Orbit Post Sitemap
The market moved in the evening session, with Bitcoin sliding from 84,000 all the way down below 83,000, dropping more than two points in 24 hours. ETH followed back to 2,650, and SOL also fell to 1.18, with nearly 70,000 people liquidated across the board. After sideways movement for more than ten days, many people, feeling frustrated, started opening random positions, and this drop buried them directly. But from another perspective, a correction is not a bad thing; Bitcoin is already very close to the first buying zone at 82,500, so just patiently wait for the orders to fill. At times like this, the two worst things to do are chasing shorts and panic selling. If your position structure is sound, hold on—the real opportunity comes from the dip.I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
9.28 Intelligence: $BTC closed above the May high, technically bullish, but less than 1% from the high, almost standing still!
Historically, after breaking above the 50-week moving average (like in 2019 and 2023), it usually rises 20%-30% within 1-2 weeks, but this round's increase is obviously weaker.
The market worries about seasonal weakness and continuously rising yields.
Previously, I predicted weakness in Q4, but BTC's continued strength makes me reconsider.
Future analysis will reduce subjective bias and stay open. Standing above the high but unable to rise—is it a buildup or a sign of an upcoming reversal? Keep a close eye on the mid-term trend!Funds hit rock bottom, so I impulsively went all-in on $ETH at 2639 with 100x leverage. Now I’m up 37%, with just $30+ margin and about $12 profit.
On the 15m chart, MACD turned green, DIFF/DEA are hinting at a golden cross below zero, and price is near the upper Bollinger Band. But liquidation is only ~20 points away at 2621.
I’ve had a taste of profit—should I take it or keep holding?
$BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead Today the crypto circle isn't a market, it's a large-scale real-life minesweeper: step on a square, the whole family goes to heaven. BTC has over 1 billion in short orders buried beneath its feet; breaking below 80,516, bulls line up for cremation; surging to 88,520, bears face collective funeral. ETH is even worse, with 600 million on each side: breaking below 2,562, long positions get wiped out; breaking above 2,828, short positions ascend to heaven. Don't ask about rise or fall, just ask who hits the line first. Breakthrough → liquidation → stampede → unplugging → wails in the group chat. Exchanges laugh hard: thanks to the loyal fans for the trading fees. BTC: 80,516/88,520; ETH: 2,562/2,828. Today, keep your eyes glued, not on the market, but on who gets carried away first. Purely for fun, don't go all in.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 A major holder liquidated all long positions with one click, and the group chat immediately went silent. The silence is not surrender, but no one dares to bet on a direction. The same action can be interpreted in two ways: he might be preparing to short, or he might just not want to ride the roller coaster anymore. So I don't guess intentions; I just wait for the price to give the answer.
It's too early to call a "bull return" before two hard conditions are met: first, the daily chart must retake the 200-day moving average; second, the pullback must not break the dense trading zone between 74,000 and 78,000. Losing the second support turns it into resistance.
My principle: only buy in batches at support levels, never chase before resistance. Right now, all three coins are hanging in the middle; the excitement belongs to others. If the position isn't right, just keep waiting. If you’re itchy, just close the app.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The cooperation between Citibank and Coinbase specifically enables institutional clients to follow a complete process:
Convert fiat currency into crypto or stablecoins, complete payments on-chain, and convert back to fiat when needed.
There is no "bank buying coins" step here; the bank is outsourcing the settlement layer to the blockchain.
What is truly being replaced is cross-border clearing—traditional correspondent banking systems are slow and expensive, replaced by real-time on-chain settlement, saving both time and intermediary fees.
Therefore, the value of this lies not in capital inflow, but in revitalizing the infrastructure.BTC 83,307｜Key level starts at 83K
BTC has pulled back from above 85K, returning near 83K. Last week, ETF funds still maintained net inflows, but cooled down significantly in the latter half of the week. The market now has funds supporting it while also digesting previous gains. $BTC
For contracts, the key focus is 82K–83K. Holding this level and reclaiming 84K would leave room for short-term recovery; if 82K breaks, the correction pace may accelerate further.
At 83K, do you think this is more of a shakeout or a shift in market rhythm?
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. 📊 9.28 BTC & ETH Market Analysis
From the perspective of the medium to long-term moving average structure, the overall trend is still relatively weak. The recent rally looks more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop, rather than a complete trend reversal.
If the price rebounds to the upper moving average resistance area, it may face selling pressure again. Therefore, the short-term focus is on confirming the pressure after the rebound and waiting for the market to give a clearer signal of a pullback.
🔻 BTC Trading Range
Bearish focus: 84,100 – 84,500
Target area: 82,900 – 82,300
🔻 ETH Trading Range
Bearish focus: 2,720 – 2,750
Target area: 2,650 – 2,610
Currently, it is more important to watch whether the price can effectively break through the upper resistance and the changes in volume and momentum during the pullback.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ThisWeekFocus on Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE Key Data
#EarningsWatch｜Micron earnings approaching, AI and storage demand become market focus
⚠️ NFA｜The above is only market analysis and opinion sharing, not investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, please do your own research and manage risks accordingly. Good evening! Going out during the day delayed the update, but good food is worth late. Let's take a look at tonight's Mixen strategy. BTC: Looking back at the previously mentioned 85150 level, isn't it very accurate? To reach this level at a high level, with enough patience, you can smoothly exit the market. It broke through the 83780 holiday sideways level during the day, then looked for the lower 81700 level. Currently, the post shows there is bullish resistance, with near-term resistance between 83780-84400. For night session shorting, I recommend entering here. If it returns to 85150, that's a bullish counter-bag. Whether true or not, just obediently exit the bears. If you want to buy more, use the lower 81700 as a defensive level. If it breaks below 81,700, then move down to 80,220-78,500 (see chart for details). ETH: The elasticity of Bitcoin is greater than that of Bitcoin. The previously mentioned 2716 level successfully plunged, but the night session saw strong recovery. The intraday high was the 8 a.m. pulse at 2702 in the morning session. If the night session recovers from 2702-2716, it would be a bullish rebound. Bears should be cautious. During the day, it stopped falling and rebounded at 2635. You can check yesterday's tweets, which are clearly marked. Since it works, just use 2635 as a bullish defensive position. (See chart for details) #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC The decline starting on Monday should be caused by two combined reasons:
1. The China-US summit did not produce results beyond expectations, and was even somewhat below expectations, leading to a pullback after the positive news was fully priced in.
