#BTCOptionsExpiryTest

$BTC & $ETH WHY THE MARKET IS STUCK AT THE TOP Bitcoin keeps struggling around $80K while Ethereum repeatedly fails to clear $2.55K. At first glance, it looks like simple resistance. But the bigger picture suggests something more interesting is happening. The market is currently caught between heavy supply, uncertain macro conditions, reduced leverage and overheated momentum. $BTC — TOO MUCH SUPPLY ABOVE The $80K–$82K region is becoming a serious supply zone. A large amount of Bitcoin changed hands around these prices during the recent recovery. For many holders, this is close to their cost basis. When BTC returns to those levels, some investors don't necessarily think about taking profits. They simply want to get back to breakeven. That creates natural selling pressure. The same issue becomes even more interesting when ETF holders are considered. If the cost basis of spot ETF exposure is also concentrated around the same region, two different sources of supply can become active at roughly the same time. That helps explain why Bitcoin can push toward $80K, attract attention, and then repeatedly struggle to establish acceptance above it. Above that zone, another important supply area sits around $84K–$85K. So BTC needs more than a quick wick higher. It needs enough genuine demand to absorb the sellers waiting overhead. THE SHORT-SQUEEZE FUEL IS FADING The earlier rally had another major source of momentum: forced buying. Billions in short positions were liquidated as Bitcoin accelerated higher. That created a powerful feedback loop. Shorts were closed. Price moved higher. More shorts were liquidated. Price moved even higher. But that fuel doesn't last forever. Once the crowded shorts are gone, Bitcoin needs a new source of demand. That's where the current market is being tested. Can spot buyers replace the momentum that previously came from liquidations? ETF inflows have been constructive, but derivatives positioning has cooled considerably. That's not necessarily bearish. In fact, a reduction in leverage can be healthy.

Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, with market panic driven more by the drop from $81,250 than by any substantial trend reversal. In my view, this is more like a natural rotation after a sharp rise; the weekly level has just stabilized above $80,000, and funds have not exited. Last week, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $2.2 billion, maintaining positive inflows for seven consecutive days, indicating clear #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

Bitcoin Is Holding $80K. But The Next Move Depends On More Than Price. $BTC is back around the $80K area after reaching roughly $81.3K earlier this week. At first glance, the market still looks strong. But this is no longer just a Bitcoin price story. The next move could depend on two major forces: Institutional demand. And macro liquidity. 🟠 BITCOIN $BTC has been one of the strongest performers during the latest market recovery. But the $80K area is becoming an important psychological level. If Bitcoin can turn $80K into support, the market could gain confidence for another move higher. If it repeatedly gets rejected, traders may start taking profits after the recent rally. That is why I’m watching the reaction around this level rather than simply chasing the breakout. And there is another factor today. Around $6.4B worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire, with the settlement landing on the same day as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. That combination could create significant short-term volatility. 🏦 INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND The institutional side of the market remains interesting. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $242M of inflows on August 27, extending the streak to nine consecutive sessions. That means the recent BTC rally is not being driven by price momentum alone. There is still meaningful capital entering through regulated investment products. And Ethereum is showing a similar trend. $ETH ETFs have also recorded a prolonged streak of inflows, suggesting institutional demand is spreading beyond Bitcoin. That is important because healthy market expansion usually requires more than one asset to attract capital. $BTC can lead. $ETH can follow. Then liquidity can move deeper into higher-beta assets. ⚡ THE SOLANA SIGNAL One of the clearest examples right now is $SOL. Solana has been outperforming several major assets during the latest move, while institutional products linked to SOL have also attracted fresh capital. #WalshPolicyFramework #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #IranOpensHormuzLane

$BTC SOMETIMES THE BEST SIGNAL IS WHAT BITCOIN DOES AFTER THE SELLERS ARRIVE Bitcoin doesn't need another explosive candle to prove strength. After the rejection around $80K and the sharp move lower, the market is now entering a more important phase: absorption. The easy part of the rally was the squeeze. The harder part is finding out whether real buyers are willing to defend higher prices after leverage has been cleaned out. That's why I'm watching the next few sessions differently. $BTC

$BTC SOMETIMES THE BEST SIGNAL IS WHAT BITCOIN DOES AFTER THE SELLERS ARRIVE Bitcoin doesn't need another explosive candle to prove strength. After the rejection around $80K and the sharp move lower, the market is now entering a more important phase: absorption. The easy part of the rally was the squeeze. The harder part is finding out whether real buyers are willing to defend higher prices after leverage has been cleaned out. That's why I'm watching the next few sessions differently. If BTC can hold the mid-$70K region, stabilize, and gradually reclaim $78K, it would suggest sellers are losing control rather than building a new downtrend. A recovery above $80K would then become much more meaningful because it would come after the market has already absorbed a wave of profit-taking and liquidations. But there is still a risk. If Bitcoin continues making lower highs and eventually loses the major support around $75K, the market could require a deeper reset before another sustained move higher. So I’m not trying to predict the exact bottom. I'm watching the reaction. Strong markets don't avoid corrections. They survive them. The next Bitcoin move will tell us whether $80K was simply temporary resistance or the level that needs to be reclaimed before the next expansion. For now: Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Let Bitcoin show its hand. $BTC

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

There’s one key BTC time point I’m watching closely today: 4 PM. ⏰ Around $6.4 billion in BTC options are set to expire at the same time. That’s a massive amount of positioning coming off the table and could bring some serious volatility. But there’s one thing I used to misunderstand about options expiry: #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #IranOpensHormuzLane

The options settlement is now behind us, but $BTC still failed to reclaim the $80K level. As the 4 PM deadline passed, Bitcoin remained around $79,417, while $ETH hovered near $2,490. I initially expected the settlement to provide a clear directional move, but instead, it seems to have reinforced the current range. That actually makes me more hesitant to short. The absence of strong downside momentum after settlement suggests lower-level support remains solid #WalshPolicyFramework

Tonight, Powell’s speech could set the market’s next direction. My bet is that he’ll continue to avoid giving a clear answer, with the real market bottom potentially not arriving until October. This afternoon, $6.4B worth of options expired. The 30-minute average price never reached $80,000, and there was no major sell-off either. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🚨 $BTC IS HOLDING $80K — WHAT’S NEXT? Bitcoin is near $80K after touching ~$81.3K. Key things to watch 👇 🟠 BTC: $80K holds = bullish. Rejection = possible profit-taking. 🏦 ETFs: BTC saw ~$242M inflows, with ETH also attracting capital. ⚡ Options: ~$6.4B expiry could bring volatility. 🟣 SOL: Strong momentum and growing institutional interest. Watch price + liquidity + ETF flows, not hype. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest