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$ETH dropped to 2,633, and for a moment it looked like the next leg down was inevitable. Then one aggressive candle sent it straight back toward 2,685. That single rebound completely trapped my short. I entered at 2,660.56. Current mark price: 2,684.90. Floating loss: -91%. Only around $26 of margin is left. Liquidation price: 2,787. The frustrating part? I checked the latest market developments, and the picture didn't exactly make me feel better. Spot ETF flows remained strong, institutional BTWhy does the negotiation over the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran feel more and more like Rashomon? The Pharaoh directly said that Iran said, "If you loosen your grip, I'll open the strait in 7 days," while the US said, "I'm not in a hurry, let's just wait it out." Both sides are talking past each other, and before the dishes on the negotiation table are fully served, the chopsticks have already started clashing. First, let's look at the conditions Iran proposed. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi conveyed a "7-day plan" to the US through Qatar during the UN General Assembly — the US would first lift the maritime blockade and stop military pressure, and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. Araghchi emphasized that these conditions are not new demands but were promised by the US itself in the June memorandum of understanding, and Iran "will never back down." But Trump outright rejected it. On the 26th, Trump said the US fully controls the Strait of Hormuz, with a large amount of oil flowing out, and the US is "not in a hurry to achieve results." US officials added that nearly 40 million barrels of oil have passed through the strait under US escort in the past 48 hours. Translated into plain language: whether you open the strait or not, we can get through, so why should I agree to your conditions? The market reaction was very honest. Once Iran's proposal came out, oil prices plunged late at night, with WTI dropping 2.33% to $92.41 and Brent falling 2.14% to $104.32. But after the US rejected the plan over the weekend, oil prices were pulled back to a relatively strong range, with Brent rising above $106 at one point. On the Bitcoin side, when positive signals about the US-Iran talks emerged on September 23, Bitcoin hovered around 87,200 without moving, completely missing that cooling-off trend.9.28 Market View: $BTC closed above the May high, keeping the technical structure bullish. But with price less than 1% away from the high, the market is basically moving sideways rather than pushing higher. Historically, after reclaiming the 50-week moving average, BTC has often delivered gains of roughly 20%–30% over the following 1–2 weeks, as seen in 2019 and 2023. This time, however, the follow-through has been noticeably weaker. Seasonal Q4 weakness and persistently rising Treasury yields rJust closed out another batch of positions, and the results are a perfect reminder of how quickly leveraged trading can turn against you. 🟢 ZEC Short — 4x Isolated Entry: 1,642.8 Exit: 1,635.4 Profit: +41.76 USDT A small move in the right direction, with limited exposure. 🔴 ETH Long — 25x Entry: 2,671.35 Stopped out: -1,426.80 USDT 🔴 SNDK Long — 8x Entry: 1,804.6 Realized loss: -2,965.40 USDT One winner. Two losers. And the losses were many times larger than the win. That’s the part people ofGreed sentiment heats up, so why does $ONE, which surged the most, have a negative funding rate?
The answer lies in the long-short game: ONE current price is 0.002483, up 11.49% in 24h, but the funding rate is -0.2140%, indicating crowded shorts on the contract side and longs holding the funding rate advantage. The price rise is driven by shorts being forced to cover. However, MA5=0.002488 is still below MA20=0.00260585, RSI=49.3 is in the neutral zone, MACD histogram is negative, and the upper Bollinger band at 0.00287076 has not been reclaimed, so the direction is not fully confirmed. The Fear and Greed Index at 74 is in the greed zone, with a 30-candle amplitude as high as 35.16%, significantly increasing the risk of spikes and liquidations.
Operationally, a pullback long strategy is preferred: entry reference at 0.002400–0.002440, near the lower Bollinger band at 0.00234094 and below MA5 support zone; take profit 1 at 0.002600, corresponding to MA20 resistance and previous dense trading area; take profit 2 at 0.002850, approaching the upper Bollinger band; stop loss set at 0.002320, breaking below the lower Bollinger band would invalidate the long structure. The short squeeze logic under negative funding rate still holds, but beware of high-level spikes causing stop losses.
