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When I first heard people talking about this thing, I took it as a joke
A colleague said $BTC could make a comeback, I even advised him not to dream
Later I couldn't resist and tried with a few hundred bucks
Right after buying, it dropped, dropped so much I couldn't even eat
Watching the market every day, distracted at work, got stared down by the boss several times
Once there was a big plunge at midnight, I panicked and sold at the bottom
The next day it bounced back, I was so mad I kept slapping my thigh
That period made me realize, this game is all about mindset
Don't borrow money, don't go all in, don't trust anyone shouting trade calls
All those hundredfold or thousandfold gains, just listen and move on
Putting real money in, the one who can't sleep is yourself
Later I only kept some $ETH, treated the drops as savings
When it rises, I don't chase, afraid of buying at the peak again
For $SOL's kind of wild jumps, I only dare to watch
If I really buy, it's a small position, so losing it doesn't hurt
Now I rarely open the app, just glance occasionally
Less trading means less chance to lose
Look less at screenshots in the group, listen less to trade calls
Living steadily is better than any K-line chart#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 At one in the morning, the faint glow of the screen reflects on my face.
BTC 83018, ETH 2675, SOL 117. Fully invested long positions, 100x leverage.
I just got liquidated on a position yesterday, feeling unwilling to give up. Today, the last day of September, I decide to trust the light once more.
They say the crypto world is a casino, so right now I’m like someone who’s been squatting in a Macau casino for three days, betting my underwear on "the dealer being in a good mood today."
The SEC just issued an "innovation exemption," allowing tokenized US stocks to be traded on public blockchains—this is a historic compliance breakthrough. The CFTC also submitted crypto regulatory rules to the White House. Although the "Clarity Act" was rejected in the Senate, which is short-term bearish, the regulatory framework is taking shape.
To translate: the big players are still arguing, but the candy is already being unwrapped.
So I’ve decided, on the last day of September, one final shiver.
100x leverage, fully long, take profit kept in my heart, stop loss left to fate.
If it pumps tonight, tomorrow I’ll be the "short-term god" in my friend circle, with a screenshot of profits and a caption saying "Perfect September close."
If it keeps falling tonight, then I’ll just consider it tuition paid to the market. Except this tuition, I’ve paid three times already.
BTC, ETH, SOL, I don’t care about your macro or ETF stuff.
I have just one sentence: September 30th, give me some face, pump one candle.
Just one, a big green candle.
I still have to work tomorrow. $BTC $ETH $SOL 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
$BTC provides direction. $ETH measures broader participation, while $ZEC gauges risk appetite.
The sharper lens is price + volume + OI moving together.
$BTC holds + $ETH/$ZEC confirm → 🚀 Momentum
$BTC holds + $ETH/$ZEC diverge → ⚠️ Selective Strength
Breadth determines the quality of the move. 🔥
#DailyOrbit Lately, $OKB has been catching my attention. On September 23, OKB briefly broke above $125, only to pull back toward $116 by September 28. Meanwhile, every time X Layer activity picks up, the market starts talking about another OKB breakout. 😂 But here's the interesting part: ecosystem growth and token price appreciation don't always happen at the same time. More activity on X Layer could strengthen the long-term narrative, but the market still needs to see whether that growth translates into s$LINK — $14.92
Up 8% while most of the top 50 closed lower. Turnover hit $1.39B — 3.55x its 30-day median.
New 2026 high of $15.48. Up 100%+ from June lows below $7.
Catalyst: CCIP 2.0 launched Sept 28, adding institutional-grade cross-chain verifiers. 24-hour volume jumped 225% to $1.41B.
One catch: non-empty wallets dipped to 912K from recent peaks small holders taking profit into strength. But price keeps climbing, meaning larger buyers are absorbing.
$LINK
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek $BTC $ETH $SOL
Pullback day, same levels in focus. 👀
$BTC around $84.3K
Rejected at $87.4K → $83.9K first support → $80K is the key breakdown level.
$ETH around $2.66K
Lost $2.70K → $2.60K is the floor → $2.77K needs to be reclaimed.
$SOL around $114
Below $117 → $110 is the key line → $120 comes back into play only after $117 is reclaimed.
Weekly structure remains green, while the daily chart is cooling.
Reclaim first. Don’t fight $80K until it actually breaks.
#DailyOrbit After enduring so many days, the long-awaited big surge has finally arrived!
Holding 0.501 ETH long position, the opening average price was 2686.31, and now the mark price has risen above 2739.09. The account floating profit is 26.4U, with a return rate soaring directly to 196.22%. Seeing this bright green, the stone in my heart has finally dropped.
Recalling the past few days of the market's repeated torment, with both long and short positions exploding, my mindset was pulled to the limit again and again. The days of holding the position were full of agony; several times, looking at the floating loss, I almost wanted to cut losses and leave. Fortunately, I ultimately held onto my judgment and did not fall before dawn.
Now, the market has finally rewarded patience. Keep holding, steady the mindset, this time, I am the best! #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $WLD surged from around 0.43 a few days ago
Peaked at $0.5887, now back to $0.489.
In just two days, it has retraced nearly 17% from the high.
But this time, unlike before, World’s product line is expanding into financial scenarios.
World Money has further integrated stablecoins, transfers, trading, and World ID. World is trying to move from purely "real-person identity verification" into payments and financial accounts.
So after failing to break through 0.55, short-term chasing is no long $SNDK rebound is all an illusion; the main trend is bearish.
