Orbit Post Sitemap
$ZEC 🛡️ The Privacy Coin Bitcoin + zk-SNARKs = Shielded Transactions 21M Supply | Decentralized | Real Use Case In a world of surveillance, privacy matters. NFA. DYOR. #ZEC #Zcash #Privacy #CryptoWhen $STRC was last at par exactly, Bitcoin was trading at slightly over $81k.
If we are to assume (based on todays move) that it will return to par after another potential tweak by Strategy next week, I dont see any reason why Bitcoin cannot go back to $81k and above.
There have been many negative narratives over the past 10 months, but in my opinion, the one recurring theme was the ridiculous attack on Saylor and Strategy.
With STRC back at par, sticky inflation still a major conversation in the markets, the underlying asset increasing in value, and a $4bn cash reserve in place, I think Strategy gets back to buying Bitcoin.
It may not be as agressive as the first 4 or 5 months of the year. It may not in itself, numerically, be enough to move the market. But the sentiment boost, and subsequent narrative shift, may just be enough heading in to September to kick start the next bull run.
Watch this space...Anytime $STRC has fallen off its $100 peg target $BTC has found a local low and rallied once its re-pegged back to their $100 stated amount per share.
It has taken $STRC a lot longer this time to get back to target price, but I do think the same thing will happen with $BTC once it gets there.🚨 STRATEGY’S BITCOIN FLYWHEEL MAY FINALLY BREAK TONIGHT!!!
$MSTR reports earnings tonight with:
• 843,775 BTC bought at an average price of $75,476
• STRC depegged to $88.5 versus its $100 target
• Three straight weeks without buying more BTC
• Strategy sold $544.5M of stock last week just to build cash reserves
$STRC was designed to trade near $100 through adjustable dividends.
The yield has already been raised to 12%, and $STRC still trades at a ~11% discount.
Strategy has now started buying STRC back, including $25 million at an average price of $86.52, allocating another $975 million for buybacks.
Sell $MSTR shares → dilute common holders → fund reserves and STRC support → buy less Bitcoin.
Tonight could expose the weakest balance sheet Strategy has faced in years.Before the bell even rings, I've already silently reenacted twenty steps of the $FIL endgame in my mind. It rose 4.11% in 24 hours, sounding like a beautiful central pawn attacking, but the board never declares victory just because a pawn advances. The Bollinger Bands are at 81% in the short term and 102% in the medium term. This is not standing at the upper edge, but rather the thin paper that has already pierced the upper edge. RSI is 66.5 in the short term, 49.3 in the long term—the short term is like a war chariot that can't be stopped, while the long line is still lingering in the middle line, showing a disconnected formation. This is the most typical "fake first-move" in the midgame: before the second player can catch up, the minion wave has already penetrated deep into the enemy line.
On my board, the red signal has already lit up: SELL. A true grandmaster never clashes head-on with the opponent at the peak of their forces, but sacrifices a soldier to lure them into narrow street battles. $FIL Now is like an overprotected elephant, seemingly occupying a wide line, but in reality, every step shrinks its range of movement. An 81% short-term position means it can still take a step or two, but a 102% mid-term position tells me: this roof can't hold a second person anymore.
So my plan isn't to chase the rally, but to set up defenses below the opponent's formation in advance. I don't play when others are cheering; I wait for the price to reach the point I predict—that's not entering the market, it's "catching double numbers." Now at $0.75, there's still a 4.1% buffer to my entry, which is $0.78. It may seem like a countertrend, but the most ruthless attacks in Chinese chess often start with a discarded piece that seems to be losing the lead.
📉 Kong:
Entry: $0.78 (current price +4.1%)
Take profit 1: $0.70 (-6.8%)
Take Profit 2: $0.71 (-4.6%)
Stop loss: $0.87 (+16.5%)
Look, my Take-Profit 1 is farther than Take-Profit 2, just like a two-piece chain in an endgame: first take the distant pathway minion, then turn back to capture the nearby boss. The stop-loss is set at +16.5%, which is the most fatal gap on the open line; Once that place is breached, the entire royal city will irreversibly open. The short-term RSI is 66.5, just a few inches short of the overbought line; the long-term is 49.3, indicating the major cycle is still hesitant. The divergence between the two time dimensions is more convincing than any one-sided signal—this is precisely the moment when the early players are most likely to make mistakes when transitioning from midgame to endgame.
Bollinger Bands have 81% in the short term and 102% in the mid-game, each telling the same story: too long multi-head minion waves, broken support supply. A true player never chases fleeting local advantages; at the thickest part of the opponent's formation, he has already begun planning counterattacks on the other side. Now, the opponent has played a 'soft' move, exposing their weaknesses to my field of vision without reservation.
I won't refuse this gift. #coinmovealert#SPCX首份财报将公布, with the $100 billion unlock imminent, is SpaceX safe if it rises 6%? The real highlight comes next
Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 all the way to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candlestick is quite strong, but if you see it as a reversal now, I think it's still a bit too early.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real trouble lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will be eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, the corresponding market value is about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, unlocking is not an additional issuance, nor does it mean these stocks will definitely be sold. It does not increase total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of chips in the market.
Currently, SpaceX has about 640 million shares in circulation, and this batch of shares to be unlocked exceeds the existing circulation. If all are entered into the market, the tradable chip theoretically increases by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's account is also quite interesting.
Revenue for 2025 is $18.674 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%; Adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, with operating cash flow of $6.785 billion. Judging by these alone, it really doesn't seem like a company with poor business.
On the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Simply adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditure in 2025 has already exceeded $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly spent on Starship, Starlink satellite networks, and AI data centers.
Among them, Starlink's connectivity business is actually very profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, which is expected to lose $6.355 billion in operating losses by 2025.
So tonight, we can't just focus on 'whether revenue exceeds expectations.'
What's even more worth watching is whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the pace of AI and Starship's cash burn has slowed, and whether management is willing to provide clearer follow-up guidance.
To put it bluntly, SpaceX's current business isn't profitable, but rather that its earning speed can't keep up with its spending speed.
On the market, $116–$120 is the first short-term resistance. If the financial report is good but the stock price can't hold even here, it shows that funds are more afraid of the lock-up unlock; If after the volume ramps on August 6, it can still hold at $116, then there will truly be people willing to take on this batch of chips.
Let's first look at $105, then $100. As for the IPO price of $135, it remains the heaviest position among trapped investors for now.
The logic behind the subsequent trading is actually quite simple: how much the price rises after tonight's after-hours is just sentiment. The real answer is how much remains after Thursday's lock-up is lifted.
Financial reports tell the story, and unlocks test how many people are willing to pay real money to believe the story.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Fundamental Research Report $AAPL / Apple (NASDAQ·Consumer Electronics/AI) $303.42 (24h -1.78%)
To summarize: Apple ($AAPL) has an overall score of 62/100, with a rating that emphasizes narrative over implementation. The business fundamentals are mainly external payments, and the market value-to-income multiple remains within a reasonable range.
Apple ($AAPL) is listed on NASDAQ, focusing on the consumer electronics/AI sector. Simply put: iPhone + Apple Intelligence. Benchmarking against MSFT and GOOGL. AI computing power demand comes from large model training and inference, with hyperscaler capital expenditure being the core driving force. A single AI server sells for $200,000–$500,000, with a gross margin of 10–15%, and economies of scale determine profitability. It does not involve token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product launch: Officially operational with paid usage, revenue can be verified by SEC 10-Q/10-K, financial data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, valid submissions in the past 90 days Not found times.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. 24-hour stock turnover $71.99M, outstanding shares and market capitalization structure yet to be confirmed. The core is whether revenue growth rate and gross margin match stock price expectations. On the revenue side, operating income is $466.82B (latest financial report/consensus estimate), gross profit is estimated based on industry averages to be supplemented, net profit is to be recognized in 10-K/10-Q, and shareholder income is based on buybacks and dividends. Making money for US companies does not necessarily mean token holders are making money; BTC-related assets like MSTR/COIN need to separate BTC floating gains. On the code side, 90-day valid submissions not found, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: Apple ($AAPL) is the listed entity, and the shareholder structure is subject to disclosure on 13F/10-K. Primary cooperation is based on IR announcements as Grade A evidence, media mentions and industry conferences are Grade C/D, and are not used solely as commercial grounds.
Valuation anchor, circulating market cap $4.46T, valued at P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable to token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) need to be split into BTC exposure and main business revaluation. Let's look at it together with peers (unified standards, no random cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Apple $4.46T, MSFT $3.62T, GOOGL $4.57T. For FDV, Apple has not disclosed MSFT at $3.62T, and GOOGL at $4.57T. In terms of annualized revenue, Apple $466.82B, MSFT $331.84B, and GOOGL $445.87B. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Apple has not disclosed this, MSFT has not disclosed, and GOOGL has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, current market cap $4.46T, P/S (consensus revenue) 9.5x. Cyclical stocks (mining companies/GPUs) use cyclical adjustments for P/E. Pessimistic outlook is $4.46T, halving and maintaining a neutral range; optimistic about P/S expansion of 20-50%. In summary: solid fundamentals (score 62/100). Equity value anchors revenue, net profit, and buyback dividends. Circulating market capitalization is reasonable or low relative to fundamentals, FDV is close to MC, no major unlock, and selling pressure is manageable. Potential pitfalls: Rising macro interest rates suppressing valuations, AI capex investment falling short of expectations, regulatory litigation (SEC/DoL). Next, focus on these numbers: revenue growth rate, gross margin, buyback amount, order backlog, and changes in institutional holdings (13F). Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
That's all for this research report. If you found it useful, please give it a follow.
#基本面研报 #美股 #研究 #OKXOrbitTips for Turning US Stock Markets into Crypto: How do pre-market, after-hours, night sessions, and 24-hour trading come about?
U.S. stock trading hours will worsen until 24 hours. Just look at its history and you'll understand:
🔹 1985:
The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq, only has morning and midday trading, with no after-hours trading. Just like A-shares.
🔹 1991:
Trading volumes in London and Tokyo rose sharply, but they are not in the same time zone as US stocks.
If trading hours are not extended, global funds can only go to local exchanges.
So Nasdaq took the lead in launching ECN (Electronic Communication Network) trading after hours, extending it by one hour (just business competition).
🔹 1990s~2000:
With frequent financial reports, economic data, and geopolitical conflicts, these often occur during Asian or European trading hours. If U.S. stocks do not offer after-hours trading, there will be significant gap-up risk, leading to continuous orders flowing out.
Therefore, major exchanges have gradually expanded after-hours trading hours, with only one core goal: to retain orders and prevent diversion of orders. (Once everyone understands, they're starting to grab users.)
🔹 2024:
A historic step — U.S. stocks officially launched 24-hour trading (overnight trading).
🔹 2026:
24-hour trading will become mainstream and standard.
📌 The core reason is simple:
24×7 trading in cryptocurrency and forex markets has become a global standard.
If you don't provide it, users vote with their feet, and both orders and liquidity are transferred away.
Times have changed, and the market will always vote with real money.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finaleFrom "buy, buy, buy" to "sell, sell, sell": Strategy's playbook is being rewritten
On August 3, Strategy submitted a document to the SEC—
From July 27 to August 2, 1,638 Bitcoins were sold, cashing out $104.7 million.
Average price: $63,957.
Their holding cost is $75,419.
Each coin lost $11,462.
The once "buy-only, never sell" Bitcoin whale is now selling at a loss.
Don't rush to curse just yet. Let's look at these numbers before we continue:
In the first seven months of this year, Strategy bought 174,895 BTC and sold 3,620.
Selling volume is less than a fraction of the buying volume.
842,000 BTC, accounting for 4% of the global total, with an average cost of $75,419.
But things are not that simple.
On June 29, Strategy officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework."
From then on, the phrase "never sell" was thrown into the trash.
CEO Phong Le put it bluntly: the company's main goal is to keep STRC preferred shares stable in the $99 to $100 range. What is STRC? It is preferred stock issued by Strategy, with an annualized dividend of 12% and a face value of $100.
But now it's only worth $89.46.
This is more than 10% lower than the face value.
Why sell coins? The answer is all here:
A 12% dividend—you can't afford not to pay it.
STRC fell below par value, breaking the positive cycle of "issuing preferred shares → buying BTC."
So this time, half of the money from selling coins is paid as dividends ($52.4 million) and half as STRC buybacks ($52.3 million).
At the same time, the company sold over 3 million shares of MSTR common stock, raising $290 million—$250 million into dollar reserves, and $28.9 million to continue repurchasing STRC.
As of August 2, dollar reserves had reached $4 billion.
4 billion in cash, 840,000 BTC. Previously, it was "issuing bonds to buy crypto," now it's "selling coins to maintain stability."
Even more ruthless is yet to come:
The company authorized the sale of up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin.
This is four times the 1.25 billion yuan plan in early July.
The purpose is divided into three parts: 1.25 billion yuan to supplement reserves, 1.76 billion yuan for dividends and interest, and 2 billion yuan for stock buybacks.
Michael Saylor himself said that $5 billion is the upper limit, "but the total may ultimately be higher."
What does $5 billion mean?
At the current price of the coin, that's about 78,000 BTC.
Less than 10% of their total holdings.
But the direction has changed.
Before, we did addition; now we do subtraction. The community has exploded.
Some say Saylor betrayed his faith. Some say this is forced financial self-rescue.
Saylor himself responded: "I have never sold any personal Bitcoin, not a single Satoshi."
But netizens dug up old tweets from the past six years in which he repeatedly declared he would "never sell."
Rules only bind retail investors, not themselves?
This is not a collapse of faith, but a strategic transformation.
Strategy is no longer a "buy and sell" Bitcoin ETF.
It has become an active capital management company.
Bitcoin has transformed from a "faith asset" into a "liquidity tool."
Previously, storytelling relied on "how much BTC we have."
Now, storytelling relies on "we have 4 billion in cash + 840,000 BTC + flexibility to cash out at any time." What does this mean for the market?
Short term: Negative sentiment. The phrase "the biggest bulls have started selling" is scary enough.
Medium to long-term: This precisely indicates that large institutions need liquidity management. Strategy is not bearish on BTC; it is forced to sell by the 12% dividend.
As long as STRC doesn't return to $100, they won't resume large-scale buying for a day.
Now it's 10% short.
This 10% is the signal the entire market has been waiting for.
You're still wondering, "Can Bitcoin reach 100,000?"
Holders of 840,000 BTC are already calculating "how much to sell to pay dividends."
While you're still shouting "HODL."
The founder of "Never Sell" is being forced to sell coins by their preferred stock structure.
Understanding this shift is ten thousand times more important than obsessing over how much was sold this time.#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed disagreements are fully revealed: Has BTC's "liquidity spring" been crushed by insiders?
The July FOMC remained unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. On the surface, things were calm, but inside, things had already fallen apart:
In a 9:3 vote, the three local presidents—Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan—immediately opposed the proposal, demanding a direct 25bp hike.
Walsh says he's "waiting for data," but three opposing votes make it clear—inflation hasn't returned to 2%, rate cuts aren't the benchmark scenario, and rate hikes are the only option to be postponed.
Previously, the market was trading "rate cuts within the year," but now it is being forced to reprice:
• 10Y US Treasuries surged 4.68%, 30Y fell to 5.22%, no rate hikes but tighter than rate hikes (bond market tightened on its own)
• Citibank is looking for rate cuts in October/December, Min Bank expects one rate hike this year, Northeast Securities expects the rate cut hasn't been cleared out—institutions themselves are conflicted
• Trump wants to cut interest rates, the Fed's "three hawks" want to raise rates, and Chairman Walsh uses "unforward-looking guidance" to shift the blame onto the market
My view is straightforward:
This round of disagreements is not noise, but signals. The Fed has shifted from a "countdown to rate cuts" to a "rate hike standby," and the crypto market is still pricing in a rate cut bull market—just like catching a knife from the left side.
In the short term, BTC isn't about ETF inflows, but whether the 10-year yield can be pushed back below 4.5%—if it can't, existing funds will continue to deleverage, and the rebound will be just a chance to reduce positions, not a signal to chase long positions.
But conversely, divergence = volatility = opportunity: if another 25bp increase is made in September, with all the negative news being sold out + liquidity expectations recovering, that is the entry point for the next trend long position. Don't believe in the 'macro bull is back' now—survive under the 3.5%–3.75% rate anchor.
Crypto folks, remember this:
When the Fed is fighting internally, don't take sides with all your holdings; Wait until the day they unify interest rate hikes or cuts, then follow the trend.Let's take a look at who is pushing this rebound. $BTC rebounded from just over 62,000 to 63,800 over two days, but the perpetual funding rate only turned positive from zero to moderate, without the high positive rate of aggressive bull borrowing; At the same time, the main blow-ups in the past 24 hours were the bears. Putting these two points together, the picture becomes clear: this is more like a squeeze driven by "short covering," rather than a main rally driven by incremental bulls entering aggressively. What's the difference? The fuel for a short squeeze rebound is short stop loss; once burned out, the flame easily stalls; A real trend reversal depends on continued spot support and healthy OI expansion. So don't rush to label this wave as a "reversal"—first see if the rates will overheat.AI storage is opening a new track, with HBF and the industry power behind it shifting
SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Google have jointly released the first high-bandwidth HBF flash standard specification
Developed by OCP's HBF Technical Working Group, it defines system interfaces, electrical specifications, xPU and HBF host interfaces, as well as reliability and packaging guidance for die stacking. AI chip startup Tenstorrent subsequently joined the alliance. This marks the opening of a new track for AI storage after HBM.
HBF is a new storage tier between HBM and SSD, achieving bandwidth close to HBM and much greater capacity by stacking NAND flash. A single stack can reach 512GB, about 8 to 16 times that of similar HBM, with read bandwidth up to 1.6TB/s.
Its significance lies in meeting the demand for AI to shift from training to reasoning. Inference is a burden that demands both bandwidth and capacity: HBM is too expensive and too small, SSDs too slow, and HBF fills the middle, mainly serving KV Cache and weighted shards for read-to-write data.
It is worth noting:
1. Upgrading the main theme of storage price increases.
Previously, the market focused on HBM supply outstripping supply and soaring storage prices; even Apple's Cook warned at its earnings call that memory chips are experiencing a once-in-a-century price increase.
The significance of HBF lies in expanding AI's storage needs from a single HBM to the NAND flash line. In other words, in the past, the main drivers of the AI narrative were DRAM-based storage manufacturers; now NAND has also gained entry, and the AI-driven storage industry is sweeping through.
2. Who holds the starting position?
SK Hynix and SanDisk are the standard leaders, essentially setting the rules early on a new track that hasn't yet taken shape, gaining a first-mover advantage. For domestic storage, HBF is a window where standards are just starting and the landscape is not yet firmly established. It is both an entry point and may evolve into a new technological barrier dominated by a few giants.
3. Google's Role.
Google is not a storage manufacturer, but it participated as the lead party in setting the standard. The standard specifically defines the host interface between xPU and HBF, and here, xPU refers to Google's self-developed AI chip.
This shows that the definition of storage in the AI era is shifting from traditional storage vendors to cloud providers directly involved. Whoever uses massive computing power for inference is more motivated to define what storage looks like for inference services.
⚠️ It is important to remain objective that HBF is still futures rather than spot for now.
According to the plan, SanDisk's first batch of samples will be delivered in the second half of 2026, and samples of AI inference devices equipped with HBF are expected to appear in early 2027, so commercialization will still take time.
At the same time, the main bottleneck in flash memory's lifespan lies in write and erase operations, which means it is positioned as a supplement rather than a replacement.
💥The value of HBF lies not in current revenue, but in the fact that it marks the competition in AI storage, moving from the single-point battle of HBM to the layering battle between HBM plus HBF plus SSD. #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
In just a few months, the market narrative has taken a major turn: at the beginning of the year, everyone was generally betting on the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Now, with interest rate hike discussions back in the spotlight, internal divisions within the FOMC are fully revealed—9 votes to maintain and 3 members directly support rate hikes—a rare occurrence in recent years.
First, clarify the core root causes of disagreements
Everyone's goal is 2% inflation; the contradiction is not at the end, but in the rhythm of judgment.
Hawkish camp: Inflation stickiness is stronger than expected, oil price volatility persists, and delaying rate hikes will only create more stubborn price pressures, requiring early tightening.
Wait-and-see camp: Employment is gradually cooling down, and the previous rise in long-term bond yields has passively tightened financial conditions. They prioritize waiting for more data to avoid excessive tightening impacting the economy.
The market bids farewell to the "deterministic narrative"
Wash's forward-looking guidance was drastically reduced, no longer providing a clear policy direction for the market. The previous trend of blindly going long on risk assets based on "rate cut expectations" no longer exists; every round of CPI and PCE data triggers sharp fluctuations in expectations and continuously pushes volatility.
The pricing logic for long-term bond yields has changed
Short-term yields are temporarily on hold, but the 30-year yield continues to surge. Concerns about funds: The Fed remains unchanged in the short term, and if inflation rebounds, it will need to keep interest rates higher in the future. Long-duration assets (BTC, growth tech stocks) continue to face valuation pressure.
My interpretation is: don't simply interpret "3 people advocate rate hikes = rate hikes soon."
Most members still tend to wait and see, and that an immediate rate hike in the short term is a black swan scenario.
But the most important signal: the rate cut window has been extended for extended periods, and high interest rates are being sustained for a longer period.
This means that bull markets are difficult to rely on loose liquidity; the market can only rely on endogenous funds and favorable regulatory incentives as independent catalysts.
Completely abandon the fantasy of long-term one-sided bullish positions; respond with a range-bound oscillation mindset. A rebound is suitable for gradually reducing positions; do not chase highs.
Market trends are highly dependent on economic data. If inflation strengthens again, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, putting pressure on mainstream currencies; Only with inflation continuing to cool will a window of temporary recovery be reached.
The knockoff environment will become even more fragmented. When liquidity expectations are unstable, funds tend to cluster around BTC and ETH, and small-cap coins generally show weak sustainability.
The market will focus on two key indicators to track going forward: PCE inflation data and whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can hold its high level.Overview of BTC's historical bull and bear cycle fluctuations
Based on historical multiples and high-low drawdown data, I will try to predict the bottom of this round and the high of the next multiple according to the rules
Conclusion:
The bottom is 37,800-44,000
Multiples of 3-5 times, but even 5 times might be overestimated
Given that we cannot buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, the actual multiples we can get are definitely not as high as theoretically
So BTC is losing its high volatility. What do the experts think is good or bad?
A bear market is long, just for fun, and does not constitute investment advice
$BTCThe biggest illusion in contracts: You think liquidation is because you misread the direction
Actually, it's not.
Most people die in contracts not because of choosing the wrong direction, but because of the moment the funding rate spirals out of control. When the cost of holding a position starts to eat into floating profits, the contract in your hand is no longer a transaction—it's just a passing of the word.
Rates keep rising, positions heat up, until one day, the market only needs a gentle push, and the whole structure collapses.
The big pool can still hold up:
$BTC · $ETH · $BNB · $SOL · $XRP
Mid-cap coins and high-beta altcoins are always directly engulfed:
$SUI · $APT · $SEI · $NEAR · $AVAX · $ADA · $DOT · $LTC · $TRX · $TON · $LINK · $UNI · $AAVE · $MKR · $HYPE · $ZEC · $SNDK · $DOGE
These stocks, after every OI overheat, move almost identically—pull up, fill the longs, then strike back to the starting point. Every sharp drop you see on the candlestick is backed by a pile of positions being cleared.
The AI and infrastructure sectors are similar:
$TAO · $FET · $RNDR · $AKT · $DATA · $WLD · $SENT · $NEX · $AGIX · $OCEAN · $AIOZ · $KAITO · $NEAR · $FIL · $AR · $THETA · $GRT
Before dumping, contract positions for these coins always pile up to the high, then buy them all at once. It's not that the project is bad, but that leverage is too maxed out—a single pullback can wipe out all the bulls.
The DeFi sector is no exception:
$UNI · $AAVE · $MKR · $PENDLE · $RE · $KAITO · $ENA · $ONDO · $JTO · $LDO · $CRV · $COMP · $SNX
When leverage stamps in, spot buying cannot be supported, and prices plummet.
Meme and high-beta stocks have the fastest liquidation speeds, with a 20% drop in minutes being a normal performance:
$PEPE · $WIF · $BONK · $FLOKI · $POPCAT · $MEW · $MEME · $CHIP · $JELLYJELLY · $YALA · $FIGHT · $ROBO · $DOGE · $SHIB · $BOME · $GIGGLE · $BEAT · $LAB · $TRUMP · $HOME · $MEGA · $SPACE · $VIRTUAL
You think you're trading momentum, but you're actually just taking the last hit when emotions are at their highest.
The worst off are those low-liquidity stocks. Once forced liquidation is triggered, you won't even find counterparties:
$ARB · $OP · $MATIC · $FIL · $EOS · $SAND · $ALGO · $LTC · $TRX · $TON · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $RAVE · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE · $VIRTUAL · $ACU · $MEGA · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $METIS · $GEOD · $GRVT · $OMNI · $MF · $NIGHT · $OPN · $WMTX · $LSSOL · $HYPE · $ZEC ·
$SNDK · $AEON · $BICO · $PUMP · $BZ · $HOME · $RE · $ZAMA · $CORE · $SOON · $XMR · $MU · $SPCX · $SKHY · $CL · $XAU
These coins are not without opportunities; their leverage margin is too low. When you enter, you see it as an opportunity; only when you come out do you realize the cost.
$RAVE This round is a living example. A market driven by high leverage only hits bottom after a forced liquidation.
When trading contracts, keep an eye on OI, track funding rates, and manage your margin well.
High leverage can turn a promising trading opportunity into a forced liquidation notice.
Living long is far more important than earning quickly.
$BTC$ETH$SOL
#Crypto #Trading #Leverage #清算风险 #合约交易 #风险管理
Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.Fundamental Research Report $KAS / Kaspa (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Summary: Kaspa ($KAS) overall score 58/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental Breakdown: Kaspa (token $KAS), public chain/L1 sector. Focuses on GhostDAG high-speed PoW. Competitors include BTC, LTC. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Kaspa $3.00B, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. FDV: Kaspa $4.20B, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Annual revenue: Kaspa $2.00M, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Kaspa undisclosed, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic scenario revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 58/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future indicators: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from public data, not investment advice. Conclusions invalid if core indicators change by more than 30%.
End of report, welcome to discuss.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit$PLTR has released its earnings report. First, a disclosure: I hold a position myself, so the following judgments come with a bias; everyone should weigh them independently.
Palantir's Q2 earnings report is indeed very solid. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing the market expectation of $1.81 billion. U.S. commercial revenue is even more impressive at $764 million, up 149% year-over-year. This is the most noteworthy figure in the report, indicating that the company is no longer relying solely on government contracts.
Adjusted EPS was $0.41, beating the expected $0.35. Adjusted free cash flow was $1.22 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a single quarter. This quality of cash flow is uncommon among growth stocks.
What truly makes me reconsider the valuation is the guidance: the company raised its full-year revenue guidance by nearly $500 million at once, to a range of $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion, well above the market's original $7.7 billion expectation. The Rule of 40 score reached 145%, meaning the combination of revenue growth and profit margin achieves both high growth and top-tier profitability. This combination is indeed rare in the current AI market rally.
Karp also reiterated their moat logic: they don't sell models or charge by token, but enable customers to deploy AI on their own infrastructure while retaining full control over data and models. This AI sovereignty narrative is their core differentiation from pure model companies.