Also watch: $SUI, $QI, among which $SUI is weaker and $QI has greater volatility, both relatively weaker than $ONE.Alright, let's see what's brewing on $ZEC #ZECUSDT.P 15m 🧐
- My bias on this timeframe is bearish — this is a counter-trend pullback against the bullish daily, weekly, and BTC structure, so I will only participate when there is a clear rejection and a shift on lower timeframes, rather than blindly chasing
- I expect the price to first hit 1524.46 / 1514.16, then if sellers remain in control, it will continue to reach the 1495 and 1471 areas
- Entry zone is a failed reclaim/rejection of 1537–1555 (or touching 1564.33 but failing to hold)
- Before entry, wait for a pin bar or bearish engulfing pattern at supply, a 5m market structure shift downward, or an immediate sell after liquidity sweep of the 1539.69 swing low — active buy/sell flow is biased to sellers, supporting this interpretation
- Take profits sequentially at: 1524.46, then 1514.16, then 1495
- Set protection beyond the structure flip, not at a fixed tick level
- Closing price above 1599.24 will flip this 15m bias to bullish and invalidate the short idea At this point, this isn't trading anymore. I'm just helping the exchange pay its electricity bill. 🐸 $ZEC — 50x Full Long Entry: ~$1,602 Current: ~$1,575 Floating P&L: -32.55U ROE: -82.59% $ZEC had already made me money before, so I thought we'd built some kind of trust. Apparently, I was wrong. I went long again and now I'm watching the position slowly beat me up. I thought it was a love story. Turns out it was a very expensive lesson. 💀 🐕 $RAY — 10x Full Short Entry: ~$1.95 Current: ~$2.16 Brothers, $BTC might be on a roller coaster this week.
PCE + Nonfarm payrolls, two bombs dropping one after another.
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonfarmAndPCEKeyData
Right now, the market is most conflicted about whether there will be further rate hikes in October. There have been various hawkish voices earlier, and market expectations have been swinging back and forth.
But I’m actually not that worried now.
Because I already opened a short position tonight.
Bitcoin just surged to around 83,800, trying to break higher, but I shorted it immediately.
Now it’s back near 82,900, and the short position is starting to show profit.
This time I’m not planning to run after a few minutes; I’ll hold for at least two days and see if 80,000 can be broken.
Of course, shorting during data week isn’t without risk.
If PCE cools down significantly and the market re-trades easing expectations, Bitcoin could suddenly spike up at any time.
So my current thought is:
Don’t guess the data, just take the position first and wait for the market to give the answer.
Cut losses if wrong, hold if right.
After all, in this kind of market, the most frustrating thing isn’t the drop, but when you just shorted and it rallies, or you just cut losses and it falls again.
BTC already gave me one chance tonight.
Next, let’s see if it can continue downward.
Keep holding shorts near 82,900, target below 80,000.
Brothers, are you in the short camp now, or are you waiting to buy the dip?
Let’s chat in the comments. $ZEC is not suitable for long-term shorting, just short for a short time and run, it should be hard to go down in a short period, starting to grind tofu again, the 1500 support is very strong昨天因为止损，亏了超过 1000元，结果今天价格反而继续拉升接近 10%。这种“刚止损就上涨”的经历，很容易让人产生强烈的不甘，甚至想马上把亏损赚回来。 但冷静下来想想，亏损之后因为情绪而加仓、梭哈，往往只会让风险进一步放大。 现在我更想做的不是和市场赌气，而是重新审视自己的交易计划：仓位、止损、入场逻辑，以及如果判断再次错误，我能承受多大的损失。 📌 市场不会因为一次止损就证明方向错了，也不会因为价格随后上涨就证明止损一定错误。 这次先把情绪放下来。输赢不是靠一次重仓决定的，真正重要的是不要让一次亏损变成更大的失控。 #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus #ONE #Crypto #TradingCumulative P&L is now around -¥34,400. Four straight losing days. And somehow, every day has been worse than the previous one. $BTC $ETH On September 27, Bitcoin spent most of the day moving sideways around $84K. The 24-hour change was barely +0.14%, with volatility staying below 1%. Ethereum was similar, hovering near $2,700, with only around +0.45% over 24 hours. From the outside, the market looked completely calm. Underneath? Absolute chaos. Around 66,000 traders were liquidated over the prevThe macro theme this week is still somewhat complex. For many friends who may not have the patience to read through, I'll simplify it: just focus on two factors, Brent price and the probability of a rate hike in October. Brent determines inflation expectations and the probability of an October rate hike, so different price ranges of Brent bring different effects to the market, which in turn affect the probability of an October rate hike differently. Regarding the October rate hike probability, the market reacts differently to different probabilities, and the pricing methods also vary, so just pay attention to these two sets of data. Brent: #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Above $100, the market trades energy inflation risk. In the $95-$100 range, risk gradually eases, entering a cautious phase. In the $90-$95 range, the risk of a second rate hike gradually alleviates (October rate hike probability weakens). In the $85-$90 range, the energy inflation logic reverses, and inflation logic returns to endogenous economic inflation. Below $85, if endogenous inflation does not rebound, the market begins to turn optimistic, shedding inflation concerns. CME October rate hike probability: ≤50%, the market is in an uncertainty phase. ≥50%-60%, the market starts to pay attention to rate hike risk. ≥60%, the market begins active pricing, and some assets start defensive adjustments due to rate hikes. ≥70%, pricing moves from defensive to active hedging, rate hike pricing becomes more evident. ≥80%, close to locking in the rate hike, the market will fully price in the October rate hike. >90%, rate hike locked in, moving from trading expectations to full pricing, risk markets under pressure, with the benefit being the rate hike.Making money often comes down to: patience + risk-reward ratio + courage.