2. The short-term rate hike expectations were overplayed. Unlike the rising rate hike expectations before the September FOMC meeting, the probability of a rate hike before the October FOMC meeting is expected to be high first and then lower, so the trend will likely fall from a short-term peak before rising again.
After all, looking around, besides gold which still has good value, other assets are not cheap, so a pullback is needed before continuing the rally.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$BTC $ETH Finally, it crashed down like a waterfall Luckily, I never gave up So many people advised me to cut losses earlier But I refused to sell I endured a floating loss of over 9,000 U Now breaking even is finally not just empty talk In my eyes, this is still a bear market rebound The fiercer the rise, the more it looks like giving shorts a position $ETH has already formed consecutive lower lows on the 15-minute chart Price has fallen back below MA20 2640 is the most critical support at the moment If $BTC Review of today's market: the whole day was volatile with intense battles between bulls and bears, requiring flexible adjustment of trading strategies according to the market.
In the morning, we proposed a long strategy at 84000‑84400, with students entering real trades and a stop loss at 83700. However, bearish forces exceeded expectations, support was broken, and long positions were stopped out.
With support lost and the bullish logic invalidated, we did not hold positions but immediately switched to a short strategy targeting 83000. The market reached this target as expected, and short positions took profit to turn losses into gains.
In the afternoon, after dipping to 83000, strong buying support led to a V-shaped recovery. We continued to suggest low long positions at 83000‑83500, targeting 85000. In the evening, BTC showed a slight upward trend.
Trading should follow the trend first; accept small losses when wrong, decisively follow when the market turns, adhere to the bullish main line, and always prioritize risk control.
Recommendation: go long in the 83000‑83500 range, target around 85000
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 MicroStrategy has recently started clearly buying BTC again.
Latest disclosure: Strategy bought 1,665 BTC from September 21–27, investing about $142.7 million, with an average purchase price of $85,681. The current total holding has reached 847,666 BTC, with an overall average cost of about $75,437.
The rhythm is actually quite interesting:
In early August, it continuously sold BTC, cumulatively reducing thousands of coins from July to August; then at the end of August, it bought back 4,603 BTC, mid-September bought another 950 BTC, and now bought 1,665 BTC again.
More importantly, the source of funds has changed: the previous round of 950 BTC was mainly purchased with cash, while the latest round was financed again by selling MSTR stock—a week selling about 1.469 million shares of MSTR, net raising about $246.2 million, of which about $142.7 million was used to buy BTC.
So Strategy's current actions can be summarized as:
Selling BTC at low levels to preserve cash flow → reaccumulating cash → resuming BTC purchases after BTC returns to $80K → restarting "issuing shares to buy coins."
Even though BTC is already significantly above its overall holding cost, Strategy continues to increase its BTC exposure.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #MichaelSaylo $ONDO | STRONG FUNDAMENTALS, WEAK PRICE
Ondo is making real progress in tokenized finance, with live tokenized equities, expanded regulatory authorizations and growing RWA adoption.
Yet price hasn't caught up.
ONDO recently traded near $0.57.
$0.52 is key support. Reclaiming $0.60 could signal improving sentiment.
My take: Watch, not a long. Ondo needs real institutional demand and stronger token value capture, not more announcements.
#OndoBlackRockStrategy
$ONDO I am the mid-term intelligence guy. 9.28 Intelligence: $BTC closed above the May high, technically bullish, but less than 1% from the high, almost flat! Historically, after breaking above the 50-week moving average (like in 2019 and 2023), it usually rises 20%-30% within 1-2 weeks, but this round's increase is obviously weaker. The market worries about seasonal weakness and continuously rising yields. Previously, I predicted weakness in Q4, but BTC's continued strength makes me reconsider. FuturMonday BTC ETF, will it continue to buy?
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF was very strong: a net inflow of about $2.39 billion for the whole week, and net inflows were maintained for 5 consecutive trading days.
But there is one detail worth noting:
Monday +$999 million
Tuesday +$715 million
Wednesday +$347 million
Thursday +$191 million
Friday +$135 million
Funds are still buying, but the inflow speed has been declining continuously.
Therefore, on Monday I am more focused on two scenarios:
If BTC stabilizes around $82K–84K, the ETF may continue to maintain net inflows, and even see institutions buying on dips; if BTC continues to quickly break key support levels, a continuous net inflow interruption cannot be ruled out.
So what really matters on Monday is not whether BTC can immediately rise, but:
When the price falls, do ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, etc., still buy?