However, I remind myself that no matter how impressive the earnings report is, the current valuation already factors in a large portion of optimistic expectations. After the positive guidance upgrade is priced in, how the stock price will digest this expectation gap in the short term is a separate matter from the earnings figures themselves. Holding a position doesn't mean ignoring valuation risks; one must watch those risks and not just pick the good-sounding numbers because of holding shares. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $PLTR #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Reflections on portfolio allocation during a bull market
70% are highly convicted investing
30% are speculative high-risk investments
It's very important to segment your portfolio this way; it helps you keep a clear mindset, keep funds to chase opportunities, and always maintain long-term exposure
High conviction investing should be coins you are willing to hold for several months, backed by core fundamental arguments, and have clear expiration conditions to judge when you are wrong
Things like $BTC / $ETH / $SOL / $HYPE, but the best high-conviction opportunities are those you find a mid-cap coin and actively allocate to it, as consensus forms around it. For me, the last cycle was $SOL and $COIN around 10 billion in market cap, when they weren't recognized as mainstream big coins then, but I was able to see these trading opportunities before they became mainstream and profited a lot. 2024 is the $HYPE Before consensus forms, I'm actively looking for these trading opportunities in the upcoming cycle. You may already know some coins I think might be suitable for such opportunities this cycle
But this is where you should spend the most time and effort researching and gradually build your position over time. If you have a nine-to-five job, you should dedicate part of your income specifically to exposure to risk assets this way. @X Honestly, it's a great research forum to find people with good ideas
A 30% speculative position is always crucial because it allows you to take on greater risk while gaining exposure to coins that could return the entire portfolio. This is where you spend time mining new trading pairs, buying innovative on-chain projects, using perpetual contract leverage to go long on coins, and trading meme coins with growing momentum
You'll lose at higher failure rates on these coins, but you also have a higher chance of hitting 1000x. For those with small capital portfolios, this is where you should spend most of your time. When your portfolio is low, you have to work harder than other traders in the market, positioning ahead of the on-chain narrative before it becomes consensus and finding excellent entry points
This part of your portfolio can also help you avoid FOMO, because if you've already set aside funds to follow this week's hot trends, you won't sell your high conviction positions just for that, and when your judgment is right, you'll have more capital to compound later on—a practice that is often underestimated
I keep seeing people on the timeline getting angry about their coins staying idle. I think a big part of their frustration is because they haven't diversified their portfolios this way. If you've already set aside funds to chase things that are rising, even if it's just a small amount, you won't get mad just because other coins are performing well. Every market has traders and holders. In my view, we're entering a period where holders outperform traders, but only if you're holding the right coins, and having a follow-up position nearby can protect you from the risk of tightly holding junk over gemsThis is the most dangerous place in the current area
It's not the crypto world pulling it up on its own
It's the US stock market that's strong
BTC pulled
But the Korean stock market is warning you
AI trading has already begun to diverge
$QQQ pull up to around 700
$NVDA Station near 206
U.S. tech stocks indicate risk appetite
$BTC also surged back to around 63,700
Everything seems to be going smoothly
But things are a bit different in Korea
KOSPI is still experiencing significant volatility recently
Samsung
SK Hynix
These are heavyweight AI semiconductor stocks
Once the capital hits you,
This shows the market isn't blindly buying AI
Instead, it is about re-screening assets
Structure 4 focuses on one problem
Where can money really be parked?
The first layer is still the capital anchor
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
$SOL
$LINK
$AAVE
$PENDLE
$HYPE
This batch isn't the most exciting every day
But there is liquidity
There is a succession
There is a precedent
There are also escape routes
$BTC The most critical level now is 64,000
Hold steady at 64,000
The bulls can keep playing
Unable to stand steadily
Let's first try the reverse draw this time
The second layer is elasticity observation
$SUI
$ARB
$OP
$ONDO
$SEI
$ENA
$XMR
$KAITO
This batch is worth watching
But you can't just because US stocks are red
BTC pulled
Just go straight for 50 times
A truly strong coin
Someone responded to the backlash
Fake assertiveness
After the rush, you're left standing guard
The third layer is the Overload Table
$DOGE
$PEPE
$WIF
$BONK
$SHIB
$FLOKI
$GIGGLE
$BEAT
$LAB
$TRUMP
$MEGA
This table is the best at leveraging momentum to put on a show
BTC surged to 64,000
The group started shouting for a breakthrough
The demon coin began to rally
Someone posted a transaction worth 100,000 U
Once you get carried away,
20 times
50 times
100 times
The liquidation price is directly placed in front of the market players
Don't just look at the crypto gainers now
We also need to look at the Korean stock market
If AI semiconductors continue to be smashed
This shows that global risk appetite is not clean
US stocks are strong
BTC is strong
That doesn't mean knockoffs and local dogs have a get-out-of-jail-free card
Today, the most likely to be liquidated
Not light warehouse or spot stock
These are three types of people
Category One
$BTC Didn't hold steady at 64,000
Just those who chase with high multipliers
The second category
See $NVDA rise
Just mindlessly chasing AI knockoffs
Third category
South Korea's semiconductor industry is still shaken
Yet he was the one who rushed into the demon coin table
Don't be afraid of missing a bullish candle
I'm even more afraid of the emotions you give to US stocks
Treat it as a comprehensive bull market in the crypto world
$QQQ provides risk appetite
$NVDA is about tech hype
The Korean stock market issued a warning
$BTC is the anchor
The anchor was not firmly established
The hotter the demon coins
The lighter the position
The above is just market observation
This does not constitute investment advice
Contract leverage is extremely risky
Investing carries risks; enter with caution📊 Altcoin trading remains very active, but this no longer means prices will rise sharply.
According to CryptoQuant data, during the 2017-2018 cycle, altcoin trading volume was nearly on par with Bitcoin. By 2021, this ratio had surged 5.5 times, meaning every $1 BTC transaction corresponded to $5.5 in altcoin transactions.
In the 2025 cycle, this ratio will still hover between 2 and 3.5 times—significantly higher than during the ICO period. However, most liquidity is currently concentrated only on larger altcoins with market caps such as $ETH, $XRP, BNB, and $SOL, rather than being widely spread across the entire market.
This indicates that trading volume remains, but the "altcoin season" has changed. Capital flows have become more selective, prioritizing the prices of projects with liquidity, solid foundations, and institutional attention, rather than driving prices up across the board as in previous cycles.
#Altcoin #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnchainThere is new news on the geopolitical front: Trump said the U.S. and Iran are "ongoing" in negotiations, and even claimed this is Iran's "last chance" to reach an agreement. The market's first reaction was, of course, "positive for risk assets." But when it comes to narration, you have to see what it actually changes. The so-called 'last chance' can be understood as negotiations promising or downgrade imminent, or as an ultimatum—if talks break down, action will be taken. In the same sentence, bulls and bears each take what they need. $BTC In the recent rebound, how much of it was priced in a moderate geopolitical situation and how much was just a quick excuse for short buying and buying—honestly, it's hard to tell. My stance: Politicians' statements are signals in the noise, not certainty in signals. Don't use a single negotiation shout to decide your positions. Let's walk and see.#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading.
Palantir surged 14% overnight: just how explosive was this performance? Can you still chase him?
Last night, Palantir's stock surged 14% after trading, with its stock price rising from 125 to above 142. Q2 revenue reached 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 93%, earnings per share of $0.41, both beating expectations.
Even more shocking, the full-year guidance was directly raised by nearly $500 million, from over $7.6 billion to $8.15 billion.
Why is the price rising so fiercely? The core is three words: commercialization.
U.S. commercial business surged 149% year-on-year to $764 million, while government business also increased by 90%. Backlogged contracts doubled to 6.24 billion, and CEO Karp bluntly declared that "strong growth could last at least another 18 months." Previously, the market worried the AI boom had passed, but not only did they not slow down, they actually accelerated.
So, can prices continue to rise in the future? Here are a few points to consider:
First, valuations are still expensive. Although Citi reiterated its buy, it lowered the target price from 225 to 200, citing "valuation multiple compression." Goldman Sachs also maintains a neutral stance, with a target price of 182.
The current price-to-price ratio for the forward is still over 30 times, far higher than the industry average of 3.96 times.
Second, there is resistance in the chip structure. The average cost of holding is around 134.8, and above 141.8 is all trapped positions. Last night, after the market closed, it hit 142, just right in this range. Next, it depends on whether they can break through with increased volume and digest the trapped chips.
How do you handle the operation?
For those with positions: hold on. The 141-143 level is key. If it breaks out, look for 150-155, but don't be greedy—taking profits in batches is safer
No position: Don't chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 135-138 range before considering entry. Set your stop loss below 128
The long-term logic hasn't changed: AI demand + sovereign AI trends + AIP platform stickiness are all present, but short-term sentiment is too strong, and chasing in makes it easy to stand guard
In short: the performance is indeed strong, but good buying opportunities always come during pullbacks, not after a sharp rise. Serenity cited Digitimes industry chain news, stating that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already booked DRAM and HBM production capacities for 2027 by customers, and at this stage, customers can only secure 60%-70% of their original demand.
Serenity analyzed that the tight supply and demand situation in the storage market exceeded expectations, and 2027 may usher in the most tight storage period. Meanwhile, SanDisk, Samsung, and Micron have also locked in their annual NAND production capacities; Kioxia and SK Hynix are expected to finalize their capacity allocation plan in August 2026.
Previously, many market opinions predicted that mid-2027 storage would shift to oversupply, but the current supply chain shows that leading storage manufacturers' long-term capacity is basically sold out, and the tight supply-demand balance continues.
Currently, the capacity quotas for major manufacturers and downstream customers have been basically finalized, and product pricing will be adjusted as delivery approaches.
The continued expansion of AI infrastructure is driving demand for HBM and high-end DRAM, which will continue to support tight memory supply.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
$SNDK $ETH $BTC GODS fell from an ATH of $8.91 to around $0.023, a decline of 99.7%. That 67% bullish candle on July 31 was just a pump & dump under extremely low liquidity—the big players pulled up and sold off, and on August 1, it was completely unloaded. Today's 8% drop, just like the 67% yesterday, means nothing in the face of a 99.7% drop. The fundamentals haven't improved; instead, they're contracting. Parent company Immutable cut 29 game development positions and outsourced the development of Gods Unchained. The project shifted to an AI marketing platform, with Gods Unchained becoming a core source of revenue and no longer the main focus of development. Daily trading volume is only $160,000–$180,000, with liquidity slipperier than loaches. Key price levels: Resistance $0.027-$0.028 (current test zone; break out at $0.035), support at $0.023-$0.024 (recent bottom area), $0.0189 (historical low). How far this rebound can go depends on short-term capital competition under thin liquidity, not on fundamental improvement. If 0.027 cannot be passed, the rebound will end. Do you think GODS can break through 0.027? Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $GODS #从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Fully Revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Future, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, After Hours综合当前多方市场信息与数据，以太坊（ETH）后续走势正处于多空博弈的关键节点。整体来看，市场呈现出“机构资金试探性回流与宏观利空压制”并存的复杂局面。以下是影响其后续走势的核心变量及三种可能的走向预测：
一、 核心影响因素与多空博弈
1. 宏观环境与地缘政治（主要压制因素）
美联储货币政策：高利率、强美元及潜在的加息预期正在压制无现金流资产的估值。若美联储在9月继续加息，将严重打击风险偏好 。
地缘政治风险：中东地区（如美伊）紧张局势不断升级，推高了原油价格和通胀担忧。这种宏观不确定性限制了资金流入以太坊等风险资产的意愿 。
2. 机构资金流向（核心驱动因素）
ETF资金流入：现货以太坊ETF近期表现亮眼，连续多周实现资金净流入，甚至在部分单周吸金能力超过比特币。这表明机构投资者正在逐步重返市场 。
企业金库增持：Bitmine等大型机构持续大手笔增持以太坊，目前持仓已接近流通供应量的4.8%，为市场提供了强大的底部支撑 。
资金分流风险：当前加密市场呈现“赢家通吃”结构，大量流动性仍在向比特币集中；同时，全球资金也在被AI算力基础设施相关的科技资产虹吸 。
3. 链上基本面与生态发展
卖压释放与需求锁定：以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零，表明前期抛压已充分释放；同时，约250万枚ETH正在排队等待质押，锁定了大量供应 。
AI生态落地：以太坊链上活跃AI自主交易代理超1200个，DeFi协议中AI智能体组件占比达68%。这正在创造真实的链上需求，是中长期的重要价值支撑，但短期内尚未形成对价格的结构性拉动 。
Layer2生态降温：以太坊Layer2网络的总锁定价值（TVL）大幅滑落至约50亿美元，创下2023年以来新低，反映出部分资金正在从以太坊生态中撤退 。
二、 后续走势的三种情景推演
综合以上因素，以太坊接下来的走势大概率将取决于以下三个关键变量的触发情况：
走向A（悲观下探）：如果美联储9月宣布加息，且机构资金继续向比特币或AI科技资产集中，以太坊价格大概率会进一步下探，甚至可能跌破1700美元关口 。
走向B（中级修复）：如果美联储按兵不动，且以太坊ETF能够保持连续四周以上的持续净流入，市场情绪将得到修复，ETH有望迎来一波中级反弹，价格可能重回2000美元上方 。
走向C（独立行情）：如果AI生态在以太坊上出现爆发式增长，带动链上活跃地址、交易量、质押率等核心数据出现结构性改善，ETH可能走出独立于大盘的上涨行情。但目前该走向的触发条件尚不成熟 。
总结而言，短期内以太坊在1800-2000美元区间震荡整理的可能性较大。多头正在等待明确的催化剂（如宏观政策转向或监管法案落地），而空头则受制于机构持续买盘和卖压枯竭。建议密切关注9月美联储利率决议、以太坊ETF的周度资金流向以及中东地缘局势的演变。Palantir leads the way, validating the rule that "quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, guidance sets the price" with a 93% revenue growth rate and a 12% after-hours increase. The next three events have completely different highlights.
$AMD: The "quality test" for AI chips
The market expects Q2 revenue of about $11.3 billion, a 47% year-over-year increase, with Non-GAAP EPS around $1.61. The company guides $11.2 billion (±$300 million), with a gross margin of about 56%. The data center is the absolute star — expected revenue is forecast to double year-over-year to $6.5 billion, with server CPU sales growing over 70%.
But AMD’s challenge is not just revenue growth; it’s whether the gross margin can hold up. The shipment performance of MI350 and the orders and profits from the Helios system will determine if the market continues to grant it a valuation premium as the "NVIDIA challenger."
$SPCX SpaceX: First earnings report + countdown to unlock
The market expects Q2 revenue of $6.8–6.9 billion, with adjusted loss per share around $0.23–0.26. Starlink remains the financial pillar — expected Q2 connectivity revenue is $3.82 billion, operating profit $1.42 billion. The AI business is the biggest focus; the earnings report will disclose for the first time the revenue scale from providing AI infrastructure services to clients like Anthropic and Google.
But beyond the earnings numbers, the real variable is the unlocking of up to 911.5 million shares starting August 6. The tradable float will double from about 5% to about 12%, and currently about $24.6 billion in short positions are waiting for this moment.
$CRCL Circle: Stress test of the stablecoin business model
The market expects Q2 revenue of about $714 million, EPS around $0.16. But USDC circulation has fallen from nearly $80 billion in March to about $72.7–73 billion.
Circle’s challenge is straightforward: can the contraction in volume be offset by interest rates? USDC has shrunk, but U.S. Treasury yields remain high — reserve interest income may support revenue, but the market will ask: what if rates fall? Morgan Stanley has sharply cut its target price from $106 to $38, while TD Cowen has initiated coverage with a buy rating and a target price of $82. The divergence is absurdly large.
My judgment:
Palantir’s 93% growth proves that "AI software demand remains strong" — guidance is the key to pricing. AMD needs to prove that the incremental demand for AI hardware is still expanding, not just shifting market share. SpaceX’s first earnings report is essentially the first public test of whether the "Starlink + AI" narrative can support a $1.4 trillion valuation — the market has been waiting for this report for a long time. Circle is answering a more fundamental question: when USDC stops growing, how much is Circle still worth? And it may not be able to provide an answer that satisfies everyone.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Strategy sells another 1,638 BTC, Saylor voices distinction
📉 Strategy just sold 1,638 BTC for about $105 million, raised USD reserves to $4 billion, and acquired STRC. Holdings has about 842,138 BTC left. Michael Saylor immediately clarified: "Never sell Bitcoin" is personal advice, companies manage their own capital.
Trader looks: This is the third sale of the year, no longer "just buy, not sell". They prioritize liquidity and pay preferential dividends rather than stacking more when the price is around $63-64k.
Insight: When the largest BTC stack company starts prioritizing cash buffers, the market receives a cautious signal rather than absolute bullish. Their cost basis is still much higher than the current price.日本今年砸了近1700亿美元救日元！
4个月内连续发动三轮巨额干预。
单日规模甚至可能接近590亿美元！
可每次拉升，都很快被利差交易重新压回去。
不解决利率问题，再多外汇储备也堵不住日元贬值！
日本在4月底至5月底投入 11.73万亿日元，约736亿美元买入日元；7月30日疑似再次投入约 589.7亿美元，次日干预规模可能达到 365.8亿美元。三轮合计接近 1690亿美元，仅最近48小时就砸下约 956亿美元，堪称国家级围剿日元空头。
问题是，干预只能制造短线逼空，无法消灭长期贬值逻辑。日本利率仍明显低于美国，套利资金继续借入低息日元、买入高收益美元资产；只要美日利差没有实质收窄，官方拉升后的日元就容易再次被卖掉。
$BTC 🚨 ETH Attention Is Accelerating—But Sentiment Alone Doesn't Confirm a Breakout.
Ethereum is seeing a noticeable increase in online discussion, but rising attention should not be confused with rising demand.
According to recent social data, ETH was mentioned 30 times in one hour, with activity running 37% above its 24-hour average, signaling a meaningful acceleration in community interest.
Sentiment Snapshot 🟢 Bullish: 37%
🔴 Bearish: 10%
⚪ Neutral: 53%
Compared with the 24-hour average (34% bullish, 18% bearish), short-term sentiment has become more optimistic. However, the sample size remains small, so sentiment can shift quickly.
Source Breakdown 📱 X (Twitter): 27 mentions
📰 News: 3 mentions
Most of the discussion is still community-driven rather than news-driven. If media coverage begins rising alongside social activity, it may indicate broader market attention—but official announcements should always be verified.
What Really Matters
Social sentiment is useful, but it should be confirmed with stronger indicators such as:
🔹 On-chain activity (fees, active addresses, Layer-2 usage, staking)
🔹 Spot trading volume and liquidity
🔹 Futures funding rates and basis
🔹 Options positioning and market structure
These metrics provide a much clearer picture of real capital flows than social media sentiment alone.
Current Takeaway
📈 ETH discussion is accelerating.
🟢 Short-term sentiment is bullish.