There is massive liquidation around $BTC 82000
There is massive liquidation around $ETH 2610
Based on the current trend, it's almost 100% certain that these liquidities will be liquidated.
Only then will a new round of rally be triggered, so I’m temporarily not opening new positions and will look to enter near the liquidity liquidation points.
Generally, after liquidity is liquidated, the trend will follow through with a downward move, so avoid placing orders near these values; I will choose to enter near BTC 80xxx and ETH 25xx.
From my experience, here the longs get liquidated, longs turn into sell orders, and after the downtrend completes, there are institutions specifically absorbing this liquidation liquidity, so a counter-trend rebound will occur.
If it rebounds here, the bull market will not end prematurely.Yesterday, the group was still panicking: "Banks can't withstand the run."
"Just afraid the money can't be withdrawn," "It's all over."
Someone even boldly said: Withdraw $BTC from the chain within 30 minutes, and I'll pay you $100.
Today, once BG opened withdrawals, group members received their withdrawals within 30 minutes.
The big brother didn't hesitate and sent 100U directly.
This wave of trust is maxed out!
The crypto world doesn't lack slogans, it lacks people who deliver on their words!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Wall Street just opened another door for the crypto market. CME Group has announced plans to bring Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures to its derivatives platform, with the launch targeted for October 19, subject to regulatory approval. The contract structure is also worth watching: 🔹 BCH: 250 BCH standard / 25 BCH Micro 🔹 UNI: 10,000 UNI standard / 1,000 UNI Micro 🔹 Block trades supported across all four contracts And the market reacted immediately. $BCH jumped from roughly $270 toward $350, gaToo long, can't hold anymore
Short position profits taken
$ZEC entered at 1608, closed at 1534, pocketed $2100
Support below at 1515-1525 range
If it breaks down, watch 1480, just wait quietly
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC has closed above the May high, keeping the technical structure bullish. But price is still less than 1% from the high — almost standing still. Historically, after reclaiming the 50-week moving average,$BTC saw strong follow-through in periods like 2019 and 2023. This time, however, the move has been noticeably slower. Seasonal weakness and rising yields remain key concerns. I previously expected Q4 to bring more weakness, but BTC’s continued resilience has made me reconsider that view. Goi🚨 ETH REALLY SAID: “YOU SHORTED? WATCH THIS.” 😭
ETH dropped to $2,633 and I thought, “Finally… this thing is going lower.”
So I shorted $2,660.56.
Then ETH suddenly V-shaped straight back to $2,684. 💀
Now I’m sitting at -91% floating loss, with only $26 margin left and liquidation around $2,787.
The market really waits until you enter… then decides to do the exact opposite. 😂
And the frustrating part?
BTC also bounced from $82,561 → $83,424.
#DailyOrbit On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the South Korean stock market plunged sharply, with the KOSPI index dropping 2.7% to close at 6889.74, erasing all gains from the past four trading days in a single day and falling below the 7000 mark. Samsung Electronics plummeted 5.43%, and SK Hynix fell 5.05%.
Foreign and institutional investors simultaneously exited massively, selling over 40 trillion KRW in a single day, equivalent to more than 3 billion USD withdrawn from the South Korean semiconductor sector. Previously, the AI chip sector had been continuously strong, but today saw concentrated profit-taking.
The core cause is the renewed rise in U.S. Treasury yields. In a high-interest-rate environment, the market has begun to reassess the high valuations of the AI sector. Coupled with delivery delays in Oracle's data center construction due to power issues, the market has lowered AI capital expenditure expectations, cooling demand forecasts for memory chips and triggering a global tech stock valuation reappraisal.
For the crypto market, South Korea is a highly active market for crypto trading. The sharp drop in Korean stocks will dampen local retail investors' risk appetite and has an emotional transmission effect, suppressing risk assets in the short term. However, this decline originates from overseas tech sectors rather than a deterioration in the crypto industry's fundamentals, so the impact on the crypto community is a short-term emotional disturbance. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 $BTC and $ETH are still falling!!
This round of correction might really be real
The recent rebound almost scared me into stop-lossing
I was thinking how could it possibly drop so fast and be done
Sure enough, BTC has broken 83,000 again now
Now my BTC short position is only 1,500 dollars away from break-even
ETH short position is only 60 dollars away from break-even
If luck is on my side, I should be able to break even by tomorrow morning
After enduring so many days, I finally see the dawn of victory
This wave, BTC will first see 79,000, ETH will see 2550
These two levels are also my closing positions
I understand the market less and less now, so I’m not greedy
If I make a profit, I’ll leave, to avoid suddenly being wiped out by a big rebound again.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Just pulled up the NMR/USDT 1h candlestick chart for a quick look, $NMR is shooting up like a rocket, rising 16.7% to 11.305 with only 1.8M volume. With such a sharp move on this volume, I'm hesitant to chase; I'd rather watch the show. $ALGO is also strong, up 13% to 0.13146 with 6.6M volume, which is more solid than NMR. $OL and $RAY are suffering, down 11.32% and 11.12% respectively. My small $RAY position is glowing green in the red now; brother, I’m paying tuition again on this wave. Watching the market all day will really strain your eyes, so let me be practical. We have three main strategies for position management. First is the Kelly formula, which basically calculates how much to bet based on your win rate and odds, but in practice, I never go full Kelly—too aggressive. I usually go 30% or even 20% of that because we’re not machines and our mindset can break. Second is fixed ratio; I now risk at most 2% of my capital per trade, so losses don’t hurt much and gains don’t make me overconfident. I used to be stubborn and go all in, but $OL, a small cap, taught me a lesson with 232.8K volume—I couldn’t escape. Third is pyramiding, adding only when the direction is right, and adding less each time. #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Can quantum computing crack Bitcoin? Ledger's CTO directly slammed that idea.
He said the algorithm claiming "only 30% of $BTC is at quantum risk" is pure nonsense.
That 30.2% from Glassnode only refers to coins that have never moved on-chain. But your wallet backups, device logs, and even the few seconds when a transaction is sent but not yet confirmed—your public key has already been exposed.
Google's data is even more brutal—if such a machine were truly built, it would take only 9 minutes to break one address.
My first reaction after hearing this was: this isn't a technical discussion, it's a pitch for hardware wallets.
But on the other hand, the vulnerability he mentioned does exist.
My guess is that the quantum threat won't materialize in the short term, but the concept of "quantum resistance" will definitely be hyped in the next bull market.
No need to rush to change wallets yet, but don't treat this as a joke either.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC This ZHIPU position, 10x full margin long, opened at 92.72, now the mark price is 78.37. Floating loss of 63.85U, return rate -154.75%. I stare at this number with no emotional fluctuation, even a bit amused. Liquidation price is 26.94, maintenance margin rate 703%. I lie here like a vegetable, watching it drop bit by bit, too lazy to even lift a finger to close the position.Today the market is all red again. BTC dropped one or two points, SOL and OKB fell more than three points, and even gold, usually used as a safe haven, dropped over three points. The entire market is down, with no one holding up.
Why is this happening? The core reason is simple: this week is data week. PCE and non-farm payrolls are about to be released consecutively, US Treasury yields remain high, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations are suffocating everyone. Funds are afraid of data shocks and are preemptively reducing positions to hedge risks. Notice that even gold is plunging this time, which indicates the market is not playing "safe-haven rotation"; liquidity is purely contracting, and funds are unconditionally withdrawing.
But there's an interesting detail in today's market. Usually, ETH falls the hardest and most recklessly when the market drops, but today its decline is smaller than BTC's. Why? Because recently institutional funds have been supporting ETH, with spot ETFs seeing net inflows for several consecutive days, plus the expectation of a mainnet upgrade in October providing a floor. This gives ETH some emotional cushioning and a slightly firmer performance. But don't think it's independent; when the macro hammer falls, this bit of good news won't hold for long.
The strategy is simple: data week is survival week. Hold spot positions firmly, and unload short-term leverage when necessary. Don't bet on the data; even if you guess the direction right, you might get stopped out by spikes. Wait for the PCE and employment data to land and market sentiment to stabilize before picking up discounted chips. Preserving principal is more important than anything. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 @OKX星球 📊 9.28 BTC High: Watching the Weekly Chart Above the previous high, technically still strong, but less than 1% from the historical high, the price has yet to break through significantly. In the past, after similar breakouts, the market often saw strong continuations, but this rally was clearly more restrained. On one side, BTC maintained its strength; on the other, US Treasury yields were rising and seasonal pressure was underway. Previously, I favored a weaker Q4 trend, but now I need to reconsider this assessment. Is the high-level sideways movement a way to build strength, or is the trend starting to change? Next, focus on weekly structure and key data: Nonfarm Payrolls + PCE 🔥 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据Currently, the account assets have reached 450U
Held a position loss of 60U, originally thought the US stock market would rebound tonight, but the timing was bad and got stuck.
