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Here are a few polished versions of your update: *1. Clean Version for Posting:* Here we go - $450 to $10,000 Challenge, Day 5/6 Current balance: ∼$700 Withdrawn: $900 Total assets: $1,600 Total profit so far: $1,150 Currently holding a $BTC long. Opened on Friday and still holding. Did a few scalps - low buys, high sells - locked in about $100 profit. The core position had a max floating loss of $200, but now it's back to breakeven and in floating profit. Over the weekend I also did 1 ETH long $SKY
Bitwise has officially announced: On September 30, SKY will be included in the Bitwise Decentralized Finance Crypto Index.
What does this mean? It means that asset management products tracking this index will, in principle, need to adjust their holdings according to the new index composition.
And the Bitwise DeFi Crypto Index Fund, which directly holds the underlying crypto assets, must rebalance monthly according to the index.
So, tomorrow $SKY enters the index → tracking products adjust → this may generate actual SKY buying pressure, which is now clear, just wait for SKY to keep flying after tomorrow.The $ARB unlocked tokens have just been absorbed, and the market has priced in a 10% drop in two days as a supply-side adjustment.
After the cliff unlocking of 139 million tokens on September 23, the price dropped 10% in two days, clearly reflecting supply-side pressure, and there is another batch unlocking on 10/15, so the selling pressure calendar is not over.
The taker buy/sell ratio dropped to 0.68, and the funding rate turned negative, indicating short-term capital is withdrawing, which is even more worth watching than the price drop itself.
Notably, there is a new variable in the ecosystem: the USDAI compute power credit protocol TVL has surged past $600 million, and the RWA + compute power narrative is still accumulating on Arbitrum.
Technically, the 14-day moving average at 0.208 is pressing overhead, while the 30-day moving average at 0.172 is supporting from below.
A rebound target is 0.235-0.25. No fighting before the October 15 unlocking.$ICP This coin, once it breaks through the daily-level consolidation range, which is around 3.4, I estimate it is very likely to directly enter a trending move.
Just refer to the recent surge of $HBAR.
Recently, I noticed a small sign: this rebound is largely led by US project coins, such as HBAR, XLM, LINK, etc.
This market reminds me of the altcoin rally after October 2024, when a batch of US project coins took the lead and produced several-fold gains.
I will continue to observe the market trend and will promptly alert if there are new changes.
Short-term trading is about following the hotspots; wherever the funds flow, that's where we look.The top three most profitable money printers in the crypto world, do you know who they are?
Just looked at the 24-hour protocol fee rankings in the crypto world, and I have only one feeling after reading it: a money printer is a money printer, the numbers are there, no one can fake them.
First, look at the top of the list: Tether 24-hour fees $17.55 million, ranked first. Circle $7.3 million, ranked third. But these two are stablecoin issuers, earning interest money, traditional finance play.
Excluding these two, among native crypto protocols, the real contenders are three money printers: PUMP, UNI, HYPE.
1. $PUMP — Launchpad track benchmark
24-hour fees: $8.28 million
1 year: $1.147 billion
A veteran benchmark in the launchpad track, fee income is used for buyback and burn at a 50% ratio. There is currently a scheduled unlocking.
2. $UNI — DEX track elder brother
24-hour fees: $4.96 million
1 year: $967 million
The more active the on-chain trading, the more UNI collects toll fees. But profits are shared with LPs, so the actual buyback and burn ratio is relatively the lowest.
3. $HYPE — Perpetual contracts
24-hour fees: $2.56 million
1 year: $911 million
Uses income to buy back and burn HYPE, with an annualized burn rate of about 1%.
Among these three, which one do you favor the most? "ZEC's 'Unbreakable Fall': Is It Support or a Short Squeeze?"
Today $ZEC plunged from 1660 to 1375, a nearly 300-point drop. Just as the bears saw a glimmer of hope, it was pulled back to 1425, narrowing the 24-hour decline to 6.86%. My 868.79 short position's floating loss expanded from -174% to -192.18%, with margin left at only 52.26U. More torturous than liquidation is this repeated sawtooth movement.
Why can't it break down further? The order book shows selling dominance, with Bid/Ask around 35:65, but large buy orders pile up near 1425, making it hard for bears to push down. Funding rates remain negative, so crowded shorts still have to pay fees; the market makers don't seem in a hurry to let shorts off the hook. Each drop feels more like a short squeeze washout—cutting some positions then pulling back. Plus, ZEC's narrative remains intact: Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF holds nearly $900 million, Paradigm disclosed investment, NU7 upgrade hasn't launched, so capital is reluctant to give up easily.
Therefore, the move from 1660 to 1375 looks more like a correction, not a trend reversal. 1375 is a key support; if broken, look to 1300; above, 1600 is the stop-loss line for shorts. In the short term, it's highly likely to oscillate between 1400 and 1500. I'll hold my short, but definitely don't recommend stubbornly holding. For a volatile coin like ZEC, both longs and shorts need to find entry points and exit quickly. The same goes for $BTC and $ETH—don't let emotions dictate your moves.