If there is a "BTC falls, ETF still has large net inflows" situation, it is actually a signal of notable chip absorption worth paying attention to.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #FBTC #CryptoStarship didn't reach orbit, but I bought the dip
Just checked pre-market, $SPCX first rose nearly 1%. Starship's 14th test flight was supposed to reach orbit for the first time, but although it successfully launched and touched space for the first time, one engine shut down in the sky. The official announcement was: no orbit insertion today, and no Starlink deployment either.
As soon as the news came out, pre-market plunged, instantly dropping over 2%, from 148 down to 145. Guess what I did at this moment? I bought in directly.
Why dare to buy? Because this test flight is not a failure at all:
• 33 engines ignited and launched, Starship truly entered space for the first time — a historic step;
• The failure to reach orbit was due to the thrust of that one engine, not attitude control loss, and no explosion;
• Last time with V3's maiden flight, it exploded halfway, yet it was celebrated as a milestone across the internet because all data was obtained. This time, there will be even more data.
To be blunt, the market panics when it sees "failure" or "no orbit insertion," but SpaceX's valuation has never depended on the success or failure of a single launch. The 26 Starlink V3 satellites not launched today will be launched next week. The short-term dip is a gift for those brave enough to get on board.
Just checked again, the price has already recovered. No need to panic, this is just the beginning.
This is just my personal view on the market, not investment adviceWallets are becoming increasingly complex, yet new ETH users actually need something simpler.
Ethereum can support many complex financial operations, but ordinary users often just want to safely complete a single transfer. Every additional authorization window and every new set of terms increases the chances of mistakes and abandonment. I am optimistic about the application potential of $ETH, but I do not equate rich technical capabilities with a product that is already user-friendly.
The wallet is the first layer through which users interact with the network. It should clearly explain what signing means, which assets the transaction will affect, and how to handle exceptional situations. If the interface only shows a string of hexadecimal data and then asks users to confirm they understand the risks, it does not truly solve the comprehension problem.
Usability should not come at the cost of control. More convenient recovery mechanisms, payment methods, and account management all need to clarify which participants they depend on and who can change the rules. Improvements in user experience should make risks more visible, not hide complex relationships and let users only find out who they trusted after something goes wrong.
I hope Ethereum's next phase of competitiveness will not only be about what developers can do but also about what ordinary people can confidently do. Reducing confusion in each operation and increasing clarity in each signature will affect long-term adoption. For ETH holders, this is a growth variable worth caring about. Users are not here to take a technical exam; the network's value must be realized through people genuinely willing to use it.Greed index 74, positive funding rate, 30 K-line amplitude 17% — in this environment, chasing $SEI long, are you ready to admit your mistake? Here's the answer first: you can participate, but only with a light position, and you must set your exit conditions before opening the position.
$SEI current price 0.0804, 24h +9.00%, MA5 0.079984 just crossed above MA20 0.079839, trend structure still biased bullish; but RSI 56.8 is only neutral to slightly strong, MACD histogram -0.0002878 still shows bearish momentum, indicating this rally is not confirmed by indicators, representing a price-leading, momentum-lagging pattern. Bollinger upper band 0.0852978 is the first resistance above, lower band 0.0743802 is the lifeline of this bullish structure. More caution is needed as the funding rate is +0.0100%, indicating crowded longs, and the fear and greed index 74 has entered the greed zone. Once sentiment reverses, the speed of long liquidation will be faster than the rise.
Directionally, I remain bullish but only trade on pullbacks, not chasing highs. Entry reference 0.0788–0.0798, the MA5 and MA20 convergence zone; the pullback must hold to be valid. Take profit 1 at 0.0850 (near Bollinger upper band, reduce half position); take profit 2 at 0.0885 (extension target after breaking upper band). Stop loss at 0.0740 (below Bollinger lower band, break invalidates bullish structure).🔮 NFP reaction order I’m watching:
$SOL ~$120 → first, highest beta. Hold $120, target $128.
$BTC ~$84.2K → sets market direction. $85K reclaim = strength.
$ETH ~$2.7K → likely follows BTC. $2,750 breakout matters.
$OKB ~$121 → defensive; $120 is key support.
$RE ~$0.47 → likely last, waiting for RWA rotation.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek Today's top gainers are led by Quant (QNT), driving the cross-chain infrastructure sector to rise, but chasing the rally carries extremely high risk.
Leading gainers:
· $QNT (Quant): surged 88%-102% in 24 hours, leading the market. The catalyst is its selection on September 24 by The Clearing House as the interoperability and settlement technology provider for the US on-chain currency program, fueling market speculation about its cooperation with the US banking system.
· $GRT (The Graph): up 28%-30%, following the cross-chain infrastructure sector.
· $W (Wormhole): up 14%-19%, also part of the cross-chain infrastructure rally.
· $SOON: up over 31%-43%, mainly driven by funds from Korean exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, etc.), representing localized market speculation.
Is it worth playing? The risks far outweigh the opportunities.
The core issue is that the gains have already overextended the narrative. QNT's daily doubling-level surge means early profit-taking is very substantial, and any slight disturbance could trigger a stampede sell-off. Moreover, the overall market backdrop is weak: BTC remains in a weak consolidation below $84,000, and ETH has fallen below $2,700. When the market is unstable, altcoins' independent rallies often lack sustainability.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 PUMP surged 17.5% trending on hot search, only 23 out of 71 in the whole market are up
$PUMP hit CoinGecko hot search on the same day, rising 17.5% in 24h, current price 0.0053. I'm directly bullish but only trade long with stop loss.