If it continues to fall tomorrow morning, will cut losses directly.
Current positions:
$ONDO long 0.5325, 20U position with 50x leverage
Currently floating loss of 38U
$LINK long 14.45, 20U position with 50x leverage
Currently floating loss of 21U
Starting to do T trading to make up for the position loss!!!
#创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $87.07
▪ Transaction amount this time: $483,689.23
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $179,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +7.70% The Alpenglow narrative is getting attention, but there’s an important update: reports of a September 28 Solana mainnet launch appear to be incorrect. 👀
That makes it important to separate confirmed development progress from market rumors.
$SOL remains strong after its major recovery, but catalysts should be verified before trading the headline.
#HormuzTermsInFocus $BTC $ETH Luckily, I ran on the mountaintop just now, otherwise all the profits would have been given back!
I went all in when $ETH dipped to 2633, opened ETH 100x at 2639, and BTC 30x at 82958.
Watching the 15-minute chart, it surged to 2697 then started to stall, MACD red bars clearly shrinking, felt something was off, decisively closed ETH at 2688, and BTC exited at 83450.
Looking at the history (m), ETH gained 179% in this wave, pocketed 60U; BTC steadily gained 15%, took 4U.
Now looking back at chart 1, the price has dropped back to 2654, breaking below the Bollinger middle band, MACD green bars just appearing, DIFF and DEA turning down at a high level, clearly weakening in the short term.
If I had been greedy and not exited just now, all these profits would definitely have been given back, maybe even a loss.
$BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Brothers, just came across some big news, gotta share it with you all quickly!
This guy Lee Goon Wang just made a major move, placing a limit sell order for 15,000 $ZEC, worth about 23 million USD! And that’s not all—the weirdest part is, he set the price 30 dollars lower than the market price, which is roughly a 2% discount.
Isn’t this move a bit unusual? Normally, if you’re holding tens of millions in assets, you’d sell slowly bit by bit to avoid causing a stampede, right? But this guy just slammed a limit order 2% below market price, basically saying, "I’m in a hurry to cash out, I’ll take a discount, whoever wants it can have it."
Did he hear some insider info in advance, worried he won’t be able to get out later? After all, ZEC usually has big price swings, and once a whale starts dumping at a discount like this, the selling pressure on the market will definitely be huge. Retail investors are probably sweating bullets again.Recently, $SOON's market heat has clearly increased, showing strong altcoin trading characteristics. Going long on coins in a bull market does not mean you must chase immediately after buying; what truly matters is whether funds continue to flow in and whether there can be volume and price support after the rise. 📊 If the daily chart shows a rapid downward test with a clear lower shadow, there may still be some trading heat the next day, but any short-term positioning should set risk boundaries in advance, rather than waiting for a market reversal before deciding to stop losses. 🔥 "Short squeezing" in bull markets is not uncommon. Previously, $ONE, $AKE, and other trends have seen similar phenomena: rising prices attract some short-selling funds, while accumulated short positions may become liquidity sources for further market rallies. Once the price triggers liquidation, bears are forced to cover back, further driving prices higher and creating a continuous short-term squeeze effect. ⚠️ So, being bearish is fine, but shorting in a strong trend requires extra caution. Especially when the price immediately makes you uncomfortable after entering, it often indicates the timing of entry needs to be reconsidered. $ZEC's previous performance also demonstrated the huge volatility that short-term squeezes can bring. In the end, the market rarely rewards stubbornness, but rather those who can follow the trend, control positions, and promptly acknowledge that adjustments are needed. 📅 Next, the market will also focus on key data such as US non-farm payrolls and PCE. With Micron's earnings report approaching, AI and storage demand may also become variables for tech asset and risk markets. Don't chase highs or overweight—first look at fundsConclusion first: NMR didn't just have a small rise today; after three days of sideways movement, a single 4H bullish candle broke through the top of the range.
From 9-25 to the morning of 9-28, NMR hovered between 9.6–9.8 for a full three days, with 18 consecutive 4H candles all within the range. The 4H candle at 16:00 on 9-28 opened at 9.80, surged to 11.79, and closed at 11.20, a single candle gain of +14.3%, directly leaving the top of the range behind.
Some numbers to consider together:
• 24h increase +15.7%, volume ~$12M
• Funding rate -0.11% (shorts pay longs), not driven by retail FOMO
• Median of the market -4.8%, 240 coins are down, it’s moving against the trend
The slightly negative funding rate indicates the rise isn't driven by chasing longs. But if the 4H candle can't hold above the 11.92 high, short-term pullback to around 10.6 should be expected. Do you think 11 is the start of the rise or just a consolidation point? BTC volume has returned but is still dropping, first watch if 82557 can hold.
Yesterday opened at 84156, highest 85200, lowest 83818, closed at 84465, volume 283 million. Today opened at 84465, highest 85000, lowest 82557, current price around 82965. Volume 562 million, increased compared to yesterday.
Resistance above is between 82965–85000, further up 85200 and 87399 are heavier resistance. Support first at 82557, if broken easily look at 82875, Thursday's low has already been broken.
Don't chase 85000 in the short term. For those already holding, watch if 82557 can hold; if not, reduce a bit. Volume has returned, but if 85200 can't hold, reduce a bit first, then wait for the European and American sessions to see if 82965 can hold. $BTC I opened my phone and saw $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC all sliding together. The whole crypto market is looking red today. Then I checked my $ZEC position and almost laughed at myself: • ZEC price: $1,551 • Short entry: $909 • Floating P&L: -706% • Loss: -128U • Remaining margin: 31U • Liquidation price: $1,914 A few days ago I was sitting at around -826%, so technically… at least the situation hasn't become even worse. 💀 But today's point isn't to tell everyone to stubbornly hold a position. It's the Today $XLM was squeezed +2.19% | The sentiment is set to short $XLM. Today's squeeze is purely market-driven. Current price $0.2177, the strategy is to take profit first: 5x leverage short, place staggered short orders in the $0.2240 to $0.2280 range, stop loss at $0.2325, first target $0.2140, second target $0.2070, position size kept under 10%. Why short? Yesterday's massive 13.46 million USDT hourly candle pushed the price from $0.2124 straight up to $0.23064, a new weekly high, but the following three hourly candles gradually fell back, erasing all gains, closing at only $0.2177. The price was pulled up but failed to hold; this is not a breakout, it's like lifting you up to see the mountain peak and then putting you back at the foot of the mountain. The bulls' charge this time was grandiose like a royal procession, but the outcome was the same: a counterattack. Looking at $XLM's weekly candlesticks, it's been a pin-bar puppet show for seven consecutive days. On 9/22, a long bearish candle -5.31% pressed down to the $0.20 level; on 9/23, it touched the weekly low of $0.1968 then recovered; on 9/24, a volume surge rebound +4.76% pushed to $0.2266; on 9/25, a low-volume small bullish candle feigned recovery; Saturday saw a slow decline -2.52%, giving back most gains. Yesterday, the script completely unraveled: the morning session saw a steady decline with a pin-bar down to $0.2068, followed by an hourly candle$GRAM short positions close below 1.6, continue opening shorts above 1.7And now? I just bought again. At this point, it feels like $ONE and I are in a personal war. 😭 【My Account Is Getting Crushed】 I checked the weekly P&L and honestly didn't know whether to laugh or cry: • 7-day P&L: -¥4,680 • Current balance: ¥15,920 • Down more than ¥4,000 from my recent account peak And a huge chunk of that damage came from $ONE. Yesterday, my long got stopped out after another loss of more than ¥1,000. The worst part? Not long after I closed it, $ONE suddenly ripped toward 0.afternoon crypto check.
$BTC is still around $84K, with $ETH near $2.7K and $SOL around $121.
What catches my eye is the money flow:
➤ Spot BTC ETFs pulled in about $2.4B last week
➤ ETH ETFs added roughly $690M
➤ Solana funds hit a record $86.7M daily inflow
Capital is starting to find its way back into crypto.
I’m watching structure first, narrative second.
No FOMO. No forced entries. Let price confirm.As usual, a quick look at the balance before bed～
BTC bounced back from 82630 to 83300, ETH at 2675. I’m watching OKX and feel a bit relieved, but I’m not celebrating too early. Last night, Trump's news about Hormuz hit 82630, causing a lot of floating losses on long positions. At least now it’s recovered a bit, and hasn’t continued to crash down.
I scanned the order book; the buy orders around 83300 aren’t aggressive, but the selling pressure isn’t as heavy as before, indicating most panicThe article published by BlackRock institutions is actually very clear: they are optimistic about crypto in the long term, but currently the chips are not enough to make regulators open the back door. It's enough to squeeze out a big player like MicroStrategy.