This is just a review, not investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $SKY Bitwise has officially announced: On September 30, SKY will enter the Bitwise Decentralized Finance Crypto Index.
What does this mean? It means that asset management products tracking this Index will, in principle, need to adjust their holdings according to the new index composition.
And the Bitwise DeFi Crypto Index Fund, which directly holds the underlying crypto assets, must rebalance monthly according to the Index.
So, tomorrow $SKY enters the index → tracking products adjust → this may generate actual SKY buy orders, which is now clear, just wait for SKY to keep flying after tomorrow. Trade Log｜Sticking to a low-long strategy, both long positions have turned profitable📝
Yesterday the market pulled back, and I adhered to my trading plan, patiently waiting for the price to fall to key support levels before entering low-long positions, never blindly chasing highs or panicking on dips. The market movement matched my forecast perfectly, and the rebound started as expected. Currently, all positions are in the green, validating the strategy in the market.
APT long position, entry average price 0.8247, current mark price 0.8337, floating profit 10.91%. Positioned at the lower boundary support of the previous consolidation range, the idea of betting on an oversold rebound is confirmed. I continue to hold and observe, deciding on taking profit based on the rebound strength.
OKB long position, entry average price 116.3, current mark price 121.12, floating profit as high as 82.88%. This profit is very substantial, thanks to decisive low buying during the overall pullback of the platform coin. The trend remains intact, so I am moving part of the position up to stop loss to let the profits run further.
The core of trading lies in executing the plan, not emotional operations. Buying low at support and taking profits on rebounds—this rhythm is especially effective in a ranging market. Continuing to maintain discipline and patiently waiting for the next opportunity. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 I took a quick look at the latest TokenLogic Q3 data for $AAVE, and a few numbers immediately stood out. 📈 V4 growth is the first thing to watch. Deposits jumped from $232M → $1.29B — roughly a 5.6x increase. Active loans climbed from $76M → $380M, around 5x growth. That's not just capital entering the protocol — lending activity is expanding alongside it. 🟠 BTC-related collateral is another interesting signal. Across V3 collateral categories, this was the only segment showing quarter-over-qua$ETH keeps bouncing, but the broader trend still looks fragile.
High Treasury yields continue to pressure risk assets, while tomorrow’s PCE data could trigger a sharp move either way.
Don’t confuse a rebound with a confirmed reversal, and remember: unrealized profits can disappear quickly. Manage leverage carefully. 📉
#DailyOrbit Focus on just two data points this week: Core PCE on Wednesday night and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday night. The Fed just finished raising rates, but the market is already betting on another hike in October.
My judgment is simple — inflation is very likely to remain sticky, employment will slow down but is unlikely to collapse. This combination most easily leads officials to stay hawkish. Short-term volatility will increase, so don't rush to chase BTC longs; wait for the data to come out before making a move.ZEC最近的波动真的让人有点招架不住…… 白天好不容易出现一波回落，刚以为终于能喘口气，结果盘面突然又被资金拉了起来，短时间内直接反弹了 近80美元，刚下去一点的空间又被快速收回。 📊 现在的感觉就是： 早上 → 冲高 白天 → 回落 晚上 → 又开始拉升 散户 → 原地懵圈 😭 我本来想着等它回到 $820附近 再处理仓位，结果这一轮又被拉回去了。如果早上高位先落袋、等回调后重新观察，可能会舒服很多。 📰 市场新闻｜ZEC波动仍受资金情绪影响 近期隐私赛道的关注度有所升温，ZEC作为隐私类资产之一，资金进出带来的价格弹性明显高于BTC、ETH等主流资产。 同时，在整体市场仍处于震荡阶段时，中小市值币种更容易出现短时间急拉急跌。尤其是夜间流动性相对变化时，价格波动可能进一步放大。 📌 短线重点观察： 支撑：$810–$830 上方压力：$900附近 关键观察：成交量、资金流向以及是否出现连续放量 ZEC这种行情最怕的不是没机会，而是波动太快，追进去之后马上反方向。 希望它先让我喘口气，再决定下一步怎么走 😂 ⚠️ 以上仅为个人行情记录与市场观察，不构成投资建议。ZEC波动较大#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007, and spot gold plunged more than 3% in a single day. The core logic is the surge in real interest rates. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; as U.S. Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold significantly increases. Funds are withdrawing from gold and shifting to U.S. Treasuries, which provide stable interest payments. Coupled with a stronger dollar, gold prices face rapid selling pressure.
The recent rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is due to two main factors: on one hand, the massive U.S. fiscal deficit leads to continuous increases in government bond supply; on the other hand, high oil prices push inflation stickiness, causing the market to lower rate cut expectations and even reprice the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Short-term geopolitical safe-haven buying is completely suppressed by interest rates, which are the current market's main theme.
As the global asset pricing anchor, sustained high U.S. Treasury yields not only suppress precious metals but also weigh on U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, market volatility will increase.