The volume is real. 24h trading volume is 87,820,169 USDT, 2.883 times the 30-day average; daily MACD crossed above zero line with a golden cross 1 day ago, red bars are still expanding.
The structure is intact. Daily RSI is 65.8, slightly strong but not overbought, MA7 crossed above MA30 for the 4th day, closing jumped out of the Bollinger upper band, bandwidth 39.9%.
Derivatives are not overheated. Funding rate 5e-05 is neutral, OI increased +6.63% compared to yesterday 23:20 snapshot, long-short account ratio 1.3052, not crowded.
But the overall market is really weak. Only 23 out of 71 coins are up, median change -3.163%, phase high divergence pullback, risk_off, US stock crypto concept stocks average -2.26%.
Resistance above: 0.005369 (24h high)
Support below: 0.005288 (4h SAR)
Current price 0.0053, enter long directly, unconditionally cut loss and exit if it breaks below 0.005288, take profit first at 0.005369 if it holds. Hot search plus volume golden cross, I stand with bulls against the trend this round.
Watching the market now, follow me, I will shout the next signal immediately.
$PUMP $BTCOld Trump is stirring things up again, saying that the number of people working in the US hit a record. Translated, this means the non-farm payrolls will most likely exceed expectations, and there's a good chance BTC and ETH will drop first as a sign of respect.
I'm personally shorting; I shorted BTC at 81550 and ETH at 2610. What's the current market situation?
BTC $BTC is at 83379.8, down 1.28%, with a low of 82606.2; ETH $ETH is at 2684.50, down 0.21%, with a low of 2635.71. Both are still hovering above my short entry prices, so I'll hold the positions for now.
Interestingly, Wintermute has established a $126 million short position on Hyperliquid, and big institutions are also joining the bearish party.
However, Strategy bought 1,666 BTC last week, so both sides are betting; it's hard to say who will win.
There are still PCE data, Micron's earnings, and the Hormuz situation ahead; we'll wait for the data to come out before making further moves.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 September 25
In the previous half month, I continuously made profits, gaining 5 times the profit, which made me think I had thoroughly understood the market.
I started to operate recklessly without following the rules. Constantly hitting stop losses, continuously opening positions, increasing leverage, trying to recover.
Hahaha
How tragic!
Not only did I lose the profits, but I also damaged the principal.
Hahahahaha 【Old Leek Observation】
$2Z Those who have profits can take profits to avoid the heat.
This coin has surged a bit recently, but the real big event is still ahead.
On September 24, $2Z was still around $0.055.
On September 26, it peaked at $0.0806, rising nearly 50% in two days.
Then it started to fall back, now about $0.063.
The problem is there is a very large unlock on October 2.
About 1.66 billion $2Z will enter circulation, valued at over $110 million at the current price.
Even more exaggerated, this batch is nearly 48% of the current circulating supply.
And October 2 is not the end.
Every week afterward, about 31.1 million more will continue to be released.
So the core contradiction of $2Z now is simple:
The price has just started to rise with volume, but the supply side is about to see a huge increase.
Now: $0.063
Entry: $0.061–$0.066
Take profit: $0.075 / $0.081 / $0.095 / $0.12
Stop loss: $0.056
The most worth watching this time is not "whether the unlock will crash the market."
But whether the market, already aware of such a large supply coming out, can still push the price up before the unlock.
Coins that can withstand the expectation of massive unlocks have a completely different trend from those simply pumped by sentiment.Citibank and Coinbase have partnered, announcing that they will collectively refer to stablecoins without locking to a single currency.
USDC is the core mainstay, while the system also supports USDT and PYUSD.
The key point to distinguish is that this is a B2B payment solution aimed at institutional clients.
Although USDC has compliance advantages, whether it can be widely implemented depends on the regulatory details of each country.
Multi-stablecoin compatibility is only feasible at the technical level and does not mean all will be widely adopted.
Institutional business progresses slowly, so do not overestimate the incremental impact of implementation in the short term. $CRCL $ETH 9.28 Mid-Term Intelligence 🧠
$BTC broke above the May high, but momentum remains weak. Is this consolidation before the next move—or a reversal warning?
With yields rising and key Q4 data ahead, I’m staying flexible and watching the trend closely.
$ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#MicronEarningsAhead #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #OpenAIAnthropicProbe 💧 Liquidity Quality Test｜$BTC vs $SPCX vs $HYPE
📊 Order Book Snapshot:
$BTC: Spread 0.000%｜Top 5 Buy Depth $1.61M
$SPCX: Spread 0.007%｜Top 5 Buy Depth $232.7K
$HYPE: Spread 0.001%｜Top 5 Buy Depth $54
🔎 From this snapshot, $BTC shows significantly higher visible buy depth, making its order book absorption capacity worth noting during rapid market fluctuations.
⚡ However, note that liquidity changes rapidly with time, volume, and market conditions; data from a single point in time does not represent ongoing performance.
Which one do you focus on during fast markets?
🔵 $BTC
🟣 $SPCX
🟢 $HYPE
#TraderDesk #Crypto #BTC #SPCX #HYPE
⚠️ NFA｜Not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risks accordingly. $CORE The sky is falling! The CORE node staking page is completely inaccessible, showing a Service Unavailable 503 error.
Loyal fans participating in node staking are left helpless, as the staking portal is completely unreachable.
503 means the server cannot provide the service, possibly due to temporary maintenance or server overload. However, the project team has always promoted staking as a core selling point, repeatedly emphasizing that staking secures the network.