There have been countless small rebounds along the way.
Many people are eager to enter and bottom-fish, thinking it has dropped a lot and will soon reverse.
With US Treasury yields remaining high and a high-interest-rate environment, risk assets find it hard to sustain a strong bullish trend.
Every rebound is not a bottom but a better entry point for the bears.
The hardest part of trend trading is not choosing the right direction but holding on.
But in a high-leverage market, you can never overestimate your position.
Tomorrow's PCE data is the watershed.
If inflation misses expectations, a rapid rebound will instantly wipe out most of the floating profits.
Floating profits are just numbers on paper; only when realized do you truly have them in hand $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 On the surface, it looks lively, but underneath it feels like walking on thin ice. This sense of disconnection is more alarming than a simple pullback. Is liveliness really the same as support? On September 28th, I closed all my positions. It wasn’t a sudden decision; after reviewing the weekend’s market, I found a significant risk point hidden in the next two to four weeks. About two hours after sending the notice, I started executing. Long-term, I remain optimistic, but in the short to medium term, I’m stepping back to give myself a week off. The market adjustment this week is unlikely to end soon. I might reopen automatic orders next Monday, but that’s another story. Many people ask where this correction will bottom out. Prepare yourself mentally: keep BTC 75000 in your sights. The extreme low I mentioned earlier is around 70950. If you plan to enter during or after this correction, your liquidation price must be set lower than 70950. Note, I’m not saying to bottom fish at 70950, but to prevent being stopped out by a price spike down to that level. The same applies to ETH; don’t just watch it move with the market now. When the sharp drop hits, highly leveraged positions will suffer before spot positions. What is the market trading now? It’s actually trading "the expectation of rate cuts remains, but risk appetite has quietly become fragile." Non-farm payrolls and PCE data are coming this week; before the data lands, sentiment is already moving ahead. On the surface, altcoins still have local hotspots, and social platforms are not short of trade calls, but the depth of support in the order book is thinning. At times like this, the liveliness is for outsiders to see; the structure is what insiders need to watch. The bullish path is still there: ifGood evening brothers, the market just stiffened slightly, and Ethereum directly touched the second short position. If you don't have long positions during tonight's rally, don't chase it. Either wait for a pullback to enter or wait for BTC to strongly break above 85k and then pull back without falling below to take right-side longs. Otherwise, if you get tricked by manipulative whales, it won't be good. They can fool my body but not my money!
$BTC Tonight, wait for a pullback to 83600 for light long positions, add positions near 82600-81000, stop loss at 80000. On the upside, light shorts at 85000, add near 86000-87200, stop loss at 88000. #BTC trend analysis
$ETH Tonight, wait for a pullback to 2700 for light longs, add near 2655-2610, stop loss at 2590. On the upside, light shorts at 2775, add near 2805-2860, stop loss at 2830. #ETH trend analysis
$BNB Tonight, only if it closes above 767 will it rebound; otherwise, if it can't rise, wait for a pullback near 755 for light longs, add near 745-735, stop loss at 730. On the upside, light shorts at 780, add near 795-806, stop loss at 815. #BNB trend
$SOL Tonight, wait for a pullback to 119 for light longs, add near 116.2-113, stop loss at 111.5. On the upside, light shorts at 123, add near 125-128.5, stop loss at 130. #solana 🔥 X Layer is getting more and more lively, so why hasn’t $OKB really taken off yet?
Lately, I’ve been watching $OKB with mixed feelings.
On September 23, $OKB briefly pushed above $125, but by September 28, it had pulled back toward $116.
Every time X Layer gets some activity, people start shouting, “This time $OKB is going to fly!” 😂
But look at the chart… it’s still grinding.
I think a lot of people have the order of things reversed.#DailyOrbit $NEAR — $4.70
Down 7.9% in 24 hours after losing the 4.60**.
The selloff wiped over $20M in long liquidations. Open interest dropped 12.3% to $1.4B — position unwinds, not new shorts.
What's driving the pullback:
• Profit-taking after a 200%+ August surge and a weekly gain of nearly 80%
• RSI at 70.96 — deep overbought territory, now cooling
• Broader market weakness as $BTC tests $83K #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh Every time $ZEC rebounds, my mindset rides a roller coaster. Just as I finally saw a glimmer of hope near the cost line, this rebound made me hesitate: Should I cut my losses and exit? 📌 My short position opening price: $800 ⏳. I've already held the highest resistance level for over a month ⚠️: $1,800, which is also my forced liquidation price. This month has been really tough—the biggest fear is a sudden rapid surge. Facing this situation now, the most important thing isn't to be led by emotions, but to recalculate your risk: how much room is left before forced liquidation, how much volatility you can tolerate, and whether this position has already exceeded your risk tolerance. Brothers, when you encounter positions under pressure for a long time, would you choose to keep observing or reduce risk first? $ZEC #ZEC #DailyOrbit #CryptoThe first time I got into this was because a colleague kept talking about it every day
He said $BTC could turn around, and I took it as a joke
Later, I secretly bought two hundred bucks myself
After buying, it dropped, dropped so much I started doubting life
Those days, I couldn't enjoy meals, always wanting to open the app to check
When it rose a bit, I felt elated; when it fell a bit, I panicked
One night there was a big crash, I clumsily sold off
The next day it bounced back, I almost smashed my phone
Slowly I understood, this thing is all about mindset
Don't borrow money, don't go all in, don't trust teachers shouting trade calls
Now I just keep some $ETH
When it drops, I treat it as saving; when it rises, I don't chase
For $SOL with its big ups and downs, I only watch
If I really buy, it's a small position, so losing doesn't hurt
Look less at groups, less at screenshots, look more at your own pocket
Living steadily is better than anything else#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Long and Short Crowding List
$SOON positive rate is relatively high, long side paying higher costs: current rate +0.0348%, historical 88th percentile (100 settlements); price up 6.11%.