Going forward, focus on two key signals: whether U.S. Treasury yields can stabilize and decline, and the nonfarm payroll and PCE inflation data. If interest rates continue to rise, gold still has room to adjust; only if yields turn downward will gold have a chance to recover. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData $BTC
The market's bet on an October rate hike has reached 70%, inflation expectations remain high, holding gold yields no interest, with US Treasury yields so high, the opportunity cost is too great, so funds are flowing entirely into the US dollar and US Treasuries.
Gold's safe-haven attribute is temporarily ineffective against interest rates, while BTC, besides being a risk asset, also has a long-term logic as a hedge against fiat currency credit. In the short term, as long as US Treasury yields do not fall, BTC's rebound will be limited.
BTC has also fallen back, but there is a difference to be clear about here: gold's decline is due to safe-haven assets being suppressed by interest rates, while BTC's decline is due to risk assets being drained of liquidity.
$ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% ⚡ $ETH SHORTS WORLD
ETH is struggling near $2.7K again, and bulls still haven’t delivered a convincing breakout.
🎯 Shorts map:
🔴 Resistance: $2,720–$2,750
🟡 Support: $2,650
⚠️ Breakdown: $2,600
🔥 Extended target: $2,550
BTC remains around $83K–$84K, while weakness in $SOL and $ZEC is keeping altcoin sentiment under pressure.
But bears need confirmation 👀
ETH ETF flows have recently stayed positive, so a strong reclaim of $2,750 with volume + OI could squeeze late shorts. $NEAR These guys really made me laugh.
It dips a bit, and someone jumps out shouting "NEAR is going to crash, sell quickly." Please, look at the chart, okay? In the past 7 days, it has still risen by 10.4%. This dip just took back some of the previous overflow, stuck at the middle 56%, and volume is still shrinking, 0.8 times.
Is this called crashing? At most, it's just a yawn.
What annoys me the most are those who cry wolf at every dip and go all in blindly at every rise—you’re not trading crypto, you’re paying tuition for emotions.
My view: $NEAR is currently stuck in the middle, neither bearish nor bullish. I'm slightly bearish. In plain terms—it's not yet time to buy more. If you really want to add to your position, first see if it can digest the recent gains. I haven’t moved a single share these days; I’m just waiting for it to clarify its direction. $NEAR $BTC IS FOLLOWING WYCKOFF ALMOST PERFECTLY. HERE'S MY PLAN.
Feb: capitulation at $62.5K.
July: the shakeout to $58K that broke everyone.
Sept: Sign of Strength at $86K.
Now I expect the backup to $81K–$82K. This one is designed to scare you out.
Hold it, and $90K is next. I'll let price come to me
#DailyOrbit
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Currently, there are many theories about the sharp drop in Bitcoin, with the core logic being front-running before the release of macro data and short covering.
Also, the PCE and non-farm payroll data are about to be released consecutively this week, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the market is extremely sensitive to rate hike expectations. Large funds dare not make reckless moves before the data is released, but the short positions on the market are piled up too heavily.
Now, with a slight push from some buying, shorts are forced to cover, resulting in a forced short squeeze rebound. This is purely an emotional hedge, not a fundamental reversal.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC $ETH $ZEC 9.29 Chen Yu Gold Evening Review: Technical Recovery Struggles to Break Resistance, Short-term Caution for Pullback
During the day, gold prices staged an oversold rebound: starting from the early session low of 4111, prices oscillated upward, reaching a high of 4161, exactly hitting the previous downtrend line resistance, then stopped and pulled back. This rally is essentially a technical rebound after a sharp drop; despite several attempts by bulls, they have never been able to break through this resistance zone.
On the news front, the lingering hawkish tone from Fed officials keeps market expectations for rate cuts low, with the dollar and US Treasury yields hovering at high levels — the interest rate mountain continues to weigh down gold prices, which is the core bearish factor suppressing gold.
On the 15-minute chart, after consecutive rallies, the price has approached the upper Bollinger Band, indicating increasing short-term overbought conditions. The bulls’ momentum is weakening, and calls for a pullback and consolidation are growing louder.
Plan to short in the 4160-4180 rebound range, targeting 4120 and 4100. $BTC $ETH Key Focus! Among these three coins that have not yet started this round, which has the potential for a big surge? $XRP $DOT $ADA
XRP is currently the one with the most catalyst potential. The Batch V1.1 upgrade is expected to activate tonight, having already gained 85.71% validator consensus support. The core feature is to achieve institutional-grade Delivery versus Payment (DvP). Ripple stated that multiple asset management institutions are lining up to use this feature, which constitutes a clear event-driven catalyst.
ADA’s highlights lean towards the medium to long term. Recently, it joined Mastercard’s crypto partner program, focusing on cross-border payments and B2B settlement. On the technical side, integration of the AI agent payment framework x402 is underway. However, the on-chain stablecoin scale is relatively small and ecosystem activity is insufficient, so short-term gains may be relatively moderate.
