identity. This card is essentially an interface that allows AI agents to use stablecoin balances to directly make purchases at global Visa merchants.
Currently, it’s only launched in the UK and Latin America, with plans to expand to the US and the EU later. Regardless of how long it takes for this scenario to become widespread, one signal is clear: stablecoins are extending from being a medium of exchange to a payment tool, and further to the settlement layer of the machine economy.Gold intraday tracking on the morning of September 29
Morning view is clear: the market is in a bearish structure, and the slight rebound is just a technical correction during the downtrend. Short positions can be arranged in the 4135-4150 rebound range.
The intraday rebound peaked near 4148. After testing the resistance zone, the price failed to break through effectively. The bulls lacked upward momentum, and selling pressure above continued to appear. The resistance zone given in the morning was validated.
The hourly bearish major structure remains unchanged. The current market is still a consolidation correction after the decline. Do not judge the trend reversal just because of a slight rebound.
The strategy remains unchanged: continue to prioritize shorting on rebounds under pressure. Only if the price stabilizes above 4176 should the market be reassessed.
This week is the Non-Farm Payroll data week, with large market fluctuations. Trade with the trend, strictly use stop-loss for all entries, and manage position size.🚀 HBAR/USDT Short-Term Prediction
HBAR is holding strong near $0.118 after surging to a peak of $0.131.
* Bullish Case: Staying above $0.105 (MA5) keeps buyers in control. Pushing past $HBAR 0.120 sets up a retest of $0.131+.
* Bearish Case: A drop below $0.105 could trigger a pullback toward key support at $0.099 (MA10).
Verdict: Strong breakout structure intact while above $0.105, targeting $0.131+. WLD pulling the same trick again? $49 million OTC locked for one year, and as soon as the news broke, trading volume exploded!
This storyline is actually familiar. In March, WLD did a $65 million OTC, and the price was under pressure afterward; in July, it was sold at a discount to Pantera, also an "institutional takeover" story, with the news sparking a surge before gradually cooling down.
$ARB and $SUI have similar situations: VC discounted OTC + lock-up, the market first hypesCCIP 2 lets businesses add their own validators alongside the default 16-node network. After the USD 292 million Kelp DAO attack, I’ll watch how widely these new security layers are deployed.
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $LINK
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#USTreasuryYieldHigh $SOL/USDT 1H
SOL has recovered strongly from 116.37 and is now pressing directly into 119.07 resistance. Confirmation matters here.
Entry: 119.10–119.25 after an hourly breakout
Stop-loss: 118.45
TP1: 119.70
TP2: 120.02
TP3: 120.75
Failure to hold above 119.07 could send price back toward 118.60.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh That was close, almost dropped out of the top 100. The rewards are the same for ranks 11-100, and also the same for ranks 100-1000. Yesterday afternoon, I was ranked 121. After calculating the cost of dropping below 1000 yesterday, I went all in on France, expecting to push up to around 85th place. It was still close. According to my usual habit, I reduce my position early; if I had reduced half of it midway yesterday, it might have been all for nothing I bought over 200 $SOL in hand, and also added more at over 100.
For this coin, I've both taken profits and held positions. Maybe because I've been stuck with it for a while, I pay more attention to it than other coins.
Last week, the US SOL spot ETF had a net inflow of $188 million, with all 7 products recording capital inflows, and Friday alone set a new record of over $86 million.
Yet today, SOL dropped about 5%.
The price is correcting, but real money is still flowing in. My judgment is clear: as long as subsequent ETF funds don't show a clear reversal, and 115–117 holds, this looks more like a correction, not the end of the trend.
I won't blindly add more, but I will continue holding. If it climbs back above 125, I expect 130–135 next; if it falls below 112, I'll stop adding and reassess the rhythm.
The position bought at over 200 is indeed stuck painfully, but I still believe SOL will return above $200 again.
This isn't just to boost my confidence. Funds are coming in, the ecosystem is still there, the market is just repeatedly testing holders.
If I'm wrong, I admit it.
But this time, I'm willing to keep holding and wait for it to come back and free me from the loss.$BTC/USDT 1H
BTC surged above all three moving averages and is testing the 83,945–84,008 ceiling. Momentum favors buyers, but chasing the large green candle offers poor risk/reward.
Entry: 83,650–83,800 on a controlled retest
Stop-loss: 83,350
TP1: 84,008
TP2: 84,374
TP3: 84,700
An hourly close below 83,467 would weaken the breakout.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh The first time I bought crypto was after scrolling through short videos.
I saw others showing off $BTC, saying it could turn their fortunes around.
I got impulsive and threw in half a month's salary.
But right after buying, the price dropped, so much that I even gave up milk tea.
Those days, I couldn't put my phone down, checking the market even in the bathroom.
I peeked at it secretly at work and got caught by my boss several times.
Later I realized, this thing is made for those who can't accept defeat.
I held $ETH, and whenever it rose a bit, I got itchy to sell.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless, slapping my own face back and forth.
To put it simply, I had no discipline, just going by feeling.
Then I tried $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It surged up in minutes, then crashed down in minutes.
People with weak hearts really shouldn't touch it.
Now I hardly check groups anymore.
I treat the signal calls like comedy.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it's all traps.
I've seen people get wildly arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss. Being able to sleep well is what matters.
Don't mistake luck for skill.
Don't treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market is made for those who can't accept defeat, and I've long accepted it. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Let me ask you a question: If UNI can really still rise, why are early players running away?
Look at the market: UNI has been smashed from 9.04 down to 8.44, then rebounded to 8.73, but the volume simply didn’t keep up.
The upper moving averages are pressing down hard, the MACD histogram has returned to zero, RSI has fallen back from overbought, and momentum is clearly slowing down.
This is not a buildup; someone is using the rebound to sell off.
On-chain data is even more direct.
UNI holdings on exchanges have surged to 113.9 million tokens, with Binance alone holding 73 million.
An early investor just transferred $12.9 million worth of UNI to Wintermute, openly showing the intention to reduce positions off-exchange.
Spot trading volume surged 45%, net capital outflow reached 401 million, accelerating outflow by 2.32 times.
This is not a shakeout; real money is running.
The positive news from CME futures launch has already been priced in.
The smart money long-short ratio is as high as 1.92; crowded long positions themselves are the biggest risk.
I’m still holding my short position, currently floating in profit. The direction is right; the rest is up to time.
After much sifting and filtering, only when the wild sand is blown away does the gold appear.
$BTC $ETH $UNI
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购