Unless MicroStrategy changes its business model to create more benefits for the US, this vehicle is not qualified to get on the road.$CORE
Why can't staking nodes be opened? The fundamental reason is the deep-rooted problem caused by the hard fork upgrade (most important).
After the emergency hard fork at the end of August this year to fix the validator over-minting vulnerability, the underlying logic of the staking contract was greatly changed. The old staking proxy contract PledgeAgent.sol has been deprecated and fully migrated to the new contracts StakeHub and CoreAgent.sol.
This has led to three types of frequent failures:
1) The official staking DApp frontend code adaptation is not fully in place, causing occasional page anomalies: white screen, empty validator list, staking balance showing 0, delegation button unresponsive. Many users on overseas forums have continuously reported this bug. The project team has intermittently fixed it but has not completely resolved it.
2) The webpage can be opened and the wallet connected, but the staking, undelegation, and reward claim buttons are unresponsive, and transaction submissions fail. This is a frontend and new contract adaptation bug, not an issue with your wallet.
3) Some old third-party staking sites are completely obsolete and have become totally invalid after the hard fork.
On the already fragile core chain, staking must be done with extreme caution!$ETH outperformed BTC by 6.72%. YTD it is still down 10.57%, but outperforming on the monthly chart is already a good signal.
However, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new weekly low today. This indicates that ETH's recent gains are more of a follow-up to BTC rather than an independent rally. Market preference for ETH has not truly recovered. Coupled with the continuous decline in gas revenue from Ethereum L2, ETH's fundamental story is still progressing slowly.
What’s more critical is the risk of delay in the Pectra upgrade. The development team has been repeatedly revising the EIP recently, and the market has lowered the probability of a Q4 launch to below 60%. If delayed, institutional holding confidence will be affected.
A deeper issue is the structural problem of institutional buying. Although yesterday ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $144 million, BlackRock alone took the lion’s share, while the net inflow from other issuers combined was less than $20 million. When one player dominates, the market worries about the "vulnerability of concentrated holdings."
The value-for-money range is between 2580 and 2620. ETH is suitable for grid trading rather than chasing gains; rhythm matters more than direction. ETH’s recent market moves have always been slow to heat up and quick to cool down. Every time it seems to take off, it gets doused with cold water, and this time is very likely no exception. BTC smashed down to 82557 on Monday, wiping out the rebound from 85200 over the weekend in just one day.
Yesterday's low was 83818, the high was 85200, and it closed at 84465. Today it opened near 84465, reached a high of 85000, a low of 82557, and the current price is about 82965. Volume increased from 283 million to between 489 million and 562 million, indicating a volume-driven decline.
Resistance remains between 85000 and 85200 above; only beyond that is 87283 to 87399. If 82557 below breaks again, it’s likely to first test 80588; if that level also fails, the short term could drop to 80133 to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 82965 can hold. If it can’t hold, treat it as an accelerated digestion coming down from 87399, and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 82557 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and see if 85000 can be surpassed before considering entry; don’t catch a falling knife in midair. $BTC ETH opened lower on Monday, and the low point at 2636 swallowed the weekend rebound at 2724.
Yesterday's low was 2664, the high was 2724, and it closed at 2690. Today it opened near 2690, with a high of 2704 and a low of 2636, current price around 2667. Volume increased from 152 million to between 378 million and 444 million, indicating a volume-driven pullback.
Resistance remains between 2704 and 2724 above; further up is 2789 to 2808. If 2636 breaks below, it’s likely to first test 2628; if that level also fails, the short term could drop to 2564 to find support.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 2667 can hold. If it doesn’t hold, consider it as an accelerated digestion from the drop from 2808, and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 2636 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and consider only if it fails to break above 2704; don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $ETH Liquidation Map: Downside Risks Still Outweigh Upside Opportunities
Direction Trigger Level Liquidation Intensity
Downside Longs Break below 80,516 $1.047 billion
Upside Shorts Break above 88,520 $985 million
The liquidation intensity of downside longs remains slightly higher than that of upside shorts, but the gap has significantly narrowed compared to before. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $192 million, with long and sh.$BTC #MicronEarningsAhead Order Book Strength Ranking
$SOON Sell-side orders dominate, buy-side below is thin: 1% sell orders above total $112,300, 1% buy orders below total $45,700; the amount of sell orders above is about 2.46 times that of buy orders below.
$USELESS Buy-side orders dominate, sell-side above is thin: 1% sell orders above total $59,800, 1% buy orders below total $85,700; the amount of buy orders below is about 1.43 times that of sell orders above.