DOT shows the weakest breakout signals. After the native stablecoin dotUSD proposal passed with a high vote of 97.5%, it once surged 16.7% in a single day. But this positive news has already been priced in earlier, and DOT’s on-chain TVL has been noticeably outpaced by Solana and Ethereum L2s. Ecosystem vitality is the core variable determining whether it can follow the upward trend.
Core logic: Market funds flow more towards coins with clear event-driven catalysts. XRP’s upgrade launch is the most direct catalyst, while ADA and DOT need to wait for substantial breakthroughs in their respective ecosystems to take over.$SNDK shorting immediately! Don't be fooled by the bulls' "total ledger profit" illusion into taking the bag.
On paper, the bulls have an unrealized profit of 2,322,900 U, which looks impressive, right? But the fundamentals are rotten beyond repair; only 41.35% of the bulls are making money, with huge profits monopolized by a tiny minority. More than half of the bulls are suffering underwater. Although the bears have an overall unrealized loss of 303,600 U, nearly 60% of them are profitable.
The rebound of most losing traders is doomed to fail. On the surface, the bulls have turned around, but internally they have long been dragged down by losing positions. I've already gone all in short on this. Ignore the fake total ledger and only look at the real chip situation. Just wait for these struggling bulls to collapse on their own.$AVAX is one of the Layer1 blue-chip assets I am relatively optimistic about. The RWA subnet narrative is the core focus of this round, with solid fundamentals and good potential for capital rotation.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the medium- to long-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment. After a rapid rise from a low position, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for consolidation. The first short-term support is at $10.8, with strong support at $9.6; the first resistance is at $14.2, and if it holds above this level, the next target range is $16 to $18. On the 4-hour chart, price action is beginning to converge and oscillate, forming a bullish continuation consolidation pattern. As long as it does not break below $9.6 effectively, the major bullish trend remains intact; if it breaks down with volume, this upward momentum will enter a deep correction. Overall contract leverage is controllable, without the risk of concentrated long positions liquidation like ZEC.
Market Capital Flow
The core driver of this rally is the RWA institutional narrative. Avalanche's subnet architecture is very suitable for enterprise-customized on-chain asset issuance. Compliant institutions like Paxos have deployed on it, attracting institutional capital inflows. TVL is steadily rising, and DeFi activity within the ecosystem is warming up, making it a potential Layer1 in sector rotation. Compared to SOL, AVAX’s institutional asset tokenization narrative is distinctly differentiated, with capital favoring this enterprise-level landing track.
Fundamental Highlights
Avalanche consensus offers extremely fast transaction confirmation speeds. The subnet architecture is a core advantage, allowing enterprises to build independent subnets that support RWA and institutional asset on-chain integration. The total token supply cap is 720 million, transaction fees are burned, and staking lock-ups continuously reduce circulating supply, giving it deflationary characteristics.Here you go - a few different ways to say it: *1. Natural / Funny-Pain Version:* Stop-loss hit painlessly while I was asleep. Stop playing with ZEC, you just can't beat it. I placed an order at 1381 at midnight, with a stop at 1355, and got stopped out to the exact dollar lol $ZEC *2. Short / X Post Version:* Got stop-lossed in my sleep, pain-free exit. Don't play $ZEC, you can't win against it. Long at 1381 midnight, SL at 1355 - wicked out perfectly haha. *3. Clean / Trading Log Version:* $ZECOn September 29, according to the Hong Kong SAR Government press release, the SAR Government successfully priced the fourth batch of digital green bonds equivalent to about HKD 20 billion, covering HKD, RMB, USD, and EUR, setting a new record for the largest digital bond issuance globally. The bonds were priced on September 28 as follows: HKD 5.5 billion two-year at 3.80%, RMB 7.5 billion five-year at 1.65%, USD 200 million three-year at 5.023%, EUR 450 million four-year at 3.734%; subscription amounts for the four currencies ranged from 1.3 to 11.3 times. This issuance introduced tokenized deposits in HKD bond primary settlement via EnsembleTX, marking the world's first digital bond containing tokenized HKD deposits. CELO rose about 26%, but the perpetual funding rate dropped to -0.119%.
As of 19:59 Beijing time, OKEx spot price was about $0.1151, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $2.09 million; the daily high was $0.12, the low was $0.0892, with a volatility of about 33.8%.
What’s more unusual is the contract side. OKEx hourly statistics show that the open interest nominal value rose from about $429,000 24 hours ago to about $1,206,000, an increase of about 181%; the current perpetual premium is about -0.32%. Price and open interest are rising together, but the contract maintains a discount, indicating that counter-trend positions are rapidly accumulating.
My judgment is that the biggest risk right now is not the price increase, but the squeeze conditions formed by the negative funding rate and new positions. The most common misjudgment is to directly interpret the negative funding rate as a sign of inevitable continued price rise; it may also come from hedging and cannot alone prove that shorts will be liquidated.
Next, watch the $0.12 price level and changes in open interest. If the price breaks above $0.12 and the funding rate remains significantly negative, the short squeeze risk will continue to rise; if the price falls back below $0.10 and open interest remains high, new leverage may instead amplify the pullback.
$CELO Liquidation Map: Downside Risks Outweigh Upside Opportunities
Direction Trigger Level Liquidation Intensity
Downside Longs Break below 79,328 $1.616 billion
Upside Shorts Break above 87,154 $1.288 billion
The liquidation intensity of downside longs is 1.25 times that of upside shorts. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached approximately $534 million, with long liquidations accounting for $431 million, over 80%. Bitcoin long liquidations amounted to $92.2689 million, while shorts were only $28.9328 million. The market is undergoing a concentrated long liquidation.
The altcoin sector is a heavy liquidation zone: about three-quarters of losses come from positions outside Bitcoin, involving Ethereum, altcoins, and crypto exchange gold contracts. This is directly related to profit-taking after previous altcoin price surges and a large influx of traders. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh $2.39B of weekly ETF inflows looks bullish, but the daily trend caught my attention 👀
Flows slid from nearly $1B on Sept 21 to $134M by Sept 25, even as BTC heads toward a monster Q3.
That doesn't kill the rally, but it changes the test.
After a 43%+ quarterly gain, BTC needs fresh capital to keep absorbing profit-taking. The headline is record demand. The real signal is whether that demand stays strong after the easy momentum is gone.This $PUMP is really strong today, a big bullish candle that stunned everyone, rallying over 12 points in 24 hours!
The current price has surged to around 0.00574, heading straight for the previous high.
On the daily chart, it’s flying right along the upper Bollinger Band, EMA shows a bullish alignment, and MACD has a second golden cross with expanding red bars.
Today’s candle has already broken through the previous high around 0.005798; if it can close and hold above this, the sky’s the limit. It’s up nearly 280% in 90 days, showing how aggressively the whales are controlling the market.
Switching to the 15-minute chart, that recent sharp spike was a bit overbought, now consolidating sideways near the 0.005745 resistance.
SAR is far away, the deviation rate is large, so a pullback could happen anytime. Support is first seen at 0.005525; if it holds, the strong consolidation continues.
MACD red bars are flattening, be cautious chasing higher to avoid a spike.
No issues on the daily chart, but the 15-minute is a bit overheated. If you want to get in, wait for a pullback confirmation before making a move.
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $PUMP broke through a 90-day high today, leverage data 📊 long-short ratio is 0.55, the dog whale has been pushing it all along. If tomorrow's data is favorable, the token 💊 will likely break through 0.006 by riding the momentum. It's expected there will be a pullback at the close to let some people get in. The main focus is still on tomorrow's US data. Personally, I am staying out of the market and waiting.$INJ There is a key milestone tomorrow.
This round of Injective Community Buyback will end on September 30.
The INJ submitted by users will be permanently burned after the event ends.
But there is a second layer this time: after the Buyback ends, the Stockdrop will officially open for claiming.
Participants who submit INJ to join the buyback also have a chance to receive tokenized stock rewards.
In other words, this is not a simple buyback.
On one hand, it reduces INJ supply, and on the other, it brings in traditional stock rewards.
The official definition is Community BuyBack + Stockdrop.
The real test point is tomorrow.
If the burn scale and Stockdrop participation both increase, the INJ "income → buyback → burn → RWA reward" closed loop will be more complete.
Entry: $7.35–7.75
Take profit: $8.00 /$8.30 / $8.80 / $9.50 / $10.50
Stop loss: $6.65$UNI short sellers finally see hope for a breakout.
Holding from $9 all the way to $10, watching the price climb higher and higher, shorts really feel miserable. Now that the price has dropped a bit, the first reaction isn’t to buy the dip, but: finally, a breather.😮💨
What shorts fear most is a rally that doesn’t pull back; what they want to see is the price returning near their cost basis. The key now is whether $10 can continue to hold; if the rebound can’t break through, shorts still have a chance to move closer to their cost line; but if it suddenly surges back up, the hard-earned window for a breakout might be gone again.
UNI has tortured us these past few days, and now the mindset is simple: no need for a big drop, just let me break even first. Once I break even, I’ll deal with it, no greed.😂
Where have you all held your shorts to? Let’s chat in the comments.
This is not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile, so please manage your risks.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% After the price experienced a continuous decline, it has rebounded. So the question is, has the correction ended and is it ready to rise? Or is it, once again, a deceptive move?
I lean towards the former. Of course, if it turns into an upward trend, it doesn't necessarily mean it will break the previous high to create a new high; it might just form a lower high, which is hard to say. Naturally, if it can reach a new high, it indicates that the current bull market is indeed strong, surprisingly strong.
Right now, I have a bullish outlook. There are two target levels above: one around 85,000 and another around 86,000. The former should be no problem. There is some resistance around 85,300, but I believe the possibility of breaking through is high. Of course, the specific situation will depend on the price when it gets there. If, unexpectedly, the breakout fails, it would simply mean a further downward correction, for example, falling back below the 82,000 level.
Now, let's focus on the support level. I believe the key support is in the range of [86,600-86,800]. If the price falls back to this area tonight or tomorrow, one can try to go long with a light position. That said, this opportunity might not necessarily appear. In other words, starting from now, the price might head straight to the first target at 85,000, in which case this support range might become irrelevant.
Overall, this round of correction is relatively shallow, which also proves the strength of the bulls. Everything is under the control of the main funds. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 📈 Speak of the devil: The 82,500 support has been confirmed, and Bitcoin directly rebounded by 1.21%
Yesterday we were still discussing the bearish factors landing, but the market couldn't fall further. Today BTC directly gave the answer with the market.
The 24-hour low touched 82,501, the support held, and the current price rebounded to 84,340, an increase of 1.21%.
This candlestick is the best proof that the support is effective 📊
Just opened the market, this rebound is straightforward and decisive 🔥
BTC/USDT
- 💰Current price: 84,340.2｜Today +1.21%
- 📉24h low: 82,501.0｜📈24h high: 84,464.8, precisely hitting the support line
- 📊24h trading volume: 6.061 billion USDT, 71,800 BTC traded
- 📈Period performance: 7 days -2.35%｜30 days +7.04%｜90 days +40.27%
Short-term pullback has not broken the medium-term major trend
Reviewing the candlestick trend:
From the evening of September 28 to early morning of the 29th, the price fluctuated repeatedly between 83,000–83,400, probing multiple times, with the lowest point just stopping near 82,501.
Starting the afternoon of the 29th, volume increased and price rose sharply, with consecutive bullish candles pushing from 83,000 to the intraday high of 84,464.
MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are in a bullish alignment ✅, and the super trend line has shifted from resistance to support (green area in the chart)
This exactly fulfills the market logic we analyzed yesterday:
✅ 82,500 was the high before September 3, old resistance turned into new support, successfully holding the pullback
✅ The previous large drop has completed a round of massive liquidations (140,000 people liquidated), leverage bubble cleared, rebound selling pressure is light
✅ The dense liquidation zone above is concentrated near 85,300, currently less than 1,000 USD away from the target, with potential for a short squeeze later
⚠️ Risk to note: Sell orders above the order book (666.97K) significantly exceed buy orders (285.36K)
There are many profit-taking positions piled up near 84,300, so upward surges still face short-term resistance.
🌙 Key points for future observation
If volume increases and price stabilizes above 84,300, the next target is to challenge the dense liquidation zone at 85,300. Once broken, it may trigger the strongest rally of this round;
If the price hits resistance and falls back, the intraday high of 84,464 will likely become a short-term top, and the market will need to consolidate and digest.
💬 Do you think BTC can surge straight to 85,000 tonight? Share your judgment in the comments below 👇
⚠️ This article is only a market review record; all content does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries huge risks and high volatility; please strictly control your position size and proceed with caution.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 最近ETH的走势仍然容易受到BTC方向影响，但真正值得关注的是：以太坊能否吸引持续的独立资金流入？ 📊 目前重点观察三个信号： 🔵 ETF资金流向 如果ETH相关ETF持续出现净流入，说明机构需求可能正在改善；若资金再次转弱，反弹持续性仍需谨慎观察。 📈 相对强弱 BTC上涨并不代表ETH一定同步扩大涨幅。ETH能否跑赢BTC，是判断市场资金是否开始向ETH轮动的重要参考。 💥 成交量 价格上涨但成交量没有跟上，突破的可靠性有限。若ETH突破 $2,780附近 时同时出现明显放量，短线动能会更值得关注。 📰 市场新闻｜ETF与宏观因素继续影响风险偏好 近期加密市场仍在关注美国宏观数据、ETF资金变化以及美债收益率走势。接下来 PCE通胀数据与非农就业报告 将成为重要观察点，数据结果可能改变市场对美联储利率路径的预期。 与此同时，市场也在关注 霍尔木兹海峡相关局势及能源价格变化。如果地缘与能源因素推动通胀预期升温，可能进一步影响全球风险资产情绪。 🎯 ETH接下来要证明的，不只是“BTC涨了所以ETH涨”。 如果能够看到 ETF资金回流 + ETH相对BTC走强 + 成交量放$SNDK Storage Three Brothers:
Micron sets the direction, Hynix sets the height, SanDisk sets the volatility.
Don't guess before the earnings report, don't chase after the earnings report.
Guidance is more important than performance, ASP is more important than revenue.
Wait for a good opportunity 有突破往上走的趋势！你还相信牛市不会来？ 📊 睡前行情分析 BTC:开83328.40 / 高84465.30 / 低82724.30 / 收84310.80 美元 +1.18% ETH:开2676.53 / 高2738.00 / 低2650.50 / 收2731.13 美元 +2.04% SOL:开118.65 / 高120.71 / 低116.25 / 收120.08 美元 +1.21% BNB:开763.05 / 高773.83 / 低753.72 / 收767.14 美元 +0.54% 🔍 归因拆解 ① 节奏:承接9/28急跌后亚盘早段窄幅修复,午前冲高至全日高点后回踩82700一线,午后二次探底未破前低,尾盘放量反弹收复84300,典型急跌次日"早探午撑尾拉"修复节奏。 ② 分化:ETH领涨主板+2.04%,BTC/SOL基本同步+1.18%/+1.21%,BNB垫底+0.54%;ETH-BTC涨幅差0.86pct,山寨未跟,主板修复尚不充分。 ③ 资金:费率档位中性偏低,BTC 资金费率 0.54bp、ETH 1.00bp、SOL 0.56bp、BNB 0bp,昨日负费$CL gold hedges against US dollar credit, crude oil hedges against Middle East tensions.
