#WalshPolicyFramework

🌃 Jackson Hole trước thềm｜Will Walsh hawkish hay dovish? Tối nay 20:30, dữ liệu PCE tháng 7 của Mỹ sẽ được công bố trước; thứ Sáu Walsh sẽ xuất hiện. Lạm phát và tín hiệu chính sách có thể sẽ lại tác động đến thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ, vàng và tiền mã hóa. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Mời bạn nhấp vào chủ đề để xem thêm thông tin liên quan, cùng thảo luận: bạn dự đoán Walsh sẽ phát tín hiệu diều hâu hay bồ câu? 📊 Muốn theo dõi diễn biến thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ? OKX hiện đã ra mắt $SPY, $QQQ, theo sát biến động thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ, không bỏ lỡ cơ hội giao dịch từ các bài phát biểu của ngân hàng trung ương.

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

PCE → JACKSON HOLE: BTC & ETH AT A CROSSROADS U.S. July PCE came in at 3.7% YoY, while core PCE held at 3.3%, keeping Fed policy in focus ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. For $BTC, holding around $78K despite inflation shows resilience, but hawkish guidance could pressure risk assets. $ETH near $2.5K remains comparatively strong. Meanwhile, the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets offers clearer capital-raising pathways, strengthening crypto’s institutional narrative.

US PCE data is out and the overall reading came in stronger than expected. Core PCE stayed flat while personal spending and durable goods orders beat forecasts. The US economy remains resilient, but inflation isn’t cooling fast enough weakening hopes for rapid rate cuts. For gold this is short-term bearish favoring choppy pressure. For $BTC and $ETH there’s no major bullish catalyst. Delayed rate cut expectations could keep the market volatile and range bound #PCEToJacksonHole

BTC’s next move may come down to one speech — not the PCE data. PCE gave the market numbers, but no clear direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY, GDP stayed at 1.5%, and rate expectations barely changed after the initial reaction. Now the spotlight shifts to Friday. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair could set the tone for rates, inflation, liquidity and the dollar. #DailyOrbit

PCE HOT — BTC STILL BELOW $80K July PCE held at 3.7% YoY, while core PCE stayed at 3.3%, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Attention now shifts to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, where any hawkish signal could pressure risk assets. $BTC is trading around $79.5K after briefly topping $80K, while $ETH holds near $2.5K. $SOL remains a key altcoin to watch as capital rotates. A dovish tone could revive momentum; a hawkish surprise may trigger renewed profit-taking.

The market isn’t really waiting for a particular candlestick pattern—it’s waiting for one thing: Warsh’s words. We’re currently in a classic “event pre-vacuum” phase: liquidity is relatively thin, BTC and ETH rallies are quickly met with selling, while #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

PCE TONIGHT — BUT THE FED’S RESPONSE MATTERS MORE July PCE drops at 8:30 PM, but the headline figure alone won’t tell the full story. For $BTC and $ETH, the bigger focus is whether the data changes expectations for future rate cuts. 1️⃣ PCE in line with forecasts → likely more sideways action as traders wait for Powell. 2️⃣ Cooler-than-expected PCE → could strengthen rate-cut expectations and give risk assets another boost. #PCEToJacksonHole #BTC80KHoldOrFold #AIEarningsWatch

PCE and Nvidia earnings could bring major volatility tonight. 📊 Soft PCE: bullish for crypto Hot PCE: possible $BTC /$SOL correction BTC & $SOL : near major resistance → avoid chasing Strategy: take partial profits, keep spot exposure, and wait for stronger support before adding longs. #PCEToJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM

#WarshAtJacksonHole risk may be giving markets too much clarity. Once Warsh lays out what inflation, jobs or growth would trigger a hike, every data release becomes easier to trade against that framework. That could mean sharper moves in yields, the dollar and BTC whenever numbers surprise. Markets say they want predictability, but a clear Fed reaction function can also make macro data more powerful. Jackson Hole may reduce policy uncertainty while increasing event volatility

PCE SUPPORTS FED HOLD FOR NOW Capital Economics says July’s core PCE increase is unlikely to trigger a Fed rate hike in September. However, with annual core inflation at 3.3% and economic growth remaining resilient, the firm believes higher rates may eventually be necessary. For now, the data strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady. $BSB