Now the core staking service is directly inaccessible, and users who have locked their tokens in staking can't even check their status.
A single 503 error does not mean the project has abandoned its operations. But for users with locked staking assets, having their funds locked long-term and now unable to access the portal causes real anxiety.
As expected, the community has started using familiar soothing phrases: it's just routine maintenance, please be patient.
But retail investors’ tokens are locked inside and cannot be managed; if operations fall behind, the potential risks will continue to grow.
They constantly boast about the staking system’s stability, yet the core service is down. The grand narrative meets server failure, casting doubt on all the promotion.
Don’t be swayed by stories of long-term staking; before locking your tokens, be sure to understand the hidden risks.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky.Breaking news, Chainlink officially launches CCIP 2.0, bringing real-world assets like stocks onto the blockchain.
Leading institutions such as Fidelity, ANZ Bank, and Deutsche Börse have already joined the collaboration.
CCIP 2.0 opens cross-chain channels, supporting institutional assets like stocks, funds, and commodities on-chain, with built-in compliance and regulatory controls.
This essentially builds a bridge for traditional financial assets to public blockchains.
It's a major step forward in the infrastructure for large-scale institutional capital going on-chain.
The institutionalization process in the RWA sector is accelerating. $BTC $LINK Bitcoin Weekly Analysis
Bitcoin rose 4% last week, closing at $84,445, its highest weekly close in 8 months and the second consecutive weekly close above the weekly MA 50.
So, how did Bitcoin rise from $57K to $87K?
BTC spent 11 weeks testing the weekly MA 200, using it as support. During this period, the MACD turned bullish, the RSI showed bullish divergence, and momentum began shifting to the bulls.
Then BTC broke through $67K and tested the weekly MA 50 over the next 4 weeks, with $75K acting as support.
Once Bitcoin finally closed above the weekly MA 50, another short squeeze pushed BTC above $86K.
Meanwhile, macro data is also improving:
- ISM reached 55.6, a 4-year high.
- The Russell 2000 index broke to new highs.
- Core inflation is trending toward a 5-year low.
Key levels:
- Support: Weekly MA 50 at $77,670 | Daily MA 200 at $71,100
- Resistance: $87K to $98K
Important events this week:
- ISM: Thursday
- Employment data: Friday $BTC $ETH 2026-9-28
Woke up, the overall market has gone down, as expected it still can't recover 85374... Looks like it will continue a 4h correction, pay attention to the lower range of 818-81350, the 4h bottom will be around 795 (there's also a chance the bottom forms near the 800 round number). The recent resistance levels have dropped to 830, 835.
If you're afraid of missing out, you can gradually increase your position, for example, if it reaches the right position, take 1/10 of the position, and at 82x taking 1/20 is also acceptable, just make sure to space out the additional buys (only add once every 2000 points or so).
In the end, the timing of the drop overlaps with 2024 😂, the same September 27, last time it kept falling until October 4, not sure how it will be this time.
For long-term short positions, 870-850 is not suitable for long-term shorts, both the time and price are too low, you can wait for the first bullish engulfing on the 4-hour chart, and after it retests the bottom and rises again, gradually exit the short positions.
I glanced at the 4 PM candlestick, the so-called "concentrated squeeze buying and selling of Bitcoin" only made a roughly 400-point wick, this is the actual volume of retail investors, how much weaker is it than expected?
Actually, today's overall performance is still okay, we are more resilient than gold, which is already pretty good, after falling a whole daily candle, let's see if it will first connect to a consolidation phase, the drop was a bit fast, this speed of correction won't last as long as until October 4.【What would you do when facing consecutive stop losses?】
The hardest part of a trend strategy is often not finding entry and exit points, but sticking to the rules during consecutive small losses.
I value these 4 disciplines more:
1. Do not add positions to average down, do not chase losses
2. Do not temporarily change signals due to a few losses
3. Maintain 1× isolated margin, do not add extra leverage
4. Set an acceptable copy trading amount and drawdown limit first
Low win-rate trend strategies usually rely on a few trending moves to cover multiple small losses, so "being able to endure the process" is more important than just looking at short-term returns.
If you hit 5 consecutive stop losses, would you choose:
A. Continue observing as planned
B. Reduce the copy trading amount
C. Pause and reassess
Leave A/B/C and your reasons in the comments. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
#AlgorithmicTrading #TrendTrading #ContractCopyTrading #TradingDiscipline$ETH
ETH rejected from ~$2,806 and is now ranging around $2,600–$2,700.
Capital is still flowing in despite clear headwinds, suggesting sentiment may be running ahead of reality.
If retail and short-term traders are driving the bid, downside risk increases as early holders take profits.
Short-term setups are fine, but chasing here looks risky.
Just my view. DYOR.
#ETHTests2500 #ETHStakingFlowsSplit Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$SOON price is relatively strong, with balanced active transactions: The main 15-minute K-line rose by 3.21%; in the 3 sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers account for 44.2% and buyers 55.8%; open interest decreased by 0.36%, open interest value changed by +1.98%, with quantity decreasing while value increased, indicating that valuation changes offset the contraction in quantity. The price shows an upward trend, active transactions do not show a clear one-sided bias, and the current strength is mainly reflected in the price performance.Bitcoin experienced four crashes of over 30% during its rise from $3.2K to $69K.
Before pumping from $15.6K to $126K, it went through four corrections of over 20%.
And do you think we will go straight from here to $200K?