$SNDK positive rate is relatively high, long side paying higher costs: current rate +0.0127%, historical 87th percentile (100 settlements); price up 0.29%.
$XRP price weakening, long side paying higher costs: current rate +0.0100%, historical 100th percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.20%.I suddenly realized that focusing on just one direction is the highest wisdom
In this round of decline, the $ZEC and $UNI I was previously stuck in
All unrealized losses have been fully recovered, but the capital size has not increased
The reason is that I opened long positions on TRX and HYPE to bet on a rebound
Now both coins are fully stuck, it's really hard to describe
If you only trade in one direction, stop trading when there is no suitable opportunity
Or add to the short positions on ZEC and UNI
My account assets should be steadily increasing now
Going long at a high level is essentially trying to have one last game with the manipulative whales
To earn the last penny
Usually, it doesn't end well
ZEC has broken below $1400 for the third time today
As strong as it was before, it is now equally weak
The $993 short position is not without a chance to break even
I just hope that the long positions I hold now
Don't lose too much when I break even on ZEC
Otherwise, after holding on for so long and finally breaking even
I would be forced to fill into these long positions again
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 🔥 BTC, ETH, SOL, the bears are starting to feel a bit awkward
🔴 Short-term risk
After this round of decline, the market did not continue to weaken rapidly; instead, it showed repeated support. Bears have continuously tested key levels but failed to break them effectively, indicating that buying pressure below is strengthening. However, "not falling further" ≠ an immediate reversal; if key support is lost, short-term pressure may be released again.
🟡 Key observations
For BTC, focus on 82.5K–83K; if held, watch 84K, and further monitor resistance at 85K; if broken down, re-examine around 82K.
For ETH, watch the 2.6K level; whether it can reclaim 2.7K is an important signal to judge short-term strength.
For SOL, focus on around $120; holding and breaking out with volume makes it easier to confirm capital flowing back into high-elasticity assets.
🟢 Opportunity observations
The most important thing now is not to guess "whether it will rise or fall," but to wait for the market to give its own answer. Continuous probes without breaking, increased volume, key resistance breakouts with retests and confirmations are true signals that the bulls are taking over.
📌 Key points:
Not falling further ≠ immediate rise
Breakout confirmation > subjective judgment
No signal, no bet.
When the market offers no opportunity, staying out is also a choice.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 [Old Leek Observation]
$MAV Unlock Risk Alert
On October 1st, MaverickProtocol will unlock about 36.4 million MAV tokens, including 30 million for investors and 6.35 million for advisors. Based on the current circulating supply of approximately 1.173 billion tokens, this new supply accounts for about 3.1% of the circulation, which is a considerable pressure.
However, the price is still around $0.012, having rebounded from about $0.010 a few days ago but then started to decline again. Brothers, look at the screenshot.
After grinding for more than half a month, this month's profit and loss calendar has finally started to show "more red than green." The days of consecutive heavy losses (-1.5k, -821, -871) are still vivid in my mind, but in the past few days, I've slowly filled the gap by short selling. Especially today, looking at ONE's trend, all hopes of breaking even are pinned on this trade!
📊 Market Analysis: ONE
The price is now stuck around 0.001019, with a 24-hour increase of 53.87% and a turnover rate as high as 151.54%. This volume is terrifying. The upper resistance at 0.001145 is today's high and a short-term strong resistance level. If it gets rejected and falls back here, this short position will be solid.
But be cautious, this coin has a correlation of 0.83 with BTC. If the market suddenly pumps, it will easily follow suit.
Brothers, is anyone still shorting now? Drop your coordinates in the comments, let's hold through this wave together! #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC $ETH crashed again📉📉
Still a fake breakout to trap bulls~🤡
Bitcoin has been sharply volatile since 11 AM for 10 hours, but in the evening, three hourly candles dropped back to pre-liberation levels, another fake breakout~
Bitcoin still hasn't broken above the previous four-hour consolidation zone🪤🪤
Spot is flowing out, open interest hasn't increased, yet the price is rising within a range, clearly just sweeping liquidity🤡
So it's the same as before, as I said last time, until it truly breaks below 82,000 or strongly breaks above 85,000, it will remain in consolidation and oscillation
One day left to close the monthly candle, the real move should come by next month's National Day~
Last year's October 11 move was also deeply impressive😱
Trade cautiously next month to guard against extreme moves!🪤🪤
Yi Lihua's analysis also suggests a bull trap, he believes the daily level still needs a pullback
US Treasury yields repeatedly hit new highs
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
Fed rate hikes are certain, what else is there to say, if it should fall, it will fall~
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🔷 California banned memecoins for government employees
• Governor Newsom signed a law banning memecoins for government employees
• "No official should profit from their position through cryptocurrency"
• Context: the Trump family launched $TRUMP, MELANIA, WLFI
• Nansen: ~1 million people lost $3.8B on TRUMP (2/3 of buyers)
• Chuck Schumer proposed an anti-corruption bureau
🧠 Political response to Trump's memecoins. $3.8B losses, 1 million affected. But the ban applies only to California government employees Position check-in✨
ICP's bullish rally has realized substantial floating profits, SUI holds a small profit position waiting, UNI is still deeply trapped and struggling.