One fears interest rate hikes, the other fears ceasefire.
Both are betting on the same thing: this world is becoming increasingly uncontrollable. $XAUT #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $ETH held up again, today the market fluctuated back and forth, a typical large-range oscillation.
Looks like it will retest again; I plan to reduce my position around 2650. This market is acting too erratically, I almost got liquidated just now due to a sudden spike.
Plan: reduce position near 2650, then wait for a rebound to do T and recover the position.
$BTC Bitcoin's movement is similar, the 82500 support has been repeatedly tested but stubbornly unbroken, after a rebound spike touched 84300, it fell back again.
The resistance at 85000 can't be broken, and the support at 82500 hasn't been breached for now, so in the short term it's trapped oscillating back and forth within this range.
This kind of spike market is the most frustrating, triggering stop losses up and down. How do you all think this range will choose a direction?
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC After a series of setbacks, it seemed there was no way out, but the double bottom reveals a bright prospect!
On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a clear W-shaped bottom pattern. Currently, the price has rebounded above 84200 and is attempting to turn the 84000 resistance level into support.
Both bottom points are near 82700-83000, and after testing these lows twice, rebounds occurred, indicating strong support in this area.
The neckline of the W bottom is right around 84000.
However, we should not rush to confirm a breakout yet. The key is to see if the new 1-hour candle can close firmly above 84000 to avoid a false breakout caused by a wick.
The first resistance above is at 85000, which is a strong short-term pressure level.
If the W bottom is confirmed, the theoretical rebound target, calculated from the neckline to the double bottom lows, also points to around 85000.
So the next steps are simple:
If the price can stay above 84000 with consolidation and stabilization, the first target is 85000. Breaking through 85000 will open up more upside space.
But if it falls back below 84000 and closes below it, caution is needed. The breakout may fail, likely leading to a return to range-bound trading or even retesting the right bottom support near 82700.
Currently, 84000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, 85000 is the key resistance above, and 82700-83000 is the core support below. $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $XAUT Gold = hedge against US dollar credit, central banks are buying, retail investors are waiting
Silver = shadow of gold, dragged down by industrial demand, more volatile
$BZ Crude oil = hedge against Middle East situation, whether the strait is open is more important than what OPEC says
The first two bet on whether the currency is rotten, the last one bets on whether there will be a war.
All three are "votes of no confidence," just targeting different objects.ETH近期冲高后没有继续扩大涨幅，价格触及 $2,795附近 后出现回落，目前进入高位横盘整理阶段。短线多头仍有一定支撑，但市场正在等待新的催化剂。 📊 日线技术面 目前ETH日线布林带依旧保持张口状态，价格运行在中上轨区域，整体结构暂时没有明显转弱。 不过，与此前快速上涨阶段相比，近期成交量明显下降，说明追涨资金有所放缓，价格继续向上突破需要新的量能配合。 🟢 下方关键区域：$2,625–$2,650 这个区域近期已经多次出现承接，是短线多头需要守住的位置。如果回踩后能够快速收回，震荡结构仍有机会维持。 🔴 上方压力：$2,780–$2,820 前高附近依然存在较强抛压。若想重新打开上行空间，需要看到 放量突破并站稳压力区，否则行情更可能继续围绕区间反复震荡。 📰 市场新闻｜宏观数据或成为下一催化剂 本周市场重点关注美国 PCE通胀数据与非农就业报告。两项数据可能影响市场对美联储后续利率政策的预期，同时美国国债收益率仍处于高位，风险资产的波动可能继续放大。 因此，ETH当前更值得观察的是：突破是否有成交量确认，以及宏观数据公布后资金是否重新回流。 📌 短线重点： 支撑：$2Oil prices dropped 3% in one day, yet no one in the crypto circle is talking about it.
WTI fell from over $90 to 89.24, and Brent also dropped by 2.6%.
Honestly, this matter has little to do with the crypto world, but it's not completely unrelated either.
When oil prices soften, inflation pressure eases a bit, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut rates. That's the logic.
But don't rush to pat yourself on the back.
Oil price drops could mean demand is weak, or supply has increased. The former signals a recession, the latter is good news. Right now, it's unclear which it is.
So don't just shout "bullish for risk assets" when you see oil prices fall.
I'm leaning towards watching and waiting. What really matters is whether this drop is due to a collapse in demand or a loosening on the supply side.
What do you think?
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $SKHY Charge forward
$MU = The industry's only price periscope (NAND ASP)
Hynix = HBM monopoly premium
SanDisk = Pure NAND high beta bet
The first two make money from technological barriers, the last one makes money from the price increase slope.
When the price increase slows down, it dies first. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Did the treasury companies collectively agree to bulk buy this week? Pharaoh directly says, Strategy, the largest bull, has finally pulled the trigger again, and it's not the only one buying; the treasury sector is coming together to stock up.
Let's look at the leader first. Last week, Strategy spent $142.7 million at an average price of $85,681 to buy 1,665 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 847,700 BTC. While buying coins, the seller also repurchased $150 million in preferred shares, balancing finance and faith.
The juniors haven't been idle either. Last week, Strive bought 1,107 BTC at $85,396 each, bringing its total holdings to 27,462 BTC. French Capital B also joined the party, increasing by 13 BTC, with total holdings reaching 3,538 BTC.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Last week, global listed companies had a net purchase of $239 million, 30.4% more than the previous week. In the frustrating range of $83,000 to $85,000, treasury companies are telling you with real money: "I'll buy when it dips." This is currently the most stable buying force in the market.
Pharaoh sums it up in one sentence: Big players are sweeping up above $83,000, and that's the reason for today's Bitcoin surge! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 尽管传统市场正因10年期美债收益率逼近6%而恐慌于全球流动性被抽干，但BTC却逆势突破84,000美元，展现出明显的高时间级别（HTF）订单流背离；这主要是因为ETF的持续稳定净流入在HTF折价区筑起了坚实的买方流动性壁垒，推动市场在内部存量博弈中实现了流动性通胀。与此同时，BTC不仅彻底粉碎了历史上的“九月魔咒”并完成了月线级别的Mitigation（缓解），而且随着黄金面临下行压力，避险与投机资本正加速向流动性效率更高的加密资产转移，使得100,000美元成为了机构在日线级别FVG上方锁定的终极买方流动性目标（BSL Target）。
一、 今日市场情绪与聪明钱盘点
在 SMC（Smart Money Concepts）的视角下，今天的市场是一场教科书级的“流动性猎杀（Liquidity Hunt）”。
偏见达成情况：
ETH-USDT-SWAP（看涨 Target: 2,724.2000）： 已达标。ETH 完美演绎了 Sweep-to-Reclaim（扫单收回） 模型。在扫荡了前期低点（SSL - Sell-side Liquidity）后，主力资金迅速向上做市$MU Micron's earnings report is not just a report; it's a global inflation thermometer.
SK Hynix sells the ticket to AI entry, $SNDK sells the data warehouse, and Micron sells pricing power.
The logic for all three: the scarcer the computing power, the more expensive they become.📰 【CBOE Plans to Explore New Product Innovations Such as Tokenized Options Contracts】
According to BlockBeats, on September 29, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) signed an exclusive licensing agreement extension with S&P Dow Jones Indices for 25 years, valid until 2051. CBOE stated that it may collaborate with S&P Dow Jones Indices to explore innovations in new products such as tokenized options contracts.
The traditional options giant is beginning to explore on-chain derivatives, which has a bit of a RWA 2.0 vibe. It's still early for real implementation, but airdrops and ecosystem positioning can be anticipated. Don't chase high-level concepts; watch who achieves real trading volume first. Will you be paying attention to on-chain options?
👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $DOGE The path of those 8.42 million DAI in COMP has been clarified; the foundation is buying from itself, with Humpy pushing behind the scenes. The price being pulled to 24.55 is just for retail investors to see. On the Solana side, the 160 million trading volume is all memes messing around, the volume is artificially high. The overall market cap is falling but trading volume is rising, indicating someone is offloading.
Just closed the security booth window, the wind is picking up outside.
CRV current price is 0.3995, the market looks very bad. The MACD death cross is confirmed, RSI is turning down from the top, KD is stagnating at a high level; these three signals combined mean a short-term pullback is coming. The CoinGlass liquidation map is even more direct, with a huge amount of long liquidations stacked near 0.40. Once it breaks below this level, a chain liquidation will push the price down.
In terms of operation, do not chase longs. Short position idea: enter between 0.3995 and 0.402, take profit first target at 0.388, second target at 0.375. Stop loss at 0.408; if broken, admit the mistake and exit. Avoid longs for now, wait until liquidations clear before reconsidering.
In this market, preserving principal is stronger than anything.
$CRV
#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点
@OKX星球 $ETH Ether is once again testing the 2752 resistance level on the 4-hour chart. If it can't break through tonight, it will probably have to test the support at 2630 below again.
The short-term market has been consolidating, but recently altcoins have been more volatile, like Aave and ZEC—one crashed, the other surged.
Bitcoin and Ether have been in a sideways phase; let's see what the US stock market opening says tonight #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC
BTC = digital gold, betting on the US ledger
ETH = digital bonds, earning on-chain rent
$ZEC = digital cash, betting on privacy legalization
The first two can be for retirement, the third is only for betting.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%