There will be pullbacks, but they are buying opportunities before the next wave of gains.#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver: Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
$BTC is oscillating between 83,000 and 85,000 like an endless meat grinder. Those chasing the rally are stuck above 83,000 unable to move, while those waiting for a pullback watch 85,000 slip away helplessly, neither side gaining an advantage. The spot ETF has attracted nearly $3 billion in inflows over six consecutive days, institutional funds are clearly entering, yet the price seems nailed down. This divergence itself indicates the bulls and bears are so divided that neither can dominate. The longer the sideways consolidation lasts, the more violent the breakout will be.
$ETH is repeatedly tugging around 2,680, with selling pressure at 2,742 and buying support at 2,650. My short position at 2,712 remains untouched; I added a bit during the rally two days ago and reduced some on today's pullback, leaving the rest to sway with the wind. It's not that I don't want to exit, but until the range breaks, all the ups and downs are just probes; the bears haven't conceded, nor have the bulls given up.
$SOL, on the other hand, ignores the broader market, rising from 117 to 122, gaining three points. This kind of independently strong asset never cares about others' moves, but the stronger it rises, the harsher the retracement. I just watch from the sidelines without acting—after being whipped back and forth by a one-sided market several times, now the sideways range is roasting both bulls and bears on the fire. The worst in a volatile zone is repeatedly switching sides; just when it turns bullish, it gets smashed; just when it turns bearish, it rallies, and in the end, all the slippage and fees go to $BTC $ETH $ZEC The setup we have been tracking is becoming clearer. The U.S.–Iran standoff remains unresolved after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Talks are expected to continue, but the market is no longer pricing an easy resolution. Brent has pushed toward $108–110, while the U.S. 10Y is around 5.2%, the 30Y around 5.5%, and DXY near 101.15. Meanwhile, gold has dropped roughly 3% toward $4,156, its lowest level in more than seven weeks. Despite war risk, higher yielWhy did BTC drop again on Monday?
This round of decline looks more like a combination of macro pressure + profit-taking + leverage liquidation, rather than an ETF suddenly turning bearish.
After BTC surged above $87,000 last week but failed to hold, it fell back to around $83,000 on Monday. An important background factor is the continued rise in US Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, plus geopolitical risks, leading to an overall reduction in risk appetite.
Meanwhile, although ETFs still had net inflows, the pace clearly slowed: about $999 million on Monday last week, then gradually dropping to about $135 million by Friday. In other words, ETFs are still buying, but the short-term buying support is no longer as strong as in previous days.
After BTC broke below $84,000, it triggered some long stop-losses and leverage liquidations, further amplifying the decline.
So this time it looks more like:
$87K failed rally → profit-taking → ETF buying cools down → macro risk appetite declines → leveraged longs get liquidated.
Currently, the $82.7K–83K range is quite critical. Holding this level is closer to a post-rally consolidation shakeout; if it breaks down effectively, the market may look for liquidity at lower levels again.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto#ZEC hits a new high in this cycle, approaching $1700
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The core logic behind ZEC's new high in this cycle (approaching $1700) is the opening of institutional compliance access + the narrative of "privacy version of Bitcoin" + governance benefits landing + a short squeeze resonance.
Institutional capital entry is the most critical variable. Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF was listed on NYSE Arca on August 25, holding nearly 600,000 ZEC by mid-September, accounting for 3.52% of the circulating supply. This is the first time a privacy coin has gained a convenient US-compliant exposure channel, allowing traditional funds to buy without managing private keys.
On the narrative side, ZEC has been repackaged as a "privacy supplement to Bitcoin": retaining the 21 million cap and halving mechanism while offering optional privacy. Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly disclosed his holdings, calling it "Bitcoin's privacy complement," directly catalyzing a sharp rally.
Governance benefits were released in concentration. In the NU7 vote ending on September 14, 99.9% supported shortening the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 98.9% supported retaining the Bitcoin-style halving. The roadmap clearly strengthens scarcity expectations.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 12
Today the account is 49.96, today -15.74 (-23.95%).
Today I had three trades, I'll report them one by one:
$ONE long position closed, +0.86 (+13.11%). I said yesterday "If it breaks down, I leave; if it rises, I accept it." Today it rose, so I closed according to the rule, locking in 13.11% profit.
$GRT 20x long position, stop loss triggered, -2.74 (-66.14%). This trade is the one I should review the most today.
$AKE opened a 5x long position at 0.0294, still holding it now.
Putting these three trades together, one comparison is especially striking: both are long positions,
$ONE made 13.11% with 5x leverage
$GRT lost 66.14% with 20x leverage. My directional judgment wasn’t far off; the only difference was the leverage. 20x magnified a normal fluctuation into a 66% loss.
I don’t want to talk about new principles today. In this past month, I went from 2335 down to a few dozen. I can explain every loss, but explaining and doing are separated by my own hands. I can’t control the market, the only thing I can control is the number I press before opening a position.
I’m still holding the $AKE trade, stop loss is set, will see the result tomorrow.
Let’s discuss in the comments: at this position for $GRT, do you think it’s a buying opportunity or will it drop further?
Always use stop loss, low leverage, position management, all holdings and funds fully disclosed. For reference only, not investment advice. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 I stared at the number 84% for a long time.
Let me ask: Why do wallets sanctioned in Iran particularly prefer to use USDT?
Another question: Is USDT dirtier, or do other stablecoins simply not dare to take on this business?
A third question: Who exactly does the US Senate report want to target?
Let me answer myself.