$SNDK Buy and sell sides have relatively balanced depth: 1% sell orders above total $6.25M, 1% buy orders below total $5.01M. The amounts on both sides are close, and this snapshot alone does not show a clear buy or sell advantage.📉 The market dropped? The non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet, don't blame it recklessly
No. The September non-farm payrolls will be announced this Friday (October 2), so today's drop can't be attributed to it.
The last real surprise was the August non-farm payrolls: an increase of 162,000, while the expectation was only about 56,000, nearly three times higher. That day, US Treasury yields rose, the probability of a rate hike jumped, and BTC dropped from above 81,000 to below 80,000 on the same day. That shot has already been fired.
Today's drop looks more like "proactive position reduction before data week."
1 The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5.1%, near the highest level since 2007. With a higher risk-free rate, non-yielding risk assets naturally get squeezed.
2 CME pricing shows about a 68% chance of another rate hike in October, with expectations for a second hike in December. The last hike was just on September 16, and the market is already preparing for the next one.
3 August PCE will be released this Wednesday (September 30), and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday. The expectation for September is an increase of about 80,000–100,000, a clear slowdown from August, but as long as it doesn't collapse, it offers limited help to the "higher for longer" narrative.
4 In the past 24 hours, long liquidations were about $209 million, twice that of shorts. Leverage dies first, then spot follows.
Let's clear up one misconception:
Don't attribute every drop to "non-farm payrolls missing expectations." Making up cause and effect before the data is out can lead to wrong positions and adding on the actual release day. August was a surprise downside; September data isn't out yet. Today's drop is just the combination of yields, rate hike expectations, and leverage liquidation.
BTC has been hovering around 83,000 this week, with a total market cap of about 2.82 trillion USD, down more than two points from Sunday's peak. This is not a crash narrative, but a reduction before data week.
What you really need to watch is not "whether it dropped," but how the 10-year Treasury yield and October rate hike probability move after Friday's numbers land. Weak data and easing rates could loosen risk assets; strong data and high rates will likely test around 82,000 again.
Are you positioning yourself based on "data already out" or waiting on "data not yet out"?
$BTC $ETH $OKB 🔥The crypto world gave everyone another lesson today: the real big risks often lie outside the crypto space.
🌍After Trump rejected the Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz has once again become a market focus, oil prices have risen, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to around 5.2%.
📉Risk assets like BTC and ETH are naturally feeling the pressure.
Because the market is no longer trading on "whether a certain coin will rise or not," but rather:
Will energy prices continue to rise?
Will inflation re-emerge?
Can the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates later?
💣Once the market starts betting again on "high interest rates lasting longer," valuations of risk assets will naturally be suppressed.
📅So don’t just focus on the charts going forward.
Wednesday’s PCE and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls are two key points I will be watching closely. The official US calendar shows the September employment report will be released on October 2, while PCE-related data is scheduled for September 30.
⚠️Add in the variable of US-Iran tensions, and it’s probably not so easy for BTC and ETH to completely shake off macro influences in the short term.
🧠The market is never just about looking at candlesticks.
Yesterday you were studying support and resistance, today you suddenly realize that what might be deciding prices are crude oil and US Treasuries.
This is what makes the crypto market so headache-inducing.
Do you think this correction will continue, or will it pull back after the news calms down? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The hottest topic in the community today: Someone officially proposed on GitHub to cut Dogecoin's block reward from 10,000 to 1,000, reducing inflation from 3.2% per year directly down to 0.3%. A community vote is expected later this year.
When I was on my way home tonight, pushing my bike across an overpass, I stopped and looked at my phone three times, my hands trembling a bit. It wasn’t fear, but the excitement of "after waiting so many years, someone is finally doing something serious." 🔥Didn't check the news for a day, almost thought BTC and ETH were dumped by someone again.
But then I saw the news: wow, it turns out the US-Iran situation is causing trouble again.
🌍Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices immediately rose, and the 10-year US Treasury yield also climbed to around 5.2%.
💰What does this mean for risk assets?
The market is once again worried about inflation pressure caused by rising energy prices.
And once inflation rises again, the market will worry that the Fed's room for rate cuts is limited.
📉So BTC and ETH are under pressure, and the logic is not complicated at all.
The real trouble is: this matter is not over yet.
🚨Next, focus on two things.
First, whether the US-Iran situation eases.
Second, whether US economic data can give the market a breather.
📊PCE will be released this Wednesday, and the September employment report on Friday, both are key data the market is watching.
⚡If oil prices keep rising, yields keep pushing up, and economic data leans toward high inflation/strong employment, then pressure on risk assets may continue.
So don't just look at the candlesticks now.
Sometimes behind a big bearish candle, it's not technicals but the whole macro pricing that's changing.
Did you guys hold through this wave? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件