📱 Most of the attention is coming from X.
That's encouraging—but it does not yet confirm a sustained breakout, institutional buying, or meaningful on-chain demand growth. The next few data snapshots will be more important than any single hourly reading.
Watch the trend—not just the headlines.
NFA. DYOR. 📊
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#Ethereum #Crypto #OnChain #MarketUpdate #DailyOrbitJim Kramer is trending again, this time claiming that quantum computing could crack Bitcoin's security mechanisms within three years and stating he will sell his BTC holdings. Looking back, Kramer has repeatedly expressed contrarian views at key market moments, earning the nickname "contrarian indicator" by many investors. From his suggestion to sell US stocks, to the US rebound and gold price adjustments after bullish gold, every "bearish" seems to be accompanied by a reverse market trend.
That said, the threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin is not entirely baseless. In theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could indeed challenge the current mainstream elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA). This is also why the Bitcoin community has been discussing post-quantum cryptography upgrade solutions for years, including the potential impact of the Shor algorithm on RSA and ECC. But from a practical standpoint, quantum computing still faces huge engineering and physical bottlenecks to practically crack Bitcoin private keys, and three years is more of an alarmist talk.
Kramer's remarks more reflect the limitations of traditional financial commentators in understanding crypto assets rather than genuine technical judgment. Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced countless "doomsday predictions," from regulatory crackdowns to technological upgrades, with each crisis making its underlying infrastructure more complete. For long-term holders, rather than being disrupted by such FUD, it's better to focus on real indicators like on-chain fundamentals and network hash rate.
Quantum threats are a long-term issue, not a short-term selling point. The bearish sentiment from veteran analysts may actually be a counter-signal worth noting.
#BTC #量子计算 #比特币Reports indicate that memory production capacity for 2027 has already been "sold out."
According to DIGITIMES, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron have basically allocated DRAM and HBM production for 2027, but actual supply may only reach 60~70% of customer demand. Here, "sold out" does not mean all inventory has disappeared, but rather that the supply priority for the planned production volume has largely been determined.
Hyperscale cloud providers and AI companies not only purchase large amounts of HBM, but also DDR5 for servers, large-capacity RDIMM, and enterprise-grade SSDs, causing memory for PCs and smartphones to be squeezed out. To secure supply, buyers sign long-term supply contracts (LTAs) lasting 3~5 years, and even pay advance payments.
On the NAND side, Samsung, Micron, and SanDisk have already pre-sold their 2027 production, while Kioxia and SK Hynix are expected to complete allocation by the end of August 2026. Therefore, by 2027, PC and smartphone manufacturers will find it difficult to obtain on-demand memory, which may lead to higher product prices or reduced base memory capacity.
This trend is basically consistent with official sources. Micron expects DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight until after 2027, having announced 16 multi-year supply contracts covering about 20% of DRAM production and about one-third of NAND production from 2026~2030, with customer prepayments and financial commitments totaling approximately $22 billion.
However, data such as "all three major manufacturers have sold out their capacity" and "AI-related products account for 70% of DRAM capacity" are based on anonymous industry sources. TrendForce estimates that HBM will account for about 30% of DRAM wafer investment in 2027, and notes that NAND supply may begin to ease from the second half of 2027.
Claims of tight structural memory supply and supplier advantages are credible, but the exact proportion of "completely sold out" and the exact proportion still require further confirmation. Price increases in 2027 may be lower than in 2026, but high levels may persist for a long time.
#Let's talk about cross-asset temperature differences. UBS's latest view: The "breadth and magnitude" of U.S. Q2 earnings earnings exceeding expectations are both above historical averages, maintaining a 20% full-year EPS growth forecast for the S&P 500, and also warning of upside risks—traditional equity fundamentals are quite strong. But during the same period, the $BTC saw the Nasdaq rise over 2% last night and the Dow hit a new high, while it only rose less than 1% lukewarmly. Risk appetite is clearly spreading, but crypto hasn't caught up—this divergence of 'strong stocks, weak coins' means crypto is either waiting for its catalyst, or the market growth hasn't truly returned. Data won't play along; how long the divergence lasts is the answer in itself.Divisions within the Fed are bigger than expected—some call for increases, some for cuts, and the division is the worst since 2016.
Logan advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike, with the original statement being "interest rates should be slightly higher." Hamack is even harsher; inflation has been over five years old, and the current policy is simply not tight enough. Kashkari followed suit, with three votes supporting rate hikes.
But on the other hand, Waller said the job market could deteriorate at any time—if data doesn't improve before September, he supports a 25 basis point rate cut. He is also the only one publicly calling for a rate cut.
The data battle is the core: inflation remains high, oil prices have just risen 20%, but employment has loosened and prices have started to fall month-on-month. With the same set of data, two groups of people can read completely opposite signals.
Powell didn't miss a word, only saying he was unwavering about the 2% target and determined to take action. But they refuse to give any direction; how September unfolds depends entirely on the next two CPI reports.
For $BTC: The market is now betting on a rate hike unilaterally, and after the Fed's speech, U.S. Treasury yields pushed up again. But if the CPI isn't as bad as people think, Waller's rate cut logic might actually be picked up. At the 68,000 level, it's not about whose voice is louder, but about how the two CPI reports are delivered.
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public 📊 Bitcoin sentiment feels extremely weak right now.
Since entering the market in 2018, this is among the most pessimistic environments I've seen.
What's interesting is that $BTC is still holding around $63K.
The contrast stands out.
After the FTX collapse, Bitcoin traded near $16K, and during the COVID crash, fear was driven by obvious market shocks.
Today, the mood feels different.
Rather than panic, many participants appear exhausted and discouraged.
Recent headlines—from Strategy-related selling discussions to the Coldcard wallet incident—have weighed on confidence.
Yet despite the negative sentiment, Bitcoin has continued to hold a key price area.
That doesn't guarantee higher prices.
But when sentiment remains deeply negative while price shows resilience, it can suggest that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than accelerating.
Markets often become most interesting when price and sentiment stop moving in the same direction.
Whether this marks the foundation for the next move or simply another period of consolidation will depend on how Bitcoin responds to upcoming liquidity, macro, and institutional flow.
$BTC $ETH $BICO
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise OI is still stuck at 111,400 BTC without a cut, the fee rate at +0.0032% is still positive, but BTC has already dropped to 62,528, with volume down 31.3%—the price has dropped, but leveraged bulls haven't exploded or cut off. This is stubbornness, not bottoming.
What does the true bottom look like? OI collapsed, rates turned negative, and bulls tearfully cut losses. Now, none of the three signals are occupied; all are negative.
F&G is stuck at 28 for fear, but panic and surrender are two different things—panic with no one forced liquidation, just a dull knife cutting the flesh.
A 31.3% shrinkage on volume indicates active funds are withdrawing, leaving only long positions with orders placed and holding positions. This kind of situation is the most exhausting: if it can't fall, don't expect it to reach a V.
Just look at my two old positions and you'll understand—ADA long floating loss -1.37%, KAITO short floating loss -0.81%. Neither side is pleasing, just for fun. At least I didn't add to my position and give away kills.
Here's something you can take: judge whether it's a bottom—don't focus on price or sentiment, focus on the three-piece set of OI + rate + volume. No OI collapse, no rate turning negative, no volume released—any "bottoming out" is just an illusion.
The only current buzz is GRVT, a new coin pulse (+14.55%), which can't support a reversal—at best, it's just fireworks among insiders.
A reminder: 10x Research says August might see a bearish bottom, but the bottom comes out of it, not shouted out. Don't buy in advance before your leverage surrenders.
The greatest fear is not a single sharp drop, but this kind of slow death of "neither falling nor rising, holding the bulls tightly"—what drains everyone's patience and margin.
Guys, in this market, do you choose to lie flat or keep holding on? If OI doesn't crash, would you dare to copy it? Comment section reports.
#BTC #ETH #合约 #资金费率 #持仓量 #市场情绪 #行情分析 #杠杆 #OKX星球 #底部形态This is the third time the company has sold Bitcoin since the end of June. Previously, 32 tokens were sold as a trial at the end of May, and 3,588 were sold at the beginning of July.
Here it comes again.
Moreover, the board has raised the cash outage cap from $1.25 billion directly to $5 billion—a fourfold increase.
Someone ran to ask Saylor: Didn't you say "never sell"?
Saylor's response was the most exciting part of the day.
He said on X:
"When I say 'Never sell your Bitcoin,' I'm speaking as one saver to another. I have never sold my Bitcoin, not a single Satoshi. Strategy is a publicly listed company, not my wallet. ”
Translation:
"The slogan I shout is for you to hear. I really didn't sell myself—but my company sold when it was supposed to sell. ”
CEO Phong Le was even more direct:
"When selling Bitcoin benefits the company, we sell. We won't just stand by and say, 'We'll never sell Bitcoin.' ”
He even said, "We are JPMorgan Chase of the crypto economy. Whether to sell 1,000 Bitcoins or 840,000 is not worth discussing at all." ”
Where did the money from selling these 1,638 BTC go?
Half of the dividends paid on preferred stock—an annualized 12% dividend, you have to pay it.
The other half will repurchase discounted preferred shares.
Saylor's personal faith has not lost a single cent. Strategy's balance sheet is bleeding.
Personal beliefs belong to personal beliefs, and listed companies belong to listed companies.
Saylor's personal wallet and Strategy's balance sheet are two different things.
He said, "Even if you sell your kidney, you have to hold onto BTC"—that's to make you sell kidneys.
He didn't sell a single one himself.
The company sells when it needs to sell, lose when it should lose, and fall when it should fall.
Don't treat KOL motivational quotes as if they were listed company financial reports.
Your wallet holds your money.
Saylor's wallet contained his money.
Strategy's balance sheet contains shareholders' money—including yours.#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 美联储真正的分歧，已经不是“降不降息”，而是要不要重新加息。
最新一次议息会议上，美联储继续把联邦基金利率维持在 3.50%—3.75%，但罕见出现三名委员投票支持加息25个基点。与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯仍认为通胀可能逐步回落，不过也明确表示，一旦通胀无法回到2%的目标轨道，美联储会再次收紧政策。
这说明内部争议已经从“什么时候降息”，升级成了“现有利率到底够不够高”。
鹰派看到的是：美国通胀已经连续多年高于2%，能源价格、关税和供应冲击仍可能继续推高成本；鸽派担心的则是，高利率维持太久，会让就业和经济在某个时点突然失速。
但目前的数据并没有给出明确答案。美联储最新报告显示，通胀今年有所回升并继续高于目标，但就业市场总体仍然稳定，失业率变化不大。也就是说，现在既没有迫切降息的理由，也不能彻底排除重新加息。
所以9月会议真正决定方向的，不是谁的讲话更强硬，而是接下来的CPI和就业数据。市场过去习惯提前交易“降息预期”，现在却要开始防范另一种风险：当所有人都在等宽松时，美联储可能被通胀逼着重新踩刹车。
对美股和加密市场而言，接下来最大的风险或许不是一次25个基点的变化，而是利率路径重新失去确定性。@OKX星球 进入8月第一周，加密市场将迎来约6.302亿美元代币解锁。市场最容易关注的是解锁总金额，但真正决定价格压力的，并不是项目释放了多少美元，而是新增供应占现有流通盘多少、接收者是谁，以及市场有没有足够流动性承接。 一、PROVE面临最明显的流通盘冲击 Succinct计划于8月5日解锁2.0833亿枚PROVE，估值约3470万美元。该数量相当于现有已释放供应的104.17%，意味着新增代币规模甚至超过当前流通量。单看美元金额并不算本周最大，但从流通盘扩张比例看，PROVE可能面临最剧烈的短期供需变化。 二、PROVE的压力来自供应结构突然改变 本次PROVE解锁将分配给生态研发、贡献者、投资者、公开分配、激励计划及基金会。并非所有接收者都会立即卖出，但当可流通筹码短时间大幅增加时，市场会提前计入潜在抛压，做市深度、持仓集中度和接收地址行为都会比解锁金额本身更重要。 三、ENA解锁规模更大，但比例相对温和 Ethena计划于8月5日解锁1.7188亿枚ENA，估值约1536万美元，占已释放供应约1.97%。其中9375万枚分配给核心贡献者，7813万枚分配给投资者。与PROVE相比，ENAA new name has emerged in the AI hardware sector: South Korea's chip unicorn DeepX, whose valuation has quadrupled to 3.14 trillion won in one year. Don't underestimate this news—when the primary market is pricing AI chip startups so wildly, it means hot money is still pouring into the upstream computing power chain. The AI sector in the crypto market is essentially a secondary market mirroring the same narrative: the more expensive and sought-after upstream hardware is, the more people are willing to take on the "AI + Crypto" story. Of course, the phrase 'valuation soaring fourfold in a year' is something those who understand — it's both hype and risk. When the primary valuation is overdrawn, it's often when the second level is most excited and most critical of its bullets. Don't let narrative cloud your judgment—let's see who's taking over first.截至北京时间8月4日09:00附近，BTC报约63,293美元，24小时最高约63,996美元、最低约62,227美元；ETH约1,625美元，SOL约77.97美元。BTC从6.22万美元附近获得承接后重新回到6.3万美元上方，但仍未突破近期震荡区间，市场整体处于弱反弹而非趋势反转阶段。 ① BTC ETF暂时恢复净流入 Farside实时数据显示，8月3日美国现货BTC ETF暂录得约5870万美元净流入，富达FBTC净流入3340万美元，VanEck HODL、Grayscale Mini BTC、Bitwise BITB及ARKB等产品也有不同程度流入。不过贝莱德IBIT等部分数据尚未显示，实时表与完整历史表目前存在小幅差异，因此最终结果仍可能修正。 ② 资金方向改善，但规模仍然有限 7月31日BTC ETF曾净流出2.654亿美元，8月3日目前恢复约5870万美元流入，只收回此前流出的约两成。ETF重新转正有助于稳定市场情绪，但暂时还不能证明机构资金已经连续回归，后续更重要的是观察能否连续数日保持净流入。 ③ ETH ETF转为小幅净流出 8月3日美国现货ETH ETF暂录得If even BTC only rose 0.2%, then this month is not a bull market at all, but rather a quiet turnover. Have you noticed that the best growth isn't new stories, but those familiar faces that have been criticized for a long time? This monthly counterfeit statistics are quite interesting; they don't tell grand narratives, only one thing: where is the money hidden? In the past 30 days, among the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only 14 outperformed BTC; the rest were all declining in the market. UNI +19.4%, ENA +15.5%, SHIB +11%—these names together sound like funds saying: I don't believe in new themes, I only believe in cash flow and real users. My own feeling is that the market is going through a phase of "volatility compression." It's not that there's no market, but the market has become a narrow gate—only a few coins can squeeze through, while the rest are being liquidated. ETH outperformed BTC by +3.7%, which is rare in the past six months, indicating that some funds have started peeking out of Bitcoin's safe haven to tentatively buy some "still innovating but not that expensive" assets. But what really sent chills down my spine was the latter half of the list. SOL -10.3%、DOGE -10.6%、SUI -10.8%、HYPE -22.9%、WLD -24.8%、PI -29.5%。 These are not shitcoins; they were the loudest names in the last bull market. They are falling not because of lack of news, but because the market has already priced in the "better future," and now is just把镜头从币价挪到日元。日美历史性联手干预后，据测算已砸下约 870 亿美元买日元，市场焦点转到 155 这道关口——策略师说，若美日持续跌破 155，交易逻辑可能从「逢低买入美元」翻成「逢高卖出」，甚至下探 152。这跟 $BTC 有什么关系？日元是全球最大的套息（carry）货币，日元一旦快速升值，杠杆账户被迫平掉「借日元买高息资产」的仓位，抽走的是全市场的流动性，风险资产往往跟着一起缩水。别只盯着 K 线，日元这条暗线，值得放进你的仪表盘。This week, the US stock earnings season is packed with highlights. Palantir kicked things off last night, setting the tone for the market, and today the real show begins.
Let's start with Palantir's strong opening. Revenue growth hit 93%, and they even raised their full-year guidance, causing a 12% jump in after-hours trading. This move confirms a saying — quarterly data is just the entry ticket; future guidance truly determines valuation. It's useless to just look at current earnings; you have to see how they project the future.
This week, the market's focus is on these three companies.
First is AMD, which will report after the US market closes tonight. Expected revenue is $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year, a pretty impressive figure. But the real test isn't revenue; it's about gross margin and the actual demand quality for AI chips. If AI demand holds up, this guidance will stand strong.
Second is SpaceX, releasing its first quarterly report post-listing on the same day as AMD after market close. It hits a delicate point: on August 6, the day after tomorrow, up to 911.5 million shares will be unlocked in a large-scale release. The selling pressure and whether Starlink's profitability can withstand this sell-off all depend on whether this report convinces investors.
Third is Circle, reporting before the market opens tomorrow. Unlike the first two, its revenue is almost entirely tied to USDC circulation and short-term interest rates. As of the end of July, USDC reserves have shrunk to $72.06 billion. With volume contracting, whether interest rates can fill this gap is the biggest question in this earnings report.
Each of these three has its own highlights, but the underlying logic points to one big direction — whether this wave of AI and technology is supported by real demand or if expectations are already being overdrawn. Palantir’s 12% rise confirmed a rule: as long as future outlooks are solid, the market will pay up. Next, it’s about whether AMD and SpaceX can replicate this script.
$AMD $SPCX $SNDK #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Is MicroStrategy also unable to hold out? Sold another 1,638 BTC...
This time, Strategy sold 1,638 $BTC, cashing out $104.7 million, with an average selling price of $63,957. Compared to the 3,588 tokens sold in early July, the scale is about 54% smaller.
The money from selling coins was not used to run away; $52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $52.3 million was used to buy back STRC.
To put it bluntly, MicroStrategy is not busy with mindless coin buying but maintaining its own financing system.
This sale only accounts for about 0.19% of the total holdings, and the company still holds 842138 BTC, so for now, it's not really "hard to hold out."
Previously, it was a permanent long position that only bought and never sold, but now it has started to use BTC to handle cash needs. Selling once can be called capital management; if you sell consecutively, the situation changes.
Faith hasn't collapsed for now, but the gameplay has indeed changed.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved I am Cige. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have shifted from the magnitude to the direction, with both the rate hike and rate cut camps revealing their positions simultaneously, a rare situation in many years.
The Fed is split into two factions
The rate hike camp, led by Logan, believes that interest rates should be slightly higher, as inflation has been above 2% for more than five years and current policies are not restrictive enough. The rate cut camp, represented by Waller, warns that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and indicates support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting based on current information. Chair Wash has not indicated a direction, stating that the 2% target remains unchanged and decisive action will be taken if necessary, refusing to provide forward guidance. The September path will be determined by two CPI reports before the meeting. Market pricing still clearly favors rate hikes, with no pricing for rate cut proposals yet.