It's not that USDT is dirty. It's just that it has the largest market and best liquidity, so those under sanctions wanting to bypass restrictions can only choose the thickest route.
I think this matter affects market sentiment more than price. It won't cause a crash in the short term.
But one thing to watch — the report specifically names Tether, not some small coin. If regulators really take action later, it will be on the compliance front for stablecoins.
My guess: hearings or fines targeting stablecoins are very likely to come next. If not this week, then next quarter.
$BTC should move on, USDT should be used, but don’t read this as a positive.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 $BTC $USDT $BTC $ETH $SOL
Today, small-cap coins have opportunities, but it is a "structural rotation," not a broad rally. Funds are spreading from Bitcoin to some altcoins, but chasing highs amid a weak market carries significant risk.
Rotation signals are clear:
· Altcoin season index rebounds: has risen to 64, with funds rotating and spreading to mid-cap assets like IMX, SEI.
· Capital outflow: Bitcoin's market dominance has dropped to 53.8% and continues to decline, while the sentiment index has rebounded to 74 "Greed." Historical patterns show this combination often accompanies capital spreading into non-BTC areas.
· Technical support: 87% of Binance-listed altcoins have risen above the 200-day moving average, Total2 has increased by over $371 billion since June, indicating a clear market structure recovery.
Relatively active directions today:
· AI and infrastructure: NEAR up over 9%, weekly gain over 80%; SUI up 7.6%, with AI and ETF expectations as main drivers.
· RWA sector: overall up 4.24%, ONDO up over 6%, SKY up over 4%.
· Individual anomalies: SOON surged over 31% in one day, PUMP up over 16%, but chasing these rapid gains carries very high risk.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:META】
Monitored address 0x45f5 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 742.22 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 178,122.53 USD
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned approximately 747 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +0.68% Everyone is advising me to run first, but this time I actually want to wait a bit longer.
BTC just pulled back from the previous high area and is currently retesting around $83K; ETH has also returned to around $2,650. The market has clearly entered a high volatility phase in the short term. Meanwhile, there are important data releases this week like core PCE and employment, and macro news may continue to amplify volatility.
Brothers, if I exit these two positions now, many times in the past I probably wouldn’t have gotten the final outcome at all.
So this time I’m only looking at two results:
Either the market wipes out the position,
Or wait for BTC to challenge above $87K again and ETH to retest $2,800.
Of course, position size and risk must still be controlled by yourself; the market never guarantees results just because someone is determined.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Crypto vs. U.S. Stocks
Core Data Comparison
· Volatility Multiple: Bitcoin's annualized volatility is about 42%, nearly 4 times that of the S&P 500 (around 10-15%). It has experienced multiple deep drawdowns of over 70%, while major U.S. stock indices rarely see such levels of decline.
· Retail-Driven: The crypto market has long relied on retail speculation as its main demand driver. When retail funds flow into U.S. stocks, the upward momentum in crypto weakens noticeably, and price movements become more unstable.
But note two new changes
· Volatility is Converging: Bitcoin's volatility in this cycle has dropped to about 40 (previous cycle 60, cycle before that 80), with institutional entry stabilizing its movement during certain periods. This year, BTC volatility has even fallen below that of the Nasdaq at times.
· "Stability" Does Not Equal "Safety": U.S. stocks have vulnerabilities too. The relative volatility of Nasdaq tech stocks is currently at a high since the internet bubble, and the AI sector carries extremely high risk premiums.
Summary: If you seek relatively stable price trends, U.S. stocks (especially broad-based indices) are indeed steadier. Crypto's high volatility means potential for high returns but also comes with more severe drawdown risks.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Yushu has finally returned to around 69. It was really tough when it was at 76 before, and now I can finally breathe a sigh of relief 😮💨. I opened a short at 68.05, and at the time of the screenshot it was 69.06, with a single contract floating profit and loss rate of -29.68%, and the position is still open. However, being close to cost does not mean the loss has been recovered, so don’t celebrate too early.
I am bearish and still worried whether the hype can turn into sustained demand. Yushu also warned in its previous prospectus that short-term demand such as robot leasing may cool down, which could transmit upstream and trigger price competition. This is a risk disclosed by the company, not a confirmed significant drop in orders.
I think what’s more worth questioning than "how many units the manufacturer sold again" is whether the buyers actually made money. Taking leasing customers as an example, they contributed to the manufacturer’s sales when buying machines, but whether they continue to get jobs afterward determines if they are willing to buy a second batch. If the first round of procurement relied on novelty, the repurchase afterward cannot be expected to increase at the same speed as the first round. Conversely, if customers can really use the machines and continuously generate income, my concern should be lowered.
So what I doubt is the sustainability of demand, not whether the robots have technical content. Nor should we declare that all these concerns have been fully realized just because the contract has fallen back from around 76—the price temporarily moving in the direction I want does not mean the market has endorsed my entire set of judgments. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 UNI at $9, are you chasing it?
UNI surged from 2.4 to 10.9, doubling in 30 days, then dropped back to 9.0 in one day—are you still asking if you should chase? The whales have already placed buy orders at 8.5.
First glance: positive news bombardment, but the price stopped rising.
Flat over the past 7 days, still +70% to double in 30 days, market cap at 5.5 billion, 24-hour drop of 8-11%, retreating from 9.80-10.20. Daily chart shows a pullback from overbought, 4-hour chart bearish, volume contracted from the huge spike on the 23rd. All indicators are signaling one thing: a retracement after a rally, not a fresh start.
First thing: UNIfication is implemented, the protocol starts "accounting" for the token.