The hardest part of trading contracts is not catching a big surge, but staying calm in the face of profits and losses and managing position risk well.Brothers, I’m the one who went to the boiler room yesterday to do hard labor and shovel ash to top up the margin,
Yesterday, I was about to get liquidated, so I worked hard shoveling slag, which exhausted me, and I accidentally fell asleep. When I woke up, I thought I was liquidated, but who knew I was actually in profit? Today, my core long position broke even, I closed the position and ran, but I left a small hidden position and topped up some margin. The liquidation price is 0.015,
I’m waiting for the big players to dump so I can finally sleep peacefully, $BTC $CORE BTC rebounds to 83000, ETH and SOL stop falling: signs of recovery appear, but a key step for reversal is still missing
Yesterday BTC was still fluctuating around 85200, then suddenly dropped to 82556; ETH fell from 2720 all the way down to 2635; SOL was even worse, surging near 125 before directly retreating to 116.37. The drop was severe, but today the 15-minute MACD of all three coins shows signs of recovery.
The problem is, the price hasn't truly broken through short-term resistance yet. I don't want to pay the tuition fee of calling a reversal just because of a couple of bullish candles.
BTC's MA20 is at 83189, and the current price is still below it. The plan is to wait for it to firmly stand above 83200, then watch 83690. If 82550 is lost again, the 82000 level below will likely face a test.
ETH's MA20 is at 2671, MA10 at 2662. Although it has rebounded, until 2672 is taken, it should be considered just a technical recovery. After breaking through, watch 2698; if it falls below 2635, continue to observe 2600.
SOL is currently the weakest, with MA20 at 117.78, and the price hasn't even stood above this moving average. First, see if 118 can be reclaimed; only consider adding longs after breaking 119.5; if 116.37 is lost again, continue to wait.
Open interest in the futures market is declining, and the funding rate has turned negative, indicating that leveraged traders remain cautious. I still want to find opportunities to go long, but I won't rush in just because of one rebound candle. Today, I'll wait for BTC to break through 83200 and see if this rebound has any momentum.📉 $DASH Market Update｜Stay Calm and Patient
$DASH is currently pulling back, and my position is under some pressure.
🎯 Entry Price: $65.93
📍 Current Price: $59.90
📉 Position P&L: -19.99%
🔑 $58.89 is a key level I am closely watching.
If it breaks below this level, downward pressure may increase further; if it holds strong, buyers might get a chance for a rebound recovery.
No emotional decisions.
I will wait for price confirmation before making the next move.
💬 What would you do? Hold on or reduce risk?
#DASH #OKXTraderVoices #MicronEarningsAhead #DailyOrbit
DYOR | NFA$BTC The focus of US-Iran negotiations has shifted. Previously, it was a deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz; now it has escalated to Iran's nuclear program and US sanctions arrangements. Qatar is mediating in the middle.
Some US officials hinted that Trump is willing to ease some sanctions and allow Iran to use part of its frozen assets if there is progress on the nuclear program. But Trump later denied this. Iran also denied reports of possible adjustments to uranium enrichment. The two sides haven't even agreed on exchanging conditions or the sequence of actions.
Once the news broke, oil prices, which had risen over 4%, quickly gave back gains. The market is very sensitive to negotiation news, causing oil prices to fluctuate back and forth.
So, why is the heavens so against me? Every time I buy, I'm stuck; every time I sell, it flies. 😂😂😂🌙 ZEC dropped 9% in one day, let's talk about who's losing money on this fake breakout during the night session
ZEC plunged 9 points overnight, from 1595 down to 1388. Riding the rollercoaster of this privacy coin, let's thoroughly review the night session.
$ZEC near 1388, down 9.28%, definitely the main character today. A few days ago, it broke above the 1500 to 1560 range with volume, volume and price rising together looking like a real breakout, but it never touched the 1600 round number. A big bearish candle smashed it back below the breakout platform. This is a classic fake breakout—momentum traders rushed in at the breakout, only to find the selling pressure above was too strong, causing a heavy sell-off all the way down. Now back at 1388, 1350 is the next support, and if that breaks, look at 1300. Usually after a fake breakout, there's another wave of selling before the bottom is found, so don't rush to catch the falling knife.
$BTC near 83454, slightly up 0.1%, has been sideways for four days. Despite ZEC's sharp drop, BTC didn't follow, indicating the market still has resilience—continuous net inflows into ETFs are supporting the bottom, with 83500 as a short-term critical level. This sideways movement will likely continue until the non-farm payrolls release on Wednesday.
$ENA near 0.252, down 2.56%, after rising 20% in the past two days, it gave back some gains today. A normal pullback, the yield logic remains unchanged. 0.25 is being repeatedly tested, 0.22 is the entry point if it holds, so don't chase in the middle.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Fake breakouts hurt the most; those chasing highs are paying a steep tuition. It's better to wait until ZEC fully bottoms before considering a move.Today, the market has entered a cooling phase, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all experiencing varying degrees of decline, but the weekly chart structure remains relatively strong. In the short term, the focus remains on whether key levels can be recovered. 🟠 $BTC|Around $84.3K • $87.4K: Previous high resistance, rebound blocked again • $83.9K: First support level • $80K: Key structural line; a real break would mean further risk expansion 🔵 $ETH|Around $2.66K • Below $2.70K • $2.60K: Key short-term support • $2.77K: Only after regaining above the rebound structure can further repair 🟣 $SOL|Around $114 • Still below $117 • $110: Key defense level • Only if $117 is reclaimed will $120 become a market focus 📊 area The long-term is strong, short-term cooling. The most important thing now is not to guess the bottom, but to observe whether the price can reclaim the key level. Reclaim first, then confirm. Before $80K is truly broken, don't assume it's a breach #DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoAt first, I heard people talking about this thing in a group chat.
At that time, I thought it was too virtual, similar to game coins.
Later, feeling curious, I spent a few hundred yuan to buy some $BTC.
After buying, the price dropped; after it dropped, I cursed; after cursing, I secretly checked again.
Once, there was a pump late at night, and I was so excited I almost threw my phone.
But the next day when I woke up, all the profits were gone.
During that period, I checked the market every day and couldn't focus at work.
My wife asked if I was obsessed, and I said I was researching something new.
Actually, I knew it myself—it was just greed.
Later, I learned my lesson, only using spare money and avoiding leverage.
I also don't believe in guaranteed profits; anyone shouting trade signals is just a joke to me.
I held $ETH longer; when it dropped, I treated it as saving.
When it rose, I didn't chase, afraid of buying at the peak.
For $SOL, which is very volatile, I only dare to watch.
If I really trade it, it's with a small position, so losing doesn't hurt.
Now I rarely watch the market; I only open it occasionally when I remember.
I found that less trading actually makes it harder to lose.
This industry has many opportunities and many traps; mindset is more important than skills.
Don't throw in your meal money, and don't borrow money to gamble.
Living steadily is better than any K-line chart.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 🔥Big Brother Maji's recurring script: Bulls increase their positions again📈
Hello everyone, I am your old friend.
Big Brother Maji has made a move again. This time he continues to add more, raising his $ETH position to 36,000 coins, with a total value of about $96.23 million, just one step away from the 100 million mark. The average opening price is 2670, liquidation line at 2581, currently a floating loss of 170,000, which is not a big hit for him.
What really makes people sweat is $HYPE: 226,000 long positions, floating loss of 1.18 million, liquidation price at 73.05, very close to the current price, the risk is almost touching.
Those who know him well understand that Big Brother Maji is a staunch bull, basically never shorts. The direction may not be wrong, but the problem often lies in the heavy position size. The market seems to be joking with him: after being stopped out, the market rebounds; once he adds positions, it encounters a dump, as if the elevator always goes to the wrong floor.
Some say he is stubborn, others think he has deep pockets and can afford to play. From another perspective, in a market full of harvesting, being able to consistently stay bullish and keep betting on a bull market is itself a kind of faith.
To sum up: faith can be strong, but positions cannot be too full. Even if you pick the right direction, you have to survive until the rebound. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $RENDER - Soon… +218%🚀
I’m building a swing position inside the triangle and expecting a breakout to the upside toward 5.515$ in the medium term!
I’m building my entry zone between 1.940$ - 1.380$
The stop-loss is placed below the weekly order block that previously worked with liquidity at 1.200$
$RENDER
Dyor
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#USTreasuryYieldHigh In just two days, BTC's September monthly moving average will officially close. After a quick review, it turns out that although the month was turbulent, the results were not as weak as expected. 📊 BTC performance in September: • Opening at the beginning of the month: $78,542 • Current price: about $83,244 • Monthly gain: about +6% • Monthly high: $87,374 • Monthly low: $74,896 • Maximum volatility range: about $12,000 More notably, this month was not exactly calm. War risks, changes in interest rate policy, macro data disturbances, and a noticeable single-day pullback in gold have put considerable pressure on the market. However, BTC's monthly moving average has remained relatively strong. 🧐 Looking a bit longer: July: +7% August: +25% September: +6% There was almost no truly long break in the third quarter. Especially September, which was clearly harder than the previous two months, with prices fluctuating within a range for a long time and market sentiment repeatedly tugging. But one thing is always worth noting: before the trend truly changes, the volatility itself does not mean the trend is over. 📅 Next is October. The crypto market has long been called an "uptober," and this October coincided with an important macro data window: ⚡ PCE data to be released ⚡, nonfarm payrolls to follow ⚡, macro expectations may bring greater short-term volatility, so the upcoming holiday may not be as expectedNaked K trading difficulty: trend-following pullback < oscillating high sell low buy < one-sided sentiment continuation < turning point trend initiation.
The core of trend-following pullback orders lies in the word "wait": wait for the structure confirmation to remain intact, wait for the pullback, wait for the position. The difficulty is not high, suitable for senior players.
The core of oscillating high sell low buy lies in the word "trust": once it is determined that the market is in an oscillating structure, trust early and sell high, buy low; if a stop-loss order appears, no more orders are placed, as a stop-loss order means the oscillating market is likely to end.
The core of one-sided sentiment continuation orders lies in the word "courage": it requires sufficient sensitivity to capital sentiment, and timely follow-up once it is determined that the market will move one-sidedly; if there is floating profit and then the K-line closes with a large shadowed bearish or bullish candle, timely profit-taking is sufficient.
The most difficult for Naked K is the turning point trend initiation: this is not the common perception of bottom fishing or top picking, but entering the order simultaneously with the trend initiation, with the entry position being when the butterfly flaps its wings for the first time, and the profit win rate is very high, not holding on for profit.
In the 24-hour trading market, energetic and mature Naked K traders will skillfully apply these four operation modes, using whichever mode corresponds to the market structure; the downside is it can be exhausting, so trading frequency will decrease over time. Naked K traders balancing life and trading will do at most two or even one mode;
Also, consider which mode has the lowest overall risk for the trading target and use that mode to respond.🔥 BTC, ETH, and SOL are not dropping, putting bears in an awkward position
🔴 Short-term selling pressure weakens
After consecutive declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL, support is emerging at lower levels. Each downward test is quickly recovered, indicating that short-term selling pressure has not expanded further for now. However, this is only a sign of a halt in the decline and cannot be directly equated with a trend reversal.
🟡 Key levels determine the next move
Focus on BTC at 84K–85K, ETH at 2.7K, and SOL at 120. If prices can reclaim these levels with increased volume, short-term sentiment may improve further; conversely, if these key supports fail again, the weak structure may persist.
🟢 Don’t stubbornly fight the market
The most common mistake is to hold indefinitely when the bearish direction seems temporarily correct. If the market doesn’t fall, it’s time to reassess rather than keep adding positions to lower the cost basis. Especially with PCE and non-farm payroll data coming this week, volatility could increase.
📌 **Key point:** Not dropping ≠ immediately rising, but continuing to heavily short when prices aren’t falling is equally risky. **Control your position first, then wait for a breakout or breakdown confirmation.** The direction can be wrong, but position size must not get out of control.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% BTC current price 83030, the market is extremely fragile. MACD shows a bearish divergence with the gap opening downward, and the price has lost support from the short-term moving average. The liquidation map is even clearer: a large number of long positions are stacked between 83000 and 83500, and there is a very high probability that the main force will push down with a wick to induce liquidations and absorb this liquidity. Currently, this is a critical point where resistance is under pressure and support is loosening; the bullish momentum is visibly fading, so don't have illusions about a rebound.
The barrier gate downstairs lifted and then dropped again, cars coming in and out one after another. I leaned back in my chair, glanced at the monitor screen, and casually refilled the water in my thermos.
Bears dominate; the strategy is to short on rebounds. Entry zone is set between 83500 and 83800; wait for a weak pullback to enter. The first take-profit target is 81000; if broken, directly target 79500. Place stop loss above 84500; if it holds above here, it means the wick-down logic failed, so exit immediately and don't hold the position. Do not chase shorts near the current price, nor bottom-fish; wait for a pullback to provide an entry point. Unless the long positions around 83,000 are cleared, bulls should not talk about a reversal.
$BTC
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Planet $ZEC $XAG $BTC
Every time ZEC surges explosively, the market knows that ZEC's price is excessively overvalued, and everyone repeatedly shorts it. I also really dislike this ZEC. Within a month, I shorted ZEC over a hundred times, losing a lot of principal and time. When I finally realized that wasting time and principal on this trash coin ZEC is completely worthless and that its abnormal spikes negatively affect my mindset, I came to understand that once I stopped obsessing over shorting ZEC, it had already been shorted by me. No matter how much it will fall, in my dispassionate view, it is already worthless #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% The numbers on the monitor look good, but what I want to see is the perfusion pressure — last week, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin funds was about $2.386 billion, the strongest single-week flow since last October, with a cumulative total of about $2.98 billion over seven consecutive trading days. This is a sign of sinus rhythm recovery, not a successful heart transplant. What really alerts me is the slope of the curve: the peak of about $999 million on September 21 dropped to only $134 million by the 25th, an 86% decline in four days. This is a typical precursor to a sudden drop in cardiac output — the large vessels are still pulsating, but peripheral perfusion has already started to cool down. The approximately 43.5% increase in Q3, second only to the 2017 cycle, is equivalent to a long-ischemic myocardium suddenly being forcibly reperfused, which most easily induces reperfusion arrhythmia. ETF demand is like an extracorporeal circulation machine, able to maintain blood pressure but unable to treat the contractility of the native myocardium. The current issue is not whether it can hold on, but how many anastomoses this vascular bridge can maintain patency for. #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh 🔥 BTC, ETH, SOL, the bears are starting to get awkward
🔴 Short-term bearish pressure is weakening
After consecutive declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL, prices have begun to find support. Every downward test has met with buying, making it less cost-effective for bears to continue adding positions. However, this does not mean the trend has reversed; it only indicates that the short-term decline is not currently expanding.
🟡 The key is whether a reversal can occur
If BTC can reclaim 84K–85K, ETH recovers 2.7K, and SOL holds 120 with increased volume, short-term sentiment may further improve. Conversely, if key supports fail again, bears could regain control.
🟢 Trading rhythm
The biggest mistake now is "just holding onto short positions because the bearish call was right." If the market doesn’t fall, it’s time to reassess rather than stubbornly hold. Especially with data week approaching, volatility could increase at any time.
📌 **Key point:** Just because it’s not falling doesn’t mean it will immediately rise; but continuing to heavily short when it’s not falling is equally risky. Control your position size first and wait for BTC, ETH, and SOL to give a true breakout or breakdown signal.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Micron's earnings report tomorrow night could determine the next phase of the AI semiconductor market!
Today, AI semiconductors started showing a clear rebound. This timing is critical; the real big test comes tomorrow night — Micron $MU earnings report.
Micron has already risen over 280% this year. This cycle is no longer an ordinary memory cycle but a super cycle driven by HBM + AI data center demand combined with rising memory prices.
The three most important things in the earnings report:
HBM demand, DRAM prices, and next quarter guidance.
As long as these three continue to exceed expectations, it means AI capital expenditure has not noticeably cooled down yet.
Micron's earnings report and SanDisk $SNDK also need to be closely watched.
MU mainly focuses on HBM/DRAM, while SanDisk leans more towards NAND + enterprise SSDs. AI data centers not only need GPUs and HBM, but the massive data generated from training and inference ultimately requires storage. (Sun Ge's phrase "storage is always in shortage" still holds true and its value is rising! 😂)
On the charts, MU's daily line started to oscillate and adjust after touching the upper resistance zone of 1100-1130, with short-term support at 1000-1030.
SanDisk $SNDK shows even greater volatility, having pulled back after encountering resistance above the 1900 super resistance zone on the daily chart. Short-term support is at 1610-1660.
After Micron's earnings report tomorrow night, still focus on whether funds are ready for the next round of expansion. Capital expansion presents opportunities for the next wave in AI infrastructure stocks like $MRVL, which rebounded strongly today!The earliest time I bought coins was because I was envious seeing others make money.
I didn't understand anything and just rushed into $BTC.
After buying, it dropped, and I was still scrolling my phone late at night because of the drop.
Watching while eating, sneaking peeks at work, like I was obsessed.
Later I realized, it wasn't the coin's fault, I was just too impatient.
I held $ETH, wanted to run when it rose a bit, and panicked more when it dropped a bit.
Couldn't hold on, sold and then regretted it, purely my own turmoil.
Later I tried $SOL, it was so fast it made my scalp tingle.
It would pump up in minutes, then crash down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don't touch it.
Now I hardly check groups.
I treat the trade calls like comedy.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it's all traps.
I've seen people get wildly arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss; as long as I can sleep well.
Don't mistake luck for skill.
Don't treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant; I've long since accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Leverage Cleanup: Who's Dumping, Who's Catching?
$463 million liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $370 million. Shorts liquidated over the weekend, longs on Monday—no bad news, just too much leverage squeezed.
70% deleveraging, 30% macro pressure.
BTC surged to $87,381 then dropped back to $83,000 the next day. The trigger isn't in crypto: the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.11%, the highest since 2007. Risk-free yields soared, draining zero-coupon assets. Non-farm payrolls and PCE data loom overhead, rate hike expectations rise, raising long position costs.
But the money hasn't fled.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling $2.98 billion last week—the strongest in nearly a year. Price falls, ETFs are buying—the ones dumping are leveraged funds, not long-term holders.
On-chain data: 81% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in the past 6 months. ETF buyers' average cost is about $86,000, currently in profit, no panic motive. Matrixport notes that after leverage clears, the market tends to be healthier; a similar scenario happened earlier this year.
The variable is macro.
US Treasury yields stubbornly hold above 5%. If PCE exceeds expectations, recovery pace will be suppressed. $83,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it opens a recovery window, with resistance at $84,300–$86,000; breaking below $82,600 leads to the next liquidation zone near $80,500, with about $1 billion long exposure.
Deleveraging is uncomfortable, but it's a necessary checkup for a bull market. This week's data will be the real judge. #ThisWeekFacesKeyNonFarmAndPCEData PCE Wednesday, jobs report Friday, both 8:30 AM ET. Fed speakers in the mix. Expect volatility across stocks, gold, bonds and $BTC. NFA.
I haven't verified the details in your blurb, like the Fed resuming hikes, so check them before posting. If you meant something else, like a summary or a link to your SkeleBuddies mint, let me know.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek 🔥Just a second ago, I was planning to short BTC, ETH, SOL, but now I've completely changed my mind: no more shorting.
🧐The reason is simple, it's not that I've suddenly turned into a die-hard bull, there's a visible signal on the chart — the drop has stalled.
📊The bears' selling pressure is continuously weakening, and the price is quietly finding support and rising.
🚨At this stage, stubbornly shorting, even if the overall direction is correct, can easily lead to getting slapped by the market back and forth.
🎯Trading strategy adjustment:
If the drop stalls, don't chase shorts;
If the chart stabilizes, observe whether the bulls have support;
Enter the market following a volume breakout of key levels.
💰You don't have to force trades every day; choosing to wait when the market is unclear is itself a trading strategy.
What do you think — are the bears actively retreating now, or is this just a brief pause before a new big drop? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ETH Floating profits can be harder to hold than floating losses. 😭
$ETH short: 2782 → 2706 = +223U, but I closed too early while ETH later dropped to 2666.
$UNI long: 5.744 → I didn’t take profit around 10.95, and it’s now back near 8.59.
$KMNO was the other side of the story — the direction was right, but the position still got stuck.
The market wasn’t always wrong. My execution was.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead The monitor is screaming: the 10-year yield has surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007, indicating aortic hypertension; the 30-year yield at 5.55% is approaching the dissection threshold, causing an instant spike in systemic vascular resistance.
Gold is the first organ to be cut off from perfusion, losing 4% in a single day, with silver close behind at nearly 5%. This is not emotional arrhythmia; it’s an inflation lesion reactivated by high oil prices; the strong dollar acts as a tourniquet, but it clamps down on the entry path for risk assets.
BTC and $xMETA are falling in sync, a typical case of multi-organ hypoperfusion: as the main pump pressure rises, the most distal tissues suffer hypoxia and necrosis first. Vital signs can compensate for a long time, but ischemia is silent.
It’s not time for defibrillation yet. PCE and employment data are contrast agents; if the imaging doesn’t reset, it’s impossible to tell whether this is reversible vasospasm or an irreversible dissection that has already torn. #USTreasuryYieldHigh Stop focusing on topics like "US 30-year Treasury yield surges to highest since 2002"; looking at the 30Y yield alone is not very meaningful, you need to consider the overall situation!
Refer to the five different bond market trends I wrote about yesterday for this week. Tonight, Brent and US Treasury yields are diverging. Nominally, the market is worried that domestic inflation issues in the US will lead to a second rate hike, causing asset repricing (previously mentioned option a).
If this situation does not improve, and the 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields continue to rise in sync, the increase will no longer be an expectation of a second rate hike in October, but rather an expectation of the Fed raising the neutral interest rate or even returning to a rate hike cycle. This expectation is very unfavorable for risk assets (previously mentioned option c).
Potential risk: Looking at the daily bond market yield curves, the 10Y and 30Y yield curves are clearly steeper than the 2Y, and this week's yield trend means the bond market risk exposure is gradually expanding, i.e., an extremely bearish steepening trend (previously mentioned option e).
Of course, at present, the possibility of option e is still low. Here, we can observe gold's trend. Gold is falling in sync, meaning the bond market has not yet entered the option e mode. If gold later resists the yield rise or even rises together with bond yields, then beware of bond market default risk.
Because when sovereign bond credit confidence declines, it is potentially bullish for gold as a safe-haven asset!#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% The foundation has only just laid two layers, and I damn well rushed to dismantle the formwork and remove the scaffolding. This is basically treating the skyscraper's profits like building an illegal makeshift shed!
Look at this $SUI candlestick; it firmly set the caisson foundation at the Bollinger lower band of 1.1057. The 1-hour oversold recovery is solidifying like high-grade cement. I clearly saw the structure was extremely solid at the bottom, but after a slight pullback and a small rebound, I foolishly closed all my long positions!
Now, with a level gauge, the price has directly surged to 1.1315, RSI has climbed back to 40.6, and the top is heading straight for the Bollinger upper band at 1.1888. The tiny profit I initially took isn’t even enough to buy a few bags of cheap cement. If I had honestly held my position steady, how much pouring profit could I have made from this main construction topping out? Earning a little labor fee and feeling proud, only to see others take the entire building’s top-floor dividends—this kind of frustration, worse than a liquidation collapse, is even more suffocating than carrying hot bricks all day in the summer!
The frame beams have been set up, and the bottom support piles bear the load extremely evenly. Whoever jumps ship while retesting the foundation load-bearing wall is voluntarily giving up the entire building’s construction payment.
- Target: $SUI 🟢
- Entry: 1.1200 - 1.1350
- TP1: 1.1650
- TP2: 1.1880
- SL: 1.0950
The sinking limit is right at the 1.1000 mark. If the main load-bearing wall is breached, the whole building is deemed unsafe and must be demolished and rebuilt.
#StrategyPlaybookThis large range is a widely recognized reasonable price range in the market over a long period, roughly between 2114 and 2854—2880. The price has repeatedly completed two-way trading in this area for a very long time. In other words, 2114 and 2854—2880 are not ordinary support and resistance levels but the two extremes of this long-term auction. The middle is the area where the market repeatedly does business, while the upper and lower edges are where the market continuously tries to find higher or lower prices. Especially the upper side, 2854—2880, from the historical price reaction, every time the price enters this area, the market has shown a significant re-pricing. The upper boundary repeatedly verified by the long-term auction. This market is very simple; it just requires patience to see whether the market accepts or rejects at the edge areas, thereby deciding to short or long the rotation area $BTC $ETH The more optimistic you are, the less it rises — the "bias law" in the crypto world
AAVE surged again. A piece of news about "considering increasing burns" was like throwing a match into dry wood. From a bottom of 60 to 170, nearly a threefold increase in less than a month.
In contrast, $OKB's one-time massive burn has now become a "mistake." After the one-time positive effect was fully realized, the price deflated like a punctured balloon. Some lamented: if it had been done quarterly instead, stimulating the market every quarter, it wouldn't have come to this?
Behind this is a harsh truth: the crypto world rewards "expectation management," not "one-time generosity." AAVE understands this well — burns are not done all at once but continuously inject imagination into the market. OKB's "generosity" instead caused it to lose subsequent stimulus cards.
Even more painful is the saying: the more you are optimistic about something, the less it rises.
What you hold heavily often remains unmoved; what you hesitate to buy suddenly soars. This is not mysticism but because "being optimistic" means concentrated chips and high costs to push the price up; while those ignored are easier for funds to pick, sailing smoothly past countless obstacles.
So, don't fight against your own "optimism." Crypto price movements never shift according to your will. AAVE's breakout is the result of burn expectations plus bottom consensus; $OKB's weakness is the cost of overused positive news plus dispersed chips.
Rather than regret "who to choose back then," remember: positive news should be given in batches, faith should be bought in batches. Those who burn themselves all at once often extinguish first #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据