Impact on BTC
In the short term, uncertainty is the biggest negative. Both extreme scenarios of rate hikes and rate cuts are on the table simultaneously, making it impossible for the market to price a single direction, so funds choose to hedge and wait. BTC is oscillating between 62,000 and 63,000, lacking momentum for a breakout.
In the medium term, regardless of which path is ultimately taken, it is beneficial for BTC. The rate hike path strengthens the narrative of fiat currency credit erosion, while the rate cut path directly releases liquidity. The September path will be determined by two CPI reports before the meeting, meaning the inflation data from August and September will directly decide the Fed's next move.what next
Between the market’s one-sided bets and the committee’s spectrum of divisions, the space for CPI to decide is larger than ever. Under the rate hike path, BTC faces short-term pressure but the medium-term narrative is strengthened. Under the rate cut path, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release. CPI data will be the key variable in deciding the direction.Palantir这份财报，把“市场已经没有风险偏好”这句话戳出了一个洞。
第二季度营收达到19.35亿美元，同比增长93%；其中美国商业业务收入7.64亿美元，增长149%。
增长速度很快，现金流也跟上了：调整后自由现金流12.20亿美元，自由现金流利润率达到63%；公司本季度还签下220笔金额超过100万美元的合同，其中73笔超过1000万美元。
这些数字公布后，Palantir盘后上涨约13%。
这13%的背后有一条清晰路径：AI需求变成合同，合同变成收入，收入继续变成现金流。资金仍愿意为高增长资产支付溢价，只是如今要求故事能够落进报表。
它也给 $BTC 和 $ETH 提供了一个观察风险偏好的参照。
如果高增长科技股继续上涨，BTC和ETH却迟迟无法跟随，市场面对的就不是全面避险，而是加密资产自身的增量资金不足。ETF净流入、稳定币供应和现货成交量，需要拿出能够与美股财报相匹配的“硬数据”。
资金已经开始奖励能够兑现增长的资产。币圈下一轮扩散行情，也需要从情绪叙事走向真实流入。
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% 一条被币价盖过去、但分量很重的产业线索串起来看：韩国单层 NAND 7 月均价环比涨 35% 创历史新高，TrendForce 预计三季度 PC DRAM 合约价再涨 15%–20%，更狠的是——存储三大原厂 2027 全年产能已经谈完分配、DRAM 与 HBM 直接售罄。这不是普通涨价，是 AI 把内存需求彻底重构后的「卖方市场」。对我们炒币的意味着什么？存储超级周期是这轮 AI 硬件叙事里最硬、最能被证伪的一条主线，它证真的每一步，都在给「AI 到底是不是泡沫」这场辩论加码。这条线，值得长期挂在雷达上。走着看。1. Financial Report Overview: Fully Crushing Expectations
Palantir delivered a truly "explosive" Q2 report card. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, far exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.81 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, also above the market expectation of $0.34-0.35. Net profit was about $1.1 billion, compared to only about $329 million in the same period last year.
This marks Palantir's ninth consecutive quarter of beating market consensus expectations and the twelfth consecutive quarter of accelerated revenue growth.
2. Core Highlights: U.S. Business Business—A True Growth Bomb
In the past, the market believed Palantir was overly dependent on government orders, but this quarter's financial report completely shattered that label.
U.S. business revenue surged 149% year-on-year to $764 million; U.S. government revenue grew 90% simultaneously to $809 million. Total revenue from the U.S. market grew 115% year-on-year to $1.573 billion, accounting for over 81% of the company's total revenue.
Even more noteworthy are signals at the contract level—the total value of new commercial contracts (TCV) in the U.S. reached $2.132 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153%. The company closed 220 deals exceeding one million USD in a single quarter, 73 of which exceeded 10 million USD. The value of U.S. commercial residual contracts increased by 124% year-on-year.
These data show that companies are paying for Palantir's AI applications at scale, rather than staying at the small-scale pilot stage.
3. Key Narrative: "Sovereign AI" — Palantir's Differentiated Trump Card
CEO Alex Karp put forward the core narrative of "sovereign AI" in his shareholder letter—companies want to have full control over their data, logic, workflows, and AI model outputs, rather than handing over core assets to large model companies.
Karp stated frankly, "Our customers trust us to give them maximum control over their operations, data, and decisions." Their competitive advantage should never be the training data for future models. ”
This strategic positioning precisely addresses the biggest pain points in current enterprise AI deployment—concerns over data sovereignty and security—and is the underlying logic behind Palantir's 149% breakout in the commercial market.
4. Financial Quality: Not just growth, but profitability
Palantir demonstrated not only high growth this quarter but also high-quality earnings:
· GAAP operating margin is 47%, with an adjusted operating margin as high as 62%.
· Adjusted free cash flow surpassed $1 billion for the first time, reaching $1.22 billion, with a free cash flow margin of 63%.
· The "Rule of 40" score reaches as high as 155%—this metric measuring the balance between growth and profitability for SaaS companies is usually set at 40% as an excellent baseline
5. Significant Guidance Increase: Management Confidence Surges
Based on strong performance in the second quarter, Palantir has sharply raised its full-year revenue guidance from $7.65-7.66 billion to $8.15-8.16 billion. Of this, U.S. commercial revenue is expected to exceed $3.42 billion, representing at least 134% annual growth.
Q3 revenue guidance is $2.16 billion–$2.164 billion, also far exceeding analysts' expectations of $2 billion.
In an interview, Garp boldly declared: "As far as I know, no company of our scale can grow at half of our rate." This strong growth looks set to last at least another 18 months. ”
6. Market Reaction and Stock Price Background
After the earnings report was released, Palantir's after-hours stock price surged nearly 15% to around $143.
However, it is worth noting that Palantir's stock price has still fallen about 30% since 2026, mainly due to overall software stocks being sold off and valuation adjustments. Previously, the stock achieved triple-digit gains for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025.
Summary
The core signal from Palantir's quarterly financial report is that the demand for enterprise AI applications has shifted from proof of concept to large-scale commercial implementation. The explosive 149% growth in U.S. commercial business, the market recognition of the "sovereign AI" narrative, and the first surpassing $1 billion in free cash flow all point to one conclusion—Palantir is becoming one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI commercialization wave.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is for financial report data analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market carries risks; invest with caution.U.S. stocks overnight 📈
Last night, the Dow hit a historic high, the Nasdaq rose over 2%, but oil prices plunged below $80, down nearly 7%. The trigger was Trump suddenly canceling plans for military action against Iran and scheduling talks on Monday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With oil falling, inflation expectations eased, and both U.S. Treasuries and stocks strengthened.
This rebound has a bit of a short squeeze flavor; the worst-performing stocks over the past year, Meme stocks, and software stocks are actually leading the charge. Among the Big Seven, Meta, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia all rose, with only Apple lagging behind. Cloud computing was even stronger 🚀, with CoreWeave and Oracle both posting double-digit gains.
▶️ Ahead of SanDisk's earnings report, both bulls and bears are heavily betting
The earnings report will be released after the market closes on August 5, with an investor day on the 13th. The options market is not taking sides; instead, both sides are increasing positions.
Near-term Calls are noticeably more active, with strikes at 1300, 1370, and 1500 attracting significant capital, indicating short-term bets on a rebound. But looking further out to August 21, Puts still have heavy open interest, with many positions clustered between 800 and 1000. This is not a contradiction but a classic barbell strategy—betting on a big rally on one side and buying crash insurance on the other ⚖️
Implied volatility is frighteningly high, nearing 200% around earnings, which translates to the market expecting about 16% price swings up or down. SanDisk’s stock has already swung from 1600 down to 1000 and back up this month, so the volatility is justified and not random pricing.
▶️ SpaceX rallies late in the session
Tomorrow after the market closes is the first earnings report since listing. The market expects revenue of $6.88 billion, significantly higher than last quarter, mainly driven by a surge in AI compute power leasing, with Starlink users and revenue both increasing. This late-session rally looks like an early run-up on that expectation.
More importantly, the valuation logic is shifting; the market is starting to reclassify it from a pure aerospace stock to an AI infrastructure plus satellite internet hybrid 🛰️. Leasing compute power to big tech companies creates a second growth curve, and Starlink’s cash flow eases concerns about the burn rate.
There’s also a technical factor: a large batch of restricted shares will unlock on August 6. The stock price has already been halved before, so shorts are covering early to hedge, and with sector-wide correlation, sentiment is amplified.
Unlock pressure combined with AI business still burning cash means guidance that is even slightly conservative could lead to a spike and then a pullback.
$SNDK
$SPCX The most honest signals in a rebound are often hidden in the ranking of strength and weakness. This $BTC rebounded from 62,300 to around 63,800, up +1.2% intraday, $SOL also rose 0.85%, while $ETH only rose 0.1%, remaining at the bottom of the mainstream. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, indicating that when funds rebound, BTC is the first to replenish BTC, rather than treating ETH as the main offensive force. A healthy bullish rebound usually involves leaders leading secondary players together. The current structure of "BTC dancing alone, ETH falling behind" feels more like short covering squeezing out the market rather than incremental capital entering the market. Looking at strength rankings is closer to the truth than looking at single price changes. How much longer do you think ETH will remain weak?