Fee switch opens in December 2025, v2/v3 fees go into TokenJar, Firepit uses UNI to buy and burn tokens, initially burning 100 million from the treasury. Proposal 100 expands to v4 in July 2026, covering ETH, Arbitrum, Base, BNB, Polygon, OP, Robinhood Chain. Daily protocol revenue rises from 110k to 320k, annualized buyback and burn market estimate from 90 million to 250 million.
Sounds impressive? Here's the harsh truth:
Token holders get no dividends, only deflationary burns. The revenue relative to the 5.5 billion market cap can't support a "cash cow" valuation. $9 is already pricing in "accelerated burns + RWA volume growth."
Burning isn't dividends, but it's harsher—it turns every transaction into a punishment for shorts.
Second thing: tokenized securities narrative, UNI becomes the "RWA transaction tax."
Around September 17, SEC innovation exemption, tokenized US stocks gain an AMM window; Uniswap on Robinhood Chain contributes significant protocol revenue; BlackRock BUIDL takes over UniswapX. The market treats UNI as the "RWA transaction tax" asset.
But short-term catalysts have partially played out—UNI surged to 10.9 on September 22-23, then continuously retraced. BTC weakened on Monday, UNI as a high-beta DeFi token followed down more sharply.
You think you're buying a DeFi leader, but you're actually betting on RWA volume growth—if you're right, you get a VIP; if wrong, you get the grunt work.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously.
From the June low of 2.4, to 4.4 at the end of August, accelerating from 6-7 to 10.9 in mid-September, now retesting 9.00. More than 4x gain.
But don't forget—9.60-9.80 is today's lost midline, 10.20-10.90 is the current supply zone. Only a solid break above 11 opens talk of 12-13.
9.00 is a psychological integer level, not a bargain. Holding 8.50 means the main uptrend is just resting; daily close below 8.50 means short-term deep retracement.
$9 is not the bottom, it's halfway up the mountain. You think you're bottom-fishing, but you're actually carrying the bags for the whales.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On the bullish side:
UNIfication implemented, deflationary burns, protocol starts "accounting"
RWA narrative + SEC innovation exemption, institutional entry path opens
30-day doubling, weekly structure intact
Burn volume grows with trading volume, strong long-term deflation logic
On the bearish side:
Token holders get no dividends, revenue can't support 5.5 billion market cap
If BTC breaks 82,000, UNI will drop first
Huge resistance in 9.60-10.90 supply zone
New scenario contributions concentrated, structure not diversified enough
Key level 9.00, only 0.5 away from the death line at 8.50.
Resistance above: 9.60-9.80 → 10.20-10.90 → 11+ (only above 11 to talk 12-13)
Support below: 8.70-8.80 → 8.50 (platform lower edge) → 7.80-8.00 → 6.50-7.00
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 9.00, stop loss at 8.48. First target 9.60, second target 10.20. Reduce half at 9.60. Don't heavy up; chasing here means you can't hold through a pullback.
Conservative:
Wait for 8.50-8.80 to consider going long, stop loss at 7.90. Better entry is 7.60-8.00; if not reached, take a small position.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing the second leg if volume supports a firm break above 11.00 and pullback holds above 10.20. Fake breakouts should be abandoned.
Bearish:
Currently, quiet shorts risk being squeezed by burn/RWA news. Only consider reversing if daily close is below 8.50 with volume, targets at 8.00 and 7.60.
Position sizing: single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage recommended 3-5x.
Risk management priority:
If BTC breaks 82,000 and accelerates down, reduce UNI first.
Watch protocol daily revenue and burn pace relative to price; if revenue drops but price stays above 9, valuation is overstretched.
If 8.50 repeatedly fakes a breakout then breaks down, don't stubbornly hold the integer level.
UNI now is like itself in 2021—
99% thought "DeFi is dead," but once fee switch opened and burns started, price surged from 2.4 to 10.9.
The day it breaks 11, you'll realize:
It's not that UNI can't perform, it's that you couldn't hold it.
$BTC $ETH $UNI When $BTC leads the decline, market makers are actually narrowing the bid-ask spread. They don't predict direction; they profit from the spread and funding fees within the volatility.
When the decline is initiated by $BTC, altcoin buy orders will withdraw first. $SNDK dropped two points before the market opened, indicating that the order book depth has already thinned, and market makers are actively reducing inventory risk.
On the derivatives side, if the funding rate continues to be negative, it means shorts are paying to hold positions. This confirms selling pressure more reliably than the price itself.
Watch the spot trading volume in the first hour after the U.S. stock market opens tonight. If volume surges but the decline is not recovered, this adjustment is not about sentiment but about position rotation.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 $BTC $SNDK There is a data point about SOL this time that is more worth noting than simply looking at how many points it has risen.
Last Friday, the US spot SOL ETF had a net inflow of about $86.7 million in one day.
This was the highest single day since these products were launched.
Over the week, the SOL ETF accumulated inflows of about $188 million.
More notably:
The total assets of these funds increased from about $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion in one week.
This is not the same concept as "how much SOL rose today."
The price can fluctuate greatly in one day due to sentiment.
But the continuous growth of the ETF size indicates that more money is indeed accessing SOL through traditional financial channels.
Of course, money flowing into the ETF does not necessarily mean the coin price must rise.
But if you want to judge whether a coin has truly attracted capital recently, I think this kind of data is much more reliable than people shouting "take off" in the comment section.
#SOL #Solana #ETF #crypto